Climate Migration and Urban Planning System - A Study of Bangladesh
Climate Migration and Urban Planning System - A Study of Bangladesh
Climate Migration and Urban Planning System - A Study of Bangladesh
ABSTRACT
Amid rising global temperatures and a changing physical environment, climate change has led to the devel-
opment of a new social group called ‘‘Climate Migrants or Climate Refugees.’’ In 1995 approximately 25 million
people worldwide were considered to be environment or climate refugees; it is anticipated that this number
will increase to 200 million by 2050. Over the last decade rising sea levels, tropical cyclones, flash floods, soil
salinity, and river erosion have emerged as the environmental or climatic push factors that have forced highly
exposed and vulnerable coastal communities to migrate. In most cases people abandoned their settlements in
rural and coastal areas and moved to towns and cities. Such push factors lead to chaotic and overwhelming
levels of urbanization with attendant congestion, poor housing, and pollution choking urban areas. Planning
systems in developing countries like Bangladesh have found it difficult to accommodate climate change-
related migration and uncontrolled urbanization. Climate change is a major challenge for most coastal
countries and this issue has to be addressed at various levels of planning including national, regional, and
urban contexts. Consequently planning policy and practice need to evolve a vertically integrated decision-
making framework linking national, regional, and local planning to address climate migration.
163
164 AHSAN, KARUPPANNAN, AND KELLETT
system; how to address this new type of migrant and pro- Despite debates concerning definitions of climate ref-
vide housing, services, and economic opportunities is ugee, migrants, or displaced communities, the Interna-
proving to be a major challenge. This research aims to ad- tional Organization of Migration (IOM) developed a
dress and integrate climate migration and the associated working definition of climate change-related migration:6
challenges with the urban planning system, specifically fo-
persons or groups of persons who, for compelling reasons
cusing on Bangladesh which is a developing nation. When of sudden or progressive changes in the environment that
prevailing urban planning processes in poor and developing adversely affect their lives or living conditions, are obliged
countries like Bangladesh are vulnerable to climate change, to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either
they do not foresee the consequences of climate migrants temporarily or permanently, and who move either within
and as such are unprepared to deal with unplanned or their country or abroad.
unpredicted urbanization.
Since there is currently a theoretical debate between
traditional migration processes and environmental mi-
DEFINING CLIMATE MIGRANTS
gration, it is stated that migration due to climate change
may be considered a subset of migration and it could be
The links between climate change and migration are
defined as:
not well defined and classified in traditional migration
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theory; although current global statistics show that forced persons or groups of persons who, for compelling reasons
migration is increasingly being induced by climate of sudden or progressive changes in the environment as a
change. Currently the concern is how migration theory result of climate change that adversely affect their lives or
living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes,
and international legal frameworks will define those vic-
or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and
tims who are forced to migrate due to climate change
who move either within their country or abroad.7
events; will they be categorized as ‘‘climate migrants,’’
‘‘environmental refugees,’’ or ‘‘climate refugees.’’3 While a detailed definition of climate migrants or en-
Classical migration theories, in general ignore envi- vironment migrants is lacking, a number of studies have
ronment or climate as drivers of migration. Bridging the documented historical evidence linking climate change
gap between traditional migration theories and climate and migration. In Bangladesh, cyclones and floods are the
change is a pressing priority. The Intergovernmental Pa- two main drivers that influence environment migration or
nel on Climate Change (IPCC) argued in the Working displacement, whereas other climate change actions are
Group II report to extend the definition of refugee in the considered to be indirect drivers of human displacement.8
1951 UN Refugee Convention in order to include envi-
ronment or climate migrants because they are seeking CLIMATE MIGRATION AND URBANIZATION
refuge from the government of that particular country IN BANGLADESH
where they migrate.4 Migration theories generally con-
tend that the decision to migrate depends on a number Bangladesh is the world’s seventh largest populated na-
factors and personal circumstances. On the other hand tion with 157 million people within 143,998 km2; out of that
climate migration infers a mono-causality type. Popula- 157 million 30% are living in urban areas.9 Internal migration
tion forecasting models have to develop a distinction is one of the key drivers of rapid urbanization in Bangladesh.
between traditional migration and climate migration. Figure 1 below highlights the historical and estimated ur-
Forecasting models are rare in migration research. In banization rate in Bangladesh from 1950 to 2030.10
some context climate change is linked to human migra- The urban population growth rate in Bangladesh is
tion but there are some contradictory factors as well.5 approximately 3.5% where 1.3% is the natural urban
Climate migration or displacement is not only the calcu- growth rate and the remainder (2.2%) is influenced by
lation or counting the number of people migrating from internal migration. During the last decade climate change
one place to another or seeking refuge. Climate migration has emerged as an environmental push factor and has
is also a mechanism that interlinks demographic change been credited with amplifying the migration rate.11
with natural or environmental stress. It is not merely an
economic or political issue; it is associated with environ- 6
mental and social issues. International Organizations of Migration (IOM), ‘‘Migration
and Climate Change,’’ International Organization of Migration Re-
search Series 33 (May 2008) 31.
7
Sward, Jon, ‘‘Migration and climate change: how will climate
3
Dun, Olivia and François Gemenne, ‘‘Defining environmental shift affect migration trend,’’ Briefing on Migration, Sussex Centre
migration,’’ Refugee Study Centre Review Paper (Oxford Department for Migration Research, Sussex University (Sept. 2008).
8
of International, Development, University of Oxford, Oct. 2008). Akter Thahera, ‘‘Climate change and flow of environmental dis-
4
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), ‘‘Assess- placement in Bangladesh,’’ Research paper, Environment Unit of Un-
ment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed nayan Onneshan, National development NGO, Dhaka (Jul. 2009).
9
system,’’ Working Group II, Fourth assessment report for Inter- Bangladesh Government, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics
governmnetal Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University (2007). (BBS), Population Census Report, 5th revised report (2010).
5 10
Raleigh, C, Jordan, L, and Salehyan, I, ‘‘Assessing Impact of United Nations, ‘‘Urban Population Report for Global Po-
Climate Change on Migration and Conflict, Social dimension of pulation Estimation,’’ Population Report 2010, United Nations Po-
climate change,’’ Middle East and North Africa, Sustainable Devel- pulation Database (2010).
11
opment concept note, for World Bank (2008), <http://www Bangladesh Government, BBS, Population Census Report,
.cmimarseille.org> (Last accessed on Jan. 21, 2011). 5th revised report (2010).
CLIMATE MIGRATION AND URBAN PLANNING IN BANGLADESH 165
45
40
Urbanization rate
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2030
30
25
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20
15
10
5
0
1990 1995 2000 2005
GDP Poverty gap ratio
At present the total hardcore poor in urban areas is In 1991–92 the incidence of poverty in urban areas was
about 14.6 million, according to the World Bank, ‘‘who are 46.7% compared to 47.8% in rural areas. This situation
earning less than US$1 per day.’’ Furthermore about 25% was reversed in 1995–96 when rural poverty was 47.1%
of this hardcore poor have migrated from rural areas and and urban poverty was 49.7%. By the year 2000 urban
they have done so because of natural calamities and poverty had risen to 52.5% when the urban population
changes in the local physical environment, for example was just half of the total rural population.15
loss of farm land, loss of houses, and income opportuni- Within the last 30 years Bangladesh has been hit by
ties.12 This rapid migration is more prominent in Dhaka, more than 100 cyclones and about 60 flash floods along
capital of Bangladesh, according to the Department of with other natural disasters including epidemics,
International Development (DFID).13 The DFID annual drought, and heat waves. The coastal areas of Bangladesh
report estimates that about 55% and 32% of this city’s are the home of almost 50 million people (1/3 of the total
population are absolute and hardcore poor respectively. population) who are highly exposed to these natural di-
Whereas only 2% (the elites) of the urbanites enjoy 15– sasters. For example about 9.2 million people, all from the
20% of its residential areas, 50% of the poor and middle south coast region of Bangladesh, were affected by storm
class people occupy only 6% of residential areas. Since the surge and tropical cyclones in 2007–2009. 19.3 million
1990s the country’s GDP has increased due to foreign people were affected by floods over the whole of Ban-
investment and international trade, but at the same time gladesh during 1984 to 2007. Victims of natural disasters
the poverty gap between rich and poor has widened may be displaced from the security of their homes; some
considerably. This poverty gap is more distinct in urban are displaced for a short time eventually returning and
than rural areas. Figure 2 illustrates the growth of GDP restart lives at the point of origin while others permanently
and the increase of the poverty gap in Bangladesh.14 migrate. Figure 3 shows the natural disasters in Bangladesh
between 1980 and 2010.16 Floods and cyclones are the most
frequent and destructive natural forces.
At the same time the rural-urban population distribu-
12
Shafi, A. ‘‘Poverty Alleviation and Urbanization in Bangla- tion has also changed at an alarming very rapid rate.
desh,’’ Research Paper for Urban Management Program, Asian De- According to the projected population census of 2001, by
velopment Bank, Bangkok (1994).
13
Department of International Development (DFID), Rural and
15
Urban Development Case Study—Bangladesh, DFID, Rural Devel- Bangladesh Government, BBS, Preliminary report on household
opment Report for Bangladesh, Dhaka (2004). income and expenditure, Ministry of Planning, Dhaka (2001).
14 16
UNEP (United Nations Environment Program), Global Vir- Université catholique de Louvain, EM-DAT: The OFDA/
tual University E-learning program, United Nations University CRED International Disaster Database, Brussels (2009). <http://
(UNU), Tokyo, 2009. <http://globalis.gvu.unu.edu/indicator www.preventionweb.net/english/countries/statistics/?cid ¼ 14>
_detail.cfm?Country> (last visited on Jan. 10, 2011). (last visited Mar. 26, 2011).
166 AHSAN, KARUPPANNAN, AND KELLETT
2010 the rural-urban population will be roughly equal economy. Climate migrants coming from the poor commu-
and by the end of 2020 the urban population will be nities along the coast areas have located themselves in the
double that of rural areas. Natural growth and traditional urban fringe and slums where they have cheap accommo-
Downloaded by University of Florida E-journal package from www.liebertpub.com at 07/24/19. For personal use only.
rural-urban migration cannot be the sole reasons for such dation and access to low paid employment. With the help of
a dramatic urban influx. Rather it could be argued that local and national NGOs (non-government organizations)
external forces are influencing the population distribution named ‘‘Pothik Krreith’’ and ‘‘Sheba,’’ a mass scale dialogue
and challenging the urban system in Bangladesh. Between program was conducted with the local residents (around 700
1980 and 2010 natural disasters have acted as direct push people) to inform them of the research aim and to identify
factors for internal migration to the extent that it has al- targeted people who had migrated due to varying climatic
tered the urbanization pattern and become a challenge for hazards. From that mass scale dialogue and participant list
the urban planning system. Figure 4 shows the rural and about 200 respondents were chosen as the targeted com-
urban population distribution in Bangladesh and it clearly munity. The targeted people had all migrated or been dis-
demonstrates how the ratio has changed since 2010, right placed from their original homes due to cyclones, flash
after cyclone SIDR 2007 and AILA 2009.17 floods, river erosion, or drought. The selected stratum was
The above two figures (3 and 4) clearly reveal that over chosen from different Thanas (a Thana is a local government
the last decade the intensity and frequency of natural administrative boundary, mainly the area under a police
disasters, especially cyclones and floods, have increased station jurisdiction) so that diversity could be reflected in the
while the distribution of population between rural and sample. Out of the 200 selected people, 100 respondents were
urban areas has also changed. This evidence raises the chosen through systematic random sampling, every alternate
question ‘‘do climate events influence forced migration person being chosen to provide answers for the question-
and changes urbanization pattern that need to be ad- naire survey. Figure 5 illustrates how the targeted commu-
dressed in urban planning systems?’’ nity was selected in regard to the questionnaire survey.
Over the last two decades frequent disasters, increases
RESEARCH METHOD in soil salinity, river erosion, floods, tropical cyclones, and
storm surges have forced the marginal coastal commu-
The south coast of Bangladesh is home to 35 million in- nities to migrate to other destinations in search of alter-
habitants at a density of 738 persons/km2. This density is native livelihoods. Bangladesh has lost hundreds of
projected to increase to between 40 and 50 million by 2050.18 thousands of lives due to catastrophic cyclones in recent
These coastal communities mainly depend on subsistence history, one of the latest being Cyclone SIDR in Novem-
agriculture and fishing on the fertile plains along rivers and ber 2007, which causing almost 4,000 deaths. Moreover
the coast. To understand forced migration and rapid ur- the frequency of cyclones in Bangladesh has increased
banization in Bangladesh, this study involved a field survey more than five times compared to the last three decades.19
in one of that country’s south coastal cities—Khulna—which Following SIDR, Cyclone AILA attacked on May 25, 2009.
is the third largest city and coastal divisional headquarters About half a million people were forced to leave their
on the south coast with 4394.46 km2. The total population in homes. More than 300 people died, about 1,120 people
Khulna city is 2.5 million with a 3.8% population growth rate went missing and more than 200,000 were trapped in
per annum. About 5.7% of the total urban population in water.20 In many such cases productive farmland is ren-
Bangladesh is living in Khulna city, because of its industrial dered useless as a result of inundation and subsequent
17 19
Bangladesh Government, BBS, Population Census Report, World Bank, ‘‘Bangladesh: Climate Change and Sustainable
5th revised report (2010). Development Report,’’ South Asian Regional Report 2000 (prepared
18
Hossain, Rakibul, ‘‘Climate change environmental forced for presenting country assessment report by World Bank Rural
migrants and Rural-Urban migration: are big cities prepared in Development Unit, Dhaka, 2000).
20
Bangladesh’’ (Conference paper, BRAC University, 2009). Paper Graham, L, ‘‘Bangladesh: 100 thousand still stranded from
presented at Urban Poverty and Climate Change—Infra- cyclone Aila,’’ Green fudge, UNDP, Dhaka (2009),<http://www
structures of Development Conference, BRAC University, BRAC .greenfudge.org/2010/05/26/bangladesh-100-thousand-still-stranded-
centre, Dhaka; June 2009. from-cyclone-aila/> (last visited Aug. 15, 2010).
CLIMATE MIGRATION AND URBAN PLANNING IN BANGLADESH 167
salinity and in others it is permanently flooded, forcing nonexistent infrastructure and facilities in cities tend to
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residents to migrate. Such migration has taken place push the migrant communities below the poverty line,
mostly into the southern coastal cities in Bangladesh.21 In and this represents a difficult problem for the already
their search for alternative livelihoods displaced com- stretched city planning system. Forced migrants quickly
munities generally opt for urban destinations where em- accommodate themselves in urban fringe areas and
ployment opportunities and livelihoods are perceived to sometimes squat on undeveloped government land. Un-
be available; hence they can be labeled climate migrants. foreseen levels of climate migrants affect orderly devel-
Figure 6 draws the survey results and depicts the expe- opment of cities, urban land use, and urban economy. The
riences of people who migrated to cities due to disasters challenge for the urban planning system is how to address
caused by climate change.22 the consequences of migration induced by climate change.
Migration resulting from climate change has increased
since 2006 due to frequent disasters in the coastal region. INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE INDUCED
This followed a spike of forced migration due to climatic MIGRATION AND URBANIZATION IN THE URBAN
hazards began in 1988 after a coastal flash flood. The PLANNING SYSTEM
highest level of migrations occurred in 2007 and 2009
immediately after Cyclones SIDR and AILA, which re- Planning strategies and policy in Bangladesh are de-
sulted in millions of people in coastal marginal commu- veloped and implemented at the national, regional, and
nities becoming homeless and helpless. The fact that these local levels,25 and they roughly correspond to other
migrants almost all sought refuge in a limited number of countries’ federal, state, and local levels or central, pro-
urban centers led to an unforeseen impact on the capacity vincial, and local levels. According to current planning
of these towns and cities to accommodate the climate practice in Bangladesh the ‘‘national level plan’’ is a
migrants. The urban planning system was badly com- mainly strategic plan while the financial plan covers
promised, as were land use dynamics and more impor- economic and development issues. The national level
tantly the livelihoods of migrants. Figure 723 shows the planning process also addresses emerging issues and in-
volume climate induced migration to Khulna since 1988.24 corporates policy guidelines that address those challenges
Climate-driven environmental changes and subsequent both at the regional and local levels. National level
migration on the scale reported here have huge potential planning has a long-term vision and it is generally funded
to impact on many aspects of life in the receiving towns by government revenue and foreign government aid. The
and cities, adversely affecting urban land use, increasing regional level planning system is responsible for prepar-
urban poverty, and generating high demands for housing, ing planning policy and guidelines for the individual re-
sanitation, water supply, healthcare, and other services. gion and supporting the local level planning authorities to
High demand coupled with limited, undeveloped, or develop and implement plans at the local level based on
the national and regional planning policies.26
Both the regional and local level planning systems are
21
Bangladesh Government, Ministry of Environment and responsible for ensuring quality of life through a better
Forestry, Dealing with disaster and climate change in Bangladesh urban planning approach that considers all urban plan-
(2008), Climate Change Cell report.
22 ning challenges associated with the planning compo-
Ahsan Reazul, Karuppannan, S and Kellett, J., ‘‘Climate mi-
gration and Change of urban land uses in Bangladesh’’ (Pro- nents, such has housing, sanitation, and land-use urban
ceeding paper, University Science, Malaysia, 2010); Ahsan, Re- utilities. Therefore urban planning policy and strategies
azul, Karuppannan, S and Kellett, J, ‘‘Climate migration and
Change of urban land uses in Bangladesh’’ (Paper presented in
4th International conference on Built Environment in Developing
25
Countries, School of Housing, Building and Planning, University Rahman, G. Components of urban planning: Town Planning and
Science Malaysia, Penang; Dec. 2010). the Political Culture of Planning in Bangladesh. (A H Development
23
Ibid. Publishing House, 2008), 113–161.
24 26
Ibid. Ibid.
168 AHSAN, KARUPPANNAN, AND KELLETT
are directly connected to the planning challenges and first five-year session (2009–2013) the plan is targeted to
actions to ensure quality of life. While climate change achieve six major pillars: (i) food security and health, (ii)
induced migration is being added it is a new planning comprehensive disaster management, (iii) infrastructure,
challenge which is not clearly understood in the current (iv) research and knowledge management, (v) mitigation
planning practice both in national, regional, and local and low carbon management trajectory, and (vi) capacity
levels. Climate change not only threatens environmental building.27 The plan was designed with guideline policies
quality but also threatens human lives, property, and at the national level while there were no clear directions
future prosperity; communities are becoming more vul- for the local and regional levels to develop and implement
nerable. Floods, landslides, cyclones, and other natural climate change action plans. Though the national plan
phenomena are having a long-term impact on physical addresses capacity building strategy to face the climate
infrastructures like water supply, drainage, sanitation, change challenges, there was no focus on who, when, and
waste management, and land use. The large-scale influx how to build climate resilience capacity. Therefore it is
of climate refugees is putting immense strain on housing necessary to include local development plans into re-
supply, increasing rates of squatting on both private and gional level sectoral plans and into national level devel-
government land and creating economic and social stress. opment plans to ensure coordination among various
Whilst many new jobs have been created as result of cli- planning hierarchies. Local government authorities are
mate migrants being prepared to work for low wages or also responsible for local development plan implementa-
simply in exchange for space to live, the capacity of the tion, the aim of such a plan being to develop a bridge
economy to expand in the short to medium term is finite. between the government and the public so that they can
Social stress is also apparent from the survey findings work together on climate change risks within the ambit of
with many households dependent on NGO support and urban planning.28 Active hierarchical coordination, local
charity and many individuals traumatized as result of plan preparation, community participation, and involve-
their experiences. Successfully incorporating climate ment of development organizations both at local and
change impacts into regional and local level plan and national levels are the key ingredients for a planning
development processes will largely depend on relevant system to address uncontrolled urbanization. Therefore a
institutions, planners, and agencies being well coordi-
nated, recognizing the range and scale of the challenges
facing them, and being sufficient resourced to prepare 27
Bangladesh Government, Ministry of Environment and
policy and undertake projects efficiently and effectively. Forests, Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan 2008,
Bangladesh government published Bangladesh Climate Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of the Peo-
ple’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka.
Change Strategy and Action Plan 2008 with a 10 year (2009– 28
Bangladesh Government, Ministry of Environment and
2018) vision to build the capacity of the country to face the Forests, Characterizing Country Settings: Development of a Base
climate change challenges throughout the nations. For Document for Bangladesh (2009), Climate Change Cell report.
CLIMATE MIGRATION AND URBAN PLANNING IN BANGLADESH 169
80
70
Number of migrants
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1988 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
decision-making framework is necessary to integrate cli- planning and development authorities in the develop-
mate migration and urbanization within the current pol- ment of effective adaptation strategies. At the same time
icy and planning system. local level planning authorities need to be aware of the
The major problem in the planning system is lack of relevant outcomes of impacts when a new action plan is
coordination in the decision-making framework. In order to be implemented. Figure 8 depicts a model decision-
to overcome this issue it is important to involve the key making framework, which incorporates new challenges in
FIG. 8. Decision-making framework that integrates climate change into the traditional planning process.
170 AHSAN, KARUPPANNAN, AND KELLETT
the planning policy and system. It includes hierarchical ing. Those cumulative impacts are increasing challenges
links that can assist in evaluating climate risks and en- for the existing planning system to address. Meanwhile
abling development of alternative policy options.29 the frequency of climate induced disasters and subse-
There are many avenues that can be pursued for inte- quent migration pressures increase and the entire urban
grating climate migration and planning policy. It is im- system becomes more vulnerable as a result. Addressing
portant to understand that climate migration is not a climate migration in strategic planning is a vital step that
direct impact but instead a cumulative set of indirect developing countries’ governments must take. Even
impacts leading to changes that affect the whole devel- though adaptation plans and strategies do exist they fail
opment and planning system. Its impacts are physical, to deliver due to lack of coordination within the system.
social, and economic as well as emotionally problematic Addressing climate migration through planning options
and extend beyond the migrants themselves in that the needs to be matched by a realistic recognition of priority
population, physical environment, and infrastructure of needs in local, national, and sectoral planning. In effect it
the receiving communities are also significantly affected. means understanding and working to create an urban
Therefore coordination takes on an important role in the disaster risk reduction strategy. A combination of top-
development of the planning response. Top-down rec- down and bottom-up planning is required to address
ognition of the policy challenge is required as are bottom- climate change and forced migration so that sustain-
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up links between local and national level planning when able development and efficient use of resources is made
climate change adaptation plans are designed and im- possible.
plemented. Climate migration and urbanization is more a
local issue while climate change is a national issue but the
AUTHOR DISCLOSURE STATEMENT
two levels of government and planning need to recognize
their relative contributions to the solutions.
The authors have no conflicts of interest or financial ties
to disclose.
CONCLUSION
29
Ahsan, Reazul, ‘‘Climate change; changing urban planning
policy and system’’ (University of South Australia, 2010) (paper
presented at postgraduate research colloquium, University of
South Australia, Adelaide, Nov. 2010).
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