Hartz Reforms and Their Lessons For The Uk
Hartz Reforms and Their Lessons For The Uk
Hartz Reforms and Their Lessons For The Uk
GLYN GASKARTH
THE AUTHOR
Glyn Gaskarth is the Director of Right Resource Consulting Ltd.
He has written for CIVITAS and served as Special Advisor to then
Shadow Home Secretary David Davis MP.
Acknowledgements
I would like to thank John Winter for his generous support for this paper, Tim
Knox for his comments on the text and Tamara Chehayeb Makarem Gaskarth
and Susan Gaskarth for their support during the compilation of this report.
Support towards the publication of this study was given by the Institute for
Policy Research.
The aim of the Centre for Policy Studies is to develop and promote policies that
provide freedom and encouragement for individuals to pursue the aspirations
they have for themselves and their families, within the security and obligations
of a stable and law-abiding nation. The views expressed in our publications are,
however, the sole responsibility of the authors. Contributions are chosen for their
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ISBN No. 978-1-906996-31-4
Centre for Policy Studies, October 2014
Printed by 4 Print, 138 Molesey Avenue, Surrey
CONTENTS
Summary
1. Introduction 1
Bibliography 61
STYLISTIC NOTE
The full title of the body set up to propose reform of the
German labour market was the Committee for Modern Services
in the Labour Market. This body is commonly referred to as the
Hartz Commission after its chair Peter Hartz. The reforms
became known as the Hartz Reforms. Consequently this paper
refers to the Hartz Commission and the Hartz Reforms
throughout rather than using the official bureaucratic terms.
SUMMARY
• Only a few years after German reunification, the German
economy began to stagnate. Between 1994 and 2002, it grew
by less than the EU average. The GDP growth rate was only
1.6% between 1995 and 2001.
1
economic growth is one of the characteristics of today’s
Germany.”1
1
Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Germany – The stalling economic
engine, 9 December 2002.
http://www.ifw-kiel.de/das-ifw/organisation/siebert/siebert-pdf/stalling.pdf
2
Kiel Institute for the World Economy, op. cit.
3
European Commission, Eurostat, Unemployment Rate 2001-2012.
4
Kiel Institute for the World Economy, op. cit.
5
European Commission, Eurostat, Unemployment Rate 2001-2012.
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php?title=Fil
e:Unemployment_rate,_2001-
2012_(%25).png&filetimestamp=20130627102805
6
Kiel Institute for the World Economy, op. cit.
2
Some mistakes were made. For example, converting East
German Marks with the West German Mark at a rate of 1:1
inflated the value of the East German Mark by 400%. Controlled
for productivity, wages in East Germany were equivalent to 130%
of West German wage rates. However, reunification initially gave
the German economy a significant boost. German GDP grew by
5.7% in 1990 and 5.0% in 1991.7
Benefit levels were high and were of long duration (see Table 1).
The Federal Labour Office (FLO) gave a low priority to job
search assistance and monitoring. Sanctions for failing to meet
job search requirements were rarely applied. Linking
unemployment benefits to the former salary set a high de facto
7
Kiel Institute for the World Economy, op. cit.
8
Ibid.
3
minimum wage, meaning there was little incentive for the
unemployed to find work.
9
Ralf Wilke, Stephan Dlugosz and Gesine Stephan, Fixing the Leak:
Unemployment Incidence Before and After the 2006 Reform of
Unemployment Benefits in Germany, Centre for European Economic
Research December 2009.
http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/29636/1/61581140X.pdf
4
Table 1: Benefits in Germany before the Hartz Reforms
Description Duration Amount
67% of the
Varied previous
Linked to worker
with age income for
Unemployment contributions
but went unemployed
benefits and paid to the
up to 32 with one
unemployed.
months. child; 60% for
the childless.
Began when 57% of
unemployment previous
benefits run out. wage in
Unemployment This was means- cases of a
Indefinite.
assistance tested and worker with
financed from one child;
the federal 53% for the
budget. childless.
70% of the
lowest wage
in the
Means-tested industry
benefits to sector.
ensure decent
Welfare benefits condition of life. 100% of the
For a married lowest wage
worker with one professional
child. in low-paid
sectors e.g.
service
industries.
100% of
Limited to 78 First six
previous
weeks in a months:
Sickness gross wage.
three-year
benefits 80% of
period for the After six
same illness. previous
months:
gross wage.
5
The minimum age to receive 32 months of unemployment
benefit – the maximum duration of unemployment benefits –
was raised to 57 years old in 1997.10 However, unemployed
citizens over the age of 57 continued to be able to stop their job
search and withdraw from official unemployment status and still
receive unemployment benefits. The elderly used these benefits
as a “popular bridge between the exit out of regular
employment and the entry into old age pension. Unemployment
incidence was high among older workers with long tenure, and
their labour force participation rate was also exceptionally
low.”11 Unemployment rates for the elderly rose to between 20%
and 25% in the mid-1990s.12
10
Ralf Wilke, Stephan Dlugosz and Gesine Stephan, op. cit.
11
Ibid.
12
Ibid.
13
Kiel Institute for the World Economy, op. cit.
14
Ibid.
6
Employers responded by shifting lower-value roles abroad and
using cheap capital to invest in technology. Both these responses
contributed to a reduction in the demand for labour in Germany.
The decline in the working age population also began to put
stress on the social security reserve fund. It was reduced in 2001
from one month to 0.8 months; and in 2002 to 0.5 months.15 With
low immigration levels and a low birth rate, the German system of
social security looked unsustainable in the long term.
15
Kiel Institute for the World Economy, op. cit.
7
created an urgent need for that body to be reformed. The FLO
had been found guilty of falsifying its success rate at finding the
unemployed work. This body, employing 90,000 people, had
claimed it had found work for around 51% of the unemployed
cases it dealt with. In fact, it had only found work for around
18%.16 An investigation in February 2002 found that 70% of
employment cases were being mishandled.17 German Socio-
Economic Panel data indicated that in the early 2000s, 60% of
the changes in the unemployment rate were due to increases in
the “inflow rate” (i.e. the number of people in the workforce)
rather than changes in the “outflow rate” (i.e. more unemployed
people finding work).18 The OECD suggested that: “The parties
running the system arguably had little interest in reforming it,
since most of these training and other programmes were run by
the social partners themselves, who controlled around 60% of
the further education sector.”19
16
Deutsche Welle, Schröder Plans to Revamp Labour Office, 24 February
2002.
http://www.dw.de/schr%C3%B6der-plans-to-revamp-labour-office/a-
448171
17
Verena Di Pasquale, Federal Employment Service to be reformed,
European industrial relations observatory on-line, 4 April 2002.
http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/eiro/2002/03/feature/de0203204f.htm
18
Matthias S. Hertweck and Oliver Sigrist, The Aggregate Effects of the
Hartz Reforms in Germany, SOEP papers on Multidisciplinary Panel
Data Research at DIW Berlin, 21 December 2012.
http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.414559.de/diw_
sp0532.pdf
19
William Tompson, The Political Economy of Reform: Lessons from
Pensions, Product Markets and Labour Markets in Ten OECD Countries,
OECD, 2009.
http://www.oecd.org/site/sgemrh/46190166.pdf
8
Klaus Zimmerman of the Institute for Labour explained how
“assignment to programs [was] based on the caseworkers’
discretion” with “no systematic individual profiling” or
“systematic evaluation.”20 This provided the impetus to establish
an ad hoc body outside the traditional corporatist structures –
the Hartz Commission – to investigate the problem of high
unemployment.
A corporatist solution?
Chancellor Schröder reconvened an “Alliance for Jobs”. Its first
meeting was in December 1998 and included representatives
from trade unions, employer organisations and the Government.
It was designed to achieve consensus-based reform.
20
Klaus F Zimmerman, Structural reforms and the functioning of the
Functioning of the Labour Market, Institute for the Study of Labour (IZA)
and University of Bonn, LAC-EU Economic Forum 2013, 22 January 2013.
21
The Economist, “The Sick Man of the Euro”, 3 June 1999.
9
However it failed to accomplish this. Trade Unions wanted large
companies’ boards to be included in the talks to make
agreements comprehensive and binding. Agreements made to
increase vocational apprenticeships and reduce overtime were
non-binding. Employers’ associations wanted wage policy
guidelines to be agreed in the meetings but trade unions
wanted to continue collective bargaining between trade unions
and companies on an industry basis. In the run-up to the 2002
Federal Election, it even stopped meeting (there was no
meeting between January 2002 and December 2002).22 The SPD
included a call for a continuation of the Alliance meetings in its
manifesto but side-lined the body after their re-election.23
22
Martin Behrens, Torsten Niechoj, Future of national Alliance for Jobs
under debate, European Industrial Relations Observatory On-Line, 7
January 2003.
http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/eiro/2002/12/feature/de0212205f.htm
23
Thorsten Shulten, Tripartite Agreement Establishes National Alliance for
Jobs, European Industrial Relations Observatory On-Line, 28 December
1998.
http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/eiro/1998/12/inbrief/de9812286n.ht
24
Lutz Kaiser, Sweeping Modernisation of Labor Market Policy Proposed,
European Industrial Relations Observatory On-Line, 23 September 2002.
http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/eiro/2002/09/feature/de0209205f.htm
25
Kiel Institute for the World Economy, op. cit.
10
This solution was surprising, not least as the case for more
government spending had been somewhat discredited as both
spending and unemployment increased in the 1990s. The OECD
had criticised the Active Labour Market Policies, in particular the
“extensive public subsidies for short-term work, public job
creation and further training.”26 These combined to create “a
secondary labour market characterised by lock-in effects, zero
(or even negative) post-participation effects and substantial
dead-weight losses.”27
26
William Tompson, op. cit.
27
Ibid.
28
Thorsten Shulten, op. cit.
29
The Economist, “A plan to put Germans back into jobs”, 22 August 2002.
11
market. Created in February 2002, its remit was to tackle the
single issue of high unemployment, in particular:
30
William Tompson, op. cit.
12
2. GERMANY STRIKES BACK:
THE HARTZ REFORMS
The Hartz Commission was composed of 15 experts: two
academics (a law professor and a political scientist), two trade
unionists, one representative of an employers’ organisation,
representatives from management consultancies, company
boards and the Government.
31
Ibid.
13
Table 2: Hartz Commission Recommendations
Reform of the BA
Job Creation Improved Placement
(Federal Labour Office)
Introduction of ‘Personal
Simplification of
Service Agencies’ in Creation of job centres
instruments for
each employment throughout the country.
promoting employment.
district.
Simplification of labour
law, use of advisory
Promotion of part-time teams, and introduction Merger of
employment in domestic of notification unemployment benefits
services (Minijobs). requirement for and welfare benefits.
dismissal and
resignations.
Introduction of self-
employment or family
More effective
employment as a new Expansion of availability
organisation of
form of labour supported of child day-care
workflows and control
by tax incentives and facilities.
activities at the BA.
grants for up to three
years.
Promotion of training
Introduction of company
and employment for
employment ‘balance
young people, and
sheets’ and payment of
development of a
bonuses from the
“bridge” system of
unemployment
employment for older
insurance system to
persons involving grants
those with positive
to older workers who
employment
accept lower paid jobs
development.
or take early retirement.
14
These reforms were implemented in stages between December
2002 and January 2005 through the “Laws for Reform of the Job
Market” (known as Hartz I to IV).
Hartz I-II
Both Hartz I and Hartz II were introduced in December 2002 and
the main provisions are summarised below.
15
Summary of Hartz II reforms
New types of employment, "Minijob" and "Midijob" were created.
These were short-term and part-time roles with higher thresholds
for taxes and social insurance payments for employees and less
worker protection to encourage employers to hire.
32
William Tompson, op. cit.
16
placing the unemployed who found it hardest to find work, e.g.
the young who lacked work experience or the long-term
unemployed who may have fallen out of the habits of work.
The PSAs were created by the state, but could be spun out to
become private entities undertaking contract work for the state.
Their responsibility was to place individuals referred by the FLO
in work. The PSA tender specified which hard-to-place target
groups it would specialise in and their fee would differ
according to prevailing local market conditions and the
characteristics of the unemployed individuals targeted. A PSA
initially received nine- to twelve-month contracts with a
declining monthly fee per case, paid by the FLO. In 2005 this
changed to six-month contracts with a set fee for the duration
(€500).33 A success bonus was paid when the individual was
placed in a job. In periods when the worker was not placed, the
PSA had to demonstrate they were increasing their
employability through training.
33
Janine Leschke, Günther Schmid, Dorit Griga, On the Marriage of
Flexibility and Security: Lessons from the Hartz-reforms in Germany,
WZB Social Science Research Center Berlin, April 2006.
http://skylla.wz-berlin.de/pdf/2006/i06-108.pdf
17
Table 4: Selected socio-economic groups in labour schemes
PSA-average Share of all
TWA-average
from April to unemployed in
in 2002
October 2003 2003
Socio-economic
group
Women 27% 34% 44%
Foreigners 14% 10% 13%
Aged under 25 22% 33% 12%
Aged 50 or older 12% 11% 24%
Without vocational
46% 30% 34%
education
(Formerly) long-term
8% 14% 34%
unemployed
Health-related
Unknown 13% 28%
constraints
Source: WZB Social Science Research Centre Berlin
34
Janine Leschke, Günther Schmid, Dorit Griga, op. cit.
35
Janine Leschke, Günther Schmid, Dorit Griga, op. cit.
36
Directorate General of the Treasury (France), How have the Hartz
Reforms shaped the German labour market?, No 110, March 2013.
http://www.tresor.economie.gouv.fr/File/386657
18
Legitimising the place of marginal work in the labour market
The trade unions viewed the creation of PSAs and the
expansion of temporary work as a threat to their membership.
Few temporary workers were members of trade unions. They
represented a reserve labour force that the unions feared could
be utilised to undercut unionised workers. To ease these fears,
the Government allowed the German Trade Union Federation to
engage in collective bargaining with the two main employers’
associations to form a separate legal arrangement for
temporary workers. Without this agreement, the existing law
would have required equal treatment for agency workers from
their first day. Between 2003 and 2006 the OECD observed a
70% increase in the share of temporary work as a percentage of
German employment – from a small base.37
37
William Tompson, op cit.
38
The Economist, op. cit., 22 August 2002.
39
Janine Leschke, Günther Schmid, Dorit Griga, op. cit.
40
Ibid.
19
estimates that around half of these people were either young
workers under 20, individuals over 64 usually supplementing
another income or people with a second job.41 The maximum
earnings for a Minijob were raised from €325 to €400.42 Up to this
maximum, the employer paid social security contributions and
employees still earned an entitlement to retirement insurance.
41
Ibid.
42
Ibid.
43
Ibid.
44
Ibid.
45
Janine Leschke, Günther Schmid, Dorit Griga, op. cit.
46
Ibid.
20
between 2005 and 2006.47 The Social Science Research Centre
found that three quarters of Minijobbers and 84% of Midijobbers
were women, two thirds of their spouses were employed and the
majority were middle-aged.48 Surveys of the reasons for
individuals entering Mini- and Midijobs showed that a third did so
to improve their work-life balance.49
47
Ibid.
48
Ibid.
49
Ibid.
50
The Economist, op. cit., 22 August 2002.
51
Janine Leschke, Günther Schmid, Dorit Griga, op. cit.
52
Ibid.
21
still receive unemployment assistance and benefits because
they had continued making welfare contributions. This reduced
the disincentive to engage in self-employment. This became a
type of part-time work particularly favoured by women
supplementing existing family income. By September 2005,
236,000 citizens were in receipt of an Ich-AG allowance.53 Until
2005 Ich-AGs were not required to create a business plan. This
was later seen as a mistake, as some businesses were created
without adequate preparation.54
53
Ibid.
54
Ibid.
22
Sanctions for those unwilling to work
Cuts to social security were controversial not least as
Chancellor Schröder had opposed cuts in his 2002 Federal
Election campaign. His unpopularity grew and Chancellor
Schröder resigned as SPD Party Chairman in February 2004.
55
CESifo Group Munich – Center for Economic Studies, DICE Report
2/2005.
http://www.facoltaspes.unimi.it/files/_ITA_/EPS/ochel_2005.pdf
56
Deutsche Welle, op. cit., 9 February 2010.
57
Deutsche Welle, A Quick Guide to ‘Agenda 2010’, 17 October 2003
http://www.dw.de/a-quick-guide-to-agenda-2010/a-988374-1
58
Ibid.
23
The Government financed these measures by selling
government properties and reducing federal subsidies. The
rules requiring mandatory apprenticeships and master
craftsman diplomas were also relaxed to allow tailors and
goldsmiths without these qualifications to enter the marketplace
and compete. Health Insurance Premiums paid by employers
from their gross wage were also reduced in stages from 14.3%
in 2003 to 12.15% in 2006.59 At the same time, the Rürup
Commission, looking at the viability of the social insurance
system, advised increasing the age of pension eligibility from 65
to 67, and reducing the percentage of the recipients’ former
income from 48% to 40.1%.60 A rival commission set up by the
Christian Democrats backed increasing the retirement age to 67
and also advocated a flat healthcare premium.61
59
Deutsche Welle, op. cit., 17 October 2003.
60
Ibid.
61
Ibid.
62
CESifo Group Munich, op. cit.
24
Table 7: Hartz IV Reforms - summary of proposals
Unemployment benefits and welfare benefits were combined
into one single lower payment entitled Unemployment
Benefit II. Previously unemployed German workers could get
half their previous salary in benefits while they were out of
work indefinitely, could turn down jobs that did not match
their specifications or that required a change of location.
Those never employed immediately went on to this scheme;
those previously employed receive benefits linked to their
previous wage for a period up to two years and then went on
Hartz IV. Individuals with savings in excess of €13,000 had to
exhaust the excess before they could receive Hartz IV
benefits. To receive payment the claimant must sign a
contract. This outlined what they were obliged to do to
improve their job situation and the help the state agreed to
provide.
The claimant could be required to take any type of legal job
or face reduction or elimination of benefits. The Labour
Office authorised to conduct unannounced inspections to
check for the presence of other adults at the claimant’s
abode or other signs of unreported earnings to ensure
correct welfare benefits payments.
The administrative work of the Federal unemployment office
and local welfare offices were combined. The Federal Labour
Agency had responsibility for the new Unemployment Benefit II.
25
Individuals with a working spouse and/or assets over €13,000
euro had their eligibility for this benefit reduced or eliminated
respectively.63 These reforms had unfortunate unintended
consequences: they effectively encouraged families to split up
and claim as separate households, they punished families
where one spouse worked and they disincentivised saving
among the working poor.
63
Paul Roderick Gregory, Why Obama Cannot Match Germany’s Jobs
Miracle, Forbes, 5 May 2013.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2013/05/05/why-
obama-cannot-match-germanys-jobs-miracle/
64
Ibid.
65
Ibid.
66
Ibid.
26
to replace a TV or refrigerator, as the benefits were means-
tested and not meant to provide more than the minimum.67
67
Paul Roderick Gregory, op. cit.
68
CESifo, op. cit.
69
Directorate General of the Treasury, op. cit.
27
The creation of public interest employment
In 2005, “one-euro” jobs were created as part of the Hartz IV
reforms. There were 200,000 in the first year and this rose to
320,000 in 2009, before declining sharply in 2011 to 188,000.70
The FEO offered the euro jobs to the unemployed and could
reduce their benefits if claimants refused to do them. There was
no contract of employment. A job-related plan detailed what
was expected of the individual. These roles usually lasted
between six and nine months. Employees were covered by their
employers’ insurance for workplace injuries.
70
Directorate General of the Treasury, op. cit.
71
Working-in-Germany, The One Euro Job.
http://www.working-in-germany.com/ein-euro-job-0132.html
72
Ibid.
73
Ibid.
28
Increased income inequality
These roles, along with reduced benefits and sanctions, have
significantly increased income inequality in Germany, even
though they reduced unemployment. An OECD report in April
2012 found that: “Germany is the only [EU] country that has seen
an increase in labour earnings inequality from the mid-1990s to
the end 2000s driven by increasing inequality in the bottom half
of the distribution.”74
74
Kaja Bonesmo Fredriksen, Income Inequality in the European Union
Economics Department Working Papers No. 952, OECD, 16 April 2012.
http://search.oecd.org/officialdocuments/displaydocumentpdf/?cote=EC
O/WKP(2012)29&docLanguage=En
75
Ibid.
29
better jobs and greater social cohesion, and respect for the
environment."76
Thus, it might be expected that the reforms would not have had
trouble with the European Courts and the European
Commission. However, the European Courts and Commission
did request some alterations to the Hartz legislation. For
example, the Hartz reforms included a regulation specifying that
workers older than 52 (before, the age-limit had been 58) could
76
Deutsche Welle, op cit., 9 February 2010.
77
Sabina Stiller and Minna Van Gerven, The European Employment Strategy
and National Core Executives: Impacts on activation reforms in the
Netherlands and Germany, Journal of European Social Policy, 2012.
http://www.utwente.nl/mb/csd/research/Stiller%20en%20Van%20Gerven
%202012.pdf
78
Kurt Vogler-Ludwig (in cooperation with Simone Leitzke), Discussion
Paper: European Employment Observatory Germany, Job Summit
Promoting the Hartz Reforms Quarterly review of labour market trends
and policies, ECONOMIX Research & Consulting, 2005.
http://www.economix.org/EconomixQuarterlyReviewGermany1.pdf
30
be employed on the basis of a fixed-term contract without time
limit. It was declared void by the European Court of Justice
(ECJ) in 2005. The German Government was required to explore
the introduction of other flexible mechanisms to encourage
79
employment for those over 52 years of age.
79
Janine Leschke, Günther Schmid, Dorit Griga, op. cit.
80
Daniel Brossler, EU Commission presents guidelines, Sueddeutsche.de,
13 January 2014.
http://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/sozialleistungen-fuer-zuwanderer-
eu-kommission-legt-leitfaden-vor-1.1862254
81
Roland Preuss, Brussels calls Hartz IV exam for unemployed migrants,
Sueddeutsche.de, 10 January 2014.
http://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/eu-kommission-bruessel-fordert-
hartz-iv-fuer-arbeitslose-auslaender-1.1859619
31
The challenging creation of a government database
The OECD criticised the Government for the way the Hartz IV
law was introduced. It believed that “little was done to explain
the controversial Hartz IV reform either to the public at large or
to those who would be directly affected by it.”82
82
William Tompson, op. cit.
83
The Economist, “German Labour Market Reform: Hartz and Minds”, 29
December 2004.
http://www.economist.com/node/3522141
84
William Tompson, op. cit.
85
The Economist, op. cit., 29 December 2004.
32
and of limited duration, unemployed persons will more quickly
lower their wage expectations or consider taking jobs that are
in other ways less attractive than those which they formerly
held.”86
86
OECD Factbook 2013, Economic, Environmental and Social Statistics.
87
William Tompson, op. cit. The increase in unemployment occurred
because many of the recipients of social assistance had not previously
been registered as unemployed.
88
Tom Krebs and Martin Scheffel, Macroeconomic Evaluation of Labor
Market Reform in Germany, International Monetary Fund 13th Jacques
Polak Annual Research Conference, 8-9 November 2012.
89
BBC News Online, German Benefit Protesters Contained, 3 January
2005.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4142441.stm
33
affected and explained that the boost to unemployment
numbers was a statistical rearrangement and not an increase in
the number of real unemployed.
90
Ralf Wilke, Stephan Dlugosz and Gesine Stephan, op. cit.
91
William Tompson, op, cit.
34
changes to Unemployment Benefit I are listed by age group
below.
< 45 12 12 0
45-46 18 12 6
47-51 22 12 10
52-54 26 12 14
55-56 26 18 8
> 56 32 18 14
Source: Centre for European Economic Research
The authors of this paper examined the impact of the cut in the
eligibility period for benefits of up to 14 months, depending on
the age of the recipient.93 Between November 2005 and January
2006 the report identified an anticipation effect from the
92
Ralf Wilke, Stephan Dlugosz and Gesine Stephan, op. cit.
93
Ibid.
35
reforms. For the average employee between age 57 and age 64,
the probability of transition to unemployment before the full
implementation of the reforms was 120% higher.94 Following the
reforms implementation, individuals between 57 and 64 were
20% less likely to enter unemployment than without the reform.95
Due to “the highly disputed reform” there was “a considerable
decline in unemployment incidence among older workers.”96
Their study involved a random sample of 2% of employees born
before 1970 aged between 40 and 64. It covered the period
between 2000 and 2007.
94
Ibid.
95
Ibid.
96
Ibid.
97
Centre for European Economic Research, op. cit.
36
report, in style, layout or structure: the summary read more like
a manifesto, ending as it did with an appeal to the
‘professionals of the nation’ to bring forward proposals to
reduce unemployment, and it appeared to be aimed at the
media and the public rather than at policy élites.”98
98
William Tompson, op. cit.
99
Ibid.
100
Ibid.
101
Ibid.
37
functions and installed a new BA management board, made up
of professionals and operating under the same rules on the
separation of executive authority and oversight that applied to
listed companies.”102
102
Ibid.
103
Ralf Wilke, Stephan Dlugosz and Gesine Stephan, op. cit.
38
administered unemployment benefit, while the municipalities
administered social assistance. Combining these two was
difficult. The SPD wanted Unemployment Benefit II to be
controlled by the Federal Employment Office. The Conservative
majority Bundesrat (Upper House of the Federal Parliament)
wanted a municipal-run system.104 A compromise was reached
where 69 municipalities were exempted from the agreed system
and allowed to opt out.105 A Municipal Option Act was introduced
which codified the division of responsibilities between the
Federal Employment Office and the local welfare offices.106
104
William Tompson, op. cit.
105
Ibid.
106
Ibid.
107
The Economist, op. cit., August 22, 2002.
108
European Commission, Eurostat, Unemployment Rate 2001-2012.
109
Ibid.
110
Ibid.
39
to a substantial reduction in the unemployment rate – from 9%
before the reform to 7.78% after the reform.”111 The German
Socio-Economic Panel found that: “Since the implementation of
the Hartz reforms in the mid-2000s, the importance of the
outflow rate has been steadily increasing. The rising importance
of the outflow rate, in conjunction with the falling cyclical
volatility of the inflow rate, indicates a substantial increase in
matching efficiency.”112
111
Tom Krebs and Martin Scheffel, op. cit.
112
Matthias S. Hertweck and Oliver Sigrist, op. cit.
113
Tom Krebs and Martin Scheffel, op. cit.
114
Directorate General of the Treasury (France), op. cit.
40
Chart 1: The Unemployment Rate in Germany 1970-2011
Source: OECD
Did the reforms increase the size of the active labour force?
A study for the French Ministry of the Economy and Finance in
March 2013 found that:
115
Directorate General of the Treasury (France), op. cit.
41
The Reforms and the Social Democratic Party
The labour market reforms split the SDP. In 2005, under the
leadership of Oskar Lafontaine, a former SDP Minister of
Finance, the left of the party formed a new party entitled Labour
and Social Justice – The Electoral Alternative (WASG).
All of the three major parties, the SPD, the CDU and the Green
Party, lost votes and seats in the election. The Greens lost their
position as the third largest party (held since 1994) dropping to
fifth place. The CDU/CSU gained 35% of the vote. The SPD
achieved 34% but the personal hostility between Gerhard
Schröder and Oskar Lafontaine made an SDP/Left Party/Green
party coalition difficult to achieve. Angela Merkel then formed a
Coalition Government including the SPD, in which she became
Chancellor.
42
3. TROUBLE AHEAD:
THREATS TO THE REFORMS
How did German labour costs grow post-Hartz Reforms?
The following graphs demonstrate the impact of the Hartz
Reforms on German economic competitiveness.
116
Kiel Institute for the World Economy, op. cit.
43
Chart 2: Germany: Real Wage and Real GDP per capita
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt: annual real wage index (series: Reallohnindex) and
annual real GDP per capita (series: Bruttoinlandsprodukt) normalised to 1992.
Source: International Monetary Fund, 13th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference
45
effective exchange rate rose by 4.4 per cent. Germany’s internal
devaluation contributed to a big divergence in the two
countries’ relative trade positions. Whereas ten years ago
France and Germany both had small current account
surpluses, France is now running a deficit of around 3 per cent
of GDP, while Germany is running a surplus of 6 per cent [as of
2011].”117
117
Simon Tilford, Why the self-flagellation?, Centre For European Reform,
France: , 10 February 2012.
118
Klaus F Zimmerman, op. cit.
46
• unemployment increased only marginally and was lower than
its pre-crisis value by 2010;
119
European Commission, eurostat, unemployment rates, seasonally
adjusted , October 2013.
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php?title=Fil
e:Unemployment_rates,_seasonally_adjusted,_October_2013.png&fil
etimestamp=20131129085903
120
European Commission, Eurostat, Themes, Youth Unemployment
http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/pdf/themes/21_youth_unemployment.p
df
121
Karl Brenk, Ulf Rinne, Klaus F. Zimmermann, Discussion Paper No. 5780,
Short-Time Work: The German Answer to the Great Recession, Institute
for the Study of Labor, June 2011. http://ftp.iza.org/dp5780.pdf
47
Chart 6: Evolution of the German Labour Force 1992-2007
48
Will the reforms endure?
The SDP has recently been keen to distance itself from the
Hartz reforms, which despite their success, have not been
popular. As some leading academics have noted: “The Hartz
reforms have always been very unpopular among the German
public. This unpopularity has been documented in surveys, but
the best evidence comes from the upcoming National Election
in Germany to be held on 22 September 2013. There is no major
party that dares to run on a platform that openly endorses the
Hartz reforms. Indeed, several parties are trying to win votes by
promising to roll back the Hartz reforms, including the Social
Democrats who initiated the reforms in 2003-2005…”122
122
Tom Kreb and Martin Scheffel, op. cit.
123
Ibid.
124
William Tompson, op. cit.
49
Evidence of this can be found in the recent Grand Coalition
negotiations. In the 2013 post-Federal Elections, the SPD have
secured a minimum wage of €8.50 euros per hour and a
reduction in the retirement age from 67 to 63 for those who
have worked for 45 years.125 This follows the introduction of a
statutory minimum wage in the postal sector in 2007.126
125
BBC News Online, Deal reached on new government for Germany
under Merkel, 27 November 2013,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25116115
126
William Tompson, op. cit.
127
Tom Krebs and Martin Scheffel, op. cit.
50
Similarly, the OECD has found that:
128
OECD Factbook 2013: Economic, Environmental and Social Statistics.
51
4. WHAT CAN BE LEARNT FROM THE
GERMAN EXPERIENCE?
Why can’t France be Germany?
Research by Societé Generale showed that, despite there being
only a 0.3% gap in employment rates between France and
Germany in 2003, this expanded to 10% by 2010.129
129
Gregory White, Why Nicholas Sarkozy Is More Than Happy To Turn The
Economic Reigns Over To Angela Merkel, Business Insider, 1 February
2011.
http://www.businessinsider.com/france-economic-reforms-2011-2
130
Gregory White, op. cit.
52
consumption in Germany had grown by only 4% between 2002
and 2011 but by 17% in France.132
131
Spiegel Online International, Part One: Inside the Elysee: ‘Sarkozy Has
Learned To like Angela Merkel’ and Part Two: Inside the Elysee: The
Crisis Has Helped Sarkozy To Become An Adult, 24 January 2012.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/inside-the-elysee-sarkozy-
has-learned-to-like-angela-merkel-a-810868.html
132
Simon Tilford, op. cit.
133
The Economist, “France’s Presidential Campaign”, 30 January 2012.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/newsbook/2012/01/frances-presidential-
campaign
134
Daniel Flynn, “German boom casts shadow over French election”,
Reuters, 15 February 2012.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/02/15/uk-france-election-germany-
idUKTRE81E0I420120215
135
The Economist, op. cit., 30 January 2012.
53
Sarkozy’s opponents accused him of “capitulation to Germany”.
Francois Hollande’s Campaign Chief Pierre Moscovici believed
“not everything in Germany’s economic model deserves to be
copied.”136 Opinion polls suggested 62% of French voters
thought their nation should take the German approach as an
example. But, of course, President Sarkozy nevertheless lost the
2012 election.
136
Daniel Flynn, op. cit.
54
0.2%. Why the reversal? The Ifo Institute has recorded monthly
declines in German business confidence since May 2014. The
pro-Russian rebellion in Eastern Ukraine had begun in April
2014, following the annexation of the Crimea. The impact of the
economic sanctions over Russian involvement in Ukraine is
difficult to quantify but this could be a factor.
55
the rate rose “faster than average earnings overall.”137 The UK
opt-out from the Social Chapter with its employment and social
rights was ended and these rights were incorporated in The
Treaty of Amsterdam. Now in opposition, the Labour party,
correctly, aims to ensure that working people benefit more from
the UK’s economic growth. Higher welfare benefits are politically
toxic and public finances are constrained, thus the party is
devising means to increase the wages of the working poor to
help them out of poverty.
137
Mike Brewer and Robert Joyce, Welfare Reform and the Minimum
Wage, Institute for Fiscal Studies 2010 Election Briefing Note Number 8.
http://www.ifs.org.uk/bns/bn95.pdf
138
BBC News Online, Ed Miliband unveils ‘Predistribution’ plan to fix
economy, 6 September 2012.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-19503451
139
Matthew Pennycook, What Price A Living Wage? Understanding the
impact of a living wage on firm level wage bills, Resolution Foundation,
May 2012.
56
The second is to raise the minimum wage at an accelerated
rate (as yet unspecified). The Conservatives have also
embraced this movement, with David Cameron declaring in
2010 that the living wage was “an idea whose time has come.”140
Wage remuneration looks set to be a key issue in the next
election.
140
Ibid.
141
Loukas Karabarbounis and Brent Neiman, Shares and the Global Rise
of Corporate Saving Declining, National Bureau of Economic Research
and the University of Chicago, October 2012.
http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/brent.neiman/research/LabShare.pdf
142
Loukas Karabarbounis and Brent Neiman, op. cit.
143
Ibid.
57
Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, shows that the lowest wage
sectors have provided 40 to 50% of the job gains in the
economic recoveries since 1970.144 The UK has the second
highest level of low paid workers among its total workforce, as
shown in the Chart below. The Hartz Reforms show that low paid
work is an essential part of the economy. What preceded the
Hartz Reforms shows what happens when social legislation
prices low paid work out of an economy, however well-
intentioned that legislation is, the result is higher levels of
unemployment.
The Labour Party has also proposed a link between the level of
unemployment benefits a recipient receives and the tax
contributions they have made. Although it is not clear if the total
144
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Myth and Reality: The Low-Wage Job
Machine, 9 August 2013.
http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/2013/08/myth-and-reality-the-
low-wage-job-machine.html
58
benefits bill would increase, or if the rises for some will be made
up by cuts in the benefits received by those without a
contributions record/less of a contributions record. The situation
in pre-Hartz Reforms Germany shows how this policy needs to
be carefully designed. Otherwise it can lead individuals to take
longer periods of unemployment to shorten their working life
using contribution-based welfare entitlement to supplement
their income until they reach pensionable age.
59
priorities and accepting the consequences of their policies. The
Trades Union Congress in their study German Lessons:
Developing industrial policy in the UK acknowledges that
“Germany’s trade surplus has been achieved at least in part on
the back of wage depression to subdue domestic demand,
which is not a model we advocate that the UK should follow.”145
145
German Lessons: developing industrial policy in the UK, Trades Union
Congress.
60
Bibliography
61
8. Directorate General of the Treasury (France), How have
the Hartz Reforms shaped the German labour market?
TRESOR-ECONOMICS, No 110, March 2013
http://www.tresor.economie.gouv.fr/File/386657
62
15. Institute for Public Policy Research, Resolution Founda-
tion, What Price A Living Wage? Understanding the im-
pact of a living wage on firm-level wage bills, Matthew
Pennycock, May 2012
http://www.resolutionfoundation.org/media/media/downlo
ads/Final_What_Price_a_Living_Wage_1.pdf
20. Kiel Institute for the World Economy, The stalling engine
in Wirtschaftswunder-Land: Germany's economic policy
challenges, Horst Siebert, 2002, ISBN 3894562358
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63
21. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper
NO.19136, The Global Decline of the Labor Share,
Loukas Karabarbounis, Brent Neiman, June 2013
http://www.nber.org/papers/w19136
64
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414559.de/diw_sp0532.pdf
65
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