OCT atte atemelalelac lies

probability Daniel Kahneman (Nobel Prize winner in economic

science) and Amos Tversky (cognitive and mathe-
matical psychologist) spent decades collaborating
and researching together. Below is an adaptation of
Concepts one of the questions they set to students:
m Representation Two taxi companies operate in Mathcity: Blackcabs
Probability enables us to quantify the likelihood = Quantity and Yellowrides.
of events occurring and evaluate risk. This Microconcepts 85% of the cabs in the city work for Blackcabs and
chapter looks at the language of probability, how are coloured black.
= Uncertainty and random behaviour
to quantify probability and the basic tools you
need to solve problems involving probability. = Trial, outcome, equally likely outcomes and The rest of the cabs in the city work for Yellowrides
relative frequency and are coloured yellow.
m Sample space and event

How can a geneticist

= Theoretical probability
A taxi was involved in a hit and run accident at
night. A witness told police that the taxi involved Developing inquiry
m Venn diagrams, tree diagrams, sample was yellow. The court carried out a series of tests on .
quantify the chance that a space diagrams and tables of outcome the reliability of the witness, asking her to identify skills
child may inherit the same m= Compound events the colour of a random sequence of taxis. The Write down any similar inquiry questions you
colour of eyes as his father? m Exclusive, independent and dependent witness correctly identified each one of the two might ask if you were asked to predict the
events colours 80% of the time and failed 20% of the time. reliability of the witness if 50% of the cars in
the city were Yellowrides or if another taxi
1 What is the probability that the taxi involved in
the accident was yellow? company Blue Taxis also operated in Mathcity.

2 Karolina carries out a traffic survey in Mathcity. What questions might you need to ask in these
How can a lawyer make sure that scenarios?
She sits at an interchange and notes the colour
a jury understands evidence of the first six cabs that pass her. What number _ Think aboutthe questions in this opening problem
based on probabilities? of yellow cabs is she most likely to observe? and answer any you can. As you work through the
e What types of diagram can help represent the chapter, you will gain mathematical knowledge
problem? them all.
and skills that will help you to answer
e What assumptions did you make?

Before you start

Click here for help
You should know how to: Skills check with this skills check

1 Find simple probabilities. 1 Anumber is chosen at random from the set

{1,2,4, 5,9, 10,11, 16, 17,25, 26,27}
eg A number is chosen at random from the
set of natural numbers {1, 2, 3, ..., 100}. Find the probability that the number is:
Find the probability of choosing a cube a prime b odd c asquare number.
number.
The cube numbers in the set are 1, 8, 27 2 A student collects this data:
“32% chance of rain tomorrow.” and 6 Probability of a cube number SNe
How can you reach a common = —
100 =0.04 Male 12 4?
agreement on how to interpret
Female 6 51
and apply statements like this?
A person is chosen at random from the
survey. Find the probability that they are:
a female b amale smoker
¢ anon-smoker.

204 205
 QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTY: PROBABILITY 5.1
5.1 Reflecting on experiences Experimental probability
You should use these terms when discussing and quantifying
in the world of chance. First probabilities:

steps in the quantification of Experiment: A process by which you obtain an observation.

probabilities Trials: Repeating an experiment a number of times.

Probability is synonymous with uncertainty, likelihood, chance Outcome: A possible result of an experiment.
and possibility. You can quantify probability through three main TOK
Event: An outcome or set of outcomes.
approaches: subjective, experimental and theoretical. Do you rely on intuition
to help you make Sample space: The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment, always
You may judge that you are more likely to get to school on time if denoted by U.
decisions?
you take a particular route, based on your experience with traffic.
Subjective probabilities are based on past experiences and opinions
rather than formal calculations. These terms are illustrated in the following example:
Near
Erin wants to explore the probability of throwing a prime number mindedness
Investigation 1 with an octahedral die. She designs an experiment that she feels is =
efficient and bias-free. Erin places the die in a cup, shakes it, turns the Probability theory was
We use subjective probability in everyday life every time we make a cup upside down, then reads and records the number thrown. first studied to increase
judgement of how likely something is to occur. For example, you may judge the chances of winning
that you are more likely to get to school on time if you take a particular route, Erin repeats her experiment until she has completed 50 trials. She when gambling, The
based on your experience with traffic. We justify subjective probabilities to knows that the outcome of each trial can be any number from Paninctreritan
U=({1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8} and that the event she is exploring can be the subject was by
ourselves through a mixture of past experiences, opinions and intuition.
described as a statement: “throw a prime with an octahedral die” or a enone he meneran
How likely do you judge these outcomes to be? set of outcomes that make the statement true: {2, 3, 5,7}. Girclama Canlenennihel
A: There willbe a financial — B: It will rain C: There will be a finan- Erin can either write P(throw a prime) to represent the probability of 16th century.
crisis in Europe during the | tomorrow. cial crisis in Asia during her event occurring or P(A) if A denotes the set {2, 3, 5,7}.
next 10 years. the next 10 years. 2Py
—4
D: Choosing one digit at E: The world will F: The sequence 999999 g
HINT
random from the decimal be free ofalldic- _ is found somewhere in &
expansion of 1 you get 6. tators within the the first 1000 digits of pi. Acrucial assumption in many rs5
6 next 10 years. problems is that of equally a
G: The team winning the H: Humans will |: If you cuta strip of likely outcomes.
FIFA World Cup in 2030 will land on Mars by paper into three lengths
Aconsequence of the
be from the Americas. 2050. at random, they can form
geometry of the shapes shown
a triangle.
here is that they form fair dice.
Display your answers by plotting them on this probability scale: Each outcome ona fair die is
equally likely as any other.
0 05 1
(impossible (ust as likely (certain to
to occur) to occur as not) occur)
One way to quantify probability is with relative frequency, also known as
Compare, contrast, discuss and justify your answers within a small group. experimental probability. The general formula for the relative frequency
You may find disagreements with others, based on your opinions, experience of an event A after x trials is:
or beliefs. Frequency of occurrence of event A in 1 trials
When is it easier to reach a common agreement on the value ofa subjective Relative frequency of A= n
probability?
This is also known as the experimental probability of the event A.
Theoretical probability gives you a way to quantify probability that does
not require carrying out a large number of trials.
 QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTY: PROBABILITY 5.1

The formula for the theoretical probability P(A) of an event

A is: 5
3 Show that for this experiment, P(A) = I = 0.417. Add a horizontal line with equation y= 0.417 to
P(A) = n(A)
——
where n(A) is the number of outcomes that make A happen
nU) your graph. Press F9 (spreadsheet) or Ctrl+R (TiNspire) to carry out another 100 trials.
and n(U) is the number of outcomes in the sample space. 4 Repeat until you have seen each of these three scenarios:
Whenever P(A) represents a subjective, experimental or theoretical © The experimental probability is always greater than the theoretical probability.
probability, then 0 <P(A) <1.
© The experimental probability is always less than the theoretical probability.
© The experimental probability is often equal to the theoretical probability.
You may wish to adapt your spreadsheet so that it carries out 1000 trials. Examine the columns in your
Investigation 2 spreadsheet and the features on your graph.

1 Imagine throwing a fair 12-sided die 15 times. Let A be the event “throw a prime number”. 5 (EEE Whats the set of all possible values of theoretical probabilities?

2 Use technology to show the sequence of experimental probabilities ofA after 1, 2,3, ..., 100 throws. You 6 What relationship does your graph have with the line y = 22
should be able to create a graph like one of these: ? (ZETE) Whatis the relationship between relative frequency and theoretical probability in the short
term?
12-sided dice: experimental and theoretical probabilities (100 trials)
1 8 (ECE Whatis the relationship between relative frequency and theoretical probability in the long
0.9
term?
0.8
0.7 9 GIy In the short term, does random behaviour involve predictability or unpredictability?
0.6
05 10 Gracy In the long term, does random behaviour involve predictability or unpredictability?
0.4
0.3 11 GIy How may we interpret and apply the number quantified by the formula for the theoretical
0.2 probability of an event?
0.1
0
0 20 40 60 80 100

Example 4 2Py
Frequency of occurrence —4
Number of trial (72) Outcome Event inntrials Find the probability of each event and determine which event is least likely. g
T: throw a factor of 24 on a four-sided die. &
1 2 Prime 1 1 rs5
2 11 Prime 2 1 O: throw a prime on an eight-sided die. a
3 5 Prime 3 lL D: throw at least 11 on a 12-sided die.
4 9 Not prime 3 0.75 C: throw at most 3 on a three-sided die.
5 4 Not prime 3 0.6 I: throw a multiple of 5 on a 20-sided die.
6 2 Prime 4 0.666667 All the dice are fair and are numbered from 1 up to the number of sides on the die.
2 4 Not prime 4 0.571429
n(T) =n({1,2,3,4}) =4=n(U) Every element of {1,2, 3,4} is a factor of 24.
8 8 Not prime 4 0.5
so P(T) =1 pr) = 0) 4), so Tis certain to
9 2 Prime 5 0.555556
nU) 4
10 12 Not prime 5 0.5 happen.
et 6 Not prime 5 0.454545
n(O) = n({2,3,5,7})
=4, n(U) =8
12 4 Not prime 5 0.416667
4
ie, 4 Not prime 5 0.416667 0)=—=0.
so P(O) 3 0.5

14 3 Prime 6 0.428571
n(D) = n({11,12}) = 2, n(U) = 12 “at least 11” means “11 or more”
a5) 14 Prime 7 0.466667
Continued on next page
 QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTY: PROBABILITY 5 ° 1

© Ifa dart lands in a numbered sector atrandom, 5 Take a narrow strip of paper 20cm long.
2 1 . find the probability that the number is: Use your calculator to generate a random
so P(D) = D6” 0.16 a atleast 4 b more than 6 decimal length between 0 and 20 and cut
a » “ » the strip into two strips at this length. Label
m(C) = n({1, 2, 3}) = 3, n(U) = 6 at most 3” means “3 or less © less than 30 : no more than 14 the two strips H and T. Toss a coin. If the
so P(C) = BE 0.5 & prime . square coin shows heads choose strip H. Measure
6 g a solution to the equation x? = 3. its length and use your calculator to find a
n(I) = n({5, 10, 15, 20}) = 4, n(I) =20 3 A survey was carried out in a small city place to cut it at random into two strips.
A centre street one Saturday afternoon. Can you make a triangle with your three
so P(I) = — = 0.25 Shoppers were asked about how they pieces?
20 travelled that day. The results are shown
Hence, D is the least likely event. in the table below. ee -

Mode of transport Car Bus Foot

Mal 40 59 37
Just as theoretical probability gives you a way to predict long-term behaviour ae
of relative frequency, a simple rearrangement gives you a way to predict Female 33 41 29
how many times an event is likely to occur in a given number of trials. One shopper is randomly selected.
a Find the probability that this shopper Make a guess on the probability scale as to
Example 2 TOK travelled by car. how likely it is that a triangle can be formed
oO le sh . domly selected following this process. Use your classmates
a A fair coin is flipped 14 times. Predict the average number of Play the game ofthe St b nd whe soe bik then thy se ot ee. results to quantify the experimental
times you expect a head to be face up. Petersburg Paradox and ho u wae i ah, ‘ a is male probability.
decidehi h shopper travelle: oot. . woe aan
b Statistical data built up over 5 years shows that the probability swt, en e c aoe hi . wh t . 6 A health professional is investigating the
of a student being absent at a school is 0.05. There are 531 laa Shoppers visit the town in one theoretical probability that a randomly
students in the school. game. week. Estimaye tne number of shoppers chosen female smokes is 0.17. She organ-
who by bus.
travelled . ‘d asks 11278 females if
Predict th etd h: miolbeabeent an izes a survey and asks ‘males i
pect ' Fane = stu es at you expect to be absent on 4 A personal identification number (PIN) they smoke or not. Using her theoretical
any given day and interpret your answer. consists of four digits. Consider the probability, determine the number of my
¢ State the assumptions supporting your answer for part b. PIN 0005 equal to the number 5, ete. Find females she would predict to be smokers. 2
the probability that a PIN number is: ? A multiple-choice
Pp! test consists of 10 q questions. A8
a 14x0.5=7 The expected number of
. . occurrences is n P(A) a equal to 0000 Each question has five answers. Only one of »
Seven heads are expected. . b less than 8000 and more than 7900 the answers is correct. For each question, Jose Es
b 531 x0.05 = 26.55. So, Note that 26.55 students ¢ divisible by 10 randomly chooses one of the five answers.
around 26 or 27 students cannot actually be absent. d atleast 13. Predict the expected number of questions Jose
are expected to be absent. answers correctly.
c This assumes that absences
on all days of the year are
equally likely.
Developing inquiry skills
Exercise 5A There are four outcomes in the first opening scenario:
e Ataxi is yellow and is identified as yellow.
1 A letter is picked at random from the letters
e Ataxi is yellow and is identified as black.
of RANDOM. Calculate the probability that
it is a letter from MATHS. e Ataxi is black and is identified as yellow.

2 This dartboard has 20 sectors each of equal 0 ENISEEENcislisieiniitestze

area. Are these equally likely outcomes?
In 1000 trials, how many occurrences of
each outcome would you expect?
 QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTY: PROBABILITY 5.2
5.2 Representing combined Example 3
probabilities with diagrams In a class survey, Rikardo, Malena, Daniel, Maria, India and James reported that they study
environmental systems and societies (ESS). India, Pietro, Mathea and Haneen said that they
You have taken the first steps in the quantification of probabilities, study geography (G). Rikardo and James were the only ones who reported that they studied
experienced random experiments and investigated how to make Spanish (S) whereas Sofia and Yulia studied none of the subjects mentioned in the survey.
predictions in the world of chance by application of formulae. Draw the data in a Venn diagram.
Probability situations themselves have a structure that you can
represent in different ways, for example in problems where two or U Each set is represented by a italic capital
more sets are combined in some way. letter.
U represents the entire sample space. In set
Investigation 3 terminology, this is called the universal set.

1 Foreach situation, think about how best to represent the situation with a diagram.
Compare and contrast your diagrams with others in your class then solve the problems.
Situation 1 U This diagram can be simplified to show the
G number of students in each region.
Inaclass survey on subject choices, Isabel, Clara, Coco, Anastasiia and Fangyu all state that they study
biology. Isabel, Clara, Fangyu and Tomas all study chemistry whereas Barbora, Coco and Achille study
neither biology nor chemistry. ESS

2 Find the probability that a student chosen randomly from this class studies both biology and chemistry. 2
3 Create your own probability question using your representation of the situation and have another
student answer it.
4 Situation 2
6
One example of a Sicherman die is a fair cubical die with this net:
4)1/5 Example 4
Itis thrown together with a fair octahedral die whose faces are numbered
1,2,3,4,5,6,7 and 8. 3 Use the Venn diagram in Example 3 to find the probabilities that a student chosen randomly
from this class:
5 Find the probability that the number obtained by adding the two numbers thrown on each die is prime.
a studies ESS b studies ESS but not Spanish
6 Find and describe a pattern in your representation of this situation and acquire some knowledge from
¢ studies all three subjects d_ studies exactly two of the subjects.
your pattern.
Canny
7 What advantages are there in using a diagram in problem-solving with combined n(ESS) _2+3+1_ 6 P(ESS) represents the “Probability of choosing
probabilities? a P(ESS) = n(U) = V1 =—ll A
a student dom
at random fi from the
h set ESS”.-

Two frequently used representations of probability problems are Venn b 4+ There are a total of four students within the
diagrams and sample space diagrams. International- ll ESS oval but outside the Spanish oval.
mindedness
“ c 0 The diagram clearly shows that there are no
Awell-known French students who study all three subjects.
AVenn diagram represents the sample space with a rectangle. Within the
gambler, Chevalier
rectangle, each eventis represented by a set of outcomes ina circle or an
de Méré, consulted qd — The diagram clearly shows that two
oval shape and is labelled accordingly.
Blaise Pascal in Paris students Rikardo and James study Spanish
in 1650 with questions and ESS, whereas one student India -
about some games of studies both geography and ESS. These are
~
chance. Pascal began the only three students who study exactly
A sample space diagram is a useful way to represent the whole sample space to correspond with his two of the subjects surveyed.
and often takes the form of a table. friend Pierre de Fermat
about these problems,
which began their
study of probability.
 QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTY: PROBABILITY

Example 5 cise 5B

It is claimed that when this pair of Sicherman dice is thrown 1 Alex throws a fair tetrahedral (four-sided) a Find the probability that a student
2 6
and the two numbers obtained added together, the probability dice and a fair octahedral (eight-sided) selected at random from this class studies
of each total is just the same as if the two dice were numbered | 4 2| 1| 3 8 | 4/1) 5 dice. He defines M as the product of his two both biology and history.
with 1,2,3,4,5 and 6. Verify this claim. 3 3 numbers. Find: b Given that a randomly selected student
a P(M is odd) b P(Mis prime) studies biology, find the probability that
Sample space diagram for the total of two Form a sample space diagram for each this student also studies history.
¢ P(M is both odd and prime)
die numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6: experiment. Enter each total in the table as
Bethany has two fair six-sided dice, which These dice compete in the “Dice World
shown.
Sees she throws. She defines N as the product of Cup”. A pair of dice is thrown and the
her numbers. Find: highest number wins. The semi-finals are
1)/2;3/)4/5/]6)]2
A vs B and C vs D. The winners of each
2;3/4{|,5/;6|27/8 d P(Nisodd) e P(Nis more than 13)
semi-final go in to the final.
3/4/5|;6/;7|]8/9 f P(Nisa factor of 36)
Bethany and Alex can see that the proba-

felelelsielelel=
4/5|6/?7)8)]9 | 40
bility that M is odd equals the probability
5|6/?7| 8] 9 | 40} 11
that N is odd. Try to find more events that
0] [3]3

w
6| 7/8 | 9} 10| 11} 12 have the same probabilities for each of their
Sample space diagram for the two experiments. Find at least one such event.
Sicherman dice: 2 Asurvey of 127 consumers found that 81
4 | 2) 2| 8), 8 |e had a tablet computer, 70 had a smartphone
and 29 had both a smartphone and a tablet 2| [s]5

oa
1/2/;3/);3/)4/]4/]5 computer.
3/;4;5;5|6)]6)?
a Find the number of consumers surveyed Construct sample space diagrams to find the
4;/5/6/;6/7/7)/8 who had neither a smartphone nor a probabilities of the outcomes of each semi-final.
mm 6 | 7 {| 7}|s|{s{9g9 tablet.
The dice in the previous question are called
6|/7;|8]8|9/] 9| 10 b Find the probability that when choosing non-transitive dice. Show that A is likely to 2Py
one of the consumers surveyed at beat B, that B is likely to beat C and that C —4
8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11) 11) 12 g
random, a consumer who has only a is likely to beat A. You may wish to explore
1 smartphone is chosen. &
In both tables, P(T= 2) = P(T= 12) = 36 Then find the probability of each outcome in the meaning of the term transitive and try to rs5
the sample space, representing the total as T. ¢ Ina population of 10000 consumers, design your own non-transitive dice. a
2 1 predict how many would have only a
( 3)
P(T= )=P( — =—
= P(T=11) = = 3671s Two cubical dice are rolled in a game. The
tablet computer. score is the greater of the two numbers.
3 Ina class of 20 students, 12 study biology, If the same number appears on both dice,
P(T=4) =P(T=10) = x a
12 15 study history and 2 students study then the score is that number. Find the
4 1 neither biology nor history. probability that the score is at most 4.
(
P(T=5) )=P(
=P(T=9) = = 3679
— =—

P(T=6) =P(T=8) = > State your conclusion.

Developing inquiry skills
36

and P(T=7) = © =1
36 6 In the first opening scenario, imagine 100 trials. How many are
outcomes would you expectin each area shown on this diagram? \
The probability of each total is the same for
each pair of dice, so the claim is true. Cab yellow?
Yes No
Once time has been invested in drawing a diagram, it can be used to mig 8 &% Yes 2?2? 2?2?
quantify many different probabilities. ee |
Do ethics play a role in =5 No 2? 2?
the use of mathematics?
 QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTY: PROBABILITY 5 ° 3

5.3 Representing combined ° d P(E|G) = a = i the probability Since it is given that G has occurred, oa
14+3 4’ the sample space is now G, not U.
probabilities with diagrams
that a randomly chosen student Uv The Dutch scientist
studies ESS given that he/she Christiaan
a nd formu lae studies geography. Huygens, a
In Section 5.2, you found probabilities by representing combined 1 1 teacher of Leibniz,
events in a sample space diagram or a Venn diagram. There are other However, P(G|E) = 24341 6 published the first
ways to find probabilities of combined events, which can add to your book on probability
problem-solving skills. These are not equal since the Only 1 student studies ESS and
in 1657.
In this section, you will use Venn diagrams to investigate and represent laws information given changes the sample geography, hence P(E|G) = i Notice
space. This example
t shows that 4
of probability and you will use these symbols, language and definitions:
SSSI Rae P(EIG) = P(GIE) is not generally true. 6
how this contrasts with P(Z) = rE
ymbol applie: informal a
Name to events language Caer cotion

Intersection ANB AandB EventsA and 8 both occur Just as areas of mathematics like trigonometry or sequences have
Union AUB AorB Events or B or both occur formulae, so does probability. In this investigation, you will consider
Complement A NotA EventA does not occur some relationships that you can generalize as laws of probability.
Ps . EventA given that 5 a
Sono nal AlB AgivenB event B has occurred Investigation 4
The following Venn diagrams represent how many students study art or biology in four different classes,
Example (5 using the sets A and B.
Fill in the probabilities for each Venn diagram and investigate your answers.
A student is chosen at random from this [yz
class. If E is the event “the student takes 6 tC 4 5 6 ? 8 9 10
ESS” and G is the event “the student | P(A) + P(B) P(AM B)
takes geography”, then find these A P(A) P(A) P(B) (ANB) P(AUB) P(A\B) P(A) +P(B) PLA) PCB) Tp) PB) P
probabilities and interpret what they =
mean: 2
a

a P(ENG)andP(GNE£) b P(EUG) and P(GU EZ) 7

c P(E’) d P(E|G) and P(G|)
1 Class of 2018
a P(ENG)= P(GO £) = — is the Only one student takes both ESS 7
- 11 and geography. This example
probability that a randomly chosen illustrates that EA G means \ B
student studies both ESS and exactly the same as G7 E. In fact 6
geography. this is always true. Class of 2017
24+34+14+3 9, ae
b P(EUG)=———— = — is the Similarly, E U G means the same as
ll 11 GUE hence P(E UG) = P(G U £) is
probability that a randomly chosen always true.
student studies ESS or geography or
both.

c P(E’)= = is the probability that a There are 5 students outside the ESS
yn, 6_5,
randomly chosen student does not oval. P(E’) = 1— ou is another
study ESS way to find the probability required. ©
Continued on next page
 QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTY: PROBABILITY 5.3
You can use the laws of probability to justify other statements.
Odsamine your results.
Answer these questions and discuss your answers in a group.

What relationship exists between the probabilities in columns 1 and 2? Example 7 @

Be

This relationship is true in general. Why? Marcelo is playing in a cricket match and a game of hockey at the weekend.
PWD

What relationship exists between the probabilities in columns 5 and 9? The probability that his team will win the cricket match is 0.2, and the probability of winning
This relationship is true in general. Why? the hockey match is 0.6. Assume that the results in the matches are independent.

What relationship exists between the probabilities in columns 6 and 10? a Find the probability that Marcelo’s team wins both matches.
Find the probability that Marcelo’s team wins the cricket match or the hockey
NOM

Gam Which Venn diagram shows “mutually exclusive events”, ie ones that cannot occur together?
match.
Gam Which Venn diagram shows “independent events”, ie events for which the outcome of one is c Determine if winning the cricket match and winning the hockey match are mutually
unaffected by the outcome of the other? exclusive. Justify your answer.
8 GIanny What is the difference between mutually exclusive and independent events? Can
- events be independent?
mutually exclusive A Why or why not? a P(COH)=0.2x0.6=0.12 Let C be the event “wins the cricket match”
y Pt i y and H be “wins the hockey match”.
Since you are given that C and H are inde-
>) pendent, you can use P(C4 H) = P(C) x P(A).
For events
A and B, the following laws apply: b P(CUH) =0.2+ 0.6 - 0.12 = 0.68 Apply the formula.
¢ P(AUB)=P(A)+P(A) -P(AN B) ¢ Cand Hare not mutually exclusive Write a complete and clear reason.
© P(AIB) = a because P(CO H) #0.

e This can be rearranged to give the multiplicative law of probabilities:

P(A A B) =P(AB)P(B).
Two events A and B are mutually exclusive if they cannot both occur. Hence: Example 8 @ rm
a
¢ Knowing that A has occurred means you know that B cannot, and that Let H and G be events such that P(H) = J P(G)= 2 and P(H UG) = Jk Ey
knowing
that B occurs means you know that A cannot. 3 7 21 fF
© P(ANB)=P(BO A) =0 Find P(H 4 G) and P(H|G) and hence, determine if H and G are independent. 2
o
© P(AUB)=P(A)+P(B) COED Are - ;
Two events A and B are independent if the occurrence of each event does complementary PUTO G) = P(H) + P(G) ~ PUT 6) Write down the appropriate formulay
not affect in any way the occurrence of the other. Hence: events independent So Bil + 3_ P(H OG),
© Knowing that A has occurred does not affect the probability that B does, events? 21 3 7 .
and knowing that B occurs does not affect that probability that A does. Are complementary 7 1
© P(A|B) =P(A) and P(BIA) = P(B) events mutually ence P(H MG) = 7
© P(AMB)=P(A) xP(B) exclusive? 1

e IfAand Bare not independent, they are dependent. Soy 5 . .

exclusive events be P(A |G) =PUG) =Z.1 Write down the appropriate formula.
IfeventsA and A’ are complementary then A’ is the set of outcomes that A 2 P(G) 3 3
are not in the event A: meepenen i 7
, i ‘an non-mutual
ea and_4arel mutually exclusive: P s Since P(H|G) = P(H), H and G are Write a complete and clear reason.
ne exclusive events be 7
e P(A)+P(A’)=1. independent? independent.
 QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTY: PROBABILITY 5.4
5.4 Complete, concise and at)

1 For these pairs of events, state if they c P(A) =P(A) P(B) +P(ANB’) consistent representations In TOKit can be useful to draw
a distinction between shared
are mutually exclusive, independent or d Hence, P(A B’) = P(A)(1- P(B)) soA
You can use diagrams as a rich source of information when solving knowledge and personal
neither. and B’ are independent.
problems. Choosing the correct way to represent a problem is a skill knowledge. The IB use a Venn
a A=throw a head on a fair coin Daniel throws a fair dice numbered with {1, diagram to represent these
worth developing. For example, consider the following problem:
B= throw a prime number on a fair die 2, 3,4, 5, 6} five times. two types of knowledge.
numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. In a class of 15 students, 3 study art and 6 study biology of which 1 studies If you are to think about
a Write down the probability that Daniel
b C=it rains tomorrow, D = it rains today art. A student is chosen at random. How many simple probabilities can you mathematics (or any subject,
throws the sequence
find? How many combined probabilities can you find? in fact), what could go in the
c¢ D=throw a prime number on a fair die i 4,1,3,5,2 ii 1,1,1,1,1
numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, H= throw an Let A represent the event “An art student is chosen at random from this three regions illustrated in the
iii 6,5, 4, 3,2 diagram?
even number on the same die. group” and B “A biology student is chosen at random from this group”.
b Find the probability that he throws at y
d F=throw a prime number on a fair die
least one 3.
numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, G=throw an HINT
even number on another die. ¢ Daniel simulates this experiment with a
spreadsheet. Predict how many times in If you represent the problem only as text, the simple probabilities P(A) = ;
e G=choose a number at random from
10000 trials he would expect to throw
{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10} that is at and P(B) = 2 can be found easily, but calculating these do not show you the
the sequence 1, 1, 1, 1, 1.
most 6, H = choose a number from the
same set that is at least 7. d_ Find the probability that he throws a whole picture of how the sets relate to each other.
Yahtzee (all five numbers are equal).
f M=choose a number at random from
{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10} that is no e After how many throws would he Represent this information as follows in a Venn diagram to see more
more than 5, H= choose a number from expect to have thrown 3 Yahtzees?
detail:
the same set that is 4 or more. Events G and H are such that P(G) = 0.3 and
g S=choose a Spanish speaker at random P(H) =0.6. The rectangle represents the sample space
from a set of students represented by a Find P(GU 4H) when Gand H are U for which P(U) = 1, the total probability.
this set, T= choose a Turkish speaker at mutually exclusive; The diagram allows us to find
random from this set. 2Py
b Find P(GU 4H) when Gand Hare P(B|A) = > P(B’|A) = 3 etc easily. —4
independent. g

ne.
u T
¢ Given that P(G U H) = 0.63, find P(H |G). &
rs5
Achille and Barbora throw a fair octahedral a
.
die until one of them throws an eight. The Venn diagram can be adapted to show
a Find the probability Barbara wins on one the distribution of the total probability in four
Use a Venn diagram to confirm that
of her first two throws, if she throws first. regions that represent mutually exclusive
a A=(AMB) VU (AN B’) and that 1 5
(AB) and (An B’) are mutually b Investigate if throwing first gives events: P(A M B) = —, P(A'N B)=—,
Barbora an advantage in this game. 15 15
exclusive events.
b P(A) =P((ANB) U(ANB)) P(A) = 0.35, P(A U B) = 0.75 and 2 7
P(AN B') = — and P(A'n B') = —.
P(AIB) = 0.35. Find P(B). 15 15

Hence, the probability that a randomly chosen student studies

Developing inquiry neither biology nor art is P(A'N B') = = The simple probability

skills P(B) = P(AN B)+ P(A'N B) = = ; = is represented as a union of two

Which of the events in the first opening
mutually exclusive events in the Venn diagram.
scenario are independent? Which are
mutually exclusive? The Venn diagram can be used to find all the simple, combined and
conditional probabilities.
 QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTY: PROBABILITY 5 ° 4

A tree diagram representation of this problem is as follows:

Orrepeat forn,, Ny N, and nN, dice with distinct colours Cyr Ca Cy and lay respectively.
ai The total probability of 1 is distributed a the table:
P(B|A)= 5} H , fillin
3-8 PUA 8) = POA)UBA) = along the branches of the tree using the Bence lin he ble
> multiplication law of probability. How many probabilities would be found,
Pte'|A) -2 BY P(A B}) = POAP(B A) = The probability at the end of a branch is How many probabilities would be found —_ added and their total subtracted from 1
fi - eae at and added from the tree diagram using a complementary events
ound by applying the multiplication law Number of dice representation representation.
P(g|a) => of probability. For example, PI P -
12 B pu .8) =PUA)P(B|A)
= ll4u 2 | 2 2
7 P(A B) = P(A)P(BIA) = —x —= —. 3
o1e|ay
= BPA
BP(A OBBt) =PLAPLB'
= PUPA)
At) = 2 9 3 1S 4
2 : |

k | ;
Notice that the simple probability P(B) = P(A B)+ P(A’N B) = Fe + 312
=
5 4 Gary Can you generalize
for 7, 71,, ...,7, dice with distinct colours ¢,, c, a? ?
can be found from summing the probabilities at the end of two
branches of the tree diagram. 5 Ginny Why is it useful to calculate probabilities for the complementary event in some
situations?

Atree diagram is another way to represent all the possible outcomes of an

event. The end of each branch represents a combined event. The complementary probability law P(A) = 1 — P(A’) may be more efficient International-
in some situations. mindedness
Choosing an appropriate diagram to represent a probability problem is In 1933, Russian
an important stage in the problem-solving process. mathematician
PCTs EI Andrey Kolmogorov
built up probability
1 A bag contains 12 green socks, A strawberry is selected at
Investigation 5 8 yellow socks and 7 red socks. random.
theory from
fundamental
Maria considers an experiment in which a bag contains 71, dice of colour c, and 71, dice of colour c,. Two dice Two socks are drawn at random a Find the probability that the axioms in a way
are chosen with replacement. without replacement. Find the strawberry passes QCI. comparable with
Maria works out the probability of choosing two dice of different colour in two ways after drawing a tree probability that the two socks Euclid’s treatment
b Given that a strawberry
diagram. have the same colour. of geometry. His
passes QCI, find the
' ' nt n, n, _ n, 2 A jewellery box contains 13 gold probability that it came from approach forms
Method one: P(two dice have different colours) = x + x
nt+n, m+n, mtn, n+n, earrings, 10 silver earrings and 12 supplier D. the basis for the
titanium earrings. Two earrings modern theory
Method two: P(two dice have different colours) = 1—P(two dice have same colour) = c¢ Inasample of 2000
are drawn at random with of probability.
1-| [ ——x
my n,
——_— + ——_« th
—— } replacement. Find the probability
strawberries, find the expected
number of strawberries that
Kolmogorov's work
that they are made of different is available in an
would fail QCI.
metals. English translation
Maria reflects on the methods and decides that there is nota significant difference in terms of efficiency d_ The supermarket wants the titled Foundations
because in the first method she finds and adds two probabilities whereas in the second she finds two 3 A supermarket uses two suppli- probability that a strawberry of the Theory of
probabilities and subtracts their sum from 1 using complementary events. ers of strawberries, C and D. passes QCI to be 0.93. Probability.
Maria explores the same situation and methods but for nn, and n; dice with distinct colours CC, and C5, Supplier C provides 70% of Find the percentage of
respectively. the supermarket’s strawberries. strawberries that should be
The strawberries are examined supplied by D to achieve this.
1 How many probabilities would be found and added using method one? A tree diagram may be useful to
in a quality control inspection
count the number of ways. Chevy plays a game in which she
(QCI). It is found that 90% of
throws a pair of fair cubical dice
2 How many probabilities would be found, added and their total subtracted from 1 using method two? Oo the strawberries supplied by
numbered {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} 24
C pass QCI and 95% of the
times. Find the probability that
strawberries from D pass QCI.
she throws at least one double six.
 QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTY: PROBABILITY

5 A factory produces a large both ways, discuss and then

number of electric cars. A car state who used the most
TOK i) e Whenever P(A) represents a subjective, experimental or theoretical
is chosen at random from the efficient method. During the mid-1600s, probability, then 0< P(A) <1.
production line as a prize ina mathematicians Blaise e The expected number of occurrences of A=nP(A).
6 a_ Ina five-a-side football
competition. The probability Pascal, Pierre de Fermat
match, there are 10 players Three probability diagrams:
that the car is blue is 0.5. The and Antoine Gombaud
on the pitch plus the
probability that the car has five puzzled over this simple e AVenn diagram represents the sample space with a rectangle. Within
referee. Find the probability the rectangle, each event is represented by a set of outcomes ina
doors is 0.3. The probability that gambling problem:
that they all have different
the car is blue or has five doors circle or an oval shape and is labelled accordingly.
birthdays. (Assume all Which is more likely:
is 0.6. Find the probability that e Asample space diagram is a useful way to represent the whole
birthdays are equally likely.) rolling at least one six
the car chosen is not a blue car sample space and often takes the form of a table. It is especially
on four throws of one
with five doors. b Find the smallest number
die or rolling at least one useful when the situation involves combining two sets in some way to
of people needed on the
Pietro solves this problem with double six on 24 throws form a sample space.
football pitch so that the
a ben een but Maria probability of at least two of with two dice? e Atree diagram is a useful way to represent two or more combined
Peecon gc thecmen them sharing a birthday is events, often involving choices and conditional probabilities.
answer. Solve the problem greater than 0.5. e Notation used to represent probabilities of combined events:

Name Symbol applied to Meaning

events
Intersection ANB EventsA and B both occur
Union AUB EventsA or B or both occur
Chapter summary Se Complement A EventA does not occur
Three perspectives on probability: a EventA given that event B has
Conditional A|B
e Subjective probability is derived from an individual's personal | occurred
judgment about whether a specific outcome is likely to occur. Probability laws which are always true:
e For experimental and theoretical probability, you use the following P(A U B)=P(A) +P(B) P(A 2 B) m1
terminology: aA
P(ANB Q
© Experiment:A process by which you obtain an observation P(A | B) =PAB) =
. P(B) fF
o Trials: Repeating an experiment a number of times P(A) +P(A’)=1 =
© Outcome:A possible result of an experiment . . on -
Types of combined events and the special cases of probability laws that
o Event: An outcome or set of outcomes follow:
© Sample space: The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment,
always denoted by U Type of event Consequences

e Wewrite P(A) to represent the probability of event A occurring. wens A and Bare mutually exclusive if ra Oo Bs? P(BO A)=
they cannot both occur. U (A) +P(B
e Experimental probability is given by Ha )=P(A) + P(B)
fervent ta= Frequency of occurrence of event A in 77 trials Events A and Bare independent ifthe A i ‘
Be NY occurrence of each event does not affect PAA 2 P(BAA)=
” me in any way the occurrence of the other. P(A)P(B) -
e The theoretical probability of an eventA is P(A) = aa where (A) is The tsAandA’ 1 ‘
n e events A and A’ are complementary.
the number of outcomes that makeA happen and n(U) is the number
; Hence,A and A’ are mutually exclusive.
oornige, | P(A)+P(A)=
of outcomes in the sample space. . .
e The complementary probability law P(A) = 1 — P(A’) can give youa
© quick way to solve problems.
 QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTY: PROBABILITY 5
a Complete the following Punnett square d_ Find the probability that at least one
Developing inquiry skills to show the possible outcomes of
pairs of chromosomes that can be
set of lights will be green
(3 marks)
Apply what you have learned inherited: 10 P1: Jake and Elisa are given the same
in this section to represent mathematics problem.
Chromosome inherited
the first opening problem with
from mother The probability that Jake can solve it is
atree diagram.
x x 0.35.
If Jake has solved it, the probability that
acab is identified as yellow.
x XxX Elisa can solve it is 0.6, otherwise it is
Apply the formula for 0.45.
conditional probability to find
a Draw a tree diagram to illustrate the
the probability that the cab Y XY
above situation, showing clearly the
was yellow given that it was
probabilities on each branch.
identified as yellow.
(3 marks)
How does your answer compare to your original subjective judgement? b Hence, show that the probability that a
child is born female is 0.5. b Find the probability that at least
one of the students can solve the
problem. (2 marks)
Exam-style questions c Find the probability that Jake solves
the problem, given than Elisa has.
Chapter review Click here for a mixed
review exercise =
8
.
P41: A box contains 16 chocolates, of which
3 are known to contain nuts.
(4 marks)
P41: A and B are events such that P(A) = 0.3,
1 Band Care independent events. P(BO C) = 0.1 5 Each odd number from 1 to 5” where n Two chocolates are selected at random.

re
P(B) = 0.65 and P(AUB) = 0.7
and P(B C’) = 0.4. Find P(B’ U C). is odd is written on a piece of paper and Find the probability that By drawing a Venn diagram to
placed in a box. a exactly one chocolate contains illustrate these probabilities, find:
2 P(X)= ;, P(X|Y) = = P(XIY) = 0.8 a Calculate how many pieces of paper nuts (3 marks) a P(A’OB) (2 marks)
a Find P(Y). there are in the box.
b at least one chocolate contains b P(AUB’) (2 marks)
b Find the probability in terms of n that a nuts. (3 marks) 2Py
Determine if X and Y are independent c¢ P(ANB)’ (2 marks) —4
events. paper selected at random from the box g2
P2: Hamid must drive through three sets of
shows a number that is divisible by 5. P1: In a survey, 48 people were asked

oppo
traffic lights in order to reach his place
rs5

EB
3 a Find the probability of the outcome about their holidays over the past year.
6 A company fleet has six blue and n of work. The probability that the first a
“throw at least one six” when a fair It was found that 32 people had taken
white cars. Two cars are chosen without set of lights is green is 0.7.
cubical die is thrown 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, ..., a holiday in Europe, and 25 people had
replacement. The probability that two The probability that the second set of
times. taken a holiday in the USA.
blue cars are chosen is |. Find the value lights is green is 0.4.
b Hence, find the least value of for Everyone surveyed had been to at least
7 The probability that the third set of
which P(throw at least one six in n of n. Europe or the USA.
throws) is 99.5% lights is green is 0.8.
? The genes in human chromosome pairs a Determine how many people had
It may be assumed that the probability taken a holiday in both Europe and
4 A packet of seeds contains 65% green determine if a child is male or female.
of any set of lights being green is the USA. (2 marks)
and 35% red seeds. The probability that Males have an X and Y chromosome
independent of the others.
a green seed grows is 0.85 and that a red pair and females an X and X pair. b Find the probability that a randomly
seed grows is 0.74. A seed is chosen at Inheriting the XY combination causes a Find the probability that all three selected person had been to Europe,
random from the packet. male characteristics to develop and XX sets of lights are green. (2 marks) but not the USA. (3 marks)
a Calculate the probability that the seed causes female characteristics to develop. b Find the probability that only one c Explain why the events “taking
grows. Sperm contain an X or Y with equal set of lights is green. (3 marks) a holiday in Europe” and “taking
probability and an egg always contains ¢ Given that the first set of lights a holiday in the USA” are not
b Calculate the probability that the seed only an X. An infant inherits one
is green and grows. is red (ie not green), find the independent events. (3 marks)
chromosome determining gender from probability that the following two
¢ Calculate the probability that the seed each parent. pairs of lights will be green.
is red or it grows.
(2 marks)
 QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTY: PROBABILITY 5
13 P2: The Venn diagram illustrates the 15 P2: The Venn diagram below shows the Find the value of a and the value e Find the probability that a
= number of students taking each of the — probabilities for three events ofc. (5 marks) randomly chosen member does not
= three sciences: Physics, Chemistry and — A,Band C. play squash, given that they do not
Find the value of b and the value
Biology. of d. (3 marks) play tennis. (2 marks)

Physics Chemistry Find the probability that a Let S be the event that a member
randomly chosen member plays plays squash, and let T be the

OO)
only one sport. (2 marks) event that a member plays tennis.
Find the probability that a Determine whether:
randomly chosen member plays i events S and T are mutually
2 tennis given that they do not play exclusive (1 mark)
Biology squash. ii events S and T are independent.
a Justify that events B and C are not
(2 marks) (2 marks)
independent. (2 marks)
A student is randomly chosen from the b Explain why events A and C are
group. mutually exclusive. (2 marks)
Find the probability that ¢ Determine whether events A and B
a the student studies Chemistry or are independent. (4 marks)
Biology (2 marks)
d Determine whether events A’ and C’
b the student studies neither Physics are mutually exclusive. (2 marks)
nor Biology (2 marks)
e Find P(ANC). (2 marks)
c the student studies Physics, given
that they study Chemistry 16 P2: At a local sports centre, members can
(2 marks) a either play tennis or squash.
d_ the student studies Biology, given - The probability that a member plays
that they study Physics tennis is 0.8.
(2 marks) Given that a member plays squash,
e the student studies Physics, given the probability that they play tennis
2Py
that they do not study Biology. is 0.8.
—4
(2 marks) The probability that a member does not g2
4 P1: A and B are independent events, such play squash is 0.1. rs5
rs

that P(A) = 0.3 and P(B) = 0.5. The information is illustrated by the a
Find the following probabilities. following Venn diagram, where a, b,c
and d are probabilities:
a P(AMB) (2 marks)
b P(AUB) (2 marks)
Tennis ‘Squash
c P(B’NA) (2 marks)
d P(BlA’) (3 marks)
 Random walking! Approaches to learning:Critical thinking
Exploration criteria: Mathematical Toss a coin.
communication (B), Personal engagement (C),
Let a tail (7) represent a left step and a head (H) represent a right step.
Use of mathematics (E)
Write down the number of tosses/steps it takes for the man to fall into the ditch.
IB topic: Probability, Discrete distributions
Do this a total of 10 times.
=
Calculate the average number of steps taken. o

==
a
Construct a spreadsheet with the results from the whole class.
tcl ead

Calculate the average number of steps taken from these results. ce)
How has this changed the result? J
oy

Do you know the actual average number of steps required? =

a

How could you be certain what the average is? iJ

a
Calculate probabilities =
Lie)
o
RDM

Construct a tree diagram that illustrates the probabilities of falling into the =
c=}
ditch within five steps. J
»
OT

Use your tree diagram to answer these questions: cs}

ta
What is the probability associated with each sequence in which the man falls 3<=
ce
into the ditch after a total of exactly five steps?
What is the probability that the man falls into the ditch after a total of exactly
five steps?
What is the minimum number of steps to fall into the ditch?
What is the maximum number?
What is the probability that the man falls into the ditch after a total of exactly
three steps?
Explain why all the paths have an odd number of steps.
The problem x be the number of the steps taken to fall into the ditch.
Let
Copy and complete this table of probabilities:
Aman walks down a long, straight road. With each step he either moves
left or right with equal probability. He starts in the middle of the road. If he ce }1 [2 [3 |4 [5 {6 |? |8 {9 |40 | 41 [22 |... |
moves three steps to the left or three steps to the right, he will fall into a P(X=x) — | | |
ditch on either side of the road. The aim is to find probabilities related to _ - . : "
the man falling into the ditch, and in particular to find the average number Look at the numbers in your table.
of steps he takes before inevitably falling into the ditch. Can you see a pattern?
Could you predict the next few entries?
Simulation
Explore the problem Since there is an infinite number of values of x, calculating
Use a counter to represent the man and a “board” to represent the the expected number of steps to fall into the ditch would
scenario: be very complicated.
TAILS HEADS An alternative approach is to run a computer
starr simulation to generate more results, and to calculate Extension
an average from these results. , Fi
. . Once you have a code written you could easily
You can write a code in any computer language ee eee
available that will run this simulation as many times ytne pl .
as needed. What variations of the problem can you think of?
This will allow you to improve on the average You may also be able to devise your own
DITCH DITCH Pate os , P
calculated individually and as a class. probability question which you could answer
Although this would not be a proof, it is convincing if using simulation.
enough simulations are recorded.
230 231