Equity Research Report - P&G Health
Equity Research Report - P&G Health
Equity Research Report - P&G Health
Stock Info PGHH’s recent results, its management comments in the AGM and the annual report
Bloomberg PG IN offer an encouraging outlook pointing towards a revival in sales and earnings
Equity Shares (m) 32 momentum, in our view. Of particular interest are some key points:
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 322.2 / 4.6 The aggression demonstrated by the PGHH management in recent quarters on
52-Week Range (INR) 11000 / 8714 increase in ad spends, new launches and price cuts, wherever required.
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 3/-3/2
Arresting the dip in Whisper’s market share and achieving growth in share
12M Avg Val (INR M) 72
over the past six months.
Free float (%) 29.4
Increase in distribution of Vicks and Whisper to 3.5m outlets and 2m outlets,
Financials Snapshot (INR b) respectively, from 2m and 1.4m outlets four years ago.
Y/E June 2018 2019E 2020E Continued market share gain in Vicks. New product - Vicks Baby Rub, launched
Sales 24.6 29.1 33.6 in FY18 is reportedly doing very well.
EBITDA 6.3 8.1 9.6
Recent change at the CEO level has made PGHH more dynamic than in the
Adj. PAT 3.7 5.2 6.2
Adj. EPS (INR)
recent past.
117.8 157.0 191.6
EPS Gr. (%) -11.5 33.3 22.0
PGHH intends to launch their sanitary napkin recycling program in 10 major
BV/Sh. (INR) 248.2 298.1 357.5 cities across the world by 2030; India will be one of the priority countries with
RoE (%) 56.3 59.0 58.5 launch in 2019. The company also aims to use 100% renewable or recyclable
RoCE (%) 60.2 60.4 60.2 materials for its products and packaging; cut greenhouse gas emissions by
P/E (x) 84.4 63.3 51.9 half, power their plants with 100% renewable energy and source at least 5b
P/BV (x) 40.1 33.3 27.8 liters of water from circular sources and design products.
Shareholding pattern (%)
While we wait to see if 20% sales growth witnessed in 1QFY19 (June year-end)
As On Sep-18 Jun-18 Sep-17 is sustainable, there seems little doubt that revenue and earnings growth
Promoter 70.6 70.6 70.6 prospects of the company are seeing a revival after a couple of tepid years.
DII 10.1 10.1 9.6 While valuations of 51.7x FY20 EPS implies that near-term upside is limited,
3.7 3.6 3.9
two factors make PGHH an attractive long-term core holding: (1) Huge
FII
15.6 15.6 15.8
category growth potential in the Feminine Hygiene segment (~67% of sales)
Others
and potential for market share growth because of its considerable moats, and
FII Includes depository receipts
(2) Potentially huge margin gains from premiumization in Feminine Hygiene
Stock Performance (1-year) over the longer term. Increasing pace of distribution expansion, continuing
P & G Hygiene strong pace of category development efforts in schools to boost awareness
Sensex - Rebased
and growth, rising ad spends after a lull in preceding years, healthy pipeline of
10,900
new products and willingness to take price cuts whenever required to boost
10,300
growth are all encouraging developments that should aid rapid growth for the
9,700
company over the long term.
9,100
8,500
Jul-18
Apr-18
Jan-18
Jan-19
Oct-18
New initiatives
During FY18, the annual report stated that PGHH strengthened value
proposition on their longer length offerings in choice line-up as consumers are
shifting towards longer length pads for a better protection experience.
Three launches/ initiatives in this segment by PGHH in FY18.
1. Whisper Choice Ultra (price reduced by 10%).
2. Launched Ultra Soft (similar to cotton top sheet).
3. Launched panty liners (an adjacency) for non- period wear.
The company launched Whisper Choice Aloe Vera in 1HFY19, its first product in
the naturals segment.
PGHH built on the success of its Whisper portfolio expansion by extending it
from ‘Period protection’ to overall ‘Feminine Wellness’ via the launch of
Whisper Daily Liners in top channels.
8 January 2019 2
P&G Hygiene and Healthcare
4.3 5.3 6.2 8.1 10.9 13.5 15.3 16.2 16.6 16.5
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Impact of GST reduction announced after the end of the financial year
GST in sanitary napkins is now exempt from the earlier levy of 12%. The
company has also taken price reduction whenever required. However, since the
definition now says that the category is exempt and not zero GST, the input tax
credit availed earlier is not available.
Feminine Hygiene sales (%) Healthcare sales (%) Old spice (%)
Health Care business (32% of sales in FY18) - Key points discussed in the
Annual report and AGM
PGHH continued to grow share in double-digits in the Cough & Cold category
(excluding Cough Syrup) with a strong off take on the strength of its equity and
portfolio, which includes Vicks VapoRub, Vicks Cough Drops, Vicks Action 500
Advanced, Vicks Inhaler, and Vicks BabyRub – its new launch in FY17-18.
Across the three sub segments - VapoRub, Cough Drops and tablets - the
company reportedly gained 0.5-4% market share in FY18.
Vicks BabyRub is doing extremely well; the company even launched a smaller
pack two months ago.
Management revealed that Vicks now reaches 3.5m outlets, up from our
estimate of ~2m four years ago.
Growth was driven by a combination of plans to win consumers, winning versus
competition and winning in whitespaces with the launch of Vicks BabyRub.
Vicks Rubs grew penetration beyond the company’s category Development
Index program for the second year in a row, continuing to grow share in the
8 January 2019 3
P&G Hygiene and Healthcare
Financial Year 2017-18. Vicks Cough Drops’ off take growth was strong with
share gain in the cough lozenges category in a year of competitive launches.
Adjusted for Ind-AS and GST accounting impact (which is not visible in the
reported data below) sales have been fairly healthy in healthcare segment (32%
of sales in FY18) with Vicks Vaporub, in particular, driving share growth strongly.
Share of Vicks Vaporub to healthcare segment is 58% of sales in FY18, from 52%
in FY13. Share of tablets has come down as a proportion of segmental sales.
Exhibit 3: Vicks Vaporub forms the majority of the healthcare business, contributing to
58% of sales
Exhibit 4: The healthcare segment saw a growth of 8%YoY in Exhibit 5: Ointments and creams saw a strong growth of
FY18 to INR7.9b 10.6% YoY in FY18
Healthcare sales (INR b) Growth (%) Ointments and Creams (INR b) Growth (%)
3.5 4.0 4.1 4.9 5.7 6.4 7.4 6.8 7.3 7.9 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.4 3.0 3.3 3.9 3.7 4.1 4.6
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 6: Cough drops contributed 35.4% to sales in FY18 and Exhibit 7: Tablets saw growth of 2.6% YoY in FY18 despite the
saw a growth of 5% YoY low base of a 24% decline in FY17
1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
8 January 2019 4
P&G Hygiene and Healthcare
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
8 January 2019 5
P&G Hygiene and Healthcare
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Source: Company, MOSL
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
8 January 2019 6
P&G Hygiene and Healthcare
role, he was leading the P&G business in Indonesia where he led strong sales
growth, share turnaround, strong value creation and cash productivity.
Mr. Ishan Sonthalia ceased to be the Company Secretary and Compliance Officer
of the company effective 31 March 2018. Ms. Flavia Machado has been
appointed as the Company Secretary and Compliance Officer effective 18
September 2018.
Mainly due to the sharp increase YoY in other expenses and increase in ad
spends off a low base, there was an EBITDA margin decline in FY18 leading to
the first year of EBITDA decline since the massive price cut led impact in FY11.
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
8 January 2019 7
P&G Hygiene and Healthcare
4.0
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Sharp reduction in other income, along with the absolute 5.5% EBITDA decline
meant that PAT declined in double-digits YoY in FY18.
Exhibit 14: Adj. PAT declined sharply by 13.4% YoY in FY18 to INR3.7b
35.7 48.6
19.9 22.1
11.6 12.1 14.6
2.4
-13.4
-24.2
1.8 2.0 1.5 1.8 2.0 3.0 3.5 4.2 4.3 3.7
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Balance Sheet-Working capital improves YoY, cash payout also boosts ROCE
Negative Net Working Capital days declined to 14 days in FY18 from eight days
in FY17.
Reduction in inventory days and higher creditor days led to the improvement.
From a longer-term perspective, FY18 goes back to the trend of double-digit
negative NWC days witnessed by the company before FY17.
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P&G Hygiene and Healthcare
Exhibit 15: Sharp improvement in working capital, with cash conversion cycle down to
negative 14 days in FY18
Inventory days Debtor days Creditor days Cash conversion cycle
57 62 58 57
52 56 54
50 47
39
24 21 22 22 23 21 20 21 24 22 22 21
14 15 19 16
8 10 11 11
(3)
(13) (13) (15)
(19) (24)
(26) (29)
(8)
(14)
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Massive special dividend payout in May 2017 means that return ratios were
significantly higher in FY18 compared to the preceding years, despite tepid P&L
performance.
44.9
40.6 41.0 56.3
34.0
45.5 27.9 27.1 30.0 28.6
41.0 26.5
39.7
33.4
26.6 27.9 27.1 29.5 28.2
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Source: Company, MOSL
Gross fixed asset turnover (x) Net fixed asset turnover (x)
8.6
7.9 7.5
7.1 7.2 7.0 7.1
6.5
5.9
5.3
4.5 4.8 4.5
3.5 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.6 3.7
3.2
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Source: Company, MOSL
8 January 2019 9
P&G Hygiene and Healthcare
Exhibit 18: Other assets grew 20.7% YoY in FY18 after a couple of preceding years of
decline
20.6 20.7
14.2 10.4 8.1
-4.8
-39.0
-16.4
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Increase in other assets YoY was not on account of loans to related parties,
which declined from INR 1.5b in FY17 to INR 1b in FY18 but was on account of
higher advance tax paid.
Exhibit 19: Breakdown of other assets & loans over the past five years
Particulars (INR m) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Loans & Advances
Loan to related party 4,300 4,832 4,632 2,417 1,469 1,009
Other deposits 936 1,050 1,026 775 723 900
Balances with custom & excise 88 96 21 72 120 583
Advance tax paid 864 847 1,739 1,070 1,436 1,958
Total loans & advances 6,188 6,826 7,418 4,334 3,748 4,450
Other assets
Interest accrued on Loan to fellow subsidiary 53 62 9 163 52 135
Interest accrued on bank deposits 1 0 1 1 2 2
Others 2 7 26 53 2 5
Total other assets 56 69 36 217 56 142
Total other assets & loans 6,245 6,894 7,454 4,550 3,803 4,591
Source: Company, MOSL
Other comments
Forex income declined sharply YoY in FY18, whereas forex expenses, already a
high number at 20.2% of sales in FY17 increased further to 22.8% of sales in
FY18.
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P&G Hygiene and Healthcare
Exhibit 21: Forex expense to sales increased to 22.8% while Forex income to sales declined
to 1.1%
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Source: Company, MOSL
The company managed to fulfil its CSR obligation of INR 122m for FY18.
Exhibit 22: PGHH left no amount of its prescribed CSR expenditure unspent
Year FY18
Average net profit for last 3 years 6,101
Prescribed CSR expenditure for FY18 (2% of average net profit) 122.0
Total amount actually spent on CSR activities 122.0
Amount unspent Nil
Source: Company, MOSL
Dividend
The Directors recommended a final dividend of` INR40/- for each Equity Share
for the Financial Year ended 30 June 2018. Payout at 35% was lower-than-
expected and harks back to the period before the special dividend was paid.
8 January 2019 11
P&G Hygiene and Healthcare
Environmental Protection:
As the company is on its way to achieve many of its 2020 environmental
sustainability goals, during the last year, the company announced its broad-
reaching global environmental sustainability goals for 2030 titled - Ambition
2030. As a responsible corporate citizen, environmental sustainability is one of
PGHH’s focus areas and it continues to positively impact communities that it
operates in.
P&G’s Ambition 2030 environmental sustainability goals aim to enable and
inspire positive impact while creating value for the company, its partners, and
consumers.
The framework for PGHH’s goals span across four areas – brands, supply chain,
society and employees. It seeks to address two of the world’s most pressing
environmental challenges – finite resources and growing consumption.
The company’s vision is to bring about a positive difference by aiming to use
100% renewable or recyclable materials for its products and packaging; cut
greenhouse gas emissions by half, power its plants with 100% renewable
energy, and source at least 5b liters of water from circular sources and design
products that delight consumers while maximizing conservation of resources.
The new Managing Director, Mr. Madhusudan Gopalan announced the
company’s broad-reaching environmental sustainability goals designed to
enable responsible consumption and sustainable manufacturing:
a) All of P&G’s brands will enable responsible consumption through packaging
that is 100% recyclable or reusable by 2030.
b) As a company, it will launch sanitary napkin recycling programs in 10 major
cities across the world by 2030; with India as one of the priority countries
where PGHH will launch in 2019.
c) By 2030, 100% of P&G’s manufacturing sites across the globe will cut
greenhouse gas emissions in half as compared to their 2010 baseline.
Globally, the company will source at least 5b liters of water by re-using
water it uses in existing operations.
Company’s Head Office in Mumbai reduced its annual energy consumption by
over 23.5% over the last 15 years. The company’s Goa plant is a ‘zero waste to
landfill’ site, which means there is no manufacturing discharge into the
environment.
In the last five years, the Goa plant has reduced its carbon emission by 17.5%.
During this period, the plant also improved its energy and water consumption at
78.9%.
The plant is also leveraging technology, experts, employees and renewable
sources of energy to reduce overall footprint and make its operations more
sustainable.
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P&G Hygiene and Healthcare
8 January 2019 13
P&G Hygiene and Healthcare
Ratios
Y/E June FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Basic (INR)
EPS 106.5 130.0 133.1 117.8 157.0 191.6 229.3
Cash EPS 122.8 146.1 151.7 131.5 178.4 212.1 252.6
BV/Share 414.6 508.9 162.1 248.2 298.1 357.5 428.7
DPS 0.0 36.0 389.0 40.0 111.1 132.3 158.4
Payout (%) 0.0 27.7 292.2 34.0 70.8 69.0 69.0
Valuation (x)
P/E 93.3 76.5 74.7 84.4 63.3 51.9 43.4
Cash P/E 80.9 68.0 65.5 75.6 55.7 46.9 39.4
P/BV 24.0 19.5 61.3 40.1 33.3 27.8 23.2
EV/Sales 13.6 13.7 13.9 13.0 10.8 9.3 7.7
EV/EBITDA 65.3 51.5 48.4 50.7 38.9 32.6 26.8
Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.4 3.9 0.4 1.1 1.3 1.6
FCF per share 131.4 92.5 123.7 116.3 240.4 198.0 244.7
Return Ratios (%)
RoE 29.5 28.2 39.7 56.3 59.0 58.5 58.4
RoCE 30.0 28.6 41.0 60.2 60.4 60.2 59.9
Working Capital Ratios
Asset Turnover (x) 1.7 1.4 4.6 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9
Inventory (Days) 19 18 24 22 22 22 22
Debtor (Days) 16 19 22 21 21 21 21
Creditor (Days) 47 51 54 57 57 57 57
Leverage Ratio (x)
Debt/Equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8 January 2019 14
P&G Hygiene and Healthcare
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P&G Hygiene and Healthcare
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8 January 2019 16