WCR 2022

Envisaging
the Future of Cities
i
World Cities Report 2022
Envisaging
WORLD CITIES REPORT 2022
World Cities Report 2022
First published 2022 by United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat)

Copyright © United Nations Human Settlements Programme, 2022
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HS Number: HS/004/22E
ISBN Number(Series): 978-92-1-133395-4
ISBN Number: 978-92-1-132894-3
ii
Envisaging the Future of Cities
Secretary General's
Foreword
In 2016, the international community adopted the New Urban

Agenda to harness the power of sustainable urbanization to
achieve our global goals of peaceful, prosperous societies on
a healthy planet.
Despite progress since then, the COVID-19 pandemic and

other crises have posed huge challenges. Urban areas were
particularly hard hit by the pandemic – underscoring the
importance of stepping up efforts to build a more sustainable
and equitable urban future.
Local is the space where we connect the dots. Cities and

towns can spearhead innovations to bridge the inequalities
gaps, deliver climate action and ensure a green and inclusive
recovery from the pandemic – especially as the proportion
of people living in urban areas is projected to grow to 68 per
António Guterres cent by 2050.
Secretary-General of the United Nations
The World Cities Report 2022 stresses that building resilience
must be at the heart of the cities of the future. The success of
cities, towns and urban areas will largely depend on policies
that protect and sustain all, leaving no one behind. We need
green investment for sustainable patterns of consumption
and production; responsive and inclusive urban planning; the
prioritization of public health; and innovation and technology
for all.
These steps will help cities adapt and respond to shocks

and stresses and lead our world to a resilient, just, and
sustainable urban future.
iii
Executive Director’s
Introduction
In February 2020, as UN-Habitat announced that the 2022

World Urban Forum will be hosted by Poland in the city of
Katowice, we could not imagine that the world would go into
lockdown. The COVID-19 pandemic created a temporary
crisis of confidence in the future of cities as urban dwellers
across the world, especially in large cities, fled to the
perceived safety of the countryside or to smaller towns.
At the peak of the pandemic, what were once bustling cities

became desolate as residents disappeared from public spaces
during enforced lockdowns. Today, in 2022, many cities have
begun to resemble their old selves, cautiously returning to
the way they operated previously. There is a broad consensus
that urbanization remains a powerful twenty-first century
mega-trend. A sense of optimism is returning that the
pandemic is providing us with the opportunity to build back
differently. Can our children inherit an urban future that is
more inclusive, greener, safer and healthier?
If the world were to experience another pandemic or major

threat, would our cities and towns be sufficiently prepared
Maimunah Mohd Sharif based on what we have learned over the last two years? Would
Under-Secretary-General and Executive Director our cities have developed a robust system of resilience to
United Nations Human Settlements Programme respond to and withstand future shocks? I recall mayors and
(UN-Habitat) city managers asking: how do we build back better, greener
and inclusively?
The answer lies with what we have learned and adopted

as best practices responding to COVID-19 and the climate
crisis. We must start by acknowledging that the status quo
leading up to 2020 was in many ways an unsustainable
model of urban development. To meet this challenge, the
future of cities must respond to pressing urban challenges in
different parts of the world. An optimistic scenario of urban
futures will reduce inequality and poverty, foster productive
and inclusive urban economies, invest sustainably to
promote clean energy and protect ecosystems, and prioritize
iv
The vision of sustainable and equitable

urban futures will not be guaranteed unless
cities and subnational governments take
bold and decisive actions to address both
chronic and emerging urban challenges
public health. These ambitions, in turn, must be facilitated Agenda was adopted at the Habitat III summit in 2016 and
by responsive urban planning and multilevel governance the implementation framework must be amplified to achieve
systems in which finance, innovation and technology play the Sustainable Development Goals by making transformative
overarching roles. progress in addressing the multiple challenges confronting
cities both now and in the future.
While the COVID-19 pandemic has occupied a significant
share of global attention since 2020, it is far from the The Report reaffirms that the vision for the future of
only threat facing the future of cities. High inflation and cities must embody the “new social contract” in the form
unemployment, slow economic growth, looming recession, of universal basic income, universal health coverage and
mounting public debts, supply chain disruptions, armed universal housing and basic services. This proposal was
conflicts, and a global food and energy crisis amount first articulated in the 2021 UN-Habitat report Cities and
to a bitter cocktail of contemporary challenges. Unless Pandemics: Towards a More Just, Green and Healthy Future
concerted action is taken, millions of poor and vulnerable and remains more urgent than ever.
families across the world will continue to live in a future
that is unfolding without the necessary safeguards and one The vision of sustainable and equitable urban futures
that eclipses their dreams of a better urban future. Building will not be guaranteed unless cities and subnational
economic, social and environmental resilience, including governments take bold and decisive actions to address both
appropriate governance and institutional structures, must be chronic and emerging urban challenges. Without urgent and
at the heart of the future of cities. Economic resilience with transformative policy action at all levels, the current situation
new fiscal sustainability frameworks, societal resilience with will only get worse. The urgency of new approaches for
universal social protection schemes, climate resilience with transformative change in cities cannot be overemphasized.
greener investments, and stronger multilevel collaboration Within this Decade of Action window, it is urgent for cities
to confront future shocks must be the main building blocks and subnational governments to adopt innovative approaches
of a resilient future that can withstand and respond to the that will foster the optimistic scenario of urban futures.
various threats and shocks that urban areas face.
The New Urban Agenda provides a holistic framework
The World Cities Report 2022 envisages an optimistic for urban development that encourages the integration of
scenario of urban futures that relies on collaborative and all facets of sustainable development to promote equality,
effective interventions to tackle multidimensional poverty welfare and shared prosperity. Our cities and towns must
and inequalities; promote vibrant, resilient, diversified urban mainstream these commitments in their local development
economies and productive urban futures; build healthy and plans with a deliberate focus on tackling inequality, poverty
thriving cities; strengthen the drive towards green urban and climate change, among other challenges. Sustainable
futures; promote well-planned and managed urbanization urban futures remain a cornerstone of the fight to ensure
processes; and ensure inclusive digital economies for the that cities are better prepared for the next crisis.
future. The optimistic scenario envisions concerted policy
action facilitated by the implementation of the New Urban
Agenda. It has now been over five years since the New Urban
v
Acknowledgements
Authors: UN-Habitat Core Team

Neil Khor (Division Director); Ben Arimah (Chief of Unit and Task Manager); Raymond Otieno Otieno; Matthijs van Oostrum; Mary
Mutinda; Judith Oginga Martins
Authors: External
Godwin Arku; Vanesa Castán Broto; Merlin Chatwin; Lewis Dijkstra; Simon Joss: Ayyoob Sharifi; Alice Sverdlik; David Simon; Pietro
Florio; Sergio Freire; Thomas Kemper; Michele Melchiorri; Marcello Schiavina; Alfredo Alessandrini; Fabrizio Natale; Daniela Ghio;
Olivier Draily; Linda Westman; Ping Huang; Enora Robin; Hita Unnikrishnan
Statistical Annex
Robert Ndugwa; Donatien Beguy; Dennis Mwaniki; Julius Majale; Amos Thairu; Kevin Nyamai; Edwin Kochulem; Daniel Githira;
Linda Mwongeli; Martin Runguma; Carol S. Akoth.
Contributors: UN-Habitat Staff

Raf Tuts; Robert Ndugwa; Donatien Beguy; Dennis Mwaniki; Remy Sietchiping; Shipra Narang Suri; Paula Pennanen-Rebeiro-
Hargrave; Paulius Kulikauskas; Katharina Rochell; Xing Quan Zhang; Chris Williams; Filiep Decorte; Anne Amin; Rafael Forero;
Maria Tellez Soler; Angela Mwai; Cecilia Andersson; Lucia Kiwala; Stefanie Holzwarth; Janene Tuniz; Rosa Muraguri-Mwololo;
Graham Alabaster; Isabel Wetzel; John Omwamba; Lennart Fleck
Contributors: External
Susan Parnell; James Duminy; Elmond Bandauko; Karen Vankerkoerle; Maximilian Kriz; Jasmin Cook; Roberto Rocco; Abdellah
Abarkan; Oliver Lah; Nathalie Roebbel
Administrative Support Team

Caroline Gaceru; Brenda Gacheru; Nelly Kang’ethe; Shova Khatry
IT Support for Expert Group Meetings

Leon Osong; Moshy Savegod
International Advisory Board

Christine Platt; John Ebohon; Taibat Lawanson; Yu Zhu; Matt Benson; Nikolai Bobylev; Ryan Centner; Bharat Dahiya; Carol Archer
Financial Support
Government of Sweden
Ministry of Development Funds and Regional Policy, Government of Poland
Abu Dhabi Department of Municipalities and Transport, United Arab Emirates
Editorial Consultant
Gregory Scruggs
Communications and Media Team

Katerina Bezgachina; Victor Mgendi; Ivy Mutisya
Design and Layout: Peter Cheseret; Michael Lusaba

Creative Direction: Andrea Posada
Illustrations: Ana María Ospina
Web Development: Andrew Ouko, Joshua Gichuhi
vi
Contents
Secretary General's Foreword..............................................................................................................................................................................................v
Executive Director’s Introduction.......................................................................................................................................................................................vi
Acknowledgements...........................................................................................................................................................................................................viii
Contents........................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ix
List of Boxes, Figures, Maps and Tables.............................................................................................................................................................................. xi
Acronyms and Abbreviations..............................................................................................................................................................................................xv
Key Findings and Messages.............................................................................................................................................................................................. xvii
Chapter 1: The Diversity of Cities and Visions for Urban Futures...........................................................................................................................1
1.1 What Futures for Cities?.....................................................................................................................................................................................3
1.2 Pandemic Lessons for the Future of Cities...........................................................................................................................................................6
1.3 The Diversity of Urban Futures...........................................................................................................................................................................9
1.4 Possible Scenarios for Urban Futures.................................................................................................................................................................17
1.5 Visions of Urban Futures...................................................................................................................................................................................20
1.6 Pathways to Sustainable Urban Futures..............................................................................................................................................................24
1.7 Concluding Remarks.........................................................................................................................................................................................29
Chapter 2: Scenarios of Urban Futures: Degree of Urbanization...........................................................................................................................31
2.1. The Degree of Urbanization and Why it is Important? .......................................................................................................................................33
2.2. City Population Continues Growing as Towns and Rural Areas Experience Slowdown..........................................................................................39
2.3. What is Driving Population Growth in Cities? ....................................................................................................................................................43
2.4. Growth in Cities is Slowing Down, but Less for Large Cities..............................................................................................................................49
2.5. Sustainable Futures: How Dense Should Our Cities Be? ....................................................................................................................................61
2.6. Concluding Remarks and Lessons for Policy.......................................................................................................................................................69
Chapter 3: Poverty and Inequality: Enduring Features of an Urban Future?..........................................................................................................71
3.1. Urban Poverty and Inequality: A Multidimensional Perspective...........................................................................................................................74
3.2. Trends in Poverty and Inequality: Implications for Urban Futures ......................................................................................................................76
3.3. A Global Snapshot of Inequality Trends .............................................................................................................................................................78
3.4. Urban Poverty in Developing Regions: Trends and Challenges for the Future of Cities.........................................................................................79
3.5. Urban Poverty in Developed Regions: Implications for Urban Futures ................................................................................................................85
3.6. Urban Inequalities in Developing Regions: Matters Arising for Urban Futures ....................................................................................................85
3.7. Urban Inequalities in Developed Regions and the Future of Cities .....................................................................................................................88
3.8. Responding to Poverty and Inequality in Cities ..................................................................................................................................................89
3.9. Transformative Policies for Inclusive and Equitable Urban Futures......................................................................................................................95
3.10. Success Factors for Social Protection Policies in Urban Areas.............................................................................................................................97
3.11. Concluding Remarks and Lessons for Policy ......................................................................................................................................................99
Chapter 4: Resilient Urban Economies: A Catalyst for Productive Futures..........................................................................................................103
4.1. Conceptualizing Urban Economic Resilience ...................................................................................................................................................106
4.2. Urban Economies of Cities in Developing Countries .......................................................................................................................................109
4.3. Urban Economies of Cities in Developed Countries ........................................................................................................................................119
4.4. Towards Resilient Urban Economies and Productive Urban Futures .................................................................................................................122
4.5. Concluding Remarks and Lessons for Policy ....................................................................................................................................................137
Chapter 5: Securing a Greener Urban Future......................................................................................................................................................139
5.1. Urban Transitions to Net Zero GHG Emissions.................................................................................................................................................141
5.2. The Future of Urban Transportation................................................................................................................................................................149
5.3. Embracing Resilience for Greener Urban Futures.............................................................................................................................................155
5.4. Nature-based Solutions and Environmental Futures.........................................................................................................................................165
5.5. Inclusive Planning Processes ...........................................................................................................................................................................169
5.6. Building Global Urban Partnerships.................................................................................................................................................................174
5.7. Concluding Remarks and Lessons for Policy.....................................................................................................................................................175
Chapter 6: Urban Planning for the Future of Cities.............................................................................................................................................179
6.1. Urban Planning for Sustainable and Inclusive Recovery....................................................................................................................................183
6.2. Retrofitting Urban Spaces for Safe Social Distancing........................................................................................................................................189
6.3. Promoting Compact Urban Development ........................................................................................................................................................195
6.4. Planning for the Future of Public Transport Systems........................................................................................................................................201
6.5. The Importance of Spatial Scales and Analysis for the Future of Urban Planning...............................................................................................206
Chapter 7: Public Health and Sustainable Urban Futures ...................................................................................................................................211
7.1. Towards a Multilayered, Intersectional Understanding of Urban Health............................................................................................................214
7.2 Advancing Urban Health Equity ......................................................................................................................................................................228
vii
7.3 Envisaging Health for Sustainable Urban Futures.............................................................................................................................................233

7.4 Concluding Remarks and Lessons for Policy ....................................................................................................................................................240
Chapter 8: Rethinking Urban Governance for the Future of Cities......................................................................................................................243
8.1. Urban Governance Lessons from a Global Pandemic .......................................................................................................................................245
8.2. Urban Governance that Drives and Sustains Urban Futures..............................................................................................................................247
8.3. Emerging Urban Governance Responses to Five Pervasive Challenges...............................................................................................................263
8.4. Divergent Urban Governance Futures .............................................................................................................................................................268
8.5. Concluding Remarks and Lessons for Policy ....................................................................................................................................................271
Chapter 9: Innovation and Technology: Towards Knowledge-Based Urban Futures.............................................................................................273
9.1. Future Cities as Places of Innovation...............................................................................................................................................................275
9.2. Frontier Technologies for Variegated Urban Futures ........................................................................................................................................280
9.3. Automation, Digitalization and the Future of Work..........................................................................................................................................285
9.4. Cities’ Responses to Digital and Environmental Divides ...................................................................................................................................288
9.5. Technological Tools for Inclusive Governance...................................................................................................................................................292
9.6. Towards Responsible Innovation .....................................................................................................................................................................296
Chapter 10: Building Resilience for Sustainable Urban Futures..........................................................................................................................301
10.1. Defining, Understanding and Measuring Resilience..........................................................................................................................................304
10.2. Economic Resilience........................................................................................................................................................................................307
10.3. Social Resilience.............................................................................................................................................................................................312
10.4. Environmental Resilience................................................................................................................................................................................314
10.5. Institutional Resilience....................................................................................................................................................................................319
10.6 Final Reflections: Building Resilience for Optimistic Urban Futures .................................................................................................................325
Statistical Annex............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 329
References...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 359
viii
List of Boxes, Figures, Maps and Tables

List of Boxes
Box 1.1: Five lessons from the COVD-19 pandemic.................................................................................................................................................. 8
Box 1.3: The Vision of “Cities for All”.................................................................................................................................................................... 21
Box 2.1: Levels and classes in the Degree of Urbanization methodology.................................................................................................................. 35
Box 2.2: Advantages of the Degree of Urbanization methodology: A summary......................................................................................................... 36
Box 2.3: Projections and data sources for the Degree of Urbanization methodology................................................................................................. 38
Box 2.4: Different drivers of population change...................................................................................................................................................... 45
Box 2.5: City size classification.............................................................................................................................................................................. 49
Box 2.6: Shrinking cities: Planning for future growth while anticipating decline...................................................................................................... 59
Box 2.7: Making room for future urban expansion: Minimal actions....................................................................................................................... 66
Box 3.1: The “troubled spots” of residential segregation in United States cities ..................................................................................................... 88
Box 3.2. Building the resilience of “urban weak spots” to future shocks................................................................................................................. 93
Box 3.3: Moving Urban Poor Communities in the Philippines Towards Resilience (MOVE UP) Model...................................................................... 94
Box 3.4: China’s integrated urban social programme Dibao .................................................................................................................................... 97
Box 4.1: Informal economy: Surviving, managing, thriving in conflict-affected situations....................................................................................... 114
Box 4.2: Urban and territorial planning, infrastructure investment and structural transformation ......................................................................... 116
Box 4.3: European Regional Development Fund empowering urban and territorial authorities............................................................................... 121
Box 4.4: Windsor’s L.I.F.T economic diversification strategy ................................................................................................................................ 124
Box 4.5: Innovative municipal finance mobilization using land value capture in Hargeisa, Somaliland .................................................................... 132
Box 4.6: Freetown is reforming its property tax system........................................................................................................................................ 133
Box 5.1: Let’s make a “Green” Deal: Infrastructure, jobs and the green economy.................................................................................................. 144
Box 5.2: Green recovery: Commitments and actions misaligned?.......................................................................................................................... 148
Box 5.3 Car-free and carefree: The movement to open streets for people............................................................................................................. 151
Box 5.4: Urbanization and climate impacts........................................................................................................................................................... 156
Box 5.5: Job comparison between green and unsustainable investment types........................................................................................................ 168
Box 5.6: Post-COVID-19 resilience in informal settlements................................................................................................................................... 171
Box 5.7. Participatory approaches to future visioning and scenario planning.......................................................................................................... 173
Box 5.8: Transnational municipal networks in global environmental governance.................................................................................................... 175
Box 6.1: Global emissions almost back to pre-pandemic levels after unprecedented drop in 2020......................................................................... 186
Box 6.2: UN-Habitat expands COVID-19 prevention in Kenya’s Mathare and Kibera informal settlements through youth-led groups...................... 187
Box 6.3: Regulating the short-term rental market.................................................................................................................................................. 188
Box 6.4: Scaling up safe street designs in Addis Ababa.......................................................................................................................................... 193
Box 6.5: San Francisco makes four Slow Streets permanent.................................................................................................................................. 198
Box 6.6: Harambee urban farms fill a crucial void for Black, Latinx families during the pandemic........................................................................... 209
Box 7.1: HIV/AIDS epidemic statistics as of 2020................................................................................................................................................. 215
Box 7.2: Armed conflicts worsen health in cities.................................................................................................................................................. 224
Box 7.3: Using technology to bridge access to dementia care in Gangdong-du City, Republic of Korea................................................................... 228
Box 7.4: Inequitable impact of air pollution in Greater Accra, Ghana ................................................................................................................... 232
Box 7.5: Lessons from the health in all policies approach in Richmond, US to foster health equity and climate resilience, reduce violence and
discrimination, and promote social justice.............................................................................................................................................. 234
Box 7.6: Pro-poor strategies to expand universal health coverage.......................................................................................................................... 238
Box 8.1: Chatbot initiative in Mutare, Zimbabwe................................................................................................................................................. 248
Box 8.3: Living Labs: Capacity building through experimentation.......................................................................................................................... 256
Box 8.4: How community participation built new roads for Old Accra................................................................................................................... 259
Box 9.1: Examples of frontier technologies in urban contexts .............................................................................................................................. 281
Box 9.2: Digital microwork in an informal settlement in Windhoek ...................................................................................................................... 286
Box 9.3: Bridging the digital divide in Toronto...................................................................................................................................................... 291
Box 9.4: Marginalized youth as citizen scientists in Eskilstuna, Sweden................................................................................................................ 294
Box 9.5: Collaborative assessment of future drone technology in the UK.............................................................................................................. 297
Box 9.6: Mitigation measures for environmental risks.......................................................................................................................................... 298
Box 10.1: The City Resilience Index (CRI).............................................................................................................................................................. 305
Box 10.2: ICLEI’s Urban Natural Assets for Africa Programme (UNA)..................................................................................................................... 315
Box 10.3: Comprehensive city resilience strategies: Buenos Aires, Cape Town and Gothenburg............................................................................... 325
Box 10.4: Five climate action pathways to urban transformation............................................................................................................................. 327
ix
List of Figures
Figure 1.1: Urban and rural population of the world (1950-2030)............................................................................................................................. 5
Figure 1.2: Cities where the population declined between 2000 and 2018............................................................................................................. 13
Figure 1.3: Possible Scenarios for Urban Futures.................................................................................................................................................... 18
Figure 1.4: Pathways to sustainable urban futures.................................................................................................................................................. 24
Figure 2.1: Population by Degree of Urbanization and in nationally defined urban areas by SDG regions and income group, 2015............................ 34
Figure 2.2: City population growth through expansion, annexation and new cities in Hanoi, Viet Nam and Debrecen, Hungary............................... 37
Figure 2.3: Evolution of population by degree of urbanization 1950–2070 in absolute and relative terms................................................................ 40
Figure 2.4: Population share by degree of urbanization and SDG region (1950–2070) ordered by city population share in 1950.............................. 41
Figure 2.5: Population share by degree of urbanization and income level (1950–2070)........................................................................................... 42
Figure 2.6: Land covered by cities, towns and semi-dense areas, 1975–2070.......................................................................................................... 43
Figure 2.7: Land covered by cities, towns and semi-dense areas and income group, 1975–2070.............................................................................. 44
Figure 2.8: Components of city population growth, 1960–2070............................................................................................................................. 46
Figure 2.9: The role of reclassification in city population growth during the previous decade, 2030–2070............................................................... 47
Figure 2.10: City population growth between 2020 and 2030 by city size, income group and source of growth......................................................... 48
Figure 2.11: Population share by age group in cities, towns and semi-dense areas, and rural areas in 1950, 2020 and 2050....................................... 49
Figure 2.12: Growth in the number of cities 1975–2070 by income group............................................................................................................... 50
Figure 2.13 Growth in the number of cities 1975–2070 by region of the world....................................................................................................... 50
Figure 2.14: Number of cities with at least 1 or 5 million inhabitants per region, 2020–2070................................................................................... 51
Figure 2.15: City population by city size and income group, 1975–2070.................................................................................................................. 55
Figure 2.16: Growth of the number of cities by population size and income group, 1975-2070................................................................................. 56
Figure 2.17: Growth of city land by income group and region, 1975–2070............................................................................................................... 57
Figure 2.18: City land by city size and income group, 1975–2070 (thousand square kilometres)............................................................................... 60
Figure 2.19: Maputo in 2020 and in 2050 under three different scenarios............................................................................................................... 62
Figure 2.20: City expansion under three development scenarios in Medellin, Lusaka, Taejon and Hamburg............................................................... 63
Figure 2.21: City population density by income group and region, 1975–2015......................................................................................................... 63
Figure 2.22: Population density in cities in 1990 and 2020 and in three different scenarios in 2050 by income group and SDG region
(density in inhabitants per sq. km)....................................................................................................................................................... 65
Figure 2.23: City land in 1990, 2020 and in three scenarios in 2050 by income group and SDG region (city land in 2020=100).............................. 67
Figure 3.1: Multidimensional nature of urban poverty............................................................................................................................................ 74
Figure 3.2: Complex web of multidimensional urban inequalities: drivers and outcomes......................................................................................... 75
Figure 3.3: Extreme poverty rates by region in a no COVID-19 scenario................................................................................................................. 76
Figure 3.4: Urban population of multidimensionally poor (millions)........................................................................................................................ 77
Figure 3.5: Percentage of urban population living in extreme poverty in selected Sub-Saharan African countries (2016–2030)................................ 79
Figure 3.6: Proportion of urban population living in extreme poverty in selected Asian countries (2016–2030)....................................................... 80
Figure 3.7: Percentage of urban population living in extreme poverty in selected Latin American and Caribbean countries (2016–2030)................. 81
Figure 3.8. COVID-19 exacerbates pre-existing urban vulnerabilities ..................................................................................................................... 84
Figure 3.9: The differential consequences of the urban services divide on the poor................................................................................................ 87
Figure 3.10: Urban services divide leads to higher burden for the underserved ....................................................................................................... 87
Figure 3.11: People at risk of poverty or social exclusion in European cities (2017)................................................................................................... 89
Figure 3.12: Multidimensional approach to equitable urban futures ........................................................................................................................ 90
Figure 3.13: Pillars of urban social protection........................................................................................................................................................... 96
Figure 3.14. The A, B, C and D of urban social protection design ............................................................................................................................ 98
Figure 4.1: Conceptualization of urban economic resilience................................................................................................................................. 107
Figure 4.2: Key dimensions of resilience building for urban economies ................................................................................................................ 108
Figure 4.3: Urbanization and growth in selected Eastern Asian countries ............................................................................................................. 109
Figure 4.4: Urbanization without economic transformation in Africa.................................................................................................................... 110
Figure 4.5: Share of firms in internationally tradable and non-tradable sectors in selected developing country cities ............................................. 111
Figure 4.6: Share of informal employment in total employment by area of residence ............................................................................................ 112
Figure 4.7: Informal employment in selected developing country cities................................................................................................................ 113
Figure 4.8: The CDC dilemma facing African urban economies ........................................................................................................................... 115
Figure 4.9: Dynamics of asymmetrical development in secondary cities in developing countries ........................................................................... 117
Figure 4.10: Own source revenue per capita of local governments by country income group (US$)......................................................................... 118
Figure 4.11: Transformative pathways towards resilient urban economies and productive urban futures.................................................................. 123
Figure 4.12: Main objectives for cities and regions to transition to a circular economy............................................................................................ 125
Figure 4.13: The 3Ps framework for adopting the circular economy in cities........................................................................................................... 126
Figure 4.14: Policy interventions to build the resilience of the informal sector ....................................................................................................... 128
Figure 4.15: Pillars of the Sustainable Urban Futures Fund..................................................................................................................................... 131
Figure 4.16: 4Rs of urban finance for economic resilience ..................................................................................................................................... 132
Figure 4.17: Creating an enabling environment for scaling-up investment............................................................................................................... 133
Figure 4.18: Employment-to-population ratio by sex, 2019–2022........................................................................................................................... 135
Figure 4.19: The Digitalisation Academy model in the city of Vaasa, Finland........................................................................................................... 136
Figure 5.1: National-level pillars for supporting local climate action...................................................................................................................... 144
x
Figure 5.2: Models of net zero development in urban areas.................................................................................................................................. 145

Figure 5.3: Public transport: coverage and share of population with convenient access, 2020................................................................................ 149
Figure 5.4: Characteristics of inclusive adaptation planning ................................................................................................................................. 159
Figure 5.5: Access to basic water facilities............................................................................................................................................................ 161
Figure 5.6: Access to basic sanitation facilities..................................................................................................................................................... 161
Figure 5.7: Benefits and limitations of nature-based solutions .............................................................................................................................. 167
Figure 6.1: Reductions in NO2 concentrations over India following COVID-19 lockdowns.................................................................................... 184
Figure 6.2: Short-term comparison of PM2.5 levels in major cities before, during and after lockdown restrictions imposed by
governments at the beginning of the pandemic................................................................................................................................... 185
Figure 6.3: Temporary reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions during the first half of 2020 and rapid recovery in the second half................ 185
Figure 6.4: Guidelines for a safe return to the office during COVID-19................................................................................................................. 191
Figure 6.5: Spatial strategies for restaurants in response to COVID-19................................................................................................................. 194
Figure 6.6: The 15-Minute Paris.200
Figure 6.7: Representation of the 20-minute neighbourhood in the Melbourne Plan............................................................................................. 201
Figure 6.8: Impacts of COVID-19 on public transit ridership between 2020 and 2021 in a 25-city research.......................................................... 202
Figure 6.9: The link between traffic fatality rates and public transport ridership.................................................................................................... 202
Figure 6.10: Sustainable Urban Mobility Planning.................................................................................................................................................. 205
Figure 6.11: Examples of instruments under an Avoid/Shift/Improve framework..................................................................................................... 206
Figure 6.12: The City-Region Food Systems (CRFS) approach................................................................................................................................. 208
Figure 7.1: Leading global causes of death (2000 and 2019)................................................................................................................................. 218
Figure 7.2: Leading behavioural causes of mortality in 1990 and 2019 in Kisumu, Kenya (percentage of total deaths by risk factor)....................... 219
Figure 7.3: Leading behavioural causes of mortality in 1990 and 2019 in Jakarta, Indonesia (percentage of total deaths by risk factor) .................. 220
Figure 7.4: Causes of death in 2019 for London’s Borough of Kensington and Chelsea (wealthy neighbourhood) and Borough of
Tower Hamlets (poorer neighbourhood) ............................................................................................................................................. 221
Figure 7.5: Urban inequalities in measles vaccination rates as shown through differences between non-slum urban areas
and slums (in absolute per cent) for children aged 12–23 months....................................................................................................... 222
Figure 7.6: Skilled birth attendance in the Philippines: percentage of births with skilled health personnel in all urban slum areas,
all non-slum urban areas, Manila slum areas and Manila non-slum areas (2003–2017)......................................................................... 223
Figure 7.7: Child stunting in Bangladesh comparing all urban slum areas, all non-slum urban areas, Dhaka slum areas and Dhaka
non-slum areas (2004–2018) based on percentage of children aged 0–59 months who are below minus two standard deviations
from median height-for-age ............................................................................................................................................................... 223
Figure 7.8: Framework on intersecting, multi-level urban health inequities: key factors from global to city and individual scales............................ 225
Figure 7.9: Causes of injury deaths among adults by sex (aged 15 and older) in two of Nairobi’s informal settlements
(January 2003–December 2012, N=2,464) ...................................................................................................................................... 227
Figure 7.10: Health, climate and livelihood/asset benefits of upgrading informal settlements.................................................................................. 231
Figure 7.11: Potential benefits of urban climate actions for health, adaptation and mitigation.................................................................................. 236
Figure 7.12: Towards Health Urbanism: Inclusive Equitable Sustainable (THRIVES) framework............................................................................... 237
Figure 8.1: Alliance for Affordable Internet REACT Framework............................................................................................................................ 249
Figure 8.2: Different kinds of metropolitan governance arrangements.................................................................................................................. 251
Figure 8.3: Women in local councils..................................................................................................................................................................... 252
Figure 8.4: Share of revenue for subnational governments................................................................................................................................... 261
Figure 8.5: Governance challenges and innovations during the COVID-19 pandemic............................................................................................. 265
Figure 8.6. Share of people who trust their national government ......................................................................................................................... 270
Figure 9.1: Most important practices to support innovation in cities ................................................................................................................... 276
Figure 9.2: Diagram showing the flows of energy in a ‘positive energy district’...................................................................................................... 278
Figure 9.3: Five technological innovations that will shape the future of waste management................................................................................... 284
Figure 9.4: Map of New York showing households without internet access: with concentration in the less affluent parts of the Bronx,
Queens and Brooklyn......................................................................................................................................................................... 290
Figure 9.5: City dashboard Bandung, Indonesia.................................................................................................................................................... 293
Figure 9.6: Screenshots from the QlueMyCity app, which utilizes citizen participation to identify problems across the city................................... 294
Figure 9.7: Living Labs that are part of the European Network of living labs.......................................................................................................... 295
Figure 10.1: The Rockefeller-Arup City Resilience Index......................................................................................................................................... 306
xi
List of Maps
Map 2.1: City land area change, 2020–2050........................................................................................................................................................... 58
Map 2.2: Population density in cities, 2015............................................................................................................................................................. 64
Map 2.3: Total area change per city in a low-density scenario, 2020–2050............................................................................................................... 68
Map 2.4: Total area change per city in a high-density scenario, 2020–2050.............................................................................................................. 68
Map 5.1: Percentage of urban population with access to basic sanitation facilities by country ................................................................................ 157
Map 5.2: Percentage of urban population with sewerage connections by country................................................................................................... 157
Map 5.3: Percentage of urban population with access to uncontaminated water by country.................................................................................... 158
Map 5.4: Percentage of urban population with access to piped water by country ................................................................................................... 158
List of Tables
Table 1.1: Top 15 crowdsourced answers to the question “What do you think the world will be like in 2050?”............................................................ 4
Table 1.2: Urban population and level of urbanization (2015–2050)........................................................................................................................... 9
Table 1.3: Urban rate of change 2015–2050............................................................................................................................................................ 10
Table 2.1: Urban primacy by country size and income group or SDG region, 2020.................................................................................................... 52
Table 2.2: Population density in three development scenarios................................................................................................................................... 61
Table 3.1: Roles of specific actors in supporting informal sector workers .................................................................................................................. 92
Table 4.1: COVID-19 induced municipal revenue losses in selected European Union countries .............................................................................. 121
Table 5.1: Reducing emissions in the built environment, examples of actions ........................................................................................................ 146
Table 5.2: Approaches to sustainable urban mobility.............................................................................................................................................. 150
Table 5.3: Informal transport examples.................................................................................................................................................................. 155
Table 5.4: Climate planning in Indian cities ........................................................................................................................................................... 160
Table 5.5: Maintaining build environment capabilities for climate change mitigation and adaptation........................................................................ 163
Table 5.6: Nature as a response to societal challenges ........................................................................................................................................... 166
Table 5.7: Institutions and methods that facilitate participation in urban planning and management........................................................................ 172
Table 7.1: Potential reductions in premature mortality for European cities if air quality guidelines are met ............................................................ 216
Table 9.1: Examples of the digital divide and approaches to digital inclusion........................................................................................................... 290
Table 9.2: Four risks of digitalization, and examples of mitigation measures............................................................................................................ 297
xii
Acronyms and Abbreviations

€ Euro
£ Sterling pound
ABC Ahorro, Bono y Crédito (Savings, Bond and Credit)
AI artificial intelligence
AMVA Metropolitan Area of Valle de Aburrá
ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations
ASI avoid-shift-improve
AU$ Australian dollar
B3W Build Back Better World
BREEAM Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method
BRICS Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa
BTI Bertelsmann transformation index
CASBEE comprehensive assessment system for built environment efficiency
CAV connected and autonomous vehicles
CDC Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
CFRS city-region food systems
CHW community health worker
COPD chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
COVID-19 coronavirus disease 2019
CRI city resilience index
DALY disability adjusted life year
EU European Union
EV electric vehicle
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization
FDI foreign direct investment
G20 Group of 20
GBI green-blue infrastructure
GCP gross city product
GDP gross domestic product
GHG greenhouse gas
GIZ Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit
GTA Greater Toronto Area
HHI Herfindahl-Hirschman index
HIA health impact assessment
HiAP health in all policies
ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability
ICT information and communications technology
IEA International Energy Agency
IHD ischaemic heart disease
ILO International Labour Organization
IoT internet of things
IPBES Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
ITDP Institute for Transportation and Development Policy
JRC Joint Research Centre
LEED-ND Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design - Neighborhood Development
xiii
LGBTQI lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer and intersex

MENA Middle East and North Africa
MERS Middle East respiratory syndrome
NBSs nature-based solutions
NCD non-communicable disease
NGO non-governmental organization
NIMBY not-in-my-backyard
NUA New Urban Agenda
NUP national urban policy
NZED net zero-energy districts
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
PPP public-private partnership
PrEP pre-exposure prophylaxis
PSUP Participatory Slum Upgrading Programme
R&D research and development
SARS severe acute respiratory syndrome
SDGs Sustainable Development Goals
SDI Shack/Slum Dwellers International
SMEs small and medium-sized enterprises
SPA special planning area
sq. km square kilometre
SSA Sub-Saharan Africa
SUFF Sustainable Urban Futures Fund
SUMP sustainable urban mobility plan
TfL Transport for London
TMNs transnational municipal networks
UBI universal basic income
UCLG United Cities and Local Governments
UHC universal health coverage
UITP International Association of Public Transport
UK United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
UNCDF United Nations Capital Development Fund
UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
UNEP United Nationals Environmental Programme
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change
US United States of America
US$ United States dollar
VLR voluntary local review
WASH water, sanitation and hygiene
WEF World Economic Forum
WHO World Health Organization
WIEGO Women in Informal Employment: Globalizing and Organizing
xiv
Key Findings and Messages
Chapter 1 opportunities for all; adopt environmental policies and actions

that mitigate and adapt to climate change, promote clean
The Diversity and Vision for the Future of energy and protect ecosystems; integrate public health into
Cities urban development; – facilitated by responsive urban planning
and governance systems in which with finance, innovation and
While the COVID-19 pandemic dominated the two years technology play overarching roles.
between editions of the World Cities Report and upended
many aspects of urban life, this Report comes at a time when Key Findings
world events create ever more dynamic environments for
urban actors. Although most of the world has lifted the public Cities are here to stay, and the future of humanity is
health restrictions and border closures that made COVID-19 undoubtedly urban: The experience in the early days of
such a dominant aspect of urban life, the virus continues the COVID-19 pandemic, when some residents fled large
to flare up periodically and some countries still have strict cities was a temporary response that will not fundamentally
measures in place. Recently, the world has witnessed a change the course of global urbanization. We are witnessing
sudden global spike in inflation and cost of living, alongside a world that will continue to urbanize over the next three
supply chain disruptions, which is severely affecting the decades—from 56 per cent in 2021 to 68 per cent in
recovery of urban economies. New and persistent armed 2050. This translates into an increase of 2.2 billion urban
conflicts have altered the geopolitical order and contributed residents, living mostly in Africa and Asia. All regions of the
to global economic uncertainty. world are expected to become more urbanized, although
highly urbanized and more developed regions are expected
The disruptive nature of the COVID-19 pandemic is a stark to stabilize or experience a decline in urban growth.
reminder that urban areas need to be prepared for dynamic Unequivocally, this tells us that cities are here to stay, and
and unpredictable futures. Cities across the world were that the future of humanity is undoubtedly urban, but not
totally unprepared for the magnitude of the economic and exclusively in large metropolitan areas.
social impacts of the pandemic. The pandemic revealed and
amplified long-standing weaknesses in the social structure The future of cities is not uniform across regions and can
of cities, resulting in disproportionate impacts on vulnerable lead to a range of scenarios: While responding to climate
and marginalized groups. Key lessons emerging from the change vulnerability and rising levels of inequality are global
COVID-19 pandemic are that urban areas must invest in concerns, other issues are bifurcated by region. In developed
preparedness, which requires developing the economic, countries, the key priorities for the future of cities also include
social, environmental and institutional resilience to respond managing cultural diversity, upgrading and modernizing ageing
to a wide range of shocks, including having contingency infrastructure, addressing shrinking and declining cities, and
plans for the most vulnerable groups. meeting the needs of an increasingly ageing population. In
developing countries, urban priorities for the future are rising
The foregoing raises key questions about the future of cities. levels of poverty, providing adequate infrastructure, affordable
What kind of cities do we envisage and reimagine in the and adequate housing and addressing challenge of slums, high
aftermath of the pandemic? What kind of cities are needed levels of youth unemployment, and investing in secondary
to support humanity in a predominantly urban world? How cities. How these challenges are addressed will lead to a range
do cities prepare for an uncertain world? Building economic, of future scenarios.
social and environmental resilience, including appropriate
governance and institutional structures, must be at the heart The worst-case scenario of urban futures is that of high
of the future of cities. To meet this challenge, sustainable urban damage: In a high damage scenario, extreme poverty could
futures must prioritize reduction in poverty and inequality; increase by 32 per cent or 213 million by 2030. Under this
foster productive and inclusive urban economies that provide scenario, the impacts of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic
xv
as well as global economic uncertainties, environmental Changing course to a sustainable path can lead to an
challenges, and wars and conflicts in different parts of the optimistic scenario: With concerted policy action through
world could have long-term impacts on the future of cities. the effective implementation of the New Urban Agenda as a
For instance, cities in Africa could lose up to two-thirds of framework for achieving the SDGs, it is possible for cities to
their financial resources and the weak urban service delivery avoid either of the high damage or pessimistic scenarios and
and governance systems in some of these cities could instead emerge into a more optimistic future. This scenario
collapse. If global action against multiple urban challenges involves collaborative, well-coordinated and effective
fails and this bleak scenario becomes a reality, the credibility multilateral interventions to leverage the opportunities and
of the multilateral system would be compromised, thereby address the challenges of urbanization. With appropriately
undermining coordination efforts to address urgent and implemented measures, the response to the current urban
pressing global issues. crisis can lead to a collective reprioritization of cities across
the world towards shared prosperity and inclusion.
Business as usual will result in a pessimistic scenario:
Returning to the pre-pandemic state of affairs, also known as the Key Messages
Bad Old Deal, is characterized by the systemic discrimination
and exclusion of the poor in urban agendas including the Urbanization is intertwined with several existential
exclusion of informal sector workers, overreliance on global challenges: Cities do not exist in isolation from global
fossil fuels, poorly planned and managed urbanization, low challenges. The emergence of urbanization as a global mega-
prioritization of public health in urban development, and trend is intertwined with the existential challenges that the
entrenched digital inequalities, which collectively undermine world has faced in the last 50 years, including climate change,
the vision of achieving inclusive, resilient, and sustainable rising inequality and the rise in zoonotic viruses with the latest
cities where no one is left behind. Globally, 1.6 billion people being the novel coronavirus pandemic, which triggered the
or 20 per cent of the world’s population live in inadequate worst public health crisis in a century and the worst economic
housing, of which one billion reside in slums and informal recession since the Great Depression. These challenges will
settlements. Under these conditions, the goal of eradicating in different ways, leave their imprints on the future of cities.
poverty in all its forms by 2030 and leave no one behind will
not be achieved. Without concerted efforts, the pessimistic Building resilience must be at the heart of the future
scenario could lead to new forms of urban vulnerabilities of cities: Building economic, social and environmental
in the future that would disproportionately affect already resilience, including appropriate governance and institutional
disadvantaged and vulnerable groups. structures, must be at the heart of the future of cities.
xvi
Economic resilience with new fiscal sustainability frameworks, Chapter 2

societal resilience with universal social protection schemes,
climate resilience with greener investments and stronger Scenarios of Urban Futures: Degree of
multilevel collaboration to confront future shocks must be Urbanization
the building blocks of a resilient urban future.
A new harmonized definition, called the Degree of
Urban areas need to be prepared for dynamic and Urbanization, facilitates international comparisons of
unpredictable futures: The disruptive nature of COVID-19, urbanization. By defining three main classes of human
supply chain disruptions, high inflation, climate change and settlements (cities, towns and semi-dense areas, and rural
armed conflicts are all reminders that urban areas need to be areas), the Degree of Urbanization captures the urban-
prepared for an ever-changing and unpredictable future. Our rural continuum as recommended by research. It provides a
urbanizing world must be adequately equipped for effective pathway to overcoming the fundamental challenge linked to
response to a broad range of shocks, and at the same time, monitoring urban trends and the development agendas that
transition to more sustainable, just, green, resilient and has lingered over the years: the lack of a unified definition of
healthy futures. Global threats require concerted action, what constitutes “urban” and its precise measurement.
which can only be achieved in the spirit of solidarity and
cooperation, as no single government or multilateral agency This chapter provides a unique perspective on future trends
can address such threats alone. using Degree of Urbanization and data emanating from this
new harmonized approach. Specifically, it provides scenarios
Any vision for an optimistic future of cities must embody that allow us to understand the anticipated demographic and
a new social contract with universal basic income, spatial changes across the urban-rural continuum in various
health coverage and housing: Following the disruptions regions as well as their drivers.
wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic, an emerging vision
for an optimistic future in cities is one that embodies a Key findings
new social contract in the form of universal basic income,
universal health coverage and universal housing and basic Fast-paced global growth in city population is behind
services. The emerging vision should seek to make cities us and a future slowdown is in the offing across the
more equitable, one that is greener and more knowledge- urban-rural continuum: New research using the harmonized
based and is resilient across multiple dimensions. definition “Degree of Urbanization” indicates that demographic
growth has already started to slow down and is projected to
Localizing the New Urban Agenda and SDG 11 is the continue over the coming decades. While the city population
most promising pathway to the optimistic scenario of share doubled from 25 per cent in 1950 to about 50 per cent in
urban futures: The global impacts and disruption triggered 2020, it is projected to slowly increase to 58 per cent over the
by the coronavirus pandemic, much of which played out in next 50 years. The share of other settlements in the urban-rural
urban areas, have simply added a sense of urgency and the continuum (towns and semi-dense areas as well as rural areas) is
demand for a change to some of the unsustainable practices expected to decrease; towns and semi-dense areas are expected
in the journey towards more sustainable urban futures. to drop to 24 per cent (from 29 per cent in 2020) and that of
The path to sustainable urban futures will be determined rural areas to 18 per cent (from 22 per cent).
by inclusive and transformative policies to eradicate poverty
and inequality; produce urban economies that provide A slowdown does not indicate no growth—the
opportunities for all; generate greener investment for population of cities in low-income countries is projected
sustainable consumption and production patterns; set the to grow nearly two and a half times by 2070: Low-
framework for responsive urban and territorial planning; income countries have much higher absolute and relative city
implement collaborative and integrated systems of urban population growth than higher income countries. From 1975
governance; prioritize public health; deploy inclusive to 2020, their city population grew fourfold to about 300
innovation and technology; and build resilience, which million. By 2070, their population is projected to exceed 700
enables cities to respond to and withstand a wide range of million. Additionally, projections show that, between 2020
shocks. The localization and effective implementation of the and 2070, the number of cities in low-income countries will
New Urban Agenda serves as a framework for integrating grow far more than in the rest of the world—an increase of
the interrelated components that constitute these pathways. 76 per cent, compared to 6 per cent in upper-middle-income
xvii
countries. High-income and lower-middle-income countries Enhanced planning capacities are needed in low-
will see an increase of about 20 per cent. income countries, especially for smaller and new cities:
Urban and territorial planning that is responsive, anticipates
Most expansion of city land area will occur in low- and effectively addresses the demand for city expansion is
income countries—without effective planning, imperative for sustainable futures in low-income countries.
urban sprawl might become a low-income country City land in these countries is projected to increase nearly
phenomenon: The new data show that changes over the one and a half times over the next 50 years. Notably, a
next five decades—in terms of growth of city land area from significant share of this expansion will come from smaller
2020 levels—will mostly take place in low-income countries and new cities, which may struggle to plan for this growth.
(141 per cent), lower-middle-income (44 per cent) and high- Enhanced capacities in these settlements will strengthen the
income countries (34 per cent). Changes in upper-middle- important role they play across the urban-rural continuum in
income countries is projected to be relatively small (13 per achieving sustainable futures.
cent). This growth is projected to be highest in Oceania and
Sub-Saharan Africa, where it is estimated to (almost) double. Various levels of government need to plan for greying
Growth in city land will be relatively lower in Eastern and cities and towns: Demographic changes mean that in the
South-Eastern Asia (10 per cent), Latin America and the future cities will have a larger share of elderly and a smaller
Caribbean (14 per cent) and Europe (16 per cent). share of children. It is therefore vital to plan for age-friendly
cities and towns that afford good quality of life for all its
Small cities and towns remain critical to achieving inhabitants across all generations. Already, the ageing of
sustainable urban futures in low-income countries: population is a reality in urban areas of high- and upper-
Small cities (less than 250,000 inhabitants) cover almost half middle-income countries.
of city land (about 45 per cent) in low-income countries, a
trend that will persist over the coming decades. Therefore, Urbanization is inevitable, planning for urban growth
adequate territorial planning and enhanced capacities in is critical for sustainable futures: Effective urban and
these settlements can strengthen the pivotal role they play territorial planning is critical to mitigate the negative social,
in realizing sustainable futures in these countries. economic and environmental associated with future urban
growth. The growth of city land in low-income countries,
Key Messages for instance, will require substantial efforts in terms of
both planning and infrastructure investments. Planning
Managing city density is the key future sustainability should be undertaken ahead of this expansion of cities to
challenge for low-income countries: While density halt informality and ensure that there is policy coherence at
scenarios play out differently cities in various regions of the various scales guiding the needed investments.
world, the fast-paced growth in city population in low-income
countries sets them apart. City densities in these countries
need to be planned for and managed in ways that do not exert
pressure on existing open land, infrastructure and services,
resulting in crowding on one hand or leading to unsustainable
sprawl on the other. In these countries, a high-density
scenario, for instance, would see the already high population
density in cities reach 14,000 by 2050 while a low-density
scenario would mean cities need five times the amount of land
to accommodate growth. In contrast, growth in city population
in upper-middle- and high-income countries is lower and cities
are less dense. As a result, they can accommodate future
growth of population without any need to increase the amount
of land. In some cases, the amount of city land is projected to
shrink, such as in Eastern Asia.
xviii
Chapter 3
Saharan Africa are off-track in achieving the goal of ending
poverty by 2030. The region has the highest incidence of
urban poverty globally with about 23 per cent of the urban
Poverty and Inequality: Enduring Features population living below the international poverty line and
of an Urban Future? 29 per cent experiencing multidimensional poverty. The rate
of multidimensional urban poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa is
Cities generate wealth but also concentrate poverty and 11 times higher than in Latin America and the Caribbean.
inequality. From the overcrowded slums in the developing Indeed, poverty is on the rise in close to one-third of the
world to homelessness and pockets of destitution in the countries in Sub-Saharan African. Unless governments at all
developed world, urban poverty and inequality take many levels act decisively, poverty could become an entrenched
forms. We cannot envision a bright future for cities when feature of the future of cities in the region.
inequality appears to be on the rise globally and poverty in
certain regions. How to tackle poverty and inequality are The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the emergence
among the most pressing challenges facing urban areas; and of newly poor people: The COVID-19 pandemic has
improving income and a wide range of opportunities for all is reversed years of remarkable progress made in the fight
essential to achieving an optimistic urban future. The global against poverty. The pandemic has resulted in the emergence
development agenda gives prime of place to the issue, with of newly poor people—that is, those who would have exited
SDG 1, which calls for a world in which we “end poverty in poverty in the absence of the pandemic but remain poor;
all its forms everywhere.” If urban poverty is not addressed, and those who have fallen into poverty on account of the
then this goal will remain elusive. pandemic. In 2020, the pandemic-induced new poor globally
was between 119 and 124 million people; this is projected
Key Findings to have risen to between 143 and 163 million in 2021. A
majority of the new poor will be living in urban areas; thereby,
Urban poverty and inequality remain one of the most presenting additional burden to already overstretched local
intractable challenges confronting cities: Urban poverty governments especially in developing countries.
and inequality are highly complex and multidimensional
challenges whose manifestation go beyond lack of income. Key Messages
Urban poverty and inequality are intertwined; they reinforce
each other to create conditions of disadvantage that Tackling urban poverty and inequality are urgent global
constrain the poor from enjoying the benefits of sustainable priorities: The current COVID-19 pandemic is a reminder
urbanization. The multidimensionality of urban poverty and that the vision of equitable urban futures will not be achieved
inequality should be at the centre of interventions to create unless cities and subnational governments take bold actions
inclusive and equitable urban futures globally. to address the pervasive presence of urban poverty and
inequality. Without urgent and transformative policy action
Without concerted action at all levels, poverty and at all levels, the current situation will only worsen. The long-
inequality could become the face of the future of cities: term costs of each incremental policy choice may not be
Poverty and inequality are increasingly becoming pervasive clear, but each decision could shape the future of cities for
in our cities. In developing countries, slums and informal generations. Wrong decisions by city leaders could entrench
settlements are the most enduring spatial manifestation poverty, deny opportunity for millions and widen urban
of poverty and inequality. For the millions living in slums, disparities in ways that will become increasingly difficult to
access to essential services remains elusive; thus, preventing reverse.
the realization of a better urban future. In cities of developed
countries, pockets of poverty and destitution have become A multidimensional approach is key to an inclusive
entrenched, where minority groups endure marginalization urban future: Within the Decade of Action window (2020-
and stigmatization coupled with underinvestment in urban 2030), cities and subnational governments should adopt
infrastructure. If decisive actions are not taken, urban a multidimensional approach to addressing poverty and
poverty and inequality will become endemic. inequality by investing in infrastructure and essential services,
while addressing the multiple spatial, social and economic
Most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are off-track barriers that foster exclusion. Narrow, sectoral approaches
from ending poverty by 2030: Most countries in Sub- have proved ineffective amid the social, economic, political,
xix
Chapter 4
and environmental crises that trap most residents in poverty.
As part of building sustainable urban futures, the following
dimensions are critical: spatial dimension—access to land,
housing, and infrastructure; social dimension—rights and Resilient Urban Economies: A Catalyst for
participation; and economic dimension—opportunities for Productive Futures
all. Collectively, these factors can lift millions of people out
of poverty and create more equitable and inclusive urban The urban economy is integral to the future of cities. Given
futures. the size of the contribution of cities to the national economy,
the future of many countries will be determined by the
Governments must extend infrastructure and urban productivity of its urban areas. People first gathered in denser
services to underserved communities: Investing in and human settlements for the purpose of trading at markets, and
extending infrastructure and services to deprived urban this fundamental aspect of urban life has evolved over time.
neighbourhoods is a critical policy lever to address poverty Today’s urban economies are complex systems tied to global
and inequality. Access to water and sanitation can be a trade and capital flows, in which foreign entities can own the
matter of life and death for poor urban dwellers. Targeting property next door and distant events can affect the prices
improvements in quality, coverage and affordability to zones for local goods. Cities must be smarter than ever about how
of disadvantage and poverty should be a matter of policy they position their economies for the maximum benefit of
priority. If these transformative measures are implemented, all residents while also safeguarding the environment and
they can change the current negative trends and galvanize improving their city’s quality of life.
actions towards achieving equitable, inclusive and resilient
urban futures. Key Findings
Supporting informal employment is critical for When planning their economic future, cities cannot
building inclusive urban futures: Informality is a reality overlook the informal sector: Recognizing and supporting
of urbanization especially in developing countries. Looking the informal sector is vital for urban economic resilience
into the future, cities should halt the exclusion of informal and productive urban futures, particularly in developing
sector workers in all spheres of urban endeavour. Cities and countries. Given the contribution of the informal sector,
subnational governments should acknowledge the legitimate cities should adopt a transformative urban economic
contributions of informal workers and stop their harassment agenda that is inclusive and equitable. Approaches to
and penalization. The rights of informal workers should be urban planning, governance and international development
guaranteed. These rights include legal recognition, economic should be reformed to make them responsive to the needs
and social rights, access to essential services and better of informal sector workers. This should be backed by the
representation in policymaking. Cities will not be able to necessary support mechanisms such as access to finance
offer a bright urban future if their informal sector workers (and relief during crises), markets and infrastructure to boost
are perpetually excluded from urban development processes. the resilience of informal economy actors to shocks and
strengthen their contribution to productive urban futures.
Gender transformative approaches are crucial for
building inclusive urban futures: Going forward, cities Future economic growth and resilience cannot be
and subnational governments should prioritize inclusive sustained without bridging the infrastructure gaps
and gender-transformative responses that are co-produced across the urban-rural continuum: Cities and subnational
with vulnerable urban populations. Cities should focus governments should prioritize infrastructure investments
on developing inclusive urban governance processes that towards building resilient urban economies and prosperous
promote transformative resilience to multiple risks by using urban futures. This includes targeting underserved
local knowledge in the face of uncertainty. Urban leaders neighbourhoods such as slums and informal settlements
should draw on grassroots, civil society and private-sector and marginalized neighbourhoods who bear the brunt of
efforts and build local alliances to deliver more effective underinvestment in infrastructure. Investments should
strategies and co-design solutions to urban poverty and also be directed towards transport infrastructure systems
inequality. to enhance the competitiveness of cities and enable urban
productivity.
xx
Sustainable urban and territorial planning supported stresses, cities should utilize existing and potential resources
by effective governance structures is critical for to diversify their economies. Diversification of urban
building resilient urban economies and productive economies should be supported by targeted investment
urban futures: In developing countries, more focus should and strategies to shift production structures towards new
be on institutional capacity building to enable sustainable sources of growth. Failure to diversify urban economies will
planning and management of urban development. Cities that make cities extremely vulnerable to future shocks, especially
are well planned and managed perform better in optimizing in developing regions and in cities that heavily depend on
and reaping the benefits of economies of agglomeration. If single industries such as tourism, manufacturing or natural
cities continue to grow in a disconnected and fragmented resource extraction.
manner, the opportunities of leveraging economies of scale
and urban agglomeration will be missed. Cities should embrace the circular economy as a new
frontier in the pursuit of sustainability and resilience:
Sustainable and innovative municipal finance is The New Urban Agenda promotes the adoption of policies
fundamental: Cities must diversify their revenue that lead to a circular urban economy in order to move
sources by mobilizing sustainable, innovative and resilient consumption and production away from unsustainable
revenue sources. The COVID-19 pandemic has shown that patterns. Gazing into the future, cities must facilitate and
overreliance on traditional revenue sources like property promote greener recovery for resilient economies. Adopting
taxes could have potentially crippling effects on the fiscal the circular economy can potentially generate additional
health of cities. Revenue mobilization should be back by decent and productive jobs, which are catalysts for urban
institutional reforms to grant cities adequate fiscal autonomy productivity.
to experiment with new financing instruments such as land
value capture and municipal bonds, as well as to provide Measures to achieve balanced and integrated urban
them leverage to reform their tax systems in line with their and territorial economic development must be put in
economic bases. These innovative financing instruments place today to avert skewed development tomorrow. In
(especially when aligned with sustainability ambitions) can line with the call of the New Urban Agenda for balanced
serve as important levers to catalyse economically impactful urban and territorial development, cities and subnational
capital investments that create long-term value for citizens, governments should put in place measures to ensure
businesses and the city as a whole; thus, contributing to that economic growth is equitable across territories.
resilient and productive urban futures. Full implementation of national urban policies should
be a priority. Other measures could include targeted
Key Messages infrastructure investments in secondary and intermediate
cities that have been left behind. This focus will enhance
Economic diversification is a critical pillar for urban the competitiveness of secondary cities, set their economies
economic resilience and productive urban futures: The towards sustainable growth and build resilience to future
New Urban Agenda encourages governments to prioritize shocks.
economic diversification by progressively supporting the
transition to higher productivity through high-value-added The accelerated pace of transformation in the world of
sectors, technological innovations and creating quality, decent work calls for continual talent and skills development
and productive jobs. In order to withstand future shocks and to achieve urban economic resilience and productive
futures: Cities should focus on investing in human capacity
development to build skills and competences that are in sync
with rapid transformations taking place and the emerging
new urban economy. Developing skills and talent for human
capital is vital for inclusive and sustainable urban growth as
it aligns with SDG 8 on promoting productive employment
and decent work for all. The new urban economy requires
re-skilling of workers to adapt to technological changes. A
well-trained workforce is a prerequisite for resilient urban
economies and productive urban futures.
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Chapter 5
for collective action to deliver low carbon and resilient urban
futures at the local level.
Securing a Greener Urban Future The world is losing the opportunity to use the post-
pandemic context as a catalytic moment to facilitate
Climate change and environmental concerns increasingly investment for a transition to net zero carbon emissions:
dominate future scenarios. The increase in extreme weather While the COVID-19 pandemic represented a significant
events and natural disasters like flooding, heatwaves and setback in achieving poverty reductions and the SDGs, it
landslides will impact urban areas the hardest, which presented a potential inflection point for change toward
makes climate change adaptation a paramount concern. sustainability. However, the window of opportunity opened
Meanwhile, urban areas are responsible for the majority of by the crisis to rethink human-environmental relations and
the world’s carbon emissions. As such, the transition to net mobilize recovery funds for environmental sustainability is
zero greenhouse gas emissions must occur as soon as feasibly closing rapidly, with carbon emissions again soaring and the
possible. Cities can do their part by embracing a wide range extinction crisis unabated.
of options.
Greener futures cannot be secured without just
Key Findings transitions: Alongside new technical possibilities to facilitate
resource efficiency in sectors such as energy and transport,
The transition to net zero GHG emissions has been urban policies must recognize how the informal sector serves
marked by a lack of ambition and policy pitfalls: There the needs of many urban residents. A well-documented
has been a growth of interest in net zero policies to facilitate example is informal motorized and non-motorized transport
sustainability transitions at the local level. However, current that serve many disadvantaged communities in urban areas.
net zero policies have pitfalls, including an overreliance on A just transition will need to incorporate the concerns of
underdeveloped technologies that overlook local resources this sector, alongside technological improvements. Urban
and the lack of integration of local governance strategies planning must be inclusive to effectively cater for the
in national programmes for action. Meanwhile, the lack of informal services sectors that work for the urban poor.
ambition in the current national commitments to net zero
also echoes a lack of imagination in defining alternative Key Messages
urban futures.
Policymakers at all levels must recognize and support
The twin crises of climate change and the loss of global the role of urban areas in the net zero transition:
biodiversity threaten the futures of cities: Climate Besides actions at the national level, achieving net zero is
impacts and other environmental crises interact with drivers also dependent on subnational and city-level action. There
of urban inequality, affecting people’s capacity to anticipate is, therefore, a need to develop policies to support action
the impact, then respond and recover from them. Dealing at the subnational level, limiting carbon emissions or
with future risks—including environmental risks— has reducing vulnerabilities. In addition, current instruments at
become one of the main concerns for local governments and the national level need to be aligned with local priorities.
other urban-based actors, eliciting diverse responses. At the very least, there should be coordination between
various levels of governance to ensure that national-level
Inclusive spaces to deliver green urban futures are policy is designed in ways that does not curtail or limit local
necessary for sustainability transitions: There are many experimentation by multiple actors.
cases where significant infrastructure and transport projects
are accomplished at the expense of various social groups in Nature-based solutions must be part of inclusive
urban areas, in some cases entrenching existing inequalities planning processes for sustainable urban futures:
and vulnerabilities. Transition and resilience agendas Nature-inspired approaches to urban planning, urban
foreground the need to align social and environmental governance and urban design are revolutionizing current
justice goals with the policy priorities of the SDGs and thinking about cities and urban services. To achieve
the New Urban Agenda. The interaction between global sustainable urban futures, local action cannot overlook
and local partnerships is further making broader inclusion this trend. Nature-based solutions offer the opportunity to
possible. Additionally, there are also growing opportunities develop a wide range of responses to urban environmental
xxii
Chapter 6
challenges that harness nature for urban sustainability. Many
of these responses can be integrated into urban planning and
are often low-cost.
Urban Planning for the Future of Cities
Future-oriented thinking, such as scenario analysis,
requires plural politics that ensure diverse voices Cities are complex systems that grow, develop and even
are heard to minimize uncertainties in the pathways shrink based on a variety of forces. Planning is an essential
to securing greener urban futures: Building net zero tool for shaping the future of cities, as unplanned human
scenarios can be challenging as it involves long time frames settlements are prone to sprawl, inefficient land use, poor
and detailed speculation on technological and social changes, connectivity and a lack of adequate municipal services. Good
with inferences across different sectors and processes. urban planning is one of the three pillars of sustainable cities,
Ensuring that diverse voices are heard in such scenario- without which cities are unlikely to achieve the optimistic
building approaches will minimize the perception of such scenario of urban futures.
scenarios as technocratic and limiting stakeholders’ agency
as well as eliminate simplified assumptions about social and Key Findings
political dynamics.
Recovery to pre-COVID normal is likely to delay climate
Various levels of government and institutions can action in cities: While in many cities, emissions plunged
harness the potential of international partnerships to unprecedentedly low levels during the lockdowns, rapid
such as transnational networks and social movements recovery to pre-COVID levels was observed after easing
in delivering greener urban futures: Social movements, mobility restrictions with an observed increase in car
for instance, are the new point of hope for climate and dependency. There are concerns that economic recovery
biodiversity action as new generations (supported by old actions could derail many activities aimed at urban climate
ones) clarify that business as usual is not an option. Social change adaptation and mitigation. Interventions in the
movements can foster innovation and transitions towards net energy and transport sectors are key to the success or failure
zero. There is increasing evidence of innovation and feasible of climate action in cities.
responses coming from informal settlements and various
community groups. The COVID-19 pandemic, in particular, Current planning approaches continue to enable
has shown how local responses can support solidarity and vulnerable groups to be disproportionately affected by
resilience, primarily when invested in partnerships with local pandemics: Vulnerable groups such as ethnic minorities
and regional governments. and the urban poor have been disproportionately affected
by the worst impacts of the pandemic, making it difficult to
Support diverse forms of knowledge in environmental contain the spread of infectious diseases in cities. Modern
decision-making to achieve sustainable urban futures: urban planning has achieved limited success in equitably
Today, hierarchies of knowledge persist, in which some distributing resources. Profound inequalities have existed
forms of knowing are consistently valued above others. in cities for several decades, persist in the present and will
Local governments and local institutions can support diverse possibly continue into the future without urgent changes in
forms of knowledge—including indigenous knowledge, the way cities are planned.
local knowledge and traditional knowledge—that respond
to global demands and acknowledge specificity. This also Urban indoor and outdoor spaces are not versatile and
requires redefining vulnerable groups from passive victims flexible enough: The pandemic revealed issues related to
as active urban change agents (following the slogan “nothing the lack of versatility and flexibility in the design of indoor
for us, without us”). and outdoor spaces. It increased the demand for multi-
purpose and flexible spaces that can adapt to new situations,
which is a significant shift from traditional urban planning
practices like single-use zoning that often overlook flexibility
and adaptability. Moving forward, there is a need for changes
in the design of urban building layouts, working spaces,
shopping malls, and open/public spaces to make them more
flexible and adaptive to future shocks.
xxiii
Compact cities are pandemic resilient: Concerns over City authorities should invest in the multiple co-benefits
density being a risk factor to the rise of pandemics has resulted of green infrastructure development: Integrating green
in outmigration in some cities and could lead to new waves of infrastructure into the design of streets, street networks and
suburbanization and urban sprawl with major socioeconomic open spaces is an effective way to enhance their flexibility
and environmental implications. No compelling evidence has and multi-functionality. Indeed, creating networks of green
been reported on the role of density in virus transmission areas and green spaces will allow better responses to future
and mortality rates. However, there is consensus that density pandemics while also providing co-benefits for climate
alone is not a major risk factor, and other factors such as change mitigation, adaptation and health by restoring and
income, infrastructure access and residential overcrowding regenerating natural ecosystems.
could be more influential. A lack of access to health care and
other services will increase vulnerability to pandemics and Embrace the “15-minute city” concept as a model
other future adverse events. for creating walkable, mixed-use and compact
neighbourhoods: As a new planning approach, the “15-
Urban-rural interlinkages are overlooked in urban minute city” can guide the development of neighbourhoods
planning and decision-making practices: Urban where residents can meet most of their daily needs within a
planning approaches continue to place limited emphasis on 15-minute travel time on foot, cycle, micro-mobility or public
urban-rural linkages despite cities being dependent on their transport. Through the integration of green infrastructure,
hinterlands for natural resources, commodities and multiple this model can also provide multiple co-benefits for health,
types of ecosystem services. Urban areas experience dynamic equity, and climate change adaptation and mitigation.
and non-linear flows both in and out of cities whether goods, It is, however, necessary to make sure that 15-minute
trade, human movement or species migration. Such high neighbourhoods do not exacerbate spatial inequalities in
connectivity levels have implications for resilience as shocks cities by becoming enclaves for wealthy urbanites that fail to
and disruptions in one part of the system could rapidly integrate into the overall urban structure.
spread to the other parts.
Urban actors must break down silos in pursuit of
Key Messages integrated urban and territorial planning: Planning
should move away from silo-based approaches toward
Urban planning should urgently pursue climate action integrated plans and policies that consider interactions
as a basis for greener urban futures: Measures taken between multiple factors in a city region such as the
to recover from the pandemic should help cities mitigate hinterlands and surrounding ecosystems. Such socio-
and better respond to climate change, which is a major ecological approaches are more sustainable and resilient
threat looming over cities. There is need for a continued against present and future adverse events.
paradigm shift toward environmentally friendly and human-
centric energy and mobility options. This can be achieved
through efficient public transport and active mobility when
integrated with energy-efficient modes such as electric
vehicles powered by clean energy.
Post-COVID recovery should ensure a transition to

more equitable and inclusive urban futures for all:
Recovery programmes should prioritize addressing the needs
of vulnerable and marginalized groups, including ethnic
minorities, urban poor, immigrants, refugees, and those who
are precariously employed or housed. To seize the pandemic
as an opportunity to reform our cities and build back batter,
it is essential to carefully assess the impacts on marginalized
groups and ensure they are adequately engaged in planning
processes.
xxiv
Chapter 7
longer-lasting extreme weather events, particularly floods and
heatwaves. These and other disasters translate to complex
overlapping urban health burdens, starting with immediate
Public Health and Sustainable Urban injuries, mortality, displacement and lost livelihoods amongst
Futures affected residents. Broader impacts include rising levels of
urban water insecurity, increased rates of waterborne illness
As history attests, the productivity and resilience of cities and escalating food prices and food insecurity. Unabated, these
is undergirded by effective public health. Beyond hospitals, conditions create a fertile ground for the high damage urban
medicines and vaccines, equitable provision of health- future scenario where health vulnerabilities are amplified, and
promoting infrastructure such as green spaces, improved poverty and inequality persist over the long term.
housing, clean and safe drinking water, and extensive sewer
systems to safely dispose of human waste are necessary The increase in mental related illnesses is a growing
minimum components for securing public health in urban urban health concern: Mental disorders are in the top
areas. While COVID-19 led to the first major global pandemic 10 leading causes of disease burdens globally, and the
in a century, the future portends more epidemics and number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to
pandemics. Public health is now once again at the forefront mental illness has increased by over 55 per cent over the
in envisioning the future of cities. last two decades. Rising levels of depression, anxiety and
other mental health impacts have been linked to COVID-
Key Findings 19, particularly for essential workers, those with heightened
caring duties (especially women), racial/ethnic minorities
Urban health risks are multi-layered and change rapidly: and other vulnerable groups.
Since 2020, cities have had to grapple with more than just
COVID-19 as Ebola, bird flu, H1N1 flu, MERS, SARS and Zika The shift in armed conflicts to urban battlegrounds is
outbreaks occurred at different times and in different cities. another growing concern that could lead to the high
The HIV-AIDS epidemic continues to be of concern with damage scenario for urban futures: The use of heavy
elevated rates of infection amongst marginalized groups such weaponry in towns and cities inevitably leads to heavier
as racial/ethnic minorities, migrants and intravenous drug civilian casualties and destruction of interconnected basic
users. Moreover, climate-related risks are now increasingly infrastructure such as water, sanitation, gas and electricity
contributing to urban deaths and ill health. Annually, an lines leaving fragile communities highly susceptible to
estimated 7 million people die prematurely due to air infectious diseases. Further, armed conflicts disrupt health
pollution. Urban food system transformations towards ultra- systems including physical destruction of hospitals, flight
processed foods with high levels of fat and sugar have led to of healthcare workers and interruption of child vaccination
the progressive increase of diet-related health risks and the and communicable disease surveillance programmes. These
rising toll of non-communicable diseases in both low-income health systems require intense time and resource investments
and higher-income cities. to rebuild. Consequently, the occurrence of armed conflict
can lead to prolonged instabilities and intractable poverty as
In many urban areas, the same health risks are experienced resources are diverted away from development long after the
and acted upon in different ways: These differences are weapons are silenced.
attributed to racial divides, gendered discrimination, xenophobia
and other sources of disadvantage. If left unchecked, these Key Messages
health inequities could lead to the pessimistic or even high
damage urban future scenario. An improved understanding If cities take the Health in All Policies Approach, they
of how multiple factors contribute to urban health disparities can make progress on multiple SDGs: By mainstreaming
at several levels and sites (including homes, workplaces and the Health in All Policies (HiAP) approach, cities can realize
neighbourhoods) is key to effective interventions that can avoid multiple benefits and unlock synergies between health
entrenching urban health inequities. and sustainable development pathways. Adding a health
perspective in urban decision-making can simultaneously
Climate change is the foremost urban health threat and improve health (SDG 3), tackle poverty (SDG 1), foster
risks leading to the high damage urban future scenario: gender equality (SDG 5) and enhance access to clean energy
Climate change manifests in more frequent, intense and and climate-resilient infrastructure (SDGs 7 and 9).
xxv
Local governments are best placed to design and Governments should provide universal health coverage
implement multisectoral approaches to effectively to strengthen future health system preparedness:
realize healthy urban futures: A multisectoral approach With the anticipation of future epidemics and pandemics,
is necessary because health is an essential component of inequitable access to quality healthcare compromises the
sustainable urbanization given its impact on and interrelation collective health and well-being for all. COVID-19 has
with social, economic and environmental targets. Responsive, unequivocally demonstrated that in an interconnected
accountable local governments play a pivotal role in world, infectious diseases mock geographic, socioeconomic
translating global and national targets to effective place-based and other privilege boundaries. As part of the new social
interventions that generate multiple co-benefits for health, contract, governments should provide universal health
inclusion and climate change mitigation. Local governments, coverage that secures equitable access as well as sufficient
however, need stable funding, long-term political support quality and affordability of healthcare for effective response
and effective mechanisms for public engagement. to urban health crises in the future.
Ongoing disaggregated data collection is essential Addressing mental illness is an urgent priority not
for effective responses to future urban health risks: only for supporting health and dignity but also for
Since urban health risks are multilayered and change continued economic and social development: Improving
rapidly, policymakers require ongoing data collection with access to mental health programmes and developing holistic
attention to emerging and differentiated health challenges strategies to address mental illness remain a key concern
in urban areas. Using disaggregated data to inform inclusive globally, especially in the wake of COVID-19. Key priorities
interventions, policymakers can develop holistic multisectoral for equitable, inclusive mental health initiatives include
initiatives that address complex urban health inequities additional investments that link mental health with universal
and support locally rooted solutions. City authorities can health coverage and primary healthcare interventions.
leverage digital technology such as telemedicine and drones, The new approach to mental health must move beyond
as well as community-led citizen science, to collect data from biomedical techniques and instead seek to address the
marginalized and hard-to-reach groups to ensure they leave social determinants of health such as improving access to
no one behind. urban green spaces and enhancing social cohesion, as well as
countering stigma facing those with mental illness.
xxvi
Chapter 8
issues, as well as exchange experience and learn from each
other to adapt governance approaches to evolving future
challenges.
Rethinking Urban Governance for the Future
of Cities A lack of human and financial capacity continues to
strain sustainable urbanization: Cities, especially in
Whichever future urban challenge cities face, whether developing countries, continue to lack adequate capacity to
it is poverty, health, housing or the environment, urban address current and future challenges. A lack of resources and
governance always has a critical enabling role to ensure trained professionals limits the capacity needed to implement
that the capacities and resources of institutions and people transformative changes, while also creating conditions for
match their responsibilities and desires. Sustainable urban corruption. The future of multilevel governance relies on
development is not possible without effective multilevel effective decentralization of decision-making, enhancing
urban governance – including local governments, civil local fiscal autonomy and stronger links between national
society and national governments. Governments have been urban policies and cities.
severely tested since 2020, which means now is the time to
rethink urban governance and put cities on the path to an Civil society and participatory process are under
optimistic future scenario. threat: While many cities are engaging in innovative
participatory processes, globally, the space for civil society is
Key Findings shrinking. State-initiated participation can be tokenistic and
is often disregarded in crisis situations. Evidence of, or even
A spatial justice approach is essential to respond to the perception of corruption, or mishandling of finances
shocks: A spatial justice approach that includes vulnerable undermines trust between the government and civil society.
residents in decision-making has proven to be essential If this trend continues, the future of cities will be more
in responding to future global shocks. Cities with a more authoritarian.
equitable and accessible distribution of basic services were
better able to protect vulnerable and high-risk communities Key Messages
from the COVID-19 pandemic. Cities with more autonomy in
local government are better positioned to respond to health Future urban governance should institutionalize the
care crisis with contextualized knowledge and experiment mindset of planning for shocks and disruptions: For
with different approaches and service delivery. urban governance to be prepared for an age of global threats
and disruptions it will require collaborative and concerted
COVID-19 accelerated the digitalization of urban action to prepare processes and systems that can withstand
governance: Physical distancing and lockdowns required and recover from shocks in an effective and inclusive way.
governments to rapidly scale up their use of digital technology There is a need to institutionalize planning frameworks
to conduct basic functions. This trend provides opportunities that incorporate disruptions as a central element and learn
for the future of urban governance as governments can from previous shocks and challenges. Effective multilevel
use new technologies to make data collection more governance for disruptions needs to balance clear legal
reliable, provide more open data, communicate better with frameworks with a flexible approach to new partnerships,
residents and improve service delivery. But cities also have cooperation, solidarity and collective action within and
a responsibility to govern how new technologies are used between state and non-state actors.
and work to eliminate the digital divide while protecting the
safety and privacy of residents. The need to build trust and legitimacy of institutions
is crucial for the future of urban governance: With the
City diplomacy and international city networks are anticipated rise in global shocks including climate, security
increasing in number and political potency: Cities and and public health crises, the need for trust and legitimacy of
subnational governments are reasserting themselves on the institutions is crucial. With ever larger cities, the distance
international stage and supplementing national governments between governments and their citizens has increased.
where national frameworks are lacking. City diplomacy and Effective communication, meaningful participation
international city networks provide an emerging opportunity opportunities and accountability structures built into
for cities of all sizes and geographies to address transnational integrated governance relationships are all necessary
xxvii
Chapter 9
responses for addressing the trust equation. In light of the
digitalization of urban governance, maintaining privacy and
security of data should be a priority for maintaining trust.
Innovation and Technology: Towards
The future of effective local government relies on well- Knowledge-Based Urban Futures
coordinated metropolitan governance: Future urban
areas are projected to grow far beyond the boundaries of Advances in technology and urban futures are inextricably
any particular jurisdiction, which necessitates new and linked. The future of cities will be knowledge-based,
adaptable urban governance and management frameworks. driven largely by innovation and the widespread use of
Metropolitan governance with institutionalized frameworks new technologies and digitization of virtually all facets of
has demonstrated an ability to optimize coordination, engage urban life. Technological innovations define the twenty-first
secondary and rural communities, and create collaborative century. Cities are going through a wave of digitalization
approaches in mitigation, adaptation and recovery efforts. that is reshaping how urban dwellers live, work, learn and
The future of metropolitan governance, however, is plural: play. Technology holds great promise for improving urban
there is no single metropolitan model of governance that livelihoods, but there are also risks that smart city technology
works everywhere. Metropolitan governance needs to will invade privacy. Cities, meanwhile, are competing for
have adequate political and institutional legitimacy, clearly innovation-based businesses in a race that will create both
defined roles and need capacity and resources that meet winners and losers in urban futures.
their responsibilities.
Key Findings
National governments should enable better local
government finances to respond to the challenges Innovation and technology play an increasingly central
of urbanization: Effective models for collaborative role in planning for urban futures: This arises from
governance, financing and integrated development should rapid advances in technological developments, the pace of
be responsive to ever-changing future conditions and needs. urbanization, and the scale of urban challenges requiring
Financial managers should resist parachuting normative best systemic responses. Urban innovation extends beyond
practices into inappropriate contexts. Sustainable urban technology: it also encompasses social and organizational
development requires comprehensive and context specific innovation, which recognizes the important contribution
financial management that includes diverse sources of of civic organizations and community groups to urban
funding. Clearer national regulation and more decentralized development, and the benefits of more open and collaborative
governance plays an important enabling role to a financially local government.
solvent urban future, making transfers to local governments
more regular and allowing cities to borrow and issues bonds. Digitalization and automation are transforming urban
economies: Smaller cities and suburban areas may benefit
The future of equitable service delivery relies on from the shift towards hybrid working (accelerated by the
governance through modes of co-production with COVID-19 pandemic). Larger cities may be less exposed to
relevant stakeholders: Achieving equitable outcomes with the impacts of automation, given the concentration of highly
respect for human rights and the well-being of residents will skilled professionals. Significant changes in the mix of job
require urban policymakers to re-envision their relationship occupancies can be expected in the formal economy in
with the public. Governments need to fully acknowledge both developed and developing countries. Some cities offer
and invest in slum dwellers and their organizations as true re-skilling programmes to prepare residents for the future
development partners. Special attention must be paid to of work. In informal economies, digitalization may provide
underrepresented groups and co-create strategies such as significant opportunities.
re-municipalization, community-led finance and forms of
co-production of urban services. Civil society has different The urgency to decarbonize urban economies is driving
roles—as service providers, agents for civic engagement and the convergence of green and smart technologies: A
enforcers of social accountability, and as financiers through key feature of smart environmental technologies is their
philanthropy—and the future of urban governance needs to suitability for flexible, modular designs and local adaptations.
ensure regulation better reflects the different roles they play The benefits include sustainable energy production, improved
in society. resilience and financial incentives (e.g. feed-in tariff) for
xxviii
residents. The trend towards more localized applications City governments should embrace low-carbon
highlights the importance of on-the-ground partnerships and technology but mitigate negative environmental effects:
community buy-in. The combination of green and smart technologies creates
new opportunities for small-scale and small-grid, modular,
There is a rapid growth in the demand for smart city and flexible systems and applications. Together with their
technology: The demand for smart city systems and solutions relative affordability, this can benefit communities, towns
is estimated to increase annually by 25 per cent, with an and cities with limited financial and infrastructural resources.
overall market value of approximately US$517 billion. This But cities need to consider the negative environmental
is driven by governments investing in technology to meet externalities when investing in low carbon and digital and
the demands of an urbanizing world. This also based on connected technologies. This includes environmental
rapid advancements in digital and connected technologies problems associated with the mining of rare earths (e.g.
and their ubiquity in everyday life. The speed with which lithium for batteries), toxic electronic waste and high energy
cities are adopting smart technology is illustrated by strong consumption of some technologies (e.g. blockchain).
demand for Internet of Things technology, with over 20 per
cent annual growth forecast for the coming years. Similarly, Local governments need to prepare their economies for
blockchain technology is predicted to grow by over 30 per the effects of advancing automation and digitalization:
cent in the next few years. Artificial Intelligence technologies This includes taking an active approach to digital (labour)
are increasingly deployed by municipal governments in the platforms, if necessary, with appropriate regulation to address
form of virtual agents like chatbots. the problem of precarious work. There is an important
agenda for skills development and training, to counter the
Technological advances risk exacerbating existing, risk of growing social inequalities and exclusion arising from
and generating new, socioeconomic inequalities: The technological advances. This should particularly focus on
digital divide tends to adversely affect women, the elderly, those on the wrong side of digital and environmental divides.
ethnic minorities and immigrants most acutely. Cities can Mobilizing community members as trainers can be useful,
mitigate this with measures include providing affordable for example in informal settlements.
Internet access, skills training and community support.
An environmental divide occurs when urban sustainability Cities can use digital tools innovatively to improve
initiatives disproportionally benefit middle-class residents. the provision of public services and local decision-
Cities are faced with a series of complex ethical, legal, making: To avoid top-down, one-way communication, digital
and technical issues through the introduction of frontier tools need to be inclusive, collaborative and empowering.
technologies, such as drones and autonomous vehicles. This Their use needs to align with wider offline decision-making
requires careful assessment. Several initiatives have been structures and processes. While full technological sovereignty
put in place to mitigate the risks of digitalization and other may be out of reach, city governments have an opportunity
technological innovations. and responsibility to co-determine how innovation and
technology are designed for, and applied in, cities. They
Key Messages should initiate, and participate in, technology assessments,
and involve other urban stakeholders in the process.
Innovation practices need to be tailored to local
contexts: Smaller cities, and cities in emerging and
developing countries, may need alternative approaches to
innovation than those pursued by world cities and major
metropolitan regions. Cities can use their convening power
to nurture a culture of innovation with a focus on addressing
major urban challenges. Innovation should be approached
more broadly than traditional research and development by
involving a wider range of stakeholders, including civil society
organizations and community groups. City governments can
lead by example, by innovating in more open, collaborative,
and inclusive planning and decision-making.
xxix
become feasible and be initiated without substantive reform
Chapter 10
or realignment of governance institutions and processes.
Moreover, such changes are often complex, messy and
slow. Conversely, substantive gains can be made under
Building Resilience for Sustainable Urban broadly existing arrangements, promoted by appropriate
Futures champions among officials and elected representatives, and
that do not demand unrealistic institutional reinventions as
Any scenario of urban futures outlined in this Report a prerequisite.
will face unexpected shocks and stresses. Will a given
city collapse like a house of cards or withstand whatever Science and technology are evolving rapidly and
unpredictable future comes their way? The answer to that opening new possibilities for positive change: However,
question lies in a city’s resilience, a capacity that bookends the equity and justice dimensions to such technological
all of the discussion up to this point. A key message deployments are often overlooked. Who benefits and who
running through this Report is that building economic, suffers when constraints are introduced? The costs and
social and environmental resilience, including appropriate benefits of specific technologies or an entire technology-
governance and institutional structures must be at the driven package like smart cities, when introduced into
heart of the future of cities. Cities that are well-planned, particular contexts, need explicit inclusion in planning,
managed, and financed have a strong foundation to prepare decision-making and monitoring.
for such unknown future threats. Moreover, cities that are
socially inclusive and work for all their residents are also Effective urban resilience capacity building requires
better positioned to face environmental, public health, mainstreaming across local government: Proactive
economic, social and any other variety of shock or stress, as climate change, vulnerability and disaster risk reduction and
cities are only as strong as their weakest link. pandemic response policies cannot be undertaken as add-ons
to other work or concentrated in one specific department,
Key Findings but rather must be incorporated into the annual and multi-
year workplans and design standards of all departments.
Resilience thinking has embraced the “building back In turn, this requires effective forward-looking design and
differently” mentality: The schools of thought on urban planning frameworks that factor in local forecasts of future
resilience continue to evolve and now emphasize the climatic, environmental and public health conditions so that
importance of positive change in recovery processes to infrastructure, buildings and services are built or retrofitted
reduce urban poverty and inequality as key determinants of to appropriate standards to withstand best estimates of
vulnerability and risk exposure. This means addressing the conditions that will prevail over the coming decades.
spatial and environmental as well as social inequality and
injustice that are reflected in the urban built environment. Key Messages
Resilience practitioners can benefit from several Governments already have a roadmap to urban
diagnostic, monitoring and evaluation frameworks: resilience in the global sustainable development
The most widely used of these tools is the City Resilience agenda: The multilateral system has laid out a framework
Index. These frameworks examine the economic, social, for achieving urban resilience in the form of the SDGs, the
environmental and institutional dimensions of resilience. New Urban Agenda, Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk
However, addressing these dimensions separately risks Reduction, the Addis Ababa Action Agenda and the Paris
negative trade-offs. Maximizing added value and prospects Agreement on Climate Change. Together these documents
for success therefor requires integrated and holistic policy provide a coherent framework for integrated, multi-level
and practice, as emphasized through the analysis of good action that recognizes the importance of subnational entities,
governance and integrated, holistic policy and planning. particularly local governments, in building resilience.
There is no either/or dividing line between incremental Building substantive urban resilience must be
and transformational change in human settlements: multisectoral, multidimensional and multi-stakeholder:
If the current context has clearly prevented a step-change The process of making cities more resilient only works if it
to transformational adaptation, it is unlikely suddenly to is forward-looking, inclusive of all stakeholders (including
xxx
the marginalized and poor) and proactive. It also provides Visioning and implementation of urban resilience
an integrated investment in preparedness and building back plans must prioritize the poorest and most vulnerable
differently, not just building back, or building back better communities: These categories of urban residents face the
along the same lines that perpetuate existing inequalities brunt of hazards and risks due to their location, as frequently
and injustice. Hence, as with sustainability, resilience is they are confined to less desirable and more risky urban
about increasing equity while reducing poverty and injustice. land. Such populations are disproportionately experiencing
cascades or chains of increasingly frequent and often
Policymakers must match urban risk assessments severe impacts that are compounding their vulnerability by
with appropriate solutions: Cities face a diverse range of undermining their assets and resilience.
hazards, including but not limited to pandemics and climate
change, and must create accurate, localized and downscaled Building urban resilience will not succeed without
assessments of those threats. But without appropriate public participation: Resilience is not a top-down process
remedial steps, cities risk leaving their citizens despondent. but rather a bottom-up one, and any effort to prepare resilience
Furthermore, short-term plans and interventions, such as plans, draft policies or implement projects will have greater
those within a single planning, budget or electoral cycle, prospects for success if undertaken using active participatory
must align with those for the medium and longer terms, methods so that all residents and stakeholders are involved
which are the relevant time horizons for addressing structural in planning and decision-making. Through co-production and
inequalities and so-called “wicked” challenges like building co-design of resilience, residents will develop a shared sense
sustainability and resilience. of ownership alongside local government.
xxxi
Chapter 1:
The Diversity of Cities and
Visions for Urban Futures
1
The Diversity of Cities and Visions for Urban Futures
Quick facts
1. Cities are here to stay, and the future of humanity is undoubtedly urban, but not exclusively
in large metropolitan areas.
2. Urbanization will continue to be a transformative, but uneven process that will require
differentiated responses depending on the diversity of the urban context.
3. The worst-case scenario of urban futures will have disastrous consequences for cities;
thus, resulting in economic uncertainties, environmental challenges and exacerbate existing
vulnerabilities.
4. A business-as-usual approach will result in a pessimistic scenario of urban futures

characterized by the systemic discrimination and exclusion of the poor in urban agendas.
5. With concerted policy action, it is possible for cities to avoid either of the high damage or
pessimistic scenarios and instead emerge into a more optimistic urban future.
Policy points
1. The emergence of urbanization as a global mega-trend is intertwined with the existential
challenges that the world has faced in the last 50 years.
2. Building economic, social and environmental resilience, including appropriate governance

and institutional structures, must be at the heart of the future of cities.
3. The disruptive nature of COVID-19 and the emerging global uncertainties are all stark
reminders that urban areas need to be prepared for an ever-changing and unpredictable
future.
4. Any vision for an optimistic future of cities must embody a new social contract with
universal basic income, health coverage and housing.
5. Localizing the New Urban Agenda and SDG 11 is the most promising pathway to the
optimistic scenario of urban futures.
2
1.1 What Futures for Cities? adopted in the last decade, in the quest to find long-term
solutions to global challenges such as the ongoing pandemic,
Policymakers, researchers and urban residents have long been climate change, inequality and rising poverty. Since 2020,
preoccupied with the future of cities, particularly in charting armed conflict has also taken centre stage among pressing
the divergent demographic, economic, social, environmental challenges that impede sustainable urban development.
and policy pathways that will lead towards more sustainable Years old conflict has persisted in Syria and Yemen, while new
outcomes.1 This preoccupation is due to a greater recognition conflicts have flared up in Ethiopia, Myanmar and Ukraine.
in the multilateral system of the role that urban areas play The seizure of power in Afghanistan by the Taliban in 2021
in securing sustainable futures across a range of key global was also tumultuous for human settlements across the
issues, including climate change, inclusive economic growth, urban-rural continuum. These conflicts are reminders that
poverty eradication, housing, infrastructure, basic services, the spectre of war remains an enduring threat even in the
productive employment, food security and public health.2 twenty-first century. Ultimately, however, the lessons from
Analysis of a range of urban futures offers an investigative the pandemic offer an opportunity to reflect on the role of
and diagnostic view on how cities can be prepared for an local governments in driving the direction of city diplomacy
ever-changing world. Such analysis can also explore the amid global systemic disruptions.6 The world must maintain
drivers and scenarios behind the aforementioned pressing its focus on delivering the global development agendas and
global challenges, all of which have an increasingly urban local governments are key players at the forefront of that
dimension. effort. Local governments have not only embraced these
agendas, but they were actively involved in their negotiation.7
Recently, the future of cities agenda has assumed a greater
level of importance and urgency given the disruptive impacts
of COVID-19 and its implications for urban areas.3 In this Since 2020, armed conflict has
regard, governments, international agencies, the private also taken centre stage among
sector and scholars, among others, are critically examining pressing challenges that impede
what the future of cities portends in the aftermath of COVID- sustainable urban development
19.4 While the early days of the pandemic in 2020 created a
temporary crisis of confidence in the urban future as many The emerging “new normal” seeks to brings us closer to
of the world’s largest cities saw their populations shrink the solutions and behavioural changes that address the
and their residents disappear from public spaces, a broad structural problems of the past and set us on the path to
consensus is that urbanization remains a powerful twenty- a more sustainable future. For instance, the short-term
first century mega-trend. Indeed, there is now an emerging environmental gains that accompanied the lockdown during
sense of optimism that the crisis may provide us with the the peak of the pandemic in 2020 are an indication of the
opportunity to build back better, stronger, more inclusively, willingness of people to comply with government directives
greener and safer based on the impacts and lessons learned and alter their behaviour for the common good. Urban areas
from the pandemic. COVID-19 provides the opportunity to are best placed to foster the behavioural and lifestyle changes
look back, correct past mistakes and transform cities globally that are necessary to ensure the transition to resilient and
for future resilience, inclusion, green growth and economic sustainable urban futures. Cities remain central to the
sustainability.5 sustainable development trajectory as planned urbanization
provides the foundation, institutions and prosperity that are
In casting an eye on the future, we must also establish crucial crucial in the efforts to build back better, more inclusively,
links with the past. That imperative compels us to embrace greener, safer and smarter.
the overarching role of multilateralism, especially the
interrelationship between the various development agendas Most cities are not able to meet the triple objective of
being economically productive, socially inclusive and
environmentally sustainable.8 Consequently, transformation
The future of cities agenda in cities and communities along certain priority areas are
has assumed a greater level of required to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals
importance and urgency given the (SDGs). These priorities include ensuring access to a clean
disruptive impacts of COVID-19 and water supply, functional sanitation, and appropriate sewage
its implications for urban areas and waste disposal; providing sustainable and efficient
3
mobility; promoting more compact, safe and healthy From a demographic perspective, a glimpse into the future,
settlements; and enhancing resilience against climate points to a world that will continue to urbanize over the
change, extreme weather events and disease transmission.9 next three decades – from 56 per cent in 2021 to 68 per
All of these priorities resonate with measures taken to cent in 2050, with urban areas absorbing virtually all the
mitigate the impacts of COVID-19 and achieve more future growth of the world’s population (Figure 1.1).11
sustainable urban futures. Whatever urban-to-rural migration occurred temporarily
during the COVID-19 pandemic is not forecasted to alter the
The United Nations gave us a glimpse into the future in fundamental reality of a predominantly urban world. This
2014 when it collated 202 contributions from scientists in trend line implies that the level of urbanization will increase
response to the question “What do you think the world will by 12 percentage points over the next three decades, which
be like in 2050?” These responses were synthesized to 95 translates to an increase of 2.2 billion urban residents, with
ideas and the scientists were invited to vote on their ideas. most of these living in Africa and Asia. All regions of the
Table 1.1 shows the top 15 ideas that were voted as the world are expected to become more urbanized in the next
likely futures if the world continues in the business-as-usual 30 years, although highly urbanized and more developed
historical path of incremental improvements in reaction regions are expected to stabilize or experience a decline in
to perceived crises, instead of a shift towards a long-term the rate of urban growth. Unequivocally, this tells us that
perspective anticipating the troubles ahead.10 The standout cities are here to stay, and that the future of humanity is
ideas are accelerating climate change, inequality, poverty and undoubtedly urban, but not exclusively in large metropolitan
unsustainable consumption of natural resources. Many of areas (Chapter 2).
these issues are unfolding in urban areas (as indicated in the
shaded areas of Table. 1.1), which account for 56 per cent The increase in urbanization is intertwined with the
of the world’s population. In just six years, many of these existential challenges that the world has faced in the last
anticipated future outcomes have been accelerated by the 50 years.12 These challenges include long-term stresses like
impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. climate change and income inequality, as well as immediate
Table 1.1: Top 15 crowdsourced answers to the question “What do you think the world will be like in 2050?”
Idea Score
Global collapse of ocean fisheries before 2050 90
Accelerating climate change 89
There will be increasing inequity, tension and social strife 86
Global society will create a better life for most, but not all, primarily through continued economic growth 86
Persistent poverty and hunger amid riches 86
Humanity will avoid “collapse induced by nature” and has rather embarked on a path of “managed decline” 83
Two-thirds of world population will be under water stress 83
Urbanization will reach 70 per cent (+2.8 billion people in urban areas, -0.6 billion in rural areas) 83
The number of people going hungry will be reduced by 500 million people, still leaving 250 million with insufficient food 83
Continued lack of understanding of the complex non-linear dynamics of ecosystems 80
Food production peaks around 2040 at a level 60 per cent above today’s current levels, in terms of tonnes of food per year 75
Gross world product keeps growing until the second half of the twenty-first century, but at an ever-decreasing rate 75
Temperatures and sea levels will continue rising, as will the share of renewable energy use 75
Massive human interference with phosphorus and nitrogen cycles well beyond safe thresholds 75
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will increase by 70 per cent, from 48 to 83 GtCO2-equivalent. Most of the increase will be in Brazil, Russia, India, 75
China and South Africa (BRICS).
Source: UNDESA, 2014a.
4
Figure 1.1: Urban and rural population of the world (1950-2030)
8,000
7,000
6,000
Population (millions)
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Urban Rural
Source: UNDESA, 2019b.
shocks. The risk of zoonotic viruses came to the forefront with and the long-term consequences of that conflict remain to
the COVID-19 pandemic, which triggered the worst public be seen. Many countries have signalled their intention to
health crisis in a century and the worst economic recession stop importing Russian oil and gas, but it as yet unclear
since the Great Depression. The armed conflict in Ukraine if this geopolitical shift will accelerate the adoption of
that began in February 2022 has led to the most destructive renewable energy or shift consumption to other sources of
urban warfare since World War II. These challenges will leave fossil fuels. Regardless of recent events, Chapter 5 notes
their imprints on the future of cities in different ways. The that the transition to net zero is marked by lack of ambition
concentration of greenhouse gases as measured by carbon and policy pitfalls. The assessment of recent national
dioxide, driven mainly by human activities, especially the energy plans and projections shows that governments are
burning of fossil fuels, has been increasing since 1958 and in aggregate planning to produce around 110 per cent
currently stands at 413.64 ppm.13 The Intergovernmental more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report Climate Change limiting global warming to 1.5°C, and 45 per cent more
2021: The Physical Science Basis notes that global warming than would be consistent with limiting warming to 2°C, on
of between 1.5°C and 2°C will be exceeded during the a global level.16 By 2040, this excess is expected to grow
twenty-first century unless net carbon emissions decline by to 190 per cent and 89 per cent respectively. While many
45 per cent by 2030 based on 2010 levels.14 This report governments have pledged to lower their emissions and
was a call to action for sustained reduction in the use and even set net zero targets, they have not yet made plans
production of fossil fuel and massive investments in clean to wind down the production of the fossil fuels, which
energy projects and infrastructure to the tune of US$4 generate most emissions.17
trillion annually by 2030 to get the world on track for net
zero emissions by 2050.15
However, current plans by governments to produce fossil Current plans by governments to

fuels up to 2030 are incompatible with limiting global produce fossil fuels up to 2030 are
temperatures to 1.5°C. Global energy markets have been incompatible with limiting global
in flux since Russian military operations in Ukraine began temperatures to 1.5°C
5
the COVID-19 pandemic, many urban dwellers, especially

Growing inequality in the face of those in large cities, fled. More affluent residents retreated
increasing global income is an to second homes in the countryside. Middle-class families
indication that the gains in real moved to smaller towns that offered more affordable housing.
income have been beneficial to Low-income residents saw service sector jobs decimated and
the very wealthy in all countries left in search of economic opportunity. The cumulative effect
and to the rising middle class in was a net decline in major cities. For example, United States
developing countries Census data shows the largest net declines in population
from 2020 to 2021 were in Los Angeles County (179,757)
We have also witnessed continuous growth in the world and Manhattan (113,642).24 Although such net population
economy: doubling since 2000 to US$66.2 trillion in 2010 declines might be temporary, this reshuffle has implications
and increasing to US$84.7 trillion in 2020.18 At the same for the role secondary cities can play in the future as more
time, inequality, which has been increasing for more than workers in knowledge-based fields work remotely or adopt
70 per cent of the world’s population,19 is expected to rise hybrid modes of working.
further on account of the impacts of COVID-19. Growing
inequality in the face of increasing global income is an This territorial reorganization raises the question of what
indication that the gains in real income have been beneficial will happen with small- and medium-size cities as they
to the very wealthy in all countries and to the rising middle become increasingly important in the regional landscape?
class in developing countries.20 The bleak prospects for low- Will accelerated digitalization prompted by the COVID-19
skilled workers and young people in the labour markets of pandemic undo the economic advantages of large cities?25
low-income countries in the aftermath of COVID-19 point On the contrary, can economies of scale and agglomeration
to increasing levels of inequality and higher vulnerability to effects show their capacity to re-energize new urban
extreme poverty; as between 65 and 75 million more people activities in the aftermath of shocks and threats?
are estimated to fall into extreme poverty in 2021 compared
to pre-pandemic projections.21 High rates of inflation globally These concerns raise key questions about the future of cities,
as well as disputed food supply chains due to the conflict in especially the kind of cities needed to support humanity
Ukraine are putting further strains on the lowest rungs of in a predominantly urban world. How do we envisage and
the economic ladder. We cannot envision a bright future for reimagine the future of cities? What do we want our cities
cities when inequality appears to be on the rise globally and to look like? What are their different possible transitions and
extreme poverty looms in certain regions. Chapter 3 discusses trajectories? What are the possible scenarios for growth and
what needs to be done to prevent poverty and inequality from development? What are the most desirable outcomes and the
becoming permanent features of the future of cities. likelihood of achieving them?
Rapid urbanization and the globalized nature of cities

have added new layers of urban health risks as the world 1.2 Pandemic Lessons for the Future of
has increasingly witnessed the spread of zoonotic diseases Cities
such as avian influenza, severe acute respiratory syndrome
(SARS), Ebola and most recently, COVID-19. As cities seek The disruptive nature of the COVID-19 pandemic is a stark
to recover from the impacts of the pandemic, the UN-Habitat reminder that urban areas need to be prepared for dynamic
report Cities and Pandemics: Towards a More Just, Green and unpredictable futures. The pandemic clearly exposed
and Healthy Future makes a case for a new social contract in the soft underbelly of cities and their vulnerability to
the form of universal basic income, universal health coverage shocks. Cities across the world were totally unprepared for
and universal housing.22 This proposal is further discussed in the magnitude of the economic and social impacts of the
this chapter and in Chapter 3. pandemic. We live in an age of global threats and disruptions
that require concerted action, which can only be achieved
Demographic responses to COVID-19 indicate a new pattern in the spirit of solidarity and cooperation, as no single
of secondary cities as subregional hubs that connect the 62 government or multilateral agency can address such threats
per cent of the world’s population living in smaller cities, alone.26 The world must therefore be better prepared to
towns and rural areas with the 22 per cent that live in predict, prevent, detect, assess and effectively respond to
larger metropolitan regions.23 Following the outbreak of threats in a highly coordinated manner.27
6
Subway train passengers with protective

masks, Sofia, Bulgaria © Shutterstock
7
Box 1.1: Five lessons from the COVD-19 pandemic
Reflecting on the nature of and responses to the COVID-19 pandemic helps us filter some key lessons for the urban world, which
is likely to witness other epidemics and even pandemics in years to come. As such, cities must be prepared for a dynamic and
unpredictable future.
i. The pandemic crossed territorial boundaries despite border closures. Geographic exclusion and social privilege had limited
efficacy. Highly contagious disease teaches us that a threat anywhere is a threat everywhere. Effective response to a global threat
calls for multilateral collaboration that complements and reinforces national and local efforts in a spirit of solidarity, mutual
respect and cooperation.
ii. The pandemic reminded us that well-planned cities can better manage contagion when they provide density without residential
overcrowding, enhance accessibility, limit urban sprawl and provide room for public green spaces. Integrated urban planning
that promotes socio-spatial equity and green, well-provisioned neighbourhoods for people’s health and well-being is critical for
adaptation and resilience for the future.
iii. No one level of government and no single ministry, department or agency was able to address the pandemic on its own. The most
effective and efficient urban governance framework in the face of dynamic, unpredictable urban futures proved to be multilevel
governance with multi-stakeholder collaborations from the micro level (neighbourhood) to the meso level (sectoral) to the macro
level (regional to global).
iv. Effective responses defined the pandemic on a broader perspective beyond the health domain, recognizing the socioeconomic,
political and built environment factors that aggravated risks and vulnerabilities. Socio-spatial inequalities manifest in the
urban services divide, which presented nodes of weakness in curbing the spread of the virus. Bridging the gap and addressing
multidimensional urban poverty and inequalities in access to water, sanitation, basic health, adequate housing and digital tools
are crucial for building resilient urban futures.
v. The post-pandemic city is not the same as the future city. While emergency responses to the pandemic offered us a glimpse of a
radical shift in daily urban life, their social and environmental benefits were short-lived. Realizing the green, inclusive, sustainable
urban futures will require deliberate long-run transformative interventions closely attuned to the demands of local contexts and
backed by adequate resources.
The pandemic revealed and amplified long-standing system of resilience to respond to and withstand such a
weaknesses in the social structure of cities, resulting threat? To meet this challenge, urban futures must reduce
in disproportionate impacts on specific segments of the inequality and poverty; foster productive and inclusive
population, especially vulnerable and marginalized groups. urban economies that provide opportunities for all; and
Key lessons emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic are that adopt environmental policies and actions that mitigate and
urban areas must invest in preparedness, which requires adapt to climate change, promote clean energy and protect
developing the economic, social, environmental and ecosystems – all of which are facilitated by responsive
institutional resilience to respond to a wide range of shocks, planning and governance systems in which with finance,
including having contingency plans for the most vulnerable innovation and technology play overarching roles.
groups (Box 1.1).28
The unpreparedness of cities to address pandemics and
If the world were to experience another pandemic or major related shocks is an indication that the current process or
threat in the future, would urban areas be sufficiently model of urbanization is inadequate on several grounds.
prepared to respond based on the lessons learned from the In many contexts, the outcome of this process of
COVID-19 pandemic? Would cities have developed a robust urbanization is environmentally, socially and economically
8
unsustainable.29 Under such conditions, the process is, to the primary concern of the public health emergency and
some extent, dysfunctional and even erodes the inherent containing the virus to protect societies, as shown in Chapter
value of urbanization.30 Disease modellers are quick to note 7, the pandemic has compelled cities to reconsider how spaces
that COVID-19 will not be the last pandemic that cities will are planned and used, how services are delivered and how
face; new outbreaks of other pandemics and major health equitable development and economic growth can be resumed
emergencies will occur31; cities will experience recessions, to achieve more just, inclusive and equitable societies.
natural disasters, armed conflict and social unrest, among
other shocks. As has often been repeated over the last two The future of cities is one that should embody the
years: a threat anywhere is a threat everywhere and no one fundamental principles of human rights, greater equality,
is safe until everyone is safe.32 trust, compassion and solidarity. Building economic,
Our urbanizing world must be adequately equipped to governance and institutional structures, must be at the heart
respond effectively to a broader range of shocks and ensure of the future of cities. Economic resilience with new fiscal
the transition to a more equitable, inclusive, green, resilient sustainability frameworks, societal resilience with universal
and healthy future. If not, millions of city dwellers in different social protection schemes, climate resilience with greener
parts of the world will continue to live in a future that is investments and stronger multilevel collaboration to confront
unfolding without the necessary scaffolding against the many future shocks – these elements must be the main building
threats to humanity that eclipse their dream of a better urban blocks of a resilient future that can withstand and respond to
future. It is therefore in the interest of countries that urban the various threats and shocks that urban areas face.
futures embody a well-functioning system of cities alongside
institutions that can cope with future crises and prepare for a
societal reset. Such cities can help galvanize resources from 1.3 The Diversity of Urban Futures
multiple sources to invest in robust health infrastructure as
part of city resilience development programmes, including The future of cities is inextricably linked to the diversity or
urban development, management and governance.33 plurality of the urban context, which varies in terms of the
nature and scale of urbanization, demographic size, socio-
The pandemic has raised the profile of cities even further as spatial configuration of settlements, economic composition
being key to building more resilient and inclusive societies, and linkages to the global economy, degree of informality,
and central to countries’ recovery strategies.34 Beyond culture, local challenges, and local political and institutional
Table 1.2: Urban population and level of urbanization (2015–2050)

Region Urban population (million) Percentage urban
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
World 3 981 4 378 4 774 5 167 5 555 5 938 6 312 6 680 53.9 56.2 58.3 60.4 62.5 64.5 66.4 68.4
More developed 979 1 003 1 027 1 049 1 070 1 090 1 108 1 124 78.1 79.1 80.2 81.4 82.7 84 85.4 86.6
regions
Less developed 3 002 3 375 3 747 4 117 4 485 4 847 5 204 5 556 49 51.7 54.3 56.7 59 61.3 63.4 65.6
regions
Africa 491 587 698 824 966 1 125 1 299 1 489 41.2 43.5 45.9 48.4 50.9 53.6 56.2 58.9
Asia 2 119 2 361 2 589 2 802 2 998 3 176 3 335 3 479 48 51.1 54 56.7 59.2 61.6 63.9 66.2
Europe 547 556 565 572 580 587 593 599 73.9 74.9 76.1 77.5 79 80.6 82.2 83.7
Latin America and 505 539 571 600 626 649 669 685 79.9 81.2 82.4 83.6 84.7 85.8 86.9 87.8
the Caribbean
North America 290 304 319 334 349 362 375 386 81.6 82.6 83.6 84.7 85.8 86.9 88 89
Oceania 26 28 30 32 34 36 39 41 68.1 68.2 68.5 68.9 69.4 70.2 71.1 72.1
9
Table 1.3: Urban rate of change 2015–2050

Average Annual Rate of Change of the Urban Population (per cent) Entire Period
Region
2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2050 2015-2055
World 1.90 1.73 1.58 1.45 1.33 1.22 1.13 1.48
More developed regions 0.50 0.46 0.44 0.40 0.36 0.32 0.28 0.39
Less developed regions 2.34 2.09 1.88 1.71 1.56 1.42 1.31 2.09
Africa 3.58 3.44 3.32 3.19 3.04 2.89 2.71 3.17
Asia 2.16 1.84 1.58 1.35 1.15 0.98 0.84 1.41
Europe 0.35 0.30 0.28 0.26 0.25 0.22 0.17 0.26
Latin America and the Caribbean 1.30 1.15 1.00 0.85 0.72 0.59 0.47 0.87
North America 0.95 0.96 0.92 0.84 0.75 0.67 0.62 0.82
Oceania 1.42 1.30 1.24 1.18 1.15 1.12 1.07 0.89
systems.35 Every major region of the world has its unique regions of the world where 79 per cent of the population
features and development outcomes, which must be reflected reside in urban areas (Table 1.2). This trend will continue,
in polices for achieving better urban futures. Ideally, this albeit slowly, as 87 per cent population is expected to be
diversity implies that every city will have to design its future urban by 2050. While the level of urbanization in developed
journey to reflect the unique combination of opportunities countries is high, the rate of urban population growth is
and constraints that it faces.36 Urbanization will continue low, declining and even negative in some countries. Urban
to be a transformative, but uneven process that will require population is expected to grow at 0.46 per cent annually
differentiated responses. At the same time, there are areas between 2020 and 2025 and 0.40 per cent between 2030
of convergence across the urban context. Cities create and 2035 (Table 1.3).
wealth, enhance development, fulfil aspirations, harness
human progress and increasingly deploy new technologies Current and expected urban growth in the developed world
to address diverse challenges. The future of cities should will be driven partly by international migration, mainly from
reflect to varying degrees the challenges and opportunities developing countries, which accounts for about one-third of
that cities face. urban growth,38 and for 55 per cent of the global migration
stock.39 This trend will continue into the foreseeable
This section explores the diversity of urbanization in different future since the population in most developing countries is
contexts with a view to drawing out the implications for the expected to increase in the decades to come, thus placing
future of cities. The issues to be addressed in the future migration pressure on future generations.40 Increasing waves
of cities can be classified into two broad categories: those of international migration have meant that urban areas in all
that affect developed and developing countries. There are parts of the world are increasingly becoming multicultural,
overlaps within such simplified categorization, which is not which both enriches cities and brings new challenges.
intended to be exhaustive but rather illustrative of some
of the trends and challenges of the diversity of the urban While cities can generate a lower ecological footprint per
context in different settings to which the future of cities capita when they follow compact urban development
must address.37 patterns, the high rates of urbanization in developed regions
1.3.1 The state of urbanization in developed

regions
While the global urban transition witnessed over the last three The future of cities should
decades has been phenomenal, the level, pace and processes reflect to varying degrees the
driving urbanization are uneven across the world. The challenges and opportunities
process of urbanization is much advanced in the developed that cities face
10
do not always translate to environmentally sustainable urban A key issue to be addressed in cities of developed countries
form. Urban areas in developed regions, particularly the are manifestations of the various forms of exclusion and
US, have the largest ecological footprints in the world. High marginalization that migrants and other minority groups
levels of resource consumption, widespread dependence on face, many of which have been worsened by the impacts of
private automobiles, large-scale waste generation and low- COVID-19.45 Developed countries can address the systemic
density suburban sprawl eroding agricultural land are all key inequality in urban areas through a wide range of policies
environmental issues for the future of cities in developed aimed at creating more equitable cities as discussed in
regions. Urban densities in developed countries have been Chapter 3.
declining, thus aggravating the problem of urban sprawl.41
Findings from a global sample of cities with over 100,000 Climate change and environmental issues
inhabitants show that between 2000 and 2015, the physical Climate change remains a top priority in the global development
extent of urban areas in North America and Europe grew agenda. Developed and leading industrial countries will have
much faster than their population, thereby consuming more to play a key role in addressing the challenge of climate change
land for urban development.42 This trend has profound as only a handful of countries have strengthened their targets
implications for energy consumption, greenhouse gas to reduce emissions. In Europe, 70 per cent of cities are in
emissions, climate change and environmental degradation. low-lying areas less than ten metres above sea level. Except
for the Baltic coastline, a majority of European cities have
1.3.2 Urban priorities for the future of cities in experienced an increase in sea levels and this risk is projected
developed countries to increase along with global sea-level rise.46 North American
The urban conditions, trends and processes in developed cities are also at risk, especially those on the Gulf of Mexico
countries suggest certain key issues that should be addressed and Atlantic seaboard, with more than 90 cities experiencing
in the transition to more sustainable urban futures. These regular flooding, a number that is set to double by 2030.47
are highted below and discussed in greater detail in different The New Urban Agenda envisions future cities and human
chapters. settlements that build resilience and reduce their disaster risk
while simultaneously promoting clean energy and pursuing
Inequality and social exclusion sustainable consumption and production patterns in order to
Over the past four decades, rising inequality especially in protect ecosystems and preserve biodiversity.48
urban areas has been widespread in developed countries.
Consequently, social exclusion, urban segregation and Addressing cultural diversity
persistent pockets of destitution and poverty are increasingly Growing waves of international migration have meant
common features in cities of developed countries (Chapter that urban areas in developed countries are increasingly
3). Nonetheless, levels of inequality in developed countries transformed into heterogenous, multi-ethnic, multicultural
are generally lower than in developing countries, which and multilingual spaces. Among the most culturally diverse
indicates greater access to public goods and services and the cities are San Francisco, US; Sydney, Australia; New York;
existence of institutions that implement more egalitarian London, UK; Toronto, Canada; and Brussels, Belgium. In these
polices. While the levels of inequality across Western Europe cities, foreign-born residents account for 35–58 per cent of
have been widening since the 1980s, this region remains their population.49 Megacities in developed countries have
the most egalitarian in the world. Conversely, the US has the become microcosms of the world at large. For instance, the 4
highest income inequality among developed countries and is million workers in London speak more than 240 languages.50
currently experiencing its highest levels of inequality in the Migrant populations offer significant creative cultural
last 50 years.43 The most unequal US cities have become contributions and open new opportunities for shrinking
more unequal, as eight of the ten most unequal cities cities in Europe and North America, which have experienced
experienced an increase in their Gini coefficients between deindustrialization, ageing populations and low birth rates.51
2010 and 2018.44 Over the past 15 years immigrants have accounted for 47 per
cent of the increase in the workforce in the US and 70 per
cent in Europe.52
Over the past four decades, rising
inequality especially in urban Experience shows that managing diversity occurs at the
areas has been widespread in local level through everyday experiences and encounters.
developed countries The importance of neighbourhood context and relationships
11
Repair work in the city to replace water pipes in the city of Samara, Russia © Shutterstock
formed at the micro level are key ingredients for social infrastructure needs.54 Conversely, Germany, the UK, and the
harmony across racial, ethnic, religious and linguistic US face major gaps to meet their current urban infrastructure
backgrounds. In addition, public policies can help integrate spending commitments.55 The city of New York has more than
new arrivals like migrants, refugees and internally displaced 1,000 miles of water pipe over 100 years old and its ageing
persons into their host communities. Culturally-sensitive sewer system is a major contributing factor to flooding.56
design and social supports can strengthen a sense of London’s iconic public transport system, the Underground,
identity and belonging, thus transforming migration from a has passed its centennial anniversary and its managers have
potential societal strain into an asset that can lead to urban warned that they may enter a period of “managed decline” in
regeneration and revitalization. 2023 without national funding commitments.57
Ageing stock of urban infrastructure Shrinking cities

One of the most important needs for all urban futures in Nearly half of the cities in developed regions are shrinking.
developed countries is upgrading and modernization of their Most of the 52 cities globally that have experienced
ageing stock of physical infrastructure – bridges, power population decline since 2000 are in Europe and North
transmission and distribution systems, water and sewerage America (Figure 1.2). These cities were home to 59 million
pipelines, and sustainable transport infrastructure.53 The people in 2018, down from more than 62 million in 2000.
challenge of ageing infrastructure arises from growth Shrinking cities are the outcome of a decline in the regional
demands, rapid urbanization and development booms. economy or cities’ economic base with the population
Among developed countries only Australia and Japan have migrating elsewhere. In the US, more than 40 per cent of
invested sufficiently over the years to meet or exceed their cities with at least 10,000 residents have lost population
between 1980 and 2010.58 These cities are located mostly
in the deindustrialized region known as the Rust Belt, where
One of the most important needs population loss has led to high rates of unemployment, blight
for all urban futures in developed and violent crime. Unlike in some post-industrial regions of
countries is upgrading and Europe, shrinkage in US conurbations occurs largely in the
modernization of their ageing urban core, while suburban regions continue to grow.59
stock of physical infrastructure
12
Figure 1.2: Cities where the population declined between 2000 and 2018
Source: UNDESA, 2018a.
Urban shrinkage generates vast challenges such as how to planning for a growing older population, cities across the
sustain the cost of under-utilized infrastructure and address region are beginning to support active ageing by creating
the negative effects of urban blight that come with huge public spaces, transport and buildings that are accessible for
swathes of vacant housing units, as well as commercial and people with restricted mobility.
industrial facilities. Shrinking cities pose an urban governance
challenge of managing decline in a smart way to ensure that Economic restructuring
public services such as education or healthcare are still Over the last few decades, developed countries have witnessed
available to residents in the face of budget constraints.60 the process of industrial relocation as firms seeking to reduce
However, the low cost of land and abundance of existing labour and operating costs have relocated to developing
building stock also makes shrinking cities places of countries or to less developed areas within the developed
opportunity for enterprising and creative architects, artists, world.63 In many cities, jobs in heavy manufacturing and mining
designers and entrepreneurs. have disappeared entirely on account of deindustrialization,
economic restructuring and globalization. Secondary cities
Ageing population in developed countries have been particularly affected by
In addition to shrinking cities, developed countries have these changes because of their less diversified economies,
experienced population ageing. In Europe, the ratio of as they are often dependent on a single sector such as
the size of the working-age population (aged between traditional manufacturing or raw material-based industries.
20 and 64 years) relative to the total number of older These cities have faced challenges in adjusting to the decline
persons (aged 65 years or over) fell from 3.9 in 2001 in manufacturing as few have successfully revitalized and
to 2.9 by 2020; this ratio is predicted to decrease to 1.6 diversified their economies in order to retain capital, human
by 2080.61 Such demographic shifts can have significant resource and attract investment.64 In the absence of bold
implications for government revenue, pension funds, economic recovery programmes, the prognosis for this group
healthcare and social services. An ageing population can of cities appears pessimistic. As urban analysts note: “These
also lead to labour supply shortages and economic decline.62 problems threaten to persist into the future, as declining cities
It is therefore critical that these issues are factored into face outmigration and become increasingly disadvantaged and
decision-making and planning for the future of cities. In disconnected from their national system of cities”.65
13
1.3.3 The state of urbanization in developing authorities, weak governance structures, increasing levels
regions of poverty and inequality, proliferation of slums and other
In developing regions, 52 per cent of the population currently forms of vulnerability. These are some of the key issues that
reside in urban areas. This figure is expected to grow to 57 will dominate the future of cities in the region.
per cent in 2030 and to 66 per cent in 2050 (Table 1.1).
Developing countries have the fastest rate of urbanization, Asia and the Pacific has 51 per cent of its population living
with an annual urban growth rate averaging 2.1 per cent in urban areas and accounts for 54 per cent of the world’s
between 2020 and 2025. The implication of this trend urban population.70 By 2050, it is expected that about two-
is that future urban growth will take place mainly in the thirds of the region’s population will be living in urban
developing regions of Africa and Asia, where the planning areas. While Asia is one of the most rapidly urbanizing
systems and public institutions are least equipped to deal regions of the world, urban population growth has been
with the challenges of rapid urbanization. declining since the 1980s, from an annual average of 3.83
per cent to the present rate of 1.84 per cent (Table 1.2).
Urbanization in the developing regions demonstrates The process of urbanization in Asia is driven mainly by
considerable diversity. Latin America and the Caribbean, with rural-urban migration. Urbanization in the region, especially
81 per cent of its population living in urban areas, has four of South-East Asia, is strongly linked to economic transition
the world’s largest megacities: Mexico City, Mexico; São Paulo, and greater integration into the global economy, as many
Brazil; Buenos Aires, Argentina; and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. cities have become recipients of foreign direct investment,
These megacities alone account for 17 per cent of the region’s mainly in the form of the outsourcing of manufacturing by
urban population and attract most of the foreign investment.66 parent companies in developed countries.71 Despite the
While cities in the region have become more egalitarian in large number of megacities (18 if Japan is included and 16
the last two decades, income inequality remains relatively if excluded), 54 per cent of Asia’s urban population live in
high. Latin America and the Caribbean is the only region cities of less than 1 million people, while 16 per cent reside
where migration between urban areas is a significant driver in megacities. This fact is a clear indication that the agenda
of urban growth, accounting for nearly 50 per cent and due for the future of cities in the region should in part focus
to several factors, with the pursuit of livelihoods being the on the key issues relating to secondary cities, in addition to
most important.67 those of megacities.
Africa is the least urbanized, but most rapidly urbanizing, 1.3.4. Urban priorities for the future of cities in
region in the world. Currently, 44 per cent of the region’s developing countries
population resides in urban areas (Table 1.1). By 2035, the The diversity of the urban context in developing countries
region will have half of its population living in cities and will suggest certain key issues that should be addressed in the
be predominantly urban by 2050 with six in ten persons future of cities. These are briefly described below and
living in urban areas. Urban growth rates in Africa currently discussed in greater detail in different chapters.
stand at 3.4 per cent. While projected to decline in the years
ahead, urban growth in Africa will remain the highest of any Poverty and inequality
region. In many African countries, urbanization is occurring As cities in developing countries seek better urban futures,
at lower levels of income compared to other developing poverty remains a persistent challenge that must be
regions.68 This phenomenon has been referred to as the addressed (Chapter 3). It is estimated that one-third of all
weakening of the historical link between urbanization and urban residents are poor, which represents one-quarter of
prosperity.69 Urbanization is also taking place within the the world’s total poor with the majority residing in small
context of rising unemployment, financially weak municipal cities and towns in developing countries.72 Based on historic
trends, extreme poverty is projected to decline to 6 per cent
by 2030.73 However, COVID-19 has exacerbated poverty
future urban growth will take place levels, thereby leaving the poor further behind and increasing
mainly in the developing regions of the number of those newly living in poverty.74
Africa and Asia, where the planning
systems and public institutions One projection of the increase in poverty due to COVID-19
are least equipped to deal with the estimates that as much as 500 million people or 8 per cent of
challenges of rapid urbanization the world’s population fell into poverty.75 This decline marks
14
the first increase in global poverty of the last three decades. to safely managed water and only 23 per cent have access to
Countries in developing regions also have the highest levels sanitation. For Latin America and the Caribbean, 81 per cent
of inequality. Inequality disproportionately affects vulnerable of the region’s urban population has access to safely managed
groups like women and girls, older persons, indigenous water and 40 per cent have access to sanitation.78 These
people, persons with disabilities, migrants, refugees and averages mask huge intra-urban differences between well-off
people living in poverty, all of whom are excluded from full districts and poor neighbourhoods that lack the most basic
participation in economic, political and social life (Chapter of services, all of which contributes to the vulnerability of
3). As shown elsewhere, the outbreak of the COVID-19 already marginalized settlements. Investing in infrastructure
pandemic has exacerbated these inequalities.76 is therefore an absolute necessity for the future of cities in
developing countries.
Infrastructure, housing and the challenge of slums
Cities in developing countries face the challenge of providing
adequate infrastructure and basic services, without which a
Cities in developing countries face
better urban future can be difficult to attain. The provision
the challenge of providing adequate
of infrastructure and basic services in developing countries
infrastructure and basic services,
is still very poor. For the hundreds of millions of low-income
without which a better urban future
and poor households, improved water and sanitation remain
can be difficult to attain
a rarity; well-funded public education and quality healthcare
are unavailable; and access to safe and affordable transport
services, leisure and open space are minimal.77 The lowest Affordable and adequate housing remains an illusion for
levels of infrastructure provision are to be found in Africa, many in developing countries. The inaccessibility of this
where of the urban population, only 54 per cent have access basic human need is reflected in the growth of slums,79
People living in slum, Mumbai, India © Shutterstock
15
which forms part of the unfinished business of the urban housing, among others.82 These challenges could make it
agenda that needs to be addressed going forward especially difficult to achieve certain SDGs, especially those relating
in Africa and South Asia. Slums are one of the most enduring to poverty, hunger, health, water, sanitation and ecosystems.
faces of poverty, inequality, exclusion and deprivation. Slum The long-term effects of climate change could combine with
dwellers must contend with inadequate access to potable the short-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic to further
water, poor sanitation, overcrowding, poor-quality housing reverse global development gains.
in hazardous locations, insecure tenure, risk of eviction, food
insecurity, malnutrition, poor health, unemployment and Youth bulge
stigmatization, all of which make them highly vulnerable to Many developing countries are characterized by a significant
COVID-19 and other shocks.80 increase in the proportion of persons aged 15 to 24, which
is referred to as the youth bulge. There are 1.19 billion
While remarkable progress has been made in reducing the people within this age bracket worldwide with 88 per cent in
proportion of the world’s urban population living in slums developing countries in 2015.83 A high youth bulge presents
from 28 per cent in 2000 to 24 per cent in 2018, more the challenge of youth unemployment, which is two to three
than 1 billion people still live in such settlements with over times higher that adult unemployment. A youth bulge can
half of slum dwellers located in East, South-East, Central and represent a potential opportunity to spur social and economic
South Asia, and 23 per cent in Sub-Saharan Africa.81 The development if countries harness the power of age-structure
forces driving the prevalence of slums in developing regions transformation. The youth bulge can also increase the risk of
are unplanned urbanization; ineffective planning; lack of domestic conflict in an urban context of weak governance,
affordable housing options for low-income households; poor economic performance and high levels of inequalities.84
dysfunctional urban, land and housing policies; a dearth of A youthful population requires investment in educational,
housing finance; and poverty and low incomes. All these employment training, recreational and community facilities.
factors must be addressed decisively and with the political Countries will also need to integrate various aspects of
will that they deserve if cities are to meet their housing demographic change in their urban development policies,
needs going forward. particularly the youth bulge observed in many developing
countries.
Challenge of climate change
Rapidly urbanizing cities in developing countries are more Investing in secondary cities
vulnerable to climate change and least able to respond to its Secondary cities of less than 1 million inhabitants account
effects. They are hampered by limited financial, human and for 55 per cent of the urban population of the less developed
technical resources as well as weak institutions and governance regions of the world.85 Indeed, the fastest growing cities are
structures for disaster mitigation and preparedness. At the small and intermediate cities and towns. Despite their
the same time, these cities contribute very little to global demographic importance, planning and policy initiatives
warming, making their suffering disproportionate. Cities, in developing countries have focused mainly on large
especially those in warm climates or low-lying coastal areas, metropolitan areas, thereby further fuelling urban primacy.
face existential threats due to the risks and impacts of climate Residents of secondary cities endure multiple deprivations
change and extreme weather events such as increased and infrastructure deficiency on account of this metropolitan
heatwaves in Delhi, India, and the pervasive flooding in bias. The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated that
Jakarta, Indonesia, and Durban, South Africa. secondary cities are vulnerable to these external shocks
because of deficits in infrastructure and services.
In developing countries, the effects of climate change can
exacerbate existing urban challenges and make it more With adequate planning, management and governance,
difficult to tackle the persistent issues that cities already secondary cities will foster better urban-rural linkages and
face, such as poverty, inequality, infrastructure deficits and relieve some of the quality-of-life strain, such as rampant
informal settlements, environmental degradation and long
commutes, that can be endemic to megacities. As noted
Rapidly urbanizing cities in earlier, secondary cities served as subregional hubs in
developing countries are more supporting post-COVID-19 recovery efforts.86 If secondary
vulnerable to climate change and cities are to form part of the agenda for the future of cities
least able to respond to its effects in developing countries, governments must prioritize
16
investment in infrastructure and service delivery to address and concentrated urban poverty in some developed
these issues and close the widening urban services divide. country cities could potentially escalate to alarming levels
and marginalized groups such as minorities, indigenous
peoples and migrants could endure multiple deprivations
1.4 Possible Scenarios for Urban Futures for decades to come.
Though the future cannot be predicted with certainty, the In a worst-case scenario, especially if the global rise
current trends across the key themes covered in this report in inflation and cost of living does not abate, the
(urban poverty and inequality, urban economies, urban impact on urban economies would be disastrous
governance, urban and territorial planning, public health, (Chapter 4). For instance, cities in Africa could
innovation and technology and building resilience) have lose up to two-thirds of their financial resources,89
significant bearing on the future of cities. Based on the which will make it progressively difficult to meet the basic
analysis of available data and current trends provided in this needs of their population at a time when price hikes have
Report, the three scenarios of urban futures are possible sent the cost of food, energy and commodities soaring. The
(Figure 1.3). impact on urban economies will be most intensely felt in
cities that are already enduring multiple social, economic,
1.4.1 The high damage scenario political and environmental fragilities such as such as Juba,
This is the worst-case scenario that can occur with disastrous South Sudan; Sanaa, Yemen; and Aleppo, Syria, among
consequences for the future of cities. Under the “high others. If the impact of the pandemic and global challenges
damage” scenario, the impacts of the ongoing COVID-19 continues unabated, then already weak urban service
pandemic as well as global economic uncertainties, delivery and governance systems in some of these cities
environmental challenges, and wars and conflicts in different could collapse entirely (Chapter 8). A majority of those in
parts of the world could have long-term impacts on cities in developing regions are already trapped in a vicious cycle
both developed and developing countries. In this scenario, of poverty. It will be extremely difficult if not impossible
developing regions bear the brunt of this catastrophic to achieve SDG targets in the face of massive material
damage because of already existing vulnerabilities and deprivation, weak urban economies, high unemployment
structural fragilities as discussed in Chapters 1 and 3. especially among youth, a growing digital divide (Chapter
9), worsening vulnerability to public health crises (Chapter
Under the high damage scenario, if 80 per cent of the 7), perpetual violent conflict and any additional shocks or
economic damage inflicted by the COVID-19 pandemic stresses. The high damage scenario would create fertile
persists for a decade then the global poverty headcount could grounds for amplifying these vulnerabilities, making it
increase by 32 per cent or 213 million people by 2030.87 hard for urban leaders to manage multiple urban crises and
Even in 2050 the increase in the number of people living promote cities that work for all.
in poverty is projected to be over 200 million.88 The
repercussions of this scenario have significant gender A high damage scenario would also result in a massive reduction
dimensions: 90 million women and girls were pushed in official development assistance to poor countries, which
into poverty in 2020, a figure that is expected to reach means that less funding could therefore be available for state
105.3 million by 2030. These COVID-19 induced dynamics initiated urban development and infrastructure projects,
have lasting implications for the ability of countries to which in turn will negatively affect the implementation of
achieve the targets of SDG 1. Currently in most developing urban development programmes targeted at improving the
countries, the pandemic has weakened the fiscal capacity lives of ordinary citizens. Under the high damage scenario,
of cities and subnational governments to tackle poverty and urban futures will be characterized by high levels of poverty
other urban challenges. The sheer amount of homelessness and inequality, weak urban economic growth especially in
poorer regions and insufficient resilience to risks like climate
change and pandemics (Chapter 10). If global action against
in most developing countries, the multiple urban challenges fails and this bleak scenario
pandemic has weakened the fiscal becomes a reality, the credibility of the multilateral system
capacity of cities and subnational would be compromised, thereby undermining coordination
governments to tackle poverty and efforts to address urgent and pressing global issues.
other urban challenges
17
Figure 1.3: Possible Scenarios for Urban Futures
Key Themes Current Trends in Cities High Damage Scenario Pessimistic Scenario Optimistic Scenario
URBAN POVERTY Unimaginable reversal “Bad Old Deal”- Concerted efforts and
Urban poverty and inequality
& INEQUALITY of development gains, Characterized by transformative action
remain a major feature in cities
particularly in poorer exploitation and to achieve SDG targets
Urban economies vulnerable to regions resulting in perpetual exclusion and the New Urban
shocks and stresses-especially missing of SDG targets of informal sector Agenda
in developing country cities workers, systemic
URBAN Millions could be Reprioritization of
discrimination, and
ECONOMIES Fragmented and weak pushed into extreme the most vulnerable
exclusion of the
institutional frameworks to poverty-with women, urban poor in urban and disadvantaged
tackle multiple, complex, and children, migrants, development agendas urban populations
interrelated urban challenges refugees, indigenous in urban planning
peoples, and other Severely weakened and development,
CLIMATE CHANGE Continuing urban heath disadvantaged groups urban economies urban governance,
& CITIES inequities bearing the brunt of technology-based
this crisis Cities could be locked projects and climate
into cycles of poverty, action plans
Political upheavals poor productivity,
Urban planning and
and pandemics could unhealthy living Desirable outcomes
URBAN management remain poor
amplify poverty, conditions and that have long-term
PLANNING in most parts of the world,
food insecurity to potentially become expectations for
especially in developing
unmanageable levels inequality traps for cities to be equitable
regions
decades and inclusive,
Massive expansion of productive, green,
Rapid digitization of urban
slum-like conditions in ‘New’ forms of urban compact, walkable,
URBAN economies and adoption
poorer regions, which vulnerabilities in the and healthy, resilient
HEALTH of ICTs- creating digital
could expose millions future that would urban development as
inequalities
of people to the wrath disproportionately called for by the global
Climate crisis severely of public health crises affect already development agenda
affecting urban economies disadvantaged relevant to sustainable
The looming climate groups (e.g. migrants urbanization.
URBAN through infrastructure damage
emergency could and refugees, slum
GOVERNANCE and livelihoods disruptions-
trigger calamitous dwellers, the homeless,
especially in coastal cities and
damage which could women, children, and
in contexts where resilience
generate additional indigenous people)
to climate shocks is relatively
urban crises in
weak
INNOVATION & both developed and
TECHNOLOGY Poor households and developing country
communities, including those cities. Failure to build
living in slums are still severely climate resilience could
affected by multiple shocks be severely damaging
and risks that negatively affect to urban economies
BUILDING URBAN their resilience
RESILIENCE
Key Actions for A Better Urban Future

Collective and concerted multilateral interventions through tailored support to poor countries to build resilience of cities to multiple crises
Institutional and governance reforms to implement redistributive policies to address escalating urban poverty and inequalities
Prioritization of climate resilience and greening for resilient and sustainable urban futures- building resilience must be forward looking,
multisectoral and inclusive of all stakeholders, especially the poor and most vulnerable
Investment towards resilient urban economies and productive urban futures in both developed and developing regions
Capacity building for responsive and sustainable urban and territorial planning
Strong linkages between public health and urban interventions, especially in disadvantaged locales such as slums and informal
settlements
18
1.4.2 The pessimistic scenario 1.4.3 The optimistic scenario

This scenario is likely to materialize if cities The optimistic scenario provides a vision where concerted
and subnational governments return to the pre- policy action facilitated by the implementation of the New
pandemic business-as-usual approach, what one Urban Agenda as a framework for achieving the SDGs is
development practitioner calls the “Bad Old Deal.”90 amplified to make transformative progress in addressing
This system is characterized by exploitation and perpetual multiple challenges confronting cities in both developed and
exclusion of informal sector workers (Chapters 3 and 4), developing regions. This scenario involves collaborative, well-
systemic discrimination and exclusion of the urban poor coordinated and effective multilateral interventions to tackle
in urban agendas (Chapter 3), overreliance on fossil fuels multidimensional poverty and inequalities (SDG 1 and SDG
to support manufacturing industries (Chapter 5), poorly 10, see Chapter 3), promote vibrant resilient and diversified
planned and managed urbanization processes particularly in urban economies and productive urban futures (SDG 8 and
developing regions (Chapter 6), poor prioritization of public SDG11, see Chapters 4 and 10), build healthy and thriving
health interventions in urban development (Chapter 7), rapid cities (Chapter 7), strengthen the drive towards green urban
deployment of modern technologies without opportunities futures (Chapter 5), promote well-planned and managed
for the poor and thereby creating and entrenching digital urbanization processes (SDG 11, see Chapter 6) and ensure
inequalities (Chapter 9). Collectively, these challenges will inclusive digital economies for the future (Chapter 9).
undermine the global vision of achieving inclusive, resilient,
and sustainable cities where no one is left behind. In the optimistic scenario, national and local governments
invest in the Decade of Action to reset the urban
The pessimistic scenario could also have dire consequences in development path towards a just, resilient, healthy and
regions that already face multiple instabilities. For example, prosperous urban future. Under this scenario, the world
in Africa, more than 20 per cent of the urban population will will meet the SDG target of a poverty rate below 3 per
endure extreme poverty between 2016 and 2030 in countries cent at the global level in 2045. If countries embark on the
such as Madagascar, Chad, Central African Republic, South SDG Push proposed by the United Nations Development
Sudan and Democratic Republic of the Congo.91 Globally, 1.6 Programme to exceed pre-pandemic development
billion people or 20 per cent of the world’s population live trajectories, then there will be 125 million fewer people
in inadequate housing, of which 1 billion reside in slums and in poverty than in the pre-COVID baseline. By 2050,
informal settlements.92 Under these conditions, the goal of that figure grows to more than 260 million.94 Under the
eradicating poverty in all its forms by 2030 and leaving no optimistic scenario, national governments will embrace
one behind will not be achieved. Without concerted efforts, peace and diplomacy to resolve their differences rather
the pessimistic scenario could lead to new forms of urban than pursue military action, especially in instances that
vulnerabilities that would disproportionately affect already have global economic consequences like the conflict in
disadvantaged groups. Moreover, as the climate emergency Ukraine, thus alleviating pressure on global energy and
looms, the resilience of cities to shocks and stresses is being food markets. In the optimistic scenario, governments are
tested, especially those located in coastal regions. There are also successful at managing the COVID-19 pandemic to
already warning signs globally and further inaction on these balance health outcomes with economic activity and citizen
multiple crises could jeopardize the prospects for resilient, rights, thus smoothing out global supply chains.
thriving and sustainable urban futures. Finally, the revised
downward growth rates for 2022 and 2023, brought on by The optimistic scenario will not materialize automatically. It
supply chain stresses and the conflict in Ukraine, will continue requires commitment from leaders at the global, regional,
to cause economic hardship under the pessimistic scenario as national and local levels. Going forward, the drive towards
households struggle with higher prices for food, energy and an SDG push in cities must be accompanied by brave
basic goods while wages do not keep up with inflation.93 commitments to tackle structural inequalities and create
conditions that foster social, economic and spatial inclusion
to ensure that no one is left behind. If appropriate measures
are implemented, the response to the current urban crisis
As the climate emergency looms, can lead to a collective reprioritization of cities across the
the resilience of cities to shocks and world towards shared prosperity, inclusion, productive
stresses is being tested, especially employment, innovation, environmental sustainability,
those located in coastal regions gender-responsive systems and cohesive community building.
19
1.5 Visions of Urban Futures 11. Other global frameworks are also relevant to sustainable
urbanization: the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, the
The unprecedented global impacts and disruption triggered Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Addis
by the COVID-19 pandemic – much of which have played Ababa Action Agenda. While this framework was already in
out in urban areas – compel us to reimagine the future of place, the COVID-19 pandemic has added a sense of urgency
cities and reflect on the type of cities that are needed to and a demand for a change on the journey towards more
support humanity in a predominantly urban world. What do sustainable urban futures.
we want our cities to look like, especially in the aftermath
of the COVID-19 pandemic, and how can cities prepare for The call in the New Urban Agenda of “cities for all” is a
an uncertain future? The vision of the future of cities should people-centred urban development vision that protects
be guided by the norms of the New Urban Agenda and the the planet, is age- and gender-responsive, enhances the
2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, especially SDG realization of human rights and fundamental freedoms,
facilitates living together, ends all forms of discrimination
and violence, reduces social and economic inequalities, and
The vision of the future of cities empowers all individuals and communities, while enabling
should be guided by the norms their full and meaningful participation (Box 1.3). Indeed,
of the New Urban Agenda and the New Urban Agenda offers a global vision for people, the
the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable planet and long-term prosperity in which urbanization plays
Development, especially SDG 11 a vital role for positive change.
Vienna has a convenient transport system and facilities, Vienna, Austria © Shutterstock
20
Box 1.3: The Vision of “Cities for All”
The vision of cities for all envisages cities and human settlements that:
i. Fulfil their social function, including the social and ecological function of land, with a view to progressively achieving the
full realization of the right to adequate housing as a component of the right to an adequate standard of living, without
discrimination, universal access to safe and affordable drinking water and sanitation, as well as equal access for all to
public goods and quality services in areas such as food security and nutrition, health, education, infrastructure, mobility and
transportation, energy, air quality and livelihoods.
ii. Are participatory; promote civic engagement; engender a sense of belonging and ownership among all their inhabitants;
prioritize safe, inclusive, accessible, green and quality public spaces friendly for families; enhance social and intergenerational
interactions, cultural expressions and political participation, as appropriate; and foster social cohesion, inclusion and safety
in peaceful and pluralistic societies, where the needs of all inhabitants are met, recognizing the specific needs of those in
vulnerable situations.
iii. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls by ensuring women’s full and effective participation and equal rights
in all fields and in leadership at all levels of decision-making; by ensuring decent work and equal pay for equal work, or work
of equal value, for all women; and by preventing and eliminating all forms of discrimination, violence and harassment against
women and girls in private and public spaces.
iv. Meet the challenges and opportunities of present and future sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, leveraging
urbanization for structural transformation, high productivity, value-added activities and resource efficiency, harnessing local
economies, and taking note of the contribution of the informal economy while supporting a sustainable transition to the formal
economy.
v. Fulfil their territorial functions across administrative boundaries, and act as hubs and drivers for balanced, sustainable and
integrated urban and territorial development at all levels.
vi. Promote age- and gender-responsive planning and investment for sustainable, safe and accessible urban mobility for all,
and resource-efficient transport systems for passengers and freight, effectively linking people, places, goods, services and
economic opportunities.
vii. Adopt and implement disaster risk reduction and management, reduce vulnerability, build resilience and responsiveness to
natural and human-made hazards, and foster mitigation of and adaptation to climate change.
viii. Protect, conserve, restore and promote their ecosystems, water, natural habitats and biodiversity, minimize their environmental
impact, and change to sustainable consumption and production patterns.
Source: United Nations, 2017.
The New Urban Agenda seeks to foster an enabling centrality of subnational entities, particularly cities, in
environment that empowers cities to achieve core national and international systems for driving sustainability.97
developmental, environmental and other commitments.95
This approach is a notable departure from previous global The magnitude of the devastation of a global shock such as the
agendas as the importance of cross-scale governance rather current pandemic could not have been anticipated when the
than top-down implementation is clearly recognized.96 New Urban Agenda was adopted in 2016. The pandemic can
A significant precedent is the explicit recognition of the therefore be seen as a defining feature of our global landscape,
21
which has major implications for the future of cities and for to acknowledge the significant role of cities and local
implementation of the New Urban Agenda. The UN-Habitat governments; the importance of the provision of basic
report Cities and Pandemics: Towards a More Just, Green services and public goods; and the need to enlarge the fiscal
and Healthy Future identifies some shortfalls of the New space and capacity of cities and local governments through
Urban Agenda and its implementation regarding COVID-19.98 the devolution of public administration.
These oversights include insufficient comprehension of the
extent of poverty and inequality globally that has since been In Cities and Pandemics, UN-Habitat advocates for a new
exposed by the pandemic; the new vulnerabilities generated social contract in the form of universal basic income,
by an extreme health crisis that were not anticipated, which universal health coverage and universal housing and basic
necessitate a more explicit human rights-based approach services. This proposal can be seen as part of an emerging
grounded on the principles of social and economic justice; vision for sustainable urban futures, as cities seek to
and inadequate recognition of the importance of digital access build back differently and recover from the impacts of the
and infrastructure investments necessary for the creation of pandemic.100 The pandemic has crystallized the necessity
inclusive and sustainable urban economies. of a rights-based universal social protection framework
providing for the basics of health, housing and income for
an urban future that is susceptible to disruptions.101 This
New Urban Agenda along with its proposed new social contract articulates the “reciprocal
guiding principles, transformative obligations between individuals, households, communities
commitments and means of and leaders”102 on protection, provision and participation in
implementation remain pertinent society.103 At its core, the new social contract expresses the
to fostering resilient urban futures common agenda of a human society in which every person
has inherent dignity and rights. The provision of universal
Nonetheless, the New Urban Agenda along with its guiding social protection in times of crisis is a litmus test of the
principles, transformative commitments and means of strength of a social contract and a key pillar for safeguarding
implementation remain pertinent to fostering resilient urban social cohesion.104
futures. Indeed, many of the policies and blueprints being
proposed to address the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic The calls for a new social contract are not new. They were
in cities are embedded in the New Urban Agenda and other well established before the crisis when only one out of five
global frameworks relevant to sustainable urbanization. What persons believed that the current social system worked for
is then required is the effective implementation of these them.105 The pandemic provided a watershed moment stirring
development frameworks, backed by adequate resources.99 up heated social and political debates on the efficacy of the
current social trade-offs in the face of a more precarious
1.5.1 New social contract: an emerging vision for future. In the reality of a weakly supported social contract
the future of cities? under intense pressure from the pandemic, there was and
Following the disruptions wrought by the COVID-19 continues to be a real threat to social cohesion with questions
pandemic, an emerging vision of urban futures is that of a of state legitimacy growing louder.106 As argued by UCLG, the
more equitable and just city, one that is greener and more 2030 Agenda is a new social contract to co-create a sustainable
knowledge-based and is resilient across multiple dimensions future for the planet.107 In this regard, local governments are
to different types of shocks, crises and catastrophes. The key players and SDG 11 targets provide a starting point for
pandemic has forced a renewed reflection on the form local governments and partner institutions to launch the kind
and function of cities, connectivity, managed density and of initiatives that can deliver sustainable urban futures.
prevention of overcrowding. It has also caused the public
The case for universal basic income
Universal basic income (UBI) provides a pathway out of
an emerging vision of urban extreme poverty by creating a mechanism to support
futures is that of a more equitable economic opportunities and widen social inclusion for
and just city, one that is greener vulnerable groups.108 In UBI schemes, citizens receive regular,
and more knowledge-based guaranteed, broad-based, unconditional income support from
and is resilient across multiple the state.109 Public support for UBI grew from the onset of
dimensions the pandemic with the growing perception that precarious
22
economic futures will affect all one way or the other. The The stark reality is that access to healthcare is far from
pandemic has moved UBI into mainstream public policy as seen equitable; at least half of the world’s population still do not
by increased support across the political spectrum, including have full coverage of basic health services, and over 800
more economically conservative thinkers, that some form of million people spend at least 10 per cent of their household
targeted basic income is needed in the face of the economic budgets on health.118 UHC protects vulnerable groups from
hardship caused by widespread job losses.110 This idea has falling into poverty for present and even future generations.119
already been piloted at the local level, with cities creating Health care for all encompasses more than access to health
models that could be scaled up to the national level.111 The services. It entails preventive measures, including healthy
possibility of technologically-enabled administration of such urban design that reduces spatial inequality, improves air
systems also contributes to its growing support. 112 quality and manages urbanization in a fashion that protects
biodiversity and mitigates the spread of zoonotic diseases.120
There has been an exponential growth in social protection
programmes since the onset of COVID-19, with some form The case for universal housing
of universal income being a key component.113 By May 2021, The value of adequate housing was proven in its use as a
there were 3,333 planned or implemented social protection public health strategy for managing the pandemic.121 As the
measures in 222 countries and territories. That growth pandemic persisted, many low-income urban residents found
translates to a 32-fold increase since the start of lockdowns themselves confined in inadequate housing lacking adequate
in March 2020, when just 103 such schemes were recorded. basic services and with no income, risked eviction.122 At the
Of these measures, 42 per cent of the interventions were height of the pandemic, many countries initiated measures
cash transfers – both conditional and unconditional. There to protect access to housing including moratoriums on
are strong indications that the measures prevented millions evictions, rent subsidies and mortgage relief programmes.
from falling into poverty in Latin America.114 The US Measures were also taken to house the homeless. For
experience stands out as a strong case for the impact of a instance, in the UK, the Everyone In scheme established in
guaranteed income in addressing poverty and inequality. The March 2020 temporarily placed 15,000 individuals at risk of
2020 stimulus check payments kept 11.7 million people lacking shelter in hotel rooms.123 Reducing exposure to health
from falling into poverty. In fact, the national government risk by safeguarding access to housing helped the National
payments reduced poverty rates from 11.8 per cent in 2019 Health Service cope with demand by flattening the curve
to 9.1 per cent in 2020.115 This outcome has provided strong for acute cases.124 This outcome demonstrated the positive
evidence to challenge the common criticism of UBI as having link between access to housing and improved health. Beyond
a drag effect on economic prosperity. pandemics, access to appropriately designed, inclusive and
affordable housing is a useful lever for sustainably realizing
The case for universal health coverage the aspirations of urbanization.
Universal health coverage (UHC) means that all persons
have access to sufficient quality healthcare to restore and The emerging vision of urban futures must also reflect the new
improve their health when they need it, without undue normal, which entails new ways of living, working, studying,
financial strain.116 The goal of universal health coverage is recreating and socializing; a renewed focus on hygiene and
threefold: equity in access whereby everyone who needs public health; more public spaces; and different forms of
health services should get them, not only those who can social interactions. For instance, at the city level, this shift
pay for them; sufficient quality, which means that health in urban lifestyles manifests in the increasing importance of
services should be good enough to improve the health of the home as a part-time or even full-time workplace for some
those receiving services; and no undue financial risk, in that workers; social distancing, reprioritization and retrofitting
the cost of using health services should not be a deterrent to of public space (Chapter 6); and increased deployment of
access healthcare (Chapter 7).117 innovation and technology (Chapter 9) – all of which show
that there are radically different ways of living.125
The stark reality is that access to Visions of urban futures should be driven by the realities on
healthcare is far from equitable; at the ground, which means embracing the new opportunities
least half of the world’s population to tackle existing and emerging challenges. Positive visions
still do not have full coverage of of urban futures will not be realized by chance, but instead
basic health services facilitated by proactive measures, inclusive policies,
23
meticulous planning, fit for purpose institutions and public and 1.6 Pathways to Sustainable Urban
private sector collaboration. Achieving these visions involves Futures
prioritization of actions, selection of strategic interventions,
efficient monitoring systems and control of negative forces. Urbanization in the twenty-first century is not a singular
pathway, but rather encompasses divergent paths to
growth and many possible futures, including multiple
Realizing the urban visions that we want threats. Despite the range of possibilities, it is important
is predicated on addressing the inherent to consider desirable outcomes that make cities more
weaknesses of the current models of equitable, inclusive, productive, green, compact, walkable
urbanization and building back differently with and healthy as called for by the relevant components of
emphasis on inclusive policies the global development agenda. The interrelated and
mutually reinforcing pathways to sustainable urban
Realizing the urban visions that we want is predicated on futures will be determined by inclusive and transformative
addressing the inherent weaknesses of the current models policies to eradicate poverty and inequality; produce urban
of urbanization and building back differently with emphasis economies that provide opportunities for all; generate
on inclusive policies. How do we create economically greener investment and sustainable consumption and
productive cities without exacerbating inequality? How production patterns; set the framework for responsive
do we rethink models of city development that are largely urban and territorial planning; implement collaborative
driven by private, rather than public, interests? How can the and integrated systems of urban governance; prioritize
model of city development avoid generating multiple forms public health; deploy inclusive innovation and technology;
of deprivation, social exclusion and digital divides, which and build resilience, which enables cities to respond to
ultimately create spatial inequalities and divided cities? How and withstand a wide range of shocks (Figure 1.4). The
can the model of urbanization be part of the solution to effective implementation of the New Urban Agenda serves
climate change and environmental degradation rather than as an integrating framework for the various interrelated
the cause? The answers to these and many more questions components that constitute these pathways.
are key to achieving visions of sustainable urban futures.
Figure 1.4: Pathways to sustainable urban futures
Transformative policies to eradicate poverty and inequality
Productive and inclusive urban economies
Sustainable financing
Greener investments for sustainable consumption and production patterns
New Urban Agenda Responsive urban and territorial planning Sustainable

as an integrating
urban futures
framework
Prioritization of public health
Collaborative and integrated system of urban governance
Inclusive deployment of innovation and technology
Building resilience
24
1.6.1. Transformative policies to eradicate poverty

and inequality Greater economic diversity improves
We cannot envision a bright future for cities when inequality productivity by utilizing existing and
appears to be on the rise globally and poverty is endemic in potential resources as a basis for
certain regions (Chapter 3). Without concerted action at all building up resilience
levels, poverty and inequality might be the defining features
of the future of cities. Indeed, it has been noted that poverty opportunity for cities to adopt innovative ways of driving
and inequality could be greater in the post-pandemic era if their economies.
governments do not take decisive actions.126 Inequality in
urban areas is undermining the social value of urbanization. Policies should address how cities can diversify their economy
A more proactive approach is therefore required to deal to create jobs, enhance access to goods and services, and
with urban inequality and to take advantage of the economic reduce poverty and inequality. A lack of economic diversity
and social opportunities offered by urbanization.127 Social increases the vulnerability and scale of economic decline.130
protection programmes and redistributive polices are By contrast, greater economic diversity improves productivity
urgently needed and should be mainstreamed in domestic by utilizing existing and potential resources as a basis for
resource frameworks as it is a necessary investment in building up resilience against shocks.131
people, not a burden.128 Social protection programmes serve
to counter market forces by giving priority to vulnerable and Sustainable urban futures are contingent on viable sources
low-income households. of finance. It is important to address how urban futures
can be adequately financed in the face of dwindling local
government revenues, huge budget deficits and decreasing
Urban futures will only be equitable foreign investment, among other fiscal constraints. The
for all when the rights of vulnerable path to long-term sustainable financing in cities requires
groups are protected; gender diversification and mobilization from a wide range of
equality is promoted financial resources. Existing urban fiscal systems must be
overhauled to ensure locally viable tax revenues. In turn,
Urban futures will only be equitable for all when the rights cities must have access to the financial resources required
of vulnerable groups are protected; gender equality is to meet their needs since they are ideally placed to drive
promoted; there is broad-based civic participation; persons local redistribution programmes and provide social safety
are protected against discrimination based on sexual nets.132 Chapter 4 explores how urban economies can be
orientation and gender identity; and when marginalized strengthened and discusses the path to a resilient economic
groups like slum dwellers, the homeless, indigenous people, future for cities.
youth, and older persons are empowered. These issues are
explored in greater detail in Chapter 3, which also discusses 1.6.3 Green investments for sustainable
how cities can respond to the challenges of poverty and consumption and production patterns
inequality to ensure that no one is left behind, especially in Green investments offer an essential pathway for the
midst of the multiple crises. future of cities. Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic
show that a green economic recovery can yield significant
1.6.2 Productive and inclusive urban economies environmental benefits. Countries and cities can deliver
The urban economy is integral to the future of cities. greener urban futures by investing in cleaner and more
Given the contribution of the urban economy, the future resilient forms of renewable energy that will create
of many countries will be determined by the productivity lasting solutions, reduce the risks of future crises and
of its urban areas. Policies designed to ensure access to adequately mitigate the impacts of climate change. Cities
productive employment, nurture the talent and skills can transition to sustainable urban futures characterized
required to thrive in a modern urban economy, develop by net zero GHG emissions and much reduced impacts
endogenous resources, effectively manage urban growth on the environment. This transition to carbon neutrality
diseconomies, and identify the impediments that prevent must be accompanied by significant shifts to sustainable
cities from maximizing their productivity potential all have consumption and production patterns that contribute to
a key role to play in building resilient urban economies.129 the responsible use of resources (Chapter 5). Policies and
The crises precipitated by the pandemic should be an planning processes that integrate cities into the ecosystems
25
of subnational regions foster resilience and can contribute to ensure that everything urban dwellers need in their day-
to the transition toward a circular economy.133 to-day endeavours can be reached within 15 minutes by foot,
bicycle or public transit. This method of living can help cities
The pathway to sustainable urban futures requires delivering rebuild and restore their economy while protecting lives
environmental benefits in a manner that reaches every and cutting dangerous pollution.138 Fundamentally, such
segment of the population, especially the disadvantaged. The proposals require improvements in the quality and density
urban poor must be represented, and their needs prioritized, of public transport links between neighbourhoods and to
be it about the urban commons, atmospheric commons, poorly-connected neighbourhoods (urban “weak spots”),
public spaces or resource use. In urban areas, nature-based among other measures.139 Public transport remains integral
solutions have been associated with positive effects on to achieving cleaner and greener urban futures despite
both urban biodiversity and human health. Investments in perceptions, now waning, that it is a major gateway for the
ecosystem services and natural infrastructure are not only spread of diseases.140 This fundamental urban reality means
a cost effective and sustainable way to improve resilience that public transport systems should be made accessible,
to climate impacts, but also offer employment opportunities safe, affordable, efficient and reliable, as well as able to serve
like human-made infrastructure investments.134 A recent diverse demands (Chapter 6).
study shows that ecosystem restoration creates 3.7 times as
many jobs as oil and gas production per dollar.135 1.6.5 Prioritization of public health
Public health should be prioritized as a key component of
1.6.4 Responsive urban and territorial planning the urban development framework. The pandemic laid bare
The pandemic exposed the weaknesses of current urban the weakness of the health systems in many countries. Cities
planning in many contexts. This inadequacy is evident from in collaboration with national governments and relevant
the fragmented response at various levels of governance stakeholders, including the private sector, must invest in
and across jurisdictional boundaries. Weaknesses of urban health infrastructure as an integral part of city resilience
planning systems in effectively addressing such crises also development programmes. Chapter 7 addresses how cities in
reflect failings in governance structures, which underscores both developed and developing countries can prioritize public
the need for urban planning to continuously adjust to the health given its importance to sustainable urban futures.
new realities and forces refashioning the global context so
that we do not continue along dysfunctional trajectories.136
Public health should be prioritized
The pathway to better urban futures calls for planning as a key component of the urban
paradigms that are responsive to changes in urban realities – development framework
these can play a vital role in addressing multiple and evolving
challenges. This kind of urban and territorial planning will Health and health disparities must be addressed within a
improve preparedness and empower cities to adequately broader societal context, including the quality of the built
respond to all hazards, including public health threats and environment, which plays a key role in health outcomes.141
future systemic shocks. Given that cities are places where health disparities vary
across social groups and neighbourhoods, appropriate
As a pathway to sustainable urban futures, urban planning urban healthcare must be provided for vulnerable groups –
can create sustainable neighbourhoods drawing on lessons children, women, the poor, ethnic minorities, migrants, the
from the COVID-19 pandemic. There is renewed focus on elderly, the homeless and other excluded groups who tend to
compact, mixed-use neighbourhoods and the use of non- be disproportionately affected.
motorized transport such as cycling and walking. During this
period the “15-minute city” emerged as an important concept Allocation of adequate resources should be made to facilitate
in making cities more sustainable.137 The 15-minute city aims the development of twenty-first century health systems,
including preparedness and responses that can match and
support the demand for future urban healthcare. Rapid
This transition to carbon neutrality urbanization means that an increasing number of people
must be accompanied by significant are exposed to risk factors emanating from the social and
shifts to sustainable consumption physical environment, which contributes to increased stress
and production patterns and worse mental health outcomes.142
26
Public Health Technical Officers collecting samples for COVID-19 tests at Nawong Temple Market, Donmuang, Thailand © Shutterstock
1.6.6 Collaborative and integrated systems of The governance structures required for a resilient urban
urban governance future must be fit for purpose to address twenty-first century
Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrate the urban challenges. COVID-19 has reinforced an important
inherent weakness of urban governance frameworks in lesson: no single city, irrespective of its resources, can address
addressing complex global emergencies. The fragmented the pandemic alone. Rather, cities working with smaller units
response at various levels calls for strong, effective and and higher levels of government were able to respond better
inclusive institutions as well as a more integrated, cooperative to the pandemic. Effective localization of the global agendas
multilevel governance approach. Multilevel governance and the realization of the economic, social, environmental,
arrangements are instrumental for creating synergies, health, infrastructural and institutional imperatives underlying
reducing overlapping and critical gaps between institutions, sustainable urban futures hinges on multilevel governance
and promoting trust and accountability that enhance policy arrangements. The localization and implementation of the
coherence.143 Multilevel urban governance strategies have global agendas with local governments being in the driving
been lauded as an effective mechanism by which cities can seat is central to achieving sustainable urban futures.
respond to a wide range of shocks in several contexts.144
Chapter 8 discusses how urban governance and institutional
structures can drive sustainable urban futures and analyzes Multilevel urban governance strategies have
some of the governance mechanisms that have been adopted been lauded as an effective mechanism by
at various scales. which cities can respond to a wide range of
shocks in several contexts
27
1.6.7 Inclusive deployment of innovation and

technology building resilience is a
The future of cities will be knowledge-based, driven largely multisectoral, multidimensional
by innovation and the widespread use of new technologies and multi-stakeholder effort, which
and digitization of virtually all facets of urban living. The value requires effective collaboration
of innovation and technology lie in the transition to more and cooperation across all scales
sustainable urban futures – more productive, prosperous and
resilient urban economies; enhanced social inclusion and
equitable policymaking; and environmentally resilient urban 1.6.8 Building resilience
development. A central premise of this Report is that building economic,
In serving as a pathway to sustainable urban futures, it is governance and institutional structures, must be at the
important that the deployment of innovation and technology is heart of the future of cities. The discussion in the preceding
linked to the uniqueness of local urban conditions and trends, sections feed into the notion of resilience. For instance,
including resource availability. What kind of technology can measures designed to diversify urban economies to enhance
be deployed in different urban contexts in view of the large economic resilience should be aligned with the long-term
disparities that exist in the availability and usage of technology objectives of achieving net zero GHG emissions. As a
solutions? Developments in science and technology will have a pathway to sustainable urban futures, building resilience
major impact on society, but there are uncertainties in the city is a multisectoral, multidimensional and multi-stakeholder
dimension of these developments (Chapter 9). effort, which requires effective collaboration and cooperation
across all scales, as the various dimensions of resilience are
While the deployment of innovation and technology has interrelated and mutually reinforcing. In practice, well-
responded to urban challenges in various contexts, it has designed resilience policies can cover these dimensions
exposed a deepening digital divide and social inequalities. simultaneously.148
Since “the future of technology is the future of cities,”145
it is imperative to address digital exclusion to ensure that The notion of resilience should go beyond one that seems to
the digital revolution in cities is inclusive and leaves no one favour simply enduring the status quo without attempting to
behind. Some cities are already making strategic investments change the underlying conditions that created such adverse
to ensure that minority groups are not digitally excluded. In situation in the first place. The idea of challenging resilience
2020, the Toronto District School Board distributed 60,000 is to go beyond building back better to building differently
devices to its students during the transition to remote learning in a manner that does not preserve the existing situation,
to ensure that no child is left behind in the learning process.146 but rather effects a real change that confronts structural
inequalities in an uneven society. Chapter 10 identifies the
necessary supportive structure and capacity required to
build resilient urban futures in different contexts, including
The future of cities will be
the specific roles of the different levels of government and
knowledge-based, driven largely by
relevant stakeholders.
innovation and the widespread use
of new technologies and digitization
of virtually all facets of urban living
The idea of challenging
Putting people at the centre calls for concerted efforts by resilience is to go beyond
cities to close the digital divide within cities and across building back better to
the urban-rural continuum, as well as within various instead building differently
population groups; empower people by building their in a manner that does
digital skills; support job creation in the digital sector; use not preserve the existing
digital platforms to deliver services equitably; protect the situation
most vulnerable online; mobilize new financing models to
reach the unconnected; and invest in affordable technology
solutions.147
28
1.7 Concluding Remarks our urbanizing world. This Report does not seek to predict
the future; rather, it assesses the possibility of alternative
World Cities Report 2022: Envisaging the Future of Cities futures. Although the future cannot be known with absolute
seeks to provide greater clarity and insights into the future of certainty, a wide range of futures is possible. Exploratory
cities based on existing trends, challenges and opportunities, predictive analysis can provide insights into the future to
as well as disruptive conditions, including the valuable ensure rational thinking that can manage uncertainty.
experience and lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic, and
suggest ways that cities can be better prepared to address The Report conceptualizes the possible futures for cities in
a wide range of shocks and transition to sustainable urban terms of desirable outcomes in which people experience
futures. The Report proposes a state of informed preparedness a good quality of life, the global and local commons are
that provides us with the opportunity to anticipate change, respected, rights are guaranteed, collective interests are
correct the course of action and become more knowledgeable protected, and a world of equality with differences is tolerated.
of the different scenarios or possibilities that the future of At the same time, the Report explores negative scenarios that
cities offers. The future certainly matters. As the Organization limit the transition to sustainable urban futures. The Report
for Economic Cooperation and Development argues: “It discusses the necessary conditions for the manifestation
illuminates the ways that policy, strategies and actions can of brighter urban futures while understanding that urban
promote desirable futures and help prevent those that we futures and the paths toward them are neither linear nor
consider undesirable.”149 independent, but instead are merged and interwoven into
multiple realities, all of which are necessary to understand
This Report builds on two major reports recently published and ensure a better future for all.
by UN-Habitat: World Cities Report 2020: The Value of
Sustainable Urbanization and Cities and Pandemics: Towards a
More Just, Green and Healthy Future. The former convincingly
affirms that well-planned, managed, and financed cities and
towns create value that can be harnessed for sustainable
urban futures and make cities and human settlements more
resilient in the face of profound shocks and risky events. The
latter provides the basis for much-needed local level action
on spatial planning, poverty and inequality, the economy
and governance in addressing the impacts of the COVID-19
pandemic as cities seek to build back differently.
This Report seeks to imagine a future of cities that connects

to the structural problems and conditions that predate
the pandemic. These are hard realities – including the
destructive effects of climate change, inequality, poverty
and various forms of marginalization and exclusion – and
if not adequately addressed, they will continue to shape
29
Endnotes
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2021a; Deloitte, 2021; OECD, 2020a. 44. Bach, 2020. 84. Urdal, 2004. 123. Bradshaw et al, 2021.
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29. UN-Habitat, 2016a. 69. Mahendra et al, 2021. 107. UCLG, 2019. 2020a.
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31. Zakaria, 2020. 71. UN-Habitat, 2020a. 109. Francese and Prady, 2018. 146. CBC, 2020.
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34. Acuto et al, 2020. 75. Sumner et al, 2020. 113. Gentilini et al, 2020.
35. UN-Habitat, 2009a. 76. UN-Habitat, 2020a. 114. Lustig et al, 2020.
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38. UN-Habitat, 2008. 79. UN-Habitat, 2020a. 117. United Nations, 2020b.
39. IOM, 2019. 80. UN-Habitat, 2020a. 118. United Nations, 2020b.
30
Chapter 2:
Scenarios of Urban Futures:
Degree of Urbanization
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Scenarios of Urban Futures: Degree of Urbanization
Quick facts
1. Global city population share doubled from 25 per cent in 1950 to about 50 per cent in 2020;
it is projected to slowly increase to 58 per cent over the next 50 years.
2. Between 2020 and 2070, the number of cities in low-income countries will increase by 76 per
cent, in high-income and lower-middle-income countries by about 20 per cent, and in upper-
middle-income countries by 6 per cent.
3. Over the next five decades, growth in city land area will mostly take place in low-income
(141 per cent), lower-middle-income (44 per cent) and high-income countries (34 per cent).
Changes in upper-middle-income countries are projected to be relatively small (13 per cent).
4. Small cities cover almost half of city land (about 45 per cent) in low-income countries, a
trend that will persist over the coming decades.
Policy points
1. City densities in low-income countries need to be planned for and managed in ways that
future growth does not exert pressure on existing open land, infrastructure and services, and
result in crowding on the one hand or lead to unsustainable sprawl on the other.
2. Enhanced planning capacities for small cities and emerging newer cities will strengthen the
important role they play across the urban-rural continuum in achieving sustainable futures.
3. Planning for age-friendly cities and towns that afford good quality of life for all inhabitants
across all generations is critical for sustainable futures.
4. Effective urban and territorial planning is critical to mitigate the negative social, economic
and environmental associated with future urban growth.
5. Effective urban and territorial planning is critical to mitigate the negative social, economic
and environmental associated with future urban growth.
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One of the fundamental challenges linked to monitoring global 2.1. The Degree of Urbanization and Why it
urbanization trends and progress on the global development is Important?
agendas has been the lack of a unified definition as to what
constitutes “urban” and its precise measurement that can Despite varying national definitions, the harmonized
facilitate international comparability. This has largely been definition proposed by the Degree of Urbanization
attributed to the differing criteria employed by countries methodology has revealed that there is in fact a broad
in defining “urban” and “rural” areas—a reflection of their consensus across countries on what constitutes a large
various perspectives as to what constitutes these types of city and where the most rural areas are. However, there is
human settlements. Understanding future scenarios of urban a wide variation in how “towns” are defined, a discrepancy
trends calls for a more precise measurement that allows for with profound implications for demographic analysis of
meaningful comparison across countries, while remaining global urbanization trends. In general, national definitions
relevant to national conceptions of urban and rural areas. in Europe and the Americas tend to classify towns as
urban, while in Africa and Asia they tend to classify them
It is in this light that this chapter uses a new, harmonized and as rural. For example, in Brazil, France, Mexico and the
global definition of urbanization that facilitates international United States, towns tend to be classified as urban, while
comparability to present scenarios of urban trends in various in Egypt, India, Uganda and Viet Nam towns are often
regions of the world. These scenarios allow us to understand classified as rural. In some cases, this happens because the
the anticipated demographic and spatial changes across the country uses a high minimum population threshold for a
urban-rural continuum in various regions as well as their settlement to be considered urban. In other cases, especially
drivers. This definition, known as the Degree of Urbanization, where the minimum population threshold is already met,
was endorsed by the United Nations Statistical Commission a range of other indicators or criteria applied by a country
in 2020. It was developed by six international organizations1 (in combination with the minimum population threshold)
to facilitate international comparisons and complement excludes such settlements from being officially recognized
national definitions. The monitoring of both the New Urban as urban. This distinction leads to only a small share of towns
Agenda and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in being classified as urban.
particular stands to benefit from this harmonized definition.
A detailed manual of how to apply this new definition was
published in 2021.2 There is a wide variation in how “towns”
are defined, a discrepancy with profound
Chapter 1 describes urban trends based mainly on data from implications for demographic analysis of global
the United Nations World Urbanization Prospects (WUP). urbanization trends
This chapter, on the other hand, complements the analysis
in the preceding chapter by providing a different, but equally It is worth noting that most national definitions with a
important, perspective on future trends using Degree of minimum population size threshold for an urban area use
Urbanization and data emanating from this new harmonized a relatively low threshold. Out of the 100 countries for
approach. which the World Urbanization Prospects lists a minimum
population threshold, 84 use a threshold of 5,000 or smaller.
The chapter begins with a short introduction to the Degree The Degree of Urbanization follows this approach and
of Urbanization. It then shows how urbanization has and defines all settlements with at least 5,000 inhabitants as
will change from 1950 to 2070 using a new global definition urban. However, it recommends splitting these urban areas
of cities, towns and rural areas. The chapter presents the into cities of at least 50,000 inhabitants, on the one hand,
drivers of urbanization in the different regions of the world, and towns and semi-dense areas, on the other hand. This
highlighting how the spatial expansion of cities and the captures the urban-rural continuum more accurately, as a
emergence of new cities have contributed to city population growing number of national definitions do as well. It also
growth. It reveals how cities attract young adults, but means that the cities and the rural areas as defined by the
children and elderly are more likely to live outside cities. Degree of Urbanization are generally classified as urban and
The chapter explores how the number and size of cities have rural, respectively, by their national definitions and that the
been changing and the future challenges of city growth. areas that are not treated consistently by national definitions
Finally, the chapter interrogates how dense our cities should are confined to the intermediate classes: “towns and semi-
be while advancing options that enhance sustainability. dense areas.”
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classified as urban. Applying this definition to an estimated

To better understand urban futures global human settlements population grid (GHS-POP)4 for
and their demographic drivers, 2015 shows that in most regions the population share in
it is important move beyond the cities as defined by the Degree of Urbanization is similar or
classical rural-urban dichotomy and smaller than the urban population share based on national
consider entire urban continuum definitions (Figure 2.1).
The Degree of Urbanization also has a second-level The rural population share as defined by the Degree of
classification that splits towns from semi-dense areas and Urbanization is also typically similar or smaller than the
creates three classes in rural areas: villages, dispersed rural national defined rural population share. In high-income
and mostly uninhabited (Box 2.1). To better understand urban countries, however, the nationally-defined rural population
futures and their demographic drivers, it is important move share is smaller than the one as defined by the Degree of
beyond the classical rural-urban dichotomy and consider Urbanization approach. This is because several of the high-
entire urban continuum.3 This reconceptualization is critical income countries use a minimum population threshold
and aligns with the vision of the New Urban Agenda and below 5,000 inhabitants. For example, the US uses 2,500,
SDG 11 of fostering equitable regional development across Canada and New Zealand use 1,000 and Denmark and
all sizes and scales of human settlements while supporting Sweden use 200.
positive economic, social and environmental interlinkages
in these territories. Sustainable urban futures cannot These results highlight the broad agreement on the two
be realized using the traditional dichotomized or binary categories of human settlement at the extremes as well as
treatment of human settlements. the disagreement with regard to the middle of the urban-
rural continuum. Given the global population concentration
The discrepancy in how towns and other areas in the middle in Asia and Africa, the global population share in nationally-
of the urban-rural continuum are classified by national defined urban areas (54 per cent) has a closer resemblance
definitions has a statistically significant impact on the to the share of population in cities (48 per cent) than the
global level of urbanization. For example, the world would aggregate of cities plus towns and semi-dense areas (78 per
be substantially “more urban” if all such settlements were cent) as defined by the Degree of Urbanization.
Figure 2.1: Population by Degree of Urbanization and in nationally defined urban areas by SDG regions and income group, 2015
100%
90%
80%
70%
Share of population
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Low income
Lower-middle
income
Upper-middle
income
High Income
Oceania
Central and
Southern Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Eastern and South-

Eastern Asia
Northern Africa and
Europe
Australia and New

Zealand
World
Western Asia
Latin America and

the Caribbean
Northern America
Cities Towns and semi-dense area Rural Urban (national definition)
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Box 2.1: Levels and classes in the Degree of Urbanization methodology
The Degree of Urbanization methodology offers more nuance than the “urban” and “rural” binary that categorizes the demographic
classification of human settlements common in many national statistical offices. Instead of those two categories, the Degree of
Urbanization approach proposes two levels of understanding with distinct classes of human settlement by analysing grid cells of one
square kilometre (1 sq. km).
Level 1 consists of three classes:
1. Cities: settlements of at least 50,000 inhabitants in a high-density cluster of grid cells (greater than 1,500 inhabitants per sq. km)
2. Towns and semi-dense areas: an urban cluster with at least 5,000 inhabitants in contiguous moderate-density grid cells (at least
300 inhabitants per sq. km) outside cities
3. Rural areas: grid cells with a density of less than 300 inhabitants per sq. km or higher density cells that do not belong to a city,
town or semi-dense area
Urban areas are defined as “cities” plus “towns and semi-dense areas.” It is recommended, however, to keep all three classes
separate given their different nature.
Level 2 uses six classes:
1. Cities: same as above
2. Towns: settlements with between 5,000 and 50,000 that are either dense (with a density of at least 1,500 inhabitants per sq. km)
or semi-dense (a density at least 300 inhabitants per sq. km).
3. Suburban or peri-urban areas: cells belonging to urban clusters but not part of a town
4. Villages: settlements with a population between 500 and 5,000 inhabitants and a density of at least 300 inhabitants per sq. km.
5. Dispersed rural areas: rural grid cells with a density between 50 and 300 inhabitants per sq. km.
6. Very dispersed rural areas or mostly uninhabited areas: rural grid cells with a density between 0 and 50 inhabitants per sq. km.
The World Urbanization Prospects also lists cities with at least provided by the World Urbanization Prospects, this data
300,000 inhabitants. Comparing these designations with the set produces boundaries with a high spatial resolution. The
cities identified by the Degree of Urbanization shows a very cities are defined using a grid of one square kilometre (1 sq.
high overlap.5 This confirms that national definitions and the km) cells. This means that city population densities can be
Degree of Urbanization agree on what constitutes a large city. calculated and compared in a meaningful way.
However, compared to the data in the World Urbanization
Prospects, the data used here has several advantages (Box
2.2). The concept of “city” and its definition here have been The cities are defined using a grid of one square
harmonized whereas the World Urbanization Prospects kilometre (1 sq. km) cells. This means that city
employs a mixture of city proper, urban agglomeration and population densities can be calculated and
metropolitan areas. Second, instead of the point locations compared in a meaningful way
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Box 2.2: Advantages of the Degree of Urbanization methodology: A summary
The Degree of Urbanization methodology:
• captures the urban-rural continuum through three different classes at level 1 and through six different classes at level 2 of the
methodology’s classification system (Box 2.1: Levels and classes in the Degree of Urbanization methodology);
• uses the same population size and density thresholds across the world;
• starts from a population grid to reduce the bias of using spatial units with different shapes and sizes;
• measures population clusters directly instead of indirectly by using building clusters as an approximation of population clusters;
• defines areas independently from their access to services to ensure that this access can be monitored reliably, in other words,
without interference from the definition;
• proposes a relatively cost-effective approach that can be applied to existing data collections.
Source: European Union et al, 2021.
Aerial view of Barcelona, Spain © Shutterstock
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Figure 2.2: City population growth through expansion, annexation and new cities in Hanoi, Viet Nam and Debrecen, Hungary
Source: Adapted from UNDESA, 2001.
As a city expands, it incorporates the population of the According to different scenarios, in particular regarding the
surrounding rural and semi-dense areas and can annex decline of fertility rates in developing countries, the peak for
nearby towns (Figure 2.2a). When a town grows, it can pass global population growth could be reached between 2070 and
the minimum population threshold and become a new city the end of the 21st century.8 Apart from differences in timing,
(Figure 2.2b). In both cases, the total population has grown, the completion of demographic transition in developing
but the initial population of the rural and semi-dense areas countries is expected to parallel urban transitions and lead to
as well as the towns are merely reclassified. This population a convergence of urban population growth rates towards the
was already there before the city expanded or became a new low level already reached by highly urbanized countries.9
city. Measuring the impact of reclassification separately is a
longstanding United Nations recommendation.6 Previously, Within this general theoretical framework, the trends of
this task has been difficult to achieve due to the lack of a urbanization in developing countries and emerging economies
harmonized definition and boundaries with a high spatial exhibit unique features with respect to what happened
resolution. This chapter, however, looks at the impact of during industrialization in the 19th century. While increases
reclassification in subsequent sections. in the share of urban population are only slightly higher by
historical standards, developing countries are characterized
Generally, the high growth rates of urban population in the by an unprecedented growth of urban population in absolute
World Urbanization Prospects have dominated the debates terms mostly due to their high national population growth.10
on urbanization in recent decades. However, the differences
between the national definitions and the unclear impact of the In terms of economic development, the previous two
reclassification of areas have led to an overestimation of urban editions of the World Cities Report have highlighted
growth rates, an emphasis on challenges for megacities relative the positive link between urban areas and economic
to small- and medium-sized cities, and an underestimation of development. The World Cities Report 2016 showcased
the relevance of urban natural increase versus rural-to-urban urbanization as a transformative trend, with urban areas
migration as a source of city population growth.7 described as “a positive and potent force for addressing
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sustainable economic growth, development and prosperity, future of cities. In relation to climate change, for instance,
and for driving innovation, consumption and investment the IPCC points out that the resulting sea-level rise—which is
in both developed and developing countries.”11 The World expected to significantly increase by the end of this century—
Cities Report 2020 reinforced this message by stating that poses risks to high-density coastal urban developments in both
urban areas generate enormous economic value, although developing and developed countries.14
the economic value generated varies depending on the
local context.12 For instance, while the linkages between
urbanization and economic growth have been apparent
in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, several authors have
highlighted that the relationship between urbanization
and economic development has decoupled in Sub-Saharan
Africa, citing several reasons e.g. widespread neglect and
bad management of cities, among other factors.13
In relation to environmental sustainability, the World Cities

Report 2020 notes that urbanization, if unplanned or
unmanaged, presents threats such as “unbridled urban sprawl,
irreversible land-use changes and biodiversity loss, resource
and energy-intensive consumption patterns, and high levels
of pollution and carbon emissions.” In the same vein, Chapter
5 of this Report stresses the threat posed by the twin crises
of climate change and the loss of global biodiversity to the Metro Manila, Philippines © Shutterstock
Box 2.3: Projections and data sources for the Degree of Urbanization methodology
The projections presented in this chapter produce different estimates of urban and rural population as compared to national
definitions for two main reasons. First, some national definitions include medium-sized settlements or towns in the urban category,
while others categorize them as rural. The Degree of Urbanization classifies these settlements into its own category: “towns and semi-
dense areas.” The second reason is that the projections of population by Degree of Urbanization are not derived from an extrapolation
of the trends of rural and urban population aggregated at the national level, as normally done in the United Nations World Urbanization
Prospects,15 but from a bottom-up approach starting at the grid cell level.
With the Degree of Urbanization approach, urbanization is not predetermined from national trends but emerges from a gravity model
that reflects the surrounding and attractiveness of each grid cell. The parameters used in this model have been estimated for different
regions of the world and are based on changes in population and built-up area grids between 1975 and 2015.
Since the population by Degree of Urbanization is based on geographically-detailed data, it is possible to do a more detailed analysis.
The Degree of Urbanization can be applied at multiple points in time, which makes it possible, for example, to measure the impact of
expansion and densification separately for each city.
In terms of data sources, the projections and trends in this chapter rely on three distinct data sets. For the period 1950 to 1975, the
population by Degree of Urbanization has been estimated by combing data based on national definitions from the World Urbanization
Prospects and estimates of the population by the Degree of Urbanization for 1975 produced by the European Commission’s Joint
Research Centre (JRC). From 1975 to 2015, the data relies global estimated population grids for 1975, 1990, 2000 and 2015 produced
by the JRC. The data from 2015 to 2070 relies on projected population grids produced by Jones et al. (2020). The national population
projections are derived from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: Middle of the Road scenario as prepared by the International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).
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2.2. City Population Continues Growing Over the past seven decades, the world has experienced
as Towns and Rural Areas Experience significant population growth and notable demographic
Slowdown “megatrends,” including urbanization, which have significant
implications for economic and social development as well
Urbanization undoubtedly presents a unique opportunity as environmental sustainability.17 In 1950, the global
for social and economic progress.16 On the other hand, as population was relatively small at only 2.5 billion and mostly
highlighted in Chapter 1, it also presents challenges when rural. By 2020, the global population had grown to 7.8 billion
planning systems and public institutions are not equipped and most people lived in cities. This transformation has
to deal with the challenges posed by rapid urbanization. had big economic, social and environmental consequences
Rapid population growth in cities, for instance, can lead to which various chapters of this report examine with a view to
congestion and crowding when it is not anticipated with achieving sustainable futures.
adequate infrastructure and housing and when the expansion
of the city is not properly planned and managed. As a result, In 1950, most people lived in rural areas, followed by
the population growth in cities, especially rapid growth, is towns and semi-dense areas, while cities were the least
a central concern as humanity moves into a future that is inhabited. Faster growth in city population meant that by
predominantly urban. 1965, the global population was equally distributed across
these three types of areas (Figure 2.3). By 1990, the order
Uncovering some of these demographic trends using a had reversed with most people living in cities, followed
harmonized global methodology that captures the urban- by towns and semi-dense areas, and then rural areas last.
rural continuum in a consistent manner is therefore In 2020, almost half the global population lived in cities,
fundamental. In this regard, this section applies the Degree while 29 per cent lived in towns and semi dense areas and
of Urbanization to briefly examine the demographic trends 22 per cent in rural areas.
of the three classes of settlements that comprise Level 1 in
Box 2.1. It provides a synopsis of previous decades before However, this large transformation is projected to slow
venturing into future projections of what is expected to into the future. Demographic growth has already started to
unfold until 2070. Similarly, using this harmonized data, it decelerate and is projected to continue to do so over the
peeks into future anticipated land-cover changes. coming decades. The share of population in cities is projected
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The rural population, on the other hand, has grown more

The share of population in cities is projected to slowly than total population from 1975 to 2020. This growth
grow at a slower pace to reach 58 per cent of is projected to continue to slow down until 2050, after
the global population in 2070, while the share in which a slight decrease in absolute numbers is expected. As
towns and semi-dense areas is expected drop to a result, its population share has dropped from 38 per cent
24 per cent in 1950 to 22 per cent in 2020 and to 18 per cent in 2070.
to grow at a slower pace to reach 58 per cent of the global In terms of geographic regions, data from the Degree of
population in 2070, while the share in towns and semi-dense Urbanization shows Sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania to be
areas is expected drop to 24 per cent. having the lowest city population share in 1950 (Figure
2.4). These two regions—together with Northern Africa
Notably, the population in towns and semi-dense areas has and Western Asia—are projected to experience the biggest
generally grown at the same speed as the total population increase in the city population share in the future. On the
between 1950 and 2020. As a result, it has maintained its other end of the spectrum, Europe will experience the
population share of 30 per cent over that period, but the smallest increase in its city population share among the
absolute number of people in these areas tripled from 750 regions. In most regions, the population share will drop in
million to 2.25 billion. The population in these settlements is both rural areas as well as towns and semi-dense areas. In
projected to continue growing, but more slowly than the total the Americas, Europe, Australia and New Zealand, however,
population. Between 2050 and 2070, however, population the population share in towns and semi-dense areas barely
in towns and semi-dense areas will start declining. changes over time.
Figure 2.3: Evolution of population by degree of urbanization 1950–2070 in absolute and relative terms
10
9
8
Population (Billions)
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2060
100% 2070
90%
80%
% of total population
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2060
2070
Cities Towns Rural
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Figure 2.4: Population share by degree of urbanization and SDG region (1950–2070) ordered by city population share in 1950
Oceania Sub-Saharan Africa Eastern and South-Eastern Asia

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
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2070
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
Northern Africa and Western Asia Northern America Europe
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
Latin America and the Caribbean Central and Southern Asia Australia and New Zealand
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
City Town and semi-dense areas Rural
Nairobi, Kenya © Kirsten Milhahn/UN-Habitat
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Figure 2.5: Population share by degree of urbanization and income level (1950–2070)
Low income Lower-middle income

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
Upper-middle income High income
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
City Town and semi-dense areas Rural
When these demographic changes are assessed in terms of The growth of population in cities, towns and semi-dense
income groups, the data show that low-income countries had areas invariably leads to spatial expansion. Past studies
the smallest share of city population (17 per cent) in 1950, have shown urban land area growing at a higher rate than
while high-income countries had the highest share (31 per population and, relatedly, population densities have also
cent). Because city population shares in low-income countries been declining as a result of more dispersed patterns of
increased faster than in high-income countries, this gap has urbanization in the form of urban sprawl.18 These trends
shrunk from 14 to 7 percentage points and is projected to significantly affect the environment and have profound
drop to 5 percentage points by 2070 (Figure 2.5). socioeconomic repercussions. These effects include negative
impacts on ecosystem services and increased energy
Over the past decades, population growth rates in lower- consumption, higher cost of providing infrastructure (often
income countries have been higher than in other countries. leading to the uneven or unequal distribution of services), a
This trend is expected to continue. By contrast, high-income
countries have had relatively low population growth rates,
which are projected to slow further and reach almost zero sustainable futures call for slowing down
by 2070. Upper- and lower-middle-income countries have urban sprawl and, if possible, ensuring that
also experienced higher growth rates in the past decades, the compactness of cities is maintained or
but they are also slowing down. The population of upper- increased over time in line with Target 11.3 of
middle-income countries is even projected to shrink from SDG 11
2040 onwards.
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reduction in the economies of agglomeration and decreased 2.3. What is Driving Population Growth in
urban productivity, among others. Yet, sustainable futures Cities?
call for slowing down urban sprawl and, if possible, ensuring
that the compactness of cities is maintained or increased The previous section and Chapter 1 show that urbanization
over time in line with Target 11.3 of SDG 11—which also is pervasive although the level, pace and processes driving
provides a measure of how efficiently cities “utilize” land.19 urbanization are uneven across the world. The previous
sections of this chapter have also described nuanced trends
The Degree of Urbanization shows that the share of land along the urban-rural continuum based on the classes in new
occupied by cities is small (0.5 per cent in 2020), but has global definition (“cities,” “towns and semi-dense areas”
been growing (from 0.2 per cent in 1975) and is projected and “rural areas”). This section delves into the most distinct
to keep growing (to 0.7 per cent in 2070) (Figure 2.6). In and unique pattern emerging at the global level that carries
contrast, land covered by towns and semi-dense areas double significant implications for urban futures: population growth
between 1975 and 2020, but it is projected to start shrinking in cities.20
from 2040 onwards due to conversion to city and rural land.
This projection also indicates that the amount of urban land Depending on how it is managed, population growth in cities
is likely to shrink after 2050. can contribute to sustainable urban futures and deliver on
the optimistic scenario described in Chapter 1 by increasing
City land in low-income countries has been growing rapidly economic productivity, spurring innovations and new ideas
and is projected to more than double between 2020 and 2070 that enable people to find a better job and better access to
(Figure 2.7). Additionally, land covered by towns and semi- services. On the other hand, if this growth is not planned for
dense areas in low-income countries is projected to grow, but and well-managed, it can exacerbate poverty and inequality
at a slower pace (+50 per cent between 2020 and 2070). (increasing the population of slums or poorly-serviced
In contrast, upper-middle-income countries are projected to neighbourhoods), compound environmental problems and
experience the slowest increase in city land (+10 per cent
between 2020 and 2070) and land covered by towns and semi-
dense areas is likely to shrink, in part due to their shrinking Depending on how it is managed,
population. Urban land in lower-middle- and high-income population growth in cities can
countries is projected to grow, but the pace slowing over time contribute to sustainable urban
to reach almost zero between 2060 and 2070. futures
Figure 2.6: Land covered by cities, towns and semi-dense areas, 1975–2070
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1975 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
0.54% 0.72% 0.83% 0.98% 1.09% 1.12% 1.12% 1.10% 1.05% 0.99%
0.22% 0.31% 0.39% 0.46% 0.52% 0.58% 0.63% 0.66% 0.69% 0.70%
City Town and semi-dense areas
43
Figure 2.7: Land covered by cities, towns and semi-dense areas and income group, 1975–2070
Land covered by cities, towns and semi-dense areas in low Land covered by cities, towns and semi-dense areas in Lower-
income countries, 1975-2070 middle income countries, 1975-2070
1.0% 3.5%
0.9%
3.0%
0.8%
As a share of total land

0.7% 2.5%
0.6%
2.0%
0.5%
1.5%
0.4%
0.3% 1.0%
0.2%
0.5%
0.1%
0% 0%
1975 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 1975 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
0.10% 0.14% 0.19% 0.24% 0.29% 0.32% 0.35% 0.38% 0.41% 0.43% 0.75% 0.95% 1.14% 1.41% 1.62% 1.73% 1.80% 1.86% 1.90% 1.91%
0.07% 0.09% 0.11% 0.15% 0.19% 0.23% 0.29% 0.35% 0.40% 0.45% 0.31% 0.49% 0.65% 0.82% 0.98% 1.13% 1.26% 1.35% 1.40% 1.42%
Land covered by cities, towns and semi-dense areas Upper- Land covered by cities, towns and semi-dense areas in high
middle income countries, 1975-2070 income countries, 1975-2070
1.8% 1.8%
1.6% 1.6%
1.4% 1.4%
1.2% 1.2%
1.0% 1.0%
0.8% 0.8%
0.6% 0.6%
0.4% 0.4%
0.2% 0.2%
0% 0%
1975 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 1975 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
0.49% 0.76% 0.90% 1.07% 1.19% 1.22% 1.19% 1.11% 0.99% 0.85% 0.67% 0.75% 0.79% 0.87% 0.91% 0.91% 0.90% 0.89% 0.87% 0.85%
0.17% 0.25% 0.31% 0.35% 0.39% 0.41% 0.43% 0.43% 0.44% 0.44% 0.32% 0.39% 0.47% 0.51% 0.58% 0.64% 0.68% 0.72% 0.75% 0.78%
City Town and semi-dense areas
pose challenges to the achievement of net-zero goal, thus 2.3.1. Natural growth is the main driver of city
leading to the pessimistic or even high damage scenarios population growth
described in Chapter 1. As a result, this section, using Several studies have warned about the frequent
new data from the harmonized definition of cities in the overestimation of the role of rural-urban migration in the
Degrees of Urbanization approach, revisits the drivers of rapid urban growth recorded in last decades in particular in
city population growth, including the questions of how cities Sub-Saharan Africa.21 Despite using different methodologies
expand, how new cities emerge and how the age of a city’s to understand the demographic drivers of urban growth,
population differs from those in the rest of the country. these studies generally agree that about 60 per cent of the
44
urban population increase is attributable to natural growth population in low-income countries is projected to increase
and the remaining 40 per cent is due to the combined effect by 12 per cent. Two-thirds of this increase (8 per cent) stems
of migration and reclassification of areas. Because most from natural change (fixed share) and only one-third from
of the growth in city population is due to natural change rural-to-city migration (change in share).
and expansion, restricting migration into cities would have
relatively little impact.22 In high-income countries, both components (fixed share and
change in share) contribute equally to growth, and both are
These warnings and estimates are confirmed by the analysis shrinking over time. In upper-middle-income countries, the
of city population growth over time (Figure 2.8). In lower- contribution of the natural change (fixed share) is decreasing
middle- and low-income countries, city population growth is at a faster rate than rural-to-city migration (change in share)
mainly determined by natural change (captured in the fixed and becomes negative after 2040. This decline is because
share component, see Box 2.4). The influence of city-to-rural the national population is projected to shrink from 2040
migration (captured by the change in share component) onwards and only the rural-to-city migration ensures that city
has been dropping over time and is projected to continue populations continue to grow.
to do so. For example, between 2060 and 2070, the city
Box 2.4: Different drivers of population change
National population change is often broken down into “natural change” (the difference between the numbers of births and
deaths) and “net migration” (the difference between in-migration and outmigration). At the national level, this natural change and
international net-migration data are usually available. Measuring population change at the city level, however, is more complicated.
At the city level, net migration has to consider both international and internal migration. Data is usually not available for natural
change at the city level. Finally, the boundaries of a city can change over time, leading to a reclassification of population. As a result,
this chapter splits population growth in two different ways.
City population growth can be split into two components based on the changes in the city population share:
• Fixed share shows how much the population of a city would grow if its share of the national population remained fixed. This
would be the case if it had the same natural change and net-migration rate as its country did. In lower-income countries, this will
primarily be driven by natural change.
• Change in share shows how much the population of a city grows because its share of the national population changed. This share
can grow due to net migration, expanding city boundaries and differences in natural change. In lower-income countries, this will
be mainly driven by rural-urban migration.
City population growth can also be split into change and reclassification:
1. Population change:
i. Within the initial boundaries of the city.

ii. Within areas that are newly classified as a city.
2. Reclassification: Initial population in areas that are newly classified as (part of) a city.
i. Expansion: Rural, suburban and peri-urban areas that have been added to a city.
ii. Annexation: A town is added to a city.
iii. A new city: An area, typically a town or village, grows enough in population and density to be classified as a city.
45
Figure 2.8: Components of city population growth, 1960–2070
70%
City population growth over the previous decade
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
-10%
Low income Lower-middle income Upper-middle income High income
Fixed population share in cities Changes in the population share in cities
2.3.2. Expanding cities and new cities Most new cities will be towns that have grown to attaining
One important, and often ignored, driver in expansion of city the threshold for “city” classification as per the Degree of
population is represented by the changes in the classification Urbanization harmonized definition. The contribution of
of an area. So far attempts to explicitly account for the role these reclassifications is higher in low-income countries and
of reclassification in explaining urban growth have been leads to a 5 per cent increase city population per decade.
hindered by the lack of harmonization in the definitions Further, from the spatial analysis using the Degree of
and the absence of detailed boundaries. However, with the Urbanization approach, the transformation of a rural area
new definitions and by using spatial methods applied on directly to city can also be observed in low-income countries.
population grids, some studies have started to demonstrate This phenomenon, however, does not happen in countries
how this role is far from being negligible.23 with higher incomes.
As population grows, some areas originally classified as towns In high-income countries, new cities will be rare. Between
or rural areas are reclassified as cities and their population 2060 and 2070, new cities are projected contribute to
starts to contribute to city population growth. The other increase the city population by only 0.5 per cent. In contrast,
sources of city population growth are natural change in low-income countries the emergence of new cities
and migration. By applying the classification by Degree of between 2060 and 2070 is projected to increase the city
Urbanization at multiple points in time, the impact of the population by 2.3 per cent. The emergence of new cities
change in classification for each cell can be captured and of small size poses challenges in terms of urban governance
aggregated. Overall, the spatial expansion of cities and the for low-income countries. The previous World Cities Reports
emergence of new cities are projected to contribute between
20–40 per cent of the growth in city population. However,
as highlighted in the previous subsection, most population the spatial expansion of cities and
growth in cities is due to natural change (fixed share) and the emergence of new cities are
most of that growth will occur within the initial boundaries projected to contribute between
of a city, while reclassification will add less and less to city 20–40 per cent of the growth in city
populations (Figure 2.9). population
46
Figure 2.9: The role of reclassification in city population growth during the previous decade, 2030–2070
30%
To realize sustainable urban futures, an

integrated and territorial approach to urban
25%
development is imperative
City population growth over the previous decade
To realize sustainable urban futures, an integrated and

20%
territorial approach to urban development is imperative.
Various levels of government can develop and implement
15% national urban policies and strategies that ensure integrated
spatial growth and development to harness the potential
of such small and intermediate cities within national
10% urban systems. These settlements offer a significant, but
often untapped, potential for achieving the Sustainable
Development Goals and contributing to sustainable futures.
5% The poor data and information on these cities pose severe
challenges for evidence-based policy formulation. For
instance, the lack of sufficient geographic detail and of a
0%
harmonized definition makes it impossible to unpack the
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
specific components of urban growth.

Low income Lower-middle Upper-middle High income
-5% income income
In low-income countries, expansion and annexation account
for a relatively small share of city population growth and the
Initial population annexation and expansion areas
Initial population in new cities
high growth rates are mainly driven by population growth
Population growth within boundaries of the initial city and new city areas within the initial city boundaries and the new city areas
(Figure 2.10). On the other hand, expansion and annexation
are more important in high-income countries because cities
have highlighted the plight of secondary or intermediary
cities in most countries. Often, these cities face challenges in
managing urbanization. They struggle to attract investments;
generate employment; and meet the demand for housing,
infrastructure and basic urban services.24
asymmetrical development
compounds the urban spatial divide
Despite these challenges, policy discussions on urbanization

have been dominated in the past by their attention on the
unprecedented growth of megacities and large cities. As
illustrated in Chapter 4, the “winner-takes-all” phenomenon
propels megacities and large cities to growing economically
faster than others creating more localized development as
opposed to allowing more diffused spatial development across
territories. Such asymmetrical development compounds the
urban spatial divide, especially with regard to secondary cities—
whose populations, especially in regions such as Sub-Saharan
Africa, often face multiple deprivations relating to income and
employment, water and sanitation, health and housing.25 Medellin, Colombia © Kirsten Milhahn/UN-Habitat
47
Figure 2.10: City population growth between 2020 and 2030 of the lines for children do not change substantially, but tend
by city size, income group and source of growth to shift downwards. This indicates an overall reduction in
the share of children at the country level, but illustrates no
25%
fundamental changes in rural/city differences.
Population growth between 2020 and 2030 in existing cities
In upper-middle-income countries, a reduction of the intercept

20%
between 2050 and 2000 shows the effect demographic
transition in terms of changes of overall age structure at
national level. This change is also accompanied by a flattening
15% of the lines, which indicates that rural areas are converging
towards the lower fertility and mortality levels found in cities.
10% While differentials in age structure for the age groups of

children can be mainly attributed to fertility and mortality,
differences in other age groups stem both from cohort
5%
effects (population residing in the areas moving to the next
age group) and migration patterns which can also have a
strong age component.27
0%
In all income groups, the slopes invert from positive to
<=250K
250K-1M
1M-5M
>5M
<=250K
250K-1M
1M-5M
>5M
<=250K
250K-1M
1M-5M
>5M
<=250K
250K-1M
1M-5M
>5M
negative when moving from children to young adults’ cohorts.

This inversion indicates that cities attract more younger adults
Low income Lower-middle Upper-middle High income
income income relative to towns and rural areas. In low-income countries, the
slopes are more pronounced and the inversion is anticipated to
Population growth within the boundaries of the initial city and the new areas
the age group 15–19. For high-income countries, the negative
Due to initial population in expansion areas slope starts at age 20 in correspondence with migrations of
Due to initial population in annex areas students to cities for tertiary education.
Another inversion that can be observed after age 50,

tend to be surrounded by larger suburbs, which are absorbed particularly in high-income countries, denotes how population
by the city as it expands. This tendency is particularly the ageing is affecting rural areas. This trend is likely attributable
case for small cities, where the population of the surrounding to migrations from cities to rural areas in correspondence
suburbs is more important relative to the city population with retirement. Differentials in age distribution between
than is the case for larger cities. cities, towns and rural areas have implications both for the
ageing of population in countries in advanced stages of their
2.3.3. Cities attract more young adults, while rural demographic transition and for countries with still high
areas have more children fertility rates and large youth populations.
In the rural areas of low- and lower-middle-income countries,
children as a share of the rural population is higher than the Overall, the large share of youth population in cities is expected
share of children in the city population (Figure 2.11). These to persist. If accompanied by favourable conditions, large
higher shares reflect the higher fertility rates in rural areas youth bulges concentrated in cities of developing countries
which is documented in several analyses based on Demographic represent the source of a demographic dividend. In the
and Health Survey data.26 Between 1950 and 2050, the slopes absence of such conditions, they pose several demographic
and socio-economic challenges. Provided there are sufficient
employment opportunities, a large youth population frees up
In the rural areas of low- and resources for investments and boosts productivity. 28 This
lower-middle-income countries, positive effect holds true irrespective of the level of income
children as a share of the rural and geographical area. Where employment opportunities are
population is higher than the share lacking, youth bulges may be a source of unrest, violence
of children in the city population and conflicts.29
48
Figure 2.11: Population share by age group in cities, towns and semi-dense areas, and rural areas in 1950, 2020 and 2050
00-04 05-09 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+
15%
High 10%
income 5%
0%
15%
Upper- 10%
middle 5%
income
0%
15%
Lower- 10%
middle 5%
income
0%
15%
Low 10%
income 5%
0%
City Town Rural 1950 2020 2050
Note: This graph shows the population share for five-year age groups by Degree of Urbanization for three points in time. The data points of the three classes of the Degree of
Urbanization are connected by a line. A line with an upward slope means that a higher share of that age groups lives in rural areas as compared to cities. A line with a downward
slope means that a higher share of that age group lives in cities as compared to rural areas.
2.4. Growth in Cities is Slowing Down, but some based on size of cities (Box 2.5), income grouping and
Less for Large Cities geographic region. Some will even experience population
loss and shrinkage in the future.
More than a decade ago, the UN-Habitat flagship report
State of the World Cities 2008/09 described cities as “one
of humanity’s most complex creations, never finished, never
definitive. They are like a journey that never ends. Their Box 2.5: City size classification
evolution is determined by their ascent into greatness or
their descent into decline. They are the past, the present and Cities as defined by the Degree of Urbanization are
the future.”30 The analysis of previous and anticipated future divided into four size classes:
trends using the harmonized definition of cities provides an
insight into this evolution of cities in a coherent way. As 1. Small cities have a population between 50,000 and
alluded to in previous sections, it shows that cities have been 250,000 inhabitants.
growing demographically and spatially and will continue to
do so. 2. Medium-sized cities have a population between
250,000 and 1 million inhabitants.
At the same time, the data paint a picture of overall growth:
the number of cities globally doubled between 1975 and 3. Large cities have a population between 1 and 5
2020 to 14,000. However, the data also show that the growth million inhabitants.
in the number of cities will slow down—with only another
3,000 new cities appearing over the next 50 years. As the 4. Very large cities have a population of a least 5 million
following subsections will illustrate, this global slowdown in inhabitants.
the growth of the number of cities hides a lot of variation,
49
Figure 2.12: Growth in the number of cities 1975–2070 by income group
9,000
8,000
7,000
Number of cities
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
High Income Upper-middle income Lower-middle income Low Income
2.4.1. Cities in low-income countries continue to From a geographical perspective, the two regions with the
grow in numbers biggest absolute increase in the number of cities between
Low-income countries experienced the largest increases in 1975 and 2020 are Central and Southern Asia (+2,500)
the number of cities between 1975 and 2020 (+270 per and Sub-Saharan Africa (+1,800) (Figure 2.13). According
cent), while high-income countries experienced the smallest to the projections, they will also experience the biggest
increase (+30 per cent). Increases in middle-income increases between 2020 and 2070 (+850 and + 1,700,
countries were between these two extremes (+55 per respectively).
cent and +130 per cent) (Figure 2.12). Projections indicate
that, between 2020 and 2070, the number of cities in low- The two regions with the lowest relative increase in the
income countries will grow far more than in the rest of the number of cities between 1975 and 2020 are Europe, where
world. An increase of 76 per cent, compared to 6 per cent they remained constant, and Eastern and South-Eastern Asia,
in upper-middle-income countries. The number of cities in where they increased by 35 per cent. The projections also
high-income and lower-middle-income countries will both suggest that the growth in cities will remain low in these
increase by about 20 per cent. two regions. In Europe, the number of cities is projected
Figure 2.13 Growth in the number of cities 1975–2070 by region of the world
6,000
5,000
Number of cities
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Australia and New Zealand Central and Southern Asia Eastern and South-Eastern Asia
Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Northern Africa and Western Asia
Northern America Oceania Sub-Saharan Africa
50
to increase by only 9 per cent between 2020 and 2070 especially in poorer countries, and urbanization by itself is
while the number of cities is projected to remain constant in not a sufficient condition for economic development.31
Eastern and South-Eastern Asia.
The new harmonized definition and data set allow us to
The biggest increase in cities with 1 or 5 million inhabitants capture primacy, or the relative importance of the biggest
between 2020 and 2070 is projected to happen in Sub- city, in two ways: (a) by calculating the population in the
Saharan Africa and Central and Southern Asia. In Sub- largest city relative to total city population in a country and
Saharan Africa, the number of cities with at least 1 million (b) via the Hirschman-Herfindahl Index (HHI), a common
inhabitants will increase from 60 to 134 over the next 50 measure of concentration.32 Noteworthy, because, for most
years and those with at least 5 million will increase from countries, it was not possible to obtain data for each city, most
six to 28. For Central and Southern Asia, the respective studies relied on a less suitable indicator: the population of
increases are from 117 to 183 and from 16 to 31. In all the largest city as a share of the national population.
other regions, the increase is much lower. Notably, Eastern
and South-Eastern Asia is projected to see a small reduction Overall, primacy tends to be higher in smaller countries as well
of cities with at least 5 million, from 29 to 27. as in more developed countries (Table 2.1). A small country may
only have a single city, leading to high primacy. For example,
2.4.2. In more developed countries, the largest city Bahrain, Lesotho, Mauritius, Timor-Leste and Singapore only
tends to be more important have one city. In a large country, a single city cannot capture
Urbanization and the concentration of population in cities a large share of the country’s city population. For example,
is seen by standard economic geography as a finite and in India the biggest city only accounts for 4 per cent of the
beneficial process, part of the transformation from agrarian country’s city population. The city population share in the
to industrialized societies. Higher concentration has largest city decreases from 69 per cent in small countries (1 to
been historically associated with economic development, 5 million total population) to 21 per cent on average in very
improvements in living standards, better education, large countries (i.e., with more than 100 million inhabitants);
lower fertility, technological development and increased HHI decreases from 56 per cent on average in small countries
productivity. However, these outcomes are not guaranteed, to 8 per cent on average in very large countries.
Figure 2.14: Number of cities with at least 1 or 5 million inhabitants per region, 2020–2070
250 80
70
200
60
150 50
40
100 30
20
50
10
0 0
Sub-Saharan Africa
Central and Southern Asia
Australia and New Zealand

Northern Africa and Western Asia
Northern America
Latin America and the Caribbean
Europe
Oceania
Eastern and South-Eastern Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa

Northern Africa and
Western Asia
Latin America and the

Caribbean
Northern America
Europe
Asia
Oceania
Eastern and South-Eastern
2020 2030
2050 2070
2020 2030 2050 2070 Increase 2020-2070 (right axis) Increase 2020-2070 (right axis)
51
Table 2.1: Urban primacy by country size and income group or SDG region, 2020
Country population size group 1-5 5-10 10-25 25-50 50-100 > 100 Total
million million million million million million
Population in largest city as share of population in all cities
Low Income 62% 63% 37% 37% 29% 6% 41%
Lower-middle income 77% 46% 47% 28% 32% 24% 44%
Upper-middle income 62% 55% 40% 34% 35% 18% 45%
High Income 74% 62% 47% 25% 31% 25% 53%
Oceania 8% 8%
Northern America 30% 10% 20%
Central and Southern Asia 50% 43% 35% 26% 15% 34%
Australia and New Zealand 61% 28% 45%
Sub-Saharan Africa 65% 60% 35% 39% 31% 9% 45%
Europe 62% 54% 43% 18% 24% 22% 47%
Latin America and the Caribbean 71% 57% 44% 39% 27% 22% 49%
Northern Africa and Western Asia 82% 53% 50% 23% 30% 32% 50%
Eastern and South-Eastern Asia 96% 84% 56% 31% 45% 31% 54%
All 69% 56% 42% 31% 32% 21% 46%
Herfindahl- Hirschman Index
Low Income 45% 43% 19% 17% 12% 1% 24%
Lower-middle income 67% 29% 28% 12% 13% 9% 28%
Upper-middle income 47% 38% 21% 16% 17% 5% 29%
High Income 61% 46% 28% 12% 15% 11% 38%
Oceania 3% 3%
Northern America 13% 3% 8%
Central and Southern Asia 29% 25% 14% 8% 5% 17%
Australia and New Zealand 40% 17% 29%
Sub-Saharan Africa 54% 40% 18% 20% 13% 1% 29%
Europe 45% 37% 25% 7% 9% 6% 30%
Latin America and the Caribbean 54% 39% 25% 20% 10% 7% 31%
Northern Africa and Western Asia 72% 35% 31% 7% 11% 12% 35%
Eastern and South-Eastern Asia 93% 74% 35% 13% 25% 14% 39%
All 56% 39% 23% 14% 15% 8% 30%
Note: SDG regions ranked from low to high primacy. Countries with less than 1 million inhabitants are not included.
52
Primacy also tends to be higher in high-income countries than tripled to 70 million in 2020 and is projected to double by
in lower-income countries, but the relationship is complex. 2070 to reach almost 140 million.
Econometric analyses show that the relationship between the
concentration of population in the biggest city, or primacy, Population in cities in lower-middle-income countries
and economic growth is not linear. Given the population size is projected to increase from half a billion to 2.5 billion
and the level of development of a country, there is an optimal people between 1975 and 2070. Population increases were
range of primacy where it contributes to economic growth, the biggest for cities with at least 5 million inhabitants,
beyond which it acts as a brake on development.33 increasing from 60 to about 360 million between 1975 and
2020 (+500 per cent). The projections indicate that this
As population continues to grow in most countries, primacy population will further increase to 830 million by 2070.
is also projected to drop. On average, city primacy in 2020
was 46 per cent, which is slightly lower than in 1975 (49 City population in upper-middle-income countries increased
per cent). Projections indicate that it will continue to drop, from 540 million people in 1975 to 1.2 billion people in
reaching 45 per cent in 2070. The HHI shows the same 2020, but projections show that the population size will
pattern: decreasing from 36 per cent in 1975 to 30 per cent level off over the coming decades, stagnating at around 1.35
in 2020 and projected to reach 29 per cent in 2070. billion between 2050 and 2070. The largest increments
in city population in these countries have taken place
The two regions with the highest average primacy are Eastern prior to 2020. Noteworthy, the growth in city population
and South-Eastern Asia and Northern Africa and Western is concentrated in cities with at least 5 million inhabitants,
Asia. In both, primacy tends to be significantly higher in in the which increased from 65 million in 1975 to 310 million in
various country population size groups, which may indicate 2020 (+400 per cent). It is projected to still increase, but at
that excessive primacy could limit economic growth. Faster a much slower rate, to 370 million by 2070 (+20 per cent).
population growth of the smaller cities in these countries Population in smaller cities grows more slowly in upper-
would reduce their primacy and may help to reduce pressure middle-income countries.
on the largest city.
City population in high-income countries grew from about
2.4.3. More and more people are living in large 350 million people in 1975 to about 615 million people
cities in 2020, and is projected to pass 800 million people in
City population growth varies by income group and city 2070. Notably, cities with at least 5 million inhabitants
population size (Figure 2.15). In low-income countries, city are exhibiting an almost similar trend. These cities had
population increases from below 100 million people in 1975 a population of only 80 million in 1975, which increased
to more than 700 million people in 2070. Most significant two and a half times to reach 200 million in 2020 and is
change takes place in the cities with more than 5 million projected to reach over 300 million in 2070. On the other
inhabitants. Low-income countries did not have a single city hand, the slow growth recorded in smaller cities is projected
of this size in 1975. By 2020 there were three cities with to continue into the future. However, as noted in Chapter
more than 5 million inhabitants, which hosted about 18 1, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a net population
million people: Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; Kabul, Afghanistan; decline of some large cities of countries like the US as people
and Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo. By 2070, migrate to smaller cities and towns, a shift speculated to be
low-income countries are projected to have 15 cities in this temporary.
class with a cumulative population exceeding 150 million
people. The total population in cities of between 1 and 5 There are significant differences between income classes
million inhabitants was only 18 million in 1975. That figure when it comes to the change of city numbers over time.
Overall, there is an accentuated growth of cities in lower-
income countries. This trend is particularly clear from Figure
The total population in cities of 2.16 in the low-income subplot (top-left quadrant), where
between 1 and 5 million inhabitants there is a linear growth of cities in all city size classes,
was only 18 million in 1975. That except from the largest size class (with more than 5 million
figure tripled to 70 million in 2020 inhabitants). The growth of the number of cities with at least
and is projected to double by 2070 5 million inhabitants in low-income countries is high and
to reach almost 140 million increases over time.
53
Dhaka Cityscape © Joker King/Shutterstock
54
Figure 2.15: City population by city size and income group, 1975–2070
Low Income Lower-middle income

800 3,000
700 2,500
600
2,000
500
Millions
Millions
400 1,500
300
1,000
200
500
100
0 0
1975
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
1975
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
<=250k 250k-1M 1M-5M >5M <=250k 250k-1M 1M-5M >5M
Upper-middle income High Income
1,600 900
1,400 800
700
1,200
600
1,000
500
Millions
Millions
800
400
600
300
400
200
200 100
0 0
1975
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
1975
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
<=250k 250k-1M 1M-5M >5M <=250k 250k-1M 1M-5M >5M
In the lower-middle-income countries (top-right quadrant), 2.4.4. Most growth in city land will occur in low-
the number of large cities grew slightly faster between income countries
1975 and 2020. Projections indicate that this process will As the world continues to urbanize, sustainable urban
continue with higher growth in the number of cities with at futures depend increasingly on the successful management
least 5 million inhabitants while the growth in the smaller of this urban growth. This expansion should be anticipated
cities slows down. with sound planning policies and related actions that guard
against dysfunctional and exploitative development practices
In upper-middle-income countries (bottom-left quadrant), such as land speculation and unserviceable sprawl, which
the number of cities stabilizes after 2020 for all city classes. cause inefficiencies and distortions that undermine the
In high-income countries, the number of cities with at 5 five urban economy.34
million inhabitants continues to grow also beyond 2020,
while the number of smaller cities only increases slightly.
55
Figure 2.16: Growth of the number of cities by population size and income group, 1975-2070
Growth of cities by population size group in low-income Growth of cities by population size group in Upper-middle
countries, 1975-2070 income countries, 1975-2070
300 300
Number of cities, 2020 = 100

250 250
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
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1980
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2070
<=250k 250k-1M 1M-5M >5M <=250k 250k-1M 1M-5M >5M
Growth of cities by population size group in Lower-middle Growth of cities by population size group in high income
income income countries, 1975-2070 countries, 1975-2070
300 300
250 250
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
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1980
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<=250k 250k-1M 1M-5M >5M <=250k 250k-1M 1M-5M >5M
The successful management of this urban growth—especially The rapid spatial expansion of the physical extent of cities
in low-income and lower-middle-income countries, where in Sub-Saharan Africa, for instance, is to a large extent
the pace of urbanization is projected to be the fastest—is attributed to peri-urbanization. The region is experiencing
key for sustainable development.35 The new data from the continual engulfment of un-serviced land in a mostly
Degree of Urbanization approach show that changes—in informal process largely driven by low-income households
terms of growth of city land area from 2020 levels—will attempting to secure land that is affordable and in reasonable
mostly take place in low-income countries (+141 per cent), locations.36 Recent studies have also confirmed that this
lower-middle-income (+44 per cent) and high-income rapid spatial expansion is taking place at a higher pace in
countries (+34 per cent) (Figure 2.17). Changes in upper- small and secondary cities than it is in large cities.37
middle-income countries are projected to be relatively small
(+13 per cent). Growth of physical extent of city land is Often, government structures, institutional capacities,
projected to be highest in Oceania (+109 per cent) and Sub- regulatory frameworks and land tenure systems in most
Saharan Africa, where it is projected to almost double. countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are not able to respond
56
effectively to the emergence of these new settlements. As such as property abandonment and a rise in inequality. These
such, expansion areas are not well-planned and, as well, worsening conditions force residents to seek opportunities in
lack public goods and social amenities—thus charting an other cities that offer higher quality of life, further spiralling
inefficient and unsustainable spatial development path with shrinking cities into long-term population loss if necessary
significant negative implications e.g. for rural livelihoods, measures and strategies are not implemented to tackle the
agriculture and food security.38 decline.40
On the other hand, the projections show that lowest growth While most of the cities projected to shrink by 2050 are small
in city land will be in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia (+10 (in Armenia, Barbados, Belarus, China, Cuba, El Salvador,
per cent), Latin America and the Caribbean (+14 per cent) Georgia, Germany, Japan, Moldova, Republic of Korea, Russia
and Europe (+16 per cent). These regions are relatively and Ukraine), there are notable large cities whose land area
highly urbanized and will be experiencing some of the is projected to shrink by more than one-tenth by 2050.
smallest increase in city population share (Figure 2.4). These include Daegu, Republic of Korea (-14 per cent);
Notably, a number of cities in these regions are projected to Kitakyushu, Japan (-15 per cent); and Saint Petersburg,
experience some level of shrinkage (Map 2.1). Russia (-20 per cent). The management of shrinking cities
requires innovative measures and strategies by policymakers
Shrinkage is not a new phenomenon. Past UN-Habitat flagship (Box 2.6). For example, Kitakyushu City—once renown as a
reports have recorded this phenomenon in both developing major iron and steel centre during the rapid industrialization
and developed countries, triggered by various reasons.39 years of Japan and now home to the fastest-growing ageing
Shrinking cities are often characterized by deteriorating population—has adopted green growth strategies to address
living conditions, environmental degradation, urban decay population decline and ensure regional revitalization.41
Figure 2.17: Growth of city land by income group and region, 1975–2070
Growth of city land by income group, 1975-2070 Growth of city land by income group, 1975-2070
250 250
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
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1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
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1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
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2050
2060
2070
High Income Upper-middle income Australia and New Zealand Northern Africa and Western Asia
Lower-middle income Low Income Central and Southern Asia Northern America
Eastern and South-Eastern Asia Oceania
Europe Sub-Saharan Africa
57
Map 2.1: City land area change, 2020–2050
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Total area change, in % Population
<0 250 000 - 500 000
0-5 500 000 - 1 000 000
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12.5 - 25 5 000 000 - 10 000 000
25 - 50 10 000 000 - 20 000 000
50 - 100 > 20 000 000
> 100 0 1 000 km 0 1 000 km
Only cities with at least 250 000 inhabitants in 2050 are shown.
Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso) is an example of a rapidly growing capital in Africa © Felix Vollmann/UN-Habitat
58
Box 2.6: Shrinking cities: Planning for future growth while anticipating decline
Management of shrinking cities requires innovative skills and strategies to contain population flight and attract new residents.
Policymakers should consider the following:
• Continuous monitoring is indispensable to understand population and spatial changes for evidence-based policy formulation and
future planning. This is useful in assessing the persistent presence of urban growth or shrinkage. In most places, poor data and
information (often lacking geographical detail) creates challenges for evidence-based policy formulation.
• Regional integration, connectivity and networking schemes aid cooperative public policy in changing urban areas. Improved
connectivity, for instance, is critical to maximizing the potential economic benefits of agglomeration or helping to offset the loss
of it. Moreover, enhanced networking of people and firms fosters innovation as well as the exchange of ideas, goods and services.
• Public-private partnerships allow for innovation, renewal and adaptation of the fiscal bases of cities. The focus of the
revitalization efforts in these cities should be on the needs of the disadvantaged segment of the population. Importantly, ensuring
voices from such groups are heard and they benefit from the growth and establishment of local anchor institutions rather than be
pushed out by the changing conditions (e.g. through gentrification). It is imperative to enhance public participation policies that
encourage more engagement from various actors in the planning process.
• Investments in public education and workforce development as well as knowledge transfer and economic diversification can
assist regions in moving from outdated economic activities to new businesses and sources of revenue.
• Increasing openness towards external migrants and integrating them into cities as part of a revitalization strategy to counteract
for depopulation from outmigration.
• Urban policies should facilitate planning for industrial environmental impacts in the declining phases of cities, and for
management of the environmental legacy of industrial activities.
• Flexible design and placement of assets (such as industrial infrastructure, commercial buildings, and infrastructure for water, sewage,
electricity and industrial land) facilitate transformation into new uses when necessary. For example, launch a green transformation of
abandoned industrial districts into ecological open space or revitalized public space, like a creatively-designed industrial park.
• Issues surrounding the environmental legacy of shrinking cities are a global phenomenon: planners and policymakers need to
be aware of the environmental changes that lead to shrinkage as well as the ways in which shrinkage leads to environmental
changes. Moreover, pursuing environmental justice presents an opportunity for addressing the decline (i.e., it can form a basis for
revitalization).
Source: Chen et al, 2021; Ortiz-Moya, 2020; Silverman, 2018; OECD, 2016; UN-Habitat, 2008; Martinez-Fernandez and Wu, 2007.
When these changes in city land are observed from the the land covered by larger cities grows faster. Nevertheless,
lens of city size and income groups, results show that the the big difference between income groups will remain with
lower the income of a country, the higher the share of city a far higher share of land covered by small cities in low-
land covered by small cities (less than 250,000 inhabitants) income countries (45 per cent) as compared to high-income
(Figure 2.18). In 2020, for instance, almost half of all city countries (23 per cent).
land in low-income countries was covered by small cities,
compared to around one-third in middle-income countries This trend essentially implies that small cities— as well as
and one-quarter in high-income countries. By 2070, the towns and semi-dense areas (as illustrated in Figure 2.6
share of land in small cities is projected to drop slightly as and Figure 2.7)—remain critical to achieving sustainable
59
development, especially in low-income countries. It is in the pivotal role they play as well to help reduce pressure on
these settlements that a variety of urban-rural linkages in primary cities in developing regions.
production, consumption and financial relationships, have
profound impact across the urban-rural continuum are
fostered;42 small cities (and towns and semi-dense areas)
essentially enhance synergy within the continuum of human Small cities— as well as towns and semi-dense
settlements. Therefore, given share of city land covered areas remain critical to achieving sustainable
by these settlements, adequate territorial planning and development, especially in low-income countries
enhanced capacities in these settlements can strengthen
Figure 2.18: City land by city size and income group, 1975–2070 (thousand square kilometres)
Low Income Upper-middle income
70 300
60
250
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200
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150
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<=250k 250k-1M 1M-5M >5M <=250k 250k-1M 1M-5M >5M
Lower-middle income High Income
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60
2.5. Sustainable Futures: How Dense Mozambique, in Figure 2.19. The land covered by the city of
Should Our Cities Be? Maputo would more than double under all three scenarios.
In the low-density scenario, for instance, the land occupied
The growth of cities both demographically and spatially over by the city of Maputo would increase by almost 160 per
the past several decades has highlighted the challenges of cent, while its population density drops from 6,000 to 5,000
managing city growth. UN-Habitat promotes well-planned inhabitants per sq. km (see Figure 2.19, top right). Under
and designed cities with adequate densities and recommends the high-density scenario, more growth will occur within the
increasing densities where necessary. The various classes of initial boundaries of the city, thus increasing density levels,
urban settlements discussed in this chapter can accommodate and additional city land will also be relatively high density.
growth through a mix of strategies, such as densification, Under this scenario, Maputo’s land would only grow by 35
mixed-use development, affordable housing, improved per cent, but its population density would double to 13,000
connectivity, increased access to public space and a diversity inhabitants per sq. km (see Figure 2.19, bottom right). The
of employment opportunities. These strategies should be medium density scenario leads to a moderate increase in
underscored by inclusive governance arrangements that population density and more limited spatial expansion (see
promote socially cohesive urban communities.43 Figure 2.19, bottom left).
This section explores and shows the impact of three different It worth noting that population growth within the initial
city development scenarios on the demand for city land and boundaries of a city or a town can be accommodated
city population densities in 2050. Density, increasingly through planned infills or densification by building on vacant
seen as a critical sustainability metric, is employed in land within the town or city, replacing low-rise buildings
these scenarios because it is “the intervening measure that with medium- or high-rise buildings. Planned city infills
translates population into land consumption.”44 The three can respond to future urban growth in an orderly manner,
scenarios are based on the density of cities, towns and semi- minimizing expansion through inefficient land-use patterns
dense areas for three different parts of the world (Table and leapfrogging that generates wasteful areas as well as
2.2). The biggest differences in density are for cities, a nine- avenues for speculation. Infills can also remedy fragmented
fold increase from the low- to the high-density scenario, urban spaces.
followed by towns with a six-fold increase, while semi-dense
areas remain very similar across the three scenarios. The
population density of a city is critical as it determines how Planned city infills can respond to future
much land is needed to accommodate a given population. In urban growth in an orderly manner, minimizing
this section, cities with a density below 3,000 inhabitants expansion through inefficient land-use patterns
per sq. km are considered “low density,” between 3,000 and leapfrogging that generates wasteful areas
and 6,000 is considered “medium density,” above 6,000 is as well as avenues for speculation
considered “high density.”
These density scenarios play out differently for cities in
In the low-density scenario, a city will tend to grow more various regions of the world. Medellín, Colombia—with a
horizontally and less vertically. For example, population very high population density at 16,000 inhabitants per sq.
density would not increase much in the centre of the city km in 2020—is projected to grow its city’s area in the range
and most growth would occur at the edges of the city and of 17 per cent and 100 per cent between 2020 and 2050
at lower densities as illustrated by the case of Maputo, depending on the scenario. In the low-density scenario,
Table 2.2: Population density in three development scenarios

Population density in 2015, inhabitants per sq. km
Scenario Based on Cities Towns Semi-dense areas
Low density Northern America 1,700 900 750
Medium density Northern and Western Europe 3,800 1,300 770
High density Eastern Asia 15,000 5,300 900
61
Figure 2.19: Maputo in 2020 and in 2050 under three different scenarios
Maputo Urban Centre 2020 Maputo Urban Centre 2050

Population density people/km² Low density scenario
Population density people/km²
1 - 500 10001 - 20000 1 - 500 10001 - 20000
501 - 1500 20001 - 30000 501 - 1500 20001 - 30000
1501 - 5000 30001 - 40000 1501 - 5000 30001 - 40000
5001 - 10000 > 40000 5001 - 10000 > 40000
Maputo Urban Centre 2050 Maputo Urban Centre 2050

Medium density scenario High density scenario
Population density people/km² Population density people/km²
1 - 500 10001 - 20000 1 - 500 10001 - 20000
501 - 1500 20001 - 30000 501 - 1500 20001 - 30000
1501 - 5000 30001 - 40000 1501 - 5000 30001 - 40000
5001 - 10000 > 40000 5001 - 10000 > 40000
its area would double and its density would drop to 9,500 which keeps population density around 8,700 inhabitants
inhabitants per sq. km, which is still high. The high-density per sq. km. In the low-density scenario, population density
scenario (Figure 2.20) would mean no expansion of city land, drops to 6,300 inhabitants per sq. km, and its area increases
but density would further increase to 21,000 inhabitants by 150 per cent.
per sq. km. The medium-density scenario strikes a balance
between the demand for land and density with a spatial Taejon, Republic of Korea, and Hamburg, Germany, are cities
expansion of only 33 per cent and a small reduction in where the impact of the scenarios is far smaller because
population density to 14,000 inhabitants per sq. km. their populations are not really projected to grow. For Taejon,
city land barely increases in the moderate- and low-density
The population of Lusaka, Zambia, is projected to at least scenario, while in the high-density scenario city land shrinks
double between 2020 and 2050. In the high-density (-23 per cent). In Hamburg, also virtually nothing changes
scenario, city land would only increase by 16 per cent, but in the moderate- and low-density scenario, but in the high-
this scenario doubles its density to 17,600 inhabitants per density scenario Hamburg attracts more residents leading to a
sq. km. In the moderate density scenario, city land doubles, growth in population (71 per cent) and in area (31 per cent).
62
2.5.1. City densities are high and growing in low- Figure 2.20: City expansion under three development
income countries scenarios in Medellin, Lusaka, Taejon and Hamburg
A review of past trends using the harmonized data from the
Degree of Urbanization approach shows that cities in low-
income countries are among the densest in the world. On
average, their density has increased over time from 7,000 Medellin, COL
to 11,000 inhabitants per sq. km between 1975 and 2015

(Figure 2.21). Cities in lower-middle-income countries had
a similar density to that of cities in low-income countries Lusaka, ZMB
in 1975, but their densities dropped a bit as their cities

expanded slightly faster than their populations grew. In
2015, their cities had an average density of about 7,000
inhabitants per sq. km. In upper-middle-income countries
and high-income countries, city densities were lower (5,000
and 3,000 respectively) and barely changed over time. These
countries experienced slower population growth, which Taejon, KOR
reduced the challenge of providing enough housing and

infrastructure. Hamburg, DEU
Esri, HERE, Garmin, (c) OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS user community
Legend
0 5 10 20 Kilometers
City population density by region shows more variation with

2050_H
2050_M
N
the highest densities in Central and Southern Asia, Oceania 2050_L
2020
and Sub-Saharan Africa and the lowest densities in Australia,

New Zealand and Northern America (Figure 2.21 and Map
2.2). In most countries, the density increases with the cities in low-income countries are among the
population size of the city, except in low-income countries densest in the world. On average, their density
where on average density does not necessarily increase with has increased over time from 7,000 to 11,000
population size as smaller cities also tend to be dense. inhabitants per sq. km between 1975 and 2015
Figure 2.21: City population density by income group and region, 1975–2015
City population density by income group, 1975-2015 City population density by region, 1975-2015
12,000 12,000
10,000 10,000
population per sq km
population per sq km
8,000 8,000
6,000 6,000
4,000 4,000
2,000 2,000
0 0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
High Income Upper-middle income Australia and New Zealand Central and Southern Asia
Lower-middle income Low Income Eastern and South-Eastern Asia Europe
Latin America and the Caribbean Northern Africa and Western Asia
Northern America Oceania
Sub-Saharan Africa
63
Map 2.2: Population density in cities, 2015
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Population density of cities, 2015

Inhabitants per sq km Population
< 2,000 250,000 - 500,000
2,000 - 4,000 500,000 - 1,000,000
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4,000 - 6,000 1,000,000 - 5,000,000
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6,000 - 8,000 5,000,000 - 10,000,000
8,000 - 10,000 10,000,000 - 20,000,000
> 10,000 > 20,000,000
0 1,000 km 0 1,000 km
Only cities with at least 250,000 inhabitants in 2015 are shown.
The impact of the three scenarios depends on rate of 4,000 by 2050. The two middle-income groups would
population growth. The scenarios take into account that it both experience a moderate increase reaching 9,000 in
is easier to change the density of new developments than lower-middle-income and 7,000 in upper-middle-income
of existing ones. As a result, the biggest impact is on the countries (Figure 2.22).
low-income countries as their population is projected to
increase the most (64 per cent between 2020 and 2050), 2.5.2. Aiming for adequate densities and managing
while the population increase in the other income groups is city expansions
much smaller (ranging from 2 to 29 per cent). For example, Compact, socially inclusive, better integrated and connected
city densities would not change dramatically in Northern cities are an imperative for sustainable urban futures.
America, Australia, New Zealand and Europe because their As highlighted in previous sections of this chapter and in
population growth is relatively low (Figure 2.22). By contrast, Chapter 6, the negative social, economic and environmental
densities would continue to increase rapidly in Sub-Saharan impacts of dispersed urban growth are significant. On the
Africa in the high-density scenario and drop substantially in other hand, compact development reduces sprawl, allows
the low-density scenario. for more efficient use of and preservation of land resources,
is associated with lower infrastructure cost per capita, and
Under the high-density scenario, population density in reduces long commutes (and consequently greenhouse gas
cities in low-income countries would continue to increase emission), among other benefits. For example, transport
and reach 14,000 by 2050, while densities in high- infrastructure and utilities are more costly to provide and
income countries would increase the least reaching just maintain in low-density development scenarios. Efficient
64
Figure 2.22: Population density in cities in 1990 and 2020 and in three different scenarios in 2050 by income group and SDG
region (density in inhabitants per sq. km)
Northern America Australia and New Zealand Europe
16,000 16,000 16,000
14,000 14,000 14,000
12,000 12,000 12,000
10,000 10,000 10,000
8,000 8,000 8,000
6,000 6,000 6,000
4,000 4,000 4,000
2,000 2,000 2,000
0 0 0
1990 2020 2050 1990 2020 2050 1990 2020 2050
Low Medium High Low Medium High Low Medium High
Eastern and South-Eastern Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Northern Africa and Western Asia
16,000 16,000 16,000
14,000 14,000 14,000
12,000 12,000 12,000
10,000 10,000 10,000
8,000 8,000 8,000
6,000 6,000 6,000
4,000 4,000 4,000
2,000 2,000 2,000
0 0 0
1990 2020 2050 1990 2020 2050 1990 2020 2050
Central and Southern Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Oceania

16,000 16,000 16,000
14,000 14,000 14,000
12,000 12,000 12,000
10,000 10,000 10,000
8,000 8,000 8,000
6,000 6,000 6,000
4,000 4,000 4,000
2,000 2,000 2,000
0 0 0
1990 2020 2050 1990 2020 2050 1990 2020 2050
High Income Upper-middle income Lower-middle income

16,000 16,000 16,000
14,000 14,000 14,000
12,000 12,000 12,000
10,000 10,000 10,000
8,000 8,000 8,000
6,000 6,000 6,000
4,000 4,000 4,000
2,000 2,000 2,000
0 0 0
1990 2020 2050 1990 2020 2050 1990 2020 2050
Low Income
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1990 2020 2050
Low Medium High
65
public transport depends on sufficient demand at each fruition the “high damage” and “pessimistic” scenarios
public transport stop, which is difficult to provide in low- alluded to in the previous chapter.
density neighbourhoods.
Globally, cities would occupy less land and host more
Well-designed and contextually supported densification and people under the high-density scenario, but as shown above
compact development are important for the various classes it would force the already high population density in low-
of cities discussed in this chapter and are in line with the income cities even higher. On the other hand, low-income
“optimistic” vision of the future outlined in Chapter 1. Cities countries would need five times the amount of land for
should therefore aim for sufficient density with adequate their cities in the low-density scenario (Figure 2.23). Low-
activity mix, while still providing important public amenities density development would require massive infrastructure
such as parks, squares, sports grounds and cultural venues, as investments to provide services and access to all the new
well as good transport infrastructure, to ensure connectivity neighbourhoods in low-income countries. So many cities
at the city and regional level.45 These public spaces play a would more than double in area under the low-density
vital role of making density work. The COVID-19 pandemic, scenario (Map 2.3) that it would be extremely difficult
for instance, has reinforced the value of quality public spaces, for governments in lower-income countries to finance
walkability, proximity and enhanced accessibility.46 the necessary infrastructure. The World Cities Report
2020 already outlined the challenge of financing urban
All of these preferences call for responsive urban and infrastructure in these countries. Still, the moderate- or
territorial planning that anticipates and effectively high-density scenario would imply a tripling or doubling of
addresses the demand for city expansion.47 They also call for city land in low-income countries.
the public sector to embrace a fundamental set of actions
that will ensure an orderly urban expansion (Box 2.7).48 In upper-middle- and high-income countries, the growth in
On the other hand, however, weaknesses in planning and city population is lower and cities are less dense. As a result,
institutional frameworks will perpetuate sprawl or lead to they can accommodate more people in their cities without
densification that results in overdevelopment and crowding any need to increase the amount of land. In some cities, the
(and its associated adverse health outcomes), gentrification, amount of city land could even shrink (Map 2.4), especially
poor air quality and noise pollution, among other problems, in Eastern Asia.
that make sustainable urban futures elusive and bring to
Box 2.7: Making room for future urban expansion: Minimal actions
In preparing rural areas in the periphery of growing cities for urban development, the public sector should undertake the following
fundamental actions:
i estimating the amount of land required for development during the next three decades and identify potential expansion areas;
ii protecting areas of environmental risk as well as a hierarchy of public open spaces from development;
iii laying out and securing the rights-of-way for a future arterial infrastructure grid that can carry public transport throughout the
projected expansion area; and
iv fostering the proper subdivision of lands—to rectangular or near-rectangular plots, where possible—by all suppliers of
commercial and residential lands, with special attention given to informal housing developers, so as to prevent rural lands
converted to residential use from becoming and remaining “slums, “and facilitating their transformation into regular residential
neighbourhoods.
Source: Angel et al, 2021.
66
Figure 2.23: City land in 1990, 2020 and in three scenarios in 2050 by income group and SDG region (city land in 2020=100)
Northern America Australia and New Zealand Europe

400 400 400
350 350 350
300 300 300
250 250 250
200 200 200
150 150 150
100 100 100
50 50 50
0 0 0
1990 2020 2050 1990 2020 2050 1990 2020 2050
Eastern and South-Eastern Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Northern Africa and Western Asia
400 400 400
350 350 350
300 300 300
250 250 250
200 200 200
150 150 150
100 100 100
50 50 50
0 0 0
1990 2020 2050 1990 2020 2050 1990 2020 2050
Central and Southern Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Oceania

400 400 400
350 350 350
300 300 300
250 250 250
200 200 200
150 150 150
100 100 100
50 50 50
0 0 0
1990 2020 2050 1990 2020 2050 1990 2020 2050
High Income Upper-middle income Lower-middle income

400 400 400
350 350 350
300 300 300
250 250 250
200 200 200
150 150 150
100 100 100
50 50 50
0 0 0
1990 2020 2050 1990 2020 2050 1990 2020 2050
Low Income World

400 400
350 350
300 300
250 250
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
1990 2020 2050 1990 2020 2050
Low Medium High Low Medium High
67
Map 2.3: Total area change per city in a low-density scenario, 2020–2050
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68
2.6. Concluding Remarks and Lessons for In terms of various population cohorts, the chapter has
Policy shown that the estimated share of children in rural areas
tends to be higher than in cities in low-income and lower-
This chapter, using harmonized data from the Degree of middle-income countries. This has been the trend over
Urbanization approach, shows that the global population the past decades, it presently is so, and projection to 2050
share in cities has been increasing continuously, but that the shows that it will remain that way. In high-income countries,
rate of increase has slowed down. About one-quarter of the however, this trend is changing from slightly higher share in
world population lived in cities (as defined by this approach) rural areas in 1950 to a lower share in rural areas in 2050.
in 1950 and this figure grew to almost half the population The chapter further records that young adults prefer city
in 2020. Going forward, a further increase to almost 60 per living across countries within all four income groups, while
cent in 2070 is projected. This essentially denotes that the only in high-income countries do people over 65 move to the
biggest increases in the share of people living in cities is rural areas.
already behind us.
The chapter has also vividly shown that concentration of city
The chapter has further illustrated that city population in population in the largest cities tends to be higher in more
low-income countries has been growing much faster than in more developed countries, when taking into account
in other countries due to much higher overall demographic the population size of a country. Further, it has illustrated
growth and a faster increase in the city population share that low-income countries have a higher share of their
from a low base. As a result of these dynamics, the amount city population and city land in small cities as compared to
of land covered by cities in low-income countries has grown higher-income countries.
much faster over the years. It doubled between 1975
and 2020 and is projected to do so again by 2070, a clear Given the rapid growth of city population in low-income
indication of the need for policymakers in these countries countries, the type of urban development will have a big
to focus on managing this spatial growth with sound policies impact on the shape of cities. For sustainable futures to be
that promote compact development as well as mitigate the realized in these places, policy measures that incentivize
negative social, economic and environmental impacts of compact and moderate- or high-density development—which
dispersed urban growth where it is recorded. In contrast, allow more people to live in cities, while using less land—
this chapter has also shown that city land in higher-income should be implemented. It is worth noting that significant
countries is projected to increase moderately by between 10 spatial expansion is inevitable in these countries—even
per cent and 50 per cent over the same period. under a higher-density development scenario, city land in
low-income countries is projected to double in the 2050s.
Population growth in cities is primarily driven by natural
growth, while rural-to-city migration has a smaller impact. Finally, this chapter has emphasized the need for urban
This is especially the case in low-income countries, where and territorial planning that anticipates and responsive
natural population growth explains two-thirds of city to effectively mitigates the negative social, economic and
population growth. environmental associated with this growth. The growth of city
land in low-income countries will require substantial efforts
As cities grow, they tend to expand spatially into surrounding in terms of both planning and infrastructure investments.
suburban and rural areas and to annex nearby towns. This Planning should be undertaken ahead of this expansion
chapter has illustrated that both of these factors contribute of cities to halt informality and ensure that there is policy
to the growth of city population, especially in high-income coherence at various scales guiding the needed investments.
countries where many cities are surrounded by large In the absence of this, low-density city development that will
suburban areas. In low-income countries, however, the see city land in low-income countries increase by a factor
chapter has shown that expansion and annexation adds of five. This sprawl, compounded by informality, will be
relatively little to city population growth, in part due to high extremely challenging to manage, inhibiting the pursuit and
overall population growth rates and a relative absence of realization of sustainable futures.
suburban areas.
69
Endnotes
1. EU, FAO, ILO, OECD, UN-Habitat and 14. Resource-rich coastal cities, urban 2008; Stecklov, 2008. 39. UN-Habitat, 2008.
the World Bank. atoll islands, densely populated 22. Menashe‐Oren and Bocquier, 2021. 40. UN-Habitat, 2008.
2. European Union et al, 2021. deltas and Arctic communities are 23. Jiang et al, 2021; Jones et al, 2020. 41. Ortiz-Moya, 2020; City of
3. National Research Council, 2003. most threatened (IPCC, 2022b); 24. Roberts, 2014. Kitakyushu and Institute for Global
4. GHS-POP ( https://ghsl.jrc. in some countries (e.g. China) the 25. UNICEF et al, 2020. Environmental Strategies, 2018.
ec.europa.eu/ghs_pop.php); expansion of cities in coastal and 26. European Commission and LSE, 42. UN-Habitat, 2020a.
Applying this to other global delta regions has been notable 2000. 43. UN-Habitat, 2019b.
population grids such as World Pop (McGranahan et al, 2007). 27. Rogers et al, 2002. 44. Angel et al, 2020.
will produce slightly different share, 15. UNDESA, 2019b. 28. Bloom et al, 2003. 45. UN-Habitat recommends a
but the overall pattern remains the 16. Fuller and Romer, 2014. 29. Urdal and Hoelscher, 2009. minimum of 15,000 inhabitants per
same. www.worldpop.org 17. UNDESA, 2019c. 30. UN-Habitat, 2008. square kilometre (UN-Habitat, 2014).
5. Dijkstra et al, 2021. 18. UNECOSOC, 2019; UN-Habitat, 31. Glaeser, 2014. 46. OECD, 2020b.
6. UNDESA, 2001. 2019a; Lincoln Institute of Land 32. First, the population of each city is 47. UN-Habitat, 2014.
7. Montgomery, 2008. Policy, 2016. expressed as a share of the total 48. Angel et al, 2021.
8. Lutz et al, 2018; UNDESA, 2019c; 19. UN-Habitat, 2018b. city population. Second, each of
Vollset et al, 2020. 20. This section only provides a global those shares is squared. Finally,
9. Bocquier and Costa, 2015; De Vries, overview. It is worth noting that not these squared shares are summed.
2013; Dyson, 2011; Zelinsky, 1971. all cities are experiencing population High numbers indicate high primacy.
10. UNDESA, 2001; Dyson, 2011; growth; some are experiencing 33. Henderson, 2000.
Stecklov, 2008; Davis, 1965. shrinkage. Subsequent sections 34. UN-Habitat, 2021a.
11. UN-Habitat, 2016a. of this chapter, Chapter 1 and 35. UNDESA, 2019b.
12. UN-Habitat, 2020a. previous UN-Habitat flagship reports 36. UN-Habitat, 2020a; UN-Habitat,
13. Brückner, 2012; Barrios, Annez, P., highlight this phenomenon. 2020b; UN-Habitat 2010.
R. Buckley and J. Kalarickal, 2010; 21. Farrell, 2017; Farrell, 2018; Farrell 37. Mudau et al, 2020.
Bertinelli and Strobl,2006; Fay and and Westlund, 2018; Menashe-Oren 38. Agyemang et al, 2019; Yiran et al,
Opal, 1999. and Stecklov, 2017; Montgomery, 2020; UN-Habitat, 2009.
70
Chapter 3:
Poverty and Inequality: Enduring
Features of an Urban Future?
71
Quick facts
1. Urban poverty and inequality are highly complex and multidimensional challenges whose
manifestation go beyond lack of income.
2. Without concerted action at all levels, poverty and inequality could become the face of the
future of cities.
3. Poverty is on the rise in close to one-third of the countries in Sub-Saharan African, and
most countries in the region are off-track in ending poverty by 2030.
4. The COVID-19 pandemic has reversed years of remarkable progress made in the fight
against poverty and has resulted in the emergence of newly poor people.
5. The level of urban poverty and inequality, coupled with the impacts of the COVID-19
pandemic are clear indicators that governments must act now to create the conditions that
nurture equitable urban futures.
Policy points
1. The vision of equitable urban futures will not be achieved unless cities and subnational
governments take bold actions to address the pervasive presence of urban poverty and
inequality.
2. Within the Decade of Action window (2020–2030), cities and subnational governments
should adopt a multidimensional approach to addressing poverty and inequality.
3. Investing in and extending infrastructure and services to deprived neighbourhoods is a

critical policy lever to address poverty and inequality
4. Supporting informal employment is critical for building inclusive urban futures.
5. Gender transformative approaches are crucial for building inclusive urban futures.
72
Urban poverty and inequality remain one of the most urban poor from forced evictions and exclusion of the poor
intractable and highly complex problems confronting cities. in urban planning processes.2 Cities have become arenas
The notoriously overcrowded slums in Mumbai, India; of contestation between different interests. Elites are
Nairobi and Rio de Janeiro; chronic homelessness in London; increasingly concentrating economic and political power in
and persistent concentrated poverty in Baltimore, US, all ways that manifest spatially. Thus, despite being incredible
send one clear message to policymakers: tackling urban generators of economic growth and well-being, cities are
poverty and inequality is one of the key priorities for building potentially poverty and inequality traps. More than ever,
inclusive and equitable urban futures. The SDGs and the increasing levels of poverty and inequality are becoming
New Urban Agenda are bold, ambitious, multi-stakeholder persistent trends in our towns and cities.3
frameworks that have been adopted to tackle poverty and
inequalities and develop cities in an inclusive manner. Both The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated existing
frameworks recognize the transformative power of cities in urban inequalities and amplified vulnerabilities, with
promoting equitable growth and prosperity.1 Specifically, disproportionate impacts on disadvantaged groups. The
target 11.1 of SDG 11 seeks to ensure access to affordable pandemic, along with the looming climate crisis, current
housing and basic services for all by 2030. The New Urban socioeconomic and political instabilities, and persistent
Agenda envisions cities as centres of equal opportunities, armed conflict, create significant challenges for building
where everyone enjoys productive and prosperous lives. inclusive and sustainable urban futures. The pandemic is
Both SDGs and the New Urban Agenda are underpinned by a vivid reminder that the vision of inclusive and equitable
the principle of leaving no one behind. Urban groups that are urban futures can be nurtured or suppressed in cities.
often marginalized include women, children, the homeless, Therefore, the key questions for policymakers are: what
migrants and refugees, minorities, indigenous people, will the future of cities look like with respect to urban
people with disabilities and those working in the informal poverty and inequality, and how will these realities play
economy. These groups are systemically excluded from the out in different geographical settings? Though the future
opportunities and benefits of urbanization based on gender, cannot be predicted with certainty, what happens in cities
age, race, ethnicity and other characteristics. today will determine the nature of poverty and inequality
for years to come.
The solutions to creating inclusive and equitable urban
futures are more likely to come from the decisions of local This chapter examines the outlook for poverty and
governments. Cities have several unique characteristics to inequality in the future of cities. As a prelude, the
attain the principles embedded in sustainable development. chapter introduces the multidimensional nature of urban
The process of urbanization has the potential to become poverty and inequality and how they manifest in different
a transformative force that creates opportunities for all. geographical settings, urbanization trends, shifting modes
Properly planned and well-managed urbanization processes of production, changing political economies, and local
can reduce poverty and inequality by creating employment and national policies. It analyses the current situation
opportunities as well as ensuring access to infrastructure with respect to urban poverty and inequality in different
and basic urban services, especially for the most vulnerable. geographical contexts and discusses how cities can respond
Conversely, poorly planned urbanization can be a key driver to the underlying challenges of poverty and inequality to
of and catalyst for urban poverty, inequality, social exclusion ensure that no one is left behind amid multiple crises. Urban
and marginalization. Without concerted action at all levels, poverty and inequality trends differ significantly between
poverty and inequity might become enduring features of the cities of developed and developing countries, which
future of cities. reflects the reality of a highly unequal urban world. The
chapter explores the future roles of cities and subnational
Despite the aspirations embedded in international governments in eradicating poverty and inequality and
development frameworks, cities are characterized by discusses how slums and informal settlements can act
both visible and invisible divides that often trigger various as entry points for place-based interventions to build
forms of social, economic and political exclusion. The resilience. Finally, the chapter examines transformative
Kuala Lumpur Declaration on Cities 2030 rekindled these approaches for addressing poverty and systemic inequalities
concerns by highlighting key challenges facing our cities. as a basis for sustainable and inclusive urban futures. These
These include inequitable access to urban services and approaches will help determine which of the scenarios of
economic opportunities, insufficient protection of the urban futures discussed in Chapter 1 will come to pass.
73
3.1. Urban Poverty and Inequality: A urban inhabitants experience. The multidimensional
Multidimensional Perspective perspective to urban poverty is important as it informs the
design of policy interventions to enhance human well-being
Urban poverty and inequality are some of the most persistent in other facets rather than just income. For example, incomes
problems confronting cities today and will likely continue to for urban households might appear high until factoring in
do so for many years to come without significant intervention. the deprivation of basic services (housing, water, sanitation,
These deprivations presently occur at a larger scale in energy), which places additional economic burden on
cities due in part to the fact that majority of the world’s households, especially in slums and informal settlements
population resides in urban areas. The COVID-19 pandemic where the majority of the poor live.
has exacerbated these challenges, creating more challenges
for cities and subnational governments. Figures 3.1 and 3.2
Urban poverty and inequality
represent the multiple dimensions of urban poverty and
are some of the most persistent
inequality, respectively, as they manifest in cities.
problems confronting cities today
3.1.1. The complexity and multidimensionality of In cities of developing regions, slums and informal settlements
urban poverty are the most enduring faces of poverty.4 Residents of slums
As shown in Figure 3.1, urban poverty is complex and and informal settlements experience one or more of the
multidimensional. Income-based measures of urban poverty following deprivations: lack of access to improved water and
are inadequate as they do not account for its multiple sanitation facilities; overcrowded and precarious housing
dimensions. Relying entirely on income-based indicators is conditions and location; voicelessness and powerlessness in
overly simplistic because it implies that the income required political systems and governance processes; and lack of tenure
to address poverty is the same in every geographical context. security (Figure 3.1).5 These deprivations are also amplified
This view does not reflect the multiple deprivations that by what could be called a “poverty of urban planning,” or
Figure 3.1: Multidimensional nature of urban poverty
74
approaches to the built environment that do not improve the 3.1.2. The multiple faces of urban inequalities
livelihoods of the poor. For instance, in the Pakistani cities of Urban poverty and inequality are interrelated in different
Karachi and Lahore public funds have been diverted to large- ways. Figure 3.2 shows that urban inequality is also
scale infrastructure projects to the detriment of smaller- multidimensional and highly complex. Like poverty, urban
scale, pro-poor development proposals.6 inequality has economic, social and spatial manifestations.
Urban inequality is marked by differential access to income
The urban poor living in slums are heterogenous groups with and wealth, urban services and infrastructure, technology,
different levels of vulnerability based on gender, age, ethnicity, public health, social protection, education, social protection,
race, household structure, migration status and other public spaces, decision-making structures and environmental
intersectional factors. Urban poverty has social, economic, burdens, among others.
environmental and spatial dimensions, and its manifestation
differs from place to place. The various dimensions shown in The current models of urban development in cities of
Figure 3.1 are not isolated; they interact and reinforce each both developed and developing regions are driven by
other to create, recreate and entrench urban poverty. This massive capital accumulation, hyper-commodification and
conceptualization allows us to see urban poverty as entailing privatization of urban spaces, thereby escalating urban
a web of deprivation, a crisscrossing of circumstances that inequalities.7 As shown in Figure 3.2, the “new urban
create conditions trapping millions in zones of concentrated economy” represented by these new modes of production
deprivation with limited opportunities for upward social produce and reproduce equalities. The restrictive housing
mobility. Without collective action, the multiple dimensions policies prevalent in cities today generate material and
of urban poverty could become more complicated and symbolic conditions that marginalize and exclude certain
generate cumulative vulnerabilities and deprivations that groups of the urban population. Moreover, the consumer-
will be difficult to reverse or rectify. oriented urban economy in cities has created diverse
Figure 3.2: Complex web of multidimensional urban inequalities: drivers and outcomes
75
Poverty and Inequality: Enduring Features of an Urban Future?
geographies of urban inequalities in cities of developed and which often lead to added layers of new vulnerabilities.
developing countries, albeit at different scales. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic has exposed some
of the hidden pockets of poverty and inequality in cities
The unequal production and consumption of urban spaces of both developed and developing countries; deepened
results in significant disadvantage being concentrated in already existing disparities; and reversed declines in global
certain places rather than others. For example, the new urban poverty, which is indicative of the pessimistic scenario of
economy promotes the emergence of privatized residential urban futures discussed in Chapter 1. These events create
enclaves where the rich enjoy superior infrastructure and additional challenges for cities and subnational governments
services while the urban poor are relegated to deprived as they struggle to build equitable, inclusive and sustainable
neighbourhoods reliant on underfunded public goods. These urban futures under conditions of high uncertainty.
deprived neighbourhoods have poor quality infrastructure
and municipal services, and their residents bear the brunt
of education disparities, health disparities, socioeconomic 3.2. Trends in Poverty and Inequality:
and political exclusion, territorial stigmatization and Implications for Urban Futures
discrimination.8 The resulting patterns are disjointed,
fragmentated and unsustainable urban geographies of This section discusses the current trends on urban poverty
inequality and human suffering where a society of wealthy and inequality and implications for inclusive and equitable
islands are surrounded by a sea of poverty. A prime example urban futures. The first part gives a global overview on poverty
is the Eko Atlantic City in Nigeria—a private city being built and inequality trends while the second part analyses trends
in Lagos adjacent to the highly deprived and impoverished at the local level in both developed and developing regions.
Makoko slum.9 In cities of developed countries, spatial
segregation of social groups results in differential access to 3.2.1. A global overview of poverty trends
employment opportunities, healthcare and social services, Over the past several decades before the COVID-19
often along racial or ethnic lines. pandemic, there has been steady progress in the fight against
extreme income poverty globally. Official estimates suggest
The various dimensions of urban poverty and inequality that the number of people living in extreme poverty (living
explained above are not new; they have always been a on less than US$1.90/day) has been declining; between
pervasive feature of cities. However, poverty and inequality 1990 and 2015, close to 1.2 billion people were pulled out
are created, recreated and amplified based on trends in of extreme poverty.10 By 2018, three years after the adoption
the global economy and external shocks and stresses, of the SDGs, the proportion of people living in extreme
Figure 3.3: Extreme poverty rates by region in a no COVID-19 scenario
Source: Data generated from Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, 2022.
76
Homeless man in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil © Shutterstock
poverty had decreased from 10 to 8.6 per cent. Based on poverty rate before the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019 was
historic trends, extreme poverty was projected to decline to just under 12 per cent of the population (358 million) and
6 per cent by 2030,11 which is still above the SDG target of in low-income countries it was 45 per cent (329 million).13
less than 3 per cent of the population. Before COVID-19, the
number of people living in extreme poverty was expected to Figure 3.3. shows poverty trends by regions. Though poverty
decline; falling to 672 million by 2030 and to just over 400 has been declining in Africa since 2015, the continent still
million by 2050.12 faces significant challenges in meeting the SDG target of
eradicating poverty in all its forms. Many African countries
There are regional variations in global poverty dynamics. face serious challenges due to fragile economic and political
Currently, more than 90 per cent of the poor live in low- circumstances like armed conflicts and dependency on
income and middle-income countries. High-income countries commodity exports. These conditions are compounded by
have already met the SDG target of reducing extreme poverty governments’ inability to provide adequate infrastructure,
to less than 3 per cent of the population, though many services and employment to pull people out of poverty.
upper-middle-income countries are yet to meet the target Other regions—Europe, Asia, Oceania, Northern America,
at the country level. In lower-middle-income countries the and Latin America and the Caribbean—have been doing
Figure 3.4: Urban population of multidimensionally poor (millions)
Source: UNDP and Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative, 2020.
77
relatively well under the no COVID-19 scenario. In Northern trajectories have greatly influenced global inequality.23
America, Europe and Oceania, effective programmes and However, some regions still record high levels of income
egalitarian policies enable governments to provide basic inequality. For instance, Latin America and the Caribbean is
infrastructure and services, including targeting the poor. one of the most unequal regions in the world, where income
and wealth is concentrated in the richest top 10 per cent
3.2.2. The unfinished business in the fight against of individuals. Countries like Brazil, Honduras, Colombia,
global poverty Panama and Guatemala remain at the top of regional and
The fight against poverty is part of the unfinished business global inequality rankings.24 Brazil’s inequality statistics are
of the global development agenda. Current projections staggering; the country’s six richest men control as much
suggest that the number of people living in extreme poverty wealth as the bottom half of the population. Oxfam notes
will remain above 600 million in 2030, resulting in a global that current reduction rates, it will take 75 years for Brazil
poverty rate of 7.4 per cent.14 Multidimensional poverty in to reach the current level of income equality in the UK and
developing countries remains high. Research conducted in almost 60 years to meet that of Spain.25
107 developing countries revealed that 1.3 billion people15
or 22 per cent of the population are multidimensionally
poor.16 Current estimates suggest that about 84.3 per cent Latin America and the Caribbean
of the multidimensionally poor live in Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the most unequal
(556 million) and Southern Asia (532 million), while about regions in the world
67 per cent are in middle-income countries. About 200
million of the 1.3 billion multidimensionally poor people Inequalities between developed and developing regions
reside in urban areas17 with the regional breakdown shown remain large. For example, the average income of people
in Figure 3.4. living in North America is 16 times higher than Sub-Saharan
Africa.26 South Africa remains one of the most unequal
The COVID-19 pandemic is reversing development gains countries in the world, where the poorest 40 per cent have
made in the fight against global poverty. The pandemic annual incomes of less than US$1,000 per person, while the
has increased poverty and made achieving the SDGs even richest 10 per cent earn more than US$39,000 per person—
more urgent. Projections suggest that globally, COVID-19 which is nearly 40 times higher than those at the bottom 40
likely pushed between 88 and 115 million people into per cent.27 The top 10 per cent in South Africa hold 80.6 per
extreme poverty in 2020.18 The pandemic has resulted in cent of all financial assets; the rates in Botswana and Namibia
the emergence of “newly poor” people—that is, those who are 61.2 per cent and 65.5 per cent, respectively.28 Such
would have exited poverty in the absence of COVID-19 but alarming levels of income inequality result from massive
are now projected to remain poor as well as those projected wealth gaps between the rich and the poor. This disparity has
to fall into poverty because of the pandemic.19 In 2020, been amplified by the economic impacts of the COVID-19
between 119 and 124 million people were projected to enter pandemic, which could further undermine the prospects for
the global ranks of the new poor; this number was projected inclusive and equitable growth, leading to the high damage
to rise to between 143 and 163 million in 2021.20 Many or pessimistic scenarios outlined in Chapter 1. Despite the
of the new poor will be living in urban areas21; presenting existence of universal welfare systems and social protection
an additional burden for cities and subnational governments systems, inequality in developed regions, particularly in
that are already overwhelmed. Northern America and Oceania, has been increasing, with
the rich getting richer while the socioeconomic progress of
the poor remains limited.29 In the US, unequal distribution
3.3. A Global Snapshot of Inequality Trends of income and wealth has reached astronomical levels; where
over 20 per cent of the country’s wealth belongs to the top
Over the last decade there has been steady progress in 1 per cent.30
reducing global inequality. The Gini index fell in 38 out of 84
countries between 2010 and 2017.22 Income gaps between In addition to income inequalities, there are also gaps in
countries have also improved in the past 25 years, suggesting access to basic services and opportunities. The ongoing global
that average incomes in developing countries are increasing housing affordability crisis means that slums and informal
at a faster rate. Very big economies like China and India have settlements are the only housing option for millions of low-
a large share of the world’s population and their development income households in developing countries. Currently, about
78
1.6 billion people or over 20 per cent of the global population 3.4. Urban Poverty in Developing Regions:
live in inadequate, crowded and unsafe housing. Another two Trends and Challenges for the Future
billion people are expected to be living in slums in the next 30 of Cities
years, which represents roughly 183,000 people each day.31
More than 90 per cent of urban residents living in slums are As the world becomes increasingly urbanized, poverty is
located in poor countries.32 Although slums and informal shifting from rural areas to towns and cities—a phenomenon
settlements are characteristics of cities in low- and middle- described as the “urbanization of poverty.” Urban areas,
income countries, some cities in developed countries are also especially those in developing countries, are experiencing
experiencing inequalities in housing. London, for example, a remarkable increase in the number of people living in
has experienced an appalling surge in homelessness because extreme income poverty, with vulnerable groups bearing
of restrictive urban housing markets. the brunt. Figure 3.5 shows the proportion of people living
in extreme poverty in urban areas of selected Sub-Saharan
Globally, there is a growing divide in access to basic services. African countries.
Developing countries have larger proportions of their
populations with limited access to basic water and sanitation Since 2016, South Sudan, Central African Republic,
as shown in Chapter 1. About 70 per cent of the urban Democratic Republic of the Congo and Eritrea have seen more
population in developing countries is currently underserved than 20 per cent of their urban population living in extreme
by municipal services. About half of the population in 15 poverty. These high rates are projected to remain so in 2030,
major cities lack access to piped water while 64 per cent thereby making the target of eradicating extreme poverty in
rely on unsafely managed sanitation, which exposes them all its forms unattainable. Current estimates suggest that by
to various health and environmental hazards.33 In some of 2030, over 60 per cent of those living in extreme poverty will
the poorest countries, the difference in access to drinking be in fragile states.36 Urban poverty in South Sudan, Central
water between the richest and the poorest households in African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo is
urban areas was 59 percentage points in 2017.34 Between exacerbated by social, economic, political and environmental
2000 and 2017, urban population growth exceeded the total fragility coupled with weak institutions to deliver public
number of people gaining at least basic sanitation services services such as health, education, water and sanitation
in Sub-Saharan and Oceania.35 The above trends manifest and social protection capable of eradicating poverty. Indeed,
spatially in cities of both developing and developing regions. the 2021 Fragile States Index for South Sudan, Democratic
Figure 3.5: Percentage of urban population living in extreme poverty in selected Sub-Saharan African countries (2016–2030)
Source: World Data Lab, 2022
79
Republic of the Congo and Central African Republic are and targeted support for vulnerable households to alleviate
109.4, 108.4 and 107.0, respectively. All three countries are persistent poverty.41 This has resulted in more than 800
ranked in the top 10 of the world’s most fragile states.37 million people being lifted out of poverty. Figure 3.6
shows the proportion of the urban population living in
The current trends show that most countries in Sub- extreme poverty in selected Asian countries. Current trends
Saharan Africa are off-track in achieving the goal of ending demonstrate that most countries in Asia are on track to
poverty by 2030. The region has the highest incidence of end poverty by 2030, while some may fail to achieve this
urban poverty globally with about 23 per cent of the urban goal. For example, in Southern Asia, Afghanistan may fail to
population living below the international poverty line and achieve SDG 1 targets because of growing socioeconomic
29 per cent experiencing multidimensional poverty.38 and political fragilities, which undermine the fight against
A recent study of 119 countries (representing 45 per extreme income poverty.
cent of the world’s population) reveals that the rate of
multidimensional urban poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa is Despite the economic gains and low levels of income
11 times higher than in Latin America and the Caribbean.39 related urban poverty in Asia, there are significant regional
Indeed, poverty is on the rise in close to one-third of the variations. In Japan for instance, spatial concentration
countries in Sub-Saharan African.40 Unless governments at of poverty in specific areas has deepened in the megacity
all levels take concerted measures to act now, poverty will regions of Tokyo and Osaka.42 This is the situation in most
become endemic features of cities for several years to come megacities in South Asia, such as Dhaka, Bangladesh, where
in Sub-Saharan Africa. the spatial concentration of deprivation is embedded in the
daily lives of the urban poor.
In Asia, in the last two decades, China and India experienced
rapid economic growth and urbanization, which led to a In Latin America and the Caribbean, the proportion of
massive reduction in the number of people living in poverty. urban population living in extreme poverty is relatively
Over the years, China’s poverty reduction efforts have low; with projections under 5 per cent from 2016 to 2030
largely focused on broad-based economic transformation (Figure 3.7). While Latin America countries have become
Figure 3.6: Proportion of urban population living in extreme poverty in selected Asian countries (2016–2030)
Source: World Data Lab, 2022.
80
Figure 3.7: Percentage of urban population living in extreme poverty in selected Latin American and Caribbean countries
(2016–2030)
Source: World Data Lab, 2022.
more egalitarian over the last two decades, the last seven and other urban services. Consequently, there are major gaps
years have witnessed a gradual increase in poverty and the in infrastructure spending. The region will need to increase
slowing down in the reduction of inequality. The COVID-19 infrastructure spending from 3 to 5 per cent of GDP—about
pandemic has amplified urban poverty in most Latin US$180 billion a year—to bridge the gap. Latin American
American cities. In Bogotá, Colombia, urban poverty rates countries spend a smaller share of GDP on infrastructure than
increased to 26 per cent in 2020 up from 15 per cent in other regions, except for Sub-Saharan Africa.45
2019.43 The exacerbation of urban poverty could cast a dark
shadow on the achievement of SDG targets on poverty in 3.4.1. Slums and informal settlements: face of
the absence of decisive policy interventions. The reduction poverty in the future of cities
in the Gini coefficient dropped from an average of 1.1 per As the housing affordability crisis grows, the urban poor resort
cent per year from 2002–2014 to 0.5 per cent per year from to living in slums and informal settlements. Over 1 billion
2014–2019.44 This slowdown occurred within the context people globally reside in slums and informal settlements
of economic stagnation, huge public debt, public discontent and are subjected to the worst forms of deprivation and
and demands for social justice, all of which were further marginalization.46 Slums and informal settlements are
exacerbated by the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. prevalent in Eastern, South-Eastern, Central and Southern
Asia and in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Sub–Saharan Africa, 56
Despite the made significant strides made over the past per cent of the region’s urban population live in informal
decades, cities in Latin America and the Caribbean are still settlements, which is far greater than the average of other
struggling to meet the infrastructure needs of their ever- developing regions.47
growing population. Sluggish growth over the past few years
has negatively affected investment in housing, water, sanitation The main drivers of slum growth in developing countries
include rapid urbanization, ineffective planning, lack of
affordable housing options for low-income households and
cities in Latin America and the poverty. Estimates demonstrate that a 1 per cent increase
Caribbean are still struggling to meet in urban population growth will increase the incidence of
the infrastructure needs of their ever- slums in Africa and Asia by 2.3 per cent and 5.3 per cent,
growing population respectively.48 These dynamics demonstrate that urbanization
81
Poor family in, Dhaka, Bangladesh © Shutterstock
in African and Asian cities continues to occur in contexts In developing country cities, refugees and migrants in
characterized by unplanned urbanization, appalling urban informal settlements experience severe social, economic and
poverty, weak governance structures and incoherent urban environmental challenges, all of which worsened during the
planning and housing policies. If current trends persist, the COVID-19 crisis.51 While COVID-19 has made the challenges
future of cities in developing regions will be accompanied in slums more visible, they are a result of perpetual exclusion
by “mega slums” that will be vastly undeserved and whose from urban services, reflected in acute health inequalities
residents will endure multiple deprivations, which will that were prevalent before the pandemic. For equitable urban
negatively impact on socioeconomic mobility. futures, cities should prioritize extending basic infrastructure
and services to slums and informal settlements. Inaction will
Furthermore, slums and informal settlements perennially be detrimental to the future of cities: slums and informal
suffer from chronic underinvestment in infrastructure settlements will continue to turn into dense pockets of
and basic services, which entrenches poverty and limits poverty and loci of cumulative vulnerabilities that will haunt
opportunities. For the millions of people living in slums the urban poor for decades. This will create a downward
and informal settlements, access to infrastructure and basic spiral of so-called “slumification,”52 making it even more
urban services remains elusive, without which a better urban difficult for marginalized groups to escape poverty and
future will be difficult to achieve. Inadequate access to water thereby further entrenching the pessimistic scenario of
and sanitation is one of the key drivers of multidimensional urban futures described in Chapter 1.
poverty in slums, which has a greater impact particularly for
women and children.49 Slum dwellers also endure poor quality Tenure insecurity in slums and informal settlements
and overcrowded housing often built in environmentally exposes households to forced evictions and displacements.
hazardous locations, insecure tenure and risk of evictions, The pandemic has amplified the urgency of strengthening
poor health, unemployment, food insecurity, unemployment, tenure security in slums and informal settlements as
and stigmatization.50 All these factors make slum dwellers one of the catalysts for equitable urban futures. Forced
highly vulnerable to external shocks and stresses like the evictions and displacements disrupt livelihoods and
current COVID-19 pandemic. social networks, which is linked to increased poverty and
inequality. As we move into the future, strengthening
tenure security in slums and informal settlements provides
slums and informal settlements the rights that enable access to urban infrastructure and
perennially suffer from chronic services.53 Access to secure land enables slum dwellers
underinvestment in infrastructure to undertake home improvements and invest in their
and basic services, which entrenches communities, which is often a path out of poverty for
poverty and limits opportunities poor households.54 These measures are a response to the
82
clarion call of the New Urban Agenda to promote equally 3.4.3. Precarious urban livelihoods and the future
the shared opportunities and benefits that urbanization of cities
can offer and that enable all inhabitants, whether living Globally, the urban poor earn their livelihoods from the
in formal or informal settlements, to live decent and informal sector. Informal sector workers constitute 61 per
dignified lives and achieve their full human potential. cent of all workers, which translates to 2 billion workers
Without concerted efforts at all levels, residents of slums worldwide.58 In developing countries, slum dwellers,
and informal settlements will always be left behind and migrants, refugees and other vulnerable groups work in the
endure the dire consequences of future shocks, especially informal economy, earning highly irregular incomes that are
on their livelihoods. vulnerable to shocks. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted
livelihoods of an estimated 1.6 billion people, or 80 per
3.4.2. The tenuous nature of self-provisioning and cent of those in the informal sector.59 The resultant losses
the burden of poverty penalty in working hours in 2020 worldwide were about four times
Without access to urban services, the poor resort to self- higher than the 2007–2008 global financial crisis with higher
provision using alternative arrangements, which can be losses for women, youth and low-skilled workers.60 Without
exploitative and thereby aggravate their already precarious access to any form of social protection, the pandemic has
condition.55 Self-provision imposes crippling burdens aggravated the economic vulnerability of informal sector
for poor households residing in slums and informal workers. For example, in the favelas of Rio de Janeiro
settlements. Those that struggle to pay often spend the where residents typically make less than US$5 a day, over
most for the same basic services. For example, residents 70 per cent of households reported an income decline.61 In
of Mukuru, an informal settlement in Nairobi, bear the Khulna, Bangladesh, 70 per cent of slum dwellers had no
brunt of the “poverty penalty.” They pay more than four savings when the pandemic started, which aggravated their
times more for drinking water compared to those that live economic insecurity once their livelihoods were disrupted.62
in formal neighbourhoods of the same city.56 The urban
poor in Nairobi’s slums pay a much higher price for rental The COVID-19 pandemic also amplified the vulnerability
housing, water, electricity and other basic goods and of informal transport sector workers, particularly minibus
services compared to middle- and higher-income residents operators in paratransit systems. A majority of the minibus
in the city. Consequently, they have little income left for operators and motor-taxi companies in Douala, Cameroon,
other necessities. This scenario traps families in a cycle and Dakar, Senegal, discontinued service, resulting in large
of poverty and leads to intergenerational transmission of income losses.63 Chapter 4 clearly notes that in the absence
poverty, a trend that is increasingly evident in slums of of social protection programmes, informal sector workers
various developing country cities.57 will struggle to rebuild their livelihoods, which is detrimental
to the collective vision of equitable urban futures.
Without access to urban services, As we move into the future, recognizing and addressing the
the poor resort to self-provision lack of social safety nets or social assistance for the informal
using alternative arrangements, workforce is essential for tackling the current pandemic and
which can be exploitative for cities to be more economically resilient to future crises.64
Transforming cities globally for future resilience, inclusion
The double jeopardy of inadequate services coupled with high and economic sustainability is more urgent than at any
fees must be tackled decisively to break the systemic barriers time in human history. The path to equitable urban futures
that continue to lock the urban poor in situations of endemic is impossible without building the resilience of informal
precarity and downward social mobility. The negative effects sector workers to economic shocks. If governments fail to
of self-provisioning can undermine economic prosperity of act decisively, informal workers will be trapped in precarious
the entire city. To make matters worse, cities in developing conditions with limited prospects for economic mobility.
regions are bedevilled by scarce financial resources and
limited planning capacity. At the same time, these struggling 3.4.4. Climate-related vulnerabilities and impacts
cities are under tremendous pressure to meet the urgent on the urban poor
needs of their ever-growing populations while avoiding Despite negative effects of climate change on urban
decisions that lead to unstainable urbanization. infrastructure and livelihoods in rapidly growing cities as
shown in Chapter 5, some urban leaders continue to turn
83
a blind eye to these realities.65 Current projections indicate future shocks.69 If cities and subnational governments fail
that a 2°C increase in global temperature in 2050 will expose to prioritize climate resilience for all, then the urban poor,
2.7 billion people, or 29 per cent of the global population, especially those living in slums, will continue to bear the
to moderate or high climate-related risks, with 91 to 98 per brunt of climate-related vulnerabilities that will undermine
cent of the exposed and vulnerable population living in Asia their well-being.
and Africa respectively.66 Sea-level rises, and storm surges
often adversely affect the poor and those living in vulnerable 3.4.5. COVID-19 amplified urban vulnerabilities and
communities. For example, in Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam, the future of cities
85 per cent of the urban poor areas may be exposed to flood The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated multiple
risk by 2050.67 These risks are present in most low-lying deprivations and exposed structural fragilities that
coastal cities in developing countries. characterize cities in developing regions (Figure 3.8). The
pandemic further exposed the stark urban services divide,
The most vulnerable populations are migrants, refugees, particularly in cities of developing countries where there
women, the elderly and others who live in overcrowded are limited egalitarian policies on service delivery.70 The
and risk-prone informal settlements. These populations pandemic has inflicted unprecedented suffering on already
disproportionately bear the burden of environmental risks marginalized urban populations—women, children, people
because of their physical, social and economic vulnerability.68 living with disabilities, indigenous people and the homeless,
Not only does climate change make it difficult for people to among others.71 These groups usually have limited access to
escape poverty, but it also creates create a vicious cycle basic services and precarious sources of livelihood, which
of deprivation that could be difficult to reverse; thereby make them highly susceptible to shocks. The pandemic also
trapping the poor in the high damage or disastrous scenario exposed hidden pockets of urban poverty and created a class
of urban futures. When hit by climate related shocks, the of newly poor urban dwellers, as noted earlier.
urban poor suffer relatively greater losses in terms of their
lives and livelihoods. Such differential impacts further The COVID-19 pandemic is also reinforcing pre-existing
amplify existing inequalities and undermine the capacities gender inequalities due to differentiated access to public
of people to withstand, cope, adapt and recover from services, vulnerability of informal sector jobs and the
Figure 3.8. COVID-19 exacerbates pre-existing urban vulnerabilities
84
additional responsibility of household and childcare imposed neighbourhoods or suburban municipalities, where
on women. Without significant policy and programmatic opportunities, good quality services and infrastructure
support, these vulnerable groups will struggle to bounce are guaranteed. If governments fail to promote equitable
back and will be trapped in endemic precarity with limited access to urban infrastructure and services, urban poverty
prospects of upward social mobility. Cities have found will become entrenched while disproportionately affecting
themselves in an unprepared and difficult situation; they specific groups of urban populations.
face unprecedented social, economic and health problems
that must be urgently tackled if the vision of inclusive and In Europe, countries such as Austria, Belgium, Demark,
equitable urban futures is to become a reality. Germany and the Netherlands, have witnessed higher
poverty rates in cities than in rural areas over the years.77
Data from the European Union Statistics on Income and
3.5. Urban Poverty in Developed Regions: Living Conditions reveal that 22.5 per cent of the population
Implications for Urban Futures in the region were at risk of poverty and deprivation in
2017.78 In Sydney, there are pockets of disadvantage
While cities in developing countries experience the most concentrated in the western and southwestern suburbs
widespread effects of urban poverty, cities in developed where the manifestation of urban poverty has gender and
countries are not immune. For example, London has racial dimensions.79 Currently, the proportion of Aboriginal
seen a sharp rise in homelessness because of increasingly people on a low income in Sydney is 21.1 per cent, compared
unaffordable housing prices.72 In the US, deprived to 10.2 per cent of non-Aboriginal people.
neighbourhoods in older cities are characterized by economic
marginalization, social problems and underinvestment in Despite high economic growth in cities of developed
key municipal infrastructure and services. In New York countries, minority groups, migrants, refugees, the homeless
City, the urban poor, especially minorities, live in congested and indigenous peoples, among others, experience structural
neighbourhoods and overcrowded housing stock, often barriers that perpetuate their marginalization. Failure to
in multi-generational families.73 There are also worrying address these challenges will create conditions for cumulative
trends of urban services deprivation in Philadelphia, deprivations that will lead to a vicious cycle of urban poverty
Baltimore and Detroit, where the urban poor have faced for decades. In worst case scenarios, intergenerational
mass water shutoffs in recent years. The most affected are poverty could worsen, as families struggle to break barriers
thousands of high-risk and at-risk households clustered in that undermine their economic mobility. Failure to prioritize
pockets of “water poverty,” disabled individuals, blacks and the needs of minorities and other vulnerable populations in
Hispanics.74 If water rates increase at projected amounts, developed country cities could forestall the drive towards
more than 35 per cent of US households will struggle to inclusive and equitable urban futures.
pay their water bills.75 The exorbitant water bills not only
expose the poor to shutoffs but affects their ability to meet
other basic needs. 3.6. Urban Inequalities in Developing
Regions: Matters Arising for Urban
Futures
The pandemic has derailed the
European Union’s target of lifting at The opportunities associated with urbanization in cities of
least 20 million people out of poverty developing regions are not equally shared. Increasing levels
by 2020 of inequality are becoming pervasive in these cities, which
is where most of the population growth will occur over the
The pandemic has derailed the European Union’s target of next 30 years.80 Despite a steady decrease in extreme poverty,
lifting at least 20 million people out of poverty by 2020.76 inequality within cities has generally been growing. Cities of
The manifestation of urban poverty in the US has a strong developing regions experience the highest levels of inequality,
class and racial character. It is predominantly black and especially in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa.81
other minority dominated neighbourhoods that endure
deprivations together with high rates of crime, drug addiction In addition to high levels of income inequality, millions of
and continued deterioration of physical infrastructure. In people in Latin American cities face spatial disparities and
contrast, the privileged elites reside in relatively wealthy social segregation, which manifests through fragmentation
85
of social services: the wealthy, the middle class and the Sub-Saharan Africa have no access to safe water sources.87
poor do not share the same facilities and amenities.82 If not Currently, only 44 per cent of all Sub-Saharan Africa’s urban
addressed, these alarming levels of inequality will create residents have access to basic sanitation services.88 In Sub-
vicious circles that will be harder to reverse. Income and Saharan Africa, rich households in urban area are 329 per
opportunities will be concentrated in the hands of the few cent more likely to have access to improved water sources
urban elites, while the poorest bear the brunt of unequal and 227 per cent more likely to have access to improved
income distribution. sanitation facilities compared to poor households.89 This
urban services divide is more pronounced in secondary
Sub-Saharan Africa is second after Latin America with respect cities, and this is expected to widen as these cities are often
to income inequality in cities. Close to three-quarters of the neglected in public infrastructure investment.90
cities in Sub-Saharan Africa have high levels of inequality
as indicated by Gini coefficients exceeding 0.4, with South Those living in slums and informal settlements are
African cities being the most unequal in the region.83 The disproportionately affected by this urban services divide;
astronomical levels of income inequality in Latin America they bear the brunt of disease outbreaks, economic shocks
and Sub-Saharan Africa reflect institutional and structural and environmental risks. Studies have demonstrated that
failures in the drive towards more equitable and just cities. disparities in accessing essential infrastructure and urban
services can have greater impact on lives, livelihoods and
long-term prospects compared with differences in earnings.91
Cities in Asia have the lowest In developing country cities, relatively well-off communities
levels of income inequality are better served with core infrastructure and services
among developing regions compared to poor communities, thus creating a huge urban
services divide (Figures 3.9 and 3.10).92
Cities in Asia have the lowest levels of income inequality
among developing regions. There are significant regional Figure 3.9 demonstrates a sharp contrast between better-
variations in urban inequalities, with the largest disparities served and underserved urban groups. While the urban
between basic and safely managed water services for urban services divide creates more opportunities for better served
populations in Central and Southern Asia.84 Despite being groups, it places higher burdens for poor communities in
the 12th richest city in the world, Mumbai is marked by terms of cost, time and ill health, limiting their opportunities
extreme disparities where the city’s wealth is concentrated for prosperity. If the current urban services divide is not
in the hands of the few. People in the poorest districts addressed, the long-term impacts on the future of cities will
of Mumbai earn only 25 per cent of what people in the be dire, as it creates a vicious cycle of deprivation that will be
wealthiest districts earn.85 Chinese cities are characterized hard to escape for millions of the urban poor.
by increasing residential segregation because of the hukou
household registration system. High income groups in As indicated in Figure 3.10, the cumulative costs of this
Beijing and Shanghai reside in privatized neighbourhoods, stark urban services divide are huge: worsening inequalities,
while rural migrants congregate in urban villages and worker lagging productivity and further environmental damage.
enclaves, sometimes with limited access to opportunities More than 1.2 billion urban residents are underserved
and social amenities. Failure to address these dimensions of worldwide, which represents two out of every three city
inequalities could aggravate the exclusion and marginalization dwellers in low-income countries.93 This divide poses a major
of the poor, with dire consequences for equitable urban challenge to attaining inclusive, sustainable and equitable
futures. urban futures in developing regions. Unequal access to
infrastructure and services perpetuates a vicious cycle that
3.6.1. The urban service divide and its implications becomes increasingly difficult to escape. The urban services
for urban futures divide encumbers cities in ways that weaken their economic
The urban services divide in cities of developing countries is a vitality.94 Without drastic and purposeful change, the rapidly
manifestation of urban inequalities.86 Unequal access to high- expanding cities of developing regions will find it hard to
quality, reliable and affordable essential infrastructure and escape this trajectory. Therefore, equitable access to urban
services often results in poor health, inflicts environmental services is a key lever for achieving inclusive and equitable
damage and locks people in cycles of poverty for generations. urban futures and delivering on the optimistic scenario
In absolute numbers, 63 million people in urban areas in described in Chapter 1.
86
Figure 3.9: The differential consequences of the urban services divide on the poor
Secure housing with private

and safely managed
sanitation— lives in decent
housing with access to
services and opportunities,
with few concerns about
familyy health and safetyy
Opportunities (for productivity, prosperity, better health)
Constant, reliable Better-

power—has lighting, served
heating, and cooling, and
does not worry about
p
interruptions to work
Access to public
transit or a private
vehicle—has a short,
swift, and affordable
commute
Reliable,
affordable water
access—wakes at a
reasonable time,
knowing there is Crowded slum with shared
water in the taps
on-site sanitation—lives in
Intermittent power or poor-quality housing with
no access to power— inadequate services, risk of
must use unhealthy, eviction, flooding and other
No access to affordable inadequate, or expensive
public transit or private disasters, and constant concern
methods for lighting, about family health and safety
vehicles—walks or cooking, and heating,
commutes long distances
Under-
which interrupts work served
in congestion, paying
No indoor water—
wakes early to queue at multiple fares, rain or shine
expensive tanker trucks
or a shared water point
Daily Activities
Source: Adapted from Mahendra et al, 2021, p. 14.
Figure 3.10: Urban services divide leads to higher burden for the underserved
BURDENS BURDENS
BURDEN Better
The under-served are burdened served
by higher costs in terms of time,
money, and health, with fewer Though still affected
resources and limited by indirect costs of the divide,
opportunities such as pollution, the better
served face fewer costs in terms of
time, money, and health, with more
resources to pursue opportunities
OPPORTUNITIES
Under-
served OPPORTUNITIES
The cumulative costs of the urban services divide impact everyone in the city
One icon is equal to 5 million people Individual burdens Citywide costs
Time Higher inequality
Money Reduced productivity
Health Damaged environment
87
3.7. Urban Inequalities in Developed Failure to address the above challenges could be detrimental
Regions and the Future of Cities to the goals of inclusive and equitable urban futures. Cities in
the US could see a massive increase in the number of highly
Generally, urban inequalities are relatively lower in segregated neighbourhoods where minorities face chronic
developed regions because of the prioritization of egalitarian underinvestment in basic infrastructure and services,
policies. Nonetheless, income inequality, socioeconomic deteriorating job opportunities, increased crime rates, poor
disparity and spatial exclusion are becoming rife in cities in health delivery systems and downward economic mobility.
developed countries. Cities in developed regions generate
over 60 per cent of jobs and economic growth, but not all In European cities, there is mounting evidence of growing
cities have managed to grow inclusively.95 The most unequal inequalities. In 2017, 112 million EU inhabitants or 22
cities in the US have become more unequal, as eight of the per cent of the total population were at risk of poverty or
ten most unequal cities experienced an increase in their Gini social exclusion.98 While EU cities are characterized by
coefficients between 2010 and 2018.96 This trend has been high standards of living, they are also places of moderate to
further exacerbated by the COVID-19 (Box 3.1). high levels of income inequality. In recent years, wealth has
increasingly become concentrated in the hands of the few,
and this polarization of wealth is most concentrated in urban
income inequality, socioeconomic areas (Figure 3.11).99
disparity and spatial exclusion are
becoming rife in cities in developed In most European cities, welfare programmes, housing
countries markets, place-based policies and migration dynamics
play a major role in shaping socioeconomic segregation at
The Gini coefficient does not capture the multiple dimensions the neighbourhood level. For instance, the high levels of
of urban inequalities. However, in some situations the Gini socioeconomic segregation in Brussels are the outcome
index correlates with socioeconomic data. For instance, of a small share of social housing, limited placed-based
due to high income inequality, Miami was ranked 265th interventions and territorial processes that have created
out of 274 cities by the Urban Institute’s overall inclusion a divided city.100 Naples, Italy, is a city deeply marked by
rankings—along with high levels of racial segregation.97 socioeconomic inequalities have been driven by urban
This demonstrates that income inequality measured through segregation and the lack of financial instruments to bridge
the Gini coefficient can interact with other socioeconomic the gap.101 The spatial concentration of deprivation in
dimensions of inequality to produce highly unequal and European cities is closely linked to other dimensions of
divided cities, where wealth and urban opportunities become inequality such as inadequate education, poor health and
concentrated in the hands of a few. limited employment opportunities.
Box 3.1: The “troubled spots” of residential segregation in United States cities
In US cities, consumer-oriented modes of production have created separate and unequal landscapes or urban neighbourhoods, with
negative impacts on health, social mobility and economic prosperity for racialized communities. The current COVID-19 pandemic
has laid bare these structural inequities and their differential impact on the people of colour. Nationally, black people are dying from
COVID-19 at 2.4 times the rate of white people because of the inequitable living conditions, underlying structural conditions and
unequal access to health services that characterize segregated neighbourhoods. Residential segregation has made it possible for
government authorities to implement discursive measures such as withholding resources from minority communities through a
host of negative policies and practices, including over-policing and underinvestment in urban infrastructure. These are forces that
impede wealth accumulation and halt social mobility. As of 2016, the median net worth among white families was 10 times that of
black families, and more than eight times that of Latino or Hispanic families.
Source: Loh et al, 2020.
88
Figure 3.11: People at risk of poverty or social exclusion in European cities (2017)
Source: Joint Research Centre, 2019.
3.8. Responding to Poverty and Inequality 3.8.1. A multidimensional approach to an inclusive

in Cities and equitable urban future
The urgency of new approaches for transformative change
Tackling poverty and inequality remains one of the key global in cities cannot be overemphasized; the time for short-lived,
priorities for creating equitable and inclusive cities that piecemeal solutions should be a thing of the past. Urban
provide opportunities and prosperity for all. Without inclusive poverty and inequality are increasingly becoming persistent
cities, the impacts of future shocks and stresses may be and complex challenges, which call for new approaches.
even more acute than the current COVID-19 pandemic.102 Narrow, sectoral approaches are not effective amid the social,
Achieving this vision of a more egalitarian society that leaves economic, political and environmental crises that trap most
no one behind is not guaranteed; it requires bold actions residents in poverty. Within the Decade of Action window,
to break the structural barriers that trap people in cycles it is pertinent for cities and subnational governments to
of poverty and inequality. Currently, cities are experiencing adopt a multidimensional approach to addressing poverty
multiple crises (health, financial, political, economic and and inequality. Such approaches must extend beyond
environmental), all of which complicate responses to poverty conventional hard infrastructure programmes and look at
and inequality. The levels of urban poverty and inequality, the multiple spatial, social and economic factors that lead to
coupled with the devastating impacts of the COVID-19 exclusion and marginalization.
pandemic, send a clear message that governments must
act now to create conditions that nurture inclusive and The spatial, social and economic dimensions of cities are
equitable urban futures. Without decisive action at all levels, crucial to building sustainable and equitable urban futures
the current situation will only worsen. (Figure 3.12). These dimensions are interrelated. For
instance, affordable public transportation provides access
to jobs; jobs increase access to housing and basic services;
Tackling poverty and inequality and access to housing and services increases participation
remains one of the key global in urban governance and decision-making processes.
priorities for creating equitable Given the multiple deprivations facing the poor in cities, a
and inclusive cities that provide multidimensional response could generate significant gains in
opportunities and prosperity for all marginalized urban communities. The integration of spatial,
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Figure 3.12: Multidimensional approach to equitable urban futures
Source: Adapted from World Bank, 2015, p. 13
social and economic dimensions of urban development can Extending infrastructure and basic services to deprived
break structural barriers that create vicious cycles of poverty. neighbourhoods can galvanize action towards building
inclusive, thriving and resilient cities. Making these
3.8.2. Extending infrastructure and services to transformations does not only enhance equitable access
under serviced communities to urban services but can also yield large dividends and
Another priority action for tackling urban poverty and cascading benefits for the entire urban economy.104 It is
inequality is extending infrastructure and basic services to estimated that every dollar invested in developing water and
the most deprived neighbourhoods. The current COVID-19 sanitation infrastructure generates between US$4–34 in
pandemic is a vivid reminder that access to basic water and benefits by improving health outcomes and boosting urban
sanitation facilities can be a matter of life and death. Cities productivity.105 The revitalization of water and sanitation
are uniquely positioned to develop urban infrastructure to infrastructure in targeted neighbourhoods in Afghanistan led
improve the quality of life for the most vulnerable urban to a 6.4 per cent annual increase in private investments in
populations while at the same time responding to threats that land, housing and real estate.106 Moreover, extending basic
exacerbate inequalities, such as climate change. Targeting infrastructure and services to slums is critical to building
improvements in quality, coverage, and affordability to livelihoods, improving quality of life and strengthening
disadvantaged neighbourhoods often results in citywide public health (Chapter 7), as well as and stimulating the local
transformations. The cities of Colombo, Sri Lanka; Kampala, economy.
Uganda; and Nairobi have shown that extending piped
water and sewer networks in low-income neighbourhoods The cumulative effects of equitable access to urban
improves public health, protects the environment and allows services to poverty reduction can be significant. Equitable
citizens to be more productive.103 access to urban services is a necessary, but not sufficient
90
condition. Cities must be transformed at a deeper level in policymaking processes. In the Indian cities of Surat and
their governance and decision-making structures, planning Ahmedabad, the Mahila Housing Trust negotiated with city
approaches, institutions and priorities of political leaders. authorities and leveraged city funds on behalf of informal
These ingredients are vital for addressing poverty and sector workers.109 These funds were used to upgrade
promoting urban prosperity for all. housing conditions and access solar energy technologies to
run refrigerators, soldering irons and sewing machines for
3.8.3. Recognizing and supporting the urban home-based workers.
informal employment
The COVID-19 pandemic is an opportunity to better recognize
informal sector workers for their legitimate contribution to Looking into the future, cities must
urban economies. The informal economy must be supported stop the exclusion and harassment of
not only because it provides livelihoods for the working poor, informal workers
but also because it supplies goods and services that keep the
city’s formal economy running (Chapters 4, 6 and 10). The For these priority actions to materialize, there are key roles
implementation of pro-informal sector urban policies can which key urban stakeholders can play in supporting informal
unlock the hidden value that this segment of the economy employment (Table 1.1). For inclusive urban futures,
carries as well as transform the livelihoods of millions of it is important for cities and subnational governments
people that are employed in this sector.107 This issue is to acknowledge that informality is the dominant mode
addressed in the SDGs, particularly through SDG 8: “Promote of contemporary urbanization in developing countries;
sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and therefore, urban policies and programmes should be
productive employment and decent work for all.” Prioritizing developed from this perspective. Thus, cities must rethink
the informal sector in urban programmes will help achieve the and review the current exclusionary urban planning
SDGs on poverty, gender equality and equality. approaches in ways that are responsive to the needs of
informal activities (Chapter 6). Cities cannot eradicate
Looking into the future, cities must stop the exclusion poverty or become more equal and economically productive
and harassment of informal workers. The harassment and if they continue to exclude or harass large populations of the
penalization of street traders, waste pickers and market informal workforce. Urban planning and policymaking that
vendors must be halted, and their rights respected (Figure considers informal workers is difficult but not impossible.
3.14).108 These rights include legal recognition, social and It requires a shift in the mindset of policymakers and city
economic rights, access to essential infrastructure and planners to recognize the contribution of informal economies
services and better representation in urban governance and to the livelihoods of the urban poor.
Crowds outside railway terminus during a nationwide lockdown in Mumbai/India © Shutterstock
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Table 3.1: Roles of specific actors in supporting informal sector workers
Key Actors Specific roles in supporting informal sector workers
City governments Recognize the challenges of different types of urban informal workers and their contribution to urban economies in
different sectors
Improve access to essential urban infrastructure and services
Enhance access to public spaces, procurement opportunities and social protection programmes
Civil society, social movements, and non- Defend social and economic rights of informal workers
governmental organizations Collaborate with urban governments to increase the access of informal workers to public spaces, public services
and public procurement opportunities
Advocate for a more inclusive vision of economic prosperity, so that it is shared across all who contribute to the
workforce
Ensure equal employment rights and security for informal workers, including social and fiscal safety nets in times
of crisis and disasters
Support and facilitate participation of informal workers groups in urban decision-making that affects their lives and
livelihoods
National governments Create incentives for cities to offer public procurement contracts for services such as waste management to
informal worker organizations with a path to formalization and benefits
Engage informal worker organizations when setting policies in sectors in which they are employed, and support
them in negotiations with local governments
Private sector Partner with informal small entrepreneurs to invest in local innovations
Comply with wage laws and offer paths to formal employment and reliable livelihoods with benefits and insurance
schemes
Include informal workers in supply chains for goods and services and provide reliable business to support their
livelihoods
Create and operationalize innovative credit instruments in the banking sector for informal workers and businesses
investing in informal settlements, thus fostering financial inclusion
International community, including Develop financing programmes that help cities integrate informal workers into formal employment and service
development finance institutions delivery systems, with social and fiscal safety nets, health benefits and secure livelihoods
Incentivize a change in mindset to acknowledge the implications and contributions of the informal economy
Design programmes that ensure economic gains are distributed for shared prosperity, ensuring access for all
citizens to the full range of opportunities the city offers
3.8.4. Inclusive and gender transformative perspective becomes the basis for developing forward-
approaches for equitable urban futures looking strategies that build the resilience of the poor
It is paramount for cities to develop inclusive urban in the face of multiple risks.111 Cities should therefore
governance systems and processes that promote support inclusive, gender-transformative responses that are
transformative resilience to multiple crises by using local co-produced with marginalized urban populations, including
knowledge in the face of uncertainty. The quality of local attention to intersecting inequalities as noted in Chapter 1.
governance and use of local knowledge strongly influence These strategies will require working closely with specific
access to shelter, services, infrastructure and emergency urban groups such as:
response.110 These approaches have been instrumental as
part of the COVID-19 response strategies. Women and girls who bear the brunt of care burdens and
underrepresentation in urban governance structures
Urban leaders must draw on grassroots, civil society and
private sector efforts to build local alliances to deliver more Ethnic minority groups who are often disproportionately
effective strategies of addressing poverty and inequality. burdened by shocks and bear the brunt of discrimination
If cities harness local knowledge, they can effectively and systemic exclusion from urban development
understand how complex risks are experienced. This processes
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Migrants, refugees and internally displaced persons who upward mobility. Cities and subnational governments should
face heightened risk of socioeconomic exclusion and therefore develop and implement citywide upgrading and
marginalization renewal strategies based on need and disadvantage that
prioritize investment in urban weak spots.
People with disabilities and the elderly who may have
pre-existing health conditions and may struggle with City leaders should think creatively about improving housing
accessing infrastructure and urban services options for the poor. Existing evidence shows that in situ
upgrading is preferable to relocation, except in cases
3.8.5. Place-based interventions to build resilience when people need to move for their safety or to serve an
in “urban weak spots” overwhelming public need.112 Implementing upgrading
Cities should prioritize efforts to build resilience in their strategies in partnership with local communities helps cities
“urban weak spots” so that they can withstand future shocks harness untapped skills and the lived experiences of these
and stresses (Box 3.2). Urban weak spots are areas such as communities. This collaborative approach will improve access
slums and informal settlements that are characterized by to basic infrastructure and services, economic productivity,
poor services, overcrowding, hazardous locations, high risk and overall quality of life for the marginalized.
of eviction and multiple vulnerabilities. By amplifying these
vulnerabilities and creating new ones, the COVID-19 pandemic There are emerging models of best practices in participatory
send a strong message on the need to address the structural slum upgrading, which provide important lessons on how
inequalities in cities. Failure to do this will trap millions of slums and informal settlements can act as entry points
people in zones of deprivations with limited prospects of for place-based interventions. In Nairobi and Windhoek,
Namibia, there have been strong alliances between local
governments and community groups in slum upgrading
interventions. These cities are changing urban planning and
Box 3.2. Building the resilience of “urban weak land-use regulations to improve infrastructure quality and
spots” to future shocks access as well to enable incremental building over time.113
In Thailand, cities have partnered with community-based
In the long term, international and regional financial organizations and NGOs to upgrade informal settlements
institutions like the World Bank, the Africa Development through the Baan Mankong programme, creating a model
Bank and the Asian Development Bank can support the that has been scaled up to over 215 cities in 19 Asian
scaling-up of slum-upgrading interventions to strengthen countries.114 These grassroots, bottom-up housing and slum
investment in infrastructure and services for underserved upgrading programmes tapped into local knowledge, while
communities. Funding from development banks can be combining with government funds and approvals to serve as
mobilized through grants and/or low-interest micro- an innovative model throughout the region.
loans (or a combination) for housing improvements.
This approach would quickly get cash to households to
make needed shelter improvements that would build
resilience to future crises and serve to stimulate the The success of place-based interventions
formal and informal construction industries, on which depends on the existence of political will to
many informal, urban poor workers rely. Investing in pursue pro-poor urban development
homes can serve to reduce the spatial inequalities that
exist within cities between the formal and informal The success of place-based interventions depends on
sector, as well as build longer-term household wealth. the existence of political will to pursue pro-poor urban
Improvements in housing could also reduce overcrowding development. This approach to urban policymaking empowers
and thus vulnerability to future health crises. This kind poor communities to demand and realize their rights and
of investment is important for building longer-term entitlements, matched by financial, human and technical
resilience and reducing the social disparity that exists in capacity to create conditions for socioeconomic changes on
cities. the ground. Community-led slum upgrading interventions,
Source: World Bank, 2020
like those in Bangkok, Thailand, have produced well-serviced
and affordable housing for the poor.115
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3.8.6. Bottom-up urban resilience building for more than 500,000 residents are at high risk of exposure to
sustainable urban futures floods, droughts, earthquakes and other natural disasters.117
The COVID-19 pandemic and the looming climate crisis
have demonstrated the urgency of building resilience in the The Moving Urban Poor Communities in the Philippines
planning, governance and management of cities. Chapter 10 Towards Resilience (MOVE UP) model provides important
notes that building resilience for sustainable urbanization lessons for the future of cities with respect to pro-
requires linking in an integrated way the various pillars poor resilience interventions (Box 3.3). Specifically,
of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The the urban poor and at-risk communities must be at the
COVID-19 pandemic presents an opportunity for urban centre of interventions targeting the institutional, social,
leaders to prioritize building long-term resilience of cities economic, environmental and infrastructural dimensions
against all forms of shocks.116 The pandemic has intensified of resilience.118 The MOVE UP model demonstrates that
the pattern of emergencies, with urban areas bearing the the participation of at-risk communities strengthens their
brunt. In the same vein, almost two-thirds of cities with capacities and engenders a sense of ownership over projects.
Box 3.3: Moving Urban Poor Communities in the Philippines Towards Resilience (MOVE UP) Model
Urban context in the Philippines

Cities in the Philippines are characterized by rapidly expanding informal settlements, the majority of which are situated in
environmentally hazardous areas. Most of the 1.5 million informal settlement residents do not have access to essential infrastructure
and basic urban services such as water and sanitation. Residents of informal settlements are highly vulnerable to climate-related
impacts. The COVID-19 pandemic has worsened the situation by disrupting livelihoods of thousands of poor households.
How does the MOVE UP Project help build resilient communities?

The MOVE UP Project envisions resilient communities as those that can prepare and bounce back from shocks and stresses
because: they have the resilience capacities to do so; the society they live in is inclusive and equitable; and good governance
provides an environment that enables them to participate in public life and decision-making. The MOVE UP project places urban
poor communities at the centre. The project was designed based on the idea that communities become more resilient if they have
strong resilience capacities, and if the society they live in has well-developed social, economic, environmental, institutional and
infrastructure sectors. To help achieve this ideal, the project employs three main strategies—building resilience capacities, improving
social positions and creating an enabling environment.
Building resilience capacities entails increasing urban poor communities’ capacities to anticipate, respond to, adapt to and
transform risks. Aside from bolstering these resilience capacities, livelihoods and livelihood assets may also be made more resilient
by strengthening, diversifying and protecting them. This is particularly important in the context of COVID-19 where livelihoods of
informal settlement dwellers have been eroded due to lockdown measures and lack of social safety nets from governments.
Improving social positions means advancing social inclusion relating to gender, ethnicity, age and disability; increasing organizational
capacity; and pushing for the equitable distribution of capital and assets.
Creating an enabling environment consists of promoting participatory and inclusive governance processes that follow the rule of law.
The project was a collaborative effort between different stakeholders such as communities, civil society and non-government
organizations, private sector, local government units, and the national and subnational levels of government. By focusing on
improving shelter conditions during emergencies and making livelihoods more resilient to shocks and stresses, MOVE UP hopes to
strengthen the resilience capacities of urban poor communities and their respective local governments.
Source: Resilience and Innovation Learning Hub, 2020.
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As cities recover from the pandemic, their resources should access to these basic needs.122 Prioritizing the poorest
be directed towards collaborative resilience building with urban households in social protection interventions could
poor urban communities (Chapter 8). If cities are planned and generate more progress in addressing poverty and inequality.
managed using such innovative and bottom-up approaches, Transformative social protection is hinged on the notion
new opportunities for tackling poverty and inequalities will that poverty and vulnerability have social and economic
be unlocked. No urban intervention will succeed without dimensions, which call for more than income support. What
putting the poor communities at the centre. Failure to invest potentially makes such interventions transformative are
in urban resilience can reverse development gains by pushing efforts to dismantle structural barriers such as discrimination
millions back into poverty.119 against marginalized and vulnerable groups.123
Formal social protection assistance coverage is generally

3.9. Transformative Policies for Inclusive higher in rural areas. The COVID-19 pandemic has amplified
and Equitable Urban Futures the urgency of urban social protection programmes. A key
lesson from implementing social protection programmes
The COVID-19 pandemic provides a unique opportunity to in Latin America and Asia is that replicating rural models
reimagine transformative urban policies that redress poverty in urban settings will not work. This experience calls for
and inequalities in cities. The UN-Habitat report Cities and adapting or redesigning social protection interventions to
Pandemics: Towards a More Just, Green and Healthy Future make them appropriate for urban-specific vulnerabilities.
advocates for a “new social contract” in the form of universal
basic income, universal health coverage and universal housing 3.9.2. The critical pillars of social protection in
and basic services (Chapter 1).120 The COVID-19 pandemic cities
has exposed the gaps in social protection coverage, given its There are three key pillars of urban social protection that
disproportionate impact on the livelihoods of the urban poor should be prioritized (Figure 3.13). The first is social
and low-income workers.121 Policy interventions by both protection for informal workers.124 Workers in the informal
national and local governments are important for bolstering sector endure precarious livelihoods, unpredictable incomes,
the resilience of vulnerable groups to future shocks. There and difficult working conditions. During the COVID-19
are increased calls global for universal social protection on pandemic, street traders’ vending markets were destroyed
the grounds of both efficiency and equity. in the name of public health measures, which contributed
to massive loss of livelihoods and incomes, thus deepening
3.9.1. Social protection for the most vulnerable poverty. These informal workers rarely have unemployment
groups insurance, social assistance or any form of safety net.
Social protection is a potentially powerful policy tool for If cities are to serve as engines of inclusive growth, then
redistributing wealth and addressing urban poverty and social protection and dignified work should form related
inequalities, which have become defining features of cities policy elements of equitable urban futures. A transformative
especially in developing countries (Chapter 1). The need to approach to social protection would include implementing
reform social protection programmes has never been this regulation and monitoring to ensure the health and safety
urgent. Social protection programmes have the potential of all urban workers. In fact, the COVID-19 pandemic has
to contribute to the achievement of several SDGs. If social demonstrated the urgent need to strengthen the links
protection covers some form of basic income, housing and between social protection and livelihoods.
health, then it can contribute to achieving several SDG
targets. For instance, SDG target 11.1 seeks to ensure Going forward, governments should ensure strong linkages
access for all to adequate, safe and affordable housing and between social protection and livelihoods to help the most
basic services; thus, social protection can directly enhance vulnerable workers build more resilient livelihoods.125 In
the Indian cities of Bengaluru and Pune as well as in Brazil,
Colombia and Argentina, local governments have signed
contracts with previously informal waste picker cooperatives
Social protection is a potentially powerful policy for door-to-door waste collection.126 Cities should also
tool for redistributing wealth and addressing recognize informal sector workers as legitimate economic
urban poverty and inequalities actors through integration of their livelihoods activities into
urban policies and plans.
95
Figure 3.13: Pillars of urban social protection
The second pillar of social protection is adequate urban want to live and where services are available.132 National
housing for all, as millions of the urban poor, especially in governments should create decentralized frameworks that
developing countries, live in slums, informal settlements and empower cities to implement an appropriate housing policy
various forms of inadequate housing. Measures to achieve mix best suited to the needs of their local population.
adequate housing for all not only entail financial resources,
but also involve legal claims on tenure and an assertion of Access to essential public services constitutes a third area
the right to the city. The housing affordability crisis in cities of convergence between social protection and urbanization.
of developed and developing countries is a grave concern. The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the centrality of
For instance, in Australia, there is a constant rejection of the essential services—water, sanitation, transport and energy,
view that social housing should be expanded to ensure all among others, for the well-being of urban dwellers. However,
households are able to access decent, affordable housing.127 a majority of the poor including those living in informal
This view is incompatible with the current global goals of settlements, refugee camps and migrant dormitories do not
promoting access to decent and affordable housing for all. have access to these services, making them highly vulnerable.
Social protection can alleviate access constraints by giving
To address the current housing affordability crisis, poor households subsidized or free access to these services.
governments at all levels should prioritize targeted social City governments could experiment with innovative models
housing programmes. Latin American countries have been of social protection for urban services provision by designing
at the forefront of housing subsidies.128 In Chile, the ABC well-structured, targeted subsidies for affordability and
programme (ahorro or “savings,” bono or “subsidy” and social returns.133 Providing targeted subsides for electricity
credito or “loans”)129 uses the savings of residents as a and water connections for the neediest residents has proven
financial basis on which to offer loans and subsidies to make effective and affordable, allowing residents to pay the
housing more affordable.130 In Brazil, pragmatic public- upfront costs over time. Several cities across Chile, Colombia
private partnerships involving the three levels of government and South Africa subsidize water for households below a
are used to redevelop city land and create space for affordable certain income threshold, using existing socioeconomic
housing in the centre of São Paulo. classifications.134 However, such programmes will need to be
carefully designed to ensure that the most vulnerable derive
Cities could promote rental housing by converting the intended benefits.
underutilized urban land to affordable housing131 and invest
in public transport to connect housing with employment Poorly designed interventions can have unintended
centres. Subsidized housing programmes should be carefully consequences, with the low-income and poor households
designed as poorly structured incentives can have negative paying more for inferior services and the publicly-funded
outcomes. Ambitious social housing programmes that are subsidies going to higher-income groups. In Asia, China has
insensitive to location have been an important driver of urban experimented with urban social protection and demonstrated
expansion without access to basic services and have created that it is practical to implement such measures by adopting
a mismatch between where houses are built, where people an integrated system that recognizes the need to go beyond
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Box 3.4: China’s integrated urban social programme Dibao
The Chinese government introduced the Regulations on Minimum Subsistence for Urban Residents, abbreviated as Dibao, which
is a formal poverty-oriented measure to support low-income urban working households. In addition to Dibao, China’s urban social
protection regime includes education, health, employment, housing, disaster relief and temporary assistance programmes targeted
at tekun people (those destitute, in extreme difficulty and poverty), urban residents with no labour capacity, no income, and no legal
guardian. The primary target beneficiaries of these urban social protection programmes are the working poor, older persons without
pensions, needy children and persons with disabilities. In terms of housing, local governments give priority to low-income families in
urban areas facing housing insecurity priority in the allocation of public rental housing, rental subsides and home renovation schemes.
There are several important lessons emerging from the Dibao programme:
i. Social programmes designed for urban areas should target the most marginalized groups, especially those that struggle to access
urban labour markets.
ii. The design of social protection programmes must consider the multiple dimensions of urban vulnerabilities such as lack of access
to basic services like education, health and housings.
iii. Social protection programmes should form part of the multilevel governance response to urban poverty and inequalities, providing
a framework through which cities can promote inclusive and equitable urban futures.
Source: Lixiong, 2018.
income support measures (Box 3.4). The country’s locally these programmes.135 Social protection interventions that
designed Dibao programme integrates a fragmented system fail to consider urban-specific vulnerabilities such as higher
within a planned framework and establishes a security net living costs, high levels of informality and unemployment,
to meet basic needs of all people towards social justice and and unequal access to urban services, among others, will
inclusive cities. have limited success.
Urban vulnerabilities manifest differently in different

3.10. Success Factors for Social geographical contexts; therefore, a one-size-fits-all approach
Protection Policies in Urban Areas will not work. Figure 3.14 shows some of the key design
considerations for urban social protection given that
The implementation of successful urban social protection urban poverty and inequality across cities are highly
policies and programmes will not happen by chance. It differentiated—factors which determine the design of
depends on factors such as consideration of urban-specific urban social protection interventions. Cities should tailor
vulnerabilities, governance and institutional reforms, data- strategies that respond to different form of vulnerabilities.
driven targeting, rights-based approaches, comprehensive Social protection interventions should be nuanced and wide-
and integrated design of interventions, and political ranging to ensure the different risks and vulnerabilities
marketing, among others. associated with gender, age, ethnicity, migratory status and
other characteristics are effectively identified and tackled in
3.10.1. Addressing urban-specific vulnerabilities urban welfare programming.
A key le sson from the implementation of social protection
policies in Asia and Latin America is that simply replicating 3.10.2. Comprehensive and integrated design of
rural models in urban settings does not work because urban- urban social protection is key
specific vulnerabilities are complex and multidimensional, The complexity, multidimensionality and interconnectedness
which necessitates adapting or re-imagining the design of of urban poverty and inequality require a comprehensive
97
Figure 3.14. The A, B, C and D of urban social protection design
Source: Adapted from Gentilini, 2015.
social protection system that goes beyond income. Cities and generation and harness innovative financing mechanisms.
subnational government must invest in comprehensive social Chapter 4 provides insights on how cities can diversify their
protection systems, which guarantee income security and a economies and expand their fiscal opportunities. Cities
wide range of services for vulnerable groups. Additionally, can also pay to extend basic services and infrastructure
cities should see themselves as part of a continuum of to marginalized communities by tapping into fees paid by
national social protection systems where they are part of the rich. For instance, in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, the
the broader and interconnected interactions between rural, municipality uses fees paid by high-income households to
peri-urban and urs ban areas of various sizes. The COVID-19 improve wastewater infrastructure and support safe on-site
crisis has exposed the dangers of not having social protection sanitation for low-income households.137 Cities should also
systems that cushion vulnerabilities across territories, thus develop appropriate incentive schemes to engage with the
demonstrating the need to integrate social assistance, private sector and underserved markets in order to adopt
insurance and labour market interventions in coherent and new financing mechanisms that can fund the projects cities
connected ways across the urban-rural continuum.136 need most urgently. For cities to mobilize innovative revenue
sources, they will require fiscal autonomy within an effective
3.10.3. Innovative financial mobilization and revenue decentralized framework.
generation
Transformative and ambitious policy interventions require 3.10.4. Governance and institutional reforms
huge financial commitments. To successfully implement social Cities do not exist in isolation; those in poor countries lack
protection programmes, city governments in many countries the capacity, jurisdiction and resources to implement these
will have to increase their revenue streams. Depending bold and transformative measures. The transformative power
on the context, city governments will need to diversify of cities should be strengthened through a sustained, shared
their portfolio of revenue, improve capacity for revenue vision among diverse local stakeholder groups, including
98
representatives of international or multilateral agencies data gaps often lead to poorly designed and ineffective policy
operating locally. A governance challenge facing urban- responses. Cities should utilize new technologies, such as
specific social protection is that the New Urban Agenda satellite imagery and geospatial mapping, for better and
devolves much of the responsibility for delivering services more nuanced local insights on poverty and inequality.
to local governments, while social protection is usually
implemented at a national level. A multilevel governance 3.10.7. A rights-based approach to urban social
approach is therefore crucial for the implementation of protection
urban social protection. National governments should Social protection systems are most likely to deliver on their
promote policies and institutional reforms that enable the transformative potential if they are rooted in foundations
fiscal capacities of cities to implement these ambitious of human rights.142 Adequate legal and institutional
transformative measures.138 Additionally, the design and frameworks help social protection to be seen as an inherent
implementation of social protection programmes and policies social entitlement or right, rather than as mere charity, for
should meet specific urban needs in a coordinated national the most vulnerable populations. A rights-based approach
protection system.139 to social protection that follows two basic principles is
important. First, universalize social assistance to highly
3.10.5. The role of political marketing vulnerable urban populations; and second, universalize social
Political marketing is critical for successful urban social protection insurance to all workers including those working
protection. It is important to frame social protection within informally. For example, Austria’s comprehensive system of
an optimistic urban development narrative to facilitate policy social security, which includes both contributory and non-
uptake in the future. Policymakers at the city and subnational contributory social protection programmes, is rooted in
levels are sometimes sceptical about cash transfers or other international and regional human rights instruments. Austria
forms of social protection in urban areas. Proponents of considers social policy “a key instrument in tacking poverty
urban social protection programmes must address opposing and improving chances in life.”143
views such as concerns that these programmes will create a
dependent class disincentivized to work and induce urban 3.10.8. Mainstreaming social policy objectives into
congestion by encouraging migration to cities. Such biases national and local policies and plans
pose a key challenge for the institutionalization of urban The design and reform of social protection programmes
social protection programmes. Thus, it is important to frame should be complemented with comprehensive review of
these policy measures differently. For example, designating macroeconomic policies to mainstream socioeconomic
social protections as part of a broader suite of urban public objectives such as urban poverty and inequality reduction
works can draw support from local political leaders.140 into city development plans and policies. Until recently,
urban poverty and inequality have hardly featured in the
3.10.6. Investment in evidence-based targeting macroeconomic policy of many developing countries.
Successful urban social protection programmes target key Governments should have poverty reduction and economic
constituencies, but such efforts must be evidence driven development plans that set priorities for cities. Furthermore,
to reach the most vulnerable urban populations. Targeting cities should strengthen the link between urban policy and
eligible urban populations raises challenges that are often social protection; for instance, most of the risks faced by
not present in rural areas. Geographical and categorical informal sector workers stem from their exclusion in urban
targeting can be complicated by the varying spatial development policies and plans.
dimensions of urban poverty and inequalities, and lack of
current information on the spatial distribution of poverty.
The poor are usually clustered in specific geographical 3.11. Concluding Remarks and Lessons for
areas in some cities and widely dispersed in others. Local Policy
governments should identify so-called “pockets of poverty”
so that geographical targeting becomes effective in reaching This chapter has shown that poverty and inequality could
the most vulnerable populations.141 become persistent features of the future of cities in both
developed and developing countries if governments and
Cities cannot adequately address challenges that are poorly stakeholders at all levels do not take decisive actions. The
understood when they have limited data on the needs, COVID-19 pandemic laid bare the structural inequalities
priorities and vulnerabilities of the local population. These inherent in urban areas, exacerbated poverty, exposed
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hidden pockets of poverty, amplified existing vulnerabilities Inclusive and gender transformative approaches are
and created new ones and in ways that have placed additional urgent for building equitable urban futures.
burden on already overstretched local governments,
especially in developing countries. The impacts of the Urban sensitive social protection is a potentially
pandemic were severely devastating for the marginalized and powerful policy tool for redistributing wealth and
most vulnerable groups including the homeless, indigenous addressing poverty and inequalities.
peoples, refugees and migrants and internally displaced
persons, slum dwellers and those working in the informal Place-based interventions can build the resilience
economy. of “urban weak spots” such as slums and informal
settlements.
Whether urban poverty and inequality will become
entrenched and pervasive features of cities will undoubtedly The New Urban Agenda provides a framework for all
be determined by decisions and actions taken by city leaders facets of sustainable urbanization to promote equality,
today. Without urgent and transformative policy action at all welfare and shared prosperity. Cities should mainstream
levels, the current situation will only worsen. The long-term these commitments in their local development plans
costs of each incremental policy choice may not be clear, but with deliberate focus on addressing urban poverty and
each decision could shape the future of cities for generations inequality. Eradicating poverty and reducing inequality in
to come. Wrong decisions by city leaders could entrench all forms remain a cornerstone to ensure that cities are
poverty, deny opportunity for millions and widen urban better prepared for the next crisis.
disparities in ways that will become increasingly difficult to
reverse or rectify.
For inclusive and equitable urban futures to be realized, the

chapter emphasized the following key policy areas:
Adoption of a multidimensional approach to addressing

urban poverty and inequality through investing in both
hard and soft infrastructure can address the multiple
spatial, social and economic barriers that lead to
exclusion and marginalization.
Extending infrastructure and basic services to

underserved communities can be a catalyst for inclusive
and equitable urban futures.
Recognizing and supporting informal sector workers

through tailored social protection programmes and
responsive urban planning and policies is critical for
tackling poverty and inequality.
100
Endnotes
1. Bandauko et al, 2021. 35. UNICEF, 2020. 72. Khan, 2020. 111. Sverdlik and Walnycki, 2021.
2. UN-Habitat, 2018c. 36. Chilkoti, 2021. 73. Lall and Wahba, 2020. 112. Das and King, 2019.
3. UN-Habitat, 2020a. 37. Fund for Peace, 2021 74. Mack and Wrase, 2017. 113. King, et al, 2017.
4. UN-Habitat, 2020a; UNDESA, 2020. 38. UN-Habitat, 2020a. 75. Mack and Wrase, 2017. 114. Community Organizations
5. UNDESA, 2020b. 39. World Bank, 2018a. 76. Schinnerl and Greiling, 2019. Development Institute, 2018.
6. Khan, 2020. 40. World Data Lab, 2022. 77. Schinnerl and Greiling, 2019. 115. Mahendra et al, 2021.
7. Bandauko et al, 2022a, A systematic 41. Wang et al, 2020. 78. Tribuna Economica, 2019. 116. UN-Habitat, 2021a.
review of gated communities... 42. Kidokoro et al, 2021. 79. Maley, 2019. 117. UNDESA, 2018b.
8. Bandauko et al, 2022b. They say 43. Moloney, 2020. 80. UN-Habitat, 2020a. 118. Resilience and Innovation Learning
these are places for criminals... 44. ECLAC, 2021. 81. UN-Habitat, 2020a. Hub, 2020.
9. Serin, 2019. 45. Muggah, 2018. 82. Sánchez-Ancochea, 2020. 119. Cities Alliance, 2021b.
10. World Bank, 2018a. 46. UN-Habitat, 2020a. 83. UN-Habitat, 2020a. 120. UN-Habitat, 2021a.
11. Sachs et al, 2021. 47. UN-Habitat, 2020a. 84. UNICEF, 2020. 121. Devereux, 2021.
12. Hughes et al, 2021. 48. Arimah, 2010. 85. Shaban and Aboli, 2021. 122. Cuesta et al, 2021.
13. Hughes et al, 2021. 49. World Bank, 2018a. 86. Mahendra et al, 2021. 123. Cuesta et al, 2021.
14. Lakner et al, 2020. 50. Bandauko et al, 2022c. 87. UN-Habitat, 2020a. 124. Cuesta et al, 2021.
15. UNDP and Oxford Poverty and 51. Elgendy and Abaza, 2020. 88. UN-Habitat, 2021a. 125. WFP, 2020.
Human Development Initiative, 2021. 52. Cities Alliance, 2022. 89. Armah et al, 2018. 126. Mahendra et al, 2021.
16. UNDP and Oxford Poverty and 53. Dachaga and de Vries, 2021; World 90. Cities Alliance, 2021a. 127. Watt, 2017.
Human Development Initiative, 2020. Bank, 2020c. 91. Mahendra et al, 2021. 128. Triveno, 2016.
17. UNDP and Oxford Poverty and 54. Habitat for Humanity International, 92. Mahendra et al, 2021. 129. Bredenoord et al, 2014.
Human Development Initiative, 2020. 2021. 93. Mahendra et al, 2021. 130. Mahendra et al, 2021.
18. World Bank, 2020b. 55. Mahendra et al, 2021. 94. Mahendra et al, 2021. 131. King et al, 2017.
19. Nguyen et al, 2020. 56. Mahendra et al, 2021. 95. OECD, 2016. 132. Mahendra et al, 2021.
20. Lakner et al, 2020. 57. Mutinda et al, 2020. 96. Bach, 2020. 133. Feltenstein and Dalta, 2020.
21. Sanchez-Paramo, 2020. 58. ILO, 2018. 97. Poethig et al, 2018. 134. Mitlin et al, 2019.
22. United Nations, 2020d. 59. ILO, 2020. 98. Joint Research Centre, 2019. 135. Gentilini et al, 2021.
23. Gradín et al, 2021. 60. ILO, 2021b. 99. Joint Research Centre, 2019. 136. World Bank, 2021a.
24. Sánchez-Ancochea, 2020. 61. Muggah and Florida, 2020. 100. Haandrikman et al., 2021. 137. Mahendra et al, 2021.
25. Oxfam, 2021. 62. Akter et al, 2021. 101. Lanza and De Martino, 2022. 138. Annan-Aggrey et al, 2021
26. United Nations, 2020d. 63. World Bank, 2020d. 102. UN-Habitat, 2021a. 139. Gentilini, 2015.
27. Gradín et al, 2021. 64. Mahendra et al, 2021. 103. Mahendra et al, 2021. 140. Gentilini et al, 2021.
28. World Bank, 2022c. 65. Chu et al, 2019. 104. Mahendra et al, 2021. 141. Cuesta et al, 2021.
29. Fisher-Post, 2020. 66. Byers et al, 2018. 105. UNESCO, 2016. 142. UNRISD, 2016.
30. Lord, 2020. 67. Bangalore et al, 2019. 106. World Bank, 2020c. 143. Federal Ministry of Labour, Social
31. Khan, 2020. 68. Cities Alliance, 2021c. 107. Mahendra et al, 2021. Affairs and Consumer Protection,
32. Jean Claude, 2020. 69. United Nations 2021b. 108. Chen and Beard, 2018. 2014.
33. Mahendra et al, 2021. 70. UN-Habitat, 2021a. 109. Mahendra et al, 2021.
34. UNICEF, 2020. 71. UN-Habitat, 2021a. 110. Sverdlik and Walnycki, 2021.
101
Bangladesh, Dhaka, BRAC, Bijoy Sarani Railway Slum,

©UN-Habitat/Kirsten Milhahn
102
Chapter 4:
Resilient Urban Economies: A
Catalyst for Productive Futures
103
Resilient Urban Economies: A Catalyst for Productive Futures
Quick facts
1. Future shocks that significantly impact urban economies are imminent. However, there
are disparities in cities’ resilience to face such shocks, with some more prepared than
others.
2. The informal economy is still and will continue to be vibrant economic force in urban
areas of developing countries. The sector must therefore be recognized and supported
as a legitimate contributor to urban economies through a wide range of inclusive policies
and targeted programmes.
3. Well-planned and managed urbanization is a transformative force towards sustainable

and inclusive growth in the future of cities.
4. The COVID-19 pandemic has unleashed an unprecedented crisis resulting in massive

job losses, shrinking local revenues and contraction of urban economic growth. This
experience demonstrates the urgency of building resilient urban economies for the future.
5. Cities in developing countries are experiencing rapid urbanization without structural

transformation, thus failing to reap productivity gains, which make them highly vulnerable
to future shocks.
Policy points
1. Cities should prioritize economic diversification as a critical pillar for building resilient
urban economies and productive urban futures in line with the New Urban Agenda.
2. Sustainable urban and territorial planning supported with effective governance structures
is critical for building resilient urban economies and productive urban futures.
3. Urban economies are more productive in peaceful and stable societies.
4. Governments should implement targeted interventions such as tailored social safety

nets to strengthen the capabilities of marginalized groups.
5. Sustainable and innovative municipal finance are fundamental for optimistic urban
futures.
104
Cities are significant accelerators of economic growth, The economic impact of the pandemic is reverberating
contributing more than 80 per cent of global gross domestic across regions. For instance, before the pandemic, per capita
product (GDP). Due to agglomeration effects and economies GDP in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region
of scale, cities generate substantial economic activity and was estimated to be US$14,000, but this figure dropped to
wealth, with tangible benefits for urban residents. For US$13,000 in 2020. Estimates show that regional economies
instance, in Africa, one can earn as much as 23 per cent in MENA could take until 2024 or 2025 to bounce back to
more in cities than in rural areas.1 This kind of income boost pre-pandemic levels,6 with cities being the hardest hit. In
is a clear pointer that, if well-managed, urbanization can be Europe, the regional economy contracted by 5.9 per cent in
a transformative force for sustainable growth that increases 2020.7 In England and Wales, for example, urban areas could
the productivity of cities and drives local economic activity. have accounted for 60.4 per cent of the total job losses due
to pandemic-induced economic shocks.8
The New Urban Agenda encourages governments to
prioritize sustainable and inclusive urban economies The economic impact of the pandemic has been variegated
by leveraging the benefits associated with well-planned across the world owing to differences in the resilience of
urbanization processes.2 The NUA also envisages cities urban economies, economic structure of different urban
that are adequately prepared to meet the challenges and areas, the fiscal health of various levels of government and
opportunities of present and future; cities that generate social protection measures, among others. In developing
inclusive and sustainable economic growth, including regions, workers in the informal economy have borne the
recognition of the informal economy.3 Moreover, SDG brunt of economic contraction and massive job losses,
8 calls for nations to pursue inclusive and sustainable complicating their ability to rebuild their livelihoods. In
economic growth as well as employment and decent work developed countries, the pandemic’s economic impact
for all, trends that will be driven by outcomes in urban disproportionately affected marginalized groups such as
areas. These calls to action from the global development minorities, migrants, indigenous peoples and the homeless,
agenda show how urban economic prosperity is a pillar of among others (Chapters 1 and 3). For example, migrants in
achieving the ambitions set out in the SDGs and the NUA, European urban economies work with limited job security
as well as helping the world recover from the economic and without legal status, making them vulnerable to income
crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. losses in times of crises, especially sectors in which migrants
were overrepresented.9
Historically, cities have always been vulnerable to economic
shocks and stresses. The global financial crisis of 2008–2009 The pandemic also inflicted strain on the fiscal health of
impacted cities by reducing demand for manufactured goods cities and countries. Globally, local governments were
and exports, worsening unemployment, disrupting housing expected to have 15 to 25 per cent less revenues by 2021.10
markets, reducing public revenue and overall contracting With weakened fiscal capacity and growing pressure on
local economies.4 But that crisis pales in comparison to the public finances, local governments may struggle to invest in
current pandemic; the COVID-19 crisis has unleashed an key infrastructure and services—critical pillars for thriving
unprecedented stress test on urban economies, even highly urban economies and productive urban futures. Additionally,
competitive ones. Melbourne, Australia, for example, is the pandemic has not only slowed down investment into
projected to see a cumulative reduction in gross product of and progress towards SDG 8 on decent work and economic
up to AU$110 billion and stifled job growth from the onset growth, it has also left countries grappling with inflation
of the pandemic to 2024, with up to 79,000 fewer jobs well above their monetary policy targets.11 The tightening
created than pre-COVID forecasts.5 of global financing conditions in the face of rising inflation
is projected to put more countries at risk of debt distress,
further constraining their fiscal space and impeding economic
growth. Already, current estimates indicate that 60 per cent
of least developed and other low-income countries being at
the COVID-19 crisis has high risk of, or in, debt distress.12
unleashed an unprecedented
stress test on urban As the world transcends the pandemic, the inflationary
economies, even highly pressures have been exacerbated by both ongoing global
competitive ones supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine. Besides
105
This chapter explores the pathways to resilient urban

economies and productive urban futures. It analyses how
the urban economy can be strengthened to withstand
future shocks and crises, while examining how the urban
economy can be fully fit for purpose to withstand these
shocks. Additionally, the chapter discusses new innovative
sources of revenue that cities can leverage for sustainable
urban futures. Finally, the chapter explores the different
ways city authorities can support the informal sector
to achieve inclusive growth. As a prelude, the chapter
introduces the concept of urban economic resilience,
including its strategic pillars and how these relate to both
cities of developed and developing regions. The state of
urban economies in both developing and developed regions
is then discussed, including implications for the future of
cities. The chapter ends by discussing the transformative
pathways towards resilient urban economies and productive
urban futures.
4.1. Conceptualizing Urban Economic

Resilience
A market in Georgetown, Guyana © Kirsten Milhahn/UN-Habitat Urban economic resilience refers to “the capacity and
related capabilities of cities or urban communities to plan
massive loss of life and displacement of persons, the conflict for, anticipate negative shocks, including long-term stresses,
in Ukraine has further increased the ongoing disruptions to their economies, allocate, reallocate, and mobilize
to global logistics and supply chains. Additionally, since the resources to withstand those shocks, recover from the
region is a significant contributor to global food and energy shocks, and rebuild at least to pre-crisis levels, while placing
supplies, the conflict is also shaking energy markets— their economies on the path to sustainable economic growth
driving up oil and fuel prices globally—and worsening and simultaneously strengthening their capacity to deal with
food insecurity, increasing further uncertainty in the global any future shocks” (Figure 4.1). 15 A resilient urban economy
economy already battered by COVID-19 crisis.13 must be able to withstand and recover from shocks such as
financial and economic crises (Chapter 10).
The World Cities Report 2020 highlights how the COVID-19
pandemic provides an opportunity for policymakers to Cities with strong economic resilience usually have the
reimagine how cities can build the resilience of their urban resources and institutional capacity to implement adaptive
economies to reduce their vulnerability to future shocks and changes and diversifying into new economic sectors, thereby
stresses. Without concerted efforts at all levels of government making their local economies agile.16 Existing evidence suggests
to manage the COVID-19 crisis and recovery, the pandemic that economic diversity can contribute to urban economic
would continue to undermine the economic structures of resilience while sectoral specialization and export concentration
cities and increase the level of risk aversion among businesses are likely to be more vulnerable to economic shocks.17 The
and depress urban investment in the long run.14 The pandemic COVID-19 pandemic has exposed these realities; specialized
and the emerging shocks could set the productivity of cities on
a downward spiral with dire consequences on the collective
vision of inclusive, equitable, resilient and productive urban Cities with strong economic resilience usually
futures. The multiple impacts of the recent shocks on urban have the resources and institutional capacity to
economies demonstrate the urgency of investing in integrated implement adaptive changes and diversifying
resilient interventions, taking into account the economic into new economic sectors, thereby making
needs of most vulnerable groups. their local economies agile
106
Figure 4.1: Conceptualization of urban economic resilience
The capacity and related capabilities

Key Factors shaping urban of urban communities to:
economic resilience
• Local institutional capacities
• Labour market conditions
Negative shocks (e.g.
• Fiscal arrangements Plan for and anticipate COVID-19, financial crisis) Reallocate and mobilize
• Technological innovations including long-term stresses resources
to their economies
• Economic diversity
• City competitiveness /
comparative advantage To withstand those shocks
Recover from the shocks
Rebuild at least to pre-crisis levels
BALANCED, INCLUSIVE AND SUSTAINABLE

While placing their urban economies on the path to URBAN ECONOMIC GROWTH
sustainable economic growth and simultaneously
strengthening their capacity to deal with any future • Stable gross city product growth per capita
shocks • Stable (increasing) own source revenue growth
Cities may reconfigure their economic structures in • Stable (increasing) labour force participation rates
light of new dynamics • Declining inequality rates
RESILIENT URBAN ECONOMIES AND

PRODUCTIVE URBAN FUTURES
Source: Adapted and modified from UN-Habitat and UNCDF, 2021.
urban economies such as those who relied more on tourism per capita revenue. Ultimately, an increase in GCP per capita,
and export markets were severely impacted due to restrictions labour force participation rates and own source revenue per
in movement and supply chain disruptions. On the other hand, capita coupled with a decrease in inequality will improve the
diversified urban economies capitalized on their innovation well-being of urban residents.
capacities and creative human capital in order to adapt to the
new economic order necessitated by the pandemic. Urban economic resilience is also multidimensional: its key
pillars include business environment, economic governance,
As indicated in Figure 4.1, the overall objective of urban labour market conditions and financial arrangements (Figure
economic resilience is to achieve balanced, inclusive, and 4.2). Business environment and economic governance refer
sustainable development as measured by indicators such as to urban systems and describe, respectively, conditions for
gross city product (GCP) growth, labour force participation business operations (both public and private), the structure
rate, inequality rates and per capita gross city product and of local economies, as well as rules and regulations that
govern the activities of businesses. Labour market conditions
and financial arrangements refer to factor markets (labour
an increase in GCP per capita, labour force and capital, respectively) in urban areas. Together these four
participation rates and own source revenue per pillars are critical for building resilient urban economies
capita coupled with a decrease in inequality will and productive urban futures, but their manifestation varies
improve the well-being of urban residents geographically.
107
Figure 4.2: Key dimensions of resilience building for urban economies
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT LABOUR MARKET CONDITIONS
Determine Demand
Supply chains for Labour Wages and working hours
Firm size Mobility

Entrepreneurship Determine supply Social security mechanisms
of Labour
Technology
Role of public sector
Financial strength
INFRASTRUCTURE &
CONNECTIVITY
Determine Determine supply The capacity of basic infrastructure
demand for of and access to
capital capital in labour markets
of the other four dimensions of urban
FINANCIAL ENVIRONMENT ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE

Debt markets Ease of doing business
Equity markets Resilience in development
Government financing planning
Financial technology (fintech)
in capital markets economic crisis
Complementary financing
Macroeconomic and urban
mechanisms economies
Source: UN-Habitat and UNCDF, 2021.
The informal economy and small and medium-sized enterprises are operating in a context where urban policy formulation
(SMEs) constitute a key part of the business environment in needs improvement and implementation remains a hurdle. This
developing country cities. On the other hand, the business difference in policy contexts is reflected in disproportionate
environment in cities of developed countries is mostly experiences in responding to shocks and channelling resources
characterized by larger firms in the knowledge industries, towards resilient urban economies. Compared with developing
advanced producer services, advanced manufacturing sectors countries, developed country cities have vibrant debt, equity
and creative industries, among others. When compared to and capital markets, which facilitate access to reliable financing
developing countries, urban economies in developed countries instruments to fund urban programs. As illustrated in Figure
are also backed by diverse labour market conditions, with 4.2, infrastructure and connectivity systems are central to
highly skilled workers that can easily adapt to changes in local facilitate the functioning of the other four dimensions of the
economies. These characteristics create favourable conditions urban economy under stressful conditions. In building urban
for stronger agglomeration economies and productivity economic resilience, these key pillars should be considered in
enhancing gains—making developed cities more resilient to an integrated and holistic way.
shocks than their counterparts in developing regions.
Developed and developing country cities vary significantly in infrastructure and connectivity
terms of the mechanics of their economic governance. For systems are central to facilitate
instance, most cities in developed countries usually have explicit the functioning of the other four
economic development plans, policies and strategies, which are dimensions of the urban economy
often executed. In comparison, most cities in developing regions under stressful conditions
108
4.2. Urban Economies of Cities in

Developing Countries
This section examines the state of urban economies in cities

of developing regions, with particular focus on (i) structure of
urban economies, (ii) the structure of the informal economy
and its contributions, (iii) the nexus between urban planning
and urban economies, (iv) dynamics of unbalanced urban
and territorial economic development and (v) municipal
financing, among other aspects of the economic well-being
of cities. The implications of these issues for urban economic
resilience and productive urban futures are highlighted, as
are areas requiring specific policy attention moving forward.
4.2.1. Economic structure of developing country

cities and implications for the urban future
Countries with similar urbanization trends might nevertheless
have varying urban economic structures.18 Economies of
agglomeration are stronger in the manufacturing and high-
skilled service sectors, which exist in most Eastern Asian and
Latin American cities but are less common in Sub-Saharan
Africa (SSA) or the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).19
In Eastern Asia, some countries such as China, Malaysia and
Thailand have been relatively successful in leveraging the
benefits of urbanization by generating higher productivity
jobs (Figure 4.3). Street bazaar in Cairo, Egypt © leshiy985/Shutterstock
Figure 4.3: Urbanization and growth in selected Eastern Asian countries
80
70
share of urban population (%)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
GDP per capita (constant 2012 US$)
China Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Vietnam

Source: Page et al, 2020.
109
Figure 4.4: Urbanization without economic transformation in Africa
30
Share of manufucturing, percent of GDP
20
10
0
20 40 60 80 100
Urbanization rate, percent of population
Sub-Saharan Africa, 2019 Fitted values

All excluding SSA, 2019 Fitted values
Kenya, 1985-2019 Nigeria 1985-2019
South Africa
Source: Grover et al, 2022.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, urban economies tend to be of agglomeration economies and specialize primarily in
undiversified with a limited manufacturing sector and small producing non-tradable goods and services.25 Notably, the
firm sizes. Some countries are experiencing rapid urbanization share of tradable commodities in Asian cities is comparably
without structural transformation of their city economies, higher at about 70 per cent, which is 20 percentage points
which amplifies their vulnerabilities to future shocks. higher than that of African cities (Figure 4.5).26
These dynamics have reduced the ability of governments
to promote vibrant manufacturing as a driver of sustainable The dynamics in Figure 4.5 also play out in so-called
economic growth.20 Mauritania, for instance, despite being “consumption cities” where a large share of urban workers
one of the most urbanized countries in the region, exhibits is employed in non-tradable service sectors (e.g. commerce,
the possibility of a weak link between urbanization and transport and government services).27 Because of their
growth; the country’s economy remains largely reliant on economic structure, consumption cities do not generate
natural resources. In this so-called “incomplete urbanization” significant productivity gains and knowledge spillovers,
scenario, the process of urbanization is not commensurate making them highly vulnerable to future shocks.28 These
with parallel increases in GDP per capita.21 Simply put, dynamics discourage firms and workers from moving to
Mauritania has not benefitted from the economic dividends cities where there is no guarantee of enjoying productivity-
that typically accompany urban growth. Similarly, Nigeria enhancing benefits.29 If the current trajectory of urbanization
and South Africa have seen their shares of manufacturing in without structural transformation continues, the prospects
GDP decline even while they experienced rapid urbanization for resilient urban economies and productive urban futures
(Figure 4.4).22
Despite urbanization being a key feature of structural Because of their economic

change, in most African cities, a majority of the urban structure, consumption cities
population currently does not have access to productive do not generate significant
jobs.23 In Mozambique, Sierra Leone and Tanzania, at least productivity gains and knowledge
30 per cent of the urban population are still employed in spillovers, making them highly
agriculture.24 African cities do not fully reap the benefits vulnerable to future shocks
110
Figure 4.5: Share of firms in internationally tradable and non-tradable sectors in selected developing country cities
Sub-Saharan Africa
Luanda (Angola)
Gaborone (Botswana)
Dar es Salaam (Tanzania)
Kampala (Uganda)
Kigali (Rwanda)
Bamako (Mali)
Accra (Ghana)
Nouakchott (Mauritania)
Nairobi (Kenya)
Dakar (Senegal)
Addis Ababa (Ethiopia)
Kinshasa (DRC)
Lagos (Nigeria)
Mombasa (Kenya)
Lusaka (Zambia)
Harare (Zimbabwe)
Middle East and North Africa
Tunis (Tunisia)
Beirut (Lebanon)
Amman (Jordan)
Cairo (Egypt)
Latin America
La Paz (Bolivia)
Asuncion (Paraguay)
Cordoba (Argentina)
Medellin (Colombia)
Bogota (Colombia)
Buenos Aires (Argentina)
Lima (Peru)
Asia
Yangon (Myanmar)
Bangkok (Thailand)
Zhengzhou City (China)
Dhaka (Bangladesh)
Shenzhen City (China)
Delhi (India)
Chittagong (Bangladesh)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Share of firms in sector (%)
Nontradable Tradable
Source: Page et al, 2020.
in developing countries could be significantly inhibited. In economies to future shocks. The MENA region, for example,
Southern Asia, for instance, limited economic diversification has longstanding economic structural problems such as low
as well as poorly organized labour markets are among the GDP growth, low employment especially among women
key factors that made urban economies highly vulnerable to and youth, low human capital index, a large informal sector,
economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. In this weak investment climate and poor amounts of foreign direct
region, economic diversification is low or minimal, with near investment.31 These problems have been amplified by the
single-industry economies especially susceptible to supply pandemic and are key impediments to the long-term growth
and demand shocks in countries like Bangladesh (garments), of urban economies. In some parts of the MENA region,
the Islamic Republic of Iran (oil) and Maldives (tourism).30 urban economies face multiple vulnerabilities beyond low
and minimal diversification. These vulnerabilities include
Moving forward, there is an urgent need for various levels of high-intensity conflict in Libya and Syria, medium-intensity
governments to rethink their industrial and growth policies conflict in Iraq and Yemen, and social fragility in Lebanon,
so as to promote the development of more complex, high-skill the West Bank and Gaza, among others.32
and high value-added sectors to build the resilience of urban
111
Open air market in Bangalore, India © Shutterstock
Conflicts in this region, as well as other regions across 4.2.2. The informal economy and prospects for
the world, not only result in loss of life, they destroy local productive urban futures
economies. The continuation of these conflicts does not As pointed out in the World Cities Report 2020, the
augur well for urban economies and productive urban informal economy has become the lifeblood of many cities
futures. Not only will infrastructure be destroyed, but supply in developing countries. Indeed, 61.2 per cent of global
chains will also be continuously disrupted. By implication, employment is in the informal sector.33 In emerging market
urban competitiveness will suffer, and any prospects of and developing economies (EMDEs), the informal sector
domestic and foreign investment will fade. This ultimately contributes about one-third of GDP and more than 70 per
will create a vicious cycle where cities in conflict-affected cent of employment.34 International Labour Organization
regions will continue to experience disintegration of their (ILO) data shows that 85.8 per cent of employment in Africa
economic structure, which has negative repercussions on is informal. In Asia and the Pacific as well as Arab States it
productive urban futures. constitutes 68 per cent of employment; in Americas, 40 per
cent; and in Europe and Central Asia, 25.1 per cent. 35 The
prevalence of informal employment is highest in urban areas
of Africa (Figure 4.6 and Figure 4.7).
Figure 4.6: Share of informal employment in total employment by area of residence
Source: ILO, 2018.
112
Figure 4.7: Informal employment in selected developing country cities
Source: Chen and Beard, 2018.
Informal workers from slums also make significant as a residual and low productivity sector, and hence receive
contributions to urban economies in developing countries. little or no support in terms of access to infrastructure,
For instance, informal waste pickers, a majority of whom finance, social protection systems and markets.
are slum dwellers, perform 50 to 100 per cent of waste
collection in developing countries. As of 2014, waste pickers These multiple barriers constrain the productivity of informal
in South Africa saved municipalities between R300 million workers despite their contribution to the livelihoods of
and R750 million per year by extending the life of landfills.36 the poor and urban economies. In Sub-Saharan Africa, for
example, the productivity of informal firms is estimated to
The informal economy still faces structural impediments that range from one-fifth to one-quarter that of formal firms.38
affect its productivity. In most cities in developing countries, This disparity translates to precarious incomes and little
the informal sector is not recognized as a legitimate contribution to urban economic activity. Informal workers
contributor to urban economies. Most cities in developing also struggle to accrue adequate savings, thereby increasing
countries deploy exclusionary urban policies to penalize their vulnerability to future shocks.
informal workers for their livelihood practices, especially
those in public spaces like street vendors. Waste pickers The COVID-19 pandemic has amplified the structural
are denied access to waste management contracts and their barriers confronting the informal economy, which could
contribution to the urban economy is undervalued by city further undermine its productivity and contribute to
planners.37 The informal economy is almost always perceived worsening poverty (Chapter 3). Yet, in some cities the
113
Box 4.1: Informal economy: Surviving, managing, thriving in conflict-affected situations
In fragile and conflict-affected situations, the informal economy provides a dynamic and systemic response to the prevailing
challenges as well as opportunities. For many informal workers such as fruit sellers and street food vendors, work continues despite
the crises. However, the main challenge is surviving a highly volatile context riddled with urban violence that disrupts transport,
supplies and markets.
Time and again, especially in fast-burn crises, a solidarity system of survival emerges in which barriers break down and
communities unite to face a common threat. Humanitarian interventions often miss this adaptability, ingenuity and solidarity and
thus undermine the potential for self-help, for example in early replacement of basic services lost during the crisis.
For informal workers, growth (e.g. transition to managing enterprises) requires more security, market stability and operating space
so that capital investment in supplies and equipment is not wasted. This means rebuilding the complex networks that sustain
informal workers and enable them to operate—such as suppliers, transport networks, mobile phones, links to middlemen, and
relationships of trust and credit. Here flexibility to adopt blended livelihoods combining income streams from several jobs is critical,
but action by local officials as well as security or aid agencies can disrupt these fragile networks. Such networks are also vulnerable
to co-option and extortion by criminal gangs. Early intervention to prevent such coercion taking hold is critical.
Some informal enterprises and workers find capacity to thrive in the hostile business environment of crises. These include transport
operators supplying aid goods; skilled reconstruction workers; and migrants, internally displaced persons or refugees with access
to diaspora networks to support trade and investment. This phenomenon has been vital in the emergence of Somaliland. Refugees,
however, face constraints when the legal frameworks in host countries do not support their right to work, condemning them to
unofficial income-earning activities.
Lastly, development agencies that focus on economic reconstruction for formal businesses often miss the local economic
development potential of the many smaller enterprises which flourish in post-conflict cities, despite unsupportive regulatory
frameworks or hostile local government actions.
Source: UN-Habitat, 2019c.
informal economy does not exist in the shadows but rather their contribution to productive urban futures and urban
constitutes the bulk of economic activity. Notably, in fragile economic resilience. Increased productivity of the informal
and conflict-affected situations, it performs a vital labour- economy could lead to better incomes and reduced poverty
absorbing function through its ability to provide employment levels (Chapter 3). It is likely that the informal economy will
opportunities during crises (Box 4.1). Therefore, the expand significantly in the future, thus, urban policies should
challenge for policymakers is how to effectively harness be developed with this reality in mind.
this sector for building resilient urban economies that can
withstand future shocks 4.2.3. Poorly planned and managed urbanization
undermines productive urban economies
As we move into the future, cities and subnational In fast-growing cities, current deficiencies in planning
governments should implement policies and programs to coupled with limited housing supply contribute to the
support transition to formalization and create opportunities massive expansion of highly crowded informal settlements
for decent and productive employment. Doing so will help that are underserved in terms of basic infrastructure and
achieve SDG 8 the provisions of the New Urban Agenda services. These institutionalized deprivations create vicious
that call for harnessing the informal economy. Transition to cycles of low economic growth, low tax revenue bases and
formalization should be backed by tailored support measures subsequent perpetual decline in infrastructure investment
such as access to affordable finance, markets and infrastructure and services due to inadequate revenue. African cities are
to strengthen the resilience of informal enterprises and boost often described as crowded, disconnected, and costly—the
114
Figure 4.8: The CDC dilemma facing African urban economies
CITIES
CROWDED DISCONNECTED COSTLY
For households and firms - high
infrastructure investments have
fragmented manner without deter investors and trading partners,
not kept pace with the
especially in regionally and
firms, nor have investments in
affordable formal housing; workers’ high food, housing and
firms from reaping scale and transport costs increase labour costs
overwhelm the benefits of to firms and thus reduce
expected returns on
investment.
Source: Lall et al, 2017.
“CDC dilemma” (Figure 4.8).39 African cities are 23 per cent prosperity, which in turn undermines the drive towards
more fragmented than Asian and Latin American cities,40 productive urban futures. In some developing country
which increases the cost of infrastructure provision. Such cities, authorities have adopted strict land-use controls that
cities become less competitive and struggle to attract both limit opportunities for densification. Most African cities,
domestic and foreign investment. for example, still retain regulatory standards passed on
from the colonial era. 45 These land-use policies produce
As shown in Figure 4.8, poorly planned urbanization dysfunctional cities by encouraging sprawl rather than
processes translate to a disconnect between the provision compact development.46 Chapter 2 already lays out the
of infrastructure and residential concentrations, resulting in future scenarios of such growth and calls for such spatial
unreliable transport systems. This negatively affects the ability growth should be anticipated with sound policies that
of cities to leverage agglomeration economies of scale.41 promote compact development.
The CDC dilemma has a negative impact on urban Taken collectively, these multiple dynamics create structural
economies due to limited accessibility of opportunities, impediments for urban economic prosperity and inclusive
including limited ability of residents and businesses to growth as envisaged in the New Urban Agenda. These
access markets, employment opportunities, healthcare (e.g. conditions undermine the economic productivity and
hospitals) and education (e.g. schools and universities). competitiveness of cities, making them unattractive to both
All of these amenities are critical to urban economic domestic and foreign investment. For rapidly growing cities
development.42 For example, heavy traffic congestion and in Asia and Latin America, broader economic policies should
informal transportation systems constrain accessibility provide right incentives for productive and sustainable
to employment in Nairobi. Residents who rely on public growth. For example, urban and territorial planning as well
transport (minibuses known as matatu) can only access 4 as investments in infrastructure should be linked with the
per cent of opportunities within a 30-minute timeframe, objectives of structural transformation (Box 4.2).
as compared with almost double that share (7 per cent) in
Buenos Aires, Argentina.43 Once cities become crowded,
they generate massive diseconomies of scale (Chapter
6). Similarly, in Southern Asian cities, poorly managed messy urbanization undermines
urbanization creates congestion costs coupled with the potential of powerful
increased pressure on land, housing and urban services.44 agglomeration economies to
bring about prosperity, which
This kind of messy urbanization undermines the potential in turn undermines the drive
of powerful agglomeration economies to bring about towards productive urban futures
115
Box 4.2: Urban and territorial planning, infrastructure investment and structural transformation
The global view on financing development in low- and medium-income countries is changing, with the focus moving from dispersed
grants to supporting major investment in key infrastructure. Flagship programmes that take this new approach include China’s
Belt and Road Initiative, the European Union (EU)’s Global Gateway, and the Build Back Better World (B3W) initiative of the US and
Group of Seven. This shift inevitably raises question about the role of cities and their development in these large infrastructure
investment programmes given the territorial dimension of development that underpins any kind of structural transformation in
low- and medium-income countries. Linking investment in regional and urban infrastructure to structural transformation of national
economies is an important prerequisite to sustainable investment.47 The EU Global Gateway strategy, for instance, has a strong
focus on infrastructure investment that enhances connectivity at different territorial scales. Such a strategy views agglomeration
economies as fundamental factors that can kickstart a steady and sustainable process of economic development while also aiming
to reduce negative environmental issues and generate higher standards of living for the population.
UN-Habitat, as the urban focal point within the United Nations system, promotes urbanization as a vehicle for economic
development for a country, with a clear emphasis that investment in urban infrastructure and services underpins economic
transformation. In this regard, pursuing investment in urban development coupled with sound territorial planning as a mechanism
to achieve structural economic transformation can lead to more investment synergies in various sectors of economy. Territorial
analysis of planned investment in infrastructure and urban development can help achieve coherence of impact for large and
medium-size investment projects.
An example of where the United Nations can add value through the territorial dimension of economic transformation is the
Territorial-Industrial Atlas for Investment Attraction: High-potential industries in Mexico prepared by UN-Habitat and the United
Nations Industrial Development Organization in partnership with the Government of Mexico.48 This novel approach to attract foreign
investment is founded on urban and regional planning perspectives.
Lastly, achieving synergies for investments and ensuring coherence of impact can be underpinned by better coordination of public
revenue and expenditure (e.g. investing and operating infrastructure) at the national and sub-national levels and including external
finance in the complete system of public finance.49
Source: UN-Habitat Office for European Institutions Brussels.
The future of urban economies in developing country cities 4.2.4. The dilemma of unbalanced urban and
will depend on the policy decisions taken today. Looking territorial economic prosperity
ahead, policymakers at various levels of government must While megacities have long dominated the urban conversation
counter the negative impacts of poorly planned and managed and will continue to play a prominent economic role, most
urbanization and set their cities towards economic prosperity. of the future urban growth will occur in small, intermediate
If the current unsustainable trends persist, developing and secondary cities.50 However, economic growth,
countries will continue experiencing underleveraged infrastructure investments and employment opportunities
urbanization and their cities will potentially remain locked tend to be concentrated in large metropolitan areas. This
in congestion pressures for decades to come. Therefore, so-called “big city bias” and winner-takes-all urbanism
national, regional and local governments should ensure propels large places to grow economically faster than smaller
that connectivity is enhanced at the city and regional level places, which concentrates development in a small footprint
to alleviate both current and future congestion pressures as opposed to allowing for more diffused spatial development
and facilitate the exploitation of agglomeration economies, across territories. Such asymmetrical development is
thereby enabling the tremendous untapped potential of compounding the urban spatial divide, especially regarding
cities to be realized. secondary cities—whose population often face multiple
deprivations relating to income, employment, health, water,
116
Figure 4.9: Dynamics of asymmetrical development in secondary cities in developing countries
Governance and institutional deficiencies:

to formulate and implement
policies on urban economic
resilience
Weak urban economies:

Poor urban connectivity: due to lack of economic diversity
poor road and ICT infrastructure Multiple dimensions and poor competitive advantage
of spatial divide
in small, secondary
and intermediate cities
Low-priority of infrastructure
Low human capital: development by governments:
the lack of highly skilled workforce poor social, physical, and economic
undermines the competitiveness infrastructure making them
of secondary cities unattractive to investment
sanitation and housing (Chapter 3). For instance, in Sri Government at all levels should revamp local infrastructure
Lanka, both Colombo and the Western Region Megapolis and services in small and intermediate cities in order to
are better connected and have stronger and more diversified match the future capabilities needed from domestic and
economies as compared with other urban centres, which foreign firms. Doing so is a response to the call by the New
results in regional disparities in economic development.51 Urban Agenda to support the implementation of balanced
territorial development policies, including strengthening
Figure 4.9 illustrates the dynamics of asymmetrical the role of small and intermediate cities in urban economic
development in secondary and intermediate cities in development.53
developing countries. Because of “big city bias,” small,
secondary and intermediate urban areas have weak capacities
to develop and implement policies on urban economic governments must pay attention to small and
resilience. Governments do not prioritize investments in secondary cities that might be left behind or
infrastructure and services (e.g. water, sanitation, energy, otherwise ignored in national and regional
transport and housing) in these small, intermediate and economic development strategies
secondary cities. The lack of core infrastructure and services
undermine the potential comparative advantage of secondary 4.2.5. Financing urban infrastructure in cities of
cities to attract investment and retain skilled human capital. developing countries
This disinvestment makes their urban economies more easily Local and regional governments require significant amounts
succumb to future shocks and stresses. of financial resources to support their urban economies. In
Africa and Asia, estimates suggest that over the next 30 years
The message emerging from these dynamics is that investments of around 5 per cent of GDP will be required
infrastructure investments and urban planning interventions to meet the demand for infrastructure, housing and public
should not be biased towards megacities.52 Instead, services to support rapidly growing urban populations.54 At
governments must pay attention to small and secondary the same, most city governments in developing regions face
cities that might be left behind or otherwise ignored in severe barriers to financing key infrastructure investments
national and regional economic development strategies. in line with SDGs, particularly doing so in an inclusive
117
Figure 4.10: Own source revenue per capita of local governments by country income group (US$)
Source: Based on data from UN-Habitat et al, 2021.
manner that reaches the most vulnerable urban populations develop creditworthy projects. Currently, only 20 per cent of
(Chapters 6 and 8).55 Managing own-source revenue systems the largest 500 cities in developing countries are considered
in developing countries remain a major challenge; low-income creditworthy, undermining their capacity to fund key urban
countries generate around US$12 per capita per year from infrastructure investments.63
own-source revenue in local governments, compared with
US$2,944 per capita per year in high-income countries (Figure The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly weakened the
4.10: Own source revenue per capita of local governments fiscal capacity of local governments in developing countries.
by country income group (US$)). For example, Iwo, Nigeria; For example, based on projections early in the pandemic,
Lucena City, Philippines; and Pekalongan, Indonesia, raise African cities were expected to lose 65 per cent of their
about US$14, US$54 and US$101 per resident per year, local revenue.64 If current trends persist, the investment
respectively.56 Given the significant investments needed to capacities of African cities could be severely devastated,
build sustainable and resilient infrastructures, there is an undermining the ability of municipal governments to build
urgent need to build adequate fiscal capacity. resilient urban economies and productive urban futures.
In Colombia, there was a 38 per cent nationwide decline
City governments in developing regions largely rely on in municipal property taxes in the first half of 2020.65 This
intergovernmental transfers, and to some degree their own unprecedented financial pressure on cities in developing
internally generated revenue (e.g. property taxes, planning countries may continue or deepen in the post-pandemic
and licensing fees), in order to fund capital projects. recovery phase. Without decisive action, these trends
Intergovernmental transfers account for 90 per cent of could potentially paralyze cities’ capacity to reactivate their
local revenues in Kenya, Tanzania, and Rwanda. This figure economies towards productive urban futures.
demonstrates very limited power and capacity by cities to
collect their own revenues.57 Property taxes account for only Overall, effective urban financing in developing countries
20 per cent of financial resources in developing countries.58 depends on more nuanced approaches to fiscal decentralization,
as well as the capacity of local governments to mobilize
Trends across regions are a cause for concern with regards endogenous resources. Collaboration among various levels
to sustainable urban finance. The tax base in Asia-Pacific of government, even if fluid and negotiated, ensures more
cities continues to contract, which undermines the ability effective outcomes of investment in urban development.66 In
of city governments to invest in key urban infrastructure.59 this context, improving investment planning, strengthening
In countries such as Afghanistan, Maldives and Nepal, the local revenues, and coordinating national, local, and external
central government sets all local revenue rates,60 undermining financing are key policy streams helping improve effectiveness
the flexibility of municipalities to exploit the potential of their of public and private investment in urban development (Box
tax bases. In Pakistan, large cities can only mobilize 7 per 4.2). When planned responsibly and based on sound, but not
cent of their financial resources from own-source revenues.61 necessarily exhaustive, cost/benefit analysis and supported
Similarly, the collection of property taxes in Latin American by adequate regulations, the financing and development of
countries is a paltry 0.3 per cent of GDP.62 Cities in developing infrastructure can be used as an engine for the development
countries also face constraints in accessing city-level debt as of institutions, policies, and capacities at all levels and across
most lack the necessary revenue autonomy and capacity to all sectors of governance in these countries.67
118
4.3. Urban Economies of Cities in Large and more diversified labour markets enable firms
Developed Countries to withstand both positive and negative shocks by quickly
adjusting their labour profiles in light of economic changes. In
This section analyses the structure of urban economies the Canadian province of Ontario, large and more diversified
in developed countries, highlighting both strengths and metropolitan regions such as the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)
weaknesses and implications for the future of cities. Cities of have a strong economic base to withstand the impact of the
developed countries have unique features: diversified urban failing traditional manufacturing sector.70 Cities in the GTA are
economies, high urban productivity, ageing populations, already embracing the new wave of creative and technology-led
high value-added sectors, technology driven industries and economies. In Australia, mid-sized towns have diversified their
increased number of shrinking cities among others. The economies beyond their single industrial bases (e.g. mining
ways in which these characteristics shape the future of and manufacturing) to reduce the vulnerability of their urban
resilient urban economies and productive urban futures economies to shocks.71 During the global financial crisis of
are discussed, as well as the state of financing for urban 2007–2008, major capital regions in Europe with diversified
economies in developed countries. high-value functions were able to generate more, or at least
lose fewer, jobs than their respective country averages,72
4.3.1. Economic structure of developed country demonstrating agility and resilience to withstand and recover
cities and implications for the urban future from economic shocks.
Urban economies in developed countries are more equipped
to bounce back after shocks, as currently witnessed in
the case of the COVID-19 pandemic where many hard hit Faced with the COVID-19 crisis, European
metropolitan areas are now once again showing strong local and regional authorities exhibited varying
economic indicators. This resiliency is because cities degrees of vulnerability depending on their
in developed countries have more diversified economic economic geographies and their ability to
structures, stronger economic foundations, are more withstand external shocks
resourceful and can quickly deploy policy measures in
partnership with national government to revamp their Faced with the COVID-19 crisis, European local and regional
economy. Megacities such as New York, London, Sydney and authorities exhibited varying degrees of vulnerability
Paris are primarily “production cities,” where most workers depending on their economic geographies and their ability
are employed in manufacturing or tradable services like to withstand external shocks. Sofia, Bulgaria, with its large
finance, business services and creative industries. These share of services, especially in high-tech and trade, was
cities generate significant productivity thereby putting them more flexible and less affected by the pandemic-induced
in a strong position to attract firms, people and resources. economic stress. Overall, unemployment remained below
10 per cent in large municipalities in the country because
of opportunities for teleworking, largely supported by better
cities in developed countries information and technology (ICT) infrastructure.73 Although
have more diversified economic most cities in advanced economies are more diversified,
structures, stronger economic there are regional variations. Tyrol and Salzburg, Austria,
foundations, are more resourceful were significantly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic
and can quickly deploy policy because their economies are specialized for the tourism
measures industry. Similarly, in Finland, both large and smaller cities
dependent on tourism had a comparable experience.74
Overall, urban productivity—measured by the total GDP These trends demonstrate that overdependence on a single
generated by industry and services divided by total urban economic sector could potentially set urban economies on a
population—is high in developed country cities, averaging downward spiral in the event of economic shocks.
US$50,000 per capita.68 Cities like New York and Los
Angles, for example, are highly productive because they 4.3.2. Shrinking cities and the future of urban
have larger metropolitan labour markets where workers have economies
access to sizeable, more diversified pool of jobs while firms Advanced economies, especially those in Eastern Asia,
have access to a larger, more diversified pool of workers69— Europe and North America, face the challenge of shrinking
thus, maximizing agglomeration economies. cities (see Chapter 2). Shrinking cities are characterized by
119
Restaurant in downtown Graz, Austria © Anton_Ivanov/Shutterstock
economic downturns and employment outflows, which leave 4.3.3. Financing urban economies in developed
them with predominantly ageing populations who are less country cities
adaptable to emerging economic trends.75 In such cities, Advanced countries usually have well-developed capital
jobs in different sectors such as traditional manufacturing markets, where debt and equity financing instruments can
and mining are disappearing76 because of deindustrialization, be deployed to fund ambitious infrastructure projects80 and
structural changes in urban economies and shifts in the provide reliable basic services. Several municipalities have
global economy. For example, the relocation of automobile investment-grade credit ratings, typically linked to property-
manufacturing firms to developing countries (e.g. Mexico) based tax revenues. Cities in advanced economies already
was a contributing factor to municipal bankruptcy in once leverage debt. For example, the US municipal debt market
booming manufacturing cities such as Detroit.77 is worth approximately US$4 trillion.81 High per capita
incomes also mean that many infrastructure investments can
Likewise, cities in Eastern Europe and Eastern Asia are generate revenues that enable cost recovery and sustained
shrinking due to a combination of multiple factors, including economic growth.
ageing population, economic restructuring and declining urban
economies.78 In Australia, the loss of employment in mining However, cities in developed countries grapple with investment
towns leads to a downward spiral of massive outmigration from needs to replace ageing infrastructure like water and sewerage
once booming mining towns.79 The loss of skills, knowledge pipelines and new transport links, which often requires
and innovation from shrinking cities has dire consequences billions of dollars. Australia has invested sufficiently over the
for the future of urban economies in these places. past several years to meet or exceed their infrastructure needs
and will arguably be able to spend less going forward than they
Going forward, in order to encourage the “optimistic have in the past.82 Conversely, countries such as Germany,
scenario” described in Chapter 1, urban leaders in shrinking the UK and the US face major gaps between their current
cities should plan for future growth while anticipating spending commitments and estimated needs.83 For instance,
shrinkage by deploying a combination of urban policy and New York City has more than 1,000 miles of water pipe that
investment instruments to revive urban economies, including are more than 100 years old.84
embracing the creative and technology-based sectors.
Economic diversification becomes urgent to save these Despite their advanced economies, the impact of the
places from becoming “ghost cities.” If cities continue to COVID-19 pandemic on municipal revenues in developed
experience urban shrinkage without any remedial measures, countries has also been catastrophic. Local and regional
future economic growth is bound to be curtailed in multiple authorities in the European Union have faced remarkable
ways. For example, a rise in vacant buildings reduces the pressure on their budgets as they make substantial increases
capital value of real estate and creates a diminishing tax base. in expenditures to sustain their local economies (Table 4.1).
120
Table 4.1: COVID-19 induced municipal revenue losses in selected European Union countries
EU country Estimated losses in local and regional authority revenues (in Euros)
France Estimated net loss of revenue for all local and regional authorities was €5 billion (which constitutes 2.4 per cent of operating income).
Municipalities suffered a sharp drop in tariff and tax revenues.
Germany In 2020, municipalities experienced €6 billion (5.7 per cent) loss in tax revenues compared to 2019; business tax dropped by €5 billion; user
fees fell by €1.4 billion (8.8 per cent) in the first half of 2020.
Italy Estimated €8.4 billion of losses or 23 per cent of 2020 municipality revenues compared to 2019. The biggest loss, €3.5 billion, is from the
Single City Tax covering property (-10 per cent) and waste tax (-23 per cent).
The Netherlands Municipal revenue losses were estimated to be €1.02 billion. About one-third of municipalities entered 2021 with negative budget balance
having exhausted their reserves.
Poland In 2020, large Polish cities experienced €2.4 billion drop in local revenue. Significant losses were experienced in tax revenues mainly from
corporate and personal income taxes.
Bulgaria Overall, total loss in Bulgarian municipality revenue in 2020–2022 would be 30 per cent compared to 2019. This corresponds to €519 million
in 2020, €404 million in 2021 and €360 million in 2022.
Ireland The decline in local revenue was projected to be €228 million (6.4 per cent) of which €78 million was lost from parking charges and planning
fees and €150 million from uncollectable commercial property taxes.
Source: Prepared based on data from European Union, 2021.
In the US, the pandemic triggered unprecedented damage stresses. At the same time, as illustrated in Box 4.3, tapping
to municipal fiscal health. For example, recent projections resources at the national and supranational levels remain vital
suggest that 411 Florida municipalities would lose US$5.1 to effectively addressing present and future urban challenges
billion from 2019 pre-pandemic levels in fiscal years 2021 and fostering sustainable urban development.
through 2023.85 In 2020, nationwide estimates pointed to
a gloomy picture in the US, where cities, towns and villages
were projected to face a US$360 billion budget shortfall
from 2020 through 2022.86 However, by mid-2021, some Box 4.3: European Regional Development Fund
of the cities and states that were facing bankruptcy had cash empowering urban and territorial authorities
surplus due federal relief funds.87 In Australia, Melbourne’s
lost revenue due the COVID-19 pandemic for the period The EU Cohesion Policy is at the heart of this funding
2020–2021 is estimated to be AU$83 million.88 support and the fostering of strategic, integrated and
inclusive approach to address todays’ challenges across
Cities with diverse revenue and economic structures have cities in Europe. Its instruments for the ongoing period
a better chance of withstanding external shocks than those 2021-27 follow a dedicated policy objective implemented
that are less diverse in their revenue generating sources. For through territorial and local development strategies. As
instance, in the US, cities with both vulnerable economic example of supranational financing, European Regional
profiles (greater than 15 per cent share of employment in Development Fund through its instrument of European
high-risk industries) and a tax structure that is highly reliant Urban Initiative supports greater empowerment of local,
on elastic sources of own revenue (greater than 25 per urban and territorial authorities by transfers of funds for
cent share of general fund revenues) were more impacted public investment. It will mobilise investments in urban
by economic shocks compared to those with alternative areas: a minimum 8 per cent of the ERDF resources in
economic and fiscal structures.89 With weakened fiscal each EU Member State must be invested in priorities
capacity, various local governments cut investments in and projects selected by cities themselves and based on
infrastructure and key urban services. their own sustainable urban development strategies. It
serves a priority of bringing investment closer to citizens,
Looking ahead, it is critically important for cities and supporting locally-led development and sustainable urban
subnational governments to diversify their revenue portfolios development across the EU.
by combining both traditional and innovative revenue sources Source: European Commission, 2021.
to cushion their fiscal health against future shocks and
121
4.4. Towards Resilient Urban Economies the informal economy and support active ageing to create
and Productive Urban Futures decent and productive jobs. They should prioritize balanced
territorial economic development to ensure that no space
Sustainable and inclusive urban prosperity and opportunities is lagging behind. These transformative pathways should be
for all is one of the key transformative commitments laid backed by sustainable and innovative financing instruments,
out in the New Urban Agenda. The NUA emphasises that resilient infrastructure investments and a vibrant human
cities and human settlements should be places of equal capital base (Figure 4.11). Urban economic resilience is about
opportunities, allowing people to live healthy, productive, recognizing that risks and uncertainties are interconnected,
prosperous and fulfilling lives. In line with this vision, so interventions should be as well.91
what is needed now and in the coming years is for cities
and subnational governments to prioritize building resilient The implementation of these transformative pathways for
urban economies against future shocks and provide tangible urban economic resilience and productive urban futures
solutions for the whole community—in short, leaving no one should be integrated, holistic and coordinated across
behind.90 Prioritizing resilient investments and interventions different levels of government while at the same time
that address the root causes of multiple vulnerabilities will addressing challenges related to governance, socioeconomic
generate a triple dividend: help cities boost their local development, funding and financing. Not every policymaker
economies, improve equity, and prepare urban communities will find all the transformative pathways appropriate to their
to withstand future shocks, stresses and risks. context, but some pathways will be. Thus, city leaders should
determine the right mix of pathways that are compatible with
Figure 4.11 illustrates the key transformative pathways their context given existing national circumstances, available
to building resilient urban economies and productive resources and institutional capacities. Additionally, cities
urban futures. Cities should reimagine the future of urban cannot build economic resilience alone. As we move into the
economies through economic diversification, transition future, there is a need for strong coalition building, mobilizing
to circular economies, prioritize sustainable urban and and galvanizing support from different stakeholders such
territorial planning, and mainstream resilience in all as local and international financial institutions, the private
major urban programs. These resilient interventions and sector, development banks, community and civil society
investments should harness the untapped potential of groups, and national government entities.
Amsterdam, Netherlands © lornet/Shutterstock
122
Figure 4.11: Transformative pathways towards resilient urban economies and productive urban futures
STATUS QUO DESIRED OUTCOMES

RE-IMAGINE RESILIENT URBAN ECONOMIES
Low levels of economic Agile, diversified, and resilient
Economies urban economies that can
and economic fragility withstand shocks and stresses
Inefficient and unsustainable Circular Economy as Catalyst for Greener, equitable and
Resilient Urban Economies sustainable economic
recovery
Poorly planned and Sustainable Urban and

Territorial Planning
catalyst for urban prosperity
INCLUDE THE EXCLUDED

Resilient, and inclusive urban
of the informal economy Informal Sector
urban futures
Urban shrinkage coupled with Harnessing active aging as an

opportunity for new decent jobs
and inclusive economic growth
Urban shrinkage coupled with Inclusive urban economies and

Socially and Economically resilient livelihoods for marginalized
Marginalized Groups
Balanced Urban and Territorial Equitable economic growth

Economic Development across territories, where
economic prosperity
ENABLE CHANGE
Inadequate, unpredictable, and Sustainable Municipal Financing
unreliable revenue sources unlocked for sustainable
urban infrastructure
Talent and Skills Development A stronger human capital

can adapt to changes in
the urban economy
Under investment in key Urban Infrastructure Investments

urban infrastructure
123
4.4.1. Economic diversification: a critical pillar for services like restaurants and hair salons. The city focused on
building resilient urban economies balancing the growth of existing industries with the attraction
The COVID-19 pandemic is a vivid reminder that overreliance and development of emerging automotive and entertainment
on a single sector, like tourism, increases the fragility of businesses through sector-specific support strategies such
urban economies. Moving forward, cities should consider as provision of market intelligence and dedicated worker-
economic diversification as a core feature of building resilient training programs. Ultimately, diversification of Changsha’s
urban economies (Chapter 10). The need for economic urban economy has reduced its vulnerability to economic
diversification and structural transformation has never been shocks and strengthened its local fiscal sustainability.98
more urgent due to the multiple crises confronting cities. The
relatively low levels of economic diversification in developing From the above case studies, it is clear that successful
country cities, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, is a key economic diversification cushions urban economies against
factor in their vulnerability to external shocks.92 The NUA future volatilities and provides a more stable and progressive
acknowledges the need to transition progressively to more path toward inclusive growth. Learning from the pandemic,
productivity through high-value-added sectors by promoting Windsor, Canada, has adopted a bold and ambitious economic
diversification, technological innovations and creating quality diversification strategy for future growth (Box 4.4).99 The
and productive jobs.93 city government acknowledges that diversification beyond
manufacturing is the key to its economic future.
Economic diversification provides different economic
outputs, thereby strengthening the ability of cities to
drive sustainable growth by creating more jobs, increasing Box 4.4: Windsor’s L.I.F.T economic
household incomes and attracting investments that diversification strategy
strengthens the resilience of urban economies against future
shocks.94 For example, Dubai, United Arab Emirates, has As a mid-sized city in southwestern Ontario, Windsor is
been successful in diversifying its urban economy to reduce the original home of the Canadian car industry, with a
dependency on commodity resources aided by expansion in concentration of highly skilled manufacturers. However,
tourism, real estate and trade. This transformation has been successive city administrations have always explored
supported through expansion in infrastructure, upgrading of different ways to diversify Windsor’s economy. Recently,
financial services sector and establishment of free zones to the city prepared an ambitious economic diversification
improve its competitiveness.95 strategy, which has four pillars: location, infrastructure,
future economy and talent (L.I.F.T). Windsor plans to
In Colombia, the City of Bucaramanga has been effective maximize its strategic location, which links it to key
in diversifying its economy. The city’s economy was US markets. In terms of infrastructure, the plan is to
previously dominated by lower-value-added industries such revitalize downtown districts and improve mobility. The
as clothing, footwear and poultry production. However, city also proposes to develop more diverse housing stock
it is now home to knowledge-intensive activities such as that appeals to young families, with a housing target for
precision manufacturing, logistics, biomedical research downtown that helps drive revitalization.
and development labs, and business process outsourcing,
as well a vibrant tourism sector.96 This success was not For the future economy, strategies include protecting
automatic; it was driven by coalition building and galvanizing Windsor’s current strengths in the auto sector and
local stakeholders towards a shared vision. In addition, diversifying into adjacent sectors, such as border
Bucaramanga has some of Colombia’s highest levels of human technology and building expertise in software and
capital, including both technical and management skills, cybersecurity for autonomous vehicles. With regard to
which has been a strong driver of its economic diversification talent, the city plans to train, retain and attract the best
agenda. Because of its successful economic diversification, talent from across Canada and the world. An appropriate
Bucaramanga is doing well in recovering its economy from mix of talent, innovators and entrepreneurs will be critical
the COVID-19 pandemic.97 for driving the city’s economic future. The City of Windsor
has also devised a mix of investment incentives to attract
Similarly, in Changsha, China, urban leaders successfully new investors into the local economy.
transformed the city’s economic structure, which was Source: City of Windsor, 2020.
previously dominated by low-value-added, non-tradable
124
Economic diversification should be backed by a menu of implemented, these measures could generate spillover effects
support measures such as smart regulations, investment with other sectors such as agriculture and services, setting
incentives, infrastructure improvements, land provision for urban economies on a more positive path towards sustainable
new industries, skill development, innovation districts, and economic growth (Figure 4.11).
access to finance for enterprises.100 Together, these strategies
create competitive cities that can turn around the economic While urban policymakers can learn from some of these
fortunes of urban areas. The future of urban economies successful experiences, there is no “one size fits all”
in post-industrial cities depends on the implementation of blueprint for economic diversification; government action
context-specific growth policies. For example, faced with and policy choices should be contextually calibrated
industrial closures and population decline, Katowice, Poland, based on existing economic structures and institutional
has embraced technologically driven economic growth and capacities. If urban economies become diversified, they will
cultural development to diversify its local economy.101 optimize agglomeration economies, promote innovation
To achieve urban resurgence in the context of population and strengthen urban productivity. Recent shocks like the
decline, proactive industrial policies will be urgently needed COVID-19 pandemic have shown that failure to heed the call
for “rapid and better-targeted economic restructuring to for economic diversification will have serious consequences
create a competitive manufacturing sector (endowed with for the future of urban economies. There are already
new high-tech firms) and to catalyse growth interdependence warning signs in some regions and any further inaction will
with modern local services.”102 exacerbate the economic fragility of cities and undermine
prospects for productive urban futures.
In the same vein, Africa’s ambitious development programme
Agenda 2063 strongly emphasizes industrialization and 4.4.2. The circular economy: a new frontier for
structural transformation.103 In order to achieve this structural resilient urban economies
transformation agenda, governments will have to put in place The circular economy presents an opportunity for cities
appropriate policies to support the diversification of their and regions to reimagine and achieve better environmental
urban economies. These policies should include supporting the quality and increased resource efficiency. As discussed
manufacturing sector to create decent jobs and enhance urban in Chapter 5, if cities successfully transition to a circular
productivity while at the same time reducing market barriers economy, it could create new jobs, especially for vulnerable
to promote the growth of young firms.104 If successfully communities (Figure 4.12).
Figure 4.12: Main objectives for cities and regions to transition to a circular economy
Create new business

models
Improve environmental
quality
Source: Adapted from OECD, 2019a, p. 4.
125
Even before the pandemic, city leaders in Europe were already The NUA emphasizes transition to the circular economy in
exploring new ways of enhancing long-term urban prosperity the face of new and emerging challenges confronting urban
in urban centres.105 London, Paris, Amsterdam and Milan systems.107 Furthermore, in this transformative agenda,
have been at the forefront of experimenting with the urban Member States committed themselves to developing vibrant,
circular economy. London was one of the first largest cities sustainable and inclusive urban economies and promoting
in developed countries to implement a circular economy “sustainable consumption and production patterns and
transformation agenda. London’s Waste and Recycling Board fostering an enabling environment for businesses and
estimates that the transition to a more effective economy innovation, as well as livelihoods.”108
could be worth US$10 billion annually to the city’s economy.
The city estimates that transitioning to a circular economy Considering these commitments, the circular economy holds
could create over 12,000 net new jobs through the reuse, great potential for a green recovery and a sustainable urban
remanufacturing and maintenance industries.106 The goal future. Cities and regions should play a key role as promoters,
in London was to enhance urban economic resilience while facilitators, and enablers of circular economy. Adequate
promoting resource efficiency as well as adapting the city to conditions should be in place to unlock this potential, which
new economic realities. can be achieved through the 3Ps framework of people, places
and policies (Figure 4.13). For a transformation to the circular
economy to happen, it requires behavioural and cultural
The NUA emphasizes transition to the circular change towards different production and consumption
economy in the face of new and emerging pathways as well as new business and governance models
challenges confronting urban systems in a shared responsibility across levels of government and
stakeholders. Successful circular economy policies create
complementarities across water, waste, energy, transport,
Figure 4.13: The 3Ps framework for adopting the circular economy in cities
MEGATRENDS
POR TUNI T
O P I ES
EM CHANG
ST
SY
Economic
Trend
Technological
People Policies
Urbanization
Places Climate
Change
Environmental
Socio-economic
Demographic
Growth
Source: Adapted from OECD, 2019a, p. 7.
126
housing and land use. Finally, the inflows and outflows of provision of adequate infrastructure and basic services. For
materials, resources and products require a reflection on the example, if governments continue to underinvest in public
appropriate scale at which the circular economy is applied and transport systems, there will be significant congestion costs,
on functional linkages across the urban-rural continuum.109 which undermine economic growth and urban productivity.
Transitioning to a circular economy is expected to increase Going forward, local and regional governments should
the average disposable income of individuals by reducing prioritize the sound and responsive planning and management
costs and prices of products and services. For example, the of urban areas to ensure sustainable urban prosperity.
average disposable income for EU households would rise by These interventions are in sync with the clarion call of
€3,000, or 11 per cent more than the current development the NUA to “optimize the spatial dimension of the urban
path, by 2030.110 This boost would also translate to a 11 per form and deliver the positive outcomes of urbanization.”112
cent GDP increase by 2030. Circular economy practices will Additionally, agglomeration can also occur regionally, making
likely have a big economic impact, especially in developing coordination between city authorities for land-use planning
countries, by opening opportunities for new decent and critical to promote long-term growth and productive
productive jobs.111 urban futures.113 If local and regional governments fail to
promote better planning and management of urbanization
4.4.3. Sustainable urban and territorial planning: a processes, cities could be locked in cycles of massive
key driver for productive urban futures congestion pressures, which would be detrimental to the
Sustainable urban and territorial planning is critical for productivity and competitiveness of urban economies. This
building resilient urban economies and productive urban could ultimately tarnish any prospects of resilient urban
futures. Cities that are well-planned and managed better economies and productive urban futures as promoted in the
optimize and reap the benefits of agglomeration economies. SDGs and the NUA.
If cities continue to grow in a disconnected and fragmented
manner, the opportunities to leverage economies of scale will
be missed. As enshrined in the New Urban Agenda, urban Cities that are well-planned and
and territorial planning is a fundamental driver for sustained managed better optimize and reap
and inclusive economic growth, which provides an enabling the benefits of agglomeration
framework for new economic opportunities and the timely economies
Free public park pier at Green Space Located Within Hudson River Park, NYC,USA © MNAphotography/Shutterstock
127
4.4.4. Recognizing and supporting the informal urban economic statistics, and extending relief to individuals
sector for resilient urban economies and businesses in times of crisis. Resilience building should
The informal sector is a vibrant economic force in developing prioritize formalization policies and measures to strengthen
country cities, and policymakers at various level of government the productivity of informal enterprises through facilitating
cannot continue to remain numb to this reality. Therefore, access to affordable credit and municipal infrastructure
moving forward, a transformative urban economic agenda improvements that address the underlying vulnerabilities in
should focus on reimagining a future urban economy that the informal economy.115
is more robust, just, ethical and equitable (Chapters 3 and
10).114 The continued exclusion of informal sector workers
is inconsistent with commitments in the NUA (para. 59), Resilience building should
where global leaders pledged to recognize the contribution prioritize formalization policies
of the poor in the informal economy. and measures to strengthen
the productivity of informal
If cities are to leave no one behind, then a paradigm shift enterprises
is urgently required: urban planning and policy frameworks
should be reformed to create more equitable urban futures, Figure 4.14 illustrates different interventions that can build
where the informal sector is recognized as a legitimate the resilience of the informal sector to future shocks. The
contributor to urban economies and social protection as first two interventions relate to making urban planning and
well as other support measures are extended to workers in policies inclusive as well as empowering informal economic
the sector (Chapter 3). Such interventions could include actors to demand their economic rights such as safe working
creating more legitimate workspaces for informal businesses, environments. The last two focus on addressing specific
facilitating their integration with regional supply chains and economic challenges confronting the informal economy such
regional markets, accounting for informal sector workers in as access to markets, finance and business opportunities.
Figure 4.14: Policy interventions to build the resilience of the informal sector
Making urban planning and Interventions targeting specific economic

policies inclusive related challenges
Organizing for Changing policies Promoting access Improving access

equitable access and institutions to to quality jobs to to resources to
to economic  better protect and increase economic foster enterprise
opportunities enable the informal economny mobility growth and resilience of the
to thrive informal economy
Organizing informal sector Creating urban policies Promoting development of Making business resources
workers can empower and institutions that skills and creating new available can spur growth
them to demand econom- promote and protect the jobs through inclusive of informal enterprises and
ic rights and equitable informal economy can business models can improve their resilience to
access to livelihood improve livelihoods, offer improve livelihoods and economic shocks. Other
opportunities, safe greater legal protection, contribute to economic interventions could include
working conditions safer working conditions mobility of informal promoting access to
and better wages. workers markets, finance, skills, and
infrastructure
128
These measures should be tailored to meet the needs of

specific groups of informal workers (e.g. street traders,
waste pickers and home-based workers) who bear the brunt
of economic insecurity. There are emerging practices of
informal sector integration. South Africa adopted waste
picker integration guidelines in 2020 recognizing that waste
pickers have practical experience with adapting quickly to
new value chains and market opportunities that can help
cities maximize recycling. Similarly, some cities in Colombia,
Argentina and India have successfully integrated informal
waste pickers into their solid waste management value chains
to support door-to-door recycling.116 This move has unlocked
economic productivity and secured livelihoods. In Maputo,
waste pickers were registered as cooperatives and integrated
into formal collective service, which generated full-time
employment for 250 people.117 Integrating informal workers
in urban systems coupled with other support measures can
boost the productivity of informal enterprises and strengthen
their contribution to resilient urban economies.
The successful integration of informal sector workers

into urban policies will contribute towards SDG Target An elderly couple in Portsmouth, Hampshire, UK © Shutterstock
8.3, which calls for the adoption of development-oriented
policies to propel the growth of small and medium-sized
enterprises including the informal sector. Failure to support jobs and inclusive and sustainable economic growth.
and harness the potential of the informal economy could Taking action is urgent given that 43.2 per cent of all older
lead to an unprecedented labour market crisis118 and curtail populations (65+ years) are in the OECD region,120 with
the drive toward resilient urban economies and productive significant implications for labour supply in the future.
urban futures.
There are emerging practices, where cities are harnessing
4.4.5. Supporting ageing populations in urban ageing population to support their urban economies. In
areas Calgary, Canada, the Retired Employee Employment Pool
The ability of municipalities to meet the challenges of engages retired city employees for limited-term projects that
demographic change is important for creating inclusive require particular skills or expertise. Other measures include
resilient urban economies and productive urban futures.119 creating opportunities for older workers to remain in the
As highlighted in Chapter 2, developed world cities are labour force to avoid labour shortages in ageing societies. For
likely to have a significant proportion of greying population. instance, Toyama, Japan, implemented agricultural training
Therefore, going forward, cities should formulate tailored to increase the employability of older people, as a response
policies and programmes to support ageing populations in to the decline in the number of the city’s farm workers.121
line with the SDGs, as well as the New Urban Agenda’s Yokohama, Japan, has taken concerted measures to integrate
commitment to address the economic and spatial implications ageing strategies with its economic development plans and
of ageing populations and leverage active ageing for decent policies for sustainability. The City’s emphasis on well-
being and economic prosperity has resulted in increased
attractiveness and urban competitiveness.
The ability of municipalities
to meet the challenges of The future of resilient urban economies depends on the
demographic change is important ability of cities to develop policies that create new jobs and
for creating inclusive resilient harness the experiences of older populations while at the
urban economies and productive same time implementing strategic actions aimed at retaining
urban futures young and skilled persons while reducing their outflow
129
from cities. Cities grappling with an ageing population thus providing a conducive environment for job creation
could also strategically incorporate newly arriving migrants and income diversification. With effective management
into local labour markets to counter negative population these cities can provide greater investment and business
growth, ensuring sustained future economic growth that, in opportunities and facilitate transformation across the urban-
turn, is required to finance local infrastructure services.122 rural continuum.128
Together, these measures will promote resilient, inclusive
and sustainable urban economic growth. Noteworthy, in 2021, under the Italian Presidency, the
G20 recognized the significant, but often unexplored and
4.4.6. Targeted interventions for socially and underutilized potential of intermediary cities in achieving
economically marginalized groups the SDGs at the local level. In this regard, the G20 Platform
The COVID-19 pandemic has aggravated the vulnerabilities on SDG Localisation and Intermediary Cities (G20 PLIC)
of specific groups such as minorities, migrants, indigenous was established to facilitate the exchange of good practices
peoples, women and people with disabilities. The pandemic that strengthen intermediary cities and rural-urban linkages
has demonstrated the urgency of effective and robust social in developing countries.129 Additionally, to advance
protection programs for urban economic resilience and balanced territorial development that also strengthens the
recovery.123 Gazing into the future, developing a range of socioeconomic status of these cities, UN-Habitat has been
tailored economic support and relief packages to informal supporting the implementation of national urban policies
workers, vulnerable urban populations and at-risk sectors (NUPs) in 56 Member States.130 In advocating for balanced
is vital for building resilient urban economies. Bangladesh’s territorial development—as aimed for in SDG Target 11.a—
2020 Urban Social Protection Strategy and Action Plan sets these urban policies are a priority and a driver of sustainable
out plans for expanding social protection to urban areas, national development.
including the design of a conditional cash transfer programme
for the urban poor, especially those living in slums.124 Today, various countries are scaling up efforts to support their
intermediate cities. For example, through the Secondary
Cities and subnational governments can also create tailored Cities Support Program, Ghana deployed World Bank loans
strategies that respond to different forms of vulnerability to its municipal assemblies in order to promote economic
as well as unexpected shocks. These measures should be development of intermediate cities.131 This programme
nuanced and wide-ranging to ensure that the different risks acknowledges the need to address disparities in Ghana’s
associated with gender, age, disability, ethnicity, migratory urban system, where economic growth and employment
status and other characteristics are effectively identified and opportunities are concentrated in Greater Accra and the
addressed in urban welfare programmes.125 Social protection Kumasi regions at the expense of intermediate cities.132
strengthens households’ ability to invest and take productive Finland, Laos and Turkey supported smaller population centres
risks, which boosts livelihoods and increases economic through regional development programmes. Investing in
resilience.126 Thus, urban-sensitive social protection could secondary cities could enhance their productivity and ignite
potentially be a powerful tool for promoting inclusive urban their potential to add value to metropolitan economies.
economies (Chapters 1 and 3).
4.4.8. Sustainable and innovative municipal finance
4.4.7. Balanced urban and territorial economic for resilient urban futures
development Sustainable and innovative municipal finance is a catalyst
The NUA encourages governments to promote balanced for urban economic resilience and productive urban futures.
territorial development to reduce disparities within the urban Cities must diversify their revenue streams by mobilizing
system. Secondary cities connect 62 per cent of the world’s innovative revenue sources. The COVID-19 pandemic has
population living in smaller cities, towns, and rural areas, shown that overreliance on traditional revenue sources
and the 22 per cent that live in metropolitan regions.127 like central government transfer could have potentially
Going forward, it is important for governments to prioritize crippling effects on the fiscal health of cities. Thus, the
balanced economic development, especially in ‘left behind’ need for structural policies to bolster growth and enhance
secondary cities, while addressing territorial disparities in local revenue as well as measures that mitigate vulnerability
infrastructure and basic services. These intermediary cities to shocks.133 It is important to address how urban futures
are hubs for provision of goods and services to the hinterland can be adequately financed in the face of dwindling local
and are instrumental in structuring urban-rural linkages, government revenues, increasing national budget deficits
130
and decreasing foreign investment in certain contexts, If implemented, this could result in significant economies
among other fiscal constraints. of scope and scale, achieving much higher impacts, gaining
more private sector leverage and buy-in than small individual
Importantly, cities will be on a path to resilience when the grant schemes.135
objectives and programmes undertaken by such financing are
aligned with sustainability ambitions. The Local Government In Sub-Saharan Africa, there are emerging innovations
Association in the UK, for instance, proposed the Sustainable in municipal revenue mobilization to address gaps in
Urban Futures Fund, which is potentially a game changer infrastructure investments. For instance, Mzuzu, Malawi,
in terms of building back better. This fund is expected to an intermediate city that historically lacked adequate central
provide long-term, large-scale funding for integrated urban government transfers, implemented a revenue mobilization
recovery programmes to improve economic vitality of cities. programme, which deployed a fit-for-capacity property
The financial resources could be used to tackle priority valuation system that resulted in a seven-fold increase in
infrastructure needs (Figure 4.15). This fund could be revenues.136 Municipal government in Teresina, Brazil, has
applied to implement place-based integrated programmes to implemented a reprioritization of existing municipal budgets
promote sustainable economic growth and recovery after the in order to increase the availability of finance through
COVID-19 pandemic, thereby strengthening the resilience restructuring own-source revenue arrangements to mobilize
of urban economies. additional resources through new sources or expanding
some of the existing ones.137
However, context matters. Such innovative funding
instruments could be tailored to other jurisdictions The other innovative financing instrument which cities could
considering existing social, economic and political climates. leverage on is land value capture. This has been successfully
It would require massive domestic resource mobilization and implemented in cities like Hargeisa, Somaliland (Box 4.5)
strong intergovernmental collaborations and political will.134 and Bogotá, Colombia, with significant economic gains. In
Figure 4.15: Pillars of the Sustainable Urban Futures Fund
RESTRUCTURING
Enable successful economic restructuring,
human capital/assets
AGILE PLACES
Deliver places that work –
SUSTAINABLE URBAN for residents, businesses,
long-term growth FUTURES FUND
5–10-year funding Economy, enterprise,
inclusion, sustainability, housing,
infrastructure
economic development
unemployment; environment
INCLUSIVE
A recovery that benefits all funding SUSTAINABLE
residents – and improves ZERO
CO2 Sustainable growth and a
outcomes for more zero-carbon future
vulnerable/low-income
Source: Adapted from Local Government Association, 2021.
131
Securing a Greener Urban Future
Box 4.5: Innovative municipal finance mobilization using land value capture in Hargeisa, Somaliland
To capture the gains of rapid urbanization, Hargeisa city government has implemented a system of “in-kind” land value capture or
exaction. With this system, landowners on the outskirts of the city who apply to convert their land from rural to urban land use must
provide the city government with 30 per cent of the asset if their application is approved. In this way, the city can access land for
needed public infrastructure to service a growing city. At the same time, rent from this land can offer the city a valuable source of
additional income to pay for the required infrastructure. The Hargeisa case study also shows that planning for future expansion is not
only useful for capturing the gains from rapid urbanization through exaction, but also improves future urban investment.
Source: UN-Habitat et al, 2021.
Bogotá, a betterment levy (contribución de valorización) no longer rely on stimulating growth through public capital
charges property owners a fee to defray the costs of public investment, but rather seeks private sector support for
works improvements. Between 1997 and 2007, this innovation districts and zones in second-tier cities with
innovative financing mechanism has been used to fund over negotiated regulatory incentives.139 Chicago, US, has been
US$1 billion worth of investment in 217 infrastructure successful in developing and mobilizing new PPP models and
projects all over the city.138 value capture innovations, often in partnership with major
banks, transnational infrastructure developers and other
The successful implementation of innovative financing private-sector financial partners.140 These financing models
instruments should be accompanied by capacity building are becoming popular because of dwindling federal funding
for municipal officials, administrative and policy reforms, for urban programmes.
technical innovation and strengthened political incentives.
Municipal governments should be granted better fiscal
autonomy for cities to modify their tax structures in line Figure 4.16: 4Rs of urban finance for economic resilience
with their existing economic bases. This will enable cities
to collect a better mix of sales, income and property taxes
RING-FENCE REVENUES
and become better prepared to face changes in economic
Engage with the central government, development
conditions and residents’ needs. This flexibility will also
partners, and other partners to minimize the drop
provide local governments with opportunities to diversify in municipal revenues from own sources and
their revenue portfolios, which is key for strengthening urban intergovernmental fiscal transfers.
economic resilience against future shocks. As cities focus on
rebuilding their urban economies, they should confront the REPRIORITIZE BUDGETS
challenge of the 4Rs of urban finance for recovery (Figure Reallocate budgets to maximize funds for
4.16). activities that contribute to inclusive, green, and
resilient recovery.
The ability of municipalities to meet the REINFORCE BUDGET AND FISCAL AUTONOMY
challenges of demographic change is important Engage with the central government and
for creating inclusive resilient urban economies development partners to achieve a city’s maximum
and productive urban futures discretion over its budget and ensure an adequate
fiscal autonomy.
Cities should also leverage public-private partnerships (PPPs)

REBUILD FISCAL SPACE BETTER
to develop ambitious infrastructure programmes. Japan is Diversify and unlock sources of finance (public and
implementing capital intensive innovations in partnership private) and apply new financing approaches and
with the private sector. Such initiatives include the Shibuya techniques for inclusive, green, and resilient
Station regeneration and Tokyo Station, whose objective is recovery.
to overhaul ageing transport infrastructures and create a
vibrant urban economy. Japan’s central government policies Source: UN-Habitat and UNCDF, 2021.
132
For a resilient future, an enabling environment is critical for

mobilizing sustainable and innovative financing mechanisms Box 4.6: Freetown is reforming its property tax
(Figure 4.17). Cities can also explore the possibility of using system
green bonds to fund interventions such as the transition to
circular economies (Chapter 10). Gothenburg, Sweden, was Freetown has recognized that to fund public services,
the first local authority to launch a municipal green bond in it needs to raise property taxes. In 2020, after a two-
2013 and has since developed a robust framework for such year-long working group, the city reformed its property
instruments.141 For this financial scheme to be replicated tax system, which will use a simple model to calculate
in most regions, local governments require fiscal autonomy, property values and a new IT system to manage the
legal power and creditworthiness. An effective local tax base entire tax collection process. The city has also registered
is also necessary to allow cities to tap global finance more almost all the 100,000-plus properties in the city. The
successfully and thus build up the city’s creditworthiness. system will make the property tax regime of Freetown
more progressive and has resulted in much higher tax bills
In most places, reforming tax systems is much needed to for the most valuable properties. The tax payable on the
strengthen cities’ fiscal sustainability. Cities like Freetown, top 20 per cent of properties has more than tripled, on
Sierra Leone, for example, are reforming their property tax average. At the same time, that on the bottom 20 per cent
system to enhance revenue generation for infrastructure has been more than halved. Under the system, Freetown’s
development (Box 4.6).142 In the near and long-term, potential revenue from property tax is estimated to
building this capacity can yield significant returns, such as increase more than five-fold.
tapping into the ever-growing green bond market which saw Source: Kamara et al, 2020.
US$52 billion worth of bond issuances in 2019, a 21 per
cent increase from 2018.143
Figure 4.17: Creating an enabling environment for scaling-up investment
Economic policy aligned with Fiscal

Powers
• 2030 Sustainable Development Goals
Scaled up investment for sustainable urban development

• Paris Climate Agreement
• New Urban Agenda
Suitable
own-source PUBLIC FINANCIAL
revenues
ENABLING ENVIRONMENT
DELIVERY PARTNERSHIPS
“READINESS”
local funding
Fiscal Policy
• Long term capital forecasing instruments
• Tax system reform

• Sovereign & local credit environment
debt
municipal
National Urban Policies SCALING development bodies
Municipal
• Compact, connected & coordinated debt MECHANISMS
• Infrastructure strategy AND INSTRUMENTS
Land-based
• Integrated with economic and finance
industrial development policy PPPs
Source: Adapted from Ahmad et al, 2019.
133
Overall, the realization of resilient urban economies and COVID-19 has amplified the need for investing in digital
productive urban futures depends on the capacity of cities infrastructures148 to meet the needs of the new economy,
and subnational governments to mobilize adequate financial including an expansion of digital networks (Chapter 9).
resources to fund infrastructure investments. While the Digital infrastructures are critical for cities to transition
need for new infrastructure investments in undeniable and to greener and inclusive urban economies. Therefore,
urgent, the current unmet needs have negative repercussions the future of resilient urban economies depends on
on urban economies. Underinvestment in key infrastructure governments’ commitment to invest in key infrastructure
threatens competitiveness and the productivity of cities, and public services. Such investments could steer cities
thereby casting a shadow on urban economic resilience. If away from the pessimistic scenario of urban futures (Chapter
cities fail to close the massive gaps in infrastructure financing 1) and galvanize action towards building inclusive, thriving,
and investment, they will struggle to attract domestic and resilient and productive urban futures in sync with the
foreign investment—thereby putting the future of their SDGs and the NUA. Making these transformations not only
economies in jeopardy. enhances equitable access to urban services for the poor, it
can also yield large dividends and cascading benefits for the
4.4.9. Prioritizing infrastructure investments for entire urban economy, as highlighted above. On the other
productive urban futures hand, failure to address underinvestment in infrastructure
Cities and subnational governments must urgently will undermine urban competitiveness and threaten the
prioritize infrastructure investments towards building productivity of cities, as well as constrain national economies,
resilient urban economies and prosperous urban futures. particularly in developing countries.
Slums and informal settlements in developing country
cities are underserved with key municipal infrastructure 4.4.10. Talent and skills development for resilient
(Chapter 3), which undermines the productivity of urban economies
residents and make cities unattractive for investment. In recent years, there has been significant transformation
Within cities, investments in road infrastructure provide in the world of work. These winds of change are
significant economic returns. For Kampala, investment of guaranteed to persist into the future. The COVID-19
around US$82 million in road infrastructure provided a net pandemic, for instance, has ushered in a new economic
economic benefit of US$15 to US$35 million per year.144 order that is based on innovation and technology (Chapter
Overall, closing Africa’s infrastructure gap could result in 9). It is imperative that cities and subnational governments
1.7 per cent increase in annual GDP growth, with large continually invest in human capacity development to
economic gains in cities.145 reskill and upskill workers in order to keep pace with
these transformations so as to meet the requirements of
Estimates reveal that a dollar invested in developing water the new urban economy.149 Developing skills and talent
and sanitation infrastructure generates between US$4 and for human capital is vital for inclusive and sustainable
US$34 in benefits by improving health outcomes, saving time urban growth as it aligns with SDG 8 on promoting
and boosting urban productivity.146 Additionally, investing productive employment and decent work for all. Failure
in transport infrastructure also improves connectivity to reintegrate workers separated from labour markets
that allows people and goods to move easily within and during the pandemic through reskilling or upskilling puts
between cities. Moreover, investments in public transport the future of urban economies at further risk.
systems typically trigger economic benefits, especially for
the urban poor whose access to jobs is affected by socio- Policy action is particularly important for women, youth,
spatial segregation. Investment in mass transit systems migrants and refugees, among other vulnerable groups who
are also a catalyst or resilient and inclusive urban futures are more likely to have dropped out of labour force.150 The
(Chapter 5). Bogotá’s bus rapid transit system increased the COVID-19 crisis had a disproportionate impact on women
average welfare of the city’s residents by 3.5 per cent.147 and youth employment.151 Women, for instance, comprised
Another important priority is investing in green energy a large share of the workforce in the sectors worst affected
infrastructure, which has strong potential to unleash by the pandemic and the drop in their employment-to-
productive growth throughout the entire urban economy, population ratio has been relatively higher than that of men.
thus creating employment, generating revenue and yielding It is projected to remain so in the coming years (Figure
spin-off effects to multiple sectors. 4.18).152
134
Figure 4.18: Employment-to-population ratio by sex, 2019–2022
World
2019 2020 2021 2022
Male 69.4 66.6 67.3 67.9
Female 45.2 43.0 43.4 43.8
Male 72.6 70.5 70.7 70.8

Female 55.7 53.2 53.3 53.8
Male 72.6 66.6 67.8 68.7

Female 55.7 31.1 31.6 32.2
Male 69.6 67.4 68.0 68.1

Female 53.6 51.3 51.5 51.8
Male 65.3 63.2 63.8 64.3

Female 51.0 49.4 50.2 50.5
Source: ILO, 2022.
Another way to advance talent and skills development to skills of Finnish and foreign students studying in Vaasa and
achieve resilient urban economies is by cultivating research, supporting their employment in the region’s companies.
training and innovation through the establishment or
expansion of urban research universities. Research-intensive Vaasa’s Digitalisation Academy demonstrates the importance
universities can act as a magnet for talented students and of partnerships between universities, firms and regional
researchers, drive innovation and provide opportunities for authorities in implementing talent development programs.
the local population to gain new skills and increase their Skills development and talent retention programs are critical
earnings; thereby boosting the urban economy. in cities that are experiencing urban shrinkage. As people
become skilled and reskilled, this talent pool can attract
In the US counties, for example, a US$1 increase in high-tech industries, stimulate local innovation networks
university expenditures leads to an 89-cent increase in the that enable better realization of agglomeration advantages
urban income.153 In China, Suzhou Industrial Park has set and contribute to urban productivity. These training
up its own technical and vocational training college. This opportunities should also be extended to informal sector
has resulted in stronger linkages between skills supply workers to boost their productivity and alleviate long-term
and actual needs of the local industries as well as boosting vulnerability.
productivity and competitiveness of the industrial park.154
These measures were complemented with talent attraction
strategies such as housing subsidies. To retain talent, the city
of Vaasa, Finland, implemented the Digitalisation Academy in training opportunities should also be extended
2018 in partnership with a local university155 (Figure 4.19). to informal sector workers to boost their
This academy was designed to respond to the talent shortage productivity and alleviate long-term vulnerability
in the region’s business sector by strengthening the digital
135
Figure 4.19: The Digitalisation Academy model in the city of Vaasa, Finland
DIGITALISATION ACADEMY
• Joint effort by the ecosystem actors to tackle talent shortages
employment
COMPANIES STUDENTS UNIVERSITIES
• Funding for the Academy • Access to students

• Industry insights and needs academic fields • Support for planning and
OFFER
via teaching and visits

• Internships and thesis work their countries cultures
for students • Insights into the future
regarding employers
• Access to a talented future • Insights into industry needs • Free programme for
BENEFIT
workforce and the Finnish job market students, chance to support

• Close contact with their employment
ecosystem actors • Insight into industry’s
• Way of showing social skills needs, networks
responsibility • Networking with the ecosystem • Tool for fulfilling
actors
Source: Adapted from Niemi et al, 2021.
Investing in stronger human capital is a response to the NUA’s 4.4.11. Peaceful and stable societies
commitment on “providing the labour force with access to The transformative pathways towards resilient urban
knowledge, skills and educational facilities that contribute economies and productive urban futures discussed in
to an innovative and competitive urban economy.”156 this section can only be effectively pursued and result in
Cities with a large pool of skilled human capital are more meaningful outcomes in peaceful and stable societies. Social
resilient to future economic turbulence compared with stability and peace are critical ingredients for fostering
those that do not. At the same time, it is vital to incentivize urban economic resilience. Besides structural conditions,
a human-centred work culture and work models for firms. the future economic outlook of cities and nations hinges on
In developed countries, the pandemic has spurred what their prevailing social conditions as well as the relationship
is referred to as the Great Resignation or Great Reshuffle between nations. The past decades have shown that peace
that has been largely characterized by a higher attrition as and security challenges in one country have the potential
workers change jobs, “hoping for something more—more to easily spill over and bear negative impacts regionally and
purpose, more flexibility, more empathy.”157 even globally.
136
Today, urban areas are increasingly becoming platforms of Prioritize investment in key infrastructure and services
local and international armed conflicts: “wars have moved to strengthen urban competitiveness and boost
into the lives, cities and homes of ordinary people in a more productivity of cities towards sustainable, resilient and
vicious way than ever before.”158 As alluded to in previous inclusive economic growth.
sections, conflict destroys local economies. Conflicts and
societal instability result in displacement, loss of life, Mobilize sustainable and innovative financial resources
economic disruption, lower consumption and destruction of such as PPPs and land value capture to complement
urban assets. In regard to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, traditional sources of revenue.
for example, preliminary estimates put the overall cost of
rehabilitating the country after the war at €200–500 billion Recognize and integrate the informal sector into urban
(US$220–540 billion)—the upper limit is over three times systems as well as facilitate access to markets, finance
Ukraine’s pre-war GDP.159 These disruptive events also inhibit and training to enhance the productivity of informal
revenue mobilization capacity, leading to lower local and enterprises and strengthen their resilience to future
national revenue flows, among other negative impacts that shocks.
cultivate the pessimistic scenario alluded to in Chapter 1.
Implement targeted interventions to expand the
The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is our capabilities of marginalized groups, including tailored
common global blueprint to create more peaceful, stable social protection measures to alleviate their vulnerability
and resilient societies.160 Fully respecting human rights, to future shocks.
embracing the presence of strong and effective institutions
at all levels as envisaged in SDG 16, and establishing values Support ageing populations and harness active ageing for
and norms that facilitate the resolution of problems in new decent jobs and inclusive economic growth in line
peaceful and non-violent means are key to a prosperous with SDGs and the NUA.
future. At the same time, to secure a sustainable urban
future, global priority must be given to the fostering of Strengthen sustainable urban and territorial planning to
international cooperation and the practice of preventive reduce costs associated with congestion pressures and
diplomacy, overcoming conflicts through agreements and diseconomies of scale.
compacts, as well as addressing the dynamics that give rise
to and reinforce conflicts and social instability. Lastly, the Diversify urban economies and revitalize post-industrial
pursuit of sustainable urbanization must be an imperative; it cities as a critical part of achieving broader economic
is an enabler of peace and stability.161 resilience, especially in contexts where there is
overdependence on single industrial bases.
4.5. Concluding Remarks and Lessons for Invest in skills and talent development to enhance access
Policy to decent and productive employment for all, including
reskilling to meet the demands of the new urban
Although the COVID-19 pandemic has unleashed an economy.
unprecedented crisis, it also provides an opportunity for
directing investment towards building resilient urban Adopt the circular economy as a catalyst to greater urban
economies and productive urban futures. Globally, cities economic resilience while promoting resource efficiency
have differential economic fragility. Some cities are more as well as adapting cities to new economic realities.
resilient to shocks while others are more vulnerable
because of differences in economic structures and fiscal Implement balanced territorial economic development
health, among other factors. For the collective visions of to reduce regional disparities and promote equitable and
sustainable, resilient and productive urban economies to inclusive economic growth.
be realized as enshrined in the SDGs and the New Urban
Agenda, this chapter has placed emphasis on the following Cultivating peaceful and socially stable societies.
key policy areas for cities and subnational governments to
drive inclusive economic growth:
137
Endnotes
1. Henderson and Kriticos, 2018. 41. Sachs et al, 2021. 84. UN-Habitat, 2016a. 130. See National Urban Policy Platform
2. United Nations, 2017. 42. Peralta-Quirós, 2015. 85. Guo and Chen, 2021. (https://urbanpolicyplatform.org).
3. United Nations, 2017. 43. Avner and Lall, 2016. 86. National League of Cities, 2020. 131. See Ghana Secondary Cities Support
4. Cohen and Simet, 2018; UN-Habitat, 44. Ellis and Roberts, 2016. 87. Schulze and King, 2021. Program (https://projects.worldbank.
2011a. 45. UN-Habitat, 2020a. 88. City of Melbourne, 2021. org/en/projects-operations/project-
5. City of Melbourne, 2020. 46. Glaeser and Xiong, 2017. 89. Pagano and McFarland, 2020. detail/P164451).
6. Hoogeveen and Lopez-Acevedo, 47. United Nations, 2022d. 90. UNECE, 2019. 132. World Bank, 2018b.
2021. 48. UN-Habitat and UNIDO, 2021. 91. ICLEI et al, 2018. 133. World Bank, 2022b.
7. UNECE, 2021. 49. UN-Habitat et al, 2021b. 92. Ndung’u, 2020. 134. Bandauko, et al. 2021.
8. Local Government Association, 2021. 50. Cities Alliance, 2021. 93. United Nations, 2017. 135. Local Government Association, 2021.
9. OECD, 2020c. 51. Government of the Democratic Social 94. UN-Habitat and DiMSUR, 2020. 136. UN-Habitat et al, 2021.
10. Wahba et al, 2020. Republic of Sri Lanka, 2018. 95. Deloitte, 2014. 137. UN-Habitat and UNCDF, 2021.
11. UNECE, 2021; Adrian and Gopinath, 52. Thieme, 2016. 96. Kulenovic, 2015. 138. Mahendra et al, 2021.
2021. 53. United Nations, 2017. 97. Ijjasz-Vasquez and Mukim, 2021. 139. UN-Habitat and ESCAP, 2019.
12. United Nations, 2022a. 54. Cities Alliance, 2021b. 98. Kulenovic and Zhu, 2016. 140. Knuth and Krishnan, 2021.
13. United Nations, 2022b; United 55. Knuth and Krishnan, 2021. 99. City of Windsor, 2020. 141. City of Gothenburg, 2019.
Nations, 2022c; Tollefson, 2022; 56. Löffler, 2016. 100. Ijjasz-Vasquez and Mukim, 2021. 142. Kamara et al, 2020.
Pomeroy, 2022; Anayi et al, 2022. 57. OECD and UCLG, 2019. 101. Urban Transitions Alliance, n.d. 143. Amundi Asset Management and
14. United Nations, 2021. 58. OECD and UCLG, 2019. 102. Bartholomae et al, 2017. International Finance Corporation,
15. UN-Habitat and UNCDF, 2021. 59. UN-Habitat and ESCAP, 2019. 103. César, 2021. 2020.
16. Ženka et al, 2019. 60. Ellis and Roberts, 2016. 104. César, 2021. 144. CDC Evidence Review, 2021.
17. Zhiwei et al, 2019. 61. Venkateswaran, 2014. 105. Bonato and Orsini, 2018. 145. CDC Evidence Review, 2021.
18. UN-Habitat, 2020a. 62. Ahmad et al, 2019. 106. Bonato and Orsini, 2018. 146. World Water Assessment
19. UN-Habitat, 2020a. 63. World Bank, n.d. 107. NUA para. 71 (United Nations, 2017). Programme, 2016.
20. Abreha et al, 2021. 64. UN-Habitat, 2020c. 108. NUA para. 45 (United Nations, 2017). 147. Tsivanidis, 2018.
21. World Bank, 2020f. 65. Bernal et al, 2020. 109. OECD, 2019a. 148. World Economic Forum, 2020.
22. Lall and Maloney, 2022. 66. United Nations, 2022d. 110. Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2015. 149. Neagle, 2022.
23. Page et al, 2020. 67. UN-Habitat et al, 2021. 111. Deloitte, 2020. 150. World Bank, 2022b.
24. Grover et al, 2022. 68. UN-Habitat, 2020a. 112. United Nations, 2017. 151. Young people (15–24 years) fared
25. Page et al, 2020. 69. Angel and Blei, 2016. 113. Ellis and Roberts, 2016. worse than persons above 25 years
26. Lall et al, 2017. 70. Cleave et al, 2019. 114. UN-Habitat, 2021a. old during the crisis (ILO, 2022).
27. UN-Habitat, 2020a. 71. Beer et al, 2020. 115. OECD and ILO, 2019. 152. ILO, 2022.
28. Lall et al, 2017. 72. Fratesi and Rodríguez-Pose, 2016; 116. Mahendra et al, 2021. 153. Kantor and Whalley, 2014.
29. Venables, 2015. Capello et al, 2015. 117. Buque and Ribeiro, 2015. 154. Zeng, 2016.
30. United Nations, 2021. 73. European Union, 2021. 118. ILO, 2020a. 155. Niemi et al, 2021.
31. Hoogeveen and Lopez-Acevedo, 74. European Union, 2021. 119. OECD, 2015a. 156. United Nations, 2017.
2021. 75. Morill, 2014. 120. OECD, 2015a. 157. Linkedin, 2022; ILO, 2021.
32. Hoogeveen and Lopez-Acevedo, 76. Biswas et al, 2018. 121. OECD, 2015a. 158. ICRC, 2017.
2021. 77. Kilroy et al, 2015. 122. Cohen and Simet, 2018. 159. The Economist, 2022.
33. ILO, 2018. 78. Kilroy et al, 2015; Jarzebski et al, 123. UN-Habitat and UNCDF, 2021. 160. Harris, 2018.
34. Ohnsorge and Yu, 2021. 2021. 124. Government of People’s Republic of 161. UN-Habitat, 2021b.
35. ILO, 2018. 79. Martinez-Fernandez et al, 2016. Bangladesh, 2020.
36. Godfrey et al, 2016. 80. Ahmad et al, 2019. 125. UN-Habitat, 2021a.
37. Chen and Beard, 2018. 81. Municipal Securities Rulemaking 126. RNSF, 2017.
38. IMF, 2017. Board, 2022. 127. Cities Alliance, 2021.
39. Grover et al, 2022; Henderson and 82. Woetzel et al, 2017. 128. Suri and Bonaglia, 2021.
Nigmatulina, 2016. 83. Woetzel et al, 2017 ; UN-Habitat 129. OECD, 2021a.
40. Henderson and Nigmatulina, 2016. 2020a.
138
Chapter 5:
139
Quick facts
1. Current net zero policies have pitfalls, including an overreliance on
underdeveloped technologies that overlook local resources and the lack of
integration of local governance strategies in national programmes for action.
2. Climate impacts and other environmental crises interact with drivers of urban
inequality, which threatens the futures of cities.
3. Greener futures cannot be secured without just transitions.
4. The world is losing the opportunity to use the post-pandemic context as a

catalytic moment to facilitate investment for a transition to net zero carbon
emissions.
Policy points
1. Achieving net zero is also dependent on subnational and city-level action.
Policymakers at all levels must therefore recognize and support the role of
urban areas in the net zero transition.
2. Nature-based solutions must be part of inclusive planning processes for

sustainable urban futures—local action to secure greener futures cannot
overlook their vital role.
3. In environmental decision-making, diverse voices and perspectives must be

heard to minimize uncertainties in the pathways to securing greener urban
futures.
4. Various levels of government and institutions should harness the potential

of international partnerships such as transnational networks and social
movements in delivering greener urban futures.
140
We are living a unique moment, where the world is are insufficient. The lack of ambition in current national
transcending a pandemic whose recovery efforts are commitments echoes a lack of imagination in defining
entangled with a push to develop alternative futures. The alternative urban futures. Much of the debate has rightly
climate crisis—and related goals of keeping the global focused on keeping the 1.5ºC goal alive, with subnational
average temperature change under 1.5 degrees—and governments making new commitments that accelerate
avoiding mass extinction now a primary concern at various climate targets to 2030.3 At the same time, the great
levels of governance. Cities continue to be at the forefront extinction likely to sweep away the world’s biodiversity
of environmental and sustainability action, although after a speaks to the disconnection of human activity from its
decade of optimism, their role in constructing sustainable natural surroundings.4 There is one last chance for humanity
urban futures is increasingly questioned by the public, to reconcile with the possibilities of living on Earth, shift
especially younger generations operating with a sense of development pathways, and reconnect with the stewardship
urgency out of fear for their future. In short, the promise of role that recognizes a mutual and beneficial relationship
sustainable urbanization remains unfulfilled. between humans and the environment. Every citizen has a
role to play in actively engaging with the urban landscape.
Calls for urgent action on the climate and biodiversity crises
emphasize the need to build sustainable urban futures. This chapter analyses the interrelated challenges of climate
The challenge for various actors is to envision how those change and biodiversity to explore how alternative urban
futures can make urban space liveable for humans while not futures could be developed. The rationale of the chapter
contributing to environmental degradation. But multiple follows an examination of the ideas about the future that
uncertainties shape environmental action. While living in the dominate planning practice. In particular, the chapter engages
Anthropocene, we must recognize the impact humans have with two alternative future-oriented approaches. On the one
on the Earth as a whole, with implications for human societies hand, the chapter examines the growth of scenario planning
and ecosystems.1 Previous editions of the UN-Habitat World and scenario modelling to consider what the future means
Cities Report have argued that there are opportunities to for urban areas. On the other hand, following the operation
harness the value of sustainable urbanization to advance of scenarios in practice, the chapter recognizes the need to
green, resilient and more equitable futures. include multiple perspectives and acknowledge inequality
in planning practices. These two cross-cutting themes are
examined in six sections that explore different aspects of
The goal of limiting average delivering green urban environments: the transition towards
mean temperature rise to net zero carbon, the future of urban transport, the increasing
1.5°C by 2100 has become a importance of building resilience, the growing visibility of
policymakers’ guiding metric to nature-based solutions, the development of inclusive urban
imagine sustainable futures planning, and the constitution of global partnerships to
deliver green urban futures. Each section thus explores the
The goal of limiting average mean temperature rise to treatment of futures, how future visions influence planning
1.5°C by 2100 has become a policymakers’ guiding metric practice as well as their impact on populations across the
to imagine sustainable futures. In 2018, the IPCC Special urban-rural continuum.
Report identified two pathways to maintain this goal. The
first pathway is to stabilize global warming at or below 1.5°C
above pre-industrial levels. The second pathway, also called 5.1. Urban Transitions to Net Zero GHG
an “overshoot” pathway, foresees global warming exceeding Emissions
1.5°C around mid-century, remaining above 1.5°C for a
maximum duration of a few decades, and returning to below Net zero GHG emissions means achieving balance, over a
1.5°C before 2100.2 Both pathways highlight mitigation specified period, between anthropogenic GHG emissions
and adaptation efforts in multiple sectors, including energy, produced by human activities and those removed from the
transportation, forestry and sustainable land use. atmosphere through reduction measures.5 The transition to
net zero emissions requires sustainable consumption and
Despite securing net zero commitments from 153 countries, production practices that facilitate responsible resource use
the Glasgow Climate Pact negotiated at COP26 in November and address climate change’s adverse impacts. However, the
2021 showed that current steps to limit global warming conceptualization of net zero carbon varies across scales and
141
sectors. For example, territorial approaches, which calculate from the urgency of emission reductions by shifting
emissions within national borders, are widely used at the faith onto unrealistic carbon removal measures.11 Such
national scale for carbon accounting. technologies are still developing and not yet available for
large-scale applications.12 The promise of carbon removal
By contrast, the conceptualization of net zero emissions at technologies bolsters market environmentalism narratives that
the city level faces two practical challenges. First, inventory strengthen capitalism and reinforce existing social and spatial
data at the city level is often unavailable. Second, cities inequalities.13 The stabilization of emissions is a necessary but
present specific complexities due to their “smaller spatial insufficient condition to manage climate change, and reaching
scale and embeddedness within larger-scale social, ecological zero emissions will not cancel climate impacts.14
and infrastructural systems.”6 For instance, urban energy
and economic systems depend on long-distance exchanges. 5.1.1. The role of scenarios in defining net zero
Accounting for these transboundary carbon flows is urban futures
challenging when considering the city as an analytical unit for Net zero urban futures depend on the development of net
carbon measurements.7 A net zero carbon city can be imagined zero scenarios at the national level and how such influence
quite differently depending on the focus of carbon accounting urban thinking. Scenario modelling assists decision-making
approaches—whether net zero territorial emissions, net zero in climate policy.15 The latest generation of climate models
community-wide physical provisioning systems, net zero informs the urgency to reach net zero emissions.16 These
household expenditures, or net zero trade.8 models also outline physical and policy pathways to net zero
emissions, including measures to reduce the use of carbon-
Recent research warns against undue optimism with regards intense materials (such as substituting materials, facilitating
to net zero scenarios.9 Current climate simulation models recycling, introducing carbon pricing and removing
may effectively simplify (and thus downplay) social and energy subsidies), support research and development of
political realities affecting the actual impacts of climate decarbonized technologies, and sunset policies for obsolete
change.10 The concept of net zero may also distract attention high-carbon facilities.17
Solar panels in a car park. Companies are installing renewable energy sources to reduce their carbon footprint. Reggio Calabria, Italy
142
Net zero decarbonization requires country-specific Their results depend on subjective framing of objectives,
strategies that take into account each nation’s development contexts and methodologies.29 Building net zero scenarios is
priorities.18 In the UK, for example, a study suggests that particularly challenging because it involves long time frames
achieving net zero emissions before 2050 will require more and detailed speculation on technological and social changes,
vigorous mitigation efforts than those currently envisaged by with inferences across different sectors and processes.30
national policy.19 Lines of action should include commercial- Scenario building approaches appear technocratic, limiting
scale deployment of carbon capture and sequestration actors’ agency and mobilizing simplified assumptions about
technologies, a quicker phase-out of fossil-based generation, social and political dynamics.31
higher deployment of wind and nuclear power, and more
radical reductions in emissions from the transport and The combination of quantitative models with qualitative
building sectors. In Latin America and the Caribbean, well- storylines is an alternative to move beyond simplified
proven strategies can support net zero pathways, including narratives that rely solely on computer modelling.32 For
urban electrification for households and transport, transport example, socio-technical transition theories highlight the
mode shifting, and the combination of intensive sustainable co-evolution between social change and technological
agriculture with afforestation.20 development. Yet, while such analyses expose the historical
trends of socio-technical dynamics, they often cannot predict
Achieving net zero ultimately depends on subnational and how such dynamics might develop in the future.33
city-level action. Several net zero planning models are
currently under development. Building-level carbon budgets, Socio-technical scenarios help to bridge computer models,
for instance, provide consistency across temporal and spatial and socio-technical systems theories.34 Socio-technical
dimensions of carbon reductions.21 Planning for net zero scenarios support speculation on future transition pathways,
cities depends on having appropriate climate information considering actors’ agency and the interactions between
as part of the evidence base, but this information is not multiple dimensions (both techno-economic and socio-
always available. Climate projections can inform decisions political) of a socio-technical system.35 Contributions
in urban planning, which points towards the increasing role from the humanities and the creative sector will enhance
that planning can play in shaping urban futures.22 Innovative the creation and deliberation of climate change scenarios
models that could support multi-objective decision-making towards imaginative futures.36 This perspective highlights
in urban planning and governance, such as scenario-based the importance of cultural work on climate change that
planning,23 multiperiod planning,24 and multi-objective acknowledges scenarios’ historical and cultural roots.37
decision-making25 are in the early stages of development but However, there have been limited applications of multi-
offer significant promise. method modelling in urban planning and urban governance
so far.
Scenarios can inform protective decisions to mitigate risks.
For example, recent modelling shows that over the next 50 5.1.2. Policies for a net zero urban future
years. climate change will likely increase cross-species viral National and subnational governments, international
transmission risk, as mammals are driven to cooler regions.26 coalitions and private entities have made increasing net zero
Scenarios can also inform proactive decisions to seize emissions pledges in the last few years. In May 2021, the
opportunities. They can also contribute to consensus building International Energy Agency (IEA) released a special report
among many actors, broadening support for a complex on the pathways toward a global net zero energy system by
net zero transition.27 However, despite the popularity of 2050. The report sets out more than 400 milestones that
climate simulation models, policy decisions should not rely need to be achieved to reach the net zero goal in the energy
solely on the outcomes of quantitative scenario modelling.28 sector by 2050. These include major transformations such as
increasing the annual clean energy investment worldwide to
around US$4 trillion by 2030, halting sales of new internal
combustion engine passenger cars by 2035, and phasing out
Net zero decarbonization all unabated coal and oil power plants by 2040.38
requires country-specific
strategies that take into According to IEA, more than 50 countries have set net zero
account each nation’s emissions targets,39 of which 12 countries have written the
development priorities net zero target into law, including Germany (2045), Sweden
143
(2045), Canada (2050), Denmark (2050), France (2050), Delivering the net zero transition depends on cities, and
Hungary (2050), Japan (2050), Luxembourg (2050), New many cities are willing to work towards net zero. At least
Zealand (2050), South Korea (2050), Spain (2050) and the UK 1000 cities worldwide have committed to net zero objectives
(2050). However, some of the strategies have faced criticism under the UNFCCC-led Race to Zero campaign.45 Cities can
of being unrealistic—essentially, being “pie-in-the-sky”—and deliver critical actions to advance social changes, such as
failing to include policies that would deliver promised cuts modal shifts, infrastructure upgrades, energy efficiency and
in emissions. The UK government, for instance, has been low-carbon urban forms.46 However, cities accommodate
sued separately by two charities—ClientEarth and Friends of a fragmented landscape of infrastructure and technology
the Earth— in this regard.40 Net zero policies have attracted ownership that often cuts across urban boundaries. A net
interest but also courted controversy (Box 5.1). zero transition at the urban level requires both autonomy
and coordination.47 Thus, urban transitions to net zero need
to be supported by horizontal integration (multi-actor) and
vertical coordination (multilevel).48
Box 5.1: Let’s make a “Green” Deal: Infrastructure,
jobs and the green economy Policies at higher level governance scales (e.g. regional, national
and international) can serve as a guiding framework for city-
Several countries—including China, European countries, level actions.49 An analysis of the climate action plans of 296
and the US— have developed policy frameworks, cities with net zero targets showed that cities’ approaches to
sometimes referred to as “Green Deals,” to address the net zero evolve within broader governance contexts.50 Cities
twin challenges of climate change and pandemic recovery, in lower-income countries are more likely to rely on local and
emphasizing job creation and infrastructure investment.41 community actions and focus on climate adaptation and risk
management that echoes national-level climate strategies. In
A new infrastructure bill adopted in November 2021 by contrast, cities in higher-income countries tend to highlight
the US will invest US$1 trillion in ports and transportation climate actions in transport, buildings and lighting by focusing
systems, high-speed internet, clean water, roads and on efficiency and leadership.51 Support from national
bridges, mass transit, and clean energy infrastructure, governments is essential (Figure 5.1).52
creating millions of jobs. The European Commission
also adopted a European Green Deal (EGD) in 2019,
later coordinated with the COVID-19 recovery plans in Figure 5.1: National-level pillars for supporting local
NextGenerationEU, with a strong emphasis on digital climate action
technologies.42
However, there are questions about the extent to which

infrastructure investments are the best approach to City-level,
deliver a transition, particularly what kind of actions these place-specific
climate action
frameworks will foster at the local level. In the US, ten
state and local governments have adopted subnational
versions of the Green New Deal, including Austin, Texas;
Los Angeles, California; New York City; and Boston,
Massachusetts.
In the European Green Deal, cities play a central role in

specific strategies such as the Circular Economy Action
Plan, the Biodiversity Strategy for 2030, the Farm to
National-level areas of support
Fork Strategy and the Renovation Wave.43 In 2020,
the European Commission announced an EU mission
Clarifying Financial and Coordination of Experimental,
on Climate-Neutral and Smart Cities to deliver 100 governance institutional multiple actors participatory
climate-neutral and smart cities by 2030 that can act as competences support culture
experimentation and innovation hubs.44
Source: Coalition for Urban Transitions, 2019.
144
The Sustainable Development Goals are another arena of development objectives such as energy access. Carbon
national commitment that requires local implementation. mitigation policies for off-grid energy or energy efficiency
Cities can coordinate net zero action with localized action directly alleviate some of the energy access challenges.
to deliver the SDGs. For countries in Africa and South
Asia facing dire energy access challenges, delivering a net Moreover, urban areas can help accelerate the net zero
zero transition must go hand in hand with alternatives that transition. For example, the EU’s 2050 net zero strategy
provide energy access to populations with some of the lowest considers cities as experimentation centres in sectors such
carbon footprints in the world. In 2019, despite progress in as energy, transport, and construction.54 Different models
advancing SDG7 on energy, an estimated 759 million people of low-carbon, sustainable cities developed over the years
still lacked access to electricity and 2.6 billion people lacked have been implemented in practice, with rich lessons for
access to clean cooking facilities.53 The IEA forecasts that, net zero cities.55
as population growth continues in Africa, energy access
challenges will continue unabated. While electricity access However, existing models of urban development that favour
rates are higher in urban areas, urban dwellers still face net zero action (as illustrated in Figure 5.2) cater to well-
energy access challenges related to affordability and reliance, established cities with access to financial resources and
particularly in rapidly growing urban peripheries. Local advanced technologies such as Singapore, Stockholm or
governments and other urban actors have an essential role in Vancouver, among others. There is less understanding
linking the urban net zero transition with other sustainable of what net zero will mean for rapidly urbanizing areas
Figure 5.2: Models of net zero development in urban areas
Sustainable cities
Protection
Cities that protect natural Resilient cities
resources while achieving
economic, physical, and social Cities that have the ability to
progress, and anticipate absorb, recover and prepare
environmental risks that can for shocks (economic,
undermine any development Green environmental, social &
achievement Urban institutional)
Futures
Efficiency Safety
Smart cities
Cities where the traditional networks and
services are made more efficient with digital
and telecommunication technologies for the
benefit of its inhabitants
and businesses
Source: Compiled from Arcadis, 2018; Hassan and Lee, 2015; Barkham, 2013; OECD, n.d.; IMD, 2021; European Commission, 2022.
145
Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) requires that

Net zero action must balance all new buildings constructed since the beginning of 2021
localized interventions in must be nearly zero-energy buildings. Achieving such a goal
buildings and neighbourhoods depends on designs with significant energy-saving features,
with citywide approaches seeking such as efficient heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning
to deliver concerted action (HVAC), and lighting technologies.56
and the growing urban peripheries in Latin America and At the same time, the retrofitting of the existing building
the Caribbean, Africa, the Middle East, South Asia and stock constitutes a significant challenge to reducing the
Southeast Asia. Yet, rapidly urbanizing areas are accumulating GHG emissions of the building sector.57 Retrofitting the
experiences that will become increasingly relevant in the net current building stock is often considered a cost-efficient
zero transition. way of reducing building energy consumption.58 The move
from single buildings to the district scale—for example, in
Net zero action must balance localized interventions in Net Zero Energy Districts (NZED)—has shown potential for
buildings and neighbourhoods with citywide approaches large-scale emission reductions.59 NZEDs require innovative
seeking to deliver concerted action. There are several solutions for street lighting, urban mobility, waste collection,
examples of successful localized interventions. The building and public safety.60 A scenario study in Belgium, for example,
sector, in particular, is a crucial arena for advancing net zero identified the importance of building renovation, sustainable
in cities (Table 5.1). In the European Union, the EU Energy mobility, and the integration of local renewable energy
Table 5.1: Reducing emissions in the built environment, examples of actions
Area of action Rationale Evidence of progress
Adoption of building Building codes are generally used in the context of safety but The Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction says that 18 new
codes at the national are also helpful in reducing emissions by regulating energy- countries have adopted building codes since 2017 and building codes
level related components such as thermal performance and wall are frequently cited in Nationally Determined Contributions.
thickness. They also have dividends for residents, making The alliance also reports that green building certification increased
houses more comfortable and reducing energy bills. 13.9 per cent between 2019 and 2020.
Energy efficiency Energy efficiency includes measures to reduce the amount The Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction estimates that
measures of energy that provides a similar level of service, for global investment in the energy efficiency of buildings increased
example, by changing the technology and materials used or an unprecedented 11 per cent in 2020. Still, investments remain
optimizing the system through digital systems. Changing an concentrated in the EU, and it is thought to be insufficient to bring
incandescent lamp to a more efficient LED lamp is one of the about a systemic change.
simplest examples of energy efficiency measures. The IEA
estimates that energy efficiency could provide more than 40
per cent of the emissions reductions needed by 2040.
Integrated The use of energy for cooling, especially air conditioning The Cool Coalition recommends reducing need for mechanical cooling
approaches to cooling systems, has skyrocketed. As global average temperatures through better building design and urban planning, improving
increase, the use of energy for cooling is likely to increase. equipment efficiency, shift to renewables and protecting vulnerable
Ways to prevent excessive cooling include developing populations. While progress in these areas is slow, notable highlights
integrated cooling systems and changing perceptions of include: 14 cooling suppliers joined the Race to Zero campaign,
thermal comfort. representing 28 per cent of the residential AC market; 53 enhanced
Nationally Determined Contributions have integrated sustainable
cooling.
Urban electrification The WGIII report of the IPCC states: “electrification of energy The use of heat pumps, photovoltaic energy or electric cookstoves
end uses in cities and efficient energy demand for heating, improves energy efficiency and may enable the active decarbonization
transport and cooking through multiple options and urban of the energy supply. Urban electrification may also help reconfigure
infrastructure has an estimated mitigation potential of at supply networks more sustainably through smart grids. However,
least 6.9 GtCO2-eq by 2030 and 15.3 GtCO2-eq by 2050”, but while evidence of the successful electrification of urban transport is
also requires the decarbonization of the energy supply. apparent, widespread urban electrification in buildings is less clear.
Sources: UNEP, 2021a; UNEP, 2021b; IEA, 2021a; IPCC, 2022a.
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Ecological modern building . Warsaw University in Poland.
sources to achieve net zero at the neighbourhood level.61 up, economic recovery has been prioritized at the expense
There is considerable potential for district-based approaches of net zero investments. A comparison of the economic
to net zero. Still, they face two challenges: to move beyond recovery packages of 149 countries found that investments
experimental stages in well-resourced cities into broad in net zero transitions are minimal compared with pandemic-
models that can provide workable alternatives elsewhere and related stimulus funds while fossil fuel production support
to interrogate how district-based action can be integrated remains strong (Box 5.2).65
into citywide plans that reflect the changing needs of both
city centres and urban peripheries. 5.1.3. Social change is central to a net zero urban
transition
The COVID-19 pandemic showed the potential feasibility of Lasting reductions in greenhouse emissions require social
net zero ambitions, but public health measures in response change.66 Demand-side solutions for mitigating climate change
to the virus had short-lived effects on reducing carbon include strategies targeting technology choices, consumption,
emissions. It also demonstrated that efforts to reduce behaviour, lifestyles, production-consumption infrastructures
carbon emissions should go hand in hand with ameliorating and service provision.67 Demand-side mitigation strategies are
people’s vulnerabilities (see section 5.3). Lockdowns and critical to meet emission reduction targets and often entail
disruptions in the global supply chain led countries like fewer environmental risks than many supply-side measures.68
China to consider measures that effectively decarbonized Since they depend on interactions between technological
the economy.62 In urban areas, COVID-19 ‘forced’ residents
to interact with their cities in a more sustainable way, as efforts to reduce carbon emissions should
people shifted to walking and cycling63 and rediscovered the go hand in hand with ameliorating people’s
value of green spaces.64 However, as emissions have picked vulnerabilities
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and social change,69 net zero transitions are value-laden and how they engage with infrastructure and markets.74 Such a
depend on societal preferences.70 Social change manifests transition would require moving away from conceptualizing
in individual-level social behaviours, practices (e.g. everyday urban dwellers as consumers who influence the transition
eating or mobility), and broader social relations and via consumer choices and instead recognize people as active
structures.71 The IEA, for example, has proposed changes in makers of their urban environments.
urban areas, such as phasing out internal combustion engine
cars and promoting ridesharing for all urban car trips.72 Net zero transitions also involve a broader change in the
cultural, legal and institutional frameworks that guide the
However, the contributions of behavioural change to net production and use of technology, the everyday practices of
zero are limited. Behavioural change in urban areas (e.g. organizations and consumers, and design choices for products
replacing car trips with walking, cycling or public transport, and infrastructures.75 In addition, social movements may
or foregoing long-haul flights) could provide around 4 foster innovation and transitions towards net zero.76
per cent of cumulative global emissions reductions.73
Alternatively, urban communities can play an active role in Market-based incentives and voluntary agreements are
transition processes e.g. through spawning urban innovation, insufficient to bring about this kind of social change in
participating in political coalitions for change or redefining urban areas.77 Instead, local governments should implement
Box 5.2: Green recovery: Commitments and actions misaligned?
Evidence suggests that amidst the call for greener urban futures, global green spending is so far incommensurate with the scale
of ongoing environmental crises. A recent study by UNEP of the 50 largest national economies found that only US$368 billion of
US$14.6 trillion COVID-induced spending—or just 2.5 per cent of total spending (both rescue and recovery)—in 2020 was green while
only 18 per cent of recovery spending was considered so.
Moreover, reports also show that 15 major producer countries continue to provide significant policy support for fossil fuel
production; their production plans and projections would lead to about 240 per cent more coal, 57 per cent more oil, and 71 per cent
more gas in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
Recovery spending over the course of the pandemic with total green spending, 2020
Source : UNEP, 2021c; SEI et al, 2021.
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effective public policy measures such as carbon taxes, modes like cycling and walking and by reducing commuting
building codes, congestion zone charging and subsidies for time. Sustainable urban mobility depends on the provision
renewable consumption.78 However, these measures alone of low-carbon transport infrastructure, the introduction
are not sufficient to cause wider social change and they may of energy-saving technologies and the design of adequate
have negative consequences for vulnerable populations. transport planning frameworks.
Ultimately, inclusive planning has a crucial role in fostering a
societal transition to net zero (see section 5.5). The pursuit of greener urban futures calls for transport
policies that encourage a shift from private cars to public
transport, shared vehicles or active travel. Yet, data for 2020
5.2. The Future of Urban Transportation from 1,507 cities from 126 countries shows that, on average,
only about one-half of the urban population has convenient
Greenhouse gas emissions from transport are increasing access to public transport (Figure 5.3). Often, most people
faster than any other energy-using sector. The transport in cities are unable to access sustainable transport options,
sector accounted for 27 per cent of global emissions in public or private, due to lack of appropriate infrastructures
2019.79 While the restrictions and lockdowns associated or individual conditions (e.g. living with disabilities, old age
with COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a fall in CO2 emissions or gender-based restrictions), among other reasons.
from the global transport sector, rebounding demand and
anticipated growth are resulting in a steady rise of emission Moreover, it is often the poorest communities who depend
to pre-pandemic levels. Of special concern are road transport on cycling and walking. In cities like Addis Ababa, Nairobi,
emissions, as three-quarters of current global greenhouse Dar es Salaam or Lagos, more than 40 per cent of the
gas emissions from the transport sector are generated by population depend on cycling and walking for their mobility.81
road transport alone.80 Thus, sustainable transport futures require looking beyond
regulated transport infrastructure provision and planning for
Securing greener urban futures will require planning for diverse mobility needs.82 Holistic approaches will require
sustainable transport and mobility within and beyond cities more than just “magic bullet” technologies like electric
to reduce energy consumption, air pollution, noise and GHG vehicles. The expansion of transportation networks will
emissions. Sustainable mobility can also improve people’s require strategies that mix public transport options and car-
health and well-being, for instance, through active travel sharing, as well as incentives to encourage non-motorized
Figure 5.3: Public transport: coverage and share of population with convenient access, 2020
Global average
Western Asia and Northern Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Northern America and Europe
Eastern and South-Eastern Asia
Source: Data Analytics Unit, UN-Habitat.
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travel and reduce the need to travel over long distances Urban air pollution can result in adverse health outcomes,
(Table 5.2). Addressing cities’ reliance on private transport such as heart attacks, strokes, cancer and chronic obstructive
requires the consideration of complex mobility needs pulmonary disease. There is growing evidence that air
of urban communities. Challenges in the shift to clean pollution affects children’s neurological development. In
transportation include affordability, convenience, ease of a 2018 report, WHO estimated that 93 per cent of the
travel, availability of different options, the distance between world’s children are exposed to toxic air daily, putting their
housing and workplaces and personal safety issues. health at risk.86 Acute lower respiratory infections caused by
polluted air has been linked to the death of 600,000 children
5.2.1. Public health and the challenges of in 2016. Vehicular traffic congestion poses other public
congestion and air pollution in cities health risks, including exposure to excessive noise, elevated
Traffic congestion and air pollution represent key health ambient air temperatures and reduced physical activity.87
challenges for cities worldwide, as urban areas expand to Researchers estimate that around 2.1 million deaths can be
accommodate a growing population. Unplanned urban attributed to insufficient physical activity every year,88 while
expansion, the public’s reliance on motorized road transport accidents involving motorized vehicles are responsible for
and high volumes of freight transport to meet urban approximately 1.35 million deaths annually.89
consumption contribute to maintaining high levels of air
pollution.83 According to the World Health Organisation Reducing traffic congestion can positively impact emissions
(WHO), air pollution—ambient and household air pollution— reductions objectives and urban dwellers’ health. Measures
is linked to 7 million premature deaths, annually.84 WHO to reduce traffic congestion include reallocation of road space
estimates also show that 99 per cent of the world population to non-motorized transport, congestion charging to reduce the
breathes air containing a high level of pollutants (exceeding presence of polluting vehicles in cities, incentives for walking
WHO guideline limits), with in low- and middle-income and cycling, public transport provision improvements and car-
countries more affected.85 free days (Box 5.3). Integrating health impact scenarios into
Table 5.2: Approaches to sustainable urban mobility
Approach Goal Examples
Rapid Transit Rapid transit systems operate on a fixed route that Ease traffic Investments in low-carbon bus rapid transit
Systems increases the service’s speed, capacity and reliability. congestion systems, light rail and underground systems
They include rail transit systems (overground and
underground) as well as bus systems operating on
segregated lanes (not accessible to cars)
Vehicle and Vehicle switching refers to incentives (subsidies or Reduce GHG Subsidies for electric cars; introduction of
Fuel Switching taxation) that encourage switching to low-carbon emissions and air low-emission zones (extra charge for diesel
private cars and public transportation systems. pollution vehicles driving in certain areas), developing
charging stations for electric vehicles, public
investments into electric/hydrogen-fuelled
public transport systems (e.g. buses), etc.
Active Travel Active travel promotion refers to initiatives that Reduce GHG Reallocation of road space for walking and
Promotion encourage walking and cycling for daily trips and emissions and air cycling; regular road closure to create “play
discourage private cars. pollution, enhance streets”; car-free days.
public health,
disincentivize private
car use for short trips.
Shared/ Collective transport represents an alternative to Address gaps in Digitally enabled carpooling and car-sharing,
collective private car ownership and public transportation for public transportation but also regulated and informal collective
transport trips not well covered by existing public transportation networks; taxis or mini-buses.
networks. disincentivize private
car ownership.
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Box 5.3 Car-free and carefree: The movement to open streets for people
While no major city has banned cars permanently, a combination of policy responses to energy price shocks, advocacy for human-
scale urbanism and strong mayoral leadership have strategically limited when and where cars can occupy streets and other urban
public spaces. In 1973, the governments of Denmark, the Netherlands, Switzerland and West Germany enacted a series of “car-free
Sundays” to conserve scarce gasoline during the OPEC oil embargo. The next year, Bogotá (Colombia) residents petitioned their
government for bicycle-only paths on Sundays. That effort planted the seeds for what in the 1990s became an expanded car-free
Sunday known as Ciclovía (Spanish for “cycle way”), which closes approximately 120 km of streets to cars and opens them up to
people for cycling, walking, rolling, vending, exercise and other non-motorized uses.
The car-free Sunday concept spread beyond Bogotá and has proven exceptionally popular in cities across the developing world where
urban residents traditionally have less access to leisure and recreation opportunities. Jakarta (Indonesia) adopted car-free Sundays
in 2012, while several Indian cities have tried with mixed results. In Africa, Kigali (Rwanda) introduced car-free Sundays as a monthly
event in 2016 which, due to its popularity, became fortnight occurrence. The Ugandan cities of Kampala and Jinja take an explicit
stance with the theme “I am the solution to pollution and traffic in my city,” while the car-free days are annually observed in Addis
Ababa and other major cities in Ethiopia.
This enthusiasm in the developing world is matched by increasing efforts in developed world cities to remove cars from certain parts
of cities. In recent years, Paris has banned cars from a roadway along the Seine River, Oslo and Amsterdam have removed parking
spaces from the city centre, and Barcelona has pioneered the “superblock” urban design model that prioritizes people over cars on
certain blocks. The need for social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic provided additional motivation to allocate public space
for people rather than cars. Milan announced the reallocation of 35 km of streets and road space to walking and cycling, while Paris
announced the conversion of 50 km of roads into cycling infrastructure.
Meanwhile, in a flashback to the 1970s, the IEA has proposed car-free Sundays as a measure to reduce oil consumption during the oil
price shock of 2022. This recommendation illustrates how much the car-free city concept resonates in public discourse about energy
savings and improving urban environments. However, scientific analysis of car-free days is scant, with little empirical evidence on
how much such events reduce environmental degradation, even if they capture the public’s imagination.
Source: Whitney, 1973; Guillermoprieto, 2019; UNEP, 2020a; Peters, 2020; IEA, 2022; Glazener et al, 2022; COVID Mobility Works, n.d.
sustainable transport planning is essential to secure greener, Therefore, equity and safety issues must inform interventions
healthier and safer futures for everyone. that encourage active travel and public transport. In addition,
modelling tools and future scenario assessments that account
Urban dwellers are unevenly affected by the negative for differentiated mobility needs and uneven access to
impacts of congestion and air pollution, as low-income different transport modes are required to make cities safer,
groups, children, women and girls, and the elderly are often more sustainable and liveable for everyone.
more vulnerable. Environmental justice research shows
that schools in low-income neighbourhoods are more likely 5.2.2. Rethinking futures in transport planning
to be located near polluting infrastructure.90 Low-income Transport planning requires navigating uncertain futures
groups also face limited transport and mobility options and shaped by climate change, economic instability, travel
endure longer and more expensive commutes relative to demand, changes in individuals’ behaviours and preferences,
their income.91 Women and sexual minorities are more likely technological disruption and global pandemics. Designing
to face harassment in public spaces and public transport, sustainable transport systems in cities requires a mix of
during the day and night. The mobility of people living with qualitative and quantitative tools involving a wide range of
disabilities, the elderly, and children is also significantly stakeholders in order to define collective futures. Decision-
hindered in many cities. makers can design policy with the help of tools that can
151
anticipate future travel demand and measure the impact in the case of sustainable mobility, can help include people as
of particular interventions. Quantitative tools include active agents in a collective modal shift towards active travel.
model sensitivity analysis, stochastic modelling, Monte
Carlo simulations and Bayesian Networks. Qualitative tools Synergistic scenario planning integrates transport planning
include Delphi methods, road mapping, backcasting and within broader planning efforts towards carbon neutrality at
scenario planning. the city and regional scale.98 Such integrative tools conceive
transport as one aspect in the large-scale socio-technical
A high degree of flexibility and adaptability is required to transformation of the energy, transport, industry and building
navigate deep uncertainty.92 Quantitative transport planning sectors.99 Synergistic scenario planning creates bridges
tools such as forecasting (anticipating future travel demand between different policy domains that play a role in securing
based on past trends) do not cope well with the uncertainty greener urban futures—including transport—and helps align
brought about by unexpected events like the COVID-19 actors’ interests to build partnerships and share goals. The
pandemic, long-term trends with a wide range of potential involvement of stakeholders is essential to identify drivers
impacts like global climate change and rapid urbanization, of change (e.g. energy prices, technological costs, people’s
and accelerated technological innovation in the transport preference for different transport modes) and to assess the
sector. A review of 210 infrastructure projects across 14 feasibility of different scenarios. Urban dwellers’ participation
countries concluded that forecasters often overestimate in transport planning is essential to avoid an over-emphasis on a
future transport demand.93 small set of transport options and one-size-fits-all prescriptions
that bear very little relevance to the implementation sites.
Scenario planning is a means to shift current sustainable
mobility and transport planning practices from regime- Practical experiences show that scenario planning for land-use
compliant (adhering to past trends in the transport sector and transport decisions has mixed results, especially without
and transport policy) to regime-testing (making transgressive inclusive and participatory frameworks, clear implementation
policy decisions for sustainable futures).94 Scenario planning plans and resources, and adequate institutional structures.100
integrates both quantitative and qualitative planning tools Most practical experiences in scenario planning are in North
to design transport interventions and stakeholders’ views.95 American and European cities, where they rarely address
Traditional forecasting methods are used alongside more the challenges of informality and rapid urban growth. As a
qualitative assessments of plausible and desirable futures. result, most future visions on urban transport emphasize
A complementary technique is backcasting, which identifies technological solutions, whose effectiveness is not always
desirable objectives (e.g. achieving zero-carbon emissions proven: freight or passenger transport with small airborne
through mobility planning or enhancing access to reliable vehicles such as drones, flying cars or taxis;101 smart traffic
and affordable transport) and works backward to build a management systems that enable vehicle-to-infrastructure
series of steps and interventions to achieve those over a communication to ease congestion and facilitate intermodal
specific timeframe.96 travel;102 and autonomous vehicles, connected cars on
shared mobility platforms.103
Achieving sustainable transport systems in complex urban
environments requires integrating transport planning with However, the most effective responses are relatively low-cost
other policy domains. For instance, health impact assessments and/or low-tech: better planning regulations; introduction of
(HIAs) are integrative modelling tools to mainstream public low-emission zones; support for cycling and walking; and
health concerns into policy. However, urban dwellers are rapid transit systems. Low-cost responses are particularly
rarely involved in the development of HIAs for urban and relevant in highly unequal cities where most people do
transport planning.97 Involving people in decisions relating to not have access to private cars or public transport and thus
public health improves the efficacy of any interventions and, rely on walking, cycling or informal taxis. The COVID-19
crisis has also fostered low-tech, low-cost measures such
as pedestrianizing streets, expanding cycle lane networks
Achieving sustainable or implementing low-traffic neighbourhoods as means to
transport systems in complex encourage safer, healthier and less polluting forms of travel.
urban environments requires
integrating transport planning In conclusion, scenario planning is a promising tool to
with other policy domains navigate uncertain futures. Still, it only works alongside
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mobility options in the same way. Thus, there is greater

Low-tech interventions should have a prominent interest in developing transport strategies with groups
role alongside other widely promoted high-tech whose experiences have traditionally not been included
solutions in traditional transport planning, which tends to assume
that users of urban mobility are able-bodied males.106 For
instance, not everyone can shift transport options depending
inclusive, participatory processes that ensure all urban on their income or avoid travel entirely. During the COVID-19
dwellers— particularly those with limited access to different pandemic, informal and essential workers in urban areas had
travel options—can take part in the definition of urban no choice but to go to work on public transport.
futures.104 Travel demand forecasting tools do not easily
capture many mobility practices, such as informal transport Local governments can make a big difference in opening
and active modes of travel. Low-tech interventions should cities and urban areas to cater to diverse mobility needs with
have a prominent role alongside other widely promoted minor neighbourhood investments. Simple measures make
high-tech solutions. Future transport planning will need a tangible difference, such as street and sidewalk repairs,
to integrate, above all, adaptability and flexibility through pavement widening, ramp installation, step-free access to
consistent evaluation frameworks to guide decisions in a public transport, and well-designed wayfinding signage to
context of uncertainty.105 Importantly, holistic transport facilitate access for people with specific mobility needs,
planning approaches and frameworks such as Sustainable from wheelchair users to caregivers with pushchairs to older
Urban Mobility Plans (SUMPs) as well as the embrace of persons to the visually or aurally impaired.
concepts like the 15-minutes neighbourhood (discussed
in Chapter 6) should be viewed and promoted as vital to In addition to physical infrastructure improvements,
securing a greener urban future. affordable fares facilitate public transport access. Many cities
have free or subsidized fares for low-income riders, youth
5.2.3. Inclusive mobility at the forefront and older persons. Tallin (Estonia) introduced free transport
Achieving greater justice and sustainability through future for its residents in 2013. The initiative was so successful that
transport and mobility planning will require decision-makers it was expanded nationally in 2018. However, undesirable
to recognize that not everyone can access transport and effects included shifts from active travel to public transport
Bicycle sharing station in New York © Shutterstock
153
for some users, new pressures on the network to meet Informal transport systems exist alongside or instead of
new users’ needs, and limitations on revenues for further formal, public or private transport provision systems.
improvements.107 Whether run by independent operators or larger cartels,
informal transport typically operates outside regulatory
frameworks as few developing countries have resources
Safety is vital to to enforce rules and requirements for transport sector.112
sustainable mobility. However, operators often self-regulate through “unions”
Ensuring that streets and that “police” operations on specific routes or terminals.
public transport are safer
for everyone is a challenge Informal and paratransit systems tend to be used by the
that requires urban design urban poor and the middle class, especially when public
interventions transport options are limited. They play a fundamental
role in filling the gaps in peripheral urban areas, which
Safety is vital to sustainable mobility. Ensuring that streets are often overlooked in public transport networks. For
and public transport are safer for everyone is a challenge example, mothers and caregivers in Abidjan tend to use
that requires urban design interventions. Some groups like informal collective transports to drop their children at
women, sex workers, and gender and sex non-conforming school.113 Informal transport offers urban dwellers different
people face exclusion from public spaces and roads because vehicle types, including minibuses, collective taxis and both
they are unsafe. Several cities have started to act on those motorized and non-motorized two or three-wheelers (Table
issues, particularly addressing street harassment against 5.3). However, the informal transport sector faces safety and
women and harassment in public transport. Torreón, Mexico, pollution issues because vehicles are not regularly replaced
has partnered with women’s groups, municipal workers, or maintained.
and UN Women to develop new mobility regulations that
safeguard women and girls’ safety in public transport. The Informal transport networks should be integrated into
mobility regulations serve as a code of conduct for transport future transport planning, with adequate provisions to
authorities, staff, and passengers and entails compulsory support improvements in safety and reduction of polluting
training on gender violence for public transport workers. emissions. Combining formal and informal transport
108 The city of Cairo, Egypt, includes gender assessments in provision may be effective. Informal transport networks
transportation design, facilitating the creation of safer routes can link urban dwellers living in underserved areas to
for women using public transport. These efforts range from public transport hubs, avoiding the need to expand public
collecting new data (e.g. sex-disaggregated data that reflects infrastructure networks and building on what already
women passengers’ experiences), promoting women’s exists.
view in the decision-making process and designing gender-
responsive interventions (e.g. last-mile safe footpath to bus Countries such as Senegal and the Philippines have
stops).109 introduced stricter regulations to force minibus drivers
to buy less polluting vehicles. While these measures can
5.2.4. Integrating informal transport systems encourage the decarbonization of popular transport modes,
Often, mobility planning tools struggle to account for they also jeopardize the livelihoods of drivers and operators,
informal transport systems. Informal transport and for instance, without adequate subsidies and financial
paratransit systems (e.g. shared taxis operating based on incentives to switch vehicles. Local governments can work
riders’ destination and minibuses operating on fixed routes) with operators, drivers, and passengers to plan safer, more
are central to support the mobility needs of millions of efficient routes or to facilitate upgrades to cleaner vehicles
people.110 In cities like Kayseri, Turkey, the informal sector and fuels.
may account for 60 per cent of urban trips, and in some
African cities such as Dakar or Freetown, over 90 per cent
of daily trips depend on informal transport.111 The rise
of private-sector app-based ride-hailing services such as Informal transport networks should be
Careem, Grab and Uber poses challenges with regards to integrated into future transport planning, with
the nature and dynamics of formalization that is required adequate provisions to support improvements in
in urban transport. safety and reduction of polluting emissions
154
Table 5.3: Informal transport examples
Informal transport mode Usage Examples

Minibus/Jitney Operates on fixed routes, following semi-fixed schedules. Can Examples of minibus/jitneys include cars rapide (Dakar),
accommodate 12 to 24 passengers and operate across long matatu (Nairobi), jeepneys (Manila), dolmus (Istanbul)
distances (beyond the neighbourhood)
Microbus/Pick-up Operates on fixed routes, following semi-fixed schedules. Can Examples of microbus include mikrolets (Jakarta),
accommodate 4 to 11 passengers and operate across long Selman (Hanoi)
distances (beyond the neighbourhood)
Three-wheeler/Motorcycle/Collective Operates on variable routes at variable schedules, demand Examples of three-wheelers include bajajs and bemos
Taxi driven. Can accommodate 1 to 4 passengers and operates at (Jakarta), rickshaws (Dhaka)
the neighbourhood level).
Pedicab/Horse cart Operates on variable routes at variable schedules, demand Examples of pedicabs include becaks (Jakarta)
driven. Can accommodate 1 to 6 passengers and operates at Examples of hores carts include calesas (Manila)
the neighbourhood level).
Sources: Kumar et al, 2021; Cervero, 2000.
Policymakers face three options to manage the informal Urban areas will be affected directly (for example, by
transport sector:114 frequent extreme climate events, sea-level rise and increased
probability of flooding) and indirectly (for example, by large-
Ban operations and run the risk of displacing service scale ecosystem and social processes such as migration or
provision to new locations. disruption to supply chains). New findings on the relationship
between regional and urban climate suggest that unplanned
Accept the existence of informal transport systems and unsustainable urbanization patterns also exacerbate
without addressing the challenges they pose, particularly impacts such as heatwaves and precipitation.
air pollution and congestion.
5.3.1. Safety and resilience in urban policy
Integrating and improving existing systems into Safety and resilience have become essential themes in
urban and metropolitan mobility planning and service urban sustainability policy. The Global Commission on
provision. Adaptation argues that an investment of US$1.8 trillion
from 2020 to 2030 could generate US$7.1 trillion
The third option will be the most effective to deliver inclusive in total net benefits.118 Urban areas already require
and sustainable mobility. investments in climate-resilient infrastructure to improve
housing, transport, water, sanitation, drainage and waste
management. Whether or not urban areas can meet
5.3. Embracing Resilience for Greener adaptation challenges, adaptation actions will not happen
Urban Futures without consequences and differential impacts are already
palpable across urban areas.
The 5th IPCC Assessment Report highlighted the
vulnerabilities of urban areas to climate change impacts and Adaptation and resilience agenda is interlinked with
identified opportunities for incremental and transformative development agendas. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable
adaptation.115 The Special Report on Global Warming of Development tied “sustainable cities and communities” to
1.5°C pointed towards risks in urban areas, particularly both safety and resilience (SDG 11). The New Urban Agenda
in unplanned and informal urban settlements.116 The highlighted cities’ importance to “reduce vulnerability, build
contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment resilience and responsiveness to natural and human-made
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate states hazards and foster mitigation of and adaptation to climate
that human influence on the climate system is now “an change.” Adaptation will likely be a salient challenge for
established fact” and its impacts are already apparent.117 cities in the 21st century.
155
Adaptation is also redefining the urban economy. Local and

regional governments, businesses, and citizens will seek to
protect human lives, livelihoods and material assets. Many
are working to transform adaptation burdens into financial
and innovation opportunities. However, adaptation and
resilience are intrinsically linked to the need to deliver fairer,
more inclusive urban futures.
adaptation and resilience are

intrinsically linked to the need to
deliver fairer, more inclusive urban
futures
5.3.2. Inequitable distribution of environmental

burdens
Disadvantaged groups bear a disproportionate burden of
environmental risks in cities. The urban poor worldwide Flooded street in Dhaka, Bangladesh © Shutterstock
experience higher exposure to health risks through lack
of access to clean water119 and exposure to outdoor air
pollution,120 toxic materials,121 waste,122 and indoor air housing and other protective amenities (e.g. health care,
pollution due to limited access to clean fuels.123 Low- water and sanitation services, and social protection).126
income neighbourhoods also frequently have less access to Climate impacts are linked to many different risks, which
environmental resources, such as green space124 and clean disproportionately affect informal settlements and low-
energy.125 The depictions by country in Map 5.1 to Map income neighbourhoods, such as water scarcity127 and
5.4 paint a highly unequal landscape of access to water and exposure to infectious diseases.128 Groups that are exposed
sanitation. to these risks include children,129 women,130 the elderly131
and communities suffering racial or ethnic exclusion.132
The risks to the urban poor are likely to worsen in the Environmental risks also disproportionately impact groups
future. The urban poor are more vulnerable to the impacts already experiencing a lack of security, for example, due to
of climate change as they often live on sites that are more low and unstable incomes, exclusion from social protection
exposed to extreme weather events (e.g. flooding, landslides, systems, or exposure to violence, including urban refugees133
extreme heat and cold) and with limited access to secure and migrants.134
Box 5.4: Urbanization and climate impacts
The latest IPCC report documents the impacts of climate change on urban areas, which will suffer extreme events such as heatwaves,
sea-level rise, storm surge from tropical cyclones and intense rainfall. The combination of more frequent extreme events and future
urban development suggests that climate change adaptation has become the main priority for local governments.
Moreover, the latest IPCC report documents the complex interactions that influence the expression of climate impacts in urban
environments, for example, in the heat island effect or the alterations of the water cycle in urban environments. It highlights the
compounded risks that are also likely to affect cities, such as the intensification of warming and mean precipitation. Additionally, a
combination of increases in relative sea level and storm surge from tropical cyclones increases the probability of coastal city flooding.
Source: Global Commission on Adaptation, 2019; IPCC, 2021.
156
Map 5.1: Percentage of urban population with access to basic sanitation facilities by country
Map 5.2: Percentage of urban population with sewerage connections by country
157
Map 5.3: Percentage of urban population with access to uncontaminated water by country
Map 5.4: Percentage of urban population with access to piped water by country
Source: Data Analytics Unit, UN-Habitat
158
5.3.3. Urban climate adaptation planning the potential to address environmental impacts as well as
Urban climate adaptation planning is “the purposeful urban inequality.138 Global data on urbanization patterns
development by local governments of activities and indicate a continuous rate of urban expansion, also known
strategies designed to reduce the effects of climate as urban sprawl, as cities consume land at a faster rate than
change on natural, built, and social systems.”135 There the growth of their populations. As such, building denser
are multiple options for climate adaptation in cities, urban areas is generally understood as a more sustainable
such as water management, land-use planning and green urban growth model.139 However, density also influences
infrastructure.136 Cities have no choice but to adapt the patterns of infrastructure distribution and shapes urban
to climate change.137 A new paradigm is emerging in inequities (see Chapter 2).140
adaptation planning that recognizes climate change as an
ongoing, dynamic phenomenon in contemporary societies Planning for resilience must also take into account the
requiring multiple actions, feedback and adjustments. physical and institutional context of urban planning. A
As the well-being of the city entails multiple dynamic recent study of climate-resilient cities in India examined
processes (economic transactions, social interactions, urban climate action plans developed by thirteen municipal
resource use) and a diverse set of actors, the pursuit of a corporations (Table 5.4).141 Such plans usually emerge with
climate-resilient future requires adaptation planning that support from national or international funding or as part of
works for everyone (Figure 5.4). broader developmental agendas. While each plan focuses on
different problem areas (such as energy, carbon sequestration
or urban green spaces), these plans rarely reflect the
the pursuit of a climate-resilient future requires contextual peculiarities of the city but rather reproduce
adaptation planning that works for everyone statements made by the National Action Plan on Climate
Change (NAPCC). Most of these plans rely on technological
and built infrastructural interventions while overlooking the
A central challenge to this paradigm is the amount of potential of nature-based solutions or consideration of local
available urban land and how it is used, which influences knowledge bases, ecologies and processes.
Figure 5.4: Characteristics of inclusive adaptation planning
Action-oriented plans
that start with mapping
risks and vulnerabilities
Ongoing adaptive process

that facilitates learning and
constant adjustment
Strategic approach starts with

INCLUSIVE ADAPTATION
no-regrets measures while also
PLANNING
prioritizing critical interventions
Plan recognises a wide range

of response capacities across
the population
Process ensures broader public

support and active participation
from individuals and communities
159
Table 5.4: Climate planning in Indian cities

Type of plan Cities Problem areas Broader influence on urban Governance issues Governance issues
agenda represented missing
Carbon neutral city Pune Renewables, NAPCC – National Action Plan Urban agenda International
plans Carbon sequestration on Climate Change State centre relationships
relationships
City development Nagpur Pollution PM Council on Climate Change Urban agenda State/Centre
plans Water relationships
Gardens International
Open spaces relationships
Disasters
Climate change
Sustainable development
Resilient city plans Gorakhpur Water NAPCC/SAPCC/Asian cities Urban agenda State/Centre
Indore Health climate resilience network/ State centre relationships
Chennai Disasters ADB funding strategy relationships International
Kolkata Solid wastes relationships
Surat Energy
Vizag Transport
Low carbon
Green cover
Resource stress
Non renewables
Disaster Koraput Floods Disaster Management Act, Urban agenda International

management plans Fire 2005 State/centre relationships
Drought relationships
Heat
Environment Chandrapur Pollution MoEF directives Urban agenda State/Centre

status reports Nanded Solid waste MPCB directives relationships
Mining International
Health relationships
Heat action plans Ahmedabad Heat Disaster Management Act, Urban agenda International
Hazaribagh 2005 State/Centre relationships
relationships
Source: Unnikrishnan and Nagendra, 2021.
5.3.4. Tools to deliver climate-resilient urban futures infrastructures such as water and sanitation remain a
Urban adaptation responses often emphasize the development significant concern because of their impact on achieving other
of climate-resilient infrastructure.142 Climate-resilient SDGs and because they impact directly on people’s ability to
infrastructure is planned, designed, built, and operated in ways cope with disasters. As Map 5.1 to Map 5.4 show, there is still
that take into account climate-related variability to withstand a substantial deficit in water and sanitation access in several
future climate-changed conditions.143 Resilience will involve regions of the world, especially Sub-Saharan Africa. Figure
measures related to the design of new infrastructures and 5.5 and Figure 5.6 further shows that urban populations
the retrofitting of old ones, from ICT networks to housing. have the highest rates of access. Still, these statistics hide
Digitalization, for example, is increasingly seen as mediating highly uneven patterns of access, as heterogeneous systems
more responsive infrastructure systems but exposes of provision dominate the urban environment. Moreover, the
infrastructures to new risks and dependencies. definitions of improved access may range widely and includes
many people who depend on water kiosks or tanks or having
Standard urban adaptation measures include water shared facilities: facilities may exist in the proximity but that
storage, flood defences, and water supply and sanitation, does not automatically guarantee that urban populations
alongside housing and spatial planning. For example, basic have their needs covered.144
160
Figure 5.5: Access to basic water facilities
Figure 5.6: Access to basic sanitation facilities
Source: Data Analytics Unit, UN-Habitat.
161
Urban adaptation also requires a broader range of measures, climate change145. CBA is especially important in settings
including the development of prevention measures to where formal institutions overlook the vulnerability of
tackle vulnerability and develop early warning systems, informal settlements and urgent action is required to address
alongside efforts to contain and mitigate disasters, and issues like flooding and service delivery146. CBA helps
measures to facilitate rebuilding and adjustment—for recognizing local capabilities and can be conducted through
example, through the development of nimble infrastructure various participatory methods, including participatory
networks. Urban adaptation needs to be considered at mapping,147 vulnerability indices,148 community engagement
the planning stage, in new infrastructures, in retrofitting in risk communication,149 and community-based vulnerability
existing infrastructures, and in examining the additional assessments.150
infrastructure needs that climate change generates. A
‘capability’ approach to urban design seeks to understand
actions in the built environment that build resilience while Urban adaptation needs to be considered at
also delivering co-benefits (Table 5.5). the planning stage, in new infrastructures,
in retrofitting existing infrastructures, and in
Community-based adaptation (CBA) represents interventions examining the additional infrastructure needs
led by communities to build resilience against the impacts of that climate change generates
Participatory design and mapping exercise in Kilifi, Kenya © Julius Mwelu/ UN-Habitat
162
Table 5.5: Maintaining build environment capabilities for climate change mitigation and adaptation
Built environment capabilities Climate change mitigation strategies Climate change adaptation strategies
Health
Outdoor environmental Minimize environmental costs (proximate and distal) of all Protect proximate and distal landscapes and built environment
quality at multiple scales infrastructure from climate change impacts (e.g. heatwaves, droughts, floods,
(global to neighbourhood) storms etc.)
Indoor environmental quality Ensure low-carbon building does not compromise indoor Enhance access to spaces of high indoor environmental quality;
including air, sound and light environmental quality ensure efforts to enhance indoor environmental quality do not
quality, physical integrity impose stress on outdoor environmental quality
Outdoor thermal adequacy Seek to reduce outdoor thermal stress imposed through the Protect or enhance mechanisms for low-carbon outdoor thermal
built environment, including microclimatic characteristics comfort
Indoor thermal adequacy Recognize potential implications of mitigation policy on Enhance access to domestic low-carbon thermal comfort
indoor thermal adequacy control; ensure efforts to enhance indoor thermal comfort do
not negatively affect outdoor thermal comfort and/or generate
additional greenhouse gas emissions
Physical safety
Home Building and operation practices that provide high-quality, Minimize vulnerability of permanent and temporary residential
low-carbon, affordable housing areas to extreme climate events and long-term impacts
Care settings (e.g. care Building and operation practices that provide high-quality, Minimize vulnerability of care settings to extreme climate events
homes and extra-care homes) low-carbon care provision and long-term impacts
Work/school/public life Building and operation practices that provide high-quality, Minimize vulnerability of workplaces, schools and public
low-carbon infrastructure for employment, education and institutions to extreme climate events and long-term impacts
public life
Accessibility and mobility Implementing low-carbon, safe and accessible mobility Ensure low-carbon transportation infrastructure, including human-
services; reduce non-human-powered mobility needs overall powered mobility systems, is accessible and functioning through
extreme climate events
Cultural vitality
Public spaces Building high-quality, low-carbon public spaces (including Ensure protections and inclusive access for public space in order
protecting adequate green space) designed to nurture public to meet the diversity of needs this space addresses in the face of
and cultural life extreme climate events and long-term impacts
Sacred sites and cultural Avoid damaging sacred or culturally significant sites or Develop meaningful strategies for managing the irreversible loss
amenities amenities when developing low-carbon infrastructure; reduce of sacred or culturally significant sites (including landscapes)
emissions related to sacred sites or cultural activities
Essential services
Water and sanitation Ensure low-carbon, safe and adequate water and sanitation Protect and/or redesign water and sanitation services for resilience
services in the face of extreme climate events and long-term impacts
Food systems Invest in human and material infrastructure to reduce Protect and/or redesign food systems infrastructure (including
greenhouse gas emissions of food systems through the for subsistence production) for resilience in the face of extreme
entire supply chain climate events and long-term impacts
Public health Ensure adequate low-carbon and accessible public health, Ensure public health infrastructure (and access to it) is protected
including minimizing transportation needs from extreme climate events or long-term impacts
Source: Klinsky and Mavrogianni, 2020.
A key element of adaptation planning is the identification of conformity. Many of these identities have been observed to
vulnerable urban populations. Vulnerabilities are often linked have the potential influence aspects of institutional, cultural,
to inequalities. Urban populations may see their capability and structural environments that affect people’s everyday
to respond to climate change compromised because of their lives. However, each experience must be understood in its
gender, age, ability, caste, race, sexual orientation and gender own unique way.
163
The slogan “nothing about us without us”151 emerges from an Another challenge which has already highlighted in the
Eastern European tradition of political struggles. The slogan previous chapters of this report is the exclusion of the informal
has served many groups that are identified as vulnerable to economy. Governing institutions tend to exclude it without
claim their voice in policy processes that purport to respond recognizing the potential supporting role that informal
to their needs. The disability rights movements, for example, economy opportunities may provide to ensuring an inclusive
use this slogan as a means for people to claim a voice in green growth, one that also supports social groups already
political debates and demand control over their lives, suffering discrimination, exclusion and poverty. Notably, past
which may be limited by the dependencies generated by research has shown that only 25 per cent of countries (or 15 of
powerlessness, poverty, and institutionalization.152 An open 60 countries) make explicit mention of the informal economy
city that responds to the needs of people with disabilities— in their national green economy plans.154
and hence everyone—would require the active involvement
of those very people.153 Lastly, it is important to take cognizance of the paradigm
shifts in climate change planning processes. While
research on climate change planning initially emphasized
local authorities’ capacities and institutions, the focus has
resilience depends not only on shifted progressively towards planning as a collaborative and
facilitating innovation but also on collective project.155 Multiple actors, such as civil society, the
not adding to existing burdens private sector, representatives of professional associations
and academia, communities, and citizens, are involved in
The slogan has also been adopted by other groups claiming collaborative planning processes that can deliver adaptation
their right to the city, from waste pickers to sex and gender planning (see section 5.5.2 for a discussion of various means
non-conforming people. With this slogan, different people of involvement).
groups claim urban space and display their capacity to
influence their environment and quality of life. Moreover, 5.3.5. Just urban resilience
the slogan is a powerful reminder that resilience depends There are two interpretations of resilience: one is functional
not only on facilitating innovation but also on not adding and relates to optimizing the process of recovery; the other
to existing burdens. The demands for politically redressing focuses on the structural challenges and relates to coupling
existing injustices in the urban environment call for endurance and recovery to demands for justice. Part of the
collaborative processes that build resilience through challenge relates not only to the complexity of resilience as
challenging the drivers of inequality. a problem to be addressed with current resources but also
to the proliferation of climate responses that only entrench
Informality shapes the vulnerability of people, and as urban and reproduce existing inequalities, and that safeguard some
areas continue to grow, the gap between infrastructure populations at the expense of others:
available and needs will likely grow. However, perhaps the
most significant challenge faced by people living in informal Climate justice means calling out “false”
settlements is the recognition of their capacities, and solutions to mitigating climate change
sometimes, even their existence. Yet, their capacities in that seek to ease the energy transition
community-led profiling of their neighbourhoods holds great for the fossil industry and privileged
promise (see Chapter 10). There is a need to understand what populations. Many of these false solutions
just urban adaptation—or, more generally, a just transition— involve mining, new infrastructure and
looks like from the perspective of an informal settlement. exploitative profit and labour schemes
that will generate further environmental
Often, relatively cheap and straightforward responses (such and climate injustice.156
as waste collection to reduce flooding, housing designs
that facilitate cooling, green public space, transitions to In that context, delivering resilience is closely linked to our
streetlights with solar power, access to clean fuels, and ability to challenge structural drivers of discrimination—
collective maintenance of green spaces, among other be it discrimination resulting from historical legacies of
measures) may have an enormous impact. Yet, climate racism, colonialism; discrimination related to sex, gender,
finance tends to concentrate on large, prestige-oriented age, ability; or other less visible forms of discrimination
infrastructure projects. encountered in everyday life. In that sense, building
164
resilience requires engaging with the historical processes 5.4. Nature-based Solutions and
that have produced vulnerability in contemporary cities. Environmental Futures
Many of these vulnerabilities are manifest in the spatial
configuration of cities, for example: Nature-based solutions (NBSs) are a potential mechanism to
manage the impacts of climate change in urban spaces. NBSs
The spatial division in urban areas between are promising in the context of halting biodiversity loss and
neighbourhoods that are better serviced than others, restoring urban ecosystem services in economically viable
with lower-income populations being hosted in areas ways.166 The International Union for Conservation of Nature
where access to basic services such as water, mobility, or (IUCN) defines NBSs as “actions to protect, sustainably
energy are compromised.157 manage, and restore (create) natural or modified ecosystems”
that simultaneously address social challenges, providing both
The creation of areas of privilege safeguarded at the human well-being and biodiversity benefits.167 The European
expense of others, for example, in the creation of new Commission explains that because they are inspired and
enclaves of privilege. In Africa, for example, there is supported by nature, NBSs are cost-effective and provide
a proliferation of “urban fantasies” in urban projects environmental, social, and economic benefits.168
and masterplans that do not only fail to recognize the
realities of urban development in African contexts but
also impact negatively on the lives and livelihoods of
urban populations, even when those projects are not
even constructed.158
The privatization of services and public space, reducing

the urban commons for everyone.159
The displacement of people who are prized out of

certain neighbourhoods, after the environmental quality
of those neighbourhoods raises local prizes in multiple
manifestations of gentrification.160
The differentiation of areas with different levels of

risks,161 that often end up accommodating vulnerable
populations and new migrants.162
The siting of large infrastructures in areas considered of

less value, normally inhabited by less powerful black or
indigenous communities—and the creation of sacrifice
zones163 in processes long documented in indigenous
struggles and environmental racism that claim for
different frames of reference beyond development.164
Inclusive greener futures can be secured though active

practices of building resilience through community
innovation and collaborative planning (see section 5.5 ) and
through the prevention of processes that negate peoples’
lives and existence through the implicit privileging of some
lives over others—what the philosopher Achille Mbembe
has called necropolitics.165 These are all processes directed
through infrastructure and spatial planning and through
policymaking, which can be actively prevented in the quest Bosco Verticale seen from the Biblioteca degli Alberi (BAM), park located between Piazza
for just urban adaptation (see also section 5.5.1). Gae Aulenti and the Isola district, Milan, Italy © Shutterstock
165
Table 5.6: Nature as a response to societal challenges
Definition Examples
Ecosystem services Focus on the benefits that the natural environment and Regulating the provision of water, food and services
ecosystem provide to humans and societies Facilitating nutrient cycling
Biomimicry Biomimicry involves approaches that emulate nature to Fibbers that mimic spiders’ silk
develop responses to human challenges, for example, Imitation of algae for water purification
in urban design Building materials that imitate the structures of mycelium
Ecosystem-based adaptation Use of ecosystem services to reduce vulnerabilities Restoration of coastal habitats such as mangroves
and mitigation to climate change impacts and to reduce carbon Restoration of wetlands and peatlands
emissions
Green and blue infrastructure The vegetational- and water-related elements that Involve a range of infrastructures including blue (rivers, canals,
structure the built environment and provide additional ponds, wetlands, floodplains, water treatment facilities) and
services green (trees, lawns, hedgerows, parks, fields, urban forests)
Ecosystem approaches Strategies that focus on the integrated management Activities that involve people, value ecosystems, and
of land and nature, which consider humans part of the understand ecological processes
ecosystem
NBSs highlight the importance of biodiversity and ecosystems requiring careful integration into the region’s urban planning
to address urban challenges such as adapting to climate change, goals. Lastly, the long-term implications of NBSs, especially
enhancing food security and or facilitating water access. in terms of social and ecological change in the places where
NBSs are aligned with the United Nations 2030 Agenda for they are implemented, remain unknown (Figure 5.7).
Sustainable Development and follow a tradition of designing
with nature to respond to human challenges (Table 5.6).169 5.4.1. Biodiversity and ecosystem services enable
urban life
While NBSs offer several benefits, they can also pose some Urban blue and green spaces provide multiple ecosystem
challenges for urban areas. First, NBSs such as greening and services that are essential for human wellbeing, for
artificial wetlands for sewage treatment require significant example:170
provision of land and physical space. Land-intensive
responses to environmental crises may not be practical or may Providing basic ecosystem services, such as food and
generate additional challenges, especially when they displace water
existing land uses. Second, if not guided by a right-based
approach, NBSs may displace local economies dependent Enabling cultural ecosystem services, such as
upon the urban landscape—thereby perpetuating systemic recreational and spiritual benefits
or structural violence. Third, NBSs are not always the most
effective means to address certain challenging problems, Supporting regenerative ecosystem services such as
such as soil and water pollution. Fourth, NBSs may conflict nutrient recycling, soil conservation and microclimate
with larger technological or economic development agendas, regulation
166
Figure 5.7: Benefits and limitations of nature-based solutions
Both urban sprawl and densification (due to the urban Integrating NBSs in policy and planning further suffers
heat island effect) pose challenges to public health, natural from a lack of clarity in the underlying science and the
systems and ecosystem services.171 Rapid urbanization has very complexity inherent in the dynamics of urban social-
placed additional demands on urban ecosystem services, ecological systems.179 NBSs may arise through collective
thus driving a scarcity of material and biological resources. motivation in the peripheries of cities that lack access to
At the same time, ecosystems are functioning at reduced critical infrastructures for water, sanitation, mobility and
capacity due to pollution and extraction.172 The pressures energy.180 However, NBSs are often perceived as inferior
of urbanization and increasing population often render to centralized physical infrastructure (such as electricity
urban green and blue infrastructure vulnerable.173 Urban networks or large waterworks) and are usually overlooked
inequalities manifest in differentiated access to ecosystem when these regions receive connectivity through more
services, such as less access to green spaces and a reduced extensive city-based networked infrastructures.181
urban tree canopy for lower-income urban dwellers.174
These inequalities can have deadly ramifications as climate Rural and urban dichotomies persist, despite being
change impacts urban health. challenged on the ground by substantial differences between
jurisdictional and administrative boundaries, resource flows
Urban planning policies across the globe continue to focus and built-up spaces.182 Some fields of study, such as landscape
on built infrastructure and technological improvements with ecology, have moved beyond these dichotomies to recognize
limited consideration of ecosystems and biodiversity.175 gradients of rurality and urbanity—in other words visualizing
For example, the large-scale conversion of biodiverse areas landscapes where the rural melds into the urban, forming
to farmland or housing impacts negatively on ecosystem rural-urban continuums.183 Such approaches examine peri-
services.176 Moreover, urban planning rarely integrates urban regions’ social and ecological dynamics, especially
biodiversity and ecosystem services into service and design, in developing contexts where centralized infrastructure
aside from demonstration projects.177 Even when focusing for critical ecosystem resources such as water and energy
on these challenges, urban planning tends to focus on provision may often be fragmented, missing or deleterious.
symptomatic short-term and incremental treatments to However, these approaches are still rare.
problems that require transformative planning and long-term
solutions.178
167
5.4.2. Building resilience with NBSs interventions.187 The success of NBSs for flood control in
NBSs support societal development and enhance human São Paulo (Brazil) have encouraged municipal authorities
well-being in ways that reflect the plural cultural values to include them in the city’s Climate Action Plan in the
of urban society while enhancing urban resilience and the context of stormwater management.188 Rewilding of parts of
capacity of cities to provide essential ecosystem services.184 Slovenia’s Mediterranean coastline has improved soil quality,
Indeed in many urban areas, NBSs have been associated with thus positively impacting the region’s ability to sequester
positive effects on urban biodiversity and human health. carbon and store water, as well as its overall biodiversity
capacity.189 An NBS approach adopted within Copenhagen
Studies in cities in the US and India have demonstrated that after a 2011 flooding event was highly effective in reducing
daytime air temperature is significantly reduced in urban urban flood risk, though the implementation of NBSs in the
areas with a greater tree canopy cover, especially on the city has since been highly contested.190
hottest days of the year and times of the day.185 Globally
it has been shown that green spaces within cities (such as Real estate values often increase dramatically as properties
parks or other tree lined areas) are on an average 0.94°C get closer to urban green and blue spaces.191 The effect of
cooler than build up areas without greenery.186 this increases may be mixed, as nature-based projects may
also drive processes of urban gentrification that intensify
NBSs involving the establishment of wetlands and green inequalities.192 NBSs may provide local employment and
urban spaces in Italy have reduced urban flood risk with business opportunities with beneficial outcomes for society,
a reported 10 per cent greater reduction in downstream environment and public health.193 A recent study shows that
flood events and a 7.5 per cent reduction in peak flow ecosystem restoration creates 3.7 times as many jobs as oil
when compared with non-NBS-based infrastructural and gas production per dollar (Box 5.5).194
Box 5.5: Job comparison between green and unsustainable investment types
Building efficiency creates 2.8 times as many jobs as fossil fuels per US$1 million
Industrial efficiency creates 1.8 times as many jobs as fossil fuels per US$1 million
Geothermal energy creates 1.7 times as many jobs as fossil fuels per US$1 million
Solar photovoltaic energy creates 1.5 times as many jobs as fossil fuels per US$1 million
Upgrades to existing grids create 1.5 times as many jobs as fossil fuels per US$1 million
Wind energy creates 1.2 times as many jobs as fossil fuels per US$1 million
Hydropower creates 1.2 times as many jobs as fossil fuels per US$1 million
Pedestrian-only infrastructure creates 1.3 times as many jobs as road construction per US$1 million
Bicycle-only infrastructure creates 1.4 times as many jobs as road construction per US$1 million
Mass transit creates 1.4 times as many jobs as road construction per US$1 million
Railways creates 0.8 times as many jobs as road construction per US$1 million
Electric vehicle manufacturing creates 0.9 times as many jobs as internal combustion engine vehicles per US$1 million
Battery cell manufacturing creates 1.2 times as many jobs as internal combustion engine vehicles per US$1 million
Electric vehicle charging infrastructure creates 2.0 times as many jobs as internal combustion engine vehicles per US$1
million
Ecosystem restoration creates 3.7 times as many jobs as oil and gas production per US$1 million
Source: World Resources Institute et al, 2021.
168
NBSs, therefore, present an approach to developing Restoration and protection of biodiversity through greenbelts,
sustainable solutions that focus on human well-being, regenerative farming, permaculture and pollinator gardens
while at the same time being responsive to long-term are important components of NBSs for urban planning.205
environmental changes and associated hazards.195 Often, NBSs to regulate ecosystem services include the use of
they provide economically viable and inclusive responses.196 compost from organic waste in urban agriculture to promote
They can be integrated in planning processes that not only nutrient recycling, nitrogen and phosphorus recovery
value nature beyond benefits and services to humans, but through cultivated wetlands that recycle wastewater, and
also incorporate diverse perspectives relating to nature and nutrient loss reduction through stormwater drainage and
community that emerge within plural cultural contexts.197 rooftop gardening.206
UN-Habitat and UNEP, with the support of European
Union, is currently implementing the Go Blue Project NBSs can also be integrated into large infrastructural
across six counties in Kenya’s coastal region (Kilifi, Kwale, projects. For example, water-efficient cityscapes promote
Lamu, Mombasa, Taita Taveta and Tana River). The project flood control through green infrastructure, thus reducing
aims to unlock opportunities in urban centres in these surface runoff, increasing groundwater retention and
counties for sustained and inclusive economic growth, while filtering pollutants.207 Guidelines for integrating NBSs into
mainstreaming conservation and sustainable use of the urban planning must consider the sustainable sourcing of raw
coastal and marine environment.198 material required for NBSs, further involving measures for
resource traceability and exchanging industrial infrastructure
5.4.3. NBSs for sustainable urban futures and other by-products.208
Ecological considerations should be an integral part of urban
planning processes. Integrating NBSs in urban planning Participatory governance can support the creation of social
and policy requires appropriate capacities to respond to the networks to support, develop and maintain NBSs.209 NBS-
fundamental changes that societies face while keeping nature based design can support the co-creation of specially designed
at the centre of planning processes and frameworks. The and equitable spaces for different social groups, addressing
city of Manizales, Colombia, for instance, is mainstreaming questions of age, ability, gender, sexual orientation, or race.
biodiversity solutions into its planning policy and legal A study in Berlin showed that supportive social networks
frameworks, supported by UN-Habitat and University of facilitate the access of elderly people to green spaces.210
Michigan.199 Cities may have a certain potential to buffer the impacts
of change, enhance human well-being and contribute to
NBSs can also be integrated into the circular economy to global sustainability and resilience.211 However, these
restore existing relations with nature in urban environments strategies require an understanding of the social, ecological
and incorporate nature into sustainable business models.200 and economic peculiarities of urban spaces in order to
“Bioconnections” are strategies that promote reconnections assess the suitability of proposed NBSs, beyond standalone
between society and nature with efforts aimed at stewarding, interventions.212 In sum, NBSs must be part of inclusive
regenerating and maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem planning processes for sustainable urban futures.
services to support the circular economy.201 Examples of
bioconnections include traditional methods like reforestation
for carbon sequestration and experimental methods like 5.5. Inclusive Planning Processes
using microalgae photobioreactors to extract nutrients from
wastewater, produce oil, generate biomass and electricity.202 Envisioning and realizing a greener urban future require
inclusive planning processes. Addressing existing
The use of engineered wood or bamboo from reforested vulnerabilities and inequalities213 and delivering just and
sources could create carbon sinks in urban spaces as it has transformative outcomes necessitates the involvement
been shown that materials such as bamboo can remove five of diverse perspectives.214 This section focuses on, first,
to six times more carbon from the atmosphere in comparison identifying existing inequalities and injustices in urban
to conventional timber-based construction material,203 environmental decision-making and, second, proposes
although globally, the extent to which construction materials a set of approaches to include diverse perspectives in
can remove carbon emissions also depends on how forests environmental decision-making. A recent joint publication by
are managed.204 UNEP and UN-Habitat highlights the importance of seeking
equity and justice across all local environmental action and
169
programming—emphasizing that these considerations should increasing property prices and contributing to gentrification
not be addressed as an afterthought. The report further calls processes.224 Infrastructure investment to build urban
for “ensuring that those most affected by unsustainable resilience can concentrate wealth in enclaves for the benefit
‘business as usual’ approaches are heard, that their needs are of urban elites.225 Investment on adaptation projects in cities
taken into consideration, but also, and crucially, that their can also lead to evictions and displacement of the urban poor
knowledge of urban dynamics, and their capacity to partner and slum dwellers, resettlement on land exposed to risks, and
in solution finding and city-making, are taken seriously.”215 disruption of informal livelihoods.226 These insights align with
a long-standing understanding of how urban development
5.5.1. Inequalities and injustice in urban visions, especially formal economic and spatial plans developed
environmental decision-making through top-down and expert-led processes, often are poorly
Planning for greener urban futures requires foregrounding the aligned with the needs of low-income groups and even directly
experiences of vulnerable groups. Yet, many disadvantaged detrimental to their lives.227 The impacts of environmental
groups lack access to the social and political processes and policy on the most disadvantaged must be central to planning
institutions where environmental decision-making takes for green urban futures.
place. Decision-making processes must prioritize the needs
of disadvantaged populations because an urban environment Epistemic injustice occurs in urban planning when groups
that serves the needs of vulnerable people is also an urban and individuals in positions of formal and informal authority
environment that serves the needs of everyone. downplay and invalidate multiple forms of knowing and
living in the world.228 The concept is closely tied to histories
However, urban decision-making processes often exclude of colonization, as the occupation of lands and peoples
the urban poor, who tend to have fewer resources, time and also involved the subordination of their cosmologies and
connections than established stakeholders and urban elites, worldviews.229 In the context of environmental decision-
even when those processes are designed to be participatory.216 making in cities, the legacies of such domination manifest
Likewise, women are often excluded from the urban planning through hierarchies of knowledge, in which some forms of
process, partly because of gender norms concerning formal and knowing are consistently valued above others.
informal political leadership and weaker representation in formal
economies.217 Migrant workers are also routinely excluded from The marginalization of indigenous knowledge is one form of
decision-making processes, despite their exposure to socio- epistemic injustice in urban planning. On the one hand, there
environmental risks.218 Other forms of political exclusion include is growing recognition that indigenous knowledge can play a
discrimination based on race,219 ability,220sexuality221 and key role in building green cities by contributing to climate-
socio-political background (e.g. marginalization of refugees).222 responsive designs.230 Some indigenous communities are
All strategies for inclusion require careful consideration of how highly vulnerable to climate change impacts, particularly
exclusion has shaped experiences of citizenship and belonging those who live with and depend on local ecosystems.231
and how to facilitate political recognition, for example, through For instance, Indigenous knowledge of weather patterns
dialogue, the establishment of mutual respect and different can improve early warning systems to reduce flooding.232
forms of reparation.223 Participatory mapping, or other knowledge exchange
methods, can incorporate indigenous knowledge in urban
Sometimes environmental policies and programmes in risk assessments.233
cities lead to the entrenchment of existing inequalities and
vulnerabilities is a rights-based approach is not applied. For Incorporating indigenous knowledge into environmental
example, investment in green urban spaces can cause negative decision-making in cities is not straightforward. Indigenous
impacts on lower-income and marginalized communities by knowledge is frequently not recognized234or reduced to
narrowly defined policy domains (e.g. cultural heritage).235
There is a risk that indigenous knowledge is appropriated
Sometimes environmental when integrated into dominant knowledge systems without
policies and programmes in consent, through subordination within dominant knowledge
cities lead to the entrenchment systems, especially when disconnected from indigenous
of existing inequalities and values.236 Addressing epistemic injustice is not only a question
vulnerabilities is a rights-based of the revaluation of indigenous knowledge systems. It is
approach is not applied also a question of recognizing the occupation of indigenous
170
lands and locating claims to sovereignty, autonomy and land Urban initiatives to address epistemic injustice support the
ownership at the heart of urban planning.237 revaluation of identities and perspectives and the creation
of rights for socially or politically excluded people (e.g.
Addressing epistemic injustice also relates to building based on age, ethnicity, race, migratory status, sexuality, or
recognition for local and traditional forms of knowledge. gender).243 One relatively well-known example is the lack of
In Finland, local knowledge has contributed to protecting recognition of waste pickers,244 of which organizations like
ecosystems in urban planning processes, especially in preserving WIEGO work with such communities to build legitimacy and
nature of importance to residents.238 Traditional knowledge respect for their work.245
has played a role in biodiversity preservation in communities
in northeastern India, for instance, by maintaining community Gender-responsive planning includes strategies to address
gardens.239 In Bucharest, Romania, a participatory process gendered power relations and make women’s perspectives
compiled residents’ experiences and needs to develop bicycle central to urban planning.246 For example, projects to
infrastructure aligned with local preferences.240 rediscover and preserve cultural heritage help revalue
histories and cultural identities that have been marginalized
Taken together, indigenous knowledge, local knowledge and in a city. Cultural heritage protection can easily be co-opted
traditional knowledge provide alternatives to expert-led, by global narratives not aligned with local concerns247 or
technical-scientific planning, more recently captured by the even reinforce inequalities and oppression.248 Methods
concept of “subaltern knowledge.”241 Subaltern knowledge of “counter-mapping” and artistic production can provide
consists of situated, place-based forms of knowing excluded alternative means to redefine the feminist city.249
from dominant knowledge production and planning processes.
Subaltern knowledge can play a crucial role in environmental 5.5.2. Processes that include diverse perspectives
planning, for example, urban climate adaptation, especially in environmental decision-making
in producing socially just and responsive plans to the needs A green, sustainable urban future requires delivering
of diverse communities.242 environmental benefits across urban areas to reach every
segment of the urban population, especially those who
are most disadvantaged. Prioritizing the needs of the
most vulnerable means creating opportunities within local
Box 5.6: Post-COVID-19 resilience in informal planning processes to represent their views, a requirement
settlements already reflected in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable
Development. Planning needs to be approached as
A partnership between Cities Alliance and Shack/Slum a collaborative process capable of bringing together
Dwellers International (SDI) established to support diverse views and perspectives.250 A variety of formal
informal communities to build resilience in the context of organizational arrangements enable public participation
the COVID-19 pandemic provides insights on how to align in urban decision-making (Table 5.7). Many of these tools
recovery programmes with the priorities of the urban poor. are regularly used to incorporate participatory designs
First, the provision of sanitation is essential in communities into urban planning processes.
that lack access to basic washing facilities. Projects that
provide such services can play a role in aligning measures to The popularization of mobile applications has increased the
prevent virus transmission with ensuring long-term access. use of participatory tools in urban planning, including as a
Second, by strengthening safety nets, communities can means to collect environmental information, create local
reduce vulnerability to multiple kinds of shocks. For example, networks and facilitate public dialogues.251 Some models
savings groups can address collective concerns with pooled of public involvement and participation are also available in
resources. Third, communities can play a leading role in electronic formats, which in some contexts may increase
collecting data and raising awareness. Thus, they can draw opportunities for access. In China, for instance, such
attention to urgent needs, formulate collective priorities, build technologies have unleashed a stronger public voice on
channels of communication and negotiate capacity vis-à-vis environmental governance and sustainability issues relating
government authorities or donors. to urban areas.252 However, such advantages are context-
Source: SDI, 2021.
dependent and online communication may be most effective
in combination with face-to-face interaction.253
171
Table 5.7: Institutions and methods that facilitate participation in urban planning and management
Method Definition and benefits Examples
Citizen assemblies Decision-making bodies composed of lay citizens The Grandview-Woodland Citizens’ Assembly in Vancouver, Canada, involved
tasked with providing a recommendation on citizens in a broad range of urban planning decisions showing that an assembly
specific policy issues. Citizen assemblies are used can be a cost-effective way to realize citizen participation. A citizen food
in urban planning to engage ordinary residents and assembly organized in York, UK, functioned as a platform for debate and drew
create deliberation. attention to food insecurity.
Citizen panels or Created by a random selection of citizens to provide In Spain, citizen juries have increased citizen engagement in social problems;
citizen juries feedback on policy options or, in the case of juries, however, they represent limited participation in decision-making systems overall,
provided with information and expert input to make and their impact on policy may be limited.
a recommendation on a policy issue
Community councils Decision-making body through which residents In East Jerusalem, community groups perform many social functions, including
can influence neighbourhood decisions. They exist service provision (e.g. education and culture), community organization, and
in multiple forms (neighbourhood associations, political representation.
community enterprises, religious congregations),
which may be grassroots-led or supported by local
authorities. Community councils can provide access
to political processes for low-income groups, but in
operating outside of formal democratic institutions,
they may also be co-opted by dominant local
interests.
Participatory An approach to involve citizens in budget allocation Experiences from Porto Alegre and Belo Horizonte, Brazil, suggest that
budgeting that aims to increase citizen involvement, enhance participatory budgeting can increase access of previously excluded groups to
the accountability of decisions related to local decision-making, even though the poorest citizens remain excluded. In Porto
finance, and align planning processes with Alegre, participatory budgeting may have brought environmental benefits by
local needs. It can be used in relation to urban channelling financial resources towards sanitation and wastewater management,
environmental planning. public transport, waste collection and green space. Participatory budgeting in
Polish cities functioned as a source of creativity and innovation, with potential
benefits for environmental management. Participatory budgeting processes in
Medellín, Colombia, empowered women, including through enhanced leadership
skills and awareness of the political system. In cities in the US, participatory
budgeting has played a role in providing access to “traditionally marginalized
residents,” including “non-citizens, seniors, people of colour, and youth” (at the
same time, the time-consuming character of these processes is identified as a
drawback).
Participatory Participatory elements are central to broader Experiences from São Paulo have shown that participation in master planning
planning urban planning processes, such as master plans or and zoning is one way for groups to articulate priorities in planning processes.
zoning regulations. Participatory planning is also However, such participation favoured affluent citizens, and they are not
a strategy to address urgent issues in deprived guaranteed to deliver socially just outcomes. In Kenya, participatory planning
neighbourhoods or informal settlements. in informal settlements has been used to advance upgrading schemes and
identify residents’ priorities. However, in Egypt, participatory exercises in informal
settlements have struggled to address underlying drivers of marginalization, such
as land ownership and tenure, housing markets, and financing structures.
Consultative In urban planning, consultations can take a range Participatory methods in Malaysia’s urban planning processes include public
processes of formats, such as surveys, focus groups, public hearings, citizen forums, community or neighbourhood meetings, citizen surveys,
meetings, or citizen dialogues. These processes focus groups, and online public outreach. Some methods are more effective
can be implemented with varying numbers of in reaching larger numbers of citizens (e.g. citizen surveys). In contrast, other
participants, in comprehensive urban planning methods may be less representative but more effective in terms of generating
processes or sector-specific issues, and city-wide deliberation to address complex questions (e.g. public hearings or focus groups).
processes or neighbourhoods.
Note: Participatory mechanisms extend the definition of citizenship to everyone in a city regardless of their citizenship status, to avoid excluding vital participants such as migrants and refugees
Source: Lacelle-Webster and Warren, 2021; Beauvais, 2018; Doherty et al, 2020; Font and Blanco, 2007; Avn et al, 2021; Souza, 2001; Calisto Friant, 2019; Bernaciak et al, 2017; Park et al, 2018;
Hajdarowicz, 2018; Gilman, 2016; Nasca et al, 2019; Caldeira and Holston, 2015; Majale, 2008; Khalifa, 2015; Ismail and Said, 2015.
172
Box 5.7. Participatory approaches to future visioning and scenario planning
There is a growing interest in participatory visioning, forecasting and scenario planning methods, including approaches that build on
arts and creative exercises. This interest emerges from the need to radically rethink cities and urban futures to respond to social and
ecological crises.
Participatory scenario planning represents one approach to reimagine urban futures collectively. A scenario is “a coherent, internally
consistent, and plausible description of a potential future trajectory of a system.”254 Scenario planning assumes that the future is
uncertain; therefore, planning must consider multiple development trajectories with differential impacts on diverse social groups.255
Scenario planning combines quantitative methods (modelling, forecasting, analyses of large datasets) with qualitative strategies to
draw on experiential knowledge and imagine different futures.256 The technique is used in relation to natural resource management
(e.g. forests, wetlands, coral reefs), but also in the context of urban planning to address complex, long-term socio-ecological issues,
incorporate multiple knowledges and build shared understandings (examples of applications in urban or peri-urban planning include
cases in Germany, Kenya, South Africa, and the US).257
While the technical skills involved in forecasting and modelling can significantly influence professional stakeholders, the objective is
to engage diverse publics and interests.258 Public participation sessions, community workshops, and groups discussions are often
used throughout the process to ensure that various preferences are embedded in all stages of scenarios planning, employing tools
such as drawing, mental models, maps and creating storylines.259 A key outcome can be to create dialogue about the assumptions
and normative principles that underpin data-heavy modelling and projections. The exercise invites dialogue and reflection among
stakeholders with different concerns and ideological entry points (e.g. scientists and activists).260
At the same time, achieving participation that is both deep (in-depth involvement in scenario creation) and wide (participation of a
large, representative segment of an urban population) is often challenging.261 A comparative analysis of 23 participatory scenario
planning processes showed that the average number of participants was around 50 (rarely above 90), there was a lack of diversity
of participants, uneven power relations prevented participation on an equal basis, and the impact on policy-making was unclear
(monitoring and evaluation were often missing).262
There is also a new toolbox of collective visualization approaches available in urban planning, for example, through maps,263
gaming264 or public participation GIS tools (for public involvement in spatial planning).265 However, it is not clear whether such
collective visioning exercises necessarily lead to just and green cities. Creative engagement methods encounter similar forms of
challenges with participation as conventional participatory tools. They may, for example, focus on narrowly defined goals or preclude
in-depth engagement with the lives of urban residents.266
5.5.3. Foregrounding collaborative forms of urban in delivery by the state and built social capital among
governance communities.268
Collaborative modes of urban governance are today
commonplace in cities around the world. Co-production Co-production responds to the complexity of socio-
represents approaches to reimagine urban decision- environmental challenges, which always involve multiple
making from shared ownership in service delivery and problem frames and possible solutions. Co-production is
joint knowledge production in planning. In the context one way to bring together stakeholders, forms of knowledge,
of service delivery, co-production reflects the logic that and perspectives in response to this complexity.269 Also, it
municipal services are more effective and just when represents an opportunity for social movements to shape
both public actors and citizen groups are involved.267 For the terms and conditions of planning.270 Co-production as
example, in the delivery of water services in Lilongwe, a form of joint knowledge production in decision-making
Malawi, the co-production of services by a public can deliver various outcomes, such as local capacity
utility and civil society groups addressed inefficiencies building, drawing attention to environmental injustice and
173
increasing public communication and transparency.271 An 5.6. Building Global Urban Partnerships
example of co-production in urban environmental planning
is the formulation of the Barcelona climate plan, where The events of the last two years, raising concerns about
co-production opened up the use of new digital platforms climate change and the need to deal with the COVID-19
to involve citizens, but also raised practical challenges pandemic, have highlighted the need for a global partnership
(e.g. with regards to the timing of citizen input, unequal for sustainable development. This is a moment like no other
knowledge of participants, and confusion about the meaning to facilitate cooperation and global solidarities.278 Building
of co-production).272 partnerships requires an enabling environment capable of
sustaining long-term initiatives that recognize every actor,
Partnership-based approaches bring different social groups from youth activists to private-sector corporations, as part of
(authorities on multiple government levels, businesses, the solution.279
NGOs, community associations) into urban governance.
Urban partnerships exist in a range of organizational Climate politics is dominated by multilateralism, as the
forms, including more or less formal arrangements, such UNFCCC orchestrate efforts via voluntary agreements
as contractual arrangements between public and private and nationally determined contributions.280 However, the
actors for infrastructure and service delivery (i.e., public- impact of these efforts requires examining action on the
private partnerships, policy coalitions, advisory boards and ground and gaps between voluntary commitments and
panels, jointly managed programmes and international emission reductions needed to achieve the goals of the
networks.273 Partnerships represent a governance strategy Paris Agreement persist.281 Subnational actors not only can
that draws on the strengths of different social groups, provide additional emission reductions to bridge this gap282
including capacities for innovation and investment of the but also can influence global partnerships and advancing
private sector and abilities of community engagement and global development agendas. 283
responsiveness of social issues of civil society.
Transnational municipal networks (TMNs) facilitate the
Urban decision-making can also operate through different cooperation on climate change between local governments
forms of synergies with activist movements. The inclusion and other subnational institutions, including regions, and
of multiple perspectives in environmental decision- non-state actors that can stir up climate action at the local
making occurs through collaboration and contestation level.284 These networks have harnessed cities capacities to
and conflict, even agonism and strife.274 Activist groups create a new scene of global environmental governance. 285
play a crucial role in urban environmental politics, City networks cast local governments as mediators between
including introducing new issues into decision-making global concerns and place-based solutions.286
agendas, drawing attention to existing forms of injustice,
and participating in neighbourhood projects— as long TNMs are most often voluntary and non-hierarchical
illustrated by environmental justice movements.275 The organizations.287 While there is a variety of models of TMNs,
recent wave of global youth protests in climate politics such multinational membership is a shared characteristic.288
as Fridays for Future, Extinction Rebellion and the Sunrise Membership of transnational municipal networks is more
Movement highlights the importance of demonstrations in common in Europe and North America, but many have global
environmental politics. reach.289 TMNs support cities to create and implement
policy and planning, practices and voluntary standards that
The engagement of grassroots organizations, community support emission reductions and address vulnerabilities.290
groups and international environmental movements Gaining influence in international arenas is a key motivation
played a crucial role in adopting declarations of climate for cities to join TNMs.291
emergency by local authorities around the world.276 The
rising awareness of the complex interconnections between
multiple forms of social and environmental injustice, such
as the links between racism, environmental justice and state City networks cast local
violence,277 creates a renewed sense of urgency for activist governments as mediators
groups and social movements in urban environmental between global concerns
decision-making processes. and place-based solutions
174
Box 5.8: Transnational municipal networks in global environmental governance
The International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) is a pioneering TMN. It was created after hundreds of local
governments gathered at the Congress of Local Governments to a Sustainable Future organized by the United Nations Environmental
Programme (UNEP) in New York, in 1989 with 200 local governments from 43 countries. In its inception, ICLEI’s main objective was to
support local governments to transform effectively towards a greener economy.292
With currently over 1,750 local and regional governments in more than 100 countries, the organization helped cities embark on a
pathway towards low-emission, nature-based, resilient and circular development. ICLEI’s first programs emphasized participatory
governance and sustainable local development planning. The Cities for Climate Protection (CCP) campaign, promoted by ICLEI, was
the first to support cities in planning climate action to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, improve air quality and increase
sustainability and habitability. Over the past decade, UN-Habitat and ICLEI have supported local governments as they develop
comprehensive urban low-emission development strategies (Urban-LEDS) and climate action plans.
Another bottom up TNM is the C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group (C40), formed in 2005 when the London Mayor Ken Livingstone
brought together representatives of 18 megacities to cooperate to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The group has grown currently
including near 100 megacities in every region. C40 has increasingly focused on establishing concrete, measurable goals but its
members are also increasingly concerned about the potential of coupling emission reductions with ancillary benefits for resilience and
prosperity.
The European Union’s Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy (EU CoM) was launched in 2008 with the European Commission’s
support.293 As of January 2021, EU CoM has more than 10,600 signatories, mainly from the EU, as well as nearby countries like
Morocco and Turkey. The Covenant of Mayors also appears as a key actor in the Urban Agenda for the EU, launched with the Pact of
Amsterdam. Other top-down networks have emerged from the cooperation between multiple organizations at different levels. For
example, in 2014, the United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon and its Special Envoy on Cities and Climate Change, Michael
R. Bloomberg, in cooperation with C40 and ICLEI, launched the Compact of Mayors. The Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate and
Energy (GCoM) emerged with the combination of efforts in the Compact of Mayors and the EU Covenant of Mayors in 2016, becoming
the largest initiative of this kind, with more than 10,500 cities and local governments from 138 countries as of 2021.
Source: Castán Broto et al, 2022; Urban LEDs Project (https://urban-leds.org/)
5.7. Concluding Remarks and Lessons for inform urban planning. A key lesson is that scenario
Policy planning requires input from multiple actors and that
forecasting techniques alone are not sufficient to deliver
This chapter engages with the potential to deliver green an urban transition to sustainability.
urban futures. It highlights some aspects of the current state
of climate action: Third, in the post-pandemic context, there are increasing
fears that we are losing the window of opportunity
First, delivering green urban futures is a massive to catalyze a green urban transition through the
challenge of global proportions, and so far, our collective deployment of recovery funds.
impact on global average temperatures has been limited.
A more significant effort is needed to turn around the Four, inclusive planning processes must recognize
unsustainable pathways that contemporary cities and multiple forms of knowledge valuable to planning and
urban areas follow. recognize the need to deliver equity and justice. In the
case of informal settlement dwellers and impoverished
Second, there is mounting evidence about future populations, this means recognizing all urban dwellers
scenarios’ development and how future thinking can not as passive victims of an urbanization process but
175
as active makers of urban futures that must be given a Prepare to learn from both transnational experiences
range of arenas to make their voice heard. of climate and biodiversity action and place-based
initiatives.
The following policy lessons may contribute to sustainable
urban futures: Build capacities to enable change at scale.
Invest in participatory methods for scenario planning Experiences in energy management, transport, risk
and combine participatory planning techniques with management and nature-based solutions demonstrate the
forecasting techniques. potential of people-oriented forms of planning.
Prioritize inclusion and the needs of the most vulnerable

in the delivery of green urban futures.
176
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212. Albert et al, 2019; Almenar et 231. Hooli, 2016. and Kaza, 2015; Chakraborty, 286. Fünfgeld, 2015.
al, 2021. 232. Abudu Kasei et al, 2019. 2011. 287. Rashidi and Patt, 2018.
213. Shi et al, 2016. 233. Robinson et al, 2016. 258. Zapata and Kaza, 2015. 288. Busch et al, 2018.
214. Ziervogel, 2019; Henrique and 234. Anyumba and Sirayi, 2021. 259. Oteros-Rozas et al, 2015. 289. Bansard et al, 2017.
Tschakert, 2020. 235. Porter and Barry, 2015. 260. Freeth and Drimie, 2016. 290. Lin, 2018; Gesing, 2018.
215. UNEP and UN-Habitat, 2021. 236. West, 2019; Janke and Sentina, 261. Zapata and Kaza, 2015. 291. Domorenok et al, 2020.
216. Anguelovski et al, 2016; Olazabal 2018; Ford et al, 2016 262. Oteros-Rozas et al, 2015. 292. Rashidi and Patt, 2018.
et al, 2021; Caldeira and Holston, 237. Dorries et al, 2019. 263. Møller et al, 2019. 293. Domorenok et al, 2020; Reckien et
2015. 238. Yli-Pelkonen and Kohl, 2005. 264. Billger et al, 2017. al, 2018; Melica et al, 2018.
217. Kinyanjui, 2014; Chant, 2013; 239. Singh et al, 2010. 265. Kahila-Tani et al, 2016.
Williams et al, 2015; Kivoi, 2014. 240. Niță et al, 2018. 266. John et al, 2015.
218. Chu and Michael, 2019; Li and 241. Olazabal et al, 2021; Kothari, 2002. 267. Mitlin and Bartlett, 2018.
Rose, 2017. 242. Olazabal et al, 2021. 268. Adams and Boateng, 2018.
219. Tretter, 2016. 243. Fincher and Iveson, 2008. 269. Perry et al, 2018.
220. Bell, 2019, Stafford, 2020. 244. Onyanta, 2016; Michael et al, 270. Watson, 2014.
221. Irazábal and Huerta, 2016. 2019. 271. Perry and Atherton, 2017.
222. Allen and Slotterback, 2021; 245. Dias, 2016. 272. Satorras et al, 2020.
Seethaler-Wari, 2018. 246. Ortiz Escalante and Gutiérrez 273. Harman, Taylor and Lane, 2015.
223. Castán Broto et al, 2021. Valdivia, 2015; Huning, 2020; 274. Pløger, 2004
224. Anguelovski, 2016; Anguelovski et Beebeejaun, 2017. 275. Pearsall and Anguelovski, 2016,
al, 2019; Gould and Lewis, 2016. 247. Fredholm, 2015. Carter, 2016
225. Bigger and Webber, 2021; Long 248. Weiss, 2014. 276. Ruiz-Campillo, Castán Broto and
and Rice, 2019. 249. Perry et al, 2021. Westman, 2021
226. Anguelovski et al, 2016; Warner 250. Healey, 1997. 277. Pellow, 2016, Pulido, 2020
and Wiegel, 2021. 251. Ertiö, 2015. 278. Gornitza et al, 2020.
178
Chapter 6:
Urban Planning for the
Future of Cities
179
Quick facts
1. While there was a significant drop in climate emissions during COVID-19 lockdowns, the
numbers are rapidly increasing towards pre-COVID levels upon easing of public health
restrictions.
2. Current urban planning approaches have achieved limited success in reducing urban
inequality and achieving social inclusion, a trend that may persist in the future without
appropriate intervention.
3. Indoor and outdoor spaces need redesigning or retrofitting to be more flexible and resilient
to shocks, disruptions or pandemics looking into the future.
4. Compact cities are resilient to pandemics and a wide range of other shocks and threats.
5. Cities are strongly linked to their hinterlands; therefore, integrating urban-rural linkages in
future urban planning approaches is key for the resilience of cities.
Policy points
1. Post-COVID recovery programmes should not only focus on economic recovery but also on
social inclusion and climate action.
2. The importance of compact development, managed density and prevention of overcrowding

in city resilience should be re-emphasized in view of rising concerns over overcrowding in
cities during pandemics.
3. Cities should implement best practices and policy tools such as sustainable neighbourhood
planning, the 15-minute city concept and sustainable urban mobility plans (SUMPs) that
have been effective in making cities more resilient.
4. Safe, affordable, and reliable public transport systems are sustainable and should be
integrated with active mobility.
5. There is an urgent need to focus on strengthening integrated urban and territorial planning
approaches that consider interactions between urban, peri-urban and rural areas.
180
While trends project that rates of urbanization will increase in pointed out in recent UN-Habitat reports, the outcomes of
many parts of the world in the coming decades, unexpected development processes guided by those models and paradigms
events like the COVID-19 pandemic or the conflict in Ukraine do not align with the principles of social, economic, and
also create unpredictability along that trajectory.1 As such, environmental sustainability.5 As a result, while cities have
preparing for multiple futures that still lead to sustainable traditionally been centres of innovation and could be part
and resilient cities able to accommodate rapid urban of the solution to global challenges such as climate change,
population growth is a major task that lies ahead of urban existing urban planning and development models seem to be
planners and decision-makers. How existing and new cities inadequate for building sustainable and resilient cities.
will be developed to accommodate nearly 2.5 billion new
inhabitants will have major implications for the future of our The pandemic has provided an opportunity to reflect on
planet and for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. urban planning and design principles and ideas that have
Currently, cities are responsible for more than 70 per cent been practised over the past several decades. This reflection
of global energy consumption and associated greenhouse gas is essential to understand what transformations are needed
emissions indicating their significance in achieving climate to streamline sustainability transitions and improve resilience
change mitigation targets.2 to future pandemics and other stressors looming over cities
such as climate change. The pandemic has questioned the
As Chapter 5 highlighted, cities will also be at the forefront fundamental principles of contemporary urban planning
of climate change adaptation efforts in the coming decades. and has highlighted social, economic, environmental, and
Additionally, cities are exposed to a wide range of natural institutional problems that cities have been facing for
disasters such as floods, extreme heat and sea-level rise. decades in a new light. Further, it has shown that societies
For instance, results of a recent report show that about 20 can act quickly and cities can change drastically if needed.
per cent of urban residents worldwide would be exposed
to a 100-year flood, and more than 600 cities are likely to The period from 2020–2022 is not the first time that
be completely inundated by a 100-year flood.3 As the urban pandemics have hit cities. Public health crises have always
population in low-lying coastal areas grows, conditions may played a significant role in the advancement of urban
worsen in the coming decades if cities fail to plan resiliently. planning and policy as evidenced by events such as the 1858
Alongside these challenges, cities are also struggling to Great Stink of London that resulted in sewer management,
overcome major inequality issues and provision of equitable or the December 1952 smoke-laden fog that was the basis
access to services and resources to all urban residents. for the introduction and enactment of the 1956 Clean Air
Act.6 Indeed, it can be argued that previous epidemics
The COVID-19 global pandemic emerged amidst these and pandemics such as tuberculosis and the Spanish Flu
challenges and hit many cities hard, underscoring issues prompted the birth of modern urbanism. Hygienic measures
related to public health, urban planning and design, and and non-pharmaceutical interventions such as wastewater
municipal governance. The public health crisis revealed treatment, waste management, sewage control, indoor air
urban vulnerabilities, such as environmental pollution, deep circulation and lighting, and building height-to-width ratio
have emerged in response to such public health threats.7
As the urban population in While COVID-19 is not yet endemic and many aspects of the
low-lying coastal areas grows, disease are still being explored, a lot of research on cities and
conditions may worsen in the the pandemic has been published since early 2020.8 Now is
coming decades if cities fail to the time to reflect on the impacts of COVID-19 on cities to
plan resiliently understand their inherent vulnerabilities and draw lessons
social inequalities, inadequate and inequitable access to for building back in a better and more resilient way that
urban services, lack of integrated urban management, limited ensures better coping, absorption and recovery capacities
availability of public transportation infrastructure, and limited when confronted with future shocks. The pandemic has led
access to open and green spaces.4 That many cities have to many changes to previously normal ways of living. While
struggled to appropriately plan, prepare for and manage the it is too early to say whether such changes are temporary
impacts of the pandemic is a clear indication of the inadequacy or permanent, it can be argued that the pandemic will have
of current models and paradigms of urban planning and design significant implications for urban life and the way cities will
that guide urban development in many parts of the world. As be developed and managed in the future. Indeed, recent
181
Tyumen region, Russia. Aerial view of the residential area of the

suburb of Nizhnevartovsk during the flood of 2015. © Vladimir
Melnikov/Shutterstock
182
trends such as the accelerating uptake of smart solutions and and the importance of multi-level and integrated planning
technologies,9 rapid adoption of teleworking, and flight from approaches that account for dynamic interactions across
high-density inner-city neighbourhoods attests that there is urban-rural interfaces. While there is a major emphasis
a prospect for some major changes in the post-COVID era.10 on the pandemic, issues discussed in the chapter are not
exclusive to it. Rather, other important challenges facing
The critical role of cities in dealing with global challenges and cities are also discussed, such as climate change. Additionally,
the need to revisit urban planning, design and management the chapter avoids providing case-specific recommendations
were already well-recognized before the pandemic. Since the since context is important, and what can work in a specific
landmark year of 2007, when the world’s urban population city may not work elsewhere. Instead, the general ideas and
exceeded the rural population for the first time, attention principles discussed here will provide a basis for context-
to cities has been growing steadily. This trend is manifested specific local actions that will enable cities to enhance their
by the allocation of a separate chapter to cities and human resilience to future pandemics and make progress towards
settlements in the research of the Intergovernmental Panel achieving the SDGs.
on Climate Change since the Fifth Assessment Report
in 2014 and agreements on several major international
policy frameworks such as the New Urban Agenda, 2030 6.1. Urban Planning for Sustainable and
Agenda for Sustainable Development, Sendai Framework for Inclusive Recovery
Disaster Risk Reduction, Addis Ababa Action Agenda, and
Paris Agreement on Climate Change, which all have specific Modern urban planning has traditionally been aligned with
relevancy to cities and their future. Amidst such initiatives state authority and highly influenced by market forces.
and efforts to guide future urban planning and development, Therefore, it has tended to favour economic growth and
the pandemic has further highlighted the unsustainable the needs of middle- and high-income people while largely
current trajectories of urban growth and development and failing to be socially inclusive and protect the environment.
added a sense of urgency on the need to take concerted As a result, many cities are locked into undesirable and
actions across different scales and streamline the global unsustainable models. While market forces are still dominant,
urban transition towards more sustainable futures. some paradigm shifts towards more inclusive and sustainable
urban development have been made in the past several
The UN-Habitat reports World Cities Report 2020 and Cities years. However, urbanization in some developing countries
and Pandemics: Towards a More Just, Green and Healthy has been so rapid that urban planning and infrastructure
Future highlight how well-planned, managed and financed have not developed sufficiently to meet the demands of
cities can create value. That value, in turn, can be harnessed all urban residents in a sustainable and timely manner.
for sustainable urban futures and provide the basis for local Additionally, some countries lack the financial means to
and regional actions that can be taken to facilitate a better support sustainable infrastructure development for all.
and more sustainable recovery from the pandemic.
The COVID-19 pandemic is a window of opportunity to
evolve revisiting current urban planning paradigms and
identifying shortcomings and areas that need improvement
The critical role of cities in dealing with global to inform a more green and inclusive recovery.11
challenges and the need to revisit urban
planning, design and management were already 6.1.1. Planning a decarbonized recovery
well-recognized before the pandemic As arguments on the need for deep decarbonization continue
to gain ascendancy, temporary dips in pollution during
This chapter builds on these efforts by focusing on some the early phase of the pandemic illustrate the beneficial
major planning-related issues that emanate from the recent outcomes of greening transportation systems and cleaning
crisis, namely the need for green, inclusive and sustainable up heavy industries as discussed in detail in Chapter 5.12
recovery; retrofitting urban infrastructure to allow for safe While lockdowns halted urban travel patterns abruptly for
social distancing when necessary; measures to promote knowledge workers, the post-pandemic trend toward a hybrid
the compact city; the need for sustainable neighbourhood model where office workers no longer come in five days per
planning and design; the significance of safe, affordable week has the potential to reduce peak travel demand and
and reliable public transportation systems for the future; pollution. Furthermore, as will be further discussed later
183
in this chapter, investment in and promotion of public and cities that imposed lockdowns given the dominance of
active transportation systems especially in cities should road transportation and associated emissions in urban areas
be prioritized. Such actions will enhance urban resilience (Figure 6.1).14
to future adverse events and contribute to climate change
adaptation and mitigation in cities.13 However, recent reports on the growth rate of carbon
dioxide emissions post-lockdowns do not indicate an ongoing
In response to the pandemic, many governments worldwide green recovery. As countries eased mobility and activity
imposed lockdowns and mobility restrictions, the result of restrictions and return to pre-pandemic normal emissions
which were major improvements in air and water quality. increased rapidly (Figure 6.3, Figure 6.2 and Box 6.1) and
Many cities around the world, especially those in developing even reached a record high level in 2021.15 Either recovery
countries such as China and India, reported unprecedented packages are not prioritizing green growth, or the pandemic
reductions in the level of airborne pollutants such as PM2.5, has caused delays in the implementation of some climate
PM10, CO2, NO2 and SO2. Declines were significant in action plans.
Figure 6.1: Reductions in NO2 concentrations over India following COVID-19 lockdowns
Source: European Space Agency, 2022.
184
Figure 6.2: Short-term comparison of PM2.5 levels in major cities before, during and after lockdown restrictions imposed by
governments at the beginning of the pandemic
180
Pre-lockdown (February-March 2020)
160 Peak-lockdown (April- May 2020)
Post-lockdown (June- July 2020)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Hong Kong Rome Hamburg Singapore London Paris Brisbane Delhi Beijing Los Melbourne Madrid Sydney Cape Town New York
Angeles
Figure 6.3: Temporary reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions during the first half of 2020 and rapid recovery in the
second half
Source: UNEP, 2020.
185
Box 6.1: Global emissions almost back to pre-pandemic levels after unprecedented drop in 2020
Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels dropped by 5.4 per cent in 2020, compared to the previous year. But they are set to
increase by about 4.9 per cent above 2020 levels in 2021, reaching 36.4 billion tonnes. The fast growth in emissions matches
the corresponding large increase in energy demand as the global economy opens, with the help of US$17.2 trillion in economic
stimulus packages around the world. CO2 emissions from all fossil fuel types (coal, oil and natural gas) grew in 2021, with
emissions from coal and natural gas set to grow more in 2021 than they fell in 2020. Emissions from global coal use were
declining before the pandemic hit in early 2020 but they surged back in 2021. Emissions from global gas use have returned to the
rising trend seen before the pandemic. CO2 emissions from global oil use remain well below pre-pandemic levels but are expected
to increase in the coming years as road transport and aviation recover from COVID-related restrictions.
Source: Canadell et al., 2021.
Based on such observations, experts working at the nexus

of science and public policy urge leaders at all levels to Planning for transition away from automobile-
align pandemic recovery plans and programmes with global, oriented models with single land uses towards
national and local climate action plans in order to minimize more pedestrian-oriented, mixed-use, diverse
climate risks and provide co-benefits for health and equity.16 and compact city plans will create more flexible
One important lesson from the pandemic is that cities that and adaptive urban forms to respond to future
have taken early actions to contain the spread of COVID-19 pandemics
have been more successful in controlling outbreaks.17
Drawing a parallel between public health measures and
urban climate action, it can be argued that timely climate compact city plans will create more flexible and adaptive
policy at the city level is essential to reduce the future costs urban forms to respond to future pandemics.19
associated with climate change adaptation and mitigation in
cities and building resilience to pandemics.18 6.1.2 Planning a socially inclusive recovery
Major achievements were made in reducing the share
of people living in extreme poverty following the
Experts working at the nexus of science and implementation of the Millennium Development Goals.
public policy urge leaders at all levels to align However, the reduction rate slowed down to only about 1.8
pandemic recovery plans and programmes with per cent between 2015 and 2019. In 2020, the pandemic
global, national and local climate action plans exacerbated global extreme poverty for the first time in
more than 20 years due to a combination of factors such as
loss of employment, economic stagnation, and decreased
Cities and Pandemics: Towards a More Just, Green and remittance to low- and middle-income countries. This
Healthy Future provides city stakeholders with guidelines setback added about 120 million people to those living
for planned recovery towards sustainable cities. Cities are below the poverty line (Chapter 3). Furthermore, foreign
encouraged to build resilience to future shocks and stresses direct investment in developing countries dropped by 8 per
by investing in and transforming urban weak spots, both cent in 2020 compared with 2019.20 Considering these
systemic (such as car-based movement systems) and area- impacts, many cities in vulnerable developing countries
based (informal settlements, suburban and peri-urban areas). are likely to decide to prioritize economic growth.
Additionally, well-designed urban density, at a human scale Under such circumstances, international cooperation in
that includes adequate facilities and functions to balance providing financial support to facilitate inclusive recovery
long-term social, economic and environmental sustainability, is indispensable.
can enable a level of resilience to the impacts of pandemics
without compromising liveability. Planning for transition Previous pandemics have demonstrated that vulnerable
away from automobile-oriented models with single land uses groups such as ethnic minorities, the urban poor, women21
towards more pedestrian-oriented, mixed-use, diverse and and children are disproportionately affected, making it
186
difficult to contain the spread of infectious diseases in slum dwellers often have precarious livelihood conditions
cities.22 Despite this historical precedent, modern urban and cannot afford to stay at home during pandemics. In
planning has achieved limited success in ensuring equitable response to a growing volume of requests from both national
distribution of resources, and profound inequalities have and local governments to help them prepare for, prevent,
existed in cities for several decades. Most notably, close to respond to and recover from the COVID-19 pandemic in an
30 per cent of the world’s urban population lives in slums or equitable manner, UN-Habitat adopted a COVID-19 response
slum-like conditions.23 Compliance with social distancing and plan focusing on city-level and community responses to the
hygiene guidelines recommended for containing the spread crisis (Box 6.2). These responses seek to empower local
of the virus in such contexts is difficult, if not impossible. communities to harness local capacities in addressing their
immediate challenges as more long term interventions are
Overcrowded environments are not conducive to social planned by decision-making stakeholders.
distancing. For instance, the average per capita floor area
for 60 per cent of urban residents in India is about 6 square
metres.24 People living in slums are often cramped with limited Pandemics have demonstrated
or no access to clean water and sanitation. Consequently, slum that vulnerable groups are
dwellers face challenges in following hand-washing guidelines disproportionately affected, making
and contaminated water resources may also further increase it difficult to contain the spread of
the risk of pathogen spread. In addition to these issues, infectious diseases in cities
Box 6.2: UN-Habitat expands COVID-19 prevention in Kenya’s Mathare and Kibera informal settlements through
youth-led groups
Nearly 5,000 school children in two informal settlements in the Kenyan capital are better protected against COVID-19 as a result
of an UN-Habitat initiative to expand mask and recycling bins in those often-overlooked areas.
The three-week initiative in Mathare and Kibera informal settlements is in line with UN-Habitat’s commitment not only to upgrade
the quality of life in slums worldwide but also to ensure a more equitable distribution of resources to all citizens as a step toward
providing more sustainable urban development.
The Youth-led COVID-19 Emergency Response initiative, in partnership with local governments, comes under UN-Habitat
COVID-19 Response Plan adopted in April, 2020, which has as one of its main objectives as leveraging on experience, expertise
and partnerships to deliver localized solutions. UN-Habitat has an extensive network of youth partners built up over its 20 years
of programming with young people globally. Working with these partners on the ground, the organization brought together central
and local governments, youth, communities and United Nations agencies to make the COVID-19 response impactful, especially
with those in informal settlements and slums.
One key prevention method is masks. The most recent mask initiative facilitated the distribution of 6,577 surgical face masks
to 2,226 students in seven schools in Mathare and 8,730 masks to 2,500 students in five schools in Kibera, for a total of
15,307 masks distributed to 4,726 students. To limit the environmental impact of disposable masks and promote economic
empowerment among women, the elastic cords from the masks will be reused by women tailoring cooperatives. Along with the
masks, recycling bins were also distributed to each of the schools.
The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention say students benefit from in-person learning and recommends
universal indoor masking for all students.
Source: UN-Habitat, 2022b.
187
The nature of infectious diseases is such that no one is green, open and public spaces has been observed in many
safe until everyone is safe. Consequently, reducing urban cities, actions centred on increasing the share of such spaces
inequalities should be a priority in the post-COVID era. should not negatively impact those who are employed in the
Equitable access to urban infrastructure and services, informal sector and are reliant on public spaces for their
especially healthcare, has been an important determining livelihood. It is estimated that over 2 billion people across the
factor in the ability of cities to respond to the pandemic globe are employed in the informal sector, and these people
effectively.25 Post-COVID recovery should be equitable are the main users of streets and public spaces in developing
and inclusive while prioritizing the needs of vulnerable and countries contributing to the liveability and vibrancy of cities.28
marginalized groups, including ethnic minorities, urban In Mexico, for instance, street vendors are an integral part
poor, immigrants, refugees, women26, children and those of many cities, and more than 50 per cent of the working
who are precariously employed or housed. population is involved in informal economic activities.
Response measures should take the rights of such groups into
To seize the pandemic as an opportunity to reform our cities account.29
and build back better, it is essential to carefully assess the
impacts on marginalized groups and ensure that they are Measures aimed at general economic recovery should not
engaged in current and future planning processes. Ensuring the worsen the living conditions of vulnerable groups. For example,
engagement of diverse social groups in the planning process is recovery from the 2008 global financial crisis resulted in
necessary to develop inclusive and equitable plans that respect unprecedented growth in international urban tourism and
led to the displacement of low-income residents from central
neighbourhoods to peripheral urban areas as property owners
The engagement of diverse social groups in converted housing into short-term holiday rentals. Housing
the planning process is necessary to develop advocates fear that returning to pre-pandemic patterns will
inclusive and equitable plans result in gentrification by displacing the original residents that
can no longer afford higher rents and further exacerbate the
the needs and demands of different groups and facilitate existing socio-economic and spatial inequalities in cities.30
equitable access to urban services and amenities such as However, some municipal authorities took advantage of the
open spaces and health infrastructure. This approach, in turn, pandemic pause in short-term rentals to plan for a better-
could contribute to better resilience against future threats.27 regulated, more equitable future (Box 6.3).
Given the complexity of urban issues, post-pandemic recovery
measures aimed at improving the accessibility of certain
social groups to urban services should not undermine the Measures aimed at general economic recovery
accessibility of other groups. For instance, while as will be should not worsen the living conditions of
discussed in the next section, the need for better access to vulnerable groups
Box 6.3: Regulating the short-term rental market
During a gloomy winter in a French capital subdued by the COVID-19 pandemic and missing its usual throngs of visitors, 30
Parisians logged on to a videoconferencing platform over 10 sessions to discuss a once contentious issue: short-term lets. Nearly
six months before France would reopen to international tourists, the Citizens Conference on Furnished Tourism Accommodation
had gathered to hear a range of perspectives and make a recommendation on one difficult question: to improve access to housing,
should regulations on furnished tourism accommodation be stricter? And if so, how?
The Mayor of Paris called the public meeting because her administration had highlighted the growth in short-term lets as a culprit in
the city’s housing crunch. “Paris has been confronted for several years now with the frenetic development of these tourist rentals,”
said the deputy mayor for housing. “This development has come at the detriment of housing, that is to say we’ve seen housing
turned into clandestine hotels.”
188
These debates have been playing out in cities across a world that experienced a rapid rise in short-term lets during the 2010s,
followed by a severe crash during the COVID-19 pandemic and an uncertain future as travel and tourism make an unsteady return.
Tourism dollars are sorely missed where local authorities are grappling with ailing municipal coffers, but the spectre of a worsening
housing shortage looms large. “Local governments need to find a middle ground between maintaining their cities’ attractiveness
to visitors while tackling housing inequalities, protecting long-term residential uses and quality of life,” says a University College of
London’s Professor and lead author of a new study on European short-term lets published by the Property Research Trust.
The report analysed 12 European cities and found that in 2019, professional landlords (defined as renting a property for more than
60 nights a year) commanded the lion’s share of Airbnb listings in several popular destinations like Prague, Lisbon, and Rome. In the
latter two, over 80 per cent of listings appeared to consist of professional landlords and in all four of these European destinations,
some two-thirds of listings could be traced to hosts with multiple properties on the platform.
Catching up has been a challenge for cities caught unawares by sophisticated technology platforms that have rapidly scaled up
the number of short-term let listings before regulatory measures like licenses, taxes, and nightly limits have been put in place.
Some cities have adopted a zone approach, like Montréal, Canada, which pushes short-term lets off quiet residential streets and
onto arterial boulevards. Some cities have taken a tougher approach, with Barcelona, Spain, becoming the first major city in Europe
to ban private room short-term rentals altogether.
Source: Scruggs, 2021.
for multi-purpose and flexible spaces that can adapt to

Urban outmigration may intensify patterns of new situation, which is a major shift from traditional
gentrification outside central cities and further urban planning practices like single-use zoning that
exacerbate housing and wealth inequalities often overlook flexibility and adaptability. This section is
across the urban-rural continuum focused on issues related to the retrofitting of indoor and
outdoor spaces to allow for social distancing, a trend that
Avoiding gentrification is essential to ensure that all urban has softened in 2022 but that may have lasting effects for
dwellers’ right to the city is respected, as elaborated31 in commercial design. However, it should be mentioned that
Chapter 8. This aspiration can be achieved by adopting planning to retrofit urban infrastructure is also needed
integrated planning mechanisms that address urban issues to futureproof against other adverse events like climate
through systemic approaches, such as policies requiring the change impacts, seismic risks and terrorist attacks.33
social function of property. Similarly, based on urban exodus Furthermore, as insufficient indoor and outdoor spaces have
trends observed in contexts as diverse as Hyderabad, India32, been identified as risk factors to human distress during
and London, in the absence of measures to support existing the pandemic, retrofitting indoor and outdoor spaces has
residents of suburban and rural areas, urban outmigration also been linked to urban dwellers’ health and well-being
may intensify patterns of gentrification outside central cities demands34.
and further exacerbate housing and wealth inequalities
across the urban-rural continuum. 6.2.1. Retrofitting indoor spaces
Architects, interior designers, and facility maintenance
managers have rushed to retrofit indoor spaces since 2020
6.2. Retrofitting Urban Spaces for Safe both to improve ventilation as well as to accommodate
Social Distancing changing work and lifestyle patterns that have led many
urban dwellers to spend more time at home. Indoor
The pandemic and associated guidelines for safe social residential environments are no longer only spaces for living,
distancing have transformed the way people perceive the but also must accommodate other needs related to work
built environment, especially building interiors. COVID-19 and leisure. This sudden shift revealed the lack of versatility
has prompted a rethinking of the human relationship to and flexibility of modern building design and indicated that
green, open and public spaces. It has increased the demand changes in the design layout of buildings may be necessary35.
189
Consequently, property analysts believe there will likely During the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, many temporary
be long-term demand for adaptable residential designs measures were taken to reduce contagion risk in indoor
that can accommodate the changing needs of citizens environments, such as separating upward and downward
during emergencies such as pandemics (e.g. garages that staircases, making shop aisles one way, limiting indoor occupancy
can be turned into office space). This design preference and reducing elevator passenger loads. As the pandemic
will increase demand for suburban and peripheral housing recedes, these regulatory responses are likely to recede, if they
stock with gardens, garages and off-street parking.36 have not already, as they reduce the efficiency of indoor spaces.
Such consumer demand away from dense, multifamily Other measures are more capital-intensive and thus will likely
housing will cause affordability issues, and worsen economic remain once installed, such as ventilation system upgrades,
inequalities given the difficulties prompted by the pandemic. body temperature scanners and anti-microbial finishings.40
As a result, wealth inequalities in society may further deepen However, these measures are costly and may not be affordable
as some will own multiple homes while others will find it to all social groups.
challenging to own or rent a single home.37
The pandemic is also likely to transform the configuration of
Accordingly, developing policies and strategies to provide offices (Figure 6.4) and commercial spaces such as shopping
affordable housing should be further prioritized to mitigate malls. Regarding office spaces, measures mentioned above to
housing inequality and its potential associated risks avoid overcrowded indoor environments can be combined
for public health. In this regard, lessons can be learned with further adoption and promotion of teleworking to allow
from successful examples such as the The Million Homes for better social distancing and more economically feasible
Programme implemented in Sweden in the post-war era.38 ventilation of indoor working environments. Survey results
Another risk is that increased interest in suburban and rural show that support for remote work has increased among both
areas, with less population density and more flexible housing employers and employees after the pandemic. Teleworking
that can accommodate the need for working from home, also helps reduce transport-related energy consumption and
may lead to new waves of suburban urban development.39 associated GHG emissions and could facilitate social benefits
As will be discussed later in this chapter, teleworking or such as job satisfaction and better work-life balance.41
remote work may undermine efforts to promote compact Additionally, reducing office size could provide opportunities
cities. for re-allocating the freed spaces to other purposes such
as green and open spaces. However, telework should be
combined with in-person work to maintain the innovation
Affordable housing should be further prioritized advantage inherent in cities and sustain the economies
to mitigate housing inequality and its potential of central business districts, which provide jobs to small
associated risks for public health business owners and low-wage workers.
People waiting for a city bus as they are maintaining social distancing, Assam, India. © Talukdar David/Shutterstock
190
Figure 6.4: Guidelines for a safe return to the office during COVID-19
Physical Distance Analysis- Access to workstations • Maintaining a 6ft. distance when

walking in between back to back
workstations is a challenge.
6 ft. radius
Occupy • Maintaining a 6ft. distance when
6 ft. radius circle is placed at a practical stationary walking along a corridor is a
Unavailable
work position (chair location will vary on plans) challenge.
# Room limit
• Being aware of your surroundings
6ft. guide Diagrams shown are reference examples. Analysis
is imperative in these situations.
of your specific furniture may differ.
Working in between stations
Walking along the corridor
Source: Harrouk, 2020
Over the past few decades, large indoor shopping malls and support for business improvement associations, where enabling
hypermarkets have become common in many cities. The legislation allows. Neighbourhood retail faces headwinds from
temporary disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic has shuttered online shopping, which saps urban vitality and contributes to
some malls, although as the pandemic recedes shoppers congestion through increased delivery vehicles. New property
have returned to these large indoor spaces. Moreover, these uses like ghost kitchens, which prepare meals for delivery but
facilities are typically owned by well-capitalized property firms do not drive foot traffic, should be regulated closely so that they
that have adequate balance sheets to withstand a downturn. do not occupy prime commercial real estate.
However, the pandemic-era consumer preference for outdoor
spaces has helped the fortunes of open-air shopping centres 6.2.2. Retrofitting outdoor spaces (green, open and
and traditional high streets and commercial corridors.42 public)
Neighbourhood-oriented mixed-use development can offer As evidenced by SDG 11, the need for adequate provision
opportunities for the revival of such shops. Evidence based and universal access to safe green, open and public spaces
on perception surveys in Istanbul shows that due to concerns was already recognized before the pandemic. The New Urban
over the effectiveness of artificial ventilation in shopping malls, Agenda highlights the profound roles that multi-functional
some customers are likely to avoid such privately-owned public green, open and public spaces such as streets, pedestrian
spaces in the future and shift to traditional shopping streets.43 spaces, cycling networks, squares, parks and green spaces
This trend presents an opportunity to revive neighbourhood can play in driving economic development and contributing
shopping streets as welcoming public spaces that contribute to human health and well-being. The pandemic brought
to local economies, facilitate social interactions, cultivate about more desire for green, open and public spaces, which
a sense of community, encourage walking and cycling, and is likely to change the distribution patterns of such spaces
reduce travel demand and associated GHG emissions.44 in the coming years. Many argue that the pandemic will
have significant implications for the way urban residents will
Urban planners should support neighbourhood shopping see and use green, open and public spaces in the future.45
districts with easier permitting, permission to use sidewalks and This preference is likely to increase the demand for such
streets to extend storefronts, street beautification efforts and spaces, leading to urban form and landscape changes.
191
has increased interest in active transportation like cycling and

New Urban Agenda highlights the profound walking. This change offers an unprecedented opportunity to
roles that multi-functional green, open and restructure cities in such a way that more space is devoted to
public spaces can play in driving economic developing cycling and pedestrian infrastructure. It will allow
development and contributing to human health better opportunities for compliance with social distancing
and well-being during future respiratory pandemics and provide spaces
for further social activities and social interaction that could
Effective strategies to ensure continuous use of parks and open strengthen resilience. Further, it will have co-benefits for
spaces by citizens are critical for maintaining their mental and health and climate change mitigation.
physical health. Outdoor physical activity is essential for healthy
child development, avoiding cardiovascular and respiratory Following the increased interest in active transportation,
diseases, reducing obesity rates and building children’s social the global movement to reconfigure streets making them
and emotional skills. During lockdowns many people were more pedestrian- and cyclist-friendly has gained considerable
alienated from their work and leisure places as well as from momentum (Box 6.4).48 More cities should seize this
other people, which heightened stress and anxiety among opportunity to start transforming urban environment, including
urban residents. Results from a survey completed by people streets. and open and public spaces. Indeed, it should be
from nine countries show that contact with nature and green acknowledged that streets should not just be allocated to cars
spaces is essential for overcoming depression and anxiety and need to be reconfigured in a people-centred manner. In
during lockdown periods.46 so doing, careful attention to the principles of resilient urban
Despite this benefit, in many cities around the world, use of

such spaces was largely restricted during the pandemic. Better During lockdowns many people were alienated
design measures, allocating more space to parks and improving from their work and leisure places as well as
accessibility are critical to avoid similar conditions in the future.47 from other people, which heightened stress and
As will be further discussed later in this chapter, the pandemic anxiety among urban residents
Street re-allocation to ensure social distancing in London

Source: (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/coronavirus-uk-social-distancing-set-to-transform-london-sidewalks.html)
192
Box 6.4: Scaling up safe street designs in Addis Ababa
Like many low-and middle-income countries, Ethiopia is confronted with a very high road-related fatality rate, with 26.7 road deaths
per 100,000 inhabitants recorded each year, according to WHO data. In comparison, high-income countries have an average of 8.3 road
traffic deaths per 100,000 people. Death rates from traffic crashes are higher in Africa than anywhere else.
In Addis Ababa, pedestrians and cyclists represent more than half of road users and about 80% of all road victims. Building safe and
inclusive walking and cycling infrastructure is crucial to reduce road injuries and mortality.
Since May 2019, UN-Habitat, supported by the United Nations Road Safety Fund and in partnership with the Institute for
Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP), the Ethiopian Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Urban Development and
Construction, the Federal Transport Authority and the Addis Ababa Transport Bureau, with support from other national, international
and local agencies, have partnered on the Scaling Up Safe Street Designs in Ethiopia project to help the authorities tackle this
key road safety challenge.
The project has now reached its completion, delivering results and impact which have exceeded all its initial goals. The project provided
technical support to local and national government officials in their ongoing efforts to design, install and upgrade footpaths and bicycle
lanes and corridors, supported by the harmonization of street design guidelines. Based on this expertise, the project partners provided
technical review assistance to the design of ongoing infrastructure projects, and promoted and co-organized street-level activities to
raise awareness around the importance of walking and cycling for all, and road safety issues.
The project resulted in the adoption of a Non-Motorized Transport Strategy for Ethiopia and Addis Ababa, and a five-year
implementation plan for 69 cities and towns with harmonized street design guidelines guiding investments in safer facilities for
walking and cycling. The Strategy emphasizes the need to consider all residents in the plans and budgets, including women, children,
and persons with disabilities.
Source: UNECE, 2021b.
Integrating green infrastructure into the design of streets

The global movement to reconfigure streets and other public spaces is an effective way to enhance their
making them more pedestrian- and cyclist- flexibility and multi-functionality. Indeed, creating networks
friendly has gained considerable momentum of green areas and open spaces will allow better responses
to future pandemics while also providing co-benefits like
form should be made to ensure designing open and public climate change adaptation and ecological restoration.
spaces in a redundant, multi-functional, and flexible manner Networks of blue and green infrastructure can also buffer and
that allows adaptability to various types of adverse events. regulate interactions between humans and wildlife, reducing
the risk of zoonotic diseases.51 But planning for this type
Ample provision of open and public spaces increases urban of infrastructure requires a change from business-as-usual
flexibility and resilience. Such spaces can be converted into practices, which historically defer to hard infrastructure in
sites for artistic activities, outdoor dining, temporary shelter or order to solve urban development challenges. Major barriers
medical emergency sites during adverse events.49 For instance, are limited funding and expertise, maintenance costs, and
during the recent pandemic large-scale open and public inadequate support from local governments.
spaces were converted into makeshift hospitals in Wuhan,
China. Open and public spaces have also been used for similar To ensure that green infrastructure networks can contribute
purposes in other countries like Japan. Such practices and to transformative solutions for better urban futures, these
other measures based on the principles of tactical urbanism barriers should be overcome by, among other things, better
can be used to enhance the resilience of urban form.50 engagement of different stakeholders for co-design and
193
Figure 6.5: Spatial strategies for restaurants in response to COVID-19
Localize food production in underutilized

spaces like roofs and vacant plots to
minimize supply chain hand-offs.
Alleys can provide overflow space for

delivery, storage, and even dining.
This urban-scale diagram depicts

opportunities for seating in the public
realm, shared delivery and processing
infrastructure, and localized food
production.
Roofs can house open or

covered dining and exchange.
Dining can expand into the

sidewalk and street parking lane.
Source: MASS Design Group, 2020.
194
Repurposing open space to set up emergency treatment centres in Saitama Japan

Source: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/09/05/national/coronavirus-japan-temporary-treatment-sites/)
co-implementation of projects, knowledge production and home. Therefore, street reallocation programmes should be
capacity building, and using assessment and monitoring tools implemented so as not to exacerbate inequality.53
for objective communication of the benefits.52 Urban residents’
recent interest in green spaces provides a key opportunity A recent study conducted in Seattle, US; Washington, D.C.,
to garner support for the extension of green infrastructure US;, and Vancouver, Canada, demonstrates that such initiatives
networks, which could help overcome some barriers. have been implemented in neighbourhoods home to recent
immigrants, low-income families, people with disabilities and
One important issue that needs to be considered when racial minorities. Therefore, while temporary reallocation
reconfiguring green, open and public spaces is that they is helpful for meeting resident needs during the pandemic
should be designed and distributed properly so that physical (e.g. social distancing and daily exercise), their permanent
accessibility for all social groups, including children and youth, implementation should be analysed through an equity lens.54
women, older persons, and people with mobility restrictions,
can be guaranteed. Planning for marginalized populations
avoids taking response measures that will exacerbate the 6.3. Promoting Compact Urban
living conditions of vulnerable groups. For instance, allocating Development
more space to walking and cycling could negatively impact the
accessibility of other groups such as essential workers who The adoption of the New Urban Agenda in 2016 codified
need rapid mobility. Such essential workers are often from a global vision of compact urban development that would
low-income and marginalized groups who cannot work from check unplanned urban expansion and so-called suburban
sprawl. Such development patterns became common with
the advent of the automobile and have led to a number of
Creating networks of green areas and open adverse consequences. This land-intensive pattern contributes
spaces will allow better responses to future to environmental degradation, deforestation and habitat
pandemics while also providing co-benefits loss. By engineering long distances between work, home,
like climate change adaptation and ecological commerce, school and leisure, dispersed urban development
restoration leads to social isolation, less physical activity and increased
195
GHG emissions per capita. Serving fewer residents with the mortality rates in different cities shows that except for some
same amount of roads, sidewalks and utilities leads to higher outliers, there is no special relationship between city size
public cost burdens to maintain infrastructure. Allowing more (population) and mortality rates.61
affluent residents to wall themselves off in gated communities
or distant suburbs defined by exclusionary single-use zoning Overall, existing evidence on the association between built
engenders socio-spatial segregation and worsens social environment factors and COVID-19 infection/mortality rate
cohesion.55 Finally, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, shows that density and city size per se are not influential
urban development that encroaches on wild places increases factors and their impacts are mediated by other socio-
the risk of exposure to zoonotic diseases.56 economic, contextual, and behavioural factors such as
income, social structure, degree of connectivity, quality and
distribution patterns of urban infrastructure, and the extent
New Urban Agenda in 2016 codified a global of compliance with social distancing and hygiene measures.62
vision of compact urban development that For instance, while people in a poor neighbourhood of a
would check unplanned urban expansion and compact city are likely to be vulnerable due to the lack of
so-called suburban sprawl access to infrastructure, limited floor area, and the difficulties
of compliance with stay home and social distancing measures,
There are now concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic could those who live in better-off neighbourhoods with better
result in a new wave of suburbanization due to perceptions access to infrastructure and can afford staying at home during
of higher contagion risk in high-density areas, the need for lockdown periods are less likely to be vulnerable.
more space to fulfil work and leisure needs during lockdowns,
and the accelerated trends of remote working that reduce In many parts of the world (both developed and developing
the need to commute to central business districts. Expensive countries), low-income areas have been hit harder by the
mega-cities in land-rich countries saw population loss as pandemic. In New York, for example, mortality rates in low-
some residents moved to ensure better access to open and income neighbourhoods were about two times higher than
green spaces and avoid overcrowded urban life.57 While it is those in better-off neighbourhoods. This discrepancy could
still too early to say whether these trends are temporary or be explained by the fact that low-income households live and
people will start to move back to big cities as the pandemic work in smaller spaces, making it more difficult to observe
slows down, there is an urgent need for urban planners social distancing rules. In addition, their precarious livelihood
to examine the performance of compact cities during the conditions make it difficult for them to stay home for a long
pandemic and take necessary actions to ensure that compact period.63 There is ample evidence suggesting that housing
cities will not lose their appeal. inequality has made it difficult to control the spread of the
pandemic in cities such as Mumbai, India. In crowded slums
6.3.1. Density (population, housing, built and informal settlements, households have limited access
environment) and public health to adequate infrastructure, are deprived of basic services
Concerns over the role of density in the spread of contagious such as clean water and sanitation, and are exposed to high
diseases date back decades. The link between population levels of indoor and outdoor air pollution. These conditions
density and public health was one of the main themes of make them more vulnerable to infectious diseases and cause
the First International Congress for Sanitation and Housing challenges for following protective measures such as social
Health Safety held in Paris in 1904. Studies in the past have distancing and practicing good personal hygiene.
shown an association between infectious disease mortality
(tuberculosis) and housing density as social distancing is Housing inequality may become further exacerbated during
challenging in poorly designed, high-density areas that could pandemics or other adverse events, resulting in higher rates
lead to overcrowding.58 Research results reported on the of unemployment and sluggish housing supply, reducing
association between density and the number of COVID-19 housing affordability. Accordingly, urban planners should
cases and death are inconclusive. Some studies have shown an develop policies and strategies to provide affordable housing
overlap between population density and COVID morbidity and in order to mitigate housing inequality and its potential
mortality rates in countries such as China, Iran and Chile.59 associated risks for public health.64
However, in most cases there is no compelling evidence that
density is a risk factor.60 Similarly, there is no strong evidence Connectivity is another mediating factor that can play an
suggesting that larger cities are more vulnerable. Comparing important role. Some have argued that connectivity has
196
Dealing with adverse events such as the pandemic is particularly challenging in slums. A sense from Santa Marta favela in Botafogo, South Zone of Rio De Janeiro, Brazil © Shutterstock
played a larger role in the initially higher rate of pandemic make them more vulnerable to pandemics. This hypothesis is
spread in larger and more dense cities rather than city size supported by evidence showing that the mortality rate from
or density. Such cities are often characterized by a large infectious diseases such as flu is higher in suburban and
network of connections with other cities locally, regionally rural areas than in urban areas, which offer better access to
and internationally, leading to more human interactions and medical services and higher rates of compliance with public
the spread of the virus at higher rates.65Accordingly, early health measures.67
actions to restrict mobility or taking measures to ensure
safer mobility could be effective in reducing contagion risk 6.3.2. Re-emphasizing the need for compact urban
in such dense areas. development
Overall, urban planners should make the case that well-
Generally, suburban areas proved to be less resilient to designed and well-managed compact cities featuring
adverse events due to limited accessibility to emergency and characteristics such as equitable distribution of infrastructure
response services.66 Similarly, the lack of healthcare and and services, mixed uses, walkable access to open and green
medical services in low-density suburban areas could indeed spaces, and support to vulnerable residents during adverse
events (e.g. economic support packages, and delivery of food
and basic services) are safe and not more vulnerable than low-
density suburban or rural areas.68 Considering that certain
Housing inequality may become further levels of compactness are needed to support economies of
exacerbated during pandemics or other scale, minimize unregulated intrusion in ecosystems, and
adverse events, resulting in higher rates of facilitate other sustainable urban development measures
unemployment and sluggish housing supply, such as multimodal transportation, it is imperative to regain
reducing housing affordability public confidence in compact urban form.
197
Well-designed and well-managed compact

cities are safe and not more vulnerable than
low-density suburban or rural areas
Even as public health fears diminish, the accelerated trends

of teleworking, decreased demand for commercial office
space and less investment in urban regeneration due to
potential decline in inner-city property markets are other
likely threats to the future of compact cities.69 According
to global research, 65 per cent of people have been working
from home, and around 50 per cent of those plan to continue
remote working post-pandemic.70 To ensure that compact
cities do not lose their appeal amidst such transformations,
these changing trends and potential decline in land values
could be seized as an opportunity to provide affordable
housing in inner-city areas.71 However, measures should
be taken to ensure such areas’ economic and social vitality.
As already practiced in cities like San Francisco (Box 6.5), Velib shared bicycles in Paris, France © Shutterstock
amending zoning regulations to facilitate the flexible design
of outdoor spaces, redesigning streets and open spaces in a
more people-centric manner, and promoting micro-mobility since the early 20th century.73 Indeed, neighbourhood
options could be effective in helping compact cities emerge planning has been the major focus of various urban
more liveable and affordable in the coming years.72 planning concepts and movements such as garden cities,
neighbourhood unit, traditional neighbourhood development,
6.3.3. Sustainable neighbourhood planning and the transit-oriented development, smart growth, urban village,
15-minute city New Urbanism, and ecological urbanism. These over 100
What makes a city compact are its constituent parts: years of efforts have been successful in delineating the
neighbourhoods. Neighbourhood planning and regeneration underlying principles and characteristics of sustainable
has been a major concern for urban planners and designers neighbourhood planning and design. There is now consensus
Box 6.5: San Francisco makes four Slow Streets permanent
San Francisco launched the Slow Streets programme in April 2020 amid the pandemic, ultimately closing 31 streets to through traffic
and giving residents safe spaces to walk, bike and socially distance. People living on the streets and emergency vehicles still have
access. The San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency (SFMTA) later voted to keep four Slow Streets beyond the COVID-19
emergency order, starting the process to determine which of the city’s streets will permanently remain pedestrian friendly.
Multi-block stretches are the first corridors the board decided will welcome cyclists and pedestrians for the long-term. Design
measures have been taken in the four streets to improve safety. Wayfinding signs and crosswalks are planned and new vehicle turn
restrictions are slated to reduce through traffic, for example.
SFMTA is evaluating all Slow Streets “for a post-pandemic future” to develop a network of pedestrian- and bicyclist-friendly corridors
that lasts beyond the pandemic. The process includes surveying residents who live within a quarter mile of a slow street and
collecting pedestrian, bicycle and vehicle counts.
Source: Graff, 2021.
198
Design standards introduced by these frameworks are

Adequate provision of green,
context-specific and may not be applicable to all contexts
open and public spaces; efficient
without customization. While much of the future world
design of streets and street
urban population growth will occur in the cities of developing
networks; appropriate levels of
countries, they often lack their own context-specific
density; land use mix; and social
neighbourhood design standards, which could result in
mix are elements conducive to
undesirable neighbourhood development patterns, directed
developing neighbourhoods
by market forces.
that sustainable neighbourhoods should have a certain level of Despite the vast body of knowledge on sustainable
density, be inclusive and socially mixed, follow principles of neighbourhood planning principles, there is still a
mixed-use development, allow walkable access to daily needs, mismatch between the theory and practice of sustainable
feature a well-designed network of streets and open/green neighbourhood planning.78 This mismatch has been further
spaces, promote modularity and the circular economy though highlighted during the recent pandemic when in most
integration of renewable energy technologies as well as green cases, neighbourhoods failed to respond to resident needs
infrastructure systems that minimize resource consumption during the mobility restriction periods. COVID-19 has,
and facilitate recycling. Such neighbourhoods are expected to therefore, further revealed the need for better accessibility
be climate resilient and offer co-benefits in terms of equity to amenities at the neighbourhood scale. In addition
and justice.74 to mobility restrictions, during pandemics and other
adverse events, lack of accessibility to essential services
Context-specific conditions make it difficult to recommend and amenities such as neighbourhood health centres,
prescriptive standards and design measures. However, there pharmacies and supermarkets could affect the quality of
is consensus that attention to measures such as adequate life of residents, particularly those that do not own private
provision of green, open and public spaces; efficient design vehicles. The importance of neighbourhood medical centres
of streets and street networks; appropriate levels of density; for conducting timely primary response measures (e.g.
land use mix; and social mix are elements conducive to screening) has been demonstrated in countries such as the
developing neighbourhoods that can contribute to addressing Republic of Korea.79 In the absence of such neighbourhood-
urbanization challenges such as inequality, congestion, based facilities, municipal and regional health centres could
biodiversity loss, urban sprawl and inefficient resource be overcrowded, as has been observed in Italy.80 This will
consumption.75 undermine their performance and capacity to test and treat
patients. Additionally, overcrowding may lead to the further
More detailed and context-specific measures and standards spread of the virus.81
have been recommended in an increasing number of
design frameworks and assessment tools developed to Neighbourhood planning based on the principles of
guide sustainable neighbourhood planning and design. For walkability, cyclability, accessibility, mixed use, and
instance, Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design for compactness and through integration of green infrastructure
Neighbourhood Development (LEED-ND) is a US designation can provide multiple co-benefits for health, equity, and
that governs standards for various neighbourhood planning climate change adaptation and mitigation. The pandemic
and design factors such as smart location and linkage, highlighted the need for walkability and access to green and
neighbourhood pattern and design, and green infrastructure open spaces. There is evidence suggesting that compact and
and Buildings. While LEED-ND has been mainly developed well-designed neighbourhoods increase physical activity,
to promote neighbourhood regeneration and curb urban thereby contributing to health improvements such as
sprawl in the United States, it has also been used in other reducing obesity.82 Urban agriculture can also provide better
countries that lack their own framework.76 In addition, the access to healthy food, especially in so-called “food deserts”
Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment that lack such access.83
Methodology (BREEAM) and the Communities and
Comprehensive Assessment System for Built Environment Many of the benefits of sustainable neighbourhood planning
Efficiency (CASBEE) for urban development are other widely have been repackaged since 2020 under the banner of the
known frameworks that originated from the United Kingdom 15-, 20- or 30-minute city. The concept, applicable to both
and Japan, respectively.77 ‘ existing and new developments, advocates for neighbourhood
199
design that allows residents to meet most of their daily needs structure. Such patterns enable better resilience to adverse
within a fixed timeframe by foot or bicycle. Paris popularized events. For instance, centralized wholesale food markets
the 15-minute city (Figure 6.6). Melbourne, Australia, and proved ineffective during the pandemic when accessibility
Portland, US aspire to the 20-minute city (Figure 6.7). Adding was limited due to mobility restrictions.84
public transport to the mix, Sydney promotes the 30-minute
city model. While the nomenclature is new, the underlying While the concept of a 15-minute city is promising, the
idea of a 15-, 20- or 30-minute city is not completely new idea is yet to be fully investigated in real-world contexts.
and builds on previous ideas and movements described at The history of urban planning indicates that similar utopian
the beginning of this section that emphasize walkable, visions like the garden city model have had limited success
self-contained, and mixed-used neighbourhoods that mix in solving societal issues due to their failure to consider the
working, living and leisure. The 15-minute neighbourhood multiple forces that shape cities. Planners should learn from
design allows for decentralized cities with a more polycentric previous movements and take smart measures to ensure
that 15-minute neighbourhoods do not exacerbate spatial
inequalities in cities by becoming enclaves for wealthy
Neighbourhood planning based on the principles urbanites segregated from the overall urban structure.
of walkability, cyclability, accessibility, mixed Another important issue is that planners and policy-makers
use, and compactness and through integration should not adopt the concept without considering the
of green infrastructure can provide multiple co- context-specific conditions of cities. Each city has unique
benefits for health, equity, and climate change characteristics, which should be duly considered when
adaptation and mitigation planning 15-minute cities.
Figure 6.6: The 15-Minute Paris
Source: Nigudkar, 2021.
200
Figure 6.7: Representation of the 20-minute neighbourhood in the Melbourne Plan
Local Shopping
Local employment centres Local Health
opportunities Facilities and
services
Well connected to public
transport, jobs and services Local schools
within the region
Local public Lifelong learning

transport opportunities
Safe Cycling
networks Features of a Locall playgrounds
and parks
20-minute Neighbourhood
Walkability
Green street spaces
Housing
diversity
Community
Ability to age gardens
in place
Sports and
Affordable recreation facilities
Safe streets and
housing options
spaces
Source: State Government of Victoria, 2022.
6.4. Planning for the Future of Public experienced an all-time low since 2020.85 Declines were
Transport Systems particularly significant during the lockdown and depressed
ridership figures have persisted even as restrictions have
Safe and convenient access to public transportation is one of been lifted (Figure 6.8). According to the International
the indicators of sustainable development, as highlighted in Association of Public Transport (UITP), many governments
SDG 11.2. The importance of safe, affordable, and reliable actively discouraged the public from using public transport.
public transport systems for sustainable development and This complete reversal from decades of efforts to promote
equitable participation of all social groups in urban activities public transport impacted urban mobility patterns. Evidence
has also been underlined across the New Urban Agenda. now shows that public transport can be “COVID-safe”
Accordingly, many efforts to promote public transportation when measures recommended by health departments are
have been made in recent years. The pandemic, however, is implemented accordingly.86 But as public transit ridership
reshaping urban transport and, due to its impacts, mobility declined, two major trends emerged. One is increased
options are likely to be dramatically changed in the future. car dependency and the other, growing interest in active
mobility modes such as walking and cycling.
6.4.1 Implications of transportation trends during
the pandemic In some countries like India, car dependency increased since
Public transport has been recognized as an essential service the emergence of COVID-19, and people formerly interested
during the COVID-19 pandemic as it ensured the mobility in active and public transportation shifted towards private
of essential workers. It helped to guarantee access to cars.87 These trends show that in the absence of safe,
services for many people around the world. However, due to affordable, and reliable public transportation systems, the
concerns over the safety of public transport and the ability future of urban mobility could continue to be dominated
of knowledge workers to work remotely, transit ridership by private motorized vehicles. If this scenario emerges, it
201
Figure 6.8: Impacts of COVID-19 on public transit ridership between 2020 and 2021 in a 25-city research
Active private-car users, % Active public-transport users, %
25 Share of public-transport trips

35 65
Share of private-car trips
80
65 75 While the overall number of trips
decreased with the pandemic,
private-car trips increased among 35
both public - and private - transport 20
users.
Before the At this time Before the At this time
pandemic pandemic
Source: Checulin et al., 2021.
will have major implications for climate change mitigation congestion also leads to other issues such as traffic accidents
and could exacerbate already challenging issues such as air and health impacts associated with air pollution (Figure
pollution, congestion, and road safety. Productivity loss due 6.9).89 Evidence shows that cities with efficient and modern
to congestion is already estimated to be about 1 per cent of public transport systems are safer and have less road fatalities
global GDP.88 Dependence on private vehicles and associated as compared to car-oriented cities.90
Figure 6.9: The link between traffic fatality rates and public transport ridership
Table 1 -In places where public transport ridership is high, traffic fatalities are low
The link between traffic fatality rates and public transport ridership is especially strng in larger cities
Traffic Fatalities per 100,000 population
20 Northern Europe
Southern Europe
US
15 Canada
Austrslia
10
0
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000
Annual per Capita Transit Passenger -Miles
Source: Moglia et al., 2021
202
Given those statistical dynamics, sustaining public transport Lima, Peru, with a high population of informal workers who
while ensuring walking and cycling access is vital for avoiding make their livelihood in public spaces, established 50 km
a spike in traffic fatalities, addressing climate emergencies, of emergency cycle lanes early in the pandemic to facilitate
and improving equity as the urban poor may not be able to safe urban mobility. By late 2020, the city pushed to make
afford private vehicles. It is estimated that about 80 per cent the infrastructure permanent and in June 2021, the Ministry
of the total vehicle kilometres travelled are made by about of Transport and Communication of Peru accelerated the
10 per cent of the global population. approval of national legislation that promotes and regulates
the use of the bicycle as a sustainable mode of transport.95
In this regard, actions such as redesigning streetscapes and
About 80 per cent of the total vehicle kilometres reallocating underutilized spaces to provide protected cycling
travelled are made by about 10 per cent of the and pedestrian lanes, promoting bicycle ownership and cycling
global population infrastructure, and expanding smart bike-sharing programmes
to facilitate synergistic benefits are recommended.96
Most of the world’s population only rarely travel by car.91
To retain confidence in public transport, a combination of When bicycles were difficult to find in stores, cities like New York
measures is necessary such as enhancement of accessibility with robust bike-sharing programmes saw substantial increases
and reliability standards, modernization of business in use. As public transport ridership recovers, integrating bike
models and public-private partnerships for public transport sharing with mass transit could provide opportunities to further
operations, the introduction of tax increases on private reduce reliance on private automobiles and taxis for last-mile
vehicles and incentive packages for transit use, improvement connections and lead to more low-carbon transportation.97
of hygiene standards, and use of high-efficiency particulate Evidence from Boston, US, shows that bike-sharing reduces car
air filters and better ventilation techniques.92 While ownership per household by over 2 per cent, per capita vehicle
overcrowding was a recurring pre-pandemic concern on miles travelled by more than 3 per cent and GHG emissions per
public transport, travel demand has been reduced through capita by about 3 per cent.
the adoption of flexible working arrangements that allow
both teleworking and working at the office.93 Bike-sharing is found to be one of the most resilient
transportation modes. For instance, while subway ridership
has not returned to pre-COVID levels in many cities like
While overcrowding was a recurring pre- New York, data shows that bike-sharing ridership returned
pandemic concern on public transport, travel to normal soon after mobility restrictions were eased.98
demand has been reduced through the adoption However, to enhance its effectiveness, bike-sharing systems
of flexible working arrangements that allow both should cover all parts of cities, including low-income areas,
teleworking and working at the office and offer affordable pricing.99
The second major transportation trend brought on by the As the need for private automobiles will not go away
COVID-19 pandemic is increased momentum for active immediately, the promotion of shared mobility (car-sharing)
transportation. When urban residents were discouraged from is an effective strategy to reduce emissions. Further uptake of
riding public transport, many turned to walking and cycling. shared, electric and autonomous vehicles through so-called
With less motorized traffic, urban planners responded nimbly “mobility as a service” schemes are also recommended to
by creating additional spaces for these activities as well as ensure seamless connectivity, multimodality and innovation
other purposes such as eating at outside restaurants in a in the transport sector. Simultaneously, a shift towards
widespread implementation of a technique known as “tactical renewable energy is also pivotal to reducing the sector’s
urbanism.”94 This quick action was necessary, and cities must reliance on fossil fuels.
act fast in order to build on the momentum and drive lasting
transformation in urban mobility in the post-pandemic era.
Integrating bike sharing with mass transit could
The tactical urbanism implementation modality during COVID- provide opportunities to further reduce reliance
19, in which bicycle lanes were literally installed overnight, on private automobiles and taxis for last-mile
provides great insights on the needed response partnerships connections and lead to more low-carbon
between city governments, civil society and private sector. transportation
203
They are widely used by local authorities to access funding

To enhance its effectiveness, bike-sharing in India, Brazil and France. Sustainable urban mobility
systems should cover all parts of cities, including planning, specifically, is a strategic approach to transport
low-income areas, and offer affordable pricing planning that focuses on the mobility needs of people and
businesses in cities following three principles: integration,
Guided by the New Urban Agenda, cities must align their participation and evaluation.105 Municipal governments use
transport, climate, energy and urban development plans to SUMPs to shift investments from infrastructure development
achieve both the Sustainable Development Goals and the prioritizing people’s and businesses’ mobility needs. SUMPs
Paris Agreement commitments. help prioritize low-cost measures alongside capital-intensive
projects in plans suited to the specific urban needs of each
Overall, there is a need for a paradigm shift toward human- city. SUMPs may also be practical tools to align urban goals
centric and environmentally friendly mobility options. with those set up at the regional and national levels.
Currently, the transport sector accounts for about one-
quarter of global energy-related CO2 emissions and air The main objectives of SUMPs are to ensure access to transport
pollution kills about 7 million people annually of which a large services for all, improve safety and security, reduce pollution and
number can be traced to pollution from vehicular traffic.100 energy consumption, improve efficiency and cost-effectiveness
Road traffic accidents also kill about 1.3 million people every of the transport system and contribute to the attractiveness and
year.101 The world urban population is projected to reach quality of the urban environment.106 The emphasis of SUMPs
6.68 billion by 2050, up from 4.2 billion in 2018. If private is on interdisciplinary dialogues that enable participation in
vehicles fuelled by non-renewable energy sources remain the transport decisions, expanding the range of long-term goals of
dominant mode of transportation by then, the number of cars transport planning, and incorporating key challenges such as
on streets is likely to reach about 2 billion vehicles,102 with wellbeing, nature conservation, and equity (Figure 6.10).
significant implications for socioeconomic and environmental
sustainability and climate change mitigation. SUMPs benefit from quantitative and qualitative information
on responses to modifications in transport supply and
To avoid this scenario and accelerate the transition of demand,107 user preferences, mobility needs and existing
sustainable urban transport, future mobility options should practices. User surveys and focus groups to collect data
move away from the private car and rather focus on a strong also serve as engagement exercises, helping a wide range
multimodal public transport system that comprises good of stakeholders inform SUMPs. Scenario planning processes
facilities for walking and cycling and share mobility options. integrate information and support the development of
The increased environmental awareness and interest in active planning strategies. The main challenges are ensuring
transportation driven by the pandemic along with advances in disaggregated data collection that includes data on different
technologies that provide alternative mobility options such as groups’ mobility needs and practices, developing scenario
smart bike-sharing, or shared and electric mobility, or mobility validation methods, and facilitating the participation of a
as a service (MaaS), provide opportunities to lure people broad set of stakeholders.108
away from reliance on private automobiles and towards active
transportation, shared mobility and public transit.103 6.4.3. Avoid-Shift-Improve
The Avoid-Shift-Improve (ASI) framework summarizes
6.4.2. Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans (SUMPs) general practical lessons from experiences on sustainable
To achieve these goals, cities can adopt sustainable urban urban mobility. The ASI framework focuses on three
mobility plans (SUMPs) to guide short- and long-term interventions:
mobility planning and involve stakeholders in the process.104
AVOID: disincentivize polluting private vehicles and
unnecessary trips
Future mobility options should move
away from the private car and rather SHIFT: encourage active travel, shared mobility, or public
focus on a strong multimodal public transport
transport system that comprises
good facilities for walking and cycling IMPROVE: facilitate technological and institutional
and share mobility options improvements in the current system
204
Figure 6.10: Sustainable Urban Mobility Planning
Planning Cycle for a sustainable Urban Mobility Plan
Milestone: Milestone:
Measure implementation Decision to prepare
evaluated a SUMP
12.1 Analyse successes and failures 1.1 Evaluate capacities and resources
12.2 Share results and lessons learned 1.2 Create inter-departmental core team
12.3 Consider new challenges and solutions 01 1.3 Ensure political and institutional ownership
12 1.4 Plan stakeholder and citizen involvement
02 Assess planning requirements and define
11.1 Monitor progress and adapt 2.1
Review Set up geographic scope (‘functional urban area’)
11.2
Inform and engage citizens and and learn working
stakeholders
2.2 Link with other planning processes
lessons structures Determine
11 Monitor,
planning 2.3 Agree timeline and work plan
adapt and
communicate framework 2.4 Consider getting external support
10.1 Coordinate implementation of actions
03
n Pr ep
tio ar Identify information sources and
10.2 Procure goods and services ta n g at 3.1
e n tor i i cooperate with data owners
i
& m lem
on
Manage Analyse mobility Analyse problems and
on
&a
Im p
3.2
implementation situation opportunities (all modes)
10
naly
Milestone: SUSTAINABLE
sis
Sustainable Urban RBAN MOBILITY
Mobility Plan adopted Milestone:
PLANNING 04
Mea
Prepare for adoption Analysis of problems and

nt
Build and jointly
and financing me opportunities concluded
su
assess scenarios
op
re
Develop financial plans and agree la v

el
nn de
p
9.1
cost sharing in g gy
Str ate 4.1
Develop scenarios of
Finalise and assure quality Develop potential futures
9.2
of ‘Sustainable Urban Mobility 09 vision and
Discuss scenarios with
Plan’ document Agree actions and strategy with 4.2
citizens and stakeholders
responsibilities stakeholders 05
Select Set targets
8.1 Describe all actions
measure and indicators
8.2
Identify funding sources and assess packages with 5.1
Co-create common vision with citizens
financial capacities and stakeholders
08 stakeholders
8.3 Agree priorities, responsibilities and timeline 06 5.2
Agree objectives addressing key problems
and all modes
8.4 Ensure wide political and public support
07
7.1
Create and assess long list of measures
with stakeholders 6.1 Identify indicators for all objectives
7.2 Define integrated measure packages Milestone: 6.2 Agree measurable targets
Vision, objectives and
7.3 Plan measure monitoring and evaluation targets agreed © Rupprecht Consult 2019
Source: Rupprecht Consult, 2019.
A detailed analysis of the impacts of each action is also Avoid and Shift measures may have lower costs and a range
needed. For example, a shift in public transport may have of positive co-benefits (Figure 6.11).109
different components, including low-carbon public transport
using waterways, electrified road or rail infrastructure, and Urban planning can mobilize transport planning tools such
bikes for local deliveries. The COVID-19 pandemic has called as congestion charging, road closure, transport provision,
for rethinking the future of public transportation as more creation of cycles lanes and pedestrianization. Land use and
people have turned to more remote activity and less travel. urban form are essential elements that enable or hinder
Where shifts are not possible in the short term, improving the possibilities for sustainable transport and mobility.110
existing options may be the most immediate answer for In its 2013 report Planning and Design for Sustainable
decarbonization, for example, investing in electric vehicles. Urban Mobility: Global Report on Human Settlements,
However, changing technologies alone will be insufficient UN-Habitat advocated for a “conceptual leap” in transport
to achieve net-zero without significant impacts on people’s planning: Rather than focusing on extending infrastructure
well-being and mobility needs. As the framework shows, and encouraging people’s movements over long distances,
205
Figure 6.11: Examples of instruments under an Avoid/Shift/Improve framework
Avoid Shift Improve -Instruments
No travel Active Public motorized Individual motorized

Activity Transport Transport Transport
No desire or need to
travel Walking cycling Public transport (bus, rail) Car, taxi, motorcycle
Avoid
Shift Improve
Avoid to reduce Shift to more energy Improve efficiency through
travel or the need efficient modes vehicle technology
to travel
Planning Regulatory Economic Information Investment

Instruments Instruments Instruments Instruments Instruments
Land-use planning/ Norms and standards Fuel taxes, road Public awareness Fuel improvement,
providing for pubic (emissions, safety), pricing, subsidies, campaigns, mobility cleaner
transport and non- organization (speed purchase taxes, fees management, technologies,
motorized modes limits, parking, road and levies, emissions marketing schemes, end-of-pipe control
space allocation, trading co-operative devices, cleaner
production process) agrremetns, eco- production
driving schemes
Source: Transformative Urban Mobility Initiative (TUMI), 2019.
the report argued for bringing people, places, and activities Accordingly, trade, species, humans, and other actors and
closer together. These ideas are not new but have regained elements constantly flow in and out of cities in dynamic
traction in proposals to facilitate the recovery from the and non-linear patterns. Further, urban agglomerations,
COVID-19 pandemic.111 The Avoid-Shift-Improve framework where several cities are closely interrelated and function
exemplifies the need to move beyond specific tools, as integrated economies, are common in many parts of the
to integrate action across policy domains and facilitate world.112 The high density of internal connections between
placemaking interventions that support the integration cities in such agglomerations provides multiple benefits for
of different activities in proximity (housing, employment, establishing a strong local economy.
education, leisure and entertainment) and reduce the need
to travel. However, such high connectivity levels may have implications
for resilience as shocks and disruptions in one part of the
system could rapidly spread to the other parts. For instance,
6.5. The Importance of Spatial Scales water contamination at the point source in rural areas
and Analysis for the Future of Urban can have major implications for urban residents living in
Planning downstream locations;113 or, loss of connectivity between
cities and their hinterland areas could lead to supply chain
Cities do not exist in isolation. In addition to being connected disruption. Accordingly, since the urban-rural interface is
to the global markets, they have strong ties with their highly interconnected, planning processes for urban and
hinterland areas. They are always dependent on other cities rural areas should not occur in isolation from one another.
and rural areas in their hinterland to provide urban services Urban planning should instead consider issues that cross
and commodities and multiple types of ecosystem services. official municipal boundaries.114
206
6.5.1. Urban-rural interlinkages and pandemics approaches allow planning to play its role as a preventative
International policy frameworks like the SDGs and NUA tool (in contrast to biomedical approaches that are mainly
emphasize the need for multi-level governance, regional focused on responses).118
coordination and integrated approaches that acknowledge
interactions between urban, peri-urban, and rural areas. Adopting a regional and territorial approach means
Despite these frameworks, urban-rural interlinkages are acknowledging that cities are socio-ecological systems, and
often overlooked in urban planning and decision-making their management requires integrated approaches instead
practices. This oversight has resulted in major problems of silo-based ones.119 For this purpose, in some contexts,
such as degrading ecosystem services and encroachment on regional and territorial planning has been utilized.120
natural habitats. However, the current planning systems based on political or
administrative boundaries often do not lend themselves to
the proper consideration of dynamic interactions between
Urban-rural interlinkages are often overlooked in urban and rural settlements that are nested within an
urban planning and decision-making practices integrated spatial network. It is, therefore, suggested that
planning system boundaries should be determined based
Unregulated peri-urban development that increases human on community and/or functional criteria. While defining
interaction with other species may increase zoonotic diseases functional boundaries could be challenging in some contexts
through virologic mutation, as observed in many rapidly due to data limitations, readily available data from satellite
urbanizing countries of Asia, such as China and Vietnam.115 imagery and population grids can be used to develop
Virologists have argued that the convergence of three standardized methods for defining functional boundaries.121
processes, namely, urbanization, agricultural intensification
and habitat alteration has increased the emergence and Adopting a regional and territorial approach
spread of infectious diseases. For instance, evidence means acknowledging that cities are socio-
suggests links between emerging infectious diseases and ecological systems, and their management
rapid urbanization in China and other rapidly urbanizing requires integrated approaches instead of silo-
developing countries. In other words, rapid urbanization has based ones
triggered and accelerated the spread of infectious diseases.
It is estimated that about half of zoonotic diseases that
emerged since 1940 could be linked to periods of major Ensuring proper planning in such a functionally-defined
forest loss and habitat encroachment.116 system requires adopting a multi-level governance system
that can coordinate activities across different types of
In rapidly urbanizing contexts that are going through land use human settlements.122 Instead of fragmented systems where
transition in peri-urban areas (from agricultural to urban), each city operates in isolation, in integrated governance
effective siting decisions need to be made to, in addition systems, networks of cities are formed, and dynamics and
to minimizing negative impacts on natural ecosystems, impacts beyond individual municipal boundaries are taken
regulate the human-livestock interface and ensure their into account in planning and decision-making processes.
comingling does not lead to “host-jumping and pathogen Multi-level governance that facilitates cooperation across
spread among humans.”117 In addition to mitigating scales also contributes to achieving the New Urban Agenda’s
environmental impacts, regional interventions that manage objectives and enhances socio-economic and environmental
and regulate urbanization, agricultural intensification and values of sustainable urbanization, as is explained in the
habitat alteration processes through land-use planning and World Cities Report 2020.123
spatial planning can reduce the risk of human exposure to
zoonotic agents, thereby facilitating more effective control 6.5.2. Food systems and resilience
of virus transmission and contagion risks. Regional planning While multi-level governance involves multiple issues, the
food supply chain offers a tangible example. The issue of
food security and cities’ dependence on their hinterland
Unregulated peri-urban development that provides a strong justification for promoting multi-level
increases human interaction with other species governance systems. While cities can meet part of their food
may increase zoonotic diseases through needs through urban agriculture, they will remain dependent
virologic mutation on their peri-urban and rural areas and international supply
chains to ensure food security. Adverse events such as
207
its abilities to strike a balance between regional dependency

While cities can meet part of their food and local self-sufficiency (Box 6.5) and to foster and
needs through urban agriculture, they will strengthen collaboration among different local governments
remain dependent on their peri-urban and and stakeholders.126 Having collaborative networks is
rural areas and international supply chains critical for community resilience against different shocks,
to ensure food security including pandemics. CRFS also provides multiple benefits
for sustainability. It contributes to enhancing availability and
pandemics can result in food insecurity in cities due to accessibility to quality locally grown food, thereby providing
food processing, distribution and delivery disruptions. health benefits; helps protect the ecosystem by nurturing
Multi-level governance at the regional scale is needed to soil and improving watershed management; strengthens
respond to such disruptions and engage multiple actors and the local economy by increasing money recirculation with
stakeholders in planning for better regional resilience. Such the region; and increases social capital by providing more
multi-level governance will ensure improved management opportunities for interactions and collaboration between
of interlinkages and interdependencies among different different stakeholders.127
settlements in a city-region.124
Overall, for cities to be more resilient against pandemics
Based on the principles of multi-level regional planning and and other threats, multi-level governance approaches and
governance, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) coordinated policies and actions across different scales
has proposed the City-Region Food Systems (CRFS) approach and sectors are needed. Such approaches facilitate better
that provides opportunities to address challenges “inherent management of the transitional spaces between urban and
to the industrial capital-driven food system” that can result rural areas and can enhance efficiency, minimize conflicts
in supply chain disruptions and food insecurity during and trade-offs, and maximize co-benefits and synergies
adverse events (Figure 6.12).125 Key features of CRFS are between different measures and strategies.
Figure 6.12: The City-Region Food Systems (CRFS) approach
Source: FAO, 2022.
208
Box 6.6: Harambee urban farms fill a crucial void for Black, Latinx families during the pandemic
When COVID-19 began developing in 2020, Victory Garden Initiative, an urban farm in the Harambee neighbourhood, Milwaukee, US,
pivoted. The 1.5-acre farm nestled between Concordia Avenue and Townsend Street went from being for members only to allowing
access to anyone who wants fresh vegetables that are grown on the site. It has operated as a community-supported agriculture farm
since 2017 when the initiative acquired the land. People pay a yearly fee to receive a share or box of the farm’s harvest. Urban gardens
or farms like Victory Garden Initiative have increasingly stepped up to fill the food access void, providing fresh fruits and vegetables
during the pandemic. They’ve become pivotal in countering food insecurity, especially of Black and Latinx families.
Source: Lynch, 2021.
6.6. Concluding Remarks and Lessons for Compact development remains crucial for supporting
Policy economies of scale, minimizing unregulated intrusion
in ecosystems, and facilitating other sustainable urban
The COVID-19 pandemic could be a catalyst for major development measures such as creating cities of short
transformations in cities. Indeed, cities have often survived distances such as sustainable neighbourhood planning,
adverse events throughout history and developed innovative 15-minute and 20-minute cities. Well-designed and well-
solutions to recover stronger. Therefore, while the pandemic managed compact cities with equitable distribution of
has raised serious questions about the sustainability and infrastructure and services, mixed uses, walkable access
resilience of cities, it has also provided multiple insights for to open and green spaces, and support to vulnerable
reflection on the way forward as summarized below: residents during adverse events (e.g. economic support
packages, and delivery of food and basic services) are
The most important lesson is that current urban safe and resilient to pandemics.
development patterns are unsustainable in numerous
ways. The pandemic revealed that major transformations There is a need to reduce car dependence and continue
in the energy and transportation sectors are needed efforts to promote sustainable public transport and
to achieve deep decarbonization, which is essential active mobility. There are tools that are readily available
for dealing with climate change, a pressing challenge such as the Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans (SUMPs)
looming over cities. and Avoid-Shift-Improve (A-S-I). Additionally, integrated
transportation policies are needed to establish seamless
There is an urgent need for stimulus and recovery plans connections between public transportation and walking/
that ensure both socio-economic recovery and alignment cycling networks. In combination with measures aimed
with climate targets. Further investments in green and at increasing shared mobility and enhancing the safety
renewable technologies and solutions across all sectors, and affordability of public transportation, such policies
especially energy and transport, are needed. Such could effectively reduce car dependence in cities.
recovery efforts should be inclusive to minimize societal
inequalities that are blamed for disproportional impacts Urban and territorial planning should be enhanced to
of adverse events such as pandemics and climate-induced include a keener focus on urban-rural and food system
disasters on different social groupings in our cities. interlinkages. Cities do not exist in isolation and
planning efforts should reflect this.
It is essential to retrofit and redesign urban
infrastructure, both indoor and outdoor, to enhance
its resilience to pandemics and crises. The COVID-19
pandemic has shown the need for multi-purpose and
flexible spaces that can adapt to new scenarios, which
is a major shift from traditional urban planning practices
like single-use zoning that often overlook flexibility and
adaptability.
209
Endnotes
1. United Nations Department of 30. Alexandri and Janoschka, Naha, 2021; Khavarian-Garmsir et 95. Cities4Health, 2020.
Economic and Social Affairs, 2019. 2020. al., 2021. 96. Moglia et al., 2021.
2. Seto et al., 2013. 31. Sapra and Nayak, 61. UN-Habitat, 2021a. 97. Pase et al., 2020.
3. OECD and European Commission, 2021. 62. Sharifi and Khavarian-Garmsir, 2020. 98. Wang and Noland, 2021.
2020. 32. Gallent and Madeddu, 63. Kang et al., 2020. 99. Pase et al., 2020.
4. Sharifi and Khavarian-Garmsir, 2020. 2021. 64. Kang et al., 2020. 100. IPCC, 2014b.
5. UN-Habitat, 2016a. 33. Bayulken et al., 2021. 65. UN-Habitat, 2021a. 101. WHO, 2021f.
6. la Greca et al., 2020. 34. Balling et al., 2021. 66. Sharifi, 2019. 102. IPCC, 2014b.
7. Fezi, 2020. 35. Ferdous, 2021. 67. Hamidi et al., 2020; Kang et al., 103. Ceder, 2021.
8. Sharifi and Khavarian-Garmsir, 2020. 36. Gallent and Madeddu, 2020; Magallón-Botaya et al., 2021. 104. GIZ, 2014.
9. Sharifi et al., 2021. 202 68. Sharifi and Khavarian-Garmsir, 2020; 105. Eltis, 2021.
10. Åberg and Tondelli, 2021; Sapra and 37. Gallent and Madeddu, UN-Habitat, 2021a. 106. European Cyclists’ Federation, 2020.
Nayak, 2021. 202 69. Lai S. et al., 2020. 107. Okraszewska et al, 2018.
11. Campbell, 2018. 38. Hall and Vidén, 2005 70. Saint, 2021. 108. Eltis, 2021.
12. Venter et al., 2020. 39. Kang et al., 2020. 71. Chernick et al., 2020. 109. Liimatainen et al, 2018; Steg and
13. Sharifi, 2021. 40. UN-Habitat, 2021a. 72. Kakderi et al., 2021. Gifford, 2005.
14. Sharifi and Khavarian-Garmsir, 41. Fezi, 2020. 73. Sharifi, 2016. 110. Steg and Gifford, 2005.
2020. 42. Fezi, 2020. 74. Moreno et al., 2021; Sharifi, 2016. 111. UN-Habitat, 2013.
15. UNEP, 2021e. 43. Paköz et al., 2021. 75. Sharifi, 2016; UN-Habitat, 2015a. 112. Angel and Blei, 2020.
16. UNEP, 2020b. 44. Fezi, 2020. 76. Sharifi and Murayama, 2013. 113. Bhowmick et al., 2020.
17. Sharifi and Khavarian-Garmsir, 2020. 45. Alexandri and Janoschka, 77. Sharifi and Murayama, 2013. 114. UN-Habitat, 2021a.
18. Klenert et al., 2020. 2020. 78. Sharifi, 2016. 115. Spencer et al., 2022.
19. UN-Habitat, 2021a. 46. Pouso et al., 2021. 79. Kang et al., 2020. 116. Azevedo et al., 2020; UN-Habitat,
20. Martínez and Short, 2021; UNEP, 47. de Lannoy et al., 2020.. 80. Odone et al., 2020. 2021a.
2021. 48. Devine-Wright et al., 2020. 81. Kang et al., 2020. 117. Spencer et al., 2022.
21. UN-Habitat and Global Utmaning, 49. Fang et al., 2020. 82. Sallis et al., 2020. 118. Spencer et al., 2022.
2021. 50. Silva, 2016. 83. Sallis and Glanz, 2009. 119. Murgante et al., 2020.
22. Wade, 2020. 51. UN-Habitat, 2021a. 84. Blay-Palmer et al., 2021. 120. Gruehn, 2017; Todes, 2004.
23. United Nations Department of 52. Bayulken et al., 2021. 85. Shokouhyar et al., 2021. 121. Angel and Blei, 2020; OECD and
Economic and Social Affairs, 2019. 53. Firth et al., 2021. 86. UITP, 2020b. European Commission, 2020.
24. Biswas P.P., 2020. 54. Firth et al., 2021. 87. Thombre and Agarwal, 2021. 122. Angel and Blei, 2020.
25. Moglia et al., 2021. 55. Sharifi, 2019. 88. Moglia et al., 2021. 123. UN-Habitat, 2020a.
26. UN-Habitat and Global Utmaning, 56. Sharifi, 2019. 89. Moglia et al., 2021. 124. Sukhwani et al., 2020.
2021. 57. Gallent and Madeddu, 2021; Kakderi 90. UITP, 2020a. 125. Blay-Palmer et al., 2021.
27. Zhuang et al., 2021. et al., 2021; Sapra and Nayak, 2021. 91. Sims et al., 2014. 126. Blay-Palmer et al., 2021.
28. Martínez and Short, 58. Fezi, 2020. 92. Fezi, 2020. 127. Blay-Palmer et al., 2021.
2021. 59. Lak et al., 2021; Rivera-Córdova, 93. Barbarossa, 2020; Bojovic et al.,
29. Honey-Rosés et al., 2021; You et al., 2020. 2020; Hörcher et al., 2021.
2020. 60. Boterman, 2020; Federgruen and 94. Martínez and Short, 2021.
210
Chapter 7:
Public Health and Sustainable
Urban Futures
211
Public Health and Sustainable Urban Futures
Quick facts
1. Climate change has overtaken disease as the foremost urban health threat and risks leading to the high
damage urban future scenario.
2. The causes of mortality and ill health in cities have shifted significantly in the past 20 years with the rising
toll of Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) in both low-income and higher-income cities.
3. COVID-19 amplified cities’ entrenched health inequities with racial/ethnic minorities, women, displaced
populations, residents of informal settlements, precarious workers, and other marginalized groups
disproportionately affected.
4. Rising levels of depression, anxiety and other mental health impacts have been linked to COVID-19,
particularly for essential workers, those with heightened caring duties (especially women), racial/ethnic
minorities and other vulnerable groups.
5. In six of the most disruptive conflicts currently waging in the world today, major cities have been active
battlegrounds leading to immediate and long-term devastating impacts on urban health and future
development.
Policy points
1. When health is recognized and acted upon as a priority across all urban interventions, there are vital possibilities
to achieve multiple benefits for well-being and foster inclusive, resilient, and sustainable urban futures.
2. Ongoing disaggregated data collection is essential to reveal the true picture of multi-layered rapidly changing
urban health risks for effective policy formulation and action to ensure policymakers “leave no one behind.”
3. Challenges of health inequity—often rooted in geographic, political and socioeconomic exclusion—can

be tackled via place-based initiatives co-developed with residents to promote health in marginalized
neighbourhoods and support more equitable urban futures.
4. Expanding Universal Health Care is a key priority in advancing health for inclusive, resilient, and sustainable
urban futures as well as strengthening health system preparedness for a future of epidemics and pandemics.
5. Responsive, accountable local governments play a pivotal role in developing effective holistic place—based
interventions that can generate multiple co-benefits for health, inclusion and climate change mitigation.
212
Health in all its multifaceted dimensions has surged to the to racial divides, gendered discrimination, xenophobia and
forefront of public dialogue, especially discussions of cities, other sources of disadvantage. Known as “health inequities,”
in the last two years. But the reinvigorated movement for such differences in health outcomes are “not only
healthy cities to achieve the optimistic urban future scenario unnecessary and avoidable, but in addition, are considered
urgently needs multisectoral approaches extending far unfair and unjust.”8
beyond the health sector. Such wide-ranging approaches
are necessary because health is an essential component of Improved understanding of how multiple factors contribute
sustainable urbanization given its impact on and interrelation to urban health disparities at several levels and sites
with social, economic and environmental factors. Rather (including homes, workplaces and neighbourhoods) will be
than existing as a standalone priority, health can serve as a key to effective interventions that can avoid entrenching
catalyst that unifies several SDGs and generates multiple far- urban health inequities. Additionally, there is a crucial need
reaching benefits beyond the absence of disease. for ongoing, disaggregated data collection to understand
and address urban health inequalities. Findings on health
Indeed, health should not be so narrowly understood. The risks by residents themselves (so-called “citizen scientists”),
Constitution of the World Health Organization (WHO) including those in informal settlements, can help fill data
defines “health” broadly as “a state of complete physical, gaps while also informing effective, equitable interventions.
mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of
disease or infirmity.”1 More recently, WHO has championed The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated cities’ profound
the “healthy cities” global movement to inform city health inequalities, with racial/ethnic minorities, women,
governments of the important role of social, spatial and people with disabilities, residents of informal settlements,
physical factors in supporting health and well-being for all.2 precarious workers and other marginalized groups bearing
The approach also emphasizes the pivotal overarching role an especially heavy toll.9 In the wake of COVID-19, it will
of responsive, accountable local governance in supporting be essential to develop strategies that promote healthy
social determinants of health including fostering safety, urban futures while also fostering climate resilience, social
promoting social cohesion, enhancing living conditions and inclusion and more inclusive development pathways in order
creating access to decent work.3 to avoid the high damage urban future scenario.10 Promoting
health for sustainable urban futures will require a holistic
Improved access to healthcare; water, sanitation, and hygiene multisectoral approach to address the interrelated social,
(WASH); and other health-promoting infrastructure and economic, political, and environmental factors influencing
services are the necessary minimum components to support health in cities. Such interventions can simultaneously
well-being in urban areas. However, in the wake of present-day address the complex set of determinants of urban health as
challenges, health interventions for sustainable urban futures well as generate co-benefits toward these goals.
will need to incorporate considerations of climate change,
which poses the foremost contemporary urban health threat.4 This chapter will therefore focus on opportunities for
Climate-related health impacts will need to be addressed across generating multiple co-benefits for health, inclusion and
several sectors and levels, including at the home, workplace, climate change mitigation by placing health at the core of
neighbourhood, city, metropolitan and regional scales. urban interventions. This requires a holistic understanding
of the factors influencing health in cities as well as addressing
Analyses of rural and urban health data have often suggested the roots of health inequities. The question guiding the
there are better health outcomes in urban areas and that chapter is: How can cities effectively promote and secure
urban residents typically “enjoy better health on average than health for inclusive, resilient, and sustainable urban futures?
their rural counterparts.”5 However, when household wealth
is taken into account, the “urban advantage” in health often Section 7.1 illustrates the multilayered, rapidly changing
disappears.6 Based on recent data on children’s survival and nature of urban health risks and analyses data on the shifting
well-being from 77 low- and middle-income countries, the causes of mortality in urban areas. The section also examines
“poorest and most vulnerable urban children fare worse than how health outcomes can vary markedly based on race, gender,
their peers in rural areas.”7 disability, income levels, residence and other differences
within and between cities. It also discusses the intersectional
More generally, in many urban centres, the same health risks nature of urban health inequalities and the necessity of
are experienced and acted upon in starkly different ways due developing inclusive, contextually rooted strategies.
213
Section 7.2 considers recent innovative strategies for change on the interface between natural and human
addressing urban health inequities. The section presents habitats is linked to zoonotic diseases that pass from animals
place-based interventions being implemented in cities across to humans, such as COVID-19, Ebola, bird flu, H1N1 flu,
the world that are fostering equitable health and well-being Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), SARS and Zika.
such as telemedicine, “citizen science”, partnerships with This has led to a situation where one new infectious disease
civil society organizations, and urban redesign. appears in humans every four months.12 While HIV/AIDS is
not a zoonosis, it remains a key concern in cities globally
While health equity - promoting initiatives are necessarily (Box 7.1). Cities are often where HIV/AIDS prevalence rates
place-specific, the forward-looking section 7.3 reflects on are highest despite better services and active civil society
the overarching vision to create healthy cities and thus organizations addressing the epidemic.13
generate inclusive, resilient and sustainable urban futures.
The section identifies nine interrelated priorities: 1) the Even as the world was preoccupied with the COVID-19
“health in all policies” approach; 2) ongoing, disaggregated pandemic, several outbreaks of the Ebola virus were reported
data collection 3) developing holistic, place-based strategies; in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Guinea; major
4) pursuing climate and health co-benefits; 5) enhancing outbreaks of cholera struck Bangladesh, Yemen, Haiti,
universal health coverage and complementary social Niger and Nigeria in 2021;14 and Chikungunya and dengue
programmes; 6) strengthening health system preparedness; epidemics were confirmed in the Americas, Africa, Asia,
7) supporting healthy diets and active lifestyles; 8) enhancing Europe and Oceania.15 While COVID-19 recently heightened
health at the workplace; and 9) promoting mental health. public health awareness, the spread of communicable
The chapter concludes in section 7.4 with five lessons for diseases within unhygienic conditions has long been proven
policy to promote and secure health for inclusive, resilient historically, with those living in close contact to domestic
and sustainable urban futures. animals and without access to running water and separate
toilet facilities at heightened risk of infection.
7.1. Towards a Multilayered, Intersectional While disease has historically been the foremost urban health
Understanding of Urban Health threat, the 20th century saw public health improvements
that dramatically reduced disease risk and increased life
This section elaborates the multilayered, rapidly changing expectancy. Climate change is now the foremost urban health
nature of urban health risks and highlights how disadvantages threat leading to the high damage urban future scenario
linked to race, gender, disability, income levels, residence due to more frequent, intense and longer-lasting extreme
and other differences in urban areas generate intersectional weather events, particularly floods and heatwaves among
inequalities. To improve urban health effectively, policymakers
will require ongoing, disaggregated data collection with
attention to emerging inequalities and the diversity of the
urban context.
While the text will discuss recent data on urban health

risks, there are inevitably major gaps in our understanding
(especially in cities located in low- and middle-income
countries and for vulnerable groups) that remain a priority
for future research and interventions.
7.1.1 The multilayered nature of urban health risks

Long before the appearance of COVID-19, the world was
already on track to a pessimistic urban future scenario for
health. Studies had already confirmed how land-use change,
extraction activities and migration altered and fragmented
natural habitats, thus broadening the interface for human-
wildlife interactions and increasing the chances of novel Stay home banner during Vovid 19 Lockdown in Cape Town, South Africa. © Micha Serraf/
infectious diseases.11 The negative impacts of climate Shutterstock
214
Box 7.1: HIV/AIDS epidemic statistics as of 2020
Globally, approximately 37.7 million people were living with HIV in 2020. Of them, 27.5 million were accessing antiretroviral treatment.
Some 680,000 people died from AIDS-related illness in 2020. There are notable regional differences of people living with HIV/AIDS. In
sub-Saharan Africa, as many as 63 per cent of all new HIV infections in 2020 were amongst women and girls.
By contrast, outside of sub-Saharan Africa, 93 per cent of new infections occurred among key populations – such as sex workers and
their clients; gay men and other men who have sex with men; and transgender people – who together accounted for 65 per cent of HIV
infections globally.
Rates of HIV/AIDS are often elevated amongst marginalized groups such as racial/ethnic minorities, migrants and intravenous drug users.
Source: UNAIDS, 2021.
other disasters.16 These climate related risks translate to the built environment (e.g. dense buildings with limited
several significant urban health burdens that vary regionally reflectivity or greenspaces that promote cooling) and greater
and within cities (Chapter 5). heat from vehicular transport and buildings.21 More frequent
and intense heatwaves are resulting in major health burdens,
Climate change is already having major impacts on cities’ especially amongst the elderly, children and other vulnerable
WASH provision and food security via more intense, severe groups in urban areas.22 The 2020 Carbon Disclosure Project
or frequent flooding and droughts. Many coastal or low-lying survey of 670 cities (mainly in the North America and
cities are faced with rising sea levels and more intense flooding Europe) indicated heat-related illness as the most commonly
due to climate change.17 Flooding risks can be exacerbated reported health concern.23Annually, an estimated 7 million
people die prematurely due to air pollution (both indoor and
outdoor) while also causing a substantial reduction in years
Climate change is now the of healthy life. 24
foremost urban health threat
leading to the high damage urban Air pollution, which is inextricably linked to climate change,
future scenario due to more can penetrate the bloodstream and affect all organ systems.
frequent, intense and longer- Impacts can be either transitory (e.g. coughing) or long-term
lasting extreme weather events and irreversible, ranging from cardiovascular and respiratory
disease, lung and other cancers, asthma and other non-
by shortfalls in drainage, poor solid waste management and communicable diseases (NCDs), poor birth outcomes and
lack of all-weather roads.18 In turn, urban floods may result developmental challenges.25 Urban air pollution is often
in rising levels of waterborne illness; escalating food prices linked to motor vehicles and local fuel consumption (e.g.
and food insecurity; injuries, mortality, displacement and household heating), as well as to industrial activities, refuse
lost livelihoods amongst affected residents as well as broader burning and biomass consumption. In 2021, the WHO
economic burdens.19 With further impacts on health and substantially tightened its air quality guidelines for the first
livelihoods, climate change is contributing to droughts and time since 2005.26 Efforts to uphold the new guidelines would
urban water insecurity while interacting with population sharply reduce premature mortality and morbidity. If the
pressures, water governance challenges and competing water WHO’s new stringent standards are met in 1,000 European
uses. An estimated 25 per cent of cities globally already face cities with a total population of over 168 million people, an
water stress,20 and the challenges of water management will estimated 109,188 deaths could be prevented annually due
only increase with rising temperatures. to particulate matter (PM2.5) and another 57,030 premature
deaths due to nitrogen dioxide (Table 7.1).
Additionally, climate change worsens the urban heat island
effect, which has resulted in cities being warmer on average Additional health burdens linked to motorized vehicles are
than nearby rural areas attributed to transformations in road traffic injuries, which are the leading cause of mortality
215
Table 7.1: Potential reductions in premature mortality for European cities if air quality guidelines are met
PM25(95%Cl) Nitrogen dioxide (95%Cl)

2005 WHO Global Air Quality Guidelines 51213 (34036-68682) 900(0-2476)
2021 WHO Global Air Quality Guidelines 109188 (72846-145947) 57030(0-155257)
Lowest level in any city 124729 (83332-166535) 79435 (0-215165)
Table: Number of premature deaths that could be prevented in European cities if PM25 and nitrogen dioxide concentrations met guidelines or lowest levels
Source: Khomenko et al, 2021, p. 764.
in cities globally. Annually, an estimated 1.35 million cycling lanes or parks. The provision of these can encourage
people die from road traffic accidents, with accidents now active lifestyles, combat obesity, improve mental health and
the leading killer of people aged 5 to 29 years old.27 In reduce air pollution and NCDs.28
Thailand, an estimated 22,000 people die annually due to
road traffic injuries, many of whom live in cities. Highlighting Rapid urbanization, food system transformations (especially the
the multilayered nature of urban health risks, many highly consumption of ultra-processed foods with high levels of fat and
polluted cities also have limited access to safe walkways, sugar) and changing activity patterns towards more sedentary
lifestyles are leading to significant shifts in disease profiles
towards diet-related health risks.29 Recent findings indicate
Highlighting the multilayered that “unhealthy diets pose a greater risk to morbidity and
nature of urban health risks, many mortality than does unsafe sex, and alcohol, drug, and tobacco
highly polluted cities also have use combined,” while food systems are already pushing beyond
limited access to safe walkways, safe ecological boundaries.30 Meanwhile, there is a negative
cycling lanes or parks environmental footprint from industrial agriculture (particularly
Air pollution from Cars © NadyGinzburg/Shutterstock
216
meat and dairy production), which has been associated with “simultaneous manifestation of both undernutrition and
rising water scarcity, major reductions in biodiversity, and overweight/obesity.” Although patterns vary worldwide,
emissions of methane and other greenhouse gases.31 residents in the lowest income quintiles are increasingly
overweight and obese, including in Latin American and Asian
A growing urban health concern is the increase in mental cities.36 An estimated one-third of stunted children globally
related illnesses. Mental disorders are in the top 10 leading live in urban areas.37 Moreover, due to the prevailing gender-
causes of disease burdens globally, and the number of inequitable division of labour, women are usually tasked with
disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to mental providing and preparing food, which can impose major time
illness has increased sharply from 80.8 million in 1990 to and health burdens (especially in low-income areas without
125.3 million in 2019.32 Access to mental healthcare is adequate WASH and refrigeration).38 There is potentially a
especially rare in low- and middle-income countries, where vicious circle, where gendered burdens as well as income
there are few studies on past interventions.33 Rising levels poverty, unsanitary living conditions and malnutrition
of depression, anxiety and other mental health impacts have reinforce each other.
been linked to COVID-19, particularly for essential workers,
those with heightened caring duties (especially women), Kisumu, Kenya, offers a specific portrait of changing urban
racial/ethnic minorities and other vulnerable groups. health threats in the developing world. Malnutrition was the
leading behavioural cause of death in 1990, but malnutrition
7.1.2 The changing causes of mortality in cities fell to the fourth leading behavioural cause by 2019 (Figure
Longitudinal analysis has revealed the changing causes of 7.2). Unsafe sex, high blood pressure, air pollution, high
mortality in cities, underscoring the rising toll of NCDs in body mass and other dietary risks had grown increasingly
both low-income and higher-income cities. In 2019, the important in Kisumu by 2019. These changes underscore
three leading causes of death globally were cardiovascular the rising impacts of NCDs and air quality. There was also
diseases, including strokes and ischaemic heart disease (IHD), a heightened burden linked to HIV/AIDS, which rose starkly
respiratory diseases such as lower respiratory infections and from 14 per cent of Kisumu’s total deaths in 1990 to 26
chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and neonatal per cent in 2019. Confirming the ongoing dietary changes,
conditions, with 7 out of the 10 top causes due to NCDs Kisumu’s total deaths due to stroke and IHD increased from
(Figure 7.1). For the lowest-income nations, in 2019, the six per cent to eleven per cent from 1990–2019, while
two leading causes of death were neonatal conditions and protein-energy malnutrition deaths fell from eleven per cent
lower respiratory infections, followed by IHD and stroke; to less than four per cent of deaths.
diarrhoeal diseases and malaria were ranked fifth and sixth.
But across other regions, the leading cause of death is the Although Jakarta is a far larger and wealthier city than
same: ischaemic heart disease. Kisumu, Jakarta’s causes of mortality have also undergone a
comparable change with the rise of NCDs and falling levels
Higher consumption of fats and processed sugars alongside of malnutrition from 1990–2019. Malnutrition was Jakarta’s
reduced activity profiles are linked to increasing prevalence leading behavioural cause of mortality in 1990, but by 2019
of obesity, diabetes, hypertension, heart disease and diet- it had been replaced by high blood pressure, high body mass
related cancers that lead to premature mortality in urban and high fasting plasma glucose, issues which are all linked
areas.34 Urban diets and activity patterns are strongly shaped to changing diets (Figure 7.3). In 2019, stroke and IHD each
by the built environment and city planning decisions. For comprised up to 16 per cent of total deaths in Jakarta, with
example, the pessimistic scenario for urban futures is already another 8 per cent due to diabetes.
a reality for low-income urban residents who live in so-called
“food swamps” or “food deserts.” In food swamps, there is an Meanwhile, detailed data from London reveals the shared
abundance of unhealthy food for sale from fast food outlets challenge of NCDs across low- and high-income areas
and convenience stores. Food deserts have limited access to (Figure 7.4). In 2019, IHD, stroke and COPD were among
grocery stores that sell fresh produce or other sources of the leading causes of death in both London’s high-income
affordable, healthy foods.35 boroughs of Kensington and Chelsea as well as the poorer
Tower Hamlets. However, deaths linked to drugs, self-harm,
As a result of these socio-spatial patterns that inhibit healthy Alzheimer’s and other factors still differed between the two
diets, some urban residents suffer from a complex challenge boroughs.
known as the double burden of malnutrition, defined as the
217
Figure 7.1: Leading global causes of death (2000 and 2019)
Leading causes of death globally Leading causes of death in low income countries
2000 2019 2000 2019

1. Ischaemic heart disease 1.Neonatal conditions
2. Stroke 2. Lower respiratory infections
3. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 3. Ischaemic heart disease
4. Lower respiratory infections 4. Stroke
5.Neonatal conditions 5. Diarrhoeal diseases
6. Trachea,bronchus,lung cancer 6. Malaria
7. Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias 7. Road injury
8. Diarrhoeal diseases 8. Tuberculosis
9. Diabetes mellitus 9. HIV/AIDS
10. Kidney diseases 10. Cirrhosis of the liver
0 2 4 6 8 10 0 200,000 400,000 600,000

Number of deaths (in millions) Number of deaths
Noncommunicable Communicable Injuries Noncommunicable Communicable Injuries
Leading causes of death in upper-middle-income countries Leading causes of death in high-income countries
2000 2019
2000 2019
1. Ischaemic heart disease
1. Ischaemic heart disease
2. Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias

2. Stroke
3. Stroke
3. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
4. Trachea,bronchus,lung cancers
4. Trachea,bronchus,lung cancer
5. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

5. Lower respiratory infections
6. Lower respiratory infections

6. Diabetes mellitus
7. Hypertensive heart disease 7. Colon and rectum cancers
8. Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias 8. Kidney diseases
9. Diabetes mellitus 9. Hypertensive heart disease
10. Kidney diseases 10. Diabetes mellitus
0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3
Number of deaths (in millions) Number of deaths (in millions)

Noncommunicable Communicable Injuries Noncommunicable Communicable Injuries
Source: WHO, 2020.
218
Figure 7.2: Leading behavioural causes of mortality in 1990 and 2019 in Kisumu, Kenya (percentage of total deaths by risk
factor)
Kisumu,Both sexes,all ages, 1990 Kisumu,Both sexes,all ages, 2019
Malnutrition Unsafe sex

Unsafe sex High blood pressure
Air pollution Air pollution
WaSH Malnutrition
High blood pressure High body-mass index
Tobacco High fasting plasma glucose
Alcohol use Dietary risks
Dietary risks Alcohol use HIV/AIDS & STIs
High fasting plasma glucose Respiratory infections & TB

Tobacco
Enteric infections
High body-mass index WaSH
NTDs & malaria
Kidney dysfunction Intimate partner violence
Other infectious
Intimate partner violence Kidney dysfunction Maternal & neonatal
Occupational risks
Drug use Nutritional deficiencies
High LDL Neoplasms
High LDL
Drug use Cardiovascular diseases
Occupational risks
Other environmental Chronic respiratory
Other environmental
Non-optimal temperature Digestive diseases
Non-optimal temperature
Neurological disorders
Low bone mineral density
Low bone mineral density Mental disorders
Low physical activity
Low physical activity
Childhood sexual abuse and bullying
Childhood sexual
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% abuse and bullying
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Percent of total deaths Percent of total deaths
Source: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, 2022
Street food vendors in Jakarta, Indonesia. © CatwalkPhotos/Shutterstock
219
Figure 7.3: Leading behavioural causes of mortality in 1990 and 2019 in Jakarta, Indonesia (percentage of total deaths by
risk factor)
Jakarta,Both sexes,all ages, 1990 Jakarta,Both sexes,all ages, 2019
High blood pressure High blood pressure

Dietary risks High body-mass index
Tobacco
High fasting plasma glucose
Air pollution
Tobacco
WaSH
Dietary risks
High fasting plasma glucose
Air pollution HIV/AIDS & STIs
Malnutrition
High LDL Respiratory infections & TB
High LDL
Kidney dysfunction
High body-mass index Enteric infections
Malnutrition
Occupational risks
WaSH
NTDs & malaria
Kidney dysfunction
Occupational risks Other infectious
Alcohol use
Non-optimal temperature Low physical activity Maternal & neonatal
Low physical activity Non-optimal temperature Nutritional deficiencies
Unsafe sex Alcohol use
Neoplasms
Other environmental Unsafe sex
Drug use Cardiovascular diseases
Drug use
Low bone mineral density Other environmental Chronic respiratory
Childhood sexual abuse and bullying Low bone mineral density Digestive diseases
Intimate partner violence Intimate partner violence Neurological disorders
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Childhood sexual abuse
and bullying Mental disorders
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Percent of total deaths
Percent of total deaths
Source: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, 2022.
Slums of Patna, Bihar state, India. © Yury Birukov/Shutterstock
220
Figure 7.4: Causes of death in 2019 for London’s Borough of Kensington and Chelsea (wealthy neighbourhood) and Borough
of Tower Hamlets (poorer neighbourhood)
Kensington and Chelsea

Both sexes,All ages,2019,Death attributable to all risk factors
Stroke Lung C LRI
Stomach C
IHD Colorect C
Urinary
Other MN
Breast C Liver C Esophag C
Leukemia Brain C Ovary C Bladder C
Kidney C
HTN HD CMP A Fib Prostate C
Valvular Pancreas C
Myeloma Melanoma
HIV
Oth Cardio Aort An Lymphoma
PAD Uterus C Skin C Mesothel Road Inj
Cirrhosis Falls
COPD ILD
Oth MSK
Self harm
Upper digest Ileus Gall Bile
Oth Digest IBD
Alzheimer’s Parkinson’s
Bac skin Drugs
Tower Hamlets
Both sexes,All ages,2019,Death attributable to all risk factors
IHD Stroke Lung C Colorect C LRI
Stomach C
Neonatal
Urinary
Breast C Liver C Esophag C
Leukemia Brain C Ovary C Bladder C Kidney C
HTN HD CMP A Fib Valvular Pancreas C Prostate C HIV

Myeloma Melanoma
Oth Cardio Aort An Lymphoma
PAD Mesothel Falls
Road Inj
Cirrhosis
COPD ILD Upper digest Ileus Gall Bile
Self harm
Pancreatit IBD
Fire
Alzheimer’s Parkinson’s
Drugs Alcohol
Deaths attributable to risk Deaths not attributable to risk
Source: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, 2022.
7.1.3 An intersectional view of urban health us on a path to the pessimistic or even high damage urban
inequities future scenario.
In many urban centres, the same health risks are experienced
and acted upon in starkly different ways. For instance, racial An intersectional view can uncover how factors such as race,
discrimination and segregation often negatively affect health gender, disability, sexuality and socioeconomic status, among
by reducing minority groups’ access to healthcare while others, may interact to shape life experiences (e.g. access
heightening the concentration of poverty and exposure to to healthcare, livelihoods, and housing) and to heighten
environmental hazards.39 Defined as “health inequities,” such health risks or deepen disadvantages in cities. Intersectional
differences in health outcomes are “not only unnecessary analyses can help to understand “diverse individuals and
and avoidable, but in addition, are considered unfair and social groups, [who] experience the intersection of different
unjust.”40 If left unchecked, these health inequities will lead structural drivers of exclusion in unique and situated ways.”41
221
As intersectionality remains a nascent area of urban health struggle to find adequate healthcare, which is linked both to
research, this sub-section offers illustrative findings and racism and transphobia. Although some respondents sought
seeks to motivate future health-promoting interventions that healthcare providers that cater for LGBTQI residents, they
truly leave no one behind. A gender-sensitive intersectional also were concerned by these providers’ racism.43
approach may spark interventions with marginalized groups
that better meet their healthcare needs. This approach can Rich and poor city dwellers in many low- and middle-income
also help to amplify their voice in decision-making. countries may differ markedly in their levels of infectious
diseases and in rates of maternal and child mortality.44 The
Individual city dwellers’ health risks and outcomes are poor are typically compelled to live in the least developed
influenced by a complex array of factors. Many cities areas of a city, often places that are poorly integrated to the
have entrenched differences in health outcome linked to urban fabric, where dilapidated environments contribute
socioeconomic, environmental and political factors that to worse health outcomes and greater risk of premature
together contribute to complex urban disadvantages. For deaths. This phenomenon is known as the urban health
instance, studies suggest that black and other racial minorities divide. According to a review comparing tuberculosis rates
experience poorer health outcomes throughout the course in slums to national prevalence rates, slum dwellers may be
of their lives. Low-income black women in Brazilian cities five times more likely to have this disease,45 which is often
may face especially acute challenges in accessing healthcare; linked to overcrowded shelter alongside minimal access to
struggle to combine caring duties with lengthy commute affordable, high-quality healthcare.46 Increasingly, there
times and precarious, low-paid employment; and grapple are also major disparities within cities in the incidence of
with racial discrimination and intergenerational poverty.42 non-communicable diseases.47 Although patterns vary
Meanwhile, transgender people of colour in Chicago often worldwide, residents in the lowest income quintiles in Latin
America and Asian cities exhibit higher incidences of the
double burden of malnutrition.
A gender-sensitive intersectional approach may Disparities in measles vaccination rates likewise illustrate
spark interventions with marginalized groups the urban health divides (Figure 7.5). Inequitable access to
that better meet their healthcare needs vaccines was especially profound in Haiti, where in 2017,
Figure 7.5: Urban inequalities in measles vaccination rates as shown through differences between non-slum urban areas
and slums (in absolute per cent) for children aged 12–23 months
20.9
18.2 18.1 17.6 17.6 17.0
14.3
12.9 12.6
11.9
10.6 11.2
10.4 9.9 9.6
7.8 8.0 8.6
6.9 6.8 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.3 7.3
5.7 5.4
4.6 4.4 4.4 4.4
3.4 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.4
1.9 1.7 2.3
1.3
0.0 0.5
-0.6
-2.3
Indonesia 2002
Indonesia 2007
Indonesia 2012
Indonesia 2017
Philippines 2003
Philippines 2008
Philippines 2013
Philippines 2017
Colombia 2000
Colombia 2012
Haiti 2000
Haiti 2006
Haiti 2012
Haiti 2017
Peru 2000
Peru 2006
Peru 2008
Peru 2009
Peru 2011
Peru 2012
Bangladesh 2004
Bangladesh 2007
Bangladesh 2011
Bangladesh 2014
Bangladesh 2018
India 2006
India 2016
Nepal 2001
Nepal 2006
Nepal 2012
Nepal 2016
Pakistan 2006
Pakistan 2012
Pakistan 2018
Benin 2001
Benin 2006
Benin 2012
Benin 2018
Burkina Faso 2003
Burkina Faso 2010
Cameroon 2004
Cameroon 2011
Cameroon 2018
DRC 2007
DRC 2014
Source: UN-Habitat, 2021i.
222
48.2 per cent of slum dwellers were vaccinated compared to facilities rose from 74.8 per cent to 92.5 per cent over the
79.1 per cent of non-slum urban residents (a difference of same period. Notably, Filipino mothers’ levels of access to
20.9 per cent). Promisingly, the gap in measles vaccination health facilities in 2017 were far higher in Manila, where
rates for India fell from 2006 to 2016 (from 17.6 per cent nearly 100 per cent of women gave birth in health facilities
to 7.5 per cent) as rates in India’s slums rose from 67 per (across slum and non-slum areas).
cent to 80.2 per cent and those in non-slum urban areas rose
slightly from 84.6 per cent to 87.7 per cent. Other findings on urban child nutrition have uncovered
enduring inequalities, even as there can be some progress
Access to skilled birth attendance can again vary markedly over time. As seen in Figure 7.7, in Bangladesh from 2004 to
between and within cities, as well as over time (Figure 7.6). 2018, levels of child stunting in slums fell almost by half from
From 2003 to 2017, Filipino women in slums increasingly 44.2 per cent to 23.5 per cent, although this improvement
gave birth in a health facility (rising from 40.3 per cent to was still double the levels of stunting in non-slum urban
79.3 per cent), but this rate remained far below the levels areas (where levels declined from 17.1 per cent to 11.7 per
of women in non-slum urban areas, whose access to health cent over the same period).
Figure 7.6: Skilled birth attendance in the Philippines: percentage of births with skilled health personnel in all urban slum
areas, all non-slum urban areas, Manila slum areas and Manila non-slum areas (2003–2017)
98.3 99.3
98.8 99.5 98.0 96.2
94.1 94.6 90.9 91.8 92.3
85.9 87.9 88.2
78.2
66.8
2003 2008 2013 2017
Slum Non-slum Manila slum Manila non-slum
Figure 7.7: Child stunting in Bangladesh comparing all urban slum areas, all non-slum urban areas, Dhaka slum areas and
Dhaka non-slum areas (2004–2018) based on percentage of children aged 0–59 months who are below minus two standard
deviations from median height-for-age
44.2 47.1
36.2 37.7
32.2 31.4 31.3 31.2
21.1 23.3 23.5 20.6
17.1 17.6 14.9 13.9
11.6 8.5 11.7 11.3
2004 2007 2011 2014 2018
Urban slum Urban non-slum Dhaka slum Dhaka non-slum

223
Cities are increasingly home to displaced populations

including refugees, economic migrants and internally The use of heavy weaponry in towns and cities
displaced people, whose health challenges remain poorly inevitably leads to heavier civilian casualties
understood. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine triggered yet
another global refugee crisis as millions of Ukrainians fled. of hospitals, flight of healthcare workers as well as the
Globally, an estimated 60 per cent of refugees reside in cities interruption of child vaccination and communicable disease
(rather than in refugee camps or rural areas), with many surveillance programmes. These damaged infrastructure
living in informal settlements or other urban areas with low- and health systems require intense time and resource
quality shelter.48 Forcibly displaced residents in cities may investments to rebuild, thus creating prolonged instabilities
face xenophobia or other discrimination; language barriers and intractable poverty as resources are diverted away from
and employment restrictions (as if they live refugee camps, development.51 The health impacts disproportionately affect
they are often expected to remain there); and limited access women and children with over 60 per cent of preventable
to healthcare, mental health services or other much-needed maternal deaths and 45 per cent of neonatal deaths estimated
assistance to cope with trauma.49 to occur in these fragile conflict burdened settings. 52
Cities are increasingly home to

displaced populations including
refugees, economic migrants
and internally displaced people,
whose health challenges remain
poorly understood
Another growing concern that could lead to the high damage

scenario for urban futures is the shift of battlegrounds to urban
environments (Box 7.2). While open field battle away from
human settlements dominated warfare for centuries, World
War II saw modern warfare fight over towns and cities. The
use of heavy weaponry in towns and cities inevitably leads to
heavier civilian casualties as well as the destruction of basic
infrastructure that is vital for the functioning and basic health of
communities such as water, sanitation, gas and electricity lines,
leaving fragile communities vulnerable to infectious diseases.50
The resulting disruptions from armed conflicts weaken health

systems in multiple ways including the physical destruction Damaged residential building, Kyiv, Ukraine © Drop of Light/Shutterstock
Box 7.2: Armed conflicts worsen health in cities
In six of the most disruptive conflicts currently waging in the world today, major cities have been active battlegrounds: Kabul in
Afghanistan; Adwa, Bora, Dessie and Kombolcha in Ethiopia; Aleppo, Dier, Ezzour and Damascus in Syria; Mariupol and Kharkiv in
Ukraine; and Sanaa and Aden in Yemen. There is evidence of subsequent devastating effects on health. For instance, Yemen recorded
the world’s worst cholera outbreak of the twenty-first century between 2015 and 2017 with over 2 million identified cases. There have
also been spikes of diarrhoea in Syrian cities during periods of intense violence. In the Ethiopian region of Tigray, it is estimated that
healthcare workers did not provide any child vaccinations nor deliver any antenatal or postnatal care in the first 90 days of conflict.
With nearly two decades at war, Afghanistan experiences cyclical outbreaks of measles, with regular spikes reported in Kabul.
Source: IRRC, 2022; Gesesew et al, 2022; WHO, 2022e.
224
Maternity hospital in Kolonyi, Uganda. © Dennis Wegewijs/shutterstock
Finally, broader socioeconomic trends contributing to urban can significantly shape health outcomes. Meanwhile, at the
health inequalities may include globalization, market-led individual level, a gender-sensitive, intersectional approach
policy reforms and distribution of assets that in turn influ- can help develop tailored strategies to tackle these complex
ence urban service provision and economic development sources of disadvantage. Urban decisionmakers can draw on
trajectories (Figure 7.8). At the urban level, access to infra- community assets and develop inclusive, context-specific
structure, service provision, and city planning decisions strategies to address the drivers of urban health divides
(linked to inclusive or exclusionary forms of governance) across several scales.
Figure 7.8: Framework on intersecting, multi-level urban health inequities: key factors from global to city and individual
scales
Ecological &other Zoonotic &other emerging diseases(across scales) Forced displacement (across scales)
environmental factors
(across scales) Climate change & disasters (across scales)
Socially produced and intersecting axes of inequality
Global cultural,political National cultural,political City structure & processes Differential exposure
&economic processes &economic processes • Local governance,laws & &vulnerability to urban
living conditions Individual assets
• Global financial flows • Democratic processes,laws policies Urban health inequities
• Global trade & production & policies • City planning • Built environment & vulnerabilities
networks • Income, poverty, debt, • Municipal services • Housing - Knowledge
• Distribution of wealth,land employment and work • Density,migration & • Transportation -Behaviors
&other assets (across scales) conditions demographic trends (across infrastructure -Life course accumulation
• Conflict and insecurity (across • Private sector: political scales) • Air/water quality -Genetics & epigenetics
scales) influence & markets • Private markets (e.g • Greenspace
• Colonial legacies&other • Public sector spending & housing,labour) • Social infrastructure
histories of racism,exclusion & regulation (welfare state): edu • Socio-spatial segregation • Health and social services
discrimination (across scales) cation,migration,health,enviro • Food security
nment etc. Protective factors & assets
• Access to healthcare & social protection
• Social networks & social cohesion
• Civil society & grassroots organizations
• Inclusive local & national governance
(gender, class, racialization, ability, citizenship,etc)
Global Geographic/Governance scale Individual/Molecular
Source: Adapted from Brisbois et al, 2019.
225
7.1.4 Slum health or cost barriers) and instead may rely on polluting solid
The importance of addressing intersectional disadvantages fuels or hazardous illegal electricity connections.60 Tenure
is especially clear in informal settlements, where residents insecurity in Mumbai is associated with worse health
often face hazardous shelter, heightened vulnerabilities outcomes: residents of non-notified slums (with greater
to disasters and multiple social, economic and political tenure insecurity than Mumbai’s notified slums) had
exclusions. Residents of informal settlements typically poorer child health and adult nutrition outcomes, likely
encounter environmental health risks linked to inadequate due to curtailed access to services and infrastructure with
living conditions (e.g. low-quality housing, unclean energy deeper roots in slum dwellers’ political marginalization.61
and unsafe WASH) that contribute to elevated risks of Residents of informal settlements may also face heightened
communicable diseases including tuberculosis, dengue, levels of HIV/AIDS, as well as injuries due to road traffic
cholera and other waterborne illnesses.53 For slum dwellers, and interpersonal violence, although such risks vary widely
the high damage and even pessimistic scenarios for urban between and within these neighbourhoods.62
futures could lead to catastrophic health outcomes.
Attention to gender, age, disability and other differences
Furthermore, informal settlements are often highly vulnerable is crucial to understand health vulnerabilities in informal
to climate change and consequent extreme weather events settlements. Inadequate infrastructure and services
as a result of low-quality shelter and infrastructure, risky provision often has gender-inequitable impacts. Due to
locations (e.g. floodplains, steep slopes), and meagre access gendered division of labour, women in informal settlements,
to emergency services.54 These vulnerabilities can result in who are often tasked with utilizing fuels to cook, are at an
heightened “everyday” risks as well as small-scale and large- elevated risk of respiratory and cardiovascular disease due to
scale disasters that often contribute to communicable disease lack of access to clean energy.63 Inadequate sanitation has
outbreaks and to deepening poverty.55 With limited incomes, often disproportionately affected women and girls. Women
low-quality housing and few physical assets, residents and girls in African and Asian informal settlements often
of informal settlements often struggle to recover from walk to public toilets at night-time in poorly lit, insecure
disasters or everyday risks.56 Ongoing floods, fires or other settlements (thereby risking rape or assault), or else they
disasters may lead to a vicious circle of poverty and ill-health. must resort to degrading, improvised solutions such as
According to research in Niamey, Niger, repeated small plastic bags at home.64
disasters can have a so-called “erosive effect” on household
assets in informal settlements.57 Underscoring the need for Children are especially susceptible to communicable
climate justice, low-income urban residents cumulatively diseases including pneumonia and diarrhoea; the ensuing
contribute the least to greenhouse gas emissions but often care burdens typically fall disproportionately on their
lack the capacities to adapt effectively and require additional mothers, who in the absence of adequate WASH often
support58 (see Chapter 5). struggle with rising stress, mental health impacts and lost
earnings.65 Along with missed schooling, repeated outbreaks
Tenure insecurity in slums contributes to poor health of childhood diarrhoea can contribute to malnutrition,
outcomes and exclusions via various pathways, including
burdens linked to evictions and highly inadequate
infrastructure provision. Evictions may result in disrupted
Underscoring the need for climate justice, low-
livelihoods and social networks, escalating stress and
income urban residents cumulatively contribute
mental illness, and lost physical assets (all linked to rising
the least to greenhouse gas emissions but often
poverty and exclusion), as well as injuries or even deaths.59
lack the capacities to adapt effectively
Many official agencies will not invest in areas with unclear
land ownership, and in turn, tenure insecurity may lead
to poorer health outcomes because of limited access to long-term cognitive impairments and reduced productivity
WASH, electricity or other services and infrastructure. in adulthood.66 Holistic WASH solutions are essential to
Moreover, electricity access in informal settlements is support women and other vulnerable groups including the
often influenced by tenure security: although many cities elderly and people with disabilities (PWDs), especially in
have higher overall levels of power access than rural areas, areas where the environment and its attendant risk and
slum dwellers may be unable to access legal electricity (due harms leads to worse health outcomes and greater risk of
to tenure insecurity, onerous registration processes and/ premature deaths.
226
Disaggregated data even within a small urban locale can offer to just 7.2 per cent of women’s deaths. Injury patterns were
insights into the gendered experience of urban health threats again highly gendered: assault was the leading cause of
in slums. According to surveys in two Nairobi informal men’s injury mortality (58 per cent), as compared to 30 per
settlements, Korogocho and Viwandani, with about 2,500 cent amongst women’s injury deaths. Another 30 per cent of
adults (aged 15 and older), HIV/AIDS was the cause of 24.5 women’s deaths were caused by fire, as compared to 12 per
per cent of women’s deaths but just 12.3 per cent of men’s cent of men (likely due to gendered differences in cooking),
deaths from 2002–2012 (Figure 7.9).67 Meanwhile, over 30 and women were twice as likely to die from intentional self-
per cent of men’s deaths were due to injuries as compared harm as men (10 per cent vs. 5 per cent).
Figure 7.9: Causes of injury deaths among adults by sex (aged 15 and older) in two of Nairobi’s informal settlements
(January 2003–December 2012, N=2,464)
Total 20 3 2 14 1 5 54
Males 21 2 2 12 1 5 58
Females 19 9 30 1 10 30
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Road traffic accident Assault Exposure to smoke/fire/flame Fall Poisoning/ Noxious substance Drowning and/or submersion
Intentional self-harm
Source: Mberu et al, 2015.
Street in Kibera slum, Nairobi, Kenya. © Renatas Repcinskas/Shutterstock
227
7.2 Advancing Urban Health Equity COVID-19 to provide mental health services (e.g. in Nigeria,
Indonesia) including call-in lines tailored to healthcare
This section considers recent promising strategies for addressing workers in the Maldives and South Africa, or for South Asian
urban health inequities considering the multiple pathways migrants in Gulf countries.68 In Karachi (Pakistan), the Aga
of deprivations and exclusions that contribute to differential Khan University initiated free, online training sessions in
health outcomes. The fundamental causes of health inequities parent-mediated therapy to support children with disabilities
are found in social, political and economic conditions. Action that was available nationwide.69
to address these underlying causes and tackling the pathways
through which they influence health outcomes can substantially Telemedicine was also used to support older persons and
help to promote equitable well-being in cities and arrive at the people with dementia during the pandemic and bridge the
optimistic scenario for urban futures. unequal access to healthcare in Gangdong-gu, South Korea
(Box 7.3).
Health inequities eliminate the Drawing upon the 2014 Ebola response, Liberia’s mHero
so-called “urban advantage” communication system that is operated on a basic talk-and-
as a health crisis cuts text pattern (no smartphone needed) was used to update
through economic, social and healthcare workers about COVID-19 outbreaks. Likewise,
geographical barriers within one month after its first reported COVID-19 case
on 14 March 2020, Rwanda was able to deploy the use
The COVID-19 pandemic brought to the fore the urgency of drones in the city of Kigali and the secondary cities of
of addressing urban health inequities. Health crises have Rubavu and Rusizi targeting densely populated, hard-to-reach
historically been pivotal moments of transformation for areas that presented high-risk nodes in the management of
urban areas. Health inequities eliminate the so-called “urban the pandemic. The country coordinated a multi-sectoral
advantage” as a health crisis cuts through economic, social response that leveraged technology alongside healthcare
and geographical barriers. It therefore follows that enhancing worker deployment in targeted hotspots.70 The ability of
equitable access to healthcare, as well as the social, spatial Rwanda to leverage technology for effective interventions
and physical factors that promote equitable urban health
outcomes, should be a priority of urban planning for
sustainable urban futures.
Box 7.3: Using technology to bridge access to
7.2.1 Leveraging technology for inclusive dementia care in Gangdong-du City, Republic of
healthcare Korea
Novel strategies are needed to promote accessible, high-
quality healthcare, and cities are increasingly adopting ICT- Gangdong-gu, a municipality on the outskirts of Seoul,
enabled strategies to support accessibility and inclusivity. has a longstanding commitment to serving people with
Research on telemedicine (the provision of medical care via dementia, including a safe village and public guardianship
telecommunication technology) has found several benefits, for people with dementia. During COVID-19, the Centre for
including for patients with NCDs. According to evidence Dementia initiated remote clinical assessments by staff
from the United States, telemedicine has improved health who offered technical support and expanded access to
outcomes for patients with stroke and heart failure, as well web- and phone-based consultations (both for families and
as helping to manage diabetes and other chronic conditions. dementia patients). Gangdong-gu also offered dementia
classes online, cognitive stimulation kits and tailored
Recently, COVID-19 has accelerated the uptake of digital case management for addressing needs such as nutrition,
technologies, and there are encouraging examples of how housing, and emotional support throughout the pandemic.
technology was leveraged to ensure that no one was left Using disaggregated data, the municipality was able to
behind. Rising levels of depression, anxiety and other mental identify 261 people living alone and/or on basic incomes,
health impacts have been linked to COVID-19, including for which enabled tailored case management that considered
key workers, those with heightened caring duties (especially emotional and daily living support.
women), racial/ethnic minorities and other vulnerable Source: WHO, 2021d.
groups. Many countries have enhanced helplines during
228
during the pandemic enabled the capital to remain on course

in implementing its Kigali Master Plan 2050 that aspires for There is an essential need for ongoing,
a green, efficient, inclusive, vibrant and productive city.71 disaggregated data collection with attention to
multiple disadvantages to ensure that no one
There is urgent need, however, to overcome the digital is left behind
divide facing disadvantaged populations, and few studies
have considered how telemedicine can reach persons Members of the global network Shack/Slum Dwellers
with disabilities or other excluded urban groups (Chapter International (SDI) have gathered in-depth findings on
9).72 Sometimes the anonymity of mobile consultin can shelter provision, access to services and other determinants
be beneficial in discussing sensitive topics, but there of health in their own neighbourhoods.77 SDI’s informal
are nevertheless concerns around lack of regulation, settlement profiles and mapping exercises have explored
affordability, appropriateness and privacy.73 There are residents’ access to housing, WASH, electricity, solid waste
again concerns about inclusion in “smart cities” strategies, management, health clinics and fire stations (if available),
which may overlook health equity concerns.74 While digital alongside local demographics, eviction threats and locational
solutions are a key element of healthy urban futures, these hazards (e.g. recent experiences of natural disasters). These
will need to be combined with other innovative strategies to surveys have provided much-needed disaggregated findings
reach vulnerable groups. and fostered effective health promotion strategies when
acted upon.
7.2.2 Strengthening collaboration with community
organizations 7.2.3 Strengthening community health workers
There is an essential need for ongoing, disaggregated data In many cities, community health workers (CHWs) are
collection with attention to multiple disadvantages to ensure essential service providers of inclusive health systems,
that no one is left behind.75 However, there may be limited data but in urban settings policymakers do not recognize their
available for marginalized residents including the homeless, contributions as much as those in rural areas. Where
refugees and residents of informal settlements who may be adequately supported in skills and resources, CHWs play
excluded in census taking or other official data.76 Findings a central role in urban health equity, including promotion
on health risks by residents themselves, including those in of maternal and child health, enhancing health literacy and
informal settlements, can help to fill data gaps while also addressing both NCDs and communicable diseases.78 In
informing effective place-based interventions. This “citizen cities in low- and middle-income countries, CHWs typically
science” is an essential complement to official data sources. provide health education, outreach, and direct service
Community-led data collection in Mombasa’s informal settlements. © SDI Kenya
229
provision such as home visits. During COVID-19, CHWs fewer emergency department visits and were more likely to
were essential in promoting community sensitization and be housed at 18–24 months; it remains unclear whether the
contact tracing, providing referrals and assisting patients in improved health outcomes will be sustained over the longer
self-isolation.79 In Ethiopia, CHWs conducted outreach via term. It is also vital to develop integrated initiatives that
digital megaphones and audio messages in local languages; extend beyond improving housing and healthcare access to
Viet Nam created a telemedicine platform to reduce CHWs’ support mental health, access to social services and combat
exposure to patients while still raising public awareness about the stigma surrounding homelessness.
COVID-19.80 To build CHWs’ capacities and strengthen their
future contributions, policymakers will need to enhance
their training in digital and other skills, offer significantly “Housing first” recognizes the
improved compensation and benefits (e.g. support with importance of providing a safe,
housing, transport, and PPE), and provide prizes or other secure dwelling before tackling
recognition.81 With women comprising the majority of health and other challenges of
CHWs, it will be fundamental to support the empowerment homeless people
of these women and enhance the profile of these crucial but
unsung agents of inclusion and change. Urban safety is another social determinant of health. In Cape
Town, South Africa, the Violence Prevention through Urban
7.2.4 Addressing social and environmental Upgrading (VPUU) initiative has helped de-escalate violence
determinants of health in the township of Khayelitsha. VPUU has prioritized youth
Promising initiatives that blend strategies for enhancing employment, vigorous community participation and social
urban built environments and upgrading informal inclusion; it also utilized urban design strategies to promote
settlements with other social goals have improved several passive surveillance and create integrated community
health outcomes among vulnerable groups while also centres.85 By combining improvements in infrastructure
promoting climate resilience, poverty reduction, and youth with social programmes and strong local participation, this
livelihoods. Improving access to affordable adequate housing, holistic initiative led to a 34 per cent reduction in exposure
WASH, roads and drainages and other vital infrastructure can to interpersonal violence from 2013–2015.86
significantly reduce the risks of disasters and communicable
disease transmission, while also enhancing access to Reliable street lighting can generate several gains in health,
healthcare and emergency services. Furthermore, equitable safety and livelihoods by extending the amount of time that
upgrading partnerships with strong grassroots participation local businesses can operate in the evening, with particular
can improve the social determinants of health such as safety, benefits for women working from home and others working
social cohesion, and empowerment. within informal settlements.87 In over 40 cities in Brazil, the
Efficient Community Programme has enhanced access to
Adequate housing is considered key in promoting health and fluorescent lamps and energy-efficient refrigerators, as well
building resilience to systemic shocks.82 People experiencing as supporting behavioural change using local youth as agents
homelessness often face barriers to accessing healthcare to enhance outreach and uptake in low-income areas.88
and several interrelated disadvantages, such as racial or Chilean cities and Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, have
gender-based discrimination, behavioural health issues supported climate resilience through low-carbon building
and substance abuse. Additionally, homeless populations designs (including incremental construction that supports
are especially exposed to extreme weather events, and affordability), and selective relocation away from flood-prone
their physical and mental health is likely to be affected by areas.89
climate change.83 The policy approach known as “housing
first” recognizes the importance of providing a safe, secure Climate change mitigation schemes can improve the social
dwelling before tackling health and other challenges of determinants of health. Cape Town retrofitted 2,300 houses
homeless people. Several European and North American with solar water heating and roof insulation as part of a low-
cities have adopted this policy with initiatives to provide income housing project funded by the Clean Development
rapid housing but, importantly, not requiring abstinence Mechanism, a United Nations carbon offset scheme.90 In
from substance use. Findings suggest that this approach addition to lowering emissions, this project has reduced poverty
may improve health in the short term.84 Compared to the by lowering heating expenditures, improved respiratory health
control group, participants in housing first programmes had outcomes by adding home insulation and provided on-the-job
230
training to local residents who implemented the retrofits.91 disaster resilience by providing all-weather paths in informal
In Richmond, US, the city’s climate action plan provided settlements (Figure 7.10). For instance, Nairobi’s large-
free or subsidized solar power and home energy efficiency scale upgrading programme in Mukuru known as a Special
programmes; the related programme RichmondBUILD trained Planning Area (SPA) has created inclusive transport solutions
young people (often ex-offenders) in building trade skills to thanks to strong collaborations between local officials,
install the new solar and home energy equipment.92 More academics, civil society and community residents.94 For
generally, cooler housing designs can reduce heat stress and the upgraded transport network, the widest road will be
lower energy consumption, with particular benefits for older 12 meters rather than 48 meters (as per Kenyan planning
persons, children, people with pre-existing health conditions standards for roads), thus displacing far fewer residents than
and other vulnerable groups.93 would have occurred if using conventional roads. At the
same time, the SPA has prioritized improving non-motorized
Meanwhile, efforts to promote cycling and pedestrianization transport (an appropriate choice as most Mukuru residents
can support access to work or education, improve local are pedestrians), which also fosters healthy and low-carbon
economies due to enhanced footfall, and may enhance mobility patterns.
Figure 7.10: Health, climate and livelihood/asset benefits of upgrading informal settlements
Source: Diagram by S. Ray in Sverdlik et al, 2019, C40/Cities Alliance.
231
7.2.5 Holistic age-friendly strategies also benefited from cross-sectoral collaboration within the
Age-friendly strategies are increasingly important in cities city council.
with sizable populations of older persons, and integrated
approaches can offer meaningful improvements in health, 7.2.6 Health as a catalyst for social and
mental wellness and inclusion. WHO’s Age-Friendly Cities environmental justice
programme has highlighted the importance of changing Health can catalyse interventions that generate far-reaching
perceptions of older persons, involving a wide range of gains in social and environmental justice. Air quality is
stakeholders (e.g. community organizations, universities and strongly linked to climate change, environmental injustices
businesses) and developing multisectoral approaches.95 and multiple shortfalls in urban planning. The health burden
disproportionately falls upon low-income residents and
For instance, the Age-Friendly Manchester Culture Programme neighbourhoods who have typically contributed the least to
brought together 19 cultural organizations (including greenhouse gas emissions but often lack the capacities to
museums, orchestras and theatres) to ensure these activities adapt effectively and require additional support (Box 7.4).99
are more accessible to older persons. The UK city sought to As discussed in Chapters 5 and 6, building infrastructure to
address social isolation and racial exclusion by partnering with support non-motorized transport and planning for 15-, 20- and
organizations representing older people from black, Asian, and 30-minute cities are among the ways that cities can achieve
minority ethnic groups. Manchester also established an Age-
Friendly Assembly and Older People’s Board that promotes
participation and inclusive decision-making.96 Health can catalyse interventions that
generate far-reaching gains in social
In the Turkish municipality of Besiktas (population of and environmental justice
181,000, with 20 per cent age 60 and above), integrated
social centres have helped enhance older persons’ cognitive
skills and social integration, as well as offering group therapy
and counselling services.97 The centres provided several
opportunities to join cultural activities such as concerts and
seminars, as well as gardening, games and various crafts.
Individuals participating in Besiktas’ centres had lower levels
of depression and higher social support levels than those
receiving home-based assistance.
Finally, in Valencia, Spain, the city council worked with

the Older People’s Association to create eight “bio-healthy
parks” that simultaneously promote healthy exercise, access
to green spaces and enhanced socialization.98 Each Park has
several types of exercise equipment tailored to older people’s
needs (e.g. to maintain agility and balance), and the initiative
Box 7.4: Inequitable impact of air pollution in Greater Accra, Ghana
In Greater Accra recent findings highlighted the inequitable, far-reaching impacts of air pollution. Amongst patients hospitalized due
to air pollution or road traffic injuries, the poorest two quintiles were over-represented, accounting for 45 per cent of admissions. The
majority were informal workers and the associated medical costs, most of which they bore out of pocket, represented up to double
their annual earnings. Furthermore, indirect costs of air pollution were often extremely high for lung cancer, ischemic heart disease
and road traffic (due to lost incomes), making the impacts of air pollution even more unmanageable for the poorest residents.
Source: Lampert et al, 2021.
232
simultaneous co-benefits, such as reducing greenhouse gas promoting initiatives are necessarily place-specific, this
emissions, creating healthier neighbourhoods and reducing section will identify an overarching vision for action
per capita expenditures on public infrastructure maintenance. towards healthy urban futures focusing on nine interrelated
priorities: 1) the “health in all policies” (HiAP) approach;
How cities respond to endemics like HIV/AIDS are also 2) ongoing, disaggregated data collection 3) developing
health catalysts for social justice. In 2014, UNAIDS launched holistic, place-based strategies; 4) pursuing climate and
the 90-90-90 Initiative with the following targets: 1) 90 per health co-benefits; 5) enhancing universal health coverage
cent of people living with HIV know their HIV status, 2) and complementary social programmes; 6) strengthening
90 per cent of people who know their HIV-positive status health system preparedness 7) supporting healthy diets and
are accessing treatment, and 3) 90 per cent of people on active lifestyles; 8) enhancing health at the workplace; and
treatment have suppressed viral loads. In making strides to 9) promoting mental health.
achieve these goals, cities and municipalities are increasingly
adopting a social justice approach to design initiatives 7.3.1 The “health in all policies” (HiAP) approach
tackling exclusions and intersectional inequalities.100 Recognizing the need to promote health across all urban
interventions, cities are increasingly adopting a “health in all
Over 300 cities and municipalities have joined UNAIDS in policies” (HiAP) approach to mainstream health in decision-
this effort. Collectively they are known as Fast-Track Cities making across all sectors and levels.104
and have achieved impressive results. Kigali, nearly reaching
the global treatment targets (currently 91-94-89),101 has
Cities are increasingly adopting a “health in all
prioritized reducing HIV infections among adolescents,
policies” (HiAP) approach to mainstream health
supports female sex workers (e.g. with condoms and access
in decision-making across all sectors and levels
to information), and is developing coordination mechanisms
with stakeholders such as faith-based organizations, the
judiciary, and civil society groups focused on gender- HiAP is the governance mechanism seeking to add a health
based violence and human rights. In Amsterdam, a broad perspective across all policies and embed health literacy
consortium of stakeholders involved in HIV prevention and into the city planning system, land-use decisions and other
care developed an integrated strategy that successfully helped relevant sectoral interventions.105 Past examples of HiAP-
to reduce transmission. Amsterdam’s highest-risk groups are informed interventions include the provision of urban
migrants and men who have sex with men (MSM); the HIV greenspaces in Barcelona and open street initiatives in
Transmission Elimination Amsterdam initiative targeted these several Latin American cities to provide low-carbon and active
groups to help reduce new diagnoses, while also including transport alongside health-promoting behaviour changes.106
affected communities and interdisciplinary specialists on the Factors that can support HiAP uptake are stable funding,
project’s team.102 Key interventions in Amsterdam include long-term political support, open communication, clear
same-day testing and treatment, focused awareness-raising mechanisms for public engagement, established taskforces
campaigns and enhanced access to preexposure prophylaxis and legal obligations that compel policymakers to apply the
(PrEP). New York City’s “status neutral” approach has sought HiAP approach.107
to tackle HIV-related stigma and offers social marketing for
PrEP, anti-stigma programmes targeting LGBTQI youth and One way of implementing the HiAP approach is through
enhanced HIV surveillance.103 the preparation of a health impact assessment (HIA), a
tool that can facilitate intersectoral action and analyse a
proposed intervention’s impacts on population health and the
7.3 Envisaging Health for Sustainable distribution of such effects. HIAs have been used in a range
Urban Futures of regions including Canada, New Zealand, Thailand and
across the WHO’s European Healthy Cities Network.108 HIAs
This forward-looking section will highlight initiatives that are useful mechanisms to support decision-making and can
can foster several gains in health, reduce intersectional be used collaboratively across stakeholders, with successful
inequalities, promote climate resilience and advance other examples benefiting from local political support, HIA trainings
SDGs in urban areas, thus avoiding the high damage or and collaborations with academic or public health institutions.
pessimistic scenarios for urban futures and instead, chart However, some HIAs may be too narrowly defined, and it may
a course toward the optimistic scenario. While health- be useful to develop other strategies that can mainstream
233
Box 7.5: Lessons from the health in all policies approach in Richmond, US to foster health equity and climate
resilience, reduce violence and discrimination, and promote social justice
The local government in Richmond adopted a comprehensive HiAP approach to reduce violence and health inequalities while
supporting inclusive economic development and climate resilience. In this working-class community of 115,000 in the San Francisco
Bay Area of California, many residents faced elevated levels of morbidity and mortality due to hazardous exposures from a nearby oil
refinery, rampant gun violence and systemic racism.
Following mobilizations by local environmental justice advocates, officials in Richmond approved the United States’ first HiAP
ordinance in 2014 focused on addressing toxic stresses and building upon three years of collaborative discussions amongst
community organizations, academics, health officers and other local officials.
Subsequently, health indicators in Richmond markedly improved and an array of initiatives helped promote multiple benefits for health
and social inclusion. For instance, three neighbourhood-specific action plans were developed with low-cost but health-promoting
actions such as urban gardens, mobile clinics, slowing traffic and creating sports courts. Underscoring the multi-sectoral strategies
needed to support well-being, the city adopted a living wage ordinance of US$15 per hour, prepared a climate action plan and pursued
activities to reduce violence via mentorship with ex-offenders and employment promotion. Key lessons include 1) the importance of
institutionalizing health equity goals, 2) focusing on underlying causes of poor health, 3) working collaboratively with racial/ethnic
minorities, ex-offenders, and other marginalized groups, 4) supporting inclusive economic development, and 5) flexible, learning-by-
doing strategies.
Source: Corburn, J., 2020; City of Richmond, 2022.
health into decision-making across all sectors.109 Richmond groups thus enhancing effectiveness of place-based health
illustrates how an ambitious, multisectoral HiAP approach can interventions. A complementary mechanism that is expanding
meaningfully address multiple inequalities while promoting across world regions is the urban health observatory model
health and social justice (Box 7.5). that collates disaggregated data to reveal and analyse health
inequalities and support effective place-based interventions as
7.3.2 Ongoing, disaggregated data collection well as build capacity with interdisciplinary researchers.
Since urban health risks are multilayered and change rapidly,
policymakers require ongoing data collection with attention 7.3.3 Developing holistic, place-based strategies
to emerging inequalities and the diversity of health challenges Rather than merely prioritizing a single disease or vulnerable
in urban areas. Using disaggregated data to inform inclusive group of city dwellers, policymakers will need to recognize
interventions, policymakers can develop holistic initiatives that health outcomes are deeply rooted in social, economic,
that address complex urban health inequalities and support environmental and political factors across several scales.
locally rooted solutions. Disaggregated data is needed
to uncover health disadvantages in cities, which may be Urban health inequities are often stubborn and pervasive, yet
based on factors such as age, disability, gender, occupation, such concerns are not immune to change. Challenges linked
race/ethnicity, migration status and/or sexuality as well as to the built environment—themselves often tied to political
residence in marginalized neighbourhoods. and socioeconomic exclusion—can be tackled via place-
based initiatives and complementary strategies produced in
City authorities can leverage digital technology such as alignment with marginalized residents and local organizations.
telemedicine platforms and drones to generate data in locations
that are inaccessible using other data collection methods. Action on the underlying causes of differential health
Citizen science, through which communities lead in data outcomes and tackling the pathways through which they
collection, offers a useful tool for producing localized data and influence urban health can substantially help to promote well-
fostering participation among marginalized and hard-to-reach being in cities.110 Some of the very same sources of urban
234
risk can be transformed into opportunities for well-being.

Holistic approaches are inevitably complex, and
To take one example, urban form itself can “either promote
efforts to support the underlying determinants
or hinder healthy behaviours” via the provision (or absence)
of health will not be rapid or easy to achieve
of infrastructure, healthy food options and neighbourhood
connectivity amongst other factors.111 air quality alone would realize health benefits that easily
offset the global costs of emissions reductions.”115 Alongside
Holistic, participatory upgrading interventions can massive gains in air quality, there are important opportunities
offer a potent mechanism and an inclusive process to promote physical activity, improve the built environment
for enhancing residents’ well-being, with extensive and foster dietary changes that can simultaneously support
possibilities to support healthy, equitable, and sustainable urban health and climate resilience.116
transformations.112 By improving WASH, durable housing,
all-weather roads and other vital infrastructure, upgrading There is a wide array of climate-related interventions with
can significantly help to reduce the risks of disasters and strong potential to improve health including via shelter
communicable disease transmission, while also enhancing initiatives, compact city planning and nature-based solutions
access to healthcare and emergency services. Furthermore, (Chapters 5 and 6). Improving access to low-carbon, resilient
equitable upgrading partnerships with strong grassroots infrastructure and other climate-friendly strategies can help
participation can promote the social determinants of to advance several SDGs in addition to creating major health
health such as safety, social inclusion and empowerment. benefits. Enhanced access to clean energy and climate-
Prior upgrading partnerships in cities including Medellín, resilient infrastructure (SDGs 7 and 9) can simultaneously
Ahmedabad and Nairobi indicate that upgrading can also improve health, (SDG 3), tackle poverty (SDG 1) and
enhance equitable governance and accountability between foster gender equality (SDG 5) by overturning the gender-
inequitable impacts of inadequate infrastructure.
Health outcomes are deeply rooted in social, There are also multiple health benefits from pursuing holistic
economic, environmental and political factors strategies such as access to green spaces and active transport
across several scales (i.e., improving cycling lanes, supporting pedestrianization)
because such initiatives can enhance air quality, lower risks
formerly marginalized residents, local governments and of obesity and NCDs, and improve mental health thanks to
service providers.113 Achieving such gains will require improved environmental quality and activity levels.117 Parks
multisectoral action and the development o inclusive, and other green spaces can reduce urban temperatures and
contextually rooted strategies that can address cities’ flood risks (by slowing runoff and retaining excess water), while
complex health inequalities. Holistic approaches are also enhancing air quality and encouraging greater physical
inevitably complex, and efforts to support the underlying activity.118 Entry points for interventions can range from the
determinants of health will not be rapid or easy to achieve. building and neighbourhood levels up to the district, city and
But placing health equity at the core of urban policy (as regional scales. Figure 7.11 illustrates how supporting health
in HiAP and related approaches) can create unparalleled at several interventions goes hand-in-hand with inclusive,
opportunities for urban transformations and unify multiple equitable and sustainable urban development. Another model
progressive agendas, thus generating far-reaching gains in can be found in a framework called Towards Health uRbanism:
social and environmental justice. InclusiVe Equitable Sustainable (THRIVES), which advances
health beyond the individual to the community, ecosystem
7.3.4 Pursuing climate and health co-benefits and planetary levels (Figure 7.12). It highlights the layers of
Leading researchers argue that the climate and ecological interconnected benefits when health is placed at the centre of
emergencies present the most urgent contemporary health
challenges. As an Aga Khan University expert argues: “The
greatest threat to global public health is the continued Enhanced access to clean energy and climate-
failure [to] keep the global temperature rise below 1.5°C resilient infrastructure (SDGs 7 and 9) can
and to restore nature.”114 In turn, there is a pressing need simultaneously improve health, (SDG 3), tackle
for sizeable investments in climate-resilient infrastructure poverty (SDG 1) and foster gender equality
and related health-promoting interventions, whose benefits (SDG 5) by overturning the gender-inequitable
would far exceed their costs. As the expert notes: “Better impacts of inadequate infrastructure
235
Figure 7.11: Potential benefits of urban climate actions for health, adaptation and mitigation
Category Adaptation action Mitigation Health co-benefit
Nature based solutions Urban greening
Other nature based solutions
Maintain and upgrade water treatment, sewage and sanita-

tion facilities
Infrastructure
Transport infrastructure
Increasing bike/walk lanes
Upgrading health infrastructure

N/A
Urban planning design Compact cities
Passive urban design
Housing and Building Passive building design

design
Air conditioning
Integrated approach across
Mainstreaming adaptation and mitigation into local

development
Policy and Government
Improve partnerships
Prioritizing equity in adaptation planning N/A
Knowledge perception & Communication of co-benefits and actions to protect health N/A
behavior
Support social networks
Monitoring, Evaluation Early waring systems N/A

&warning system
Response plans to protect vulnerable groups N/A
Improved local monitoring of climate parameters N/A N/A

Source: Sharifi et al, 2021.
Note: Shades of green represent co-benefits, while those in orange represent trade-offs; darker colours represent the greater confidence attached to the association. Blank boxes currently have
insufficient evidence.
urban planning and design to secure inclusive, equitable and (UHC) for the 4 billion people who currently lack such
sustainable urban futures. guaranteed care.119,120 Universal health coverage means that
“everyone receives quality health services, when and where
7.3.5 Enhancing universal health coverage they need them, without incurring financial hardship.” This
“Leave no one behind” is the central transformative principle social policy represents a key element of resilient, inclusive
underpinning the SDGs and the New Urban Agenda. It societies, as it can simultaneously support social justice,
represents the unequivocal global commitment by leaders to equitable economic development and the realization of
ensure that sustainable development is experienced by all. human rights (Box 7.6).121 Although important advances
In the urban health context, consequently, there is growing toward universal health coverage have been achieved since
consensus of the urgency to provide universal health coverage 2000, stubborn challenges remain in many settings.122
236
Figure 7.12 Towards Health Urbanism: Inclusive Equitable Sustainable (THRIVES) framework
Source: Pineo, 2020.
In the wake of COVID-19 pandemic, the value of social spending; medicines are usually a key driver of out-of-pocket
protection systems was demonstrated in not only supporting spending and financial hardship.
the most vulnerable but also reinforcing the collective health
and well-being for all. Although strategies to expand universal health coverage
will depend on local contexts, politics and financial
Even before COVID-19, countries struggled in expanding considerations, a range of promising approaches have
access to universal health coverage; there were already demonstrated how to leave no one behind including strong
rising levels of catastrophic health expenditure (i.e., when political commitment and the use of general tax revenue in
households spend over 10 per cent of their budgets on Thailand and Mexico; making pregnant women universally
health).123 From 2015–2017, households with catastrophic eligible in Ghana; leveraging co-operative societies as
health expenditures rose from 940 million to 996 million. intermediaries for informal workers in India; and providing
The elderly and people with intergenerational households subsidies to informal workers, schoolchildren, ethnic
typically have the highest incidence of catastrophic health minorities and other vulnerable groups in Viet Nam.124
237
Box 7.6: Pro-poor strategies to expand universal health coverage
While universal health coverage is a key policy concern and may be achieved via several mechanisms, local initiatives and
policy incentives to reach marginalized city dwellers will also be necessary. Pro-poor strategies to expand universal health
coverage include:
• Reducing administrative obstacles by eliminating documentation requirements and/or enrolment fees and establishing
automatic enrolment in universal health coverage as is the case in the Vajpayee Arogyashree scheme of Karnataka state
(India).125
• Reducing or eliminating co-payments, such as in Thailand’s UHC schemes.
• Addressing other barriers facing marginalized groups such as migrants/refugees (Chile and Thailand), informal workers
(Viet Nam) and those with less education126
To support equitable improvements in provision, it is also crucial to offer comprehensive benefit packages for both inpatient
and outpatient services and to fund universal health coverage with public sources. If universal access is not financially viable
at first, policymakers can pursue “progressive universalism” such as prioritizing vulnerable groups and expanding coverage of
high-priority health services to all.
7.3.6 Strengthening health system preparedness response. Strong collaboration with community organizations
COVID-19 is not the first nor will it be the last pandemic that and community health workers can play a key role in reaching
cities will face; new outbreaks of other pandemics and major residents, engendering trust in health systems during health
health emergencies are likely to occur.127 In this reality, emergencies and disseminating communication clearly,
policymakers must reinvigorate health systems to address regularly, and transparently including in local languages and
future shocks via an equitable, coordinated approach from tailored to grassroots needs to help tackle misinformation
the local to global levels. and support health literacy.130
The Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Local and national governments will need to continue
Response has identified several interrelated priorities such as expanding universal health care, which must be recognized
investing in preparedness; enhancing surveillance and alert as a crucial aspect of health systems preparedness. As
systems; and strengthening leadership and collaboration underscored by COVID-19, barriers to healthcare provision
across the health sector and all levels of government, may have catastrophic, persisting knock-on effects during
including at the highest levels. Expanding access to long- emergencies.
term funding streams will be essential both for preparedness
and early response capacity.128 7.3.7 Supporting healthy diets and active lifestyles
Alongside health-promoting policy interventions,
The WHO has found that preparedness is affordable,129 which policymakers will need to promote behaviour change and
can help to spark cost-effective interventions to avoid future technological transformations to foster healthy, sustainable
pandemics. To address emerging zoonotic diseases, there is urbanization.131 Such behaviour change interventions also
a need for jointly tackling animal and environmental health
surveillance, as proposed by the One Health Commission,
with further collaborations across several sectors including
transport, migration and WASH. Local and national
governments will need to
While global monitoring is generally the purview of national continue expanding universal
and international health agencies, adequate funding, human health care, which must
resources and trainings for local governments and municipal be recognized as a crucial
health providers in emergency response and preparedness aspect of health systems
will be crucial to support effective urban preparedness and preparedness
238
need to recognize social, cultural and other factors that may due to longstanding norms and preferences. Complementary
strongly shape behaviours such as consumer preferences. outreach strategies are therefore needed to support the
desirability and affordability of healthy foods.133
Urban diets and food systems represent critical priorities for
intervention, as efforts to support healthy diets may generate Further health benefits may be achieved by combining
a wealth of benefits for urban health, climate resilience dietary initiatives with holistic strategies like to access to
and environmental sustainability more generally. Recent green spaces as well as promotion of active lifestyles and
findings indicate that “unhealthy diets pose a greater risk to active transport (i.e., improving cycling lanes, supporting
morbidity and mortality than does unsafe sex, and alcohol, pedestrianization). Such initiatives portend co-benefits
drug, and tobacco use combined,” while food systems are that enhance air quality, lower risks of obesity and NCDs,
already pushing beyond safe ecological boundaries.132 and improve mental health thanks to better environmental
quality and activity levels.134
Based on findings from cities in the United States, expanding
access to grocery stores or limiting the growth of fast-food 7.3.8 Promoting occupational health in the “future
outlets may be necessary but insufficient; there is also a need of work”
to promote demand for healthy foods. South Los Angeles There is vigorous discussion of the “future of work”
instituted a yearlong ban on new fast-food restaurants, but following COVID-19 but further consideration is needed
no changes in consumption were found over five years, likely of health, climate resilience, and co-benefit interventions
Bikers in Placetas, Cuba © UN-Habitat/Hector Bayona
239
with greater attention to multiple exclusions and the need and social breakdown, and will slow down economic
to develop inclusive strategies. The pandemic’s health recovery,”143 making this field an urgent priority not only
and economic outcomes have markedly differed amongst for supporting health and dignity but also for continued
wealthier urban knowledge workers (who can work from economic and social development.
home with access to food and services) and those with
heightened exposures like frontline health workers, factory Key priorities for equitable, inclusive mental health initiatives
workers and essential service providers.135 Workers’ access are additional investments in mental healthcare providers,
to insurance, healthcare and other benefits have also proved ensuring that mental health is covered under universal
decisive in the pandemic’s outcomes, with many precarious health coverage and primary healthcare interventions,
workers lacking social protections beyond (at best) short- offering additional capacity-building to health providers, and
term emergency relief measures.136 providing tailored, inclusive support to help meet service
users’ needs.144
COVID-19 has demonstrated that occupational health risks
are often gendered and racialized, with many of these There are often contextual specificities requiring locally
disadvantages overlapping to heighten risks and entrenching rooted strategies to support mental health in urban areas. For
ill health amongst racial/ethnic minorities, migrant workers or instance, low-income migrants in cities may face heightened
along other intersectional axes of difference.137 Additionally, challenges in accessing mental health services. A review of
low-income women have overwhelmingly shouldered caring Chinese rural-urban migrants’ mental health indicated that
burdens while facing rising risks of gender-based violence migrant children averaged poorer mental health scores than
and heightened job losses, as they were overrepresented in urban children, which may reflect migrants’ lower incomes,
hospitality and other hard-hit sectors during COVID-19.138 limited social networks and reduced access to services as
Many occupational health risks predate the pandemic and compared to urban residents.145 A focus on children and
are especially acute amongst informal workers in cities in young people, as well as creating broader coalitions and
lower- and middle-income countries. Globally, an estimated countering stigma facing those with mental illness will again
2 billion people work in the informal economy,139 which be vital to ensure healthier urban futures.
is defined as all livelihoods lacking legal recognition or
social protections.140 As a result of their unregistered and More broadly, it will be essential to move beyond biomedical
unrecognized status, informal workers often remain invisible approaches to mental healthcare and instead seek to address
in official data and are neglected by health-promoting the social determinants of health; interventions also need
interventions.141 to actively engage people with mental illnesses, including
to provide peer support, foster empowerment and inform
Future interventions are needed to develop holistic future strategies.146
strategies to foster health and livelihoods of precarious
workers, including migrants and youth. This could also
explore how recent forms of equitable engagements 7.4 Concluding Remarks and Lessons for
can be built upon to enhance health and well-being at Policy
the workplace. For instance, during the initial phases of
COVID-19, some cities created inclusive partnerships and The optimistic scenario for urban futures envisions brave
enhanced recognition for informal workers. Food vendors in commitments to make transformative progress for achieving
Kenya, Zimbabwe and other African nations were declared the SDGs in the decade of action by tackling structural
“essential” service providers during the health crisis, which inequalities and creating conditions that foster social,
sometimes stemmed from mobilizations by informal trader economic and spatial inclusion to ensure that no one is
organizations.142 left behind. Chapter 7 proposes that health can serve as a
catalyst that unifies several SDGs and generates multiple far-
7.3.9 Promoting mental health reaching benefits beyond the absence of disease.
Improving access to mental health programmes and
developing holistic strategies to address mental illness The multilayered, rapidly changing nature of urban health
remain a key concern globally, especially in the wake of risks necessitates holistic multisectoral strategies that are
COVID-19. Without robust action, mental health problems complementary and additive. To be effective these strategies
will “contribute to human suffering, premature mortality, need to be informed and progressively refined by ongoing,
240
disaggregated data collection to reveal gendered as well as To effectively promote and secure health for inclusive,
intersectional disparities for timely place-based interventions resilient, and sustainable urban futures, policymakers
that will ensure no one is left behind. By mainstreaming the urgently need to address the root of urban health
health in all policies approach with a focus on health equity inequities entrenched in racial divides, gendered
throughout urban interventions, policymakers can help to discrimination, xenophobia and other sources of
address the underlying sources of health disadvantages and disadvantage. Action to address these underlying causes
create unparalleled opportunities for inclusive, equitable and and tackle the pathways through which they influence
sustainable urban futures. health outcomes can substantially help to promote
equitable well-being in cities and arrive at the optimistic
The facts and arguments presented in this chapter generate scenario for urban futures.
five key lessons for securing healthy urban futures:
Local and national governments need to prioritize
Urban policymakers should undertake multi-sectoral achieving universal health coverage as a pathway of
approaches (extending far beyond the health sector) to strengthening health systems preparedness. Additionally,
effectively address the social, economic political and policymakers need to work with and strengthen a diverse
environmental factors influencing health in cities. By array of urban health providers—including community
mainstreaming health across all urban interventions health workers—to enhance healthcare options
(a HiAP approach), cities can realize multiple benefits especially for marginalized and vulnerable groups.
and unlock synergies between health and sustainable As underscored by COVID-19, barriers to healthcare
development pathways. provision may have catastrophic, persistent knock-on
effects during emergencies.
Ongoing, disaggregated data collection with attention to
intersectional disparities and emerging health challenges Responsive, accountable local authorities are pivotal
in urban areas is essential for timely and effective in actualizing the optimistic scenario for urban futures
interventions to address the multilayered, rapidly through investing in urban services that improve the
changing nature of urban health risks. City governments social determinants of health including fostering safety,
can leverage on technology and partnership with promoting social cohesion, enhancing living conditions
grassroot organizations to help fill data gaps while also and creating access to decent work and address urban
amplifying the voice of marginalized groups in decision health inequities. To achieve this, cities need sufficient
making. technical capacities and financial resources to develop
and implement these holistic, place - based strategies.
241
Endnotes
1. HO, 2022d.
W 39. illiams et al, 2019.
W 75. nited Nations, 2015a.
U Wang, 2020.
2. WHO Regional Office for 40. Whitehead, 1992. 76. Satterthwaite et al, 2019. 113. C orburn et al, 2020;
Europe, 2022. 41. Rigon and Castán Broto, 77. Satterthwaite et al, 2019; Baruah, 2015; Horn 2021.
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2020. 43. Howard et al. 2019. 79. Bhaumik et al, 2020. 116. Sharifi et al, 2021.
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6. Dye, 2008, p.768. 45. Noykhovich et al, 2019. 81. Ludwick et al, 2020. al, 2021.
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9. Corburn et al, 2020a; United 48. Earle, 2016. 84. Baxter et al, 2019. 120. UN-Habitat, 2021a.
Nations, 2020a; Kabeer et 49. Earle, 2016; Guterres and 85. Ewing et al, 2015. 121. Gitahi and Cashin 2020,
al, 2021. Spiegel 2012. 86. Matzopoulos et al, 2020. p.1613.
10. UN-Habitat, 2021a. 50. Cole, 2014. 87. Sheridan, 2018. 122. WHO and IBRD/World Bank,
11. Plowright et al, 2020. 51. Johnson, 2017. 88. GNESD, 2014. 2021, pp. vii and
12. Grace and Jones, 2011. 52. Shaw et.al, 2021. 89. Collado and Wang, 2020. 12-14.
13. The Lancet, 2019; UNAIDS, 53. Ezeh et al, 2017; Corburn and Riley 90. Simon, 2015. 123. WHO and IBRD/World Bank,
2019. 2016. 91. Simon, 2015, p. 460. 2021, vi and 30.
14. ECDC, 2022. 54. Dodman et al, 2019 (‘A 92. Corburn and Griffin, 2019. 124. Vilcu et al. 2016.
15. ECDC, 2021. spectrum of methods for 93. Sharifi et al, 2021. 125. Watson et al, 2021.
16. Patz and Siri, 2021; Atwoli a spectrum of risk: Generating 94. Sverdlik et al, 2020. 126. Anjorin et al, 2021, pp.7-8.
et al, 2021. evidence to understand and reduce 95. Rémillard-Boilard et al, 127. Zakaria, 2020.
17. McGranahan et al, 2007. urban risk in sub‐Saharan Africa’ ). 2021. 128. Independent Panel for
18. For Dar es Salaam, see 55. Satterthwaite and Bartlett 96. WHO, 2022c. Pandemic Preparedness
Kiunsi, 2013. 2017; Vojnovic et al, 2019. 97. WHO, 2022a. and Response, 2021.
19. Gasper et al, 2011. 56. Moser, 2011. 98. WHO, 2022b. 129. WHO, 2021a.
20. McDonald et al, 2014. 57. Boubacar et al, 2017. 99. Reckien et al, 2017. 130. Wilkinson, 2020.
21. Ebi et al, 2021, pp. 703-4. 58. Reckien et al, 2017. 100. UNAIDS, 2019. 131. Crane et al, 2021, p.6.
22. Romanello et al, 2021. 59. Mohindra and Schrecker, 101. UNAIDS, 2019. 132. Willett et al, 2019, p.447.
23. Romanello et al. 2021, 2013. 102. De Bree et al. 2019; 133. Westbury et al, 2021.
p.16. 60. Baruah 2015; Sovacool, UNAIDS, 2019. 134. Tainio et al, 2021; Sharifi et
24. WHO, 2021g. 2011. 103. The Lancet, 2019. al, 2021.
25. Samet, 2019. 61. Subbaraman et al, 2012. 104. WHO, 2015. 135. Acuto, 2020; UN-Habitat,
26. WHO, 2021h. 62. Muggah, 2014; Moser and 105. UN-Habitat and WHO 2020, 2021a.
27. WHO, 2018b. McIlwaine 2014. p38. 136. Razavi et al, 2020.
28. Tainio et al, 2021. 63. WHO, 2016. 106. Ramírez-Rubio et al. 2019, 137. Smith et al, 2021; Kabeer
29. WHO Regional Office for 64. Sommer et al, 2015; p17. et al, 2021.
Europe, 2019. Corburn and Karanja 2014. 107. Van Vliet-Brown et al, 138. Smith et al, 2021.
30. Willett et al, 2019, p.447. 65. Chant, 2013. 2018. 139. ILO, 2018.
31. Willett et al, 2019. 66. Bartlett and Tacoli, 2021. 108. Guglielmin et al. 2018. 140. Chen and Carré, 2020; ILO,
32. GBD 2019 Mental Disor ders 67. Mberu et al, 2015. 109. Van Vliet-Brown et al, 2018.
Collaborators, 2022. 68. Kola et al, 2021. 2018. 141. Lund et al, 2016.
33. Esponda et al, 2020. 69. Kola et al, 2021. 110. WHO and UN-Habitat, 142. Bamu and Marchiori, 2020.
34. Bartlett and Tacoli, 2021. 70. WHO Rwanda, 2020. 2016; Diez Roux, 2021. 143. Kola et al, 2021, p.545.
35. Wang and Otis, 2019. 71. City of Kigali, 2020. 111. Vojnovic et al, 2019, p. 3. 144. Esponda et al, 2020.
36. Popkin et al, 2020. 72. Zhou and Parmanto 2019. 112. Henson et al, 2020; Lilford 145. Zhang et al, 2019.
37. Bartlett and Tacoli, 2021, p.5. 73. Griffiths et al, 2020. et al, 2017; Corburn and 146. Kola et al, 2021.
38. Tacoli, 2017. 74. Buttazzoni et al, 2020. Sverdlik, 2017; Collado and
242
Chapter 8:
Rethinking Urban Governance for
243
Rethinking Urban Governance for the Future of Cities
Quick facts
1. Through the lens of spatial justice, effective multi-level governance plays a key role in
ensuring that global shocks like the pandemic do not disproportionately impact vulnerable
groups.
2. The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated the digitalization of urban governance, which
provides an opportunity to use new data, but also threatens to increase the digital divide.
3. City diplomacy and international city networks provide an emerging opportunity for cities to
contribute learning and experience and adapt governance approaches to their own context.
4. Effective decentralization, local fiscal autonomy, adequate local capacity and links between
National Urban Policies and cities have not progressed enough.
5. While many cities are engaging in innovative participatory processes, globally, space for
civil society is shrinking.
Policy points
1. In an age of global threats and disruptions, such as pandemics, natural disasters and armed
conflicts, urban governance needs to be flexible and adaptable.
2. With cities being more culturally mixed, and with bigger distance between citizens and
government, building trust and legitimacy are essential, including protecting data privacy.
3. Governments need to have adequate political and institutional legitimacy, clearly defined
roles and need capacity and resources that meet their responsibilities.
4. There is a need for clearer and more decentralized regulatory frameworks to enable more
own-source revenue, municipal borrowing and bond-issuance and more regular government
transfers.
5. Government must revision their relationship between the private sector and civil society,
with special attention to underrepresented groups to co-create strategies such as
re-municipalization, community-led finance and forms of co-production of urban services.
244
Aspiration and opportunity coexist with destitution and The chapter progresses as follows: The first section explores
disaster as a defining feature of our world. With an estimated key lessons for urban governance from the challenges and
90 per cent of all reported COVID-19 cases, cities were the systemic disruptions to communication, core functions and
epicentre of the pandemic.1 Meanwhile, cities bear the service delivery as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The
brunt of armed conflict and subsequent displacement, such second section discusses crucial urban governance approaches
as the ongoing conflicts in Ethiopia, Myanmar, Syria, Ukraine that drive and sustain resilient urban futures. Third, through
and Yemen. These crises have made explicitly clear the need the lens of emerging urban governance challenges, the
for just and effective urban governance. While the pandemic section reviews current promising governance practices
caused harm beyond the ability of governments to manage, it that address each challenge. The fourth section presents
catalysed a sense of urgency and a window of opportunity to divergent urban governance scenarios and the consequences
reimagine urban governance for more just, green and healthy associated with each imagined approach. Finally, the chapter
urban futures. presents concluding remarks and lessons for policy.
The global health emergency has reinforced that no local

governmental entity, regardless of its level of development 8.1. Urban Governance Lessons from a
or income, can achieve sustainable and resilient urban Global Pandemic
development in isolation. Indeed, urban governance is not
entirely under the purview of local institutions and actors, How cities responded to the recent COVID-19 pandemic
but also highly influenced by the frameworks and enabling and related shocks indicates flaws in the current model
environment set by national governments.2 Whether and of urbanization. The COVID-19 pandemic provides an
how economic opportunities; supportive social networks; opportunity to reflect on how urban governance can evolve
and access to land, infrastructure and services are accessible to promote a more just, green and healthy future for cities.
to the urban poor is largely dependent on the efficacy of While many of the lessons of the ongoing pandemic are
urban governance and institutional arrangements. Urban covered extensively throughout this report, there are unique
governance remains central to effective crisis response and lessons for governance.
sustainable urban development.
8.1.1. Shocks disproportionately impact vulnerable
Chapter 7 of the World Cities Report 2020 discusses the communities
importance of public health for local governments. This The pandemic exposed and amplified several long-standing
chapter augments the discussion on local government urban inequalities in public health, housing and working
by extending the frame of reference to urban governance conditions that cause disproportionate impacts on vulnerable
more broadly. Through the New Urban Agenda, Member and marginalized populations,6 who have less capacity to
States agreed that sound urban governance is a critical tool adhere to public health and social measures.7 Decisions
for people-centred urban development. Such development made at the national or provincial level to limit the spread
patterns better protect the planet and are age- and gender- of COVID-19 through lockdowns and curfews left municipal
responsive. They also enhance the realization of all human leaders in the difficult position to enforce policies that were
rights and fundamental freedoms, help to end all forms of both unmanageable and detrimental to urban residents
discrimination and violence, reduce social and economic without adequate housing.
inequalities, and empower individuals and communities
while enabling their full and meaningful participation.3 Urban governance responses to the pandemic varied around
the world in their effectiveness for vulnerable populations,
The concept of governance recognizes that power exists but included several commonly enacted pro-poor policies.
inside and outside of the formal institutions of government City authorities promulgated rent freezes, eviction moratoria
and that decisions are influenced by the relationships and and bans on demolishing informal settlements that in many
priorities of multiple actors.4 In this light, and in line with instances lasted for the duration of the health crisis. These
previous UN-Habitat publications, this chapter defines crucial governance decisions attempted to mitigate the
urban governance as the sum of the many ways in which disproportionate impacts the pandemic had on vulnerable
individuals and institutions, public and private, plan and communities. Given both the common nature of the threat
manage the common affairs of the city, metropolitan area and the need to act quickly, effective governance responses to
or region.5 the COVID-19 pandemic included city networking initiatives
245
CLOSED message board near bar, cafe, shop on empty street.. © Corona Borealis Studio/Shutterstock
like Cities for Global Health, in which United Cities and A spatial justice approach promises that planning can function
Local Governments (UCLG), Metropolis and UN-Habitat as a tool for the fair redistribution of burdens and benefits
collaborated to set up a knowledge exchange platform for from urban development. Through procedural dimensions
cities to share their protocols, plans and intitiaties.8 Such like participatory budgeting and decision-making, a spatial
city networks are elaborated on in section 8.2.3. justice approach can also strengthen democracy and the
public sphere. For cities to avoid the high damage scenario
When city authorities acted to protest vulnerable noted in Chapter 1, local governments must invest in
communities, they were pursuing “spatial justice,” the infrastructure where new development and informal growth
spatial version of social justice, which strives to realize is occurring and address vulnerable residents’ specific needs.
the fair distribution of burdens and benefits of urban
development across geographic spaces. This complementary 8.1.2. Data matters
idea to the more broadly known “right to the city” is a The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the value of
response to the inequality embedded within urban planning high-quality individualized data for public health measures
and the built environment globally, regionally and locally.9 like contact tracing and for research purposes like evaluating
Beyond the temporary measures taken at the onset of the the effectiveness of specific virus containment measures.11
pandemic, a spatial justice approach requires more targeted While countries mobilized quickly to repurpose emerging
action including pro-poor decisions around zoning rules and data sources (i.e. mobile phone records) to monitor viral
spatial planning processes, the acquisition of land for urban spread and public behaviour, they have simultaneously
redevelopment programs, affordable housing development, struggled to protect against privacy concerns and the risk
slum upgrading, relocation of vulnerable communities and of misuse.12 There are two key data governance lessons that
provision of access to urban amenities and services.10 emerged from the pandemic.
First, deficits in the quality and quantity of high-value data

A spatial justice approach promises exist throughout cities globally and are accentuated within
that planning can function as a tool cities in low- and middle- income countries, which can
for the fair redistribution of burdens obscure certain populations even as decision-makers push
and benefits from urban development forward with crisis response and investment decisions.
246
However, as the World Data Report 2021 states, simply Rwanda’s 2015 National Urbanization Policy provided the basis
gathering more data is not the answer, if data is not effectively for more balanced development in the urban-rural continuum,
linked to improve development outcomes. Global examples promoting sustainable agricultural practices, and lowering
include the use of global spatial location from mobile urban sprawl into protected nature zones.
phones, social media and online search data to predict and
trace viral outbreaks as well as the use of online media and Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic suggests that pre-
user-generated content to map flood events in real time for existing institutionalized governance mechanisms have
water management and food security.13 advantages over ad hoc bodies formed for emergency
purposes.21 Indeed, governments that initiated preparation
Second, access to private and public data is necessary for urban and prevention planning as a result of prior emergencies were
governance institutions to coordinate emergency responses better equipped to respond to COVID-19. For example, Viet
that are grounded in data, geospatial mapping and real-time Nam’s response was informed by previous encounters with
analysis of conditions.14 Data governance considers who makes SARS (2003) and avian influenza (2004 and 2010). These past
decisions, how they are made and how the decision-makers experiences led to a whole-of-government and whole-of-society
are held accountable in the collection, use, sharing and control approach that includes strong central coordination, mobilizing
of urban governance data, which is often owned by various neighbourhoods and engaging multi-sectoral stakeholders in
institutions. Data governance systems are needed to ensure decision-making, in addition to a well-developed public health
data is available to inform policies and actions from city and system, emergency operations centres and contact tracing
territorial initiatives to national strategies and multilateral systems.22 Despite the apparent benefits of models like Viet
cooperation while continuing to maintain privacy and security.15 Nam, many countries did not use existing institutions and
created parallel structures instead.23 A key lesson emerging
Chapter 9 explores the various technologies available for from the COVID-19 pandemic for urban governance is the
urban governance and their associated risks while revealing importance of investing in preparedness by developing the
the need for data governance amongst key stakeholders. economic, social, environmental and institutional resilience
Uruguay’s whole-of-government data governance approach to respond to a wide range of shocks, including having
highlights the benefits of institutionalizing governance contingency plans for the most vulnerable groups.24
arrangements and adopting legislation and regulations to
complement infrastructure and technology investments.16
Similarly, the Netherlands created Urban Data Centres as a 8.2. Urban Governance that Drives and
partnership between the country’s national statistical office Sustains Urban Futures
and local governments in order to enable data sharing in a
way that maintains data integrity and privacy for residents.17 Current modes of urbanization are environmentally, socially
At the international level, organizations such as the OECD and economically unsustainable,25 thus diminishing the
and the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe inherent value of urbanization.26 Top-down and centralized
(UNECE) have supported efforts by national and local forms of government, which are still prevalent, have
governments to collect, analyse and make evidence-informed significant limitations in their ability to address societal
decisions for urban governance through the creation of and governance challenges in complex urban systems. As
subnational indicators for the Global Goals.18 recognized in Chapter 7 of the UN-Habitat World Cities Report
2020, relationships between national, subnational and local
8.1.3. Beyond response: preparation and prevention governments need to be more integrated and collaborative,
The COVID-19 pandemic emphasized the need for effective with an emphasis on institutionalized yet flexible and
governance to manage risk, including investments and innovative frameworks for effective implementation of the
frameworks for preparation and prevention. The Sendai Sustainable Development Goals and the New Urban Agenda.
Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction recognizes the need to
strengthen governance in risk reduction strategies in order to 8.2.1. Governing for, and with, new digital technology
improve preparedness, enhance coordination and leverage the Emerging and existing smart technologies require similarly
recovery process to “Build Back Better.”19 The pandemic taught smart and adaptive governance. New technologies for
us the importance of embedding climate and public health communication, core services, data collection and resident
measures into national urban policies in order to enhance the engagement are reshaping urban governance and can be
ambition and accountability of government.20 For example, harnessed to achieve sustainable urban futures. For at least a
247
decade, city authorities have been integrating more open and presents an issue of governance, particularly in providing
inclusive forms of smart city technology in order to improve universal access and maintaining affordability. Only 47 per
urban governance, decision-making and service provision. cent of people in developing countries and 19 per cent of
Chapter 9 discusses the breadth of new technologies used in people in least developed countries have internet access.28
urban governance across all sectors like water, sanitation, waste However, the digital divide is not just a low-income country
management and environmental management. The focus here challenge, but also a disparity between affluent and poorer
is narrower, specifically the pandemic-induced acceleration of residents in higher-income countries. For example, the NYC
the global transition toward public-facing technologies. Internet Master Plan states that 46 per cent of New York
City households living in poverty do not have broadband at
Undoubtedly, the impact of digital technology will be uneven home and 18 per cent (more than 1.5 million residents) do
across cities in low-income countries, but the availability of not have home or mobile connection.29
geospatial technologies and the resultant data will influence
governance even in the most remote urban areas. Recent Additionally, the digital divide also has a social component, as
empirical case studies from rural districts in Bangladesh to women are disproportionately excluded from access to digital
urban areas in Zimbabwe and Uganda highlight the ubiquitous tools and platforms, with men being 21 per cent more likely to
impacts of new technologies.27 Emergency notifications, be online than women globally, increasing to 51 per cent more
health-check apps, and WhatsApp-based information bots likely in least developed countries.30 The gender disparity
have become prominent features of government operations also has an economic impact with countries missing out on
around the world. The most effective technologies for urban an estimated US$126 million in GDP in 2020 as a result of
governance will emerge from locally-identified needs and the limitations and exclusion of women from digital access.31
within the context where it will be used. For example, after Over 40 per cent of countries do not demonstrate meaningful
repeated challenges with externally-developed platforms, policy actions to close the gendered divide.32 The Alliance for
Mutare, Zimbabwe, engaged in a partnership with the Affordable Internet has developed the REACT Framework,
Harare Institute of Technology to pilot the Local Authorities which highlights five domains for policy development aimed
Database System. One of the components of the system was at eliminating the gendered digital divide (Figure 8.1).33
an innovative chatbot built within WhatsApp, the success of “Open smart cities” is an emerging framework that guides
which is credited to multilevel governance (Box 8.1). the use of new technologies in cities and strives to ensure all
actors, including urban residents, collaborate in mobilizing
As Chapter 9 explores, COVID-19 exacerbated the digital data and technologies to develop their communities through
divide by shifting employment, schooling and social life fair, ethical and transparent governance that balances
into the virtual environment. The emerging digital divide economic development, social progress and environmental
Box 8.1: Chatbot initiative in Mutare, Zimbabwe
Similar to governments around the world, the challenges of COVID-19 overwhelmed the ability
of the local government in Mutare to deal with incoming service requests while maintaining
physical distancing recommendations. To manage resident needs for official services, the city of
Mutare developed an intelligent chatbot called Taurai Katsekaera to provide services such as bill
payments, service requests, balance inquiries, waiting list applications, complaints and payment
plan services. The chatbot, attached to a larger systemwide digital platform, allowed for real-time
access to services without in-person visits. These visits could be leveraged to increase risk
awareness among urban residents in the longer term, just like health and prevention measures
could provide the foundation for better sanitation practices across cities. The implementation of
the chatbot was supported by the central government, developed by a local academic institution
and piloted in Mutare with the intention of scaling across Zimbabwe.
Source: Chatwin, 2022.
248
Figure 8.1: Alliance for Affordable Internet REACT Effective decentralization requires a clarification of roles
Framework based on the level of government best positioned to be
effective, meaning subsidiarity must be the guiding prin-
Protect and enhance
ciple. COVID-19 reinforced this imperative and stresses
Rights everyone's rights online the need for a clear identification of who does what, at
which scale, and how. Without this clarification, com-
Ensure relevant and plexity in the distribution of responsibilities leads to com-
Content empowering content for women
is available and used. peting and overlapping competences, thus resulting in
institutional wars and a lack of accountability. In several
Access Deliver affordable - or free - countries from Asia-Pacific such as Australia, Malaysia,
access to an open web Korea, Japan and the Philippines, there is a frequent
overlap in responsibilities both vertically and horizontally.38
Targets Set and measure concrete In contrast, the Council of Australian Governments, the
gender- equity targets
Local Government Commission in New Zealand, the Union
of Local Authorities in the Philippines and the Municipalities
Use education to equip
Education everyone - especially women Unions in Turkey developed multilevel governance mecha-
- with the skills they need to
access and use the web
nisms that formalize role differentiation.
Globally, multilevel governance is most effective in countries

responsibility. An example that reflects this framework is an with higher degrees of decentralization that have entrenched
initiative in India to set up free high-speed Wi-Fi hotspots processes for spatial planning, climate adaptation and
in areas such as bus stops, hospitals and railway stations.34 mitigation, infrastructure and transport, and technology.39
Cities across Canada are exploring ways to address the Decentralization, in addition to being a critical factor for
growing digital divide through free public Wi-Fi and multilevel governance, equips local governments to respond
distribution of computer equipment to ensure that residents to the needs and desires of residents within crisis situations
are able to participate fully in society.35 and beyond. For example, Gauteng province in South Africa
institutionalized coordination mechanisms for emergency
8.2.2. Improving multilevel governance response, which enables high levels of data collection
Effective multilevel governance is embedded within the and analysis as well as flexible approaches to emergency
New Urban Agenda and is instrumental to achieve the budgeting in order to rapidly address local vulnerabilities.40
Sustainable Development Goals. For cities to attain the Though local action is central to realizing the SDGs, national
optimistic scenario indicated in Chapter 1, a whole-of- government is not irrelevant in the design and implementation
government approach is needed, which would ensure that of local transformations. On the contrary, national government
policymakers “get [the] political economy right to avoid action is crucial to create enabling macroeconomic policies,
piece-meal policymaking leading to both unfilled promises streamline institutional environments and effectively devolve
and unintended consequences."36 Multilevel governance authority to local levels for contextual implementation.
describes how power is spread vertically between multiple Effective decentralization can only be realized if fiscal
levels of government and horizontally across quasi- authority is reconciled with the delivery of functions expected
government and non-governmental organizations and actors. from local governments by their national governments. The
limited fiscal autonomy of local governments, dependency
Chapter 7 of the World Cities Report 2020 exam- on central government fiscal transfers, and competition for
ined the global trend toward decentralization, which resources between subnational governments are factors
according to the OECD is among the most impor- that limit effective decentralization. More detail on fiscal
tant governance reforms of the past 50 years.37 decentralization can be found in section 8.2.6.
Decentralization is not an end in itself, but rather a means
to achieve greater political accountability and more efficient
delivery of services. Multilevel governance within countries Effective decentralization
relies on a balance between decentralization and central requires a clarification of roles
control. It involves three interdependent dimensions: polit- based on the level of government
ical, administrative and fiscal. best positioned to be effective
249
Multilevel governance also includes horizontal cooperation governance in Europe and the Americas often focusses
between cities and local governments along the urban-rural on polycentric governance networks and involves
continuum. Urban challenges do not recognize jurisdictional less structural change. The number of metropolitan
boundaries and often require the pooling of resources and governance authorities in the OECD has increased
expertise, particularly in extended urban agglomerations.41 over the past decades with over two-thirds of the
Further, the nonlinear and intersectional influences of trade, metropolitan areas having an institutionalized governance
migration, water supplies, air quality and food security body, like the Valle de Aburrá in Colombia (Box 8.2).45
necessitate coordination between cities, regions and By contrast, metropolitan governance in many Asian
territories. For example, the Jing-Jin-Ji metropolitan region countries relies on a strong central and local government, in
that encompasses Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei in China has which vertical integration takes precedence over horizontal
been instrumental in addressing the region’s environmental interactions between governments and non-state actors.46
problems, particularly air pollution.42 In China, central government, rather than cities, often take
the initiative for metropolitan governance as they upscale
Evidence suggests that metropolitan areas with institutionalized governance from individual cities to city regions.47 In
frameworks are more likely to optimize their coordination, several countries across Africa and Central Asia, including
provide timely outreach to the whole population, and Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Senegal and Benin, among others,
include rural communities in their mitigation, adaptation metropolitan governance is promoted in the constitution.48
and recovery measures in response to shocks.43 One such
approach is a multi-stakeholder engagement process that Metropolitan governance can be arranged in at least four
uses an inclusive and participatory approach to develop different ways (Figure 8.2).49 Of these schemes, the most
partnerships that promote a greater sense of ownership common is voluntary cooperation among municipalities
over the pursuit and realization of desired outcomes.44 without any regulatory powers.50 While voluntary metropolitan
Another approach is the United Nations Development associations can be limited in their ability to achieve consensus
Programme ART Global Initiative (Articulation of Territorial and on regional action due to their lack of binding authority, inter-
Thematic Networks of Cooperation for Human Development), municipal cooperation mechanisms between large central
whose methodology supports the strengthening and expansion cities and surrounding suburbs create associative schemes
of linkages for knowledge sharing and joint strategy formulation that include the oft-forgotten needs and perspectives of
for local and regional governments. smaller municipalities on the urban periphery.51
Plurality defines the future of metropolitan governance The success of these metropolitan cooperation mechanisms
as it takes different forms across the world. Metropolitan is largely dependent on enabling environments that include
Bangkok, Thailand © Shutterstock
250
clear fiscal and administrative structures. Establishing their example comes out of France, a country with a long tradition
political legitimacy remains one of the biggest obstacles of institutionalized inter-municipal cooperation, in which
to metropolitan governance.52 Metropolitan governance all municipalities are part of an inter-municipal structure
reforms are challenged by conflicting interests, competing with an own-source tax, forming a fourth level of quasi-
aims, reduced planning and development responsibilities, government.54 Similarly, Sri Lanka has articulated an urban
and less fiscal and borrowing autonomy than that which is vision for competitive, environmentally sustainable and well-
present in individual cities.53 Currently, many metropolitan linked cities, by connecting the countries five metro regions
structures are fiscally dependent on the participating local with district and provincial capitals and towns.55
governments and require consensus building. A promising
Figure 8.2: Different kinds of metropolitan governance arrangements
Inter-municipal Established as horizontal cooperation Consolidated Established through amalgamation of

among the local governments local governments or annexation of
cooperation local territory
mechanisms governement
Examples:
Many cities in Brazil; Ruhr, Germany; Turin Example:
and Milan, Italy; Paris, France; Greater Municipalities in South Africa; Turkey, City
Toronto, Canada; Los Angeles County, USA; States(Singapore)
Valle de Aburra, Columbia.
Established as a separate metropoliitan

Metropolitan Established through voluntary organization Metropolitan local government for coordination/ selective
fucntions(type A) or established by a higher
and regional or regional level government for metropolitan area
authorities government (type B)
Type A: Examples: Type A: Examples:

Metropolitan Council Sao Paulo, Brazil ; Bologna,Italy;Montreal, A higher -level Quito, Ecuador, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; Abidjan,
of govenments Canada; numerus examples in the United metropolitan local Cote d'Ivoire(until 2001); Barcelona, Spain; London,
States. government UK; Budapest,Hungary; Stuttgart, Germany;Toronto,
Canada(1954-98); Portland, USC; Shanghai(all
large Chinese cities)
Type B: Examples: Type B: Examples:

Planning & Service Canadian examples such as Greater Regional Abndjan, Cote d'Ivoire (from 2001);
Delivery Authority Vancouver Regional Service District government Madrid, Spain;Manila,Philippines
(GVRSD) and Metropolitan Transport
Authority (ARTM) in Montreal . Lyon
and Marseille, France; Lagos Mega-
City Development Authority, Nigeria;
"Developemnt agencies" in Delhi, India and
Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Source: GIZ and UN-Habitat, 2015.
Box 8.2: Metropolitan governance in Valle de Aburrá, Colombia
The Metropolitan Area of Valle de Aburrá (AMVA) was established in 1980 and is composed of Medellín and nine other municipalities,
home to 4 million people. The AMVA is governed by a metropolitan board, composed of the mayor of Medellín, the mayors of the other
member municipalities, and various councilors and representatives from NGOs and the national government. The AMVA has adopted
more than 150 metropolitan agreements over the last 10 years covering metropolitan public policies, territorial plans, financing
mechanisms, budgets and administrative decisions in areas including transport, environment and security.
251
The AMVA’s main functions include integrated sustainable metropolitan development through infrastructure like public spaces, social
facilities and housing as well as the management of metropolitan public transport. To enable these roles, the AMVA has adopted a
development vision with medium- and long-term horizons, including a long-term development strategy entitled Metrópoli 2050: The
Supercity of Medellín. Another important role of the AMVA is environmental management. For example, the AMVA recently adopted
a metropolitan plan on air quality that links all stakeholders and commits them to meet goals for reducing polluting emissions. To
support the processes of institutional management and regional planning, the AMVA also launched an observatory to monitor and
visualize indicators on a range of strategic issues within the metropolitan area.
Source: UN-Habitat, 2020b.
The future of effective multilevel governance must be Figure 8.3: Women in local councils
attentive to the equitable representation of women. From
Percentage of Balanced gender
a survey of 127 cities (self-reporting), it emerged that only responses from participation
municipalities
a very small percentage of municipalities have balanced
participation between men and women in their local councils 25%
(Figure 8.3).56 However, in recent years, the Ibrahim Index
of African Governance notes a positive trend in the political
power and representation of women in Africa.57 The 20%
most progressive forms of empowerment of women often

come from civil society, such as the self-help organization
15%
Kudumbashree, which has over 4 million female members
and played an instrumental role in removing absolute poverty
from the state of Kerala, India.58 10%
5%
The future of effective multilevel

Percentage
governance must be attentive to the of women in
local councils
equitable representation of women
0-10%
10-20%
20-30%
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
80-90%
90-100%
70-80%
Data sourced from the Urban Governance Survey developed by LSE Cities, UN-Habitat, and UCLG (2016)
252
Furniture shop in Kerala, India.

© Kerstin Milhann/ UN- Habitat
253
For cities to escape the pessimistic scenario described Professional associations that are interested in a rights-based
in Chapter 1, effective multilevel governance also needs approach to sustainable urban development can consider
to acknowledge and work with various forms of parallel involving underrepresented groups such as youth, women
governance in cities. Parallel governance may emerge and minority groups in their governance and decision-
when governments cannot provide the urban services that making. This type of effort requires a commitment of these
residents need, if the quality of those services is lacking, or if associations on behalf of their members to be aware of and
the transaction costs of access to those services is too great.59 integrate global commitments into their culture and advocate
The largest non-governmental development organization in for the rights of residents to be involved in urban planning
the world, BRAC, fulfils many government roles traditionally and development processes.68
associated with the government, and has become the main
provider of services in small towns in Bangladesh.60 City diplomacy is reconfiguring international politics as
cities engage in external relations on an international stage
Parallel governance often emerges out of traditional with the aim of representing themselves and their interests.
governance and relies strongly on informal patron-client Higher representation raises political visibility, facilitates
networks.61 In the African context, traditional leaders often policy negotiations, and increases the possibility of acquiring
play an important role in regards to land allocation in the more resources and knowledge for policy action.69 These
urban periphery and are often more accessible to residents international cooperation opportunities expose participants
than elected politicians.62 In Old Fadama, one of the largest to the art of the possible. They can discuss common barriers
slums in Accra, Ghana, the local association of community and share their experiences of how to work through or
leaders has assumed tasks that the government has failed to overcome them.
implement, such as setting rules to reduce the risks of fire
or flooding.63 While violations of planning regulations that The rise of city diplomacy has manifested in the snowballing
promote sustainable urbanism are often seen as a failure of of local government networks, often in collaboration with
implementation or a result of corruption, they often originate civil society and international organizations. Formal networks
from conflicting sets of parallel governance.64 include C40 Cities, United Cities and Local Governments,
ICLEI–Local Governments for Sustainability, Metropolis–
8.2.3 International networks for city cooperation World Association of the Major Metropolises, Global Resilient
and learning Cities Network, OECD Champion Mayors for Inclusive Growth
From driving global prosperity to achieving the Sustainable and Mayors Migration Council, among others.70 While in 1985
Development Goals and advancing the New Urban Agenda, there were just 55 city networks, today there are over 200
local governments are integral to building a better world. with multiple sub-groups emerging from the parent networks
This positions cities and its leaders at the forefront of as well.71 The COVID-19 pandemic pivoted the focus of many
sustainable development.65 Cities have nevertheless city networks to issues of health and pandemic response.72
found themselves ill-prepared and lacking the political,
fiscal and administrative capacities to adequately respond These networks can be far-reaching with on-the-ground
to pressing global challenges like rising urban poverty, impact. For example, since 2011, 1 in 12 people globally have
massive inequalities, public health emergencies and the been affected by nearly 10,000 climate and sustainability
looming climate crisis.66 With 93 per cent of COVID-19 initiatives that came from C40 Cities.73 The Making
cases reported in cities at the end of 2020, the COVID-19 Cities Resilient 2030 Platform currently hosts 500 cities
pandemic is a vivid illustration of how cities are vulnerable to representing over 262 million residents.74 This platform
external shocks.67 Without appropriate tools, cities struggle fosters peer-to-peer learning and helps cities fill the gap in
to respond to future shocks and stresses, especially in poor order to build their resilience in financing, capacity building
countries. Global partnerships can help strengthen the or tools for developing a more robust risk management
capacity of national and local governments, such as the lack framework. The Federation of Canadian Municipalities’
of trained urban planners. While developed countries have 1 international programming has helped Canadian local elected
planner for every 1,000–3,000 people, developing countries officials and staff share knowledge and build relationships
such as Indonesia have just 1 planner for every 80,000 with their counterparts in Asia, Africa, the Middle East, Latin
people. Online open access learning materials and peer-to- America, the Caribbean and Eastern Europe.75 As Chapter 5
peer learning and mentoring have emerged both nationally highlighted, addressing climate change effectively, requires
and internationally. building global urban partnerships.
254
The rise of city diplomacy has not been a straightforward 8.2.4. Co-production: integrating the experiences
process but rather is characterized by uncertainty on the level and resources of non-governmental
of recognition and participation of local governments. The institutions
Second United Nations Conference on Human Settlements Governments are not solely responsible for urban development,
(Habitat II) held in 1996 is remembered as groundbreaking planning and implementation.83 No local government,
in terms of the participation of local authorities, the private regardless of the income and development level, can address all
sector, NGOs and other development partners in the design urban challenges in isolation. Accordingly, urban governance
and implementation of the Habitat Agenda.76 Yet, in 2000, involves a plurality of public and private stakeholders, and
with the adoption of the Millennium Development Goals, should be cross-sectoral, including private companies, civil
the international community was silent on the role that society, community associations, local residents and youth-led
local governments should play. This situation changed more organizations. Co-production describes the idea that cities are
in the transition to and the adoption of the Sustainable produced through the intersection of different actors and that
Development Goals when a wide coalition of organizations service delivery benefits from forms of shared ownership and
supported a so-called urban goal, which culminated in the joint knowledge production.84
endorsement of SDG11.77
Formalized relationships between government and civil
While many dimensions of the SDGs require action at the society strengthens communities, particularly those who are
local level, national governments adopted the 2030 Agenda underrepresented, poor or living in informal settlements.
for Sustainable Development. Consequently, national Parallel governance structures, as elaborated on in section 8.2.2,
governments are responsible for reporting their progress can be incorporated into the government. The Communist
toward the goals in a process known as the voluntary Party of China has advanced deeply into grassroots society and
national review (VNR). To complement VNRs, some local developed relations with non-governmental organizations.85
governments, starting with New York City, prepare voluntary One approach emerging globally are local strategic partnerships
local reviews (VLR) as a global tool for cities to report on that bring together a broad network of non-governmental
their progress towards the SDGs and the Paris Agreement.78 organizations to define effective community-led projects with a
While some Member States’ commitment to achieve their proactive approach to improve the quality of life of individuals
global commitments is insufficient, the VLR process has and communities within their jurisdiction.86 Examples include
demonstrated that cities are more than willing to lead the Regional Innovation Councils in Norway and Medical Innovation
way. For example, in Europe, less than 10 per cent of the Centres in the Czech Republic.
Member States have submitted VNRs by 2021, while the
region has the highest number of VLRs. These collaborations bring together cities, universities, non-
governmental organizations and businesses to promote
These reviews highlight the willingness of local, regional and innovation.87 An excellent example of formalized relationships
national governments to engage in the global agenda and can with civil society from the developing world, is the
act as an entry point to strengthen institutional capabilities.79 aforementioned Kudumbashree, which operates as a federation
At present, only 40 per cent of local governments co-create of self-help groups that is led by the government of Kerala.88
their VLRs with their national governments.80 Strengthening Kudumbashree also provides a cautionary tale in integrating
the co-creation of VLRs could therefore provide a low-hanging non-governmental organizations, as during India’s Jawaharlal
fruit in making progress on better coordinated action to achieve Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission, the government
the SDGs. While the VLRs emerged out of, and are prevalent
in, situations of mismatched national and local government
priorities, Finland used the VLR to revitalize multilevel dialogue The future of urban governance
to inform and update their national review in line with key needs to ensure regulation better
drivers of the New Urban Agenda. The VLR process has also reflects the different roles civil
demonstrated its value in developing countries, as evidenced in society plays in society
the city of Freetown, Sierra Leone, which used a VLR as a tool
to map the synergies between local development targets and burdened the NGO with responsibilities that outstripped its
the SDGs.81 Globally, 106 subnational governments submitted capabilities.89 As civil society assumes different roles – as
VLRs by October 2021 and 230 cities are signatories on the service providers, agents for civic engagement, enforcers of
New York City Voluntary Local Review Declaration.82 social accountability and financiers through philanthropy – the
255
future of urban governance needs to ensure regulation better Another expression of co-production is the emergence of
reflects the different roles civil society plays in society.90 living labs or city labs (Box 8.3), which are platforms where
a plurality of stakeholders, often with conflicting opinions,
Within national guidelines, local and territorial governments co-create projects, foster innovation and build capacity
are largely responsible for creating the enabling environment through experimentation. The Baltic Urban Lab project
for collaborative governance with adjacent jurisdictions and for example experimented with a “public-private-people
non-governmental actors. Indeed, one of the areas of biggest partnership” approach for the redevelopment of brownfield
innovation in response to COVID-19 was cooperation and sites in participant cities.94
collaboration across key urban stakeholders including the
introduction of effective measures to facilitate joint action The institutionalization of collaboration between government
between actors from the public sector, private sector, and non-governmental actors is important for building
civil society organizations and community associations.91 trust, understanding and a commitment to collaboration.
For example, Madrid, Spain, challenged local start-ups to For instance, civil society organizations can connect with
develop innovative solutions that addressed the impacts of marginalized residents that do not trust local authorities. In
the pandemic, find solutions to increase the connectivity Canada, this plays out in the relationships between urban
of residents with special needs.92 In Kenya, a collaboration indigenous populations and local governments. For over a
between local government and a number of international and decade, the city of Hamilton, Canada has provided block
private organizations partnered to establish the Youth-led funding directly to indigenous-serving organizations to
COVID-19 Emergency Response Coalition which established identify and address community needs.95
hygiene stations, isolation centres and education programs
in informal settlements across the country.93
Box 8.3: Living Labs: Capacity building through experimentation
A living lab is an experimental site where “active and collaborative people can meet other interested actors and work together
towards innovative solutions to public problems.”96 First established at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the living lab
concept has been spreading globally.97 While the European Network of Living Labs only had 20 members in 2006, by 2020 it noted
474 registered living labs across Europe, as well as examples in other countries such as the Smart Safety Living Lab in the Republic
of Korea or the Future Self Living Lab in Australia.98 By putting conflict front and centre and equipping participants with a “license
to fail,” living labs respond to a key challenge for participatory urban development, namely that different actors can have highly
conflicting viewpoints.
Visitors at De Ceuvel Amsterdam, Netherlands. © https://deceuvel.nl/
256
A particularly noteworthy living lab is De Ceuvel in Amsterdam, a once polluted site at a former shipyard that has become a
“cleantech playground” where social enterprises experiment with circular economy ventures like aquaponics, solar energy,
biofilters and composting toilets. The city of Amsterdam awarded four plots via tender with a mandate to clean up the site. At its
pre-pandemic peak, De Ceuvel saw over 35,000 visitors annually and has received numerous design and sustainability awards99.
Future tenants and volunteers participated in the construction process, which generated a sense of community.100
of addressing social, political and environmental challenges

“Re-municipalization” captures the trend of through concrete public-led and feminist solutions. In the
governments reversing the privatization trend latest manifestation of city-to-city diplomacy as outlined in
of the 1980s and taking back ownership of section 8.2., Barcelona en Comú now has a network of 50
assets and services that had previously been municipalist organizations from 19 countries.108
outsourced
Over the last 20 years, re-municipalization has been
As Chapter 5 of this report described, co-production of documented in 1,600 cities in 45 countries.109 Europe is at
urban services with the involvement of public actors and the forefront of this movement, but examples can be found
citizen groups can overcome persistent challenges. Many globally. Paris is a well-known example having reverted water
governments are indeed revisioning their relationship with service back to public ownership in 2010 and developing
private service providers, and are returning public service partnerships with public service providers in Morocco,
provision to municipal control, especially in urban contexts Mauritania and Cambodia.110 However, challenges to
where the privatization of public goods has hindered access re-municipalization remain; austerity measures have forced
by low-income households. some governments to abandon plans for re-municipalization,
and resistance from powerful multilateral actors make it
The term “re-municipalization” captures the trend of difficult to sustain as a coherent policy movement.111 The
governments reversing the privatization trend of the 1980s city of Berlin provides an instructive case of the lengths that
and taking back ownership of assets and services that private forces will go to resist re-municipalization as private
had previously been outsourced.101 Re-municipalization providers fought for a significant financial compensation
is often associated with the water and energy sector,102 from the government and in doing so imposed a large burden
but re-municipalization extends to transportation, waste on the new public operators and residents.112
management, cleaning, housing, childcare and other broad
service delivery areas.103 Such re-municipalization is often
supported by labour unions, civil society organizations It has become more difficult for non-
and community associations.104 In fact, many flagship governmental organizations to establish and
re-municipalization efforts in France have given seats on operate freely without repression or persecution
the boards of the new public operators to residents and civil
society representatives.105 Barcelona was a signatory with Effective governance for better services and urban
nine other Spanish cities in the Declaration for the Public development often emerge outside of formal procedures
Management of Water, which broadly states that the cities and official administrative structures and bodies. A salient
will assume the responsibility for the provision of and the example is the support given by local and international
protection of water as a common good.106 civil society organizations that advocate for the rights of
slum dwellers such as the People’s Dialogue on Human
Re-municipalization is not mere change in ownership. Rather Settlements, Centre on Housing Rights and Evictions, Ghana
it is a new form of urban governance that reflects collective Federation for the Urban Poor and the Shack/Slum Dwellers
aspirations for social and environmental justice and the International.113 These organizations, in addition to bridging
democratic management of public services.107 The Barcelona the gap between the state and excluded groups through
en Comú coalition, which has governed Barcelona since participative mechanisms, can also advocate for human
2015, distilled these aspirations into a political philosophy rights, rule of law, equal justice for all and collective action
called “municipalism,” in which cities are at the forefront towards common goals.114
257
Unfortunately, the reality on the ground does not always 8.2.5. Creating opportunities for meaningful
reflect an environment conducive to collaboration between resident participation
government and non-governmental actors. It has become Despite the challenging context for civil society highlighted
more difficult for non-governmental organizations to establish in the prior section, meaningful civic participation is closely
and operate freely without repression or persecution. linked to achieving SDG 1 (no poverty), SDG 3 (good health
and well-being), SDG 10 (reduced inequalities) and SDG 17
The Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI), which traces (partnerships for the SDGs).125 The New Urban Agenda aims
processes toward democracy, has for the first time since 2004 to move beyond perfunctory participation and towards urban
recorded more autocratic states than democracies around the governance that identifies residents and communities as
world.115 The 2021 annual assessment by Freedom House important agents of the economic and social development of
of political rights and civil liberties documented the biggest cities. This transformation requires a revision of established
democratic deterioration since 2006, with political rights financial mechanisms to position communities as expert
and civil liberties declining in 73 countries, representing actors in the urban development process.126 The upgrading
75 per cent of the global population.116 According to the of the Ga Mashie district in Accra provides a good example
Varieties of Democracy research group, civil society across of how residents were enabled to take charge of the
the G20 countries has deteriorated.117 The Mo Ibrahim improvement of their own neighbourhood (Box 8.4). When
Report states that the African continent has been going residents contribute to urban strategies it positively affects
through an erosion of civil society and the pandemic has the success of initiatives, particularly in the implementation
worsened the situation.118 Indeed, 38 countries in Africa phase.127
have seen their civic space deteriorate and only 15 have
seen an improvement.119 The CIVICUS Monitor, which Many urban areas suffer from an imbalance of political
annually tracks the rights of civil society organizations in power and insufficient inclusiveness and participation.
each country, highlights that only 4 per cent of the world’s Women, youth, minorities and the urban poor are often
population lives in countries where the rights of civil society excluded from decision-making.128 Across Africa, resident
organizations to operate freely are widely respected.120 For participation has deteriorated significantly over the period of
example in Latin America, the National Council of Cities in 2015–2019, with more than half of the countries following a
Brazil, a multi-sectoral and participatory platform for urban negative trajectory.129 This deterioration disproportionately
policymaking, was recently abolished.121 impacts women who already face barriers to participation.
In fact, the guarantee of civil liberties to African women has
Cities in particular, are places where civil liberties are continued to deteriorate substantially since 2015.130
tested, when people voice dissent through protests or
challenge government practices through other disapproving Meaningful participation between residents and their
behaviour. People living in cities are more likely to translate respective local governments requires an invest-
dissatisfaction with service delivery into discontent with ment of time and relationship development. Participa-
their government than citizens further out on the urban tion can be driven by a need of the local government
periphery.122 to generate better policies or earn legitimacy for its
decisions, but also as an attempt to bring social move-
Despite unwelcoming environments, civil society ments into the state apparatus and reinvent participa-
organizations continue to demonstrate creative ways tory structures to pursue transformative aspirations.131
to participate in civic issues and advocate for the rights However, state-initiated participation is often disre-
of vulnerable populations. In South Sudan, civil society garded in crisis situations. In the future scenarios facing
organizations use elements of performance art and theatre cities, as described in chapter 1, much of the policy-
to demonstrate how to hold those in power accountable.123 making will take place in crisis situations, thus causing
In Palestine, civil society organizations use theatre to a conflict between those in power and the public.132
encourage participation in political processes. In the Online participation, which became popular during the
Democratic Republic of the Congo, civil society organizations COVID-19 pandemic, has strengths and drawbacks. It can
held an election for the leaders of a new network to widen access to residents who could not previously attend
demonstrate that it was possible to hold an election despite in-person gatherings, but it can also be co-opted by non-
repeated delays from the government.124 democratic urban governance forces. In this scenario,
the public is presented with alternatives that have been
258
Box 8.4: How community participation built new roads for Old Accra
Under the aegis of UN-Habitat’s Participatory Slum Upgrading Programme (PSUP), the old town of Accra has been upgraded
since 2008 through community participation in three different ways. First, the community was closely involved in setting the
goals for the upgrading, namely improvement of roads, sewerage networks and sanitation. Second, the community was put in
charge of managing the funds for the upgrading through the Ga Mashie Development Committee. This democratically elected
body manages a fund through which community groups apply for grants to implement projects in the settlements and has set
up a micro-finance guarantee facility with a local bank for affordable business loans to benefit youth and women. Thirdly, an
important component of its community participation is the training and capacity building of its residents. Through training and
hiring, local residents are employed and gain the skills to become craftspeople. By 2019, the Ga Mashie Development Committee
had more than 5,000 members and had improved public space, urban safety and flood risk for over 100,000 residents.
defined by the government and exclude proposals from

citizens or nongovernmental actors, so that participation
becomes tokenistic and does not meaningfully influence
the decision-making process.133
Participatory planning can invite Not In My Back Yard

(NIMBY) rhetoric. For example, new affordable housing
developments in the United States are often challenged and
impeded through participatory processes whereby existing
residents register their objections to new construction.134
A key challenge for the future of urban governance is how to
balance genuine residents’ concerns to protect their quality
of life with necessary transformations in transportation and
housing while taking into account historical socioeconomic
inequalities.
These concerns highlight the need for a combination of

participatory processes between those that are instituted
by government and those that are catalysed by residents.
Urban governance for the future of cities will need to be
more communicative, transparent and participatory in
order to rebuild a social contract between the state and
the public that is strong enough to withstand multiple and
complex challenges in the future. A promising example that
has withstood the test of time and continues to evolve is
participatory budgeting. By providing residents with an
opportunity to peer into city budgets and deliberate over Interchange in Ghana © Shutterstock
how to allocate funds, cities build social capital and public
buy-in on the most basic of government functions: raising
and spending revenue. Participatory budgeting originated $30 million for a participatory budgeting exercise focused
from Brazil, but has since sparked countless iterations on dismantling systemic racism through investments in
globally, both in the developed and developing world. For housing, education and healthcare in minority communities
example, Boston youth have allocated $1 million of public that will begin in 2022.136 Both the Republic of Korea and
funds annually since 2014 for capital projects on city China have mandated participatory budgeting, though there
property.135 More recently, the city of Seattle earmarked continues to be variability in specific applications of this tool.
259
As highlighted in Chapter 3, slum upgrading in partnership fiscal arrangements are prerequisites for and indicators of
with informal settlement communities helps to harness effective urban governance.144 The bare minimum for
their skills and lived experiences. Similarly, effective effective urban governance is that available budgets meet
participatory upgrading is hard to achieve in isolation and the scope of responsibilities assigned to local governments
is enabled by other transformations of urban governance. through decentralization, but ideally would also include
The participatory upgrading of Mukuru in Nairobi (see revenue for investment in development and growth. The
also chapter 7) provides a clear example of the enabling COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted that limited autonomy
role of decentralization and legal frameworks. Mukuru’s lowers local government’s ability to respond quickly in
participatory upgrading was enabled by decentralization the best interest of urban residents. After suffering from
introduced much prior under the 1998 Local Authorities pandemic-induced economic contraction, Johannesburg,
and Transfer Fund, which redistributed 5 per cent of national South Africa, provides a promising example as the national
tax revenues to local authorities.137 The 2015 Nairobi City government’s relaxation of spending restrictions allowed
County Public Participation Act and the 2016 Community local decision-makers to reallocate some budget items to
and Neighbourhood Associations Engagement Act provides meet emergent and urgent needs.145
a clear legal framework that shifted the top-down nature
of earlier participatory processes, which were initially The key message in financing for sustainable urban
dominated by local chiefs and leaders, to a more inclusive governance is that the revenue local governments can raise
form of participation.138 through taxes will always be insufficient to keep up with
the required infrastructure and service delivery needs. The
The New Urban Agenda highlights that participatory municipal financing gap in Africa alone is estimated at US$25
processes should recognize the specific needs of those in billion per year.146 Prior to the pandemic, it was estimated
vulnerable situations. Local governments are strategically that LIDCs need to increase their spending by roughly
positioned to facilitate the role of intermediaries or access 12 per cent of GDP to achieve the SDG’s. The economic
points and act as a conduit for the marginalized and setbacks caused by the pandemic now put that number at
disadvantaged groups within urban settings to meaningfully roughly 14 per cent of GDP.147
participate in the decision-making that impacts their
lives.139 In some situations, the most effective role for local The revenue sources for local governments generally fall
government is to create a space for collaboration around a into three broad categories: grants and subsidies, tax
locally identified need and then allow for other local actors to revenue, and user charges and fees. On average, tax revenue
take the lead. However, this is not a call for the privatization of represents 32.7 per cent of local government funding (Figure
services which dramatically undermine cities’ inclusiveness 8.4). In OECD countries, fiscal decentralization over the last
and sustainability.140 In Langrug, an informal settlement in few decades has given subnational governments greater
Stellenbosch, South Africa, a citywide urban poor platform economic importance.148 However, in some countries, such
and finance mechanism was created to fund projects as Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania, tax revenue accounts for less
identified and prioritized by residents. Each block within than 5 per cent of subnational revenue.149 As discussed in
Langrug oversaw project implementation like the installation Chapter 8 of the World Cities Report 2020, property taxes
of flush toilets or the creation of play areas.141 In contexts have significant potential as they are under-utilized in many
where participation is not meaningful or invited, civil society cities, primarily in low- and middle-income countries (Figure
organizations have an opportunity to demonstrate and 8.4), in part because of limited human resources as well as
agitate for forms of participatory, deliberative and direct out-of-date property registers and cadastral maps.
democracy.142
National governance frameworks often limit local
8.2.6. Financing for sustainable and resilient futures governments in their ability to expand local revenues.
The scale and ambition of the SDGs and the New Urban According to a 2016 database, 36 per cent of city
Agenda require new thinking on how urban development governments could not change or introduce new local
is financed, as addressed in chapter 4, which covers the taxes, and only 15 per cent of cities had the mandate to
diversification of municipal finance in detail. Insufficient both introduce and change local taxes, with the remainder
budgets and fiscal uncertainty are among the biggest urban dependent on higher levels of government.150 When local
governance challenges cited globally.143 An appropriate taxes are subsumed by the national government, such as
combination of endogenous financing and intergovernmental in China, local governments often seek their own revenue
260
Figure 8.4: Share of revenue for subnational governments
Grants and User charges

0% subsidies and fees Other Tax revenue 100%
High income
Upper-middle income
Lower-middle income
Lower income
Africa
Asia and Pacific
Europe and North America
Latin America
Middle East and West Asia
Data sourced from OECD and UCLG, 2019.
through speculative land development to fill the gap.151 This cities in development countries are responsible for only 2
type of incentive should be avoided and local governments per cent of all green bonds issued since 2007.158
should instead focus on tax collection efficiency, as well
as promote transparency, accountability, participation and The consequences of a national government assessing
performance-based incentives to build autonomy.152 the risk and cancelling access to municipal debt markets
highlights the need for clearer and more effective regulatory
To supplement revenues, governments must lean into frameworks.159 The risks associated with borrowing can
financing from the private sector, debt financing and pooled partially be alleviated by developing funding sources and
borrowing.153 Most of these mechanisms require subnational policies in parallel to developing a vision for intervention
governments to achieve creditworthiness and national and investment.160 Multilevel governance can also lower
governments to relax rules regarding local government risks, as the involvement of multiple orders of government
borrowing. Less than 20 per cent of the 500 largest cities and alignment with a national urban policy provides national
in developing countries are deemed creditworthy and less governments confidence to relax rules around borrowing
than 20 per cent of all cities in developing countries can at the local level. In fact, smaller and secondary cities may
issue bonds to local investors.154 Even when cities do have need to pool their credit requirements or enhance their
their financial house in order, they can face obstacles from credit quality through bond banks, loan pools and guarantees
national government for political reasons. For example, the to reduce risk and attract lenders.161 A simple, innovative
Ministry of Economy and Finance of Senegal blocked the example has emerged out of Colombia in their public
city of Dakar from issuing its first-ever municipal bond in ratings of municipalities’ subnational debt.162 Borrowing
2015. This move came despite a local public expenditure is prohibited for so-called “red-light municipalities” whose
and financial accountability review, and after Dakar had ratio of interest to operational savings exceeds 40 per cent
improved its credit rating and secured a 50 per cent partial and whose ratio of debt stock to current revenues exceeds
risk guarantee.155 80 per cent. “Green-light municipalities” can borrow
uninhibited and “yellow-light municipalities” can borrow
From a 2016 survey of 127 cities (self-reporting), 87 per with approval from the central government.
cent of cities had borrowed money over the last 10 years,
yet only 21 per cent of these cities could borrow without Local government finances are supplemented with grants and
legal limit set by their national government.156 Green subsidies from higher levels of government, international
bonds have gained traction to finance climate action, more organizations (e.g. European Union) and international aid,
than quadrupling between 2016 and 2021.157 In 2013, which combined represent on average 51 per cent of their
Johannesburg became the first city in the C40 Cities Climate income (Figure 8.4).163 However, only 1.3 per cent of total
Leadership Group to issue a green bond. However, green bilateral development assistance is provided to cities and
bonds are primarily issued by national governments and regions. 164
261
In light of this low figure, new city-to-city networks are Despite their poor record of delivery, privatization and public-
pioneering decentralized development cooperation as private-partnerships are still widely promoted as solutions for
an innovative form of participatory cooperation that cash-strapped local governments in low-, middle- and high-
bypasses central governments.165 With an estimated 70 income countries.168 In middle- and high- income countries,
per cent of cities across donor and developing countries privatization has increased alongside austerity policies. In low-
engaged in peer-to-peer exchanges, including cross-border income countries, privatization is promoted under the guise of
partnerships, the enabling environment for decentralized development aid, forcing governments to engage in complex
development cooperation is growing.166 While the liminal and costly PPPs instead of building effective public services.169
nature of decentralized development cooperation can One response to these concerns is the shift towards public-
lower accountability and potentially exacerbate inequality, private-people partnerships (4P), which institutionalize the
there are innovative approaches that deserve pursuit. For involvement of people into development projects. The World
example, the European Committee of Regions organized Urban Forum 9 report suggests that international institutions
a so-called “decentralized stock exchange” that pools should promote public ownership, public banks and in-house
members’ expertise and promotes access to subnational government management of essential urban public services
financing in developing countries through financing rather than public-private partnerships, private sector
instruments that reduce the risk of investment.167 financing, city benchmarking and philanthropy.170
A Road under construction in Nairobi, Kenya. © NoyanYalcin/Shutterstock
262
8.3. Emerging Urban Governance essential to cope with the most pressing challenges of
Responses to Five Pervasive sustainable development, namely pandemics and other
Challenges health crises, climate change, the risk of armed conflict,
extreme poverty, socioeconomic inequalities and rapid
The pace and scale of global urbanization continues to technological advancement, among others. To be sure,
outpace the ability of governments to plan and provide these challenges do not recognize political nor jurisdictional
services for all, especially in low- and middle- income boundaries. Cities with integrated metropolitan governance
countries. Current modes of urbanization are stretching the and management systems are better prepared to plan for,
boundaries of cities, blurring jurisdictional lines and leading prevent and respond to urban challenges. COVID-19
to a lack of clarity about who handles emerging challenges. reinforced metropolitan governance as a necessary approach
UN-Habitat identified four major shocks facing cities globally, for advancing balanced and sustainable urban and territorial
namely climate change, extreme poverty and inequality, the development.176 The territorialization of the COVID-19
fourth industrial revolution and COVID-19. In order to steer response through regional planning and the use of small and
cities towards the optimistic scenario outlined in Chapter 1, secondary cities as subregional health responses to reach out
the necessary urban governance responses to these shocks to rural communities served as a key mechanism to respond
must also acknowledge the reality of unplanned growth and to the pandemic.
the blending of urban, peri-urban and rural areas.171 While
the human impact of each of these shocks, individually and One approach to improving clarity within multilevel
collectively, are discussed in other chapters, they provide a governance for urban development is the development
framework to explore emerging urban governance strategies and implementation of a national urban policy (NUP).
to ensure local government is prepared to address them. The World Cities Report 2020 showed that NUP’s gained
prominence as important guiding instruments to promote
8.3.1. Blurring lines of urban jurisdictions and coherent and consistent urbanization within a country’s
boundaries boundaries. Both the 2030 Agenda and the New Urban
Urban extension has surpassed urban population growth Agenda advocate for the importance of NUPs. While NUPs
globally and, due to that expansion, many cities have grown are an important first step, the 2022 Quadrennial Report
beyond the boundaries of their central municipality.172 on the Implementation of the New Urban Agenda observed
Neighbouring municipalities have agglomerated into that an uptick in adoption of NUPs has not yet translated
contiguous urban regions and peri-urban and rural to impact on the ground. In much of Africa urban plans
hinterlands have become more connected. Chapter 2 are being used to attract the private sector both locally
highlighted the rise of these urban areas, while Chapter 6 and internationally to invest in sustainability projects
discussed sprawl as a driving factor for this spatial extension. that unfortunately do not substantially improve public
Bridging geographic scales is increasingly difficult when infrastructure.177 This mismatch indicates that policy
the administrative boundaries do not match the functional coherence through a NUP is a necessary but insufficient
integration of metropolitan regions.173 In Africa, the ability condition for effective multilevel governance.
of local governments to control urban sprawl is often limited
by lands being under the customary ownership and authority There are however also promising examples. The 2015
of traditional leaders.174 Informal settlements on the edge National Urbanization Policy of Rwanda exemplifies
of urban jurisdictions are vulnerable to eviction due to country-level response. That NUP is further echoed in the
unclear regulatory frameworks, as was demonstrated by a Urbanization and Rural Settlement Sector Strategic Plan
recent large-scale eviction in India.175 Sustainable urban 2018-2024, which promotes better management of urban
governance can only be achieved when effective regional sprawl into peri-urban and rural areas.178 The plan aims
planning systems are institutionalized, such as through to achieve that goal through improvements to transport
metropolitan governance or through national urban policies. services that connect urban and rural areas and by enhancing
the opportunities presented by the increasing demand for
The global metropolitan phenomena that impact cities of horticultural and livestock products while mitigating the
any size and territorial characteristics force us to revisit and resource depletion and other environmental impacts at the
adapt urban governance and management frameworks. New edge of urban sprawl.179 Additionally, Rwanda has a national
approaches based on cooperation, solidarity and collective roadmap for green secondary cities that was developed and
action between local and neighbouring governments are aligned with the aforementioned plans.180
263
8.3.2. Pandemic and health crisis response States, led to low levels of national coordination between
The current COVID-19 pandemic is not the first, nor will it be the state level responses.184 While lockdowns were often
last, major crisis that will challenge urban governance systems. initiated by national or state governments, it was ultimately
Chapter 1 discusses the rise of zoonotic diseases as new layers up to local governments to enforce them.
of health risks that the world is increasingly experiencing and
will be an ongoing feature of urban governance. The pervasive presence of public health emergencies globally
indicates the need for accountability and transparency in
A threat anywhere is a threat everywhere and no one is public health governance to ensure health equity. However,
safe until everyone is safe.181 Indeed, the World Health based on recent representative research, it is estimated that
Organization highlights both the moral imperative and around 800 million people pay bribes to health services
the practical considerations in ensuring equitable urban every year.185 Corruption in the health sector is estimated
governance towards managing current and future pandemics to kill approximately 140,000 children annually and impedes
and health crises.182 the global fight against diseases like HIV/AIDS.186 A recent
publication estimates that US$500 billion in public health
Health equity, as highlighted in chapter 7, is an urban spending is lost globally to corruption every year, enough to
governance challenge that requires a multilevel approach achieve universal health coverage.187
with better collaboration between government departments
and non-state actors supporting monitoring and evaluation Evidence has shown that cities with a more equitable and
in expenditures and service delivery. A scoping survey by accessible distribution of basic services were better able
the Emergency Governance Initiative, which included 57 to protect vulnerable and high-risk communities from the
cities in 35 countries, revealed that difficulty of working beginning. Equitable and well-planned cities that address
across different tiers of government was the most pressing spatial inequalities and provide equitable access to basic
challenge in dealing with the pandemic (Figure 8.5).183 services and infrastructure are more resilient to the shocks
Politicized response to the pandemic in Brazil and the United caused by pandemics.188 Research has noted that cities with
Children wash their hands at a facility put up in Kibera slum, Nairobi, Kenya@UN-Habitat/Kirsten Milhahn
264
more autonomy in local government are better positioned to 8.3.3. Climate change
respond to health care crisis with contextualized knowledge and As discussed in Chapter 5, greenhouse gas emissions
experiment with different approaches and service delivery.189 continue to rise globally, of which cities are responsible
For example, Guangzhou, China, hired nearly 80,000 residents for over 70 per cent. While addressing global emissions
to conduct community patrols for containment measures and will require national and supranational actions, cities are
countries like Germany and Republic of Korea allowed local central to adaptation and mitigation efforts. The optimal
governments to undertake healthcare implementation.190 level of decentralization of climate policy is context-specific
with local governments facing restrictions to environmental
National urban policies are an urban governance tool that taxes and weak capacity to deliver on climate mandates.193
supports balanced and coherent urban development. They The Coalition for Urban Transitions suggests that by 2050
help bridge policy silos and can be leveraged to anticipate and local governments can reduce urban emissions by one-third
respond to the implications of COVID-19 and future public through their own actions and another one-third through
health related shocks.191 They are especially important for collaboration with national governments.194 In developing
secondary cities and their access to national level supports and countries, climate policy is not a well understood area of
territorial cooperation in the face of public health challenges. practice to many local governments and as a result, very
For example, one key to the National Urban Development few stakeholders understand the importance of considering
Policy 2018-30 of Costa Rica is the articulation of a network climate change in city planning.195 Further, the time horizons
of intermediate cities to allow sharing and capitalize on best are not aligned with government timeframes and electoral
practices, learning and financing opportunities.192 cycles provide political cover for inaction.
Government interventions in the interest of public health Chapter 5 also discusses climate-related extreme disasters,
can cause economic and social costs as well as impact urban which have increased significantly in recent years,196
residents’ routines, mental health and social security. While while the number of globally displaced people rose above
curfews, lockdowns and restricting where people gather have 65 million in 2017, almost twice the level from 20 years
proven effective at limiting the spread of COVID-19, less costly
and more trust-based approaches have only been marginally
less effective. These include risk communication strategies, Research has noted that
promoting social distancing and workplace safety measures, cities with more autonomy in
encouraging self-isolation when symptomatic, and travel local government are better
warnings. Inclusive urban governance needs to assess the risks positioned to respond to
and costs for all urban residents of responses to health crises. health care crisis
Figure 8.5: Governance challenges and innovations during the COVID-19 pandemic
Governance challenges referenced during Live learning Experiences

Number of mentions by participating cities and regions
Difficulty of working across

different tiers of government
Lack of access to useful

and/or reliable information
Politicization of the
emergence response
Inflexible bureacracies/
rigid rules
Insufficient public budgets
Lack of municipal
autonomy
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
265
Emergency governance innovations referenced during Live Learning Experiences

Number of mentions by participating cities and regions
Communication and
consultation
Public participation and
inclusion
Cooperation and collaboration
across key stakeholders
Information technology and data
management
Coordination and integration across
governmental units
Transparency,
accountability and integrity
Finances and resources
Gender and governance
Local response and strategic

direction
Knowledge and skills
Monitoring and evaluation
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Source: Emergency Governance Initiative, 2020.
ago,197 which poses severe governance challenges. The Climate and environmental challenges require co-ordination
Mayors Migration Council (MMC), a mayor-led advisory and beyond local, regional and national territorial scales and
advocacy organization on migration and displacement, has into supranational policy frameworks.200 A recent survey on
called for a range of actions in the realm of urban resilience, national urban policies found unique supranational policy
urban inclusion and urban transformation to address climate- frameworks in distinct contexts that respond to local needs.
change induced migration, such as the need to “modify For example, Luxembourg is engaged in a cross-border
national legislation to allow the integration of informal co-operation policy with France in response to the joint
workers – including migrants and displaced people – into needs of the Alzette Belval conurbation.201 The Netherlands
green development plans.”198 has had country-to-country agreements for many years
focused on river management and urbanized delta areas.202
A further urban governance challenge is to (re)invent public In these emerging supranational agreements, national urban
services for the future of cities to address the challenges of policies play an important role in providing a basis to guide
meeting basic needs while adapting and mitigating climate the priorities of the international policymaking process.203
change impacts. Co-production and re-municipalization are A risk-based decision-making model favouring integration
two governance tools to ensure that energy, water, waste and long-term planning with appropriate local, community,
and transport are simultaneously meeting the needs of the national and supranational governance structures is essential
most vulnerable residents and reducing the environmental for mitigating and adapting to climate change.
footprint of cities. In contrast to the ever-increasing prices
and environmental impacts of corporate operations in the 8.3.4. Extreme poverty and inequality
energy sector, new local public companies and co-operatives, As highlighted in Chapter 3, extreme poverty and inequality
like Hamburg Energie (Hamburg, Germany) and Kauai remain pervasive urban challenges. With outdated territorial
Island Utility Cooperative (Kauai, US) have been developing demarcations due to unplanned urban expansion, public
renewable energy sources in a way that lowers cost and interests are poorly represented and the urban poor are often
improves service to all residents.199 geographically, economically and socially excluded and most
vulnerable to challenges.204 In many parts of the world, urban
governance arrangements are attuned to middle classes,
while the urban poor are left behind. Land that is illegally
A further urban governance challenge is to (re) occupied by affluent residents may be tolerated, while the
invent public services for the future of cities urban poor are evicted from slums that have been formally
266
of sustainable and inclusive cities. Technologies create

Land that is illegally occupied by affluent
exciting possibilities to enhance the well-being of residents,
residents may be tolerated, while the urban poor
improve environmental management and contribute to
are evicted from slums that have been formally
economic development. The positive and negative disruptive
registered for decades
consequences of social media and other big tech platforms,
artificial intelligence, the internet of things, big data and
registered for decades. The term “aesthetic governmentality” blockchain will play out in urban areas and influence city
refers to urban governance that manipulates the law based management and service delivery.
on standards of appearance and nuisance, rather than the
rights of the urban poor.205 Governments, especially in low- and middle-income country
contexts, cannot be passive recipients of technological
It is pertinent for governments to fully acknowledge and innovation. National leaders recognize that intersectoral
invest in slum dwellers and their organizations as true city planning requires good statistical and geospatial data,
development partners. For example, Shack/Slum Dwellers which is not currently accessible to local governments.
International and the Asian Coalition for Housing Rights The normative advantages to technology too often lead
alone have over 800,000 members and operate across 698 to technological solutionism, or finding a problem for an
cities in 48 countries.206 The Poverty Reduction Fund of externally devised solution.211 Technological solutionism is
Lao PDR recognized the importance of collaboration with also connected to the fantasy of the smart city as a magical
slum dwellers and invested in community-led initiatives that solution to all urban problems, which ends up making the
resulted in nearly 900,000 slum dwellers with increased governance of core urban problems even more opaque.212
access to basic services.207 Given that regulating technology is often outside of the
jurisdiction of local governments, this challenge reiterates
Non-governmental institutions including formal organizations the need for multilevel governance.
and loose mutual aid associations have also created innovative
forms of governance while both collaborating with and In addition to governing through the use of technologies as
operating outside of formal government.208 Micro-finance discussed in Chapter 9, the potential abuse of technology
and community savings groups play a role in closing the will create challenges. Globally there are already examples
gaps caused by insufficient public and private investment. of exploitation of big data and usage beyond its original
Many mutual aid networks stepped in during the pandemic and agreed upon scope, increasing privacy and security
to coordinate and distribute critical resources that address concerns.213 The absence of public oversight and
government and market failures. For example, in Thailand, accountability on the extensive data records of individuals
over 1,400 food pantries emerged providing a place for people and communities raises concerns around privacy,
to donate food and supplies to those in need.209 Others are
collaborating with the public authorities, like Mask Map in
Taiwan, which is driven by government-provided mask and
pharmacy data to provide real-time information on mask
availability. This information by public authorities is taken by
a civic hacking organization and coordinated, maintained and
published for public consumption.210
8.3.5. Ubiquitous data and frontier technology

While access to, and the availability of, frontier technologies
are uneven in cities around the world, this is undoubtedly a
global issue for urban governance to address in the pursuit
It is pertinent for governments to fully

acknowledge and invest in slum dwellers
and their organizations as true development Adoption of renewable energy in cities is a means of lowering urban emissions and the
partners effect on climate. © artjazz/Shutterstock
267
surveillance, data sovereignty and individual autonomy. An emerging question is how does “smart” technology
Human rights obligations apply online as they do offline. investment contribute to sustainable development rather
Using principles like those found in the Open Smart Cities than take away from it? Creating completely new “smart
Guide, the result of a year long collaborative research cities” instead of investing in the upgrading of infrastructure
project in Canada, ensures that emerging technologies are in existing cities drains the capacity of local government and
governed in a way that is ethical, collaborative, accountable competes with resources from the rest of the city.221 For
and transparent regardless of the urban stakeholders that example, Konza Techno City outside of Nairobi and Hope
own the initiative.214 The OECD highlights the need for City in the Greater Accra Region take away from investment
re-regulation over deregulation in the era of emerging in existing urban areas.222 Critically, smart cities are
technologies.215 often developed through the parallel governance of newly
established corporations and often lack accountability to
the public the way an elected government is.223 So, what
8.4. Divergent Urban Governance Futures does the future of technology in urban governance look
like in the future? Are technology and democracy locked in
Long-term prospects as outlined in Chapter 2 point to a world conflict? There are two predominant scenarios for the future
that will continue to urbanize, with urban areas expected to application of technology in urban governance.
absorb virtually all future population growth globally. A recent
report defines transformative change in urban governance as First, private-sector led growth that prioritizes new technology
“lasting change that enhances access to urban services and leads to increased investment directed away from core
opportunities while improving institutional practices and services and increased risk of privacy consequences. Chapter
outcomes across multiple urban sectors and enduring across 6 of the World Cities Report 2020 indicated that the global
political administrations.”216 These scenarios introduce demand for smart cities was growing rapidly, reaching US$1
potential urban futures based on current urban governance trillion in 2019 and an estimated US$3.48 trillion by 2026.
trends that have the potential for increasing resilience and There is also the tendency for the design of online services
sustainability in line with the optimistic scenario of Chapter and infrastructure to be guided by the technologies available
1 or causing dire consequences that would lead to the high rather than resident needs.224 The deification of technology
damage scenario of Chapter 1. occupies mainstream policy and has resulted in a close union
between governments and private technology companies
8.4.1. The potentials and pitfalls of technologically- that are driven by entrepreneurialism and profit-seeking
mediated future cities public-private partnerships.225 As discussed in Section 8.3.5,
Smart city technology promises to generate economic, combatting this tendency will require a combination of new
social and environmental value through a connection regulations and adapting existing regulations to ensure that
of urban services and infrastructure by emerging and corporate players do not have inappropriate access to data
existing technologies. While the possibility of realizing and unfair advantages in the competition to supply the public
this value exists, there is limited evidence that smart sector with technology. 226
technologies are enhancing social well-being, building just
and equitable communities and reducing environmental The second and more preferable scenario is that of smart,
degradation.217 Technology in and of itself is neutral, but sustainable cities that facilitate healthier and more inclusive
its development and application is full of human bias. cities. The application of ICT in cities requires care to
For example, facial recognition algorithms have been avoid empowering corporate interests and further exclude
demonstrated to have racial bias that is already causing those already marginalized by prevailing technocratic
problems in its application.218 Chapter 9 highlights an and entrepreneurial approaches to urban governance.227
important distinction for the governance of smart cities, Technology development and use that is fit for purpose,
namely the development of new infrastructure versus inclusive, transparent and accountable can lead to sustainable
the improvement of existing infrastructure. This debate and resilient urban futures, but it is a process that will take
is the macro-level expression of the linear production time and it will not be as flashy as corporate-led investments.
model (“take-make-dispose”) versus a closed production For example, a more inclusive approach to smart city
cycle emphasizing repair, recover, reuse and recycle.219 governance may lie in the development of “digital twins”
Already, there is a global annual deficit of infrastructure of existing cities, or virtual models that allow for real-time
investment worth US$3.3 trillion.220 urban management.228
268
8.4.2. Can decentralization survive global decentralization with some explicit recentralization reforms,
pandemics and climate change? primarily as a result of austerity policies.237 Hungary is
Centralization or decentralization, which one has proven a frequently used example in its recentralization efforts
to be more effective during the COVID-19 pandemic and between 2011 and 2012, with the central government
what approach will countries take to build sustainability and rewriting the Local Government Act and retaking control
resilience against future shocks? Two divergent scenarios of many functions previously exercised by subnational
may unfold: one with accelerated decentralization to city-led governments.238 While recentralization is largely considered
urban governance and one of recentralization to national or a regression for urban governance, there are suggestions that
centralized metropolitan governments. the enhanced control of national government has boosted
bargaining power of subnational jurisdictions as well as
Decentralization has long been upheld as a trend that enhances increased their ability to influence national policymaking.
democracy as well as ushers in greater accountability,
proximity and civic participation. A decentralized approach 8.4.3 Addressing the trust equation
means there is no single point of failure as is the case in Crises test people’s trust in their governments and
centralized governance.229 This holds true from a public institutions, especially as they persist without a clear end
health and an economic perspective as local governments in sight causing social and economic impacts to deepen and
are well-positioned to support entrepreneurs and business in individual freedoms are restricted. Indeed, the COVID-19
mitigating the economic consequences of global shocks.230 pandemic has demonstrated that trust in urban governance
In their manifesto, Fearless Cities, the Global Municipalist institutions is crucial for the success of the responses
Movement argues that decentralization has not gone far against impending threats. This section poses two divergent
enough.231 In re-establishing closer connections between scenarios: one of a future with trust in public institutions
residents and governments, decentralizing governance to and one with a continued erosion of that trust.
the city level may not be enough, as some large metropolitan
governments, such as Chongqing, China, and Tokyo, Japan, Political stability and attempts to mitigate crisis are
have populations larger than most countries. The United undermined when residents encounter corruption and
Nations University suggests that beyond public health, lose faith in their government’s ability to provide basic
decentralization is imperative for migrants as the negative services.239 Even prior to the current pandemic, there was a
impact on global GDP will cause more people to move in lack of trust globally in most urban governance institutions,
search of safety and opportunity.232 Research demonstrates including business leaders, civil society organizations and the
that the overall effectiveness of local government has a media.240 Violations of land and housing rights put a major
direct impact on anti-immigrant sentiment and well-managed strain on building trust. Despite calls by the international
services contribute to positive intergroup relations.233 community to halt displacements,241 evictions continued
throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. The Housing and Land
While decentralization has been described as a “revolution” Rights Network documented the forced eviction of close
in governance and a priority for global institutions and to 10 million people between January and October 2020
literature for the past three decades, the results have been alone.242 As long as such practices continue, trust between
unequal. A pervasive argument against decentralization is residents and government will not be regained. Citizens that
that some of the worst examples of corruption are found live further out in the urban-rural periphery tend to trust
at the local level where politicians and administrators their governments more and are more likely to evaluate
enjoy minimal oversight.234 Oversight by higher levels or both local and national officials positively.243 When trust in
different spheres of government can provide accountability municipal urban governance is lost, residents can turn to
in the planning process, but the line between oversight parallel forms of governance (section 8.2.2).244
and corrupt interference is slippery.235 The technical staff
within a government responsible for planning and the daily
management of services risk being ousted by local political
elites when their interests do not align. Despite calls by the
international community to
The impact of decentralization to enhance economic growth halt displacements, evictions
has been questioned since the early 2000s.236 Later, the continued throughout the
2008 global financial crisis tested countries’ commitment to COVID-19 pandemic
269
Evidence of corruption or a mishandling in the interest of a across 35 countries on all continents indicated that many
select few can undermine the ability to effectively respond governments have been focusing on finding new ways to
to crisis situations and deepens the social and economic assure residents that they can be relied upon in times of
impact.245 Further, even the perception of corruption has a crisis.250 One recent pathway for governments to rebuild
negative impact on trust in, or the perceived legitimacy of, trust is the Open Government Partnership Local initiative,251
governance institutions.246 A survey indicated that over 60 which assists governments in their efforts to turn to open
per cent of responding city governments in Africa and Latin government principles, expand and facilitate access to
America and the Caribbean, considered “lack of trust in local public information, increase transparency and accountability
government” and “risks of corruption” relevant to highly of decision-makers and introduce co-creation into public
relevant as an urban governance challenge247. According policies with the ultimate goal of creating or rebuilding trust
to a recent study, nearly half of South African and almost in the public sector. 252
three-quarters of Zambian urban planners surveyed are faced
with pressure to ignore or violate planning rules, policies or Building trust also means building capacity of local planning
procedures.248 offices. When there are few qualified planners and public
pay is low and irregular, there is increased risk of planners
According to Wellcome Global Monitor 2020, trust in public working on private commissions alongside their public
institutions is highly variable around the world and does not responsibility.253 The integration of mechanisms to ensure
neatly align to income categories (Figure 8.6).249 Improving transparency and the protection of the common good are
trust is not dependent on increased economic performance important within situations of crisis to ensure that emergency
and trustworthy institutions can be built regardless of the measures are accountable and proportional. Other means
countries income level. A recent survey of local governments for building trust are reflected in the Open Contracting
Figure 8.6. Share of people who trust their national government
Source: Wellcome Trust, 2021.
270
Partnership254 or to commitments made around data and of government and their networks closest to the people.
information transparency like the Open Data Charter.255 In some cases, that means the development priorities are
community-led and community financed with a hands-off
approach by government. Globally, cities are learning from,
8.5. Concluding Remarks and Lessons for and in some cases being funded by, international networks
Policy and cooperation. These networks, in addition to providing
knowledge exchange opportunities, are also providing
The disruptive nature of COVID-19 is a stark reminder that smaller cities with a platform to have their perspectives
urban governance needs to be prepared for a dynamic and heard and advocated for.
unpredictable future. The fluid nature of the pandemic
exposed existing resource and capacity deficits in cities Collaboration across levels of government, private sector,
alongside their vulnerability to public health and climate civil society, academia and other stakeholders is surely to be
change shocks. The disproportionate impact that systemic part of the new norm and must be initiated to bridge the
disruptions have on people with multiple deprivations capacity constraints of each stakeholder group to respond
highlights the need for a spatial justice lens to be applied individually to urban challenges. This type of collaboration
to future urban planning and service design to ensure that will require recognition that values the strengths individual
benefits and vulnerabilities are distributed proportionately institutions bring to the collaboration. It will also require
across distinct geographies and income levels. Globally, local governments to rethink the relationship between state
urban governance must become better prepared to predict, actors and non-governmental actors, including residents. As
prevent, detect, assess and effectively respond to public global shocks and uncertainty arises, the need for legitimacy
health and climate change shocks in a highly coordinated, and trust in institutions is crucial. Rebuilding trust requires
yet localized manner. National urban policies and effective a commitment from all urban governance organizations to
legal frameworks have demonstrated effectiveness in both effective and open communication, meaningful participation
aligning urban development priorities within member states, opportunities that centre systemically excluded populations,
but also lending structure to international agreements to and accountability structures built into integrated governance
combat the challenges like climate change that do not respect relationships. There is a need to both institutionalize
jurisdictional authority. No single government or multilateral resilience planning strategies and create space for urban
agency can address such threats alone. governance models to adapt and be flexible in how they
allocate resources.
There is evidence that systems and structures built in
response to previous pandemics and weather-related
disasters were effective in mitigating the impacts of COVID-
19. Many of these systems and structures rely on data and
digital technologies to increase the ability of governments
to make real-time, evidence-based decisions. It is imperative
that international support and national urban plans centre
the creation, use and reuse of data and the creation of
data governance frameworks so that urban governance
organizations build their capacity across the data lifecycle.
The battle for sustainable development will be won or lost in

cities. While urban governance is a multilevel, cross-sectoral
and integrated project, a country’s level of decentralization,
especially fiscal autonomy, will affect local government’s
ability to effectively facilitate the required collaboration and
cooperation. There is an emerging consensus in the benefit
and necessity of public-public cooperation whereby decision-
making for urban development is stewarded by the level
271
Endnotes
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54. OECD and UCLG, 2019, p. 38. 117. Anheier et al, 2019. 2020. 244. Swapan and Khan, 2021.
55. Avis, 2016. 118. Mo Ibrahim Foundation, 2020. 182. WHO, 2021c, p. v. 245. IMF, 2021.
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272
Chapter 9:
Innovation and Technology: Towards
Knowledge-Based Urban Futures
273
Innovation and Technology: Towards Knowledge-Based Urban Futures
Quick facts
1. Innovation and technology play an increasingly central role in planning for sustainable urban
futures.
2. Digitalization and automation are rapidly transforming urban economies.
3. The urgency to decarbonize urban economies is driving the convergence of green and
smart technologies.
4. The demand for smart city systems and solutions is estimated to increase annually by 25
per cent, with an overall market value of approximately US$517 billion.
5. Technological advances risk exacerbating existing, and generating new, socioeconomic

inequalities.
Policy points
1. The deployment of innovation and technology should be tailored to suit the diversity of the
urban context.
2. Cities need to consider the negative environmental externalities when investing in low-
carbon, digital and connected technologies.
3. Urban economies need to be adequately prepared for the effects of advancing automation
and digitalization.
4. To avoid top-down, one-way communication, the deployment of digital tools to address

urban challenges needs to be inclusive, collaborative and empowering.
274
Since the World Cities Report 2020, two major areas of

Cities are not mere bystanders in
sociotechnical development have continued to accelerate
these technological transformations,
and taken an even more prominent stage in planning for
but rather are both the setting for
urban futures. The first area is the growing urgency for
and protagonists in how these
“unprecedented, aggressive decarbonization.”1 One proposed
processes are played out
solution in the fight against global climate change is a series
of green technological innovations that harness renewable
energy sources, reduce energy consumption and protect other Consequently, it also requires careful consideration of local
environmental assets. These innovations are key to creating conditions and contexts, since the impacts of technological
sustainable cities and, as such, will not only significantly innovations will be felt differently across towns and cities.
reshape urban infrastructure—buildings, transport systems, Throughout, the guiding question should be how to achieve
energy grids, etc.—but also exercise significant influence inclusive urban development in the interest of citizens’ well-
on urban daily life. The second technological development being and environmental protection.
relates to unparalleled advancements in the digital world.
Digitalization encompasses various smart technological In exploring the role of cities as places of innovation,
innovations that enable ubiquitous computing, big data Section 2 highlights the necessary interplay between
collection from widespread deployment of sensors and devices, technological, social and organizational innovation, and
large-scale data analytics, machine learning and autonomous sets out four challenges for innovation in the name of the
decision-making. These connected and digital technologies find smart city. Section 3 provides an overview of emergent
expression in the “smart city,” which is now a major paradigm frontier technologies centring upon the convergence of
of urban policy and, increasingly, everyday reality. Each of these green and smart technology, and how these may be variously
technological fields is significant on its own but, crucially, it adapted to local contexts. Section 4 takes a closer look at
is the confluence of the two that at present creates unique how the combined forces of digitalization and automation
technological momentum with fundamental implications for are transforming the world of work and how this will likely
the way in which future cities are governed and planned. affect cities. Section 5 examines how cities can respond
to both the digital divide and environmental divide arising
Cities are not mere bystanders in these technological from technological innovations, which risk creating new, as
transformations, but rather are both the setting for and well as exacerbating existing, urban inequalities. Section
protagonists in how these processes are played out. For one 6 turns to the opportunities of connected and digital
thing, it is predominantly in urban areas that environmental technologies to enhance participatory governance through
and smart technological innovations will be applied, with city more open e-government, civic engagement and community
governments and other urban actors expected to implement technology making. Section 7 draws attention to the
large-scale infrastructure renewals and building retrofit benefits of responsible innovation as a tool for assessing
programmes. For another, the likely disruptive effects of both opportunities and risks of technology. Finally, Section
technological innovation, such as rising precarious work and 8 concludes with seven policy lessons for inclusive socio-
social inequalities, may be particularly pronounced in urban technical innovations for urban futures.
areas and, consequently, require careful assessment and
context-specific intervention. Moreover, cities are not only
implementors of new technology, but also drivers of innovation: 9.1. Future Cities as Places of Innovation
they play an important role in facilitating collaborations among
universities, start-up companies, technology firms, social The role of cities as places of innovation arises from two key urban
enterpriss, and community groups. They even act as innovators characteristics. The first relates to the concentration of people
themselves, for example as commissioners of utility services, and organizations in dense space which creates the conditions
building owners and land developers. for dynamic resource sharing, networking and collaboration.
This agglomeration effect has been shown to be critical for
A key focus of this chapter, therefore, is on the opportunities enabling and driving innovation (Chapter 4).2 Consequently,
and responsibilities that cities have in steering and managing cities play an important role as hosts in providing an enabling
these major socio-technical developments to prepare for urban environment for innovation. The second characteristic relates to
futures. This stewardship requires as much attention to social, cities’ own role as innovators. This is most obvious in relation to
cultural and institutional factors as it does to technology itself. the development and improvement of physical infrastructures,
275
including buildings, energy, transport, water, waste, and green the findings, 60 mayors from the OECD Champion Mayors
and public space. It is also increasingly evident in relation to soft for Inclusive Growth Initiative adopted the Athens Road
infrastructure, where digital technological systems are key to the Map, which aimed to provide guidance on increasing cities’
delivery of various public services. Urban innovation, however, innovation capacity and capabilities and, in turn, fostering
goes beyond the technological, encompassing essential social prosperity and well-being.4 The initiative emphasizes the
and institutional aspects. Furthermore, it requires a context- importance of pursuing innovation not in narrow technological
specific, localized approach. terms, but with close regard to wider socioeconomic and
cultural needs and conditions. As such, it urges cities to invest
9.1.1. Combining three innovation concurrently in three interlinking types of innovation:
perspectives
The thriving cities of the future will likely be ones that Technological and digital innovation that contributes
recognize and harness opportunities to act as platforms to increased well-being in urban areas through smart
for innovation. Consequently, they will facilitate locally transformations of public services, ranging from
grounded innovation ecosystems by supporting the e-government solutions to the use of sensors to address
co-location of research organizations, start-up companies, environmental pollution. Participating cities also commit
investors, industries, and business and social enterprises. to supporting underserved residents with better access
A 2018 survey showed that committed leadership and to digital services.
dedicated staff support are important enabling factors (Figure
9.1). They will use various instruments, including grants, Social innovation to create better social outcomes through
subsidies, competitions and regulations, to incentivize and the provision of community services for disadvantaged
steer innovation towards sustainable urban development communities, the creation of targeted employment and
practices. They may establish innovation districts, living activation programmes, and the encouragement of social
labs or other neighbourhood-scale amenities to provide enterprises and community-building activities.
an enabling environment for creative thinking, design,
development and, ultimately, the applications of solutions Public sector innovation to put the interests of diverse
to societal challenges. Finally, they will tailor innovation to local communities more centre-stage. Recommendations
local conditions taking into account, for example, available include participatory budgeting, public innovation labs, or
resources, capacities, and social and cultural practices. citizen-led monitoring to increase engagement of citizens
in urban decision-making processes. City governments are
In the present day, however, investment in innovation by city equally encouraged to promote public-private partnerships
governments is still a relatively new phenomenon and remains and collaboration between municipalities.
a marginal practice according to a 2019 OECD report.3 Of
the surveyed cities, just over half had stated innovation goals
and fewer than half had adopted innovation strategies. Those The thriving cities of the future will likely be
that did were found to approach innovation more holistically ones that recognize and harness opportunities
and were more open to pursuing change. In response to to act as platforms for innovation
Figure 9.1: Most important practices to support innovation in cities
Leadership commitment from the mayor or prominent city actors 78.7% 16%
A strong team/dedicated staff support 77.5% 15.7%
Strong focus on data and measurement to drive decision making/measure outcomes 60.7% 33.7%
Culture of innovation within the municipal administration 61.8% 29.2%
Dedicated funding/financial support for innovation 57.3% 30.3%
Support from residents,businesses,universities and/or the broader community 50.6% 38.2%
Engagement with partners (advising firms and consultants) 24.7% 49.4%
Human resource involvement,support and training 18.0% 50.6%
Very important important Not important N/A

Source: OECD, 2019.
276
Smart city technologies © Zapp2Photo/Shutterstock
9.1.2. Localized and inclusive innovation A further direction in recent urban innovation policy and
An important recognition in recent research and policy is practice is the strategic alignment of innovation activities
the need for localized and inclusive approaches to fostering with grand societal challenges. This concern recognizes
innovation. This conclusion was reflected in a collection of that innovation can result in destructive creation that leads
discussion papers by UN-Habitat on technological innovation to greater inequalities and environmental degradation.9
for future cities.5 Similarly, a recent report by OECD called for Instead, cities are expected to steer innovation towards the
the broadening of innovation policies for cities and regions.6 sustainability transition and use it to tackle urban challenges,
By broadening, the OECD referred to the need to go beyond such as environmental pollution and rapid urbanization.
a conceptually and spatially narrow approach to innovation
(concentrated around a few clusters of excellence) and In summary, it is possible to define some qualitative
instead support innovation diffusion through the involvement indicators of what kind of innovation policy and practice
of a broader set of urban actors and better use of local assets. can be envisaged for future cities. Accordingly, municipal
This approach recognizes the heterogeneity of innovation governments would strive to:
capacities, with implications for how innovation is orchestrated
nationally and implemented locally. Align innovation policy and practice with grand societal
challenges, including climate change, pollution, poverty,
Such an approach considers different spatial and territorial and inequalities as identified in various chapters of this
dimensions at work.7 On one hand, developing a city-regional Report
approach is considered important if the aim is to broaden the
innovation ecosystem and scale up efficiencies (e.g. shared Support urban agglomeration, and in particular the co-
infrastructures and services). On the other, recent research location of complementary resources and organizations,
has focused on the neighbourhood as a useful unit at which through territorial and socio-economic planning and
to support smaller-scale, adaptive innovation practices with regulation (see Chapter 6)
local expertise. This scale makes particular sense where the
sustainability transition calls for more decentralized approaches. Create a conducive environment for technology and
For example, the Joint Programming Initiative Urban Europe has entrepreneurial start-up companies, especially in the
a programme to plan and deploy 100 positive energy districts green and smart technological sectors
and neighborhoods across 20 European countries by 2025.
These districts and neighbourhoods will produce more energy Facilitate partnerships involving a variety of actors
than they consume, through combing a diverse range of energy (including intermediaries) within and outside the public
sources and energy transfers (Figure 9.2).8 sector
277
Figure 9.2: Diagram showing the flows of energy in a ‘positive energy district’
AMSTERDAM DEMONSTRATOR
DISTRICT BOUNDARY
ATES HEAT
HEAT
SEWAGE
BIOGAS
ELECTRICITY
207 MWh 570 MWh 217 MWh
POPPIES REPUBLICA SCHOONSCHIP
82 MWh 194 MWh 87 MWh

189 MWh
63 MWh
274.5 MWh
23 MWh 17 MWh
LOCAL PV PLANT
112 MWh 75 MWh 40 MWh
GRID
DISTRICT HEAT
ENERGY RECOVERY STATION
Source: Urban Europe, 2020.
Support urban experimentation (pilots, incubators, living

labs) aimed at addressing societal problems Cities are expected to steer
innovation towards the
Support training and skills development, including sustainability transition and use
upskilling to green jobs and digitalization it to tackle urban challenges
Host or support “future labs” that engage stakeholders

and communities in vision-making and scenario-building 2019), the scientific output on smart cities rose tenfold.
This picture of rapid growth is mirrored in the global market,
Conduct evaluations of innovation programmes to where the demand for smart city systems and solutions
assess impact and ensure feedback for continuous is estimated to increase annually by 25 per cent, with an
improvement, learning and capacity building overall market value of approximately US$517 billion.11 It
is further reflected in the popularity of diverse smart city
9.1.3. Four challenges for smart city innovation initiatives around the world. According to a recent global
The “smart city” has become a globally popular catchphrase survey, 27 cities currently lead the field as smart city
and major policy paradigm for technology-driven urban champions, followed by numerous others that have launched
innovation and development. It emerged rapidly from the initiatives under the smart city banner.12 Of course, having
late 2000s onwards to jockey for local authorities’ attention an explicit smart city agenda is not a precondition for cities
alongside other key urban conceptual paradigms, such as adopting connected and digital technologies: indeed, some
the “compact city,” “resilient city” or even the longtime local governments have implemented artificial intelligence
dominant “sustainable city.”10 Within just five years (2015– (AI) technology without specific reference to smart city.13
278
Nevertheless, smart city initiatives have faced significant

The “smart city” has become a criticism, highlighting the risk of an overly technological
globally popular catchphrase approach to innovation without due regard to diverse urban and
and major policy paradigm for social contexts. Therefore, cities wishing to implement smart
technology-driven urban innovation city strategies need to contend with four main challenges.
and development
Respect city-specific contexts, otherwise smart city
Nevertheless, many municipal administrations choose to adopt projects risk being divorced from the reality of ordinary
a smart city agenda, to provide strategic and programmatic cities if they subscribe to a form of smart urbanism
direction for urban development. They are often encouraged that espouses a clean slate view of a city run on hyper-
by national governments that use competitions to entice efficient urban technology.18 In response, researchers
cities to invest in smart city programmes, as illustrated by and practitioners have urged a more grounded approach,
India’s 100 Smart Cities Mission and the Republic of Korea’s which situates the smart city within specific locales and
Smart Challenge. National and international standards socio-political contexts, thereby relating it to the messy
organizations have joined in by issuing indicators and reality of urban policy and practice.19
frameworks aimed at guiding cities’ work on the ground.14
Adopt a people-centred perspective to avoid the risk
What transpires from many of the recent smart city initiatives of an overly technocratic approach to how smart city
is that they place great importance on promoting governance initiatives are conceived and implemented.20 There is
innovation, alongside the more technical rollout of digital broad acknowledgement that, initially at least, smart city
technologies such as public Wi-Fi, smart street furniture and initiatives too often acted in the service of technology
open data portals. For example, Amsterdam Smart City styles and corporate interests aimed at expanding new urban
itself as an “open innovation platform” aimed at connecting markets for digital technologies. Consequently, a more
people and supporting collaborative approaches to find people-centred approach has been recommended, which
solutions to urban challenges.15 Similarly, Melbourne’s emphasizes that smart cities should more explicitly serve
smart city programme comprises a CityLab, described as a the interests of citizens and give them an active role in
space to prototype new city services with the community, how these technologies are planned and implemented.21
and an annual Open Innovation Competition, which seeks However, if such a commitment is to be more than
to tap into the creativity and expertise of the community to cursory and paternalistic, it requires serious engagement
solve a given city issue (e.g. waste and the circular economy with questions of social justice, the social good and
in 2020).16 In the case of Santiago de Chile’s Shared Street political participation, for example by operating under
for Low-Carbon District initiative, which was spearheaded by the right to the city framework.22
an NGO in collaboration with the municipality and the smart
cities unit of the Ministry of Transportation, the aim was to Provincialize smart cities in order to view the smart
combine citizen participation and experimentation to support city from a different perspective than that of the
tactical interventions for more inclusive and sustainable road Global North. The predominant view is problematic
use.17 Altogether, rather than starting from a fixed model when smart city practices developed in Western cities
of the smart city, many recent initiatives emphasize an with knowledge-based economies and concentrations
experimental, open-ended approach to developing solutions of global capital are uncritically assumed to be
to localized urban issues with the involvement of multiple suitable for, and therefore superimposed on, cities in
stakeholders. developing countries. In response, critical scholarship
has highlighted the need to provincialize smart cities;
that is, to develop more grounded approaches to how
smart city discourses and practices can emerge from
Many municipal global peripheries, often in the form of small projects
administrations choose to (in contrast to typically large-scale, capital-intensive
adopt a smart city agenda, interventions in the Global North).23
to provide strategic and
programmatic direction for Ensure environmental sustainability as there is a major
urban development concern that current smart city discourse insufficiently
279
improving sanitation. These insights are increasingly

Smart city initiatives have faced recognized in the development and application of emergent
significant criticism, highlighting urban technologies, as the following section outlines.
the risk of an overly technological
approach to innovation without
due regard to diverse urban and 9.2. Frontier Technologies for Variegated
social contexts Urban Futures
engages with environmental sustainability issues. On Urban futures will be defined to a significant extent by a
one hand, smart city initiatives can be criticized for often series of frontier technologies, particularly relating to the
prioritizing economic goals—expressed, for example, in green and smart technology sectors. Frontier technologies
terms of seizing global marketshare—and, consequently, are innovations in science, technology, engineering and
marginalizing environmental goals.24 On the other mathematics which are no longer in the research and
hand, the environmental costs of smart city projects are development phrase but have yet to see mainstream market
frequently overlooked, when there is growing evidence penetration and public adoption (Box 9.1). Their application
that technological innovations may be carbon intensive in the urban realm has the potential to reconfigure urban
and environmentally damaging.25 Recent years have, development in radical and disruptive ways. The adoption
therefore, seen a shift towards more explicitly aligning the of frontier technologies is not limited to large, global cities,
smart city with the goals of the sustainable city.26 but is increasingly relevant in lower-tiered cities and even
informal settlements. This is because frontier technologies
Overall, the discussion of what innovation policy cities should can be designed to be relatively low-cost and suitable for
pursue highlights the importance of a concerted approach local adaptation. Still, a significant problem remains that
that interrelates technological, social and public sector some technological innovations, driven by global corporate
innovation. It further highlights the need for a variegated interests, are either unattainable in resource-poor contexts
approach that pays attention to different types of cities and or in their application exacerbate social inequalities, thus
urban contexts, in order to achieve thriving, locally grounded leaving some cities behind. Consequently, urban institutions
innovation practices. It also underscores the importance of and stakeholders should be actively involved in deciding
aligning innovation policy with major social policy goals, how urban technologies are designed and adapted locally in
such as ensuring adequate housing, tackling poverty and pursuit of sustainable urban development.
Co-workers at the iHub, a working space for technology entrepreneurs, Nairobi, Kenya. © rvdw images/Shutterstock
280
Box 9.1: Examples of frontier technologies in urban contexts
• Artificial intelligence, or machine learning: Increasingly deployed by municipal governments in the form of virtual agents like
chatbots for issuing parking permits and in road traffic management.27
• Blockchain, or distributed ledger technology: For secure, decentralized exchange of data among network partners. Used by
transport operators to deliver shared mobility services, or by city governments to issue residents with digital identifiers for
accessing local services.28
• Digital twins: Virtual representations of urban objects at various scales (building, neighborhood, district, etc.) used as
planning tools. Supports diagnostic and prognostic analysis and model-making. Dependent on completeness and accuracy of
underlying data known as “digital thread.” 29
• 3D printing, or additive manufacturing: Allows for offsite fabrication of building components, thus potentially lowering
construction costs of new buildings.30
• Electric vehicle (EV) technology: With a global target of 60 per cent EV cars by 2030, a rapid uptake is required given the
current share of just 4 per cent. (In comparison, EVs already make up 39 per cent of buses.) A key technological challenge
is the roll-out of electric charging networks. To date, 15 countries and 31 cities are committed to phasing out the sale of
combustion-engine vehicles.31
• Internet of Things (IoT): Broad range of applications by embedding a multitude of sensors, smart meters and computer
processors in urban infrastructure and objects (buildings, electricity grids, street furniture, water grids, etc.) and connecting
these to digital management systems via cloud computing (remote storage and analysis system over the internet)32.
• Renewable energy technologies: Deployed for clean energy production, using various renewable energy sources (solar,
wind, hydro, biomass, geothermal). Potential to be applied in tandem, e.g. large bioenergy and waste-to-energy plants with
distributed networks of solar panels.33
• Robotics: Multiple urban applications, including drones for last-mile delivery and connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs).
Dependent on 5G/6G technology to deliver high-speed broadband, ultra-reliable connectivity (for low latency) and ability to
connect to a multitude of devices simultaneously.34
Zero-emission vehicle fleet share outlooks-Economic Transition Scenario

(ETS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
Two/three wheelers Buses

100% 100%
80% 80%
60% 60%
40% 40%
20% 20%
0%
0%
20 30 40 50
20 30 40 50
281
Cars and LCVs MCVs and HCVs

100% 100%
LCVs
80% 80%
60% 60%
40% 40%
Cars
20% 20%
0% 0%
20 30 40 50 20 30 40 50
ETS NZS
Source: BNEF. Note: ‘ETS’ is Economic Transition Scenario and ‘NZS is Net-Zero Scenarion’. ‘LCVs, MCVs and HCVs‘ are light-, medium- and
heavy-duty commercial vehicles. ‘Zero-emission’ includes battery-electric and fuel cell vehicles. All values globals. Some values rounded.
Source: BloombergNEF, 2021.
9.2.1. Converging smart and green technologies in combination with renewable energy technologies makes it
The rise of various green technologies corresponds with the increasingly technically feasible and financially affordable to set
scale and urgency of environmental challenges (Chapter 5). up virtual power plants. These are decentralized, local energy
According to the World Energy Outlook only 40 per cent of the grids that can utilize multiple renewable energy sources and,
CO2 emission cuts required to reach the 2050 net zero target will thus, reduce CO2 emissions and increase energy resilience.
be achieved with current measures.35 Therefore, the uptake of Likewise, modern district heating systems combine renewable
environmental technologies (currently increasing by over 8 per technologies (waste heat, heat pumps, thermal storage, etc.) with
cent annually, as measured by investment) will need to accelerate digital and connected technologies to achieve increased energy
significantly in the coming years.36 The decarbonization of efficiency. According to the United Nations Environmental
energy grids, the electrification of transportation and the Programme, they are “a secret weapon for climate action
application of renewable energy technologies to commercial and human health,” with potential to reduce primary energy
and domestic buildings are among the most important areas consumption by up to 50 per cent compared with conventional
that require innovation and implementation. systems.41 Both examples point to the opportunity for small-
scale, localized approaches (also known as “off-grid” energy),
For its part, the smart technology sector has grown with technology configured to suit specific local conditions.
exponentially based on rapid advancements in digital and
connected technologies and their ubiquity in everyday life. A similar technological interplay is required to realize the
The speed with which cities are adopting smart technology goals of the circular economy, which seeks to change the
is illustrated by strong demand for Internet of Things (IoT) prevailing linear production mode (so-called “take-make-
technology, with over 20 per cent annual growth forecast dispose”) to a closed production cycle where product owners
for the coming years.37 Similarly, blockchain technology is repair, recover, reuse and recycle their goods.42 Cloud
predicted to grow by over 30 per cent in the next few years.38 computing and business-to-business matching platforms
AI technologies are increasingly deployed by municipal are enabling technologies to connect waste producers with
governments in the form of virtual agents like chatbots.39 waste recycling and remanufacturing industries. Blockchain
Overall, the market for smart city systems and solutions is technology can improve the traceability and transparency of
estimated to be US$517 billion.40
More than their individual contributions, however, it is the The smart technology sector has grown
convergence of green and smart technologies that creates the exponentially based on rapid advancements in
basis for major, and potentially disruptive, urban change. For digital and connected technologies and their
example, the application of IoT and blockchain technologies ubiquity in everyday life
282
Home electricity scheme with battery energy storage system on modern house photovoltaic solar panels and rechargeable li-ion backup. © Upetovarga/Shutterstock
products by verifying the origins of products and assuring recognition for pneumatic sorting; (b) AI and machine learning
related sustainability claims. for waste classification, such as CAV refuse trucks; (c) IoT for
sensor-supported waste containers (e.g. smart bins); (d) cloud
9.2.2. Low-cost applications computing for storing and processing sensor data as well as
The example of virtual power plants demonstrates that workflow management; and (e) data analytics to evaluate
frontier technology need not necessarily be unaffordable. performance and model alternative options (figure 9.3).44
Such plants can be designed to allow individual households,
groups of residents or neighborhoods to sell surplus The report, however, acknowledges several potential
electricity to the wider electricity grid, thus generating deterrents: high investment costs, the requirement for
local income for residents alongside their contribution to advanced digital skills, the prospect of generating additional
decarbonizing the energy system. electronic waste and increasing energy consumption.
Echoing this concern, a World Bank report emphasized that
While the costs of new infrastructure development are appropriate technological solutions to tackling waste may not
typically high—and as such may be out of reach for less be the newest or most advanced, depending on context.45
well-resourced cities—a focus on improving existing This is important given that 90 per cent of solid waste is
infrastructure is often more appropriate and less costly. openly dumped or burned in low-income countries, and
According to a report by McKinsey on infrastructure options worldwide 33 per cent of municipal waste is not managed in
for future cities, even relatively simple and inexpensive an environmentally safe way, partly due to the high cost of
digital overlays—such as low-cost automated utility meters waste management.46
and air quality monitors, low-power Wi-Fi communication
for intermitted data-streaming, and advancements in Similarly, the availability of affordable technological solutions
solar panel battery technology delivering more power at to tackle the growing problem of water scarcity and sanitation
lower cost—can render existing infrastructure “smart” at is a recognized challenge. There are some noteworthy case
affordable prices.43 studies that demonstrate how technology can be applied in
resource-poor settings, thus providing clean and affordable
The question of high-versus-low costs also applies to waste water to local communities.47 Here again, increasingly
management. At the high end, a study by the European several technologies interact, with digital overlays adding
Environment Agency argues that the future of waste remote sensing and smart metering capabilities. The trend is
management will be characterized by the convergence of five towards more small-grid and hybrid-grid water management
technological innovations, namely: (a) robotics that use image systems aimed at increasing efficiency and resilience.48
283
Figure 9.3: Five technological innovations that will shape the future of waste management
ROBOTICS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE INTERNET OF THINGS CLOUD COMPUTING DATA ANALYTICS

AND NEURAL NETWORKS
Advancements in the Machine learning-using As more and more Storing and processing of Storing and processing of sensor
pneumatic sorting neural networks based on devices are connected sensor data and cloud based data and cloud based software
process as a result of the use of data or examples to the internet or software solutions make it solutions make it easy to optimize
autimation technology to solve problems without other networks,sensor easy to optimize workflowsw workflowsw and document failure
PROCESS
allow producing explicit programming-is supported containers and document failure to to collect,failure in sorting or
defined waste streams used for classification can collect data and collect,failure in sorting or detect waste bins that are not
of high purity (over and pattern recognition in transfer it to central detect waste bins that are not paid for.
90%) the waste management units. paid for.
context, improving the
efficiency of sorting.
Robots that are able Autonomous,self-driving Smart waste bins Cloud based software for: - Electronically supported
to identify and sort street sweepers,refuse with identification disposition of waste collection
recyclables and trucks systems,weighing - Connection,standardizing vehicles.
critical materials systems,level and optimizing internal
through image sensors,software for procedures. - Evaluation of sensor data for
recognition/IR optimizing logistics automated sorting plans.
EXAMPLES
scanning/AI vision - Real-time order management

route planning and - Control of waste incineration
systems when plants
dismantling used optimization,customer self-
phones/electronics. service,order tracking and - Drone based data collection on
evaluation. landfills.
Source: EEA, 2021b.
9.2.3. Flexible and modular designs hotspots, and measuring the impacts of intervention. The
Concomitant with a focus on small-scale, localized underlying technological approach has been made available
approaches, technological innovations are increasingly as a blueprint for use in other cities.51
characterized by flexible and modular designs. A case in
point is mobile air quality monitoring, in response to the Modularity and flexibility are also characteristic of
worldwide problem of urban air pollution which afflicts new approaches to urban transportation. Enabled by
9 out of 10 people on a daily basis.49 The example of technological innovations, including electric and connected
Breathe London, a recent pilot study undertaken by the autonomous vehicles, the future of urban transport will
Environmental Defense Fund, demonstrates the feasibility be more multimodal with emphasis on mobility-as-a-
and flexibility of lower-cost and more portable monitoring service (on-demand ridehailing and car-sharing), micro-
using sensor pods, as alternative to more costly traditional mobility (e-scooters, e-bikes and e-light freight vehicles),
environmental monitoring technology.50 The approach is last-mile and last-minute delivery (drones and robots),
particularly suitable for generating high granularity of data for and active travel (walking and cycling). This will require
targeted, hyper-local action, such as dealing with pollution both integrated physical infrastructure and interconnected
284
transport management systems. It will also require attention the focus should be on supporting technological development
to multiple aims, including reducing air/noise pollution, and finding technological solutions that are attuned to local
increasing safety and improving congestion.52 conditions, tackle pressing urban challenges, and are socio-
economically and culturally inclusive. Cities need to be
9.2.4. On-the-ground partnerships prepared for, and actively address, technological advances and
If a key feature of future urban technologies is small-scale their likely impacts, such as those arising from automation and
designs and local adaptability, then the need for on-the-ground digitalization, as the following sections sets out.
partnerships becomes apparent. One such example comes from
Norway, where 11 towns making up the Rogland region teamed
up to upgrade street and park lighting using LED technology.53 9.3. Automation, Digitalization and the
Rather than opting for outsourcing, the project was developed Future of Work
by an industrial company owned by the municipalities, and
it is based on an open system design to allow for future IoT According to the World Economic Forum (WEF), by the year
functionalities to be added. It resulted in the installation of 2025, machines will equal humans in terms of time spent on
18,000 LED lighting poles that are interlinked via a central tasks at work.55 Automation, alongside digitalization and new
management system. Elsewhere, the need for cooperation is hybrid forms of work, are expected to transform established
also critical to achieving more sustainable building design and modes of labour and employment and, consequently, change
operations. Buildings contribute an estimated 37 per cent of urban economies. Digital platforms, for example, create new
global CO2 emissions and account for 36 per cent of global digital-urban connections with visible impacts on streetscapes
energy consumption.54 Approximately one-third of emissions and urban trade and services. The COVID-19 pandemic has
stems from construction activities and two-thirds relate to accelerated these emergent transformations. The WEF report
building operations. These sources highlight the importance of aptly speaks of a “double disruption” confronting the world
applying life-cycle assessment to the building sector: design, of work: one caused by connected and digital technologies;
planning, construction, operation, renovation and demolition. the other by the pandemic rupture. City governments, as
Apart from environmental technologies (e.g. active and passive policymakers, regulators and employers, have a stake in the
solar power; recycled materials for insulation; green roofs), discussion about how technological innovation should shape
smart technologies are used for building operation as well as the future of work and knowledge-based urban development.
to optimize energy efficiency and monitor performance. This
essentially requires the active involvement of, and cooperation
City governments, as policymakers, regulators
from, building operations managers and users, whether
and employers, have a stake in the discussion
residents or commercial tenants.
about how technological innovation should
shape the future of work
Digital technologies can be used to enhance collaborative
planning and decision-making (Chapter 6). Municipal
governments and other urban actors have access to growing 9.3.1. Transformations across formal and informal
amounts of large-scale and high-resolution data harvested economies
from diverse sources, including from distributed sensors, The future of work, in the form of the ubiquitous use of
closed-circuit television cameras and social media. Digital connected and digital technologies, has already arrived for
twin technology is increasingly used in urban design and a large proportion of the white-collar workforce.56 Many
planning. Geographic digital twins are virtual representations public and private sector organizations routinely use cloud
of urban objects at various scales. As digital counterparts computing and big data analytics while consumer-oriented
of the urban fabric, they can be used as planning tools, by businesses have increasingly embraced e-commerce.
providing diagnostic and prognostic analysis and enabling Algorithmic management, which relies on data collection
model-making. The technology, however, is dependent on and surveillance technology to remotely track and manage
the completeness and accuracy of the digital thread, the workforces, is becoming more commonplace, especially in
underlying data-driven architecture. developed countries.57
While recognizing the limits of technological sovereignty, city In emerging and developing countries, the evidence of the
governments have an opportunity to pursue an active role in impact of digitalization is not yet conclusive, according to
setting the technological agenda for urban futures. In doing so, the German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ).58
285
Box 9.2: Digital microwork in an informal settlement in Windhoek
Microwork platforms have attracted growing interest as a promising tool to support work in the informal economy and in areas of high
unemployment. They give users access to various short-term Internet-based microtasks, such as transcribing short texts, moderating
content and tagging images. Work can be carried out one task at a time from home, thus offering flexibility and remote access. In an
experiment on the outskirts of Windhoek, researchers designed a simulation of a range of microtasks for which payment was made.
The aim was to find out what livelihood assets are needed to allow people to pursue microwork, and whether doing so results in
improved livelihood outcomes. Volunteers were given training to act as technology mediators so that they themselves could train and
support their community. The project concluded that several conditions had to be met for microwork to be a viable option, including:
English language skills and digital literacy; physical access to electricity and the Internet; email and bank account ownership; and
financial means to pay platform membership fees.
Source: Keskinen et al, 2021.
It cites evidence from five Association of Southeast Asian Digital labour platforms epitomize the advancing digitalization
Nations (ASEAN) countries showing that, in the formal across formal and informal economies. They exhibit a strong
economy, up to 56 per cent of jobs are threatened by urban dimension: platforms benefit from high population
digitalization and automation. Corresponding data on the density and spatial proximity between platform users and
informal economy are more difficult to come by because workers.64 This dynamic is so significant that captured by the
it is expansive and diversified, encompassing an estimated term platform urbanism’.65 City governments themselves often
2 billion workers across the Global South.59 Nevertheless, become involved, for example in an oversight and regulatory
GIZ highlights employment opportunities in the platform capacity to provide licenses to drivers and food safety
economy,60 and improvements in productivity flowing from certificates to restaurants. Indeed, some city governments
technological innovation. have participated in legal challenges, for example to force ride-
hailing platforms to be treated as transportation companies
For the G20 intergovernmental forum, digitalization offers rather than merely as technology enterprises.66
an unprecedented opportunity for self-employed individuals
as well as small and medium enterprises.61 Connected and Yet, there are growing concerns that digital labour platforms
digital technologies can facilitate access to financial services, create a precarious class of underpaid urban workers with
seen as critical for supporting inclusive and sustainable little social protection.67 Research in South-Eastern Asia and
development. The G20 policy guide highlights the scale of Sub-Saharan Africa has shown that platform work can result
the task, since 1.7 billion adults worldwide lack access to in irregular worktime, overwork, sleep deprivation, and
a basic bank or mobile money account. Particularly, women social isolation, apart from generating low pay.68 Of particular
should benefit from digital connectivity, since they make up worry for cities must be the prospect of increased inequality
the largest group across different sectors within the informal between a growing group of precarious platform workers
economy. and a high-income class of residents.69 These concerns,
however, have to be set against the attractiveness—typically
An example of the importance of digital tools for female emphasized by platform workers themselves—of flexibility,
entrepreneurship is reported in a case study of informal autonomy, additional income and low-entry barriers to urban
markets in Ghana.62 There, ICTs, and in particular mobile labour markets.70
phones, form an essential part of women’s trading practices,
providing access to banking services and information on farm
pricing, as well as supporting multiple social networks which
are central to managing their micro-enterprises. In Namibia, There are growing concerns that digital
where well over 50 per cent of the work takes place in the labour platforms create a precarious class
informal economy, the benefits of microwork were explored of underpaid urban workers with little social
in a community-based experiment in Windhoek (Box 9.2).63 protection
286
9.3.2. Advancing automation in cities The double disruption, as described by the World Economic
Alongside digital transformations, the substitution of Forum, is likely to continue to reshape the labour market.
human workers with technology is advancing rapidly. In The International Labour Organization emphasized the likely
developing countries, two-thirds of jobs could be automated, further increase in inequalities between low- and high-paid
particularly in formal economies where wages and rates of workers arising from the type of job losses generated by
technological adaptation are high.71 Similar trends can be the pandemic.79 This will necessarily lead to changes in the
observed in developed countries. In the US, up to 47 per mix of occupations and, therefore, require retraining and
cent of employment is estimated to be at risk of automation, upskilling.80 Changes in the retail sector may be particularly
particularly affecting jobs in the services and administrative pronounced. The high street “retail apocalypse,”81 already
sectors.72 In the UK, following the example of multinational underway before the pandemic, is likely going to make more
technology company Amazon, two major national jobs in large service sectors obsolete. The increase in online
supermarket chains began trialing automation technology in retail from 16 per cent of total sales pre-pandemic to 19 per
2021, including camera surveillance and automated billing, cent globally is likely to accelerate further.82 The McKinsey
that would dispense with retail staff. In municipal service Global Institute highlights the need for preparedness for
provision, automation plays a growing role. For example, changes in the mix of occupations: it estimates that 25
chatbots or virtual agents increasingly replace municipal per cent of workers will need to switch occupations, with
staff, such as in Helsinki, Finland, where chatbots help jobs in warehousing and transportation increasing, while
process residents’ parking permit applications.73 Another those in customer-facing sales falling. On their part, digital
area of application is waste collection based on automated air platforms can be expected to grow and diversify which,
suction systems and underground pipes.74 The city of Yavne, while providing work opportunities across developing and
Israel, boasts one of the world’s most advanced automated developed economies, may add to the precarity of workers.
waste collection systems, covering homes, schools and public
bins.75 In urban public transport, driverless buses are rapidly
becoming common features, such as in Malaga, Spain, and The COVID-19 pandemic will likely have
Wuxi, China.76 a lasting effect on the world of work by
accelerating automation and digitalization
9.3.4. Beyond the pandemic: scenarios for the
future of urban work The enforced lockdowns and subsequent sudden shift
The COVID-19 pandemic will likely have a lasting effect on the to remote working resulted in an abrupt decrease in
world of work by accelerating automation and digitalization. transportation, coupled with a reduction in air pollution and
The need for social distancing hastened the introduction of greenhouse gas emissions (Chapter 6).83 This led some to
self-service customer kiosks and the use of service robots predict that new modes of hybrid working will have positive
in customer interaction areas.77 Additionally, the pandemic environmental externalities.84 However, recent evidence
also changed the spatiality of work from the predominant points to a rebound effect, as more people switched from
physical mode of work fixed in one place to flexible, hybrid public transport to private car use since social distancing is
work practices. Despite the difficulty of predicting the easier to maintain.85 In addition, growing demand for online
winners and losers among cities of the pandemic’s long-term shopping and last-mile delivery have led to an increase in
effects,78 it is possible to consider at several scenarios for the road traffic.86 City administrations, thus, need to analyze
future of work and urban development. how these trends may require investment in sustainable
micro-mobility solutions.
As remote and hybrid working practices allow people to

live and work at greater distance from urban centers where
offices and headquarters are concentrated, smaller cities and
In developing countries, two- suburban areas may benefit relative to larger ones.87 However,
thirds of jobs could be automated, this depends on the availability of suitable infrastructure
particularly in formal economies such as broadband coverage and co-working spaces. Indeed,
where wages and rates of smaller cities and suburban areas may use the opportunity of
technological adaptation are high the pandemic to invest in urban improvements to increase
their attractiveness to footloose remote workers.
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Yet, according to a US study, smaller cities may also be economic and social effects of digitalization and automation
expected to experience negative long-term consequences, and to support their citizens’ participation in the knowledge-
as they are home to a larger proportion of jobs that can be based economy.
automated, thus leading to job losses.88 By the same analysis,
large cities may be less affected, given the concentration
of highly skilled technical and managerial professions that 9.4. Cities’ Responses to Digital and
are less prone to automation. Other research on European Environmental Divides
and Northern American urban economies predicts a more
polarized scenario among large cities, depending on the The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the opportunities
economic specialization and skillsets of local workforces: afforded by digital technologies which allowed society to
cities with higher shares of jobs considered low-skilled (such adapt quickly to remote online working, education, health
as in certain service sectors) or high-skilled (for example in care, retail and entertainment. At the same time, the
biosciences and engineering) may enjoy greater resilience, pandemic revealed that a lack of access to smart technology
while those with large medium-skilled workforces (such could exacerbate existing socio-economic inequalities. For
as in manufacturing or administration) could face high instance, in New York access to technology emerged as a
unemployment.89 The various options for city governments fundamental determinant of access to health and social
to enhance the attractiveness of locations for businesses care.96 Residents on lower incomes, from ethnic minorities,
and workers include tax incentives and making targeted the elderly and immigrants, had significantly lower access
infrastructure investments.90 to broadband and the Internet than the average population,
coupled with lower digital literacy.
9.3.5. City-level initiatives to prepare for the future
of work This is an example of the digital divide, which not only
While the implications of the pandemic’s double disruption highlights the challenge that some may benefit more from
for urban development are yet to crystallize fully, cities technological innovations than others but, worse, that the
would be well advised to prepare urban workers for introduction of new technology can further entrench existing
potential negative impacts. For example, Calgary promotes socio-economic and cultural disparities, as UN-Habitat has
the reskilling of residents through a dedicated technological repeatedly highlighted.97 If, therefore, the aim of urban
skills development programme, in response to the decline development as stated in the New Urban Agenda98 is to
of its traditional fossil fuel industries.91 The government promote inclusivity and ensure that all inhabitants have
of Singapore offers SkillsFuture, a retraining programme access to various urban services, then active steps need to
that consists of short modular courses in emerging areas, be taken to avoid technological innovations having adverse
such as advanced manufacturing, data analytics and urban effects. This similarly applies to environmental technologies,
solutions.92 Citizens each receive an allowance of SG$500 where the risk of “eco-gentrification” and the emergence of
to sign up for a SkillsFuture course, with more than 431,000 a “climate precariat” are well recognized.99
Singaporeans benefitting to date.93
Technological divides are not a problem exclusively for cities
Basic income trials are another possible policy intervention, in the developing world. Cities in the developed world are
by providing an unconditional monthly income to alleviate also confronted with the challenge of addressing digital and
the need to engage in precarious and short-term work. environmental divides among their populations. This section
For instance, the city of Stockton in the US undertook a seeks to highlight how various cities (and countries) have
two-year trial by offering a selected group of low-income responded to the challenge with initiatives aimed at making
residents a monthly basic income of US$500, which resulted the applications of technological innovations more inclusive.
in lower unemployment and improved well-being (Chapter
1).94 In Madrid, workers have set up platform cooperatives 9.4.1. Approaches to digital inclusion
in response to the rise of corporately-owned digital labour The digital divide is more than physical access to digital
platforms. Owned and run by workers, the cooperatives aim infrastructure, including broadband and the Internet.100 It
to offer better working conditions than established platforms encompasses the affordability of smart technology, the skills
by providing regular pay and paid leave.95 Despite the required for digital literacy, and whether digital engagement
uncertainties surrounding the pandemic’s long-term effects, translates into new opportunities, such as employment,
cities have several tools at their disposal to manage the education, and social and cultural engagement:
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Access consists of two aspects: the availability of digital is reversed. In least-developed countries the uptake
infrastructures and digital tools and the affordability of of digital technologies for production, rather than
using digital services. The former highlights that digital mere consumption, still lags significantly behind more
infrastructure may be unevenly distributed across urban developed countries.107
space, with gaps in broadband coverage which, therefore,
puts underserved communities at a disadvantage. The Examples of the digital divide from across the world, as
latter highlights that, even where physical access is well as initiatives that seek to enahnce digital inclusion
available, there may still be a barrier to accessing digital are presented in Table 9.1. Concerning the former, not
services on cost grounds. Figure 9.4 shows how even in a only is there compelling evidence of the urban poor being
city like New York, many households are without internet. disproportionally affected, as exemplified by the case of
Expanding the spatial reach of digital infrastructure is Magelang, but there is also a strong gender factor at play:
seen as the most fundamental requirement to counteract across low- and middle-income countries, women are 20 per
the digital divide.101 Improving physical access to digital cent less likely than men to use mobile Internet, according to
infrastructure alone will not suffice; questions related to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
affordability, skills development and the productive use of (UNCTAD).108 Research on Indian urban slums revealed in
digital tools for economic activity need to be addressed. more detail that women in poor settings are disproportionally
Still, physical access remains important: in developing affected by a lack of Internet access, not owning an access
countries, in 2018, about 40–42 per cent of people had device (mobile phones, computer), and not knowing how to
access to the Internet compared to 70–98 per cent in send text messages.109
developed countries.102
Another study from India highlighted the digital
Skills: Even if everyone had physical access to digital marginalization of elderly people, who experience multiple
tools, inequalities would remain if potential users barriers to using digital services, including difficulty in
lacked digital literacy to use digital services and create understanding technical instructions, concerns over cyber
their own content. This is one of the main challenges security, and a lack of supportive learning environment.110
identified in the UN-Habitat playbook People-Centered A case study of Dar es Salaam found that a change in mobile
Smart City.103 This framework points to the importance phone regulations (mandatory registration of SIM cards)
of skills training. Evidence shows significant inequalities disproportionally affected those living in informal settlements
concerning digital literacy and skills afflicting particular by disrupting users’ informal financial transaction methods,
social groups. For example, research shows that with detrimental effects on their livelihoods.111 Elsewhere,
age, income and level of education were important research on Internet exclusion in Santiago and Medellín
determinants of people’s ability to access and use ICTs in revealed that households who could afford Internet access
Barcelona.104 In Magelang, Indonesia, the gulf between and had the necessary user skills nevertheless experienced
digital haves and digital have-nots has widened with over exclusion for want of sufficient digital infrastructure.112 This
one-third of the city’s poor having no access to mobile study points to network disadvantage that is institutionally
phones. Additionally, they did not have the skills for generated. Altogether, these studies highlight the complexity
advanced use, such as logging on, conducting online of digital exclusion, requiring urban actors to consider
searches and retrieving information.105 multiple levels of intervention to provide redress.
More recent research has focused on the outcomes

of computer and Internet use in terms of who is
benefitting, and in what way.106 This research shows
that those on the right side of the digital divide (young,
male, well-educated, employed) generally report more
positive outcomes economically, socially, politically
and culturally, and are better at coping with the
negative aspects of Internet use, such as cybercrime,
disinformation, and online addiction. For those on the
wrong side of the divide (older persons, female, those
with low-level education and occupation), the situation
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Figure 9.4: Map of New York showing households without internet access: with concentration in the less affluent parts of
the Bronx, Queens and Brooklyn
Source: Citizens’Committee for Children of New York, 2019.
Table 9.1: Examples of the digital divide and approaches to digital inclusion
Examples of digital divide Examples of digital inclusion
Still growing gap between developed and developing countries concerning Nigeria/Senegal/Tanzania: access to, and use of, digital technology to improve
physical access to the Internet113 labour force participation, thus reducing poverty114
Magelang: large proportion of urban poor unable to execute basic tasks on Johannesburg: short training sessions close to public Wi-Fi points116
their phones115
Indian informal settlements: women less likely to own mobile phones, have Cities Coalition for Digital Rights: a coalition of 45 cities around the world
Internet access and digital skills than men117 committing to the provision of affordable Internet and improvement of digital
literacy of urban dwellers118
Santiago and Medellín: sparse Internet access even if households could afford it119 Chattanooga, US: citywide Internet coverage provided by the municipality120
In terms of the measures to improve digital inclusion, a introduced. The importance of skills training was recognized
World Bank study covering Nigeria, Senegal and Tanzania in a smart city project in Johannesburg: in addition to rolling
showed that both Internet availability and the use of more out free Wi-Fi access points near public hospitals, libraries
sophisticated digital technologies led to more and better and along public transport routes across the city, 85 trained
jobs for lower-income, lower-skilled people.121 Labour force Jozi Digital Ambassadors were deployed over a three-month
participation and wage employment increased significantly period to train and enroll residents in Internet use.
after three years in areas where Internet access had been
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In North America, several cities have sought to overcome the many tech companies choosing to locate there. Box 9.3 shows
digital divide.122 For instance, in Chattanooga, US, the city took how the Toronto is bridging the digital divide, which creates
the lead in installing a citywide fiber network through its own significant barriers for the most vulnerable and marginalized
municipal electricity utility company, thus providing affordable residents in accessing vital services and supports.123 Apart from
gigabit speed to previously underserved communities. During these examples, urban actors seeking to access knowledge and
COVID-19, low-income students were granted free Internet guidance on how to facilitate digital inclusion may find the
access to enable them to participate in online learning. The declaration of the Cities Coalition for Digital Rights, agreed
initiative also helped the city attract new investment, with between 45 cities, a useful resource.124
Box 9.3: Bridging the digital divide in Toronto
All of Toronto has access to some form of Internet coverage, yet not everyone is able to afford quality access due to high prices. As
of 2020, 39 per cent of the city’s residents did not have Internet speeds that met the standards of the Canadian Radio-television and
Telecommunications Commission. This was due to either poor infrastructure or inability to afford quality service. Over one-third of
Toronto households indicated that they were able to afford high-quality Internet only at the expense of other purchases like food
or clothing. Canada has among the most expensive Internet costs globally; even high-income households tend to spend at least 9
per cent of their income on expenses related to Internet connectivity. Over half of the people surveyed by the Toronto Public Library
indicated that the public library was the only source of Internet access.
This digital divide creates significant barriers for Toronto’s most vulnerable and marginalized residents in accessing vital services
and supports. Residents without consistent internet access cannot access information, resources, supports, educational tools and
social platforms to stay connected. Businesses trying to compete in a digital-first world are set back by insufficient Internet access
and are unable to have staff effectively work from home.
To address the digital divide and Internet affordability issue, the Toronto undertook several pilot projects:
• 25 residential tower apartments were planned to be connected to free Internet for a year, covering 13,000 residents
• Public Wi-Fi in shelter sites
• Distribution of 400 connectivity kits that include a laptop and an Internet receiver
• Donation of 5000 smartphones to indigenous populations, each with six months of free data and calls
• Free Wi-Fi access expanded in parks and recreational areas
In early 2021, the government concluded that the measures taken were effective, but hardly scalable and not economically
sustainable. A more ambitious programme, ConnectTO, was therefore initiated as a city-driven collaborative programme that aims
to leverage the use of municipal resources and assets to help bridge the increasing digital divide by expanding access to affordable,
high-speed Internet to underserved Toronto residents.
ConnectTO also aims to streamline and update existing city processes to ensure Internet connectivity planning, such as installing
public Wi-Fi and laying fibre conduits in existing construction work, is embedded in the planning and execution of various city
initiatives moving forward. ConnectTO recommends a phased delivery to effectively build the proper foundation for citywide
deployment.
Access to reliable and affordable internet improves socioeconomic opportunities and access to city services for equity-seeking
groups and vulnerable populations, nurtures innovation, stimulates Toronto’s economic recovery and growth by enabling the digital
economy, supports the city’s long-term fiscal health by creating valuable city assets, and contributes long-term benefits related to
the COVID-19 recovery plan.
Source: UN Habitat, 2021e.; City of Toronto, 2021.
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9.4.2. Avoiding eco-gentrification 9.5. Technological Tools for Inclusive

Eco-gentrification is the process by which urban greening Governance
raises property values and drives out existing residents.
Like the digital divide, the environmental divide can be In a World Bank report on citizen-driven innovation in
considered in terms of the three criteria of access, skills, cities, the term Government 2.0 denotes an advanced
and outcomes: which urban population groups in which mode of municipal government where citizens, developers,
cities have access to environmental technological solutions; city administrations and other actors form partnerships
whether they have the requisite skills to make use of these; to deliver improved, transparent public services.130 This
and whether the outcomes such as reduced air pollution, thinking reflects a growing trend in policy and practice
low-carbon infrastructure benefit them equally. that emphasizes the benefits of involving citizens
and stakeholders in local government. ICT and digital
Cities’ efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change can technologies are considered important enablers of more
exacerbate processes of exclusion: the climate privileged inclusive policy- and decision-making. Consequently, many
benefit from low-carbon investments, green infrastructure cities have put in place various e-government initiatives.
and amenities; whereas for the climate precariat, climate While some follow a more conventional approach consisting
action may result in rising housing and living costs.125 of one-way communication to service users, others pursue
Thus, urban climate policies may produce a distinct form more interactive, multi-stakeholder engagement as part
of gentrification, with middle- and upper-income residents of a drive towards participatory e-governance (Chapter
making choices that afford them access to low-carbon 8). Significantly, ICT and digital tools are also increasingly
infrastructure and favourable mixed-use neighborhoods.126 used to create opportunities for public participation beyond
Similar dynamics will be at work between cities, with some municipal government: civic engagement, e-government and
disadvantaged by a lack of resources to deploy environmental newer concepts like “community technology making.”
technologies, and others able to address the climate crisis
by using environmental innovation to render their cities Technology, however, is no panacea: the potential of
more prosperous and livable places. A further problematic technology-enabled participation depends on the suitability
dynamic between cities across global regions arises from the of technological tools and techniques in particular contexts.
shipment of technological waste to far-away places. A case in Furthermore, public engagement initiatives risk being empty
point is Agboloshie in Accra, one of the world’s largest sites exercises, unless they are properly related to policy and
of electronic waste dumping, including a growing number decision processes, and are supported with relevant skills
of electric vehicle batteries.127 Low-income residents in training to allow participants to engage properly.
that area bear the toxic burden of the low-carbon transition
accelerating elsewhere. The potential of technology-enabled
participation depends on the suitability of
Urban actors need to be aware of the convergence of green technological tools and techniques in particular
and smart technological innovations, and how this potentially contexts
multiplies technological divides. A study of the social effects
of eco-innovation in smart city projects in the city region
of Milan shows that certain social groups were not only 9.5.1. Beyond the basics of e-government
disadvantaged due to the eco-gentrification effect, but were E-government is typically considered at the national level,
also excluded due to a lack of digital literacy.128 but its relevance is felt at the municipal level.131 People
often have a invested interest in what happens in their
The primary motive for addressing digital, environmental and local communities, and local governments deal directly
other divides caused by technological urbanism is evidently with issues affecting residents’ daily lives. Findings from a
to prevent new inequalities from arising and existing global survey of 100 cities found that fewer than half had
ones being further exacerbated. Beyond this, the effort to advanced e-government practices, such as deliberative
bridge these divides should yield wider economic, social, forums, consultations and polls. Instead, most portals
and environmental benefits. Enabling digital technology heavily relied on social media networks, such as YouTube,
positively enhances labour force participation and, thus, Facebook and Twitter.132 Cities need to embrace a more
reduces poverty.129 comprehensive e-government vision and strategy, coupled
with sufficient financial investment. A commitment to
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Figure 9.5: City dashboard Bandung, Indonesia
Source: City of Bandung, 2022.
the use of open data, and attention to data quality and In the US, a study of public engagement platforms used by
interoperability, are necessary stepping stones to realizing local governments identified several approaches to including
broader collaboration.133 residents, such as consulting them on proposed decision
options, inviting them to make suggestions, and involving
City dashboards showcase the potential of ICT to increase them directly in decision-making.138 Examples include:
transparency in municipalities. As city administrations gather IdeaScale (Atlanta), which lets participants submit ideas,
and process increasing amounts of diverse data on urban comment as well as vote on them; and BudgetAllocator
environmental and socioeconomic indicators, dashboards (Bayswater), used for participatory budgeting. The study
help to visualize and organize these data in accessible also highlighted the interrelationship between these online
fashion.134 Types of data presented include census data, data platforms and offline consultation and engagement processes
collected through citizens’ mobile phones, and sensor-based used by local governments. Communities that experiment
measurements of noise or pollution, as exemplified by the with participatory digital platforms are typically ones that have
city dashboard in Bandung, Indonesia (figure 9.5).135 Yet, in a pre-existing commitment to, and a track-record of, citizen
order to ensure the usefulness of such visualization tools, engagement. Mexico City is further example of the innovative
digital and data literacy of residents needs to be promoted.136 use of technology to realize participatory e-government.139
There are numerous examples of cities deploying ICT and 9.5.2. Giving voice through civic engagement
digital technologies creatively to enable residents and Technology-based methods are also used for engagement
stakeholders to become actively engaged. For instance, the activities within communities. One such approach is citizen
city government of Jakarta introduced QlueMyCity, a map- science, which encourages ordinary people (non-experts) to
based integrated reporting and monitoring platform which participate in community-based research on relevant issues.
utilizes citizen participation to identify problems across the The benefits are twofold: first, tapping into local knowledge,
city: citizens may report faulty streetlights, clogged drains, which can inform research and policy by contributing new
waste disposal issues and other infrastructure in need of insights; and second, strengthening the capabilities of
repair (figure 9.6).137 The mobile app subsequently displays individuals and communities. A practical example of citizen
information on how the problem was resolved, and allows science, and the supportive role played by digital technology,
for further feedback. stems from the city of Eskilstuna, Sweden (Box 9.4).
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Figure 9.6: Screenshots from the QlueMyCity app, which utilizes citizen participation to identify problems across the city
Source: Civic Tech Field Guide, 2021.
Box 9.4: Marginalized youth as citizen scientists in Eskilstuna, Sweden
Eskilstuna is a mid-sized Swedish city home to several neighbourhoods where a majority of residents are foreign-born or have
foreign backgrounds as refugees from wartorn countries like Somalia and Syria. In ethnically homogenous Sweden, these
communities have struggled to integrate and their youth population have higher rates of criminal activity, including gang
affiliation and drug trafficking, that have led these neighbourhoods to be stigmatized in the popular imagination. Researchers
enlisted young men in two deprived neighborhoods to serve as citizens scientists, who would use a smartphone app to collect
data about their neighbourhood and its residents. The aim was to engage young people to produce local knowledge about the
experience and everyday challenges of living in marginalized communities. The rationale was that, as citizen scientists, the
participating young people could generate unique knowledge by capturing their surroundings through pictures on their mobile
phones and commenting on the significance of certain sites for their neighborhoods, knowledge that external researchers may
otherwise not easily access. In turn, this could help overcome the gap between the external perceptions of these neighborhoods
and the on-the-ground, lived experience of young people. Insights from this citizen science project were presented to residents
and politicians from Eskilstuna’s municipality at a public event.
Source: Fell et al, 2021
Citizen science projects are increasingly being used in the marginalized and hard-to-reach groups, thereby increasing
implementation and monitoring of the SDGs at the local their representation in datasets. However, there are several
level. Since the SDG indicators are officially reported at challenges, especially in the context of developing countries,
the national level, and municipal governments often do not such as low literacy levels; language barriers between
have the required data to assess progress in achieving the organizers and participants; insufficient organizational
SDGs, citizen science can offer a useful tool for producing capacity to run citizen science projects effectively; and poor
localized data. A study of 139 citizen science projects on infrastructure to support civic engagement.
SDGs in developing countries noted that a strength of the
approach is the ability to generate data using a wide range Digital tools can enable inclusion and community-building
of methods in locations that are inaccessible with other among elderly population groups who often miss out on the
methods.140 Another strength was the opportunity to involve benefits of digitalization. One example is the organization of
294
in creating tools and applications. A review of urban living

Digital tools can enable inclusion and labs in four European cities identified several ways in which
community-building among elderly participating citizens got involved, including measuring local
population groups who often miss out environmental data, testing smart products and developing
on the benefits of digitalization technological devices to improve local services.145 The
European Network of Living Labs is the largest partnership
digital games in Vancouver, where the participation of older of such urban labs and has extend its network globally (see
citizens in a citywide virtual bowling tournament allowed figure 9.7). The study, however, identified as a relative
them to partake in activities which they would otherwise not weakness the exclusion of the participants from the wider
be able to join. Crucially, the digital game helped them build governance of the smart city initiatives with which the living
new social relations that continued after the tournament.141 labs are associated.
Another example of digitally-enabled civic engagement can
be found in Berlin, where the grassroots GoVolunteer app A study of civic hackathons in European cities found that,
facilitates participation in civic and social projects by listing unlike conventional hackathons which mainly cater to high-
over 1,800 volunteering opportunities.142 skilled software developers, these civic versions tend to
include a demographically and socially more diverse set of
9.5.3. Community technology making local participants.146 The main purpose of the hackathons
Public participation can also take the form of “community studied was to involve citizens in analysing open data as a basis
technology making,” which involves residents creating their for informing how their neighbourhoods could be improved.
own digital or technological solutions to urban challenges. This
concept covers a range of formats, including hackerspaces, The question of who gets involved not just in hackathons, but
makerlabs, hardware incubators and fixer collectives, all also in other forms of shared technology making is critical,
of which have in common the aspiration that better urban since too often they tend to attract predominantly male
technologies and environments can be built by their users.143 participants with pre-existing technical knowledge.147 In
One example is Richmond MakerLabs in London, which response, some organizers actively seek to include a diverse
describes itself as an inclusive “community workshop,” and range of participants, thereby promoting a greater equality of
offers access to various technologies, including electronics, gender, race and class. This also opens up opportunities for
3D printing and laser cutting.144 “Urban living lab” is an alternative visions for, and approaches to, technology making
umbrella term used for projects that seek to involve citizens in and hacking of the smart city.
Figure 9.7: Living Labs that are part of the European Network of living labs
Source: Battistoni et al, 2022.
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9.6. Towards Responsible Innovation

A responsible innovation approach should
The preceding sections demonstrate that innovation and involve a wide range of urban stakeholders,
technology harbour risks as well as benefits for cities. Frontier including citizens, who can provide essential
technologies often raise complex ethical, legal and planning local knowledge and practice perspectives
issues. Automation is a case in point: while connected-and-
autonomous vehicles (CAVs) promise to bring benefits to
consumers and society at large, there are several technical, as well as carefully considering negative socioeconomic
ethical, and legal barriers to their adoption in cities.148 This impacts of new technology. To this end, “responsible
includes legal challenges and ethical controversy concerning innovation” offers a promising approach to engage a wide
CAVs’ independent decision-making on the distribution range of stakeholders in assessing the ethical acceptability
of harm between passengers and other road users, like and societal desirability of technological developments.150
pedestrians and cyclists, in the event of traffic accidents. A Responsible innovation has been defined in relation to cities
separate concern is the potential of mass surveillance arising as “a collective commitment of care for the urban futures
from the technical necessity of continuous location tracking through responsive stewardship of science, technology and
of CAVs. Another example is public unease caused by robots innovation in the present.”151
deployed to patrol anti-social behaviour, such as smoking
in an unauthorized area or incorrect parking of bicycles, Responsible innovation goes beyond technology assessment
as recently illustrated in Singapore.149 As discussed earlier, focused on determining quantifiable risks and social impacts;
there are concerns that the automation of jobs will lead to a it equally pays close attention to ethical questions and issues
rise in urban unemployment and, consequently, exacerbate of moral ambiguity.152 It also pays heed to the possibility of
inequalities and strain social cohesion. unintended consequences arising from digital technology
developed for one purpose subsequently being used for
Cities, therefore, need to anticipate systemic changes and other purposes (for example, if drones designed to monitor
major impacts resulting from technological innovations and, traffic were used to track individuals).153 Consequently, a
importantly, be proactive about assessing and managing responsible innovation approach should involve a wide range
them. This should include addressing environmental of urban stakeholders, including citizens, who can provide
externalities, such as resource depletion and habitat loss, essential local knowledge and practice perspectives. Such an
approach should, therefore, also create spaces for the public
scrutiny of the consequences of technological innovations.154
An example of a collaborative approach to shape the future
of urban technology is Flying High, which focused on drones
in cities (Box 9.5).
Urban actors can now consult several frameworks for

responsible innovation. The Montréal Declaration for
Responsible Innovation of Artificial Intelligence, launched
in 2018, provides urban actors with a set of underlying
ethical principles and practical guidelines for accomplishing
digital transitions.155 Cities could also adopt a “technological
sovereignty” approach as used by Barcelona in its Digital City
Plan. Based on three principles—the use of free software; the
interoperability of systems; and the use of open standards—
Barcelona has attempted to lessen the dependence on global
technology companies in its provision of digital services.156
Importantly, responsible innovation raises essential questions
about the social and environmental risks of urban frontier
technologies and, conversely, how innovation and technology
can be deployed inclusively and sustainably.
Electric vehicle Charging stations, New Delhi, India © Shutterstock
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Box 9.5: Collaborative assessment of future drone technology in the UK
Flying High is an initiative run by the UK’s National Endowment for Science, Technology and the Arts since 2017. It brought together
city leaders, regulators, public services, businesses and industry in a dialogical process of exploring systemic requirements for
integrating drones in cities. Five cities and metropolitan regions—Bradford, London, Preston, Southampton and West Midlands—were
engaged to situate the technology assessment within real-world contexts. Among participants, there was strong support for future
drone use where this provided clear social benefits, such as medical deliveries, support for fire and rescue services, and the monitoring
of traffic incidents. Support for commercial uses, such as parcel delivery, was more muted.
The benefits were set against several significant concerns around safety, security and privacy, with agreement that an appropriate
regulatory environment would need to be established to allow autonomous flight in large numbers and over long distances.
Furthermore, regulation should be undergirded by a shared societal vision of what is, or is not, acceptable, for example relating to
noise pollution, safety and commercialization. Tellingly, the assessment revealed that technology developers and regulators had not
previously considered involving cities in the discussion, even though the application of drones is anticipated to be concentrated in
urban areas and as flight in low-altitude airspace directly impacts urban environments.
Source: Nesta, 2018.
9.6.1. Mitigating digital risks Threats to human rights can arise from digital surveillance,
Cities need to consider distinct risks that may arise from the power of dominant digital platforms and the increasing
digital transformations, like security vulnerabilities in use of AI in decision processes. In response, the notion of
smart city technologies.157 Beyond technological threats, “digital rights” has gained traction, in an effort to integrate
social and ethical challenges require careful consideration. the smart city and its technologies with ethical principles.159
One major concern is that fundamental human rights may Four risks of digitalization are highlighted in Table 9.2,
be at stake as human activity is increasingly subjected to alongside examples of cities’ responses.
hyperconnectivity, datafication and algorithmization.158
Table 9.2: Four risks of digitalization, and examples of mitigation measures
Risks Mitigation measures
Erosion of privacy: As highlighted by the United Nations Human Rights Council, digital Hamburg data strategy mandates the anonymization and aggregation
innovations risk eroding privacy and related freedoms, including free movement and of data to ensure the protection of sensitive personal data.161
speech160.
Biases of automated and AI-enabled processes: Software developed by tech firms Helsinki has begun to compile its own datasets for training AI-
has been found to discriminate against people of colour, ethnic groups, or religious enabled services to avoid reliance on global software developers
minorities.162 unfamiliar with the city’s demographic composition.163
Threat of exclusion: Increasing reliance on algorithms can exclude citizens from Medellin’s smart city initiative Medellín Ciudad Inteligente complements
decision-making processes, while digital and environmental divides can exclude urban Wi-Fi rollout in public parks and schools with digital literacy training
dwellers from the benefits of innovation. for 10,000 residents per year, prioritizing those living in deprived
neighbourhoods.164
Data misuse: Data can get processed and analyzed for other purposes than originally Portland defines and justifies clear targets that data collection shall
intended, such as facial and number plate recognition software used to surveil citizens’ support and collects only the minimum quantity of data necessary to
movements. fulfil those purposes.165
297
The four risks of digitalization may be heightened in depots, with the likely loss of habitat and increased
developing countries and cities for three related reasons. urban sprawl.173 Electrification should rely on electricity
First, automated and digital solutions designed in developed from clean sources.174
countries can exacerbate the risks of discrimination, bias
and surveillance when the technology is applied in cities Energy consumption of smart technology: There is a
in developing countries. 166Second, low- and middle- heightened risk of a rebound effect for ICTs, whereby
income countries may not have the necessary resources energy-saving gains are cancelled out by growing
and institutions to redress inequalities arising from digital consumption patterns.175 For instance, the annual
transformations, and to protect marginalized people’s rights. energy consumption of Bitcoin cryptocurrency is higher
Third, due to a comparably weak research and development than that of Ireland, accounting for 0.5 per cent of global
base and limited resource capacities, they risk becoming electricity demand in 2018. 176
technologically dependent on corporations from the Global
North.167 In order to understand the repercussions of digital Box 9.6: Mitigation measures for environmental
innovations in cities in emerging economies, digital ethicists risks.
have suggested that bespoke impact assessments be carried
out where technology developed in the Global North is to be The circular economy offers a possible framework to
deployed in the Global South.168 Another recommendation address some of above-mentioned environmental risks
is to trial new tools and processes first in specified districts by ensuring the responsible use of resources in cities and
in emerging cities, before scaling them up to the citywide promoting sustainable innovation.177 An example is the
level.169 Park 20/20 office complex in Amsterdam, where, following
the cradle-to-cradle concept, construction materials and
9.6.2. Addressing environmental risks green technology can be dismantled and fully repurposed at
The case for low-carbon technologies is by now well- the end of a building’s lifespan.178 Elsewhere, the Togolese
established: they are essential for clean energy generation innovation laboratory WoeLab launched the HubCité project
and for the decarbonization of urban infrastructure systems, in the capital, Lomé, to demonstrate that the circular
such as transportation (Chapter 5). Yet, their associated economy is neither confined to global cities nor contingent
environmental externalities, as well as potential health risks, on large financial investments. By providing technological
should not be overlooked. In encouraging the adoption of equipment and training through two innovation spaces,
low-carbon technologies, urban actors need to be aware of WoeLab encourages residents to create collaborative
negative impacts and consider how to mitigate these. Several hyper-local urban projects and find low-tech solutions to
key risks are highlighted below, while Box 9.6 discusses challenges, including waste management and recycling, in
innovative mitigation measures from the circular economy in their neighbourhoods.179
both high- and low-tech contexts.
Reliance on critical raw materials: According to

the United Nations Environmental Programme’s In order to ensure that innovation and technological
International Resource Panel, an estimated 600 metric development are not pursued just for their own sake, but
tons of metal resources will be needed by 2050 to meet rather in a socially responsible manner to enable sustainable
the demands of additional infrastructure and wiring.170 urban development, a key question to ask is to what extent
do urban technological innovations result in better outcomes
Generation of toxic waste: Arises from both the for residents and the environment? Moreover, technology
production of low-carbon technologies such as assessment should consider the distribution of benefits and
semiconductors for photovoltaic solar panels, wind costs to determine whether certain social groups and certain
turbines and end-of-life decommissioning.171 Toxic waste places benefit more, while others bear disproportionate
management disproportionally affects citizens’ health in risks.180 This analysis matters for relations both within cities
developing countries.172 as well as between cities if the goal of urban technology is to
engender equitable and just development.
Adverse impacts on biodiversity: The electrification of
transportation and the rollout of CAVs require new types
of infrastructure, such as charging stations and vehicle
298
9.7. Concluding Remarks and Lessons for The likelihood of new inequalities arising from
Policy technological developments, and existing ones becoming
more entrenched, requires careful attention and
The acceleration and convergence of various green and active intervention. There is strong evidence of digital
smart technological innovations are being widely witnessed marginalization disproportionally affecting poor people,
in contemporary urban planning and development and are the undereducated, women and older persons, especially,
set to be a dominant force determining our urban futures. though not exclusively in developing countries. Digital
City governments and other urban stakeholders have an labour platforms, while offering accessible and flexible
active role to play in deciding how innovation and technology work, may expose workers to precarious conditions
are adapted in ways that suit specific urban contexts and without some regulatory safety nets. Inequalities can
benefit sustainable development. There are significant also arise if environmental technologies unevenly
opportunities for localized approaches, given the trend benefit certain groups of residents and neighborhoods.
towards flexible and modular technological innovations, Conversely, some urban communities are at greater risk of
as exemplified by micro-grid renewable energy systems environmental harm caused by technology.
and community digital platforms. At the same time, cities
need to address systemic threats, such as the prospect of Skills development and training have emerged as critical
rising socioeconomic inequalities caused by automation areas of action. This issue partly relates to the workforce
and digitalization. Altogether, this highlights the need for in some formal sectors, where digitalization and
ongoing social and institutional innovation to accompany especially automation are on course to make a growing
technological developments, including investment in skills number of tasks undertaken by humans redundant.
training and support for community partnerships. Here, the example of Singapore demonstrates the
opportunity for retraining and upskilling to allow workers
The evidence presented in this chapter prompts seven key to shift to jobs not at risk of automation. It also relates
lessons for sustainable urban futures. These point to an to the informal economy, where the provision of basic
overarching commitment to the inclusive deployment of skills training and digital literacy are essential to enable
technology for the well-being of citizens and the environment people to use mobile Internet and microwork platforms.
and emphasize the agency of cities as hosts, initiators and The deployment of digital ambassadors or technology
implementors of innovation and technology. mediators can prove useful to achieve strong community
participation. Beyond work, digital skills training is
City governments should utilize their convening power essential to allow otherwise disenfranchised groups to
to foster a thriving innovation ecosystem and support benefit from digital services, such as telehealth care.
locally embedded socio-technical development. This can
be achieved with territorial planning, fiscal incentives and Connected and digital technologies offer city governments
other measures to support the co-location of research a range of opportunities to improve openness and
organizations, start-ups, industry and social enterprises. actively engage with residents. The evidence shows
Innovation should also be encouraged in the informal that e-government is too often used merely for one-way
sector, mainly in developing countries, by recognizing and communication, though there are flourishing examples
supporting informal entrepreneurs within the community. of cites using technology more innovatively, for example
with interactive apps and online platforms that allow
Cities embedded within wider regional and national active citizen participation. Beyond city administrations,
innovation systems, can act as innovators and implement technology can be used to strengthen civic engagement
technology to steer sustainable urban development. and community technology making.
This relates to both the delivery of public services and
the development and management of various urban Cities need to take into account negative environmental
infrastructures. The example of the Rogland region in externalities when investing in various low carbon
Norway, where 11 municipalities jointly developed an and ICT technologies. There is a significant risk of a
integrated LED street and park lighting system using rebound effect, whereby energy savings achieved by
their own industrial company, illustrates cities’ role connected and digital technologies are cancelled out by
as innovators. It also demonstrates the benefits of increasing consumption. Additionally, there is particular
cooperation and knowledge exchange among cities. concern about the energy intensive nature of blockchain
299
technology, which is seen by many as integral to the next robust technology assessment relating to ethical, legal,
generation of smart cities. social and environmental aspects. The example of aerial
drones demonstrates both the complexities of issues
Finally, given the need to weigh benefits and risks of raised and the importance of cities’ involvement in
new technology, cities should commit to undertake a assessing and regulating technological innovations.
Endnotes
1. I RP, 2017. 50. F onseca and Whitney, 2021. 90. L und et al, 2021. 134. oung et al, 2021.
Y
2. Li et al, 2019; Zhang et al, 2019. 51. EDF, 2021 91. WEF, 2020b. 135. Vila et al, 2018.
3. OECD, 2019 52. Department for Transport, 2019 92. Axios, 2019 136. Young et al, 2021.
4. OECD, 2019 53. IEA, 2021b 93. Government of Singapore, 2021. 137. Allen et al, 2020.
5. UN Habitat, 2020g. 54. UNEP, 2021a; UNEP, 2021b 94. Business Insider, 2021; West et al, 138. Cho et al, 2021.
6. OECD, 2019c. 55. Fonseca and Whitney, 2021. 2021 139. Cruz Ruiz, 2021.
7. Rosenthal et al, 2020. 56. Fonseca and Whitney, 2021. 95. Bellomo et al, 2020. 140. Pateman et al, 2021.
8. JPI Urban Europe, 2022 57. Wood et al, 2019 96. Erachalu et al, 2021. 141. Schell et al, 2017
9. OECD, 2020d. 58. GIZ, 2020a 97. UN Habitat, 2021e. 142. Mos, 2021.
10. Schraven et al, 2021 59. Tucker et al, 2020. 98. United Nations, 2017. 143. Rosner et al, 2014.
11. Allied Market Research, 2018 60. The platform economy is based 99. Robin et al, 2021. 144. Richmond MakerLabs, 2022.
12. Joss et al, 2019 on online marketplaces where the 100. Van Dijk, 2020. 145. Nesti, 2020.
13. Yigitcanlar et al, 2021 operators bring together vendors 101. UNCTAD, 2021a 146. Jaskiewicz et al, 2020.
14. ISO, 2020. and customers. The platform 102. ITU, 2018. 147. Perng, 2019.
15. City of Amsterdam, 2022 economy creates new employment 103. UN Habitat, 2021e. 148. Gill, 2021.
16. City of Melbourne, 2022 opportunities for those who work 104. Ajuntament de Barcelona, 2021. 149. Euronews, 2021; The Guardian,
17. Tironi et al, in: Karvonen et al, 2019 in the informal economy but it can 105. Mulyaningsih et al, 2020. 2021b.
18. Shelton et al, 2015 also mean new dependencies and 106. Van Deursen et al, 2018; Van Dijk, 150. Nagenborg, 2020.
19. Karvonen et al, 2019; Aurigi et al, discrimination (GIZ, 2020b) 2020. 151. Yigitcanlar et al, 2021 (citing Owen
2021. 61. G20, 2018. 107. UNCTAD, 2021a et al, 2013).
20. Jiang et al, 2020; Kitchin et al, 2017 62. Kwami, 2015. 108. UNCTAD, 2021a 152. Van Lente et al, 2017.
21. UN-Habitat, 2021g.; Trencher, 2019. 63. Keskinen et al, 2021. 109. Mulyaningsih et al, 2020; Joshi et al, 153. Whittlestone et al, 2019
22. Cardullo et al, 2019; Cardullo et al 64. Sadowski, 2020. 2020. 154. Calvo, 2020.
(eds.), 2019; Willis, 2019 65. Barns, 2020; Rodgers and Moore, 110. Bakshi et al, 2021. 155. Université de Montréal, 2018.
23. Burns et al, 2021. 2018; Repette et al, 2021. 111. Stark, 2021. 156. Foth et al, 2021.
24. Martin et al, 2018. 66. Reuters, 2021; University of 112. Valenzuela-Levi, 2021. 157. Kitchin et al, 2019.
25. Yigitcanlar et al, 2020. Cincinnati Law Review, 2021. 113. Van Dijk, 2020. 158. Calvo, 2020; Karppinen et al, 2020
26. Evans et al, 2019 67. Bauriedl et al, 2020; Standing, 2018. 114. World Bank, 2021b. 159. Calzada et al, 2020
27. Van Noordt et al, 2019; Ryan et al, 68. Wood et al, 2019. 115. Mulyaningsih et al, 2020. 160. UNHRC, 2021.
2019; Curran et al, 2021 69. Bates et al, 2019. 116. Van Rensburg et al, 2019. 161. Ryan et al, 2019.
28. WEF, 2021b; Krishnan et al, 2021. 70. Bates et al, 2019; ILO, 2019. 117. Joshi et al, 2020 162. Yigitcanlar et al, 2021.
29. Kumar et al, 2020. 71. World Bank, 2016. 118. Cities Coalition for Digital Rights, 163. Ryan et al, 2019.
30. Designing Buildings, 2020. 72. Frey et al, 2017 2021 164. Irazábal and Jirón, 2020
31. BloombergNEF, 2021. 73. Van Noordt et al, 2019; Ryan et al, 119. Valenzuela-Levi, 2021. 165. City of Portland, 2021.
32. Yamagata et al (eds.), 2020. 2019. 120. Jakimowicz, 2021. 166. Arun, 2020
33. IRENA, 2020. 74. Fernández et al, 2015. 121. World Bank, 2021b 167. GIZ, 2020a.
34. Department for Transport, 2019. 75. World Bank, 2018c. 122. Jakimowicz, 2021; City of 168. Arun, 2020
35. IEA, 2021a. 76. Mira-Bonnardel, 2021; WEF, 2021c. Chattanooga Office of Economic 169. GIZ, 2020a.
36. Roland Berger, 2021. 77. McKinsey Global Institute, 2021. Development, 2019; NEXTpittsburgh, 170. IRP, 2017
37. Fortune Business Insights, 2021. 78. Kunzmann, 2020. 2015. 171. Matatiele et al, 2016.
38. Infiniti Research Limited, 2021. 79. ILO, 2019; ILO, 2021b. 123. City of Toronto, 2021. 172. Robin et al, 2021
39. Ryan et al, 2019. 80. Lund et al, 2021. 124. Cities Coalition for Digital Rights, 173. Goddard et al, 2021.
40. Allied Market Research, 2018. 81. Florida et al, 2021. 2021; UN Habitat, 2020j. 174. IRP, 2017.
41. UNEP, 2019b. 82. The Guardian, 2021a; UNCTAD, 125. Robin et al, 2021. 175. IRP, 2017; Hedberg et al, 2019.
42. StartUs Insights, 2021 2021b. 126. Rice et al, 2019. 176. Ghosh et al, 2021.
43. McKinsey, 2021 83. IEA, 2021c 127. Sovacool et al, 2020. 177. Lakatos et al, 2021
44. EEA, 2021 84. Rachmawati et al, 2021. 128. Beretta, 2018 178. Cradle to Cradle Certified, 2017.
45. World Bank,2018c. 85. Hu et al, 2020. 129. World Bank, 2021b. 179. Agbodjinou, 2020
46. World Bank, 2018c. 86. Feichtinger et al, 2021 130. Eskelinen et al, 2015. 180. Yigitcanlar et al, 2021.
47. Viola, 2020. 87. Lund et al, 2021. 131. UNDESA, 2020a.
48. Hoffmann et al, 2020 88. Frank et al, 2018 132. UNDESA, 2020a
49. WHO, 2018c. 89. Hilpert, 2021. 133. De Filippi et al, 2020.
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Chapter 10:
Building Resilience for
Sustainable Urban Futures
301
Building Resilience for Sustainable Urban Futures
Policy points
1. Building resilience for sustainable urban futures requires integrated linkage of the various
pillars of the global sustainable development agenda.
2. Building urban resilience is a multisectoral, multidimensional, multi-stakeholder process

that requires a clear change of trajectory from previous paths.
3. Effective urban resilience capacity building requires mainstreaming across local

governments.
4. Governments have a roadmap to urban resilience in the global sustainable development

agenda.
5. Cities, subnational governments and other urban actors should urgently prioritize bottom-up
approaches when designing urban resilience interventions.
6. Building resilience requires innovative, and sustainable financing instruments beyond the
traditional fiscal tools at the disposal of cities and national governments.
7. Integrated urban planning is an essential component and prerequisite for resilient urban
futures.
8. Extending social protection to informal sector workers is critical for inclusive development
and resilient urban futures.
9. Investing in key urban infrastructure must be a prerequisite for building sustainable and
resilient urban futures.
10. Policymakers must match urban risk assessments with appropriate solutions.
11. Visioning and implementation of urban resilience plans must prioritize the poorest and
most vulnerable communities.
12. Building urban resilience will not succeed without public participation.
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The world’s cities find themselves at a crossroads of and highlighted the highly unequal access to vaccines and
uncertainty as to which scenario of urban futures awaits people’s willingness to accept them. Recent experience
them. Will they embark on an optimistic path of more just, demonstrate that other epidemics and pandemics should be
green and equitable cities? Will business as usual lead them anticipated in both emergency and longer-term sustainability
down a pessimistic path of a widening gap between the urban and resilience planning.
rich who can adapt to twenty-first century challenges and
the urban poor who will suffer? Or will they nosedive into The effects of COVID-19 have dramatically exposed urban
a high damage scenario of catastrophic destruction at the fault lines and highlight that building resilience will require
hands of cascading public health emergencies, climate crises a stronger, more effective multilateral system capable of
and armed conflicts? While many factors influence these complementing and reinforcing national and local efforts
pathways, resilience is key to determining urban futures. to put the world firmly on the trajectory of sustainable
development. Accordingly, the objectives of this final chapter
Since the World Cities Report 2020 was published in the are to offer clear policy directions for governments and
early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, the world has become relevant national, regional and local stakeholders in diverse
a more uncertain place punctuated by localized events with contexts to build resilience, which lies at heart of sustainable
global consequence. No human settlement was left untouched urban futures; and to strengthen and integrate the narratives
by COVID-19, even with widespread, if unevenly distributed, in previous chapters, presenting strong recommendations,
access to safe and effective vaccines. Although many, but especially regarding the complementary roles of national
certainly not all, cities find themselves in 2022 figuring out and local governments. The term “urban futures” is used
how to live with COVID-19, they are now facing other shocks. here in recognition of the various potential future scenarios
Persistent and new armed conflict have acute direct impacts in explored in Chapters 1 and 2 but equally importantly, the
cities across Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Syria, Ukraine and Yemen. diverse culturally and locally specific forms that human
Spikes in food and energy prices, as well as runaway inflation, settlements may take in the future.
have created new economic stresses for municipal finances
and urban household budgets alike. China’s zero-COVID In pursuit of these objectives, two key messages are
policy has disrupted supply chains in the world’s second- emphasized through this chapter. First, that building
largest economy. Meanwhile, the long-term stress of climate resilience for sustainable urban development requires
change continues to threaten the world’s cities as extreme integrated linkage of the various pillars of the global
weather events and climate disasters like heatwaves, wildfires, sustainable development agenda. These are the 2030 Agenda
hurricanes and typhoons become more frequent and intense. for Sustainable Development the New Urban Agenda, Sendai
Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, Addis Ababa Action
The suffering caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has set back Agenda and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. Second,
economic and social development and undermined some building urban resilience is a multisectoral, multidimensional,
sustainability efforts in the short term. Beyond that, it has multi-stakeholder process that requires a clear change of
exacerbated inequalities and poverty as shown in Chapters trajectory from previous paths. This approach entails more
1 and 3. The global rise in inequality since 2020 profoundly than just building back better, if doing so would occur on the
underlines the unsustainability of many current lifestyles, same lines that perpetuate inequalities and injustice.
consumption patterns and livelihoods and thus the urgency
of transitions and transformations to build resilience for In essence, it is about building back differently. From this
more equitable and sustainable urban and societal futures. mindset, it follows that poverty and inequality are incompat-
ible with sustainability and resilience since they undermine
The pandemic emerged suddenly and transformed the the basis of urban stability and potentially the fabric of society.
world dramatically through 2020 and 2021. Although
recovery gathered momentum during the first half of 2022, The next section examines the concept of resilience in
its geographically and socially very uneven complexion, detail, but it is important here to clarify two related terms,
determined in large part by the availability and uptake of vulnerability and adaptation. Both are used in relation to many
vaccines, means that the pandemic’s shadow will linger far different hazards, risks, shocks or threats, including climate
longer. Indeed, the emergence and rapid global spread of the change, environmental degradation, COVID-19 and other
highly transmissible but fortunately less virulent Omicron infectious diseases, economic change, political uncertainty
variant at the end of 2021 exposed the fragility of recovery and instability, and armed conflict. Vulnerability refers to
303
an inadequate ability to withstand or resist one or more of previous status quo, regardless of how unequal and unjust
these shocks and stresses because of health status, deficient it was, the requirement of progressive changes to reduce
resources, or particular characteristics of an individual, group, poverty, inequity and injustice was added more recently.7
location, infrastructure, etc. Adaptation is how individuals or
groups respond by changing behaviour, such as making new An added difficulty is that, like sustainability, resilience is often
investments, adjusting building standards, relocating facilities considered to represent stability or equilibrium. However,
or creating early warning and rapid response systems in order that implies rigidity and a lack of flexibility to change and
to increase their ability to resist, cope with and otherwise adapt as the environment and other circumstances change.
learn to live with the hazard or risk in question. Even dynamic equilibrium implies more flexible stability
within certain boundaries, which may be appropriate for
natural ecosystems or even farming systems, though even
10.1. Defining, Understanding and there the evidence shows that the severity of shocks and
Measuring Resilience recovery time are not clearly related.8 In social sciences
and in urban contexts, which are entirely human artifacts,
Although resilience is key for cities to move toward dynamic equilibrium fails adequately to capture the major
the optimistic scenario of urban futures laid out in this rethinking and restructuring now required.
Report, the term itself deserves consideration. Resilience,
like sustainability, has a complex history and is often It is important, therefore, to define and use these terms
used imprecisely and with diverse meanings in different clearly and consistently. Accordingly, here urban resilience
communities of practice and contexts, even within the urban is framed as coping with and recovering from a shock by
arena.1 This imprecision is unhelpful both analytically and “bouncing back differently” to emphasize the need for
in terms of implementation. Indeed, despite their distinct substantive change in view of the urgency of meeting the
meanings, sustainability and resilience are often conflated or various targets of the SDGs by 2030 and attaining net zero
used interchangeably, including in some documents of the emissions by 2050 at the latest. Many relatively simple and
global sustainable development agenda.2 low-cost adjustments, such as equipping streetlights with
LED bulbs, have already been widely made, so there are
10.1.1. Defining resilience often fewer low-hanging fruit left to pick in the transition to
It is noteworthy that, despite mentioning resilience a total urban sustainability and resilience.
of 17 times, the New Urban Agenda does not define the
concept, which implies an assumption that its meaning As the IPCC9 and other authoritative recent reports10 have
is clear and universally understood. Yet this is certainly warned starkly, progress to date has been inadequate. In order
not the case since the proliferation of definitions and to increase the rate and scale of change needed to achieve
widespread lack of clarity regarding measurement of these objectives, incremental progress is no longer sufficient
resilience “leads to crippling disconnects.”3 Particularly in and more substantive urban transformations are now required.
urban contexts, which are the main focus here, this can be
problematic. One difficulty is that some narrow definitions The rest of this chapter explores this imperative in greater
of sustainability focus principally on increased resource detail, disaggregating the concept into its economic, social,
efficiency, perhaps even excluding social justice and equity environmental and institutional elements for greater
(including intergenerational equity), even though these have clarity and precision. This builds on the approach refined
been central to sustainability discourse since at least the by UN-Habitat in recent years: “Both the UN-Habitat and
Brundtland Commission report in 1987.4 Such narrow uses the ‘just sustainabilities’ approaches to urban resilience
of sustainability lead to the reduction or elimination of one look beyond the natural environment, and take in other
key dimension of resilience, namely redundancy,5 which is dimensions such as long-term, participatory in-situ slum
fundamental to recoverability. and infrastructure upgrading, relocation to improved sites,
institutional development and building both awareness and
Early formulations of resilience—as reflected in the Global local capacity to respond and adapt.”11
Report on Human Settlements 20116—were framed in terms
of the ability to withstand and recover from an external Urban resilience cannot be achieved in isolation from resilience
shock and were popularized by the phrase “bouncing back.” of the wider territories and societies of which urban areas form
Following criticism that bouncing back meant restoring the integral elements. As the COVID-19 pandemic has underlined,
304
this requires both a holistic perspective on resilience and boundaries. These are usually the individual local
effective multi-scale collaborations and integration. National government unit, although in large cities this is likely to be
border closures affected urban populations, while citywide the strategic citywide or metropolitan authority. Increasingly,
lockdown measures had impacts on national economies. however, it is recognized that planning should be multi-
In areas like food systems, reliable regional logistics were scalar and include the scale of the city region, embracing
essential to maintaining food supplies during the crisis.12 the surrounding peri-urban and rural areas comprising the
functional region integral to the city for food, resources,
In these respects, it is also pertinent to reiterate the key waste disposal, travel to work and the like. To be effective at
messages from the World Cities Report 2020, which highlighted this scale requires multilevel governance, both horizontally
in detail the various dimensions of the value of sustainable among local government units but also vertically, between
urbanization, the urgency of tackling climate change, and the national, regional and local levels.16
importance of using the New Urban Agenda and Sustainable
Development Goals—especially Goal 11 on sustainable urban 10.1.2. Measuring resilience
areas and communities—as accelerators.13 As the recent IPCC Various initiatives have sought to provide comprehensive
and other reports cited above indicate authoritatively, the approaches to resilience planning through integrated and
urgency has only increased over the last two years, with the territorial programming and scorecard methodologies. These
continuing ravages of COVID-19 in urban areas underscoring include the City Resilience Program, a partnership between
the structural vulnerabilities and need to build resilience: the World Bank and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction
and Recovery, launched in 2017 to “catalyse a shift toward
The pandemic has also put cities to the test, revealing that even longer term, more comprehensive multidisciplinary packages
apparently affluent and highly developed urban centres are only of technical and financial services, building the pipeline for
as resilient as their most vulnerable areas and communities. viable projects at the city level that, in turn, build resilience.”17
Furthermore, COVID-19 has highlighted the urgent need for There is also the proprietary Plan Integration of Resilience
inclusive access to services and amenities for all urban dwellers: Scorecard, which has recently been applied comparatively to
all too often, the current emergency has only made more visible two contrasting modest-sized cities in the US.18
the profound inequalities in health, housing and income that
divided many cities long before the pandemic began.14 Arguably the most sophisticated, relevant and widely
deployed measurement schema to date is the City
Upscaling ambition to move from incremental urban Resilience Index (CRI) developed by Arup for the Rockefeller
transitions to substantive urban transformations—and Foundation’s 100 Resilient Cities programme (which
to bridge the gap between bold city visions and coherent disbanded in 2019) as a tool for measuring implementation
programmes of actions to achieve the objectives15—is of the City Resilience Framework (Box 10.1).19 Given the
therefore essential in order to achieve the optimistic scenario index’s comprehensiveness, all the themes in this Report are
of urban futures. In practical terms, however, it is essential represented by a dimension or goal in local combinations,
to understand, measure and operationalize urban resilience and it is to more detailed consideration of the economic
gaps and strategies in relation to the relevant administrative dimension that this chapter now turns.
Box 10.1: The City Resilience Index (CRI)
The CRI was intended for all member cities to adopt and implement as a tool for measuring progress towards overall resilience over
time. Represented by a circle, the CRI comprises four dimensions: health and well-being; economy and society; infrastructure and
ecosystems; and leadership and strategy. Each of these, in turn, has 12 goals subdivided into a total of 52 indicators designed to
capture the many complementary elements of resilience (Figure 10.1). The four dimensions correspond well to the components of
resilience examined in the successive sections of this chapter.20 The extent to which the CRI had been implemented by the time of
the programme’s end in mid-2019 varies, but some examples are given in later sections of this chapter.21 A key part of the process
has been aligning local strategies with locally relevant elements of the global sustainable development agenda, especially the
SDGs, although only a proportion have so far done this explicitly.22
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The same assessment found that the 100 Resilient Cities tools over-represent disaster-related issues relative to social themes
but that the tools were useful in helping to identify local priorities and capacity building needs: “In doing so, they highlight the
importance of planning and capacity and the role of resources, data, and technology that comes with building urban resilience—all
crucial for achieving any of the global goals.”23 These issues are addressed in later sections of this chapter.
Figure 10.1: The Rockefeller-Arup City Resilience Index
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306 306
10.2. Economic Resilience

The pandemic underscored the risks of
Urban economic resilience refers to the ability of a city’s depending solely on a single driver such
economy to withstand and recover from turbulence and as tourism or mining
shocks (Chapter 4). However, in view of the foregoing
discussion in Section 10.1, it is essential not just to focus that can withstand and recover from multiple crises while
on economic activity as such, but to incorporate poverty at the same time moving towards equitable and inclusive
reduction and more equitable distribution of economic growth. In cities that are experiencing urban shrinkage,
opportunities and rewards as key characteristics. Only by economic diversification should be accompanied by proactive
so doing can the socio-spatial disadvantages and constraints broader economic policies and programmes, with targeted
facing the poorest and weakest residents be tackled. In economic restructuring that is aimed at strengthening the
other words, economic justice is an essential component of competitiveness of new and emerging sectors (most notably
economic resilience. Similarly, the multidimensional nature knowledge-based industries) in line with the current and
of poverty and inequality, as examined in Chapter 3, means future economic realities. As the world moves towards the
that these also constitute social and environmental challenges 2030 deadline to achieve the SDGs, policymakers at all
that are dealt with in the respective sections below. levels cannot afford to remain indifferent to the fragility and
vulnerability of urban economies to unanticipated shocks
10.2.1. Diversification, repositioning and and crises, which can potentially reverse development gains
strengthening of the urban economy accrued over the years.
An optimistic version of the post-pandemic24 and climate-
resilient era, which this Report seeks to assist local
governments in achieving, requires a different structure and
balance of urban economic activities, driven increasingly Economic diversification
by renewable energy, circular economic activity and green requires urban leaders
employment. Chapter 4 notes that the need for economic who are forward-
diversification and structural transformation has never been looking and strategic
more urgent because of the multiple crises confronting in formulating policies
cities. Economic diversification and structural transformation that strengthen urban
safeguard urban economies against future shocks and provide economic resilience
a more stable and progressive path toward inclusive growth.
The pandemic underscored the risks of depending solely on Earlier concerns that economic greening would cause
a single driver such as tourism or mining, since any economic large-scale job losses and impose a heavy economic price
downturn could have catastrophic and lasting impacts on the have now been allayed by the growing evidence that such
urban economy. As we move into the future, cities should losses are more than compensated for by the increasingly
pursue policy measures that enable economic diversification, diverse productive and commercial opportunities required to
such as smart urban regulations, strategic investment enable the green transition.25 Although some declining or
incentives, green infrastructure development, skills training, “sunset” industries continue to resist change, the majority
innovation districts, and enterprise support and finance, are switching production increasingly into green, recyclable
particularly for small and medium-size enterprises —which and renewable commodities and energy systems through a
are the engine of most economies. Collectively, these mixture of fiscal measures and straightforward profitable
measures create competitive and vibrant cities that can turn opportunities as the scale and rate of the green shift
around the economic fortunes of urban areas and more easily accelerate (see below and Chapter 5).
adapt to unanticipated changing dynamics.
Additionally, increasing net employment, which often includes
Economic diversification requires urban leaders who are considerable informal income-generating opportunities, is being
forward-looking and strategic in formulating policies that generated by new construction to comply with green building
strengthen urban economic resilience and prioritize building codes and the retrofitting of existing homes, industrial and
of productive urban futures that work for all. The COVID-19 commercial premises with insulation, low-energy lighting and
pandemic is a wake-up call for both cities and subnational renewable energy generating facilities, as well as installation
governments on the importance of developing economies and maintenance of green roofs and walls. The same applies
307
at the neighbourhood and urban scales with installation and integrated perspectives of this Report.27 Although not yet
maintenance of green-blue infrastructure to reduce urban tested in detail, this approach appears to hold promise.
heat island effect, increase water runoff retention and grey
water recycling, and enhance other nature-based solutions 10.2.2. The circular economy as a frontier for
and urban biodiversity. All of these are important areas for resilient urban futures
appropriate local government leadership and collaboration with The COVID-19 pandemic is a tipping point that proves the
other stakeholders to leverage complementary investment and need to adopt the circular economy as an alternative model
maximize a sense of shared ownership. of resilient and sustainable urban futures, with the potential
for unlocking significant social, economic and environmental
Alongside improvements in efficiency of space and resource benefits (Chapter 4). In some contexts, cities were already
utilization, increased productivity, wages and employment experimenting with the concept of circular urban economies
conditions are important, since “[s]ustainable urbanization and to promote economic resilience in their urban systems.
productive cities go hand in hand. In seeking to enhance the For instance, London, Paris and Amsterdam were already
economic value of urbanization, efforts should be made to ensure champions in adopting circular economies to reposition their
that economically productive cities are also environmentally cities to emerging trends. Such initiatives have the potential
sustainable, resilient, socially inclusive and safe.”26 to generate new green jobs offering decent work. The effort
of individual cities is boosted by the broader European
Research increasingly emphasizes the importance Green Deal, which aims to make Europe the first climate-
of understanding enhanced productivity not just in neutral continent, while ensuring that no one is left behind
conventional terms but very much as an integral component in the transition. It is important, however, to note that the
of holistic urban sustainability. One recent conceptual urban transition to a circular economy must be carefully planned,
productivity framework comprises the different categories considering different factors such as social, economic and
of capital—natural, socio-cultural, human, economic and political dynamics in each country. There is no one-size-
physical—which should be addressed by means of systemic fits-all approach to this transition; each city has a unique
thinking, equity, justice, co-production, governance and urban ecosystem and therefore any repositioning of the local
regeneration, all of which are values consistent with the economy should factor in local contextual factors.
Downtown Amsterdam, Netherlands © Shutterstock
308
10.2.3. Support for the informal sector poverty and unemployment. Some activities are gendered,
A resilient and inclusive urban future hinges on a reflecting cultural norms and values in different situations.
transformative and just urban economic agenda, which
must be driven by policy and programmatic support for the Municipal interventions to improve informal economies
informal sector, particularly in developing regions. include establishing more and inclusive legitimate workspaces,
facilitating the integration of informal economic actors in
Going forward, city and national governments should urban and regional supply chains and markets, upgrading
make urban policies and plans inclusive by recognizing the facilities and improving sanitary and health conditions by
contribution of the informal sector to urban economies. building covered markets and manufacturing workshop hubs
The pandemic and other crises have exposed the stark with suitable water and related infrastructure, and providing
vulnerabilities and structural impediments that continue access to shared or hired equipment. Even well-intentioned
to undermine the productivity of the informal sector in interventions may have the same unintended negative effect
the absence of tailored support measures. Therefore, a if these facilities are located away from main thoroughfares,
critical element of the transformative urban economic bus depots, rail stations and interchanges, which is where
policy is targeted support for informal activities by means of potential sales and client accessibility are highest. Sanitation
and health facilities and regulations should also be appropriate
to the nature of the diverse forms of informal enterprises to
A critical element of the transformative encourage and facilitate improvements and upgrades instead
urban economic policy is targeted of forcing them out of business or displacing them. These
support for informal activities by means measures should also consider the heterogenous nature of
of appropriate interventions informal businesses so that their specific needs and priorities
are adequately addressed.
appropriate interventions to address specific vulnerabilities
and insecurities of income and livelihood that undermine Any such new facilities and regulations need to be designed
the resilience of such activities. This also constitutes an and constructed in consultation with the informal or small
effective way for local governments to reduce poverty and entrepreneurs on a participatory or co-design basis so that
promote economic justice for some of the most vulnerable their requirements can be met, and the process can provide
economically active urban residents, especially women, a foundation for developing more positive working relations.
young people, migrants, refugees, and disabled participants, Indeed, a helpful way to achieve this is to regard informal
among other vulnerable groups (Chapters 3 and 4).28 In enterprises as one category of micro-enterprises. Small,
many cities, informal traders and entrepreneurs are still affordable user charges for services that informal traders
stigmatized, while their activities are often criminalized
and subjected to hostile and repressive urban policies and
practices, all of which make it difficult to earn a living in Municipal interventions to improve
a dignified manner (Chapter 3). Spatial restrictions—often informal economies include establishing
enacted at the behest of formal shopkeepers fearful of being more and inclusive legitimate
undercut by alleged unfair competition—also preclude them workspaces
from the areas of highest footfall and should be removed.
Any relocations should be carried out only after substantive feel are appropriate and helpful can help to offset municipal
participatory discussions and negotiations with those costs. These practical guidelines conform to the principles
affected, as explained below. of good practice for inclusive local economic development
within integrated urban planning developed by UN-Habitat.29
Underlying such restrictions are outdated beliefs that In addition to these measures, it is prudent for governments
informality is somehow inherently bad, inappropriate, to accelerate the implementation of ILO recommendation
parasitic or at odds with modernity. Such views are 204 towards formalization of the informal economy to tackle
characterized by the pessimistic scenario of urban futures the mounting decent work deficits and structural constraints
discussed in Chapter 1. In practice, the informal sector is that confront informal sector workers.30
very diverse, with most actors being poor, often unskilled
or only semi-skilled, and trying to earn a livelihood with This integration should be done in the spirit of social dialogue
whatever means they have in a situation of widespread to create a win-win situation so that the economic fortunes
309
and productivity of the informal economy can be boosted and

The municipal green bond concept has proven
their contribution to thriving urban economies enhanced. The
increasingly popular in diverse contexts where
transition to formalization should be backed by a combination
local governments have the financial autonomy,
of different incentives which might include increasing access
legal power and creditworthiness
to social security for business owners and their workers and to
business services and public procurement for formalized micro
and small enterprises. These policy measures should be locally The municipal green bond concept has proven increasingly
contextualized and based on the prevailing social, economic popular in diverse contexts where local governments have
and political circumstances in each country. Moreover, such the financial autonomy, legal power and creditworthiness
a transformative urban economic policy agenda requires to issue bonds, and the ability to avoid unaffordable debt
significant political will on the part of elected officials at the overhangs. Local governments attracted to such opportunities
national, subnational and local levels. should examine their legal ability to do so and, if necessary,
seek legislative changes to provide them with the necessary
powers or at least basis for offering legal surety as a key
Building resilience and productive urban prerequisite for bond raising. In order to increase funding
futures is not an automatic process; it requires available to cities more generally and systematically, clear
innovative, resilient and sustainable financing arguments for a green cities development bank have been
instruments articulated but, to date, have not been acted upon.33
10.2.4. Leveraging new fiscal sustainability Cities and subnational governments should create enabling
frameworks environments for effective and sustainable public-private
At the urban level, local governments generally face partnerships (PPPs) to finance ambitious urban infrastructure
increasingly severe financial constraints (Chapter 4). Building projects, particularly in contexts where public resources are
resilience and productive urban futures is not an automatic limited. PPPs are becoming a popular mechanism to fund
process; it requires innovative, resilient and sustainable large scale infrastructure investments as these are critical
financing instruments beyond the traditional fiscal tools for building resilient urban futures. As noted in World Cities
at the disposal of cities and national governments. The Report 2020, and reinforced in the current Report, cities
pandemic has reinforced the need for cities to diversify their and national governments cannot do this alone; there is the
revenue portfolios outside traditional property taxes and need to unlock private sector financing through the creation
other related municipal rates and charges. Green municipal of incentive schemes that attract the participation of private
bonds represent a growing tool for leveraging the scale of sector players in urban programmes. Additionally, as the
capital required for major new green and circular investment World Cities Report 2020 points out, the value of sustainable
schemes to promote sustainability and resilience. Examples urbanization cannot be achieved without improving municipal
range from specific green-blue infrastructure to financing financial mechanisms.34 Yet, improved municipal finance alone
of neighbourhood efficiency and resilience programmes will not provide an adequate basis for achieving economic
like retrofitting and district heating or combined heat and resilience. Diverse innovative fiscal incentive schemes are
power. Gothenburg, Sweden’s second city and industrial being developed and implemented to promote these changes
hub, was the first to launch a municipal green bond in 2013 and to promote climate and disaster risk resilience.
and now has a robust framework for such instruments.31 In
April 2021, Ghaziabad became the first Indian city to issue a These schemes can operate at different scales. At the
successful municipal green bond to fund a water treatment household and firm level, local governments should provide
plant to turn wastewater into drinking quality and to extend municipal grants for retrofitting homes with insulation and
the piped water network. Kanpur, Agra and Varanasi, also in installation of renewable energy sources (such as rooftop
India, intend to follow Ghaziabad’s example and issue such solar panels).35 Water and sewerage companies, can offer
bonds as well.32 In these contexts, enhancing infrastructural service discounts for properties with rainwater harvesting
reach and reliability represent important programmes to facilities and permeable surfaces to encourage rainwater
meeting basic needs securely and achieving the relevant infiltration, as available in the UK. Poor households and
SDGs as contributions to overall urban sustainability and communities, including those in informal settlements, can
resilience. access a growing range of individual or neighbourhood/
community-level micro-loans or grants to develop enterprises
310
and undertake neighbourhood risk reduction activities that Cities should prioritize extending basic infrastructure and
also enhance public health as proactive interventions.36 services to underserved communities as this could have
citywide transformative impacts. For instance, current
10.2.5. Infrastructure investments for sustainable projections reveal that that a dollar invested in developing
and resilient urban futures water and sanitation infrastructure generates between
For urban areas to achieve the optimistic scenario, investing US$4 and $34 in benefits by improving health outcomes,
in key urban infrastructure must be a prerequisite for saving times, and boosting urban productivity.37 If such
building sustainable and resilient urban futures. The current incremental gains are realized the current negative trends
infrastructure investment gaps are a huge impediment for could be reversed and action will be galvanized towards
building thriving and productive cities in both developed and building inclusive, thriving, resilient and productive urban
developing regions. For example, if cities and subnational futures in sync with SDGs and the New Urban Agenda.
governments prioritize investments in public transport If national and local governments fail to urgently tackle
systems this could generate more economic benefits, the current underinvestment in infrastructure, this could
particularly for the poor urban residents whose access to undermine urban economic resilience and negatively affect
jobs is affected by socio-spatial segregation. the productivity of cities.
Informal settlements, Younde, Cameroon © Kirsten Milhahn/UN-Habitat
311
10.3. Social Resilience 10.3.2. Context-specific social protection

schemes
As explained in Chapter 3, the multidimensional nature The most successful strategies to create social resilience
of poverty and inequality necessitates comprehensive are likely to combine three elements: neighbourhood-scale
cross-sectoral approaches. These represent urgent short- interventions to improve physical infrastructure and basic
to medium-term interventions as essential prerequisites services; necessary upgrades to sub-standard dwellings; and
for increasing ambition towards urban transformations to responsive social protection schemes tailored to household
sustainability and resilience. requirements. The current COVID-19 pandemic provides an
opportunity for global leaders to rethink transformative urban
10.3.1. People-centred approaches to enhance policies and programmes that can radically tackle poverty
inclusiveness and reduce poverty and inequalities in all its forms and dimensions. The 2021
The COVID-19 pandemic has underlined the interdependence UN-Habitat report Cities and Pandemics: Towards a More
between individual and public health, with the highly unequal Just, Green and Healthy Future advocates for a “new social
epidemiological patterns of morbidity and mortality reflecting contract” in the form of universal basic income, universal
underlying urban socio-spatial inequalities (Chapter 7). In health coverage and universal housing and basic services.
essence, the built environment has a clear impact on health This new social contract challenges cities and subnational
outcomes. Poorer people, who are more likely to have weaker governments to re-imagine what public and social goods they
nutritional and health status, tend to live disproportionately should deliver and under what conditions. At the same time,
in housing and neighbourhoods that have poor or inadequate the pandemic has exposed the gaps in social protection,
infrastructure, public open space, and other amenities and given the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 containment
services. Such vulnerabilities also have age, gender and measures on some of the most vulnerable groups in cities.
other intersectional dimensions. Hence, context-specific
interventions are required to safeguard vulnerable and Urban-sensitive social protection schemes are potentially,
marginalized urban groups (Chapter 4). The importance of a powerful tool to redistribute wealth, address income
extended family structures, wider social cohesion, and the inequalities and tackle multiple vulnerabilities that affect
extent of social and cultural capital can also be crucial factors the most marginalized groups (Chapter 1). Some social
in mitigating such effects.38 protection schemes, like universal basic income schemes
and affordable health insurance, are normally national
National and urban governments have responded in diverse government responsibilities, although some devolved
ways; those acting most effectively at first have often been federal or similar systems provide health insurance at the
those with recent experience of epidemics like SARS and regional level. Cities and subnational governments should
various strains of bird influenza. Previous experience meant design tailored social protection interventions for informal
that they had early warning and rapid response capacity as workers. Extending social protection to informal sector
well as important aspects of resilience. In terms of post- workers is critical for inclusive development and resilient
COVID-19 recovery, inclusive and integrated policies are urban futures. Governments at all levels should design
required that both tackle the immediate needs and symptoms, policies and programmes to support the formalization of
and the deeper underlying bases of poverty, inequality and informal businesses and enterprises with access to social
inadequate infrastructure and services in a way that balances protection; extending statutory coverage to previously
socioeconomic rights to achieve social justice.39 uncovered workers; adapting benefits, contributions, and
administrative procedures to reflect the needs of informal
As we move into the future, cities, subnational governments workers; and subsidizing contributions for those with very
and other urban actors should urgently prioritize bottom-up low incomes. Doing so will ensure livelihood and income
approaches when designing urban resilience interventions security, especially when faced with economic disruptions
and in key urban programming. At-risk communities must and other external shocks and stresses.
be placed at the centre of decisions that impact their lives
so that new opportunities for tackling urban poverty and
inequalities can be unlocked. The failure to prioritize at-risk Cities, subnational governments and other
urban communities means that the 2030 agenda of leaving urban actors should urgently prioritize bottom-
no one behind will not materialize. up approaches when designing urban resilience
interventions and in key urban programming
312
Food vendors at a slum in Bangladesh, Dhaka © Kirsten Milhahn/UN-Habitat
In designing social protection interventions for informal sector 10.3.3. Fostering social change and improving social
workers, cities and subnational governments should consider well-being
gender-related risks since women and other vulnerable social Integrated urban planning should be an instrument for
groups bear the brunt of economic hardships and vulnerabilities promoting social and spatial integration and inclusion,
associated with informal work. Moreover, resilient, and especially by improving access to all areas within the city and
equitable urban futures could be realized if governments its territory. Greater connectivity means that all inhabitants,
ensure access to subsidized basic services for the most including the poor, marginalized, displaced and migrants
vulnerable urban households and ensure access to adequate and can benefit from the socioeconomic opportunities, services,
public spaces and other facilities in a city, and contribute
to its social and cultural life. Integrated urban planning also
Extending social protection protects and values all elements of cultural heritage, not
to informal sector workers just in a backward-looking sense but, crucially, in terms of
is critical for inclusive how contemporary cultures, identities and heritages can
development and resilient play valuable roles in promoting locally appropriate urban
urban futures sustainability and resilience.40
affordable housing for all. Cities and subnational governments Neighbourhood or larger scale municipal interventions
should formulate tailored strategies that respond to different to foster behavioural change, reduce vulnerability and
form of vulnerabilities. Social protection interventions should promote well-being can include brownfield redevelopments
be nuanced and wide-ranging to ensure the different risks and and design of mixed housing areas in new developments
vulnerabilities associated with gender, age, ethnicity, migratory to avoid social and economic segregation that reinforce
status, and other characteristics are effectively identified and disadvantage and undermine resilience of the most
tackled in urban welfare programming. vulnerable social groups. Beyond basic infrastructure
313
and services, access to appropriate green space is also an uses or to increase green and blue space are often highly
important element of well-being.41 controversial and can be hotly contested by different
stakeholders, particularly when other land uses might be
Although not cited explicitly as an objective of integrated regarded as having higher values or greater importance,
urban planning guidelines, social and cultural resilience is not least for livelihoods and homebuilding by and for the
indeed an outcome of their appropriate implementation by poor. Spatial, social, economic and environmental justice
strengthening geographical proximity between residential, issues must therefore be taken fully into account as part of
livelihood and social activities. Proximity in line with the integrated transformative urban planning.46
principles of the 15- or 20-minute city enhances residents’
sense of belonging to a neighbourhood or district, improves This section highlights two areas of intervention shown
quality of life and reduces economically-based residential by increasing volumes of recent research to be important
segregation across metropolitan areas. These benefits also in promoting environmental resilience as part of integrated
constitute a key element of the social equity and justice strategies, namely investing in green-blue infrastructure, and
dimension of urban sustainability and resilience.42 in sustainable renewable and cleaner energy.
10.4.1 Investing in green-blue infrastructure

10.4. Environmental Resilience The concept of green infrastructure, used to denote the
use, expansion and conservation of parks, riverbanks and
Notwithstanding the assertion by some critics that other wetlands and green open spaces within urban areas
urban sustainability and resilience are often used almost on account of their ecosystem services, has been widened
synonymously, as discussed earlier, the following quote from to green-blue (or blue-green) infrastructure (GBI) in
UN-Habitat is explicit that the attributes of environmental recognition of the intimate interrelationships between land-
sustainability are likely to facilitate integration and resilience: based and aquatic biodiversity. Treating both green and blue
“Environmentally sustainable cities are likely to be more natural systems as essential elements of environmentally-
productive, competitive, innovative and prosperous. These friendly infrastructure respects the fact that vegetation and
cities are able to draw a healthy balance between economic waterways often weave integrated networks through an
growth and the environment, in the process facilitating urban area. This lens facilitates planning and sustainable
integrated development and resilience.”43 utilization, as well as the enhancement of biodiversity.
One fundamental and inescapable characteristic of cities and Conversely, a lack of coherent planning and clear, transparent
urban systems is their complexity, especially in terms of the governance (including over land) leads to fragmented
human environment and the relationships and interactions outcomes and loss of green spaces—up to 80 per cent in the
that underpin them. While cities are human artefacts, their case of Kumasi, Ghana, from 1991 to 2019.47 The rapidity of
health, sustainability and resilience are critically dependent changes in green space coverage and composition—which are
on these relationships. Indeed, they may be conceived as effective proxies for biodiversity and environmental value—
complex social-ecological-technical systems.44 Accordingly, has been widely documented in different contexts, including
much attention now focuses on fostering nature-based through use of a comprehensive assessment methodology
solutions and ecosystem services as essential to reducing using remote sensing and GIS in Chinese cities.48 With
urban heat island effect, controlling pests, reducing rainfall appropriate interventions as part of integrated planning, this
run-off and erosion, increasing food production, and making coverage and quality can increase, as illustrated by detailed
cities more liveable and just for all inhabitants.45 studies of drivers and processes—including the political
dimensions involved—in Shanghai and the Australian cities
As research into the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic has of Canberra, Melbourne and Sydney.49
recently shown, green and public open space is inequitably
distributed across the urban fabric, with the poorest, most With the frame widened to GBI, the positive effect can be
densely populated areas generally least well served and further amplified, especially if participatory and co-productive
having access to far less land per person. The logic of urban processes are used to convince water users of the benefits in
greening and environmental improvement, particularly to terms of improved water and riparian quality.50 Until recently,
enhance environmental justice and equity, might therefore research and policy on GBI was concentrated in North
seem indisputable. However, initiatives to restrict land America, Europe and Australasia, but has become almost
314
universal since its importance for climate change mitigation, A set of globally applicable core principles for GBI has
adaptation and resilience has become widely appreciated. been distilled by combining conceptual issues with lessons
Pertinent well-documented case studies include the Ebro Delta from the available case study literature. GBI should be
and Empordà in Spain, New York’s Staten Island Bluebelt, multifunctional; needs to be connected (as opposed to
Seattle’s Thornton Creek Water Quality Channel, the Serra do comprising isolated pockets); integrate green, blue and grey
Mar project in Baixada Santista Metropolitan Region (Brazil), elements; and have multiple scales; while it is developed
ecosystem-based adaptation in Cape Town and Singapore, the through strategic, inter- and transdisciplinary processes
Gazelle Valley Park Conservation Programme in Jerusalem, that are socially inclusive and reflexive.55 These features are
and Transforming for Life in Medellín.51 A recent review explicit so that they can serve to integrate GBI spatially and
has found some commonalities—such as a persistent focus in governance terms with other sectoral resilience agendas
on individual categories of green space—but also national on poverty, inequality and justice.
and regional differences in terms of the extent, uses and
development approaches towards such infrastructure across 10.4.2. Sustainable, renewable and cleaner energy
Latin America, Africa and Asia.52 As energy quite literally drives or enables all facets of human
settlements, having equitable access to adequate clean and
Governance arrangements for GBI are evolving with sustainable energy is fundamental to achieving overall urban
international assistance through bilateral and multilateral sustainability and resilience. What makes energy clean and
initiatives. Global city networks are building awareness and sustainable comprises two closely related dimensions, namely
enhancing local capacity to utilize effectively the tools afforded the fuel source of the energy and the nature of the supply
by international treaties and conventions on biodiversity infrastructure in relation to actual and suppressed demand.
protection and enhancement. In fact, city collaborations and Debates over the unsustainability of finite, non-renewable
city networks involving the environment have grown rapidly and polluting fossil fuels use are well known, and the nature
and constitute the largest share of such networks globally.53 of alternatives will be discussed below, but urban planning
In addition to global networks such as C40 Cities and the for an optimistic future scenario must take account of recent
Global Resilient Cities Network, smaller and regional research developments in renewable energy generation that enable
and learning networks have proved valuable (Box 10.2). different and more resilient supply infrastructures. Already
Box 10.2: ICLEI’s Urban Natural Assets for Africa Programme (UNA)
ICLEI Africa’s Urban Natural Assets for Africa Programme ran from 2014–2020 as an excellent example of a regional GBI learning
network across Addis Ababa, Cape Town, Dar es Salaam, Lilongwe, Kampala, Kisumu, Entebbe (Uganda), and Nacala and Quelimane
(Mozambique). This network shared understanding and experience about rivers, coasts and overall resilience, augmented by access to
current international thinking and practice.
The fundamental objective was to promote “human well-being and climate resilience by integrating nature-based solutions into
land-use planning and decision-making processes.” It operated through very reflective and adaptive learning and knowledge
exchange mechanisms that enabled the tailoring of experience elsewhere and principles of good practice to local contexts through
co-production processes. In turn, the participating cities shared their practices and lessons, while ICLEI helped disseminate these
practices regionally and globally, hence enabling bidirectional cross-scale knowledge sharing.
Key findings included that identification of appropriate decision-making entry points was inadequate. Instead, cities needed to
embark on continual learning, knowledge production and critical reflection as part of a fundamental reorientation of planning
processes away from expert knowledge towards co-design and co-creation. Innovative learning and exchange formats, including
games and interactive exercises, proved important devices for achieving this goal by helping to level the power dynamics and other
differences among participants. For instance, the network brought land-use planners and environmental officers in Lilongwe City
Council in Malawi together across departmental silos to share perspectives and explore their conflicting disciplinary and professional
rationalities around these issues.54
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in 2009, the UN-Habitat report Planning Sustainable Cities substantial increases in the voluntary Nationally Determined
identified the potential in this regard of decentralized systems: Contributions to emissions reductions. However, some large
emitters and major fossil fuel producers resisted, and the sum
Decentralized energy production systems offer a number of total of Nationally Determined Contributions announced will
benefits, including energy savings, given the ability to better not reduce temperature increases over pre-industrial levels
control power production, lessen vulnerability and achieve below 2.4–2.7°C, a considerable and damaging amount way
greater resilience in the face of natural and human-made disaster short of the 1.5°C Paris target.
(including terrorist attacks). Clever integration of these small
systems within a grid can be achieved with new technology Most major cities are taking leading roles in seeking to meet
control systems that balance the whole system as demand and the Paris target through ambitious emissions reduction
supply fluctuates. A number of such small-scale energy systems targets, increasingly as part of integrated strategies embracing
are being developed to make cities more resilient in the future.56 mitigation and adaptation as transformative commitments to
sustainability and resilience. City networks, including UCLG,
ICLEI, C40 and the Global Resilient Cities Network, are
Most major cities are taking playing leading roles in generating collective will and sharing
leading roles in seeking good practices, as is the biennial One Planet City Challenge
to meet the Paris target run by WWF Sweden on behalf of WWF International.59 Cities
through ambitious emissions not already engaged in global networks of local governments
reduction targets for climate action should no longer sit on the sidelines if they
wish for their city to achieve the optimistic scenario for urban
Over the 14 years since that was written, progress has futures, as these networks support and encourage individual
been remarkable, driven by growing urgency, the increasing mayors and top officials, who can make a real difference
obsolescence of older fossil fuel power stations, rapidly individually in their respective cities’ agendas in bridging the
growing demand for electricity through population growth, gap between vision and action.60
rising incomes, and the vast expansion of electronic
equipment and now also electric vehicles. Technical progress In urban contexts, the importance of strategic assessments of
and the plummeting cost of photovoltaic (solar) panels, wind energy systems and greenhouse gas inventories as the basis
turbines of different scales, and early commercial tidal energy for concerted action is now well established.61 A series of
installations are all playing important roles in the rapid and recent studies of macro-metropolitan São Paulo also identifies
impressive increases in renewable energy capacity around the many political constraints and contradictions impeding
the world, even in countries that appear to favour fossil fuel successful energy transitions, and what further potential
industries or minimize the climate change threat. Given exists.62 Such issues exist almost universally, not least in terms
obsolescence and capacity constraints facing conventional of vested interests contesting the basis or rate of transition
national or regional energy grids and the scale of investment to sustainable and renewable energy, although the changing
required to address these, urban distributed and decentralized economics of renewables is starting to prove a game changer.
energy systems for climate-resilient, post-COVID recovery are
vital elements of resilient urban futures.57 Moreover, the new opportunities presented by the surge
in renewables are particularly important as old power
Globally, the International Energy Agency has now charted plants are retired and efforts to expand affordable access
a clear pathway towards net zero by 2050, demonstrating to electricity among the poor and in underserved localities
the importance of a portfolio of energy sources and supplies, increase. Combinations of off-grid, local mini-grid and
underpinned by a rapid transition out of fossil fuels to the on-grid solutions are now possible, though sometimes
range of renewables and appropriate financing funds to assist limited by regulations. Scalability is also very important, so
developing countries and promote energy justice at different that individual households, community organizations and
scales.58 These issues are also addressed substantially in firms in many countries can invest affordably to generate
Chapter 5. By contrast, commitments at COP26, including some or all of their own electricity. Depending on the precise
the agreement to curtail methane emissions and a doubling technology, this can either be stored for use at night or sold
of financial assistance, provide a first but insufficient step to the grid. Donor agencies, NGOs and community-based
in this direction. Most low- and middle-income countries, organizations are also funding innovative schemes to install
along with some high-income countries, strongly favour power in informal and low-income settlements that are not
316
connected to the wider urban grid. As mentioned above, 10.4.3 Raise awareness of different local urban
such investments are important because of their economic risks and identification of feasible disaster
and social dimensions, in terms of employment creation and prevention and preparedness
impact on reducing poverty, inequality and ill-health. While Sustained research on chronic hazards and longer-term
some schemes are grant-based, others require affordable climate change risks facing different groups of residents
repayments over a stipulated period, with repaid funds and localities within urban areas have informed urban
sometimes being recycled into new loans on the principles risk profiles. Many local governments have undertaken
of a rotating credit scheme. comprehensive vulnerability assessments and established
disaster risk reduction and climate change mitigation and
This potential to fill gaps in grid coverage and provide adaptation strategies, including early warning systems for
affordable renewable energy constitutes a key element of floods, landslips and droughts. Awareness and preparedness
poverty reduction and health improvement as part of an raising exercises appropriate to the particular contexts are
integrated urban sustainability strategy. These types of energy important, so that residents know where to obtain reliable
also avoid the safety and health risks, as well as emissions, and up-to-date information and how to respond to the various
associated with use of kerosene, paraffin, candles and categories of emergency.
firewood in extremely low-income households. In situations
where electricity grid supply is unstable or unreliable, having In Shimla, Himachal Pradesh, India, for instance, the local
off-grid or local mini-grid supplies may be more reliable authority, with assistance from ICLEI and 100 Resilient Cities,
and sustainable, as well as resilient. Citywide rooftop solar has formulated comprehensive landslide and earthquake
schemes, such as in Palmas, Brazil, are demonstrating the disaster and resilience strategies, with public engagement. In
scalability of renewable energy and various co-benefits.63 Buenos Aires; Malmö, Sweden; and Sheffield, UK, attention has
Access to alternative sources and supplies also provides the
redundancy that is an important component of resilience. As
older solar panels come to the end of their working lives or Many local governments have
need repair, issues around the right to repair—which could undertaken comprehensive vulnerability
provide many new semi-skilled employment opportunities— assessments and established disaster
and the growth of a new form of e-waste also need to be risk reduction and climate change
considered.64 mitigation and adaptation strategies
The aftermath of cyclne Iday, Beira City, Mozambique © Victor Espadas Gonzalez/Shutterstock
317
focused principally on flood risk, with imaginative awareness and remove a major source of vulnerability among the most
raising strategies and mitigation strategies including a shift marginalized groups is for local governments to cease the
from traditional hard engineering solutions towards nature- still widespread use of demolition or eviction (Chapter 3).
based solutions and ecosystem services such as restoring Rather than literally being planned out of urban areas, such
and expanding riverine vegetation and floodplains, as well as areas should be planned into towns and cities through the
enhancing run-off retention and water infiltration of the soil.65 inclusive and equity-promoting policies advocated here.
Particular issues often arise in respect of informal settlements
and their inhabitants, where legitimate community-based A wealth of experience has been built up through
organizations play important roles in mapping, data collection, community-based initiatives worldwide, using diverse
negotiations and providing mutual assistance. approaches but generally through shared labour and self-
help processes, childcare and education enterprises,
10.4.4 Building resilience in slums and informal rotating credit and collective savings schemes and the like.
settlements During high-risk periods, wardens or lookouts can watch for
A key requirement for effective, integrated citywide planning approaching floods, impending landslips, storms, firestorms
and resilience building—which is discussed more broadly and other hazards to provide early warning to residents.
below—is that it should promote socio-spatial and economic Many of these modest initiatives—sometimes supported
equity. This means explicitly including areas and social by external NGOs—provide elements of resilience that can
groups facing particular vulnerabilities and high risks, most be enhanced and integrated with wider multisectoral urban
of whom are relatively and often absolutely marginalized and programmes if trust and collaborative relations with officials
impoverished, living in informal housing and surviving through and the planning system can be developed (Chapter 8). This
informal economic activities (Chapter 3). Informality exists will take time and goodwill on all sides, which underlines
universally but in many developing countries it characterizes the value of multistakeholder engagement, making use of
substantial segments of the built-up area and population.66 skilled external facilitators and demonstrating to residents
These planning processes must be seen as legitimate among that their knowledge and experiences are valued alongside
slum and informal settlement dwellers, many of whom are those of other, more powerful groups and professional
only too aware of the chronic daily risks and hazards of their planners. Many participatory and co-design, co-creation and
lived experience but also lack the resources to resolve them co-production techniques have been developed in diverse
independently. A vital step to promote such policy legitimacy urban contexts worldwide to help foster such processes.67
Participatory slum upgrading session © UN-Habitat
318
The Know Your City programme of the Federation of Shack sense of ownership, while reducing alienation or dependence.
and Slumdwellers International (SDI), in collaboration The quality and adequacy of the schemes may vary but local
with United Cities and Local Governments of Africa, is ownership might make them more durable and encourage
well-established and engages residents as citizen scientists maintenance beyond what conventional local government
to map and collect data on their neighbourhoods as the interventions generally achieve. Ultimately, it is important that
basis for negotiations and collaborations to provide and these are not seen as purely filling gaps or as substitutes for
upgrade services and infrastructure and improve disaster official action, but that they become integrated with the latter
risk reduction capacity and resilience (Chapter 6).68 Ideally, as part of comprehensive urban planning and action to build
individual neighbourhood initiatives should be “joined holistic, multistakeholder and cross-sectoral urban resilience,
up” so that drainage and stormwater improvements are as elaborated on in the next section.
accompanied by enhancements to pathways, access routes
and other infrastructure, including water supply and
sanitation, to make them more resilient to storms, floods,
fires and other locally important extreme events. Informal and formal low-
income dwellings can be made
Such initiatives have provided an important basis for rapid more resilient to heavy rain
interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic to raise and flooding through improved
awareness and improve emergency or more durable facilities roof overhangs, rainwater
for handwashing and related personal hygiene and sanitation harvesting and strengthened
measures to prevent or slow contagious spread of the footings
coronavirus in high-density areas with inadequate facilities.69
These, in turn, point to longer term interventions required
as part of upgrading and integrated planning initiatives to 10.5. Institutional Resilience
promote public health and environmental resilience in such
areas (Chapter 6). The UN-Habitat Global Report on Human Settlements 2007,
focused on the theme of human safety and security. Even then,
Informal and formal low-income dwellings can be made more the report’s scope included extreme events and disasters in
resilient to heavy rain and flooding through improved roof terms that remain both valid and important today. Specifically,
overhangs, rainwater harvesting and strengthened footings the report underlined the key message that governance
to protect the base of the walls. Resilience to heat and cold structures and processes are only as good as their weakest
can be enhanced through cost-effective ceiling insulation, component: “Disasters reveal the resilience and capacity of
perhaps accompanied by affordable and appropriate energy governments. The performance of infrastructure is a reliable
generation through solar water heaters, as demonstrated by indicator of how well public agencies are doing their jobs.
the Kuyasa scheme in Cape Town, to maximize co-benefits.70 Similarly, the performance of departments within government,
Reducing fire risk in homes constructed from flammable as well the performance of leaders, is deeply revealing of the
materials like wood, cardboard and plastic, particularly strength and character of public institutions.”71
because many inhabitants also rely on open fires, candles and
paraffin or kerosene for cooking and heating, is also crucial Put differently, this means that the sudden and severe shocks
to promoting resilience at this scale. that constitute disasters, rather than the performance of
ordinary daily functions, show how effective, efficient,
Such interventions have been documented and supported flexible and responsive governments and their capacities
through other initiatives, as well as the Asian Coalition for are. Whereas rigid, bureaucratic and unaccountable systems
Community Action, and collaborative efforts in and with usually falter when faced with substantial emergencies
informal settlement dwellers from Buenos Aires to Kisumu to because they tend to alienate rather than involve or have the
address community priorities to reduce flood risk, vulnerability, confidence of most inhabitants, more flexible, efficient, well-
water and sanitation and other sources of daily and climate organized and responsive systems often have preparedness
change vulnerability and to build resilience. These initiatives and can respond in a timely fashion. At the same time, it is
are crucially important in engaging active participation and, important to bear in mind that resilience cannot be created
in some cases, co-design and co-creation with residents and by economic resources and wealth alone. Above all, there is
other beneficiaries. This generates buy-in and community no substitute for good governance.
319
As this Report has demonstrated, knowledge and understanding government institution. Moreover, changes in political
of different natural and anthropogenic hazards, risks, control, particularly when combined with strong executive
vulnerabilities and how to build capacity to mitigate, adapt power vested in a president, regional minister or executive
and resilience has grown immeasurably over the last 15 years. mayor, can change dynamics rapidly and even reverse previous
However, even where sufficient political commitment and gains and thus undermine resilience directly or indirectly.
resourcing exist, there remain substantial implementation and This reality highlights the importance of engaging proactively
capacity gaps. A large recent international study of some 200 with the politics of climate change and resilience, including
cities revealed little evidence of just sustainability principles both sharpened contestations and innovative collaborations
yet having been implemented on the ground.72 and coalitions to exploit and develop areas of common
interest, as well as everyday politics by those outside the
The rate and scale of climate change, as well as our corridors of power, especially informal community-based
understanding of its impacts, have also increased over the institutions of the poor and marginalized.76
intervening years, with the result that the urgency and nature
of adaptive transformations now required to achieve just and Since the funding and revenue cuts, and increased demands
sustainable urban resilience are commensurately greater. on, urban local governments triggered by the 2008-9 global
This transformation can only be achieved with greater financial crisis, the ability of European cities to innovate
resolve and commitment by all government institutions, and govern economic change and social challenges has
including local government leaders. depended largely on the existence of supportive multilevel
governance.77 Another important cautionary example
10.5.1. Building stronger and nimbler multilevel is provided by the fate of climate change measures and
collaboration progress with emissions reduction and decarbonization
Climate change, pandemics, sustainability and resilience are under successive Brazilian presidents. Important gains
classic examples of “wicked problems,” a concept in planning during the first decade of the 2000s have subsequently been
and policy that refers to problems difficult or near impossible undermined and reversed through a combination of political
to solve. Given that scale of challenge, no level or tier of resistance, bypassing regulations, direct legislative change,
government—no single ministry, department or agency—can and the weakening or closure of specialist institutions.
address them alone. Indeed, all must collaborate effectively.
The necessity of this level of collaboration underpins the This experience applies equally to collaborative multilevel
entire global sustainable development agenda, particularly governance and the role of urban institutions, with climate
the SDGs and the New Urban Agenda, because of the change and resilience agendas mainstreamed across all mandates
difficulty in tackling multidimensional poverty, inequality rather than being the preserve of specialist departments or
and vulnerability.73 institutions. One important strategy for tackling policy volatility
across local electoral cycles and reducing the vulnerability of
Establishment and operation of effective and efficient local government programmes to changes in national or regional
multilevel governance requires clear divisions of labour, policy is to seek cross-party agreement on the importance of
powers, responsibilities and resources among national urban sustainability and resilience so that measures implemented
and subnational government entities.74 It also requires during one cycle are consolidated and built upon in subsequent
multistakeholder collaboration among government cycles rather than reversed. This type of institutionalization
institutions, private firms, civil society and other NGOs, higher of resilience policy has been done successfully in countries
education institutions and the like. Collaborative governance with proportional representation electoral systems where
also builds confidence and trusting relationships. Indeed, governance usually takes place through coalitions, particularly
early optimism on this score regarding urban governance in in Scandinavia, but such broad agreements can be achieved
the few years after the COP15 summit in Copenhagen was even under other systems if the respective leaderships accept
subsequently replaced by greater pragmatism.75 the importance of doing so.
Effective multilevel governance may be difficult to achieve,

particularly in situations where cross-scale relations are Effective multilevel governance may be difficult
historically fraught or complicated by authoritarianism, lack to achieve, particularly in situations where
of transparency and/or political rivalries when different cross-scale relations are historically fraught or
parties or interest groups control the respective levels of complicated by authoritarianism
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10.5.2. Well-funded and resourced local

Many historically well-
governments
funded local governments
Local governments, especially in urban areas, are on the
in OECD countries have
frontline of addressing climate change and COVID-19 and
suffered successive financial
having to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience.
cuts since the financial crisis
Yet they frequently suffer from longstanding shortages of
personnel, resources and implementational capacity relative
to their legal mandates and responsibilities, let alone to to raise revenue locally from property, vehicle and/or local
address the substantial and substantive transformational income or sales taxes, service provision, and sale of utilities
changes now required. The most common challenges are a such as water and electricity. The higher the proportion
lack of local revenue raising ability and heavy dependence on of total revenue that can be raised locally, the greater the
central and/or regional governments for disbursements, and level of de facto autonomy a local government will have, the
additional tasks and roles being assigned to local government better it will be able to develop and implement coherent
without appropriate funding—sometimes referred to as strategies, and the more responsive it can be to local
unfunded mandates.78 This may reflect inadequate central priorities and hence accountable to residents. Therefore,
government revenues or political centralism that means these solutions should be promoted; some can be addressed
that allocated resources are not transferred to lower tiers of by local governments alone, but most will require multilevel
government. governance negotiations since they affect divisions of labour
and resources among them.
The phenomenon of unfunded mandates has been
widespread during the COVID-19 pandemic, when local 10.5.3. The role of new technologies in steering
governments have been called upon to intervene in diverse urban resilience
ways. The weakened fiscal capacity of cities and subnational Technologies continue to evolve very rapidly, creating new
governments, which in turn affects their capacity to tackle potentials to accelerate urban change and transformations but
persistent and emerging urban challenges is indicative of the also new challenges about their appropriateness to diverse
disastrous scenario of urban futures described in Chapter contexts and their wider impact on equity, justice and well-
1. Even many historically well-funded local governments in being (Chapter 9). This is the essence of the social dimension
OECD countries have suffered successive financial cuts since in socio-technical approaches and the understanding of cities
the financial crisis (Chapter 4); the larger Nordic cities are as socio-technical-environmental systems.79
notable exceptions.
The rapidity of technological evolution can make it difficult to
Fundamental to overcoming this situation are two governance judge appropriateness in the short term, as cost, availability
requirements. The first is to clarify an appropriate balance of and accessibility can change over time. Two good examples are
complementary roles with respect to climate change, disaster solar panels and mobile phones. Initially they were expensive
risk reduction and resilience building across national, regional as well as required supporting infrastructure, installation and
and local governments. The second is to reach an equitable maintenance capacity that rendered them accessible mainly
resolution of the mismatches between the powers, roles and to the elite and middle classes in large cities. However,
responsibilities of urban local governments on the one hand, dissemination and technological refinement have been rapid,
and their resourcing on the other. This may be very difficult even in low-income countries, with the result that both are
to achieve in strongly centralized and authoritarian systems. now widely available and accessible at affordable cost, so
If internal democratic pressure is inadequate, international that both now make important contributions to resilience
agencies or city networks might be able to help facilitate at individual, household, neighbourhood and hence urban
dialogue and some form of national debate or consultative scales. (Solar panels were discussed earlier.) Mobile phones
mechanism to assist national governments to find the means connect traders to customers, provide access to instant
to address and meet international conventions or agendas to market information from different locations, facilitate
which they have signed up. maintenance of social contacts among family and friendship
networks, enable money transfers cheaply at a distance,
The most appropriate solution will also differ according to enhance personal safety, assist female entrepreneurs to
local circumstances, such as existing institutional capacity of overcome gender barriers and can be a source of early
local governments of particular categories and their ability warning of impending extreme events and disasters.
321
Related developments in digital technologies also facilitate many elements of unsustainability and exclusion, particularly
citizen science and community mapping as part of of the urban majority and poorer developing countries.
participatory and co-productive neighbourhood upgrading This has prompted efforts to embrace open data and open-
and planning negotiations, which is consistent with the source technologies as part of community involvement as
idea of civil technology (Chapter 9).80 Networked data mentioned above. Social aspects of smart city living are also
sensors and closed-circuit television cameras measuring now receiving more attention, with Tampere in Finland, for
air quality, traffic and pedestrian flows and many other example, adopting a more citizen-focused phase after their
elements of urban metabolism, as well as antisocial initially strong technological emphasis.81
behaviour and crime, are increasingly integral to
environmental monitoring and mobility management to Carbon capture and storage represents another controversial
cut airborne pollution, congestion and ultimately promote potential example, where, as a result of greater urgency
urban sustainability and resilience. and technological progress, perceptions are shifting from
it being unrealistically expensive and large-scale to having
However, as noted in Chapter 9, the equity and justice possibilities at different scales. However, this could thus
dimensions to such technological deployments are often become a mechanism for extending or perpetuating business
overlooked. Who benefits and who suffers when constraints as usual approaches based heavily on fossil fuel combustion
and monitoring are introduced? There are costs and benefits rather than accelerating transitions to renewable energy.
of, for example, traffic detours through neighbouring streets In this context, the importance of transforming private-
when pedestrianization schemes are introduced or policing sector business models to align with urban sustainability
abetted by technological surveillance. Similar issues surround requires a change in underlying parameters of added value
the enthusiasm for smart cities, which are often held up as and how private costs and benefits are calculated relative to
the future of urban sustainability but which, to date, are externalized social costs and benefits.82
largely high-tech and high cost in ways that encapsulate
Solar Panela at a parking lot © KIM JIHYUN/Shutterstock
322
10.5.4 Integrated urban planning as the foundation

of resilient urban futures Holistic urban resilience requires that proactive
Integrated urban planning is an essential component and responses to climate change, pandemics and
prerequisite for resilient urban futures. Sometimes called disaster risk are mainstreamed into the annual
“joined-up planning,” it requires bringing together the various and multiyear workplans and design standards
sections or departments of a local government to discuss and
negotiate their respective priorities, proposals, plans and specific department. In turn, this requires effective forward-
associated budgetary needs into an overall framework that looking design and planning frameworks that factor in local
also includes a spatial or territorial dimension so that the forecasts of future climatic, environmental and public health
entire urban area can be addressed coherently and the whole conditions so that infrastructure, buildings and services are
becomes more than the sum of the respective sectoral and built or retrofitted to appropriate standards to withstand
best estimates of conditions that will prevail over the coming
decades. The New Urban Agenda provides appropriate
parameters and guidelines for this.86
Integrated urban planning is
an essential component and
Urgent direct attention is required to change the form and
prerequisite for resilient urban
function of existing urban areas to promote comprehensive
futures
sustainability and resilience (Chapter 5), just as new
urban construction needs to accord with the latest design
locality-specific parts.83 Apart from the missed opportunity principles, construction techniques and sustainable materials
of such added value, failure to integrate at the city or in any given context to avoid locking in unsustainability for
city regional scale risks contradictions and gaps between decades to come. This is essential to integrate the economic,
various locality and sectoral plans, and may even increase environmental, social and institutional dimensions of
vulnerability. A city region embraces the functional urban resilience within the urban fabric.
area, which is larger than the urban built-up area. This is
more useful in terms of resource flows and sustainability, as One key element of this is the imperative to rethink urban
well as transport and mobility planning, but adds complexity land-use and transport systems and requirements in order
as such regions include peri-urban and some rural areas.84 to reorganize large, mainly single-use and mobility-based
urban areas into more nucleated, 15- or 20-minute cities or
In simple terms, this helps to avoid a situation where communities (Chapter 6).87 They embody the step changes
individual departments prioritize development or needed to match the scale of our looming challenges but
rehabilitation work in different localities or in the have yet to be retrofitted or tested in practice outside a few
same locality at different times. Such situations lead to recent model smart city neighbourhoods that are not likely
inefficiency, greater disruption and cost, and suboptimal to be widely replicable. Ironically, perhaps, there will be
outcomes. Instead, effective coordination means that the greater potential to upgrade and modernize infrastructure
various elements of infrastructure, buildings or services are and facilities without large-scale redesign and reconstruction
designed, delivered or upgraded together. This approach of the built environment in older, central areas of cities and
maximizes complementarities and efficiency. The number of towns in some low- and lower-middle-income countries
cities undertaking such exercises is increasing, partly through where multifunctional land uses have survived from the
the catalytic role of international membership organizations, colonial era. In some high-income countries, inner-city
though Cape Town has been working on disaster risk neighbourhoods often retain mixed land uses and have
reduction and climate change mitigation and adaptation at integrated infrastructure like district heating and integrated
the city scale for over a decade, gaining invaluable experience transport systems, enabling them to function both as 15- or
that bears out the arguments being made here.85 20-minute districts and as integral parts of the larger city.
Holistic urban resilience requires that proactive responses A crucial example of the kind of reorientations of thinking
to climate change, pandemics and disaster risk are and urban design required to make such step changes
mainstreamed into the annual and multiyear workplans and in practice is provided by recent research into the
design standards of all departments, and not undertaken relationships between residential densities and construction
as an extra bolt-on to other work or concentrated in one materials. The longstanding conventional wisdom has
323
Neighbourhood profile data validation in Old Saida, a vulnerable neighbourhood in South Governorate, Lebanon © UN-Habitat
been that maximum urban efficiency in terms of land use, and creating more walkable communities are critical elements
infrastructure and service delivery is provided by increasing of the sustainable city, investing in viable, accessible transit
residential density through fuller ground coverage and systems is the most important component for them to become
especially more extensive vertical development—high-rise, resilient to waning oil sources and to minimize the contribution
high-density development. This perception, however, has of urban areas to climate change.”90 While there has been
been based largely on the operational costs and efficiency undoubted progress in many towns and cities, including on
of buildings after construction. When the full life cycle of renewable energy and decarbonization, the urgency is now
buildings is considered, including construction materials, even greater. Modest, incremental changes are no longer
actual construction processes88 and subsequent operation, adequate; instead, more ambitious and comprehensive
the picture changes considerably. Instead, high-density, transformative adaptations— sometimes referred to as adaptive
low-rise urban designs are optimal in terms of minimizing transformations—have now become essential.
life cycle emissions and maximizing population capacity.89
When social dimensions and overall liveability are taken 10.5.5. Building required capacity for sustainable
into account, the arguments against maximizing residential urban futures
density as an objective in and of itself become even stronger. Examples of how integrated planning capacity and
frameworks can be developed as part of initiatives led by
Only a full life cycle approach is entirely compatible international city networks are provided by Buenos Aires and
with achieving urban sustainability and resilience. This Cape Town, which took advantage of their membership in
should certainly be a medium-term objective, though it the Rockefeller Foundation’s 100 Resilient Cities network to
will require considerable preparation in all but the best- formulate their city resilience strategies (Box 10.3). Rather
resourced and capacitated local governments. As with 15- than being top-down efforts that were externally driven by
or 20-minute cities or neighbourhoods, detailed practical the global network, these were both essentially internal
experiments are still awaited but the concept should serve municipal undertakings, using their considerable internal
as an invitation to experiment. skills and capacities to bring together the various previous
fragmented and sectoral policies and strategies, updating and
The language and terminology, as well as available technologies adapting them for coherence at the same time to fit into the
and our understandings of climate change interactions with the integrated framework, and amenable to monitoring in terms
built environment and the implications, continue to evolve. of the City Resilience Index.91 The examples in Box 10.3
However, the essential message about comprehensive change demonstrate how local governments in diverse contexts
being essential was already identified by UN-Habitat in 2009: can formulate comprehensive resilience strategies, whether
“While greening buildings, developing renewable fuel sources framed by the CRI or other tools.
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Box 10.3: Comprehensive city resilience strategies: Buenos Aires, Cape Town and Gothenburg
Some 70 per cent of Buenos Aires’ population live in one of 11 stream basins crossing the city, with about 25 per cent vulnerable
to extreme flooding. This feature constitutes the principal environmental and climate change risk in the metropole, resulting from
modification of and encroachment into the riverine zones, along with most of the water flows having been piped. The Rockefeller
Foundation’s 100 Resilient Cities initiative stimulated the city’s resilience strategy, which is focused around four key issues of
becoming a green city, an integrated city, a city of opportunities and a safe city. These key issues are intersected by three cross-
cutting themes (a metropolitan perspective, citizen participation, and a digital city), all supported by five pillars: diversity, gender
and co-existence; innovation, talent and opportunities; environment and sustainability; social and urban integration; and security
and risk management.92
Cape Town also regularly faces heavy flooding in low-lying, high-density areas, including informal settlements, as well as cyclical
droughts and water shortages. Recognizing the challenges of climate change, it had previously formulated policies and plans on
a sectoral basis, with separate mitigation and adaptation strategies. These have now been integrated and organized thematically,
along with other dimensions of resilience-building that take account of financial constraints and the unique local environment,
which underscores the importance of introducing ecosystem-based adaptation.93 An important feature of Cape Town’s City
Resilience Strategy is its explicit alignment with relevant SDGs to facilitate internal monitoring and external reporting, including by
means of the city’s new Voluntary Local Review process.94
While not a city network member, Gothenburg, Sweden’s second-largest city and industrial hub, with a population of over 500,000,
has developed and implemented many comprehensive sustainability, climate change and resilience policies and programmes. It
too faces flood risks in lower-lying central river and canal environs and associated backfill areas, exacerbated by a combination of
urbanized hard, impervious surfaces and a soil type that inhibits water infiltration, thus generating runoff. As a Swedish pioneer of
climate change action, it undertook thorough studies of vulnerability and risk, including from extreme weather in the first decade
of this century. These plans are currently being updated to reflect changing conditions and urban priorities as well as national
environmental standards. This work is also being geared to addressing the key challenges of resource consumption and climate
change; residential and social segregation between immigrant minorities and the rest of the population; and steering urban growth
with the vision of Gothenburg becoming a climate-smart and resilient city with limited environmental impact.95
All these reasonably progressive examples, however, have 10.6 Final Reflections: Building Resilience
been compiled and are being implemented by means of for Optimistic Urban Futures
principally internal top-down and technocratic processes,
with limited public engagement or participation, let The human impacts on the planet and on the future of human
alone co-production. Levels of citizen awareness, development are now inescapable.97 The importance of the
let alone buy-in or senses of shared ownership, are current context of unprecedented uncertainty and global
therefore limited, as is the planned role for citizens in societal challenges—climate/environmental change, pandemics
implementation. This illustrates one key area in which the and epidemics, economic restructuring, human security and
important capacity of residents is not yet being adequately the like—cannot be ignored. Yet, exploiting the uncertainty to
mobilized or harnessed, if at all, so that overall resilience delay action will only exacerbate the rate, scale, difficulty and
is unlikely to be maximized. It is therefore recommended cost of subsequent action required to tackle climate change
that appropriate training for local government officials and transform urban areas for sustainability and resilience.
and experienced facilitators be utilized as they are often Instead, as world leaders reaffirmed at the United Nations
important in bringing together and building common Framework Convention on Climate Change summit in Glasgow
ground among diverse and sometimes historically in November 2021, the time to act, and act decisively, is now.
antagonistic stakeholders.96 The following section
provides some pointers to how this might be successfully This urgency applies equally to local governments, and is
addressed in terms of realistic transformative ambitions. key to achieving the optimistic urban future first outlined in
325
Chapter 1. Urban futures can go in any number of directions less virulent. Whether it, together with increasing if
and the duty of urban actors is to steer our cities toward still highly unequal vaccination rates, will provide the
the most optimistic future, as outlined in the Sustainable basis for mass immunity against future variants remains
Development Goals and the New Urban Agenda. Cities unknown. A high degree of uncertainty in this respect
can continue on an unsustainable path of widening income remains.98 However, the implications of what we
inequality, worsening air quality, continuous urban sprawl, already know about COVID’s urban epidemiology are
and growing slums and informal settlements that do not clear and reinforce the urgency of concerted action to
provide safe, adequate housing. Or they can change course tackle multidimensional poverty and inequality, and to
and chart the path of well-planned, managed, and financed improve the urban fabric in poor neighbourhoods. Only
cities that create better becomes for all of their residents, by tackling the underlying conditions that foster the
including the most vulnerable. spread and heighten the impact of COVID-19 and other
pandemics and epidemics, will comprehensive urban
In pursuit of the optimistic scenario for urban futures, it is resilience that incorporates social justice be built. This
helpful to reiterate the key messages of this chapter: does not require a dedicated programme in addition
to all existing investment programmes. However, it
The global sustainable development agenda, comprising does demand accelerating the pace of transformative
the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the actions to increase overall sustainability and resilience
New Urban Agenda, Sendai Framework for Disaster substantially.
Risk Reduction, Addis Ababa Action Agenda, and Paris
Agreement on Climate Change, provides a coherent Initiatives to build comprehensive urban resilience must
framework for integrated, multilevel action that therefore be forward-looking, proactive, and inclusive
recognizes the importance of subnational entities, of all stakeholders, including the marginalized and poor.
particularly local governments, in meeting the challenge. They must also be integrated rather than sectoral or
As the lead United Nations agency for human settlements, piecemeal. In other words, they should be multisectoral,
UN-Habitat’s flagship biennial World Cities Report multidimensional and multi-stakeholder—and about
provides dispassionate guidance for decision-makers and building back differently, not just building back better
planners at all levels based on evidence and lessons from along the same lines that perpetuate existing inequalities
around the world. Following the 2020 Report on the value and injustice. As with urban sustainability, this approach
of sustainable urbanization, the current Report focuses is about increasing equity while reducing poverty and
on how to build resilience for sustainable urban futures injustice.
in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, accelerating
climate and environmental change, inequality and poverty, Although incremental and transformational adaptation are
and armed conflict. often juxtaposed in a false dichotomy, in practice there is no
clear dividing line. Moreover, it is important to acknowledge
that if the prevailing balance of political power and vested
The current Report focuses on how to build interests resulted in a failure to make step changes in ambition
resilience for sustainable urban futures in the and practice thus far, this almost certainly reflects self-
context of the COVID-19 pandemic, accelerating interest as well as possible resource and capacity constraints.
climate and environmental change, inequality Hence, it is unlikely that transformational adaptation will
and poverty, and armed conflict suddenly become feasible and without substantive reform or
realignment of those governance institutions and processes.
Moreover, such changes are often complex and slow.
The COVID-19 pandemic has had profound impacts on
urban areas worldwide, with their extent and severity Conversely, substantive gains can be made under
reflecting a complex mixture of socio-cultural and broadly existing arrangements, promoted by appropriate
demographic and health characteristics intersecting with champions among officials and elected representatives,
inequalities within the built environment. The Omicron without demanding unrealistic institutional reinventions
variant has demonstrated the ability of new mutations as a prerequisite. This can be achieved through a set of
to behave very differently from previous ones, being far interventions targeting continuous transformational change,
more transmissible but, for vaccinated people at least, which can be grouped as follows:
326
provide the basic conditions to enable small steps or Consistent with this approach and specifically in urban
wins, which are easier to conceptualize and implement contexts, at least five pathways to urban transformation can
with existing momentum; be discerned as the basis for formulating and implementing
effective climate action (Box 10.4). These pathways are also
amplify small wins through sense-making, coupling consistent with key messages of this chapter and this Report
and integrating—activities that explain the changes as a whole—including the nine pathways to sustainable
and their significance in relation to transformational urban futures framed in Chapter 1, in which the New Urban
change, linking the changes to cognate ones in other Agenda provides the integrating framework. They focus on
departments or levels of institution, and connecting the need for integrated territorial planning and accountable
these changes and experiences to existing institutions governance with a justice or rights focus to tackle climate
so that they benefit and participate in the ongoing change, pandemics, economic insecurity and other societal
transformations; and challenges, coupled with a realistic perspective on how local
governance institutions operate (Chapter 1). Two of the five
unblock stagnations by confronting social and pathways in Box 10.4 focus explicitly on resilience but all
perceptual obsessions with innovative and counter- contribute to building and enhancing it.100 The urgency of
intuitive interventions that demonstrate the potential taking action and building overall urban resilience applies to
of alternatives, provided that officials and elected all the scenarios articulated in Chapters 1 and 2. None avoids
representatives are willing to engage critically, learn and the difficult challenges articulated in this chapter.
adapt procedures and behaviours.99
Box 10.4: Five climate action pathways to urban transformation

Pathway 1: Integrate mitigation and adaptation, as actions that reduce greenhouse gas emissions while integrating increasing
resilience are a win-win
Pathway 2: Coordinate disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation as together these are the cornerstones of resilient
cities
Pathway 3: Co-generate risk assessments and climate action plans with the full range of stakeholders and scientists for the most
effective outcomes
Pathway 4: Focus on disadvantaged populations as the needs of the most disadvantaged and vulnerable citizens should be
addressed at the forefront of climate change planning and action
Pathway 5: Advance governance, finance and knowledge networks as city creditworthiness, developing robust city institutions and
participating in city networks all facilitate climate action
Source: Rosenzweig et al, 2018, pp. 607–608; Simon and Solecki, 2018.
Two final observations about the pathways in Box 10.4 are These observations also apply to the broader set of
required. The first is to flag the importance of matching pathways in Chapter 1, since they emphasise equity,
more accurate, localized and downscaled risk assessments inclusion, appropriateness and the challenges of matching
as per Pathway 3 with appropriate remedial steps and short and medium to long-term interventions to tackle
solutions if policymakers and individual citizens are to be multidimensional poverty and vulnerability and to promote
engaged actively rather than left despondent. The second integrated sustainability and resilience. The prospects
is to underscore the urgency of Pathway 4 to prioritize and for success will be considerably enhanced if cross-party
address the poorest and most vulnerable communities and agreement on the vital importance of this objective, so
localities because they are facing the brunt of hazards and that successive electoral cycles focus on consolidating and
risk and are disproportionately experiencing cascades or building on previous gains instead of changing direction or
chains of increasingly frequent and often severe impacts reversing them.
that are compounding the undermining of their assets and
resilience (Chapter 3).
327
Endnotes
1. Simon et al, 2018. 25. Simon, 2016a; UN-Habitat, 2020a, infrastructure, Pauleit et al, 2021. 79. Alberti et al, 2018; UN-Habitat,
2. Elmqvist et al, 2019, p. 268. pp. 96–106, 277–280. 51. McPhearson et al, 2018. 2020a.
3. Pimm et al, 2019, p. 895. 26. UN-Habitat, 2021a. p. 279. 52. Pauleit et al, 2021. 80. UN-Habitat, 2020a. pp.183–184.
4. World Commission on Environment 27. Spiliotopoulou and Roseland, 2021. 53. Acuto, 2016. 81. UN-Habitat, 2020a. pp.192-198;
and Development, 1987. 28. UN-Habitat, 2020a, pp. 94–95. 54. Simon et al, 2021, pp. 405–409; Cities Today, 2021.
5. Elmqvist et al, 2019, p. 268. 29. UN-Habitat, 2015a, pp. 17-19. Smit et al, 2021. 82. Burch and DiBella, 2021.
Redundancy refers to having some 30. ILO, 2015. 55. Pauleit et al, 2021, pp. 108–110; 83. UN-Habitat, 2018a. UN-Habitat,
spare capacity or resources to act 31. City of Gothenburg, 2019. Simon et al, 2021. 2020a. Effat et al, 2021.
as a buffer or safety net. 32. GIZ, 2017; The Hindu, 2021. 56. UN-Habitat, 2009, p. 118. 84. UN-Habitat, 2015a. Berke et al,
6. UN-Habitat, 2011b. p. 5; see also 33. Anderson et al, 2019. 57. RCN and ARUP, 2021; see also 2021; Simon, 2021.
Simon et al, 2018. 34. UN-Habitat, 2020a. p. 280. Roberts, 2018. 85. Cartwright et al, 2012; Scott et al,
7. Olsson et al, 2015; Ziervogel et al, 35. In some countries, this falls under 58. IEA, 2021; Jacobson, 2021. 2019.
2017; Elmqvist et al, 2019. the jurisdiction of regional or 59. WWF, 2020. 86. Raven et al, 2018; UN-Habitat,
8. Olsson et al, 2015; Pimm et al, national governments. 60. Huxley et al, 2019; Fraser et al, 2018a. Effat et al, 2021.
2019. 36. UN-Habitat, 2007, p. 203. 2022. 87. Raven et al, 2018, pp. 141–144,
9. IPCC, 2021. 37. UNESCO, 2016. 61. Marcotullio et al, 2018. 147–162; C40 and Arup, 2021.
10. UK Environment Agency, 2021. 38. UN-Habitat, 2020a. 62. Collaço et al, 2019a, 2019b; Lampis 88. These two categories together
11. UN-Habitat, 2016a. p. 90; this 39. UN-Habitat, 2020a, pp. 299–301; et al, 2021. are often referred to as comprising
indicates the close relationship De Groot and Lemanski, 2020; 63. ICLEI, 2021. embodied emissions.
between the two concepts in UN- Anderson et al, 2021; Glaeser et 64. Samarakoon et al, 2022. 89. Pomponi et al, 2021; Saint and
Habitat’s approach. See also Castán al, 2021; Pieterse, 2021; Simon et 65. Valencia et al, 2021, pp. 17, 20–21. Pomponi, 2021.
Broto and Westman, 2021. al, 2021a; Sverdlik and Walnycki, 66. UN-Habitat, 2018a. UN-Habitat, 90. UN-Habitat, 2009, p.126.
12. UN-Habitat, 2021a. p.16. 2021; UN-Habitat, 2021a, pp. 61–62, 2020a. 91. Croese et al, 2020; Valencia et al,
13. UN-Habitat 2020a. 163–164; World Economic Forum, 67. Hemström et al, 2021; Sheikh and 2021, pp. 7–11.
14. UN-Habitat, 2021a; McMillan et al, 2021. Bhaduri, 2021. 92. Gobierno de la Ciudad de Buenos
2021. 40. UN-Habitat, 2015a, pp. 14–16. 68. SDI and Know Your City, 2018– Aires 2018; Valencia et al, 2021, pp.
15. Huxley et al, 2019. 41. Cinderby et al, 2021. 2021. 7–9.
16. FAO/RUAF, 2015; Leck and Simon 42. Simon, 2016; Reckien et al, 2016, 69. Simon et al, 2021. 93. Valencia et al, 2021, pp. 9–11.
2019; Croese et al, 2020; Simon, 2020; Castán Broto and Westman, 70. Simon, 2013, p. 209. 94. Croese et al, 2020, Table A1, pp.
2021 2021. 71. UN-Habitat, 2007, p. 38. 12–14.
17. World Bank, 2020. 43. UN-Habitat, 2021a, p. xv. 72. Castán Broto and Westman, 2021. 95. Göteborgs Stad, 2020; Valencia et
18. Berke et al, 2021. 44. Alberti et al, 2018. 73. United Nations, 2017. paras. 9, 15, al, 2021, pp. 11–15.
19. Rockefeller Foundation and Arup, 45. Simon, 2016b; Tozer et al, 2020; 29, 42, 75, 81, 90–91. 96. Hemström et al, 2021 pp. 31–47.
2018. Frantzeskaki and McPhearson, 74. Graute, 2016; Leck and Simon 97. UNDP, 2020.
20. Valencia et al. 2021, p.3. 2021; McPhearson et al, 2018. 2018; Romero-Lankao et al, 2018a; 98. See, for example, the UN
21. The member cities are now 46. Simon, 2016b, Ziervogel et al, 2017; Bulkeley, 2019; Croese et al, 2020; Secretary-General’s statement on
organized into a legacy organization, Reckien et al, 2018; Saldarriaga et Simon 2021; UN-Habitat, 2021a., pp. the International Day of Epidemic
the Global Resilient Cities Network, al, 2020; Tozer et al, 2020; Pauleit et 127–155. Preparedness: https://www.
which seeks to co-ordinate and al, 2021. 75. Hausknost et al, 2018; Castán Broto un.org/en/observances/epidemic-
make progress on the urban 47. Cobbinah and Nyame, 2021. and Westman, 2020; Restrepo- preparedness-day/messages.
resilience agenda. 48. Quian et al, 2015. Mieth, 2021. 99. Leck and Roberts, 2015; Termeer
22. Croese et al, 2020, p.7. 49. Wu et al, 2019; Alexandra, 2019; 76. Burch et al, 2018; Romero-Lankao et al, 2017, pp.562-570; Romero-
23. Croese et al, 2020, p.11. Saldarriaga et al, 2020. et al, 2018b; UN-Habitat, 2018a.; Lankao et al, 2018b; Simon and
24. This includes the scenario of having 50. It should be noted that some Paller, 2021; Restrepo-Mieth, 2021. Solecki, 2018; Perry and Russell,
achieved sufficiently high levels sources include blue—and 77. Cucca and Ranci, 2021. 2020; Patterson et al, 2021.
of vaccination and/or immunity to sometimes also grey—infrastructure 78. Parnell, 2020; UN-Habitat, 2021a. 100. Rosenzweig et al, 2018, pp.xx, 607-
permit living with COVID-19. under the umbrella of green pp. 138–153. 8; Valencia et al, 2021, pp.3-4.
328
Statistical Annex
General Disclaimer: The designations employed and presentation of the data in the Statistical Annex do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsover
on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, city or area of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation
of its frontiers or boundaries.
Table A.1: Urban Population Size and Rate of Change

Urban Population at Mid-Year by Country, Average Annual Rate Percentage of Population at Mid- Average Annual Rate of
2015-2035 (thousands) of Change of the Urban Year Residing in Urban Country and Change of the Percentage
Population by Country, 2015- Area, 2015-2035 Urban by Country, 2015-
2035 (per cent) 2035 (per cent)
Region, subregion, country or area 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030-
2020 2025 2030 2035 2020 2025 2030 2035
WORLD 3,981,498 4,378,994 4,774,646 5,167,258 5,555,833 1.90 1.73 1.58 1.45 53.9 56.2 58.3 60.4 62.5 0.82 0.75 0.71 0.67
More developed regions 979,089 1,003,640 1,027,097 1,049,699 1,070,804 0.50 0.46 0.44 0.40 78.1 79.1 80.2 81.4 82.7 0.24 0.27 0.30 0.32
Less developed regions 3,002,409 3,375,354 3,747,549 4,117,558 4,485,029 2.34 2.09 1.88 1.71 49.0 51.7 54.3 56.7 59.0 1.09 0.97 0.88 0.80
Least developed countries 305,951 372,038 449,498 538,529 639,204 3.91 3.78 3.61 3.43 32.0 34.6 37.4 40.4 43.4 1.60 1.56 1.50 1.43
Less developed regions, excluding 2,696,458 3,003,315 3,298,051 3,579,029 3,845,826 2.16 1.87 1.64 1.44 52.1 55.1 57.8 60.4 62.8 1.10 0.97 0.87 0.79
least developed countries
Less developed regions, excluding 2,201,145 2,473,276 2,763,104 3,071,076 3,396,290 2.33 2.22 2.11 2.01 46.8 48.8 50.9 53.1 55.4 0.82 0.83 0.85 0.86
China
High-income countries 955,213 988,586 1,019,399 1,048,879 1,075,813 0.69 0.61 0.57 0.51 80.9 81.9 82.8 83.9 85.0 0.22 0.24 0.26 0.27
Middle-income countries 2,825,252 3,144,887 3,456,425 3,756,587 4,045,091 2.14 1.89 1.67 1.48 50.8 53.7 56.5 59.0 61.5 1.11 0.99 0.90 0.82
Upper-middle-income countries 1,659,611 1,821,036 1,957,223 2,068,825 2,157,098 1.86 1.44 1.11 0.84 64.1 68.2 71.7 74.8 77.3 1.23 1.01 0.82 0.66
Lower-middle-income countries 1,165,641 1,323,851 1,499,202 1,687,762 1,887,993 2.55 2.49 2.37 2.24 39.2 41.6 44.2 47.0 49.9 1.16 1.20 1.22 1.21
Low-income countries 198,536 242,877 296,030 358,848 431,837 4.03 3.96 3.85 3.70 30.9 33.2 35.7 38.3 41.2 1.40 1.44 1.45 1.44
Sub-Saharan Africa 375,827 458,670 555,123 666,165 792,225 3.98 3.82 3.65 3.47 38.8 41.4 44.2 47.0 49.8 1.33 1.28 1.22 1.15
AFRICA 491,531 587,738 698,149 824,014 966,330 3.58 3.44 3.32 3.19 41.2 43.5 45.9 48.4 50.9 1.09 1.08 1.06 1.04
Eastern Africa 106,096 132,520 164,482 202,579 247,131 4.45 4.32 4.17 3.98 26.6 29.0 31.6 34.5 37.5 1.74 1.75 1.74 1.69
Burundi 1,232 1,637 2,147 2,780 3,569 5.68 5.43 5.17 4.99 12.1 13.7 15.5 17.6 19.9 2.53 2.51 2.48 2.42
Comoros 221 255 296 345 401 2.87 2.97 3.06 3.00 28.5 29.4 30.7 32.5 34.6 0.63 0.89 1.14 1.21
Djibouti 718 781 844 906 965 1.67 1.56 1.42 1.27 77.4 78.1 78.9 80.0 81.2 0.17 0.22 0.26 0.30
Eritrea 1,852 2,246 2,699 3,210 3,782 3.86 3.67 3.47 3.28 38.2 41.3 44.6 47.8 51.0 1.58 1.50 1.40 1.29
Ethiopia 19,403 24,463 30,487 37,496 45,488 4.63 4.40 4.14 3.86 19.4 21.7 24.2 26.9 29.7 2.21 2.16 2.11 2.03
Kenya 12,120 14,975 18,372 22,383 27,026 4.23 4.09 3.95 3.77 25.7 28.0 30.6 33.4 36.5 1.74 1.77 1.78 1.75
Madagascar 8,529 10,670 13,200 16,102 19,328 4.48 4.26 3.97 3.65 35.2 38.5 41.9 45.2 48.5 1.81 1.68 1.53 1.37
Malawi 2,867 3,535 4,407 5,551 7,022 4.19 4.41 4.62 4.70 16.3 17.4 18.9 20.9 23.3 1.32 1.66 1.96 2.20
Mauritius 516 519 527 539 554 0.11 0.28 0.45 0.56 41.0 40.8 41.0 41.9 43.2 - 0.12 0.14 0.39 0.63
Mayotte 113 125 139 157 179 2.05 2.19 2.41 2.62 47.0 45.8 45.3 45.7 47.0 - 0.53 - 0.18 0.18 0.53
Mozambique 9,636 11,978 14,811 18,195 22,168 4.35 4.24 4.12 3.95 34.4 37.1 39.9 42.9 46.0 1.50 1.47 1.44 1.39
Réunion 858 893 927 956 980 0.82 0.73 0.62 0.50 99.3 99.7 99.8 99.9 99.9 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00
Rwanda 1,977 2,281 2,660 3,144 3,769 2.86 3.07 3.34 3.63 17.0 17.4 18.3 19.6 21.5 0.50 0.96 1.40 1.82
Seychelles 52 55 58 61 63 1.26 0.99 0.81 0.70 55.4 57.5 59.7 61.7 63.8 0.76 0.72 0.69 0.65
Somalia 6,015 7,431 9,169 11,229 13,626 4.23 4.20 4.05 3.87 43.2 46.1 49.1 52.1 55.2 1.30 1.25 1.20 1.13
South Sudan 2,240 2,749 3,378 4,164 5,137 4.10 4.12 4.18 4.20 18.9 20.2 21.9 24.1 26.8 1.38 1.66 1.90 2.08
Uganda 8,856 11,775 15,431 19,914 25,273 5.70 5.41 5.10 4.77 22.1 25.0 28.0 31.2 34.4 2.47 2.31 2.15 1.98
United Republic of Tanzania 17,035 22,113 28,245 35,529 44,001 5.22 4.89 4.59 4.28 31.6 35.2 38.9 42.4 45.9 2.16 1.96 1.76 1.56
Zambia 6,747 8,336 10,257 12,549 15,220 4.23 4.15 4.03 3.86 41.9 44.6 47.5 50.5 53.5 1.26 1.25 1.22 1.17
Zimbabwe 5,109 5,700 6,430 7,370 8,581 2.19 2.41 2.73 3.04 32.4 32.2 32.9 34.2 36.4 - 0.09 0.38 0.83 1.24
Middle Africa 73,632 90,619 110,579 133,728 160,150 4.15 3.98 3.80 3.61 47.9 50.6 53.4 56.2 59.0 1.11 1.07 1.03 0.97
Angola 17,676 21,937 26,848 32,437 38,691 4.32 4.04 3.78 3.53 63.4 66.8 69.9 72.5 74.9 1.04 0.89 0.75 0.64
Cameroon 12,463 14,942 17,740 20,857 24,291 3.63 3.43 3.24 3.05 54.6 57.6 60.5 63.2 65.9 1.06 0.98 0.90 0.81
Central African Republic 1,831 2,077 2,452 2,918 3,455 2.52 3.32 3.48 3.38 40.3 42.2 44.7 47.6 50.8 0.93 1.14 1.29 1.29
Chad 3,154 3,830 4,701 5,819 7,246 3.88 4.10 4.27 4.39 22.5 23.5 25.0 27.1 29.8 0.87 1.25 1.60 1.89
Congo 3,274 3,857 4,524 5,290 6,156 3.28 3.19 3.13 3.03 65.5 67.8 70.1 72.3 74.4 0.69 0.65 0.62 0.57
Democratic Republic of the Congo 32,567 40,848 50,723 62,343 75,773 4.53 4.33 4.13 3.90 42.7 45.6 48.7 51.8 54.8 1.31 1.29 1.23 1.16
Equatorial Guinea 830 1,028 1,232 1,445 1,660 4.28 3.62 3.18 2.78 70.6 73.1 75.3 77.2 78.9 0.69 0.59 0.50 0.43
Gabon 1,701 1,938 2,171 2,403 2,636 2.61 2.27 2.03 1.85 88.1 90.1 91.6 92.7 93.5 0.44 0.33 0.24 0.17
Sao Tome and Principe 137 162 188 215 242 3.33 2.96 2.67 2.38 70.2 74.4 77.6 80.0 81.8 1.16 0.85 0.62 0.44
Northern Africa 115,705 129,068 143,026 157,849 174,104 2.19 2.05 1.97 1.96 51.4 52.5 53.8 55.3 57.2 0.41 0.49 0.58 0.66
Algeria 28,248 31,951 35,292 38,232 40,882 2.46 1.99 1.60 1.34 70.8 73.7 76.2 78.3 80.0 0.80 0.66 0.54 0.44
Egypt 40,123 44,041 48,427 53,613 59,988 1.86 1.90 2.03 2.25 42.8 42.8 43.4 44.8 46.8 - 0.00 0.31 0.60 0.87
Libya 4,942 5,376 5,780 6,140 6,460 1.68 1.45 1.21 1.02 79.3 80.7 82.2 83.6 85.0 0.36 0.37 0.34 0.32
Morocco 21,164 23,552 25,869 28,069 30,127 2.14 1.88 1.63 1.42 60.8 63.5 66.2 68.7 71.0 0.88 0.81 0.75 0.68
Sudan 13,099 15,349 18,220 21,775 26,089 3.17 3.43 3.56 3.62 33.9 35.3 37.2 39.7 42.8 0.79 1.07 1.31 1.49
Tunisia 7,672 8,281 8,854 9,372 9,848 1.53 1.34 1.14 0.99 68.1 69.6 71.2 73.0 74.8 0.44 0.47 0.49 0.50
329
Statistical Annex
Table A.1: Continued

2020 2025 2030 2035 2020 2025 2030 2035
Western Sahara 455 519 583 647 710 2.61 2.34 2.08 1.86 86.5 86.8 87.3 87.8 88.5 0.07 0.10 0.13 0.15
Southern Africa 39,358 43,688 47,900 51,909 55,758 2.09 1.84 1.61 1.43 62.1 64.6 67.1 69.4 71.6 0.81 0.75 0.68 0.61
Botswana 1,484 1,712 1,937 2,151 2,353 2.87 2.47 2.10 1.79 67.2 70.9 74.1 76.8 79.1 1.08 0.89 0.72 0.59
Lesotho 585 674 774 887 1,014 2.83 2.77 2.71 2.69 26.9 29.0 31.4 34.0 36.9 1.52 1.56 1.60 1.61
Namibia 1,138 1,403 1,684 1,972 2,261 4.20 3.64 3.16 2.74 46.9 52.0 56.7 60.8 64.2 2.08 1.71 1.39 1.11
South Africa 35,844 39,551 43,113 46,457 49,631 1.97 1.72 1.49 1.32 64.8 67.4 69.8 72.1 74.2 0.76 0.71 0.65 0.59
Swaziland 307 348 393 442 498 2.48 2.42 2.38 2.37 23.3 24.2 25.2 26.5 28.1 0.73 0.87 1.00 1.11
Western Africa 156,740 191,842 232,162 277,949 329,187 4.04 3.82 3.60 3.38 44.5 47.7 50.7 53.6 56.3 1.39 1.25 1.11 0.98
Benin 4,833 5,869 7,076 8,461 10,024 3.89 3.74 3.57 3.39 45.7 48.4 51.2 54.1 57.1 1.16 1.13 1.10 1.05
Burkina Faso 4,986 6,398 8,113 10,163 12,559 4.99 4.75 4.51 4.23 27.5 30.6 33.8 37.1 40.4 2.12 1.99 1.86 1.72
Cabo Verde 343 378 414 450 484 1.97 1.83 1.65 1.45 64.3 66.7 68.8 70.9 72.7 0.72 0.64 0.58 0.52
Côte d’Ivoire 11,426 13,532 16,022 18,912 22,231 3.38 3.38 3.32 3.23 49.4 51.7 54.1 56.7 59.4 0.89 0.92 0.93 0.93
Gambia 1,171 1,435 1,731 2,055 2,403 4.07 3.75 3.43 3.12 59.2 62.6 65.7 68.5 71.0 1.10 0.97 0.84 0.72
Ghana 14,918 17,626 20,539 23,641 26,912 3.34 3.06 2.81 2.59 54.1 57.3 60.5 63.4 66.1 1.17 1.06 0.95 0.83
Guinea 4,249 5,071 6,083 7,300 8,744 3.54 3.64 3.65 3.61 35.1 36.9 39.0 41.4 44.2 0.96 1.10 1.22 1.30
Guinea-Bissau 746 884 1,038 1,209 1,397 3.41 3.22 3.03 2.89 42.1 44.2 46.3 48.5 50.7 0.96 0.94 0.91 0.89
Liberia 2,242 2,659 3,150 3,722 4,372 3.41 3.39 3.33 3.22 49.8 52.1 54.6 57.3 60.1 0.89 0.94 0.97 0.96
Mali 6,986 8,907 11,191 13,850 16,846 4.86 4.57 4.26 3.92 40.0 43.9 47.7 51.2 54.4 1.87 1.64 1.42 1.21
Mauritania 2,137 2,647 3,207 3,808 4,444 4.28 3.84 3.44 3.09 51.1 55.3 59.2 62.7 65.7 1.59 1.35 1.14 0.94
Niger 3,233 4,003 5,068 6,542 8,581 4.27 4.72 5.11 5.43 16.2 16.6 17.4 18.7 20.5 0.46 0.94 1.40 1.84
Nigeria 86,673 107,113 130,312 156,300 184,888 4.23 3.92 3.64 3.36 47.8 52.0 55.8 59.2 62.2 1.65 1.41 1.19 0.99
Saint Helena 2 2 2 2 2 0.73 0.98 1.12 1.06 39.5 40.1 41.1 42.7 44.8 0.27 0.52 0.75 0.95
Senegal 6,869 8,277 9,904 11,778 13,929 3.73 3.59 3.47 3.35 45.9 48.1 50.6 53.2 56.0 0.96 1.00 1.02 1.02
Sierra Leone 2,955 3,454 4,017 4,651 5,351 3.12 3.02 2.93 2.81 40.8 42.9 45.3 47.8 50.6 1.00 1.06 1.11 1.13
Togo 2,974 3,588 4,296 5,106 6,021 3.76 3.60 3.46 3.30 40.1 42.8 45.6 48.6 51.6 1.30 1.29 1.26 1.21
ASIA 2,119,873 2,361,464 2,589,655 2,802,262 2,998,511 2.16 1.84 1.58 1.35 48.0 51.1 54.0 56.7 59.2 1.26 1.10 0.98 0.88
Eastern Asia 977,010 1,078,435 1,160,857 1,222,479 1,263,838 1.98 1.47 1.03 0.67 59.8 64.8 69.2 72.8 75.7 1.63 1.31 1.02 0.79
China 775,353 875,076 956,554 1,017,847 1,059,619 2.42 1.78 1.24 0.80 55.5 61.4 66.5 70.6 73.9 2.03 1.58 1.21 0.91
China, Hong Kong SAR 7,246 7,548 7,769 7,987 8,127 0.82 0.58 0.56 0.35 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
China, Macao SAR 601 652 701 746 784 1.63 1.46 1.23 0.99 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
China, Taiwan Province of China 18,064 18,802 19,421 19,902 20,210 0.80 0.65 0.49 0.31 76.9 78.9 80.8 82.4 83.9 0.52 0.46 0.40 0.35
Dem. People’s Republic of Korea 15,469 16,120 16,816 17,531 18,220 0.82 0.85 0.83 0.77 61.3 62.4 63.8 65.6 67.6 0.36 0.45 0.54 0.60
Japan 116,944 116,100 114,646 112,710 110,450 - 0.14 - 0.25 - 0.34 - 0.41 91.4 91.8 92.2 92.7 93.2 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.11
Mongolia 2,031 2,203 2,363 2,514 2,666 1.63 1.40 1.24 1.17 68.2 68.7 69.5 70.6 72.1 0.12 0.23 0.33 0.42
Republic of Korea 41,302 41,934 42,587 43,241 43,762 0.30 0.31 0.30 0.24 81.6 81.4 81.6 82.0 82.9 - 0.05 0.03 0.12 0.20
South-Central Asia 661,808 745,069 835,323 931,437 1,032,413 2.37 2.29 2.18 2.06 35.0 37.1 39.4 42.0 44.9 1.17 1.23 1.28 1.31
Central Asia 33,057 35,681 38,432 41,414 44,820 1.53 1.49 1.49 1.58 48.1 48.3 49.1 50.5 52.5 0.09 0.33 0.56 0.76
Kazakhstan 10,151 10,829 11,494 12,186 12,963 1.29 1.19 1.17 1.24 57.2 57.7 58.6 60.0 61.9 0.17 0.32 0.48 0.61
Kyrgyzstan 2,098 2,323 2,574 2,862 3,201 2.03 2.05 2.12 2.24 35.8 36.9 38.6 40.9 43.9 0.59 0.90 1.18 1.40
Tajikistan 2,286 2,606 2,988 3,444 4,009 2.62 2.73 2.85 3.03 26.7 27.5 28.8 30.8 33.3 0.56 0.94 1.30 1.61
Turkmenistan 2,800 3,167 3,541 3,917 4,297 2.46 2.23 2.02 1.85 50.3 52.5 55.1 57.9 60.8 0.86 0.95 1.00 0.97
Uzbekistan 15,720 16,756 17,836 19,005 20,349 1.28 1.25 1.27 1.37 50.8 50.4 50.7 51.8 53.5 - 0.13 0.13 0.40 0.65
Southern Asia 628,751 709,388 796,892 890,024 987,592 2.41 2.33 2.21 2.08 34.5 36.6 39.1 41.7 44.6 1.22 1.27 1.31 1.33
Afghanistan 8,368 9,904 11,705 13,818 16,279 3.37 3.34 3.32 3.28 24.8 26.0 27.6 29.6 32.0 0.96 1.18 1.38 1.55
Bangladesh 55,305 64,815 74,838 84,689 93,958 3.17 2.88 2.47 2.08 34.3 38.2 42.0 45.6 49.0 2.14 1.90 1.67 1.44
Bhutan 305 353 401 444 482 2.98 2.51 2.05 1.64 38.7 42.3 45.6 48.6 51.1 1.80 1.51 1.25 1.02
India 429,069 483,099 542,743 607,342 675,456 2.37 2.33 2.25 2.13 32.8 34.9 37.4 40.1 43.2 1.27 1.36 1.42 1.46
Iran (Islamic Republic of) 58,217 63,421 67,760 71,205 74,092 1.71 1.32 0.99 0.79 73.4 75.9 78.1 80.1 81.9 0.67 0.59 0.51 0.43
Maldives 161 187 210 231 250 2.93 2.34 1.88 1.66 38.5 40.7 42.8 45.0 47.3 1.08 1.04 1.00 0.96
Nepal 5,318 6,226 7,266 8,408 9,623 3.15 3.09 2.92 2.70 18.6 20.6 22.8 25.4 28.1 2.07 2.09 2.09 2.06
Pakistan 68,227 77,438 87,777 99,360 112,484 2.53 2.51 2.48 2.48 36.0 37.2 38.7 40.7 43.1 0.62 0.81 0.99 1.15
Sri Lanka 3,781 3,945 4,193 4,528 4,967 0.85 1.22 1.54 1.85 18.3 18.7 19.6 21.1 23.1 0.49 0.97 1.42 1.83
South-Eastern Asia 299,412 334,419 369,699 404,497 438,119 2.21 2.01 1.80 1.60 47.2 50.0 52.8 55.6 58.3 1.16 1.09 1.03 0.96
Brunei Darussalam 320 348 374 397 417 1.66 1.44 1.21 1.00 76.7 78.3 79.7 81.1 82.4 0.41 0.37 0.34 0.31
Cambodia 3,443 4,050 4,721 5,458 6,272 3.25 3.06 2.90 2.78 22.2 24.2 26.5 29.0 31.8 1.76 1.80 1.82 1.82
Indonesia 137,635 154,189 170,361 185,755 200,062 2.27 1.99 1.73 1.48 53.3 56.6 59.8 62.8 65.6 1.21 1.09 0.98 0.87
Lao People’s Democratic Republic 2,206 2,600 3,019 3,452 3,889 3.28 2.99 2.68 2.38 33.1 36.3 39.6 42.9 46.2 1.84 1.73 1.61 1.49
Malaysia 22,801 25,362 27,845 30,109 32,067 2.13 1.87 1.56 1.26 74.2 77.2 79.7 81.8 83.5 0.78 0.64 0.52 0.43
Myanmar 15,647 17,068 18,722 20,615 22,714 1.74 1.85 1.93 1.94 29.9 31.1 32.8 35.0 37.6 0.84 1.07 1.26 1.43
Philippines 47,078 52,009 57,606 63,844 70,692 1.99 2.04 2.06 2.04 46.3 47.4 49.0 50.9 53.3 0.48 0.64 0.79 0.91
Singapore 5,535 5,935 6,157 6,342 6,480 1.39 0.74 0.59 0.43 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Thailand 32,746 35,698 38,344 40,676 42,609 1.73 1.43 1.18 0.93 47.7 51.4 55.0 58.4 61.6 1.51 1.35 1.20 1.05
330

2020 2025 2030 2035 2020 2025 2030 2035
Timor-Leste 366 433 511 600 701 3.35 3.31 3.23 3.10 29.5 31.3 33.2 35.2 37.3 1.20 1.18 1.16 1.14
Viet Nam 31,635 36,727 42,039 47,248 52,216 2.98 2.70 2.34 2.00 33.8 37.3 40.9 44.5 47.9 1.99 1.83 1.66 1.50
Western Asia 181,644 203,541 223,776 243,848 264,141 2.28 1.90 1.72 1.60 70.4 72.3 73.8 75.4 76.9 0.55 0.41 0.42 0.41
Armenia 1,840 1,861 1,882 1,906 1,934 0.22 0.23 0.25 0.30 63.1 63.3 64.1 65.5 67.5 0.07 0.26 0.43 0.58
Azerbaijan 5,262 5,696 6,101 6,491 6,883 1.58 1.38 1.24 1.17 54.7 56.4 58.4 60.8 63.4 0.61 0.71 0.79 0.84
Bahrain 1,221 1,520 1,679 1,828 1,941 4.38 1.99 1.71 1.20 89.0 89.5 90.1 90.8 91.5 0.11 0.14 0.15 0.14
Cyprus 777 807 838 873 912 0.75 0.76 0.81 0.87 66.9 66.8 67.2 68.1 69.4 - 0.04 0.11 0.26 0.39
Georgia 2,270 2,318 2,359 2,394 2,426 0.42 0.35 0.30 0.26 57.4 59.5 61.6 63.9 66.2 0.69 0.71 0.72 0.72
Iraq 25,252 29,423 34,039 39,208 44,985 3.06 2.91 2.83 2.75 69.9 70.9 72.1 73.6 75.2 0.28 0.34 0.40 0.44
Israel 7,434 8,068 8,698 9,337 9,994 1.64 1.51 1.42 1.36 92.2 92.6 93.0 93.5 94.0 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.11
Jordan 8,267 9,333 9,802 10,364 11,113 2.43 0.98 1.12 1.39 90.3 91.4 92.4 93.2 93.9 0.26 0.21 0.17 0.14
Kuwait 3,936 4,303 4,603 4,874 5,111 1.78 1.35 1.14 0.95 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lebanon 5,155 5,353 5,033 4,864 4,875 0.75 - 1.23 - 0.68 0.05 88.1 88.9 89.8 90.6 91.4 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.17
Oman 3,417 4,443 4,990 5,407 5,703 5.25 2.32 1.61 1.07 81.4 86.3 89.5 91.7 93.1 1.18 0.74 0.47 0.30
Qatar 2,455 2,770 3,011 3,217 3,389 2.41 1.66 1.32 1.04 98.9 99.2 99.4 99.5 99.6 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.01
Saudi Arabia 26,249 29,256 31,843 34,143 36,170 2.17 1.69 1.40 1.15 83.2 84.3 85.4 86.5 87.5 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.24
State of Palestine 3,514 4,083 4,708 5,371 6,069 3.00 2.85 2.64 2.44 75.4 76.7 78.2 79.7 81.3 0.36 0.38 0.39 0.39
Syrian Arab Republic 9,774 10,498 13,736 16,423 18,657 1.43 5.38 3.57 2.55 52.2 55.5 58.7 61.7 64.6 1.23 1.12 1.01 0.91
Turkey 57,617 63,803 67,446 70,951 74,481 2.04 1.11 1.01 0.97 73.6 76.1 78.3 80.2 81.9 0.67 0.57 0.49 0.41
United Arab Emirates 7,843 8,542 9,207 9,865 10,492 1.71 1.50 1.38 1.23 85.7 87.0 88.2 89.2 90.1 0.32 0.27 0.23 0.19
Yemen 9,361 11,465 13,802 16,330 19,007 4.06 3.71 3.36 3.04 34.8 37.9 41.1 44.4 47.6 1.72 1.63 1.51 1.40
EUROPE 547,147 556,684 565,026 572,890 580,282 0.35 0.30 0.28 0.26 73.9 74.9 76.1 77.5 79.0 0.28 0.32 0.36 0.39
Eastern Europe 203,146 203,296 203,360 203,271 203,286 0.01 0.01 - 0.01 0.00 69.3 69.9 70.9 72.2 73.9 0.18 0.28 0.37 0.45
Belarus 7,321 7,484 7,590 7,631 7,629 0.44 0.28 0.11 - 0.01 77.2 79.5 81.5 83.3 84.8 0.59 0.50 0.43 0.36
Bulgaria 5,311 5,253 5,179 5,082 4,965 - 0.22 - 0.28 - 0.38 - 0.47 74.0 75.7 77.4 79.0 80.6 0.45 0.44 0.42 0.40
Czechia 7,791 7,875 7,953 8,009 8,052 0.21 0.20 0.14 0.11 73.5 74.1 74.9 76.1 77.4 0.16 0.23 0.30 0.36
Hungary 6,898 6,922 6,938 6,940 6,919 0.07 0.05 0.01 - 0.06 70.5 71.9 73.5 75.1 76.8 0.40 0.43 0.44 0.45
Poland 23,065 22,782 22,598 22,533 22,568 - 0.25 - 0.16 - 0.06 0.03 60.3 60.0 60.5 61.5 63.2 - 0.08 0.14 0.35 0.54
Republic of Moldova 1,728 1,722 1,729 1,749 1,778 - 0.07 0.09 0.23 0.33 42.5 42.8 43.9 45.5 47.8 0.17 0.46 0.74 0.98
Romania 10,711 10,507 10,431 10,456 10,554 - 0.38 - 0.15 0.05 0.19 53.9 54.2 55.1 56.6 58.7 0.11 0.34 0.54 0.72
Russian Federation 106,549 107,486 108,062 108,337 108,569 0.18 0.11 0.05 0.04 74.1 74.8 75.8 77.1 78.6 0.19 0.27 0.34 0.40
Slovakia 2,931 2,931 2,955 2,998 3,054 - 0.00 0.17 0.28 0.37 53.9 53.8 54.3 55.6 57.6 - 0.05 0.22 0.47 0.70
Ukraine 30,841 30,335 29,924 29,537 29,198 - 0.33 - 0.27 - 0.26 - 0.23 69.1 69.6 70.5 71.7 73.2 0.16 0.25 0.34 0.41
Northern Europe 83,943 87,488 90,892 94,053 96,959 0.83 0.76 0.68 0.61 81.4 82.6 83.8 85.0 86.1 0.30 0.29 0.28 0.26
Channel Islands 51 52 54 56 59 0.46 0.68 0.88 1.06 31.0 31.0 31.4 32.2 33.4 0.00 0.26 0.52 0.76
Denmark 4,979 5,108 5,248 5,389 5,516 0.51 0.54 0.53 0.47 87.5 88.1 88.8 89.4 90.2 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.16
Estonia 900 900 899 895 891 0.01 - 0.03 - 0.08 - 0.09 68.4 69.2 70.2 71.4 72.8 0.24 0.29 0.33 0.37
Faeroe Islands 20 21 22 23 25 0.74 0.89 1.05 1.13 41.6 42.4 43.4 44.8 46.4 0.36 0.48 0.60 0.71
Finland 4,672 4,772 4,874 4,970 5,054 0.42 0.42 0.39 0.33 85.2 85.5 86.0 86.6 87.4 0.07 0.11 0.14 0.17
Iceland 309 322 334 345 355 0.81 0.74 0.64 0.54 93.7 93.9 94.1 94.4 94.8 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07
Ireland 2,939 3,111 3,295 3,484 3,691 1.14 1.15 1.12 1.15 62.5 63.7 65.1 66.8 68.7 0.35 0.44 0.51 0.57
Isle of Man 43 45 48 50 53 0.89 0.97 1.04 1.10 52.2 52.9 54.0 55.4 57.2 0.25 0.39 0.53 0.65
Latvia 1,355 1,293 1,250 1,222 1,197 - 0.93 - 0.68 - 0.46 - 0.40 68.0 68.3 69.0 69.9 71.2 0.10 0.19 0.28 0.36
Lithuania 1,971 1,941 1,929 1,920 1,909 - 0.31 - 0.12 - 0.10 - 0.11 67.2 68.0 69.2 70.6 72.4 0.24 0.33 0.41 0.48
Norway 4,217 4,522 4,830 5,130 5,409 1.40 1.32 1.20 1.06 81.1 83.0 84.6 86.1 87.3 0.46 0.40 0.34 0.29
Sweden 8,451 8,905 9,309 9,669 9,977 1.05 0.89 0.76 0.63 86.6 88.0 89.2 90.3 91.2 0.33 0.28 0.24 0.20
United Kingdom 54,035 56,495 58,799 60,899 62,822 0.89 0.80 0.70 0.62 82.6 83.9 85.1 86.3 87.4 0.31 0.29 0.27 0.25
Southern Europe 107,618 109,342 110,832 112,280 113,554 0.32 0.27 0.26 0.23 70.6 72.1 73.8 75.4 77.2 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.45
Albania 1,679 1,827 1,949 2,038 2,090 1.69 1.29 0.90 0.51 57.4 62.1 66.1 69.5 72.2 1.57 1.25 0.99 0.77
Andorra 69 68 68 69 69 - 0.31 0.11 0.12 0.15 88.3 87.9 87.7 87.8 88.2 - 0.10 - 0.04 0.02 0.08
Bosnia and Herzegovina 1,668 1,715 1,768 1,824 1,876 0.55 0.61 0.62 0.56 47.2 49.0 51.2 53.6 56.2 0.77 0.85 0.92 0.96
Croatia 2,379 2,369 2,375 2,394 2,421 - 0.08 0.05 0.16 0.22 56.2 57.6 59.3 61.5 63.9 0.49 0.61 0.70 0.77
Gibraltar 34 35 36 36 36 0.45 0.28 0.22 0.18 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Greece 8,755 8,850 8,897 8,926 8,940 0.22 0.11 0.06 0.03 78.0 79.7 81.3 82.8 84.1 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.33
Holy See 1 1 1 1 1 - 0.05 0.0 - 0.10 - 0.05 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Italy 41,394 42,007 42,569 43,161 43,722 0.29 0.27 0.28 0.26 69.6 71.0 72.6 74.3 76.0 0.42 0.44 0.45 0.46
Malta 404 412 417 420 418 0.38 0.28 0.11 - 0.08 94.4 94.7 95.1 95.4 95.7 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07
Montenegro 413 425 435 443 449 0.54 0.45 0.37 0.28 65.8 67.5 69.2 70.9 72.5 0.50 0.49 0.48 0.47
Portugal 6,617 6,776 6,926 7,049 7,135 0.47 0.44 0.35 0.24 63.5 66.3 68.9 71.4 73.6 0.86 0.78 0.69 0.61
San Marino 32 33 34 34 34 0.67 0.41 0.28 0.17 96.7 97.5 98.0 98.4 98.6 0.16 0.11 0.07 0.05
Serbia 4,930 4,913 4,924 4,953 4,993 - 0.07 0.04 0.12 0.16 55.7 56.4 57.6 59.3 61.3 0.27 0.42 0.56 0.68
Slovenia 1,116 1,148 1,179 1,211 1,244 0.56 0.54 0.53 0.53 53.8 55.1 56.8 58.8 61.1 0.49 0.60 0.70 0.77
331
Statistical Annex

2020 2025 2030 2035 2020 2025 2030 2035
Spain 36,933 37,544 37,996 38,420 38,785 0.33 0.24 0.22 0.19 79.6 80.8 82.1 83.3 84.6 0.30 0.31 0.30 0.30
TFYR Macedonia 1,194 1,221 1,259 1,303 1,342 0.45 0.61 0.69 0.58 57.4 58.5 60.3 62.7 65.4 0.37 0.61 0.80 0.83
Western Europe 152,441 156,558 159,942 163,286 166,483 0.53 0.43 0.41 0.39 79.4 80.2 81.2 82.2 83.4 0.21 0.24 0.26 0.28
Austria 5,009 5,159 5,338 5,531 5,727 0.59 0.68 0.71 0.70 57.7 58.7 60.1 61.8 63.8 0.35 0.46 0.56 0.64
Belgium 11,048 11,397 11,614 11,811 11,984 0.62 0.38 0.34 0.29 97.9 98.1 98.3 98.4 98.6 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03
France 51,343 53,218 55,019 56,789 58,489 0.72 0.67 0.63 0.59 79.7 81.0 82.3 83.6 84.9 0.33 0.33 0.32 0.31
Germany 63,078 63,930 64,346 64,871 65,466 0.27 0.13 0.16 0.18 77.2 77.5 78.0 78.9 80.1 0.07 0.15 0.23 0.29
Liechtenstein 5 6 6 6 7 0.81 1.15 1.44 1.69 14.3 14.4 14.8 15.5 16.5 0.16 0.54 0.91 1.27
Luxembourg 511 552 593 629 663 1.55 1.43 1.17 1.07 90.2 91.5 92.4 93.2 93.8 0.28 0.22 0.17 0.12
Monaco 38 39 40 41 42 0.51 0.50 0.52 0.52 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Netherlands 15,274 15,847 16,319 16,671 16,895 0.74 0.59 0.43 0.27 90.2 92.2 93.7 94.8 95.5 0.45 0.32 0.22 0.15
Switzerland 6,133 6,409 6,668 6,937 7,208 0.88 0.79 0.79 0.77 73.7 73.9 74.5 75.4 76.6 0.05 0.15 0.24 0.32
LATIN AMERICA AND THE 505,392 539,427 571,254 600,480 626,673 1.30 1.15 1.00 0.85 79.9 81.2 82.4 83.6 84.7 0.31 0.30 0.28 0.27
CARIBBEAN
Caribbean 30,319 32,251 34,069 35,729 37,157 1.24 1.10 0.95 0.78 70.0 72.2 74.3 76.2 78.0 0.61 0.57 0.52 0.47
Anguilla 15 15 16 16 16 0.90 0.47 0.28 0.14 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Antigua and Barbuda 25 26 27 28 30 0.55 0.87 1.15 1.40 25.0 24.4 24.4 24.8 25.7 - 0.46 - 0.06 0.35 0.74
Aruba 45 47 48 50 53 0.67 0.77 0.87 0.89 43.1 43.7 44.7 46.2 48.0 0.27 0.46 0.63 0.79
Bahamas 320 339 356 373 387 1.13 1.02 0.89 0.76 82.7 83.2 83.9 84.7 85.7 0.12 0.16 0.19 0.22
Barbados 89 90 92 95 100 0.20 0.46 0.70 0.93 31.2 31.2 31.7 32.8 34.5 - 0.04 0.32 0.67 1.00
British Virgin Islands 14 16 17 19 20 2.42 1.73 1.52 1.31 46.6 48.5 50.6 52.8 55.0 0.81 0.84 0.85 0.81
Caribbean Netherlands 18 20 21 21 22 1.37 0.88 0.81 0.75 74.8 75.0 75.6 76.5 77.6 0.08 0.16 0.23 0.29
Cayman Islands 60 64 68 71 74 1.27 1.13 1.00 0.87 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cuba 8,813 8,874 8,957 9,048 9,112 0.14 0.19 0.20 0.14 76.9 77.2 77.8 78.7 79.9 0.08 0.16 0.23 0.29
Curaçao 141 146 150 154 158 0.62 0.57 0.52 0.48 89.4 89.1 89.1 89.3 89.9 - 0.07 - 0.00 0.06 0.12
Dominica 51 53 56 58 59 0.94 0.84 0.67 0.48 69.6 71.1 72.6 74.2 75.7 0.43 0.43 0.42 0.41
Dominican Republic 8,272 9,169 9,950 10,618 11,170 2.06 1.64 1.30 1.01 78.6 82.5 85.5 87.8 89.4 0.99 0.71 0.51 0.37
Grenada 38 40 42 44 46 0.76 0.86 0.87 0.95 36.0 36.5 37.5 38.9 40.7 0.30 0.52 0.72 0.91
Guadeloupe 443 442 441 442 441 - 0.08 - 0.04 0.04 - 0.02 98.4 98.5 98.6 98.7 98.8 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02
Haiti 5,616 6,492 7,343 8,144 8,870 2.90 2.47 2.07 1.71 52.4 57.1 61.3 64.9 68.0 1.70 1.41 1.16 0.94
Jamaica 1,575 1,640 1,707 1,770 1,827 0.82 0.79 0.73 0.64 54.8 56.3 58.2 60.3 62.8 0.53 0.65 0.74 0.80
Martinique 343 344 344 344 344 0.02 0.03 0.00 - 0.03 89.0 89.1 89.5 90.1 90.8 0.04 0.08 0.13 0.15
Montserrat 0 0 1 1 1 0.64 0.94 1.20 1.52 9.0 9.1 9.4 9.9 10.6 0.16 0.58 0.98 1.38
Puerto Rico 3,439 3,416 3,395 3,376 3,345 - 0.14 - 0.12 - 0.11 - 0.19 93.6 93.6 93.7 94.0 94.4 - 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.09
Saint Kitts and Nevis 17 18 18 20 21 0.92 1.06 1.22 1.37 30.8 30.8 31.4 32.4 34.0 0.01 0.34 0.66 0.96
Saint Lucia 33 34 36 38 40 0.80 0.98 1.14 1.27 18.5 18.8 19.5 20.4 21.6 0.35 0.64 0.92 1.19
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 56 59 62 64 67 1.03 0.94 0.84 0.75 51.0 53.0 55.2 57.3 59.4 0.80 0.78 0.76 0.73
Sint Maarten (Dutch part) 39 41 44 46 48 1.31 1.16 0.98 0.80 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Trinidad and Tobago 725 733 742 753 768 0.22 0.23 0.30 0.41 53.3 53.2 53.7 54.8 56.5 - 0.04 0.19 0.40 0.60
Turks and Caicos Islands 32 35 37 40 42 1.77 1.46 1.24 1.05 92.2 93.6 94.6 95.3 95.8 0.30 0.21 0.15 0.10
United States Virgin Islands 100 101 100 99 96 0.10 - 0.11 - 0.29 - 0.44 95.4 95.9 96.4 96.8 97.0 0.12 0.10 0.07 0.06
Central America 127,304 138,768 149,898 160,493 170,368 1.72 1.54 1.37 1.19 73.7 75.4 76.9 78.5 80.0 0.44 0.41 0.40 0.38
Belize 163 183 205 230 256 2.32 2.30 2.23 2.17 45.4 46.0 47.1 48.6 50.5 0.27 0.46 0.63 0.78
Costa Rica 3,695 4,074 4,391 4,647 4,846 1.95 1.50 1.14 0.84 76.9 80.8 83.7 85.8 87.3 0.99 0.71 0.50 0.34
El Salvador 4,400 4,759 5,085 5,371 5,595 1.57 1.33 1.09 0.82 69.7 73.4 76.6 79.2 81.2 1.05 0.84 0.66 0.52
Guatemala 8,121 9,284 10,568 11,963 13,452 2.68 2.59 2.48 2.35 50.0 51.8 54.0 56.4 59.1 0.73 0.82 0.88 0.92
Honduras 4,943 5,672 6,421 7,169 7,892 2.75 2.48 2.20 1.92 55.2 58.4 61.4 64.3 67.0 1.13 1.02 0.92 0.82
Mexico 99,813 108,074 115,926 123,198 129,795 1.59 1.40 1.22 1.04 79.3 80.7 82.1 83.5 84.8 0.36 0.35 0.33 0.31
Nicaragua 3,521 3,787 4,071 4,387 4,709 1.45 1.45 1.49 1.41 57.9 59.0 60.5 62.3 64.3 0.38 0.49 0.58 0.66
Panama 2,647 2,935 3,230 3,528 3,824 2.06 1.92 1.77 1.61 66.7 68.4 70.3 72.2 74.2 0.51 0.53 0.55 0.55
South America 347,768 368,409 387,288 404,258 419,148 1.15 1.00 0.86 0.72 83.5 84.6 85.6 86.5 87.5 0.25 0.24 0.23 0.22
Argentina 39,728 41,920 44,010 45,994 47,853 1.07 0.97 0.88 0.79 91.5 92.1 92.7 93.2 93.8 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.11
Bolivia (Plurinational State of) 7,335 8,095 8,887 9,700 10,520 1.97 1.87 1.75 1.62 68.4 70.1 71.9 73.7 75.5 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.49
Brazil 176,654 186,217 194,452 201,296 206,743 1.05 0.87 0.69 0.53 85.8 87.1 88.2 89.3 90.2 0.30 0.27 0.23 0.21
Chile 15,517 16,206 16,850 17,446 17,962 0.87 0.78 0.69 0.58 87.4 87.7 88.2 88.8 89.5 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.16
Colombia 38,469 40,892 43,011 44,804 46,258 1.22 1.01 0.82 0.64 79.8 81.4 82.9 84.3 85.6 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.30
Ecuador 10,235 11,124 12,063 13,049 14,077 1.66 1.62 1.57 1.52 63.4 64.2 65.3 66.7 68.5 0.24 0.34 0.44 0.52
Falkland Islands (Malvinas) 2 2 2 2 2 0.76 0.53 0.34 0.19 76.3 78.5 80.4 82.0 83.4 0.58 0.48 0.40 0.33
French Guiana 227 261 296 334 373 2.78 2.55 2.38 2.21 84.5 85.8 87.0 87.9 88.8 0.31 0.26 0.22 0.19
Guyana 203 212 223 236 250 0.83 1.01 1.12 1.20 26.4 26.8 27.5 28.6 30.0 0.26 0.51 0.76 1.00
Paraguay 4,033 4,394 4,771 5,154 5,538 1.71 1.64 1.55 1.44 60.8 62.2 63.8 65.7 67.7 0.47 0.53 0.58 0.61
Peru 24,272 26,082 27,880 29,643 31,327 1.44 1.33 1.23 1.11 77.4 78.3 79.4 80.5 81.8 0.24 0.27 0.29 0.31
Suriname 365 382 399 417 435 0.90 0.88 0.86 0.83 66.1 66.1 66.7 67.6 69.0 0.03 0.16 0.28 0.39
332

2020 2025 2030 2035 2020 2025 2030 2035
Uruguay 3,262 3,338 3,405 3,461 3,506 0.46 0.40 0.33 0.26 95.0 95.5 95.9 96.3 96.6 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07
Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 27,465 29,284 31,038 32,722 34,303 1.28 1.16 1.06 0.94 88.2 88.3 88.6 89.0 89.6 0.03 0.07 0.10 0.14
NORTHERN AMERICA 290,616 304,761 319,702 334,780 349,205 0.95 0.96 0.92 0.84 81.6 82.6 83.6 84.7 85.8 0.22 0.24 0.26 0.27
Bermuda 62 61 60 59 58 - 0.44 - 0.20 - 0.26 - 0.36 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Canada 29,212 30,670 32,164 33,663 35,120 0.97 0.95 0.91 0.85 81.3 81.6 82.1 82.9 83.8 0.07 0.13 0.19 0.23
Greenland 49 50 51 51 51 0.42 0.41 0.21 0.02 86.1 87.3 88.4 89.3 90.1 0.28 0.24 0.21 0.19
Saint Pierre and Miquelon 6 6 6 6 6 0.36 0.75 0.75 0.66 89.9 90.0 90.2 90.5 91.0 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.10
United States of America 261,288 273,975 287,421 301,001 313,969 0.95 0.96 0.92 0.84 81.7 82.7 83.7 84.9 86.0 0.24 0.26 0.27 0.27
OCEANIA 26,938 28,919 30,860 32,831 34,832 1.42 1.30 1.24 1.18 68.1 68.2 68.5 68.9 69.4 0.03 0.07 0.11 0.16
Australia/New Zealand 24,381 26,095 27,724 29,319 30,867 1.36 1.21 1.12 1.03 85.8 86.3 86.9 87.7 88.5 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18
Australia 20,397 21,904 23,335 24,740 26,110 1.43 1.27 1.17 1.08 85.7 86.2 86.9 87.6 88.4 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.18
New Zealand 3,984 4,191 4,388 4,579 4,756 1.01 0.92 0.85 0.76 86.3 86.7 87.2 87.8 88.6 0.08 0.12 0.14 0.17
Melanesia 1,903 2,138 2,418 2,757 3,172 2.33 2.46 2.63 2.81 19.2 19.6 20.3 21.4 22.8 0.46 0.72 1.01 1.31
Fiji 488 529 567 601 632 1.62 1.37 1.17 0.99 54.7 57.2 59.7 62.0 64.1 0.90 0.83 0.76 0.69
New Caledonia 187 205 224 242 259 1.89 1.72 1.56 1.40 69.4 71.5 73.5 75.3 76.9 0.61 0.54 0.48 0.43
Papua New Guinea 1,031 1,168 1,351 1,592 1,909 2.51 2.91 3.28 3.63 13.0 13.3 14.1 15.2 16.8 0.51 1.04 1.55 2.03
Solomon Islands 131 160 191 225 261 3.91 3.57 3.28 3.00 22.4 24.7 26.9 29.1 31.2 1.97 1.76 1.56 1.36
Vanuatu 66 75 85 97 111 2.55 2.55 2.58 2.62 25.0 25.5 26.3 27.4 28.7 0.45 0.62 0.80 0.96
Micronesia 353 375 397 421 443 1.21 1.18 1.14 1.03 67.9 69.2 70.4 71.5 72.6 0.37 0.33 0.31 0.30
Guam 153 160 167 173 178 0.92 0.84 0.72 0.58 94.5 94.9 95.3 95.7 96.0 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.07
Kiribati 58 68 78 88 97 3.19 2.77 2.36 2.02 51.6 55.6 59.1 62.2 64.8 1.48 1.23 1.01 0.82
Marshall Islands 40 41 43 45 48 0.61 0.61 1.09 1.36 75.8 77.8 79.5 81.1 82.4 0.52 0.44 0.38 0.32
Micronesia (Fed. States of) 23 25 27 29 32 1.05 1.52 1.86 1.90 22.5 22.9 23.7 24.9 26.5 0.42 0.70 0.96 1.21
Nauru 11 11 11 11 12 - 0.06 0.18 0.22 0.13 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northern Mariana Islands 50 51 52 53 53 0.29 0.36 0.35 0.16 91.4 91.8 92.3 92.8 93.3 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.11
Palau 17 18 20 21 22 1.77 1.59 1.36 1.08 78.2 81.0 83.3 85.0 86.4 0.71 0.55 0.43 0.33
Polynesia 301 312 321 334 350 0.67 0.57 0.83 0.92 44.5 44.4 44.5 45.0 45.7 - 0.04 0.05 0.22 0.30
American Samoa 48 49 49 50 51 0.07 0.26 0.37 0.40 87.2 87.2 87.3 87.8 88.5 - 0.02 0.04 0.10 0.16
Cook Islands 13 13 14 14 14 0.37 0.52 0.48 0.40 74.4 75.5 76.6 77.8 79.1 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.32
French Polynesia 171 180 186 195 203 1.01 0.65 0.91 0.87 61.7 62.0 62.6 63.5 64.7 0.09 0.19 0.29 0.39
Niue 1 1 1 1 1 1.69 1.43 1.61 1.34 42.6 46.2 49.5 52.5 55.0 1.64 1.38 1.15 0.95
Samoa 37 36 36 37 39 - 0.47 - 0.03 0.51 1.30 18.9 17.9 17.4 17.3 17.7 - 1.11 - 0.61 - 0.07 0.47
Tokelau - - - - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tonga 25 26 27 29 31 0.71 0.99 1.36 1.67 23.3 23.1 23.3 23.8 24.8 - 0.15 0.15 0.47 0.77
Tuvalu 7 7 8 9 10 2.27 2.08 1.83 1.51 59.7 64.0 67.6 70.5 72.8 1.39 1.09 0.84 0.64
Wallis and Futuna Islands - - - - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2018). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision.
333
Statistical Annex
Table B.1: Population (%) living in households with Access to Improved Water, Improved Sanitation and Other Urban Basic Services in Urban
Areas, Selected Countries
Water Sanitation Durable housing Other basic services
Durable floor e
Basic drinking
Clean cooking
Connection to
Connection to
Connection to
Durable roof g
Durable wall f
living area h
piped water
sanitation c
sanitation
electricity
telephone
Sufficient
services b
services d
sewerage
Improved
Improved
water a
Mobile
water
Basic
fuel
County Year
Afghanistan 2011 42.9 85.2 82.9 4.5 77.9 66.1 98.0 53.8 42.7 47.3 94.4 86.8 67.0
Afghanistan 2015 30.4 92.1 74.0 9.9 69.2 55.6 89.6 61.3 29.4 49.8 94.2 93.0 81.8
Albania 2000 97.5 100.0 99.3 94.8 98.4 ... 99.5 ... ... 67.7 ... ... ...
Albania 2005 82.2 99.9 98.7 97.2 99.4 97.7 99.6 97.3 91.6 83.8 83.6 ... 70.9
Albania 2009 71.4 99.0 98.0 89.5 99.2 97.5 99.9 98.0 95.6 89.3 96.6 ... 86.1
Albania 2018 53.1 99.2 97.8 91.1 99.0 98.4 99.7 99.2 96.7 93.0 98.1 ... 90.7
Algeria 2012 76.0 94.6 ... 91.7 97.7 91.5 22.6 91.7 97.1 74.6 97.5 99.3 99.8
Angola 2006 43.0 94.9 14.7 1.4 84.0 ... 87.8 ... ... ... 45.9 66.6 86.3
Angola 2011 62.0 95.9 ... 19.3 88.7 ... 88.3 85.7 97.8 61.8 92.8 82.9 88.5
Angola 2015 52.0 86.6 58.6 11.7 87.3 60.9 76.9 72.2 98.0 64.5 86.3 66.4 80.3
Argentina 2001 96.6 99.1 ... 46.8 99.1 ... 95.8 93.5 95.5 85.3 27.6 ... 96.4
Argentina 2011 86.3 98.2 ... ... ... ... 97.6 ... ... 91.5 88.6 88.6 ...
Armenia 2000 98.1 98.4 40.9 89.7 90.1 84.3 61.8 ... ... ... ... 99.4 90.4
Armenia 2005 99.1 99.5 74.4 93.9 99.0 97.6 75.9 ... ... 87.9 45.9 99.9 99.2
Armenia 2010 97.9 99.9 95.1 95.8 98.1 97.0 83.7 98.6 99.2 92.6 93.4 99.8 99.8
Armenia 2016 98.7 100.0 98.5 95.3 96.7 96.2 88.5 93.7 99.8 94.7 98.2 100.0 99.7
Azerbaijan 2006 77.6 97.4 76.4 71.0 92.2 82.0 21.2 93.3 98.8 75.6 67.1 99.7 98.9
Bangladesh 2004 30.2 97.1 ... ... 50.1 ... 48.1 70.5 95.6 64.1 ... 77.8 33.1
Bangladesh 2007 28.8 99.6 ... 8.6 61.2 41.1 56.8 80.0 97.5 68.2 57.8 82.9 37.4
Bangladesh 2011 43.4 99.5 95.2 10.9 73.8 46.9 67.0 88.3 98.7 75.1 91.0 90.3 47.5
Bangladesh 2014 29.8 99.6 92.2 10.8 84.4 53.8 66.3 89.8 99.5 75.5 94.5 90.8 47.4
Bangladesh 2019 38.1 99.6 99.2 29.5 90.2 64.5 75.3 66.7 99.6 80.2 97.6 97.2 57.7
Barbados 2012 99.1 99.9 30.2 7.0 98.5 95.1 85.1 90.9 98.2 97.8 94.8 99.1 99.8
Belarus 2005 96.2 99.8 99.6 85.6 99.5 91.2 79.5 99.3 99.9 96.4 64.1 100.0 99.7
Belarus 2012 93.8 99.8 99.8 86.1 99.4 96.3 89.3 99.4 99.2 97.2 95.2 ... 99.8
Belize 2006 38.0 99.2 36.1 24.2 96.1 89.9 90.8 88.9 99.4 85.5 72.3 98.4 95.1
Belize 2011 26.3 99.5 99.8 22.7 98.3 92.9 70.7 90.1 98.5 89.2 94.3 96.9 96.5
Belize 2016 21.9 97.3 97.4 19.3 96.8 92.9 74.7 87.3 99.0 89.2 97.6 97.4 95.3
Benin 2001 66.8 78.0 71.6 6.1 35.9 14.4 80.8 62.6 88.7 ... ... 51.2 1.8
Benin 2006 61.7 79.4 74.1 0.1 27.2 10.0 78.1 64.4 90.3 69.1 ... 54.7 7.3
Benin 2011 62.1 84.1 79.7 ... 22.4 ... 80.8 74.4 87.0 59.5 66.7 10.7
Benin 2014 55.4 76.8 73.7 0.8 53.0 22.2 82.3 70.6 92.3 66.7 91.8 ... 7.0
Benin 2018 47.2 75.6 70.0 ... 49.0 22.5 81.1 72.8 94.4 70.3 ... 54.2 8.0
Bhutan 2010 99.3 99.6 99.4 11.2 78.5 63.4 98.4 84.1 98.3 73.4 98.4 97.5
Bolivia 2000 91.7 95.9 26.4 68.8 78.4 ... 99.2 ... ... 63.0 ... ... ...
Bolivia 2001 85.8 94.7 ... 81.3 81.3 ... ... ... ... 63.2 ... ... 86.2
Bolivia 2004 89.6 93.2 43.7 56.9 56.9 17.0 85.3 61.9 40.1 62.2 35.8 93.8 90.1
Bolivia 2008 93.8 96.9 29.5 55.2 79.7 56.0 75.1 96.2 97.8 68.6 80.2 97.6 94.1
Bosnia and Herzegovina 2006 92.8 99.6 99.5 80.1 98.5 98.0 94.4 98.5 96.5 97.5 68.6 99.7 81.5
Bosnia and Herzegovina 2012 93.1 99.7 98.8 83.3 99.2 98.6 99.8 98.8 98.9 96.7 95.8 ... 56.7
Botswana 2015 96.8 98.2 ... 36.3 74.3 ... 96.1 92.2 97.7 77.2 ... 79.2 71.4
Burkina Faso 2003 86.4 94.2 82.4 8.2 77.8 44.3 93.4 ... ... ... ... 53.9 10.1
Burkina Faso 2006 87.6 98.4 ... ... 9.5 8.7 96.7 54.6 96.6 79.3 58.7 61.9 14.3
Burkina Faso 2010 78.1 94.7 85.4 1.9 81.9 49.3 86.2 75.8 92.1 76.8 87.3 50.2 14.1
Burkina Faso 2014 79.3 94.0 70.0 1.7 92.3 51.9 83.2 74.7 96.0 76.4 96.9 59.4 25.3
Burkina Faso 2018 76.2 92.4 79.5 ... 91.4 52.1 88.6 77.5 98.6 81.3 ... 62.4 30.2
Burundi 2005 69.5 79.9 72.3 11.7 47.3 28.5 58.0 72.3 96.3 58.9 35.9 47.6 2.5
Burundi 2010 77.1 86.4 79.6 6.9 74.2 38.1 65.8 83.5 95.2 70.5 76.7 53.4 0.7
Burundi 2012 92.1 97.5 91.8 11.1 92.5 45.6 71.2 83.5 98.9 78.3 83.2 60.8 ...
Burundi 2017 89.7 98.4 89.6 3.2 81.0 46.4 72.4 90.0 98.7 80.4 87.2 61.8 0.4
Cambodia 2000 35.0 67.0 24.3 35.8 35.8 30.5 35.5 84.4 ... ... ... 62.0 16.0
Cambodia 2004 55.1 64.6 ... 75.5 77.9 ... ... ... ... 48.2 75.8 83.7 36.1
Cambodia 2010 54.9 94.7 ... 41.0 87.9 79.9 91.7 86.4 98.0 54.3 91.9 91.7 49.6
Cambodia 2014 53.5 98.2 ... 40.8 92.6 85.2 93.6 89.3 99.1 58.3 97.1 97.3 61.0
Cameroon 2004 67.7 85.5 73.9 15.7 57.2 36.6 75.9 ... ... 80.4 46.6 76.9 22.6
Cameroon 2005 68.3 86.5 ... 22.3 97.4 ... 80.2 84.6 95.1 75.2 ... 79.5 29.2
Cameroon 2006 67.6 89.4 ... 1.7 51.1 37.7 72.9 ... 94.8 80.8 59.3 82.3 24.0
Cameroon 2011 65.2 90.3 75.9 1.5 83.3 55.4 82.1 83.6 94.8 79.6 89.9 87.4 28.2
Cameroon 2014 60.1 94.3 84.8 0.3 83.7 56.0 81.2 83.7 96.4 81.2 96.3 88.3 32.3
Cameroon 2018 54.2 94.8 86.5 2.9 83.7 59.1 84.8 83.4 95.7 77.5 95.4 89.2 37.5
Central African Republic 2000 52.1 88.1 64.4 1.9 23.8 ... 37.1 93.4 71.8 99.9 ... 19.9 ...
334
Table B.1: Continued

Durable floor e
Basic drinking
Clean cooking
Connection to
Connection to
Connection to
Durable roof g
Durable wall f
living area h
piped water
sanitation c
sanitation
electricity
telephone
Sufficient
services b
services d
sewerage
Improved
Improved
water a
Mobile
water
Basic
fuel
County Year
Central African Republic 2006 56.6 88.8 65.6 0.7 65.8 42.0 33.5 97.9 74.1 99.8 25.7 25.4 1.1
Central African Republic 2010 50.2 85.3 45.9 0.1 73.4 41.7 35.3 64.5 73.8 97.8 73.6 27.2 0.4
Chad 2000 55.5 59.8 0.9 35.4 ... 79.1 ... ... 56.6 ... ... ...
Chad 2004 44.9 59.6 39.0 7.0 19.5 ... 21.3 95.4 82.2 61.9 ... 20.2 ...
Chad 2010 23.2 52.4 21.4 0.8 15.3 10.5 7.0 53.5 21.8 95.8 46.6 6.4 1.7
Chad 2014 48.7 87.5 67.9 0.0 52.5 27.7 30.3 70.7 79.5 56.8 87.9 36.6 13.2
Colombia 2000 97.8 98.5 59.7 89.0 95.5 79.0 94.5 ... ... 82.7 ... 99.4 94.4
Colombia 2005 91.9 98.1 31.1 91.0 97.8 12.7 92.8 92.5 ... 84.0 ... 99.4 95.1
Colombia 2010 91.9 98.3 45.0 90.6 98.0 89.0 61.0 93.4 ... 88.4 94.5 99.4 96.5
Colombia 2015 89.7 98.7 61.6 92.9 98.6 92.7 96.0 95.0 ... 93.5 97.8 99.8 98.5
Comoros 2012 82.7 97.6 89.5 7.4 52.8 40.4 73.8 83.2 90.5 72.1 88.8 85.2 8.7
Congo 2009 84.1 96.6 ... 6.7 76.3 17.9 92.5 71.9 98.4 75.1 91.1 53.3 19.9
Congo 2011 78.8 95.8 78.9 2.5 59.4 17.9 91.0 76.4 99.4 67.7 93.7 58.9 25.5
Congo 2014 68.7 98.6 92.5 23.7 76.0 31.5 94.1 88.6 99.4 100.0 96.9 80.2 39.2
Democratic Republic of the Congo 2000 43.5 66.1 64.4 4.1 57.4 ... 99.9 75.4 95.8 35.3 ... ... ...
Democratic Republic of the Congo 2007 60.8 80.6 57.9 14.9 53.6 21.4 49.4 ... 74.0 ... 51.1 38.9 10.8
Democratic Republic of the Congo 2010 61.8 83.1 17.4 0.9 35.9 13.9 55.5 71.4 81.6 61.6 69.9 44.7 8.7
Costa Rica 2000 98.0 99.1 ... 34.7 97.9 ... 98.2 ... ... 98.6 ... 99.2 96.1
Costa Rica 2011 99.5 99.7 99.7 31.5 97.2 95.0 93.7 91.2 97.4 94.7 94.4 99.7 98.8
Costa Rica 2018 99.1 99.8 99.8 28.9 98.6 96.2 97.9 88.5 99.5 97.1 98.3 99.9 ...
Cote d’Ivoire 2000 68.5 95.8 79.9 28.1 65.7 ... 76.8 ... ... 56.2 ... ... ...
Cote d’Ivoire 2006 69.3 96.1 16.2 6.2 84.8 40.2 97.3 92.8 97.1 99.2 62.6 88.5 27.9
Cote d’Ivoire 2012 73.3 96.5 92.1 15.0 46.7 ... 97.5 ... ... ... 94.3 89.7 ...
Cote d’Ivoire 2016 74.5 95.0 6.9 11.0 77.1 48.4 98.4 95.3 95.7 100.0 97.4 93.1 53.5
Cuba 2006 82.5 98.3 44.5 52.8 97.1 92.7 ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
Cuba 2010 84.6 98.6 91.5 56.7 96.2 92.8 ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
Cuba 2014 86.4 98.1 86.6 58.8 95.8 91.6 ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
Dominican Republic 2000 34.6 97.5 95.6 74.6 81.0 ... 97.9 92.5 99.5 81.0 ... 99.4 1.6
Dominican Republic 2002 28.7 98.8 80.2 70.4 89.0 81.9 97.1 94.9 39.3 80.7 ... 98.9 95.4
Dominican Republic 2007 18.5 99.4 97.6 78.3 96.1 86.8 98.3 95.7 47.0 86.2 78.2 98.9 95.0
Egypt 2000 98.8 99.7 81.0 55.1 58.8 57.5 95.1 ... ... 93.0 ... 99.4 95.0
Egypt 2003 99.6 99.9 92.1 63.9 64.9 64.8 96.2 ... ... 95.8 ... 99.8 98.0
Egypt 2005 98.4 99.9 86.3 67.9 69.5 68.8 97.6 ... ... 95.5 40.1 99.7 98.9
Egypt 2008 98.7 100.0 74.0 74.5 75.8 75.3 98.1 ... ... 96.4 56.4 99.9 ...
Egypt 2014 96.8 99.8 88.3 91.7 99.8 98.9 98.7 ... ... 92.2 94.9 99.9 ...
El Salvador 2007 91.7 98.1 ... 56.1 62.7 ... 86.8 92.5 65.9 80.9 69.1 94.9 2.7
El Salvador 2014 68.1 99.2 85.5 53.8 99.0 89.8 91.5 91.3 99.6 82.5 96.8 98.2 91.3
Equatorial Guinea 2000 18.8 60.4 45.8 30.6 92.3 ... 82.9 ... ... 68.6 ... ... ...
Eswatini 2006 86.6 93.3 71.1 49.2 60.4 42.6 97.4 87.8 99.0 78.2 78.1 65.2 69.5
Eswatini 2010 87.7 91.8 91.0 36.1 94.1 50.6 99.0 89.0 99.3 82.0 95.5 ... 76.0
Ethiopia 2000 80.3 85.3 57.2 2.4 4.2 2.2 33.6 ... 86.8 ... ... 77.4 1.7
Ethiopia 2005 89.5 93.5 75.8 1.4 52.3 22.6 54.6 18.1 93.8 49.9 14.5 86.1 2.5
Ethiopia 2011 85.6 94.6 69.8 2.8 45.4 18.4 49.8 19.1 94.1 58.5 67.2 83.7 4.2
Ethiopia 2016 86.8 97.6 59.1 2.8 51.5 20.3 66.5 24.9 93.3 64.4 90.1 92.4 25.9
Fiji 2007 97.2 98.7 ... ... 99.6 ... ... 73.4 ... 87.6 81.9 93.3 ...
Fiji 2014 96.9 99.3 ... 93.9 99.6 ... ... 73.1 ... ... 96.5 97.0 46.3
Gabon 2000 92.4 93.4 77.4 31.8 58.7 ... 89.9 96.7 99.1 76.1 ... 90.8 80.0
Gabon 2012 94.8 97.3 62.5 38.0 64.6 40.9 92.5 99.3 99.7 76.6 97.4 97.8 90.6
Gambia 2000 90.7 94.6 46.1 19.1 47.6 ... 81.5 69.9 96.3 75.4 ... 51.0 ...
Gambia 2006 87.5 91.2 60.0 7.7 93.3 50.7 93.9 75.0 97.6 72.4 74.5 55.2 3.0
Gambia 2010 89.8 94.8 91.2 4.9 90.9 50.5 92.5 77.7 99.3 78.3 97.1 ... 1.6
Gambia 2013 83.5 93.7 90.8 2.3 77.1 54.8 67.2 92.9 98.9 65.9 96.7 73.0 0.3
Gambia 2018 84.7 92.2 90.5 2.0 73.9 55.8 95.9 93.3 99.3 81.7 98.7 76.4 1.8
Georgia 2005 91.1 99.0 98.8 80.4 98.7 96.0 98.3 97.3 99.3 89.1 69.6 98.5 81.8
Georgia 2018 93.6 99.3 98.9 89.0 98.6 96.5 97.8 98.8 97.5 94.0 98.7 99.8 98.7
Ghana 2008 67.1 96.4 88.7 3.8 86.7 17.9 95.5 90.5 97.0 65.8 80.4 83.8 23.0
Ghana 2011 46.6 69.6 ... 2.9 72.6 18.0 94.1 95.3 82.3 70.3 91.0 81.8 24.2
Ghana 2014 41.5 96.5 86.7 12.9 85.6 20.4 98.1 89.4 98.6 68.8 93.7 90.3 35.2
335
Statistical Annex

Durable floor e
Basic drinking
Clean cooking
Connection to
Connection to
Connection to
Durable roof g
Durable wall f
living area h
piped water
sanitation c
sanitation
electricity
telephone
Sufficient
services b
services d
sewerage
Improved
Improved
water a
Mobile
water
Basic
fuel
County Year
Ghana 2016 42.6 96.0 89.3 0.9 88.5 22.7 87.7 83.7 98.5 68.4 96.1 89.9 34.0
Ghana 2018 37.6 95.8 94.2 3.8 80.7 24.6 98.2 93.6 98.4 61.6 95.7 89.9 26.9
Ghana 2019 34.8 98.4 95.8 2.8 87.5 23.1 97.4 91.0 99.2 69.9 96.9 93.7 35.2
Guatemala 2002 89.0 96.6 ... 69.2 94.4 ... 84.6 85.5 98.8 70.8 ... 94.5 3.6
Guatemala 2014 49.5 99.4 80.4 73.4 89.9 78.9 86.3 84.8 99.6 73.2 93.6 96.5 62.2
Guinea 2005 66.3 77.9 68.9 7.6 59.9 25.8 90.5 ... ... ... ... 63.1 0.6
Guinea 2012 70.2 95.2 74.2 7.5 86.1 39.5 94.1 92.4 96.8 68.9 95.6 75.4 0.6
Guinea 2016 64.3 98.4 46.1 2.7 87.4 43.3 97.3 97.4 97.2 58.8 96.7 83.4 1.6
Guinea 2018 52.9 97.4 82.9 4.6 86.4 44.5 93.6 92.1 96.4 70.5 97.6 86.6 5.7
Guinea Bissau 2000 36.4 71.5 48.0 2.8 11.6 2.3 99.8 92.6 77.5 43.8 ... ... ...
Guinea Bissau 2006 45.7 82.3 56.1 12.9 28.8 21.7 75.9 44.6 87.8 55.6 56.7 36.6 2.5
Guinea Bissau 2014 58.7 91.7 71.6 1.6 49.3 25.9 75.9 19.9 96.7 67.3 98.1 35.9 1.4
Guyana 2006 55.1 98.0 97.8 8.7 99.4 89.4 88.2 94.2 99.5 79.7 71.5 81.8 63.4
Guyana 2009 30.4 98.6 71.6 11.7 96.1 90.7 73.2 95.7 96.0 85.4 90.8 90.2 75.9
Guyana 2014 34.0 99.0 48.9 7.4 97.8 91.0 87.7 95.9 99.7 86.4 96.0 93.8 80.7
Haiti 2006 51.9 93.1 81.8 3.0 51.0 27.8 89.6 92.4 99.1 61.0 37.5 69.2 5.7
Haiti 2012 36.3 94.2 85.7 2.0 82.3 38.8 86.5 85.6 93.6 59.3 92.8 72.7 6.1
Haiti 2017 25.3 97.4 91.4 0.6 79.5 47.0 90.5 91.5 96.6 66.2 92.3 76.4 8.7
Honduras 2005 50.6 96.6 46.8 57.0 87.7 77.1 47.0 74.7 99.2 69.5 54.4 ... 65.0
Honduras 2012 39.7 98.4 50.5 60.3 91.3 80.1 50.3 76.4 99.0 75.8 93.2 ... 68.1
India 2006 69.5 96.1 85.0 28.1 77.1 54.7 80.0 89.3 92.3 53.0 38.0 93.1 59.3
India 2016 67.9 97.7 88.7 22.4 85.3 71.2 84.9 92.7 92.7 63.7 97.2 97.6 79.5
Indonesia 2002 29.3 82.8 72.8 ... 83.4 ... 86.0 77.3 96.9 ... ... 98.0 19.8
Indonesia 2007 28.4 82.1 40.6 ... 88.6 77.4 88.7 99.1 98.8 ... ... 98.2 21.5
Indonesia 2012 18.4 63.0 39.5 ... 90.7 ... 91.2 97.6 98.3 84.7 93.6 99.3 73.6
Indonesia 2017 13.8 96.6 95.9 5.1 95.1 ... 97.9 95.7 99.6 87.6 96.3 99.0 88.0
Iran 2006 84.0 92.1 ... 98.4 98.4 ... 32.5 ... ... 90.6 ... 97.7 91.0
Iraq 2006 90.0 92.4 92.4 34.6 98.2 78.8 98.5 96.0 94.6 49.5 64.8 99.6 92.8
Iraq 2011 69.5 83.5 83.2 38.8 99.2 96.2 98.1 52.5 94.8 54.1 98.9 ... 99.8
Iraq 2018 53.8 76.6 ... ... 99.6 96.4 98.1 63.5 98.7 99.9 ... ... ...
Italy 2001 93.9 99.2 ... ... 99.0 ... ... ... ... 99.5 ... ... ...
Jamaica 2005 85.5 95.9 40.1 10.7 97.2 83.2 ... ... ... ... ... ...
Jamaica 2011 88.1 99.2 77.2 14.5 98.6 87.8 88.8 85.9 99.6 90.7 97.6 95.5 89.7
Jordan 2007 71.6 99.7 ... 64.6 99.8 96.8 99.9 99.4 ... 69.1 93.5 99.0 99.9
Jordan 2009 61.2 99.8 ... 67.4 100.0 98.6 100.0 99.8 ... 74.8 98.7 99.5 99.8
Jordan 2012 52.3 99.8 ... 68.7 99.9 99.7 100.0 99.7 99.0 76.7 99.2 99.5 100.0
Jordan 2018 58.8 99.9 99.6 73.1 99.9 98.2 99.9 99.2 99.1 76.6 98.5 ... 99.9
Kazakhstan 2006 90.0 99.4 98.4 60.7 99.5 96.8 96.7 82.3 99.5 93.4 50.7 99.9 91.4
Kazakhstan 2011 92.0 99.4 98.7 63.6 99.8 96.9 97.4 88.5 96.1 100.0 94.4 ... 96.8
Kazakhstan 2015 87.4 90.7 ... 65.3 99.9 97.6 99.7 93.0 99.5 92.9 98.4 100.0 99.8
Kenya 2003 70.2 77.9 51.5 39.1 50.4 25.7 77.5 ... 89.6 66.5 ... 51.5 13.3
Kenya 2008 76.8 93.0 75.4 33.9 82.8 35.0 88.2 79.6 96.4 69.9 85.1 64.9 22.8
Kenya 2014 65.9 88.7 70.0 18.2 75.3 30.9 80.2 69.2 97.0 65.7 94.7 65.1 22.6
Kenya 2015 60.4 91.6 65.9 21.1 76.8 38.2 83.0 67.8 95.7 72.7 96.6 72.6 ...
Kiribati 2018 59.5 96.3 95.7 18.3 74.2 50.6 67.4 26.2 80.5 45.1 87.1 78.4 16.8
Kyrgyzstan 2012 92.1 96.0 94.5 35.5 98.7 91.7 81.2 72.9 76.6 88.2 97.6 99.8 93.7
Kyrgyzstan 2014 96.3 97.7 ... 35.3 99.6 94.6 98.8 71.3 99.2 83.6 99.1 99.9 89.6
Kyrgyzstan 2018 98.0 99.9 99.7 47.7 100.0 96.6 97.2 96.5 98.5 88.7 98.6 ... 92.8
Lao People’s Democratic Republic 2006 22.2 84.2 83.8 6.8 83.6 79.2 93.5 83.8 93.6 73.2 73.4 93.1 7.5
Lebanon 2011 53.4 99.9 98.2 91.0 97.8 97.6 99.7 97.6 99.7 72.4 81.9 99.8 99.7
Lesotho 2004 88.6 94.9 79.9 8.4 47.3 24.9 93.1 ... ... ... ... 28.7 65.9
Lesotho 2009 82.4 90.7 68.9 3.3 59.6 31.2 95.3 89.6 97.7 73.9 89.1 48.6 73.1
Lesotho 2014 92.8 96.3 81.1 3.7 94.1 49.3 94.0 93.2 97.5 80.4 96.5 65.1 78.5
Lesotho 2018 93.9 98.3 94.4 3.3 87.3 45.9 96.3 95.0 98.1 78.0 97.2 72.0 ...
Liberia 2011 14.5 84.6 76.0 1.2 53.2 19.4 84.0 78.1 95.1 52.2 81.7 7.9 0.4
Liberia 2013 5.0 90.2 78.0 1.7 58.2 26.3 76.7 71.7 95.5 60.6 83.8 17.0 0.2
Liberia 2016 14.9 95.1 85.6 2.0 67.7 30.1 81.3 78.1 97.0 60.8 81.4 32.0 0.4
Madagascar 2011 69.2 87.4 ... 0.2 21.2 9.2 64.7 68.5 76.9 57.7 73.7 63.7 1.6
Madagascar 2013 54.9 80.9 ... 1.3 35.2 14.8 62.3 48.7 74.1 58.4 70.0 60.5 1.8
Madagascar 2016 71.3 87.3 73.6 0.9 32.2 13.0 67.1 69.1 81.8 57.8 73.4 68.2 1.4
336

Durable floor e
Basic drinking
Clean cooking
Connection to
Connection to
Connection to
Durable roof g
Durable wall f
living area h
piped water
sanitation c
sanitation
electricity
telephone
Sufficient
services b
services d
sewerage
Improved
Improved
water a
Mobile
water
Basic
fuel
County Year
Madagascar 2018 53.2 72.5 68.9 1.5 41.2 15.1 74.8 56.1 72.7 55.8 72.1 64.4 1.9
Malawi 2012 69.3 91.9 83.0 14.2 45.1 32.8 69.3 95.0 82.1 73.9 76.7 37.1 10.3
Malawi 2014 84.4 95.9 87.7 14.1 52.2 29.1 78.3 94.0 89.0 77.2 81.3 47.4 9.9
Malawi 2014 88.7 98.6 84.9 2.4 84.9 48.8 76.9 82.9 88.3 98.3 85.6 48.0 10.4
Malawi 2016 86.0 98.2 86.7 2.8 96.0 49.3 76.1 88.1 91.8 86.2 87.8 50.4 11.9
Maldives 2009 56.9 99.3 34.1 99.2 99.9 97.5 98.8 98.4 99.6 61.3 99.6 99.9 99.3
Maldives 2017 27.1 99.6 99.5 98.2 99.8 99.1 99.4 96.4 99.2 64.5 99.0 99.7 99.6
Mali 2012 74.4 94.0 91.2 6.8 86.5 45.3 64.3 70.2 88.0 75.8 95.2 77.3 1.5
Mali 2015 81.3 96.1 92.9 2.4 89.0 57.4 74.2 84.7 93.4 71.4 98.6 85.1 0.8
Mali 2015 77.7 93.5 88.5 3.5 81.9 52.8 74.6 84.6 86.9 100.0 97.8 79.0 2.2
Mali 2018 76.9 95.3 92.4 5.2 85.1 44.8 79.0 84.6 93.2 74.7 97.0 85.7 1.3
Mauritania 2007 46.4 95.2 87.9 2.3 68.1 54.3 73.0 83.1 46.0 48.3 83.8 73.4 60.7
Mauritania 2011 58.0 97.5 85.4 4.3 73.7 53.0 67.3 83.0 82.7 51.1 95.9 79.2 93.5
Mauritania 2015 67.0 97.4 88.7 5.3 74.4 65.6 77.1 79.3 78.0 54.2 96.9 ... 64.1
Mexico 2000 94.9 96.7 ... 81.4 88.3 ... 92.6 94.2 78.0 76.2 ... 98.4 93.6
Mexico 2005 95.0 97.9 ... 82.7 93.7 ... 93.6 ... ... 77.6 ... 98.1 ...
Mexico 2015 17.8 99.7 99.6 91.3 99.0 94.9 98.1 98.0 86.4 84.0 93.2 99.5 ...
Moldova 2005 73.3 98.9 ... 67.1 91.6 84.7 88.1 99.5 99.1 95.9 57.4 99.5 99.0
Moldova 2012 70.1 95.7 94.4 66.4 95.2 84.5 76.9 98.0 99.8 96.2 89.9 99.8 99.3
Mongolia 2005 40.6 95.6 88.4 32.7 95.4 64.4 19.3 48.2 46.4 51.5 60.2 98.4 36.2
Mongolia 2010 36.0 95.2 89.9 23.6 97.6 64.5 25.8 65.9 27.3 74.8 97.0 96.0 39.4
Mongolia 2013 43.7 91.7 ... 32.6 92.7 64.1 44.7 58.0 71.5 86.2 99.4 97.9 63.2
Mongolia 2018 41.0 98.0 94.4 40.8 98.6 78.1 60.1 65.6 74.4 75.1 99.7 99.8 67.7
Montenegro 2005 96.9 97.2 97.2 66.5 98.2 95.5 90.0 95.6 91.6 82.0 79.4 92.7 80.8
Montenegro 2013 92.6 100.0 98.6 63.4 98.3 97.2 96.5 95.3 97.7 91.9 99.0 99.6 66.4
Montenegro 2018 94.5 100.0 99.7 59.7 99.2 98.1 99.8 97.3 99.3 88.6 100.0 99.9 ...
Morocco 2004 96.1 98.0 ... 98.0 98.6 91.3 92.6 ... ... 78.5 ... 94.8 99.1
Mozambique 2009 63.2 79.8 ... 4.2 54.0 42.4 58.4 68.1 63.8 82.7 60.0 47.7 6.0
Mozambique 2011 71.7 84.8 67.9 0.0 47.4 39.3 57.9 49.0 69.9 78.7 71.8 59.3 9.4
Mozambique 2015 76.5 92.2 84.8 26.0 47.3 40.3 68.9 59.4 79.1 76.0 84.3 73.2 2.8
Mozambique 2018 78.9 89.4 84.2 2.9 69.5 59.5 69.2 71.2 80.2 84.8 87.1 72.2 13.5
Myanmar 2016 11.3 93.3 82.0 0.9 78.9 67.6 54.5 52.3 93.6 67.2 94.2 92.8 57.7
Namibia 2000 97.9 98.1 88.3 78.7 80.6 57.1 86.2 ... ... 73.2 ... 74.6 73.8
Namibia 2007 96.5 97.4 84.2 73.1 80.2 61.9 83.3 81.8 81.1 77.8 79.5 78.4 76.3
Namibia 2013 96.6 97.9 85.7 63.6 73.8 53.5 78.5 91.1 92.6 80.4 95.9 74.1 72.0
Nepal 2006 47.7 95.7 92.3 20.4 77.0 42.5 68.1 79.1 93.9 67.9 23.6 89.8 43.4
Nepal 2012 53.0 96.3 94.7 26.5 87.8 58.0 76.6 82.6 96.6 81.2 92.8 96.9 64.1
Nepal 2014 61.0 98.5 96.9 24.9 93.7 62.7 80.2 83.6 97.6 84.3 97.7 97.4 76.2
Nepal 2016 50.3 95.9 94.6 11.2 86.3 64.9 50.2 58.5 53.4 83.1 95.8 94.6 44.1
Nicaragua 2001 90.3 95.9 47.0 29.2 71.8 66.9 67.4 61.7 98.9 54.3 11.8 94.3 56.1
Niger 2006 90.8 93.4 84.2 6.9 40.9 24.7 60.1 ... ... 51.8 40.5 50.5 3.1
Niger 2012 94.1 97.0 72.1 2.8 77.9 40.2 72.2 40.8 56.7 54.8 84.8 62.7 3.9
Nigeria 2013 15.7 89.8 74.9 8.6 76.9 42.7 85.0 86.0 96.5 66.5 89.1 83.0 4.6
Nigeria 2015 17.1 92.6 84.3 14.3 75.8 48.1 87.4 88.8 93.0 66.7 91.2 82.0 9.1
Nigeria 2016 16.9 91.4 83.4 11.5 77.6 49.4 84.1 89.8 96.3 65.0 91.0 86.3 16.9
Nigeria 2018 14.3 90.9 86.4 6.1 73.8 44.2 85.7 89.6 98.1 66.5 95.6 81.7 22.5
Occupied Palestinian Territory 2010 54.3 99.1 ... 62.0 99.5 91.3 99.3 ... ... 85.8 20.7 ... 99.2
Occupied Palestinian Territory 2014 57.0 98.4 ... 62.0 99.7 98.5 99.9 99.3 99.9 73.7 48.7 99.9 97.8
Pakistan 2012 58.9 98.7 85.6 68.6 95.1 87.3 91.9 95.8 92.4 42.2 95.6 99.8 85.2
Pakistan 2014 27.3 87.8 ... 40.3 81.6 72.7 82.1 88.3 81.3 54.0 87.2 90.0 69.5
Pakistan 2018 44.5 90.5 87.4 64.9 95.5 88.8 92.0 95.2 92.1 47.4 97.9 99.4 87.8
Panama 2010 96.3 97.8 ... 44.4 77.2 73.3 94.3 94.4 89.6 80.7 91.7 97.0 95.0
Panama 2013 98.0 99.9 88.6 45.4 96.0 88.3 95.8 99.9 100.0 86.1 95.8 98.5 ...
Papua New Guinea 2018 57.1 83.8 82.4 32.8 62.5 52.4 89.6 70.5 89.2 64.1 90.6 57.1 39.4
Paraguay 2002 68.4 86.6 ... 15.8 84.1 ... 87.3 78.4 95.8 77.2 44.0 95.4 65.3
Paraguay 2016 71.6 98.6 71.5 14.8 95.7 91.8 93.1 94.6 99.3 87.7 98.4 99.9 82.8
Peru 2004 92.4 95.2 93.6 83.9 89.6 78.6 78.4 74.1 90.7 78.9 ... 96.5 74.6
Peru 2007 81.6 90.6 ... ... 89.5 ... 49.2 84.9 ... 86.3 54.3 89.4 73.5
Peru 2012 86.6 95.5 94.5 80.5 89.6 80.0 79.3 70.7 92.2 84.2 92.5 98.4 86.8
Philippines 2003 66.7 98.4 92.1 92.2 93.8 ... 73.9 ... ... ... 52.2 92.2 ...
Philippines 2008 42.9 98.2 89.3 3.5 93.8 75.3 82.3 79.9 95.0 61.9 83.1 93.8 52.2
Philippines 2013 35.5 98.4 92.6 6.9 94.1 73.8 84.3 80.6 95.7 63.2 92.4 94.2 56.0
337
Statistical Annex

Durable floor e
Basic drinking
Clean cooking
Connection to
Connection to
Connection to
Durable roof g
Durable wall f
living area h
piped water
sanitation c
sanitation
electricity
telephone
Sufficient
services b
services d
sewerage
Improved
Improved
water a
Mobile
water
Basic
fuel
County Year
Philippines 2017 31.2 98.4 97.5 7.0 95.1 79.0 91.8 77.6 97.5 66.7 94.5 96.4 70.3
Rwanda 2010 65.0 89.2 63.7 3.8 88.1 56.3 58.5 69.1 98.7 83.0 76.1 47.3 0.2
Rwanda 2013 73.4 97.6 72.4 0.0 85.8 53.6 62.4 77.2 99.7 86.8 84.6 61.9 0.9
Rwanda 2015 81.4 90.4 69.4 7.4 86.6 49.7 70.4 69.5 99.8 87.4 88.4 73.9 1.3
Rwanda 2017 74.9 95.6 88.2 5.2 94.1 53.6 73.8 76.2 99.2 91.8 89.7 84.9 6.8
Saint Lucia 2012 75.6 99.8 86.2 11.0 93.2 89.1 86.0 68.1 99.4 96.0 94.3 96.4 96.8
São Tomé and Príncipe 2009 96.3 99.3 81.2 6.0 49.5 42.6 95.2 ... ... 78.0 60.7 72.8 0.6
São Tomé and Príncipe 2014 6.9 97.8 86.5 21.4 53.2 44.6 40.2 97.7 99.7 79.7 87.2 78.8 2.3
Senegal 2016 85.0 93.7 45.2 11.3 89.7 65.7 92.9 92.3 98.4 75.9 98.2 89.8 49.0
Senegal 2017 88.2 94.8 93.7 21.8 92.5 69.3 93.5 93.9 94.4 71.8 98.9 91.7 47.4
Senegal 2018 84.6 95.3 93.9 19.9 94.6 72.9 95.1 93.3 97.8 74.1 98.8 93.6 54.9
Senegal 2019 82.4 94.8 94.1 12.7 95.1 73.0 96.3 94.7 99.1 74.4 99.4 95.3 46.6
Serbia 2005 91.3 99.7 99.2 83.7 97.3 94.9 93.0 94.3 97.4 92.2 83.5 ... 84.2
Serbia 2010 85.0 99.7 99.2 85.5 99.8 98.7 98.3 95.9 98.4 95.8 94.4 ... 85.6
Serbia 2014 85.3 99.6 98.4 83.3 99.3 98.2 99.7 99.2 98.5 96.7 96.8 99.8 82.3
Sierra Leone 2013 44.6 88.9 71.2 0.7 76.7 21.9 81.8 78.9 95.5 60.7 86.0 41.7 0.2
Sierra Leone 2016 37.9 91.4 81.1 1.2 76.8 28.1 78.5 86.7 93.6 62.5 90.4 43.9 0.7
Sierra Leone 2017 30.1 86.7 ... 2.0 72.9 27.0 85.1 80.6 99.0 75.3 89.4 45.5 0.9
Sierra Leone 2018 30.1 86.7 76.7 2.4 74.0 27.0 87.3 80.6 99.1 74.3 99.9 47.8 1.2
Somalia 2006 52.9 80.4 66.0 20.6 77.5 49.3 65.1 57.4 84.2 54.9 33.3 41.8 0.3
South Africa 2016 97.4 99.6 98.4 81.5 97.7 77.9 98.7 94.1 97.8 83.4 97.3 93.7 90.7
Sudan 2010 61.5 96.4 95.3 3.0 60.2 46.8 22.1 47.3 37.0 54.4 88.3 ... 56.5
Sudan 2014 65.4 94.8 78.9 2.1 68.8 56.4 26.8 50.2 52.9 55.9 88.1 73.0 48.5
Suriname 2000 91.2 98.2 2.5 84.3 99.1 79.7 99.3 ... ... ... ... ... ...
Suriname 2006 81.5 98.2 12.6 0.6 98.0 89.9 83.0 97.9 99.3 88.6 81.5 95.2 89.7
Suriname 2010 81.3 99.1 49.1 1.7 97.8 87.7 85.8 98.2 99.6 90.1 96.5 97.3 93.7
Suriname 2018 80.1 99.2 99.1 2.5 98.7 93.6 86.3 94.2 99.4 89.4 99.9 98.9 96.1
Syria 2006 87.6 94.1 ... 91.5 94.4 91.3 93.9 92.6 94.5 78.7 61.5 94.5 99.8
Tajikistan 2005 89.8 94.7 ... 55.3 97.9 89.4 86.8 74.4 91.1 82.5 26.3 99.7 89.3
Tajikistan 2012 90.0 95.0 93.2 47.6 98.5 93.1 92.9 81.3 98.2 77.1 96.2 99.8 94.8
Tajikistan 2017 91.7 98.6 98.0 50.2 99.7 96.0 94.3 85.6 99.1 80.0 96.9 99.2 97.0
United Republic of Tanzania 2010 58.5 76.8 60.0 1.4 48.6 29.5 76.7 48.6 93.0 77.8 80.9 46.9 4.7
Thailand 2005 39.8 99.0 98.9 9.3 99.8 95.0 80.0 97.1 99.2 87.0 89.2 99.7 80.4
Thailand 2015 37.6 99.7 99.6 11.2 99.6 97.6 71.8 96.3 99.2 84.8 70.5 99.3 84.6
Thailand 2016 37.6 98.7 98.6 10.8 99.6 96.8 85.2 97.6 99.6 90.4 98.2 99.7 84.6
Timor-Leste 2009 63.2 88.6 85.7 19.9 82.9 65.9 70.3 62.9 93.0 71.0 75.6 84.4 8.3
Timor-Leste 2016 55.8 97.0 94.6 0.0 88.9 76.8 85.0 69.1 95.1 79.1 97.5 98.4 21.9
Togo 2010 55.1 87.3 ... 0.4 73.1 28.0 95.2 93.2 97.0 71.1 86.1 76.0 5.6
Togo 2013 49.5 91.4 89.1 0.1 78.5 28.0 96.6 91.2 98.8 68.0 92.6 84.1 12.4
Togo 2017 51.3 90.9 89.0 1.2 80.4 28.0 97.5 95.1 98.8 69.4 96.8 88.8 15.9
Trinidad and Tobago 2000 83.0 92.7 9.4 31.3 71.0 62.9 ... 96.8 ... 89.0 ... ... ...
Trinidad and Tobago 2006 83.4 95.7 35.1 19.1 98.7 92.1 80.2 92.1 99.5 94.4 91.2 97.5 99.6
Trinidad and Tobago 2011 84.4 99.5 99.2 31.8 98.4 93.2 84.6 94.7 98.0 94.1 98.0 ... 99.9
Tunisia 2011 69.6 99.9 99.6 82.3 99.8 97.8 99.7 99.9 99.7 90.5 97.6 ... 99.9
Tunisia 2018 39.5 99.0 98.3 82.7 99.7 98.5 99.9 99.4 99.7 93.1 100.0 99.9 99.8
Turkey 2004 68.9 94.6 12.9 91.3 96.9 95.5 87.7 ... ... 83.1 76.4 ... ...
Turkey 2013 57.0 99.6 98.5 96.5 99.4 98.6 96.9 ... ... 90.1 98.3 ... ...
Turkmenistan 2006 82.9 99.9 99.9 48.9 99.8 92.4 88.0 98.5 96.8 89.8 14.7 99.9 ...
Turkmenistan 2019 54.2 100.0 100.0 52.1 99.4 97.8 100.0 99.2 99.9 91.3 100.0 99.9 ...
Uganda 2011 67.6 94.0 79.6 9.1 78.2 25.9 79.4 73.6 91.4 62.1 86.9 54.8 3.8
Uganda 2014 62.4 90.6 84.1 2.8 70.0 31.6 67.4 67.7 91.9 63.8 89.3 50.9 1.5
Uganda 2016 50.5 91.5 78.1 2.6 70.0 31.8 72.1 73.9 90.3 67.8 91.2 57.7 2.1
Uganda 2019 49.5 87.7 75.5 1.1 70.0 37.9 72.3 73.2 93.2 64.4 92.5 70.5 2.6
Ukraine 2005 91.1 99.4 98.8 96.0 98.8 97.6 83.5 99.7 99.7 97.0 71.8 100.0 98.0
Ukraine 2007 82.0 99.6 ... 69.9 99.2 95.8 71.5 96.8 97.8 98.0 82.4 99.9 97.9
Ukraine 2012 82.8 99.8 99.1 74.9 99.8 98.2 82.0 97.8 99.8 98.6 97.3 ... 97.5
Uruguay 2006 92.3 99.5 ... 52.9 97.6 ... 91.0 98.0 86.6 92.1 57.0 98.7 93.3
Uruguay 2011 90.7 95.4 ... 53.8 93.7 ... 95.5 94.3 94.8 92.5 88.1 95.5 93.7
Uruguay 2013 94.3 99.9 93.8 59.5 98.4 94.4 95.8 94.8 98.1 93.9 94.8 99.0 99.8
338
Durable floor e
Basic drinking
Clean cooking
Connection to
Connection to
Connection to
Durable roof g
Durable wall f
living area h
piped water
sanitation c
sanitation
electricity
telephone
Sufficient
services b
services d
sewerage
Improved
Improved
water a
Mobile
water
Basic
fuel
County Year
Uzbekistan 2006 98.4 99.8 ... 45.9 99.9 97.7 99.0 99.0 98.8 89.5 22.0 99.7 99.1
Vanuatu 2007 63.3 97.9 96.0 ... 91.2 59.7 93.4 93.0 97.1 76.5 75.9 85.4 43.7
Venezuela 2000 87.3 93.0 92.1 69.2 87.9 90.9 100.0 96.5 99.5 80.2 ... ... 97.2
Venezuela 2001 89.9 98.0 ... 73.3 89.7 ... 95.3 89.4 91.3 79.4 ... 97.9 97.7
Viet Nam 2002 76.4 96.9 25.8 82.8 86.5 ... 94.8 ... 97.5 71.8 ... 99.4 ...
Viet Nam 2005 63.7 98.3 ... 80.8 86.9 83.3 96.2 94.4 98.6 80.5 ... 99.6 67.4
Viet Nam 2006 59.1 99.0 97.7 2.7 89.6 84.8 94.2 93.4 98.6 89.0 57.0 99.4 71.5
Viet Nam 2010 54.9 98.7 98.6 3.9 93.8 88.9 97.8 94.2 99.4 88.3 94.1 ... 81.4
Viet Nam 2013 53.4 98.6 98.5 2.1 92.0 89.4 99.1 95.4 99.4 84.5 97.1 99.9 78.3
Yemen 2006 53.9 74.8 ... 39.7 92.6 90.4 82.3 ... ... 50.7 61.6 95.5 95.4
Yemen 2013 42.0 96.7 27.6 64.5 90.6 86.3 94.2 92.4 37.6 56.0 95.0 98.6 93.9
Zambia 2002 82.7 90.4 84.4 46.9 49.0 37.3 80.1 ... ... ... ... 50.2 41.7
Zambia 2007 76.3 82.2 79.7 28.4 72.0 44.2 84.4 91.0 92.3 63.7 68.1 52.4 41.5
Zambia 2013 73.3 89.3 83.2 24.9 73.3 39.3 85.7 92.4 92.7 69.5 91.4 62.9 25.1
Zambia 2018 71.4 91.2 87.4 17.2 79.2 40.9 88.0 84.2 95.8 69.3 91.8 70.9 18.1
Zimbabwe 2005 97.5 99.6 99.0 85.7 98.2 65.1 99.1 99.2 99.6 79.3 38.8 92.1 88.4
Zimbabwe 2009 76.7 98.1 95.0 85.2 97.7 20.6 97.6 97.9 98.8 78.6 61.5 ... 84.2
Zimbabwe 2010 76.7 95.6 93.1 76.4 93.8 49.9 97.0 97.8 98.8 76.8 92.1 84.7 74.3
Zimbabwe 2015 65.0 97.4 93.6 75.5 95.6 52.3 97.2 97.5 99.1 81.5 97.4 81.3 73.0
Zimbabwe 2019 65.5 97.3 91.7 84.5 98.4 43.0 98.9 98.3 98.9 84.2 99.9 90.1 82.8
Notes:
a Improved drinking water sources include: piped water into dwelling, plot or yard; public tap/stand pipe; protected spring; rainwater collection; bottled water (if secondary source is also improved); bore hole/tube well; and,
protected dug well.
b Basic drinking water services are defined as drinking water from an improved water source whose collection time is no more than 30 minutes for a round trip incluidng queuing.
c Improved sanitation facilities include : flush/pour-flush toilets or latrines connected to a sewer, septic tank or pit; ventilated improved pit latrine; pit latrine with a slab or platform which covers the pit entirely; and, composting
toilets/latrines.
d Basic sanitation services are improved facilities that not shared with other households.
e Durable floor is floor made of the following materials: parquet, carpet, cement, bricks, tablets, mat, adobe, etc.
f Durable wall is wall made of finished materials such as covered adobe, bricks, cement blocks, wood planks, etc.
g Durable roof is roof made of finished materials such as metal, wood, ceramic tiles, cement, roofing shingles, etc.
h Proportion of population living in households in which not more than three people share the same habitable room.
Source: United Nations Human Settlement Programme (UN-Habitat), Global Urban Indicators Database 2020.
339
Statistical Annex
Table B.2: Population (%) living in households with Access to Improved Water, Improved Sanitation and Other Urban Basic Services in
Selected Cities
Basic sanitation
water services b
Sufficient living
Durable floor e
Basic drinking
Clean cooking
Connection to
Connection to
Connection to
Durable roof g
Durable wall f
piped water
sanitation c
electricity
telephone
services d
sewerage
Improved
Improved
water a
Mobile
area h
fuel
County City Year
Afghanistan Kabul 2011 38.0 95.2 92.3 2.0 67.1 48.4 99.1 60.7 37.9 37.4 97.2 89.2 88.5
Afghanistan Kandahar 2011 55.9 99.2 99.2 16.0 89.8 81.1 92.1 65.8 57.1 87.1 92.1 93.7 56.0
Afghanistan Kunduz 2011 21.0 57.0 55.5 1.0 83.7 78.5 99.4 47.1 77.8 29.6 93.5 70.6 28.5
Afghanistan Kabul 2015 32.4 95.4 85.8 16.6 78.7 60.8 82.6 69.9 42.2 49.2 94.7 96.5 97.9
Afghanistan Kandahar 2015 10.2 97.5 39.3 6.7 64.0 56.7 98.3 46.9 23.4 60.1 97.7 86.2 84.6
Albania Tirana 2009 60.4 98.9 97.5 99.0 100.0 98.6 100.0 99.8 99.2 90.6 97.9 100.0 97.3
Albania Tirana 2018 21.4 99.4 97.5 97.6 99.1 98.1 99.9 99.7 99.3 93.7 99.1 ... 97.9
Angola Luanda 2006 49.6 100.0 16.4 0.5 93.8 ... 97.2 ... ... 100.0 40.3 74.3 97.6
Angola Luanda 2011 55.9 99.1 ... 19.3 94.5 95.7 95.6 98.3 59.5 97.0 88.4 96.1
Angola Benguela 2015 73.2 86.7 55.3 4.5 77.8 47.5 72.9 66.8 98.7 56.3 84.4 56.4 75.2
Angola Huambo 2015 44.7 83.7 45.7 8.7 89.1 60.7 65.3 44.6 97.6 51.8 69.5 46.3 73.5
Angola Luanda 2015 56.1 95.9 71.2 12.8 97.3 71.8 94.5 96.2 99.2 67.5 94.9 82.3 97.1
Argentina Buenos Aires 2011 70.7 97.6 ... ... ... ... 98.3 ... ... 92.0 89.9 89.9 ...
Argentina Catamarca 2011 98.3 99.8 ... ... ... ... 96.0 ... ... 89.1 86.2 86.2 ...
Argentina Córdoba 2011 93.8 99.6 ... ... ... ... 98.7 ... ... 93.3 85.0 85.0 ...
Argentina Corrientes 2011 96.1 99.2 ... ... ... ... 95.4 ... ... 84.5 91.0 91.0 ...
Argentina Formosa 2011 88.7 91.7 ... ... ... ... 91.7 ... ... 84.1 89.2 89.2 ...
Argentina La Rioja 2011 98.4 98.7 ... ... ... ... 97.0 ... ... 85.8 92.5 92.5 ...
Argentina Neuquén 2011 99.0 99.7 ... ... ... ... 99.5 ... ... 92.2 95.2 95.2 ...
Argentina Salta 2011 98.0 98.2 ... ... ... ... 89.7 ... ... 80.2 76.5 76.5 ...
Argentina San Juan 2011 98.7 99.4 ... ... ... ... 94.9 ... ... 85.7 90.7 90.7 ...
Argentina Santiago Del Estero 2011 97.6 99.2 ... ... ... ... 93.0 ... ... 90.2 90.9 90.9 ...
Armenia Yerevan 2000 99.4 99.4 30.9 92.1 92.7 84.4 68.4 ... ... ... ... 99.4 96.5
Armenia Yerevan 2005 99.5 99.5 11.7 98.8 99.7 97.9 86.0 ... ... 87.0 89.9 99.9 99.9
Armenia Yerevan 2010 99.8 100.0 ... 99.3 99.7 98.4 90.5 99.1 99.4 91.6 94.0 99.7 99.9
Armenia Yerevan 2016 99.9 99.9 ... 98.1 99.0 98.4 94.8 94.3 99.7 94.8 98.0 ... ...
Azerbaijan Baku 2006 88.7 99.5 81.6 88.1 98.4 85.1 29.0 97.5 99.8 79.6 77.5 99.5 99.9
Bangladesh Dhaka 2004 14.1 99.3 ... ... 30.6 ... 38.2 77.3 99.6 57.6 ... 92.2 23.1
Bangladesh Rajshahi 2004 ... ... ... ... 29.2 ... 22.7 43.0 93.7 63.6 ... 38.1 3.1
Bangladesh Dhaka 2006 49.9 99.7 99.2 21.6 56.4 38.6 64.1 51.7 98.4 63.0 52.2 88.6 51.2
Bangladesh Dhaka 2007 66.1 100.0 ... 22.2 57.9 35.5 83.0 94.6 100.0 56.6 67.1 97.0 71.0
Bangladesh Rajshahi 2007 28.9 99.5 ... 4.2 66.1 40.9 42.1 65.5 99.5 78.7 50.4 73.7 9.7
Bangladesh Dhaka 2013 52.6 99.9 99.8 34.4 84.2 51.9 78.5 67.2 99.7 71.0 96.7 94.5 66.8
Belarus Vitebsk 2005 88.3 99.9 99.5 76.3 98.0 91.7 58.6 98.1 100.0 97.9 61.4 100.0 98.9
Belarus Vitebsk 2012 95.6 99.9 99.8 83.9 99.4 96.9 91.7 99.9 99.7 98.3 92.9 ... 99.3
Belize Belize City 2006 27.9 99.7 32.0 45.4 97.2 90.7 89.2 83.9 99.4 87.1 72.5 99.0 97.2
Belize Corozal 2006 ... 96.7 45.8 0.0 98.6 92.6 95.8 93.5 ... 94.9 77.2 99.5 94.9
Belize Belize City 2011 30.5 99.8 99.3 47.4 95.1 89.7 50.3 82.5 99.7 89.9 94.1 97.1 99.2
Belize Belize City South SIde 2016 23.1 95.0 96.3 46.0 96.6 92.6 53.9 71.8 99.1 86.3 97.4 98.3 98.2
Belize Corozal 2016 2.0 96.1 97.3 5.4 99.2 96.6 94.0 94.4 99.7 89.1 96.0 97.7 94.0
Benin Cotonou 2001 99.9 100.0 98.2 12.4 80.2 26.0 97.8 87.8 98.8 ... ... 77.5 4.7
Benin Djouguo 2006 63.8 91.1 84.2 ... 39.1 20.5 77.7 63.1 94.0 66.1 36.3 51.7 0.8
Benin Porto-Novo 2006 65.2 76.5 85.6 ... 43.8 14.1 93.9 83.6 93.2 65.8 60.0 68.4 11.3
Benin Cotonou 2011 92.1 98.7 98.7 ... 25.1 ... 95.4 93.8 90.2 60.7 ... 91.5 23.7
Benin Cotonou 2018 96.5 98.3 98.3 ... 85.5 34.3 95.7 89.2 99.1 68.5 ... 86.9 28.2
Benin Djouguo 2018 32.8 93.9 84.8 ... 65.3 39.5 85.9 80.3 98.9 65.9 ... 57.5 1.7
Benin Porto-Novo 2018 59.0 85.0 80.8 ... 57.5 28.6 95.1 85.1 90.2 74.9 ... 58.6 9.8
Bolivia Cobija 2004 86.5 86.5 21.4 40.0 40.0 8.2 44.3 99.2 25.0 65.9 36.3 85.7 92.2
Bolivia Cochabamba 2004 83.1 97.6 60.2 65.8 65.8 15.9 92.7 64.4 35.6 72.2 32.8 97.2 94.6
Bolivia La Paz 2004 87.7 90.1 43.1 54.7 54.7 19.0 79.1 43.7 8.8 59.7 33.2 94.3 91.7
Bolivia Oruro 2004 93.2 94.2 66.6 58.8 58.8 20.2 92.3 20.8 14.1 59.4 25.0 96.7 96.7
Bolivia Potosí 2004 96.3 96.4 61.8 71.5 71.5 29.6 89.7 12.3 22.5 57.3 18.8 97.2 98.4
Bolivia Santa Cruz 2004 95.6 96.0 42.5 48.3 48.3 11.4 89.1 90.5 73.1 60.4 48.5 92.1 87.2
Bolivia Sucre 2004 96.3 97.2 52.3 83.7 83.7 29.5 94.2 48.5 64.1 65.6 25.9 95.0 93.0
Bolivia Tarija 2004 96.8 97.4 32.1 72.2 72.2 27.7 90.4 77.3 47.2 65.3 34.2 92.2 88.5
Bolivia Trinidad 2004 59.5 65.2 24.2 33.8 33.8 5.5 46.0 72.1 55.9 52.7 23.0 82.2 63.0
Bolivia Cobija 2008 85.5 87.1 5.3 31.2 78.1 62.2 44.9 37.2 96.0 75.9 88.2 96.2 92.4
Bolivia Cochabamba 2008 83.0 98.1 76.9 63.7 82.4 61.4 89.6 99.4 98.8 72.7 77.8 98.6 94.0
Bolivia La Paz 2008 97.8 97.9 0.0 75.4 82.7 56.6 53.1 99.8 99.7 71.0 80.6 98.7 97.5
Bolivia Oruro 2008 96.3 97.3 43.3 65.1 68.8 48.2 67.5 99.4 98.2 67.5 73.7 96.9 98.2
Bolivia Potosí 2008 97.6 97.8 11.3 78.6 81.2 51.2 71.1 99.4 97.8 61.7 76.4 97.8 98.9
340

Basic sanitation
water services b
Sufficient living
Durable floor e
Basic drinking
Clean cooking
Connection to
Connection to
Connection to
Durable roof g
Durable wall f
piped water
sanitation c
electricity
telephone
services d
sewerage
Improved
Improved
water a
Mobile
area h
fuel
County City Year
Bolivia Santa Cruz 2008 98.9 99.0 ... 22.7 78.1 55.2 92.7 95.0 97.6 65.9 86.4 97.6 92.9
Bolivia Sucre 2008 93.4 98.5 64.6 71.6 73.0 50.0 85.9 100.0 98.2 67.2 68.7 97.3 91.4
Bolivia Tarija 2008 99.5 99.7 38.4 74.3 88.6 62.9 93.0 97.8 99.2 75.5 84.3 95.7 93.3
Bolivia Trinidad 2008 63.2 66.4 6.5 18.4 67.2 48.2 44.4 59.8 81.0 56.7 65.6 90.5 71.4
Bosnia and Herzegovina Sarajevo 2006 97.3 99.6 99.6 92.3 98.2 98.2 82.5 98.2 96.8 97.7 73.1 100.0 95.4
Bosnia and Herzegovina Tuzla 2006 72.8 72.8 ... 89.8 99.7 99.6 ... ... ... 98.1 67.9 ... 96.3
Bosnia and Herzegovina Sarajevo 2012 100.0 100.0 100.0 98.3 99.2 98.2 99.9 99.8 100.0 99.2 95.7 ... 85.1
Bosnia and Herzegovina Tuzla 2012 81.0 100.0 97.1 93.2 100.0 99.5 99.7 96.6 100.0 93.9 97.9 ... 63.3
Botswana Francistown 2015 98.8 99.0 ... 59.7 80.2 ... 99.0 93.7 99.0 86.6 ... 77.8 76.7
Botswana Gaborone 2015 94.7 96.2 58.7 86.9 ... 95.8 94.2 95.8 87.1 ... 85.7 94.4
Burkina Faso Ouagadougou 2003 96.0 98.7 83.4 14.3 78.5 52.2 96.5 ... ... ... ... 57.1 16.0
Burkina Faso Ouagadougou 2006 83.8 99.0 ... ... 16.7 15.2 98.3 51.5 99.6 81.1 65.9 66.3 24.1
Burkina Faso Ouagadougou 2010 93.6 99.1 91.3 2.7 95.3 68.3 89.6 82.4 97.9 73.1 92.4 58.1 25.1
Burkina Faso Ouagadougou 2014 95.6 95.6 79.2 3.4 99.0 67.4 85.3 82.4 96.1 74.6 97.7 62.1 45.8
Burkina Faso Ouagadougou 2018 93.9 97.3 90.3 ... 96.9 58.2 90.6 90.3 99.9 84.4 ... 72.6 56.7
Burundi Bujumbura 2012 97.5 97.8 91.9 17.5 92.9 38.9 78.6 88.2 ... 74.3 88.9 69.5 0.0
Cambodia Phnom Penh 2000 76.8 98.0 88.3 82.5 82.5 72.3 80.0 98.5 ... ... ... 98.2 38.1
Cambodia Siem Reap 2000 ... 58.4 34.4 24.7 24.7 21.6 21.0 82.7 ... ... ... 54.8 5.0
Cambodia Phnom Penh 2004 81.1 83.3 ... 86.6 87.5 ... ... ... ... 51.8 83.6 92.7 56.9
Cambodia Siem Reap 2004 17.5 21.3 ... 70.1 71.9 ... ... ... ... 40.1 76.7 77.8 28.3
Cameroon Douala 2006 77.0 98.7 ... 5.2 63.5 48.3 75.8 0.0 99.3 84.9 80.3 99.2 48.6
Cameroon Yaoundé 2006 94.6 98.4 ... 1.6 59.1 41.8 81.5 0.0 98.5 78.8 84.9 99.3 52.5
Cameroon Douala 2011 62.4 99.0 90.3 0.9 96.2 61.0 92.6 98.4 99.9 81.8 97.3 97.8 45.2
Cameroon Yaoundé 2011 84.3 98.1 85.7 2.8 91.1 51.9 93.5 86.3 98.2 81.0 95.3 99.2 56.7
Cameroon Bafoussam 2018 49.1 90.2 84.1 1.1 92.0 66.2 86.4 85.1 99.7 85.6 97.6 95.7 18.4
Cameroon Garoua 2018 42.3 89.7 83.0 1.4 83.3 72.3 77.7 79.4 93.2 73.8 91.1 67.7 7.6
Cameroon Yaoundé 2018 62.0 98.5 92.7 3.8 89.9 52.9 93.6 94.7 96.0 74.5 98.0 99.3 63.5
Central African Republic Bangui 2000 81.1 98.2 73.8 3.4 30.6 ... 50.0 94.5 97.2 99.9 ... 36.1 ...
Central African Republic Bangui 2006 82.7 97.5 70.2 1.5 67.6 38.0 45.1 98.6 98.7 99.8 44.5 46.6 2.3
Central African Republic Bangui 2010 82.0 96.4 56.0 0.3 95.7 48.5 45.4 70.1 97.6 98.3 91.7 46.9 0.7
Chad N’Djaména 2004 51.2 67.3 23.8 12.2 35.3 ... 31.6 98.7 97.8 63.9 ... 35.3 ...
Chad N’Djaména 2010 72.7 99.4 14.1 6.2 72.6 42.7 40.1 65.7 90.9 95.9 92.2 42.4 15.1
Chad N’Djaména 2014 56.6 99.8 91.2 ... 69.8 32.2 37.8 73.4 98.8 58.5 94.9 54.8 35.0
Colombia Armenia 2005 97.7 99.9 ... 99.0 99.9 8.4 97.4 90.1 ... 92.2 ... 98.1 97.7
Colombia Barranquilla 2005 87.2 95.9 28.0 78.4 95.0 13.8 97.6 97.8 ... 75.1 ... 99.6 94.6
Colombia Bogotá D.C. 2005 96.9 99.8 28.8 99.5 99.9 16.0 92.8 99.1 ... 87.7 ... 99.6 97.8
Colombia Bucaramanga 2005 95.9 98.6 ... 94.0 97.3 12.5 84.8 93.0 ... 90.5 ... 99.9 94.8
Colombia Cali 2005 98.3 99.8 34.1 97.8 98.7 16.9 96.2 92.9 ... 88.7 ... 99.9 97.2
Colombia Cartagena de Indias 2005 83.5 95.3 31.6 58.9 91.9 9.2 96.4 91.4 ... 73.0 ... 99.8 93.3
Colombia Cúcuta 2005 96.3 98.7 ... 92.4 97.6 10.4 96.4 88.7 ... 80.2 ... 99.7 95.1
Colombia Ibagué 2005 98.3 99.4 ... 98.7 99.8 13.0 96.0 92.0 ... 84.0 ... 99.1 95.4
Colombia Manizales 2005 99.5 99.5 ... 99.8 99.8 3.8 88.9 76.8 ... 92.7 ... 99.6 98.3
Colombia Medellín 2005 91.5 97.3 26.7 95.5 98.9 6.2 93.9 91.5 ... 86.8 ... 98.9 96.3
Colombia Montería 2005 63.8 92.8 43.1 54.0 94.3 13.0 88.1 89.0 ... 73.1 ... 99.1 86.7
Colombia Neiva 2005 99.1 99.3 ... 97.3 98.8 15.1 91.6 85.6 ... 84.7 ... 98.7 90.7
Colombia Pereira 2005 97.9 97.9 ... 99.3 99.8 10.3 92.5 76.5 ... 90.4 ... 99.4 98.1
Colombia Popayán 2005 80.3 99.1 64.8 93.7 95.8 13.9 78.6 82.7 ... 86.1 ... 97.2 88.8
Colombia Riohacha 2005 66.5 95.8 36.5 75.9 96.4 8.9 81.2 93.7 ... 73.2 ... 98.9 91.7
Colombia Santa Marta 2005 79.7 96.1 ... 63.5 93.8 12.6 96.7 91.9 ... 67.7 ... 98.7 85.3
Colombia Sincelenjo 2005 89.4 97.9 43.7 84.3 94.7 11.3 97.8 80.9 ... 71.9 ... 99.3 84.1
Colombia Tunja 2005 89.5 98.6 ... 96.9 99.4 11.6 90.1 90.5 ... 89.3 ... 99.7 87.6
Colombia Valledupar 2005 91.4 99.0 ... 80.3 91.6 14.8 93.8 95.4 ... 67.3 ... 97.5 93.3
Colombia Villavicencio 2005 71.6 87.2 ... 98.2 99.3 17.4 87.7 97.2 ... 83.3 ... 99.3 97.2
Colombia Armenia 2010 97.2 100.0 ... 97.7 99.5 93.2 64.3 92.9 ... 92.9 95.3 98.6 98.5
Colombia Barranquilla 2010 95.1 99.9 93.0 80.3 97.0 85.7 48.6 98.2 ... 83.7 94.6 99.7 97.4
Colombia Bogotá D.C. 2010 98.6 99.9 ... 99.4 99.8 91.8 78.6 99.2 ... 93.2 96.6 99.5 99.0
Colombia Bucaramanga 2010 97.2 98.9 ... 95.9 99.0 87.0 68.4 92.3 ... 92.2 96.1 99.2 96.6
Colombia Cali 2010 96.2 98.6 10.1 95.4 97.8 87.0 70.4 94.2 ... 92.6 94.3 99.3 97.9
Colombia Cartagena de Indias 2010 83.1 95.7 63.1 68.9 92.0 81.8 45.3 90.0 ... 75.4 92.0 99.6 94.4
Colombia Cúcuta 2010 94.3 97.7 ... 93.0 98.6 87.5 55.3 91.0 ... 80.4 94.2 99.3 96.0
Colombia Ibagué 2010 93.4 98.9 13.9 94.0 96.9 89.1 37.4 91.7 ... 87.1 90.8 99.3 93.9
Colombia Manizales 2010 97.8 99.7 0.0 98.3 99.6 91.5 57.9 78.3 ... 93.3 96.9 100.0 98.1
341
Statistical Annex

Basic sanitation
water services b
Sufficient living
Durable floor e
Basic drinking
Clean cooking
Connection to
Connection to
Connection to
Durable roof g
Durable wall f
piped water
sanitation c
electricity
telephone
services d
sewerage
Improved
Improved
water a
Mobile
area h
fuel
County City Year
Colombia Medellín 2010 96.1 98.8 20.7 94.0 99.1 95.4 67.3 94.0 ... 91.8 91.6 99.8 98.8
Colombia Montería 2010 73.9 93.1 26.5 43.8 94.8 83.6 22.2 83.4 ... 76.2 91.4 99.5 85.4
Colombia Neiva 2010 97.1 97.1 ... 97.0 99.2 89.3 45.6 89.7 ... 86.6 94.2 99.4 96.0
Colombia Popayán 2010 88.6 98.0 ... 93.2 99.0 85.3 60.3 85.9 ... 92.2 95.5 99.4 96.3
Colombia Quibdo 2010 32.7 99.9 97.9 29.9 74.9 69.2 28.9 68.3 ... 89.3 93.6 92.7 84.0
Colombia Riohacha 2010 67.5 98.8 27.3 73.0 92.0 86.3 24.9 84.8 ... 71.0 94.4 99.4 86.3
Colombia Santa Marta 2010 79.5 93.2 36.1 60.7 94.1 85.9 30.5 94.7 ... 74.9 89.9 99.8 91.9
Colombia Sincelenjo 2010 77.2 95.3 72.6 70.1 91.1 82.9 25.9 79.9 ... 69.6 91.2 99.4 82.8
Colombia Valledupar 2010 94.9 97.9 ... 88.3 96.4 89.0 26.8 91.9 ... 75.4 93.2 98.4 94.1
Colombia Villavicencio 2010 59.4 94.9 26.6 97.1 99.6 87.4 52.7 96.2 ... 87.9 97.2 99.1 96.5
Colombia Armenia 2015 96.0 100.0 ... 99.5 100.0 97.4 97.6 93.4 ... 97.9 98.8 99.7 99.1
Colombia Barranquilla 2015 98.0 99.7 ... 93.3 98.4 86.9 97.9 97.7 ... 86.1 97.0 99.8 98.6
Colombia Bucaramanga 2015 97.0 99.7 0.0 98.7 99.8 93.3 99.1 97.1 ... 97.4 97.6 100.0 99.3
Colombia Cali 2015 97.0 99.4 58.6 96.3 98.5 93.3 98.3 96.4 ... 96.0 97.7 99.8 99.0
Colombia Cartagena de Indias 2015 87.8 95.3 60.6 67.5 95.4 88.1 93.4 90.3 ... 88.1 97.4 99.8 96.8
Colombia Cúcuta 2015 93.1 99.0 ... 97.9 99.4 95.2 98.1 94.5 ... 91.3 97.4 99.9 98.4
Colombia Ibagué 2015 90.6 99.8 ... 98.1 98.8 90.4 97.3 94.1 ... 92.1 97.4 99.5 97.6
Colombia Medellín 2015 95.6 99.4 31.2 96.0 98.6 96.2 98.3 95.3 ... 95.1 96.6 99.9 99.6
Colombia Montería 2015 62.8 97.9 54.2 70.8 98.5 92.2 86.7 90.0 ... 89.0 97.7 100.0 96.5
Colombia Neiva 2015 95.5 99.4 ... 95.8 98.4 94.0 96.8 91.9 ... 96.0 99.5 99.7 98.7
Colombia Pereira 2015 98.7 99.9 ... 96.6 99.2 95.4 94.0 93.7 ... 97.7 98.7 99.7 99.6
Colombia Popayán 2015 94.2 99.4 ... 93.5 99.1 87.2 94.8 89.1 ... 95.0 98.2 99.7 97.2
Colombia Riohacha 2015 38.3 99.2 88.3 84.3 97.7 94.9 95.1 92.4 ... 82.7 98.1 100.0 95.4
Colombia Santa Marta 2015 64.8 97.1 74.5 68.7 97.0 92.3 94.9 96.1 ... 77.9 97.7 98.4 96.0
Colombia Sincelenjo 2015 93.1 97.9 43.7 74.4 97.0 91.5 85.2 86.7 ... 88.7 97.8 99.5 93.9
Colombia Tunja 2015 76.1 99.8 ... 99.5 100.0 94.0 96.7 96.1 ... 95.9 99.1 100.0 97.3
Colombia Valledupar 2015 98.3 99.3 ... 90.3 97.7 94.0 94.4 94.0 ... 82.4 97.0 99.2 98.0
Colombia Villavicencio 2015 57.3 98.3 ... 99.4 100.0 95.4 98.2 95.3 ... 95.8 99.3 99.7 99.0
Comoros Moroni 2012 88.2 99.9 85.9 9.0 26.6 22.4 74.8 86.1 98.3 82.7 93.7 85.1 6.1
Congo Brazzaville 2009 85.1 98.9 ... 6.6 74.3 14.5 92.8 86.0 98.9 75.4 90.4 62.4 17.5
Congo Brazzaville 2011 76.6 96.2 78.5 2.2 61.8 17.4 89.6 88.0 99.1 69.1 94.1 63.7 23.6
Congo Brazaville 2014 70.4 98.1 92.9 0.0 79.7 31.0 93.9 89.9 98.5 66.4 97.2 85.7 39.1
Congo Brazzaville 2014 70.4 98.1 92.9 25.2 79.6 31.0 93.9 91.0 99.4 100.0 97.2 85.7 39.1
Democratic Republic of the Congo Kinshasa 2000 68.1 70.3 69.9 7.4 73.8 ... 99.8 86.5 97.0 32.2 ... ... ...
Democratic Republic of the Congo Kinshasa 2007 89.8 94.1 73.4 30.9 63.0 16.0 91.7 ... 98.0 ... 78.9 84.1 27.5
Democratic Republic of the Congo Kinshasa 2010 78.6 88.8 5.6 0.6 57.3 18.5 90.1 94.1 99.5 55.3 86.6 76.3 15.3
Democratic Republic of the Congo Kinshasa 2014 51.8 99.2 84.3 0.8 64.1 20.7 93.2 92.6 99.7 51.0 95.9 90.4 15.4
Costa Rica San José 2011 99.5 99.5 99.5 48.4 97.2 95.7 91.9 88.9 96.5 94.1 95.0 99.8 99.7
Cote d’Ivoire Abidjan 2006 89.4 92.7 18.9 16.6 89.8 39.3 98.7 95.2 98.7 99.4 75.5 92.5 1.6
Cote d’Ivoire Abidjan 2012 98.5 98.9 95.7 27.2 46.8 ... 99.1 ... ... ... 96.6 96.6 ...
Dominican Republic La Romana 2002 8.2 97.6 89.6 60.0 83.6 67.8 96.5 91.0 34.0 71.3 ... 98.4 95.2
Dominican Republic La Vega 2002 41.3 93.9 70.2 67.9 93.2 86.0 97.5 93.4 31.5 84.7 ... 99.3 96.4
Dominican Republic San Francisco de Macorís 2002 19.3 99.2 74.3 61.7 94.2 88.7 98.6 95.1 33.0 90.2 ... 99.6 96.9
Dominican Republic Santiago 2002 45.7 99.9 82.4 82.5 90.9 87.4 97.5 98.5 39.2 84.4 ... 99.3 96.2
Dominican Republic Santo Domingo 2002 13.1 99.8 90.4 85.3 88.3 83.0 98.2 97.8 54.7 82.0 ... 99.2 97.9
Dominican Republic La Romana 2007 6.7 99.3 96.0 69.6 93.3 70.5 98.1 92.1 37.5 79.9 79.5 98.9 94.7
Dominican Republic La Vega 2007 31.9 98.9 97.3 79.2 96.8 90.7 98.9 98.5 29.3 89.2 77.5 99.0 96.7
Dominican Republic San Francisco de Macorís 2007 10.2 99.5 96.8 72.6 95.6 90.2 99.1 97.5 36.0 87.8 78.3 98.4 95.4
Dominican Republic San Juan 2007 53.8 99.3 93.4 55.4 89.1 82.0 90.0 88.6 36.2 85.4 65.0 99.7 79.9
Dominican Republic Santiago 2007 32.5 99.2 99.1 89.9 99.2 94.6 99.3 98.5 48.3 92.7 84.7 99.4 96.4
Dominican Republic Santo Domingo 2007 9.0 99.8 98.3 86.6 96.4 89.1 98.4 95.7 58.7 86.8 82.3 99.0 97.8
Dominican Republic La Romana 2013 1.9 100.0 ... 80.5 96.3 78.8 99.0 92.5 47.4 80.1 93.9 99.6 95.0
Dominican Republic La Vega 2013 19.3 99.6 62.9 83.3 96.6 90.9 98.1 96.9 35.7 89.3 91.9 99.1 94.0
Dominican Republic San Juan 2013 20.5 96.2 86.1 66.3 94.1 84.4 96.4 96.0 23.3 83.8 91.9 98.8 83.0
Dominican Republic Santiago 2013 8.6 98.6 86.5 87.4 96.7 89.7 98.2 98.7 51.0 89.6 94.1 99.5 94.8
Dominican Republic Santo Domingo 2013 2.7 99.4 91.6 88.9 98.1 89.2 98.0 94.5 52.4 83.9 94.3 100.0 96.4
Egypt Alexandria 2005 98.9 99.6 ... 86.1 86.7 84.6 99.7 ... ... 96.8 41.0 99.9 99.1
Egypt Cairo 2005 99.3 100.0 86.8 75.8 76.4 76.0 99.5 ... ... 95.0 51.3 99.8 99.0
Egypt Alexandria 2008 99.6 100.0 ... 88.4 89.1 88.2 99.5 ... ... 96.0 64.8 99.6 ...
Egypt Cairo 2008 99.9 100.0 ... 81.0 81.9 81.5 99.4 ... ... 95.9 57.0 100.0 ...
Egypt Alexandria 2014 97.1 97.1 95.6 95.3 99.9 99.6 99.0 ... ... 93.9 96.8 ... ...
Egypt Cairo 2014 99.1 100.0 ... 99.8 100.0 98.9 99.5 ... ... 94.4 94.9 100.0 ...
342

Basic sanitation
water services b
Sufficient living
Durable floor e
Basic drinking
Clean cooking
Connection to
Connection to
Connection to
Durable roof g
Durable wall f
piped water
sanitation c
electricity
telephone
services d
sewerage
Improved
Improved
water a
Mobile
area h
fuel
County City Year
Eswatini Mbabane 2006 86.4 92.5 72.6 45.7 54.6 45.5 95.8 79.9 99.6 79.4 80.8 62.9 65.3
Ethiopia Addis Ababa 2005 99.9 99.9 90.3 2.2 73.3 26.8 86.4 21.6 99.8 50.7 37.0 97.2 5.0
Gabon Libreville 2000 99.5 99.7 92.3 37.6 69.2 44.7 96.7 97.9 99.1 75.2 95.7 92.5
Gabon Libreville/Port-Gentil 2012 97.1 98.4 69.5 45.6 77.1 47.0 96.8 100.0 99.7 75.6 98.3 99.5 96.0
Gambia Banjul 2006 80.3 80.8 8.4 45.5 96.6 39.8 98.9 76.5 ... 63.0 81.7 83.0 4.7
Gambia Banjul 2018 99.9 100.0 100.0 98.4 99.7 56.0 99.8 97.1 99.2 82.0 99.0 96.3 2.6
Georgia Tbilisi 2005 99.9 100.0 100.0 98.0 99.9 96.5 99.3 97.8 99.5 87.0 76.0 98.6 98.6
Georgia Tbilisi 2018 98.6 100.0 99.8 98.4 99.4 97.2 97.8 99.3 96.7 93.8 99.2 99.9 99.8
Ghana Accra 2006 62.6 68.8 67.7 4.8 87.8 23.2 99.0 97.9 100.0 61.4 77.1 89.3 37.1
Ghana Accra 2008 59.4 99.0 91.7 10.2 93.9 28.6 96.0 96.8 99.4 71.8 91.2 90.5 44.2
Ghana Accra 2014 29.3 99.8 97.4 22.7 92.2 26.7 98.8 90.4 99.6 70.9 96.9 95.2 52.3
Ghana Kumasi 2014 48.3 96.1 88.5 11.0 84.8 20.9 98.7 97.1 ... 60.2 93.9 93.1 34.6
Ghana Accra 2016 31.8 99.9 98.8 1.5 95.7 30.5 89.0 88.5 99.9 68.8 96.7 93.8 46.1
Ghana Kumasi 2016 38.7 89.3 79.5 ... 96.2 24.0 79.5 95.9 99.4 61.3 97.1 89.2 36.7
Ghana Accra 2019 11.8 100.0 99.5 2.2 97.1 23.5 99.1 95.7 100.0 74.1 97.8 97.6 55.1
Ghana Kumasi 2019 36.2 99.3 99.1 ... 88.7 36.3 99.8 95.6 99.3 66.2 96.7 90.5 39.6
Guatemala Guatemala city 2014 36.3 100.0 98.9 86.5 96.1 83.5 92.4 90.2 99.9 78.3 96.7 98.9 89.3
Guinea Conakry 2005 91.7 95.0 88.8 12.6 74.7 29.5 97.8 ... ... ... ... 95.5 0.8
Guinea Conakry 2012 86.5 99.4 76.6 7.7 91.1 38.3 94.9 99.3 99.9 59.1 96.9 93.8 0.3
Guinea Bissau SAB 2000 52.4 87.7 58.7 1.7 11.7 3.0 99.8 93.8 90.3 34.7 ... ... ...
Guinea Bissau SAB 2006 59.6 92.1 64.6 17.9 37.1 27.1 88.3 46.4 94.7 49.8 67.5 44.0 3.4
Guinea Bissau SAB 2014 71.2 96.9 77.5 2.2 63.8 32.0 82.5 25.2 98.8 61.1 98.2 43.6 2.0
Guyana Georgetown 2005 30.8 99.5 99.4 13.1 96.3 82.9 77.6 82.7 98.7 78.9 73.0 79.0 74.9
Guyana Georgetown 2009 14.8 99.2 ... 17.3 98.2 94.4 76.0 98.1 94.6 84.5 91.2 90.9 85.4
Haiti Port-Au- Prince 2006 60.7 98.0 89.5 4.6 58.8 30.0 96.8 98.3 100.0 62.2 52.5 89.8 9.6
Honduras Tegucigalpa 2005 58.3 96.8 58.3 69.8 85.1 70.9 65.4 75.4 98.7 71.9 55.5 ... 69.5
Honduras Tegucigalpa 2012 49.4 99.5 77.7 74.7 92.0 78.2 67.2 79.3 99.1 74.9 93.1 ... 71.5
India Hyberabad 2006 88.2 99.9 86.1 52.6 79.2 54.2 60.0 86.8 88.8 41.9 37.2 91.6 65.9
India Jaipur 2006 90.1 98.9 50.0 53.2 98.7 65.3 98.4 ... 99.7 70.5 56.9 ... 83.9
India Kanpur 2006 43.9 99.1 94.9 38.1 81.4 51.0 83.3 94.8 92.9 49.1 43.1 93.6 65.7
India Kolkota 2006 78.8 99.9 94.5 40.1 98.1 47.0 96.7 95.9 98.6 58.2 46.0 97.7 56.3
India Mumbai 2006 97.6 99.1 90.5 77.9 95.8 50.7 87.8 97.1 99.3 43.2 51.8 99.0 79.8
India New Delhi 2006 85.3 100.0 62.2 73.6 85.1 66.5 96.0 98.2 96.9 55.6 61.2 99.4 82.6
India Hyberabad 2016 64.9 98.1 94.6 8.7 85.4 77.8 75.9 97.0 95.7 61.1 96.1 99.6 89.8
India Jaipur 2016 77.2 98.2 79.4 20.0 85.0 74.1 88.9 96.4 94.1 67.1 98.4 98.7 78.3
India Kolkota 2016 59.3 98.1 92.7 3.9 86.2 62.5 80.5 89.6 89.5 72.4 94.7 97.4 58.8
India Mumbai 2016 92.3 98.7 81.0 28.9 83.6 60.3 92.3 94.7 98.4 50.8 97.7 95.8 87.4
India New Delhi 2016 75.7 99.7 84.2 57.5 93.0 74.9 96.7 97.8 92.5 60.1 98.8 99.8 98.1
India Srinagar 2016 86.6 98.2 87.6 18.9 75.9 67.8 93.2 93.7 98.3 83.6 98.8 99.7 89.8
Indonesia Bandung 2002 17.6 78.8 68.2 ... 87.0 ... 88.1 80.8 99.3 ... ... 97.9 12.6
Indonesia Jakarta 2002 40.3 89.3 96.1 ... 98.6 ... 97.7 89.0 99.6 ... ... 99.9 34.4
Indonesia Kediri 2002 30.4 92.0 49.8 ... 77.6 ... 93.3 89.9 99.6 ... ... 99.9 21.3
Indonesia Medan 2002 37.7 73.4 48.7 ... 88.3 ... 95.7 67.5 92.1 ... ... 93.4 20.3
Indonesia Surabaya 2002 29.0 86.4 97.4 ... 72.9 ... 94.3 91.3 ... ... ... ... 17.7
Indonesia Bandung 2007 19.4 77.6 35.5 ... 93.6 81.7 93.6 99.9 99.9 ... ... 98.5 20.1
Indonesia Jakarta 2007 35.5 95.2 66.4 ... 96.1 81.0 98.3 99.4 99.8 ... ... 99.7 37.6
Indonesia Medan 2007 51.6 82.0 35.2 ... 95.9 86.3 93.2 99.1 97.1 ... ... 99.6 25.0
Indonesia Palembang 2007 26.2 78.1 53.0 ... 89.3 77.7 77.8 99.4 94.6 ... ... 96.2 22.3
Indonesia Surabaya 2007 17.5 86.6 54.8 ... 84.5 74.4 91.1 99.5 ... ... ... 99.3 14.3
Indonesia Surakarta 2007 33.9 78.1 40.6 ... 80.2 69.0 88.7 99.9 99.8 ... ... 96.6 14.8
Indonesia Ujung Pandang 2007 57.6 81.5 71.4 ... 93.7 84.7 66.4 90.5 97.1 ... ... 99.3 26.0
Indonesia Bandung 2012 12.4 67.3 35.3 ... 90.5 ... 94.1 99.0 99.6 85.0 93.3 99.5 84.0
Indonesia Jakarta 2012 19.2 73.2 62.9 ... 99.3 ... 96.4 98.2 98.5 75.0 98.0 99.7 90.9
Indonesia Medan 2012 23.3 53.9 33.1 ... 96.5 ... 96.4 97.6 98.8 78.9 95.3 99.4 73.1
Indonesia Palembang 2012 38.7 62.2 14.1 ... 94.0 ... 88.6 99.1 98.4 79.9 95.5 99.8 87.4
Indonesia Surabaya 2012 20.8 64.3 46.5 ... 86.2 ... 94.5 98.1 99.6 88.9 93.0 99.7 77.6
Indonesia Surakarta 2012 21.9 73.2 39.4 ... 85.0 ... 93.1 98.3 99.3 91.5 87.8 99.4 71.8
Indonesia Ujung Pandang 2012 31.0 43.7 17.2 ... 92.1 ... 66.0 85.7 95.8 66.4 95.2 99.2 78.1
343
Statistical Annex

Basic sanitation
water services b
Sufficient living
Durable floor e
Basic drinking
Clean cooking
Connection to
Connection to
Connection to
Durable roof g
Durable wall f
piped water
sanitation c
electricity
telephone
services d
sewerage
Improved
Improved
water a
Mobile
area h
fuel
County City Year
Indonesia Bandung 2017 9.6 95.9 94.6 5.3 93.3 ... 98.7 96.6 99.9 88.0 95.9 99.0 93.0
Indonesia Medan 2017 22.5 98.6 98.3 2.7 97.0 ... 99.3 93.8 99.2 81.3 96.1 99.6 90.6
Indonesia Palembang 2017 30.1 92.9 91.9 2.8 94.2 ... 99.1 94.1 98.4 77.2 98.1 99.2 93.4
Indonesia Surabaya 2017 10.5 97.7 97.5 5.8 94.5 ... 96.8 96.3 100.0 93.5 95.5 99.0 89.6
Indonesia Surakarta 2017 21.2 95.4 94.6 4.6 94.3 ... 94.3 92.3 99.8 93.1 94.3 98.6 85.1
Indonesia Ujung Pandang 2017 23.0 98.7 98.0 7.7 95.9 ... 98.2 94.9 99.1 78.3 97.9 99.3 94.5
Iraq Baghdad 2006 97.9 99.8 99.8 65.1 99.7 72.4 99.3 98.1 96.0 55.4 66.5 99.7 87.6
Iraq Basra 2006 0.7 3.7 3.7 43.3 91.8 68.8 95.9 71.3 94.7 66.9 78.8 99.9 98.3
Iraq Kirkuk 2006 ... ... ... 11.6 99.8 83.8 97.4 93.8 92.7 48.0 89.1 ... 99.2
Jordan Ajloun 2007 71.4 99.3 ... 38.8 99.9 97.9 100.0 99.8 ... 63.2 93.6 99.5 100.0
Jordan Amman 2007 69.1 99.9 ... 79.6 99.9 95.3 100.0 99.1 ... 73.2 94.6 98.6 99.9
Jordan Aqaba 2007 97.1 100.0 ... 77.4 98.5 97.6 99.3 99.2 ... 64.1 94.0 98.6 99.5
Jordan Balqa 2007 78.3 99.2 ... 76.3 99.7 98.9 99.7 99.6 ... 66.7 90.1 99.1 100.0
Jordan Irbid 2007 62.7 99.5 ... 37.4 99.5 97.6 100.0 99.9 ... 66.4 93.3 99.3 100.0
Jordan Jerash 2007 82.3 99.6 ... 36.5 99.6 96.9 100.0 100.0 ... 57.3 89.9 99.4 100.0
Jordan Kerak 2007 88.0 100.0 ... 23.6 99.4 93.1 100.0 96.6 ... 58.0 90.1 99.6 99.9
Jordan Madaba 2007 84.9 99.7 ... 63.8 100.0 98.9 100.0 100.0 ... 63.4 91.3 98.8 99.9
Jordan Mafraq 2007 88.2 99.7 ... 36.3 99.9 95.2 ... 100.0 ... 59.3 90.5 99.5 100.0
Jordan Zarqa 2007 73.1 99.9 ... 69.9 99.9 98.8 99.9 99.6 ... 69.1 93.4 99.8 100.0
Jordan Ajloun 2009 64.0 98.9 ... 43.8 100.0 99.2 100.0 100.0 ... 71.2 98.2 99.6 99.9
Jordan Balqa 2009 70.6 98.5 ... 71.1 100.0 97.0 100.0 99.4 ... 64.7 97.0 99.4 99.9
Jordan Madaba 2009 67.4 100.0 ... 65.0 100.0 97.0 100.0 99.7 ... 67.5 98.0 99.7 100.0
Jordan Mafraq 2009 76.5 99.8 ... 36.1 99.9 97.7 ... 99.8 ... 69.9 98.6 ... 99.9
Jordan Ajloun 2012 41.6 96.9 ... 43.7 100.0 99.7 100.0 99.4 99.6 75.2 98.9 99.6 100.0
Jordan Amman 2012 51.6 100.0 ... 78.5 100.0 99.8 100.0 99.7 99.7 77.1 99.4 99.5 100.0
Jordan Balqa 2012 65.3 99.3 ... 73.8 100.0 99.6 99.9 99.2 94.5 74.6 99.0 99.4 100.0
Jordan Irbid 2012 37.7 99.9 ... 43.6 99.6 99.6 ... 100.0 99.9 83.0 99.1 99.3 99.8
Jordan Zarqa 2012 60.4 100.0 ... 85.1 100.0 99.4 99.8 99.9 98.9 70.9 99.2 99.6 100.0
Jordan Amman 2018 65.0 100.0 100.0 83.8 100.0 99.9 100.0 99.4 99.0 83.7 99.0 ... 100.0
Jordan Balqa 2018 87.0 99.7 99.7 78.3 99.6 96.1 99.1 98.6 97.9 74.0 97.4 ... 99.7
Jordan Irbid 2018 33.7 99.6 99.1 54.8 99.9 96.0 100.0 99.2 99.6 72.3 98.2 ... 99.9
Jordan Ma’an 2018 71.1 100.0 100.0 47.5 100.0 99.8 99.9 98.3 98.9 75.2 97.0 ... 99.4
Jordan Mafraq 2018 45.1 100.0 98.9 32.0 99.8 98.3 99.3 97.4 98.0 53.6 97.1 ... 100.0
Jordan Tafilah 2018 79.5 100.0 100.0 68.0 99.6 96.4 99.9 100.0 100.0 68.1 99.3 ... 99.9
Jordan Zarqa 2018 73.4 100.0 100.0 85.9 99.9 97.7 100.0 99.6 99.4 71.8 98.6 ... 99.7
Kazakhstan Almaty City 2006 100.0 100.0 99.9 79.3 98.2 96.8 100.0 87.7 99.8 94.9 70.3 100.0 100.0
Kazakhstan Astana 2011 97.9 99.9 99.9 75.3 99.1 90.8 100.0 93.0 97.1 100.0 98.9 ... 99.8
Kazakhstan Almaty City 2015 82.9 84.7 ... 64.0 99.8 98.0 99.8 94.3 99.9 96.1 99.0 99.9 99.8
Kenya Nairobi 2003 93.3 95.0 70.7 70.9 72.9 41.8 86.9 ... 94.3 71.0 ... 77.5 27.2
Kenya Nairobi 2008 92.0 98.7 81.9 69.2 94.6 47.0 94.5 88.1 99.3 75.3 92.7 89.1 42.4
Kenya Nairobi 2014 86.9 97.9 87.6 44.1 90.1 29.6 94.6 69.0 99.9 62.5 98.0 88.0 40.5
Kenya Nairobi 2015 74.8 98.4 97.8 38.5 92.7 55.8 99.7 67.7 100.0 77.2 99.6 97.9 ...
Kyrgyzstan Bishkek City 2012 99.7 99.9 99.9 47.6 99.5 88.3 82.3 82.1 64.0 87.1 96.9 99.7 99.7
Kyrgyzstan Osh City 2014 89.9 92.6 ... 38.3 98.8 94.4 96.9 84.6 99.6 86.1 99.0 99.9 92.0
Lao People’s Democratic Republic Luang Prabang 2011 40.5 99.1 99.1 0.0 94.9 89.8 89.6 87.2 95.0 81.2 97.2 91.1 10.3
Lao People’s Democratic Republic Savannakhet 2011 5.6 81.8 81.8 0.2 75.4 68.9 92.8 80.2 96.8 66.0 93.2 96.9 3.3
Lao People’s Democratic Republic Vientiane 2011 15.3 99.5 99.0 3.0 99.3 95.6 99.1 95.5 99.7 87.5 99.3 99.4 26.0
Lesotho Maseru 2000 85.4 90.4 73.1 5.5 67.3 ... 84.4 ... ... 78.2 ... 17.9 ...
Lesotho Maseru 2004 95.0 98.3 88.0 11.9 49.6 25.8 95.5 ... ... ... ... 39.1 75.6
Lesotho Maseru 2009 83.0 91.0 72.0 3.3 59.4 23.6 97.4 93.9 99.4 71.0 90.3 47.0 79.7
Lesotho Maseru 2014 97.9 99.0 90.9 4.6 95.3 45.1 95.3 95.6 97.5 78.9 95.9 67.9 84.9
Liberia Monrovia 2007 24.7 90.7 84.6 9.9 53.2 27.6 91.0 74.6 93.9 55.6 74.3 8.4 0.1
Liberia Monrovia 2009 33.8 97.5 ... 9.3 66.4 0.0 90.6 88.1 92.8 43.3 82.1 5.5 ...
Madagascar Antananarivo 2008 92.0 98.1 91.3 0.9 25.9 15.0 79.4 93.6 97.4 50.2 81.9 81.3 5.5
Madagascar Antananarivo 2011 87.0 96.6 ... 0.0 1.6 1.1 71.4 89.4 78.5 41.6 60.7 53.0 0.1
Madagascar Antananarivo 2013 75.9 93.7 ... 0.7 35.7 13.9 79.9 72.3 77.8 50.6 75.3 69.6 0.9
Malawi Lilongwe 2012 66.9 85.8 75.6 12.5 42.3 26.7 66.0 93.1 84.0 68.8 76.7 24.6 8.2
Malawi Blantyre 2014 93.2 98.9 76.6 0.8 71.5 37.6 81.9 76.5 95.1 97.4 87.7 53.4 12.1
Malawi Lilongwe 2014 91.3 99.4 91.6 5.5 99.8 50.3 85.0 90.7 94.3 100.0 87.8 51.0 14.0
344

Basic sanitation
water services b
Sufficient living
Durable floor e
Basic drinking
Clean cooking
Connection to
Connection to
Connection to
Durable roof g
Durable wall f
piped water
sanitation c
electricity
telephone
services d
sewerage
Improved
Improved
water a
Mobile
area h
fuel
County City Year
Malawi Mzuzu city 2014 93.9 99.7 99.4 1.0 96.6 66.4 76.6 82.0 85.8 93.2 94.8 50.9 7.3
Malawi Zomba city 2014 91.7 94.9 88.0 0.3 91.8 56.4 67.1 76.3 80.5 85.7 84.6 44.5 12.1
Malawi Blantyre 2016 79.5 97.2 77.9 2.5 98.1 34.6 78.6 82.4 95.5 86.6 85.3 55.3 7.7
Malawi Lilongwe 2016 96.6 99.6 89.0 4.3 99.9 50.7 81.2 89.3 95.3 85.3 91.2 50.0 21.7
Maldives Malé 2009 56.9 99.3 34.1 99.2 99.9 97.5 98.8 98.4 99.6 61.3 99.6 99.9 99.3
Mali Bamako 2012 87.5 98.7 94.0 9.8 90.8 47.5 72.2 80.9 95.0 71.9 96.4 84.6 2.5
Mali Bamako 2015 89.8 98.9 91.5 5.2 93.6 56.4 86.6 95.9 98.0 100.0 98.3 91.6 2.6
Mali Bamako 2018 79.3 99.0 95.1 6.7 90.6 46.9 87.8 95.4 99.5 72.6 98.1 92.3 1.2
Mauritania Nouakchott 2001 93.2 98.9 69.8 5.0 14.5 10.6 64.5 ... ... 34.9 ... 48.3 48.8
Mauritania Nouakchott 2007 30.3 98.0 90.8 2.2 77.9 61.1 81.3 95.0 50.4 47.2 86.6 80.8 70.4
Moldova Chisinau 2005 89.4 99.5 ... 90.0 97.4 89.0 93.3 99.6 99.0 96.1 67.4 99.7 99.8
Mongolia Ulaanbaatar 2005 43.1 99.2 88.7 35.3 96.2 63.0 21.1 53.5 49.7 49.0 67.8 98.9 39.6
Mongolia Ulaanbaatar 2010 49.2 99.8 93.7 32.8 99.3 66.0 37.5 72.3 35.4 73.9 99.1 99.3 47.7
Morocco Casablanca 2004 99.0 100.0 ... 99.2 99.2 88.7 93.7 ... ... 80.6 ... 99.1 99.6
Morocco Marrakech 2004 98.8 99.7 ... 99.9 99.9 85.2 93.1 ... ... 73.6 ... 98.9 99.6
Mozambique Maputo 2009 96.9 99.8 ... 12.9 84.0 63.0 95.2 94.1 99.5 87.1 90.7 83.6 27.7
Mozambique Maputo 2011 95.4 99.1 96.1 0.0 66.7 57.6 97.3 93.6 99.7 77.9 96.4 90.7 29.9
Myanmar Naypyitaw 2016 10.1 98.7 95.5 1.0 93.8 70.7 62.1 44.7 98.1 76.1 95.0 95.6 61.8
Myanmar Yangon 2016 8.9 95.4 79.9 1.4 78.5 65.9 62.3 66.8 99.1 63.2 97.1 98.5 75.6
Namibia Windhoek 2000 96.9 97.0 82.6 79.3 79.7 55.8 88.1 ... ... 71.4 74.9 79.5
Namibia Windhoek 2007 96.6 97.7 85.1 87.1 89.1 67.7 91.1 86.7 87.1 81.4 87.7 86.8 89.6
Nepal Kathmandu City 2006 60.6 99.6 87.7 67.8 96.6 36.5 92.1 98.6 99.2 63.0 42.6 ... 70.0
Nepal Kathmandu City 2016 56.2 99.7 96.0 55.8 95.7 55.2 94.4 94.8 14.2 87.8 97.6 ... 91.2
Nicaragua Managua 2001 97.9 98.3 70.0 50.8 81.0 75.1 77.6 81.8 99.3 59.5 21.5 99.5 75.2
Niger Niamey 2006 91.3 94.2 89.8 10.7 44.8 23.3 70.2 ... ... 52.1 50.7 61.6 3.5
Niger Niamey 2012 95.0 97.3 86.0 5.9 84.4 33.9 83.3 56.9 67.0 61.1 89.3 73.5 4.8
Nigeria Abuja 2013 51.1 99.6 97.7 41.8 95.2 65.5 95.5 97.2 99.8 72.8 97.5 93.2 42.3
Nigeria Akure 2013 7.2 95.7 85.8 12.4 73.7 30.2 98.5 99.3 99.2 70.4 96.2 94.2 3.1
Nigeria Ibadan 2013 6.9 97.7 93.0 1.8 67.6 20.5 99.6 99.6 100.0 65.3 95.6 78.4 1.8
Nigeria Lagos 2013 21.8 95.5 96.1 7.6 85.5 30.0 98.6 98.9 99.5 54.9 97.4 99.5 10.8
Nigeria Zaria 2013 24.9 82.5 89.6 12.9 92.4 29.1 83.1 81.6 97.7 78.6 92.9 89.7 3.9
Nigeria Abuja 2015 34.3 98.7 100.0 67.8 100.0 87.5 86.8 95.8 77.7 81.0 98.5 94.5 38.6
Nigeria Akure 2015 14.8 96.3 89.6 25.0 91.9 34.0 97.3 95.7 ... 74.2 96.1 77.5 15.0
Nigeria Ibadan 2015 3.5 97.7 97.3 2.2 88.8 45.6 93.1 87.4 96.3 76.9 94.8 85.7 9.7
Nigeria Lagos 2015 20.8 98.5 96.8 29.3 92.3 33.9 99.5 98.7 70.0 48.5 94.8 99.7 18.7
Nigeria Zaria 2015 14.6 85.4 84.3 15.9 72.8 60.9 70.3 77.2 95.8 79.7 62.2 66.7 3.1
Nigeria Abuja 2018 45.7 97.9 93.6 0.6 93.9 53.8 99.1 99.4 97.8 60.2 97.9 93.6 31.3
Nigeria Akure 2018 11.6 97.3 94.7 0.0 73.7 27.7 96.7 97.5 ... 73.2 94.6 85.5 33.0
Occupied Palestinian Territory Gaza 2010 7.6 99.9 ... 99.2 99.9 95.7 99.6 ... ... 77.7 0.4 ... 99.0
Occupied Palestinian Territory Bethlehem 2014 95.2 97.4 ... 28.9 98.3 97.5 62.9 ... ... 79.6 60.8 ... 0.4
Occupied Palestinian Territory Hebron 2014 86.6 99.5 ... 36.1 99.7 98.6 58.8 99.2 99.8 74.3 44.5 99.7 1.0
Occupied Palestinian Territory Jerusalem 2014 95.3 95.3 ... 83.7 99.0 98.2 44.8 99.4 99.6 75.5 72.8 99.7 0.6
Pakistan Islamabad 2012 65.2 98.9 78.7 90.8 97.5 93.8 93.5 96.5 90.2 44.9 95.4 99.9 91.6
Pakistan Karachi 2018 58.6 98.4 94.7 80.7 94.3 87.9 89.4 93.8 92.3 42.0 96.1 99.6 87.5
Panama Bocas del Toro 2013 85.9 98.7 43.8 9.1 73.4 69.1 60.1 96.6 ... 71.0 90.2 87.2 ...
Papua New Guinea Port Moresby 2018 98.6 98.8 97.8 68.9 86.2 71.0 98.6 89.3 99.1 52.7 94.6 87.7 68.7
Paraguay Asunción 2016 49.1 100.0 93.8 65.3 95.6 88.8 94.0 96.3 99.7 89.6 98.8 99.9 91.7
Paraguay Resto 2016 82.0 99.1 50.3 7.7 94.8 91.5 95.6 97.4 98.0 89.8 98.5 99.8 77.6
Peru Arequipa 2004 92.2 98.4 98.2 84.7 89.8 80.0 88.2 99.4 96.2 76.8 ... 97.8 65.4
Peru Chimbote 2004 91.9 91.9 91.0 78.1 83.4 70.2 61.4 67.8 94.9 83.0 ... 87.5 60.5
Peru Lima 2004 96.5 98.9 98.6 94.4 96.5 85.7 91.2 87.8 93.2 81.6 ... 99.3 86.5
Peru Piura 2004 93.7 94.4 76.6 36.0 59.6 59.5 59.6 74.2 99.3 70.0 ... 91.7 72.0
Peru Arequipa 2012 95.4 97.9 97.3 81.4 91.1 86.0 90.8 94.1 98.6 84.6 97.8 99.5 95.7
Peru Chiclayo 2012 89.5 93.1 91.2 78.4 87.6 78.6 72.0 51.7 84.9 82.1 93.0 98.9 91.4
Peru Chimbote 2012 95.7 97.0 97.0 87.3 93.1 85.4 81.2 72.1 84.7 87.9 93.0 97.6 84.4
Peru Lima 2012 88.4 96.9 95.8 89.1 94.8 86.8 92.5 86.6 93.5 86.9 94.1 99.4 96.4
Peru Piura 2012 82.3 91.1 87.1 65.5 78.2 70.9 63.0 76.1 99.2 82.5 86.2 97.6 72.9
Peru Trujillo 2012 90.9 97.2 97.1 72.8 83.1 78.4 70.8 49.5 78.0 84.9 92.6 98.7 83.7
Philippines Cagayan 2003 24.1 92.4 80.6 98.1 98.1 ... 71.0 ... ... ... 37.4 71.5 ...
Philippines Cebu 2003 64.3 96.6 85.8 84.0 84.7 ... 69.6 ... ... ... 46.6 90.4 ...
345
Statistical Annex

Basic sanitation
water services b
Sufficient living
Durable floor e
Basic drinking
Clean cooking
Connection to
Connection to
Connection to
Durable roof g
Durable wall f
piped water
sanitation c
electricity
telephone
services d
sewerage
Improved
Improved
water a
Mobile
area h
fuel
County City Year
Philippines Metro Manila 2003 75.3 99.8 95.2 97.9 98.1 ... 76.5 ... ... ... 60.8 99.0 ...
Philippines Bacolod 2008 51.3 96.2 72.9 4.7 79.6 70.1 73.7 64.4 87.0 73.2 79.8 86.0 16.6
Philippines Cagayan 2008 13.1 90.5 77.3 ... 98.8 70.7 79.3 77.7 93.3 65.4 80.0 92.1 36.4
Philippines Cebu 2008 25.9 99.5 ... ... 85.5 57.8 78.1 71.8 98.6 66.9 83.1 94.4 41.5
Philippines Metro Manila 2008 48.8 99.9 95.4 4.2 97.1 77.8 88.9 84.3 99.0 57.2 88.3 98.1 75.7
Philippines Cebu 2013 13.7 99.8 94.7 2.4 87.1 68.9 81.9 70.9 94.1 69.1 88.4 89.2 36.6
Philippines Metro Manila 2013 41.9 100.0 97.7 15.1 94.8 69.0 89.2 83.3 99.6 58.5 95.6 97.9 79.9
Rwanda Kigali 2000 81.0 83.3 60.9 6.3 48.8 30.9 75.4 ... ... ... ... 47.6 1.6
Rwanda Kigali 2005 67.3 70.0 54.2 10.0 67.1 45.5 71.1 ... ... ... ... 43.9 0.6
Rwanda Kigali 2008 79.8 81.0 71.7 6.4 34.6 21.6 73.5 ... ... ... 72.2 51.0 0.0
Rwanda Kigali 2010 83.3 93.8 74.3 6.5 95.6 51.4 79.5 77.0 99.8 83.2 90.7 68.5 0.4
Rwanda Kigali 2013 90.0 99.6 89.3 ... 95.8 49.8 88.9 91.6 99.7 88.4 97.6 89.5 1.6
Rwanda Kigali 2015 92.7 96.3 79.9 7.8 95.0 42.1 87.2 83.3 99.8 86.2 95.1 90.8 2.0
Rwanda Kigali 2017 82.8 96.9 88.3 9.1 94.1 40.6 83.7 82.2 98.8 89.6 93.9 91.5 10.9
São Tomé and Príncipe Santana 2009 97.4 99.4 66.5 4.5 19.4 11.0 98.8 ... ... 84.6 41.2 70.3 ...
São Tomé and Príncipe São Tomé 2009 99.6 99.9 81.3 5.6 56.4 48.9 93.6 ... ... 80.4 69.8 77.2 1.0
Senegal Dakar 2014 98.9 100.0 94.7 23.8 96.4 67.0 95.6 98.1 94.0 57.5 97.0 95.0 56.7
Senegal Dakar 2015 92.0 95.3 75.0 24.9 97.2 59.2 95.1 99.2 99.7 66.7 99.5 95.5 59.4
Senegal Dakar 2016 95.5 99.3 65.5 19.5 96.3 65.0 95.0 99.1 99.6 76.2 99.4 93.8 68.4
Senegal Dakar 2019 90.9 99.8 99.8 22.5 98.9 65.7 97.2 96.9 99.1 73.0 ... 97.5 64.9
Serbia Belgrade 2005 93.0 99.5 99.4 87.0 98.1 97.0 97.4 98.9 96.2 92.3 87.8 ... 94.3
Serbia Belgrade 2014 87.6 99.9 99.2 81.1 99.0 97.2 99.9 99.1 98.9 97.7 97.7 100.0 94.7
Sierra Leone Freetown 2008 77.2 96.3 63.5 0.6 84.8 29.0 88.3 71.1 93.5 63.8 79.0 52.3 0.1
Suriname Commewijne 2010 18.1 96.6 75.0 1.1 92.8 91.4 87.3 ... ... 88.9 91.9 91.6 81.2
Tajikistan Dushanbe 2005 94.7 95.9 ... 70.0 99.3 91.2 90.2 83.5 92.8 87.9 33.7 99.8 92.0
United Republic of Tanzania Arusha 2011 99.1 100.0 97.6 9.8 55.8 28.8 77.8 67.7 100.0 78.1 95.2 48.3 14.7
United Republic of Tanzania Dar es Salaam 2011 59.3 95.4 93.1 0.6 75.8 31.7 96.4 99.7 100.0 80.5 93.8 66.5 2.6
United Republic of Tanzania Dar es Salaam 2015 50.3 97.9 89.9 3.3 98.2 56.8 96.0 99.5 99.9 81.6 96.7 76.3 15.7
United Republic of Tanzania Arusha 2017 86.3 99.2 99.2 ... 93.4 56.8 85.4 72.6 99.6 88.1 96.7 65.8 32.8
United Republic of Tanzania Dar es Salaam 2017 77.2 94.2 92.5 ... 94.2 43.6 90.1 98.4 98.4 83.1 97.3 74.2 7.9
Thailand Bangkok 2005 53.4 99.4 99.3 11.9 99.9 93.5 81.5 96.5 99.3 86.4 92.4 99.9 84.8
Timor-Leste Dili 2009 66.5 98.7 96.8 19.4 93.8 73.2 83.2 75.8 99.1 73.4 87.7 98.6 12.8
Timor-Leste Dili 2016 50.6 99.0 97.6 ... 89.5 77.2 90.4 69.6 97.2 77.3 98.3 98.9 23.2
Togo Lomé 2006 77.2 90.3 87.0 0.4 78.8 27.2 98.6 97.5 99.8 68.1 60.5 73.8 ...
Togo Lomé 2010 70.7 89.7 0.7 87.9 32.3 95.5 96.8 97.5 68.3 91.5 83.9 8.6
Togo Lomé 2013 45.3 94.7 94.1 0.1 89.3 32.0 98.0 96.8 99.8 64.1 94.2 87.9 17.4
Togo Lomé 2017 47.6 95.3 93.9 1.9 91.3 31.7 99.4 99.2 ... 65.5 98.5 93.8 23.8
Trinidad and Tobago Arima Borough 2000 94.4 94.4 ... 68.7 93.8 85.8 ... 98.1 ... 96.3 ... ... ...
Trinidad and Tobago Port Fortin Borough 2000 83.4 88.4 19.5 ... 51.0 47.7 ... 97.9 ... 85.5 ... ... ...
Trinidad and Tobago Tobago 2000 90.7 93.2 6.4 49.4 74.3 71.3 ... 91.3 ... 92.0 ... ... ...
Trinidad and Tobago Arima Borough 2006 96.7 98.6 ... 45.2 97.9 93.8 97.3 95.7 ... 95.0 90.9 99.4 ...
Trinidad and Tobago Port of Spain 2006 90.1 98.4 56.4 72.6 96.3 93.7 75.8 83.0 99.7 93.8 89.4 98.5 99.3
Trinidad and Tobago Princes Town 2006 77.2 97.9 15.1 16.5 97.6 94.0 62.5 95.7 99.9 93.8 90.8 96.3 99.5
Turkey Bursa 2004 73.4 96.1 ... 100.0 100.0 91.7 ... ... 91.7 83.2 ... ...
Turkey Instabul 2004 46.1 93.1 4.2 95.2 99.1 98.6 92.5 ... ... 89.3 82.0 ... ...
Turkey Adana 2013 86.7 99.5 99.5 94.4 99.6 98.4 99.0 ... ... 87.2 99.6 ... ...
Turkey Bursa 2013 64.8 99.3 99.1 97.8 99.7 98.7 99.2 ... ... 96.7 98.2 ... ...
Turkey Gaziantep 2013 86.5 99.1 99.1 98.6 100.0 99.1 92.3 ... ... 67.7 97.3 ... ...
Turkey Instabul 2013 31.3 99.7 99.3 99.8 99.8 98.7 95.1 ... ... 94.2 99.2 ... ...
Turkmenistan Ashgabat city 2019 30.4 100.0 100.0 93.0 100.0 99.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 93.8 100.0 100.0 ...
Uganda Kampala 2011 84.6 97.6 94.4 12.9 94.2 23.4 94.0 88.3 99.4 63.8 94.1 79.9 6.2
Uganda Kampala 2016 80.8 99.0 97.6 5.7 93.6 31.6 96.6 95.1 99.7 65.3 97.8 92.5 4.7
Uganda Kampala 2019 81.1 98.7 97.3 0.6 86.6 31.6 98.3 94.6 99.0 55.2 98.7 95.1 4.5
Ukraine Kyiv 2007 65.1 99.1 ... 65.7 99.4 95.0 82.6 97.5 99.8 96.3 87.6 ... ...
Vanuatu Port Vila 2007 71.2 97.7 96.5 ... 94.3 59.3 96.0 94.8 99.2 76.1 79.7 86.9 48.7
Viet Nam Da Nang 2002 88.6 98.9 ... ... ... ... ... ... 66.8 ... ... ...
Viet Nam Ho Chi Minh 2002 90.6 99.0 ... 95.8 96.2 ... 99.0 ... 99.4 64.5 ... 99.8 ...
Viet Nam Ha Noi 2005 86.9 99.7 ... 97.4 97.4 87.5 ... ... 99.7 88.7 ... ... 73.6
Viet Nam Hai Phong 2005 88.1 100.0 ... 92.2 94.9 91.3 98.2 100.0 100.0 84.4 ... 100.0 47.6
Viet Nam Ho Chi Minh 2005 53.0 97.9 ... 99.2 99.5 96.3 99.3 99.3 99.8 66.7 ... ... 81.3
346

Basic sanitation
water services b
Sufficient living
Durable floor e
Basic drinking
Clean cooking
Connection to
Connection to
Connection to
Durable roof g
Durable wall f
piped water
sanitation c
electricity
telephone
services d
sewerage
Improved
Improved
water a
Mobile
area h
fuel
County City Year
Yemen Sana’a 2006 28.6 51.1 ... 52.7 99.5 98.9 95.2 ... ... 68.8 72.5 99.2 97.5
Yemen Aden 2013 86.8 98.9 ... 81.7 98.0 94.8 95.5 97.6 26.1 48.2 93.4 99.4 95.9
Yemen Sana’a 2013 18.4 99.0 35.0 70.9 99.1 97.3 99.1 98.6 56.1 72.2 96.8 ... 98.9
Zambia Lusaka 2002 94.8 97.7 91.7 21.7 27.6 18.5 96.3 ... ... ... ... 48.7 42.9
Zambia Lusaka 2007 90.5 91.6 90.2 22.5 85.5 36.0 95.2 97.3 99.7 59.8 74.3 61.7 55.5
Zambia Lusaka 2013 89.5 98.6 90.6 15.9 87.7 31.9 97.6 98.8 99.8 66.8 92.7 78.6 33.4
Zimbabwe Bulawayo 2005 98.5 99.9 97.8 95.6 99.7 70.9 99.6 99.8 99.7 76.7 40.2 98.5 97.9
Zimbabwe Harare 2005 95.4 99.1 98.6 87.3 98.5 65.5 99.1 99.4 99.7 77.3 41.8 88.5 86.9
Zimbabwe Harare 2009 61.5 98.0 93.0 84.9 98.2 20.8 98.5 98.8 99.7 77.2 69.3 ... 85.5
Zimbabwe Bulawayo 2010 99.6 100.0 ... 92.0 97.7 66.9 97.6 98.9 99.2 80.2 94.6 94.6 91.8
Zimbabwe Harare 2010 65.4 92.9 90.3 70.8 94.3 43.6 97.8 97.5 98.9 76.0 93.0 82.7 76.1
Zimbabwe Bulawayo 2015 99.1 99.8 99.8 95.0 98.9 66.6 96.6 100.0 99.7 80.9 96.5 96.2 90.3
Zimbabwe Harare 2015 36.9 97.3 92.7 79.2 97.5 48.5 96.7 95.7 98.7 81.1 98.1 80.1 76.3
Notes:
a Improved drinking water sources include: piped water into dwelling, plot or yard; public tap/stand pipe; protected spring; rainwater collection; bottled water (if secondary source is also improved); bore hole/tube well; and,
protected dug well.
b Basic drinking water services refer to drinking water from an improved water source whose collection time is no more than 30 minutes for a round trip incluidng queuing.
c Improved sanitation facilities include : flush/pour-flush toilets or latrines connected to a sewer, septic tank or pit; ventilated improved pit latrine; pit latrine with a slab or platform which covers the pit entirely; and, composting
toilets/latrines.
d Basic sanitation services are improved facilities that not shared with other households.
e Durable floor is floor made of the following materials: parquet, carpet, cement, bricks, tablets, mat, adobe, etc.
f Durable wall is wall made of finished materials such as covered adobe, bricks, cement blocks, wood planks, etc.
g Durable roof is roof made of finished materials such as metal, wood, ceramic tiles, cement, roofing shingles, etc.
h Proportion of population living in households in which not more than three people share the same habitable room.
Source: United Nations Human Settlement Programme (UN-Habitat), Global Urban Indicators Database 2020.
347
Statistical Annex
Table B.3: Urban Population Living in Slum Households, by Country and Region, 2000-2018
Country Proportion of Urban Population living in Slum Households (%) Urban Population living in Slum Households (thousands)b
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
World 31.2 30.9 30.1 29.2 28.2 27.3 26.3 25.4 24.6 24.4 24.2 894,875 928,034 946,516 961,109 969,070 980,512 983,965 992,179 999,526 1,028,017 1,059,936
Australia and New Zealand 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 26 27 24 22 19 16 13 9 7 7 8
Central Asia and Southern Asia 56.0 55.1 54.2 53.5 52.6 51.7 50.9 50.1 49.3 48.5 48.2 250,317 260,509 271,078 282,167 292,452 302,697 313,017 323,441 333,890 344,495 359,331
Eastern and South-Eastern Asia 37.5 35.9 34.2 32.4 30.6 28.8 27.1 25.3 23.6 22.4 21.7 313,358 320,173 325,835 328,456 328,509 326,680 322,500 316,089 307,327 305,119 306,620
Europe and Northern America 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 10,725 10,479 9,923 9,161 8,354 7,651 7,010 6,365 7,136 6,658 5,909
Latin America and The Carbbean 31.9 30.2 28.2 26.2 23.4 21.8 19.2 18.4 17.0 17.9 17.7 126,505 124,436 119,964 115,414 106,542 102,279 93,048 91,470 87,229 94,201 95,502
Oceania (Exc. Australia and New 17.0 16.0 16.0 15.9 15.7 15.5 15.3 15.0 14.8 15.0 15.3 331 323 334 345 353 362 369 377 387 408 431
Zealand)
Sub Saharan Africa 64.1 63.4 61.6 60.2 58.7 57.3 55.7 54.2 52.7 51.3 50.2 129,979 139,265 146,916 155,638 164,932 174,946 185,179 195,587 206,152 217,647 230,080
Western Asia and Northern Africa 31.6 34.4 32.6 29.8 27.4 25.2 22.8 20.3 18.8 18.7 18.7 63,633 72,821 72,440 69,907 67,907 65,881 62,830 58,841 57,399 59,482 62,056
Afghanistan … … … 63.6 63.6 64.8 67.2 69.7 72.1 73.3 73.3 … … … 3,772 4,048 4,431 4,987 5,613 6,254 6,797 7,260
Albania 28.1 25.5 23.0 20.5 17.9 15.4 12.9 10.3 7.8 5.3 2.8 366 346 325 299 268 236 205 170 133 94 51
Algeria … … … … 30.8 30.8 28.9 25.0 21.1 17.2 13.3 … … … … 7,097 7,513 7,478 6,861 6,115 5,239 4,238
Angola 19.7 19.7 19.7 25.8 31.9 38.1 44.2 50.3 56.4 62.6 62.6 1,622 1,816 2,034 2,967 4,048 5,317 6,794 8,497 10,434 12,617 13,733
Argentina 20.3 19.6 18.8 18.1 17.4 16.7 15.9 … … … … 6,703 6,636 6,557 6,464 6,357 6,241 6,114 … … … …
Armenia 12.8 12.3 11.8 11.3 10.8 10.4 9.9 9.4 8.9 8.4 8.4 254 240 227 214 201 189 180 172 164 156 156
Austria 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 … … … … … … … 219 214 214 213 … … … … … … …
Azerbaijan 50.9 44.9 38.9 32.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 … … … … 2,126 1,926 1,717 1,495 1,259 1,299 1,344 … … … …
Bangladesh 58.3 57.7 57.0 56.4 55.7 55.1 54.4 53.8 53.2 52.5 51.9 18,100 19,501 21,042 22,552 24,025 25,533 27,126 28,760 30,389 32,004 33,619
Belarus 17.6 16.0 14.5 13.0 11.4 9.9 8.4 6.9 5.3 3.8 2.3 1,220 1,115 1,009 905 802 702 601 499 393 283 170
Belize 15.8 15.8 15.8 15.8 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 28 29
Benin 71.9 71.5 71.1 70.7 70.3 69.9 69.5 69.1 68.7 68.3 67.9 1,891 2,035 2,206 2,384 2,572 2,771 2,984 3,211 3,454 3,713 3,987
Bolivia 57.9 55.7 53.4 51.2 48.9 46.6 46.6 46.6 … … … 2,986 3,025 3,052 3,069 3,076 3,072 3,214 3,351 … … …
Bosnia & Herzegovina 5.1 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 … 81 83 84 82 79 76 72 67 67 68 -
Botswana 58.7 56.6 54.4 52.3 50.2 48.1 46.0 43.8 41.7 39.6 39.6 540 549 553 556 581 605 622 631 638 641 678
Brazil 34.7 31.4 28.1 24.8 21.5 18.2 14.9 14.9 14.9 … … 49,441 46,366 42,877 39,002 34,766 30,213 25,373 26,008 26,617 … …
Burkina Faso 82.2 76.6 71.1 65.5 59.9 54.4 48.8 43.2 37.7 32.1 26.6 1,703 1,814 1,923 2,024 2,072 2,090 2,084 2,049 1,977 1,862 1,699
Burundi 79.7 79.7 77.0 71.7 66.3 61.0 55.6 50.2 44.9 39.5 36.8 421 466 506 529 551 569 580 585 585 577 602
Cambodia 84.8 79.2 73.6 67.9 62.3 56.6 51.0 45.4 39.7 39.7 39.7 1,915 1,883 1,832 1,765 1,692 1,644 1,585 1,511 1,413 1,508 1,608
Cameroon 65.4 62.1 58.8 55.6 52.3 49.0 45.7 42.5 39.2 35.9 32.7 4,547 4,668 4,783 4,887 4,978 5,047 5,089 5,099 5,071 5,000 4,882
Central Africa Republic 86.0 83.1 80.3 77.4 74.6 71.8 68.9 68.9 68.9 … … 1,215 1,228 1,236 1,243 1,248 1,242 1,219 1,243 1,286 … …
Chad 91.6 90.5 89.3 88.2 87.1 85.9 84.8 83.7 82.6 82.0 82.0 1,653 1,767 1,888 2,007 2,123 2,246 2,386 2,541 2,706 2,903 3,141
Chile 14.6 11.0 7.3 7.3 7.3 … … … … … … 1,920 1,484 1,015 1,035 1,058 … … … … … …
Colombia 21.2 19.8 18.5 17.1 15.8 14.5 13.1 11.8 10.4 9.7 9.7 6,328 6,167 5,973 5,743 5,477 5,175 4,837 4,466 4,062 3,876 3,967
Comoros 64.5 65.1 65.7 66.3 66.9 67.5 68.0 68.6 68.6 68.6 … 98 104 109 116 123 130 139 148 156 165 …
Congo 87.8 87.8 84.7 78.5 72.2 66.0 59.8 53.5 47.3 44.2 44.2 1,662 1,784 1,848 1,852 1,853 1,831 1,777 1,697 1,600 1,597 1,704
Costa Rica 12.7 11.8 10.9 10.0 9.0 8.1 7.2 6.3 5.4 4.5 3.5 294 296 293 287 278 265 248 227 203 175 144
Cote d’Ivoire 67.1 65.5 64.0 62.5 60.9 59.4 57.8 56.3 54.8 53.2 53.2 4,830 5,006 5,162 5,332 5,522 5,733 5,967 6,217 6,471 6,729 7,201
Cuba 2.2 2.2 2.2 3.2 4.3 5.3 6.3 7.4 8.4 9.5 10.5 181 183 185 276 367 460 555 650 746 840 935
Democratic Republic of Congo … 71.9 71.9 72.4 73.3 74.2 75.1 76.1 77.0 77.9 78.4 … 12,922 14,111 15,539 17,248 19,161 21,292 23,652 26,249 29,095 32,010
Dominican Republic 30.2 27.8 25.4 23.1 20.7 18.3 16.0 13.6 11.2 11.2 11.2 1,595 1,556 1,528 1,485 1,422 1,339 1,230 1,100 952 993 1,031
Ecuador 57.4 57.8 57.8 57.8 … … … … … … … 4,372 4,622 4,803 4,998 … … … … … … …
Egypt 42.2 36.7 31.2 25.7 20.2 14.7 9.2 3.7 0.9 0.9 … 12,633 11,431 10,111 8,651 7,036 5,310 3,456 1,438 368 382 …
El Salvador … 49.5 49.5 46.5 40.5 34.5 28.5 22.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 … 1,765 1,815 1,751 1,575 1,391 1,191 973 737 762 785
Eswatini 55.4 55.4 55.4 47.9 40.5 33.1 25.7 18.2 10.8 10.8 10.8 133 134 134 118 103 89 73 55 34 36 38
Ethiopia 92.2 89.1 86.0 82.9 79.8 76.7 73.6 70.5 67.4 64.3 64.3 9,040 9,493 9,948 10,391 10,958 11,649 12,356 13,042 13,713 14,360 15,733
Fiji … 15.0 15.0 14.5 13.5 12.5 11.4 10.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 … 60 61 60 58 56 53 50 47 48 50
Gabon 57.4 55.6 53.7 51.8 49.9 48.1 46.2 44.3 44.3 44.3 … 558 578 599 622 647 674 703 729 777 819 …
Gambia 56.9 55.1 53.3 51.5 49.7 47.9 46.1 44.3 42.5 40.7 38.9 336 359 382 405 428 451 474 497 519 540 558
Georgia 13.6 13.6 13.2 12.4 11.7 10.9 10.1 9.4 8.6 7.8 7.1 338 330 319 298 278 256 235 214 196 180 164
Ghana 60.4 57.0 53.6 50.3 46.9 43.6 40.2 36.8 33.5 33.5 33.5 5,022 5,143 5,250 5,336 5,396 5,416 5,388 5,307 5,171 5,531 5,902
Guatemala 55.5 53.3 51.0 48.8 46.5 44.3 42.1 39.8 37.6 37.6 37.6 2,931 2,991 3,044 3,086 3,117 3,138 3,148 3,149 3,138 3,310 3,491
Guinea 40.7 41.5 42.3 43.2 44.0 44.8 45.7 46.5 47.3 48.2 49.0 1,106 1,191 1,285 1,388 1,504 1,630 1,765 1,913 2,081 2,272 2,485
Guinea-Bissau … … … … 75.2 75.2 75.2 71.6 68.0 64.4 60.8 … … … … 438 469 504 516 525 533 538
Guyana 26.1 26.1 25.3 23.7 22.0 20.4 18.7 17.1 15.4 13.8 12.1 56 56 53 49 45 41 37 34 32 29 26
Haiti 61.3 60.0 58.7 57.4 56.1 54.8 53.4 52.1 50.8 49.5 48.9 1,865 2,063 2,230 2,354 2,478 2,601 2,721 2,836 2,945 3,043 3,174
Honduras 44.4 44.4 43.2 40.9 38.6 36.2 33.9 31.5 31.5 31.5 … 1,317 1,420 1,493 1,519 1,535 1,540 1,533 1,515 1,602 1,694 …
Hungary 15.4 14.2 12.9 11.6 10.4 9.1 7.9 7.2 7.2 … … 1,016 940 860 780 706 623 543 496 497 … …
India 55.3 54.6 53.9 53.2 52.5 51.8 51.1 50.4 49.7 49.0 49.0 161,101 168,051 175,430 182,790 190,103 197,240 204,193 211,207 218,417 225,832 236,771
Indonesia 35.1 33.5 31.8 30.2 28.5 26.9 25.2 23.5 21.9 20.2 19.4 31,210 31,719 32,123 32,401 32,542 32,508 32,160 31,620 30,862 29,872 29,929
Iraq 33.9 35.4 37.0 38.5 40.1 41.6 43.2 44.7 46.2 47.8 49.3 5,471 6,063 6,688 7,344 8,041 8,847 9,822 10,917 12,061 13,250 14,517
Ireland 6.2 6.4 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.7 8.0 8.3 8.5 8.5 141 152 167 180 198 214 223 234 246 258 264
Jordan 40.0 37.7 35.4 33.0 30.7 28.4 26.0 23.7 21.4 19.1 16.7 1,598 1,560 1,533 1,587 1,667 1,754 1,835 1,880 1,830 1,717 1,561
Kazakhstan 24.5 21.7 18.9 16.1 13.3 10.5 7.8 5.0 2.2 0.8 0.8 2,066 1,841 1,639 1,429 1,208 982 748 496 225 84 86
Kenya 63.2 61.6 60.1 58.5 57.0 55.5 53.9 52.4 50.8 50.8 50.8 3,953 4,216 4,491 4,782 5,088 5,405 5,735 6,078 6,428 6,998 7,609
348

Country Proportion of Urban Population living in Slum Households (%) Urban Population living in Slum Households (thousands)b
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Kyrgyzstan 47.2 42.7 38.2 33.7 29.3 24.8 20.3 15.9 11.4 6.9 2.4 819 752 679 610 544 475 403 326 244 154 57
Lao People’s Democratic Republic 54.4 51.0 47.5 44.1 40.7 37.3 33.8 30.4 27.0 23.6 21.8 637 674 706 716 712 700 678 649 616 575 567
Lebanon … 92.4 92.4 92.4 67.3 42.2 17.1 4.5 4.5 … … … 2,807 3,088 3,253 2,408 1,598 736 222 239 … …
Lesotho 62.7 62.7 58.6 54.5 50.3 46.2 42.1 37.9 33.8 29.7 25.6 229 246 246 244 240 234 226 216 204 189 172
Liberia … 75.5 75.5 74.6 72.8 71.0 69.2 67.5 65.7 63.9 63.9 … 1,041 1,096 1,168 1,256 1,341 1,407 1,463 1,523 1,586 1,698
Madagascar 91.4 89.0 86.6 84.2 81.8 79.4 77.0 74.6 72.2 69.8 67.4 3,910 4,129 4,351 4,679 5,019 5,366 5,719 6,079 6,447 6,820 7,194
Malawi 81.4 77.9 74.4 70.9 67.4 63.8 60.3 56.8 53.3 49.8 49.8 1,353 1,384 1,411 1,441 1,473 1,505 1,536 1,564 1,592 1,616 1,760
Maldives … … 41.5 41.5 41.0 39.9 38.7 37.6 36.5 35.4 34.8 … … 42 47 50 53 56 59 61 63 65
Mali 83.9 79.7 75.5 71.3 67.1 62.9 58.7 54.5 50.3 46.1 41.9 2,609 2,764 2,928 3,096 3,264 3,414 3,533 3,624 3,693 3,733 3,734
Mauritania 84.7 81.3 77.9 74.6 71.2 67.8 64.4 61.1 57.7 56.0 56.0 874 922 978 1,033 1,086 1,140 1,194 1,246 1,289 1,365 1,482
Mexico 32.2 30.4 28.7 27.0 25.3 23.6 21.9 20.2 18.4 17.6 17.6 24,446 23,947 23,364 22,789 22,209 21,534 20,721 19,780 18,718 18,447 19,021
Mongolia 57.6 53.6 49.7 45.7 41.7 37.7 33.8 29.8 25.8 21.9 17.9 789 777 762 743 719 692 647 594 534 467 394
Montenegro 19.1 19.1 18.5 17.3 16.1 14.9 13.6 12.4 11.2 10.0 8.8 69 71 71 67 63 60 55 51 47 42 37
Morocco 33.2 30.4 27.6 24.8 22.0 19.2 16.4 13.6 10.9 10.9 10.9 5,101 4,839 4,548 4,266 3,955 3,613 3,238 2,820 2,349 2,453 2,556
Mozambique 90.1 86.6 83.1 79.6 76.0 72.5 69.0 65.5 62.0 58.5 55.0 4,737 4,881 5,031 5,174 5,356 5,592 5,820 6,038 6,241 6,424 6,583
Myanmar 29.4 32.6 35.8 39.0 42.2 45.4 48.7 51.9 55.1 58.3 58.3 3,662 4,210 4,780 5,363 5,957 6,584 7,260 7,984 8,761 9,598 9,947
Namibia 42.6 42.4 42.3 42.1 42.0 41.8 41.7 41.5 41.4 41.4 … 262 281 303 326 350 378 412 451 492 536 …
Nepal 66.3 63.4 60.5 57.6 54.7 51.9 49.0 46.1 43.2 40.3 40.3 2,109 2,218 2,273 2,312 2,334 2,350 2,363 2,372 2,370 2,356 2,508
Nicaragua 71.6 70.3 69.1 67.8 67.2 67.2 … … … … … 1,986 2,018 2,046 2,075 2,125 2,195 … … … … …
Niger 70.0 70.1 70.2 70.2 70.3 70.3 70.4 70.4 70.4 70.4 … 1,287 1,391 1,496 1,611 1,737 1,874 2,023 2,188 2,372 2,582 …
Nigeria 74.1 71.6 69.1 66.6 64.1 61.5 59.0 56.5 54.0 51.5 49.0 31,590 33,631 35,741 37,921 40,163 42,435 44,684 46,858 48,901 50,779 52,466
Pakistan 71.2 69.7 68.2 66.6 65.1 63.6 62.1 60.5 59.0 57.5 56.0 32,539 33,653 34,724 35,790 36,862 37,962 39,102 40,241 41,319 42,336 43,345
Panama 48.7 44.4 40.1 35.7 31.4 27.1 22.8 18.5 16.3 16.3 … 917 877 830 776 713 644 566 479 441 459 …
Paraguay 42.0 39.0 36.0 33.0 30.0 27.0 24.0 21.0 18.0 15.1 15.1 1,233 1,217 1,178 1,126 1,065 995 919 834 741 639 663
Peru 47.4 45.6 43.7 41.9 40.0 38.2 36.3 34.5 … … … 8,975 8,951 8,900 8,826 8,717 8,569 8,413 8,240 … … …
Philippines 50.0 48.6 47.2 45.8 44.3 42.9 41.5 40.1 38.7 37.3 36.6 17,981 18,161 18,288 18,331 18,295 18,246 18,393 18,517 18,595 18,645 19,043
Republic Moldova 26.5 23.7 20.8 18.0 15.1 12.3 9.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 … 496 433 373 319 265 214 163 112 112 112 …
Rwanda 71.4 67.9 64.5 61.0 57.5 54.0 50.5 47.1 43.6 40.1 38.3 856 973 961 950 945 937 924 906 886 863 875
Sao Tome and Principe … … 61.4 61.4 60.4 58.5 56.5 54.6 52.6 52.6 52.6 - - 54 59 63 66 69 72 75 80 85
Senegal 67.2 63.6 60.0 56.5 52.9 49.4 45.8 42.3 38.7 35.2 31.6 2,676 2,685 2,717 2,750 2,774 2,792 2,801 2,794 2,762 2,704 2,616
Sierra Leone 73.9 73.9 72.5 69.8 67.1 64.3 61.6 58.9 56.1 53.4 50.6 1,202 1,323 1,444 1,523 1,575 1,615 1,652 1,685 1,711 1,733 1,749
South Africa 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.1 25.7 25.3 24.9 24.6 24.2 24.2 7,183 7,414 7,642 7,849 8,042 8,250 8,492 8,749 8,990 9,210 9,571
South Sudan … 99.8 99.8 99.8 99.8 97.0 94.2 94.2 94.2 … … - 1,211 1,323 1,461 1,623 1,744 1,856 2,023 2,200 … …
State of Palestine … 30.0 30.0 29.1 27.2 25.3 23.4 21.4 19.5 19.5 19.5 … 734 766 780 771 762 748 731 708 750 796
Sudan … 99.1 99.1 99.1 94.0 88.9 83.8 78.7 73.7 73.7 73.7 … 9,266 9,784 10,277 10,198 10,117 10,061 10,012 9,948 10,598 11,313
Suriname 7.4 8.3 9.1 9.9 10.8 11.6 12.5 13.3 14.1 15.0 15.8 23 27 30 33 37 41 44 48 52 56 60
Tajikistan 60.3 55.7 51.2 46.6 42.1 37.5 33.0 28.4 23.9 19.3 17.1 993 952 911 865 816 761 700 634 560 478 445
Thailand 15.6 15.6 15.1 14.1 13.0 12.0 10.9 9.9 8.9 7.8 6.8 3,084 3,373 3,547 3,577 3,572 3,530 3,373 3,181 2,959 2,706 2,426
Timor-Leste … … 56.1 56.1 54.0 50.0 46.0 42.0 37.9 33.9 33.9 … … 144 155 157 154 151 148 144 137 147
Togo 69.3 66.0 62.8 59.5 56.3 53.1 49.8 46.6 43.3 40.1 38.5 1,133 1,172 1,207 1,239 1,269 1,295 1,317 1,332 1,339 1,336 1,382
Trinidad and Tobago 11.1 11.1 11.1 10.3 9.5 8.7 7.9 7.5 7.5 … … 78 78 79 73 68 63 57 54 55 … …
Tunisia … … … 10.4 10.4 10.1 9.6 9.1 8.6 8.1 7.6 … … … 695 715 719 706 691 674 655 633
Turkey 24.6 23.2 21.8 20.4 19.0 17.6 16.2 14.8 14.1 14.1 … 10,064 9,965 9,817 9,602 9,324 9,021 8,704 8,344 8,327 8,695 …
Turkmenistan 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.3 10.0 9.8 9.5 9.3 9.0 8.8 8.5 218 224 231 233 236 241 246 253 259 264 269
Uganda 80.9 78.2 75.5 72.8 70.1 67.5 64.8 62.1 59.4 56.7 54.0 2,876 3,143 3,437 3,750 4,083 4,434 4,803 5,184 5,575 5,968 6,360
Ukraine 5.0 5.0 4.6 3.9 3.2 2.5 1.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 … 1,640 1,614 1,468 1,236 1,010 785 561 341 338 336 …
United Republic of Tanzania 81.3 77.1 72.8 68.6 64.3 60.0 55.8 51.5 47.3 43.0 40.9 6,201 6,412 6,746 7,097 7,450 7,781 8,075 8,317 8,493 8,584 9,040
Uruguay 23.7 23.7 23.7 19.9 16.2 12.5 8.8 5.0 … … … 724 730 733 622 511 398 282 164 … … …
Venezuela 27.8 26.4 25.7 25.7 … … … … … … … 5,965 5,896 5,949 6,159 … … … … … … …
Vietnam 45.3 40.4 35.4 30.5 25.5 20.6 15.7 10.7 5.8 5.8 5.8 8,868 8,441 7,896 7,235 6,451 5,543 4,496 3,282 1,882 1,998 2,118
Yemen 63.8 61.2 58.6 55.9 53.3 50.7 48.1 45.5 44.2 44.2 … 2,996 3,162 3,328 3,491 3,650 3,803 3,948 4,077 4,315 4,683 …
Zambia 63.8 62.2 60.7 59.1 57.6 56.0 54.5 52.9 51.4 49.8 48.3 2,338 2,455 2,593 2,738 2,890 3,054 3,231 3,421 3,617 3,817 4,023
Zimbabwe 27.5 26.9 26.3 25.7 25.1 24.5 23.9 23.4 22.8 22.2 21.6 1,136 1,164 1,154 1,146 1,144 1,148 1,157 1,170 1,187 1,207 1,229
Notes:
(a) A “slum household” is a household in which the inhabitants suffer one or more of the following “household deprivations”: 1) Lack of access to improved water services, 2) Lack of access to improved sanitation facilities, 3) Lack
of sufficient living area, 4) Lack of housing durability and 5) Lack of security of tenure. For these calculations, only the first four deprivations were used.
(b) Slum population calculated based on World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision
Source: United Nations Human Settlement Programme (UN-Habitat), Global Urban Indicators Database 2020
349
Statistical Annex
Table C.1: Access to Convenient Transport and Open Space Indicators in Selected Cities (%), 2020
Access to Access to Open Space Access to Access to Open Space
Convenient Convenient
Transport Transport
Country Cities Proportion Share Share Share Proportion Country Cities Proportion Share Share Share Proportion
of population of urban of urban of urban of of population of urban of urban of urban of
living within area area area population living within area area area population
convenient allocated allocated allocated living convenient allocated allocated allocated living
walking to open to streets to streets within walking to open to streets to streets within
distance public (%) & open convenient distance public (%) & open convenient
to public space public walking to public space public walking
transport (%) (%) space distance transport (%) (%) space distance
(%) to open (%) to open
public public
space (%) space (%)
Afghanistan Charikar 77.5 2.2 9.9 12.1 82.1 Australia Cessnock 93.5 2.8 17.6 20.5 54.0
Afghanistan Farah 69.5 2.8 9.4 12.2 62.5 Australia Darwin 91.6 7.1 10.1 17.2 86.7
Afghanistan Herat 50.4 2.7 7.2 9.9 55.6 Australia Geelong 89.7 8.9 11.1 20.0 88.9
Afghanistan Jalalabad 44.2 2.2 13.4 15.7 59.0 Australia Gold Coast 82.8 13.5 14.9 28.4 94.3
Afghanistan Kabul 19.1 0.5 13.0 13.5 13.0 Australia Hobart City 95.1 7.0 19.2 26.2 73.9
Afghanistan Kandahar 43.1 4.1 5.2 9.2 45.9 Australia Kingaroy 55.7 4.3 9.0 13.3 75.1
Afghanistan Khan Abad 82.4 3.2 9.4 12.6 75.2 Australia Laucenston 93.3 7.5 17.6 25.0 81.0
Afghanistan Lashkar Gah 56.3 3.1 9.9 13.1 70.5 Australia Melbourne 88.9 8.5 11.9 20.4 84.4
Afghanistan Mazar-e Sharif 57.8 1.6 13.7 15.3 65.6 Australia Muswellbrook 66.2 7.7 7.9 15.6 80.8
Afghanistan Pol-e Khomri 49.0 2.4 7.2 9.6 56.1 Australia Perth 45.4 7.6 13.6 21.2 85.6
Algeria Algiers 48.0 2.5 12.4 14.9 41.2 Australia Shepparton 91.8 6.7 18.8 25.5 92.3
Algeria Annaba 15.4 3.1 11.7 14.8 49.6 Australia Sydney 69.6 2.3 11.2 13.5 33.4
Algeria Batna 45.1 1.9 17.6 19.5 42.0 Australia Wollongong 90.6 5.1 14.0 19.2 80.6
Algeria Blida 41.1 2.0 12.7 14.7 54.0 Austria Vienna 97.5 3.2 11.7 14.9 72.4
Algeria Chlef 26.6 3.7 10.9 14.5 62.7 Azerbaijan Baku 83.1 4.0 19.3 23.3 57.0
Algeria Djelfa 25.1 3.4 21.3 24.7 70.6 Bahrain Manama 21.2 1.5 22.1 23.5 17.8
Algeria El Khroub 34.1 3.1 11.9 15.0 67.5 Bangladesh Barisal 58.6 1.0 4.1 5.2 59.6
Algeria Khemis Miliana 43.2 1.8 16.2 18.1 74.5 Bangladesh Bogra 37.4 1.9 7.7 9.6 79.8
Algeria Mila 52.4 4.0 16.1 20.1 81.6 Bangladesh Chittagong 61.9 1.4 13.7 15.1 64.8
Algeria M’Sila 50.9 2.8 14.2 17.0 65.3 Bangladesh Comilla 19.9 1.4 5.5 7.0 25.6
Algeria Oran 45.0 2.4 16.6 19.0 56.5 Bangladesh Dhaka 44.8 1.3 12.2 13.5 31.4
Algeria Tamanrasset 32.2 4.0 12.8 16.8 67.6 Bangladesh Dinajpur 76.0 1.9 4.2 6.2 82.0
Algeria Tebessa 15.3 3.7 10.6 14.4 34.9 Bangladesh Gazipur 21.9 0.7 5.2 5.8 26.8
Algeria Tiaret 38.4 1.5 18.1 19.6 32.1 Bangladesh Jamalpur 54.8 2.8 3.1 5.9 54.5
Algeria Tolga 95.7 2.5 15.0 17.6 81.4 Bangladesh Jessore 67.9 0.9 8.5 9.5 62.8
Angola Luanda 10.7 0.6 18.4 19.0 17.3 Bangladesh Khulna 68.3 1.6 10.5 12.0 65.3
Argentina Bahia Blanca 34.7 3.7 15.5 19.1 76.0 Bangladesh Mymensingh 35.4 0.5 7.5 8.0 29.6
(Nasirabad)
Argentina Buenos Aires 87.3 1.8 21.6 23.4 49.5
Bangladesh Rajshahi 59.7 2.1 6.7 8.8 83.6
Argentina Catamarca 59.6 1.5 13.1 14.6 82.9
Bangladesh Saidpur 60.1 1.9 4.1 6.0 75.3
Argentina Comodoro 81.5 1.7 17.7 19.4 61.7
Rivadavia Bangladesh Sylhet 56.3 1.2 9.4 10.5 71.3
Argentina Concordia 54.5 1.5 12.0 13.5 67.5 Belarus Babrujsk 87.9 2.3 11.8 14.1 46.7
Argentina Cordoba 86.8 2.2 13.8 16.0 72.0 Belarus Brest 79.8 2.6 13.4 16.1 50.2
Argentina Formosa 51.4 3.6 13.1 16.7 79.7 Belarus Gomel 78.7 2.3 12.3 14.6 42.1
Argentina La Plata 40.2 2.3 16.3 18.6 55.3 Belarus Hrodna 93.0 3.4 20.2 23.6 76.5
Argentina Mendoza 94.6 2.2 17.4 19.5 74.8 Belarus Kobyrn 54.9 2.5 10.8 13.3 33.7
Argentina Neuquén 98.0 3.1 25.9 29.0 91.1 Belarus Mazyr 75.7 2.1 13.8 16.0 47.4
Argentina Oberá 90.6 2.4 13.4 15.7 80.3 Belarus Minsk 91.0 11.5 19.0 30.5 83.3
Argentina Paraná 25.3 3.4 12.5 15.9 48.7 Belarus Polack 86.2 2.3 12.5 14.8 50.8
Belarus Salihorsk 93.7 6.0 29.0 35.0 77.1
Argentina Río Cuarto 65.4 3.4 18.1 21.4 77.1
Belarus Viciebsk 91.4 3.7 20.7 24.4 69.0
Argentina Rio Gallegos 72.1 2.6 4.4 6.9 84.4
Belgium Antwerpen** 95.3 5.0 17.1 22.1 64.4
Argentina Rosario 90.6 5.0 15.4 20.3 52.8
Benin Bohicon 22.5 0.6 11.6 12.1 36.6
Argentina San Juan 15.7 2.9 14.6 17.5 59.1
Benin Cotonou 34.2 0.8 8.5 9.3 50.1
Argentina San Martín 18.7 2.8 13.3 16.1 64.1
Benin Djougou 24.5 1.5 12.0 13.5 40.7
Argentina San Miguel de 18.5 3.7 11.9 15.7 43.6
Tucumán Benin Kandi 58.4 1.4 12.4 13.7 70.4
Argentina San Pedro de 21.5 4.7 18.4 23.1 92.5 Benin Natitingou 56.6 1.6 9.4 10.9 65.6
Jujuy
Benin Parakou 46.2 1.4 9.0 10.4 81.9
Argentina San Salvador de 68.1 4.3 16.0 20.3 80.7
Jujuy Benin Porto Novo 54.5 1.0 7.3 8.2 52.8
Argentina Santiago del 42.0 1.6 15.1 16.7 71.3 Bhutan Thimphu 33.5 2.6 11.9 14.5 30.5
Estero Bolivia Cochabamba 27.2 1.8 16.0 17.8 63.6
(Plurinational
Argentina Zárate 45.8 2.6 14.0 16.7 54.0 State of)
Australia Adelaide 92.5 6.2 12.6 18.8 72.2 Brazil Aparecida de 87.1 4.7 17.6 22.3 52.8
Australia Alice Springs 94.6 9.3 21.0 30.3 92.4 Goiânia
Australia Brisbane 89.1 8.0 12.0 20.1 80.5 Brazil Araxá 42.6 4.5 19.7 24.2 82.9
Australia Bunbury 93.9 11.4 12.2 23.6 96.8 Brazil Barretos 67.9 5.2 20.4 25.6 95.5
Australia Cairns 77.2 11.9 11.9 23.9 97.8 Brazil Belem 31.2 3.0 15.9 18.9 29.3
Australia Canberra 84.8 14.5 15.2 29.7 97.5 Brazil Belo Horizonte 85.8 5.3 16.5 21.8 41.6
350
Table C.1:Continued
Transport Transport
public public
space (%) space (%)
India Coimbatore 62.8 0.4 11.2 11.6 18.8 Iran (Islamic Salmas 50.8 1.8 12.9 14.7 51.9
Republic of)
India Hindupur 26.1 0.4 9.0 9.5 24.2
Iran (Islamic Sanandaj 53.1 3.9 13.5 17.5 54.8
India Hyderabad 72.0 1.5 19.4 20.9 40.2 Republic of)
India Jaipur 47.9 4.4 16.8 21.2 18.5 Iran (Islamic Sari 38.9 0.8 11.8 12.6 31.2
India Jalna 14.6 0.7 7.0 7.7 20.1 Republic of)
India Kanchipuram 10.5 0.5 14.9 15.5 34.3 Iran (Islamic Shadegan 40.0 0.9 10.6 11.5 53.9
Republic of)
India Kanpur 16.1 2.6 6.2 8.8 19.2
Iran (Islamic Shahin Shahr 15.4 4.5 15.7 20.3 83.9
India Kolkata 54.3 0.9 8.6 9.5 27.7 Republic of)
India Malegaon 48.2 1.3 7.0 8.4 25.0 Iran (Islamic Shiraz 45.4 2.8 15.6 18.4 54.7
India Morena 15.5 0.9 7.5 8.4 39.8 Republic of)
India Mumbai 80.9 1.8 11.3 13.0 35.3 Iran (Islamic Tabriz 59.0 3.4 16.0 19.4 56.3
Republic of)
India Nellore 19.7 0.8 19.7 20.6 35.3
Iran (Islamic Tehran 53.3 4.6 15.5 20.1 61.1
India Pali 10.1 0.6 5.5 6.0 23.3 Republic of)
India Parbhani 24.8 0.5 5.2 5.7 10.2 Iran (Islamic Varamin 20.9 2.1 10.8 12.9 64.3
India Patna 15.3 1.6 10.1 11.8 36.8 Republic of)
India Pune 75.1 2.2 12.1 14.3 30.8 Iraq Baghdad 8.1 1.3 13.4 14.7 20.3
India Singrauli 24.3 4.9 8.3 13.1 28.0 Israel Tel Aviv 84.8 4.3 12.6 16.9 75.8
India Sitapur 18.5 4.4 5.3 9.7 28.6 Italy Milan 77.7 4.0 9.0 13.0 76.2
India Surat 56.8 1.0 9.5 10.4 45.0 Italy Palermo** 93.9 1.7 8.6 10.2 42.2
India Thoothukkudi 9.9 0.6 8.4 9.0 24.2 Jamaica Kingston 53.8 1.8 9.5 11.3 24.0
India Tumkur 12.4 1.4 19.1 20.5 60.4 Jamaica Montego Bay 46.4 2.6 10.6 13.2 63.7
India Vijayawada 70.6 4.2 17.1 21.3 45.7 Jamaica Portmore 12.0 2.3 8.5 10.8 23.8
Indonesia Banda Aceh 29.7 1.6 3.6 5.2 23.9 Japan Fukuoka 95.4 6.1 20.7 26.8 70.1
Indonesia Bengkulu 48.3 1.7 4.0 5.7 30.2 Japan Okayama 25.0 8.3 14.9 23.2 64.0
Indonesia Kendari 27.2 1.6 3.5 5.1 23.1 Japan Osaka 69.4 4.7 23.0 27.7 72.2
Indonesia Parepare 7.3 3.1 5.9 9.0 50.2 Japan Tokyo 74.0 3.5 19.7 23.1 74.8
Indonesia Pematangsiantar 8.0 2.2 4.4 6.6 39.8 Japan Yamaguchi 20.2 4.6 13.4 18.0 35.9
Indonesia Semarang 33.4 1.7 4.3 5.9 39.4 Jordan Amman 10.0 1.3 18.0 19.3 33.9
Indonesia Surabaya 30.6 0.7 4.6 5.3 21.2 Jordan Irbid 4.6 0.6 22.0 22.6 55.0
Iran (Islamic Ahvaz 11.7 3.1 12.0 15.1 52.3 Kazakhstan Aktobe 40.5 3.0 13.7 16.6 44.8
Republic of) Kazakhstan Almaty 39.1 2.3 13.3 15.6 28.1
Iran (Islamic Aradabil 54.1 4.1 18.2 22.3 79.4 Kazakhstan Aqtay 12.7 1.1 13.9 15.0 7.6
Republic of)
Kazakhstan Astana (Nur- 53.7 4.4 15.1 19.5 26.2
Iran (Islamic Arak 66.2 5.6 16.8 22.3 67.7 Sultan)
Republic of)
Kazakhstan Balqash 24.4 2.6 10.7 13.3 44.8
Iran (Islamic Babol 42.4 0.7 9.2 9.8 28.4
Republic of) Kazakhstan Oral 54.0 2.4 13.4 15.8 33.3
Iran (Islamic Bandar Abbas 36.3 2.5 20.0 22.4 59.5 Kazakhstan Oskemen 39.0 2.3 12.9 15.1 29.5
Republic of) Kazakhstan Pavlodar 42.8 3.5 12.2 15.7 38.9
Iran (Islamic Bojnurd 55.7 2.4 15.9 18.3 45.2 Kazakhstan Qaragandy 53.6 3.8 14.4 18.2 35.4
Republic of)
Kazakhstan Qaskelen 17.0 1.4 11.1 12.5 20.3
Iran (Islamic Dehdasht 62.2 1.7 15.2 16.9 64.8
Republic of) Kazakhstan Qulsary 20.5 1.8 11.5 13.3 36.4
Iran (Islamic Esfahan 43.2 1.8 17.0 18.8 50.8 Kazakhstan Rudny 53.0 1.4 16.3 17.7 29.1
Republic of) Kazakhstan Semey 31.2 1.5 10.7 12.2 19.8
Iran (Islamic Gorgan 12.8 1.9 12.3 14.2 49.2 Kazakhstan Shymkent 22.2 1.0 12.3 13.3 7.4
Republic of)
Iran (Islamic Karaj 14.1 1.9 11.3 13.2 50.6 Kazakhstan Taldyqorgan 20.5 1.8 12.0 13.8 22.0
Republic of) Kazakhstan Taraz 24.1 1.2 13.6 14.8 11.0
Iran (Islamic Kashan 22.5 2.9 13.3 16.2 51.4 Kazakhstan Temirtay 49.3 2.4 12.3 14.7 53.2
Republic of)
Kazakhstan Turkistan 27.2 0.7 14.1 14.8 16.6
Iran (Islamic Kashmar 19.5 2.3 13.5 15.8 73.3
Republic of) Kenya Eldoret 15.2 0.5 11.2 11.7 10.8
Iran (Islamic Kerman 18.1 2.0 15.3 17.4 61.9 Kenya Kisumu 27.6 0.4 10.0 10.4 11.2
Republic of) Kenya Malaba 52.0 2.6 4.9 7.6 25.2
Iran (Islamic Khoram Abad 11.6 4.1 15.7 19.8 68.4 Kenya Meru 18.9 0.4 6.8 7.2 8.7
Republic of)
Kenya Nairobi 58.0 1.0 11.1 12.1 17.9
Iran (Islamic Mashhad 55.2 4.3 14.1 18.4 54.7
Republic of) Kenya Nakuru 12.9 0.5 6.1 6.5 14.9
Iran (Islamic Nishabur 32.2 2.2 14.5 16.8 64.7 Kenya Nyeri 23.9 0.6 8.2 8.8 21.6
Republic of) Kuwait Kuwait 39.0 1.5 22.5 24.1 49.4
Iran (Islamic Piranshahr 38.1 1.4 11.8 13.2 52.5 Kyrgyzstan Balykchy 63.7 2.3 11.7 14.0 74.7
Republic of)
Kyrgyzstan Biškek 55.2 3.8 14.8 18.6 59.5
Iran (Islamic Qom 22.6 2.3 15.3 17.5 47.5
Republic of) Kyrgyzstan Jalal-Abad 21.5 1.2 10.0 11.2 33.9
351
Statistical Annex
Table C.1:Continued
Transport Transport
public public
space (%) space (%)
Kyrgyzstan Kara-Balta 21.8 1.9 7.9 9.8 36.3 Mexico Tepic 12.3 2.8 16.1 18.8 55.4
Kyrgyzstan Karakol 49.2 2.7 11.6 14.3 49.6 Mexico Tijuana 10.9 1.5 23.1 24.6 51.9
Kyrgyzstan Kyzyl-Kyja 53.8 2.7 8.9 11.6 62.0 Mexico Veracruz 7.4 2.4 14.1 16.4 52.5
Kyrgyzstan Naryn 93.4 5.5 13.0 18.5 89.1 Mexico Villahermosa 59.7 2.8 10.6 13.4 89.6
Kyrgyzstan Osh 39.6 1.9 11.4 13.3 46.3 Mexico Xalapa-Enríquez 26.6 5.7 13.1 18.8 60.3
(Jalapa)
Kyrgyzstan Talas 69.6 2.9 10.4 13.3 71.2
Mongolia Ulaanbaatar 47.3 0.8 8.5 9.2 15.1
Kyrgyzstan Tokmok 59.2 6.3 11.8 18.2 66.7
Morocco Agadir 85.4 3.4 12.7 16.1 84.1
Kyrgyzstan Uzgen 59.4 2.7 11.4 14.1 96.1
Morocco Azrou 32.3 6.9 16.4 23.4 69.9
Lebanon Baalbek 8.2 1.0 12.8 13.8 45.1
Morocco Casablanca 66.5 1.2 17.9 19.1 29.2
Lebanon Beirut 20.0 0.8 14.7 15.5 20.7
Morocco Fes 39.1 1.4 17.9 19.3 32.5
Lebanon Sidon 24.4 0.9 12.8 13.6 61.2
Morocco Fkih Ben Salah 52.1 1.6 16.9 18.6 55.9
Lebanon Tripoli 30.9 1.4 11.5 12.9 72.8
Morocco Maknes 31.6 2.0 19.0 20.9 29.4
Lebanon Tyre 10.6 1.5 9.9 11.4 45.9
Morocco Marrakesh 74.8 1.6 13.2 14.9 61.3
Lebanon Zahle 49.0 0.7 12.1 12.7 36.6
Morocco Midelt 64.4 1.2 14.0 15.3 54.4
Lithuania Kaunas** 87.8 6.4 15.4 21.8 61.4
Morocco Oujda 15.3 1.3 23.8 25.0 45.5
Madagascar Amparafaravola 70.9 1.5 5.7 7.2 57.5
Morocco Oulad Teima 35.7 1.4 9.4 10.9 34.8
Madagascar Antananarivo 53.6 0.8 6.6 7.4 20.5
Morocco Safi 62.1 4.7 17.6 22.3 55.2
Madagascar Antsirabe 65.9 1.4 7.9 9.3 30.1
Morocco Sefrou 30.0 3.4 15.3 18.7 63.6
Madagascar Antsiranana 48.3 1.1 14.9 16.0 30.2
Morocco Sidi slimane 37.0 0.5 10.5 11.0 37.4
Madagascar Fianarantsoa 52.8 2.4 7.2 9.6 57.0
Morocco Tanger 70.8 2.0 16.6 18.6 46.9
Madagascar Mahajanga 46.5 1.3 7.7 9.0 18.1
Morocco Temara 34.6 2.6 13.8 16.4 25.6
Madagascar Marovoay 69.9 3.8 7.7 11.5 46.1
Mozambique Alto Molocue 53.7 1.0 4.2 5.2 23.7
Madagascar Taolanaro 74.1 3.0 7.9 11.0 68.6
Mozambique Beira 7.9 1.0 6.4 7.4 28.0
Madagascar Toamasina 31.1 1.9 8.5 10.4 31.9
Mozambique Gurue 31.6 0.6 6.0 6.6 31.6
Madagascar Toliara 54.8 0.7 7.8 8.4 38.9
Mozambique Manhica 49.5 0.3 12.9 13.2 10.1
Malawi Blantyre 15.4 2.1 9.1 11.2 22.6
Mozambique Maputo 52.2 0.8 15.0 15.8 15.3
Malawi Mzuzu 21.4 1.0 11.8 12.8 23.3
Mozambique Maxixe 35.7 0.4 10.6 11.1 25.5
Malaysia Ipoh 38.1 1.8 8.8 10.5 51.1
Mozambique Mocuba 41.1 0.1 9.1 9.3 10.8
Malaysia Rawang 41.1 1.7 10.6 12.3 22.4
Mozambique Nacala Porto 26.3 0.2 6.2 6.5 13.8
Maldives Male 98.8 6.4 13.2 19.6 97.7
Mozambique Nampula 10.4 0.2 9.9 10.1 9.3
Mali Bamako 76.6 1.4 10.3 11.7 76.7
Mozambique Pemba 46.0 2.1 14.0 16.1 49.9
Mali Kayes 57.4 5.6 9.8 15.4 94.2 Myanmar Lashio 19.5 0.2 6.3 6.5 13.6
Mexico Acapulco 7.4 1.8 8.7 10.5 56.5 Myanmar Mandalay 52.4 0.4 9.5 9.9 12.7
(Acapulco de
Juárez) Myanmar Mawlamyine 66.6 1.2 10.5 11.7 37.2
Mexico Apatzingán 5.8 2.0 13.6 15.6 53.8 Myanmar Myede 31.5 1.1 4.7 5.8 45.4
(Apatzingán de la
Constitución) Myanmar Myeik 61.6 0.5 9.2 9.7 30.7
Mexico Campeche (San 16.1 2.3 13.3 15.6 81.2 Myanmar Myitkyina 10.5 0.7 4.9 5.6 22.7
Francisco de Myanmar Naypyitaw 37.4 1.3 8.2 9.5 42.5
Campeche)
Myanmar Pathein 19.1 0.4 6.2 6.5 16.8
Mexico Ciudad Juárez 8.9 2.2 12.7 14.9 54.8
(Juárez) Myanmar Tachileik 27.5 1.2 8.1 9.3 24.1
Mexico Ciudad Rio Bravo 9.3 3.9 13.2 17.1 81.9 Myanmar Taunggyi 66.2 2.4 5.8 8.3 29.9
Mexico Comitán de 10.7 1.3 6.5 7.8 71.4 Myanmar Yangon 70.5 1.0 11.2 12.2 16.2
Domínguez Nepal Bharatpur 45.8 1.3 5.6 6.9 21.4
Mexico Culiacan 8.6 3.6 13.8 17.4 72.5 Nepal Biratnagar 9.9 0.7 6.8 7.6 23.2
Mexico Ensenada 5.5 1.1 12.3 13.4 42.9 Nepal Birendranagar 13.9 1.7 6.7 8.4 29.7
Mexico Guadalajara 21.5 2.3 13.3 15.6 50.5 Nepal Birgunj 13.5 0.9 5.8 6.7 16.7
Mexico Guanajuato 43.9 1.3 12.3 13.6 45.7 Nepal Butwal 16.1 1.7 7.5 9.2 11.9
Mexico Irapuato 57.7 2.8 11.6 14.4 85.0 Nepal Damak 18.2 0.4 7.0 7.4 11.0
Mexico León (León de los 86.8 2.0 14.4 16.4 56.2 Nepal Dharan 18.8 1.7 8.3 10.0 33.5
Aldama)
Nepal Itahari 23.8 1.5 6.0 7.5 17.8
Mexico Mexico City 40.4 3.7 12.7 16.4 46.3
Nepal Janakpur 10.3 0.9 6.5 7.4 23.9
Mexico Monterrey 10.7 4.4 15.7 20.1 72.6
Nepal Kathmandu 56.4 2.8 7.2 10.1 45.1
Mexico Puebla (Heróica 61.3 1.8 12.0 13.8 33.2
Puebla de Nepal Pokhara 75.8 4.7 9.1 13.7 74.5
Zaragoza) Netherlands Zwolle 93.0 7.4 15.0 22.4 91.9
Mexico Puerto Vallarta 94.8 1.6 11.4 13.0 46.5 New Zealand Auckland 94.4 9.2 16.2 25.4 88.4
Mexico Reynosa 12.4 1.3 10.4 11.7 27.8 New Zealand Christchurch 90.3 8.7 17.7 26.4 83.4
Mexico San Juan del Río 9.7 2.1 11.9 14.0 71.8 New Zealand Dunedin 94.4 5.2 15.1 20.3 76.8
Mexico Tehuacán 13.6 1.7 11.8 13.5 64.3 New Zealand Hamilton 96.5 7.7 16.4 24.1 86.4
352
Table C.1:Continued
Transport Transport
public public
space (%) space (%)
New Zealand Lower Hutt 97.1 4.8 16.2 21.0 78.1 Papua New Port Moresby 13.9 1.3 9.4 10.7 40.8
Guinea
New Zealand Napier 89.4 8.6 20.3 28.8 90.3
Papua New Wewak 30.3 1.0 7.0 8.0 20.3
New Zealand Palmerston 95.6 7.6 13.7 21.3 87.1 Guinea
New Zealand Tauranga 91.7 8.0 15.1 23.2 83.9 Paraguay Asuncion 18.8 1.3 14.1 15.4 32.6
New Zealand Wellington 97.7 9.1 19.2 28.3 82.5 Paraguay Ciudad del Este 5.0 2.2 15.0 17.3 34.9
Nicaragua Chinandega 32.6 1.3 9.5 10.8 34.2 Peru Arequipa 25.7 2.3 14.2 16.5 80.1
Nicaragua Ciudad Sandino 60.2 0.5 9.3 9.8 23.0 Peru Ayacucho 26.3 3.0 13.9 16.9 74.4
Nicaragua Granada 40.7 4.4 9.9 14.3 68.6 Peru Cajamarca 29.3 1.3 11.4 12.6 44.6
Nicaragua Leon 64.8 2.5 11.4 13.9 52.2 Peru Chiclayo 17.9 2.3 15.2 17.5 73.4
Nicaragua Managua 70.6 1.7 11.7 13.4 46.8 Peru Cusco 55.7 2.4 13.6 16.1 58.9
Nicaragua Masaya 37.5 1.8 9.4 11.2 69.5 Peru Huacho 15.3 1.1 8.8 9.8 53.8
Nicaragua Tipitapa 38.9 2.9 8.8 11.7 48.5 Peru Huancayo 13.5 0.7 10.9 11.6 30.4
Niger Agadez 17.2 1.2 17.0 18.2 45.8 Peru Huaral 9.3 1.3 13.4 14.7 61.4
Niger Dosso 9.0 1.2 15.1 16.3 33.0 Peru Iquitos 15.5 1.3 8.9 10.2 49.6
Niger Maradi 16.3 2.9 19.1 22.0 32.0 Peru Jaén 26.4 0.4 12.1 12.5 41.5
Niger Niamey 12.5 0.6 19.4 20.1 26.1 Peru Juliaca 14.1 1.6 14.5 16.0 39.2
Niger Zinder 31.0 0.8 19.2 20.1 13.8 Peru Lima 34.2 4.0 14.6 18.6 80.7
Nigeria Gombe 7.5 0.6 16.4 17.0 20.6 Peru Moquegua 19.3 2.4 14.9 17.3 91.4
Nigeria Ibadan 11.8 0.4 13.5 13.8 8.9 Peru Piura 8.4 1.5 12.9 14.4 50.3
Nigeria Lagos 38.1 0.5 13.8 14.3 6.9 Peru Trujillo 16.2 1.7 12.7 14.4 53.5
Nigeria Oyo 20.7 0.8 13.0 13.8 13.5 Philippines Bacolod 13.9 2.9 15.5 8.7 31.2
Northern Garapan 7.8 1.6 9.8 11.3 35.6 Philippines Cebu City 48.1 0.7 14.4 15.1 17.7
Mariana Islands
Philippines Manila 32.5 1.6 20.7 22.2 28.7
Oman Al-Buraymi 10.0 0.4 11.8 12.2 13.2
Poland Katowice 93.4 3.7 22.5 26.2 70.8
Oman Muscat 30.8 0.7 18.2 19.0 13.2
Poland Lodz** 93.8 4.2 17.1 21.3 49.4
Oman Salalah 18.0 0.9 16.8 17.6 20.3
Poland Lomza** 97.0 3.0 18.4 21.5 67.1
Oman Sohar 52.9 1.0 13.9 14.9 18.2
Poland Lublin** 87.2 2.9 19.1 22.0 49.1
Pakistan Attock 7.8 0.4 6.3 6.7 12.0
Poland Mielec 51.7 2.5 10.4 12.9 52.3
Pakistan Bhakkar 11.8 1.3 9.5 10.8 17.6
Poland Poznan** 92.9 7.6 15.0 22.6 61.6
Pakistan Chishtian 17.6 1.2 11.0 12.2 23.2
Poland Warsaw** 93.5 6.0 14.6 20.5 64.8
Pakistan Daska 11.1 0.8 6.1 6.9 16.4
Poland Wroclaw** 94.6 4.9 17.4 22.3 56.0
Pakistan Faisalabad 24.9 1.3 13.0 14.3 34.1
Qatar Doha 100.0 2.9 21.8 24.7 35.5
Pakistan Gujranwala 5.6 1.1 8.6 9.8 18.3
Qatar Mesaieed 16.8 0.3 11.4 11.7 26.6
Pakistan Hafizabad 19.6 0.9 5.7 6.5 19.7
Republic of Busan 89.6 5.5 14.8 20.3 48.7
Pakistan Hyderabad 72.0 1.5 19.4 20.9 43.4 Korea
Pakistan Islamadad 19.7 3.5 9.9 13.4 31.3 Republic of Cheonan 35.5 2.3 10.6 12.9 31.2
Pakistan Karachi 67.6 3.1 15.5 18.6 45.4 Korea
Pakistan Kohat 7.1 1.3 5.1 6.3 10.3 Republic of Gwangju 87.5 7.1 15.6 22.7 65.4
Korea
Pakistan Lahore 31.2 2.9 16.8 19.6 47.3
Republic of Jinju 64.8 3.4 7.6 11.0 38.4
Pakistan Larkana 19.9 0.8 10.0 10.9 23.5 Korea
Pakistan Layyah 11.5 1.3 8.8 10.2 37.1 Republic of Seoul 70.6 3.0 12.7 15.7 48.8
Pakistan Mardan 13.3 1.6 6.9 8.6 23.7 Korea
Pakistan Mingawara 11.9 1.5 4.7 6.2 34.3 Romania ARad 82.4 3.1 11.0 14.1 51.5
Pakistan Multan 32.2 1.4 7.3 8.7 25.7 Romania Bucharest** 85.6 3.5 9.5 13.0 54.1
Pakistan Nawabshah 23.0 0.8 4.8 5.6 23.8 Romania CampiaTurzii 83.8 2.5 6.0 8.4 50.2
Pakistan Peshawar 6.2 1.0 5.7 6.8 11.5 Romania Craiova** 84.8 4.7 8.1 12.8 60.6
Pakistan Quetta 8.5 1.5 6.9 8.4 12.8 Romania Falticeni 30.2 1.5 5.2 6.7 44.5
Pakistan Sargodha 12.9 1.7 8.3 10.0 28.5 Romania Mangalia 45.6 3.1 10.3 13.4 66.8
Pakistan Sheikhupura 5.5 1.0 11.5 12.5 31.9 Romania Navodari 78.7 1.3 7.7 9.0 19.6
Pakistan Shikarpur 24.1 2.6 4.7 7.3 27.8 Romania Reghin 60.4 4.6 6.1 10.7 48.8
Pakistan Sialkot 9.9 0.4 10.5 10.9 14.8 Romania Targu Jiu 38.5 1.8 6.3 8.2 36.3
Pakistan Turbat 8.2 1.0 6.8 7.7 34.2 Russian Astrakhan 73.9 1.2 9.6 10.9 37.1
Federation
Panama Arraijan 25.4 0.5 6.9 7.4 26.3
Russian Berezniki 65.7 9.4 13.7 23.2 73.7
Panama Ciudad de 59.8 2.7 10.4 13.1 38.7 Federation
Panama
Russian Dzerzhinsk 69.8 4.4 12.0 16.4 60.8
Panama La Chorrera 11.3 0.6 7.4 8.0 29.3 Federation
Papua New Lae 18.3 1.2 4.6 5.9 13.5 Russian Moscow 85.9 8.3 16.2 24.6 83.3
Guinea Federation
353
Statistical Annex
Table C.1:Continued
Transport Transport
public public
space (%) space (%)
Russian Saint Petersburg 90.2 3.2 21.8 25.0 40.9 Sri Lanka Puttalam 34.7 0.8 8.6 9.4 60.1
Federation
Sri Lanka Ratnapura 59.6 5.2 10.1 15.3 55.7
Russian Tyumen 81.7 5.1 18.3 23.3 64.2
Federation State of Al-Khalil 18.0 0.2 10.7 10.9 13.2
Palestine
Rwanda Butare 28.9 0.2 12.1 12.3 6.4
State of Al-Quds 52.8 5.0 12.3 17.3 40.0
Rwanda Cyangugu 33.1 0.0 10.0 10.1 4.8 Palestine
Rwanda Gisenyi 12.8 1.1 15.8 16.9 12.2 State of An-Nusayrat 18.7 0.6 12.8 13.4 23.6
Palestine
Rwanda Gitarama 28.9 1.0 10.2 11.2 21.8
State of Ghazzah 7.7 0.3 13.2 13.4 21.9
Rwanda Kayonza 26.9 0.4 11.1 11.6 21.6 Palestine
Rwanda Kigali 65.2 1.6 11.7 13.3 48.9 State of Jenin 21.1 1.1 13.4 14.5 4.9
Rwanda Nyanza 24.2 0.5 8.7 9.3 35.3 Palestine
Rwanda Ruhengeri 20.0 0.1 10.1 10.2 9.5 State of Khan Yunis 29.0 0.2 13.0 13.2 33.4
Palestine
Samoa Apia 18.8 0.7 6.7 7.4 17.2
State of Nabulus(Nablus) 15.2 0.9 11.4 12.4 21.6
Saudi Arabia Al-Khafji 7.5 0.9 11.4 12.3 14.3 Palestine
Saudi Arabia Al-Madinah 4.4 1.5 15.2 16.6 17.6 State of Rafah 23.8 0.4 13.7 14.1 30.5
Saudi Arabia Arar 6.6 2.3 12.3 14.6 20.7 Palestine
Saudi Arabia Ar-Rass 20.1 3.2 15.9 19.1 47.6 Sudan Al Qadarif 18.8 2.4 21.1 23.5 67.2
Saudi Arabia Makkah 5.5 0.8 16.8 17.6 22.4 Sudan Atbara 10.1 0.4 20.9 21.3 32.1
Saudi Arabia Rafha 50.8 2.8 16.3 19.1 53.8 Sudan Bur Sudan 4.5 1.3 21.6 22.9 44.2
Saudi Arabia Riyadh 8.6 2.4 13.9 16.3 10.3 Sudan Kassala 6.9 0.8 22.7 23.4 30.7
Saudi Arabia Tabuk 16.1 0.7 17.1 17.7 13.4 Sudan Khartoum 18.4 0.9 23.2 24.1 14.8
Saudi Arabia Taif 12.9 1.3 10.5 11.8 23.6 Sudan Sannar 5.5 1.0 20.3 21.3 32.8
Senegal Dakar 77.3 3.1 13.0 16.1 92.5 Sudan Sinjah 5.6 1.5 15.0 16.6 61.2
Senegal Diourbel 32.3 0.9 21.1 22.0 32.0 Sudan Wad Madani 10.5 1.7 21.3 23.0 47.9
Senegal Kaolack 20.7 1.3 21.3 22.6 44.1 Switzerland Basel** 95.4 4.5 16.9 21.4 81.8
Senegal Louga 38.7 3.1 18.5 21.6 45.8 Switzerland Bern** 94.3 6.2 19.6 25.8 77.1
Senegal Mbour 38.9 1.9 22.1 24.0 66.9 Switzerland Emmen_Lucerne 93.5 8.0 15.8 23.8 87.8
Senegal Saint-Louis 8.9 1.5 23.7 25.1 61.0 Switzerland Fribourg** 92.5 7.7 15.7 23.4 80.3
Senegal Thies 35.5 1.1 20.0 21.1 55.7 Switzerland Lausanne** 96.3 5.1 18.5 23.6 76.9
Senegal Touba 60.8 1.0 12.2 13.3 43.6 Switzerland Neuchatel 89.1 3.0 17.3 20.3 70.1
Senegal Ziguinchor 22.4 1.2 16.6 17.8 44.4 Switzerland St. Gallen** 97.2 6.6 16.3 22.9 82.9
Serbia Belgrade 90.3 23.4 12.5 35.9 63.8 Switzerland Wetzikon 97.1 3.0 16.4 19.4 85.4
Serbia Kikinda 36.8 3.0 5.7 8.7 17.7 Switzerland Winterthur** 93.7 4.7 20.0 24.7 81.9
Serbia Kragujevac 33.6 5.7 8.5 14.2 45.0 Switzerland Zurich** 96.2 3.6 18.3 22.0 67.6
Serbia Nis** 85.0 3.7 10.2 13.9 57.2 Tajikistan Chkalovsk 46.0 7.2 9.1 16.3 86.8
(Buston)
Serbia Novi Pazar 19.6 3.0 9.4 12.5 73.2
Tajikistan Dušanbe 40.7 2.2 9.2 11.4 38.7
Serbia Novi Sad** 76.3 4.4 10.7 15.2 52.9 [Dushanbe]
Serbia Pozarevac 37.0 3.8 8.9 12.6 37.6 Tajikistan Isfara 48.0 2.0 7.6 9.6 54.8
Serbia Zrenjanin 32.5 2.6 5.6 8.2 48.3 Tajikistan Istaravshan 27.0 1.6 5.9 7.5 40.4
Singapore Singapore 94.2 7.5 19.4 26.9 70.3 Tajikistan Khorog 71.5 4.8 10.6 15.4 83.4
Solomon Honiara 7.1 0.6 6.5 7.1 19.0 Tajikistan Khujand 43.9 2.9 9.3 12.2 56.5
Islands
Tajikistan Konibodom 49.6 0.9 11.3 12.3 51.4
South Africa Johannesburg 20.8 1.9 10.8 12.7 15.4
Tajikistan Kulob 39.1 2.7 5.5 8.2 42.7
South Africa Port Elizabeth 5.6 3.4 9.3 12.7 29.1
Tajikistan Ḳūrġonteppa 30.4 2.4 7.2 9.6 60.8
Spain Madrid** 98.4 6.7 17.2 23.9 63.1 (Bochtar,
Sri Lanka Anuradhapura 48.5 2.3 9.5 11.8 51.4 Kurgan-T’ube)
[Qurghonteppa]
Sri Lanka Badulla 41.4 2.5 8.7 11.2 58.2
Tajikistan Nurak [Hopak] 41.5 1.6 4.5 6.0 51.6
Sri Lanka Batticaloa 26.6 1.7 10.8 12.5 55.7
Tajikistan Pancakent 35.0 1.8 5.1 6.9 41.0
Sri Lanka Chilaw, Ferry 24.2 2.8 5.0 7.8 57.6 [Panjakent]
Street
Tajikistan Tursunzoda 36.5 1.6 5.8 7.4 30.5
Sri Lanka Colombo 62.6 0.5 9.7 10.2 15.2
Tajikistan Vahdat 23.9 0.9 6.3 7.3 38.9
Sri Lanka Embilipitiya 25.1 0.9 5.4 6.3 34.7
Thailand Bangkok 26.0 0.7 14.2 14.9 11.8
Sri Lanka Galle 70.5 2.1 11.2 13.2 38.4
Thailand Cha-Am 13.9 4.2 8.4 12.7 48.0
Sri Lanka Hambantota 42.8 1.9 6.4 8.3 47.6
Thailand Chiang Mai 33.9 1.4 13.4 14.8 37.0
Sri Lanka Haputale 53.6 1.7 10.7 12.4 33.9
Thailand Chiang Rai 14.5 1.3 11.4 12.6 22.3
Sri Lanka Jaffna 27.4 0.3 6.2 6.4 17.2
Thailand Chumphon 37.8 0.5 9.5 10.0 16.4
Sri Lanka Kandy 65.7 1.4 12.4 13.7 39.9
Thailand Khon Kaen 27.2 1.9 14.5 16.4 22.2
Sri Lanka Matara 53.7 1.2 9.4 10.6 37.3
Thailand Phatthalung 37.1 2.1 12.8 15.0 30.0
354
Table C.1:Continued
Transport Transport
public public
space (%) space (%)
Togo Lome 38.4 0.7 10.8 11.4 36.5 United Arab Al Ain 9.8 1.8 15.8 17.6 41.3
Emirates
Tunisia Al-Qayrawan 33.7 1.9 24.1 26.0 66.7
United Arab Dubai 41.2 2.7 20.5 23.1 40.6
Tunisia Banzart 16.1 1.5 15.6 17.1 41.0 Emirates
Tunisia Monastir 35.3 2.5 21.6 24.1 71.8 United London** 94.8 12.9 11.9 24.9 81.3
Tunisia Qabis 30.2 3.1 22.4 25.5 63.1 Kingdom of
Great Britain
Tunisia Safaqis (Sfax) 17.2 0.5 18.8 19.3 35.2 and Northern
Tunisia Susah 45.6 1.3 19.4 20.7 53.8 Ireland
Tunisia Tozeur 43.5 15.0 21.9 36.9 91.0 United Manchester 98.4 9.0 13.2 22.2 81.6
Kingdom of
Tunisia Tunis 48.5 2.9 22.2 25.1 45.3 Great Britain
Turkey Adapazari 23.3 1.8 20.0 21.9 41.8 and Northern
Ireland
Turkey Adiyaman 60.1 2.9 22.0 25.0 84.6
United Sheffield 98.2 5.3 11.8 17.1 58.2
Turkey Agri 45.0 1.6 15.1 16.7 70.6 Kingdom of
Great Britain
Turkey Ankara 34.0 5.1 21.1 26.2 76.8 and Northern
Turkey Antalya 70.8 3.7 16.3 20.0 69.8 Ireland
Turkey Balikesir 85.6 2.7 29.0 31.7 90.3 United Republic Arusha 21.7 0.9 6.1 6.9 16.7
of Tanzania
Turkey Bursa 77.8 2.9 27.0 29.9 70.7
United States Chicago 39.1 6.1 9.8 15.9 47.8
Turkey Carasamba 63.9 3.0 15.0 18.0 77.3 of America
Turkey Çerkezköy 47.8 1.2 18.3 19.5 69.2 United States Clovis 63.0 2.2 14.1 16.4 31.3
Turkey Corum 54.7 2.6 18.9 21.5 80.3 of America
Turkey Denizli 68.3 3.8 25.1 28.9 76.7 United States Gainesville, FL 73.7 5.3 13.0 18.4 43.1
of America
Turkey Elbistan 33.6 1.3 9.2 10.6 60.6
United States Killeen, TX 28.0 1.8 6.7 8.5 19.4
Turkey Gaziantep 60.6 6.0 27.5 33.5 83.1 of America
Turkey Istanbul 91.1 3.1 23.8 26.9 59.8 United States Manchester 98.4 9.0 13.2 22.2 48.3
of America
Turkey Izmir 83.3 3.8 25.8 29.7 68.9
United States Minneapolis 59.8 6.1 11.8 18.0 54.8
Turkey Kayseri 41.4 2.0 17.8 19.9 66.7 of America
Turkey Konya 44.7 3.0 19.2 22.2 65.3 United States Modesto 60.6 2.2 9.8 11.9 41.4
Turkey Malatya 59.2 1.0 15.2 16.2 58.8 of America
Turkey Nigde 57.8 1.4 15.1 16.5 71.5 United States Montgomery 35.3 2.8 9.8 12.6 25.7
of America
Turkey Samsun 42.0 2.7 22.7 25.4 71.2
United States New York 69.8 9.1 9.8 18.9 71.0
Turkey Sanliurfa 53.4 4.0 24.4 28.5 83.8 of America
Turkey Sivas 75.0 1.8 21.2 23.0 72.0 United States Philadelphia 59.2 2.9 10.0 12.9 37.3
Turkey Tarsus 65.6 2.2 22.6 24.8 70.3 of America
Turkey Uzunköprü 88.5 1.5 21.2 22.6 67.2 United States Portland, OR 68.3 4.4 13.4 17.8 57.4
of America
Turkey Viransehir 30.0 3.2 20.0 23.2 84.1
United States Raleigh 33.4 2.4 9.6 12.0 25.4
Turkmenistan Asgabat 60.7 4.3 14.9 19.2 48.8 of America
Turkmenistan Balkanabat 49.2 2.5 14.5 17.0 70.6 United States Springfield, MA 55.0 2.9 7.4 10.3 36.8
of America
Turkmenistan Baýramaly 8.2 0.6 8.9 9.6 12.1
(Bajram-Ali) United States Tallahasee 62.5 2.8 15.2 18.0 35.5
of America
Turkmenistan Dasoguz 9.1 0.9 8.0 9.0 20.9
United States Toledo 98.4 2.2 9.3 11.5 27.5
Turkmenistan Mary 26.9 1.3 13.3 14.5 27.8 of America
Turkmenistan Serdar 8.3 1.2 10.4 11.6 36.9 United States Visalia 60.5 3.0 12.3 15.4 65.5
(Gyzylarbat, Kizyl- of America
Arvat)
United States Waco 38.5 3.8 11.7 15.5 48.4
Turkmenistan Tejen (Tedžen) 9.2 1.6 15.1 16.7 52.2 of America
Turkmenistan Turkmenabat 24.5 2.1 13.5 15.6 38.4 Uruguay Las Piedras 87.5 0.7 13.6 14.3 49.8
Turkmenistan Turkmenbasy 11.7 1.5 12.8 14.3 49.7 Uruguay Maldonaldo 92.9 1.5 17.1 18.6 81.2
Uganda Gulu 14.7 4.6 11.1 15.8 76.0 Uruguay Melo 35.0 0.9 15.5 16.4 69.2
Uganda Jinja 11.5 0.3 8.8 9.1 17.3 Uruguay Mercedes 62.5 1.0 15.6 16.6 71.2
Uganda Kampala 48.7 0.8 7.4 8.1 22.9 Uruguay Montevideo 76.0 3.8 14.5 18.3 82.7
Uganda Kasese 21.5 0.8 14.6 15.4 20.8 Uruguay Paysandu 26.8 2.2 13.8 16.0 70.4
Uganda Lira 11.2 1.5 11.5 13.0 33.8 Uruguay Rivera 23.0 0.4 14.1 14.5 58.9
Uganda Masaka 8.4 1.0 9.0 10.0 17.8 Uruguay Salto 45.9 1.2 15.7 16.9 68.0
Uganda Mbale 11.6 2.6 6.8 9.4 28.9 Uruguay Tacuarembo 51.7 1.0 12.7 13.7 69.8
Uganda Mbarara 16.6 1.1 8.6 9.8 18.9 Uzbekistan Andijan 11.6 1.3 10.9 12.3 27.2
Ukraine Lviv 94.3 7.0 15.1 22.1 87.0 Uzbekistan Bekobod 15.1 3.2 8.1 11.3 62.7
Ukraine Nikolaev 79.5 2.4 13.2 15.6 48.0 Uzbekistan Besharyk 38.3 2.4 7.1 9.5 60.2
Ukraine Rovno 75.9 2.6 13.1 15.7 55.5 Uzbekistan Bukhara 8.2 1.3 7.1 8.4 38.9
United Arab Abu Dhabi 27.3 2.7 19.5 22.2 37.6 Uzbekistan Kokand 18.8 1.4 6.4 7.8 24.6
Emirates
355
Statistical Annex
Table C.1:Continued
Transport Transport
public public
space (%) space (%)
Uzbekistan Namangan 27.1 2.8 5.9 8.7 16.5 Venezuela Tucupita 48.2 6.6 9.3 15.8 74.3
(Bolivarian
Uzbekistan Navoi 19.9 1.5 9.0 10.4 12.2 Republic of)
Uzbekistan Nukus 41.9 1.1 16.0 17.1 13.3 Venezuela Valencia 88.0 1.7 12.1 13.8 29.1
Uzbekistan Qarshi 10.0 1.4 12.8 14.2 15.9 (Bolivarian
Republic of)
Uzbekistan Tashkent 23.1 1.0 11.0 12.0 5.6
Venezuela Valera 34.8 1.7 9.8 11.5 48.0
Uzbekistan Termiz 21.9 0.8 8.6 9.4 10.4 (Bolivarian
Uzbekistan To’rtko’l (Turtkul) 9.1 1.1 8.1 9.3 23.1 Republic of)
Uzbekistan Urganch 10.0 3.1 13.4 16.5 24.9 Venezuela Yaritagua 68.1 5.3 11.6 16.9 76.3
(Bolivarian
Venezuela Acarigua 39.7 3.2 13.5 16.7 56.7 Republic of)
(Bolivarian
Republic of) Viet Nam Ho Chi Minh City 68.7 0.8 13.9 14.6 30.4
Venezuela Altagracia de 26.3 3.3 5.1 8.4 46.7 Yemen Adan 24.5 1.9 22.9 24.9 51.7
(Bolivarian Orituco Yemen Al Hudaydah 30.3 0.6 20.7 21.2 39.4
Republic of)
Yemen Amran 22.7 0.8 16.0 16.8 27.7
Venezuela Barcelona 99.7 5.6 9.7 15.3 59.2
(Bolivarian Yemen Dhamar 35.4 0.8 10.4 11.2 36.2
Republic of) Yemen Rada’a 55.0 0.2 11.7 12.0 26.5
Venezuela Barinas 34.7 2.3 14.6 16.9 43.6 Yemen Sana’a 15.2 0.4 5.9 6.3 12.4
(Bolivarian
Republic of) Yemen Taizz 40.3 0.3 14.8 15.0 9.0
Venezuela Barquisimeto 46.7 4.9 12.8 17.7 57.8 Yemen Tarim 44.6 3.5 23.0 26.5 26.3
(Bolivarian
Republic of) Yemen Yarim 59.0 1.1 9.9 11.0 13.8
Venezuela Cabimas 33.1 3.5 15.7 19.2 86.0 Zambia Ndola 9.4 0.3 11.1 11.4 8.0
(Bolivarian
Republic of) Notes
Venezuela Cabudare 54.7 6.5 13.6 20.1 79.5
(Bolivarian Access to transport
Republic of)
Venezuela Caracas 44.4 5.0 13.5 18.5 38.1 Indicator is computed as share of population who live within a walking distance (along a street network) of
(Bolivarian 500 m to a low capacity public transport system (eg bus, tram) and 1000 m to high capacity public transport
Republic of) systems (trains, ferries, etc)
Venezuela Ciudad Bolívar 35.7 6.1 11.7 17.8 62.2 • Only public transport stops which are mapped are included in the analysis and can include both formal and
(Bolivarian informal stops where available. Many cities have an informal network which is not fully mapped and may thus
Republic of) record higher levels of access to public transport than reported here
Venezuela Ciudad Guayana 45.1 2.9 13.8 16.7 56.3 • Only public transport modes are considered, which do not include taxisData on public transport stops is
(Bolivarian (Guayana City) sourced from city maps, OSM, GTFS, UITP, Google, and point mapping in some cities. Estimates by DG REGIO
Republic of) are based on data from OSM, TomTom, NSIs, Eurostat, Copernicus Urban Atlas
Venezuela Ciudad Ojeda 20.3 3.4 9.3 12.6 15.6 • Data used to estimate population with access to public transport is based on grid level population
(Bolivarian disaggregation directly from city/country data, HRSL (Facebook and CIESIN), WorldPop or GHS-Pop.
Republic of) • City/urban area used in the analysis has been generated using a classification approach based on the Urban
Venezuela Coro 37.3 5.6 13.4 19.0 78.6 Extent or the Degree of Urbanization concepts to city definition.
(Bolivarian
Republic of) Access to Open Space
Venezuela Cua 33.1 3.2 5.7 8.8 39.6
(Bolivarian • Indicator is computed as share of urban land in streets and open public space, as well as share of population
Republic of) who can access/live within a walking distance (along a street network) of 400 m to an open public space.
• An open public space is defined as openly and freely accessible space for all (without any cost implication).
Venezuela Cumaná 41.8 2.6 12.6 15.1 59.2
(Bolivarian Identification of open public spaces are based on data compiled from city land use plans as well as data
Republic of) available from open sources such as OSM and Google.
• Data used to estimate population with access to open public spaces is based on grid level population
Venezuela Guarenas & 24.8 2.1 8.6 10.7 40.4
(Bolivarian Guatire disaggregation directly from city/country data, HRSL (facebook and CIESIN) or WorldPop. Analysis year is
Republic of) 2019, which in some cases includes population data for 2018.
• City/urban area used in the analyis has been generated using a classification approach based on the Urban
Venezuela Los Teques 26.1 2.5 8.2 10.7 36.3 Extent or the Degree of Urbanization concepts to city definition.
(Bolivarian
Republic of) • The urban/city area used for the indicator computation may be larger or smaller than the official municipality
boundaries.
Venezuela Maracaibo 19.3 1.9 14.4 16.3 35.5
(Bolivarian
Republic of)
Source: United Nations Human Settlement Programme (UN-Habitat), Global Urban Indicators Database 2020
Venezuela Maracay 22.0 2.3 12.5 14.7 39.7
(Bolivarian ** Data from European Commission DG REGIO
Republic of)

Venezuela Mariara 44.0 2.6 12.2 14.8 56.5
(Bolivarian a) Includes Az-zarqa, Ar-Rusayfah, Al-Quwaysimah,Tila al-Ali, Wadi as-sir, Al-Jubayhah, Khraibat as-suq and
Republic of) Sahab
Venezuela SaCarlos Del Zulia 36.7 2.9 8.0 10.8 53.3 b) Includes Ḥawallī, Al-Farwānīyah, Al-Finṭās, Al-Jahrā’, Janūb al-Kuwayt, Al-Manqaf, Al-Firdaws and Mubarāk
(Bolivarian al-Kabīr
Republic of) c) Includes Mohammedia town
Venezuela San Cristobal 46.7 3.6 12.1 15.7 57.5 d) Includes Bawashar, Matrah and Aseed (Assib)
(Bolivarian e) Includes Jabaiyah, Bayt Lāhīyā
Republic of) f) Includes Dayr al Balah
Venezuela San Juan de los 48.8 2.0 8.9 10.9 41.4 g) Includes At-Tadamun and Sukrah
(Bolivarian Morros h) Includes Ajman and Ash Shariqa
Republic of)
356
Table C.2: Annual mean levels of fine particulate matter, Urban (micrograms per cubic meter), by Country and Region, 2011-2016
Region/Country 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Region/Country 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
World 30.2 30.9 31.8 31.9 31.4 31.2 Finland 8.4 7.5 7.0 7.0 6.7 6.5
Australia and New Zealand 7.3 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.2 France 16.2 14.6 14.3 12.6 13.3 12.2
Central and Southern Asia 58.4 63.5 65.7 72.1 67.6 68.3 Djibouti 33.4 33.5 33.8 32.8 39.2 38.2
Eastern and South-Eastern Asia 36.9 39.1 41.4 41.2 37.6 35.9 Gabon 37.4 36.4 37.3 39.7 39.7 41.5
Europe and Northern America 12.9 11.9 11.6 11.0 11.0 10.2 Georgia 27.6 28.8 27.0 25.3 26.1 26.9
Latin America and the Caribbean 19.0 18.2 17.7 17.5 16.5 16.2 Gambia 54.4 55.2 54.4 57.2 63.4 58.4
Northern Africa and Western Asia 39.8 41.1 42.3 41.9 44.6 43.5 Germany 15.3 13.7 13.3 12.4 12.9 11.8
Oceania (exc. Australia and New Zealand) 9.1 9.4 9.4 9.6 9.7 9.9 Ghana 50.2 47.6 49.5 43.9 55.3 55.6
Sub-Saharan Africa 37.2 36.4 37.0 35.8 40.1 39.3 Kiribati 11.1 11.3 11.2 11.2 11.1 11.6
Afghanistan 58.1 63.3 63.0 68.2 63.4 63.6 Greece 19.9 18.0 16.8 16.3 16.7 15.0
Albania 24.5 22.4 21.4 21.2 20.5 19.3 Grenada 22.7 22.6 22.8 23.1 23.8 23.1
Algeria 29.0 29.7 30.3 33.1 33.5 34.1 Guatemala 35.2 32.8 34.2 31.7 31.2 30.9
Andorra 13.2 11.9 11.5 10.1 10.7 9.5 Guinea 50.7 48.2 46.6 45.2 56.6 53.8
Angola 36.7 35.0 40.8 37.4 39.2 40.3 Guyana 25.0 25.8 26.5 25.9 26.4 26.8
Antigua and Barbuda 20.5 20.4 20.4 20.8 21.1 21.1 Haiti 19.5 19.2 19.4 19.5 19.8 19.5
Azerbaijan 23.7 24.4 22.9 21.7 22.4 23.2 Honduras 29.7 27.5 28.5 26.0 25.7 25.4
Argentina 11.4 11.2 12.1 11.8 12.2 12.4 Hungary 20.6 18.2 17.9 17.7 17.7 16.7
Australia 7.4 7.8 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.3 Iceland 7.7 6.9 6.8 6.3 6.3 5.8
Austria 16.9 15.2 14.9 13.6 14.3 12.9 India 65.1 70.2 74.2 81.1 75.9 78.2
Bahamas 17.4 17.4 17.8 17.8 17.6 17.7 Indonesia 16.4 18.2 18.2 17.1 17.8 20.7
Bahrain 59.0 62.6 66.5 57.7 65.9 63.3 Iran (Islamic Republic of) 34.1 34.3 33.9 34.3 34.5 33.7
Bangladesh 55.3 61.7 62.4 69.8 65.5 64.1 Iraq 62.3 60.4 60.7 50.3 60.1 56.4
Armenia 47.2 49.5 45.9 43.0 44.1 45.5 Ireland 11.1 10.0 9.9 9.0 9.1 8.5
Barbados 25.2 25.0 24.9 25.0 25.9 25.4 Israel 23.5 22.0 21.5 20.1 20.5 18.6
Belgium 16.4 14.8 14.2 12.9 13.8 12.8 Italy 20.2 18.1 17.4 16.3 17.1 15.3
Bhutan 31.8 34.9 36.5 39.4 36.6 36.9 Côte d’Ivoire 53.9 48.8 50.8 44.9 58.8 58.5
Bolivia (Plurinational State of) 26.2 27.6 27.8 28.8 27.0 27.3 Jamaica 15.0 15.4 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.4
Bosnia and Herzegovina 39.2 35.5 33.8 33.8 32.7 30.7 Japan 12.9 13.1 13.6 13.8 13.4 13.7
Botswana 23.3 23.8 22.9 22.3 28.4 25.1 Kazakhstan 25.8 26.6 25.3 24.1 24.2 25.6
Brazil 14.9 14.2 13.4 13.3 11.9 11.8 Jordan 33.1 32.5 35.0 33.7 34.0 32.8
Belize 20.7 20.3 20.8 20.0 20.5 20.7 Kenya 23.3 24.4 23.9 24.9 22.5 24.1
Solomon Islands 11.4 11.9 11.5 11.4 11.6 11.8 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea 40.0 42.4 46.2 44.4 44.3 39.7
Brunei Darussalam 7.0 7.8 7.3 7.2 7.3 7.4 Republic of Korea 24.5 25.0 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.5
Bulgaria 27.3 24.8 23.1 24.1 22.3 21.1 Kuwait 65.9 65.4 70.1 56.9 67.4 65.0
Myanmar 30.7 33.5 35.7 32.9 31.1 33.7 Kyrgyzstan 28.7 29.7 28.0 27.0 26.9 28.2
Burundi 34.9 36.5 37.4 35.9 36.3 37.3 Lao People’s Democratic Republic 19.5 21.9 22.9 21.1 19.6 21.8
Belarus 21.8 21.2 21.4 21.5 20.2 18.1 Lebanon 30.0 30.3 31.8 31.7 32.3 30.7
Cambodia 25.1 28.3 28.4 26.0 25.8 27.2 Lesotho 24.2 23.5 25.3 28.5 30.2 25.8
Cameroon 56.5 58.0 57.3 55.7 66.8 64.3 Latvia 17.2 16.8 17.0 17.9 15.4 14.4
Canada 8.5 8.5 8.0 7.9 7.7 6.7 Liberia 46.7 45.0 43.2 38.1 54.9 52.0
Cabo Verde 60.7 64.2 60.6 60.0 72.5 62.1 Libya 38.9 37.6 45.1 43.6 40.5 46.4
Central African Republic 40.9 41.3 42.1 39.6 43.9 42.9 Lithuania 14.0 13.7 13.8 14.2 12.8 11.7
Sri Lanka 21.3 22.4 22.6 20.7 19.9 16.8 Luxembourg 13.3 11.9 11.7 10.5 11.1 10.2
Chad 57.6 62.1 59.3 54.8 70.7 66.8 Madagascar 16.0 15.4 17.7 16.5 19.1 17.9
Chile 24.8 24.1 25.9 25.1 26.6 26.3 Malawi 25.6 27.5 24.7 25.2 26.2 24.6
China 51.7 53.5 58.6 56.3 54.1 48.8 Malaysia 15.0 17.1 16.1 15.3 16.5 17.2
Colombia 21.0 20.1 20.3 19.9 19.3 19.0 Maldives 10.8 11.5 11.2 10.3 10.0 10.4
Comoros 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.8 16.3 15.5 Mali 61.2 58.8 53.5 56.3 66.6 63.1
Congo 43.1 42.8 46.0 46.1 43.8 44.4 Malta 17.2 15.6 15.3 14.0 14.7 13.1
Democratic Republic of the Congo 42.2 43.0 44.5 43.5 43.0 43.3 Mauritania 72.4 73.7 72.9 77.3 80.7 78.1
Costa Rica 20.6 19.4 19.6 19.2 18.8 18.6 Mauritius 8.8 9.4 9.8 9.6 9.6 9.5
Croatia 21.9 19.6 19.4 18.8 18.9 17.7 Mexico 25.9 24.1 24.8 23.8 23.1 22.8
Cuba 22.5 23.0 22.9 22.8 23.0 22.7 Monaco 15.9 14.0 13.6 12.1 12.8 11.5
Cyprus 19.7 18.7 17.8 17.1 17.9 15.6 Mongolia 58.8 61.5 58.3 55.3 55.8 60.0
Czechia 19.8 18.2 17.8 17.9 16.9 15.8 Republic of Moldova 17.2 16.5 16.4 16.6 15.5 14.1
Benin 36.4 34.2 35.9 33.0 39.3 38.8 Montenegro 24.9 22.9 21.5 21.4 20.8 19.4
Denmark 13.3 11.4 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.1 Morocco 24.1 22.9 26.2 26.1 28.3 28.6
Dominica 20.9 20.7 20.7 20.7 21.7 21.6 Mozambique 20.6 21.1 21.1 20.2 21.9 19.9
Dominican Republic 16.6 16.5 16.5 16.6 16.8 16.5 Oman 40.1 41.6 40.9 37.8 44.2 41.3
Ecuador 18.4 20.2 19.1 19.7 19.5 19.7 Namibia 21.4 19.1 20.0 19.3 23.6 20.5
El Salvador 33.5 31.0 32.2 29.8 29.6 29.3 Nauru 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.3 7.7 8.2
Equatorial Guinea 40.3 39.1 38.2 39.6 45.1 45.0 Nepal 68.3 74.5 79.8 87.7 82.0 88.0
Ethiopia 29.3 29.7 28.9 28.7 31.5 31.1 Netherlands 15.6 13.9 13.2 12.4 13.0 12.0
Eritrea 33.4 33.3 35.0 31.2 35.3 35.4 Vanuatu 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.0 11.1
Estonia 8.2 7.9 8.0 8.6 7.2 6.7 New Zealand 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.7
Fiji 11.1 11.2 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 Nicaragua 25.4 24.0 24.4 23.0 22.6 22.6
357
Statistical Annex
Table C.2:Continued
Region/Country 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Region/Country 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Niger 82.2 75.8 67.1 65.9 89.6 89.4 Zimbabwe 23.6 24.6 23.6 24.1 25.5 24.6
Nigeria 45.4 43.7 43.9 43.4 49.3 47.1 Spain 12.5 11.4 11.0 9.9 10.4 9.5
Norway 10.2 8.9 8.6 8.3 8.1 7.6 South Sudan 33.4 33.3 32.9 30.4 36.5 34.6
Micronesia (Federated States of) 10.6 10.5 10.8 10.6 10.9 10.8 Sudan 39.8 40.4 40.8 35.3 44.4 43.0
Palau 7.1 7.5 7.4 7.9 8.6 8.7 Suriname 28.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 30.6 30.2
Pakistan 54.6 57.3 59.4 64.1 60.1 62.6 Eswatini 20.4 19.9 21.1 19.9 23.0 19.8
Panama 16.0 15.1 15.3 15.1 14.8 14.5 Sweden 7.6 6.6 6.4 6.8 6.3 6.0
Papua New Guinea 12.0 12.5 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.2 Switzerland 13.9 12.6 12.1 11.2 11.4 10.3
Paraguay 14.8 14.3 13.1 13.2 12.6 12.0 Syrian Arab Republic 34.4 34.8 36.0 36.1 37.0 35.6
Peru 30.9 32.6 32.0 33.3 32.7 33.3 Tajikistan 48.6 49.7 46.8 44.7 45.5 46.5
Philippines 22.7 24.6 24.5 22.8 22.2 23.7 Thailand 28.6 32.0 33.0 30.2 28.4 31.9
Poland 27.8 25.5 24.1 23.8 23.5 21.9 Togo 42.5 40.6 41.9 38.1 46.5 46.1
Portugal 11.1 10.0 10.1 9.0 9.3 8.4 Tonga 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.7 11.1
Guinea-Bissau 51.7 48.8 50.0 50.2 60.2 55.0 Trinidad and Tobago 23.5 23.6 24.1 24.2 24.9 24.4
Timor-Leste 17.5 18.2 17.9 16.1 16.2 17.7 United Arab Emirates 40.7 41.8 42.8 38.3 46.0 42.2
Qatar 77.4 82.7 88.8 73.0 89.0 81.6 Tunisia 28.8 27.0 30.4 31.0 30.4 32.5
Romania 19.5 17.4 16.5 16.7 16.2 15.7 Turkey 34.1 35.9 35.5 37.1 38.0 36.9
Russian Federation 12.9 12.9 13.2 13.0 11.9 11.2 Turkmenistan 34.8 36.0 33.9 32.4 32.3 33.3
Rwanda 36.2 38.6 38.3 38.2 38.3 39.4 Uganda 39.9 42.1 40.5 41.1 43.9 45.7
Saint Kitts and Nevis 8.2 8.6 8.5 8.9 9.3 9.7 Ukraine 17.8 17.0 17.2 17.1 16.3 14.9
Saint Lucia 22.9 22.8 22.7 23.0 23.8 22.9 North Macedonia 44.0 40.0 36.9 38.4 35.7 33.6
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 22.6 22.7 22.7 22.9 23.4 23.1 Egypt 62.5 65.9 71.8 69.4 75.3 73.0
San Marino 8.6 8.9 8.7 9.1 9.9 10.1 United Kingdom of Great Britain and 13.3 12.0 11.8 10.6 10.9 10.5
Northern Ireland
Sao Tome and Principe 35.7 30.4 36.5 35.8 37.0 38.4
United Republic of Tanzania 23.2 24.5 23.8 24.2 24.0 24.6
Saudi Arabia 62.8 66.8 69.0 58.2 70.9 64.0
United States of America 9.6 9.2 8.8 8.8 8.5 7.7
Senegal 56.0 57.2 56.5 60.9 65.8 59.8
Burkina Faso 50.4 48.3 44.4 45.4 56.7 54.2
Serbia 32.4 29.0 27.2 27.8 26.5 25.2
Uruguay 9.3 9.2 9.9 9.7 9.9 10.0
Seychelles 13.9 13.6 12.5 12.1 12.8 13.7
Uzbekistan 34.6 36.2 34.0 32.1 32.2 33.9
Sierra Leone 51.4 49.0 47.4 45.1 58.5 56.0
Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 22.6 21.5 21.5 21.1 20.5 20.1
Singapore 13.3 15.4 14.3 14.2 17.0 17.2
Samoa 10.8 10.8 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.0
Slovakia 22.6 20.3 20.0 19.5 19.2 18.3
Yemen 40.6 43.3 42.7 37.9 44.6 40.3
Viet Nam 22.8 24.5 25.1 23.0 22.5 23.7
Zambia 29.0 29.6 29.4 27.8 30.0 29.4
Slovenia 20.9 18.6 18.7 18.4 17.9 16.8
Somalia 22.9 22.4 19.6 21.2 26.4 27.7 Source: United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD), SDG Indicators Global Database,
South Africa 26.8 26.1 26.8 26.9 30.9 29.4 last update December 2021.
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387
Envisaging
The emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 created a temporary crisis of confidence in the future of
cities. However, a broad consensus is that urbanization remains a powerful twenty-first century mega-trend; and
that well-planned towns and cities remain central to the sustainable development trajectory. There is a sense of
optimism that the crisis may provide us with the opportunity to build back differently, more inclusively, greener
and safer.
World Cities Report 2022: Envisaging the Future of Cities seeks to provide greater clarity and insights into the
future of cities based on existing trends, challenges and opportunities, as well as disruptive conditions,
including the valuable lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic, and suggests ways that cities can be better
prepared to address a wide range of shocks and transition to sustainable urban futures. The Report proposes a
state of informed preparedness that provides us with the opportunity to anticipate change, correct the course of
action and become more knowledgeable of the different scenarios or possibilities that the future of cities offers.
Building economic, social and environmental resilience, including appropriate governance and institutional
structures, must be at the heart of the future of cities. Economic resilience with new fiscal sustainability
frameworks, societal resilience with universal social protection schemes, climate resilience with greener
investments and stronger multilevel collaboration to confront future shocks—these are the main elements of a
resilient future that can withstand and respond to the various threats and shocks facing urban areas.
The Report identifies three possible scenarios of urban futures: high damage, pessimistic and optimistic.
Avoiding the high damage scenario and manifesting an optimistic urban future requires collaborative,
well-coordinated and effective multilateral interventions. The response to the current urban crisis can lead to a
collective reprioritization of cities across the world towards shared prosperity and inclusion.
The Report shows that the path to sustainable urban futures will be determined by inclusive and transformative
policies to eradicate poverty and inequality; produce urban economies that provide opportunities for all;
generate greener investment for sustainable consumption and production patterns; pursue responsive urban and
territorial planning; implement collaborative and integrated governance; prioritize public health; deploy inclusive
innovation and technology; and build resilience across multiple dimensions. During the Decade of Action
(2020–2030), cities and subnational governments must urgently adopt approaches that will foster the optimistic
scenario of urban futures. The localization and effective implementation of the New Urban Agenda serves as a
framework for integrating the interrelated components that constitute these pathways.
UNITED NATIONS HUMAN SETTLEMENTS PROGRAMME HS Number: HS/004/22E ISBN 978-92-1-132894-3

P.O. Box 30030, Nairobi 00100 ISBN Number(Series): 978-92-1-133395-4
E: [email protected] ISBN Number: 978-92-1-132894-3
www.unhabitat.org
@UNHABITAT
9 789211 328943

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Envisaging

the Future of Cities

World Cities Report 2022

First published 2022 by United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat)

All rights reserved

United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat)

In 2016, the international community adopted the New Urban

Despite progress since then, the COVID-19 pandemic and

Local is the space where we connect the dots. Cities and

These steps will help cities adapt and respond to shocks

In February 2020, as UN-Habitat announced that the 2022

At the peak of the pandemic, what were once bustling cities

If the world were to experience another pandemic or major

The answer lies with what we have learned and adopted

The vision of sustainable and equitable

Authors: UN-Habitat Core Team

Contributors: UN-Habitat Staff

Administrative Support Team

IT Support for Expert Group Meetings

International Advisory Board

Communications and Media Team

Design and Layout: Peter Cheseret; Michael Lusaba

7.3 Envisaging Health for Sustainable Urban Futures.............................................................................................................................................233

List of Boxes, Figures, Maps and Tables

Figure 5.2: Models of net zero development in urban areas.................................................................................................................................. 145

Acronyms and Abbreviations

LGBTQI lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer and intersex

Key Findings and Messages

Chapter 1 opportunities for all; adopt environmental policies and actions

Economic resilience with new fiscal sustainability frameworks, Chapter 2

Post-COVID recovery should ensure a transition to

become feasible and be initiated without substantive reform

4. A business-as-usual approach will result in a pessimistic scenario of urban futures

2. Building economic, social and environmental resilience, including appropriate governance

Global collapse of ocean fisheries before 2050 90

Accelerating climate change 89

There will be increasing inequity, tension and social strife 86

Persistent poverty and hunger amid riches 86

Two-thirds of world population will be under water stress 83

Continued lack of understanding of the complex non-linear dynamics of ecosystems 80

Source: UNDESA, 2014a.

Figure 1.1: Urban and rural population of the world (1950-2030)

Source: UNDESA, 2019b.

However, current plans by governments to produce fossil Current plans by governments to

the COVID-19 pandemic, many urban dwellers, especially

Rapid urbanization and the globalized nature of cities

Subway train passengers with protective

Box 1.1: Five lessons from the COVD-19 pandemic

Table 1.2: Urban population and level of urbanization (2015–2050)

Oceania 26 28 30 32 34 36 39 41 68.1 68.2 68.5 68.9 69.4 70.2 71.1 72.1

Source: UNDESA, 2019b.

Table 1.3: Urban rate of change 2015–2050

World 1.90 1.73 1.58 1.45 1.33 1.22 1.13 1.48

Africa 3.58 3.44 3.32 3.19 3.04 2.89 2.71 3.17

Asia 2.16 1.84 1.58 1.35 1.15 0.98 0.84 1.41

Europe 0.35 0.30 0.28 0.26 0.25 0.22 0.17 0.26

Oceania 1.42 1.30 1.24 1.18 1.15 1.12 1.07 0.89

Source: UNDESA, 2019b.

1.3.1 The state of urbanization in developed