Primavera Risk Analysis for MS Project |

Primavera Risk Analysis for MS Project

Using Primavera Risk Analysis with Microsoft Project

This document is an extract from the Primavera Risk Analysis help file version 8.7 SP5.
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Table of Contents

1. MS Project Risk Tutorial 1

1.1. MSP Risk Tutorial 1
1.2. MSP Risk Tutorial - 1. Entering risk data in MS Project 1-4
1.3. MSP Risk Tutorial - 2. Progress Wizard 4-6
1.4. MSP Risk Tutorial - 3. Opening MS Project file in Primavera Risk Analysis 6-8
1.5. MSP Risk Tutorial - 4. Running risk analysis 8-10
1.6. MSP Risk Tutorial - 5. Viewing the risk results 10-14
1.7. MSP Risk Tutorial - 6. Risk Report 14-16
1.8. MSP Risk Tutorial - 7. Updating the risk results to MS Project 16-17
1.9. MSP Risk Tutorial - 8. Viewing the results in MS Project 17-19
2. MSP - Opening, saving and updating Microsoft Project files 19-20
3. MSP - Adding the Primavera Risk Analysis tool bar to MS Project 20-21
4. PDF Documentation and Printing Help 21-22

1 MS Project Risk Tutorial

1.1 MSP Risk Tutorial

To print this tutorial see Printing Help Topics and Chapters (Section 4)
This quick tutorial takes you through the steps of opening a sample Microsoft® Project project, running a
risk analysis in Primavera Risk Analysis and updating the results back to the Microsoft® Project project.
Microsoft is a registered trademark of Microsoft Corporation in the United States and/or other
countries.

Our aims are

 To find out the chance of completing the project on time and budget given that there is uncertainty in
our task durations.
 To include probabilistic events in the model.
 To find a more realistic completion date.
 To identify tasks that are likely to cause the project to be delayed to help us manage our project more
effectively.
 To view the 50% and 80% schedules.

Tutorial topics
1. Entering risk data into MS Project
2. Opening project in Primavera Risk Analysis
3. Running risk analysis
4. Viewing the results
5. Creating Risk Report
6. Updating the results to MS Project
7. Viewing the results in MS Project

1.2 MSP Risk Tutorial - 1. Entering risk data in MS Project

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Add the Primavera Risk Analysis tool bar to MS Project

The Primavera Risk Analysis tool bar and views can be added to MS Project.

It helps you enter and view risk data in MS Project (e.g. three point estimates, 50% schedule, criticality
index).
If the tool bar has not already been added to MS Project it is recommended this is completed now.
See MSP - Adding the Primavera Risk Analysis tool bar to MS Project (Section 3)

It is not essential to add the Primavera Risk Analysis tool bar to MS Project. For example you can add
the columns for User Duration 1, 2 and 3 to MS Project and use these to enter your three point
estimates.

Open the sample project in MS Project

 Start up MS Project.
 File | Open. Open the file called House01.mpp located in C:\Program Files\Oracle\Primavera Risk
Analysis\Samples
 The sample is read only so save it as another file. File | Save As.
 Click Save.

The project will look something like this:

Figure: Tutorial sample project in MS Project.

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Entering 3 point duration estimates

 Click on Duration Inputs tool bar button

This displays the columns for entering the Min, Likely and Max durations and Duration Correlation.

Figure: Three point estimates entered in MS Project.

 To save you time the 3 point estimates have already been entered.

The Quick Risk tool bar button can be used to automatically populate the Min Dur, Likely Dur and
Max Dur fields with values based on a percentage of the remaining duration.
The Duration Function column allows distributions other than triangular. For example if you entered
"Uniform(2;10)" you would get a uniform distribution varying from 2 to 10 days.
The three point estimates are being stored in MS Projects user fields. In this example we are using MS
Project user fields: Duration 1, Duration 2 and Duration 3.

Duration Correlation
If the "Lower Brickwork" takes a long time it is likely that the "Upper Brickwork" will take a long time too.
Duration Correlation can be used to model this relationship.

Figure: Entering "9[85%]" as shown adds an 85% correlation between "Upper Brickwork" and the task
with Unique ID "9", i.e. "Lower Brickwork".

Probabilistic branching
"Test electrics" passes 80% of the time and fails the other 20%. A probabilistic branch can be used to
model the impact on the schedule depending on the outcome of the test.

 Click on the Probabilistic and Costs inputs tool bar button

This displays the columns for modeling Probabilistic Branching and % Existence.

Figure: The probabilistic formula has been entered as "12[80%];11[20%]". The Unique ID's are used
to identify the tasks in the probabilistic branch.
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Task Existence
After "Strip off roof cover" we believe there is a 15% chance of finding rotten supports. Task Existence
can be used to model this uncertainty. During the risk analysis the "Rotten Supports" task will appear
15% of the time. When it appears it will have an impact on the project finish and cost.

Figure The value "15" indicates the % chance of the task occuring.

Costs
Each task has a remaining cost. This cost is used by Primavera Risk Analysis to model the cost
uncertainty. During the risk analysis the cost of a task is increased or reduced proportionally with its
duration. Probabilistic tasks will have a zero remaining cost for the iterations they do not exist.

Great. All the risk data has been entered. We will now look at the Progress Wizard.

1.3 MSP Risk Tutorial - 2. Progress Wizard

About the Progress Wizard

If a project has progressed then the project uncertainty and risk affects does not affect the completed
tasks.
It is possible in MS Project to progress tasks out of line with the Status Date, e.g. a task can be
complete and scheduled in the future to the right of the Status Date. The Progress Wizard can be used to
identify and optionally adjust these type of tasks.
In the tutorial project the task 'Erect Scaffold' has been progressed but is in front of the Status Date
shown as a red line:

We will use the Progress Wizard to identify this task and any others that may not be progressed in line
with the Status Date.

Run the Progress Wizard

 Click on the tool bar button to start the Wizard, or use the menu command Primavera Risk
Analysis | Progress Wizard.
 Click OK to save any unsaved changes if prompted.
 Click Next to move to Setting the Status Date .
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Figure: Checking and optionally setting the project Status Date.

 In the tutorial project the Status Date is already set to the "05/02/2006 17:00:00". Leave this date as
it is.
 Click Next and the Wizard will look for any tasks that are not progressed in line with the Status Date:

Figure: Options for adjusting "Erect Scaffold" which is completed but it is ahead of the Status Date.
The task 'Erect Scaffold' has been completed so it should not be delaying any of the succeeding tasks that
are scheduled in the future after the Status Date. To correct this we will use the Move actual dates to
before status date to schedule the task behind the Status Date.
 Select the option Move actual dates to before status date.
 Click Next. This will find the next task. As there are no more progress problems the Wizard finishes:
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Figure: Wizard finishes and displays the finish date difference and with the option to display the
changes made to each task.
 Click Finish to complete the Wizard.

The 'Erect Scaffold' task is now behind the Status Date.

Excellent. Next we will open the project in Primavera Risk Analysis.

1.4 MSP Risk Tutorial - 3. Opening MS Project file in Primavera Risk Analysis

Our project has 3 point estimates for the durations and we have also included some additional information
to model probabilistic tasks and duration correlation.
We will now open the file in Primavera Risk Analysis ready for the risk analysis.

 Click on the Open In Primavera Risk Analysis tool bar button

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Figure: The Microsoft Project Import Mappings dialog is displayed.

 Click OK in the Microsoft Project Import Mappings dialog to accept the default mappings.
 After file has opened in Primavera Risk Analysis click Save when prompted.
 Click on the Gantt Chart tab.
The project should look something like this in Primavera Risk Analysis:
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Figure: Project displayed in Primavera Risk Analysis.

Notes
 The Import Check tab displays Start Check and Finish Check columns that display any differences
between the MSP and Primavera Risk Analysis schedule. Check the columns for any differences - there
maybe differences of a day for milestones or zero duration activities - these will not affect the results.
 On the MSP Import Check sheet the grey bars display the Start Check and Finish Check graphically.
The grey bars are the MSP schedule and the bars above them are the Primavera Risk Analysis
schedule.

Viewing risk inputs

 To view all the risk inputs for the project - Risk | Risk Summary.
 To view individual risk data from the main screen - Click on a task and choose the Risk and
Uncertainty tab in the Task Details.
Good. Now we are ready to run the risk analysis...

1.5 MSP Risk Tutorial - 4. Running risk analysis

After opening the MS Project project in Primavera Risk Analysis a risk analysis can be run.

Run the Risk analysis

 Risk | Run Risk Analysis or click

 Click Options... to display the Risk Analysis Options dialog.
 Change the options to those shown below:
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Figure: Risk Analysis options dialog displayed before running analysis.

 In the Risk Analysis Options dialog click on the Percentiles... button.

 Set up the values as shown below (they may already be set up like this):
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Figure: Setting up risk percentiles to calculate the P50 and P80 dates and costs.

 Click OK to close the percentiles dialog.

 Click OK to close the Risk Analysis Options dialog.
 Click the Analyze button.
 Any warnings or errors will be displayed. In this example this usually only happens if one or more of
the minimum, most likely or maximum have been incorrectly entered in MS Project (e.g. The
minimum duration is greater than the maximum).
 Click on Step button to step through individual iterations. The step through allows you to check to see
if the analysis is proceeding as expected. Notice as you step through how the activities move around
and some move on and off the critical path.

Also notice as you step through how the 'Rotten supports ', 'Electrics fail' and 'Electrics pass' appear
and disappear due to the probabilistic values we gave them.

As you step through each iteration you can scroll around and format the Gantt Chart area.
 Use the Complete button to run analysis without re -drawing each step.

Using Step and Go require Primavera Risk Analysis to redraw after each iteration - this can
significantly increase the time taken to complete the risk analysis. Once you are happy that the
risk analysis is proceeding as expected, use the Complete button and it will be a lot faster!

1.6 MSP Risk Tutorial - 5. Viewing the risk results

After the risk analysis has been run the Distribution Graph is displayed.
The Distribution Graph can be used to display distributions for Finish Dates, Start Dates, Durations, Total
Float, Resources or Costs for any of the tasks in the plan or for the entire plan.
The name of the selected distribution is displayed in the graph title.

The chance of completing the project on time

 Select the Finish Date tab if not already selected.
 On the right hand side under Highlighters read the Deterministic probability (21%).
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 On right hand side read the 80% date (29/Jun/06).

Figure: Finish date distribution for the entire plan.

The chance of completing a selected task on time

After the risk analysis the default is to display the distribution for the 'Entire Plan'. However during the
analysis distributions for every task are stored. When the analysis is complete it is possible to view the
distribution for any selected task.
 Select '00017 - Recover roof' from the task tree on the left of the Distribution Graph.
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Figure: Finish data distribution for a selected task.

Cost distribution
First we need to change back to the Entire Plan.
 Select '<Entire Plan>' from the task tree on the left of the Distribution Graph.
Now display the Cost distribution.
 Select Cost tab: Read the Deterministic Cost probability.
 On right hand side read the 80% cost.

Return to the Gantt Chart

 Close the Distribution Graph.

Criticality Index
The sample project has activities in parallel. It is therefore likely that the critical path may vary due to the
uncertainty on the task durations. We can use the criticality index to identify which tasks are likely to be
on the critical path. The criticality index is a measure of how often a task appeared on the critical path
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during the risk analysis.

 Click on the Risk Outputs sheet.

The criticality index is displayed in one of the columns on the right hand side. The criticality index
helps identify those tasks that are likely to cause a delay to the project. You will notice that some of
the critical tasks in the project have a lower criticality index than those that are not critical. This
shows us that the traditional critical path does not necessarily give us a true indication of which are
the most important tasks, but the criticality index does.
 Right click on the Criticality Index column heading and choose Sort Descending.

Which tasks are likely to delay the project?

Intuitively we know that the tasks likely to delay the project most often are those on the critical path with
a large amount of uncertainty. If we can find a strong positive correlation between the duration of a task
and the duration of the project we will know that the task is influencing the project duration.
Duration Sensitivity is a measure of this correlation and can be used to identify tasks that influence the
project duration. The correlation between each task and the project duration is calculated as a value
between -100% and +100%. The task with the highest positive value is the task that influences the
project duration the most.
After running a risk analysis the Duration Sensitivity values can be displayed on a Tornado Chart.

 Click on the Tornado icon to display the Tornado chart.

 Click on the Duration Sensitivity tab if not already selected.
 Check the Ignore negative values option.

Figure: Duration Sensitivity formatted to display the top 10 tasks.

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Great. We now know more about the risk and uncertainty in our project. Now we will create a risk
report...

1.7 MSP Risk Tutorial - 6. Risk Report

Primavera Risk Analysis can create a report using the Summary Risk Report.
The report includes distributions and tornado charts for the project cost and finish.
Additional distributions and tornado charts can be created for selected Key Tasks in the project. This
option allows Key Tasks other than the Finish Date to be selected and reported on. In this example below
we have added 'Recover roof' to the report as we are worried that we may not recover the roof in time for
the start of the monsoon season!
The assumptions for each task (e.g. three point estimate, task existence) can also be included at the end
of the report.

 If the Tornado Chart is still open, close it now.

 Reports | Summary Risk Report
 Select the options for Risk Inputs and Risk Outputs shown below.

Include the selection for '00017 - Recover roof' so its Distribution and Tornado chart are added to the
report.
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Figure: Risk Summary report dialog with options and tasks selected.
 Click Build Report and your HTML Summary Risk Report is created.

Figure: The Summary Risk Report.

Excellent. Now we will look at updating risk analysis results back to MS Project...

1.8 MSP Risk Tutorial - 7. Updating the risk results to MS Project

The risk analysis results in Primavera Risk Analysis can be updated to the MS Project plan. The MS Project
user fields are used to store these results.
We can also update risk inputs such as the minimum and maximum durations. This allows any changes
that were made to these values while in Primavera Risk Analysis to be updated in the MS Project project.

Update the risk results to MS Project

 In Primavera Risk Analysis select File | Microsoft Project | Update Project...
 Click the Load button, select 'MSPMappings01' and click OK.
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 As well as the criticality index and duration sensitivity we are also mapping across the P50 and P80
dates.
 Click Update Now.
 The results are then automatically updated to the MS Project plan.

Great. We will now view the results in MS Project...

1.9 MSP Risk Tutorial - 8. Viewing the results in MS Project

After the risk analysis results have been updated in the MS Project plan they can be viewed in the MS
Project.

Displaying the criticality in MS Project

 Return to MS Project.

 Click on the Criticality and Sensitivity Output tool bar button

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 This view has bars that are colored based on their criticality - blue if less than 50%, light red if
between 50% and 89% and dark red if greater than 90%. These ranges can be changed using the
options available in MS Project. Also displayed are the duration sensitivity values (low values and
negative values are due to random correlation between the task duration and the project duration and
should be ignored).
 The important tasks that are likely to delay the project are immediately visible.

Displaying P50 and P80 bars in MS Project

 The P50 and P80 schedule give a indication of when each task is likely to take place given the
uncertainty in the project. They are useful as they are a more realistic date for the start and finish of
each task. Sometimes the P50 date is used as the internal company baseline and the P80 date used
as the client baseline.

 Click on one of the output tool bar buttons: P50 Schedule P80 Schedule or P50 and
P80 Finish Dates

Samples of the reports displayed are shown below:

Figure: P50 Schedule in MS Project

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Figure: P80 Schedule in MS Project

Figure: P50 and P80 Finish Dates in MS Project

Well done!
That completes the risk tutorial, we hope you have found it useful and informative.

2 MSP - Opening, saving and updating Microsoft Project files

Primavera Risk Analysis can open .mpp, .mpd, and .xml MS Project files.
Opening a .mpp file requires a copy of MS Project 2000 or later to be installed on the PC.

To open a Microsoft Project file in Primavera Risk Analysis

1. File | Microsoft Project | Open Project...
2. Locate the required file and click Open.
3. A dialog is displayed that allows import mappings to be defined. For example you can map Duration 1,
2 and 3 to the minimum, most likely and maximum risk durations.
4. Set up any required mappings and click OK.
5. Primavera Risk Analysis displays the workspace selected in the import mappings dialog (default
workspace selected is MSP.wkspc).

2.1 Saving Microsoft Project files in Primavera Risk Analysis

Primavera Risk Analysis can save plans in the Microsoft Project format .mpp
Saving a plan as a .mpp requires a copy of MS Project 2000 or later to be installed on the PC.

To save a file as a Microsoft Project

1. File | Microsoft Project | Export to .mpp.
Saving a plan as a .mpp requires a installation of MS Project 2000 or later on the PC.
2. Enter the file name.
3. Click Save .

2.2 Updating Microsoft Project files with risk results and inputs
Results and inputs from a Primavera Risk Analysis plan can be updated in MS Project.
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To use the MS Project update the file must have been saved in MS Project as a .mpd or a .mpp file and
then opened in Primavera Risk Analysis.
Updating a .mpp file requires an installation of MS Project 2000 or later on the PC.

To update a .mpd or .mpp MS Project file

1. Open the MSP file in Primavera Risk Analysis.
2. Enter uncertainty on your activities. For example run a Duration Quick Risk to quickly enter minimum,
most likely and maximum durations (Risk | Duration Quick Risk).
3. Run a risk analysis (Risk | Run Risk Analysis).
4. Close any reports that are opened.
5. File | Microsoft Project | Update Project...
6. In the Microsoft Project Mappings dialog use the drop down lists and Add button to choose which
Primavera Risk Analysis fields are mapped to which MS Project fields.
7. Click Update Now.

MSProject Errors
An error file called ‘MSP_Error_Log.txt’ is created in the Primavera Risk Analysis application folder
containing any errors generated by MS Project.
One error will usually always exist when exporting as .mpp - this is caused when Primavera Risk
Analysis tries to create the ‘Standard’ calendar in MSP but because the calendar already exists an error
is thrown.

3 MSP - Adding the Primavera Risk Analysis tool bar to MS Project

A Primavera Risk Analysis tool bar can be added to MS Project. This gives access to risk input/output
views and wizards.

Launches Duration Quick Risk wizard for applying three point estimates to tasks.

Runs the Progress Wizard to identify and optionally adjust tasks that have not been progressed in
line with the project Status Date.

Opens currently open MSP project in Primavera Risk Analysis.

Displays a view in MS Project with duration uncertainty and correlation inputs.

Displays a view in MS Project with Probabilistic and Cost inputs.

Displays a view in MS project with criticality and sensitivity outputs.

Displays a view in MS project with P50 schedule outputs.

Displays a view in MS project with P80 schedule outputs.

Displays a view in MS project with P50 and P80 finish dates.

To add or update the Primavera Risk Analysis MS Project tool bar

The tool bar requires a number of custom Views, Tables and Fields in MS Project.
The tool bar and these items can be added to MS Project if they are deleted or are missing.
You must have MS Project 2000 or later installed and have write access to the Global Project Template
(Global.mpt)
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 Run Primavera Risk Analysis.

 File | Microsoft Project | Add Toolbar and Views to Project...
 Click Yes in the message box.
 If requested click Enable Macros - this allows Primavera Risk Analysis to access the MS Project Global
Template and add the tool bars, views and fields.
 MS Project will be started and the tool bar is registered as an add-in and the views, tables and fields
are added to the MS Project Global Template.

4 PDF Documentation and Printing Help

PDF Documentation
Some of the on-line help (e.g. tutorials) can be found in the Documentation folder that is created when
the Primavera Risk Analysis software is installed. The documentation is saved in the Adobe PDF format.
The default installation folder for the documentation is:
C:\Program Files\Oracle\Primavera Risk Analysis\Documentation

Printing an individual help topic

After printing a help topic, Windows can sometimes freeze the help file. If this occurs, right-click
on the Primavera Risk Analysis help application icon in Windows Start menu Taskbar (usually
located at the bottom of the screen) and choose Restore.
1. Select the required topic.
2. Click on the Print button.

3. Choose Print the selected topic.

Printing a chapter of the help

After printing a chapter of the help, Windows can sometimes freeze the help file. If this occurs right-
click on the Primavera Risk Analysis help application icon in Windows Start menu Taskbar (usually
located at the bottom of the screen) and choose Restore .

1. Select the required chapter.

2. Click on the Print button
3. Choose Print the selected heading and all the subtopics.
The example below has the Risk Tutorial - Part 1 selected. Clicking on the Print button and selecting
Print the selected heading and all the subtopics will print out the whole of the 'Risk Tutorial - Part 1'.
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