SIMULATION

SOLUTION
Demand No of days Probability Cumulative Probability Random Number
Interval

5 4 4/200 = 0.02 0.02 00 – 1

6 10 10/200 = 0.05 0.07 2–6

7 16 16/200 = 0.08 0.15 7 – 14

8 50 50/200 = 0.25 0.40 15 – 39

9 62 62/200 = 0.31 0.71 40 – 70

10 38 38/200 = 0.19 0.90 71 – 89

11 12 12/200 = 0.06 0.96 90 – 95

12 8 8/200 = 0.04 1 96 - 99

Total 200
Days Random Number Demand

1 61 9

2 74 10

3 24 8

4 3 6

5 59 9

6 16 8

7 84 10

8 92 11

9 52 9

10 7 7
SOLUTION
Daily Demand Probability Cumulative Probability Random Number
Interval

5 0.01 0.01 00-00

10 0.20 0.21 01-20

15 0.15 0.36 21-35

20 0.50 0.86 36-85

25 0.12 0.98 86-97

30 0.02 1 98-99
Days Random Number Demand

1 82 20

2 96 25

3 18 10

4 96 25

5 20 10

6 84 20

7 56 20

8 11 10

9 52 20

10 3 10
Production per day Probability Cumulative Probability Random Number
Interval

95 0.03 0.03 00 – 2

96 0.05 0.08 3–7

97 0.07 0.15 8 – 14

98 0.10 0.25 15 – 24

99 0.15 0.40 25 – 39

100 0.20 0.60 40 – 59

101 0.15 0.75 60 – 74

102 0.10 0.85 75 – 84

102 0.07 0.92 85 – 91

104 0.05 0.97 92 – 96

105 0.03 1 97 - 99
Day Random Number Production Per Day No Of Empty Space No of Cars Waiting
on Ferry

1 97 105 ----------------- 4
2 02 95 06 --------------
3 80 102 ----------------- 1
4 66 101 ----------------- -----------------
5 96 104 ----------------- 3
6 55 100 1 ----------------
7 50 100 1 ----------------
8 29 99 2 ----------------
9 58 100 1 -----------------
10 51 100 1 ----------------
11 04 96 5 ----------------
12 86 103 ---------------- 2
13 24 98 3 ----------------
14 39 99 2 -----------------
15 47 100 1 -----------------
Total 23 10
Nature of illness Probability Cumulative Random Number
Probability Interval

Filling 0.40 0.40 00 – 39

Crowning 0.15 0.55 40 – 54

Cleaning 0.15 0.70 55 – 69

Extraction 0.10 0.80 70 – 79

Checkup 0.20 1 80 – 99
S.NO Random Nature of Time Patient Treatment Waiting Time
Number illness Arrived
Start End Doctor Patient

1 40 Crowning 60 8:00 8:00 9:00 -------------- --------------

2 82 Checkup 15 8:30 9:00 9:15 -------------- 30

3 11 Filling 45 9:00 9:15 10:00 -------------- 15

4 34 Filling 45 9:30 10:00 10:45 -------------- 30

5 25 Filling 45 10:00 10:45 11:30 -------------- 45

6 66 Cleaning 15 10:30 11:30 11:45 -------------- 60

7 17 Filling 45 11:00 11:45 12:30 -------------- 45

8 79 Extraction 45 11:30 12:30 1:15 -------------- 60

 Rained Previously (Table-1)

Event Probability Cumulative Random Number

Probability Interval

No rain 0.50 0.50 00 – 49

1 cm rain 0.25 0.75 50 – 74

2 cm rain 0.15 0.90 75 – 89

3 cm rain 0.05 0.95 90 – 94

4 cm rain 0.03 0.98 95 – 97

5 cm rain 0.02 1 98 – 99
 No Rained Previously (Table-2)

Event Probability Cumulative Random Number

Probability Interval

No rain 0.75 0.75 00 – 74

1 cm rain 0.15 0.90 75 – 89

2 cm rain 0.06 0.96 90 – 95

3 cm rain 0.04 1 96 – 99
Days Random Number Rainfall Reference Table
1 67 No Rain 2
2 63 No Rain 2
3 39 No Rain 2
4 55 No Rain 2
5 29 No Rain 2
6 78 1 cm Rain 2
7 70 1 cm Rain 1
8 06 No Rain 1
9 78 1 cm Rain 2
10 76 2 cm Rain 1
Total 5 cm Rain
Sales (Units) Probability Cumulative Random Number
Probability Interval
27 0.10 0.10
00 – 9
28 0.25
0.15 10 – 24
29 0.20 0.45
25 – 44
30 0.35 0.80
45 – 79
31 0.15 0.95
80 – 94
32 0.05 1 95 – 99
Days Random Estimated Sales Profit and loss per day with production
Number (Unit) 30 units 29 units
1 10 28 28 * 10 – 2 * 15 = 250 28 * 10 – 1 * 15 = 265

2 99 32 30 * 10 – 2 * 5 = 290 29 * 10 – 3 *5 = 275

3 65 30 30 * 10 = 300 29 * 10 – 1 * 5 = 285

4 99 32 30 * 10 – 2 * 5 = 290 29 * 10 – 3 * 5 = 275

5 95 32 30 * 10 – 2 * 5 = 290 29 * 10 – 3 * 5 = 275

6 01 27 27 *10 – 3 * 15 = 225 27 * 10 – 2 * 15 = 240

7 79 30 30 * 10 = 300 29 * 10 – 1 * 5 = 285

8 11 28 28 * 10 – 2 * 15 = 250 28 * 10 – 1 * 15 = 265

9 16 28 28 * 10 – 2 * 15 = 250 28 * 10 – 1 * 15 = 265

10 20 28 28 * 10 – 2 * 15 = 250 28 * 10 – 1 * 15 = 265

Total 2695 2695

 Assembly A1
Time Probability Cumulative Random Number
Probability Interval
10 0.10 0.10 00 – 9
11 0.15 0.25 10 – 24
12 0.40 0.65 25 – 64
13 0.25 0.90 65 – 89
14 0.10 1 90 – 99

Assembly A2

Time Probability Cumulative Random Number

Probability Interval
10 0.20 0.20 00-19

11 0.40 0.60 20-59

12 0.20 0.80 60-79

13 0.15 0.95 80-94

14 0.05 1 95-99
 Assembly A1 Assembly A2
Unit Random Number Time Random Number Time Total Time (Minutes)

1 41 12 34 11 23
2 74 13 76 12 25
3 49 12 43 11 23
4 83 13 43 11 24
5 11 11 83 13 24
6 19 11 15 10 21
7 36 12 02 10 22
8 94 14 45 11 25
9 54 12 15 10 22
10 75 13 05 10 23
11 00 10 89 13 23
12 08 10 80 13 23
13 74 13 28 11 24
14 34 12 24 11 23
15 93 14 09 10 24
Expected Time =349/15
Selling Price (Rs.) Probability Cumulative Probability Random Number Interval

3 0.20 0.20 00 – 19

4 0.50 0.70 20 – 69

5 0.30 1 70 – 99

Variable Cost Probability Cumulative Probability Random Number Interval

(Rs.)
1 0.30 0.30 00 – 29

2 0.60 0.90 30 – 89

3 0.10 1 90 – 99

Sales Volume Probability Cumulative Probability Random Number Interval

(Units.)
2000 0.30 0.30 00 – 29

3000 0.30 0.60 30 – 59

5000 0.40 1 60 – 99
S.NO Random Selling Price Random Variable Cost Random Sales
Number (Rs.) Number (Rs.) Number volume

1 81 5 32 2 60 5000

2 04 3 46 2 31 3000

3 67 4 25 1 24 2000

4 10 3 40 2 02 2000

5 39 4 68 2 08 2000

6 59 4 66 2 90 5000

7 12 3 64 2 79 5000

8 31 4 86 2 68 5000

9 82 5 89 2 25 2000

10 11 3 98 3 16 2000
S. No Profit
1 (5 – 2) * 5000 – 4000 = 11000
2 (3 – 2) * 3000 – 4000 = – 1000
3 (4 – 1) * 2000 – 4000 = 2000
4 (3 – 2) * 2000 – 4000 = – 2000
5 (4 – 2)* 2000 – 4000 = 0
6 (4 – 2) * 5000 – 4000 = 6000
7 (3 – 2)* 5000 – 4000 = 1000
8 (4 – 2)* 5000 – 4000 = 6000
9 (5 – 2)* 2000 – 4000 = 2000
10 (3 – 3)* 2000 – 4000 = – 4000