P ROJECT P LANNING &

S CHEDULING
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ANANTH NATARAJAN
 P ROJECTS | P ERFORMANCE | I MPROVEMENT

Project
Planning Risk
Project Project Scheduling
Manager Schedule Software
Risk
WBS Manage
ment
PMI
Project Management Institute
Established: 1969

Headquartered: PA, USA

Members: 680,000+

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PMI
PROCESSES
• 5 Process Groups

• 10 Knowledge Areas
1. Project Integration Management
2. Project Scope Management
3. Project Time Management
4. Project Cost Management
5. Project Quality Management
6. Project Human Resource Management
7. Project Communications Management
8. Project Risk Management
9. Project Procurement Management
10. Project Stakeholder Management

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 • Develop Project Management Plan ⇒ Project Integration Management
PLANNING • Plan Scope Management ⇒ Project Scope Management
• Collect Requirements ⇒ Project Scope Management
PROCESS • Define Scope ⇒ Project Scope Management
• Create WBS ⇒ Project Scope Management
GROUP (24 • Plan Schedule Management ⇒ Project Schedule Management
PROCESSES) •
•
Define Activities ⇒ Project Schedule Management
Sequence Activities ⇒ Project Schedule Management
• Project Management Plan • Estimate Activity Durations ⇒ Project Schedule Management
• Develop Schedule ⇒ Project Schedule Management
• Subsidiary Plans
• Plan Cost Management ⇒ Project Cost Management
• Baselines (scope, cost, Schedule) • Estimate Costs ⇒ Project Cost Management
• Determine Budget ⇒ Project Cost Management
• Requirement Traceability matrix • Plan Quality Management ⇒ Project Quality Management

• WBS • Plan Resource Management ⇒ Project Resource Management

• Estimate Activity Resources⇒ Project Resource Management
• Project Schedule • Plan Communications Management ⇒ Project Communication Management
• Plan Risk Management ⇒ Project Risk Management
• Budget • Identify Risks ⇒ Project Risk Management
• Scope Statement • Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis ⇒ Project Risk Management
• Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis ⇒ Project Risk Management
• Risk Register • Plan Risk Responses ⇒ Project Risk Management
• Plan Procurement Management ⇒ Project Procurement Management
• Procurement Documents
• Plan Stakeholder Engagement ⇒ Project Stakeholder Management

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PLANNING
PROCESS
GROUP
• Largest of the five process groups: 24
processes

• Plan entire project in detail,:

• Scope
• Schedule
• Budget
• Stakeholder management

• Project management plan (PMP).

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 PROJECTS
“A temporary endeavor Scope Scope

undertaken to create a unique budget cost

project service or result.” - PMI Schedule time

Temporary Project
FID Delivery
Execution
Networks of independent Promoter
C

organizations L
C C
O O
1 Contractors 2

Tangible & Unique Value S

C S
S
C
S
C
S
C
1 C 3 4 5
2
Subcontractors

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 E P C P ROJECT F LOW

Project Selection, benefit Project scope, budget,

Opportunity identification

quantification schedule definition

Project FEED -Detailed

Opportunity
definition/ Engineering & FID
appraisal
selection Planning
 P ROJECT M ANAGEMENT

1980s
1950s
•Primavera P6
•AACE (1956) 1960s (1983)
1917 2010+ 2018+ 2020+
•CPM (1957) •IPMA (1965) •MS Project
•GANTT •PERT (1958) •PMI (1969) (1984) •Cloud •AI Blockchain
FREDERICK
WINSLOW TAYLOR
• Mechanical Engineer

• Pioneer in industrial efficiency.

• One of the first management consultants

• Father of scientific management

• Standardization of methods
• Time and motion

• The Principles of Scientific Management,

• Fellows of the Academy of Management voted the most
influential management book of the twentieth century

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HENRY GANTT

• Social scientist and management consultant

• Mechanical engineer

• Pioneer in scientific management

• Worked with Frederick W. Taylor

• Developed methods to streamline and increase the

productivity of corporations and their workforce.

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GANTT CHART
 SCHEDULE DEVELOPMENT

Work
Activity Activity
breakdown
Durations & Ordering or Scheduling
Structure
Costs Sequencing
(WBS)
 WORK BREAKDOWN STRUCTURE (WBS)

• What must be done

• What are the tasks
• How long will the tasks take
• What resources are needed for the task
• How much will the tasks cost
 ESTIMATING TIME DURATIONS

• Historical data - Previous Projects

• Expert estimation
• Cognitive biases
OPTIMISM BIAS

DiBartolomeo (2020)
PARKINSON'S
LAW
“The amount of work expands to fill the
time available for its completion”
Cyril Northcote Parkinson, famous British
historian and author, 1955

Falconer

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STUDENTS SYNDROME

BAlyuk (2020)
 SCHEDULE – GANTT CHART

Preceding Days
Duration
Activity 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Activity1 Begin 2
Activity2 Begin 5
Activity3 1 4
Activity4 1, 2 6
Activity5 2 3
Activity6 3, 4 2
 A RROW D IAGRAMING M ETHOD

• Activity on Arrow
• Activity on Node
• Critical Path Method (CMP) – Dupont
• Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) – US Navy
 ACTIVITY ON A RROW

-3
Activity 3
1
- 1 6
vity
cti it y -6
A A ctiv
it y - 4
Start A ctiv 4

Acti Activ End

vity- 2 ity-5
2
5
 ACTIVITY ON NODE

Activity-3
Activity-1
Activity-6

Begin Activity-4

End
Activity-2

Activity-5
 ACTIVITY RELATIONSHIPS

1. Finish to Start (FS) Activity-1 Activity-2

Activity-1
2. Finish to Finish (FF) Activity-2

Activity-1
3. Start to Start (SS) Activity-2

Activity-1
4. Start to Finish (SF)
Activity-2
PROJECT SCHEDULING

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 PRECEDENCE DIAGRAMING METHOD

• Activity network
• Activities as Boxes or Nodes
ES Act EF

LS dur LF
N E T W O R K A N A LY S I S
Float = 3 2 Act 6 Float = 5
0 Act 2 3
1 Activity-3 11 Act 13
7 4 11
Activity-1 6
3 2 5
Activity-6
11 2 13
Beg 5 Act 11
0 0
4
Begin Activity-4
0 0 0 0 Act 5 5 6 11
2
End
Activity-2
0 5 5 5 Act 8
5
Activity-5
10 3 13
Float = 5
 PATHS IN NETWORK

Path Path
Activities duration Buffer
1 3 6 End 8 5
1 4 6 End 10 3
Begin
2 4 6 End 13 0
2 5 End 8 5
CRITICAL
CHAIN
•

% of Buffet Consumed
Theory of Constraints (TOC)

• Critical Chain Project Management

(CCPM)

• Critical chain is an alternative to

critical path analysis

• Project Buffer

• TOC argues that all of the buffer

time should be at the end of the
project, not in each step % of Duration Consumed
• Eliyahu M. Goldrat

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TRADITIONAL VS AGILE
TRACK
RECORD
• High Average Overruns

• Significant number of Outliers

(extreme overruns)

• Non-normal distribution

• Seen in all Project Classes in

different sectors

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 P ROBLEM

Human
cognition

Complexity: unpredictable
problems, Principal-
agent issues
Complexity

Biases: over-optimistic Project

estimates of cost, Performance
schedules, benefits, issues
Reaction-
Available
time/
Information
flexibility
Principal-agent issues:
understatement of cost,
schedules, benefit
overstatement, data-hiding Temporality
 FORECASTING

Real Experts Not Really

• Livestock Judges • Economists
• Astronomers • Stockbrokers
• Test Pilots • Clinical Psychologists
• Mathematicians • Intelligence Analysts
• Accountants • Financial Forecasters
• Etc. • Etc.
 COMPLEXITY & CHAOS

• Interacting components, unknowns,

unknowability, risk Number of
components
• Large projects are complex (Remington &
Pollack, 2008)
• Megaprojects, which are Systems-of-Systems
exhibiting high degrees of complexity (Chang, Complexity
et al., 2013) & Number of
Interactions
• Complexity – emergent issues are
unpredictable Chaos
• Philip Tetlock, (Wharton) on expert forecasting
- some accuracy up to a year in the future
Number of
connections
IMPOSSIBILITY OF DETERMINISTIC
PLANNING

Herbert Simon Horst Rittel

Henri Poincaré Bounded rationality Wicked problems
Chaos theory satisfice not optimize

Russel Ackoff
Messy Problems

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COGNITIVE
BIASES
• Optimism Bias

• Inconsistencies and inadequate

consideration of predictability

• Ignoring distributional data

• “Parkinson’s Law” work expands to fill

the allocated capacity (Parkinson,
1955)

• “Students’ Syndrome” work is

procrastinated to the last moment
(Goldratt, 1997)

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 HEURISTICS & BIASES

• Judgment biases and their effects

• Prospect Theory
• Planning fallacy
• Optimism Bias
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AI & ML FOR PROJECT PERFORMANCE

Previous ML
Projects models
Cost & Schedule
forecasts
Project
Optimized
features
workflows
Reduced risk
Current
Project AI
algorithms
 REFERENCE CLASS FORECASTING

• RCF uplifts cost or schedule forecasts by referring to past

track records
 ML WITH RCF

• Project specific forecasts

• Cost and Schedule overrun risk
• Evidence shows that the same uplift does not apply to every reference class
project for a given risk percentile.
• Our ML models correct RCF uplifts by learning the relationship between
project features and performance outcomes, helped by the chosen features’
environmental validity.
• Ameliorate principal agent issues, correct biases, and reduce overruns
SYSTEMS
ENGINEERING • Problem discovery and formulation
SE is a transdisciplinary approach
and means to enable the realization
• Solution definition and realization,
of successful systems. • Operational use,
Successful systems must satisfy the
needs of their customers, users and • Sustainment,
other stakeholders.
• Disposal.

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INCOSE
• A system is an interacting combination of system
elements that accomplish a defined objective(s).

• A systems engineer is a person or role who supports

this transdisciplinary approach.

• The systems engineer serves to elicit and translate

customer needs into specifications that can be realized
by the system development team.

https://www.sebokwiki.org/wiki/Guide_to_the_Systems_E
ngineering_Body_of_Knowledge_(SEBoK)

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