MODULE 4

DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS

Session Topic: Purpose and limitations of different economic measurements

1. Economic indicators
2. Business cycle
3. Keynesian’s economics
Learning Objectives
1. Familiarity about economic indicators
2. Learn the limit of economic indicators
3. The use and application of Statistics

Key Points
Political Normative Prediction Business Leading
Economics economics cycle indicator
GINI index Lagging Coincident CPI GDP
indicator indicator
GNP Positive Stock market Prime rate Unemployment
economics

Core Content

Introduction

An economic indicator is a metric used to assess, measure, and evaluate the overall state of
health of the general economy. Economic indicators are often collected by a government agency or
private business intelligence organization in the form of a census or survey, which is then analysed
further to generate an economic indicator.

In-text Activities

What Is Economic Indicator?

An economic indicator is a statistic about an economic activity. Economic indicators allow

analysis of economic performance and predictions of future performance. One application of
economic indicators is the study of business cycles. Economic indicators include various indices,
earnings reports, and economic summaries: for example, the unemployment rate, quits rate (quit rate
in American English), housing starts, consumer price index (a measure for inflation), consumer
leverage ratio, industrial production, bankruptcies, gross domestic product, broadband internet
penetration, retail sales, stock market prices, and money supply changes.

An economic indicator is a piece of economic data, usually of macroeconomic scale, that is

used by analysts to interpret current or future investment possibilities. These indicators also help to
judge the overall health of an economy.

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 Economic indicators can be anything the investor chooses, but specific pieces of data released
by the government and non-profit organizations have become widely followed. Such indicators
include but are not limited to:

 The Consumer Price Index (CPI)

 Gross domestic product (GDP)
 Unemployment figures
 Price of crude oil

Classifications of Economic indicators according to the usual timing: Leading indicators,

lagging indicators, and coincident indicators.

Leading indicators are indicators that usually, but not always, change before the economy as a
whole changes. They are therefore useful as short-term predictors of the economy. Stock
market returns are a leading indicator: the stock market usually begins to decline before the economy
as a whole declines and usually begins to improve before the general economy begins to recover
from a slump.

Leading indicators point to future changes in the economy. They are extremely useful for
short-term predictions of economic developments because they usually change before the economy
changes.

Example:

Components of the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators Index

1. Average weekly hours (manufacturing) — Adjustments to the working hours of existing

employees are usually made in advance of new hires or layoffs, which is why the measure of
average weekly hours is a leading indicator for changes in unemployment.
2. Average weekly initial jobless claims for unemployment insurance — The CB reverses
the value of this component from positive to negative because a positive reading indicates a
loss in jobs. The initial jobless-claims data is more sensitive to business conditions than other
measures of unemployment, and as such leads the monthly unemployment data released by
the U.S. Department of Labour in comparison to others.
3. Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods/materials — this component is considered
a leading indicator because increases in new orders for consumer goods and materials
usually mean positive changes in actual production. The new orders decrease inventory and
contribute to unfilled orders, a precursor to future revenue.
4. Vendor performance (slower deliveries diffusion index) — this component measures the
time it takes to deliver orders to industrial companies. Vendor performance leads the business
cycle because an increase in delivery time can indicate rising demand for manufacturing
supplies. Vendor performance is measured by a monthly survey from the National Association
of Purchasing Managers (NAPM). This diffusion index measures one-half of the respondents
reporting no change and all respondents reporting slower deliveries.
5. Manufacturers' new orders for non-defence capital goods — as stated above, new orders
lead the business cycle because increases in orders usually mean positive changes in actual

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 production and perhaps rising demand. This measure is the producer's counterpart of new
orders for consumer goods/materials component (#3).
6. Building permits for new private housing units.
7. Stock prices of 500 common stocks — Equity market returns are considered a leading
indicator because changes in stock prices reflect investors' expectations for the future of the
economy and interest rates.
8. Money Supply (M2) — the money supply measures demand deposits, traveller’s checks,
savings deposits, currency, money market accounts, and small-denomination time deposits.
Here, M2 is adjusted for inflation by means of the deflator published by the federal
government in the GDP report. Bank lending, a factor contributing to account deposits, usually
declines when inflation increases faster than the money supply, which can make economic
expansion more difficult. Thus, an increase in demand deposits will indicate expectations that
inflation will rise, resulting in a decrease in bank lending and an increase in savings.

Lagging indicators usually come after the economy changes. They are generally most helpful
when used to confirm specific patterns. You can make economic predictions based on the patterns,
but lagging indicators cannot be used to directly predict economic change.

Example:

Lagging indicators are indicators that usually change after the economy as a whole does.
Typically the lag is a few quarters of a year. The unemployment rate is a lagging indicator:
employment tends to increase two or three quarters after an upturn in the general economy.  In
finance, Bollinger bands are one of various lagging indicators in frequent use. In a performance
measuring system, profit earned by a business is a lagging indicator as it reflects a historical
performance; similarly, improved customer satisfaction is the result of initiatives taken in the past.

The components on the Conference Board's index are:

 The average duration of unemployment (inverted)

 The value of outstanding commercial and industrial loans
 The change in the Consumer Price Index for services
 The change in labour cost per unit of output
 The ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales
 The ratio of consumer credit outstanding to personal income
 The average prime rate charged by banks

Coincident indicators provide valuable information about the current state of the economy
within a particular area because they happen at the same time as the changes they signal.

Coincident indicators change at approximately the same time as the whole economy, thereby
providing information about the current state of the economy. There are many coincident economic
indicators, such as Gross Domestic Product, industrial production, personal income and retail sales.
A coincident index may be used to identify, after the fact, the dates of peaks and troughs in the
business cycle.

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Example:

There are four economic statistics comprising the Index of Coincident Economic Indicators:

 Number of employees on non-agricultural payrolls

 Personal income less transfer payments
 Industrial production
 Manufacturing and trade sale

An economic activity is a process that, based on inputs, leads to the manufacture of a good or
the provision of a service. The classification of activities divides economic activities into categories
which, by aggregation, make it possible to define the sectors of activity (Agriculture, Industry,
Construction, Trade, and so on).

The units in which business statistics are concerned (enterprises, legal units, establishments,
and so on) may carry out one or more economic activities, but each unit has only one main activity.
The sectoral classification of a unit corresponds to the sector of activity to which its main activity
belongs. In labour force or employment by activity statistics, individuals are classified according to the
main activity of the establishment or enterprise that employs them.

Economic activity is spurred by production which uses natural resources, labor and capital. It
has changed over time due to technology, innovation (new products, services, processes, expanding
markets, diversification of markets, niche markets, increases revenue functions) such as, that which
produces intellectual property and changes in industrial relations (most notably child labor being
replaced in some parts of the world with universal access to education).

A prediction or forecast, is a statement about a future event. They are often, but not always,
based upon experience or knowledge. There is no universal agreement about the exact difference
from "estimation"; different authors and disciplines ascribe different connotations. Future events are
necessarily uncertain, so guaranteed accurate information about the future is impossible. Prediction
can be useful to assist in making plans about possible developments; Howard H. Stevenson writes
that prediction in business "is at least two things: Important and hard."

Statistics

In statistics, prediction is a part of statistical inference. One particular approach to such

inference is known as predictive inference, but the prediction can be undertaken within any of the
several approaches to statistical inference. Indeed, one possible description of statistics is that it
provides a means of transferring knowledge about a sample of a population to the whole population,
and to other related populations, which is not necessarily the same as prediction over time. When
information is transferred across time, often to specific points in time, the process is known
as forecasting. Forecasting usually requires time series methods, while prediction is often performed
on cross-sectional data.

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 Statistical techniques used for prediction include regression analysis and its various sub-
categories such as linear regression, generalized linear models (logistic regression, Poisson
regression, Probit regression), etc. In case of forecasting, autoregressive moving average
models and vector auto regression models can be utilized. When these and/or related, generalized
set of regression or machine learning methods are deployed in commercial usage, the field is known
as predictive analytics.
In many applications, such as time series analysis, it is possible to estimate the models that
generate the observations. If models can be expressed as transfer functions or in terms of state-
space parameters then smoothed, filtered and predicted data estimates can be calculated. If the
underlying generating models are linear then a minimum-variance Kalman filter and a minimum-
variance smoother may be used to recover data of interest from noisy measurements. These
techniques rely on one-step-ahead predictors (which minimise the variance of the prediction error). If
the generating models are nonlinear then stepwise linearizations may be applied within Extended
Kalman Filter and smoother recursions. However, in nonlinear cases, optimum minimum-variance
performance guarantees no longer apply.
To use regression analysis for prediction, data are collected on the variable that is to be
predicted, called the dependent variable or response variable, and on one or more variables whose
values are hypothesized to influence it, called independent variables or explanatory variables.
A functional form, often linear, is hypothesized for the postulated causal relationship, and
the parameters of the function are estimated from the data—that is, are chosen so as to optimize is
some way the fit of the function, thus parameterized, to the data. That is the estimation step. For the
prediction step, explanatory variable values that are deemed relevant to future (or current but not yet
observed) values of the dependent variable are input to the parameterized function to generate
predictions for the dependent variable.

The Business Cycles

The business cycle, also known as the economic cycle or trade cycle, are the fluctuations
of gross domestic product (GDP) around its long-term growth trend. The length of a business cycle is
the period of time containing a single boom and contraction in sequence. These fluctuations typically
involve shifts over time between periods of relatively rapid economic growth (expansions or booms)
and periods of relative stagnation or decline (contractions or recessions).
Business cycles are usually measured by considering the growth rate of real gross domestic
product. Despite the often-applied term cycles, these fluctuations in economic activity do not exhibit
uniform or predictable periodicity. The common or popular usage boom-and-bust cycle refers to
fluctuations in which the expansion is rapid and the contraction severe.

Theory

The first systematic exposition of economic crises, in opposition to the existing theory
of economic equilibrium, was the 1819 Nouveaux Principes d'économie politique by Jean Charles
Léonard de Sismondi. Prior to that point classical economics had either denied the existence of
business cycles, blamed them on external factors, notably war, or only studied the long term.
Sismondi found vindication in the Panic of 1825, which was the first unarguably international
economic crisis, occurring in peacetime.

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 Ctto

Sismondi and his contemporary Robert Owen, who expressed similar but less systematic
thoughts in 1817 Report to the Committee of the Association for the Relief of the Manufacturing
Poor, both identified the cause of economic cycles as overproduction and under consumption, caused
in particular by wealth inequality. They advocated government intervention and socialism,
respectively, as the solution. This work did not generate interest among classical economists, though
under consumption theory developed as a heterodox branch in economics until being systematized
in Keynesian economics in the 1930s.

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 Sismondi's theory of periodic crises was developed into a theory of
alternating cycles by Charles Dunoyer, and similar theories, showing signs of influence by Sismondi,
were developed by Johann Karl Rodbertus. Periodic crises in capitalism formed the basis of the
theory of Karl Marx, who further claimed that these crises were increasing in severity and, on the
basis of which, he predicted a communist revolution. Though only passing references in Das
Kapital (1867) refer to crises, they were extensively discussed in Marx's posthumously published
books, particularly in Theories of Surplus Value. In Progress and Poverty (1879), Henry
George focused on land's role in crises – particularly land speculation – and proposed a single tax on
land as a solution.

Socioeconomics is sometimes used as an umbrella term for various areas of inquiry. The term
“social economics” may refer broadly to the "use of economics in the study of society". More narrowly,
contemporary practice considers behavioral interactions of individuals and groups through social
capital and social "markets" (not excluding, for example, sorting by marriage) and the formation
of social norms. In the relation of economics to social values

Keynesian
According to Keynesian economics, fluctuations in aggregate demand cause the economy to
come to short run equilibrium at levels that are different from the full employment rate of output.
These fluctuations express themselves as the observed business cycles. Keynesian models do not
necessarily imply periodic business cycles. However, simple Keynesian models involving the
interaction of the Keynesian multiplier and accelerator give rise to cyclical responses to initial
shocks. Paul Samuelson's "oscillator model" is supposed to account for business cycles thanks to the
multiplier and the accelerator. The amplitude of the variations in economic output depends on the
level of the investment, for investment determines the level of aggregate output (multiplier), and is
determined by aggregate demand (accelerator).

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In the Keynesian tradition, Richard Goodwin accounts for cycles in output by the distribution of
income between business profits and workers' wages. The fluctuations in wages are almost the same
as in the level of employment (wage cycle lags one period behind the employment cycle) for when the
economy is at high employment, workers are able to demand rises in wages, whereas in periods of

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high unemployment, wages tend to fall. According to Goodwin, when unemployment and business
profits rise, the output rises.

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The multiplier–accelerator model (also known as Hansen–Samuelson model) is

a macroeconomic model which analyzes the business cycle. This model was developed by Paul
Samuelson, who credited Alvin Hansen for the inspiration. This model is based on the
Keynesian multiplier, which is a consequence of assuming that consumption intentions depend on the
level of economic activity, and the accelerator theory of investment, which assumes that investment
intentions depend on the pace of growth in economic activity.
Credit/debit cycle
One alternative theory is that the primary cause of economic cycles is due to the  credit cycle:
the net expansion of credit (increase in private credit, equivalently debt, as a percentage of GDP)
yields economic expansions, while the net contraction causes recessions, and if it persists,

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depressions. In particular, the bursting of speculative bubbles is seen as the proximate cause of
depressions, and this theory places finance and banks at the centre of the business cycle.
Real business-cycle theory
Within mainstream economics, Keynesian views have been challenged by real business
cycle models in which fluctuations are due to random changes in the total productivity factor (which
are caused by changes in technology as well as the legal and regulatory environment).

Product based theory of economic cycles

This theory explains the nature and causes of economic cycles from the viewpoint of life-cycle
of marketable goods. The theory originates from the work of Raymond Vernon, who described the
development of international trade in terms of product life-cycle – a period of time during which the
product circulates in the market. Vernon stated that some countries specialize in the production and
export of technologically new products, while others specialize in the production of already known
products. The most developed countries are able to invest large amounts of money in the
technological innovations and produce new products, thus obtaining a dynamic comparative
advantage over developing countries.
Political business cycle
Another set of models tries to derive the business cycle from political decisions. The political
business cycle theory is strongly linked to the name of Michał Kalecki who discussed "the reluctance
of the 'captains of industry' to accept government intervention in the matter of
employment". Persistent full employment would mean increasing workers' bargaining power to raise
wages and to avoid doing unpaid labour, potentially hurting profitability. 

Economics is a social science that examines how people produce, distribute, and consume
goods and services. This means that much of the field is based on human behavior, which can be
somewhat irrational and unpredictable. For this reason, it's a science with certain inherent limitations
that prevent its practitioner – economists that is – from being able to predict markets' performance
accurately and know exactly how certain policies will affect different sectors and economies.

The limitations of economics become especially problematic in normative economics, which

involves recommendations about how things ought to be and what types of policies a government
should implement in order to improve a nation's economy. Different economists come to completely
different conclusions about what kind of regulations and controls should be applied to various markets
and exactly what outcomes will result. While they can point to data, historical precedence, and other
facts to support their arguments, there is no way to guarantee that they are right.

Because the field of economics cannot provide concrete conclusions, it is susceptible to

criticism from a variety of sources, as is the case with political economics. Politicians often use
normative economics to argue for certain policy changes that support their own agendas. They
present their beliefs and hypotheses to the public as irrefutable facts when, in actuality, there is no
way to verify the validity of their ideas, except to put them into practice and evaluate the results.

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 Economics was born out of the idea that human beings could study the nature of  wealth in
order to better the world, but it is a problematic area of inquiry. While positive economics can help
people understand what is currently happening, it is much more difficult to use similar modes of
thinking to predict the future and influence policies to ensure overall improvements. Even
longstanding theories that are considered essential aspects of economics sometimes contradict one
another. Ultimately, economists have to choose to subscribe to a particular school of thought that
best aligns with their beliefs. These opposing viewpoints can cause controversies and only add to the
limitations of economics in actually solving financial problems.

SUMMARY

 Political economy is the study of production and trade and their relations

with law, custom and government; and with the distribution of national income and wealth.
 Normative economics (as opposed to positive economics) is a part of economics whose
objective is fairness or what the outcome of the economy or goals of public policy ought to be.
 A prediction or forecast, is a statement about a future event. They are often, but not always,
based upon experience or knowledge. There is no universal agreement about the exact
difference from "estimation"; different authors and disciplines ascribe different connotations.
 The business cycle, also known as the economic cycle or trade cycle, are the fluctuations
of gross domestic product (GDP) around its long-term growth trend. The length of a business
cycle is the period of time containing a single boom and contraction in sequence.
 Leading indicators are indicators that usually, but not always, change before the economy as a
whole changes.
 Gini coefficient  sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical
dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or
any other group of people. 
 Lagging indicators are indicators that usually change after the economy as a whole does.
Typically the lag is a few quarters of a year. 
 Coincident indicators change at approximately the same time as the whole economy, thereby
providing information about the current state of the economy.
 A consumer price index measures changes in the price level of a weighted average market
basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households.
 Gross domestic product (GDP) is a monetary measure of the market value of all the final
goods and services produced in a specific time period.
 The gross national income (GNI), previously known as gross national product (GNP), is the
total domestic and foreign output claimed by residents of a country, consisting of gross
domestic product (GDP), plus factor incomes earned by foreign residents, minus income
earned in the domestic economy by non-resident’s (Todaro & Smith, 2011: 44).
 Positive economics (as opposed to normative economics) is the branch of economics that
concerns the description, quantification and explanation of economic phenomena.
 A stock market, equity market, or share market is the aggregation of buyers and sellers
of stocks (also called shares), which represent ownership claims on businesses; these may
include securities listed on a public stock exchange, as well as stock that is only traded

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 privately, such as shares of private companies which are sold to investors through equity
crowd funding platforms.
 A prime rate or prime lending rate is an interest rate used by banks, usually the interest rate at
which banks lend to customers with good credit. Some variable interest rates may be
expressed as a percentage above or below prime rate.
 Unemployment is measured by the unemployment rate, which is the number of people who are
unemployed as a percentage of the labour force (the total number of people employed added
to those unemployed).

Learning Assessment

Prepare a power point presentation of the following: (Divide the class into 3 groups)

1. Classical Political Economy

2. Marxism
3. Socialism
4. Neoclassical economics
5. Keynesian economics

References

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 ^ Khan, Mejreen (2 February 2015). "The biggest debt forgiveness write-offs in the history of the world -
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 ^ Wells, David A. (1890). Recent Economic Changes and Their Effect on Production and Distribution of Wealth and
Well-Being of Society. New York: D. Appleton and Co. ISBN 978-0543724748. RECENT ECONOMIC CHANGES
AND THEIR EFFECT ON DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH AND WELL BEING OF SOCIETY WELLS.
 ^ Rothbard, Murray (2002). History of Money and Banking in the United States (PDF). Ludwig Von Mises
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 ^ Wells, David A. (1890). Recent Economic Changes and Their Effect on Production and Distribution of Wealth and
Well-Being of Society. New York: D. Appleton and Co. ISBN 978-0543724748. RECENT ECONOMIC CHANGES

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 AND THEIR EFFECT ON DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH AND WELL BEING OF SOCIETY WELLS. Opening line of
the Preface.
 ^ Beaudreau, Bernard C. (1996). Mass Production, the Stock Market Crash and the Great Depression. New York,
Lincoln, Shanghi: Authors Choice Press.
 ^ Lebergott, Stanley (1993). Pursuing Happiness: American Consumers in the Twentieth Century. Princeton, NJ:
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 ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on 2013-03-13. Retrieved 2013-08-01. Stock Market
Cycles 1942–1995
 ^ "Business Cycles versus Boom-and-Bust Cycles", Economic and Financial Crises, Palgrave Macmillan,
2015, doi:10.1057/9781137461902.0009, ISBN 978-1-137-46190-2
 ^ Fighting Off Depression, New York Times, Krugman, Paul (5 January 2009). "Opinion | Fighting off
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 ^ Smith, Adrian; Swain, Adam (January 2010). "The Global Economic Crisis, Eastern Europe, and the Former Soviet
Union: Models of Development and the Contradictions of Internationalization". Eurasian Geography and
Economics. 51 (1): 1–34. doi:10.2747/1539-7216.51.1.1. ISSN 1538-7216. S2CID 154302466.
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 ^ Jan Tore Klovland "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2014-02-22. Retrieved 2013-07-30.
 ^ See, e.g. Korotayev, Andrey V., & Tsirel, Sergey V. A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff
Waves, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development, and the 2008–2009 Economic
Crisis Archived2010-06-15 at the Wayback Machine. Structure and Dynamics. 2010. Vol. 4. no. 1. pp. 3–57.
 ^ Orlando, Giuseppe; Zimatore, Giovanna (18 December 2017). "RQA correlations on real business cycles time
series". Indian Academy of Sciences – Conference Series. 1 (1): 35–41. doi:10.29195/iascs.01.01.0009.
 ^ Orlando, Giuseppe; Zimatore, Giovanna (1 May 2018). "Recurrence quantification analysis of business
cycles". Chaos, Solitons & Fractals. 110: 82–94. doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2018.02.032. ISSN 0960-0779.

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