Eureka Math™

Algebra II, Module 4

Teacher Edition

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 A STORY OF FUNCTIONS

Mathematics Curriculum
ALGEBRA II 4

Table of Contents1
Inferences and Conclusions from Data
.................................................................................................................................................. 3
Topic A: Probability (S-IC.A.2, S-CP.A.1, S-CP.A.2, S-CP.A.3, S-CP.A.4, S-CP.A.5, S-CP.B.6, S-CP.B.7) ................. 9
Lesson 1: Chance Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events .................................................................. 12
Lesson 2: Calculating Probabilities of Events Using Two-Way Tables .................................................... 29
Lessons 3–4: Calculating Conditional Probabilities and Evaluating Independence Using
Two-Way Tables................................................................................................................ 40
Lesson 5: Events and Venn Diagrams ..................................................................................................... 65
Lessons 6–7: Probability Rules................................................................................................................ 80
Topic B: Modeling Data Distributions (S-ID.A.4) ............................................................................................... 104
Lesson 8: Distributions—Center, Shape, and Spread ........................................................................... 106
Lesson 9: Using a Curve to Model a Data Distribution ......................................................................... 118
Lessons 10–11: Normal Distributions ................................................................................................... 133
Mid-Module Assessment and Rubric ................................................................................................................ 167
Topics A through B (assessment 1 day, return 1 day, remediation or further applications 3 days)
Topic C: Drawing Conclusions Using Data from a Sample (S-IC.A.1, S-IC.B.3, S-IC.B.4, S-IC.B.6) ..................... 182
Lesson 12: Types of Statistical Studies ................................................................................................. 184
Lesson 13: Using Sample Data to Estimate a Population Characteristic .............................................. 195
Lessons 14–15: Sampling Variability in the Sample Proportion ........................................................... 207
Lessons 16–17: Margin of Error When Estimating a Population Proportion ....................................... 229
Lessons 18–19: Sampling Variability in the Sample Mean ................................................................... 253
Lessons 20–21: Margin of Error When Estimating a Population Mean ............................................... 273
Lesson 22: Evaluating Reports Based on Data from a Sample ............................................................. 291
Topic D: Drawing Conclusions Using Data from an Experiment (S-IC.B.3, S-IC.B.5, S-IC.B.6) ........................... 299
Lesson 23: Experiments and the Role of Random Assignment ............................................................ 301
Lesson 24: Differences Due to Random Assignment Alone ................................................................. 311

1Each lesson is ONE day, and ONE day is considered a 45-minute period.

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 1

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Lessons 25–27: Ruling Out Chance ....................................................................................................... 320

Lessons 28–29: Drawing a Conclusion from an Experiment ................................................................ 359
Lesson 30: Evaluating Reports Based on Data from an Experiment .................................................... 370
End-of-Module Assessment and Rubric ............................................................................................................ 376
Topics A through D (assessment 1 day, return 1 day, remediation or further applications 3 days)

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 2

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Algebra II Module 4
Inferences and Conclusions from Data
VERVIEW
The concepts of probability and statistics covered in Algebra II build on students’ previous work in Grade 7
and Algebra I. Topics A and B address standards S-CP.A.1–5 and S-CP.B.6–7, which deal primarily with
probability. In Topic A, fundamental ideas from Grade 7 are revisited and extended to allow students to build
a more formal understanding of probability. More complex events are considered (unions, intersections,
complements) (S-CP.A.1). Students calculate probabilities based on two-way data tables and interpret them
in context (S-CP.A.4). They also see how to create “hypothetical 1000” two-way tables as a way of calculating
probabilities. Students are introduced to conditional probability (S-CP.A.3, S-CP.A.5), and the important
concept of independence is developed (S-CP.A.2, S-CP.A.5). The final lessons in this topic introduce
probability rules (S-CP.B.6, S-CP.B.7).
Topic B is a short topic consisting of four lessons. This topic introduces the idea of using a smooth curve to
model a data distribution, describes properties of the normal distribution, and asks students to distinguish
between data distributions for which it would be reasonable to use a normal distribution as a model and
those for which a normal distribution would not be a reasonable model. In the final two lessons of this topic,
students use tables and technology to find areas under a normal curve and interpret these areas in the
context of modeling a data distribution (S-ID.A.4).
Topics C and D develop students’ understanding of statistical inference and introduce different types of
statistical studies (observational studies, surveys, and experiments) (S-IC.B.3). In Topic C, students explore
using data from a random sample to estimate a population mean or a population proportion. Building on
what they learned about sampling variability in Grade 7, students use simulation to create an understanding
of margin of error. Students calculate the margin of error and interpret it in context (S-IC.B.4). Students also
evaluate reports from the media using sample data to estimate a population mean or proportion (S-IC.B.6).
Topic D focuses on drawing conclusions based on data from a statistical experiment. Given data from a
statistical experiment, students use simulation to create a randomization distribution and use it to determine
if there is a significant difference between two treatments (S-IC.B.5). Students also critique and evaluate
published reports based on statistical experiments that compare two treatments (S-IC.B.6).

Focus Standards
.
S-ID.A.4 Use the mean and standard deviation of a data set to fit it to a normal distribution and to
estimate population percentages. Recognize that there are data sets for which such a
procedure is not appropriate. Use calculators, spreadsheets, and tables to estimate areas
under the normal curve.

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 3

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sses underlying statistical experiments.

S-IC.A.1 Understand statistics as a process for making inferences about population parameters based
on a random sample from that population.
S-IC.A.2 Decide if a specified model is consistent with results from a given data-generating process,
e.g., using simulation. For example, a model says a spinning coin falls heads up with
probability 0.5. Would a result of 5 tails in a row cause you to question the model?

Make inferences and justify conclusions from sample

S-IC.B.3 Recognize the purposes of and differences among sample surveys, experiments, and
observational studies; explain how randomization relates to each.
S-IC.B.4 Use data from a sample survey to estimate a population mean or proportion; develop a
margin of error through the use of simulation models for random sampling.
S-IC.B.5 Use data from a randomized experiment to compare two treatments; use simulations to
decide if differences between parameters are significant.
S-IC.B.6 Evaluate reports based on data.

.
S-CP.A.1 Describe events as subsets of a sample space (the set of outcomes) using characteristics (or
categories) of the outcomes, or as unions, intersections, or complements of other events
(“or,” “and,” “not”).
S-CP.A.2 Understand that two events and are independent if the probability of and occurring
together is the product of their probabilities, and use this characterization to determine if
they are independent.
S-CP.A.3 Understand the conditional probability of given as ( and )/ ( ), and interpret
independence of and as saying that the conditional probability of given is the same
as the probability of , and the conditional probability of given is the same as the
probability of .
S-CP.A.4 Construct and interpret two-way frequency tables of data when two categories are
associated with each object being classified. Use the two-way table as a sample space to
decide if events are independent and to approximate conditional probabilities. For example,
collect data from a random sample of students in your school on their favorite subject
among math, science, and English. Estimate the probability that a randomly selected
student from your school will favor science given that the student is in tenth grade. Do the
same for other subjects and compare the results.
S-CP.A.5 Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday
language and everyday situations. For example, compare the chance of having lung cancer if
you are a smoker with the chance of being a smoker if you have lung cancer.

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 4

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probability model.
S-CP.B.6 Find the conditional probability of given as the fraction of ’s outcomes that also
belong to , and interpret the answer in terms of the model.
S-CP.B.7 Apply the Addition Rule, ( or ) = ( ) + ( ) ( and ), and interpret the
answer in terms of the model.

Foundational Standards
e random sampling to draw inferences about a population.
7.SP.A.1 Understand that statistics can be used to gain information about a population by examining
a sample of the population; generalizations about a population from a sample are valid only
if the sample is representative of that population. Understand that random sampling tends
to produce representative samples and support valid inferences.
7.SP.A.2 Use data from a random sample to draw inferences about a population with an unknown
characteristic of interest. Generate multiple samples (or simulated samples) of the same
size to gauge the variation in estimates or predictions. For example, estimate the mean
word length in a book by randomly sampling words from the book; predict the winner of a
school election based on randomly sampled survey data. Gauge how far off the estimate or
prediction might be.

7.SP.B.3 Informally assess the degree of visual overlap of two numerical data distributions with
similar variabilities, measuring the difference between the centers by expressing it as a
multiple of a measure of variability. For example, the mean height of players on the
basketball team is 10 cm greater than the mean height of players on the soccer team, about
twice the variability (mean absolute deviation) on either team; on a dot plot, the separation
between the two distributions of heights is noticeable.
7.SP.B.4 Use measures of center and measures of variability for numerical data from random
samples to draw informal comparative inferences about two populations. For example,
decide whether the words in a chapter of a seventh-grade science book are generally longer
than the words in a chapter of a fourth-grade science book.

7.SP.C.8 Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and
simulation.
a. Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound event is the
fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs.

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 5

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b. Represent sample spaces for compound events using methods such as organized lists,
tables and tree diagrams. For an event described in everyday language (e.g., “rolling
double sixes”), identify the outcomes in the sample space which compose the event.
c. Design and use a simulation to generate frequencies for compound events. For
example, use random digits as a simulation tool to approximate the answer to the
question: If 40% of donors have type A blood, what is the probability that it will take at
least 4 donors to find one with type A blood?

Summarize, represent, and interpret data on a single .

S-ID.A.2 Use statistics appropriate to the shape of the data distribution to compare center (median,
mean) and spread (interquartile range, standard deviation) of two or more different data
sets.
S-ID.A.3 Interpret differences in shape, center, and spread in the context of the data sets, accounting
for possible effects of extreme data points (outliers).

.
S-ID.B.5 Summarize categorical data for two categories in two-way frequency tables. Interpret
relative frequencies in the context of the data (including joint, marginal, and conditional
relative frequencies). Recognize possible associations and trends in the data.

Focus Standards for Mathematical Practice

MP.2 . Students use data from a sample to estimate a
population mean or proportion and generalize from a sample to the population. They
associate a margin of error with estimates based on a sample and interpret them in the
context of generalizing from a sample to the population. Students also make conjectures or
claims about independence and use arguments based on probabilities to support them.
MP.3 of others. Students test conjectures
about treatment differences in the context of a statistical experiment. Students critique and
evaluate reports based on data from random samples and reports based on data from
experiments. Students frequently develop conjectures and use statistical reasoning to
evaluate them.
MP.4 Model with mathematics. Students use smooth curves to model data distributions.
Students use the normal distribution as a model in order to answer questions about a data
distribution. Students use probability models to describe real-world contexts.
MP.5 . Students use technology to carry out simulations in
order to study sampling variability. Students also use technology to compute estimates of
population characteristics (such as the mean and standard deviation) and to calculate
margin of error. Students use simulation to investigate statistical significance in the context
of comparing treatments in a statistical experiment.

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 6

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New or
Complement of an E (The complement of an event, , denoted by , is the event that does
not occur.)
Conditional Probability (The probability of an event given that some other event occurs. The
conditional probability of given is denoted by ( | ).)
Experiment (An experiment is a study in which subjects are assigned to treatments for the purpose
of seeing what effect the treatments have on some response.)
able (A hypothetical 1000 table is a two-way table that is constructed using
given probability information. It represents a hypothetical population of 1000 individuals that is
consistent with the given probability distribution and also allows calculation of other probabilities of
interest.)
Independent E (Two events and are independent if ( | ) = ( ). This implies that
knowing that has occurred does not change the probability that has occurred.)
wo E (The intersection of two events, and , denoted by , is the event
that and both occur.)
Lurking Variable (A lurking variable is one that causes two variables to have a high relationship even
though there is no real direct relationship between the two variables.)
Margin of Error (The margin of error is the maximum likely error when data from a sample is used to
estimate a population characteristic, such as a population proportion or a population mean.)
Normal Distribution (A normal distribution is a distribution that is bell shaped and symmetric.)
(An observational study is one in which the values of one or more variables are
observed with no attempt to affect the outcomes.)
Random Assignment (Random assignment is the process of using a chance mechanism to assign
individuals to treatments in an experiment.)
Random Selection (Random selection is the process of selecting individuals for a sample using a
chance mechanism that ensures that every individual in the population has the same chance of being
selected.)
(A sample survey is an observational study in which people respond to one or more
questions.)
(A treatment is something administered in an experimental study.)
(The union of two events, and , denoted by , is the event that either
or or both occur.)

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 7

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2
Familiar
Association
Chance experiment
Conditional relative frequency
Distribution shape (skewed, symmetric)
Event
Mean
Sample space
Sampling variability
Standard deviation

Graphing calculator or graphing software

Random number tables
Random number software
Normal distribution
Two-way frequency tables
Spreadsheets

Assessment Summary
Assessmen Administered Format Standards Addressed
S-ID.A.4, S-IC.A.2,
S-CP.A.1, S-CP.A.2,
Mid-Module
After Topic B Constructed response with rubric. S-CP.A.3, S-CP.A.4,
Assessment Task
S-CP.A.5, S-CP.B.6,
S-CP.B.7

S-ID.A.4, S-IC.A.1,
End-of-Module S-IC.A.2, S-IC.B.3,
After Topic D Constructed response with rubric.
Assessment Task S-IC.B.4, S-IC.B.5,
S-IC.B.6

2
These are terms and symbols students have seen previously.

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 8

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Mathematics Curriculum
ALGEBRA II 4

Topic A
Probability
S-IC.A.2, S-CP.A.1, S-CP.A.2, S-CP.A.3, S-CP.A.4, S-CP.A.5, S-CP.B.6, S-CP.B.7

Focus Standards: S-IC.A.2 Decide if a specified model is consistent with results from a given data-generating
process, e.g., using simulation. For example, a model says a spinning coin falls heads up
with probability 0.5. Would a result of 5 tails in a row cause you to question the model?
S-CP.A.1 Describe events as subsets of a sample space (the set of outcomes) using characteristics
(or categories) of the outcomes, or as unions, intersections, or complements of other
events (“or,” “and,” “not”).
S-CP.A.2 Understand that two events and are independent if the probability of and
occurring together is the product of their probabilities, and use this characterization to
determine if they are independent.
S-CP.A.3 Understand the conditional probability of given as ( and )/ ( ), and interpret
independence of and as saying that the conditional probability of given is the
same as the probability of , and the conditional probability of given is the same as
the probability of .
S-CP.A.4 Construct and interpret two-way frequency tables of data when two categories are
associated with each object being classified. Use the two-way table as a sample space
to decide if events are independent and to approximate conditional probabilities. For
example, collect data from a random sample of students in your school on their favorite
subject among math, science, and English. Estimate the probability that a randomly
selected student from your school will favor science given that the student is in tenth
grade. Do the same for other subjects and compare the results.
S-CP.A.5 Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in
everyday language and everyday situations. For example, compare the chance of
having lung cancer if you are a smoker with the chance of being a smoker if you have
lung cancer.
S-CP.B.6 Find the conditional probability of given as the fraction of ’s outcomes that also
belong to , and interpret the answer in terms of the model.
S-CP.B.7 Apply the Addition Rule, ( or ) = ( ) + ( ) ( and ), and interpret the
answer in terms of the model.

Topic A: Probability 9

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Instructional Days: 7
Lesson 1: Chance Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events (E) 1
Lesson 2: Calculating Probabilities of Events Using Two-Way Tables (P)
Lessons 3-4: Calculating Conditional Probabilities and Evaluating Independence Using Two-Way Tables (P, P)
Lesson 5: Events and Venn Diagrams (P)
Lessons 6-7: Probability Rules (P, P)

Fundamental ideas from Grade 7 are revisited and extended to allow students to build a more formal
understanding of probability. Students expand their understanding of chance experiments, sample space,
and events to the more complex understanding of events defined as unions, intersections, and complements
(S-CP.A.1). Students develop this understanding as they consider events that can be described as unions and
intersections in the context of a game involving cards and spinners. One such game is introduced in Lesson 1,
and then students explore further variations of the game in the lesson’s Problem Set. Students also consider
whether observations from a chance experiment are consistent with a given probability model (S-IC.A.2).
Students calculate probabilities of unions and intersections using data in two-way data tables and interpret
them in context (S-CP.A.4). Students deepen their understanding by creating hypothetical 1000 two-way
tables (i.e., tables based on a hypothetical population of 1,000 observations) and then use these tables to
calculate probabilities. Students use given probability information to determine the marginal totals and
individual cell counts. This table then allows students to calculate conditional probabilities, as well as
probabilities of unions, intersections, and complements, without the need for formal probability rules.
Students are introduced to conditional probability (S-CP.A.3, S-CP.A.5), which is used to illustrate the
important concept of independence by describing two events, and , as independent if the conditional
probability of given is not equal to the unconditional probability of . In this case, knowing that event
has occurred does not change the assessment of the probability that event has also occurred (S-CP.A.2,
S-CP.A.5). Students use two-way tables to determine if two
events are independent by calculating and interpreting
conditional probabilities. In Lesson 3, students are
presented with athletic participation data from Rufus King
High School in two-way frequency tables, and conditional
probabilities are calculated using column or row
summaries. The conditional probabilities are then used to
investigate whether or not there is a connection between
two events.
Students are also introduced to Venn diagrams to
represent the sample space and various events. Students
see how the regions of a Venn diagram connect to the cells
of a two-way table. Venn diagrams also help students
understand probability formulas involving the formal
symbols of union, intersection, and complement.

1
Lesson Structure Key: P-Problem Set Lesson, M-Modeling Cycle Lesson, E-Exploration Lesson, S-Socratic Lesson

Topic A: Probability 10

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Additionally, a Venn diagram can show how subtracting the probability of an event from 1 enables students
to acquire the probability of the complement of the event and why the probability of the intersection of two
events is subtracted from the sum of event probabilities when calculating the probability of the union of two
events.
The final lessons in this topic introduce probability rules (the multiplication rule for independent events, the
addition rule for the union of two events, and the complement rule for the complement of an event)
(S-CP.B.6, S-CP.B.7). Students use the multiplication rule for independent events to calculate the probability
of the intersection of two events. Students interpret independence based on the conditional probability and
its connection to the multiplication rule.

Topic A: Probability 11

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Lesson 1: Chance Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events

Student Outcomes
Students determine the sample space for a chance experiment.
Given a description of a chance experiment and an event, students identify the subset of outcomes from the
sample space corresponding to the complement of an event.
Given a description of a chance experiment and two events, students identify the subset of outcomes from the
sample space corresponding to the union or intersection of two events.
Students calculate the probability of events defined in terms of unions, intersections, and complements for a
simple chance experiment with equally likely outcomes.

Materials
Each group needs the following:
Copy of rules of game
Fair coin
Spinner with three equal area sectors
Spinner with six equal area sectors
Card bag with six cards (four blue with letters A, B, C, and D and two red with letters E and F)
Scenario cards (several per person)
Scoring cards (several per person)

Lesson Notes
This lesson provides a review of probability topics first encountered in Grade 7. In Grade 7, students were introduced to
chance experiments, events, equally likely events, and sample spaces. This lesson reviews these topics to prepare
students for the more advanced probability topics developed in this grade level, which provide the foundation for
inferential thinking. This lesson asks students to think about events that are described with and, or, and not and to
identify associated outcomes from the sample space. The more formal language of intersection, union, and complement
is defined in Lessons 3 and 4. The structure of this lesson is exploratory, providing several opportunities to review
chance experiments, events, equally likely events, and sample spaces. The vocabulary addressed in this lesson should be
familiar to some students based on their previous work. For other students, this lesson may be their first exposure to
these probability topics, and an explanation of the terms is necessary.
Be prepared to carefully explain the rules and procedures of the game that is the basis of this lesson. Conduct a few
practice rounds with students before they complete the exercises. Consider using parts of this lesson as an opportunity
to informally assess student understanding of probability. Provide a handout of the rules for each student. (A template
is provided at the end of this teacher lesson.) This relatively simple game is designed to let students calculate and
interpret simple probabilities based on coins, spinners, and picking names from a bag. Teachers are encouraged to
either simplify or make the game more complex based on students’ experience with games. This lesson also provides an
opportunity to remind students that the origins of probability were to better understand games of chance.

Lesson 1: Chance Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events 12

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Before presenting this lesson, prepare copies of the two spinners (Spinners 1 and 2) and several card bags. A description
of the spinners and the card bags are provided for students. Preparing the spinners and the card bags before students
start the game provides more time to focus on the game and the outcomes. Spinner 1 can be constructed by tracing a
large circle on an 8. × sheet of paper. Draw three approximately equal area sectors from the center of the circle
(an estimate of the center is fine for this game). Students can use a paper clip positioned at the center of the circle by
the tip of a pencil or pen as the pointer. Encourage students to attempt a few spins of the paper clip before continuing
with the exercises. The card bag can be a bag or jar containing six equally sized small slips of paper with four slips
designated as blue and the other two slips designated as red. The letters A, B, C, and D are written on the blue slips (one
letter per card), and the letters E and F are written on the red slips. Make sure that students mix up the slips of paper
with each card selected and that they cannot see the cards as they make their selections.
Spinner 2 can also be constructed on an 8. × sheet of paper with approximately six equal sectors. Spinner 2 is
used in the Problem Set. Prepare a spinner template so that each student has a copy of it when completing the
problems for the Problem Set.

Classwork
Opening (5 minutes)
Spend five minutes discussing the following game with students. Read through the explanation as a class.

Alan is designing a probability game. He plans to present the game to people who will consider financing his idea. Here is
a description of the game:

The game includes the following materials:

A fair coin with a head and a tail

Spinner 1 with three equal area sectors identified as , , and
Spinner 2 with six equal area sectors identified as , , , , , and
A card bag containing six cards. Four cards are blue with the letter A written on one card, B on another
card, C on a third card, and D on the fourth card. Two cards are red with the letter E written on one card
and the letter F written on the other. (Although actually using colored paper is preferable, slips of paper
with the words blue or red written will also work.)
A set of scenario cards, each describing a chance experiment and a set of five possible events based on
the chance experiment

Spinner 1 Spinner 2

Lesson 1: Chance Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events 13

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Card Bag:

Blue Blue Blue Blue Red Red

A B C D E F

The game is played by two players (or two small groups of players) identified as Player 1 and Player 2.
Rules of the game:
The scenario cards are shuffled, and one is selected.
Each player reads the description of the chance experiment and the description of the five possible
outcomes.
Players independently assign the numbers – (no repeats) to the five events described on the scenario
card based on how likely they think the event is to occur, with being most likely and being least
likely.
Once players have made their assignments, the chance experiment described on the scenario card is
performed. Points are then awarded based on the outcome of the chance experiment. If the event
described on the scenario card has occurred, the player earns the number of points corresponding to the
number that player assigned to that event ( – points). If an event occurs that is not described on the
scenario card, then no points are awarded for that event.
If an outcome is described by two or more events on the scenario card, the player selects the higher
point value.
The chance experiment is repeated four more times with points being awarded each time the chance
experiment is performed.
The player with the largest number of points at the end of the game is the winner.

Alan developed two scenario cards for his demonstration to the finance people. A table in which the players can make
their assignments and keep track of their scores accompanies each scenario card. Consider the first scenario card Alan
developed.

Scenario Card 1
Game Tools: Spinner 1 (three equal sectors with the number in one sector, the number in the second
sector, and the number in the third sector)
Card bag (Blue-A, Blue-B, Blue-C, Blue-D, Red-E, Red-F)

Directions (chance experiment): Spin Spinner 1, and randomly select a card from the card bag (four blue cards and
two red cards). Record the number from your spin and the color of the card selected.

Five Events of Interest:

Outcome is an even
Outcome is an odd Outcome is an odd
Outcome is an odd number from Outcome is not a
number on Spinner number on Spinner
number on Spinner 1 or a red blue card from the
1 and a red card 1 and a blue card
Spinner 1. card from the card card bag.
from the card bag. from the card bag.
bag.

Lesson 1: Chance Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events 14

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Player:

Scoring Card for Scenario 1:

Outcome from Outcome from

Turn Points
Spinner 1 the Card Bag

Here is an example of Alan demonstrating the first scenario card. The chance experiment for Scenario Card 1 is “Spin
Spinner 1, and record the number. Randomly select a card from the card bag (four blue cards and two red cards). Record
the color of the card selected.”

Alan assigned the numbers – to the descriptions, as shown below. Once a number is assigned, it cannot be used again.

Five Events of Interest:

Outcome is an even
Outcome is an odd Outcome is an odd
Outcome is an odd number from Outcome is not a
number on Spinner 1 number on Spinner 1
number on Spinner 1 or a red blue card from the
and a red card from and a blue card from
Spinner 1. card from the card card bag.
the card bag. the card bag.
bag.

Alan is now ready to take his five turns. The results were recorded from the spinner and the card bag. Based on the
results, Alan earned the points indicated for each turn.

Player: Player 1

Scoring Card for Scenario 1:

Points Based on Alan’s

Outcome from Outcome from the
Turn Assignment of the Numbers to
Spinner 1 Card Bag
the Five Events
Blue
Red
Red
Blue
Blue

Alan earned a total of points. The game now turns to Player 2. Player 2 assigns the numbers – to the same
description of outcomes. Player 2 does not have to agree with the numbers Alan assigned. After five turns, the player
with the most number of points is the winner.

Exploratory Challenge/Exercises 1–13 (30 minutes)

Let students work with a partner (Player 1 and Player 2) or in two small groups of players. As an Exploratory lesson,
students should experiment with the game as they begin making sense of the rules and procedures. The exercises are
designed to help students understand the strategy of winning the game based on analyzing the probabilities of the
events.
Let’s look more closely at Scenario Card 1.

Lesson 1: Chance Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events 15

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Exploratory Challenge/Exercises 1–13

1. Would you change any of the assignments of – that Alan made? Explain your answer. Assign the numbers – to
the event descriptions based on what you think is the best strategy to win the game.

Outcome is an even
Outcome is an odd Outcome is an odd
Outcome is an odd number from Outcome is not a
number on Spinner number on Spinner
number on Spinner 1 or a red blue card from the
1 and a red card 1 and a blue card
Spinner 1. card from the card card bag.
from the card bag. from the card bag.
bag.

Answers will vary.

Encourage students to explore different strategies for assigning the numbers, and have them share their thinking with
the class. Some students may not have formed a strategy yet, and they may assign the numbers by simply guessing.
Other students may have a sense of the probabilities of the various outcomes and assign numbers that reflect that
thinking. The questions that follow help them organize their thinking to develop a strategy for playing the game.

2. Carry out a turn by observing an outcome from spinning Spinner 1 and picking a card. How many points did you
earn from this first turn?

Answers will vary.

Allow students to explain to others the points they earned and how they calculated the points. This is an opportunity to
review the meaning of the or and and language. The or (to be defined in several later lessons as a union) is indicating
that either one or both of the descriptions is necessary for this event. The event “odd number or a red card” means that
if the spinner outcome was a 1 or 3, this event has occurred regardless of the card selected. It also means that if one of
the red cards was selected, and the result from the spinner is a 2, this event has occurred. The event “odd number or a
red card” also occurs if the outcome is an odd number and a red card. An and event (for example, “odd number and a
red card”) means both that the number must be odd and that the card must be red.

3. Complete four more turns (for a total of five), and determine your final score.

Player: Your Turn

Scoring Card for Scenario 1:

Points Based on Your

Outcome from Outcome from the Card
Trial Assignment of Numbers to the
Spinner 1 Bag
Events

Answers will vary depending on the outcomes when the student plays the game.

Lesson 1: Chance Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events 16

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Use Exercise 3 to determine if students understand the directions of the game. Provide some time to discuss outcomes
and to help students explain how points were obtained either with individual students or in small groups as students
work through the questions.
Encourage students to explain their reasoning in how they assigned numbers to the events and what the number of
MP.2 points obtained from spinning the spinner and selecting a card indicate about their decisions. Students could use the
outcomes as information about which outcomes are more likely to occur.

4. If you changed the numbers assigned to the descriptions, was your score better than Alan’s score? Did you expect
your score to be better? Explain. If you did not change the numbers from those that Alan assigned, explain why you
did not change them.

Note: This question provides students an opportunity to begin explaining the strategy they are using in this game.
Anticipate that in most cases students are assigning the larger numbers (the or the ) to the outcomes they think
are most likely. At this point in the lesson, students have not been asked to calculate the actual probabilities of the
events of interest. However, some students may have already calculated or estimated the probabilities. Anticipate
that students change the assignment of numbers to try to improve their scores.

As students discuss strategies for assigning numbers based on which events are most likely to occur, they are also
MP.3
evaluating the thinking of others.

5. Spinning Spinner 1 and drawing a card from the card bag is a chance experiment. One
possible outcome of this experiment is ( , Blue-A). Recall that the sample space for a Scaffolding:
chance experiment is the set of all possible outcomes. What is the sample space for the For English language learners,
chance experiment of Scenario Card 1? the term space may need
The sample space consists of outcomes. clarification and rehearsal, as it
{( , Blue-A), ( , Blue-B), ( , Blue-C), ( , Blue-D), ( , Red-E), ( , Red-F), ( , Blue-A),
is a noun with several
( , Blue-B), ( , Blue-C), ( , Blue-D), ( , Red-E), ( , Red-F), ( , Blue-A), ( , Blue-B), meanings and also a verb.
( , Blue-C), ( , Blue-D), ( , Red-E), ( , Red-F)}

6. Are the outcomes in the sample space equally likely? Explain your answer.

Yes, each outcome is equally likely to occur because the spinner is equally likely to land in any of the three segments,
and each of the six cards is equally likely to be selected. The selection of a card and the result of spinning the spinner
do not depend on each other, so the outcomes in the sample space should be equally likely.

7. Recall that an event is a collection of outcomes from the sample space. One event of interest for someone with
Scenario Card 1 is “odd number on Spinner 1 and a red card.” What are the outcomes that make up this event? List
the outcomes of this event in the first row of Table 1 (see Exercise 9).

See the completed chart in Exercise 9.

8. What is the probability of getting an odd number on Spinner 1 and picking a red card from the card bag? Also enter
this probability in Table 1 (see Exercise 9).

See the completed table in Exercise 9. Direct students to write their probabilities as fractions or as decimals.
Fractions do not need to be reduced, as the unreduced fractions are meaningful based on the context.

Lesson 1: Chance Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events 17

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9. Complete Table 1 by listing the outcomes for the other events and their probabilities based on the chance
experiment for this scenario card.

The following table organizes the responses to Exercises 7–9:

Table 1

Event Outcomes Probability

Odd number on Spinner 1 Note: If students struggle with the
The probability is , which is
and a red card from the card “and” language, discuss the outcomes
bag with students. approximately . .

( , Red-E), ( , Red-F), ( , Red-E), Assign point to this event.

( , Red-F)

Odd number on Spinner 1 Note: Students may indicate that the

The probability is or , which is
probability of this outcome is the same
as the probability of just getting an odd approximately . .
number on the spinner without
considering the color of the card
Assign points to this event.
selected.

( , Blue-A), ( , Blue-B), ( , Blue-C),

( , Blue-D), ( , Red-E), ( , Red-F),
( , Blue-A), ( , Blue-B), ( , Blue-C),
( , Blue-D), ( , Red-E), ( , Red-F)

Odd number on Spinner 1 ( , Blue-A), ( , Blue-B), ( , Blue-C),

The probability is , which is
and a blue card from the card ( , Blue-D), ( , Blue-A), ( , Blue-B),
bag ( , Blue-C), ( , Blue-D) approximately . .

Assign points to this event.

Even number on Spinner 1 or Note: This event involves the “or.”

The probability is , which is
a red card from the card bag Make sure students identify all of the
outcomes that apply. This is an excellent approximately . .
event to discuss with students.
Assign points to this event.
( , Red-E), ( , Red-F), ( , Blue-A),
( , Blue-B), ( , Blue-C), ( , Blue-D),
( , Red-E), ( , Red-F), ( , Red-E),
( , Red-F)

Not picking a blue card from Note: Although formally defined in

The probability is , which is
the card bag Lesson 3, this is an example of the
complement of the event “picking a blue approximately . .
card.” An informal discussion of the
word “complement” may be considered;
Assign points to this event.
however, it is not necessary at this time.

( , Red-E), ( , Red-F), ( , Red-E),

( , Red-F), ( , Red-E), ( , Red-F)

10. Based on the above probabilities, how would you assign the numbers – to each of the game descriptions?
Explain.

If players assigned the points based on a assigned to the event most likely to occur, followed by , etc., then there
would be changes made to the assignment of points.

Lesson 1: Chance Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events 18

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11. If you changed any of the points assigned to the game descriptions, play the game again at least three times and
record your final scores for each game. Do you think you have the best possible assignment of numbers to the
events for this scenario card? If you did not change the game descriptions, also play the game so that you have at
least three final scores. Compare your scores with scores of other members of your class. Do you think you have
the best assignment of numbers to the events for this scenario card?

Answers will vary. A good way to discuss this question with students is to compare the score Alan received with his
assignment of points and the scores students received based on their assignments of points. Based on the
assignment of points described in Exercise 10, one possible student response is shown below.

This is another opportunity for students to demonstrate their reasoning using the results of various turns, linking the
MP.2
assignment of numbers to events and the scores obtained.

Points Based on the

Outcome from Outcome from the Card
Turn Assignment of Points in
Spinner 1 Bag
Exercise 10
Blue
Red
Red
Blue
Blue

The final score for the above five turns is points. This is a better score than Alan received from his assignment of
points.

12. Why might you not be able to answer the question of whether or not you have the best assignments of numbers to
the game descriptions with at least three final scores?

To decide the best assignment of points involves playing the game many times.

Note: Use this question to point out that probability is a long-run relative frequency. For this example, to get a good
sense of the probabilities, students would need to play the game many times.

13. Write your answers to the following questions independently, and then share your responses with a neighbor:
a. How did you make decisions about what to bet on?

Answers will vary. I calculated the probability of each outcome and bet in the order of probability,
(greatest) to (least). I used probability but changed a few bets based on the earlier outcomes.

b. How do the ideas of probability help you make decisions?

Answers will vary. Calculating probability gives you a good idea of the number of times an outcome will occur
and helps you make better decisions.

Closing (5 minutes)
How would you change the strategy of assigning the numbers 1–5 if the lowest score was the winner of the
game?
The event with the greatest probability will be assigned the number 1, the event with the second
greatest probability would be assigned the number 2, etc. The event with the least probability will be
assigned the number 5.

Lesson 1: Chance Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events 19

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Ask students to summarize the main ideas of the lesson in writing or with a neighbor. Use this opportunity to informally
assess their comprehension. The Lesson Summary below offers some important ideas that should be included.

Lesson Summary
SAMPLE SPACE: The sample space of a chance experiment is the collection of all possible outcomes for
the experiment.
EVENT: An event is a collection of outcomes of a chance experiment.
For a chance experiment in which outcomes of the sample space are equally likely, the probability of an
event is the number of outcomes in the event divided by the number of outcomes in the sample space.
Some events are described in terms of or, and, or not.

Exit Ticket (5 minutes)

Lesson 1: Chance Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events 20

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Name Date

Lesson 1: Chance Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events

Exit Ticket

1. For the chance experiment described in Scenario Card 1, why is the probability of the event “spinning an odd
number and randomly selecting a blue card” not the same as the probability of the event “spinning an even number
and randomly selecting a blue card”? Which event would have the greater probability of occurring, and why?

2. Why is the probability of the event “spinning an odd number from Spinner 1 and randomly selecting a blue card” not
equal to the probability of “spinning an odd number from Spinner 1 or randomly selecting a blue card”?

3. If one of the red cards is changed to a blue card, what is the probability of the event “spinning an odd number from
Spinner 1 and randomly selecting a red card from the card bag”?

Lesson 1: Chance Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events 21

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

1. For the chance experiment described in Scenario Card 1, why is the probability of the event “spinning an odd
number and randomly selecting a blue card” not the same as the probability of the event “spinning an even number
and randomly selecting a blue card”? Which event would have the greater probability of occurring, and why?

The first event includes the following outcomes from the sample space: ( , Blue-A), ( , Blue-B), ( , Blue-C),
( , Blue-D), ( , Blue-A), ( , Blue-B), ( , Blue-C), ( , Blue-D).

The second event includes the following outcomes: ( , Blue-A), ( , Blue-B), ( , Blue-C), ( , Blue-D).

Because the spinner has two sectors representing odd numbers and only one sector representing an even number,
the numbers of outcomes in the two events are different. The probability of the first event is compared to the

probability of for the second event.

2. Why is the probability of the event “spinning an odd number from Spinner 1 and randomly selecting a blue card” not
equal to the probability of “spinning an odd number from Spinner 1 or randomly selecting a blue card”?

The outcomes for the first event must include both the odd number and a blue card or ( , Blue-A), ( , Blue-B),
( , Blue-C), ( , Blue-D), ( , Blue-A), ( , Blue-B), ( , Blue-C), and ( , Blue-D). The probability of that event would be
, which is approximately . . The outcomes of the second event would include each of the above outcomes,
but it would also include the outcomes of odd numbers from the spinner with a red card and even numbers with a
blue card. The outcomes for this event include ( , Blue-A), ( , Blue-B), ( , Blue-C), ( , Blue-D), ( , Red-E), ( , Red-F),
( , Blue-A), ( , Blue-B), ( , Blue-C), ( , Blue-D), ( , Blue-A), ( , Blue-B), ( , Blue-C), ( , Blue-D), ( , Red-E), and
( , Red-F). The only outcomes not included would be red cards with an even number. The probability for this event
is , which is approximately . .

3. If one of the red cards is changed to a blue card, what is the probability of the event “spinning an odd number from
Spinner 1 and randomly selecting a red card from the card bag”?

Changing one red card to a blue card will result in five blue cards and one red card in the card bag. Each of the five
blue cards could be paired with each odd number that is possible from the spinner (the number or the number ).
There would be a total of ten outcomes for this event. The number of outcomes in the sample space, however,
would not change. As a result, the probability of this event is , which is approximately . .

Problem Set Sample Solutions

Consider a second scenario card that Alan created for his game:

Scenario Card 2

Tools: Spinner 1
Spinner 2: a spinner with six equal sectors (Place the number in a sector, the
number in a second sector, the number in a third sector, the number in a
fourth sector, the number in a fifth sector, and the number in the last sector.)

Directions (chance experiment): Spin Spinner 1, and spin Spinner 2. Record the number from Spinner 1,
and record the number from Spinner 2.

Lesson 1: Chance Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events 22

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Five Events of Interest:

Outcome is an odd Outcome is the sum Outcome is the sum

Outcome is an odd number on Spinner of from the Outcome is an even of from the
number on 1 and an even numbers received number on numbers received
Spinner 2. number on from Spinner 1 and Spinner 2. from Spinner 1 and
Spinner 2. Spinner 2. Spinner 2.

Player:

Scoring Card for Scenario 2:

Turn Outcome from Spinner 1 Outcome from Spinner 2 Points

1. Prepare Spinner 1 and Spinner 2 for the chance experiment described on this second scenario card. (Recall that
Spinner 2 has six equal sectors.)

Prepare Spinner 2 as described. You can use the same Spinner 1 used for Scenario Card 1.

2. What is the sample space for the chance experiment described on this scenario card?

There are outcomes on this scenario card. Students can list all of the outcomes or describe them. Here is the list
(the first number is the outcome from Spinner 1, and the second number is the outcome from Spinner 2);
( , ), ( , ), ( , ), ( , ), ( , ), ( , ), ( , ), ( , ), ( , ), ( , ), ( , ), ( , ), ( , ), ( , ), ( , ),
( , ), ( , ), ( , )

3. Based on the sample space, determine the outcomes and the probabilities for each of the events on this scenario
card. Complete the table below.

Event Outcomes Probability

Outcome is an odd number on ( , ), ( , ), ( , ), ( , ), ( , ),
The probability is , which is . .
Spinner 2. ( , ), ( , ), ( , ), ( , )
Outcome is an odd number on The probability is
Spinner 1 and an even number ( , ), ( , ), ( , ), ( , ), ( , ), ( , )
, which is approximately . .
on Spinner 2.
Outcome is the sum of from The probability is
the numbers received from ( , ), ( , ), ( , )
, which is approximately . .
Spinner 1 and Spinner 2.
Outcome is an even number on ( , ), ( , ), ( , ), ( , ),
The probability is , which is .
Spinner 2. ( , ), ( , ), ( , ), ( , ), ( , )
Outcome is the sum of from The probability is
the numbers received from ( , )
, which is approximately . .
Spinner 1 and Spinner 2.

Note that although each event is different, some events are subsets of another event. As a result, students want to
assign a larger number to the event with more outcomes. Expect that students obtain scores of or for each turn.
As an extension, students may be asked to revise the descriptions of the events on the strategy cards in order to
make the game more challenging.

Lesson 1: Chance Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events 23

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4. Assign the numbers – to the events described on the scenario card.

The following assignments would be based on the assigned to the event with the greatest probability (the most
likely outcome), to the event with the next largest, etc.:

Five Events of Interest: Scenario 2

Outcome is the sum Outcome is the sum

Outcome is an odd
Outcome is an odd of from the Outcome is an even of from the
number on Spinner 1
number on numbers received number on numbers received
and an even number
Spinner 2. from Spinner 1 and Spinner 2. from Spinner 1 and
on Spinner 2.
Spinner 2. Spinner 2.

5. Determine at least three final scores based on the numbers you assigned to the events.

Responses will vary. Provided are three final scores based on outcomes from carrying out the game.

Player: Scott

Trial Outcome from Spinner 1 Outcome from Spinner 2 Points (see Problem 4)

Final Score: points

Player: Scott

Trial Outcome from Spinner 1 Outcome from Spinner 2 Points (see Problem 4)

Final Score: points

Player: Scott

Trial Outcome from Spinner 1 Outcome from Spinner 2 Points (see Problem 4)

Final Score: points

Lesson 1: Chance Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events 24

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6. Alan also included a fair coin as one of the scenario tools. Develop a scenario card (Scenario Card 3) that uses the
coin and one of the spinners. Include a description of the chance experiment and descriptions of five events
relevant to the chance experiment.

Answers will vary. Encourage students to be creative with this part of their assignment. Anticipate language similar
to that used in the examples. A sample response card is included.

The following is an example of a completed Scenario Card 3:

Scenario Card 3

Tools: Fair coin (head or tail)

Spinner 1 (three equal sectors with the number in one sector, the number in the second
sector, and the number in the third sector)

Directions (chance experiment): Toss fair coin, and spin Spinner 1. Record the head or tail from your toss and the
number from your spin.

Five Events of Interest:

Outcome is an odd Outcome is a prime Outcome is a tail. Outcome is a head Outcome is a tail and
number on Spinner 1. number on Spinner 1. and is not an even a on Spinner 1.
number on Spinner 1.

7. Determine the sample space for your chance experiment. Then, complete the table below for the five events on
your scenario card. Assign the numbers – to the descriptions you created.

Evaluate this chart based on the sample space and the descriptions developed by students. To evaluate, encourage
several students to explain their game scenario cards to other students, or provide a sample of the scenario cards
developed for students to try. The sample response is based on the scenario card presented in Problem 6.

Event Outcomes Probability

Outcome is an odd number on ( , ), ( , ), ( , ), ( , )
The probability is , which is
Spinner 1.
approximately . .
Outcome is a prime number on ( , ), ( , ), ( , ), ( , )
The probability is , which is
Spinner 1.
approximately . .
Outcome is a tail. ( , ), ( , ), ( , )
The probability is , which is . .

Outcome is a head and is not an even ( , ), ( , )

The probability is , which is
number on Spinner 1.
approximately . .
Outcome is a tail and a on Spinner 1. ( , )
The probability is , which is
approximately . .

8. Determine a final score for your game based on five turns.

Turn Points

Answers vary based on the descriptions developed by students. Note: If time permits, encourage selected students
to explain their games to other members of the class.

Lesson 1: Chance Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events 25

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Rules of the game for Scenario Card 1 described in the lesson:

The scenario cards are shuffled, and one is selected.
Each player reads the description of the chance experiment and the description of the five events described on
the scenario card.
Players independently assign the numbers 1–5 (no repeats) to the five events described on the scenario card
based on how likely they think the event is to occur, with 5 being most likely and 1 being least likely.
Once players have made their assignments, the chance experiment described on the scenario card is
performed. Points are then awarded based on the outcome of the chance experiment. If the event described
on the scenario card has occurred, the player earns the number of points corresponding to the number that
player assigned to that event (1–5 points). If an event occurs that is not described on the scenario card, then
no points are awarded for that event.
If an outcome is described by two or more events on the scenario card, the player selects the higher point
value.
The chance experiment is repeated four more times with points being awarded each time the chance
experiment is performed.
The player with the largest number of points at the end of the game is the winner.

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Spinner 1

1 2

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Spinner 2

1 2

6 3

5 4

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Lesson 2: Calculating Probabilities of Events Using Two-

Way Tables

Student Outcomes
Students calculate probabilities given a two-way table of data.
Students construct a hypothetical 1000 two-way table given probability information.
Students interpret probabilities in context.

Lesson Notes
In this lesson, students construct and interpret data in two-way tables. Questions are designed to help students
understand what the tables are summarizing. Two-way frequency tables were introduced in Grade 8 (Module 6, Lesson
13) and revisited in Algebra I (Module 2, Lessons 9–11) as a way to organize and interpret bivariate categorical data. This
lesson reviews and extends those concepts associated with two-way tables. Students also construct and interpret a
hypothetical 1000 table. Research indicates that a hypothetical 1000 table makes understanding probabilities formed
from a two-way table easier for students to understand. In Exercises 9–14, students create a hypothetical 1000 table
(i.e., a two-way frequency table based on a population of 1,000 students) to answer probability questions. The
probabilities from this table are approximately equal to the probabilities from the actual frequencies, which students also
interpret in the next lesson. The probability questions build on students’ previous work with probabilities in Grade 7.
Lessons 2–4 work together to develop the standards for the cluster “Understand independence and conditional
probability and use them to interpret data (S-CP).” Lesson 2 requires students to calculate several probabilities that are
identified in Lesson 3 as conditional probabilities. However, for this lesson, students calculate the probabilities using the
table, the question posed, and the context of the data. Lessons 3 and 4 offer a more formal description of a conditional
probability and how it is used to determine if two events are independent.

Classwork
Example 1 (2 minutes): Building a New High School
Students encounter references to two-way tables often in this module. It may be Scaffolding:
important to discuss the word table with students, especially for students learning the
For English language learners,
language. Highlight that the word table is used in these lessons to describe a tool for
provide visuals of the two
organizing data. Data organized in rows and columns are referenced as two-way tables or
different meanings for table,
two-way frequency tables. and practice saying the word
A formal definition of tables is difficult for all students. Carefully point out the tables chorally.
organized in these lessons, and point out the cells by describing what they represent.

Lesson 2: Calculating Probabilities of Events Using Two-Way Tables 29

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Example 1: Building a New High School

Scaffolding:
The school board of Waldo, a rural town in the Midwest, is considering building a new high school
primarily funded by local taxes. They decided to interview eligible voters to determine if the Consider using the following
school board should build a new high school facility to replace the current high school building. example to help students
There is only one high school in the town. Every registered voter in Waldo was interviewed. In understand how to build and
addition to asking about support for a new high school, data on gender and age group were also
interpret a two-way table. If
recorded. The data from these interviews are summarized below.
needed, Grade 8, Module 6,
Should Our Town Build a New High School? Lesson 13 can be used for
Yes No No Answer remediation.
Age (in years) Male Female Male Female Male Female
18–25 In a class of 20 students, 5
26–40 boys and 7 girls like chocolate
41–65 ice cream. Six boys like vanilla
66 and Older
ice cream.
What are the variables?
Exercises 1–8: Building a New High School (15–20 minutes) How could we organize
the variables in the
The following exercises ask students to interpret the data summarized in the table. The
following table?
MP.2 exercises allow students to reason abstractly by making summaries based on data. Discuss
how the data summaries are being used to answer each question. Although the questions Chocolate Vanilla
ask students to predict, the word probability is not always used in the questions. This is Boys 5 6
intentional, as it helps students to revisit their previous work with probability. While Girls 7
working with students, emphasize the goal of predicting outcomes based on the data. What does the missing cell
Allow students to work in small groups as they answer the following questions. Select represent? How can you
questions to discuss as a whole group based on student work. Allow students to use a determine the missing
calculator. For these questions, a scientific calculator is sufficient. value?

Exercises 1–8: Building a New High School

1. Based on this survey, do you think the school board should recommend building a new high school? Explain your
answer.

out of the eligible voters (approximately %) indicated “yes.” As a result, I think the voters will
recommend building a new high school.

2. An eligible voter is picked at random. If this person is 21 years old, do you think he would indicate that the town
should build a high school? Why or why not?

Most of the eligible voters ages 18–25 indicated “yes.” of the eligible voters in this age group indicated “yes.”
I would predict a 21-year-old in this age group to have answered “yes.”

3. An eligible voter is picked at random. If this person is 55 years old, do you think she would indicate that the town
should build a high school? Why or why not?

Most of the eligible voters ages 41–65 indicated “no” to the question about building a high school. I would predict
that a person in this age group would indicate that the town should not build a high school.

Lesson 2: Calculating Probabilities of Events Using Two-Way Tables 30

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4. The school board wondered if the probability of recommending a new high school was different for different age
categories. Why do you think the survey classified voters using the age categories 18–25 years old, 26–40 years old,
41–65 years old, and 66 years old and older?

The age groups used in the table represent people with different interests or opinions regarding the building of a
new high school. For example, people ages 26–40 are more likely to have children in school than people in the other
age groups. The probability that a person in each of these age categories would recommend building a new high
school might vary.

5. It might be helpful to organize the data in a two-way frequency table. Use the given data to complete the following
two-way frequency table. Note that the age categories are represented as rows, and the possible responses are
represented as columns.

Yes No No Answer Total

18–25 Years Old
26–40 Years Old
41–65 Years Old
66 Years Old and Older
Total

Exercise 6 challenges students to think about a “headline summary” of data (something they may encounter in a
newspaper, blog, or news report). Discuss how these types of short summaries of data need to be examined by readers.
The exercise provides an opportunity for students to form their own conclusions from the data and to reconcile their
MP.3 conclusions with summaries expressed in the form of headlines. In this way, students are also critiquing the reasoning of
others.

6. A local news service plans to write an article summarizing the survey results. Three possible headlines for this
article are provided below. Is each headline accurate or inaccurate? Support your answer using probabilities
calculated using the table above.

Headline 1: Waldo Voters Likely to Support Building a New High School

Yes, this is accurate. We see that out of , which is approximately . %, support building a new school.
The probability that an eligible voter would vote “yes” is greater than . , so you would think it is likely that voters
will support building a new high school.

Headline 2: Older Voters Less Likely to Support Building a New High School

Yes, this headline is accurate. If you define older voters as or older, then out of voters or older,
which is approximately . %, indicated they would not support building a new high school.

Headline 3: Younger Voters Not Interested in Building a New High School

This headline is not accurate. We see that out of eligible voters, which is approximately . % representing
the youngest eligible voters, indicated “yes” to building a new high school.

Exercise 7 is challenging. Students are expected to use both the probability of voting “yes” and the new information
about the number of eligible voters expected to vote to answer this question. It may be necessary to help some
students develop the final answer by working through a specific age group before they combine all age groups. Consider
tackling this question as a whole group. This question also presents another opportunity to discuss the role of
probability. Students previously indicated that most voters would vote “yes” to building a new high school. This
question raises the possibility that voters vote “no” by adding information about past voter turnout.

Lesson 2: Calculating Probabilities of Events Using Two-Way Tables 31

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7. The school board decided to put the decision on whether or not to build the high school up for a referendum in the
next election. At the last referendum regarding this issue, only of the eligible voters ages 18–25 voted, of
the eligible voters ages 26–40 voted, of the eligible voters ages 41–65 voted, and of the eligible voters ages
66 and older voted. If the voters in the next election turn out in similar numbers, do you think this referendum will
pass? Justify your answer.

Use the probabilities that a voter from an age group would vote “yes.” Multiply the probabilities that a person
would vote “yes” by the number of people estimated to vote in each age category.
( . )+ ( . )+ ( . )+ ( . )

out of the estimated voters will vote “yes.” Since this is less than half, we would predict that the vote will
indicate the high school should not be built.

8. Is it possible that your prediction of the election outcome might be incorrect? Explain.

Yes. The above is only a prediction. The actual results could be different. It depends on the actual voter turnout and
whether people actually vote as they indicated in the survey.

Example 2 (2 minutes): Smoking and Asthma

Read through the example as a class.

Example 2: Smoking and Asthma

Health officials in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, were concerned about teenagers with asthma. People with asthma often have
difficulty with normal breathing. In a local research study, researchers collected data on the incidence of asthma among
students enrolled in a Milwaukee public high school.

Students in the high school completed a survey that was used to begin this research. Based on this survey, the probability
of a randomly selected student at this high school having asthma was found to be . . Students were also asked if
they had at least one family member living in their house who smoked. The probability of a randomly selected student
having at least one member in his (or her) household who smoked was reported to be . .

Exercises 9–14 (10–15 minutes)

Make sure students understand how the information is organized in the given table. If Scaffolding:
necessary, point to a cell in the table, and ask students to describe what this cell Consider challenging students
represents in the context of the data. working above grade level to
This scenario is revisited in Lesson 4, where students explore the relationship between build the hypothetical table
independently or with a
having asthma and having at least one family member who smokes.
neighbor.
Allow students to continue to work in small groups as they answer the questions that
follow.

Lesson 2: Calculating Probabilities of Events Using Two-Way Tables 32

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Exercises 9–14

It would be easy to calculate probabilities if the data for the students had been organized into a two-way table like the
one used in Exercise 5. But there is no table here, only probability information. One way around this is to think about
what the table might have been if there had been , students at the school when the survey was given. This table is
called a hypothetical 1000 two-way table.

What if the population of students at this high school was , ? The population was probably not exactly ,
students, but using an estimate of , students provides an easier way to understand the given probabilities.
Connecting these estimates to the actual population is completed in a later exercise. Place the value of , in the cell
representing the total population. Based on a hypothetical 1000 population, consider the following table:

No Household At Least One Household

Total
Member Smokes Member Smokes
Student Has Asthma Cell 1 Cell 2 Cell 3
Student Does Not Have
Cell 4 Cell 5 Cell 6
Asthma
Total Cell 7 Cell 8 ,

9. The probability that a randomly selected student at this high school has asthma is . . This probability can be
used to calculate the value of one of the cells in the table above. Which cell is connected to this probability? Use
this probability to calculate the value of that cell.

Cell 3

The value for this cell would be students.

10. The probability that a randomly selected student has at least household member who smokes is . . Which
cell is connected to this probability? Use this probability to calculate the value of that cell.

Cell 8

The value for this cell would be students.

11. In addition to the previously given probabilities, the probability that a randomly selected student has at least one
household member who smokes and has asthma is . . Which cell is connected to this probability? Use this
probability to calculate the value of that cell.

Cell 2

The value for this cell would be students.

12. Complete the two-way frequency table by calculating the values of the other cells in the table.

At Least One
No Household
Household Member Total
Member Smokes
Smokes
Student Has Asthma
Student Does Not Have
Asthma
Total ,

Lesson 2: Calculating Probabilities of Events Using Two-Way Tables 33

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13. Based on your completed two-way table, estimate the following probabilities as a fraction and also as a decimal
(rounded to three decimal places):
a. A randomly selected student has asthma. What is the probability this student has at least household
member who smokes?

The probability is , which approximately . .

b. A randomly selected student does not have asthma. What is the probability this student has at least one
household member who smokes?

The probability is , which approximately . .

c. A randomly selected student has at least one household member who smokes. What is the probability this
student has asthma?

The probability is , which approximately . .

14. Do you think that whether or not a student has asthma is related to whether or not this student has at least one
family member who smokes? Explain your answer.

Yes, the probability a student with asthma has a household member who smokes is noticeably greater than the
probability a student who does not have asthma has a household member who smokes.

Closing (5 minutes)
What was the role of probability in our two examples?
To use data to predict outcomes of events, such as selecting a voter who will vote “yes” or selecting a
student who has asthma and at least one household member who smokes
As you used probabilities to make predictions, did you learn anything about the context of the data?
Answers will vary. Anticipate that students indicate that younger voters were less likely to vote or that
older voters in Waldo were less likely to support the new high school or that students with asthma were
more likely to have a household family member who smokes. Emphasize that probabilities must be
interpreted in context.
Ask students to summarize the main ideas of the lesson in writing or with a neighbor. Use this as an opportunity to
informally assess comprehension of the lesson. The Lesson Summary below offers some important ideas that should be
included.

Lesson Summary
Data organized in a two-way frequency table can be used to calculate probabilities.

In certain problems, probabilities that are known can be used to create a hypothetical 1000 two-way table. The
hypothetical population of , can then be used to calculate probabilities.

Probabilities are always interpreted in context.

Exit Ticket (5 minutes)

Lesson 2: Calculating Probabilities of Events Using Two-Way Tables 34

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Name Date

Lesson 2: Calculating Probabilities of Events Using Two-Way

Tables

Exit Ticket

Did male and female voters respond similarly to the survey question about building a new high school? Recall the
original summary of the data.

Should Our Town Build a New High School?

Yes No No Answer
Age (in years) Male Female Male Female Male Female
18–25 29 32 8 6 0 0
26–40 53 60 40 44 2 4
41–65 30 36 44 35 2 2
66 and Older 7 26 24 29 2 0

1. Complete the following two-way frequency table:

No
Yes No Total
Answer
Male 119 6

Female

Total 230 12 515

2. Use the above two-way frequency table to answer the following questions:
a. If a randomly selected eligible voter is female, what is the probability she will vote to build a new high school?

b. If a randomly selected eligible voter is male, what is the probability he will vote to build a new high school?

Lesson 2: Calculating Probabilities of Events Using Two-Way Tables 35

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3. An automobile company has two factories assembling its luxury cars. The company is interested in whether
consumers rate cars produced at one factory more highly than cars produced at the other factory. Factory A
assembles 60% of the cars. A recent survey indicated that 70% of the cars made by this company (both factories
combined) were highly rated. This same survey indicated that 10% of all cars made by this company were both
made at Factory B and were not highly rated.
a. Create a hypothetical 1000 two-way table based on the results of this survey by filling in the table below.

Car Was Highly Rated Car Was Not Highly

Total
by Consumers Rated by Consumers
Factory A

Factory B

Total

b. A randomly selected car was assembled in Factory B. What is the probability this car is highly rated?

Lesson 2: Calculating Probabilities of Events Using Two-Way Tables 36

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

Did male and female voters respond similarly to the survey question about building a new high school? Recall the original
summary of the data.

Should Our Town Build a New High School?

Yes No No Answer
Age (in years) Male Female Male Female Male Female
18–25
26–40
41–65
66 and Older

1. Complete the following two-way frequency table:

Yes No No Answer Total

Male
Female
Total

2. Use the above two-way frequency table to answer the following questions:
a. If a randomly selected eligible voter is female, what is the probability she will vote to build a new high
school?

b. If a randomly selected eligible voter is male, what is the probability he will vote to build a new high school?

3. An automobile company has two factories assembling its luxury cars. The company is interested in whether
consumers rate cars produced at one factory more highly than cars produced at the other factory. Factory A
assembles % of the cars. A recent survey indicated that % of the cars made by this company (both factories
combined) were highly rated. This same survey indicated that % of all cars made by this company were both
made at Factory B and were not highly rated.
a. Create a hypothetical 1000 two-way table based on the results of this survey by filling in the table below.

Car Was Highly Rated Car Was Not Highly

Total
by Consumers Rated by Consumers
Factory A
Factory B
Total ,

b. A randomly selected car was assembled in Factory B. What is the probability this car is highly rated?

The probability a car from Factory B is highly rated is , which is . .

Lesson 2: Calculating Probabilities of Events Using Two-Way Tables 37

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Problem Set Sample Solutions

1. The Waldo School Board asked eligible voters to evaluate the town’s library service. Data are summarized in the
following table:
How Would You Rate Our Town’s Library Services?
Good Average Poor Do Not Use Library
Age (in years) Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
–
–
–
and Older
a. What is the probability that a randomly selected person who completed the survey rated the library as good?

b. Imagine talking to a randomly selected male voter who had completed the survey. How do you think this
person rated the library services? Explain your answer.

Answers will vary. A general look at the table indicates that most male voters rated the library as good. As a
result, I would predict that this person would rate the library as good.

c. Use the given data to construct a two-way table that summarizes the responses on gender and rating of the
library services. Use the following template as your guide:

Good Average Poor Do Not Use Total

Male
Female
Total

d. Based on your table, answer the following:

i. A randomly selected person who completed the survey is male. What is the probability he rates the
library services as good?

ii. A randomly selected person who completed the survey is female. What is the probability she rates the
library services as good?

e. Based on your table, answer the following:

i. A randomly selected person who completed the survey rated the library services as good. What is the
probability this person is male?

. 5

ii. A randomly selected person who completed the survey rated the library services as good. What is the
probability this person is female?

Lesson 2: Calculating Probabilities of Events Using Two-Way Tables 38

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f. Do you think there is a difference in how male and female voters rated library services? Explain your answer.

Answers will vary. Yes, I think there is a difference. For example, . % of the male voters rated the library
services as good, but only . % of the female voters rated the services this way. There are also differences
between the ratings from male and female voters for the other categories.

2. Obedience School for Dogs is a small franchise that offers obedience classes for dogs. Some people think that larger
dogs are easier to train and, therefore, should not be charged as much for the classes. To investigate this claim,
dogs enrolled in the classes were classified as large ( pounds or more) or small (under pounds). The dogs were
also classified by whether or not they passed the obedience class offered by the franchise. % of the dogs
involved in the classes were large. % of the dogs passed the class. Records indicate that % of the dogs in the
classes were small and passed the course.
a. Complete the following hypothetical 1000 two-way table:

Passed the Course Did Not Pass the Course Total

Large Dogs
Small Dogs
Total ,

b. Estimate the probability that a dog selected at random from those enrolled in the classes passed the course.

= . , meaning % passed the course.

c. A dog was randomly selected from the dogs that completed the class. If the selected dog was a large dog,
what is the probability this dog passed the course?

. , meaning that approximately . % of large dogs passed the course.

d. A dog was randomly selected from the dogs that completed the class. If the selected dog is a small dog, what
is the probability this dog passed the course?

. , meaning that approximately . % of small dogs passed the course.

e. Do you think dog size and whether or not a dog passes the course are related?

Answers will vary. Yes, there is a noticeably greater probability that a dog passed the obedience class if a dog
is small than if the dog is large.

f. Do you think large dogs should get a discount? Explain your answer.

Answers will vary. No, large dogs should not get a discount. Large dogs are not as likely to have passed the
obedience class as small dogs.

Lesson 2: Calculating Probabilities of Events Using Two-Way Tables 39

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Lesson 3: Calculating Conditional Probabilities and

Evaluating Independence Using Two-Way Tables

Student Outcomes
Students construct a hypothetical 1000 two-way table from given probability information and use the table to
calculate the probabilities of events.
Students calculate conditional probabilities given a two-way data table or using a hypothetical 1000 two-way
table.
Students interpret probabilities, including conditional probabilities, in context.

Lesson Notes
This lesson is a continuation of the work started in Lesson 2. In this lesson, students learn a more formal definition of
conditional probability and are asked to interpret conditional probabilities. Data are presented in two-way frequency
tables, and conditional probabilities are calculated using column or row summaries. The work in this lesson leads up to
the definition of independent events (Lesson 4).

Classwork
Example 1 (2–3 minutes)
The initial activity asks students to investigate a real-world context using probability. In this hypothetical example,
students determine if female students are more likely to be involved in an athletic program as compared to male
students. While questions are provided, consider using this opening problem without scaffolding to allow students to
apply their knowledge from the first two lessons.

Example 1
Scaffolding:
Students at Rufus King High School were discussing some of the challenges of finding space for
athletic teams to practice after school. Part of the problem, according to Kristin, is that female Discuss types of sports offered
students are more likely to be involved in an after-school athletics program than male students. by the school and where the
However, the athletic director assigns the available facilities as if male students are more likely to teams practice. Take a poll in
be involved. Before suggesting changes to the assignments, the students decided to investigate.
the class to find out the
Suppose the following information is known about Rufus King High School: % of students are number of male and female
involved in one or more of the after-school athletics programs offered at the school. It is also students who participate in
known that % of the school’s students are female. The students decide to construct a sports, what type, and when
hypothetical 1000 two-way table, like Table 1, to organize the data.
and where they practice.
Calculate the class statistics
before doing this example.

Lesson 3: Calculating Conditional Probabilities and Evaluating Independence 40

Using Two-Way Tables

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Table 1: Participation in After-School Athletics Programs (Yes or No) by Gender

Yes—Participate in After-School No—Do Not Participate in

Total
Athletics Programs After-School Athletics Programs
Female Cell 1 Cell 2 Cell 3
Male Cell 4 Cell 5 Cell 6
Total Cell 7 Cell 8 Cell 9

Exercises 1–6 (10–15 minutes): Organizing the Data

Let students work with a partner and then confirm answers as a class. Exercise 3 requires students to express their
MP.2 thinking, reasoning from the table abstractly and quantitatively. As students calculate the probabilities, they need to
interpret them in context.

Exercises 1–6: Organizing the Data

1. What cell in Table 1 represents a hypothetical group of , students at Rufus King High School?

Cell 9

2. What cells in Table 1 can be filled based on the information given about the student population? Place these values
in the appropriate cells of the table based on this information.

Cells 3 and 7 can be completed from the given information. See the completed table below.

3. Based only on the cells you completed in Exercise 2, which of the following probabilities can be calculated, and
which cannot be calculated? Calculate the probability if it can be calculated. If it cannot be calculated, indicate why.
a. The probability that a randomly selected student is female

Yes, this can be calculated. The probability is . .

b. The probability that a randomly selected student participates in an after-school athletics program

Yes, this can be calculated. The probability is . .

c. The probability that a randomly selected student who does not participate in an after-school athletics
program is male

No, this probability cannot be calculated. We need to know the value of cell 5 to calculate this probability.

d. The probability that a randomly selected male student participates in an after-school athletics program

No, this probability cannot be calculated. We need to know the value of cell 4 to calculate this probability.

4. The athletic director indicated that . % of the students at Rufus King are female and participate in after-school
athletics programs. Based on this information, complete Table 1.

Yes—Participate in After-School No—Do Not Participate in

Total
Athletic Program After-School Athletic Program
Female
Male
Total ,

Lesson 3: Calculating Conditional Probabilities and Evaluating Independence 41

Using Two-Way Tables

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5. Consider the cells 1, 2, 4, and 5 of Table 1. Identify which of these cells represent students who are female or who
participate in after-school athletics programs.

Cells 1, 2, and 4

6. What cells of the two-way table represent students who are male and do not participate in after-school athletics
programs?

Cell 5

Example 2 (2–3 minutes)

The following definitions were first introduced in Grade 7. It is important, however, that students revisit the definitions
of complement, union, and intersection. The definitions in this lesson are connected to the context of the data and do
not focus on a symbolic representation of these terms. The use of Venn diagrams and sets to represent these events is
developed in Lessons 7 and 8.

Example 2

The completed hypothetical 1000 table organizes information in a way that makes it possible to answer various
questions. For example, you can investigate whether female students are more likely to be involved in the after-school
athletic programs.

Consider the following events:

Let represent the event “a randomly selected student is female.”

Let “not ” represent “the complement of .” The complement of represents the event “a randomly
selected student is not female,” which is equivalent to the event “a randomly selected student is male.”
Let represent the event “a randomly selected student participates in an after-school athletics program.”
Let “not ” represent “the complement of .” The complement of represents the event “a randomly
selected student does not participate in an after-school athletics program.”
Let “ or ” (described as union ) represent the event “a randomly selected student is female or
participates in an after-school athletics program.”
Let “ and ” (described as intersect ) represent the event “a randomly selected student is female and
participates in an after-school athletics program.”

Exercises 7–9 (8–10 minutes)

Let students continue to work with their partners and confirm answers as a class.

Exercises 7–9

7. Based on the descriptions above, describe the following events in words:

a. Not or not

Male students or students not participating in an after-school athletics program

b. and not

Female students not participating in an after-school athletics program

Lesson 3: Calculating Conditional Probabilities and Evaluating Independence 42

Using Two-Way Tables

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8. Based on the above descriptions and Table 1, determine the probability of each of the following events:
a.

= .

b.

= .

c. Not

= .

d. Not

= .

e. or
( + + )
= = .

f. and

= .

9. Determine the following values:

a. The probability of plus the probability of not

. + . = .
The sum is .

b. The probability of plus the probability of not

. + . = .
The sum is .

c. What do you notice about the results of parts (a) and (b)? Explain.

Both probabilities total . This makes sense since both parts are asking for the probability of and not or
and not . The probabilities of an event and its complement always sum to .

Example 3 (2 minutes): Conditional Probability

Read through the example as a class. Help students identify how the conditional probabilities are not based on the
whole population but rather on a specific subgroup within the whole population that is represented by a row total or a
column total. The visual of pulling apart the two-way table by rows or columns is intended to help in developing this
idea with students.

Lesson 3: Calculating Conditional Probabilities and Evaluating Independence 43

Using Two-Way Tables

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Example 3: Conditional Probability

Another type of probability is called a conditional probability. Pulling apart the two-way table helps to define a
conditional probability.

Yes—Participate in After-School No—Do Not Participate in

Total
Athletics Program After-School Athletics Program
Female Cell 1 Cell 2 Cell 3

Suppose that a randomly selected student is female. What is the probability that the selected student participates in an
after-school athletics program? This probability is an example of what is called a conditional probability. This probability
is calculated as the number of students who are female and participate in an after-school athletics program
(or the students in cell 1) divided by the total number of female students (or the students in cell 3).

Exercises 10–15 (8–10 minutes)

The following exercises are designed to have students calculate and interpret conditional probabilities based on data in
two-way tables. The conditional probabilities are based on focusing on either a row or a column in the table. Let
students work with a partner and confirm answers as a class. Students are calculating probabilities and connecting the
probability to the context. In these questions, students must make the connection to a subgroup within the population
MP.2
identified by the desired conditional probability. Both the calculation of the conditional probability and its meaning in
context are developed with these questions.

Exercises 10–15

10. The following are also examples of conditional probabilities. Answer each question.
a. What is the probability that if a randomly selected student is female, she participates in the after-school
athletic program?

The probability that if a randomly selected student is female then she participates in the after-school athletic
program is the value in Cell 1 divided by the value in Cell 3.

= .

b. What is the probability that if a randomly selected student is female, she does not participate in after-school
athletics?

The probability that if a randomly selected student is female then she does not participate in the after-school
athletic program is the value in Cell 2 divided by the value in Cell 3.

= .

11. Describe two conditional probabilities that can be determined from the following row in Table 1:

Yes—Participate in After-School No—Do Not Participate in

Total
Athletics Program After-School Athletics Program
Male Cell 4 Cell 5 Cell 6

The probability that if a randomly selected student is male, he participates in an after-school athletics program

The probability that if a randomly selected student is male, he does not participate in an after-school athletics
program

Lesson 3: Calculating Conditional Probabilities and Evaluating Independence 44

Using Two-Way Tables

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12. Describe two conditional probabilities that can be determined from the following column in Table 1:

Yes—Participate in After-School
Athletics Program
Female Cell 1
Male Cell 4
Total Cell 7

The probability that if a randomly selected student participates in an after-school athletics program, the student is
female

The probability that if a randomly selected student participates in an after-school athletics program, the student is
male

13. Determine the following conditional probabilities:

a. A randomly selected student is female. What is the probability she participates in an after-school athletics
program? Explain how you determined your answer.

= .

Since it is known that the selected student is female, I looked at the row for female students and used that
information.

b. A randomly selected student is male. What is the probability he participates in an after-school athletics
program?

= .

c. A student is selected at random. What is the probability this student participates in an after-school athletics
program?

= .

14. Based on the answers to Exercise 13, do you think that female students are more likely to be involved in after-school
athletics programs? Explain your answer.

No, the conditional probabilities indicate male and female students are equally likely to be involved in an after-
school athletics program.

15. What might explain the concern female students expressed in the beginning of this lesson about the problem of
assigning practice space?

It is interesting that at this school, the probability that a randomly selected student is female is . . There are
more female students than male students at this school. As a result, if facilities are assigned equally (given that both
female and male students were found to be equally likely to be involved), the number of female students involved in
after-school athletics programs is greater than the number of male students and might explain the concern
regarding facilities.

Lesson 3: Calculating Conditional Probabilities and Evaluating Independence 45

Using Two-Way Tables

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Closing (5 minutes)
What did the probabilities tell us about the students at Rufus King High School?
Answers will vary. Anticipate that students might mention that there are more female than male
students or that male and female students are equally likely to be involved in after-school athletics
programs (based on the conditional probabilities). Use this question to help students understand the
difference between probabilities based on the whole population and probabilities based on a row or
column of the table (conditional probabilities).
Ask students to summarize the main ideas of the lesson in writing or with a neighbor. Use this opportunity to informally
assess student comprehension of the lesson. The Lesson Summary below offers some important ideas that should be
included.

Lesson Summary
Data organized in a two-way frequency table can be used to calculate probabilities. Two-way frequency tables can
also be used to calculate conditional probabilities.

In certain problems, probabilities that are known can be used to create a hypothetical 1000 two-way table. This
hypothetical population of , can be used to calculate conditional probabilities.

Probabilities are always interpreted by the context of the data.

Exit Ticket (5 minutes)

Lesson 3: Calculating Conditional Probabilities and Evaluating Independence 46

Using Two-Way Tables

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Name Date

Lesson 3: Calculating Conditional Probabilities and Evaluating

Independence Using Two-Way Tables

Exit Ticket

A state nonprofit organization wanted to encourage its members to consider the State of New York as a vacation
destination. They are investigating whether their online ad campaign influenced its members to plan a vacation in New
York within the next year. The organization surveyed its members and found that 75% of them have seen the online ad.
40% of its members indicated they are planning to vacation in New York within the next year, and 15% of its members
did not see the ad and do not plan to vacation in New York within the next year.
1. Complete the following hypothetical 1000 two-way frequency table:

Do Not Plan to Vacation In

Plan to Vacation in New York
New York Within the Next Total
Within the Next Year
Year

Watched the Online Ad

Did Not Watch the

Online Ad

Total

2. Based on the two-way table, describe two conditional probabilities you could calculate to help decide if members
who saw the online ad are more likely to plan a vacation in New York within the next year than those who did not
see the ad.

Lesson 3: Calculating Conditional Probabilities and Evaluating Independence 47

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3. Calculate the probabilities you described in Problem 2.

4. Based on the probabilities calculated in Problem 3, do you think the ad campaign is effective in encouraging people
to vacation in New York? Explain your answer.

Lesson 3: Calculating Conditional Probabilities and Evaluating Independence 48

Using Two-Way Tables

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

A state nonprofit organization wanted to encourage its members to consider the State of New York as a vacation
destination. They are investigating whether their online ad campaign influenced its members to plan a vacation in New
York within the next year. The organization surveyed its members and found % of them have seen the online ad.
% of its members indicated they are planning to vacation in New York within the next year, and % of its members
did not see the ad and do not plan to vacation in New York within the next year.

1. Complete the following hypothetical 1000 two-way frequency table:

Plan to Vacation in New York Do Not Plan to Vacation in New

Total
Within the Next Year York Within the Next Year
Watched the Online
Ad
Did Not Watch the
Online Ad
Total ,

2. Based on the two-way table, describe two conditional probabilities you could calculate to help decide if members
who saw the online ad are more likely to plan a vacation in New York within the next year than those who did not
see the ad.

The probability that a randomly selected member who watched the ad is planning to vacation in New York

The probability that a randomly selected member who did not watch the ad is planning to vacation in New York

3. Calculate the probabilities you described in Problem 2.

The probability that a member who watched the ad is planning a vacation in New York: = .

The probability that a member who did not watch the ad is planning a vacation in New York: = .

4. Based on the probabilities calculated in Problem 3, do you think the ad campaign is effective in encouraging people
to vacation in New York? Explain your answer.

The conditional probabilities are the same. It does not appear that the ad campaign is encouraging people to
vacation in New York.

Problem Set Sample Solutions

Oostburg College has a rather large marching band. Engineering majors were heard bragging that students majoring in
engineering are more likely to be involved in the marching band than students from other majors.

1. If the above claim is accurate, does that mean that most of the band is engineering students? Explain your answer.

No. It means that if a randomly selected student is an engineering major, the probability this person is in the
marching band is greater than if this person was not an engineering major.

Lesson 3: Calculating Conditional Probabilities and Evaluating Independence 49

Using Two-Way Tables

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2. The following graph was prepared to investigate the above claim:

Based on the graph, complete the following two-way frequency table:

In the Marching Band Not in the Marching Band Total

Engineering Major
Not Engineering
Major
Total

3. Let represent the event that a randomly selected student is in the marching band. Let represent the event that
a randomly selected student is an engineering major.
a. Describe the event represented by the complement of .

A randomly selected student is not in the marching band.

b. Describe the event represented by the complement of .

A randomly selected student is not majoring in engineering.

c. Describe the event and ( intersect ).

A randomly selected student is majoring in engineering and is in the marching band.

d. Describe the event or ( union ).

A randomly selected student is majoring in engineering or is in the marching band.

The union can be a challenge for students to describe or to identify. Start with one of the joint cells of the two-way
table. Ask if the joint cell includes students majoring in engineering or students in the marching band. If either
description applies, then that cell is part of the union. Work through each of the joint cells in this way to identify all of
the cells that compose the union.

Lesson 3: Calculating Conditional Probabilities and Evaluating Independence 50

Using Two-Way Tables

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4. Based on the completed two-way frequency table, determine the following, and explain how you got your answer:
a. The probability that a randomly selected student is in the marching band

I compared the number of students in the marching band to the total number of students.

b. The probability that a randomly selected student is an engineering major

I compared the number of engineering majors to the total number of students

c. The probability that a randomly selected student is in the marching band and an engineering major

I found the number of students who are in the band and are engineering majors and compared it to the total
number of students.

d. The probability that a randomly selected student is in the marching band and not an engineering major

I found the number of students who are in the band and are NOT engineering majors and compared it to the
total number of students.

5. Indicate if the following conditional probabilities would be calculated using the rows or the columns of the two-way
frequency table:
a. A randomly selected student is majoring in engineering. What is the probability this student is in the
marching band?

This probability is based on the row Engineering Major.

b. A randomly selected student is not in the marching band. What is the probability that this student is
majoring in engineering?

This probability is based on the column Not in the Marching Band.

6. Based on the two-way frequency table, determine the following conditional probabilities:
a. A randomly selected student is majoring in engineering. What is the probability that this student is in the
marching band?

b. A randomly selected student is not majoring in engineering. What is the probability that this student is in the
marching band?

Lesson 3: Calculating Conditional Probabilities and Evaluating Independence 51

Using Two-Way Tables

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7. The claim that started this investigation was that students majoring in engineering are more likely to be in the
marching band than students from other majors. Describe the conditional probabilities that would be used to
determine if this claim is accurate.

Given a randomly selected student is an engineering major, what is the probability the student is in the marching
band. Also, given a randomly selected student is not an engineering major, what is the probability the student is in
the marching band.

8. Based on the two-way frequency table, calculate the conditional probabilities identified in Problem 7.

The probabilities were calculated in Problem 6. Approximately . (or . %) of the engineering students are in
the marching band. Approximately . (or . %) of the students not majoring in engineering are in the
marching band.

9. Do you think the claim that students majoring in engineering are more likely to be in the marching band than
students for other majors is accurate? Explain your answer.

The claim is accurate based on the conditional probabilities.

10. There are students at Oostburg College majoring in computer science. Computer science is not considered an
engineering major. Calculate an estimate of the number of computer science majors you think are in the marching
band. Explain how you calculated your estimate.

The probability that a randomly selected student who is not majoring in engineering is in the marching band is
. . As a result, you would estimate that % of the computer science majors are in the marching band.
Since ( . ) = . , I would expect that or computer science majors are in the marching band.

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Using Two-Way Tables

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Lesson 4: Calculating Conditional Probabilities and

Evaluating Independence Using Two-Way Tables

Student Outcomes
Students use a hypothetical 1000 two-way table to calculate probabilities of events.
Students calculate conditional probabilities given a two-way data table or using a hypothetical 1000 two-way
table.
Students use two-way tables (data tables or hypothetical 1000 two-way tables) to determine if two events are
independent.
Students interpret probabilities, including conditional probabilities, in context.

Lesson Notes
This lesson builds on students’ previous work with conditional probabilities to define independent events. In previous
lessons, conditional probabilities were used to investigate whether or not there is a connection between two events.
This lesson formalizes this idea and introduces the concept of independence.

Classwork
Exercise 1 (5 minutes)
Consider asking students to respond to each question independently in writing and then share answers as a class. Allow
multiple student responses for each question.

Exercise 1

In previous lessons, conditional probabilities were used to investigate whether or not there is a connection between two
events. This lesson formalizes this idea and introduces the concept of independence.

1. Several questions are posed below. Each question is about a possible connection between two events. For each
question, identify the two events, and indicate whether or not you think that there would be a connection. Explain
your reasoning.
a. Are high school students whose parents or guardians set a midnight curfew less likely
to have a traffic violation than students whose parents or guardians have not set such Scaffolding:
a curfew? Consider focusing on only one
Responses vary. of these examples. Also,
consider revising examples to
The two events are “parents set a midnight curfew” and “students have a traffic
violation.” Anticipate that students may indicate either that students with a curfew be more representative of
are less likely to have a traffic violation or that there is no connection. Either answer students’ experiences and
is acceptable as long as students provide an explanation. interests. Supplying a visual to
accompany the situations may
also increase accessibility.

Lesson 4: Calculating Conditional Probabilities and Evaluating Independence Using 53

Two-Way Tables

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b. Are left-handed people more likely than right-handed people to be interested in the arts?

Responses vary.

The two events are “people are right-handed” and “people are interested in the arts.” Students may argue
that there is a connection or that there is not a connection between being right-handed and being interested
in the arts. Look for some reasoning that indicates that if one of the descriptions is met (selecting a right-
handed person), it is more (or less) likely this person is also interested in the arts. Students may indicate that
they do not think that there is a connection, which is acceptable as long as they explain their reasoning.

c. Are students who regularly listen to classical music more likely to be interested in mathematics than students
who do not regularly listen to classical music?

Responses vary.

The two events are “students regularly listen to classical music” and “students are interested in
mathematics.” Students may argue that there is a connection or there is not a connection between classical
music and an interest in mathematics. Look for some reasoning that indicates that if one of the descriptions is
met, it is more likely the other description will or will not occur.

d. Are people who play video games more than hours per week more likely to select football as their favorite
sport than people who do not play video games more than hours per week?

Responses vary.

The two events are “people who play video games more than hours per week” and “people whose favorite
sport is football.” Students may argue that there is a connection or there is not a connection between video
games and an interest in football, which is acceptable as long as they explain their reasoning.

Ask students to write down the answer to the question below. How can conditional probabilities be used to tell if two
events are independent or not independent? Then, ask students to share their conjectures with a partner.

Two events are independent when knowing that one event has occurred does not change the likelihood that the second
MP.3
event has occurred. How can conditional probabilities be used to tell if two events are independent or not independent?

Exercises 2–6 (15 minutes)

A two-way frequency table is used in these exercises in order to calculate probabilities, which helps students answer the
types of questions posed in Exercise 1. The conditional probabilities are used to develop an understanding of the
concept of independence. The data and several of the calculations in these exercises were first introduced in Lesson 3.
This is intentional because the following exercises formalize ideas developed in students’ previous work.

Exercises 2–6

Recall the hypothetical 1000 two-way frequency table that was used to classify students at Rufus King High School
according to gender and whether or not they participated in an after-school athletics program.

Table 1: Participation of Male and Female Students in an After-School Athletics Program

Participate in an After-School Do Not Participate in an

Total
Athletics Program After-School Athletics Program
Female
Male
Total ,

Lesson 4: Calculating Conditional Probabilities and Evaluating Independence Using 54

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2. For each of the following, indicate whether the probability described is one that can be calculated using the values
in Table 1. Also indicate whether or not it is a conditional probability.
a. The probability that a randomly selected student participates in an after-school athletics program

This probability can be calculated from the values in the table. It is not a conditional probability.
The probability is based on the entire school population.

b. The probability that a randomly selected student who is female participates in an after-school athletics
program

This probability can be calculated from the values in the table. It is a conditional probability because it is a
probability based on only the female students at the school.

c. The probability that a randomly selected student who is male participates in an after-school athletics
program

This probability can be calculated from the values in the table. It is a conditional probability because it is
based on only the male students at the school.

3. Use Table 1 to calculate each of the probabilities described in Exercise 2.

a. The probability that a randomly selected student participates in an after-school athletics program

= . (This means that % of all students participate in after-school athletics programs.)

b. The probability that a randomly selected student who is female participates in an after-school athletics
program

= . (This means that % of female students participate in after-school athletics programs.)

c. The probability that a randomly selected student who is male participates in an after-school athletics
program

= . (This means that % of male students participate in after-school athletics programs.)

Exercise 4 is an important question as it provides students an understanding of the meaning of independent events.
Students are expected to connect the concept of conditional probabilities with the definition of independent events.
MP.2
This exercise also provides students an opportunity to express their reasoning abstractly and quantitatively. Students
use numerical probabilities to make inferences about real-world situations. Allow students to work individually on this
question for a few minutes, and then discuss as a whole group. Use this question to define two independent events.
Two events are independent when knowing that one event has occurred does not change the likelihood that
the second event has occurred. How can conditional probabilities be used to tell if two events are
independent or not independent?
Allow for multiple responses. Then, read through the definition, which is also provided for students, so
that they can use it to complete this lesson.

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Two-Way Tables

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4. Would your prediction of whether or not a student participates in an after-school athletics program change if you
knew the gender of the student? Explain your answer.

No. Based on the conditional probabilities, the probability that a student participates in an after-school athletics
program is . for both male and female students.

Two events are independent if knowing that one event has occurred does not change the probability that the other event
has occurred. For example, consider the following two events:

: The event that a randomly selected student is female

: The event that a randomly selected student participates in an after-school athletics program

Events and would be independent if the probability that a randomly selected student participates in an after-school
athletics program is equal to the probability that a randomly selected student who is female participates in an after-
school athletics program. If this was the case, knowing that a randomly selected student is female does not change the
probability that the selected student participates in an after-school athletics program. Then, and would be
independent.

Exercise 5 and the definition of independence provide the opportunity to have students
explore independence using the conditional probabilities based on columns. Exercise 6 is Scaffolding:
designed for students to observe that the probability that a randomly selected student
Students may have learned the
who participates in an after-school athletics program is female is equal to the probability term independence or
that a randomly selected student (from the entire school population) is female. The independent in other contexts
probability that a randomly selected student who participates in an after-school athletics (such as social studies) and, as
program is male is equal to the probability that a randomly selected student (from the such, may need opportunities
entire school population) is male. Point out that when this happens, then the events are to add to their understandings.
independent. Also point out that conditional probabilities in either row or column can be A Frayer model diagram may
used to decide if events are independent. be useful for this purpose.

5. Based on the definition of independence, are the events “randomly selected student is
female” and “randomly selected student participates in an after-school athletics program”
independent? Explain.
Yes, they are independent because knowing that a randomly selected student is female does
not change the probability that the selected student participates in an after-school athletics
program. The probability that a randomly selected student participates in an after-school
athletics program is . , and the probability that a randomly selected student who is
female participates is also . .

6. A randomly selected student participates in an after-school athletics program.

a. What is the probability this student is female?

= .

This is equal to the probability that a randomly selected student is female.

b. Using only your answer from part (a), what is the probability that this student is male? Explain how you
arrived at your answer.

The probability is . .

The probability in part (a) can be interpreted as % of the students who participate in after-school athletics
programs are female. The rest must be male, so the probability that a randomly selected student who
participates in an after-school athletics program is male is . . . = .

Lesson 4: Calculating Conditional Probabilities and Evaluating Independence Using 56

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Exercises 7–11 (15 minutes)

The following exercises also provide examples of events that are not independent. Students may have already expressed
this idea in their previous work. They now have a more formal way to express the relationship between two events.

Exercises 7–11

Consider the data below.

No Household At Least One Household

Total
Member Smokes Member Smokes
Student Has Asthma
Student Does Not Have
Asthma
Total

7. You are asked to determine if the two events “a randomly selected student has asthma” and “a randomly selected
student has a household member who smokes” are independent. What probabilities could you calculate to answer
this question?

Students could indicate that the probability of selecting a student who has a household member who smokes is the
same for students who have asthma as for those who do not have asthma. Or students could indicate that the
probability of selecting a student who has a household member who smokes from the students who have asthma
would need to be equal to the probability of selecting a student who has a household member who smokes from all
of the students. Or students could indicate that the probability of selecting a student who has a household member
who smokes from the students who do not have asthma would need to be equal to the probability of selecting a
student who has a household member who smokes from all of the students.

Students could also indicate that conditional probabilities based on the columns would have to be equal for the
events to be independent. The probability of selecting a student who has asthma from the students who have no
household member who smokes would need to be equal to the probability of selecting a student who has asthma
from the students who have at least one household member who smokes.

8. Calculate the probabilities you described in Exercise 7.

The row conditional probabilities described are as follows:

The column conditional probabilities described are as follows:

9. Based on the probabilities you calculated in Exercise 8, are these two events independent or not independent?
Explain.

No. The conditional probabilities need to be equal for the events to be independent.

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10. Is the probability that a randomly selected student who has asthma and who has a household member who smokes
the same as or different from the probability that a randomly selected student who does not have asthma but does
have a household member who smokes? Explain your answer.

The probabilities are different as the events are not independent. The probability of a randomly selected student
who has asthma having a household member who smokes is , which is approximately . . The probability of a
randomly selected student who does not have asthma having a household member who smokes is , which is
approximately . .

11. A student is selected at random. The selected student indicates that he has a household member who smokes.
What is the probability that the selected student has asthma?

= . This is the conditional probability that a randomly selected student who has a household family
member who smokes has asthma.

Closing (5 minutes)
Ask students to summarize the main ideas of the lesson in writing or with a neighbor. Use this as an opportunity to
informally assess comprehension of the lesson. The Lesson Summary below offers some important ideas that should be
included.
It is important that students do not conclude that just because two events are not independent, there is a relationship
between the events that indicates one event causes the other. Students often make this mistake. (Causation is covered
in Algebra I.)
Explain to students that when two events are not independent, it is important to remember that this does not mean that
one event causes the other (causation). The asthma research was not a statistical experiment. There may be other
possible explanations for why the events “has asthma” and “has a household member who smokes” might not be
independent.
If you know the probability that a randomly selected student from your school plans to attend a college or
university after graduation, and you also know the probability that a randomly selected student from your
school has a job, what would it mean for these two events to be independent?
Students should indicate that knowing one event has occurred (for example, the selected student plans
to attend college) does not change the probability that the second event occurred (for example, the
selected student has a job).

Lesson Summary
Data organized in a two-way frequency table can be used to calculate conditional probabilities.

Two events are independent if knowing that one event has occurred does not change the probability that the
second event has occurred.

Probabilities calculated from two-way frequency tables can be used to determine if two events are independent or
not independent.

Exit Ticket (5 minutes)

Lesson 4: Calculating Conditional Probabilities and Evaluating Independence Using 58

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Name Date

Lesson 4: Calculating Conditional Probabilities and Evaluating

Independence Using Two-Way Tables

Exit Ticket

1. The following hypothetical 1000 two-way table was introduced in the previous lesson:

Do Not Plan to Vacation in

Plan to Vacation in New York
New York Within the Next Total
Within the Next Year
Year
Watched the Online Ad 300 450 750
Did Not Watch the Online
100 150 250
Ad
Total 400 600 1,000

Are the events “a randomly selected person watched the online ad” and “a randomly selected person plans to
vacation in New York within the next year” independent or not independent? Justify your answer using probabilities
calculated from information in the table.

2. A survey conducted at a local high school indicated that 30% of students have a job during the school year.
If having a job and being in the eleventh grade are not independent, what do you know about the probability that a
randomly selected student who is in the eleventh grade would have a job? Justify your answer.

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Two-Way Tables

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3. Eighty percent of the dogs at a local kennel are in good health. If the events “a randomly selected dog at this kennel
is in good health” and “a randomly selected dog at this kennel weighs more than 30 pounds” are independent, what
do you know about the probability that a randomly selected dog that weighs more than 30 pounds will be in good
health? Justify your answer.

Lesson 4: Calculating Conditional Probabilities and Evaluating Independence Using 60

Two-Way Tables

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

1. The following hypothetical 1000 two-way table was introduced in the previous lesson:

Plan to Vacation in New York Do Not Plan to Vacation in

Total
Within the Next Year New York Within the Next Year
Watched the Online Ad
Did Not Watch the Online Ad
Total ,

Are the events “a randomly selected person watched the online ad” and “a randomly selected person plans to
vacation in New York within the next year” independent or not independent? Justify your answer using
probabilities calculated from information in the table.

The conditional probabilities that could be used to evaluate if the events are independent are the probability that
given the selected member watched the online ad, the member plans to vacation in New York, and the probability
that given the selected member did not watch the ad, the member plans to vacation in New York. Because the
probabilities are equal, the events are independent.

= . and = .

2. A survey conducted at a local high school indicated that % of students have a job during the school year. If
having a job and being in the eleventh grade are not independent, what do you know about the probability that a
randomly selected student who is in the eleventh grade would have a job? Justify your answer.

The probability that a student selected from the eleventh grade has a job would not be equal to . . Not
independent means that knowing the selected student is in the eleventh grade changes the probability that the
student has a job.

3. Eighty percent of the dogs at a local kennel are in good health. If the events “a randomly selected dog at this kennel
is in good health” and “a randomly selected dog at this kennel weighs more than pounds” are independent, what
do you know about the probability that a randomly selected dog that weighs more than pounds will be in good
health? Justify your answer.

As the events are independent, knowing that the selected dog weighs more than pounds does not change the
probability that the dog is in good health. This means that the probability that a large dog is in good health is also
. .

Problem Set Sample Solutions

1. Consider the following questions:

a. A survey of the students at a Midwest high school asked the following questions:
“Do you use a computer at least times a week to complete your schoolwork?”
“Are you taking a mathematics class?”
Do you think the events “a randomly selected student uses a computer at least times a week” and “a
randomly selected student is taking a mathematics class” are independent or not independent? Explain your
reasoning.
Anticipate students indicate that using a computer at least times per week and taking a mathematics class
are not independent. However, it is also acceptable for students to make a case for independence. Examine
the explanations students provide to see if they understand the meaning of independence.

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b. The same survey also asked students the following:

“Do you participate in any extracurricular activities at your school?”
“Do you know what you want to do after high school?”

Do you think the events “a randomly selected student participates in extracurricular activities” and “a
randomly selected student knows what she wants to do after completing high school” are independent or not
independent? Explain your reasoning.

Answers will vary. Anticipate students indicate that students involved in extracurricular activities are often
students who want to attend college. It is likely the events are not independent.

c. People attending a professional football game in 2013 completed a survey that included the following
questions:
“Is this the first time you have attended a professional football game?”
“Do you think football is too violent?”
Do you think the events “a randomly selected person who completed the survey is attending a professional
football game for the first time” and “a randomly selected person who completed the survey thinks football is
too violent” are independent or not independent? Explain your reasoning.

Answers will vary. Anticipate that students indicate that people who attend football more often are more
likely to not think the game is too violent. It is likely the events are not independent. Again, examine the
explanations students provide if they indicate the events are not independent.

2. Complete the table below in a way that would indicate the two events “uses a computer” and “is taking a
mathematics class” are independent.

Does Not Use a Computer at

Uses a Computer at Least
Least Times a Week Total
Times a Week for Schoolwork
for Schoolwork
In a Mathematics Class
Not in a Mathematics Class
Total ,

The values in the table were based on . of the students not in mathematics use a computer at least times a
week for school ( . × ). Also, . of the students in mathematics use a computer at least times a week
for school ( . × ).

3. Complete the following hypothetical 1000 table. Are the events “participates in extracurricular activities” and
“know what I want to do after high school” independent or not independent? Justify your answer.

Participates in Does Not Participate in

Total
Extracurricular Activities Extracurricular Activities
Know What I Want to Do
After High School
Do Not Know What I Want to
Do After High School
Total ,

The events “student participates in extracurricular activities” and “student knows what I want to do after high
school” are not independent. Students could indicate that the events are not independent in several ways. For
example, (the probability that a randomly selected student who does not know what he wants to do after high
school participates in extracurricular activities) does not equal (the probability that a randomly selected student
who does know what he wants to do after high school participates in extracurricular activities).

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4. The following hypothetical 1000 table is from Lesson 2:

No Household At Least One Household

Total
Member Smokes Member Smokes
Student Has Asthma
Student Does Not Have
Asthma
Total ,

The actual data from the entire population are given in the table below.

No Household At Least One Household

Total
Member Smokes Member Smokes
Student Has Asthma
Student Does Not Have
Asthma
Total

a. Based on the hypothetical 1000 table, what is the probability that a randomly selected student who has
asthma has at least one household member who smokes?

b. Based on the actual data, what is the probability that a randomly selected student who has asthma has at
least one household member who smokes (round your answer to decimal places)?

c. Based on the hypothetical 1000 table, what is the probability that a randomly selected student who has no
household member who smokes has asthma?

d. Based on the actual data, what is the probability that a randomly selected student who has no household
member who smokes has asthma?

e. What do you notice about the probabilities calculated from the actual data and the probabilities calculated
from the hypothetical 1000 table?

The conditional probabilities differ only due to rounding in constructing the hypothetical 1000 table from
probability information based on the actual data. When an actual data table is available, it can be used to
calculate probabilities. When only probability information is available, constructing a hypothetical 1000 table
from that information and using it to compute other probabilities will give the same answers as if the actual
data were available.

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5. As part of the asthma research, the investigators wondered if students who have asthma are less likely to have a pet
at home than students who do not have asthma. They asked the following two questions:
“Do you have asthma?”
“Do you have a pet at home?”
Based on the responses to these questions, you would like to set up a two-way table that you could use to
determine if the following two events are independent or not independent:
Event 1: A randomly selected student has asthma.
Event 2: A randomly selected student has a pet at home.

a. How would you label the rows of the two-way table?

Anticipate students indicate for the rows “Has Asthma” and “Does Not Have Asthma.” Students might use
these labels for the columns rather than the rows, which is also acceptable.

b. How would you label the columns of the two-way table?

Anticipate students indicate for the columns “Has a Pet” and “Does Not Have a Pet.”

c. What probabilities would you calculate to determine if Event 1 and Event 2 are independent?

Answers may vary. Row conditional probabilities or column conditional probabilities would have to be equal
if the events are independent. For column conditional probabilities (based on the definition of rows and
columns above), this would mean that the probability that a randomly selected student who has a pet has
asthma is equal to the probability that a randomly selected student who does not have a pet has asthma.

Lesson 4: Calculating Conditional Probabilities and Evaluating Independence Using 64

Two-Way Tables

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Lesson 5: Events and Venn Diagrams

Student Outcomes
Students represent events by shading appropriate regions in a Venn diagram.
Given a chance experiment with equally likely outcomes, students calculate counts and probabilities by adding
or subtracting given counts or probabilities.
Students interpret probabilities in context.

Lesson Notes
This lesson introduces Venn diagrams to represent the sample space and various events and sets the stage for the two
lessons that follow, which introduce students to probability formulas. The purpose is to provide a bridge between using
the two-way table approach and using formulas to calculate probabilities. Venn diagrams also provide an opportunity to
visually represent the population needed to understand what is requested in the exercises.

Classwork
Opening (4 minutes)
While blank Venn diagrams are supplied for most exercises, use the examples to informally assess students. As students
become proficient with Venn diagrams, consider asking them to solve without providing the diagrams.
Draw the following Venn diagram on the board:
Scaffolding:
For students working above
grade level, consider giving the
image of the Venn diagram and
asking students to describe a
situation that could be
modeled by this Venn diagram.
For students working below
grade level, consider beginning
class by creating a Venn
diagram from information
Discuss the following descriptions of a certain high school: about the class (for example,
which students take chemistry,
442 students participate in organized sports but do not play in the band,
which students take the bus to
31 students play in the band but do not participate in organized sports, school, and which students
21 students participate in organized sports and play in the band, and take chemistry and take the
339 students neither participate in organized sports nor play in the band. bus to school). Basing the
Venn diagram on a concrete
situation may increase
accessibility.

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Indicate to students (especially if this is their first time working with Venn diagrams) that the diagram and the
descriptions of a certain high school are connected. Ask students what they think the outer rectangle represents. If
necessary to continue this discussion, point out that the rectangle is a visual representation of all of the student
population of the school (emphasize population). Also, ask students to explain what they think the circle labeled
represents and what the circle labeled represents. Allow students to develop a description of circle as high school
students who participate in sports and circle as students who play in the band. Ask them to also explain why the
MP.1 circles overlap and what the overlapping part of the circles represents in this school. As students begin to make sense of
&
MP.2 this diagram with the numbers provided about this high school, ask them the following questions:
How many students participate in organized sports?
442 + 21 = 463
How many students play in the band?
31 + 21 = 52
How many students do not participate in organized sports?
31 + 339 = 370
How many students participate in organized sports or play in the band? (Explain that or always includes the
possibility of both.)
442 + 21 + 31 = 494
Connecting the numbers in the Venn diagram to probability questions is a focus of this lesson.

Example 1 (5 minutes): Shading Regions of a Venn Diagram

Here students are introduced to Venn diagrams and are shown the process of shading appropriate regions. Work
through each part as a class.

Example 1: Shading Regions of a Venn Diagram

At a high school, some students play soccer, and some do not. Also, some students play basketball, and some do not.
This scenario can be represented by a Venn diagram, as shown below. The circle labeled represents the students who
play soccer, the circle labeled represents the students who play basketball, and the rectangle represents all the
students at the school.

Lesson 5: Events and Venn Diagrams 66

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On the Venn diagrams provided, shade the region representing the following instances:

a. The students who play soccer b. The students who do not play soccer

c. The students who play soccer and basketball d. The students who play soccer or basketball

Exercise 1 (5 minutes)
Let students work individually shading regions of a Venn diagram. Then, allow them to compare answers with a
neighbor.

Exercise 1

An online bookstore offers a large selection of books. Some of the books are works of fiction, and some are not. Also,
some of the books are available as e-books, and some are not. Let be the set of books that are works of fiction, and let
be the set of books that are available as e-books. On the Venn diagrams provided, shade the regions representing the
following instances.

a. Books that are available as e-books b. Books that are not works of fiction

Lesson 5: Events and Venn Diagrams 67

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c. Books that are works of fiction and available d. Books that are works of fiction or available as
as e-books e-books

e. Books that are neither works of fiction nor f. Books that are works of fiction that are not
available as e-books available as e-books

Example 2 (6 minutes): Showing Numbers of Possible Outcomes (and Probabilities) in a Venn Diagram
Students are introduced to the use of Venn diagrams to display numbers of possible outcomes and probabilities and how
these numbers or probabilities can be added or subtracted.
Note that the technique of showing the number (or probability) associated with an entire circle in the Venn diagram uses
a line drawn to the circle. This is the only way to add this information to the diagram without introducing confusion.
Each of the probabilities in the final part of the question is calculated by dividing the equivalent number in the first Venn
diagram by 500. It is important to point out to students that the four probabilities in the diagram sum to 1, as this fact is
used in the exercises that follow:

Example 2: Showing Numbers of Possible Outcomes (and Probabilities) in a Venn Diagram

Think again about the school introduced in Example 1. Suppose that students play soccer, students play
basketball, and students play both sports. There are a total of students at the school.

a. Complete the Venn diagram below by writing the numbers of students in the various regions of the diagram.

Answer:

Lesson 5: Events and Venn Diagrams 68

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b. How many students play basketball but not soccer?

c. Suppose that a student will be selected at random from the school.

i. What is the probability that the selected student plays both sports?

= .

ii. Complete the Venn diagram below by writing the probabilities associated with the various regions of
the diagram.

Answer:

Example 3 (8 minutes): Adding and Subtracting Probabilities

Students are introduced to problems where probabilities (not counts) are given and to more challenging additions and
subtractions than in Example 2. The proportions are given as percentages in the questions, but the solution should be
expressed entirely in terms of decimals.
Part (b) is designed to demonstrate that students are doing the same work as in the previous lessons but expressing it in
a different way (Venn diagrams instead of hypothetical 1000 tables). However, the process of transcribing the
probabilities from the Venn diagram to the table is a relatively straightforward one, so this part of the question can be
omitted if there is not enough time. Nonetheless, it is important that students be aware that both approaches are valid
and ultimately lead to the same answer.

Example 3: Adding and Subtracting Probabilities

Think again about the online bookstore introduced in Exercise 1, and suppose that % of the books are works of fiction,
% are available as e-books, and % are available as e-books but are not works of fiction. A book will be selected at
random.

a. Using a Venn diagram, find the following probabilities:

i. The book is a work of fiction and available as an e-
book.

( )= .

ii. The book is neither a work of fiction nor available as

an e-book.

( )= .

Lesson 5: Events and Venn Diagrams 69

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Scaffolding:
b. Return to the information given at the beginning of the question: % of the books
are works of fiction, % are available as e-books, and % are available as e-books Consider asking students to
but are not works of fiction. generate their own tables
i. How would this information be shown in a hypothetical 1000 table? (Show rather than completing one
your answers in the table provided below.) that is already constructed.
Fiction Not Fiction Total
Available as E-Book
Not Available as E-Book
Total ,

ii. Complete the hypothetical 1000 table given above.

iii. Complete the table below showing the probabilities of the events represented by the cells in the table.

Fiction Not Fiction Total

Available as E-Book . . .
Not Available as E-Book . . .
Total . .

iv. How do the probabilities in your table relate to the probabilities you calculated in part (a)?

The probabilities are the same.

Exercise 2 (5 minutes)
Students practice the approaches introduced in the preceding examples. In this exercise, students are given an
MP.2 opportunity to reason abstractly and quantitatively by using a Venn diagram to represent the given information and
answering questions about probability.
Let students work with a partner and confirm answers as a class. In this exercise, students could be permitted to omit
part (c) if they might be short of time.

Exercise 2

When a fish is selected at random from a tank, the probability that it has a green tail is . , the probability that it has
red fins is . , and the probability that it has both a green tail and red fins is . .

a. Draw a Venn diagram to represent this information.

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b. Find the following probabilities:

i. The fish has red fins but does not have a green tail.

. . = .

ii. The fish has a green tail but not red fins.

. . = .

iii. The fish has neither a green tail nor red fins.

. . . = .

c. Complete the table below showing the probabilities of the events corresponding to the cells of the table.

Green Tail Not Green Tail Total

Red Fins . . .
Not Red Fins . . .
Total . . .

Exercise 3 (5 minutes)
This exercise is slightly more challenging and provides additional practice with the process of adding and subtracting
probabilities using a Venn diagram. The proportions are given in the question as percentages, but the solution should be
expressed entirely in terms of decimals, as probabilities are typically expressed on a scale from 0 to 1.
Let students continue to work with a partner and then confirm the answer as a class.

Exercise 3

In a company, % of the employees have access to a fax machine, % have access to a fax machine and a scanner, and
% have access to neither a fax machine nor a scanner. Suppose that an employee will be selected at random. Using a
Venn diagram, calculate the probability that the randomly selected employee will not have access to a scanner. (Note
that Venn diagrams and probabilities use decimals or fractions, not percentages.) Explain how you used the Venn
diagram to determine your answer.

( )= . + . = .
I can see from the Venn diagram that % of the employees have access to
a fax machine but not a scanner, and % do not have access to either.
So, I combined the two to find the probability that a randomly selected
employee will not have access to a scanner.

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Closing (2 minutes)
If time allows, consider introducing the mathematical symbols for and, or, and not. This terminology and the notation
for intersections, unions, and complements are introduced in Problem 4 of the Problem Set, but if there is time, consider
doing this problem in class.
The intersection of the set and the set is written as and is read as intersect . It consists of the
elements that are in both and .
The union of the set and the set is written as and is read as union . It consists of the elements
that are in either or or both.
The complement of the set is written as and is read as complement. It consists of the elements that are
not in . Other common notations for the complement are and .
Note that it may be useful for students to have access to these symbols in a graphic organizer or as a visual on a poster.
This should include the symbol, what it is called, and what it means.
Ask students to summarize the main ideas of the lesson in writing or with a neighbor. Use this as an opportunity to
informally assess comprehension of the lesson. The Lesson Summary below offers some important concepts that should
be included.

Lesson Summary
In a probability experiment, the events can be represented by circles in a Venn diagram.

Combinations of events using and, or, and not can be shown by shading the appropriate regions of the Venn
diagram.

The number of possible outcomes can be shown in each region of the Venn diagram; alternatively, probabilities
may be shown. The number of outcomes in a given region (or the probability associated with it) can be calculated
by adding or subtracting the known numbers of possible outcomes (or probabilities).

Exit Ticket (5 minutes)

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Name Date

Lesson 5: Events and Venn Diagrams

Exit Ticket

1. At a high school, some students take Spanish, and some do not. Also, some students take an arts subject, and some
do not. Let be the set of students who take Spanish and be the set of students who take an arts subject. On the
Venn diagrams given, shade the region representing the following instances:

a. Students who take Spanish and an arts subject b. Students who take Spanish or an arts subject

c. Students who take Spanish but do not take an arts d. Students who do not take an arts subject
subject

Lesson 5: Events and Venn Diagrams 73

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2. When a player is selected at random from a high school boys’ baseball team, the probability that he is a pitcher is
0.35, the probability that he is right-handed is 0.79, and the probability that he is a right-handed pitcher is 0.26. Let
be the event that a player is a pitcher, and let be the event that a player is right-handed. A Venn diagram is
provided below.

Use the Venn diagram to calculate the probability that a randomly selected player is each of the following. Explain
how you used the Venn diagram to determine your answer.
a. Right-handed but not a pitcher

b. A pitcher but not right-handed

c. Neither right-handed nor a pitcher

Lesson 5: Events and Venn Diagrams 74

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

1. At a high school, some students take Spanish, and some do not. Also, some students take an arts subject, and some
do not. Let be the set of students who take Spanish and be the set of students who take an arts subject. On the
Venn diagrams given, shade the region representing the following instances:

a. Students who take Spanish and an arts subject b. Students who take Spanish or an arts subject

c. Students who take Spanish but do not take an d. Students who do not take an arts subject
arts subject

2. When a player is selected at random from a high school boys’ baseball team, the probability that he is a pitcher is
. , the probability that he is right-handed is . , and the probability that he is a right-handed pitcher is . .
Let be the event that a player is a pitcher, and let be the event that a player is right-handed. A Venn diagram is
provided below.

Use the Venn diagram to calculate the probability that a randomly selected player is each of the following. Explain
how you used the Venn diagram to determine your answer.
a. Right-handed but not a pitcher

. . = .
I found the probability that the player was right-handed ( . ) and subtracted the probability that the player
was also a pitcher ( . ).

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b. A pitcher but not right-handed

. . = .
I found the probability that the player was a pitcher ( . ) and subtracted the probability that the player was
also right-handed ( . ).

c. Neither right-handed nor a pitcher

. . . = .
I used the Venn diagram to determine all of the probabilities associated with the player being right-handed
and/or a pitcher. Then, I subtracted each from to find the probability that the player was not either.

Problem Set Sample Solutions

1. On a flight, some of the passengers have frequent-flier status, and some do not. Also, some of the passengers have
checked baggage, and some do not. Let the set of passengers who have frequent-flier status be and the set of
passengers who have checked baggage be . On the Venn diagrams provided, shade the regions representing the
following instances:

a. Passengers who have frequent-flier status and b. Passengers who have frequent-flier status or
have checked baggage have checked baggage

c. Passengers who do not have both frequent- d. Passengers who have frequent-flier status or do
flier status and checked baggage not have checked baggage

Lesson 5: Events and Venn Diagrams 76

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2. For the scenario introduced in Problem 1, suppose that, of the people on the flight, have checked baggage,
have checked baggage but do not have frequent-flier status, and have neither frequent-flier status nor
checked baggage.
a. Using a Venn diagram, calculate the following:
i. The number of people on the flight who have
frequent-flier status and have checked baggage

Number of passengers with frequent-flier status

and checked baggage:

ii. The number of people on the flight who have

frequent-flier status

Number of passengers with frequent-flier status:

b. In the Venn diagram provided below, write the probabilities of the events associated with the regions marked
with a star (*).

Answer:

3. When an animal is selected at random from those at a zoo, the probability that it is North American (meaning that
its natural habitat is in the North American continent) is . , the probability that it is both North American and a
carnivore is . , and the probability that it is neither American nor a carnivore is . .
a. Using a Venn diagram, calculate the probability that a randomly selected animal is a carnivore.

( )= . + . = .

b. Complete the table below showing the probabilities of the events corresponding to the cells of the table.

North American Not North American Total

Carnivore . . .
Not Carnivore . . .
Total . . .

Lesson 5: Events and Venn Diagrams 77

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4. This question introduces the mathematical symbols for and, or, and not.
Considering all the people in the world, let be the set of Americans (citizens of the United States), and let be the
set of people who have brothers.

The set of people who are Americans and have brothers is represented by the shaded region in the Venn
diagram below.

This set is written (read intersect ), and the probability that a randomly selected person is
American and has a brother is written ( ).

The set of people who are Americans or have brothers is represented by the shaded region in the Venn
diagram below.

This set is written (read union ), and the probability that a randomly selected person is American or
has a brother is written ( ).

The set of people who are not Americans is represented by the shaded region in the Venn diagram below.

This set is written (read complement), and the probability that a randomly selected person is not
American is written ( ).

Lesson 5: Events and Venn Diagrams 78

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Now, think about the cars available at a dealership. Suppose a car is selected at random from the cars at this
dealership. Let the event that the car has manual transmission be denoted by , and let the event that the car is a
sedan be denoted by . The Venn diagram below shows the probabilities associated with four of the regions of the
diagram.

a. What is the value of ( )?

b. Complete this sentence using and or or:

( ) is the probability that a randomly selected car has a manual transmission and is a sedan.

c. What is the value of ( )?

. + . + . = .

d. Complete this sentence using and or or:

( ) is the probability that a randomly selected car has a manual transmission or is a sedan.

e. What is the value of ( )?

( . + . )= .

f. Explain the meaning of ( ).

( ) is the probability that a randomly selected car is not a sedan.

Lesson 5: Events and Venn Diagrams 79

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Lesson 6: Probability Rules

Student Outcomes
Students use the complement rule to calculate the probability of the complement of an event and the
multiplication rule for independent events to calculate the probability of the intersection of two independent
events.
Students recognize that two events and are independent if and only if ( and ) = ( ) ( ) and
interpret independence of two events and as meaning that the conditional probability of given is
equal to ( ).
Students use the formula for conditional probability to calculate conditional probabilities and interpret
probabilities in context.

Lesson Notes
This lesson introduces the formulas for calculating the probability of the complement of an event, the probability of an
intersection when events are independent, and conditional probabilities. Because these concepts have already been
presented using the more intuitive approach of earlier lessons, students should readily understand why the formulas are
true.

Classwork
Opening (4 minutes)
Begin this lesson by asking students the following questions:
There are 300 students at a certain school. All students indicated they were
either right-handed or left-handed but not both. Fifty of the students are left- Scaffolding:
handed. How many students are right-handed? What is the probability of For students who are struggling
randomly selecting a right-handed student at this school? How did you with this concept, consider
determine this? displaying a visual of the
The United States Census Bureau indicates there are 19,378,102 people in the numerical representation of
State of New York. If 4,324,929 are under the age of 18, how many are 18 and each problem (e.g., 300 50,
older? What is the probability of randomly selecting a person from New York 19 378 102 4 324 929,
who is 18 or older? How did you determine this? 100% 20%) and asking
them, “What do all of these
It is estimated that approximately 20% of the people in the United States have
expressions have in common?”
asthma and severe allergies. What is the probability that a randomly selected
person does not have asthma or a severe allergy? How did you determine this?

Lesson 6: Probability Rules 80

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Discuss with students how these examples, or similar examples, involve finding the Scaffolding:
probability of the complement of a given event. Work with students in deriving the Clarify that the term
probabilities by thinking of the probability of people who are not in the given complement is not the same as
probability and connecting that probability to the fact that the two probabilities (or compliment. Point out the
the probability of the given event and the probability of the complement) add up to difference in spelling between
1.00 or 100%. Although students have previously worked with this idea, this lesson the terms, as well as their
formalizes their understanding of complement and the probability of complementary meanings.
events. The complement of any event
Use this as an opportunity to have students look for a general method or rule for is the event that does not
MP.8 determining the probability of the complement of an event. Encourage students to occur.
try to write a rule, and ask them to share it with their neighbor. A compliment is an expression
of respect or admiration.
Based on the three examples we looked at, what is a general rule we could Consider using visual displays
write to determine the probability of the complement of an event? and repeated choral readings
to reinforce the mathematical
meaning of the word.
Example 1 (3 minutes): The Complement Rule A Frayer model may also be
used.
At this point, students have informally used the complement rule, but in this example
it is given as a formula. The example serves as a quick illustration of the rule. Read
through the example as a class, and then give students a moment to calculate the
probability presented at the end of the example.

Example 1: The Complement Rule

In previous lessons, you have seen that to calculate the probability that an event does not
happen, you can subtract the probability of the event from . If the event is denoted by ,
then this rule can be written:
( )= ( ).

For example, suppose that the probability that a particular flight is on time is . .
What is the probability that the flight is not on time?
( )= . = .
Scaffolding:
In addition to using Venn
diagrams, if students have
Example 2 (6 minutes): Formula for Conditional Probability trouble identifying the
intersection of two events,
The purpose of this example is to introduce the formula for conditional probability.
point out real-world examples
A conditional probability is first calculated using a hypothetical 1000 table (as in
like intersecting streets to
previous lessons), and then the formula is shown to produce the same result.
connect students to the
When working through part (c) with the class, it would be helpful to illustrate the concept.
division with the aid of a Venn diagram so that students get a visual idea of what is Students may confuse the term
being divided by what. (The probability of the intersection is being divided by the conditional with conditioner or
probability of .) condition. Point out the
difference in spelling and
Consider asking students to try solving the entire problem or parts and then meaning.
discussing the results as a class.
Again, the use of visuals and
repeated choral readings helps
reinforce these words.

Lesson 6: Probability Rules 81

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.
Additionally, point out that is exactly the same thing as (the numerator and the denominator have been divided
.
by 1,000). By seeing this, students should see why the conditional probability formula is valid. (This is the main point of
this example.)

Example 2: Formula for Conditional Probability

When a room is randomly selected in a downtown hotel, the probability that the room has a king-sized bed is . , the
probability that the room has a view of the town square is . , and the probability that it has a king-sized bed and a
view of the town square is . . Let be the event that the room has a king-sized bed, and let be the event that the
room has a view of the town square.

a. What is the meaning of ( ) in this context?

( ) is the probability that a room known to have a view of the town square also has a king-sized
bed.

b. Use a hypothetical 1000 table to calculate ( given ).

Not
(room has a king-sized (room does not have a Total
bed) king-sized bed)

(room has a view of the

town square)
Not
(room does not have a
view of the town square)
Total ,

( )= .

c. There is also a formula for calculating a conditional probability. The formula for conditional probability is
( )
( )= .
( )
Use this formula to calculate ( ), where the events and are as defined in this example.
( ) .
( )= = .
( ) .

d. How does the probability you calculated using the formula compare to the probability you calculated using
the hypothetical 1000 table?

The probabilities are the same.

Exercise 1 (15 minutes)

This exercise provides practice using the conditional probability formula. Additionally, in part (e), students are asked to
compare a conditional and an unconditional probability and to provide an interpretation. In part (f), students are asked
to recall the definition of independence in terms of equality of the conditional and unconditional probabilities.

Lesson 6: Probability Rules 82

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Let students work with a partner and then confirm answers as a class, spending about 10 minutes total on the exercise.
After confirming the answer to part (f), present the multiplication rule for independent events (approximately
5 minutes). Use this as an opportunity to informally assess student understanding of the lesson’s outcomes.

Exercise 1

A credit card company states that % of its customers are classified as long-term cardholders, % pay their bills in full
each month, and % are long-term cardholders who also pay their bills in full each month. Let the event that a
randomly selected customer is a long-term cardholder be and the event that a randomly selected customer pays his bill
in full each month be .

a. What are the values of ( ), ( ), and ( )?

( )= . , ( )= . , ( )= .

b. Draw a Venn diagram, and label it with the probabilities from part (a).

c. Use the conditional probability formula to calculate ( ). (Round your answer to the nearest
thousandth.)
( ) .
( )= = .
( ) .

d. Use the conditional probability formula to calculate ( ). (Round your answer to the nearest
thousandth.)
( ) .
( )= = .
( ) .

e. Which is greater, ( ) or ( )? Explain why this is relevant.

( ) . , and ( ) = . ; therefore, ( ) is larger than ( ). This tells us that
long-term cardholders are more likely to pay their bills in full each month than customers in general.

f. Remember that two events and are said to be independent if ( ) = ( ). Are the events
and independent? Explain.

Note that there are several ways to answer this question. Here are three possibilities:

No, because ( ) ( ).

No, because ( ) ( ).

No, because ( ) ( ) ( ).

Lesson 6: Probability Rules 83

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After confirming answers to part (f), introduce the multiplication rule for independent Scaffolding:
events.
For students working above
Events and are independent if and only if ( and ) = ( ) ( ). grade level, consider asking the
following:
This means that if we know the events and are independent, then we can conclude “Explain why this statement
that ( and ) = ( ) ( ), and if we know that ( and ) = ( ) ( ), then we makes sense using conditional
can also conclude that the events and are independent. Consider asking students to probabilities.”
state the meaning of this rule in their own words. The easiest way to explain this is as
(The table below offers a
follows:
sample explanation.)

If the events and are independent, then we know: ( given ) = ( )

Use the formula for conditional probability to replace ( given ):

( and ) ( and )
( given ) = = ( )
( ) ( )

Now, isolate ( and ) and conclude that: ( and ) = ( ) ( )

Example 3 (5 minutes): Using the Multiplication Rule for Independent Events

This is an example of the use of the multiplication rule for independent events. There are two ways of telling whether
events are independent. Either it is obvious from the description of the problem (as in part (a)), or the question tells
students that the events are independent (as in part (b)). Consider asking students to attempt to solve independently or
with a neighbor, informally assessing understanding and offering guidance as necessary. When tackling part (a):
Explain to students that the result for the number cube cannot possibly affect the result for the coin, and so
the two events are independent.
Explain that the result of any one roll of the number cube cannot have an effect on the results of the other two
rolls.

Example 3: Using the Multiplication Rule for Independent Events

A number cube has faces numbered through , and a coin has two sides, heads and tails.

The number cube will be rolled, and the coin will be flipped. Find the probability that the cube shows a and the coin
lands on heads. Because the events are independent, we can use the multiplication rules we just learned.

If you toss the coin five times, what is the probability you will see a head on all five tosses?

( . )( . )( . )( . )( . ) = .

If you tossed the coin five times and got five heads, would you think that this coin is a fair coin? Why or why not?

Although getting five heads is possible (about % of the time you would expect this), it is not likely; therefore, you would
suspect that the coin is not fair.

Lesson 6: Probability Rules 84

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If you roll the number cube three times, what is the probability that it will show on all three throws?

= .

If you rolled the number cube three times and got a on all three rolls, would you think that this number cube is fair?
Why or why not?

The probability of getting a on all three rolls is very small. As a result, you suspect the number cube is not fair.

Suppose that the credit card company introduced in Exercise 1 states that when a customer is selected at random, the
probability that the customer pays his bill in full each month is . , the probability that the customer makes regular
online purchases is . , and these two events are independent. What is the probability that a randomly selected
customer pays his bill in full each month and makes regular online purchases?
( . )( . )= .

Exercise 2 (5 minutes)
This exercise provides practice with use of the multiplication rule for independent events. Students should think about
why the events given are independent (in this case, because it is obvious from the problem description). Particularly in
MP.4
part (c), students have an opportunity to interpret their results in the context of the question and to reflect on whether
the results make sense. Consider asking students to work independently on this exercise.

Exercise 2

A spinner has a pointer, and when the pointer is spun, the probability that it stops in the red section of the spinner is
. .

a. If the pointer is spun twice, what is the probability that it will stop in the red section on both occasions?

( . )( . )= .

b. If the pointer is spun four times, what is the probability that it will stop in the red section on all four
occasions? (Round your answer to the nearest thousandth.)
( . )( . )( . )( . ) .

c. If the pointer is spun five times, what is the probability that it never stops on red? (Round your answer to the
nearest thousandth.)
( . )( . )( . )( . )( . ) .

Closing (2 minutes)
Ask students to summarize the main ideas of the lesson in writing or with a neighbor. Use this as an opportunity to
informally assess comprehension of the lesson. The Lesson Summary below offers some important ideas that should be
included.
Does it make sense to consider the two events in Example 3, part (b), to be independent? (Events are that
customer “pays bill in full each month” and “makes regular online purchases.”)
Yes, it seems feasible that long-term cardholders might be as likely to make regular online purchases as
customers in general.

Lesson 6: Probability Rules 85

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Lesson Summary
For any event , ( )= ( ).
( )
For any two events and , ( )= .
( )

Events and are independent if and only if ( ) = ( ) ( ).

Exit Ticket (5 minutes)

Lesson 6: Probability Rules 86

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Name Date

Lesson 6: Probability Rules

Exit Ticket

1. Of the light bulbs available at a store, 42% are fluorescent, 23% are labeled as long life, and 12% are fluorescent
and long life.
a. A light bulb will be selected at random from the light bulbs at this store. Rounding your answer to the nearest
thousandth where necessary, find the probability that
i. The selected light bulb is not fluorescent.

ii. The selected light bulb is fluorescent given that it is labeled as long life.

b. Are the events “fluorescent” and “long life” independent? Explain.

2. When a person is selected at random from a very large population, the probability that the selected person is right-
handed is 0.82. If three people are selected at random, what is the probability that
a. They are all right-handed?

b. None of them is right-handed?

Lesson 6: Probability Rules 87

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

1. Of the light bulbs available at a store, % are fluorescent, % are labeled as long life, and % are fluorescent
and long life.
a. A light bulb will be selected at random from the light bulbs at this store. Rounding your answer to the
nearest thousandth where necessary, find the probability that
i. The selected light bulb is not fluorescent.

. = .

ii. The selected light bulb is fluorescent given that it is labeled as long life.
( ) .
( )= = .
( ) .

b. Are the events “fluorescent” and “long life” independent? Explain.

No. ( ) ( )

2. When a person is selected at random from a very large population, the probability that the selected person is right-
handed is . . If three people are selected at random, what is the probability that
a. They are all right-handed?
( . )( . )( . ) .

b. None of them is right-handed?

( . )( . )( . ) .

Problem Set Sample Solutions

1. When an avocado is selected at random from those delivered to a food store, the probability that it is ripe is . ,
the probability that it is bruised is . , and the probability that it is ripe and bruised is . .
a. Rounding your answers to the nearest thousandth where necessary, find the probability that an avocado
randomly selected from those delivered to the store is
i. Not bruised.

. = .

ii. Ripe given that it is bruised.

( ) .
( )= = .
( ) .

iii. Bruised given that it is ripe.

( ) .
( )= = .
( ) .

b. Which is larger, the probability that a randomly selected avocado is bruised given that it is ripe or the
probability that a randomly selected avocado is bruised? Explain in words what this tells you.

( )= . and ( )= . . Therefore ( ) is greater

than ( ), which tells you that ripe avocados are more likely to be bruised than avocados in general.

Lesson 6: Probability Rules 88

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c. Are the events “ripe” and “bruised” independent? Explain.

No, because ( ) is different from ( ).

2. Return to the probability information given in Problem 1. Complete the hypothetical 1000 table given below, and
use it to find the probability that a randomly selected avocado is bruised given that it is not ripe. (Round your
answer to the nearest thousandth.)

Ripe Not Ripe Total

Bruised
Not Bruised
Total ,

( )= .

3. According to the U.S. census website (www.census.gov), based on the U.S. population in 2010, the probability that a
randomly selected man is 65 or older is . , and the probability that a randomly selected woman is 65 or older is
. . In the questions that follow, round your answers to the nearest thousandth:
a. If a man is selected at random and a woman is selected at random, what is the probability that both people
selected are or older? (Hint: Use the multiplication rule for independent events.)
( . )( . ) .

b. If two men are selected at random, what is the probability that both of them are 65 or older?
( . )( . ) .

c. If two women are selected at random, what is the probability that neither of them is 65 or older?

If one woman is selected at random, the probability that she is not 65 or older is . = . .
So, if two women are selected at random, the probability that neither of them is or older is
( . )( . ) . .

4. In a large community, % of the people are adults, % of the people have traveled outside the state, and %
are adults who have not traveled outside the state.
a. Using a Venn diagram or a hypothetical 1000 table, calculate the probability that a randomly selected person
from the community is an adult and has traveled outside the state.

( )= . . = .

Lesson 6: Probability Rules 89

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b. Use the multiplication rule for independent events to decide whether the events “is an adult” and “has
traveled outside the state” are independent.
( )= .

( ) ( )=( . )( . )= .
Since these two quantities are not equal, the two events are not independent.

5. In a particular calendar year, % of the registered voters in a small city are called for jury duty. In this city, people
are selected for jury duty at random from all registered voters in the city, and the same individual cannot be called
more than once during the calendar year.
a. What is the probability that a registered voter is not called for jury duty during a particular year?

b. What is the probability that a registered voter is called for jury duty two years in a row?

( . )( . )= .

6. A survey of registered voters in a city in New York was carried out to assess support for a new school tax. % of
the respondents supported the school tax. Of those with school-age children, % supported the school tax, while
only % of those who did not have school-age children supported the school tax.
a. If a person who responded to this survey is selected at random, what is the probability that
i. The person selected supports the school tax?

ii. The person supports the school tax given that she does not have school-age children?

b. Are the two events “has school-age children” and “supports the school tax” independent? Explain how you
know this.

These two events are not independent because the probability of support given no school-age children is not
the same as the probability of support.

c. Suppose that % of those responding to the survey were over the age of and that % of those
responding to the survey were both over age and supported the school tax. What is the probability that a
randomly selected person who responded to this survey supported the school tax given that she was over age
?
( )
( )=
( )
.
=
.
.

Lesson 6: Probability Rules 90

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Lesson 7: Probability Rules

Student Outcomes
Students use the addition rule to calculate the probability of a union of two events.
Students interpret probabilities in context.

Lesson Notes
This lesson builds off of the probability rules presented in Lesson 6 and introduces the addition rule for calculating the
probability of the union of two events. The general form of the rule is considered, as well as the special cases for disjoint
and independent events. The use of Venn diagrams is encouraged throughout the lesson to illustrate problems.

Classwork
Opening (3 minutes)
Revisit the high school considered in the opening discussion of Lesson 5. Encourage students to work independently in
finding the answer to the central question, “What is the number of students in the band or in organized sports?”
442 students participate in organized sports but do not play in the band,
31 students play in the band but do not participate in organized sports,
21 students participate in organized sports and play in the band, and
339 students neither participate in organized sports nor play in the band.

Use the Venn diagram to highlight the pieces involved in answering the following questions, as the answers to each of
these questions are used to determine the number of students in the band or in organized sports:
How would you find the number of students in sports?
How would you find the number of students in band?
Point out to students that to answer each of the above questions, they had to add the 21 students involved in sports and
band (the intersection) to find the total number of students in sports or to find the total number of students in band.

Lesson 7: Probability Rules 91

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Discuss how the number of students in band or sports would be calculated if the Scaffolding:
summary of the school was presented differently. In particular, discuss with
Ask students working above grade level
students how they would determine the number of students in band or sports if
to draw a Venn diagram to illustrate this
the description of the school was the following:
scenario and determine how many
463 students are in sports, students are in sports or in the band.
52 students are in the band, and For students working below grade level,
21 students are in both sports and band. use the Venn diagram below to
illustrate this scenario.
The number of students in sports or the number of students in band (called the
S: 463 B: 52
union) is 463 + 52 21. The piece representing students in band and sports (or
the intersection) is part of the total number of students in band, and it is also part
of the total number of students in sports. As a result, if the number of students
in band (52) and the number of students in sports (463) are added together, the
21 students in both band and sports are counted twice. As indicated, it is
necessary to subtract the 21 students in both band and sports to make sure that
these students are counted only once. Generalizing this as a probability of the
union of two overlapping events is the focus of this lesson.

Exercise 1 (9 minutes)
Scaffolding:
Introduce the following addition rule to students. (This rule was informally For students who may be struggling
illustrated with the above example and in several questions in the earlier lessons with this concept, consider displaying
with two-way frequency tables.) The addition rule states that for any two events and discussing several concrete
and , examples in conjunction with the
( or ) = ( ) + ( ) abstract representation.
( and ).
For example, using the case of a coin
To illustrate, draw a Venn diagram, denoting the probabilities of events as shown. flip, with represents the event of
heads and represents the event
of tails:
( or ) = ( ) + ( ) ( and )
1 = 0.5 + 0.5 0

Discuss the meaning of each component

of the equation in context (e.g., 1 makes
sense in this situation because it is
certain that the coin either lands on
(Note that = ( and not ), = ( and ), and = ( and not ), but heads or tails; 0 makes sense because it
the labeling of the Venn diagram should be sufficient to communicate this.) could not land on both heads and tails
in one flip).
Therefore, ( ) + ( ) ( and ) = ( + ) + ( + )
For students working above grade level,
= + + consider encouraging them to
determine the addition rule
= ( or ).
independently by asking, “What is a
general rule for determining ( or )?
Use the example from the Opening to
determine your answer.”

Lesson 7: Probability Rules 92

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Indicate to students that ( or ) is + + using the Venn diagram directly. Note that when the probability of the
events or were added together, the probability of was added twice; therefore, the addition rule indicates that
(the intersection) is subtracted from the sum of the two events to make sure it is not added twice.
Exercise 1 is a straightforward application of the addition rule. Since Exercises 1 and 2 are students’ first experience
using the addition rule, consider having students work in pairs. Use this as an opportunity to informally assess student
understanding of the addition rule.

Exercise 1

When a car is brought to a repair shop for a service, the probability that it will need the transmission fluid replaced is
. , the probability that it will need the brake pads replaced is . , and the probability that it will need both the
transmission fluid and the brake pads replaced is . . Let the event that a car needs the transmission fluid replaced be
and the event that a car needs the brake pads replaced be .

a. What are the values of the following probabilities?

i. ( ) .
ii. ( ) .
iii. ( ) .

b. Use the addition rule to find the probability that a randomly selected car needs the transmission fluid or the
brake pads replaced.
( ) = ( )+ ( ) ( )= . + . . = .

Exercise 2 (5 minutes)
Here students are asked to use the addition rule in conjunction with the multiplication rule for independent events.

Exercise 2

Josie will soon be taking exams in math and Spanish. She estimates that the probability she passes the math exam is . ,
and the probability that she passes the Spanish exam is . . She is also willing to assume that the results of the two
exams are independent of each other.

a. Using Josie’s assumption of independence, calculate the probability that she passes both exams.

( ) = ( . )( . ) = .

b. Find the probability that Josie passes at least one of the exams. (Hint: Passing at least one of the exams is
passing math or passing Spanish.)
( )= ( )+ ( ) ( )
= . + . . = .

Example 1 (7 minutes): Use of the Addition Rule for Disjoint Events

Introduce the idea of disjoint events and how the addition rule for disjoint events is different from the addition rule for
events that had an intersection. While discussing the following examples with students, ask them how these events
differ from the previous examples:
An animal hospital has 5 dogs and 3 cats out of 10 animals in the hospital. What is the probability that an
animal selected at random is a dog or a cat?

Lesson 7: Probability Rules 93

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At a certain high school, 100 students are involved in an after-school community service program. Students
can only sign up for one project. Currently, 25 students are involved in cleaning up nearby parks, 20 students
are tutoring elementary students in mathematics, and the rest of the students are working at helping out at a
community recreational center. What is the probability that a randomly selected student is involved in
cleaning up nearby parks or tutoring elementary students in mathematics?
The above examples are different in that they do not have any students in the intersection. Students would indicate that
the addition rule of two events would not have a piece that needs to be subtracted. The probability of randomly
selecting a dog or a cat is + . The probability of randomly selecting a student involved in cleaning a nearby park or

tutoring elementary students in mathematics is + .

Summarize the following with students:

Two events are said to be disjoint if they have no outcomes in common. So, if the events and are disjoint,
the Venn diagram looks like this.

Another way of describing disjoint events is by saying that they cannot both happen at the Scaffolding:
same time. Continue discussing with students other examples.
Point out to students that the
If a number cube has faces numbered 1–6, and the number cube is rolled once, then the meaning of disjoint can be
events “the result is even” and “the result is a 5” are disjoint (since even and 5 cannot found by examining the prefix
both happen on a single roll), but the events “the result is even” and “the result is greater dis- and the word joint.
than 4” are not (since getting a 6 results in both events occurring). Remind students that dis-
means not. The stem joint has
several other meanings that
It would be a good idea at this stage to provide some other examples of disjoint and non- might need to be explained or
disjoint events so that students get used to the meaning of the term. explored.

If and are disjoint, then ( and ) = 0. So, the addition rule for disjoint events can be written as
( or ) = ( ) + ( ).

Now, work through the example presented in the lesson as a class. This is a straightforward application of the addition
rule for disjoint events.

Lesson 7: Probability Rules 94

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Example 1: Use of the Addition Rule for Disjoint Events

A set of cards consists of the following:

black cards showing squares

black cards showing circles
red cards showing X’s
red cards showing diamonds

A card will be selected at random from the set. Find the probability that the card is black or shows a diamond.

The events “is black” and “shows a diamond” are disjoint since there are no black cards that show diamonds. So,
( )= ( )+ ( )

= +

= = .

Example 2 (4 minutes): Combining Use of the Multiplication and Addition Rules

The addition rule for disjoint events is often used in conjunction with the multiplication rule for independent events.
This example illustrates this.
When tackling part (b), point out to students that the three events—red shows 6 and blue shows 5, red shows 5 and
blue shows 6, red shows 6 and blue shows 6—are disjoint. This is why the probabilities are added together.

Example 2: Combining Use of the Multiplication and Addition Rules

A red cube has faces labeled through , and a blue cube has faces labeled in the same way. The two cubes are rolled.
Find the probability of each event.

a. Both cubes show ’s.

( )= ( ) ( )= =

b. The total score is at least .

( )= ( )+ ( )
+ ( )

( )= + + = + + =

Exercise 3 (7 minutes)
This exercise provides additional practice with the ideas introduced in Example 2. Part (c) is a little more complex than
any part of Example 2, and part (d) requires students to recall the complement rule. Have students first work the
solutions independently. Then, have students compare and discuss solutions with a partner. Ask students to describe
MP.1 and compare with each other how they found their solutions. This is an opportunity for students to show persistence in
solving a problem.

Lesson 7: Probability Rules 95

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Exercise 3

The diagram above shows two spinners. For the first spinner, the scores , , and are equally likely, and for the second
spinner, the scores , , , and are equally likely. Both pointers will be spun. Writing your answers as fractions in
lowest terms, find the probability of each event.

a. The total of the scores on the two spinners is .

( = )= ( , )= =

b. The total of the scores on the two spinners is .

( = )= ( , )+ ( , )= + = + = =

c. The total of the scores on the two spinners is .

( = )= ( , )+ ( , )+ ( , )

= + +

= + +

d. The total of the scores on the two spinners is not .

( )= ( )= =

Closing (3 minutes)
Review the difference between independent and disjoint events.
Define independent and disjoint events.
Two events are independent if knowing that one event has occurred does not change the probability
that the other event has occurred. Two events are said to be disjoint if they have no outcomes in
common.

Lesson 7: Probability Rules 96

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Ask students to summarize the main ideas of the lesson with a neighbor or in writing. Use this as an opportunity to
informally assess comprehension of the lesson. The Lesson Summary below offers some important ideas that should be
included.

Lesson Summary
The addition rule states that for any two events and , ( )= ( )+ ( ) ( ).

The addition rule can be used in conjunction with the multiplication rule for independent events: Events and
are independent if and only if ( ) = ( ) ( ).

Two events are said to be disjoint if they have no outcomes in common. If and are disjoint events, then
( ) = ( ) + ( ).

The addition rule for disjoint events can be used in conjunction with the multiplication rule for independent events.

Exit Ticket (7 minutes)

Lesson 7: Probability Rules 97

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Name ___________________________________________________ Date____________________

Lesson 7: Probability Rules

Exit Ticket

1. When a call is received at an airline’s call center, the probability that it comes from abroad is 0.32, and the
probability that it is to make a change to an existing reservation is 0.38.
a. Suppose that you are told that the probability that a call is both from abroad and is to make a change to an
existing reservation is 0.15. Calculate the probability that a randomly selected call is either from abroad or is
to make a change to an existing reservation.

b. Suppose now that you are not given the information in part (a), but you are told that the events “the call is
from abroad” and “the call is to make a change to an existing reservation” are independent. What is the
probability that a randomly selected call is either from abroad or is to make a change to an existing
reservation?

2. A golfer will play two holes of a course. Suppose that on each hole the player will score 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7, with these
five scores being equally likely. Find the probability, and explain how the answer was determined that the player’s
total score for the two holes will be
a. 14.

b. 12.

Lesson 7: Probability Rules 98

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

1. When a call is received at an airline’s call center, the probability that it comes from abroad is . , and the
probability that it is to make a change to an existing reservation is . .
a. Suppose that you are told that the probability that a call is both from abroad and is to make a change to an
existing reservation is . . Calculate the probability that a randomly selected call is either from abroad or is
to make a change to an existing reservation.
( )= ( )+ ( ) ( )
= . + . .
= .

b. Suppose now that you are not given the information in part (a), but you are told that the events “the call is
from abroad” and “the call is to make a change to an existing reservation” are independent. What is the
probability that a randomly selected call is either from abroad or is to make a change to an existing
reservation?
( )= ( ) ( )
=( . )( . )
= .

So,
( )= ( )+ ( ) ( )
= . + . .
= . .

2. A golfer will play two holes of a course. Suppose that on each hole the player will score , , , , or , with these
five scores being equally likely. Find the probability, and explain how the answer was determined that the player’s
total score for the two holes will be
a. .

The only way to have a total score of is if the player scores on each hole, which is ( ) ( ). Each of
the scores is equally likely, so ( ) = = . .

( = )= ( ) ( ) = ( . )( . ) = .

b. .

There are three ways to have a total score of . The player could score on the first hole and on the
second. The player could score on the first hole and on the second. Finally, the player could score on the
first hole and on the second. Again, all of the scores are equally likely, so ( ) = ( ) = ( ) = = . .

( = )= ( , )+ ( , )+ ( , )
= ( . )( . ) + ( . )( . ) + ( . )( . )
= . + . + .
= .

Lesson 7: Probability Rules 99

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Problem Set Sample Solutions

1. Of the works of art at a large gallery, % are paintings, and % are for sale. When a work of art is selected at
random, let the event that it is a painting be and the event that it is for sale be .
a. What are the values of ( ) and ( )?
( )= .

( )= .

b. Suppose you are told that ( )= . . Find ( ).

( )= ( )+ ( ) ( )= . + . . = .

c. Suppose now that you are not given the information in part (b), but you are told that the events and are
independent. Find ( ).

( )= ( ) ( )=( . )( . )= .
So, ( )= ( )+ ( ) ( )= . + . . = . .

2. A traveler estimates that, for an upcoming trip, the probability of catching malaria is . , the probability of
catching typhoid is . , and the probability of catching neither of the two diseases is . .
a. Draw a Venn diagram to represent this information.

b. Calculate the probability of catching both of the diseases.

( )= . = .
By the addition rule:
( ) = ( )+ ( ) ( )
. = . + . ( )
. = . ( )
( )= .

c. Are the events “catches malaria” and “catches typhoid” independent? Explain your answer.

( )= .
( ) ( )=( . )( . )= .
Since these quantities are different, the two events are not independent.

Lesson 7: Probability Rules 100

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3. A deck of cards consists of the following:

black cards showing squares, numbered –
black cards showing circles, numbered –
red cards showing X’s, numbered –
red cards showing diamonds, numbered –

A card will be selected at random from the deck.

a. i. Are the events “the card shows a square” and “the card is red” disjoint? Explain.

Yes. There is no red card that shows a square.

ii. Calculate the probability that the card will show a square or will be red.
( )= ( )+ ( )

= + = =

b. i. Are the events “the card shows a ” and “the card is red” disjoint? Explain.

No. There are red fives in the deck.

ii. Calculate the probability that the card will show a or will be red.
( )= ( )+ ( ) ( )

= + = =

4. The diagram below shows a spinner. When the pointer is spun, it is equally likely to stop on , , or . The pointer
will be spun three times. Expressing your answers as fractions in lowest terms, find the probability, and explain how
the answer was determined that the total of the values from all thee spins is
a. .

The only way to get a total of is to spin a , times. Since

the probability of spinning a is ,

( )= ( , , )= = .

b. .

There are ways to get a total of . Since the probability of spinning a , , and are all equally likely :

( )= ( , , )+ ( , , )+ ( , , )

= + +

= + +

Lesson 7: Probability Rules 101

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c. .

There are ways to get a total of . Since the probability of spinning a , , and are all equally likely :

( )= ( , , )+ ( , , )+ ( , , )+ ( , , )+ ( , , )+ ( , , )

5. A number cube has faces numbered through , and a coin has two sides—heads and tails. The number cube will
be rolled once, and the coin will be flipped once. Find the probabilities of the following events. (Express your
answers as fractions in lowest terms.)
a. The number cube shows a .

b. The coin shows heads.

c. The number cube shows a , and the coin shows heads.

d. The number cube shows a , or the coin shows heads.

( )= ( )+ ( ) ( )

= + = + =

6. Kevin will soon be taking exams in math, physics, and French. He estimates the probabilities of his passing these
exams to be as follows:

Math: .

Physics: .

French: .

Kevin is willing to assume that the results of the three exams are independent of each other. Find the probability of
each event.

a. Kevin will pass all three exams.

( . )( . )( . ) = .

b. Kevin will pass math but fail the other two exams.

( . )( . )( . ) = .

Lesson 7: Probability Rules 102

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c. Kevin will pass exactly one of the three exams.

( )= ( , , )
+ ( , , )
+ ( , , )

= ( . )( . )( . ) + ( . )( . )( . ) + ( . )( . )( . )
= .

Lesson 7: Probability Rules 103

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Mathematics Curriculum
ALGEBRA II 4

Topic B
Modeling Data Distributions
S-ID.A.4

Focus Standard: S-ID.A.4 Use the mean and standard deviation of a data set to fit it to a normal distribution and
to estimate population percentages. Recognize that there are data sets for which such
a procedure is not appropriate. Use calculators, spreadsheets, and tables to estimate
areas under the normal curve.
Instructional Days: 4
Lesson 8: Distributions—Center, Shape, and Spread (P) 1
Lesson 9: Using a Curve to Model a Data Distribution (P)
Lessons 10–11: Normal Distributions (P,P)

This topic introduces students to the idea of using a smooth curve to model a data distribution, eventually
leading to using the normal distribution to model data distributions that are bell shaped and symmetric.
Many naturally occurring variables, such as arm span, weight, reaction times, and standardized test scores,
have distributions that are well described by a normal curve.

1
Lesson Structure Key: P-Problem Set Lesson, M-Modeling Cycle Lesson, E-Exploration Lesson, S-Socratic Lesson

Topic B: Modeling Data Distributions 104

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Students begin by reviewing their previous work with shape, center, and variability. Students use the mean
and standard deviation to describe center and variability for a data distribution that is approximately
symmetric. This provides a foundation for selecting an appropriate normal distribution to model a given data
distribution.
Students learn to draw a smooth curve that could be used to model a given data distribution. A smooth curve
is first used to model a relative frequency histogram, which shows that the area under the curve represents
the approximate proportion of data falling in a given interval. Properties of the normal distribution are
introduced by asking students to distinguish between reasonable and unreasonable data distributions for
using a normal distribution model. Students use tables and technology to calculate normal probabilities.
They work with graphing calculators, tables of normal curve areas, and spreadsheets to calculate probabilities
in the examples and exercises provided (S-ID.A.4).

Topic B: Modeling Data Distributions 105

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Lesson 8: Distributions—Center, Shape, and Spread

Student Outcomes
Students describe data distributions in terms of shape, center, and variability.
Students use the mean and standard deviation to describe center and variability for a data distribution that is
approximately symmetric.

Lesson Notes
In this lesson, students review key ideas developed in Grades 6 and 7 and Algebra I. In particular, this lesson revisits
distribution shapes (approximately symmetric, mound shaped, and skewed) and the use of the mean and standard
deviation to describe center and variability for distributions that are approximately symmetric. The steps to calculate
standard deviation are not included in the student edition since it is recommended that students use technology to
calculate standard deviation. If students are not familiar with standard deviation, the steps to calculate this value are
included under the notes for Example 1. The major emphasis should be on the interpretation of the mean and standard
deviation rather than on calculations.

Scaffolding:
Classwork
The word mean has multiple
Opening (5 minutes): Review of Distribution Shapes and Standard Deviation definitions (including from
different parts of speech).
Prior to beginning Example 1, students may need to review the interpretation of the mean
Although students have been
of a distribution. The mean is the “fair share” value. It also represents the balance point
exposed to the term mean in
of the distribution (the point where the sum of the deviations to the left of the mean is Grades 6 and 7 and Algebra I,
equal to the sum of the deviations to the right of the mean). The mean can be interpreted those new to the curriculum or
as an average or a typical value for a data distribution. English language learners may
Show students the following data on the amount of time (in minutes) spent studying for a struggle with its meaning.
math test for 10 students: Teachers should clarify the
term for these students.
34 38 48 41 38 61 29 46 45 40 Consider using visual displays
and repeated choral readings
For this data set, the mean is 42 minutes, and this would be interpreted as a typical to reinforce the mathematical
amount of time spent studying for this group of students. Also, consider showing the dot meaning of this word. A Frayer
plot of the data shown below, and point out that the data values are centered at 42 diagram may be used.
minutes.

In addition to discussing the definition of mean, it may be necessary to review the

definition of standard deviation.

Lesson 8: Distributions—Center, Shape, and Spread 106

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Remind students that the standard deviation is one measure of spread or variability in a data distribution. The standard
deviation describes variation in terms of deviation from the mean. The standard deviation can be interpreted as a
typical deviation from the mean. A small standard deviation indicates that the data points tend to be very close to the
mean, and a large standard deviation indicates that the data points are spread out over a large range of values.

2
The formula for the standard deviation of a sample is = , where is the sample mean.
1

The standard deviation, , of the study time data is approximately 8.77, which would be interpreted as a typical
difference from the mean number of minutes this group of students spent studying. Consider showing the following dot
plots, and ask students if they think that the standard deviation would be less than or greater than 8.77 for each of Data
Sets A, B, and C. (The standard deviation is less than 8.77 for Data Set B and greater for Data Sets A and C.)

To calculate the standard deviation,

1. Find the mean, .
2. Find the difference between each data point and the mean. These values are called deviations from the mean, and
a deviation is denoted by ( ).
3. Square each of the deviations.
4. Find the sum of the squared deviations.
5. Divide the sum of the squared deviations by 1.
6. Determine the square root.
To find the standard deviation of data from an entire population (as opposed to a sample), divide by instead of 1.
Review the different distribution shapes: symmetric and skewed. A distribution is approximately symmetric if the left
side and the right side of the distribution are roughly mirror images of each other (if students were to fold the
distribution in half, the two sides would be a close match). A distribution is skewed if it has a noticeably longer tail on
one side than the other. A distribution with a longer tail to the right is considered skewed to the right, whereas a
distribution with a longer tail on the left side is skewed to the left. Display the distributions shown in the Lesson
Summary, and discuss the shape of each distribution. Also, point out that a distribution that is approximately symmetric
with a single peak is often described as mound shaped.

Lesson 8: Distributions—Center, Shape, and Spread 107

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Example 1 (10 minutes): Center, Shape, and Spread

All of the histograms in this lesson are relative frequency histograms. Relative frequency histograms were introduced in
earlier grades. If necessary, remind students that the heights of the bars in a relative frequency histogram represent the
proportion of the observations within each interval and not the number of observations (the frequency) within the
interval. Prior to students beginning to work on Exercises 1 through 6, discuss the scales on the battery life histogram.
Address the following points using the histogram of battery life:
What is the width of each bar?
5 hours
What does the height of each bar represent?
The proportion of all batteries with a life in the interval corresponding to the bar. For example,
approximately 5% of the batteries lasted between 85 and 90 hours.

Example 1: Center, Shape, and Spread

Have you ever noticed how sometimes batteries seem to last a long time, and other times the batteries seem to last only
a short time?

The histogram below shows the distribution of battery life (hours) for a sample of batteries of the same brand. When
studying a distribution, it is important to think about the shape, center, and spread of the data.

Exercises 1–6 (10 minutes)

Have students work independently and confirm answers with a partner or in a small group. Discuss answers as needed.
Before beginning Exercise 7, review the interpretation of standard deviation. Have students describe how they made
MP.2 their estimates for the standard deviation in Exercises 3 and 6. This allows students to practice reasoning abstractly and
quantitatively.
In the next several exercises, students are asked to estimate and interpret the standard deviation. Standard deviation
can be challenging for students. Often in the process of focusing on how it is calculated, students lose sight of what it
indicates about the data distribution. The calculation of the standard deviation can be done using technology or by
following a precise sequence of steps; understanding what it indicates about the data should be the focus of the
exercises.

Lesson 8: Distributions—Center, Shape, and Spread 108

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The standard deviation is a measure of variability that is based on how far observations in a data set fall from the mean.
It can be interpreted as a typical or an average distance from the mean. Various rules and shortcuts are often used to
estimate a standard deviation, but for this lesson, keep the focus on understanding the standard deviation as a value
that describes a typical distance from the mean. Students should observe that a typical distance is one for which some
distances would be less than this value and some would be greater. When students estimate a standard deviation, ask
them whether that value is representative of the collection of distances. Is the estimate a reasonable value for the
average distance of observations from the mean? If the estimate is a value that is less than most of the distances, then it
is not a good estimate and is probably too small. If the estimate is a value that is greater than most of the distances,
then the estimate is probably too large. This understanding is developed in several of the following exercises:

Exercises 1–9

1. Would you describe the distribution of battery life as approximately symmetric or as skewed? Explain your answer.

The distribution is approximately symmetric. The right and left halves of the distribution are similar.

Indicate that because this distribution is approximately symmetric, the standard deviation is a reasonable way to
describe the variability of the data. From students’ previous work in Grade 6 and Algebra I, they should recall that for a
data distribution that is skewed rather than symmetric, the interquartile range (IQR) would be used to describe
variability.

2. Is the mean of the battery life distribution closer to , , or hours? Explain your answer.

The mean of the battery life distribution is closer to hours because the data appear to center around .

The next exercise provides an opportunity to discuss a typical distance from the mean. If students struggle with
understanding this question, for each estimate of the standard deviation, ask if it would be a good estimate of a typical
or an average distance of observations from the mean. If 5 was the standard deviation, how many of the distances
would be greater than and how many less than this value? Students should be able to see that most of the data values
are more than 5 units from the mean. If 25 was the standard deviation, how many of the distances would be greater
than and how many less than this value? Again, students should see that most of the data values are less than 25 units
away from the mean. The estimate of 10 is more reasonable as an estimate of the average distance from the mean and
is a better estimate of the standard deviation.

3. Consider , , or hours as an estimate of the standard deviation for the battery life distribution.
a. Consider hours as an estimate of the standard deviation. Is it a reasonable description of a typical distance
from the mean? Explain your answer.
Most of the distances from the mean are greater than hours. It is not a good estimate of the standard
deviation.

b. Consider hours as an estimate of the standard deviation. Is it a reasonable description of a typical

distance from the mean? Explain your answer.
It looks like is a reasonable estimate of a typical distance from the mean. It is a reasonable estimate of
the standard deviation.

c. Consider hours as an estimate of the standard deviation. Is it a reasonable description of a typical

distance from the mean? Explain your answer.
Nearly all of the data values are less than hours from the mean of . It is not a good estimate of the
standard deviation.

Lesson 8: Distributions—Center, Shape, and Spread 109

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The histogram below shows the distribution of the greatest drop (in feet) for major roller coasters in the United
States.

4. Would you describe this distribution of roller coaster maximum drop as approximately symmetric or as skewed?
Explain your answer.

The distribution is skewed to the right because there is a long tail on the right side.

5. Is the mean of the maximum drop distribution closer to , , or feet? Explain your answer.

The mean is closer to feet because is too small and is too large to be considered a typical value for this
data set.

In the same way that students estimated the standard deviation for battery life, the following exercise asks students to
select an estimate for the drop data. Here again, students should consider each estimate separately and determine
which one is the most typical of the distances from the estimated mean. As this is a skewed distribution, estimating a
typical distance from the mean is a challenge and requires careful thought.

6. Is the standard deviation of the maximum drop distribution closer to , , or hours? Explain your answer.

It seems that is about right for a typical distance from the mean. A deviation of would be too small, and
would be too large to be considered a typical distance from the mean for this data set. Most of the data values
differ from the estimated mean of by more than , which means that is not a reasonable estimate of the
standard deviation. Most of the data values differ from the estimated mean of by less than , which means
that is not a reasonable estimate of the standard deviation. This can be illustrated for students using the
following picture:

Lesson 8: Distributions—Center, Shape, and Spread 110

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Exercises 7–9 (10 minutes)

Encourage students to work in pairs on Exercises 7, 8, and 9. Then, discuss and confirm the answers.

7. Consider the following histograms: Histogram 1, Histogram 2, Histogram 3, and Histogram 4. Descriptions of four
distributions are also given. Match the description of a distribution with the appropriate histogram.

Histogram Distribution

Description of distributions:

Distribution Shape Mean Standard Deviation

Skewed to the right
Approximately symmetric, mound shaped
Approximately symmetric, mound shaped
Skewed to the right

Histograms:

Histogram 1 Histogram 2

Histogram 3 Histogram 4

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8. The histogram below shows the distribution of gasoline tax per gallon for the states and the District of Columbia
in 2010. Describe the shape, center, and spread of this distribution.

The distribution shape is skewed to the right. Answers for center and spread will vary, but the center is
approximately , and the standard deviation is approximately .

9. The histogram below shows the distribution of the number of automobile accidents per year for every ,
people in different occupations. Describe the shape, center, and spread of this distribution.

The shape of the distribution is approximately symmetric. Answers for center and spread will vary, but the center is
approximately , and the standard deviation is approximately .

Closing (5 minutes)
Ask students to summarize one of the histograms presented in class in terms of center, shape, and spread. Allow them
to select any one of the many examples presented in this lesson. Call on a representative group of students to present
descriptions of the histogram they selected.
Ask students to summarize the main concepts of the lesson in writing or with a neighbor. Use this as an opportunity to
informally assess comprehension of the lesson. The Lesson Summary below offers some important concepts that should
be included.

Lesson 8: Distributions—Center, Shape, and Spread 112

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Lesson Summary
Distributions are described by the shape (symmetric or skewed), the center, and the spread (variability) of the
distribution.

A distribution that is approximately symmetric can take different forms.

A distribution is described as mound shaped if it is approximately symmetric and has a single peak.

A distribution is skewed to the right or skewed to the left if one of its tails is longer than the other.

Skewed to the Right Skewed to the Left

The mean of a distribution is interpreted as a typical value and is the average of the data values that make up the
distribution.

The standard deviation is a value that describes a typical distance from the mean.

Exit Ticket (5 minutes)

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Name Date

Lesson 8: Distributions—Center, Shape, and Spread

Exit Ticket

A local utility company wanted to gather data on the age of air conditioners that people have in their homes. The
company took a random sample of 200 residents of a large city and asked if the residents had an air conditioner, and if
they did, how old it was. Below is the distribution in the reported ages of the air conditioners.

1. Would you describe this distribution of air conditioner ages as approximately symmetric or as skewed? Explain your
answer.

2. Is the mean of the age distribution closer to 15, 20, or 25 years? Explain your answer.

3. Is the standard deviation of the age distribution closer to 3, 6, or 9 years? Explain your answer.

Lesson 8: Distributions—Center, Shape, and Spread 114

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

A local utility company wanted to gather data on the age of air conditioners that people have in their homes. The
company took a random sample of residents of a large city and asked if the residents had an air conditioner, and if
they did, how old it was. Below is the distribution in the reported ages of the air conditioners.

1. Would you describe this distribution of air conditioner ages as approximately symmetric or as skewed? Explain your
answer.

The distribution is approximately symmetric. The left and right sides of the distribution are similar. This distribution
would also be described as mound shaped.

2. Is the mean of the age distribution closer to , , or years? Explain your answer.

The mean of the age distribution is closer to years because the distribution is centered at about .

3. Is the standard deviation of the age distribution closer to , , or years? Explain your answer.

A reasonable estimate of an average distance from the mean would be , so the standard deviation of the age
distribution would be about .

Problem Set Sample Solutions

1. For each of the following histograms, describe the shape, and give estimates of the mean and standard deviation of
the distributions:

a. Distribution of head circumferences (mm)

Shape: Approximately symmetric and mound

shaped

Mean: Approximately

Standard Deviation: Approximately

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b. Distribution of NBA arena seating capacity

Shape: Approximately symmetric

Center: Approximately ,

Spread: The standard deviation is

approximately ,

2. For the each of the following, match the description of each distribution with the appropriate histogram:

Histogram Distribution

Description of distributions:

Distribution Shape Mean Standard Deviation

Approximately symmetric, mound shaped
Approximately symmetric, mound shaped
Approximately symmetric, mound shaped
Approximately symmetric, mound shaped

Histogram 1 Histogram 2

Histogram 3 Histogram 4

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3. Following are the number of calories in a basic hamburger (one meat patty with no cheese) at various fast food
restaurants around the country:

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
, , , , , , , , , , , , ,
a. Draw a dot plot on the scale below.

Completed dot plot:

b. Describe the shape of the calorie distribution.

Approximately symmetric

c. Using technology, find the mean and standard deviation of the calorie data.

Mean:

Standard deviation:

d. Why do you think there is a lot of variability in the calorie data?

Answers will vary. Possible answers include that the size (number of ounces) of the hamburger patty may be
different, the type of bun may vary, and burgers may have different types and amounts of various
condiments.

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Lesson 9: Using a Curve to Model a Data Distribution

Student Outcomes
Students draw a smooth curve that could be used as a model for a given data distribution.
Students recognize when it is reasonable and when it is not reasonable to use a normal curve as a model for a
given data distribution.

Lesson Notes
This lesson introduces the concept of using a curve to model a data distribution. A smooth curve is used to model a
relative frequency histogram, and the idea of an area under the curve representing the approximate proportion of data
falling in a given interval is introduced. When data are approximated with a smooth curve, meaningful information can
be learned about the distribution. The normal curve (a smooth curve that is bell shaped and symmetric) is introduced.
Examples of data distributions that could reasonably be modeled using a normal curve and data distributions that cannot
reasonably be modeled by a normal curve are both used in the lesson. In Lessons 10 and 11, students calculate the area
under a normal curve and interpret the associated probabilities in context.

Classwork
Example 1 (5 minutes): Heights of Dinosaurs and the Normal Curve
All of the histograms in this lesson are relative frequency histograms. Consider reviewing
the meaning of relative frequency prior to having students work on the first exercises. Scaffolding:
Relative frequency histograms were introduced in Grade 6 and Algebra I. If necessary, For students working below
discuss how the height of each bar of the histogram is interpreted as the proportion of the grade level, consider using
data values that fall in the corresponding interval rather than the number of the data Exercises 1–7 as an opportunity
values (the frequency) in the interval. The relative frequency can be expressed as either a for teacher modeling or as an
decimal or a percent. activity for mixed-ability
groups.
In many of the exercises, students are asked to find an approximate percent of the data
that are within one standard deviation of the mean. Students should base their estimates Consider asking students
on the relative frequency that can be found by adding the heights of the bars within one working above grade level to
develop their own plans for
standard deviation of the mean. When the mark for the standard deviation falls within a
answering the question, “How
bar, have students round to the nearest edge of the bar.
tall was a compy dinosaur?”
In several exercises, students model with mathematics when they draw a smooth curve Allow them to perform
MP.4
that could be used to model the distribution. Suggest to students that if the distribution is calculations and create their
approximately normal, the curve they draw should be bell shaped and roughly passing own data displays to answer
through the midpoints of bars and the peak in the center of the distribution. When this question.
students draw the curve, allow some leeway on the appearance of the curve. This section
is the first introduction to modeling a distribution with a curve.

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To develop motivation for the activities, consider using a discussion question, such as the following:
Imagine you are a scientist studying dinosaurs that lived millions of years ago. What are some questions you
might try to answer about these dinosaurs?
Expect multiple responses such as how much they weighed, average life span, how fast they were, etc.
In this example, the question to be answered is “How tall was a compy dinosaur?” Display the table of data showing the
heights of 660 compy dinosaurs. Ask students what each column represents, and emphasize the meaning of relative
frequency.

Example 1: Heights of Dinosaurs and the Normal Curve

A paleontologist studies prehistoric life and sometimes

works with dinosaur fossils. The table below shows the
distribution of heights (rounded to the nearest inch) of
procompsognathids, otherwise known as compys.

The heights were determined by studying the fossil remains of the compys.

Height (cm) Number of Compys Relative Frequency

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Total .

Exercises 1–8 (15 minutes)

Let students work independently on Exercises 1–8. Then, discuss answers as a class. Some students may have a slightly
different answer for the percent within one standard deviation. Since students are approximating an answer, results will
vary. Ask students to explain how they arrived at their answers (percent). In addition, ask students to share how they
drew the smooth curve for Exercise 6.

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Exercises 1–8

The following is a relative frequency histogram of the compy heights:

1. What does the relative frequency of . mean for the height of ?

. % of the compys were tall.

2. What is the width of each bar? What does the height of the bar represent?

Each bar has a width of . The height of the bar is the relative frequency for the corresponding compy height.

3. What is the area of the bar that represents the relative frequency for compys with a height of ?

The area of the bar is equal to the relative frequency of . .

4. The mean of the distribution of compy heights is . , and the standard deviation is . . Interpret the
mean and standard deviation in this context.

The mean of . is the average height of the compys in the sample. It can be interpreted as a typical compy
height.

The standard deviation of . is the typical distance that a compy height is from the mean height.

5. Mark the mean on the graph, and mark one deviation above and below the mean.
a. Approximately what percent of the values in this data set are within one standard deviation of the mean
(i.e., between . . = . and . + . = . )?

. + . + . + . + . + . = . = . %

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b. Approximately what percent of the values in this data set are within two standard deviations of the mean?

Between and , about %

6. Draw a smooth curve that comes reasonably close to passing through the midpoints of the tops of the bars in the
histogram. Describe the shape of the distribution.

The curve is bell shaped and approximately symmetric and mound shaped.

7. Shade the area of the histogram that represents the proportion of heights that are within one standard deviation of
the mean.

8. Based on our analysis, how would you answer the question, “How tall was a compy?”

Answers will vary. It is likely that students will say the height was between and .

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Example 2 (5 minutes): Gas Mileage and the Normal Distribution

Read through the example as a class.

Example 2: Gas Mileage and the Normal Distribution

A normal curve is a smooth curve that is symmetric and bell shaped. Data distributions that are mound shaped are often
modeled using a normal curve, and we say that such a distribution is approximately normal. One example of a
distribution that is approximately normal is the distribution of compy heights from Example 1. Distributions that are
approximately normal occur in many different settings. For example, a salesman kept track of the gas mileage for his car
over a -week span.

The mileages (miles per gallon rounded to the nearest whole number) were

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

Exercise 9 (10 minutes)

MP.5 Students are asked to find the mean and standard deviation using technology. Ask students to indicate how technology
helps them make sense of the data. If using a graphing calculator similar to the TI-84, the mileages are entered into L1
and the frequency into L2. To find the mean and standard deviation, select 1-Var Stats and type L1, L2. After the
1-Var Stats entry, select Enter. Consult an appropriate manual or similar resource if using a different type of calculator
or if using a statistical software package that is different from the program described above.
Remind students that when they construct the histogram, they should center the mileage in the middle of each bar.
Let students work with a partner or in a small group based on available access to technology.

Exercise 9

9. Consider the following:

a. Use technology to find the mean and standard deviation of the mileage data. How did you use technology to
assist you?

Mean = .
Standard deviation = .

The graphing calculator does several tedious calculations for me. I entered the data into lists and was able to
indicate what calculations I wanted done by writing an expression using lists. I did not have to set up the
organization to find the standard deviation and perform the rather messy calculations.

b. Calculate the relative frequency of each of the mileage values. For example, the mileage of has a
frequency of . To find the relative frequency, divide by , the total number of mileages recorded.
Complete the following table:

Mileage (mpg) Frequency Relative Frequency

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Total .

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c. Construct a relative frequency histogram using the scale below.

Completed histogram:

Relative Frequency

Mileage (mpg)

d. Describe the shape of the mileage distribution. Draw a smooth curve that comes reasonably close to passing
through the midpoints of the tops of the bars in the histogram. Is this approximately a normal curve?

The shape is approximately normal. See the graph in part (e).

e. Mark the mean on the histogram. Mark one standard deviation to the left and right of the mean. Shade the
area of the histogram that represents the proportion of mileages that are within one standard deviation of
the mean. Find the proportion of the data within one standard deviation of the mean.

One standard deviation to the left (or below) the mean: . . = .

One standard deviation to the right (or above) the mean: . + . = .

The proportion of the data within one standard deviation of the mean is approximately . (which is the
sum of . + . + . ).
Relative Frequency

Mileage (mpg)

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Closing (2 minutes)
Ask students to summarize the main ideas of the lesson with a neighbor or in writing. Use this as an opportunity to
informally assess comprehension of the lesson. The Lesson Summary below offers some important ideas that should be
included.
Is the mean of a distribution that is approximately normal located near where the curve is the highest?
Yes
Is the mean of a skewed distribution located near where the curve is the highest? Why does this happen?
No. In a skewed distribution, the mean will be pulled toward the values in the tail of the distribution.

Lesson Summary
A normal curve is symmetric and bell shaped. The mean of a normal distribution is located in the
center of the distribution. Areas under a normal curve can be used to estimate the proportion of the
data values that fall within a given interval.

When a distribution is skewed, it is not appropriate to model the data distribution with a normal curve.

Exit Ticket (8 minutes)

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Name Date

Lesson 9: Using a Curve to Model a Data Distribution

Exit Ticket

The histogram below shows the distribution of heights (to the nearest inch) of 1,000 young women.

1. What does the width of each bar represent? What does the height of each bar represent?

2. The mean of the distribution of women’s heights is 64.6 in., and the standard deviation is 2.75 in. Interpret the
mean and standard deviation in this context.

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3. Mark the mean on the graph, and mark one deviation above and below the mean. Approximately what proportion
of the values in this data set are within one standard deviation of the mean?

4. Draw a smooth curve that comes reasonably close to passing through the midpoints of the tops of the bars in the
histogram. Describe the shape of the distribution.

5. Shade the area of the histogram that represents the proportion of heights that are within one standard deviation of
the mean.

Lesson 9: Using a Curve to Model a Data Distribution 126

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

The histogram below shows the distribution of heights (to the nearest inch) of , young women.

1. What does the width of each bar represent? What does the height of each bar represent?

Each bar represents a -inch range of heights. For example, the bar above represents heights between .
and . inches. The height of each bar represents the proportion of the , women in that -inch height
range.

2. The mean of the distribution of women’s heights is . ., and the standard deviation is . . Interpret the
mean and standard deviation in this context.

The mean is the average height of the , women, and it can be interpreted as a typical height value.

The standard deviation is the typical number of inches that a woman’s height is from the mean.

3. Mark the mean on the graph, and mark one deviation above and below the mean. Approximately what proportion
of the values in this data set are within one standard deviation of the mean?

. + . + . + . + . + . = . .

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4. Draw a smooth curve that comes reasonably close to passing through the midpoints of the tops of the bars in the
histogram. Describe the shape of the distribution.

Approximately normal (bell shaped and approximately symmetric)

5. Shade the area of the histogram that represents the proportion of heights that are within one standard deviation of
the mean.

Lesson 9: Using a Curve to Model a Data Distribution 128

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Problem Set Sample Solutions

1. Periodically the U.S. Mint checks the weight of newly minted nickels. Below is a histogram of the weights (in grams)
of a random sample of new nickels.

a. The mean and standard deviation of the distribution of nickel weights are . grams and . gram,
respectively. Mark the mean on the histogram. Mark one standard deviation above the mean and one
standard deviation below the mean.

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b. Describe the shape of the distribution. Draw a smooth curve that comes reasonably close to passing through
the midpoints of the tops of the bars in the histogram. Is this approximately a normal curve?

The shape is approximately normal.

c. Shade the area of the histogram that represents the proportion of weights within one standard deviation of
the mean. Find the proportion of the data within one standard deviation of the mean.

. + . + . + . + . + . = .

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2. Below is a relative frequency histogram of the gross (in millions of dollars) for the all-time top-grossing American
movies (as of the end of 2012). Gross is the total amount of money made before subtracting out expenses, like
advertising costs and actors’ salaries.

a. Describe the shape of the distribution of all-time top-grossing movies. Would a normal curve be the best
curve to model this distribution? Explain your answer.

The shape is skewed to the right. A normal curve would not be the best curve to model the distribution.

b. Which of the following is a reasonable estimate for the mean of the distribution? Explain your choice.
i. million
ii. million
iii. million

(iii) million is a reasonable estimate since this is a skewed distribution, and the mean will be pulled
toward the outliers.

c. Which of the following is a reasonable estimate for the sample standard deviation? Explain your choice.
i. million
ii. million
iii. million

(ii) million is a reasonable estimate because million is too small, and million is too large to be
considered a typical deviation from the mean.

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3. Below is a histogram of the top speed of different types of animals.

a. Describe the shape of the top speed distribution.

Approximately normal

b. Estimate the mean and standard deviation of this distribution. Describe how you made your estimate.

Mean is approximately , and standard deviation is about . Answers will vary in terms of how
the estimate was made.

Note: Students could roughly estimate the mean by locating a balance point of the distribution. The standard
deviation could be estimated by a typical deviation from the mean that was developed in Lesson 8.

c. Draw a smooth curve that is approximately a normal curve. The actual mean and standard deviation of this
data set are . and . , respectively. Shade the area of the histogram that represents the
proportion of speeds that are within one standard deviation of the mean.

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Lesson 10: Normal Distributions

Student Outcomes
Students calculate -scores.
Students use technology and tables to estimate the area under a normal curve.
Students interpret probabilities in context.

Lesson Notes
In this lesson, students calculate -scores and use technology and tables to estimate the area under a normal curve.
Depending on technology resources available to students, teachers may need to have students work with a partner or in
small groups.

Classwork
Exercise 1 (3 minutes)
This first exercise is a review of what is meant by a normal distribution. Use this as an opportunity to informally assess
students’ understanding of different distribution types by having students attempt the exercises independently.

Exercise 1

Consider the following data distributions. In the previous lesson, you distinguished between distributions that were
approximately normal and those that were not. For each of the following distributions, indicate if it is approximately
normal, skewed, or neither, and explain your choice:

a.

This distribution is approximately normal. It is

approximately symmetric and mound shaped.

b.

This distribution is approximately normal. It is approximately symmetric and mound shaped.

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c.

This distribution is not symmetric; therefore, it is not

approximately normal. This distribution is skewed
to the right as it has most of the data values in the
beginning and then tapers off. It has a longer tail
on the right.

d.

This distribution is approximately normal. It is symmetric

and mound shaped.

e.

This distribution is not approximately normal. It is

symmetric but not mound shaped. This distribution,
however, is also not skewed. It does not have a longer tail
on one side. It would be described as approximately a
uniform distribution. Note that this distribution was
discussed in earlier grades. It is important to emphasize
that there are other types of data distributions and that not
all are either approximately normal or skewed.

A normal distribution is a distribution that has a particular symmetric mound shape, as shown below.

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Exercise 2 (5 minutes) Scaffolding:

Prior to having students tackle this introduction to -scores (or after they For students working below grade level,
have completed it), it might be helpful to familiarize them with the reason consider framing the question this way:
why -scores are important. Open with the following discussion: “Suppose that you took a math test and
Suppose that you took a math test and a Spanish test. The mean a Spanish test. The mean for both tests
score for both tests was 80. You got an 86 in math and a 90 in was 80; the standard deviation of the
Spanish. Did you necessarily do better in Spanish relative to your math scores was 4, and the standard
fellow students? deviation of the Spanish scores was 8.
You got an 86 in math and a 90 in
No. For example, suppose the standard deviation of the
MP.3 Spanish. On which test did you do
math scores was 4 and the standard deviation of the
better than most of your classmates?”
1
Spanish scores was 8. Then, my score of 86 in math is 1 Consider showing a visual
2
standard deviations above the mean, and my score in representation of sample data
1 distributions for each to aid
Spanish is only 1 standard deviations above the mean.
4 understanding.
Relative to the other students, I did better in math.
For students working above grade level,
In the above example, the -score for math is 1.5, and the -score for consider posing the question this way:
Spanish is 1.25. Negative -scores indicate values that are below the mean. “Suppose that you took a math test and
Ask students to state in their own words what a -score is. Essentially, look a Spanish test. The mean score for both
for an early understanding that a -score measures distance in units of the was 80. You got an 86 in math and a 90
standard deviation. For example, a -score of 1 represents an observation in Spanish. On which test did you do
that is at a distance of 1 standard deviation above the mean. better than most of your classmates?
Explain your reasoning.”
Exercise 2

When calculating probabilities associated with normal distributions, -scores are used. A -score for a particular value
measures the number of standard deviations
away from the mean. A positive -score corresponds to a value that is above the mean, and a negative -score
corresponds to a value that is below the mean. The letter is used to represent a variable that has a standard normal
distribution where the mean is and standard deviation is . This distribution was used to define a -score. A -score is
calculated by

= .

a. The prices of the printers in a store have a mean of $ and a standard deviation of $ . The printer that
you eventually choose costs $ .
i. What is the -score for the price of your printer?

= =

ii. How many standard deviations above the mean was the price of your printer?

The price of my printer was standard deviations above the mean price.

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b. Ashish’s height is inches. The mean height for boys at his school is . inches, and the standard deviation
of the boys’ heights is . inches.
i. What is the -score for Ashish’s height? (Round your answer to the nearest hundredth.)
.
= .
.

ii. What is the meaning of this value?

Ashish’s height is . standard deviations below the mean height for boys at his school.

c. Explain how a -score is useful in describing data.

A -score is useful in describing how far a particular point is from the mean.

Example 1 (10 minutes): Use of -Scores and a Graphing Calculator to Find Normal Probabilities
In this example, students are introduced to the process of calculating normal probabilities, and in this example and the
two exercises that follow, -scores are used along with a graphing calculator. (The use of tables of normal probabilities
is introduced later in this lesson, and the use of spreadsheets is introduced in the next lesson.) Encourage students to
always draw normal distribution curves and to show their work on the graph when working problems that involve a
normal distribution.
Work through Example 3 with the class showing students how to calculate the relevant -scores, and use a graphing
calculator* to find the probability of interest. Students new to the curriculum may need additional support with the
graphing calculator.

*Calculator note: The general form of this is Normalcdf([left z bound],[right z bound]). The Normalcdf function is
accessed using 2nd, DISTR. On selecting 2nd, DISTR, some students using the more recent TI-84 operating systems might
be presented with a menu asking for left bound, right bound, mean, and standard deviation. This can be avoided by
having these students do the following: Press 2nd, QUIT (to return to the home screen); press MODE; scroll down to the
NEXT screen; set STAT WIZARDS to OFF.

Example 1: Use of -Scores and a Graphing Calculator to Find Normal Probabilities

A swimmer named Amy specializes in the -meter backstroke. In competition, her mean time for the event is
. seconds, and the standard deviation of her times is . seconds. Assume that Amy’s times are approximately
normally distributed.

a. Estimate the probability that Amy’s time is between and seconds.

The first time is a little less than standard deviations from her mean time of . seconds. The second time
is nearly standard deviations above her mean time. As a result, the probability of a time between the two
values covers nearly standard deviations and would be rather large. I estimate . , or %.

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b. Using -scores and a graphing calculator and rounding your answers to the nearest thousandth, find the
probability that Amy’s time in her next race is between and seconds.

.
The -score for is = . , and the -score for is
.
.
= . .
.
The probability that Amy’s time is between and seconds is then found to
be . .

Note: If students are using TI-83 or TI-84 calculators, this result is found by
entering Normalcdf( . , . ).

c. Estimate the probability that Amy’s time is more than seconds.

Amy’s time of seconds is more than standard deviations from the mean of . seconds. There is a
small probability that her time will be greater than seconds. I estimate . , or %.

d. Using -scores and a graphing calculator and rounding your answers to the nearest thousandth, find the
probability that Amy’s time in her next race is more than seconds.
.
The -score for is = . .
.
The probability that Amy’s time is more than seconds is then
found to be . .

Note: This result is found by entering Normalcdf( . , ) or

the equivalent of this for other brands of calculators. The keystroke
for positive infinity on some calculators is 1EE99. The number
can be replaced by any large positive number. Strictly speaking, the
aim here is to find the area under the normal curve between
= . and positive infinity. However, it is impossible to enter
positive infinity into the calculator, so any large positive number
can be used in its place.

e. What is the probability that Amy’s time would be at least seconds?

Since Amy’s times have a continuous distribution, the probability of “more than seconds” and the
probability of “at least seconds” are the same. So, the answer is the same as part (d), . .
It is worth pointing out to students that this applies to any question about the normal distribution.

f. Using -scores and a graphing calculator and rounding your answers to the nearest thousandth, find the
probability that Amy’s time in her next race is less than seconds.

.
The -score for is = . .
.
The probability that Amy’s time is less than seconds is then found to
be . .

Note: This result is found by entering Normalcdf( , . ) or the

equivalent of this command for other brands of calculators. Here,
is being used in place of negative infinity; any large negative number can
be used in its place. The keystroke on some calculators for negative
infinity is –1EE99.

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Exercise 3 (8 minutes)
This exercise provides practice with the skills students have learned in Example 2. Again, encourage students to draw a
MP.4 normal distribution curve for each part of the exercise showing work on their graphs in order to answer questions about
the distribution. Let students work independently (if technology resources allow) and confirm answers with a neighbor.

Exercise 3

The distribution of lifetimes of a particular brand of car tires has a mean of , miles and a standard deviation of
, miles.

a. Assuming that the distribution of lifetimes is approximately normally distributed and rounding your answers
to the nearest thousandth, find the probability of each event.
i. A randomly selected tire lasts between , and , miles.

( )= .

ii. A randomly selected tire lasts less than , miles.

( )= .

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iii. A randomly selected tire lasts at least , miles.

( )= .

b. Explain the meaning of the probability that you found in part (a)(iii).

If a large number of tires of this brand were to be randomly selected, then you would expect about . % of
them to last more than , miles.

Exercise 4 (5 minutes)
Here, students have to understand the idea of the lifetime of a tire being “within 10,000 miles of the mean.” Some
discussion of this idea might be necessary. Ask students what they think the statement is indicating about the lifetime of
MP.3 a tire. As they share their interpretations, record their summaries. Encourage students to use pictures, possibly
involving a normal distribution, in their explanations. In this exercise, students can practice constructing arguments and
critiquing the reasoning of others based on their understanding of a normal distribution.

Exercise 4

Think again about the brand of tires described in Exercise 3. What is the probability that the lifetime of a randomly
selected tire is within , miles of the mean lifetime for tires of this brand?

( )= .

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Example 2 (7 minutes): Using Table of Standard Normal Curve Areas

The last part of this lesson is devoted to the process of using tables of normal probabilities in place of the Normalcdf (or
equivalent) function on the calculator. Completion of this example enables students who do not have access to a
graphing calculator at home to complete the Problem Set. (However, if time is short, then this example could be
reserved for Lesson 11, in which case Problem Set Problem 4 should be omitted from the assignment, and Lesson 11
should begin with this example.) Work through this example as a class showing students how to use the table to
estimate the area under a normal curve.

Example 2: Using Table of Standard Normal Curve Areas

The standard normal distribution is the normal distribution with a mean of and a standard deviation of . The diagrams
below show standard normal distribution curves. Use a table of standard normal curve areas to determine the shaded
areas.

a.

The provided table of normal areas gives the area to the left
of the selected -score. So, here, you find . in the column
on the very left of the table, and then move horizontally to
the column labeled . . The table gives the required area
(probability) to be . .

b.

In the left-hand column of the table, find . , and move

horizontally to the column labeled . . The table gives a
probability of . . Note that the table always supplies
the area to the left of the chosen -score. Also, note that
the total area under any normal curve is . (This is the case
for any probability distribution curve.) So, the required
area, which is the area to the right of . , is
. = . .

c.

The approach here is to find the area to the left of =

and to subtract the area to the left of = . The table
gives the area to the left of = . to be . and the
area to the left of = . to be . . So, the
required area is . . = . .

Lesson 10: Normal Distributions 140

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Closing (2 minutes)
Remind students to be aware of order when calculating -scores. Refer back to Exercise 2.
The prices of printers in a store have a mean of $240 and a standard deviation of $50. The printer that you
eventually choose costs $340. What is wrong with the following -score? How do you know?
240 340 100
= = = 2
50 50
The -score is negative, when it should be positive. The printer I chose is greater than the mean, which
should result in a positive -score.
Have students interpret a probability in their own words. For example, refer back to Example 1.
A swimmer named Amy specializes in the 50-meter backstroke. You found that the probability that Amy’s
time is between 37 and 44 seconds is 0.849. How would you interpret this?
Approximately 84.9% of Amy’s finish times are between 37 and 44 seconds.
Ask students to summarize the main ideas of the lesson in writing or with a neighbor. Use this as an opportunity to
informally assess comprehension of the lesson. The Lesson Summary below offers some important ideas that should be
included.

Lesson Summary
A normal distribution is a continuous distribution that has the particular symmetric mound-shaped curve that is
shown at the beginning of the lesson.

Probabilities associated with normal distributions are determined using -scores and can be found using a graphing
calculator or tables of standard normal curve areas.

Exit Ticket (5 minutes)

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Name Date

Lesson 10: Normal Distributions

Exit Ticket

The weights of cars passing over a bridge have a mean of 3,550 pounds and standard deviation of 870 pounds. Assume
that the weights of the cars passing over the bridge are normally distributed. Determine the probability of each
instance, and explain how you found each answer.
a. The weight of a randomly selected car is more than 4,000 pounds.

b. The weight of a randomly selected car is less than 3,000 pounds.

c. The weight of a randomly selected car is between 2,800 and 4,500 pounds.

Lesson 10: Normal Distributions 142

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

Student answers may vary if using a table versus a graphing calculator to determine the area under the normal curve.

The weights of cars passing over a bridge have a mean of , pounds and standard deviation of pounds. Assume
that the weights of the cars passing over the bridge are normally distributed. Determine the probability of each instance,
and explain how you found each answer.

a. The weight of a randomly selected car is more than

, pounds.

( )= .
I calculated a -score and then used my graphing
calculator to find the area under the normal curve
(above = . ).

b. The weight of a randomly selected car is less

than , pounds.

( )= .
I calculated a -score and then used my
graphing calculator to find the area under the
normal curve (below = . ).

c. The weight of a randomly selected car is between

, and , pounds.

( )= .
I calculated two -scores and then used my graphing
calculator to find the area under the normal curve
(between = . and = . ).

Lesson 10: Normal Distributions 143

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Problem Set Sample Solutions

Which of the following histograms show distributions that are approximately normal?
a.

No, this distribution is not approximately

normal.

b.

No, this distribution is not approximately

normal.

c.

Yes, this distribution is approximately normal.

Lesson 10: Normal Distributions 144

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Suppose that a particular medical procedure has a cost that is approximately normally distributed with a mean of
$ , and a standard deviation of $ , . For a randomly selected patient, find the probabilities of the
following events. (Round your answers to the nearest thousandth.)
a. The procedure costs between $ , and $ , .

( )= .

b. The procedure costs less than $ , .

( )= .

c. The procedure costs more than $ , .

( )= .

Lesson 10: Normal Distributions 145

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Consider the medical procedure described in the previous question, and suppose a patient is charged $ , for
the procedure. The patient is reported as saying, “I’ve been charged an outrageous amount!” How justified is this
comment? Use probability to support your answer.

The probability that the procedure will cost at least $ ,

is . . So, this charge places the patient’s bill in the top
% of bills for this procedure. While the procedure turned
out to be very expensive for this patient, use of the word
“outrageous” could be considered a little extreme.

Think again about the medical procedure described in Problem 2.

a. Rounding your answers to the nearest thousandth, find the probability of each instance for a randomly
selected patient.
i. The cost of the procedure is within two standard deviations of the mean cost.

The cost two standard deviations above the mean gives = , and the price two standard deviations
below the mean gives = .

The probability that the price is within standard deviations

of the mean is . .

ii. The cost of the procedure is more than one standard deviation from the mean cost.

The cost one standard deviation above the mean gives = , and the cost one standard deviation
below the mean gives = .

( . )= .

The probability that the cost of the procedure is

more than one standard deviation from the
mean is . .

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b. If the mean or the standard deviation were to be changed, would your answers to part (a) be affected?
Explain.

No. For example, looking at part (a)(i), the value two standard deviations above the mean will always have a
-score of , and the value two standard deviations below the mean will always have a -score of . So, the
answer will always be the same whatever the mean and the standard deviation. Similarly, in part (a)(ii), the
-scores will always be and ; therefore, the answer will always be the same, regardless of the mean and
the standard deviation.

Use a table of standard normal curve areas to find the following:

a. The area to the left of = .

b. The area to the right of = .

. = .

c. The area to the left of = .

d. The area to the right of = .

. = .

e. The area between = . and = .

. . = .

f. Choose a response from parts (a) through (f), and explain how you determined your answer.

Answers will vary.

Sample response: To find the area to the right of = . in part (d), I used the table to find the
cumulative area up to (which is to the left of) = . . Then, to find the area to the right of the -score, I
had to subtract the cumulative area from .

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Standard Normal Curve Areas

Z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
–3.8 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001
–3.7 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001
–3.6 0.0002 0.0002 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001
–3.5 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002
–3.4 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0002
–3.3 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0003
–3.2 0.0007 0.0007 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005
–3.1 0.0010 0.0009 0.0009 0.0009 0.0008 0.0008 0.0008 0.0008 0.0007 0.0007
–3.0 0.0013 0.0013 0.0013 0.0012 0.0012 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0010 0.0010
–2.9 0.0019 0.0018 0.0018 0.0017 0.0016 0.0016 0.0015 0.0015 0.0014 0.0014
–2.8 0.0026 0.0025 0.0024 0.0023 0.0023 0.0022 0.0021 0.0021 0.0020 0.0019
–2.7 0.0035 0.0034 0.0033 0.0032 0.0031 0.0030 0.0029 0.0028 0.0027 0.0026
–2.6 0.0047 0.0045 0.0044 0.0043 0.0041 0.0040 0.0039 0.0038 0.0037 0.0036
–2.5 0.0062 0.0060 0.0059 0.0057 0.0055 0.0054 0.0052 0.0051 0.0049 0.0048
–2.4 0.0082 0.0080 0.0078 0.0075 0.0073 0.0071 0.0069 0.0068 0.0066 0.0064
–2.3 0.0107 0.0104 0.0102 0.0099 0.0096 0.0094 0.0091 0.0089 0.0087 0.0084
–2.2 0.0139 0.0136 0.0132 0.0129 0.0125 0.0122 0.0119 0.0116 0.0113 0.0110
–2.1 0.0179 0.0174 0.0160 0.0166 0.0162 0.0158 0.0154 0.0150 0.0146 0.0143
–2.0 0.0228 0.0222 0.0217 0.0212 0.0207 0.0202 0.0197 0.0192 0.0188 0.0183
–1.9 0.0287 0.0281 0.0274 0.0268 0.0262 0.0256 0.0250 0.0244 0.0239 0.0233
–1.8 0.0359 0.0351 0.0344 0.0336 0.0329 0.0322 0.0314 0.0307 0.0301 0.0294
–1.7 0.0446 0.0436 0.0427 0.0418 0.0409 0.0401 0.0392 0.0384 0.0375 0.0367
–1.6 0.0548 0.0537 0.0526 0.0516 0.0505 0.0495 0.0485 0.0475 0.0465 0.0455
–1.5 0.0668 0.0655 0.0643 0.0630 0.0618 0.0606 0.0594 0.0582 0.0571 0.0599
–1.4 0.0808 0.0793 0.0778 0.0764 0.0749 0.0735 0.0721 0.0708 0.0694 0.0681
–1.3 0.0968 0.0951 0.0934 0.0918 0.0901 0.0885 0.0869 0.0853 0.0838 0.0823
–1.2 0.1151 0.1131 0.1112 0.1093 0.1075 0.1056 0.1038 0.1020 0.1003 0.0985
–1.1 0.1357 0.1335 0.1314 0.1292 0.1271 0.1251 0.1230 0.1210 0.1190 0.1170
–1.0 0.1587 0.1562 0.1539 0.1515 0.1492 0.1469 0.1446 0.1423 0.1401 0.1379
–0.9 0.1841 0.1814 0.1788 0.1762 0.1736 0.1711 0.1685 0.1660 0.1635 0.1611
–0.8 0.2119 0.2090 0.2061 0.2033 0.2005 0.1977 0.1949 0.1922 0.1894 0.1867
–0.7 0.2420 0.2389 0.2358 0.2327 0.2296 0.2266 0.2236 0.2206 0.2177 0.2148
–0.6 0.2743 0.2709 0.2676 0.2643 0.2611 0.2578 0.2546 0.2514 0.2483 0.2451
–0.5 0.3085 0.3050 0.3015 0.2981 0.2946 0.2912 0.2877 0.2843 0.2810 0.2776
–0.4 0.3446 0.3409 0.3372 0.3336 0.3300 0.3264 0.3228 0.3192 0.3156 0.3121
–0.3 0.3821 0.3783 0.3745 0.3707 0.3669 0.3632 0.3594 0.3557 0.3520 0.3483
–0.2 0.4207 0.4168 0.4129 0.4090 0.4052 0.4013 0.3974 0.3936 0.3897 0.3859
–0.1 0.4602 0.4562 0.4522 0.4483 0.4443 0.4404 0.4364 0.4325 0.4286 0.4247
–0.0 0.5000 0.4960 0.4920 0.4880 0.4840 0.4801 0.4761 0.4721 0.4681 0.4641

Lesson 10: Normal Distributions 148

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z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
0.0 0.5000 0.5040 0.5080 0.5120 0.5160 0.5199 0.5239 0.5279 0.5319 0.5359
0.1 0.5398 0.5438 0.5478 0.5517 0.5557 0.5596 0.5636 0.5675 0.5714 0.5753
0.2 0.5793 0.5832 0.5871 0.5910 0.5948 0.5987 0.6026 0.6064 0.6103 0.6141
0.3 0.6179 0.6217 0.6255 0.6293 0.6331 0.6368 0.6406 0.6443 0.6480 0.6517
0.4 0.6554 0.6591 0.6628 0.6664 0.6700 0.6736 0.6772 0.6808 0.6844 0.6879
0.5 0.6915 0.6950 0.6985 0.7019 0.7054 0.7088 0.7123 0.7157 0.7190 0.7224
0.6 0.7257 0.7291 0.7324 0.7357 0.7389 0.7422 0.7454 0.7486 0.7517 0.7549
0.7 0.7580 0.7611 0.7642 0.7673 0.7704 0.7734 0.7764 0.7794 0.7823 0.7852
0.8 0.7881 0.7910 0.7939 0.7967 0.7995 0.8023 0.8051 0.8078 0.8106 0.8133
0.9 0.8159 0.8186 0.8212 0.8238 0.8264 0.8289 0.8315 0.8340 0.8365 0.8389
1.0 0.8413 0.8438 0.8461 0.8485 0.8508 0.8531 0.8554 0.8577 0.8599 0.8621
1.1 0.8643 0.8665 0.8686 0.8708 0.8729 0.8749 0.8770 0.8790 0.8810 0.8830
1.2 0.8849 0.8869 0.8888 0.8907 0.8925 0.8944 0.8962 0.8980 0.8997 0.9015
1.3 0.9032 0.9049 0.9066 0.9082 0.9099 0.9115 0.9131 0.9147 0.9162 0.9177
1.4 0.9192 0.9207 0.9222 0.9236 0.9251 0.9265 0.9279 0.9292 0.9306 0.9319
1.5 0.9332 0.9345 0.9357 0.9370 0.9382 0.9394 0.9406 0.9418 0.9429 0.9441
1.6 0.9452 0.9463 0.9474 0.9484 0.9495 0.9505 0.9515 0.9525 0.9535 0.9545
1.7 0.9554 0.9564 0.9573 0.9582 0.9591 0.9599 0.9608 0.9616 0.9625 0.9633
1.8 0.9641 0.9649 0.9656 0.9664 0.9671 0.9678 0.9686 0.9693 0.9699 0.9706
1.9 0.9713 0.9719 0.9726 0.9732 0.9738 0.9744 0.9750 0.9756 0.9761 0.9767
2.0 0.9772 0.9778 0.9783 0.9788 0.9793 0.9798 0.9803 0.9808 0.9812 0.9817
2.1 0.9821 0.9826 0.9830 0.9834 0.9838 0.9842 0.9846 0.9850 0.9854 0.9857
2.2 0.9861 0.9864 0.9868 0.9871 0.9875 0.9878 0.9881 0.9884 0.9887 0.9890
2.3 0.9893 0.9896 0.9898 0.9901 0.9904 0.9906 0.9909 0.9911 0.9913 0.9916
2.4 0.9918 0.9920 0.9922 0.9925 0.9927 0.9929 0.9931 0.9932 0.9934 0.9936
2.5 0.9938 0.9940 0.9941 0.9943 0.9945 0.9946 0.9948 0.9949 0.9951 0.9952
2.6 0.9953 0.9955 0.9956 0.9957 0.9959 0.9960 0.9961 0.9962 0.9963 0.9964
2.7 0.9965 0.9966 0.9967 0.9968 0.9969 0.9970 0.9971 0.9972 0.9973 0.9974
2.8 0.9974 0.9975 0.9976 0.9977 0.9977 0.9978 0.9979 0.9979 0.9980 0.9981
2.9 0.9981 0.9982 0.9982 0.9983 0.9984 0.9984 0.9985 0.9985 0.9986 0.9986
3.0 0.9987 0.9987 0.9987 0.9988 0.9988 0.9989 0.9989 0.9989 0.9990 0.9990
3.1 0.9990 0.9991 0.9991 0.9991 0.9992 0.9992 0.9992 0.9992 0.9993 0.9993
3.2 0.9993 0.9993 0.9994 0.9994 0.9994 0.9994 0.9994 0.9995 0.9995 0.9995
3.3 0.9995 0.9995 0.9995 0.9996 0.9996 0.9996 0.9996 0.9996 0.9996 0.9997
3.4 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9998
3.5 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998
3.6 0.9998 0.9998 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999
3.7 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999
3.8 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999

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Lesson 11: Normal Distributions

Student Outcomes
Students use tables and technology to estimate the area under a normal curve.
Students interpret probabilities in context.
When appropriate, students select an appropriate normal distribution to serve as a model for a given data
distribution.

Lesson Notes
In Lesson 10, students first learn how to calculate -scores and are then shown how to use -scores and a graphing
calculator to find normal probabilities. Students are then introduced to the process of calculating normal probabilities
using tables of standard normal curve areas. In this lesson, students calculate normal probabilities using tables and
spreadsheets. They also learn how to use a graphing calculator to find normal probabilities directly (without using
-scores) and are introduced to the idea of fitting a normal curve to a data distribution that seems to be approximately
normal.

Classwork
Example 1 (7 minutes): Calculation of Normal Probabilities Using -Scores and Tables of Standard Normal
Areas
In this example, two of the techniques learned in Lesson 10—evaluation of -scores and use of tables of standard normal
areas—are combined to find normal probabilities. Consider asking students to work independently or with a partner,
and use this as an opportunity to informally assess student progress.

Example 1: Calculation of Normal Probabilities Using -Scores and Tables of Standard Normal Areas

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its Official Food Plans (www.cnpp.usda.gov), states that the average cost of
food for a 14- to 18-year-old male (on the Moderate-Cost Plan) is $ . per month. Assume that the monthly food
cost for a 14- to 18-year-old male is approximately normally distributed with a mean of $ . and a standard
deviation of $ . .

a. Use a table of standard normal curve areas to find the probability that the monthly food cost for a randomly
selected 14- to 18-year-old male is
i. Less than $ .

( )= .

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ii. More than $ .

( )
= .
= .

iii. More than $ .

( )
= .
= .

iv. Between $ and $ .

( )
= . .
= .

b. Explain the meaning of the probability that you found in part (a)(iv).

If a very large number of 14- to 18-year-old males were to be selected at random, then you would expect
about . % of them to have monthly food costs between $ and $ .

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Exercise 1 (5 minutes)
This exercise provides practice with the approach demonstrated in Example 1. Continue to encourage students to
MP.4
include a normal distribution curve with work shown for each part of the exercise.

Exercise 1

The USDA document described in Example 1 also states that the average cost of food for a 14- to 18-year-old female
(again, on the Moderate-Cost Plan) is $ . per month. Assume that the monthly food cost for a 14- to 18-year-old
female is approximately normally distributed with a mean of $ . and a standard deviation of $ . .

a. Use a table of standard normal curve areas to find the probability that the monthly food cost for a randomly
selected 14- to 18-year-old female is
i. Less than $ .

( )= .

ii. Less than $ .

( )= .

iii. More than $ .

( )= .

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iv. Between $ and $ .

( )= . .
= .

b. Explain the meaning of the probability that you found in part (a)(iv).

If a very large number of 14- to 18-year-old females were to be selected at random, then you would expect
about . % of them to have monthly food costs between $ and $ .

Example 2 (5 minutes): Use of a Graphing Calculator to Find Normal Probabilities Directly

In this example, students learn how to calculate normal probabilities using a graphing calculator without using -scores.
Use this example to show the class how to do this using a graphing calculator*.
*Calculator note: The general form of this is Normalcdf([left bound],[right bound],[mean],[standard deviation]). The
Normalcdf function is accessed using 2nd, DISTR.

Example 2: Use of a Graphing Calculator to Find Normal Probabilities Directly

Return to the information given in Example 1. Using a graphing calculator, and without using -scores, find the
probability (rounded to the nearest thousandth) that the monthly food cost for a randomly selected - to -year-old
male is

a. Between $ and $ .
( $ $ )= .

If students are using TI-83 or TI-84 calculators, this result is found by entering
Normalcdf( , , . , . ).

b. At least $ .
( )= .

This result is found by entering Normalcdf( , , . , . ) or the equivalent for other brands of
calculators. Any large positive number or 1EE99 can be used in place of , as long as the number is at least
four standard deviations above the mean.

c. At most $ .
( )= .

This result is found by entering Normalcdf( , , . , . ) or the equivalent for other brands of
calculators. Any large negative number or –1EE99 can be used in place of , as long as the number is at
least four standard deviations below the mean.

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Exercise 2 (5 minutes)
Here, students have an opportunity to practice using a graphing calculator to find normal probabilities directly and
MP.5
reflect on the use of technology compared to the use of tables of normal curve areas.

Exercise 2

Return to the information given in Exercise 1.

a. In Exercise 1, you calculated the probability that the monthly food cost for a randomly selected 14- to 18-year-
old female is between $ and $ . Would the probability that the monthly food cost for a randomly
selected 14- to 18-year-old female is between $ and $ be greater than or smaller than the probability
for between $ and $ ? Explain your thinking.

The probability would be greater between $ and $ . If you look at a sketch of a normal curve with
mean $ . and standard deviation $ . , there is more area under the curve for the wider interval of
$ to $ .

b. Do you think that the probability that the monthly food cost for a randomly selected - to -year-old
female is between $ and $ is closer to . , . , or . ? Explain your thinking.

Closer to . . Based on my answer to part (a), I expect the probability to be greater than the probability for
between $ and $ , which was . , but I do not think it would be as great as . .

c. Using a graphing calculator, and without using -scores, find the probability (rounded to the nearest
thousandth) that the monthly food cost for a randomly selected 14- to 18-year-old female is between $
and $ . Is this probability consistent with your answer to part (b)?
( )= .
This probability is close to . , which was my answer in part (b).

d. How does the probability you calculated in part (c) compare to the probability that would have been obtained
using the table of normal curve areas?
. .
The -score for $ is = = .
, and the -score for $ is = = . .
. .
Using the table of normal curve areas, ( )= . . = . . This is
very close to the answer that I got using the graphing calculator.

e. What is one advantage to using a graphing calculator to calculate this probability?

It is a lot faster to use the graphing calculator because I did not have to calculate -scores in order to get the
probability.

f. In Exercise 1, you calculated the probability that the monthly food cost for a randomly selected 14- to 18-year-
old female is at most $ . Would the probability that the monthly food cost for a randomly selected 14- to
18-year-old female is at most $ be greater than or less than the probability for at most $ ? Explain
your thinking.

The probability would be greater for at most $ . There is more area under the normal curve to the left of
$ than to the left of $ .

g. Do you think that the probability that the monthly food cost for a randomly selected 14- to 18-year-old female
is at most $ is closer to . , . , or . ? Explain your thinking.

Closer to . . Based on my answer to part (f), I expect the probability to be greater than the probability for
at most $ , which was . , but I do not think it would be as great as . because $ is less than
the mean of $ . , and the area to the left of $ . is . .

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h. Using a graphing calculator, and without using -scores, find the probability (rounded to the nearest
thousandth) that the monthly food cost for a randomly selected 14- to 18-year-old female is at most $ .
( )= .

i. Using a graphing calculator, and without using -scores, find the probability (rounded to the nearest
thousandth) that the monthly food cost for a randomly selected 14- to 18-year-old female is at least $ .
( )= .

Example 3 (5 minutes): Using a Spreadsheet to Find Normal Probabilities

In this example, students learn how to calculate normal probabilities using a spreadsheet. This example and the exercise
that follows revisits Example 1 and Exercise 1 but has students use a spreadsheet rather than a table of normal curve
areas. Use this example to show the class how to do this using a spreadsheet.*
*Spreadsheet note: Many spreadsheet programs, such as Excel, have a built-in function to calculate normal
probabilities. In Excel, this can be done by finding the area to the left of any particular cutoff value by typing the
following into a cell of the spreadsheet and then hitting the return key:
= NORMDIST(cutoff,mean,stddev,true).
The true needs to be included at the end in order to get the area to the left of the cutoff. For example,
= NORMDIST(50,40,10,true) gives 0.84124, which is the area to the left of 50 under the normal curve with
mean 40 and standard deviation 10.

Example 3: Using a Spreadsheet to Find Normal Probabilities

Return to the information given in Example 1. The USDA, in its Official Food Plans (www.cnpp.usda.gov), states that the
average cost of food for a 14- to 18-year-old male (on the Moderate-Cost Plan) is $ . per month. Assume that the
monthly food cost for a 14- to 18-year-old male is approximately normally distributed with a mean of $ . and a
standard deviation of $ . . Round your answers to four decimal places.

Use a spreadsheet to find the probability that the monthly food cost for a randomly selected 14- to 18-year-old male is

a. Less than $ .

If students are using Excel, this would be found by using

= NORMDIST( , . , . , true). The difference
between this answer and the answer using the table of
normal curve areas is due to rounding in calculating the
-score needed in order to use the table.
( )= .

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b. More than $ .

( )= .
= .

c. More than $ .

( )= .
= .

d. Between $ and $ .

(between and )= . .
= .

Exercise 3 (5 minutes)

Exercise 3

The USDA document described in Example 1 also states that the average cost of food for a 14- to 18-year-old female
(again, on the Moderate-Cost Plan) is $ . per month. Assume that the monthly food cost for a 14- to 18-year-old
female is approximately normally distributed with a mean of $ . and a standard deviation of $ . . Round your
answers to decimal places.

Use a spreadsheet to find the probability that the monthly food cost for a randomly selected 14- to 18-year-old female is
a. Less than $ .
( )= .

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b. Less than $ .

( )= .

c. More than $ .

( )= .
= .

d. Between $ and $ .

( )= . .
= .

Exercise 4 (6 minutes)
Here, students are led through the process of choosing a normal distribution to model a given data set. Students might
need some assistance prior to tackling this exercise. Teachers may wish to provide a quick review of how to draw a
histogram. Students may need to be reminded how to calculate the mean and the standard deviation for data given in
the form of a frequency distribution. In fact, this example provides the additional complication that the data are given in
the form of a grouped frequency distribution, so the midpoints of the intervals have to be used as the data values.
If time is short, simply provide students with reminders of these techniques mentioned above, and the exercise can then
be finished as part of the homework assignment.

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Exercise 4

The reaction times of people were measured. The results are shown in the frequency distribution below.

Reaction Time
. to < . . to < . . to < . . to < . . to < . . to < .
(seconds)
Frequency
a. Construct a histogram that displays these results.

b. Looking at the histogram, do you think a normal distribution would be an appropriate model for this
distribution?

Yes, the histogram is approximately symmetric and mound shaped.

c. The mean of the reaction times for these people is . , and the standard deviation of the reaction
times is . . For a normal distribution with this mean and standard deviation, what is the probability
that a randomly selected reaction time is at least . ?

Using Normalcdf( . , , . , . ), you get ( . )= . .

d. The actual proportion of these people who had a reaction time that was at least . is . (this
can be calculated from the frequency distribution). How does this proportion compare to the probability
that you calculated in part (c)? Does this confirm that the normal distribution is an appropriate model for
the reaction time distribution?

. is reasonably close to the probability based on the normal distribution, which was . . I think
that the normal model was appropriate.

Closing (2 minutes)
Refer to Exercise 3.
How would you interpret the probability that you found using a calculator in part (c)?
Approximately 39.4% of the people had a reaction time of 0.25 second or higher.
Ask students to summarize the main ideas of the lesson in writing or with a neighbor. Use this as an opportunity to
informally assess comprehension of the lesson. The Lesson Summary below offers some important ideas that should be
included.

Lesson 11: Normal Distributions 158

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Lesson Summary
Probabilities associated with normal distributions can be found using -scores and tables of standard normal curve
areas.

Probabilities associated with normal distributions can be found directly (without using -scores) using a graphing
calculator.

When a data distribution has a shape that is approximately normal, a normal distribution can be used as a model
for the data distribution. The normal distribution with the same mean and the standard deviation as the data
distribution is used.

Exit Ticket (5 minutes)

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Name Date

Lesson 11: Normal Distributions

Exit Ticket

1. SAT scores were originally scaled so that the scores for each section were approximately normally distributed with a
mean of 500 and a standard deviation of 100. Assuming that this scaling still applies, use a table of standard normal
curve areas to find the probability that a randomly selected SAT student scores
a. More than 700.

b. Between 440 and 560.

2. In 2012, the mean SAT math score was 514, and the standard deviation was 117. For the purposes of this question,
assume that the scores were normally distributed. Using a graphing calculator, and without using -scores, find the
probability (rounded to the nearest thousandth), and explain how the answer was determined that a randomly
selected SAT math student in 2012 scored
a. Between 400 and 480.

b. Less than 350.

Lesson 11: Normal Distributions 160

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

1. SAT scores were originally scaled so that the scores for each section were approximately normally distributed with a
mean of and a standard deviation of . Assuming that this scaling still applies, use a table of standard
normal curve areas to find the probability that a randomly selected SAT student scores
a. More than .

( )= .
= .

b. Between and .

( )= . .
= .

2. In 2012, the mean SAT math score was , and the standard deviation was . For the purposes of this question,
assume that the scores were normally distributed. Using a graphing calculator, and without using -scores, find the
probability (rounded to the nearest thousandth), and explain how the answer was determined that a randomly
selected SAT math student in 2012 scored
a. Between and .
( )= .

I used a TI-84 graphing calculator: Normalcdf( , , , ).

b. Less than .
( )= .

I used a TI-84 graphing calculator: Normalcdf( , , , ).

Lesson 11: Normal Distributions 161

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Problem Set Sample Solutions

1. Use a table of standard normal curve areas to find the following:

a. The area to the left of = .

b. The area to the right of = .

. = .

c. The area to the left of = .

d. The area to the right of = .

. = .

e. The area between = . and = .

. . = .

2. Suppose that the durations of high school baseball games are approximately normally distributed with mean
minutes and standard deviation minutes. Use a table of standard normal curve areas to find the probability that
a randomly selected high school baseball game lasts
a. Less than minutes.

( )= .

b. More than minutes.

( )= .
= .

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c. Between and minutes.

( )= . .
= .

3. Using a graphing calculator, and without using -scores, check your answers to Problem 2. (Round your answers to
the nearest thousandth.)

a. ( )= .

b. ( )= .

c. ( )= .

4. In Problem 2, you were told that the durations of high school baseball games are approximately normally
distributed with a mean of minutes and a standard deviation of minutes. Suppose also that the durations of
high school softball games are approximately normally distributed with a mean of minutes and the same
standard deviation, minutes. Is it more likely that a high school baseball game will last between and
minutes or that a high school softball game will last between and minutes? Answer this question without
doing any calculations.

The heights of the two normal distribution graphs are the same; the only difference between the graphs is that the
softball graph has a smaller mean. So, when the region under the graph between and is shaded, you get a
larger area for the baseball graph than for the softball graph. Therefore, it is more likely that the baseball game
will last between and minutes.

Lesson 11: Normal Distributions 163

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5. A farmer has female adult sheep. The sheep have recently been weighed, and the results are shown in the
table below.
Weight to < to < to < to < to < to < to <
(pounds)
Frequency

a. Construct a histogram that displays these results.

b. Looking at the histogram, do you think a normal distribution would be an appropriate model for this
distribution?

Yes, the histogram is approximately symmetric and mound shaped.

c. The weights of the sheep have mean . pounds and standard deviation . pounds. For a
normal distribution with this mean and standard deviation, what is the probability that a randomly selected
sheep has a weight of at least pounds? (Round your answer to the nearest thousandth.)

Using Normalcdf( , , . , . ), you get ( )= . .

Lesson 11: Normal Distributions 164

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Standard Normal Curve Areas

z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
–3.8 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001
–3.7 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001
–3.6 0.0002 0.0002 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001
–3.5 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002
–3.4 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0002
–3.3 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0003
–3.2 0.0007 0.0007 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005
–3.1 0.0010 0.0009 0.0009 0.0009 0.0008 0.0008 0.0008 0.0008 0.0007 0.0007
–3.0 0.0013 0.0013 0.0013 0.0012 0.0012 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0010 0.0010
–2.9 0.0019 0.0018 0.0018 0.0017 0.0016 0.0016 0.0015 0.0015 0.0014 0.0014
–2.8 0.0026 0.0025 0.0024 0.0023 0.0023 0.0022 0.0021 0.0021 0.0020 0.0019
–2.7 0.0035 0.0034 0.0033 0.0032 0.0031 0.0030 0.0029 0.0028 0.0027 0.0026
–2.6 0.0047 0.0045 0.0044 0.0043 0.0041 0.0040 0.0039 0.0038 0.0037 0.0036
–2.5 0.0062 0.0060 0.0059 0.0057 0.0055 0.0054 0.0052 0.0051 0.0049 0.0048
–2.4 0.0082 0.0080 0.0078 0.0075 0.0073 0.0071 0.0069 0.0068 0.0066 0.0064
–2.3 0.0107 0.0104 0.0102 0.0099 0.0096 0.0094 0.0091 0.0089 0.0087 0.0084
–2.2 0.0139 0.0136 0.0132 0.0129 0.0125 0.0122 0.0119 0.0116 0.0113 0.0110
–2.1 0.0179 0.0174 0.0160 0.0166 0.0162 0.0158 0.0154 0.0150 0.0146 0.0143
–2.0 0.0228 0.0222 0.0217 0.0212 0.0207 0.0202 0.0197 0.0192 0.0188 0.0183
–1.9 0.0287 0.0281 0.0274 0.0268 0.0262 0.0256 0.0250 0.0244 0.0239 0.0233
–1.8 0.0359 0.0351 0.0344 0.0336 0.0329 0.0322 0.0314 0.0307 0.0301 0.0294
–1.7 0.0446 0.0436 0.0427 0.0418 0.0409 0.0401 0.0392 0.0384 0.0375 0.0367
–1.6 0.0548 0.0537 0.0526 0.0516 0.0505 0.0495 0.0485 0.0475 0.0465 0.0455
–1.5 0.0668 0.0655 0.0643 0.0630 0.0618 0.0606 0.0594 0.0582 0.0571 0.0599
–1.4 0.0808 0.0793 0.0778 0.0764 0.0749 0.0735 0.0721 0.0708 0.0694 0.0681
–1.3 0.0968 0.0951 0.0934 0.0918 0.0901 0.0885 0.0869 0.0853 0.0838 0.0823
–1.2 0.1151 0.1131 0.1112 0.1093 0.1075 0.1056 0.1038 0.1020 0.1003 0.0985
–1.1 0.1357 0.1335 0.1314 0.1292 0.1271 0.1251 0.1230 0.1210 0.1190 0.1170
–1.0 0.1587 0.1562 0.1539 0.1515 0.1492 0.1469 0.1446 0.1423 0.1401 0.1379
–0.9 0.1841 0.1814 0.1788 0.1762 0.1736 0.1711 0.1685 0.1660 0.1635 0.1611
–0.8 0.2119 0.2090 0.2061 0.2033 0.2005 0.1977 0.1949 0.1922 0.1894 0.1867
–0.7 0.2420 0.2389 0.2358 0.2327 0.2296 0.2266 0.2236 0.2206 0.2177 0.2148
–0.6 0.2743 0.2709 0.2676 0.2643 0.2611 0.2578 0.2546 0.2514 0.2483 0.2451
–0.5 0.3085 0.3050 0.3015 0.2981 0.2946 0.2912 0.2877 0.2843 0.2810 0.2776
–0.4 0.3446 0.3409 0.3372 0.3336 0.3300 0.3264 0.3228 0.3192 0.3156 0.3121
–0.3 0.3821 0.3783 0.3745 0.3707 0.3669 0.3632 0.3594 0.3557 0.3520 0.3483
–0.2 0.4207 0.4168 0.4129 0.4090 0.4052 0.4013 0.3974 0.3936 0.3897 0.3859
–0.1 0.4602 0.4562 0.4522 0.4483 0.4443 0.4404 0.4364 0.4325 0.4286 0.4247
–0.0 0.5000 0.4960 0.4920 0.4880 0.4840 0.4801 0.4761 0.4721 0.4681 0.4641

Lesson 11: Normal Distributions 165

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z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
0.0 0.5000 0.5040 0.5080 0.5120 0.5160 0.5199 0.5239 0.5279 0.5319 0.5359
0.1 0.5398 0.5438 0.5478 0.5517 0.5557 0.5596 0.5636 0.5675 0.5714 0.5753
0.2 0.5793 0.5832 0.5871 0.5910 0.5948 0.5987 0.6026 0.6064 0.6103 0.6141
0.3 0.6179 0.6217 0.6255 0.6293 0.6331 0.6368 0.6406 0.6443 0.6480 0.6517
0.4 0.6554 0.6591 0.6628 0.6664 0.6700 0.6736 0.6772 0.6808 0.6844 0.6879
0.5 0.6915 0.6950 0.6985 0.7019 0.7054 0.7088 0.7123 0.7157 0.7190 0.7224
0.6 0.7257 0.7291 0.7324 0.7357 0.7389 0.7422 0.7454 0.7486 0.7517 0.7549
0.7 0.7580 0.7611 0.7642 0.7673 0.7704 0.7734 0.7764 0.7794 0.7823 0.7852
0.8 0.7881 0.7910 0.7939 0.7967 0.7995 0.8023 0.8051 0.8078 0.8106 0.8133
0.9 0.8159 0.8186 0.8212 0.8238 0.8264 0.8289 0.8315 0.8340 0.8365 0.8389
1.0 0.8413 0.8438 0.8461 0.8485 0.8508 0.8531 0.8554 0.8577 0.8599 0.8621
1.1 0.8643 0.8665 0.8686 0.8708 0.8729 0.8749 0.8770 0.8790 0.8810 0.8830
1.2 0.8849 0.8869 0.8888 0.8907 0.8925 0.8944 0.8962 0.8980 0.8997 0.9015
1.3 0.9032 0.9049 0.9066 0.9082 0.9099 0.9115 0.9131 0.9147 0.9162 0.9177
1.4 0.9192 0.9207 0.9222 0.9236 0.9251 0.9265 0.9279 0.9292 0.9306 0.9319
1.5 0.9332 0.9345 0.9357 0.9370 0.9382 0.9394 0.9406 0.9418 0.9429 0.9441
1.6 0.9452 0.9463 0.9474 0.9484 0.9495 0.9505 0.9515 0.9525 0.9535 0.9545
1.7 0.9554 0.9564 0.9573 0.9582 0.9591 0.9599 0.9608 0.9616 0.9625 0.9633
1.8 0.9641 0.9649 0.9656 0.9664 0.9671 0.9678 0.9686 0.9693 0.9699 0.9706
1.9 0.9713 0.9719 0.9726 0.9732 0.9738 0.9744 0.9750 0.9756 0.9761 0.9767
2.0 0.9772 0.9778 0.9783 0.9788 0.9793 0.9798 0.9803 0.9808 0.9812 0.9817
2.1 0.9821 0.9826 0.9830 0.9834 0.9838 0.9842 0.9846 0.9850 0.9854 0.9857
2.2 0.9861 0.9864 0.9868 0.9871 0.9875 0.9878 0.9881 0.9884 0.9887 0.9890
2.3 0.9893 0.9896 0.9898 0.9901 0.9904 0.9906 0.9909 0.9911 0.9913 0.9916
2.4 0.9918 0.9920 0.9922 0.9925 0.9927 0.9929 0.9931 0.9932 0.9934 0.9936
2.5 0.9938 0.9940 0.9941 0.9943 0.9945 0.9946 0.9948 0.9949 0.9951 0.9952
2.6 0.9953 0.9955 0.9956 0.9957 0.9959 0.9960 0.9961 0.9962 0.9963 0.9964
2.7 0.9965 0.9966 0.9967 0.9968 0.9969 0.9970 0.9971 0.9972 0.9973 0.9974
2.8 0.9974 0.9975 0.9976 0.9977 0.9977 0.9978 0.9979 0.9979 0.9980 0.9981
2.9 0.9981 0.9982 0.9982 0.9983 0.9984 0.9984 0.9985 0.9985 0.9986 0.9986
3.0 0.9987 0.9987 0.9987 0.9988 0.9988 0.9989 0.9989 0.9989 0.9990 0.9990
3.1 0.9990 0.9991 0.9991 0.9991 0.9992 0.9992 0.9992 0.9992 0.9993 0.9993
3.2 0.9993 0.9993 0.9994 0.9994 0.9994 0.9994 0.9994 0.9995 0.9995 0.9995
3.3 0.9995 0.9995 0.9995 0.9996 0.9996 0.9996 0.9996 0.9996 0.9996 0.9997
3.4 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9998
3.5 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998
3.6 0.9998 0.9998 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999
3.7 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999
3.8 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999

Lesson 11: Normal Distributions 166

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Name Date

1. On his way to work every day, Frank passes through two intersections with traffic signals. Sometimes the
lights are green when he arrives at the light; sometimes they are red, and he must stop. The probability
that he must stop at the first signal is (first) = 0.4. The probability that he must stop at the second
signal is (second) = 0.5. The probability that he must stop at both lights is 0.3. Suppose we randomly
select one morning that he travels to work, and we look at the outcomes of the two lights.

a. Describe the event “first, not second” in words.

b. List all of the outcomes in the sample space.

c. Calculate (first or second), and interpret your result in context.

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d. Calculate the probability of the event described in part (a).

e. Are the events “stopping at first light” and “stopping at second light” independent? Explain your
answer.

f. Assuming the probability of stopping at the first signal does not change from day to day, how
surprising would it be for Frank to have to stop at the first light five days in a row? If he does have to
stop at the first light five days in a row, would you question the model that assigns a probability of
0.5 to the first light each day?

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 168

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2. An online bookstore sells both print books and e-books (books in an electronic format). Customers can
pay with either a gift card or a credit card.

a. Suppose that the probability of the event “print book is purchased” is 0.6 and that the probability of
the event “customer pays using gift card” is 0.2. If these two events are independent, what is the
probability that a randomly selected book purchase is a print book paid for using a gift card?

b. Suppose that the probability of the event “e-book is purchased” is 0.4; the probability of the event
“customer pays using gift card” is 0.2; and the probability of the event “e-book is purchased and
customer pays using a gift card” is 0.1. Are the two events “e-book is purchased” and “customer
pays using a gift card” independent? Explain why or why not.

3. Airlines post the estimated arrival times for all of their flights. However, sometimes the flights arrive later
than expected. The following data report the number of flights that were “on time” or “late” for two
different airlines in November 2012 for all flights to Houston, Chicago, and Los Angeles:

Houston Chicago Los Angeles

On Time Late On Time Late On Time Late
Airline A 7,318 1,017 466 135 544 145
Airline B 598 70 8,330 1,755 2,707 566

a. Use the data to estimate the probability that a randomly selected flight arriving in Houston will be on
time.

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 169

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Consider only the flights to Chicago and Los Angeles for these two airlines combined.

Chicago Los Angeles

On Time 8,796 3,251
Late 1,890 711

b. Explain what it means to say that the events “arriving on time” and “Chicago” are independent.

c. Do the events “arriving on time” and “Chicago” appear to be approximately independent? Explain
your answer.

4. The average height of the 140 million U.S. males is 5 ft. and 10 in. Some males from the U.S. become
professional basketball players. The average height of the 350–450 professional basketball players in the
NBA (National Basketball Association) is about 6 ft. and 7 in. Which of the following probabilities should
be larger? Or would they be similar?

The probability that a U.S. male over 6 ft. tall is a professional basketball player
The probability that a professional basketball player is over 6 ft. tall

Explain your reasoning.

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 170

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5. A researcher gathers data on how long teenagers spend on individual cell phone calls (in number of
minutes). Suppose the research determines that these calls have a mean 10 minutes and standard
deviation 7 minutes.

a. Suppose the researcher also claims that the distribution of the call lengths follows a normal
distribution. Sketch a graph displaying this distribution. Be sure to add a scale and to label your
horizontal axis.

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b. Using your graph, shade the area that represents the probability that a randomly selected call lasts
more than 12 minutes. Is this probability closer to 0.50 or to 0.05?

c. After looking at the above mean and standard deviation of the call length data, a second researcher
indicates that she does not think that a normal distribution is an appropriate model for the call
length distribution. Which researcher (the first or the second) do you think is correct? Justify your
choice.

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 172

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A Progression Toward Mastery

STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3 STEP 4
Assessment Missing or Missing or A correct answer A correct answer
Task Item incorrect answer incorrect answer with some supported by
and little evidence but evidence of evidence of substantial
of reasoning or some reasoning or reasoning or evidence of solid
application of application of application of reasoning or
mathematics to mathematics to mathematics to application of
solve the problem. solve the problem. solve the problem. mathematics to
OR solve the problem.
An incorrect
answer with
substantial
evidence of solid
reasoning or
application of
mathematics to
solve the problem.
1 a Student provides an Student appears to Student does not Student describes the
answer that does not have misread the event answer in context. combined outcome for
relate to the provided or describes a both lights and in the
S-CP.A.1 notation. probability rather than context of the problem.
the event.

b Student provides an Student lists possible Student provides an Student provides an

answer that does not outcomes but not as answer that does not answer that includes all
relate to the idea of paired outcomes (e.g., include all of the of the outcomes and is
S-CP.A.1 sample space (i.e., all describes the lights possible outcomes. presented in an
possible outcomes of individually rather than organized fashion.
the probability the joint outcomes of
experiment). the two lights).

c Student misrepresents Student treats the two Student demonstrates Student uses an
the event (e.g., the lights separately rather recognition of the need appropriate probability
S-CP.B.7 interaction rather than than finding a combined to find the union but rule (e.g., addition rule)
the union) or event. Student assumes the outcomes or solution method
determines the provides an in the sample space are (e.g., table, Venn
probability incorrectly interpretation of the equally likely or adds diagram) to find the
and obtains a value union that is not (first) + (second), probability of interest.
below zero or above complete or is unclear. ignoring the Student correctly
one. Student provides intersection. Student interprets the
an interpretation that is correctly interprets the probability of the union.
inconsistent with the probability of the union.
calculation.

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 173

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d Student misinterprets Student demonstrates Student demonstrates Student uses an

the event (e.g., the understanding of the recognition of the need appropriate probability
S-CP.B.7 union rather than an correct event but is not to find the intersection rule (e.g., addition rule)
intersection) or able to calculate the but assumes the or solution method
determines the probability. outcomes in the sample (e.g., table, Venn
probability incorrectly space are equally likely diagram) to find the
and obtains a value or incorrectly applies a probability of interest.
below zero or above probability rule.
one.

e Student is not able to Student includes only Student includes only Student describes an
address the issue of one of the three two of the three appropriate method for
S-CP.B.3 independence. components listed. components listed. checking independence,
includes appropriate
calculations, and draws
a correct conclusion.

f Student is not able to Student calculates an Student calculates the Student uses the
calculate a probability. incorrect probability. probability correctly but multiplication rule to
S-IC.A.2 does not relate it to the calculate the probability
scenario. and evaluates the
probability as small.

2 a Student is not able to Student incorrectly adds Student knows to Student uses the
calculate a probability. the two given multiply probabilities multiplication rule to
probabilities rather but makes an error that calculate a correct
S-CP.A.2 than multiplying. results in an incorrect probability.
probability.

b Student is not able to Student indicates that Student correctly Student indicates that
address the issue of the events are not calculates the the events are not
independence. independent, but the probability of the independent with an
S-CP.A.2 explanation confuses intersection to be 0.08 explanation based on
independent events and but then explains that the probability of the
mutually exclusive the events are intersection not being
events. independent because equal to the product of
0.08 is close to 0.1. the two individual
probabilities.

3 a Student does not use Student reports the Student sets up the Student reads the
information from the proportion of on-time calculation correctly but correct proportion from
table. flights or the proportion transcribes a number the table.
S-CP.B.6 of flights arriving in incorrectly or has a
Houston. small calculation error.

b Student provides a Student confuses Student describes a Student correctly

definition that is not independence with correct generic interprets independence
related to probabilities. mutually exclusive or interpretation of in the context of the
S-CP.A.5 equiprobable. probability but does not data.
relate it to this context.

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 174

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c Student is not able to Student includes only Student includes only Student describes an
address the issue of one of the three two of the three appropriate method for
independence. components listed. components listed. checking independence,
S-CP.A.4 includes appropriate
calculations, and draws
a correct conclusion.

4 S-CP.A.5 Student does not think Student is not able to Student correctly Student correctly
there is enough differentiate between identifies the two compares the two
information given in the the two conditional conditional probabilities conditional proportions,
problem or does not probabilities and but does not make a (tall | NBA) and
include sufficient considers them similar. reasonable comparison. (NBA | tall), and
reasoning. correctly identifies the
(tall | NBA) as larger.

5 a Student does not Student draws a normal Student draws a sketch Student creates a
include the sketch of a curve but with that is missing either reasonable sketch with
normal curve. annotation. complete scaling (e.g., scaling to represent the
S-ID.A.4 the mean but no other mean and standard
values) or does not deviation and includes a
include an axis label. horizontal axis label.

b Student estimates the Student shades at 12, Student shades for a Student shades an
probability, but it is not but it is not consistent probability of less than appropriate region
based on the sketch. with the labeling and 12 minutes or does not given the graph.
S-ID.A.4 scaling of the graph. address the probability Student provides an
OR question. estimate of the
Student estimates a probability that is
probability that is not consistent with the
consistent with the shaded area.
shading.

c Student provides a Student recognizes the Student considers the Student considers the
response that does not lower limit on the call mean and the standard shape of the
indicate a problem with length but is not able to deviation but does not distribution and
S-ID.A.4 using the normal relate that to the mean address the lower limit indicates that extending
distribution. and standard deviation. of zero. 3 below the mean
OR would predict negative
Student draws an call lengths (agreeing
incorrect conclusion as with researcher 2).
to which researcher.

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 175

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Name Date

1. On his way to work every day, Frank passes through two intersections with traffic signals. Sometimes the
lights are green when he arrives at the light; sometimes they are red, and he must stop. The probability
that he must stop at the first signal is (first) = 0.4. The probability that he must stop at the second
signal is (second) = 0.5. The probability that he must stop at both lights is 0.3. Suppose we randomly
select one morning that he travels to work, and we look at the outcomes of the two lights.

a. Describe the event “first, not second” in words.

This event corresponds to stopping at the first light but not the second light. (If the
student reverses these, allow for credit in remaining problems if subsequent responses
are consistent.)

b. List all of the outcomes in the sample space.

The outcome (first, second) represents stopping at both lights

The outcome (first, not second) represents stopping at the first light but not at the
second.
The outcome (not first, second) represents not stopping at the first light but stopping at
the second.
The outcome (not first, not second) represents not stopping at either light.

c. Calculate (first or second), and interpret your result in context.

P(first or second) = P(first) + P(second) P(first and second) = 0.4 + 0.5 0.3 = 0.60
by the addition rule. This is the probability that Frank must stop at at least one of the
lights.

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 176

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d. Calculate the probability of the event described in part (a).

Using a table of, say, 100 trips:

Stop at First No Stop at First Total
Light Light
Stop at Second Light 30 20 50
No Stop at Second Light 10 40 50
Total 40 60 100

10
So, P(stop at first but not at second) = = 0.10
100
Alternative solutions: P(stopping at first light) = P(stopping at first and second) +
P(stopping at first and not second) 0.4 = 0.3 + x; therefore, x = 0.10.
Looking at a Venn diagram:

0.1 0.3 0.2

0.4

Stopping at First Light Stopping at Second Light

The probability of stopping at the first light but not the second light is 0.10.

e. Are the events “stopping at first light” and “stopping at second light” independent? Explain your
answer.
We need to determine whether P(first and second) = P(first)P(second).
However, 0.30 0.4(0.5), so these events are not independent.

f. Assuming the probability of stopping at the first signal does not change from day to day, how
surprising would it be for Frank to have to stop at the first light five days in a row? If he does have to
stop at the first light five days in a row, would you question the model that assigns a probability of
0.5 to the first light each day?
Because the probability is not changing, we can multiply the probabilities together.
P(stop and stop and stop and stop and stop) = P(stop)5 = (0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)

This is a small probability and indicates that this would be a surprising observation
assuming the model is correct.

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 177

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2. An online bookstore sells both print books and e-books (books in an electronic format). Customers can
pay with either a gift card or a credit card.

a. Suppose that the probability of the event “print book is purchased” is 0.6 and that the probability of
the event “customer pays using gift card” is 0.2. If these two events are independent, what is the
probability that a randomly selected book purchase is a print book paid for using a gift card?
P(print book and pays by gift card) = P(print book)P(pays by gift card)
= (0.6)(0.2)
= 0.12

b. Suppose that the probability of the event “e-book is purchased” is 0.4; the probability of the event
“customer pays using gift card” is 0.2; and the probability of the event “e-book is purchased and
customer pays using a gift card” is 0.1. Are the two events “e-book is purchased” and “customer pays
using a gift card” independent? Explain why or why not.
The two events are not independent. If they were independent, the probability of the
event “e-book is purchased and customer pays using a gift card” would be (0.4)(0.2),
which is 0.08. Because this probability is actually 0.1, the events are not independent.

3. Airlines post the estimated arrival times for all of their flights. However, sometimes the flights arrive later
than expected. The following data report the number of flights that were “on time” or “late” for two
different airlines in November 2012 for all flights to Houston, Chicago, and Los Angeles:

Houston Chicago Los Angeles

On Time Late On Time Late On Time Late
Airline A 7,318 1,017 466 135 544 145
Airline B 598 70 8,330 1,755 2,707 566

a. Use the data to estimate the probability that a randomly selected flight arriving in Houston will be on
time.
7318 + 598
7318 + 58 + 1017 + 70

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Consider only the flights to Chicago and Los Angeles for these two airlines combined.

Chicago Los Angeles

On Time 8,796 3,251
Late 1,890 711

b. Explain what it means to say that the events “arriving on time” and “Chicago” are independent.

It would mean that the probability of arriving on time is the same for Chicago as it is
for Los Angeles. In other words, the likelihood of arriving on time does not depend on
which city the plane is arriving.

c. Do the events “arriving on time” and “Chicago” appear to be approximately independent? Explain
your answer.
8796
P(on time | Chicago) =
8796 + 1890
3251
P(on time | Los Angeles) =
3251 + 711
The on-time percentage is pretty similar for either city, so the events are roughly
independent.

4. The average height of the 140 million U.S. males is 5 ft. and 10 in. Some males from the U.S. become
professional basketball players. The average height of the 350–450 professional basketball players in the
NBA (National Basketball Association) is about 6 ft. and 7 in. Which of the following probabilities should
be larger? Or would they be similar?

The probability that a U.S. male over 6 ft. tall is a professional basketball player
The probability that a professional basketball player is over 6 ft. tall

Explain your reasoning.

P(tall | NBA player) is a fairly high number as almost all NBA players are tall.
P(NBA player | tall) is a pretty small number as not many tall men are in the NBA. So, the
second probability is much larger.

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5. A researcher gathers data on how long teenagers spend on individual cell phone calls (in number of
minutes). Suppose the research determines that these calls have a mean 10 minutes and standard
deviation 7 minutes.

a. Suppose the researcher also claims that the distribution of the call lengths follows a normal
distribution. Sketch a graph displaying this distribution. Be sure to add a scale and to label your
horizontal axis.

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b. Using your graph, shade the area that represents the probability that a randomly selected call lasts
more than 12 minutes. Is this probability closer to 0.50 or to 0.05?

Twelve minutes is very close (within one standard deviation) to the mean of 10
minutes, so the probability of being more than 12 minutes will be close to 0.5.

c. After looking at the above mean and standard deviation of the call length data, a second researcher
indicates that she does not think that a normal distribution is an appropriate model for the call
length distribution. Which researcher (the first or the second) do you think is correct? Justify your
choice.

We notice from the sketch in part (a) that this implies a noticeable fraction of the calls
would last less than zero minutes, which is not possible. I agree with the second
researcher.

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Mathematics Curriculum
ALGEBRA II 4

Topic C

Sample
S-IC.A.1, S-IC.B.3, S-IC.B.4, S-IC.B.6

Focus Standards: S-IC.A.1 Understand statistics as a process for making inferences about population parameters
based on a random sample from that population.
S-IC.B.3 Recognize the purposes of and differences among sample surveys, experiments, and
observational studies; explain how randomization relates to each.
S-IC.B.4 Use data from a sample survey to estimate a population mean or proportion; develop a
margin of error through the use of simulation models for random sampling.
S-IC.B.6 Evaluate reports based on data.
11
Lesson 12: Types of Statistical Studies (P) 1
Lesson 13: Using Sample Data to Estimate a Population Characteristic (P)
Lessons 14–15: Sampling Variability in the Sample Proportion (E, E)
Lessons 16–17: Margin of Error When Estimating a Population Proportion (E, P)
Lessons 18–19: Sampling Variability in the Sample Mean (E, P)
Lessons 20–21: Margin of Error When Estimating a Population Mean (E, P)
Lesson 22: Evaluating Reports Based on Data from a Sample (P)

This topic introduces different types of statistical studies (e.g., observational studies, surveys, and
experiments) (S-IC.B.3). The role of randomization (i.e., random selection in observational studies and
surveys and random assignment in experiments) is addressed. A discussion of random selection (i.e.,
selecting a sample at random from a population of interest) shows students how selecting participants at
random provides a representative sample, thereby allowing conclusions to be generalized from the sample to
the population. A discussion of random assignment in experiments, which involves assigning subjects to
experimental groups at random, helps students see that random assignment is designed to create
comparable groups making it possible to assess the effects of an explanatory variable on a response.

1Lesson Structure Key: P-Problem Set Lesson, M-Modeling Cycle Lesson, E-Exploration Lesson, S-Socratic Lesson

Topic C: Drawing Conclusions Using Data from a Sample 182

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The distinction between population characteristics and sample statistics (first made in Grade 7) is revisited.
Scenarios are introduced in which students are asked a statistical question that involves estimating a
population mean or a population proportion. For example, students are asked to define an appropriate
population, population characteristic, sample, and sample statistics that might be used in a study of the time
it takes students to run a quarter mile or a study of the proportion of national parks that contain bald eagle
nests.
In this topic, students use data from a random sample to estimate a population mean or a population
proportion. Building on what they learned about sampling variability in Grade 7, students use simulation to
create an understanding of margin of error. In Grade 7, students learned that the proportion of successes in a
random sample from a population varies from sample to sample due to the random selection process. They
understand that the value of the sample proportion is not exactly equal to the value of the population
proportion. In Algebra II, they use margin of error to describe how different the value of the sample
proportion might be from the value of the population proportion. Students begin by using a physical
simulation process to carry out a simulation. Starting with a population that contains 40% successes (using a
bag with 40 black beans and 60 white beans), they select random samples from the population and calculate
the sample proportion. By doing this many times, they are able to get a sense of what kind of differences are
likely. Their understanding should then extend to include the concept of margin of error. Students then
proceed to use technology to carry out a simulation. Once students understand the concept of margin of
error, they go on to learn how to calculate and interpret it in context (S-IC.A.1, S-IC.B.4). Students also
evaluate reports from the media in which sample data are used to estimate a population mean or proportion
(S-IC.B.6).

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Lesson 12: Types of Statistical Studies

Student Outcomes
Students distinguish between observational studies, surveys, and experiments.
Students explain why random selection is an important consideration in observational studies and surveys and
why random assignment is an important consideration in experiments.
Students recognize when it is reasonable to generalize the results of an observational study or survey to some
larger population and when it is reasonable to reach a cause-and-effect conclusion about the relationship
between two variables.

Lesson Notes
A statistical study is a four-step process that begins by asking a question that can be answered with data. The next steps
are to (1) collect appropriate data, (2) organize and analyze the data, and (3) arrive at a conclusion in the context of the
original question. Grade 6 (Module 6 Lesson 1) introduced students to the first step in asking a statistical question while
this lesson focuses on the second step on collecting data. The primary resource for the four-step process is The GAISE
Report (Guidelines in Assessment and Instruction for Statistics Education). A free download can be found at
https://www.amstat.org/education/gaise/GAISEPreK-12 Full.pdf.
This lesson discusses the three main types of statistical studies: observational studies, surveys, and experiments. It
defines each type, gives examples for each, and asks students to distinguish between them.
An observational study records the values of variables for members of a sample. There are several types of
observational studies. Observational studies are designed to observe subjects as they are, without any
manipulation by the researcher.
A survey is a type of observational study that gathers data by asking people a number of questions.
An experiment assigns subjects to treatments to see what effect the treatments have on some response.

Classwork
Opening Exercise (2 minutes)
Read through the opening text as a class. Discuss each of the three types of
Scaffolding:
statistical studies: observational studies, surveys, and experiments, making sure
that students understand the differences between the types of studies. A visual A graphic organizer for
organizer might be helpful here, especially for English language learners. statistical studies could
resemble the Venn diagram
below.
Opening Exercise

You want to know what proportion of the population likes rock music. You carefully E O
consider three ways to conduct a study. What are the similarities and differences
between the following three alternatives? Do any display clear advantages or
S
disadvantages over the others?

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a. You could pick a random sample of people and ask them the question, “Do you like rock music?” and record
their answers.

b. You could pick a random sample of people and follow them for a period of time, noting their music purchases,
both in stores and online.

c. You could pick a random sample of people, separate them into groups, and have each group listen to a
different genre of music. You would collect data on the people who display an emotional response to the rock
music.

A statistical study begins by asking a question that can be answered with data. The next steps are to collect appropriate
data, organize and analyze them, and arrive at a conclusion in the context of the original question. This lesson focuses on
the three main types of statistical studies: observational studies, surveys, and experiments. The objective of an
observational study and a survey is to learn about characteristics of some population, so the data should be collected in a
way that would result in a representative sample. This speaks to the importance of random selection of subjects for the
study. The objective of an experiment is to answer such questions as “What is the effect of treatments on a response
variable?” Data in an experiment need to be collected in a way that does not favor one treatment over another. This
demonstrates the importance of random assignment of subjects in the study to the treatments.

An observational study is one in which the values of one or more variables are observed with no attempt to affect the
outcomes. One kind of observational study is a survey. A survey requires asking a group of people to respond to one or
more questions. (A poll is one example of a survey.) An experiment differs from an observational study. In an
experiment, subjects are assigned to treatments for the purpose of seeing what effect the treatment has on some
response while an observational study makes no attempt to affect the outcomes (i.e., no treatment is given). Note that
subjects could be people, animals, or any set of items that produce variability in their responses. Here is an example of
an observational study: In a random sample of students, it was observed that those students who played a musical
instrument had better grades than those who did not play a musical instrument. In an experiment, a group of students
who do not currently play a musical instrument would be assigned at random to having to play a musical instrument or
not having to play a musical instrument for a certain period of time. Then, at the end of the period of time, we would
compare academic performance.

Classify each of the three study methods about rock music as an observational study, a survey, or an experiment.

Example 1 (5–7 minutes): Survey

Discuss each part of the example as a class.
A survey asks people to respond to one or more questions. First graders have no doubt done this in asking their
classmates, “What is your favorite color?” But constructing clear questions may not be so easy. A poorly worded
question may confuse the person answering it.
For example, take the question, “Do you like your school’s cafeteria food?” How do you answer if you bring your own
lunch? Or what if you like the salad but do not like the turkey sandwich? Assuming that the person answering eats the
cafeteria food, a better survey approach would be to say, “For each of the following items offered by our cafeteria, check
the appropriate box.”

Example 1: Survey

Item I like the item. I do not like the item. I have never tried the item.
Salad
Vegetable Pizza
Turkey Sandwich
Raspberry Tea

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a. It is easy to determine if a study is a survey. A survey asks people to respond to questions. But surveys can be
flawed in several ways. Questions may be confusing. For example, consider the following question:

What kind of computer do you own? (Circle one) Mac IBM-PC

How do you answer that question if you do not own a computer? How do you answer that question if you
own a different brand? A better question would be

Do you own a computer? (Circle one) Yes No

If you answered yes, what brand of computer is it?

Now consider the question, “Do you like your school’s cafeteria food?”

Rewrite the question in a better form. Keep in mind that not all students may use the school’s cafeteria, and
even if they do, there may be some foods that they like and some that they do not like.

A survey should not be generalized beyond the set of people who responded unless participants are randomly selected
from some identifiable group. How to select a random sample was covered in Grade 7, but it may be necessary to
review how to use a random number table with students.

b. Something else to consider with surveys is how survey participants are chosen. If the
purpose of the survey is to learn about some population, ideally participants would be Scaffolding:
randomly selected from the population of interest. If people are not randomly
selected, misleading conclusions from the survey data may be drawn. There are many
Nobody appreciated the power
famous examples of this. Perhaps the most famous case was in 1936 when The of random sampling more than
Literary Digest magazine predicted that Alf Landon would beat incumbent President George Gallup who developed
Franklin Delano Roosevelt by electoral votes to . Roosevelt won to . the Gallup Poll. Have students
Ten million questionnaires were sent to prospective voters (selected from the do research on how Gallup got
magazine’s subscription list, automobile registration lists, phone lists, and club started in the polling business
membership lists), and over two million questionnaires were returned. Surely such a
in 1936. How did he correctly
large sample should represent the whole population. How could The Literary Digest
prediction be so far off the mark? predict the 1936 election while
The Literary Digest was so far
The sample was biased toward the wealthy, and in 1936, during the heart of the Great
Depression, the wealthy were not representative of the whole population of voters. off?
Another difficulty was that not everyone who received the survey chose to return it.
That resulted in what is called voluntary response bias.

c. Write or say to your neighbor two things that are important about surveys.

Example 2 (7–9 minutes): Observational Study

Work through each part of the example as a class.
A primary difference between an observational study and an experiment is that an experiment imposes treatments on
subjects to see what effect those treatments might have on their responses. Observational studies do not impose
treatments on subjects. There is no attempt to influence the responses. Sometimes situations are encountered in which
an observational study needs to be done because an experiment cannot be performed. For example, it would be
unethical (to say the least) to impose a dangerous treatment on people, such as assigning them to smoke a pack of
cigarettes per day or exposing them purposely to asbestos.
A word of warning: There are many examples of famous unethical experiments that are incredibly disturbing. So, if
assigning students to find and report on an unethical experiment, consider providing them with a prescreened list rather
than letting them loose on the Internet.

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Example 2: Observational Study

a. An observational study records the values of variables for members of a sample but does not attempt to
influence the responses. For example, researchers investigated the link between the use of cell phones and
brain cancer. There are two variables in this study: One is the extent of cell phone usage, and the second is
whether a person has brain cancer. Both variables were measured for a group of people. This is an
observational study. There was no attempt to influence peoples’ cell phone usage to see if different levels of
usage made any difference in whether or not a person developed brain cancer.

Why would studying any relationship between asbestos exposure and lung cancer be an observational study
and not an experiment?

Random sampling of subjects is important in observational studies and surveys in order to eliminate bias so that sample
results may be generalized to the population from which the sample was taken.

b. In an observational study (just as in surveys), the people or objects to be observed would ideally be selected
at random from the population of interest. This would eliminate bias and make it possible to generalize from
a sample to a population. For example, to determine if the potato chips made in a factory contain the desired
amount of salt, a sample of chips would be selected randomly so that the sample can be considered to be
representative of the population of chips.

Discuss how a random sample of chips might be selected from a conveyor belt of chips.

Cause-and-effect is a very important issue. Allow ample time to discuss this issue, and have students critique several
MP.3
examples. Students might find some examples to be humorous. For example, there is a strong positive relationship
between the number of television sets in a country and the life expectancies of its residents. Could one conclude that to
increase the life expectancies of the residents of some country, they need only to increase the number of television sets
in that country? Surely not. But why not? A “rich” country would have many television sets but would also have access
to health care and fresh water, which provide a better quality of life and, hence, a higher life expectancy. On the other
hand, a poor country would have fewer television sets but would also have less access to health care and fresh water,
leading to a lower life expectancy. The economic status of a country is what explains the relationship. Economic status
is a lurking variable.
A lurking variable is one that causes two variables to have a high relationship even though there is no real direct
relationship between the two variables.
Ice cream sales and the number of drowning accidents are positively related. Therefore, can it be concluded that ice
cream sales cause drowning accidents? The lurking variable here is time of year. More ice cream is sold in the summer
than in the winter, and there is more opportunity for drowning in the summer than winter. Internet research may
provide some more examples for study.
Often people are interested in knowing what causes something to happen. The main disadvantage of an observational
MP.2 study is that a cause-and-effect conclusion cannot be drawn from any relationship observed in such a study.
Understanding this disadvantage is important for students to identify as they analyze statistical studies. For example, an
observational study indicating that extensive use of a cell phone is indeed linked with brain cancer does not mean that
extensive cell phone usage causes brain cancer because there may be many other variables related to cell phone usage
that may also relate to brain cancer. For example, maybe people who are heavy cell phone users tend to also have very
stressful jobs, and stress may be a factor contributing to poor health. An experiment must be done in order to establish
causality.

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c. Suppose that an observational study establishes a link between asbestos exposure and lung cancer. Based on
that finding, can we conclude that asbestos exposure causes lung cancer? Why or why not?

Answers will vary. Sample response: No. It is possible there are other variables that have not been examined,
such as whether or not the subject smokes cigarettes.

d. Write or say to your neighbor two things that are important about observational studies.

Example 3 (5–7 minutes): Experiment

Discuss each part of the example as a class. Make sure that students understand why the study described in part (a) is
an experiment and that they can identify the explanatory variable and the response variable.
The cause-and-effect difficulty discussed in observational studies can be rectified with an experiment. Being able to vary
the treatment to see what the response is in each case enables a cause-and-effect conclusion to be made as long as the
treatment groups are comparable. For instance, in the radish seedlings example, by having three fixed treatment levels
of light/dark and having measured the lengths of germinated seedlings, it can be concluded that complete darkness
produces the longest lengths. (See The GAISE Report, pages 75–79.)

Example 3: Experiment

a. An experiment imposes treatments to see the effect of the treatments on some response. Suppose that an
observational study indicated that a certain type of tree did not have as much termite damage as other trees.
Researchers wondered if resin from the tree was toxic to termites. They decided to do an experiment where
they exposed some termites to the resin and others to plain water and recorded whether the termites
survived. The explanatory variable (treatment variable) is the exposure type (resin, plain water), and the
response variable is whether or not the termites survived. We know this is an experiment because the
researchers imposed a treatment (exposure type) on the subjects (termites).
Is the following an observational study or an experiment? Why? If it is an experiment, identify the treatment
variable and the response variable. If it is an observational study, identify the population of interest.
A study was done to answer the question, “What is the effect of different durations of light and dark on the
growth of radish seedlings?” Three similar growth chambers (plastic bags) were created in which seeds
randomly chosen from a package were placed in each chamber. One chamber was randomly selected and
placed in hours of light, another for hours of light and hours of darkness, and a third for hours
of darkness. After three days, researchers measured and recorded the lengths of radish seedlings for the
germinating seeds.

Recall that random sampling of subjects was done in observational studies and surveys in order to obtain a sample that
is representative of a population. In experiments, subjects may not have been chosen randomly from a population but
must be randomly assigned to treatments to create comparable treatment groups.
Note that there are more experimental designs than the one discussed in this lesson in which the treatment groups were
independent of each other. For example, the seeds that were in the “24 hours of light” treatment were assigned to one
and only one treatment. Clearly, they could not also be subjected to another treatment. But there are studies in which
subjects undergo all of the treatments. The advantage of this type of design is to eliminate the effects that extraneous
variables may have on the response. For example, consider a study investigating whether smelling roses improves
student performance. One treatment would be to have a student wear an unscented mask and be timed on how fast he
completes a pencil and paper maze. Another would be to time how fast a student wearing a rose-scented mask
completes a pencil and paper maze. To eliminate the effect of extraneous variables (e.g., ability to do mazes, gender,
and age), having each student in the study do both treatments is a better design than assigning different students to the

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treatments, which would expose students to only one treatment each. Such a design is called a repeated measures
design. Randomizing the order in which the two masks are implemented counterbalances a potential performance
effect. Half of the students would do the experiment with the unscented mask first, and the other half would do the
experiment with the scented mask first. The idea is that the performance effect would be about the same in each
ordering and, hence, not affect the overall conclusion.

b. In an experiment, random assignment of subjects to treatments is done to create comparable treatment

groups. For example, a university biologist wants to compare the effects of two weed killers on pansies. She
chooses plants. If she applies weed killer A to the healthiest plants and B to the remaining plants,
she will not know which plants died due to the type of weed killer used and which plants subjected to weed
killer B were already on their last legs. Randomly selecting plants to receive weed killer A and then
assigning the rest to B would help ensure that the plants in each group are fairly similar.
How might the biologist go about randomly assigning plants from the candidates to receive weed killer
A? Could she be sure to get exactly plants assigned to weed killer A and plants to weed killer B by
tossing a fair coin for each plant and assigning “heads up” plants to weed killer A and “tails up” to weed killer
B? If not, suggest a method that you would use.

c. Write or say to your neighbor two things that are important about experiments.

Exercises 1–3 (19 minutes)

Have students complete the exercises with a partner or small group. Then, discuss answers as a class.

Exercises 1–3

1. For each of the following study descriptions, identify whether the study is a survey, an observational study, or an
experiment, and give a reason for your answer. For observational studies, identify the population of interest. For
experiments, identify the treatment and response variables.
a. A study investigated whether boys are quicker at learning video games than girls. Twenty randomly selected
boys and twenty randomly selected girls played a video game that they had never played before. The time it
took them to reach a certain level of expertise was recorded.

Observational study. The children were observed, and no treatment was administered to them. The
population of interest was all boys and girls who would play the video game that they had never played
before. The study was to see who is quicker at achieving a certain level of expertise.

b. As your statistics project, you collect data by posting five questions on poster board around your classroom
and recording how your classmates respond to them.

Survey. Questions were asked of classmates. Students may question whether this is really a sample survey
since all classmates participated. They were not randomly chosen. Good point. Full marks to those who
suggest that it is a census.

c. A professional sports team traded its best player. The local television station wanted to find out what the
fans thought of the trade. At the beginning of the evening news program, they asked viewers to call one
number if they favored the trade and a different number if they were opposed to the trade. At the end of the
news program, they announced that . % of callers favored the trade.

Survey. Such a sampling technique is called voluntary response. It is a very poor way of gathering data since
subjects are clearly not randomly chosen.

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d. The local department of transportation is responsible for maintaining lane and edge lines on its paved roads.
There are two new paint products on the market. Twenty comparable stretches of road are identified. Paint
A is randomly assigned to ten of the stretches of road and paint B to the other ten. The department finds that
paint B lasts longer.

Experiment. The stretches of road that are the “subjects” in this study are randomly assigned to the
treatments (the two types of paint). The response variable is the longevity of the paint. Students may note
that other factors could affect the experiment, like weather, traffic, or other lurking variables.

e. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration conducts annual studies on drivers’ seatbelt use at a
random selection of roadway sites in each state in the United States. To determine if seatbelt usage has
increased, data are analyzed over two successive years.

Observational study. No treatment is administered. The population of interest was drivers observed at
various randomly selected roadway sites. The study was to observe seatbelt usage over a two-year period.
(See Making Sense of Statistical Studies, pages 60–67.)

f. People should brush their teeth at least twice a day for at least two to three minutes with each brushing. For
a statistics class project, you ask a random number of students at your school questions concerning their
tooth brushing activities.

Survey. (See Making Sense of Statistical Studies, pages 93–101.)

g. A study determines whether taking aspirin regularly helps to prevent heart attacks. A large group of male
physicians of comparable health were randomly assigned equally to taking an aspirin every second day or to
taking a placebo. After several years, the proportion of the study participants who had suffered heart attacks
in each group was compared.

Experiment. The male physicians were randomly assigned to one of two treatments. The treatment variable
is aspirin or no aspirin administered. The response variable is whether or not the subject suffered a heart
attack. Note that this is a well-known experiment called the Physicians’ Health Study. It has its own
extensive website: http://phs.bwh.harvard.edu/.

2. For the following, is the stated conclusion reasonable? Why or why not?

A study found a positive relationship between the happiness of elderly people and the number of pets they have.
Therefore, having more pets causes elderly people to be happier.

No. This is an observational study. No treatment was administered to the elderly. Note: Consider asking students
to create the scenario as an experiment. For example, elderly people were found who had the same degree of
happiness on some “happiness scale.” Ten of them were randomly assigned to no pets, ten to one pet, ten to two
pets, and ten to three pets. Six months later, the happiness measure was taken on the people. If, for example, there
was an increase in happiness as the number of pets increased, then the conclusion that having more pets causes
elderly people to become happier would be reasonable.

3. A researcher wanted to find out whether higher levels of a certain drug given to experimental rats would decrease
the time it took them to complete a given maze to find food.
a. Why would the researcher have to carry out an experiment rather than an observational study?

To make a cause-and-effect conclusion requires an experiment to be done. Cause-and-effect cannot be

concluded from an observational study or survey.

b. Describe an experiment that the researcher might carry out based on comparable rats and three dosage
levels: , , and .

The researcher should randomly assign ten rats to dosage level (control), ten rats to dosage level ,
and ten rats to dosage level . The researcher should then record the time it takes each rat to complete
the given maze to find food.

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Closing (2 minutes)
Ask students to summarize the main ideas of the lesson with a neighbor or in writing. Use this opportunity to informally
assess comprehension of the lesson. The Lesson Summary below offers some important ideas that should be included.

Lesson Summary
There are three major types of statistical studies: observational studies, surveys, and experiments.
An observational study records the values of variables for members of a sample.
A survey is a type of observational study that gathers data by asking people a number of
questions.
An experiment assigns subjects to treatments for the purpose of seeing what effect the
treatments have on some response.
To avoid bias in observational studies and surveys, it is important to select subjects randomly.
Cause-and-effect conclusions cannot be made in observational studies or surveys.
In an experiment, it is important to assign subjects to treatments randomly in order to make cause-and-
effect conclusions.

Exit Ticket (5 minutes)

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Name Date

Lesson 12: Types of Statistical Studies

Exit Ticket

Is the following an observational study or an experiment? Explain your answer.

Also, if it is an experiment, then identify the treatment variable and the response variable in the context of the problem.
If it is an observational study, identify the population of interest.
1. A study is done to see how high soda will erupt when mint candies are dropped into two-liter bottles of soda. You
want to compare using one mint candy, five mint candies, and 10 mint candies. You design a cylindrical mechanism,
which drops the desired number of mint candies all at once. You have 15 bottles of soda to use. You randomly
assign five bottles into which you drop one candy, five into which you drop five candies, and five into which you
drop 10 candies. For each bottle, you record the height of the eruption created after the candies are dropped into
it.

2. You want to see if fifth-grade boys or fifth-grade girls are faster at solving Ken-Ken puzzles. You randomly select
twenty fifth-grade boys and twenty fifth-grade girls from fifth graders in your school district. You time and record
how long it takes each student to solve the same Ken-Ken puzzle correctly.

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

Is the following an observational study or an experiment? Explain your answer.

Also, if it is an experiment, then identify the treatment variable and the response variable in the context of the problem.
If it is an observational study, identify the population of interest.

1. A study is done to see how high soda will erupt when mint candies are dropped into two-liter bottles of soda. You
want to compare using one mint candy, five mint candies, and mint candies. You design a cylindrical mechanism,
which drops the desired number of mint candies all at once. You have bottles of soda to use. You randomly
assign five bottles into which you drop one candy, five into which you drop five candies, and five into which you
drop candies. For each bottle, you record the height of the eruption created after the candies are dropped into
it.

Experiment. There are three treatments: one, five, and ten mint candies that constitute the treatment variable. The
bottles were randomly assigned to the treatments. The response variable is the height the soda erupts.

2. You want to see if fifth-grade boys or fifth-grade girls are faster at solving Ken-Ken puzzles. You randomly select
twenty fifth-grade boys and twenty fifth-grade girls from fifth graders in your school district. You time and record
how long it takes each student to solve the same Ken-Ken puzzle correctly.

Observational study. Students are randomly selected from the population of fifth-grade boys and girls. The
population of interest is the fifth-grade boys and girls in your school district. The study is to observe whether boys or
girls are faster at solving Ken-Ken puzzles. No treatment was administered to the students.

Problem Set Sample Solutions

1. State if the following is an observational study, a survey, or an experiment, and give a reason for your answer.

Linda wanted to know if it is easier for students to memorize a list of common three-letter words (such as fly, pen,
and red) than a list of three-letter nonsense words (such as vir, zop, and twq). She randomly selected students
from all tenth graders in her district. She put blue and red chips in a jar, and without looking, each student
chose a chip. Those with red chips were given the list of common words; those with blue chips were given the list of
nonsense words. She gave all students one minute to memorize their lists. After the minute, she collected the lists
and asked the students to write down all the words that they could remember. She recorded the number of correct
words recalled.

Experiment. The students were randomly assigned to memorize a list of common words or a list of nonsense words.
There were two treatments—common words and nonsense words. The response variable is the number of correct
words recalled.

2. State if the following is an observational study, a survey, or an experiment, and give a reason for your answer.

Ken wants to compare how many hours a week that sixth graders spend doing mathematics homework to how
many hours a week that eleventh graders spend doing mathematics homework. He randomly selects ten sixth
graders and ten eleventh graders and records how many hours each student spent on mathematics homework in a
certain week.

Observational study. Students were randomly selected from the two populations of interest. But no treatment was
administered. The population of interest is sixth graders and eleventh graders. The study was to observe the
number of hours spent on mathematics homework in a certain week.

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3. Suppose that in your health class you read two studies on the relationship between eating breakfast and success in
school for elementary school children. Both studies concluded that eating breakfast causes elementary school
children to be successful in school.
a. Suppose that one of the studies was an observational study. Describe how you would recognize that they
had conducted an observational study. Were the researchers correct in their causal conclusion?

Possible answer: The researchers had gone to several elementary schools in a district and randomly sampled
many students. They determined whether or not the students ate breakfast on a regular basis and had the
district provide the students’ academic performance (names of students were withheld). Their findings were
not causal since the study was an observational one. The students were not randomly assigned to a
treatment (eating or not eating breakfast).

b. Suppose that one of the studies was an experiment. Describe how you would recognize that they had
conducted an experiment. Were the researchers correct in their causal conclusion?

Possible answer: The researchers had found students of comparable abilities. They randomly assigned
of them to eat breakfast for the academic year and the other to not eat breakfast. After a year,
academic achievement was determined for each student. The conclusion was causal since random
assignment constituted an experiment. (Note that there is an ethical issue involved in the treatment of
keeping breakfast from one group of students.)

4. Data from a random sample of students in a school district showed a positive relationship between reading score
on a standardized reading exam and shoe size. Can it be concluded that having bigger feet causes one to have a
higher reading score? Explain your answer.

No. This is an observational study. The main lurking variable is that age is the link between reading score and shoe
size.

Use the following scenarios for Problems 5–7.

A. Researchers want to determine if there is a relationship between whether or not a woman smoked during
pregnancy and the birth weight of her baby. Researchers examined records for the past five years at a large
hospital.

B. A large high school wants to know the proportion of students who currently use illegal drugs. Uniformed
police officers asked a random sample of students about their drug use.

C. A company develops a new dog food. The company wants to know if dogs would prefer its new food over the
competition’s dog food. One hundred dogs, who were food deprived overnight, were given equal amounts of
the two dog foods: the new food versus the competitor’s food. The proportion of dogs preferring the new
food versus the competitor’s was recorded.

5. Which scenario above describes an experiment? Explain why.

Scenario C is the experiment. The dogs were given a treatment, the choice between the new food and the
competitor’s food, and their preferences were recorded.

6. Which scenario describes a survey? Will the results of the survey be accurate? Why or why not?

Scenario B is the survey. No, the results would likely not be accurate because students would not answer honestly
about drug usage to a uniformed officer.

7. The remaining scenario is an observational study. Is it possible to perform an experiment to determine if a

relationship exists? Why or why not?

It is not possible to perform an experiment to determine if a relationship exists between mothers’ smoking habits
and the birth weights of babies because mothers would be randomly assigned to smoke or not smoke during
pregnancy. It is unethical, and thus illegal, to tell people that they must smoke.

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Lesson 13: Using Sample Data to Estimate a Population

Characteristic

Student Outcomes
Students differentiate between a population and a sample.
Students differentiate between a population characteristic and a sample statistic.
Students recognize statistical questions that are answered by estimating a population mean or a population
proportion.

Lesson Notes
This lesson reviews and extends students’ previous work from Grade 7 Module 5 Lessons 18–20. The topics covered in
this lesson include the distinction between a population and a sample and between population characteristics and
sample statistics. Population characteristics of interest are the mean and the proportion. Because generalizing from a
sample to a population requires a random sample, selecting a random sample using a random number table (or
calculator if available) is also reviewed. Students new to the curriculum may need extra support in understanding review
topics and using random number tables.

Classwork
Example 1 (5 minutes): Population and Sample Scaffolding:
Let students answer the questions posed in the example and then share their If students have trouble
responses with a neighbor. Then, have them answer the following in writing: differentiating between a
population and a sample, use a
What is a population? relevant example from class.
A population is the entire set of subjects in which there is an interest. The principal of our school is
What is a sample? interested in determining the
average number of days
A sample is a part of the population from which information (data) is
students are absent.
gathered, often for the purpose of generalizing from the sample to
the population. The population being studied is
all of the students enrolled at
When students think of a population and sample, they likely think only of people. the school.
Convey to students that populations and samples are not always just composed of He could use the daily
people. Provide other examples of populations and samples. In biology, the subjects attendance recorded for our
of interest could be plants or insects. In psychology, the subjects could be rats or math class as a sample.
mice. Television sets could be the subjects in a study to determine brand quality.
Whether a set of people or objects is a population or a sample depends on the context of the situation. For instance, if
the players on a specific baseball team were studied to determine, for example, the team’s most valuable player for that
year, then that team’s players would be considered a population. There would be no need to generalize beyond that set
of players. But in a study concerning the whole league, those players could be considered a sample.

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Example 1: Population and Sample

Answer the following questions, and then share your responses with a neighbor.

a. A team of scientists wants to determine the average length and weight of fish in Lake Lucerne. Name a
sample that can be used to help answer their question.

Answers will vary. The scientists could spend one day catching fish and then record the length and weight of
each fish caught. The fish measured that day form a sample of the total fish population in the lake.

b. Golf balls from different manufacturers are tested to determine which brand travels the farthest. What is the
population being studied?

The population is all golf balls made by the manufacturers.

Exercise 1 (5–7 minutes)

The Gettysburg Address is mentioned in Exercise 1(g) and on the Exit Ticket and is the focus of Example 3. Remind
students that the Gettysburg Address is a famous speech given by President Abraham Lincoln at the dedication of the
Soldier’s National Cemetery in Gettysburg, PA, during the American Civil War in 1863. Let students work independently
and confirm their answers with a neighbor.

Exercise 1

For each of the following, does the group described constitute a population or a sample? Or could it be considered to be
either a population or a sample? Explain your answer.

a. The animals that live in Yellowstone National Park

Population. The subjects are all the animals that live in Yellowstone National Park.

b. The first-run movies released last week that were shown at the local theater complex last weekend

The subjects are first-run movies. If all of those released last week were acquired by our local theater
management and were shown last weekend, then the first-run movies released last week would be
considered a population. If our local theater management chose some of the first-run movies, then they
would be a sample.

c. People who are asked how they voted in an exit poll

If all of the people who exited the polling place were asked how they voted, then they would be considered
the population of people who exited a certain polling place on a certain day. If, however, only some of them
were asked how they voted, then they would be considered a sample.

d. Some cars on the lot of the local car dealer

Sample. For example, a customer might only be interested in two-door models.

e. The words of the Gettysburg Address

Population. Note that, the number of words varies depending on what version of the address is used. For
example, “can not” is two words whereas “cannot” is one.

f. The colors of pencils available in a -count packet of colored pencils

Population. The colors available in the packet constitute the population of colors.

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g. The students from your school who attended your school’s soccer game yesterday

If the entire student body attended the game, then the students who attended the game would be considered
a population. If just some of the student body attended, then they would be considered a sample of students
at the school.

Example 2 (5 minutes): Representative Sample

For a sample result to be generalized to the population from which the sample was taken, the sample values need to be
representative of the population.
Explain why the scientists from Example 1 have to use a sample of fish instead of studying the whole
population.
It would be impossible to measure the length and weight of every fish in the lake.
Give students a moment to think about and respond to the question posed in the example. Ask students to share their
answers for a whole-class discussion.
There is no way to guarantee that a sample exactly reflects characteristics of the population. Point out that one way that
is likely to result in a representative sample is to make sure that everyone in the population has the same chance of
getting into the sample. Random selection accomplishes this. Students often think of random selection as haphazard
selection. So, emphasize that random selection is a formal procedure that must be followed. If a population is small
enough, then number each individual (person or object) in the population from 1 to as many as there are, and then use
random numbers from a calculator or from a random digit table to select the individuals for the sample.
Note that if a table is used, then the number of digits to use is the number of digits in the population size (e.g., a district
with 2,446 students requires each number to have four digits). The number 1 would be 0001, and the number 240
would be 0240. The advantage of using a calculator with a random number generator key is that leading zeros are not
used. For example, to generate 35 random numbers from a population of 2,446, the typical syntax would be random
(1, 2446, 35).
If students have access to graphing calculators, demonstrate how random numbers can be generated using technology.
Calculator note: To generate random integers on a TI-83 or TI-84 calculator, go to the MATH menu, and highlight PRB.
Choose option 5: randInt. For example, to generate 30 random integers from a population of 314, use the syntax
randInt(1, 314, 30).

Example 2: Representative Sample

If a sample is taken for the purpose of generalizing to a population, the sample must be representative of the population.
In other words, it must be similar to the population even though it is smaller than the population. For example, suppose
you are the campaign manager for your friend who is running for senior class president. You would like to know what
proportion of students would vote for her if the election was held today. The class is too big to ask everyone (
students). What would you do?

Comment on whether or not each of the following sampling procedures should be used. Explain why or why not.

a. Poll everyone in your friend’s math class.

This may not be the best option because everyone in the class may be biased toward your friend. For
example, your friend may be great at math and help a lot of students prepare for tests. Everyone may look at
her favorably.

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b. Assign every student in the senior class a number from to . Then, use a random number generator to
select students to poll.

This is a good option because it ensures that the sample looks like the rest of the senior class.

c. Ask every student who is going through the lunch line in the cafeteria who they will vote for.

Answers may vary. This may or may not be a good option. The students going through the lunch line might
be freshmen, sophomores, or juniors who do not vote for senior class president, so their opinions do not
matter. However, if only seniors in the lunch line are asked how they will vote, this could be a good sample of
the senior class.

Exercise 2 (3–4 minutes)

This exercise reviews use of a random number table that students encountered in Grade 7. If students have access to
MP.5
graphing calculators or appropriate software, random numbers can be generated using technology. If time allows,
students should explain both procedures. If students do not have access to a table of random numbers, display the
following line of random numbers on the front board of the classroom for students to use.
54580 81507 27102 54537 55894 33006 04229 91828
Let students work in small groups to complete the exercise. Assist students who are new to the curriculum and have not
used this type of table before.

Exercise 2

There is no procedure that guarantees a representative sample. But the best procedure to obtain a representative
sample is one that gives every different possible sample an equal chance to be chosen. The sample resulting from such a
procedure is called a random sample.
Suppose that you want to randomly select employees from a group of employees.
Explain how to use a random number table or a calculator with a random number generator to choose different
numbers at random and include the students with these numbers in the sample.

Random number generator: Assign each employee a number from to . Then, generate random numbers from
the random number generator. If there are any duplicate numbers, generate additional numbers as needed.
Random number table: To do so, you could number all the employees from to . Then, you could use a random
number table. Any three-digit number beyond is ignored, and any duplicated three-digit number is ignored. The
starting point on a random number table does not matter. For the purposes of this example, start at the far left. For
example, from the following line of random digits, the first four employees randomly selected would be those with
identification numbers , , , and .

Example 3 (3–5 minutes): Population Characteristics and Sample Statistics

MP.1 A statistical study begins with asking a question that can be answered by data. Students should be familiar with this
since it was the first Common Core Statistics Standard in Grade 6.
Let students work independently on the example and then share their responses with a neighbor. Then ask students to
summarize the following summary measures in their own words:
What is a population characteristic?
A summary measure calculated using all the individuals in a population is called a population
characteristic. A population proportion and a population mean are two examples of population
characteristics.

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What is a sample statistic?

If the summary measure is calculated using data from a random sample, it is called a sample statistic.
For example, a sample proportion or a sample mean are sample statistics.
A summary measure is used to analyze the data and arrive at a conclusion. Population summary measures are called
population characteristics (or parameters), and sample summary measures are called statistics. Examples include a total
(e.g., gross movie receipts), a mean (e.g., average time to run a mile), a proportion (e.g., the proportion of voters who
favor a particular candidate), and a correlation coefficient (e.g., the correlation coefficient for the amount of vitamin C
taken and the number of colds contracted).

Example 3: Population Characteristics and Sample Statistics

A statistical study begins with a question of interest that can be answered by data. Depending on the study, data could
be collected from all individuals in the population or from a random sample of individuals selected from the population.
Read through the following, and identify which of the summary measures represents a population characteristic and
which represents a sample statistic. Explain your reasoning for each.

Suppose the population of interest is the words of the Gettysburg Address. There are of them (depending on the
version).

a. The proportion of nouns in all words of the Gettysburg Address

It is a population characteristic because it is determined from all of the words (the entire population) of the
Gettysburg Address.

b. The proportion of nouns or the proportion of words containing the letter e in a random sample of words
taken from the Gettysburg Address

It is a sample statistic because it is determined from a sample of the words (the entire population) of the
Gettysburg Address.

c. The mean length of the words in a random sample of words taken from the Gettysburg Address

It is a sample statistic because it is determined from a sample of the words (the entire population) of the
Gettysburg Address.

d. The proportion of all words in the Gettysburg Address that contain the letter e

It is a population characteristic because it is determined from all of the words (the entire population) of the
Gettysburg Address.

e. The mean length of all words in the Gettysburg Address

It is a population characteristic because it is determined from all of the words (the entire population) of the
Gettysburg Address.

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Exercise 3 (7–9 minutes)

Let students work in small groups. If time allows, let each group present one of their answers.

Exercise 3

For the following items of interest, describe an appropriate population, population characteristic, Scaffolding:
sample, and sample statistic. Explain your answer. If students struggle with the
Answers will vary. The following are examples of sample responses: exercise, provide the following
on the front board as a sample
response to use as a guide.
a. Time it takes students to run a quarter mile
For example, an item of
Population: all students in the eleventh grade at your school
interest is SAT scores.
Population characteristic: mean time to run a quarter mile for all students in the The population might be
eleventh grade at your school
all students in your school
Sample: a random selection of students in the eleventh grade at your school who take the SAT exam in
Sample statistic: mean time to run a quarter mile for the sampled students in the mathematics this year.
eleventh grade at your school One population
characteristic is the
b. National forests that contain bald eagle nests proportion of all students
who take the mathematics
Population: all national forests in the United States
exam this year who score
Population characteristic: the proportion of all national forests in the U.S. that 700 or higher, and
contain bald eagle nests another is the mean score
Sample: a random selection of national forests in the U.S. of all students who take
the mathematics exam this
Sample statistic: the proportion of the sampled national forests in the U.S. that
contain bald eagle nests year.
A sample of 40 students
might be selected from
c. Curfew time of boys compared to girls
those who take the SAT
Population: all boys and girls in the eleventh grade at your school exam this year.
Population characteristic: the difference in mean curfew time of all eleventh grade Two examples of sample
boys at your school and the mean curfew time of all eleventh grade girls at your statistics are the
school
proportion of the 40
Sample: a random selection of some boys and girls sampled from the eleventh grade students who score 700 or
at your school higher and the mean score
Sample statistic: the difference in mean curfew time of the sampled eleventh grade for the 40 students who
boys at your school and the mean curfew time of the sampled eleventh grade girls at take the SAT exam in
your school mathematics this year.

d. Efficiency of electric cars

Population: all electric cars currently being marketed

Population characteristic: the mean number of kilowatt-hours to drive miles for all electric cars currently
being marketed

Sample: a random selection of electric cars currently being marketed

Sample statistic: the mean number of kilowatt-hours to drive miles for the sampled electric cars
currently being marketed

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Exercise 4 (5–7 minutes)

Let students continue to work in small groups. Several statistical questions about the population of students at the
school or all students in a particular grade (e.g., the eleventh grade) are suggested. Discuss the questions with the whole
class. Consider asking students to add questions to this list. Ask each group to select a question and write a paragraph
as directed in the exercise. After three to five minutes, allow as many groups as possible to discuss their paragraphs.
Focus on each group’s responses that indicate how the sample is obtained and how the sample mean or proportion is
used to generalize to the students in the population (e.g., the whole school or the students in the eleventh grade).

Exercise 4
Consider the following questions:
What proportion of eleventh graders at our high school are taking at least one advanced placement course?
What proportion of eleventh graders at our high school have a part-time job?
What is the typical number of hours an eleventh grader at our high school studies outside of school hours on a
weekday (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday)?
What is the typical time (in minutes) that students at our high school spend getting to school?
What is the proportion of students at our high school who plan to attend a college or technical school after
graduation?
What is the typical amount of time (in hours per week) that students at our high school are involved in
community service?

Select one of these questions (or a different statistical question that has been approved by your teacher). Working with
your group, write a paragraph that:
States the statistical question of interest pertaining to the students in the population for the statistical
question selected.
Identifies a population characteristic of interest.
Identifies the appropriate statistic based on a sample of students.
States what property your sample must have for you to be able to use its results to generalize to all students in
your high school.
Includes the details on how you would select your sample.

Possible responses for two of the above questions: We are interested in answering the statistical question, “What
proportion of eleventh graders at our high school are taking at least one advanced placement course?” We would go to
our high school counselors and obtain a list of the eleventh graders at our high school. We would number the
students from to . We decided to randomly select students for our sample. To do so, we would find a random
number table, choose a place to start, and then generate different random numbers between and . If we find
that of the students in the sample are taking at least one AP course this year, we would use that information to
calculate the sample proportion of students who are taking at least one AP course. Since our sample was a random
sample, we can generalize our estimate to the population of eleventh graders at our school and estimate that the
proportion of all eleventh graders who are taking at least one AP course this year is . .

Also consider the following: We are interested in the question about community service. The statistical question is, “What
is the typical amount of time (in hours per week) that students at our school are involved in community service?” We
would go to our school’s guidance department and ask them to help us. The guidance counselor has an alphabetical list of
the , students enrolled in our school. Listed students are numbered from to . We decided we would
select students at random for our study. Using our graphing calculator, we would obtain different random numbers
between and . We would ask the guidance counselor to identify the student associated with each of the
numbers. We would also ask for the location of the student during the last period of the day, so we could quickly ask them
a question before leaving school. We would ask, “How many hours of community service did you complete last week?”
We would find the mean of the numbers reported by the students in our sample. The mean is our statistic for this
study. If our sample was randomly selected, we can generalize to the population of all students at the school, and we
would use the sample mean to estimate the mean number of hours of community service per week for students at our
school. For example, if the mean of the randomly selected students is . hours, we would say that our best estimate
of the mean number of hours students in our school are involved in community service is . hours per week.

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Closing (2 minutes)
Present students with a scenario, and ask them to critique whether or not the sample chosen is representative
MP.3 of the population and provides a good estimate for a population characteristic. Allow for multiple responses
and arguments. For example, suppose that an elementary school principal is interested in how many hours of
sleep students get each night. He decides to use Mr. Ross’s fifth-grade class as a sample. Do you think that
this sample will provide a good estimate of the population characteristic (average number of hours of sleep for
all students in the school)? Explain.
Answers will vary. This may not be a representative sample. Older students may require less sleep than
younger students. The estimate may be too low and not represent the sleep times of students in the
lower grades.
Ask students to summarize the main ideas of the lesson in writing or with a neighbor. Use this as an opportunity to
informally assess comprehension of the lesson. The Lesson Summary below offers some important ideas that should be
included.

Lesson Summary
We refer to summary measures calculated using data from an entire population as population characteristics. We
refer to summary measures calculated using data from a sample as sample statistics. To generalize from a sample
to the corresponding population, it is important that the sample be a random sample from the population. A
random sample is one that is selected in a way that gives every different possible sample an equal chance of being
chosen.

Exit Ticket (5 minutes)

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Name Date

Lesson 13: Using Sample Data to Estimate a Population

Characteristic

Exit Ticket

Indicate whether each of the following is a summary measure from a population or from a sample. Choose the one that
is more realistically the case. If it is from a population, identify the population characteristic. If it is from a sample,
identify the sample statistic. Explain your reasoning.
a. 88% of the more than 300 million automobile tires discarded per year are recycled or used for fuel.

b. The mean number of words that contain the letter e in the Gettysburg Address

c. 64% of respondents in a recent poll indicated that they favored building a proposed highway in their town.

Lesson 13: Using Sample Data to Estimate a Population Characteristic 203

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

Indicate whether each of the following is a summary measure from a population or from a sample. Choose the one that is
more realistically the case. If it is from a population, identify the population characteristic. If it is from a sample, identify
the sample statistic. Explain your reasoning.

a. % of the more than million automobile discarded tires per year are recycled or used for fuel.

Population. The statement concerns all discarded tires in a year.

Characteristic: percentage of all discarded tires that are recycled or used for fuel

b. The mean number of words that contain the letter e in the Gettysburg Address

Population. The statement refers to the entire document.

Characteristic: mean number of words that contain the letter “e”

c. % of respondents in a recent poll indicated that they favored building a proposed highway in their town.

Sample. Not everyone in the town contributed.

Characteristic: percentage of respondents who favor the highway construction

Problem Set Sample Solutions

Use this space to describe specific details about the Problem Set for teacher reference.

1. In the following, identify whether the subjects being measured are the sample or the population. In some cases,
they could be considered a sample or a population. Explain each answer.

Subjects What Is Being Measured Sample or Population? Explain

Sample
Some students in your class Number of books in backpack Only some of the students in the class were in
the study.
Sample
Realistically a population does not make sense
AA batteries of a certain brand Lifetime
since if all the batteries are tested, there
would be none left.
Sample
Birds in Glacier National Park Number of species It would be impossible to catch and catalog
every bird in a national park.
Population
Number absent or present
Students in your school All students in your school are being recorded
today
as being present or being absent today.
Population
Words in the Constitution of
Whether a noun or not All the words in the Constitution are being
the U.S.
considered.
Sample
Americans of voting age Opinion on an issue It is unrealistic to think that all Americans of
voting age could be asked their opinions.

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2. For the following items of interest, describe an appropriate population, a population characteristic, a sample, and a
sample statistic.
a. Whether or not a driver is speeding in your school zone during school hours in a day

Answers will vary. A sample response is given.

Population: all drivers who drive through your school zone during school hours on a certain day

Population characteristic: proportion of all drivers who exceed the speed limit in your school zone during
school hours on a certain day

Sample: some drivers who drive in your school zone from noon to 1:00 p.m. on a certain day

Sample statistic: proportion of the sampled drivers who exceed the speed limit in your school zone from noon
to 1:00 p.m. on a certain day

b. Seatbelt usage of men compared to women

Answers will vary. A sample response is given.

Population: all men and women drivers in the state of New York

Population characteristic: the difference in the proportion of all male drivers in the state of New York who
always wear a seatbelt and the proportion of all female drivers in the state of New York who always wear a
seatbelt

Sample: some men and women drivers in the state of New York

Sample statistic: the difference in the proportion of the male drivers sampled who always wear a seatbelt
and the proportion of the female drivers sampled who always wear a seatbelt

c. Impact of a new antidepressant on people with severe headaches

Answers will vary. A sample response is given.

Population: all people in New York with severe headaches

Population characteristic: the mean time it takes the new antidepressant to eliminate the headaches for all
people in New York with severe headaches

Sample: some people in New York with severe headaches

Sample statistic: the mean time it takes the new antidepressant to eliminate the headaches for the sampled
people in New York with severe headaches

3. What are the identification numbers for ten students chosen at random from a population of students based on
the following string of random digits? Start at the left.

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Table of Random Digits

6 6 7 2 8 0 0 8 4 0 0 4 6 0 3 2 2 4 6 8
8 0 3 1 1 1 1 2 7 0 1 9 1 2 7 1 3 3 5 3
5 3 5 7 3 6 3 1 7 2 5 5 1 4 7 1 6 5 6 5
9 1 1 9 2 8 3 0 3 6 7 7 4 7 5 9 8 1 8 3
9 0 2 9 9 7 4 6 3 6 6 3 7 4 2 7 0 0 1 9
8 1 4 6 4 6 8 2 8 9 5 5 2 9 6 2 5 3 0 3
4 1 1 9 7 0 7 2 9 0 9 7 0 4 6 2 3 1 0 9
9 9 2 7 1 3 2 9 0 3 9 0 7 5 6 7 1 7 8 7
3 4 2 2 9 1 9 0 7 8 1 6 2 5 3 9 0 9 1 0
2 7 3 9 5 9 9 3 2 9 3 9 1 9 0 5 5 1 4 2
0 2 5 4 0 8 1 7 0 7 1 3 0 4 3 0 6 4 4 4
8 6 0 5 4 8 8 2 7 7 0 1 0 1 7 1 3 5 3 4
4 2 6 4 5 2 4 2 6 1 7 5 6 6 4 0 8 4 1 2
4 4 9 8 7 3 4 3 8 2 9 1 5 3 5 9 8 9 2 9
6 4 8 0 0 0 4 2 3 8 1 8 4 0 9 5 0 9 0 4
3 2 3 8 4 8 8 6 2 9 1 0 1 9 9 3 0 7 3 5
6 6 7 2 8 0 0 8 4 0 0 4 6 0 3 2 2 4 6 8
8 0 3 1 1 1 1 2 7 0 1 9 1 2 7 1 3 3 5 3
5 3 5 7 3 6 3 1 7 2 5 5 1 4 7 1 6 5 6 5
9 1 1 9 2 8 3 0 3 6 7 7 4 7 5 9 8 1 8 3
9 0 2 9 9 7 4 6 3 6 6 3 7 4 2 7 0 0 1 9
8 1 4 6 4 6 8 2 8 9 5 5 2 9 6 2 5 3 0 3
4 1 1 9 7 0 7 2 9 0 9 7 0 4 6 2 3 1 0 9
9 9 2 7 1 3 2 9 0 3 9 0 7 5 6 7 1 7 8 7
3 4 2 2 9 1 9 0 7 8 1 6 2 5 3 9 0 9 1 0
2 7 3 9 5 9 9 3 2 9 3 9 1 9 0 5 5 1 4 2
0 2 5 4 0 8 1 7 0 7 1 3 0 4 3 0 6 4 4 4
8 6 0 5 4 8 8 2 7 7 0 1 0 1 7 1 3 5 3 4
4 2 6 4 5 2 4 2 6 1 7 5 6 6 4 0 8 4 1 2
4 4 9 8 7 3 4 3 8 2 9 1 5 3 5 9 8 9 2 9
6 4 8 0 0 0 4 2 3 8 1 8 4 0 9 5 0 9 0 4
3 2 3 8 4 8 8 6 2 9 1 0 1 9 9 3 0 7 3 5
6 6 7 2 8 0 0 8 4 0 0 4 6 0 3 2 2 4 6 8
8 0 3 1 1 1 1 2 7 0 1 9 1 2 7 1 3 3 5 3
5 3 5 7 3 6 3 1 7 2 5 5 1 4 7 1 6 5 6 5
9 1 1 9 2 8 3 0 3 6 7 7 4 7 5 9 8 1 8 3
9 0 2 9 9 7 4 6 3 6 6 3 7 4 2 7 0 0 1 9
8 1 4 6 4 6 8 2 8 9 5 5 2 9 6 2 5 3 0 3
4 1 1 9 7 0 7 2 9 0 9 7 0 4 6 2 3 1 0 9
9 9 2 7 1 3 2 9 0 3 9 0 7 5 6 7 1 7 8 7

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Lesson 14: Sampling Variability in the Sample Proportion

Student Outcomes
Students understand the term sampling variability in the context of estimating a population proportion.
Students understand that the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the sample proportion offers
insight into the accuracy of the sample proportion as an estimate of the population proportion.

Lesson Notes
This lesson and the next revisit the concept of sampling variability in the sample proportion, introduced in Grade 7
Module 5 Lessons 17–19. Students use simulation to approximate the sampling distribution of the sample proportion
and explore how to use that simulation to anticipate estimation error. In this lesson, students use a physical simulation
process. (In the next lesson, they use technology to carry out a simulation.)
Together, this and Lesson 15 should span a total of two class periods.
Materials needed:
Large bag of white dried beans
Large bag of black dried beans
Brown paper bags, each containing 60 white and 40 black dried beans
One brown paper bag with beans for each group of two students

Classwork
Example 1 (3 minutes): Polls
Read and discuss Example 1 as a class. Ask students the following question posed in the Scaffolding:
text and summarized below. Discuss their answers as a class.
For struggling students,
If you were to take a random sample of 20 Americans, how many would you poll the class asking how
predict would say that they pay a great deal attention to nutritional many pay attention to
information? calories when making
0.40(20) 8 or about 8 people lunch choices.
For advanced students,
The above answer is based on the statement that 40% of the public said they pay “a great
have them develop a
deal” of attention to nutritional information.
statistical question and
describe how it could be
answered using a poll.

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Example 1: Polls

A recent poll stated that % of Americans pay “a great deal” or a “fair amount” of attention to the nutritional
information that restaurants provide. This poll was based on a random sample of , adults living in the United
States.

The % corresponds to a proportion of . , and . is called a sample proportion. It is an estimate of the proportion
of all adults who would say they pay “a great deal” or a “fair amount” of attention to the nutritional information that
restaurants provide. If you were to take a random sample of Americans, how many would you predict would say that
they pay attention to nutritional information? In this lesson, you will investigate this question by generating distributions
of sample proportions and investigating patterns in these distributions.

Your teacher will give your group a container of dried beans. Some of the beans in the container are black. With your
classmates, you are going see what happens when you take a sample of beans from the container and use the proportion
of black beans in the sample to estimate the proportion of black beans in the container (a population proportion).

Exploratory Challenge 1/Exercises 1–9 (20 minutes)

In these exercises, students use data from a sample to estimate a population proportion and generalize from a sample to
MP.2
the population. Hand out the paper bags full of dried beans to each group of two students. Instruct each student to
take a random sample of 20 beans. (This sampling should be done with replacement.) Ideally, the class calculates
between 25 to 30 sample proportions.
While students take their random samples, draw a number line on the board. (Make the line long enough to
accommodate students’ sticky notes.) The scale on the line should range from approximately 0.1 to 0.7 in increments of
0.05.
Let students work in their groups on Exercises 1–3. After the class graph has been constructed, have students work on
Exercises 4–9 in their groups. Discuss the answers as a class.

Exploratory Challenge 1/Exercises 1–9

1. Each person in the group should randomly select a sample of beans from the container by carefully mixing all the
beans and then selecting one bean and recording its color. Replace the bean, mix the bag, and continue to select
one bean at a time until beans have been selected. Be sure to replace each bean and mix the bag before
selecting the next bean. Count the number of black beans in your sample of .

Answers will vary, but the number of black beans will center around .

2. What is the proportion of black beans in your sample of ? (Round your answer to decimal places.) This value is
called the sample proportion of black beans.

Answers will vary, but the sample proportions will center around . .

3. Write your sample proportion on a sticky note, and place the note on the number line that your teacher has drawn
on the board. Place your note above the value on the number line that corresponds to your sample proportion.

Class data will vary. One possible sampling distribution is shown below.

Lesson 14: Sampling Variability in the Sample Proportion 208

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The graph of all the students’ sample proportions is called the sampling distribution of the
samples’ proportions. This sampling distribution is an approximation of the actual sampling Scaffolding:
distribution of all possible samples of size .
Depending on the context,
the term approximate is
4. Describe the shape of the distribution. used as either a noun or a
Answers might vary, but the shape is generally mound shaped. verb (or an adjective).
For English language
5. What was the smallest sample proportion observed? learners, making it clear
that this same term can be
Answers will vary. Based on the sample graph: .
used in related but
different ways, with
6. What was the largest sample proportion observed? different linguistic
Answers will vary. Based on the sample graph: . functions, can be useful.
Choral repetition or
rehearsal and a graphic
7. What sample proportion occurred most often?
organizer may help
Answers will vary, but the sample proportion should be around . . Based on the sample students who are
graph: .
struggling.

8. Using technology, find the mean and standard deviation of the sample proportions used to construct the sampling
distribution created by the class.

Answers will vary, but the mean will be approximately . , and the standard deviation will be approximately . .

9. How does the mean of the sampling distribution compare with the population proportion of . ?

Answers will vary, but the two values should be about the same. In theory, the mean of the sampling distribution of
sample proportions is equal to the population proportion.

Example 2 (2 minutes): Sampling Variability

Pose the question in the example to the class. Allow for multiple responses. The following exercises provide students
MP.3 the opportunity to test their conjectures about treatment differences in the context of a statistical experiment:

Example 2: Sampling Variability

What do you think would happen to the sampling distribution if everyone in class took a random sample of beans
from the container? To help answer this question, you will repeat the process described in Example 1, but this time you
will draw a random sample of beans instead of .

Exploratory Challenge 2/Exercises 10–21 (15 minutes)

Let students continue to work in groups to complete the remaining exercises.

Exploratory Challenge 2/Exercises 10–21

10. Take a random sample with replacement of beans from the container. Count the number of black beans in your
sample of beans.

Answers will vary, but the number of black beans will center around .

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11. What is the proportion of black beans in your sample of ? (Round your answer to decimal places.)

Answers will vary, but the sample proportions will center around . .

12. Write your sample proportion on a sticky note, and place it on the number line that your teacher has drawn on the
board. Place your note above the value on the number line that corresponds to your sample proportion.

Class data will vary. One possible sampling distribution is shown below.

13. Describe the shape of the distribution.

Answers may vary, but the shape is generally mound shaped.

14. What was the smallest sample proportion observed?

Answers will vary. Based on the sample graph: .

15. What was the largest sample proportion observed?

Answers will vary. Based on the sample graph: .

16. What sample proportion occurred most often?

Answer will vary but will be approximately . .

17. Using technology, find the mean and standard deviation of the sample proportions used to construct the sampling
distribution created by the class.

Answers will vary, but the mean will be approximately . and the standard deviation approximately . .

18. How does the mean of the sampling distribution compare with the population proportion of . ?

Answers will vary, but the two values should be about the same. In theory, the mean of the sampling distribution of
sample proportions is equal to the population proportion.

19. How does the mean of the sampling distribution based on random samples of size compare to the mean of the
sampling distribution based on random samples of size ?

The two means are approximately the same, about . .

20. As the sample size increased from to , describe what happened to the sampling variability (standard deviation
of the distribution of sample proportions)?

The standard deviation of the distribution of the sample proportions based on a sample size of is less than the
standard deviation of the distribution of the sample proportions based on a sample size of .

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21. What do you think would happen to the variability (standard deviation) of the distribution of sample proportions if
the sample size for each sample was instead of ? Explain.

Because the standard deviation decreased as sample size increased from to , I expect that the standard
deviation will decrease further when the sample size is .

Closing (2 minutes)
Ask students to summarize the main ideas of the lesson in writing or with a neighbor. Use this as an opportunity to
informally assess comprehension of the lesson. The Lesson Summary below offers some important ideas that should be
included.

Lesson Summary
The sampling distribution of the sample proportion can be approximated by a graph of the sample proportions for
many different random samples. The mean of the sampling distribution of the sample proportions will be
approximately equal to the value of the population proportion.

As the sample size increases, the sampling variability in the sample proportion decreases; in other words, the
standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the sample proportions decreases.

Exit Ticket (3 minutes)

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Name Date

Lesson 14: Sampling Variability in the Sample Proportion

Exit Ticket

A group of eleventh graders wanted to estimate the population proportion of students in their high school who drink at
least one soda per day. Each student selected a different random sample of 30 students and calculated the proportion
that drink at least one soda per day. The dot plot below shows the sampling distribution. This distribution has a mean of
0.51 and a standard deviation of 0.09.

1. Describe the shape of the distribution.

2. What is your estimate for the proportion of all students who would report that they drink at least one soda per day?

3. If, instead of taking random samples of 30 students in the high school, the eleventh graders randomly selected
samples of size 60, describe what will happen to the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the sample
proportions.

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

A group of eleventh graders wanted to estimate the population proportion of students in their high school who drink at
least one soda per day. Each student selected a different random sample of students from the high school and
calculated the proportion that drink at least one soda per day. The dot plot below shows the sampling distribution. This
distribution has a mean of . and a standard deviation of . .

1. Describe the shape of the distribution.

Approximately symmetric centered around .

2. What is your estimate for the proportion of all students who would report that they drink at least one soda per day?

. , which is the mean of the sampling distribution

3. If, instead of taking random samples of students in the high school, the eleventh graders randomly selected
samples of size , describe what will happen to the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the sample
proportions.

The standard deviation will decrease.

Problem Set Sample Solutions

1. A class of eleventh graders wanted to estimate the proportion of all juniors and seniors at their high school with
part-time jobs after school. Each eleventh grader took a random sample of juniors and seniors and then
calculated the proportion with part-time jobs. Following are the sample proportions.

. , . , . , . , . , . , . , . , . , . , . , . , . , . , . , . , . , . , . , . ,
. , . , . , . , . , . , . , .

a. Construct a dot plot of the sample proportions.

b. Describe the shape of the distribution.

Skewed to the left

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c. Using technology, find the mean and standard deviation of the sample proportions.

Mean = .

Standard deviation = .

d. Do you think that the proportion of all juniors and seniors at the school with part-time jobs could be . ? Do
you think it could be . ? Justify your answers based on your dot plot.

It is likely that the proportion of all juniors and seniors with part-time jobs could be . since . is near
the center of the dot plot. It is unlikely that the proportion of all juniors and seniors is . since there are very
few samples with a sample proportion of . or less.

e. Suppose the eleventh graders had taken random samples of size . How would the distribution of sample
proportions based on samples of size differ from the distribution for samples of size ?

The sampling distribution would be mound shaped with approximately the same mean as the sampling
distribution based on size , but the standard deviation of the sampling distribution based on size would
be smaller than one based on samples of size .

2. A group of eleventh graders wanted to estimate the proportion of all students at their high school who suffer from
allergies. Each student in one group of eleventh graders took a random sample of students, while each student
in another group of eleventh graders each took a random sample of students. Below are the two sampling
distributions (shown as histograms) of the sample proportions of high school students who said that they suffer
from allergies. Which histogram is based on random samples of size ? Explain.

Histogram A is based on random samples of size because it has less variability than Histogram B.

Histogram A Histogram B

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3. The nurse in your school district would like to study the proportion of all high school students in the district who
usually get at least eight hours of sleep on school nights. Suppose each student in your class takes a random sample
of high school students in the district and each calculates their sample proportion of students who said that they
usually get at least eight hours of sleep on school nights. Below is a histogram of the sampling distribution.

a. Do you think that the proportion of all high school students who usually get at least eight hours of sleep on
school nights could have been . ? Do you think it could have been . ? Could it have been . ? Justify
your answers based on the histogram.

The proportion of all high school students who usually get at least eight hours of sleep is likely around .
since that is near the center of the sampling distribution. The proportion could be . since that is still close
to the center of the distribution. It is unlikely that the proportion of all high school students is . since
none of the samples produced sample proportions as large as . .

b. Suppose students had taken random samples of size . How would the distribution of sample proportions
based on samples of size differ from those of size ?

The means of the two distributions would be relatively close, but the standard deviation of the distribution
based on samples of size would be smaller than the standard deviation of the distribution based on
sample sizes of .

Lesson 14: Sampling Variability in the Sample Proportion 215

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Lesson 15: Sampling Variability in the Sample Proportion

Student Outcomes
Students understand the term sampling variability in the context of estimating a population proportion.
Students understand that the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the sample proportion offers
insight into the accuracy of the sample proportion as an estimate of the population proportion.

Lesson Notes
This lesson has the same Student Outcomes as Lesson 14, which investigated the effect of sample size on the variability
of a sampling distribution of sample proportions. This lesson uses technology—either the website
www.rossmanchance.com/applets/CoinTossing/CoinToss.html or a graphing calculator—to construct a sampling
distribution of the proportion of heads for a different number of coin flips. Students are asked to describe the effect on
the variability of the sampling distribution as the number of flips increases.

Classwork
Example 1 (5 minutes)
Introduce the following scenario to students. Before showing the steps of the simulation, discuss how students could
use the beans used in Lesson 14 to design a simulation. For this scenario, 50% of the beans would be black. Students
would then randomly select 40 beans (with replacement) to calculate the proportion of black beans in the sample.
It is also important that students understand that they are assuming the principal’s claim is correct. They are trying to
MP.1
determine if a sample proportion of 0.40 is a likely result when the population proportion is 0.50.

Example 1

A high school principal claims that % of the school’s students walk to school in the morning. A student attempts to
verify the principal’s claim by taking a random sample of students and asking them if they walk to school in the
morning. Sixteen of the sampled students say they usually walk to school in the morning, giving a sample proportion of
= . , which seems to dispel the principal’s claim of %. But could the principal be correct that the proportion of
all students who walk to school is %?
MP.3 a. Make a conjecture about the answer.

b. Develop a plan for how to respond.

Help the student make a decision on the principal’s claim by investigating what kind of sample proportions
you would expect to see if the principal’s claim of % is true. You will do this by using technology to
simulate the flipping of a coin times.

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At this point, teachers may choose to explain how to use technology to perform the simulation. Depending on available
technology, students can use either a graphing calculator or a coin-tossing applet to perform simulations. Using the
applet may save time during the lesson, allowing opportunities for more class discussion.

Using the Coin-Tossing Applet at the Website:

1. Use the Coin-Tossing Simulation— Go to www.rossmanchance.com/applets/CoinTossing/CoinToss.html.

Rossman/Chance Applet Collection.
2. For this example: Enter 0.5 for the
probability of heads, 40 for the
number of tosses, and 1 for the
number of repetitions. Then, click
on “Toss Coins.”

Using a TI-83 or TI-84 Graphing Calculator:

The following steps show how to use a TI-83 or TI-84
Graphing Calculator to simulate the flipping of a coin 40
times and then to calculate the sample proportion:

1. Select MATH, and highlight <PRB>.

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2. Choose: 7: randBin(.

3. Input: randBin(40,0.5)/40.

4. Press ENTER. In this example, the 0.525 is the proportion of heads that
were observed in the simulated flip of 40 coins.

Exploratory Challenge 1/Exercises 1–9 (15 minutes)

Students should work independently or in pairs on Exercises 1–3. As students report their proportions of heads, enter
the reported proportions into a list if using a graphing calculator or into a list using computer-graphing software. Once
all students have reported two sample proportions, construct a graph (histogram or dot plot) of the class data. Students
should work on Exercises 4–9 in groups. Discuss answers as a class.
Even though each student could construct his own sampling distribution, in this first example, each student is generating
just two sample proportions of heads. This way, it mirrors what was done in Lesson 14. The sampling distribution is
constructed using sample proportions from the entire class.

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Exploratory Challenge 1/Exercises 1–9

In Exercises 1–9, students should assume that the principal is correct that % of the population of students walk to
school. Designate heads to represent a student who walks to school.

1. Simulate flips of a fair coin. Record your observations in the space below.

Answers will vary. Sample response:

T T T H H H T H H H T T T H T T H H H

H T H H T H T H T T H T T T H T H T T

T T

2. What is the sample proportion of heads in your sample of ? Report this value to your teacher.

Answers will vary. Sample response: = .

3. Repeat Exercises 1 and 2 to obtain a second sample of coin flips.

Answers will vary.

Your teacher will display a graph of all the students’ sample proportions of heads.

The following is an example of a sampling distribution of sample proportions of heads in flips of a coin:

4. Describe the shape of the distribution.

Answers will vary. The shape of the distribution shown above is slightly skewed.

5. What was the smallest sample proportion observed?

Answers will vary. In the sample graph, .

6. What was the largest sample proportion observed?

Answers will vary. In the sample graph, .

7. Estimate the center of the distribution of sample proportions.

Answers will vary. In the sample graph, about .

Your teacher will report the mean and standard deviation of the sampling distribution created by the class.

Answers will vary. The mean will be approximately . , and the standard deviation will be approximately . . From
the sample graph, the mean is . , and the standard deviation is . .

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8. How does the mean of the sampling distribution compare with the population proportion of . ?

Answers will vary. From the sample response, the population proportion of . is very close to the mean of the
sampling distribution.

9. Recall that a student took a random sample of students and found that the sample proportion of students who
walk to school was . . Would this have been a surprising result if the actual population proportion was . as
the principal claims?

Answers will vary. Based on the sample responses, the value of . is about one standard deviation from the
mean. There were quite a few samples in the simulation that resulted in sample proportions that were . or
smaller. Hence, a value of . would not be a surprising result if the population was . .

Example 2 (3 minutes): Sampling Variability

Give students a moment to think, write, and/or speak about the question posed in the example.

Example 2: Sampling Variability

What do you think would happen to the sampling distribution you constructed in the previous exercises had everyone in
class taken a random sample of size instead of ? Justify your answer. This will be investigated in the following
exercises.

Answers will vary. The results would be more accurate because there are more samples.

Now, explain how students can generate their own sampling distributions using technology. The steps are slightly
different from before as students are now performing the simulation 40 times. Again, teachers should consider using
the applet in order to save time.

Using the Coin-Tossing Applet at the Website:

MP.3 1. Use the Coin-Tossing Simulation— Go to www.rossmanchance.com/applets/CoinTossing/CoinToss.html.

Rossman/Chance Applet Collection.
2. For this example, enter 0.5 for the
probability of heads, 80 for the
number of tosses, and 40 for the
number of repetitions. Also, select
proportion of heads and summary
statistics.

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Using a TI-83 or TI-84 Graphing Calculator:

The following steps show how to use a TI-83 or TI-84
Graphing Calculator to simulate the flipping of a coin 80
times to calculate the sample proportion, repeating the
process for a total of 40 times:

1. Select MATH, and highlight <PRB>.

2. Choose: 7: randBin(.

MP.3

3. Input: randBin(80,0.5,40)/80 1.

Use the randBin operation, and input 80 for the

sample size and 0.5 for the population proportion,
divide by 80, store the results in L1, and then repeat
40 times.

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4. Press ENTER, and view the results in L1.

To view the relevant statistics, go to the STAT menu,
and highlight <CALC>.
Choose option 1: 1–Var Stats.

5. Students may also choose to view a histogram of

the sample proportions in L1.
Go to STAT PLOT. <2nd> and <Y=>
Make sure Plot 1 is turned on, and highlight the
MP.3 histogram.
The following window is useful in viewing the
histogram.

Exploratory Challenge 2/Exercises 10–22 (15 minutes)

In this set of exercises, students use technology to carry out simulations in order to study sampling variability. Students
should work independently or in pairs on Exercises 10–22.

Exploratory Challenge 2/Exercises 10–22

MP.5
10. Use technology and simulate coin flips. Calculate the proportion of heads. Record your results in the space
below.

Answers will vary. Sample response: = .

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11. Repeat flipping a coin times until you have recorded a total of sample proportions.

Answers will vary. See Exercise 12 for a dot plot of the sampling distribution of the proportion of heads in flips of
a coin.

12. Construct a dot plot of the sample proportions.

13. Describe the shape of the distribution.

Answers will vary. From the sample response, the distribution is symmetric and mound shaped.

14. What was the smallest proportion of heads observed?

Answers will vary. From the sample response, .

15. What was the largest proportion of heads observed?

Answers will vary. From the sample response, .

MP.5
16. Using technology, find the mean and standard deviation of the distribution of sample proportions.

Answers will vary. The mean will be approximately . , and the standard deviation will be approximately . .
In the example above, the mean is . , and the standard deviation is . .

17. Compare your results with the others in your group. Did you have similar means and standard deviations?

Answers will vary. All the groups should have similar means and standard deviations.

18. How does the mean of the sampling distribution based on simulated flips of a coin (Exercise 1) compare to the
mean of the sampling distribution based on simulated coin flips?

Both of the means will be approximately equal to . .

19. Describe what happened to the sampling variability (standard deviation) of the distribution of sample proportions
as the number of simulated coin flips increased from to .

The standard deviation decreased as the number of coin flips went from to .

20. What do you think would happen to the variability (standard deviation) of the distribution of sample proportions if
the sample size for each sample was instead of ? Explain.

The standard deviation will decrease as the sample size increases.

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21. Recall that a student took a random sample of students and found that the sample proportion of students who
walk to school was . . If the student had taken a random sample of students instead of , would this have
been a surprising result if the actual population proportion was . as the principal claims?

Answers will vary. The value of . is about two standard deviations from the mean. Only two of the simulated
samples resulted in a sample proportion of . or smaller. A sample proportion of . would be a fairly
surprising result.
MP.5

22. What do you think would happen to the sampling distribution you constructed in the previous exercises if everyone
in class took a random sample of size instead of ? Justify your answer.

Answers will vary. The more samples, the more accurate the simulation will be because the standard deviation
decreases as sample size increases.

Closing (2 minutes)
Ask students to summarize the main ideas of the lesson in writing or with a neighbor. Use this as an opportunity to
informally assess comprehension of the lesson. The Lesson Summary below offers some important ideas that should be
included.

Lesson Summary
The sampling distribution of the sample proportion can be approximated by a graph of the sample proportions for
many different random samples. The mean of the sample proportions will be approximately equal to the value of
the population proportion.

As the sample size increases, the sampling variability in the sample proportion decreases; in other words, the
standard deviation of the sample proportions decreases.

Exit Ticket (5 minutes)

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Name Date

Lesson 15: Sampling Variability in the Sample Proportion

Exit Ticket

Below are three dot plots of the proportion of tails in 20, 60, or 120 simulated flips of a coin. The mean and standard
deviation of the sample proportions are also shown for each of the three dot plots. Match each dot plot with the
appropriate number of flips. Clearly explain how you matched the plots with the number of simulated flips.

Dot Plot 1
Mean: 0.502 Sample Size: _________
Standard deviation: 0.046
Explain:

Dot Plot 2
Mean: 0.518 Sample Size: _________
Standard deviation: 0.064
Explain:

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Dot Plot 3
Mean: 0.498 Sample Size: _________
Standard deviation: 0.110
Explain:

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

Below are three dot plots of the proportion of tails in , , or simulated flips of a coin. The mean and standard
deviation of the sample proportions are also shown for each of the three dot plots. Match each dot plot with the
appropriate number of flips. Clearly explain how you matched the plots with the number of simulated flips.

Dot Plot 1 Sample Size: flips of the coin

Mean: .
Standard deviation: . Explain: As the number of flips
increases, the standard deviation
decreases. The sampling
distribution based on flips has
the smallest standard deviation.

Dot Plot 2 Sample Size: flips of the coin

Mean: .
Standard deviation: . Explain: As sampling size increases,
the standard deviation decreases.
Because this sample size falls
between the other two, its
standard deviation will be between
the standard deviations of the
other sample sizes.

Dot Plot 3 Sample Size: flips of the coin

Mean: .
Standard deviation: . Explain: This standard deviation is
the largest, which means that the
sample size must be the smallest.

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Problem Set Sample Solutions

1. A student conducted a simulation of coin flips. Below is a dot plot of the sampling distribution of the proportion
of heads. This sampling distribution has a mean of . and a standard deviation of . .

a. Describe the shape of the distribution.

The distribution is approximately symmetric. Some students may respond that the distribution is slightly
skewed to the left.

b. Describe what would have happened to the mean and the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of
the sample proportions if the student had flipped a coin times, calculated the proportion of heads, and
then repeated this process for a total of times.

The mean would be approximately equal to . , and the standard deviation would be less than . .

2. What effect does increasing the sample size have on the mean of the sampling distribution?

Increasing the sample size does not affect the mean of the sampling distribution. The mean of the sampling
distribution is approximately equal to the population mean for any sample size.

3. What effect does increasing the sample size have on the standard deviation of the sampling distribution?

Increasing the sample size decreases the standard deviation of the sampling distribution.

4. A student wanted to decide whether or not a particular coin was fair (i.e., the probability of flipping a head is . ).
She flipped the coin times, calculated the proportion of heads, and repeated this process a total of times.
Below is the sampling distribution of sample proportions of heads. The mean and standard deviation of the
sampling distribution are . and . , respectively. Do you think this was a fair coin? Why or why not?

If the coin was fair, the sampling distribution should be centered at about . . Here, the sampling distribution is
centered pretty far to the left of . . Hence, it is unlikely that the probability of heads for this coin would be . .

5. The same student flipped the coin times, calculated the proportion of heads, and repeated this process a total
of times. Below is the sampling distribution of sample proportions of heads. The mean and standard deviation
of the sampling distribution are . and . , respectively. Do you think this was a fair coin? Why or why not?

If the coin was fair, the sampling distribution should be centered at about . . Here, the sampling distribution is
centered pretty far to the left of . . Hence, it is unlikely that the probability of heads for this coin would be . .

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Lesson 16: Margin of Error When Estimating a Population

Proportion

Student Outcomes
Students use data from a random sample to estimate a population proportion.
Students calculate and interpret margin of error in context.
Students know the relationship between sample size and margin of error in the context of estimating a
population proportion.

Lesson Notes
From prior lessons, students should recognize that the values of statistics calculated from samples selected from known
populations vary from sample to sample. In this lesson, students learn what variability can tell about an unknown
population. Students use data from a random sample drawn from a mystery bag to estimate a population proportion
and then find and interpret a margin of error for the estimate. Comparing an observed proportion of successes from a
random sample drawn from a population with an unknown proportion of successes to these sampling distributions
provides information about what populations might produce a random sample like the one observed. This lesson can be
done as a class investigation with students actually drawing samples and simulating sampling distributions using random
number generators or by working through a set of questions that relate to the kinds of activities they would actually do
in a hands-on investigation.

Classwork
Exploratory Challenge 1/Exercises 1–4 (25 minutes): Mystery Bag
For a Whole-Class Hands-On Investigation:
Prepare at least nine small bags of colored chips, one bag for each pair of students. If chips are not available, use pieces
of paper with the letter R written on them. Each bag should have 20 chips with the following numbers of red chips. If
the class is large, prepare duplicate bags for the percentages.
2 red chips—10% of the chips are red.
4 red chips—20% of the chips are red.
6 red chips—30% of the chips are red.
8 red chips—40% of the chips are red.
10 red chips—50% of the chips are red.
12 red chips—60% of the chips are red.
14 red chips—70% of the chips are red.
16 red chips—80% of the chips are red.
18 red chips—90% of the chips are red.

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To learn about an unknown population, it is easiest to start by understanding how samples from a known population
would behave. Consider asking students the following question to activate their prior knowledge and remind them of
the variability inherent in different samples from the same population:
Suppose you know that 20% of the chips in a bag are red. Write down an estimate of the number of red chips
MP.3 you are likely to see in a random sample of 30 chips from the bag. Have students write or speak responses to
each other or as a class.
Drawing a red chip constitutes a success. The proportion of red chips in each bag should be clearly written on the
bottom of the bag. (Several pairs of students may have the same proportion if the class is large.) The other chips can be
any color other than red. These chips represent failures.
Give each pair of students a bag with the proportion of reds marked on the bottom. Monitor the class, and when most
students have two sets of 30 observations, bring the class together, and suggest they use technology to generate their
random samples to speed up the process. Each pair of students should generate a set that corresponds to the
percentage of red chips in their bags; for example, the 10% can be represented by a set consisting of
= {1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0}, 20% by {1,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0}, and so on. They should draw a sample of size 30 with
replacement from their sets. For some random number generators, the command would be randsamp ( , 30) to
generate 30 elements from the set, and then a sum command can be used to find the number of successes in the
sample:
: = {1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0} {1. ,0. ,0. ,0. ,0. ,0. ,0. ,0. ,0. ,0.}
: = randSamp( ,30) {0. ,0. ,0. ,1. ,0. ,1. ,0. ,0. ,0. ,0. ,0. ,0. ,1. ,0. ,0. ,1. ,0. ,0. ,0. ,0. ,0. ,0. ,0. ,1. ,0. ,0. ,0. ,0. ,0. ,0.}
sum(r) 5.
Have students record the number of successes in a frequency tally and then select additional samples. Repeating the
process about 40 or 50 times gives them a simulated sampling distribution of the number of red chips in random
samples of size 30 drawn from a population that is known to have a certain percentage of red chips. Emphasize that
they are drawing samples from a population with known proportions of successes—in this case, red chips.
Once most students have generated about 50 random samples of size 30 from their bags and recorded the number of
reds in each sample in a frequency tally, bring the class together. Instruct students to do the following:
Look at your simulated sampling distributions for the number of red chips in your samples, and write down an
interval that seems to describe the number of reds you would typically get for the proportion of red chips in
the bag.
If I create a frequency tally or dot plot, it looks like about half of the samples resulted in having between
10 and 14 red chips.
Then, return to the mystery bag, and respond to Exercises 2 and 3.

For a Lesson With and Without the Hands-On Activities:

Prepare one mystery bag that has 20 chips with an unknown (to the class) proportion of red chips. Perhaps put eight red
chips in the bag for a mystery proportion of 40%. Try not to use six red chips (30%) as students may confuse the
percent with the sample of 30 chips that are drawn with replacement from the bag. Students do not actually have to
know there are 20 chips in any of the bags because the samples are drawn with replacement.

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Begin the class with the introduction below. Lessons without the hands-on activities should begin with Exercise 1.
Lessons with the hands-on activities should begin with Exercise 2. In Exercise 3, students understand that a margin of
error is the interval that marks off the proportions of red chips from the expected proportion that are unlikely to occur
MP.2 based on the simulated sampling distribution. If the proportion from the sample did not show up in the sampling
distribution nor was one of the more extreme proportions identified in the interval called the margin of error, then it is
unlikely the proportion of red chips in the mystery bag is equal to the proportion stated in the investigation. It is
important to have a class discussion on part (b) of Exercise 3 to make sure students understand that the margin of error
defines an interval and not the likelihood of making a mistake.
Bring in the mystery bag, and ask students what proportion of the chips in the bag they think are red chips. Ask
students:
MP.3 How can you find the proportion of red chips in the bag?
Students should write or speak with a partner to develop a plan. (Note: Taking the chips
Scaffolding:
out, examining them, and counting the red ones is not an option.)
Encourage advanced learners
Have one student draw a chip from the bag and a different student record whether the to develop their own plans for
chip was red or not red. Return the chip to the bag, shake the bag, and have students determining the proportion
draw and record the color of a second chip. Continue the process until they have a sample and carry it out, without
of 30 chips. Ask students to write down their predictions for the proportion of red chips in scaffold questions given.
the bag based on the sample results.
Offer struggling students a
simpler example (e.g., a bag
Exploratory Challenge 1/Exercises 1–4: Mystery Bag
with only four chips—one
In this lesson, you will use data from a random sample drawn from a mystery bag to estimate a red—in it) that illustrates the
population proportion and learn how to find and interpret a margin of error for your estimate. ideas at work here. Show a
1. Write down your estimate for the proportion of red chips in the mystery bag based on the visual of this, and ask
random sample of chips drawn in class. questions, such as “How many
red chips would you have in a
If red chips were in the sample of , some students might suggest that of the chips in sample of 10? 20? 50?”
the mystery bag were red. Others might suggest an interval around . .

2. Tanya and Raoul had a paper bag that contained red and black chips. The bag was marked % red chips. They
drew random samples of chips, with replacement, from the bag. (They were careful to shake the bag after they
replaced a chip.) They had red chips in their sample. They drew another random sample of chips from the bag,
and this time they had red chips. They repeated this sampling process times and made a plot of the number
of red chips in each sample. A plot of their sampling distribution is shown below.

0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Number of Red Chips

a. What was the most common number of red chips in the samples? Does this seem reasonable? Why or
why not?

The most common number in the samples was red chips, which seems reasonable because we would
expect to have about % successes, and % of is successes, and is close to that.

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b. What number of red chips, if any, never occurred in any of the samples?

They never got a sample with a number of red chips less than or equal to or more than or equal to .

c. Give an interval that contains the likely number of red chips in samples of size based on the simulated
sampling distribution.

From to 18 red chips

Note: Do not focus on exactly what “likely” means. The object is to see if it is at all reasonable for an
outcome to occur by chance.

d. Do you think the number of red chips in the mystery bag could have come from a sample drawn from a bag
that had % red chips? Why or why not?

This depends on the number of red chips that were observed in the random sample drawn from the mystery
bag. If the observed number of red chips was , the answer would be “yes” because red chips occurred
just by chance in the simulated sampling distribution. Some students might suggest or more red chips only
occurred once in random samples, so it was not too likely but could happen by chance. The important
concept is that students look at the simulated distribution to see where the observed outcome falls with
respect to that distribution.

Nine different bags of chips were distributed to small teams of students in the class. Each bag had a different proportion
of red chips. Each team simulated drawing different random samples of size from their bags and recorded the
number of red chips for each sample. The graphs of their simulated sampling distributions are shown below.

Population % Red Chips Population % Red Chips

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Number of Red Chips Number of Red Chips

Population % Red Chips Population % Red Chips

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Number of Red Chips Number of Red Chips

Population % Red Chips Population % Red Chips

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Number of Red Chips Number of Red Chips

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Population % Red Chips Population % Red Chips

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Number of Red Chips Number of Red Chips

Population % Red Chips

0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Number of Red Chips

3. Think about the number of red chips in the random sample of size that was drawn from the mystery bag.
a. Based on the simulated sampling distributions, do you think that the mystery bag might have had % red
chips? Explain your reasoning.

If the random sample of size from the mystery bag had red chips, the answer would be “no” because
never showed up once in all of the samples.

b. Based on the simulated sampling distributions, which of the percentages %, %, %, %, %, %,

%, %, and % might reasonably be the percentage of red chips in the mystery bag?

If the number of red chips in the sample from the mystery bag was , it looks like, just by chance, the sample
could have been drawn from a population having from % to % red chips.

c. Let represent the proportion of red chips in the mystery bag. (For
example, = . if there are % red chips in the bag.) Based on your
Scaffolding:
answer to part (b), write an inequality that describes plausible values for English language learners may need
. Interpret the inequality in terms of the mystery bag population. a quick explanation of the term
. . margin.
This means that based on the simulated sampling distributions, the true It can be the part of a page that is
proportion of red chips in the mystery bag could have been anywhere from above, below, or to the side of a
. to . . It would not have been surprising for a random sample of printed part.
size drawn from any of these populations to have included red
chips.
In this lesson, it can be a measure
or degree of difference.
A Frayer diagram may be used to
4. If the inequality like the one you described in part (c) of Exercise 3 went from
. to . , it is sometimes written as . ± . . The value . is called a
explain margin of error.
margin of error. The margin of error represents an interval from the expected
proportion that would not contain any proportions or very few proportions based
on the simulated sampling distribution. Proportions in this interval are not
expected to occur when taking a sample from the mystery bag.
a. Write the inequality you found in Exercise 3 part (c), using this notation.
What is the margin of error?

Using as the number of red chips in the random sample from the
mystery bag, the interval would be . ± . . The margin of error is
defined as an interval of . .

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b. Suppose Sol said, “So this means that the actual proportion of red chips in the mystery bag was %.” Tonya
argued that the actual proportion of red chips in the mystery bag was %. What would you say?

They are both wrong. The notation does not mean that the center of the interval is the actual population but
that it is the center of an interval made by adding and subtracting the margin of error. A random sample
drawn from any proportion in the interval could have produced an outcome of red chips. Tonya has mixed
up the number describing the length of the interval with the population proportion.

Exploratory Challenge 2/Exercises 5–7 (10 minutes): Samples of Size 50

All students should do Exercise 5. As in the prior part of the lesson, students (or a subset of students) may actually
simulate the sampling distributions. Or they can use the distributions provided in Exercise 6. The simulation would be
similar to that for a sample of size 30, simply replacing 30 in the command with 50. All students should respond to
Exercise 6.

Exploratory Challenge 2/Exercises 5–7: Samples of Size 50

5. Do you think the margin of error would be different in Exercise 4 if you had sampled chips instead of ? Try to
convince a partner that your conjecture is correct.
MP.3 They might be different but maybe only a little bit. I am not sure why the sample size would make a difference
because the counts would be different, but it would still be centered around the same proportion ( % of a sample
of size is red chips; % of a sample of size is red chips—different counts but the same proportion).

6. Below are simulated sampling distributions of the number of red chips for samples of size from populations with
various percentages of red chips.

Population with % Red Chips Population with % Red Chips

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Number of Red Chips Number of Red Chips

Population with % Red Chips Population with % Red Chips

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Number of Red Chips Number of Red Chips

Population with % Red Chips Population with % Red Chips

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Number of Red Chips Number of Red Chips

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Population with % Red Chips Population with % Red Chips

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Number of Red Chips Number of Red Chips

Population with % Red Chips

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Number of Red Chips

a. Suppose you drew red chips in a random sample of from the mystery bag. What are plausible values
for the proportion of red chips in the mystery bag? Explain your reasoning.

Plausible population proportions are from . to . .

b. Write an expression that contains the margin of error based on your answer to part (a).

The margin of error statement would be . ± . . The margin of error would be . .

7. Remember your conjecture from Exercise 5, and compare the margin of error you found for a sample of size
(from Exercise 3) to the margin of error you found for a sample of size .
a. Was your reasoning in Exercise 5 correct? Why or why not?

I forgot that the sample size might have to do with the spread of the distribution, not just the center, so my
reasoning was not correct.

b. Explain why the change in the margin of error makes sense.

The margin of error was . for the sample size of , which is less than the margin of error for the sample
size of . It makes sense that the margin of error would decrease as the sample size increases because as
the sample size increases, the variability from sample to sample decreases, and the sample proportions tend
to be closer to the actual population proportion.

Closing (5 minutes)
Why do you suppose we use language like margin of error to define the interval describing a population that
might have produced a sample proportion of red chips like the one from the mystery bag?
The word error is misleading; it makes you think that you are off by a certain percent; it really tells you
the range of possible population proportions for the population from which a random sample is drawn.
How could you apply the concepts from this lesson to investigate the proportion of female customers in a
coffee shop on a weekday morning if you had observed 18 female customers in a random sample of 30 people
during that time?
The results would be the same because female customers would be like the red chips, and the sample
size remains the same. Going into the coffee shop to take a random sample is the same as drawing a
random sample from a mystery bag.

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You knew the sample size and the observed outcome when you started the investigation you just did. Why
were these important to know?
You needed the sample size to know what size samples to generate, and you had to have an observed
outcome to think about what might be plausible populations considering the simulated distributions of
sample proportions for populations of known proportions.
Ask students to summarize the main ideas of the lesson in writing or with a neighbor. Use this as an opportunity to
informally assess comprehension of the lesson. The Lesson Summary below offers some important ideas that should be
included.

Lesson Summary
In this lesson, you investigated how to make an inference about an unknown population proportion based on a
random sample from that population.

You learned how random samples from populations with known proportions of successes behave by
simulating sampling distributions for samples drawn from those populations.
Comparing an observed proportion of successes from a random sample drawn from a population with
an unknown proportion of successes to these sampling distributions gives you some information about
what populations might produce a random sample like the one you observed.
These plausible population proportions can be described as ± . The value of is called a margin of
error.

Exit Ticket (5 minutes)

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Name Date

Lesson 16: Margin of Error When Estimating a Population

Proportion

Exit Ticket

1. Suppose you drew a sample of 12 red chips in a sample of 30 from a mystery bag. Describe how you would find
plausible population proportions using the simulated sampling distributions we generated from populations with
known proportions of red chips.

2. What would happen to the interval containing plausible population proportions if you changed the sample size to
60?

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

1. Suppose you drew a sample of red chips in a sample of from a mystery bag. Describe how you would find
plausible population proportions using the simulated sampling distributions we generated from populations with
known proportions of red chips.

Answers will vary. I would look at the simulated distributions to see which ones contained an outcome of red
chips. For those that did, the corresponding population proportion would be included in the set of plausible
population proportions. (Students might use the actual distributions if they have them available and use the
corresponding interval as an example in their answers— . to . in those above.)

2. What would happen to the interval containing plausible population proportions if you changed the sample size to
?

The width of the interval would decrease, and the margin of error would be smaller.

Problem Set Sample Solutions

1. Tanya simulated drawing a sample of size from a population of chips and got the following simulated sampling
distribution for the number of red chips:

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Number of Red Chips

Which of the following results seem like they might have come from this population? Explain your reasoning.

I. red chips in a random sample of size

II. red chips in a random sample of size
III. red chips in a random sample of size

Samples that had and red chips might have come from this population because they occurred by chance in the
random samples from the simulation. A sample with red chips never occurred by chance, so it seems more
unlikely to happen for this population.

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2. % of the students in a random sample of high school students intended to go to college. The graphs below
show the result of simulating random samples of size from several different populations where the success
percentage was known and recording the percentage of successes in the sample.

(i) Population with % Successes (ii) Population with % Successes

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Number of Successes Number of Successes

(iii) Population with % Successes (iv) Population with % Successes

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Number of Successes
Number of Successes

a. Based on these graphs, which of the following are plausible values for the percentage of successes in the
population from which the sample was selected: %, %, %, or %? Explain your thinking.

The graphs show that % successes was a likely outcome for samples from populations with % and %
successes. While exactly % did not occur in the % success population, it was in the range of observed
sample percentages and, thus, could have happened. None of the samples from the % success population
had a percentage of successes as large as %, so it would not seem likely that the sample came from this
population.

b. Would you need more information to determine plausible values for the actual proportion of the population
of high school students who intend to go to some postsecondary school? Why or why not?

Yes, you would need more information because you have not really looked at any simulated distributions of
sample proportions larger than %. And % or % might turn out to be plausible as well.

3. Suppose the mystery bag had resulted in the following number of red chips. Using the simulated sampling
distributions found earlier in this lesson, find a margin of error in each case.
a. The number of red chips in a random sample of size was .

. to . , or . ± . , for a margin of error of .

b. The number of red chips in a random sample of size was .

. to . , or . ± . , for a margin of error of .

c. The number of red chips in a random sample of size was .

. to . , or . ± . , for a margin of error of .

4. The following intervals were plausible population proportions for a given sample. Find the margin of error in each
case.
a. From . to .

. ± .

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b. From . to .

. ± .

c. From . to .

. ± .

d. From . to .

. ± .

5. Decide if each of the following statements is true or false. Explain your reasoning in each case.
a. The smaller the sample size, the smaller the margin of error.

False. The smaller the sample size, the larger the margin of error.

b. If the margin of error is . and the observed proportion of red chips is . , then the true population
proportion is likely to be between . and . .

True. The range of plausible values for the population proportion is . to . .

6. Extension: The margin of error for a sample of size is . ; for a sample of , it is . . If you increase the
sample size to , do you think the margin of error for the percent of successes will be . ? Why or why not?

No. When we simulated the sampling distributions for a sample size , the margin of error got smaller but was
not . .

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Lesson 17: Margin of Error When Estimating a Population

Proportion
Student Outcomes
Students use data from a random sample to estimate a population proportion.
Students calculate and interpret margin of error in context.
Students know the relationship between sample size and margin of error in the context of estimating a
population proportion.

Lesson Notes
A general approach for finding a margin of error involves using the standard deviation of a sample proportion. With
appropriate sample sizes, 95% of all sample proportions are within about two standard deviations of the true
population proportion. Therefore, due to natural sampling variability, 95% of all samples have a sample proportion of
true proportion ± 2 sample standard deviation, where 2SD is the margin of error. The first half of this lesson leads
students through an example of finding and interpreting the standard deviation of a sampling distribution for a sample
proportion. The focus of the second half of the lesson centers on the concept that if a sample size is large, then the
sampling distribution of the sample proportion is approximately normal. To use the normal model for a sampling
distribution, the Success-Failure condition (in which 10 and 10) and the 10% condition (i.e., the sample size
is no larger than 10% of the population) must both be met.

Classwork

In this lesson, you will find and interpret the standard deviation of a simulated distribution
for a sample proportion and use this information to calculate a margin of error for estimating Scaffolding:
the population proportion.
Some students may have trouble
moving from the count of the
number of successes to the
Exercises 1–6 (18 minutes): Standard Deviation for Proportions proportion. Suppose there are
In this set of exercises, students find and interpret the standard deviation of a sample 15 seniors out of 20 high school
proportion. Note that there is a shift in the notation to account for the sampling students.
context, where the sample proportion of successes—denoted by and read as p-hat— To find the proportion,
is a statistic obtained from the sample, as opposed to , which is the proportion of divide the number of
successes in the entire population. successes by the sample size:
= 0.75.
To find the percentage,
multiply the proportion by
100%: 0.75 × 100% =
75%.

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Exercises 1–6: Standard Deviation for Proportions

In the previous lesson, you used simulated sampling distributions to learn about sampling variability in the sample
proportion and the margin of error when using a random sample to estimate a population proportion. However, finding a
margin of error using simulation can be cumbersome and can take a long time for each situation. Fortunately, given the
consistent behavior of the sampling distribution of the sample proportion for random samples, statisticians have
developed a formula that will allow you to find the margin of error quickly and without simulation.

1. % of students participating in sports at Union High School are female (a proportion of . ).

a. If you took many random samples of students who play sports and made a dot plot of the proportion of
female students in each sample, where do you think this distribution will be centered? Explain your thinking.

Answers will vary. Since % of is , I would expect the sampling distribution to be centered around
female students.

b. In general, for any sample size, where do you think the center of a simulated distribution of the sample
proportion of female students in sports at Union High School will be?

The sampling distribution should be centered at around . . Some samples will result in a sample proportion
of female students that is greater than . , and some will result in a sample proportion of female students
that is less than . , but the sample proportions should center around . .

2. Below are two simulated sampling distributions for the sample proportion of female students in random samples
from all the students at Union High School.

Simulated Sampling Distribution 1 Simulated Sampling Distribution 2

a. Based on the two sampling distributions above, what do you think is the population proportion of female
students?

Answers will vary, but students should give an answer around . .

b. One of the sampling distributions above is based on random samples of size , and the other is based on
random samples of size . Which sampling distribution corresponds to the sample size of ? Explain your
choice.

Simulated Sampling Distribution 2 corresponds to the sample size of . I chose this one because it is more
spread out—there is more sample-to-sample variability in Simulated Sampling Distribution 2 than in
Simulated Sampling Distribution 1.

3. Remember from your earlier work in statistics that distributions were described using shape, center, and spread.
How was spread measured?

The spread of a distribution was measured with either the standard deviation or (sometimes) the interquartile
range.

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4. For random samples of size , the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the sample proportion can be
calculated using the following formula:

= ,

where is the value of the population proportion and is the sample size.
a. If the proportion of female students at Union High School is . , what is the standard deviation of the
distribution of the sample proportions of female students for random samples of size ? Round your
answer to three decimal places.

( . )( . )
.

b. The proportion of males at Union High School is . . What is the standard deviation of the distribution of the
sample proportions of male students for random samples of size ? Round your answer to three decimal
places.

( . )( . )
.

c. Think about the graphs of the two distributions in parts (a) and (b). Explain the relationship between your
answers using the center and spread of the distributions.

The two distributions are alike, but one is centered at . and the other at . . The spread, as measured by
the standard deviation of the two distributions, will be the same.

5. Think about the simulations that your class performed in the previous lesson and the simulations in Exercise 2
above.
a. Was the sampling variability in the sample proportion greater for samples of size or for samples of size
? In other words, does the sample proportion tend to vary more from one random sample to another
when the sample size is or ?

There was more variability from sample to sample when the sample size was .

b. Explain how the observation that the variability in the sample proportions decreases as the sample size
increases is supported by the formula for the standard deviation of the sample proportion.

You divide by in the formula, and as (a positive whole number) increases, the result of the division will be
smaller.

6. Consider the two simulated sampling distributions of the proportion of female students in Exercise 2 where the
population proportion was . . Recall that you found = for Distribution 1 and = for Distribution 2.
a. Find the standard deviation for each distribution. Round your answer to three decimal places.

In Simulated Sampling Distribution 1, = , and the standard deviation is . .

In Simulated Sampling Distribution 2, = , and the standard deviation is . .

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b. Make a sketch, and mark off the intervals one standard deviation from the mean for each of the two
distributions. Interpret the intervals in terms of the proportion of female students in a sample.

Simulated Sampling Distribution 1: = Simulated Sampling Distribution 2: =

The interval is from . to . . Typically, the The interval is from . to . . Typically, the
proportion of female students in a sample of size proportion of female students in a sample of size will
will be between . to . , or about %– %. be between . to . , or about %– %.

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

Sample Proportion

In general, three results about the sampling distribution of the sample proportion are known.

The sampling distribution of the sample proportion is centered at the actual value of the population
proportion, .

The sampling distribution of the sample proportion is less variable for larger samples than for smaller samples.
The variability in the sampling distribution is described by the standard deviation of the distribution, and the
( )
standard deviation of the sampling distribution for random samples of size is , where is the value
of the population proportion. This standard deviation is usually estimated using the sample proportion, which
is denoted by (read as p-hat), to distinguish it from the population proportion. The formula for the
( )
estimated standard deviation of the distribution of sample proportions is .

As long as the sample size is large enough that the sample includes at least successes and failures, the
sampling distribution is approximately normal in shape. That is, a normal distribution would be a reasonable
model for the sampling distribution.

Exercises 7–12 (17 minutes): Using the Standard Deviation with Margin of Error
The focus of this exercise set centers on the fact that if the sample size is large, the sampling distribution of the sample
proportion is approximately normal. Combining this information with what students have learned about normal
MP.2
distributions leads to the fact that about 95% of the sample proportions are within two standard deviations of the value
of the population (the mean of the sampling distribution). Note that if the population proportion is close to 0 or 1,
either no one or everyone has the characteristic of interest, and the normal approximation to the sampling distribution
is not appropriate unless the sample size is very, very large. To use the result based on the normal distribution, values of
and should satisfy 10 and (1 ) 10. This is the same as saying that the sample is large enough, and at
least 10 successes and failures would be expected in the sample. In addition to this Success-Failure condition, a 10%
condition must also be met. The sample size must be less than 10% of the population to ensure that samples are
independent.
Building from this normal approximation to the sampling distribution of , a formula can be created for the margin of
error, dependent on the sample size and the proportion of successes observed in the sample.

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In Exercise 9, interested and motivated students might analyze the change in the rate at which the margin of error
MP.2 decreases and note that it is not constant; the margin of error is decreasing at a smaller and smaller rate as the sample
size increases, which suggests a possible limiting factor.
In Exercises 11 and 12, students look for and make use of structure as they consider the formula for margin of error and
MP.7
reason about how margin of error is affected by sample size and the value of the sample proportion.

Exercises 7–12: Using the Standard Deviation with Margin of Error

7. In the work above, you investigated a simulated sampling distribution of the proportion of female students in a
sample of size drawn from a population with a known proportion of . female students. The simulated
distribution of the proportion of red chips in a sample of size drawn from a population with a known proportion
of . is displayed below.

a. Use the formula for the standard deviation of the sample proportion to calculate the standard deviation of
the sampling distribution. Round your answer to three decimal places.

The standard deviation should be about . .

b. The distribution from Exercise 2 for a sample of size is below. How do the two distributions compare?

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 05 0.6

Sample Proportion

The shapes of the two sampling distributions of the proportions are slightly different, but they both center at
. and have the same estimated standard deviation, . .

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c. How many of the values of the sample proportions are within one standard deviation of . ? How many are
within two standard deviations of . ?

The typical distance of the values from . is one standard deviation, between . and . . All but
two of the values are within two standard deviations from . , or between . and . . See the dot
plot below.

In general, for a known population proportion, about % of the outcomes of a simulated sampling distribution of a
sample proportion will fall within two standard deviations of the population proportion. One caution is that if the
proportion is close to or , this general rule may not hold unless the sample size is very large. You can build from this to
estimate a proportion of successes for an unknown population proportion and calculate a margin of error without having
to carry out a simulation.

If the sample is large enough to have at least of each of the two possible outcomes in the sample but small enough to
be no more than % of the population, the following formula (based on an observed sample proportion ) can be used
to calculate the margin of error. The standard deviation involves the parameter that is being estimated. Because is
often not known, statisticians replace with its estimate in the standard deviation formula. This estimated standard
deviation is called the standard error of the sample proportion.

8.
a. Suppose you draw a random sample of chips from a mystery bag and find red chips. Find , the
sample proportion of red chips, and the standard error.

( ) ( . )( . )
= . , and the standard error is = . .

b. Interpret the standard error.

The sample proportion was . , so I estimate that the proportion of red chips in the bag is . . The actual
population proportion probably isn’t exactly equal to . , but I expect that my estimate is within . of
the actual value.

When estimating a population proportion, margin of error can be defined as the maximum expected difference between
the value of the population proportion and a sample estimate of that proportion (the farthest away from the actual
population value that you think your estimate is likely to be).

If is the sample proportion for a random sample of size from some population and if the sample
size is large enough,

= .

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9. Henri and Terence drew samples of size from a mystery bag. Henri drew red chips, and Terence drew red
chips. Find the margins of error for each student.

Henri’s estimated margin of error is . ; Terence’s estimated margin of error is . .

10. Divide the problems below among your group, and find the sample proportion of successes and the estimated
margin of error in each situation:
a. Sample of size , red chips

Sample proportion of red chips is . , which is %; estimated margin of error is . , which is . %.

b. Sample of size , red chips

Sample proportion of red chips is . , which is %; estimated margin of error is . , which is . %.

c. Sample of size , red chips

Sample proportion of red chips is . , which is %; estimated margin of error is . , which is . %.

d. Sample of size , red chips

Sample proportion of red chips is . , which is %; estimated margin of error is . ,which is . %.

11. Look at your answers to Exercise 2.

a. What conjecture can you make about the relation between sample size and margin of error? Explain why
your conjecture makes sense.

As the sample size increases, the margin of error decreases. If you have a larger sample size, you can get a
better estimate of the proportion of successes that are in the population, so the margin of error should be
smaller.

b. Think about the formula for a margin of error. How does this support or refute your conjecture?

In the formula for the margin of error, the sample size is in the denominator of a fraction. If the sample size is
large, that means the result of the division gets smaller. So, if the proportion is the same for three different-
sized random samples, the smallest result would be when you divided by the largest sample size.

12. Suppose that a random sample of size will be used to estimate a population proportion.
a. Would the estimated margin of error be greater if = . or = . ? Support your answer with
appropriate calculations.
. .
For = . : estimated margin of error = .

. .
For = . : estimated margin of error = .

The estimated margin of error is greater when = . .

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b. Would the estimated margin of error be greater if = . or = . ? Support your answer with
appropriate calculations.

. .
For = . : estimated margin of error = .

. .
For = . : estimated margin of error = .

The estimated margin of error is greater when = . .

c. For what value of do you think the estimated margin of error will be greatest? (Hint: Draw a graph of
( ) as ranges from to .)

The estimated margin of error is greater when = . . The value of ( ) is greatest when = . .
(See graph below.) This value is in the numerator of the fraction in the formula for margin of error, so the
margin of error is greatest when = . .

Closing (5 minutes)
How does the work you did earlier on normal distributions relate to the margin of error?
In a normal distribution, about 95% of the outcomes are within two standard deviations of the mean.
We used the same thinking to get the margin of error formula.
How will your thinking about the margin of error change in each of the following situations?
- A poll of 100 randomly selected people found 42% favor changing the voting age.
- A sample of 100 red chips from a mystery bag found 42 red chips.
- 42 cars in a random sample of 100 cars sold by a dealer were white.
In all of the examples, the sample proportion and the sample size are the same and would give the
same margin of error.
Why is it important to have a random sample when you are finding a margin of error?
A random sample is important because you need to know that the behavior of the sample you choose
should be fairly consistent across different samples. Having randomly selected samples is the only way
to be sure of this.

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Ask students to summarize the main ideas of the lesson in writing or with a neighbor. Use this as an opportunity to
informally assess comprehension of the lesson. The Lesson Summary below offers some important ideas that should be
included.

Lesson Summary
Because random samples behave in a consistent way, a large enough sample size allows
you to find a formula for the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of a sample
( )
proportion. This can be used to calculate the margin of error: = , where is
the proportion of successes in a random sample of size .
The sample size is large enough to use this result for estimated margin of error if there are
at least of each of the two outcomes.
The sample size should not exceed % of the population.
As the sample size increases, the margin of error decreases.

Exit Ticket (5 minutes)

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Name Date

Lesson 17: Margin of Error When Estimating a Population

Proportion

Exit Ticket

1. Find the estimated margin of error when estimating the proportion of red chips in a mystery bag if 18 red chips
were drawn from the bag in a random sample of 50 chips.

2. Explain what your answer to Problem 1 tells you about the number of red chips in the mystery bag.

3. How could you decrease your margin of error? Explain why this works.

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

1. Find the estimated margin of error when estimating the proportion of red chips in a mystery bag if red chips
were drawn from the bag in a random sample of chips.

The margin of error would be . .

2. Explain what your answer to Problem 1 tells you about the number of red chips in the mystery bag.

The sample proportion of . is likely to be within . of the actual value of the population proportion. This
means that the proportion of red chips in the bag might be somewhere between . and . , or about
%– % red chips.

3. How could you decrease your margin of error? Explain why this works.

The margin of error could be decreased by increasing sample size. The larger the sample size, the smaller the
standard deviation, thus the smaller the margin of error.

Problem Set Sample Solutions

1. Different students drew random samples of size from the mystery bag. The number of red chips each drew is
given below. In each case, find the margin of error for the proportions of the red chips in the mystery bag.
a. red chips

The margin of error will be approximately . .

b. red chips

The margin of error will be approximately . .

c. red chips

The margin of error will be approximately . .

2. The school newspaper at a large high school reported that out of randomly selected students favor
assigned parking spaces. Compute the margin of error. Interpret the resulting interval in context.

( . ) .
The margin of error will be , which is approximately . . The resulting interval is . ± . , or
from . to . . The proportion of students who favor assigned parking spaces is from . to . .

3. A newspaper in a large city asked women the following: “Do you use organic food products (such as milk,
meats, vegetables, etc.)?” women answered “yes.” Compute the margin of error. Interpret the resulting
interval in context.

( . ) .
The margin of error will be , which is approximately . . The resulting interval is . ± .
or from . to . . The proportion of women who use organic food products is between . and . .

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4. The results of testing a new drug on , people with a certain disease found that of them improved when
they used the drug. Assume these , people can be regarded as a random sample from the population of all
people with this disease. Based on these results, would it be reasonable to think that more than half of the people
with this disease would improve if they used the new drug? Why or why not?

The margin of error would be about . , which is about . %, which means that the sample proportion of .
is likely to be within . of the value of the actual population proportion. That means that the population
proportion might be as small as . , which is . %. So, it is not reasonable to think that more than half of the
people with the disease would improve if they used the new drug.

5. A newspaper in New York took a random sample of registered voters from New York City and found that
favored a certain candidate for governor of the state. A second newspaper polled , registered voters in
upstate New York and found that people favored this candidate. Explain how you would interpret the results.

In New York City, the proportion of people who favor the candidate is . ± . , which is the range from .
to . . In upstate New York, the proportion of people who favor this candidate is . ± . , which is the
range from . to . . Because the margins of error for the two candidates produce intervals that overlap,
you cannot really say that the proportion of people who prefer this candidate is different for people in New York City
and people in upstate New York.

6. In a random sample of , students in a large suburban school, , reported having a pet, resulting in the
interval . ± . . In a large urban school, out of , students reported having a pet, resulting in the
interval . ± . . Because these two intervals do not overlap, there appears to be a difference in the
proportion of suburban students owning a pet and the proportion of urban students owning a pet. Suppose the
sample size of the suburban school was only , but % still reported having a pet. Also, suppose the sample
size of the urban school was , and % still reported having a pet. Is there still a difference in the proportion of
students owning a pet in suburban schools and urban schools? Why does this occur?

The resulting intervals are as follows:

. .
For suburban students: . ± . ± . , or from . to . .

. .
For urban students: . ± . ± . , or from . to . .

No, there does not appear to be a difference in the proportion of students owning a pet in suburban and urban
schools. This occurred because the margins of error are larger due to the smaller sample size.

7. Find an article in the media that uses a margin of error. Describe the situation (an experiment, an observational
study, a survey), and interpret the margin of error for the context.

Students might bring in poll results from a newspaper.

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Lesson 18: Sampling Variability in the Sample Mean

Student Outcomes
Students understand the term sampling variability in the context of estimating a population mean.
Students understand that the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the sample mean offers insight
into the accuracy of the sample mean as an estimate of the population mean.

Lesson Notes
This is the first of two lessons to build on the concept of sampling variability in the sample mean first developed in Grade
7 Module 5 Lessons 17–19. Students use simulation to approximate the sampling distribution of the sample mean and
MP.4 explore how the simulated sampling distribution provides information about the anticipated estimation error when
using a sample mean to estimate a population mean. Students learn how simulating samples gives information about
how sample means vary.
Each student or small group of students should have a bag with slips of paper numbered one to 100. (Or as an
alternative, have them generate the random numbers using technology.) Prepare a number line on a wall or board that
goes from 1 to 5 with each unit divided into tenths. Students should have sticky notes to post the mean segment lengths
in their random samples on the number line, so leave enough space for the sticky notes.
In Exercises 4 and 5, students need to share the values of the means for their individual samples. Consider having them
report their means while the others record them (or enter them if they are using technology). To facilitate the process,
consider giving students a copy of the values from the table below used in the simulated sampling distribution of means
suggested as possible answers to Exercise 3 and Exercise 5. (Or do this as a whole-class activity with one student
entering the values to avoid errors in entering the data.)

Length of Segments
2 3 3 2 4 8 2 5 2 2
5 5 4 3 1 2 3 2 2 3
1 1 2 4 1 1 4 5 4 3
2 1 1 1 2 2 3 1 8 4
4 2 1 1 3 5 1 1 4 2
1 3 7 3 3 3 1 2 3 3
1 2 4 3 1 1 7 3 1 7
2 2 3 2 3 2 2 1 2 1
3 1 8 4 2 2 1 1 5 3
1 4 1 2 5 3 3 3 5 4

Be sure students label their graphs completely in their answers to the questions. Understanding what they are graphing
is an important part of understanding the concepts involved in this exercise.

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Classwork
Exploratory Challenge/Exercises 1–7 (40 minutes): Random Segments
Provide each student or small group with a copy of the worksheet that is located at the end of this lesson.

Exploratory Challenge/Exercises 1–7: Random Segments

The worksheet contains segments of different lengths. The length of a segment is the number of rectangles spanned
on the grid. For example, segment has length .

1. Briefly review the sheet, and estimate the mean length of the segments. Will your estimate be close to the actual
mean? Why or why not?

Answers will vary. Some may estimate , others as low as .

Sample response: I estimate the mean length is . I believe my estimate will be close to the actual mean because it
appears as if a large number of the segments are around , and if I average the longer and shorter lengths, the
average is also around .

2. Look at the sheet. With which of the statements below would you agree? Explain your reasoning.

The mean length of the segments is

a. Close to .
b. Close to .
c. Around .
d. Between and .

The only choice that makes sense to me is (d), between and . The smallest segment length was , so it does not
make sense that the mean would be the smallest. The largest segment length was , so again, it would not make
sense to have the mean be or even because there are a lot of segments of lengths and .

Some estimates for the mean are not reasonable because they are lengths of the longest segments, which would not
account for lengths that are shorter. (This would also be true for the shortest segment lengths.) While an interval
estimate might make sense, it is still hard to know for sure whether that interval is a good estimate. A better way to get
a good estimate is to use random samples.

3. Follow your teacher’s directions to select ten random numbers between and . For each random number, start
at the upper left cell with a segment value of , and count down and to the right the number of cells based on the
random number selected. The number in the cell represents the length of a randomly selected segment.
a. On a number line, graph the lengths of the corresponding segments on the worksheet.

For the random numbers { , , , , , , , , , }, the sample lengths would be

{ , , , , , , , , , }. The graph would look like:

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b. Find the mean and standard deviation of the lengths of the segments in your sample. Mark the mean length
on your graph from part (a).

The mean sample length is . units, and the standard deviation is . units.

4. Your sample provides some information about the mean length of the segments in one random sample of size ,
but that sample is only one among all the different possible random samples. Let’s look at other random samples
and see how the means from those samples compare to the mean segment length from your random sample.

Record the mean segment length for your random sample on a sticky note, and post the note in the appropriate
place on the number line your teacher set up.

Sample response (based on a class with students):

Simulated sampling distribution of mean segment lengths for samples of size

a. Jonah looked at the plot and said, “Wow. Our means really varied.” What do you think he meant?

Many of the samples had mean lengths that were different. Some were the same, but most were not.

b. Describe the simulated sampling distribution of mean segment lengths for samples of size .

The maximum mean segment length in our samples of size was . , and the minimum was . . The
sample means seemed to center around , with most of the segments from about . to . units long.

c. How did your first estimate (from Exercise 1) compare to your sample mean from the random sample? How
did it compare to the means in the simulated distribution of the sample means from the class?

My estimate was way off. I thought the mean length would be larger, like maybe . units. My sample
mean was only . units long, which was smaller than all but three of the other sample means.

5. Collect the values of the sample means from the class.

a. Find the mean and standard deviation of the simulated distribution of the sample means.

Sample response (based on the sample means used to produce the answer to Exercise 3): The mean of the
simulated distribution of sample means is . , and the standard deviation is . .

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b. Interpret the standard deviation of the simulated sampling distribution in terms of the length of the
segments.

Sample response: A typical distance of a sample mean from the center of the sampling distribution is about
. .

c. What do you observe about the values of the means in the simulated sampling distribution that are within
two standard deviations from the mean of the sampling distribution?

Sample response: All of the sample means were within two standard deviations from the mean of the
sampling distribution, from . to . .

6. Generate another set of ten random numbers, find the corresponding lengths on the sheet, and calculate the mean
length for your sample. Put a sticky note with your sample mean on the second number line. Then, answer the
following questions.

Sample response (based on a class with students): second simulated sampling distribution of mean segment
lengths for samples of size

a. Find the mean and standard deviation of the simulated distribution of the sample means.

Sample response: The mean is . units, and the standard deviation is . unit.

b. Interpret the standard deviation of the simulated sampling distribution in terms of the length of the
segments.

Sample response: A typical distance of a sample mean from the center of the sampling distribution is about
. .

c. What do you observe about the values of the means in the simulated sampling distribution that are within
two standard deviations from the mean of the sampling distribution?

Sample response: Only one or two sample means were not within two standard deviations from the mean of
the sampling distribution, . to . .

7. Suppose that we know the actual mean of all the segment lengths is . units.
a. Describe how the population mean relates to the two simulated distributions of sample means.
MP.2 The simulated sampling distributions of sample means were both centered around values very close to the
population mean.

b. Tonya was concerned that neither of the simulated distributions of sample means had a value around , but
some of the segments on the worksheet were units long, and some were as big as units long. What
would you say to Tonya?

The simulated sampling distribution was of the means of the samples, not of individual segment lengths. It
could be possible to have a mean length of from a sample of ten segment lengths, but it is not very likely.

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Closing (2–3 minutes)

Why is the concept of random samples important in exploring how a simulated sampling distribution provides
information about the anticipated estimation error when using a sample mean to estimate a population
mean?
If the samples are not random, the distribution of the sample means might not have centers close to the
population mean, and the standard deviations of different sampling distributions might not tell the
same story about the distributions of the sample means.
What is the difference between a sample mean and a distribution of sample means? (You may use the
segment lengths in your answer.)
A sample mean is the mean of the values of the segment lengths in a given sample. A distribution of
sample means is the distribution of all sorts of sample means calculated from many different samples.
Ask students to summarize the main ideas of the lesson in writing or with a neighbor. Take this opportunity to
informally assess comprehension of the lesson. The Lesson Summary below offers some important ideas that should be
included.

Lesson Summary
In this lesson, you drew a sample from a population and found the mean of that sample.

Drawing many samples of the same size from the same population and finding the mean of each of
those samples allows you to build a simulated sampling distribution of the sample means for the
samples you generated.

The mean of the simulated sampling distribution of sample means is close to the population mean.

In the two examples of simulated distributions of sample means we generated, most of the sample
means seemed to fall within two standard deviations of the mean of the simulated distribution of
sample means.

Exit Ticket (3 minutes)

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Name Date

Lesson 18: Sampling Variability in the Sample Mean

Exit Ticket

Describe what a simulated distribution of sample means is and what the standard deviation of the distribution indicates.
You may want to refer to the segment lengths in your answer.

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

Describe what a simulated distribution of sample means is and what the standard deviation of the distribution indicates.
You may want to refer to the segment lengths in your answer.

You draw samples of a given size from a population (here, it was the segment lengths), find the mean segment
length of each sample, and plot the sample mean lengths. The resulting distribution of the sample means from those
random samples is the simulated distribution of sample means. The standard deviation of that distribution gives you an
idea of how the sample means vary from sample to sample.

Problem Set Sample Solutions

1. The three distributions below relate to the population of all of the random segment lengths and to samples drawn
from that population. The eight phrases below could be used to describe a whole graph or a value on the graph.
Identify where on the appropriate graph the phrases could be placed. (For example, segment of length could be
placed by any of the values in the column for on the plot labeled Length.)

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a. Random sample of size of segment lengths

b. Segment of length
c. Sample mean segment length of
d. Mean of sampling distribution, .
e. Simulated distribution of sample means
f. Sample segment lengths
g. Population of segment lengths
h. Mean of all segment lengths, .

Possible answers are shown below. (Note that segment of length could be used in more than one place and on
more than one graph.)

Population of Segment Lengths

Random Sample of Size of Segment Lengths

Simulated Distribution of Sample Means

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2. The following segment lengths were selected in four different random samples of size .

If students work in small groups, indicate that each group member work on a different sample.

Lengths Sample A Lengths Sample B Lengths Sample C Lengths Sample D

a. Find the mean segment length of each sample.

Sample A mean is . ( . ); Sample B mean is . ( . ); Sample C mean is . ( . ); Sample D mean is

. ( . ).

The standard deviation of each sample is noted in parentheses as reference for part (b).

b. Find the mean and standard deviation of the four sample means.

The mean of the sample means is . , and the standard deviation of the sample means is . .

c. Interpret your answer to part (b) in terms of the variability in the sampling process.

A typical distance of a sample mean from the mean of the four samples ( . ) is . .

3. Two simulated sampling distributions of the mean segment lengths from random samples of size are displayed
below.

Distribution A Distribution B

a. Compare the two distributions with respect to shape, center, and spread.

Both distributions are mound shaped with the center a bit below , about . . The maximum mean segment
length in both is about . units, and the minimum is about . or . . Most of the sample means in both
distributions are between about and .

b. Distribution A has a mean of . , and Distribution B has a mean of . . How do these means compare to
the population mean of . ?

The mean segment lengths of the two simulated distributions of sample means are very close to the actual
mean segment length.

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c. Both Distribution A and Distribution B have a standard deviation . . Make a statement about the
distribution of sample means that makes use of this standard deviation.

Answers will vary. Possible answers include the following:

Almost all of the sample means in Distribution A are within two standard deviations of the mean of the
sample means, . to . . The same is true for the sample means in Distribution B; the sample
means are almost all from . to . .

A typical distance of a sample mean from the center of the sampling distribution is . .

4. The population distribution of all the segment lengths is shown in the dot plot below. How does the population
distribution compare to the two simulated sampling distributions of the sample means in Problem 3?

The distribution of all of the lengths is skewed right. Most of the lengths were , , or units. The simulated
sampling distributions of the sample means were both mound shaped, with the centers about the same, and not
like the shape of the population.

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Exercises 1–7: Random Segments

1 3 5
2 4 6
7 8 9
10 11
12 13
14 15
16 17 18
19 20 21
22
23 24 25
26
27
28 29
30 31
32 33
34 35
36 37 38
39 40 41
42
43 44 45 46
47 48
49 50
51 52
53
54 55
56 57 58
59 60
61 62 63
64 65
66 67
68 69 70
71 72 73
74
75 76 77 78
79 80 81
82 83
84 85
86
87 88 89
90 91 92
93
94 95 96
97
98 99 100

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Lesson 19: Sampling Variability in the Sample Mean

Student Outcomes
Students understand the term sampling variability in the context of estimating a population mean.
Students understand that the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the sample mean conveys
information about the anticipated accuracy of the sample mean as an estimate of the population mean.

Lesson Notes
This is the second of two lessons building on the concept of sampling variability in the sample mean first developed in
Grade 7 Module 5 Lessons 17–19. Students use simulation to approximate the sampling distribution of the sample mean
for random samples from a population. They also explore how the simulated sampling distribution provides information
about the anticipated estimation error when using a sample mean to estimate a population mean and how sample size
affects the distribution of the sample mean.

Classwork

This lesson uses simulation to approximate the sampling distribution of the sample mean for random samples from a
population, explores how the simulated sampling distribution provides insight into the anticipated estimation error when
using a sample mean to estimate a population mean, and covers how sample size affects the distribution of the sample
mean.

Exercises 1–6 (35 minutes): SAT Scores

In this lesson, consider giving students the population data, and have them use technology to take random samples
(without replacement) from the population. (Copy and paste the table into a spreadsheet, and send it to students.) A
typical set of commands to generate a random sample might be randsamp(SAT_scores, 20), where SAT_scores is the
name of the list containing the scores and 20 is the sample size. The random sample should refresh by clicking on the
command line or by using a command such as Control R.
Note that the sample answers for the simulated distributions typically display the means from about 50 random
samples. If it is possible to generate many more samples quickly with technology, students should do so. The basic
characteristics of a distribution of sample means (center, spread, mound shaped) do not change much as more samples
are added to the first 50 or so—which is suggested by contrasting Exercise 3 parts (a) and (b)—and students should
experience this themselves by generating their own distributions with many samples.
Part (a) of both Exercises 2 and 3 is important to discuss, as it highlights the difference in the distribution of the values in
the sample (the scores) and the distribution of the sample means (the mean of the scores) in a sample.
Have students share the simulated sampling distributions they generate for Exercise 3. Consider using screen
capture/sharing software, or have students walk around the room with Post-it notes looking at each student’s handheld
or computer screen and recording what they see about the distributions. Recognizing that all of the simulated
MP.2 distributions have essentially the same characteristics is a key factor in understanding why it is possible to make general
statements about how random samples behave in relation to the population.

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Exercises 1–6: SAT Scores

1. SAT scores vary a lot. The table on the next page displays the scores for students in one New York school
district for a given year.

Table 1: SAT Scores for District Students

a. Looking at the table above, how would you describe the population of SAT scores?

It is hard to tell. I see some numbers as low as and others in the 's. You cannot tell much from just
looking at the individual numbers.

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b. Jason used technology to draw a random sample of size from all of the scores and found a sample mean of
. What does this value represent in terms of the graph below?

Random Sample from District SAT Scores

This represents the average SAT score for the sample and indicates where the scores in the dot plot are
centered. If you computed the mean of the values for the SAT scores in the sample (i.e., one student had an
SAT score about , two had scores a bit over , one student scored about , and so on), you would
find the mean SAT scores for those students to be .

2. If you were to take many different random samples of from this population, describe what you think the
sampling distribution of these sample means would look like.

The sampling distribution of these samples may be centered on a value close to . The spread may be similar to
the example above, possibly from to .

3. Everyone in Jason’s class drew several random samples of size and found the mean SAT score. The plot below
displays the distribution of the mean SAT scores for their samples.

Random Sample from District SAT Scores

a. How does the simulated sampling distribution compare to your conjecture in Exercise 2? Explain any
differences.

I estimated the mean SAT score to be a bit higher than it seems to be from the simulated distribution, but my
estimate was not that far off. I thought the spread would range from to like in Jason’s sample, but
that was not a good estimate. I was thinking of the individual SAT scores in the sample and mixing them up
with the means of samples of scores, which is why my estimate was off.

b. Use technology to generate many more samples of size , and plot the means of those samples. Describe
the shape of the simulated distribution of sample mean SAT scores.

Answers will vary. The following displays an example of a simulated distribution of sample means from
random samples from district SAT scores:

The distribution is normal. The mean of the sample mean SAT scores appears to be around , and the
sample mean scores range from a little over to about .
MP.5

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c. How did the simulated distribution using more samples compare to the one you generated in Exercise 3?

The maxima and minima were nearly the same in both of the distributions, to and a little over
to . The mean SAT scores of the simulated distributions of sample means in both seemed to be about
.

d. What are the mean and standard deviation of the simulated distribution of the sample mean SAT scores you
found in part (b)? (Use technology and your simulated distribution of the sample means to find the values.)

The mean SAT score of the simulated distribution of sample means is . The standard deviation is . .

e. Write a sentence describing the distribution of sample means that uses the mean and standard deviation you
calculated in part (d).

Almost all of the SAT scores are within two standard deviations from the mean, from to .

4. Reflect on some of the simulated sampling distributions you have considered in previous lessons.
a. Make a conjecture about how you think the size of the sample might affect the distribution of the sample SAT
means.

The larger the sample size, the smaller the spread of the distribution of sample means.

b. To test the conjecture, investigate the sample sizes , , , , and the simulated distribution of sample
means from Exercise 3. Divide the sample sizes among your group members, and use technology to simulate
sampling distributions of mean SAT scores for samples of the different sizes. Find the mean and standard
deviation of each simulated sampling distribution.

The following represent simulated distributions of sample means of district SAT scores for different size
random samples:

Mean ; standard deviation is . . Mean ; standard deviation is . .

MP.5

Mean ; standard deviation is . . Mean ; standard deviation is . .

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Mean ; standard deviation is . .

MP.5

c. How does the sample size seem to affect the simulated distributions of the sample SAT mean scores? Include
the simulated distribution from part (b) of Exercise 3 in your response. Why do you think this is true?

As the sample size increases, the spread decreases. The standard deviation went from for a sample of size
to about for a sample of size . The means of the sampling distributions of mean SAT scores varied
from for the distribution for samples of size to for samples of size . I would expect that a
bigger sample would be more likely to look a lot like the population, and so bigger samples would not tend to
be as different from one another as smaller samples. Because of this, the sample means would not differ as
much from sample to sample for bigger samples.

5.
a. For each of the sample sizes, consider how the standard deviation seems to be related to the range of the
sample means in the simulated distributions of the sample SAT means you found in Exercise 4.

In each case, nearly all of the sample means are within two standard deviations of the mean or are a normal
distribution.

b. How do your answers to part (a) compare to the answers from other groups?

Everyone had simulated sampling distributions that looked fairly alike and were centered in about the same
place. The sample means for each sampling distribution were typically within two standard deviations of the
mean of the simulated sampling distributions. The distributions were normal.

6.
a. Make a graph of the distribution of the population consisting of the SAT scores for all of the students.

Possible response below of a distribution of the SAT scores for district students:

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b. Find the mean of the distribution of SAT scores. How does it compare to the mean of the sampling
distributions you have been simulating?

The mean SAT score for the students in the district is . or . This is close to the means of the
sampling distributions, even for fairly small samples.

Closing (5minutes)
Why do we call the sampling distributions we generated simulated sampling distribution of sample means
rather than the sampling distribution of sample means?
The sampling distribution of sample means is the distribution of all the possible sample means for a
sample of a given size (i.e., every possible combination of the population values for that size). The
simulated sampling distribution is a subset of the actual sampling distribution that, because it is
random, approximates the actual sampling distribution.
If you had a simulated distribution of the mean SAT scores for random samples of size 100, how do you think
the distribution would compare to the distribution you found for samples of size 50?
The mean would be somewhere around 475, and the standard deviation would be smaller, so the
values (the sample means) would be closer together.
Ask students to summarize the main ideas of the lesson in writing or with a neighbor. Use this opportunity to informally
assess comprehension of the lesson. The Lesson Summary below offers some important ideas that should be included.

Lesson Summary
For a given sample, you can find the sample mean.

There is variability in the sample mean. The value of the sample mean varies from one random sample
to another.
A graph of the distribution of sample means from many different random samples is a simulated
sampling distribution.
Sample means from random samples tend to cluster around the value of the population mean. That is,
the simulated sampling distribution of the sample mean will be centered close to the value of the
population mean.
The variability in the sample mean decreases as the sample size increases.
Most sample means are within two standard deviations of the mean of the simulated sampling
distribution.

Exit Ticket (5 minutes)

Lesson 19: Sampling Variability in the Sample Mean 269

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Name Date

Lesson 19: Sampling Variability in the Sample Mean

Exit Ticket

1. Describe the difference between a population distribution, a sample distribution, and a simulated sampling
distribution, and make clear how they are different.

2. Use the standard deviation and mean of the sampling distribution to describe an interval that includes most of the
sample means.

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

1. Describe the difference between a population distribution, a sample distribution, and a simulated sampling
distribution, and make clear how they are different.

The distribution of the elements in a population (the SAT scores for students in a district) is a population distribution;
the distribution of the elements in a random sample from that population (a subset of a given size chosen at random
from the SAT scores) is a sample distribution; a simulated distribution of sample means for many random samples of
a given size chosen from the population (the means of different random samples of the same size of students’ SAT
scores) is a simulated sampling distribution.

Some students might also suggest that the meaning of sampling distribution of all samples is the samples of a given
size selected from a population. This would be the distribution of the means of every possible sample that might be
chosen.

2. Use the standard deviation and mean of the sampling distribution to describe an interval that includes most of the
sample means.

Sample response: Typically, most of the means of the different random samples of the same size chosen from a
population will be within two standard deviations of the mean or the mean ± standard deviations.

Problem Set Sample Solutions

1. Which of the following will have the smallest standard deviation? Explain your reasoning.

A sampling distribution of sample means for samples of size:

a. b. c.

The largest sample size, , will have the smallest standard deviation because as the sample size increases, the
variability in the sample mean decreases.

2. In light of the distributions of sample means you have investigated in the lesson, comment on the statements below
for random samples of size chosen from the district SAT scores.
a. Josh claimed he took a random sample of size and had a sample mean score of .

A mean score of seems very unlikely. None of the samples we have investigated had a sample mean
score that low.

b. Sarfina stated she took a random sample of size and had a sample mean of .

This seems plausible for the simulated distributions of sample mean scores; was high, but still some of
the random samples had mean scores greater than .

c. Ana announced that it would be pretty rare for the mean SAT score in a random sample to be more than
three standard deviations from the mean SAT score of .

Given that the sample means in nearly all of the simulated distributions of the sample means were usually
within two standard deviations from the mean, Ana is correct. It could happen, but it would not be usual.

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3. Refer to your answers for Exercise 4, and then comment on each of the following:
a. A random sample of size produced a mean SAT score of .

A mean score of was less than any of the sample means in the simulated sampling distribution of sample
means for samples of size , so this seems unlikely.

b. A random sample of size produced a mean SAT score of .

A mean score of was within two standard deviations of the mean for random samples of size , so it
could have come from one of the samples.

c. For what sample sizes was a sample mean SAT score of plausible? Explain your thinking.

A sample mean of occurred in the simulated sampling distributions for samples of size and but not
at all in the simulated distributions for samples of size , , and . So, it seems like was a plausible
outcome for samples of size and .

4. Explain the difference between the sample mean and the mean of the sampling distribution.

Each sample of SAT scores had a mean SAT score, which is the sample mean. Then, all of those sample means
formed a distribution of sample means, and we found the mean of that set, the mean of the sampling distribution of
the sample mean—the mean of the means of the different samples.

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Lesson 20: Margin of Error When Estimating a Population

Mean

Student Outcomes
Students use data from a random sample to estimate a population mean.
Students calculate and interpret margin of error in context.
Students know the relationship between sample size and margin of error in the context of estimating a
population mean.

Lesson Notes
Lessons 16 and 17 introduced the concept of margin of error in the context of estimating a population proportion. The
concept of margin of error may have been difficult to grasp for those students who see the word error and think
“mistake.” Lessons 16 and 17 showed that margin of error is interpreted as the farthest away from the value of the
population proportion that an estimate is likely to be. The margin of error was also used to calculate an interval of
plausible values for the population proportion.
In this lesson, margin of error is first developed visually and then estimated by twice the standard deviation of the
sampling distribution of the sample proportion. This, and the next lesson, develops the idea of the margin of error when
sample data are used to estimate a population mean.

Classwork
Example 1 (5 minutes): Describing a Population of Numerical Data
Provide each student the page of 100 numbered rectangles located at the end of this teacher lesson. For this example,
let students work in pairs to answer the questions. Use whole-class discussion to develop those answers.

Example 1: Describing a Population of Numerical Data

The course project in a computer science class was to create computer games of various levels of difficulty that had
ratings on a scale from (easy) to (difficult). We will examine a representation of the data resulting from this project.
Working in pairs, your teacher will give you a page that contains rectangles of various sizes.

a. What do you think the rectangles represent in the context of the computer games?

Each rectangle represents a computer game.

b. What do you think the sizes of the rectangles represent in the context of the computer games?

The size of the rectangle, or the number of squares that comprise it, represents the difficulty rating of the
computer game. The minimum rating is ; the maximum is .

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c. Why do you think the rectangles are numbered from to instead of from to ?

Anticipating that a random sample will be taken later in the lesson, it is easiest if all the labels have the same
number of digits. So, is conveniently designated as . The integers from to are represented by ,
, and so on.

Exploratory Challenge 1/Exercises 1–3 (5 minutes): Estimate the Population Mean Rating
Let students work with their partners to answer the questions.

Exploratory Challenge 1/Exercises 1–3: Estimate the Population Mean Rating

1. Working with your partner, discuss how you would calculate the mean rating of all computer games (the
population mean).

To find the population mean, all ratings would have to be added and then divided by . This is not hard, but
it can be a tedious calculation to make. If students do not think adding numbers is too bad, suggest that the
number of computer games might have been , .

2. Discuss how you might select a random sample to estimate the population mean rating of all computer games.

A good answer would include stating a reasonable sample size, e.g., or more. It should also state that a random
number table or a calculator with a random number generator should be used to generate the random two-digit
numbers. The generated numbers identify the rectangles (computer games) that would be chosen for the sample.

3. Calculate an estimate of the population mean rating of all computer games based on a random sample of size
. Your estimate is called a sample mean, and it is denoted by . Use the following random numbers to select
your sample:

The respective ratings for the given random numbers are , , , , , , , , , and . Based on this sample,
the estimate for the population mean rating is , or . .

Exploratory Challenge 2/Exercises 4–6 (10 minutes): Build a Distribution of Sample Means
Let students work with their partners to generate four sets of random numbers. Prepare a number line for the class to
post their sample means. Be sure to provide enough room on the number line so the sample means do not overlap.

Exploratory Challenge 2/Exercises 4–6: Build a Distribution of Sample Means

4. Work in pairs. Using a table of random digits or a calculator with a random number generator, generate four sets of
ten random numbers. Use these sets of random numbers to identify four random samples of size . Calculate the
sample mean rating for each of your four random samples.
MP.5
Answers will vary. To build a distribution, you should have or more randomly generated sample mean estimates.
So, if you have between and students in your class, then to pairs should generate about four sample
mean estimates, which will provide the right number of estimates for the distribution.

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5. Write your sample means on separate sticky notes, and post them on a number line that your teacher has prepared
for your class.

Be sure that there is enough length on the number line so that the sticky notes do not overlap.

6. The actual population mean rating of all computer games is . . Does your class distribution of sample means
center at . ? Discuss why it does or does not.

A possible reason why their sample means do not center at . is that they need more samples. They may suggest
that they were very unlucky and got a distribution that centered well above or well below . . That is possible, but
it is highly unlikely.

Note: There is a theoretical result that says, for random samples, the expected value of the sample mean is the
mean value of the population from which the sample was taken. But that theory is not part of the curriculum.
However, students may reason that if a population is divided into samples of equal size, then the mean of sample
means is the same as the mean of the whole. They might give an example, such as the following: “Consider four
samples each of size three (e.g., , , ; , , ; , , ; , , ). The respective means are , , , and whose
mean is their sum divided by , precisely the same as the sum of the values divided by .” Students might then
argue that this would also apply to random samples and then go on to try to demonstrate conceptually that taking
means produces values that tend to congregate or balance around the population mean.

Example 2 (5 minutes): Margin of Error

This example has students visualize the concept of margin of error. Using the dot plot, they (roughly) determine the
number of rating points within which almost all the sample means fall (i.e., within that number of points from the
population mean 7.5).
This example should also clarify the meaning of the word error in the phrase margin of error insofar as the word does not
imply mistake but refers to estimation error (i.e., the error that is made when a sample is used to estimate a population
value).
Read through the example as a class, and convey the following:
Almost all of the sample means are between 4 and 11. That is, almost all are roughly within 3.5 rating points of
the population mean 7.5. The value 3.5 is a visual estimate of the margin of error. Highlight this description
with students.
Although not a formal definition of margin of error, it is a visual representation that motivates students’
understanding of the term.
It is not really an error in the sense of “mistake.” Rather, it is how far the estimate for the population mean is
likely to be from the actual value of the population mean.
Pose the question presented in the text to the class.
Based on the class distribution of sample means, is the visual estimate of margin of error close to 3.5?
Discuss this question using the distribution of the sample means from the class. It is anticipated that
the margin of error is also close to 3.5. If it is very different, examine the results, and possibly examine
what values seemed to make this estimate different.

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Example 2: Margin of Error

Suppose that random samples, each of size ten, produced the sample means displayed in the following dot plot.

Note that almost all of the sample means are between and . That is, almost all are roughly within . rating points
of the population mean . . The value . is a visual estimate of the margin of error. It is not really an “error” in the
sense of a “mistake.” Rather, it is how far our estimate for the population mean is likely to be from the actual value of
the population mean.

Based on the class distribution of sample means, is the visual estimate of margin of error close to . ?

Example 3 (5 minutes): Standard Deviation as a Refinement of Margin of Error

This example refines the concept of margin of error by using the standard deviation as the measure of spread. Students
need to calculate the standard deviation of the distribution of sample means and should note that twice the standard
deviation is close to their visual estimate of margin of error.
Students may ask where the doubling came from. Remind them of their lesson on the normal distribution. The standard
deviation of the sample mean variable is called standard error. (A formula for standard error follows in the next lesson.)
The normal distribution of sample means has 95% of the sample means within two standard deviations of the
population mean.
Suppose that the margin of error is 3.5. The interpretation of this is that plausible values for the population mean rating
are within 3.5 points from their mean estimate of 7.5 points (i.e., from 4 to 11 rating points). Discuss these concepts
with students. The following paragraphs summarize these concepts and should provide students with an explanation of
margin of error they can use moving forward.

Example 3: Standard Deviation as a Refinement of Margin of Error

Note that the margin of error is measuring how spread out the sample means are relative to the value of the actual
population mean. From previous lessons, you know that the standard deviation is a good measure of spread. So, rather
than producing a visual estimate for the margin of error from the distribution of sample means, another approach is to
use the standard deviation of the sample means as a measure of spread. For example, the standard deviation of the
sample means in the example above is . . Note that if you double . , you get a value for margin of error close to the
visual estimate of . .

Another way to estimate margin of error is to use two times the standard deviation of a distribution of sample means.
For the above example, because ( . ) = . , the refined margin of error (based on the standard deviation of sample
means) is . rating points.

An interpretation of the margin of error is that plausible values for the population mean rating are from . . to
. + . (i.e., . to . rating points).

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Exploratory Challenge 3/Exercise 7 (8 minutes)

It may be somewhat tedious for students to enter approximately 50 numbers into their calculators, but it goes faster if
they work in pairs, with one student reading the entries while the other enters them in a calculator. Provide students an
MP.2
& opportunity to summarize the standard deviation of the class distribution and the interpretation of it as a margin of
MP.5 error.

Exploratory Challenge 3/Exercise 7

7. Calculate and interpret the margin of error for your estimate of the population mean rating of computer games
based on the standard deviation of your class distribution of sample means.

Answers will vary based on the class distribution of sample means. Sample response: Suppose the sample mean is
. and the standard deviation is . . Because ( . ) = . , the margin of error is . rating points. This means
that the plausible values for the population mean rating are from . . to . + . , or from . to rating
points.

Closing (2 minutes)
Ask students to summarize the main ideas of the lesson in writing or with a neighbor. Use this opportunity to informally
assess comprehension of the lesson. The Lesson Summary below offers some important ideas that should be included.

Lesson Summary
This lesson revisited margin of error. Previously, you estimated a population proportion of successes and described
the accuracy of the estimate by its margin of error. This lesson also focused on margin of error but in the context of
estimating the mean of a population of numerical data.

Margin of error was estimated in two ways.

The first was through a visual estimation in which you judged the amount of spread in the distribution
of sample means.

The second was more formalized by defining margin of error as twice the standard deviation of the
distribution of sample means.

Exit Ticket (5 minutes)

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Name Date

Lesson 20: Margin of Error When Estimating a Population Mean

Exit Ticket

At the beginning of the school year, school districts implemented a new physical fitness program. A student project
involves monitoring how long it takes eleventh graders to run a mile. The following data were taken midyear.
a. What is the estimate of the population mean time it currently takes eleventh graders to run a mile based on
the following data (minutes) from a random sample of ten students?
6.5, 8.4, 8.1, 6.8, 8.4, 7.7, 9.1, 7.1, 9.4, 7.5

b. The students doing the project collected 50 random samples of 10 students each and calculated the sample
means. The standard deviation of their distribution of 50 sample means was 0.6 minutes. Based on this
standard deviation, what is the margin of error for their sample mean estimate? Explain your answer.

c. Interpret the margin of error you found in part (b) in the context of this problem.

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

At the beginning of the school year, school districts implemented a new physical fitness program. A student project
involves monitoring how long it takes eleventh graders to run a mile. The following data were taken midyear.

a. What is the estimate of the population mean time it currently takes eleventh graders to run a mile based on
the following data (minutes) from a random sample of ten students?

. , . , . , . , . , . , . , . , . , .

The mean of the ten times is . minutes.

b. The students doing the project collected random samples of students each and calculated the sample
means. The standard deviation of their distribution of sample means was . minutes. Based on this
standard deviation, what is the margin of error for their sample mean estimate? Explain your answer.

The margin of error is twice the standard deviation of the sampling distribution.

Since ( . ) = . , the margin of error is . minutes.

c. Interpret the margin of error you found in part (b) in the context of this problem.

Because . . = . and . + . = . , plausible values for the population mean time it takes
eleventh graders to run the mile midyear are between . to . minutes.

Problem Set Sample Solutions

1. Suppose you are interested in knowing how many text messages eleventh graders send daily.

Describe the steps that you would take to estimate the mean number of text messages per day sent by all eleventh
graders at a school.

If I could not get responses from all eleventh graders, I would base my estimate on the responses from a random
sample of students. I would need to find a record or list of all eleventh graders. If I had this list, I would number all
of the students on it and use random numbers to generate a random selection of students. For example, if there are
students, I would number all of the students on the list from to and generate a selection of students using
the random number generator on my calculator. If my sample is students, I would generate random numbers
from to , identify the students based on the random numbers, and ask the students how many text
messages they send during a school day. I would then find the mean of those responses. The mean from this
sample of students would be my estimate of the mean number of text messages sent by eleventh graders.

2. Suppose that random samples based on ten student responses to the question, “How many text messages do
you send per day?” resulted in the sample means (rounded) shown below.

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a. Draw a dot plot for the distribution of sample means.

b. Based on your dot plot, would you be surprised if the actual mean number of text messages sent per day for
all eleventh graders in the school is . ? Why or why not?

No. The distribution appears to be balanced around , so . is plausible.

3. Determine a visual estimate of the margin of error when a random sample of size is used to estimate the
population mean number of text messages sent per day.

Almost all sample means are roughly within text messages of the population mean . . So, visually, the
margin of error is text messages on average.

4. The standard deviation of the above distribution of sample mean number of text messages sent per day is . . Use
this to calculate and interpret the margin of error for an estimate of the population mean number of text messages
sent daily by eleventh graders (based on a random sample of size from this population).

Using the standard deviation of the sampling distribution, since ( . ) = , the margin of error is text
messages. Note that the visual estimate is quite a bit smaller than the one using the standard deviation. However,
they are the same if the visual estimate were to include all of the sample means from to .

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Example 1: Describing a Population of Numerical Data

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Lesson 21: Margin of Error When Estimating a Population

Mean

Student Outcomes
Students use data from a random sample to estimate a population mean.
Students calculate and interpret margin of error in context.
Students know the relationship between sample size and margin of error in the context of estimating a
population mean.

Lesson Notes
In the previous lesson, students estimated the population mean using the sample mean based on a random sample of
size . To determine how accurate their estimate was, they had to create a sampling distribution of the sample mean
based on computing sample means for a large number of random samples. Finally, they computed the margin of error
as twice the standard deviation of the sample means. Although the process was a lot of work, students developed a
conceptual understanding of margin of error.

In this lesson, students use a formula for the standard deviation of the sample mean, , where is the standard

deviation of the sample and is the size of the sample. The margin of error, 2 , is based on a single random sample,
thus making the work much easier.

The formula is used to calculate the standard deviation of the sample mean when the mean and the standard

( )
deviation of the population are stated. Previously, the formula was used to calculate the standard deviation

of a sample proportion when the number of successes was known. In both formulas, as gets larger, the standard
deviation gets smaller. Both methods are applications of the central limit theorem, which says that regardless of the
shape of the population from which samples are taken, the distributions of both the sample means and the sample
proportions are approximately normal.

Classwork

This lesson continues to discuss using the sample mean as an estimate of the population mean and judging its accuracy
based on the concept of margin of error. In the last lesson, the margin of error was defined as twice the standard
deviation of the sampling distribution of the sample mean. In this lesson, a formula will be given for the margin of error
that allows you to calculate the margin of error from a single random sample rather than having to create a sampling
distribution of sample means.

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Example 1 (5 minutes): Estimating a Population Mean Using a Random Sample

Give students a few minutes to read the introductory material of this example, and remind them of the process they
used in the previous lesson to get an estimate of margin of error. Then, write the formula for margin of error on the
MP.2 board, making sure that students understand that this allows them to calculate an estimate of the margin of error using
data from a single random sample.

Example 1: Estimating a Population Mean Using a Random Sample

Provide a one-sentence summary of our findings from the previous lesson.

We took lots of random samples of computer game ratings, computed their means, displayed the distribution of their
means, and, finally, computed a margin of error.

What were drawbacks of the calculation method?

Many samples are required. If we had increased the sample size or the number of samples, the
time required to take all those samples, calculate their means, and analyze the distribution would Scaffolding:
have increased significantly. For struggling students,
the bigger the value of ,
In practice, you do not have to use that process to find the margin of error. Fortunately, just as
the smaller the standard
was the case with estimating a population proportion, there are some general results that lead to deviation. From a
a formula that allows you to estimate the margin of error using a single sample. You can then population where = 2 if
gauge the accuracy of your estimate of the population mean by calculating the margin of error = 36, the standard
using the sample standard deviation.
deviation is ; however, if
the sample is larger, say
The standard deviation of the distribution of sample means is approximated by , 81, the standard deviation
where is the standard deviation of the sample and is the size of the sample.
would be .
For advanced students,
when a sample is taken
Exercises 1–5 (10 minutes) from a population, the
Have students work independently on the calculations required to answer Exercises 1–3. mean of the sample is the
Then, work through Exercises 4 and 5 as a class. same as the mean of the
population, but the
variance (square of the
Exercises 1–5 standard deviation) is only
1. Suppose a random sample of size ten produced the following ratings in the computer games
as large. Regardless of
rating example in the last lesson: , , , , , , , , , . Estimate the population
mean rating based on these ten sampled ratings. the shape of the
population, the
= . distribution of the sample
The sample mean estimate for the population mean rating is . rating points. means approaches normal
(central limit theorem).

2. Calculate the sample standard deviation. Round your answer to three decimal places. The variance is ;
The sample standard deviation is . rating points. therefore, by applying a
square root, the standard
deviation is .

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3. Use the formula given above to calculate the approximate standard deviation of the distribution of sample means.
Round your answer to three decimal places.
.
= .

The standard deviation of the distribution of sample means is . rating points.

4. Recall that the margin of error is twice the standard deviation of the distribution of sample means. What is the
value of the margin of error based on this sample? Write a sentence interpreting the value of the margin of error in
the context of this problem on computer game ratings.

( . )= .
The margin of error is . rating points. The population mean rating for the computer games is likely to be
within . rating points of the sample mean estimate . .

5. Based on the sample mean and the value of the margin of error, what is an interval of plausible values for the
population mean?

Because . . = . and . + . = . , plausible values for the population mean rating are
from . to . rating points.

Exercises 6–13 (20 minutes): The Gettysburg Address

Distribute a copy of the Gettysburg Address to each student in the class. (A copy is provided at the end of this lesson.)
Have students work individually or in pairs to answer the questions in this set of exercises. Then, discuss the answers to
the last question as a class. Consider challenging students to find the length of a typical word in the Gettysburg Address.
After students do this exercise by hand (using a calculator), consider showing them an applet that displays three
different estimates regarding the Gettysburg Address. One is the mean word length. The other two are estimating
population proportions; one is the proportion of long words, defined as words with more than four letters, and the other
is the proportion of nouns. The applet can be found at the following site:
http://www.rossmanchance.com/applets/GettysburgSample/GettysburgSample.html.
This applet may require an updated version of an operating system to work correctly. If the applet does not work for all
students due to a computer’s operating system or network settings, attempt to demonstrate it for the whole class, as it
is an effective way to complement how students obtained their answers in the exercises. The applet allows the user to
specify a sample size (ten in this exercise) and the number of samples desired. Note that only one sample is to be used
to answer the questions in this exercise set.
To generate a sampling distribution for the sample mean (or proportion), enter a large number in the Num samples box,
such as 500. The Animate box shows the observations for each sample taken and the resulting values of the statistics
(mean or proportion) plotted on a histogram. (Unclick the Animate box at any time to see the total results immediately.)
Students should begin work on Exercise 6. Exercises 7–13 are provided as scaffolding if necessary. Students should be
able to clearly describe and fully implement a plan on their own. Sample responses are provided but will vary.

Exercises 6–13: The Gettysburg Address

The Gettysburg Address is considered one of history’s greatest speeches. Some students noticed that the speech was
very short (about words, depending on the version) and wondered if the words were also relatively short. To
estimate the mean length of words in the population of words in the Gettysburg Address, work with a partner on the
following steps. Your teacher will give you a copy of the Gettysburg Address with words numbered from to .

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6. Develop and describe a plan for collecting data from the Gettysburg Address and determining the typical length of a
word. Then, implement your plan, and report your findings.

Many answers are possible. Every answer should include the following:

A description of how a word sample is chosen, making sure to describe how randomization occurs

The actual sample chosen

Calculations of the sample mean, standard deviation, and margin of error

Interpretations in context of the sample mean, standard deviation, and margin of error.

7. Use a random number table or a calculator with a random number generator to obtain ten different random
numbers from to .
MP.5
Student answers will vary. Sample solutions to Exercises 8-12 will use the following values.

8. Use the random numbers found in Exercise 7 as identification numbers for the words that will make up your random
sample of words from the Gettysburg Address. Make a list of the ten words in your sample.
the The
resolve nobly
score a
consecrate The
final endure

9. Count the number of letters in each of the ten words in your sample.

10. Calculate the sample mean number of letters for the ten words in your sample.

= .

The mean of the ten word lengths from Exercise 9 is . letters.

11. Calculate the sample standard deviation of the number of letters for the ten words in your sample. Round your
answer to three decimal places.

The standard deviation of the ten word lengths from Exercise 9 is . letters.

12. Use the sample standard deviation from Exercise 11 to calculate the margin of error associated with using your
sample mean as an estimate of the population mean. Round your answer to three decimal places.
.
.

The margin of error of this estimate is approximately . letters.

13. Write a few sentences describing what you have learned about the mean length of the population of words in
the Gettysburg Address. Be sure to include an interpretation of the margin of error.
MP.2
We estimate the mean word length of words in the Gettysburg Address to be . letters. The margin of error of this
estimate is . letters. So, plausible values for the population mean word length are from . to . letters.

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Closing (3 minutes)
Ask students to summarize the main ideas of the lesson in writing or with a neighbor. Use this as an opportunity to
informally assess comprehension of the lesson. The Lesson Summary below offers some important ideas that should be
included.

Lesson Summary
When using the sample mean to estimate a population mean, it is important to know something about
how accurate that estimate might be.

Accuracy can be described by the margin of error.

The margin of error can be estimated using data from a single random sample (without the need to
create a simulated sampling distribution) by using the formula , where is the standard
deviation of a single sample and is the sample size.

Exit Ticket (7 minutes)

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Name Date

Lesson 21: Margin of Error When Estimating a Population Mean

Exit Ticket

A Health Group study recommends that the total weight of a male student’s backpack should not be more than 15% of
his body weight. For example, if a student weighs 170 pounds, his backpack should not weigh more than 25.5 pounds.
Suppose that ten randomly selected eleventh-grade boys produced the following data:

Body Weight 155 136 197 174 165 165 150 142 176 157
Backpack Weight 29.8 27.2 32.5 34.8 31.8 28.8 31.1 26.0 28.3 31.4

a. For each student, calculate backpack weight as a percentage of body weight (round to one decimal place).

b. Based on the data in part (a), estimate the mean percentage of body weight that eleventh-grade boys carry in
their backpacks.

c. Find the margin of error for your estimate of part (b). Round your answer to three decimal places. Explain
how you determined your answer.

d. Comment on the amount of weight eleventh-grade boys at this school are carrying in their backpacks
compared to the recommendation by the Health Group.

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

A Health Group study recommends that the total weight of a male student’s backpack should not be more than % of
his body weight. For example, if a student weighs pounds, his backpack should not weigh more than . pounds.
Suppose that ten randomly selected eleventh-grade boys produced the following data:

Body Weight
Backpack Weight . . . . . . . . . .

a. For each student, calculate backpack weight as a percentage of body weight (round to one decimal place).

Body Weight
Backpack Weight . . . . . . . . . .
Percentage . . . . . . . . . .

b. Based on the data in part (a), estimate the mean percentage of body weight that eleventh-grade boys carry in
their backpacks.

The sample mean percentage is . percentage points.

c. Find the margin of error for your estimate of part (b). Round your answer to three decimal places. Explain
how you determined your answer.
.
.

The standard deviation of the percentages is . percent, so the margin of error is approximately
. percentage points.

d. Comment on the amount of weight eleventh-grade boys at this school are carrying in their backpacks
compared to the recommendation by the Health Group.

. % . %= . % and . %+ . %= . %

Based on the data in this study, plausible percentages of mean body weight percentage that eleventh graders
are carrying in their backpacks are . % to . %. The interval ( . %, . %) is above the
recommended % maximum. On average, eleventh-grade boys at this school are carrying too much weight
in their backpacks.

Problem Set Sample Solutions

1. A new brand of hot dog claims to have a lower sodium content than the leading brand.
a. A random sample of ten of these new hot dogs results in the following sodium measurements (in milligrams).

Estimate the population mean sodium content of this new brand of hot dog based on the ten sampled
measurements.

Based on the data, an estimate for the population mean sodium content of this new brand of hot dog is
. of sodium.

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b. Calculate the margin of error associated with your estimate of the population mean from part (a). Round
your answer to three decimal places.
.
.

The margin of error is approximately . .

c. The mean sodium content of the leading brand of hot dogs is known to be . Based on the sample
mean and the value of the margin of error for the new brand, is a mean sodium content of a
plausible value for the mean sodium content of the new brand? Comment on whether you think the new
brand of hot dog has a lower sodium content on average than the leading brand.

. . = . and . + . = .

Plausible values for population mean sodium content are between . and . . This
interval is well below , which is the sodium content for the leading brand. So, the new hot dog brand
has lower mean sodium content.

d. Another random sample of new-brand hot dogs is taken. Should this larger sample of hot dogs produce a
more accurate estimate of the population mean sodium content than the sample of size ? Explain your
answer by appealing to the formula for margin of error.

The margin of error will be smaller. Sample size is in the denominator of the formula for margin of error.

2. It is well known that astronauts increase their height in space missions because of the lack of gravity. A question is
whether or not we increase height here on Earth when we are put into a situation where the effect of gravity is
minimized. In particular, do people grow taller when confined to a bed? A study was done in which the heights of
six men were taken before and after they were confined to bed for three full days.
a. The before-after differences in height measurements (in millimeters) for the six men were

. . . . . . .
Assuming that the men in this study are representative of the population of all men, what is an estimate of
the population mean increase in height after three full days in bed?

Based on the given data, an estimate of the population mean increase in height after three full days in bed is
. .

b. Calculate the margin of error associated with your estimate of the population mean from part (a). Round
your answer to three decimal places.
.
.

The margin of error is approximated by . .

c. Based on your sample mean and the margin of error from parts (a) and (b), what are plausible values for the
population mean height increase for all men who stay in bed for three full days?

. . = . and . + . = .

Plausible values for the population mean height increase for all men who stay in bed for three full days are
those between . and . .

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Exercises 6–13: The Gettysburg Address

001 Four 045 any 089 nation 133 our 177 they 221 full 265 perish
002 score 046 nation, 090 might 134 poor 178 who 222 measure 266 from
003 and 047 so 091 live. 135 power 179 fought 223 of 267 the
004 seven 048 conceived 092 It 136 to 180 here 224 devotion, 268 earth.
005 years 049 and 093 is 137 add 181 have 225 that
006 ago, 050 so 094 altogether 138 or 182 thus 226 we
007 our 051 dedicated, 095 fitting 139 detract. 183 far 227 here
008 fathers 052 can 096 and 140 The 184 so 228 highly
009 brought 053 long 097 proper 141 world 185 nobly 229 resolve
010 forth 054 endure. 098 that 142 will 186 advanced. 230 that
011 upon 055 We 099 we 143 little 187 It 231 these
012 this 056 are 100 should 144 note, 188 is 232 dead
013 continent 057 met 101 do 145 nor 189 rather 233 shall
014 a 058 on 102 this. 146 long 190 for 234 not
015 new 059 a 103 But, 147 remember, 191 us 235 have
016 nation; 060 great 104 in 148 what 192 to 236 died
017 conceived 061 battlefield 105 a 149 we 193 be 237 in
018 in 062 of 106 larger 150 say 194 here 238 vain,
019 liberty, 063 that 107 sense, 151 here, 195 dedicated 239 that
020 and 064 war. 108 we 152 but 196 to 240 this
021 dedicated 065 We 109 cannot 153 it 197 the 241 nation,
022 to 066 have 110 dedicate, 154 can 198 great 242 under
023 the 067 come 111 we 155 never 199 task 243 God,
024 proposition 068 to 112 cannot 156 forget 200 remaining 244 shall
025 that 069 dedicate 113 consecrate, 157 what 201 before 245 have
026 all 070 a 114 we 158 they 202 us, 246 a
027 men 071 portion 115 cannot 159 did 203 that 247 new
028 are 072 of 116 hallow 160 here. 204 from 248 birth
029 created 073 that 117 this 161 It 205 these 249 of
030 equal. 074 field 118 ground. 162 is 206 honored 250 freedom,
031 Now 075 as 119 The 163 for 207 dead 251 and
032 we 076 a 120 brave 164 us 208 we 252 that
033 are 077 final 121 men, 165 the 209 take 253 government
034 engaged 078 resting 122 living 166 living, 210 increased 254 of
035 in 079 place 123 and 167 rather, 211 devotion 255 the
036 a 080 for 124 dead, 168 to 212 to 256 people,
037 great 081 those 125 who 169 be 213 that 257 by
038 civil 082 who 126 struggled 170 dedicated 214 cause 258 the
039 war, 083 here 127 here 171 here 215 for 259 people,
040 testing 084 gave 128 have 172 to 216 which 260 for
041 whether 085 their 129 consecrated 173 the 217 they 261 the
042 that 086 lives 130 it, 174 unfinished 218 gave 262 people,
043 nation, 087 that 131 far 175 work 219 the 263 shall
044 or 088 that 132 above 176 which 220 last 264 not

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Lesson 22: Evaluating Reports Based on Data from a Sample

Student Outcomes
Students interpret margin of error from reports that appear in newspapers and other media.
Students critique and evaluate statements in published reports that involve estimating a population proportion
or a population mean.

Lesson Notes
In this lesson, students read and comment on examples from the media (newspaper and Internet) that involve
estimating a population proportion or a population mean. Students calculate the margin of error and compare their
calculations with the published results. In addition, students interpret the margin of error in the context of the article
and comment on how the survey was conducted.

Classwork
Exercises 1–5 (12 minutes): Election Results
Before starting these exercises, consider discussing the formulas for the margin of error for estimating both a population
mean and a population proportion. In addition, review the importance of conducting a survey using a random sample.
Students should work in small groups (two or three students per group). Allow about 10 minutes for students to
complete Exercises 1 through 5. Then, discuss answers as a class.
Scaffolding:
Exercises 1–5: Election Results As students work to
articulate critiques, it may
The following is part of an article that appeared in a newspaper:
be useful to have sentence
With the election for governor still more than a year away, a new poll shows the race is frames or sentence stems
already close. The Republican governor had %, and the Democratic challenger had
to organize and begin their
% in a poll released Tuesday of registered voters.
writing.
“That’s within the poll’s margin of error of . percentage points, making it essentially a
toss-up,” said the poll’s director.
In particular, if students
struggle with interpreting
1. Why don’t the two percentages add up to %? the margin of error,
The other % might be undecided voters or voters who want to vote for a third-party display an example
candidate. sentence frame on the
classroom board for
2. What is meant by the margin of error of . percentage points? students to refer to during
the lesson.
It is unlikely that the estimate of % of the proportion of all voters who would vote for the
MP.2 Republican candidate will be farther from the actual population proportion than the margin Use the sample response
of error of . %, or the proportion of all voters who would vote for the Republican from Exercise 2 as a guide,
candidate is likely between . % and . %. with ____ (empty spaces)
for percentages.

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3. Using the sample size of and the proportion . , calculate the margin of error associated with the estimate of
the proportion of all registered voters who would vote for the Republican governor.

4. Why did the poll director say that the election is “essentially a toss-up”?

Even though the sample proportion who preferred the Republican governor is . , this is just an estimate, and it
might be too high by as much as . . If this was the case, the Democratic challenger would win.

5. If the sample size had been , registered voters, and the results stated % would vote for the Republican
governor, and % said they would vote for the Democratic challenger, what would the margin of error have been?
Could the director still say that the election was a toss-up?

The margin of error would be . . The director could still say the election was a toss-up.

Exercises 6–8 (10 minutes): Chocolate Chip Claim

In these exercises, students estimate a population mean by finding a margin of error. While introducing the scenario of
the Nabisco Company claim, point out to students that this claim could be restated as, “Nabisco claims that on average
there are at least 1,000 chocolate chips in every 18-ounce bag.”
Students should work in small groups (two or three students per group). Allow about 10 minutes for students to
complete Exercises 6 through 8. Then, discuss answers as a class.

Exercises 6–8: Chocolate Chip Claim

The Nabisco Company claims that there are at least , chocolate chips in every -ounce bag of their Chips Ahoy!
cookies. An article in a local newspaper reported the efforts of a group of students in their attempt to validate the
Nabisco claim. The article reported that the students randomly selected bags of cookies from local grocery stores and
counted the number of chocolate chips in the cookies in each bag. The students found the sample mean was , .
chips, and the sample standard deviation was . chips. The article stated that the students’ data supported the
Nabisco Company claim.

6. Using the students’ results, calculate the margin of error associated with the estimate of the mean number of
chocolate chips in an -ounce bag of Chips Ahoy! chocolate chip cookies. Write a sentence interpreting the margin
MP.2 of error.

The margin of error is . . The population mean number of chocolate chips in an -ounce bag is likely between
, . and , . .

7. Do you agree that the student data supported the Nabisco Company claim? Explain.

MP.3 Students should agree with the claim. The population mean number of chocolate chips is likely in the range
. ± . , or between , . and , . . This range is consistent with the claim of at least ,
chocolate chips in each -ounce bag.

8. Comment on the procedure that the students used to collect their data.

It was important that the bags were randomly selected. Since they were all collected from local grocery stores, it
might not be reasonable to extend the conclusion to beyond the local grocery stores.

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Exercises 9–15 (15 minutes): Understanding a Poll

These exercises are similar to Exercises 1–5, estimating a population proportion. The difference is how the data are
presented. In this example, students first read a graph and discuss key points in the graph. After this discussion,
consider presenting to students how the Gallup organization conducts its polls. Show students the Gallup website
(http://www.gallup.com). However, preview the site before suggesting students examine it, as there are topics involved
in the polls that on occasion may not be desirable to discuss with the class. The site incorporates polls related to current
issues, which are difficult to predict.
Students should work in small groups (two or three students per group). Allow Scaffolding:
approximately five minutes for students to complete Exercises 9–11. When students have
If possible, it might be
finished, discuss the answers as a class. Then, direct students to read how Gallup
useful for English language
conducted the poll, and have them complete Exercises 12–15. When students have
learners to analyze
finished, discuss answers as a class. examples that are in their
L1 (first) language.
Exercises 9–15: Understanding a Poll
Many websites have
George Gallup founded the American Institute of Public Opinion (Gallup Poll) in 1935. The translated versions of
company is famous for its public opinion polls, which are conducted in the United States and reports available.
other countries.

Gallup published a graph in May 2013 titled Percent in U.S. Who Exercise for at Least 30 Minutes Three or More Days per
Week. Use the graph found on the Gallup website (http://www.gallup.com/poll/162194/americans-exercise-habits-
worsen-slightly-2013.aspx) to answer the following questions:

9. What percent of those surveyed said that they exercise at least 30 minutes three or more days a week at the start of
2013?

Approximately %

10. Describe the patterns that you observe in the graph.

The percent of adults who say they exercise at least minutes three or more days a week follows an up-and-down
cycle; at the beginning of the year, the percent is low; by midyear, the percent rises to its highest; by the end of the
year, the percent goes back down.

11. Give some reasons why you think the graph follows the pattern that you described.

The pattern seems to be following the seasons of the year. During the winter, the percent is low; during the
summer, the percent reaches its peak.

Following are the survey methods that Gallup used to collect the data:

Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index survey
June 1–30, 2013, with a random sample of , adults, aged and older, living in all U.S. states and the
District of Columbia.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with % confidence that the maximum
margin of sampling error is ± percentage point.

12. Using the value of . for the proportion of those surveyed who said they exercise at least minutes three or
more days a week in the most recent poll, calculate the margin of error. How does your margin of error compare to
the value reported by Gallup?

The margin of error is . , which rounds up to . .

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13. Interpret the phrase “margin of sampling error is ± percentage point.”

It is very likely that the proportion of all adults who said they exercise at least minutes three or more days a week
is within . of the sample proportion . .

14. Why is it important that Gallup selects a random sample of adults?

It helps to ensure that the sample taken is representative of the population.

15. If Gallup had used a random sample of , , what would happen to the margin of error? Explain your answer.

The margin of error would increase to . .

. ( . )
=

Closing (3 minutes)
Refer back to the first exercise set about the election results. What do you think would be an appropriate
headline for the story?
Race for Governor in a Dead Heat; Gubernatorial Race Too Close to Call
Ask students to summarize the main ideas of the lesson in writing or with a neighbor. Use this as an opportunity to
informally assess comprehension of the lesson. The Lesson Summary below offers some important ideas that should be
included.

Lesson Summary
The estimated margin of error when a sample proportion from a random sample is used to estimate a
( )
population proportion is = , where is the sample proportion.

The estimated margin of error when a sample mean from a random sample is used to estimate a
population mean is = , where is the sample mean.
It is important to interpret margin of error in context.
It is unlikely that the estimate of a population proportion or mean will be farther from the actual
population value than the margin of error.

Exit Ticket (5 minutes)

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Name Date

Lesson 22: Evaluating Reports Based on Data from a Sample

Exit Ticket

The Gallup organization published the following results from a poll that it conducted.
As health experts increasingly focus on the medical benefits of a healthy lifestyle and preventative healthcare,
Americans say their doctor does commonly discuss the benefits of healthy habits with them. Specifically, 71% say
their doctor usually discusses the benefits of engaging in regular physical exercise, and 66% say their doctor usually
discusses the benefits of eating a healthy diet. Fewer Americans, 50%, say their doctor usually discusses the
benefits of not smoking, although that number jumps to 79% among smokers.
Survey Methods
Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 10–14, 2013, with a random sample of
2,027 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.
For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of
sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
Source: http://www.gallup.com/poll/163772/americans-say-doctors-advise-health-habits.aspx
1. The headline of the article is “Smokers Much More Likely Than Nonsmokers to Say Doctor Discusses Not Smoking.”
Do you agree with this headline? Explain your answer.

2. Using the data “71% say their doctor usually discusses the benefits of engaging in regular physical exercise,”
calculate the margin of error. Show your work.

3. How do your results compare with the margin of error stated in the article?

4. Interpret the margin of error in this context.

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

The Gallup organization published the following results from a poll that it conducted.

As health experts increasingly focus on the medical benefits of a healthy lifestyle and preventative healthcare,
Americans say their doctor does commonly discuss the benefits of healthy habits with them. Specifically, %
say their doctor usually discusses the benefits of engaging in regular physical exercise, and % say their doctor
usually discusses the benefits of eating a healthy diet. Fewer Americans, %, say their doctor usually discusses
the benefits of not smoking, although that number jumps to % among smokers.

Survey Methods

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 10–14, 2013, with a random sample
of , adults, aged and older, living in all U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with % confidence that the margin of
sampling error is ± percentage points.

Source: http://www.gallup.com/poll/163772/americans-say-doctors-advise-health-habits.aspx

1. The headline of the article is “Smokers Much More Likely Than Nonsmokers to Say Doctor Discusses Not Smoking.”
Do you agree with this headline? Explain your answer.

Yes, I agree with this headline because % of smokers say their doctor usually discusses the benefits of
nonsmoking, while less than % of nonsmokers say their doctor discusses not smoking. The margin of error
associated with these estimates is only %.

2. Using the data “ % say their doctor usually discusses the benefits of engaging in regular physical exercise,”
calculate the margin of error. Show your work.

( . )( . )
= = .

3. How do your results compare with the margin of error stated in the article?

This value is lower than the stated value of . .

4. Interpret the margin of error in this context.

It is very likely that the proportion of all adults who would say that their doctor usually discusses the benefits of
engaging in physical exercise is within % of the sample proportion . .

Lesson 22: Evaluating Reports Based on Data from a Sample 296

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Problem Set Sample Solutions

1. The British Medical Journal published a study whose objective was to investigate estimation of calorie content of
meals from fast food restaurants. Below are the published results.

Participants: , adults and school-age children visiting restaurants at dinnertime (evening meal) in 2010
and 2011; , adolescents visiting restaurants after school or at lunchtime in 2010 and 2011

Results: Among adults, adolescents, and school-age children, the mean actual calorie content of meals was
calories (SD ), calories (SD ), and calories (SD ), respectively. Compared with the actual
figures, participants underestimated calorie content by means of calories, calories, and calories,
respectively.

Source: http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f2907

a. Calculate the margin of error associated with the estimate of the mean number of actual calories in the meals
eaten by each of the groups: adults, adolescents, and school-age children.

Margin of error for adults: .

Margin of error for adolescents: .

Margin of error for school-age children: .

b. Write a sentence interpreting the margin of error for the adult group.

It is very likely that the sample mean of calories is within . of the actual mean number of calories in
meals eaten by all adults.

c. Explain why the margin of error for the estimate of the mean number of actual calories in meals eaten by
adults is smaller than the margin of error of the mean number of actual calories in meals eaten by school-age
children.

The size of the sample for the school-age children is considerably smaller than the sample size for the adults.

d. Write a conclusion that the researchers could draw from this study.

The mean number of calories in a meal consumed by adults is greater than the mean number of calories in a
meal consumed by adolescents.

2. The Gallup organization published the following results from a poll that it conducted:

By their own admission, many young Americans, aged to , say they spend too much time using the Internet
( %), their cell phones or smartphones ( %), and social media sites such as Facebook ( %). Americans’
perceptions that they spend “too much” time using each of these technologies decline with age. Conversely,
older Americans are most likely to say they spend too much time watching television, and among all Americans,
television is the most overused technology tested.

Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking April 9–10, 2012, with a
random sample of , adults, aged and older, living in all U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with % confidence that the maximum
margin of sampling error is ± percentage points.

Source: http://www.gallup.com/poll/153863/Young-Adults-Admit-Time-Cell-Phones-Web.aspx

a. Write a newspaper headline that would capture the main idea from the poll.

Answers will vary. An example is “U.S. Young Adults Admit Too Much Time on Cell Phones, Web.”

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b. Use the phrase from the article, “their cell phones or smartphones ( %),” to calculate the margin of error.
Show your work.

( . )( . )
= = .

c. How do your results compare with the margin of error stated in the article?

This value is less than the stated value of . .

d. Interpret the statement “the margin of sampling error is ± percentage points.”

It is very likely that the sample proportion . is within . of the proportion of all adults who would say
that they use their cell phones too much.

e. What would happen to the margin of error if Gallup had surveyed people instead of the , ?

The margin of error would increase to . .

3. The Holiday Inn Resort Brand conducted the Kid Classified survey. , parents and children nationwide were
interviewed via an online survey.

The results of the survey state

While many parents surveyed say they have some financial savings set aside specifically for vacation travel, more
than half of parents in the survey ( %) noted that saving enough money was the biggest challenge to planning
a family vacation, more so than coordination of family schedules ( %) or taking time off of work ( %).

Source: http://www.lodgingmagazine.com/holiday-inn-resorts-catering-to-kids/

a. Calculate the margin of error associated with the estimate of the proportion of all parents who would say
that saving enough money is the biggest challenge to planning a family vacation.

The margin of error is . .

b. Write a sentence interpreting the margin of error.

It is very likely that the sample proportion of . is within . of the proportion of all parents who would
say that saving enough money is the biggest challenge to planning a family vacation.

c. Comment on how the survey was conducted.

This was an online survey. It is not known if this was a random sample. Only individuals who have Internet
access could take this survey, which would eliminate anyone who did not have Internet access.

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Mathematics Curriculum
ALGEBRA II 4

Topic D

Experiment
S-IC.B.3, S-IC.B.5, S-IC.B.6

Focus Standards: S-IC.B.3 Recognize the purposes of and differences among sample surveys, experiments, and
observational studies; explain how randomization relates to each.
S-IC.B.5 Use data from a randomized experiment to compare two treatments; use simulations
to decide if differences between parameters are significant.
S-IC.B.6 Evaluate reports based on data.
8
Lesson 23: Experiments and the Role of Random Assignment (P) 1
Lesson 24: Differences Due to Random Assignment Alone (P)
Lessons 25–27: Ruling Out Chance (P,P,P)
Lessons 28–29: Drawing a Conclusion from an Experiment (E,E)
Lesson 30: Evaluating Reports Based on Data from an Experiment (P)

This topic focuses on drawing conclusions based on data from a statistical experiment. Experiments are
introduced as investigations designed to compare the effect of two treatments on a response variable.
Students revisit the distinction between random selection and random assignment.
When comparing two treatments using data from a statistical experiment, it is important to assess whether
the observed difference in group means indicates a real difference between the treatments in the experiment
or whether it is possible that there is no difference and that the observed difference is just a by-product of
the random assignment of subjects to treatments (S-IC.B.5). To help students understand how this distinction
is made, lessons in this topic use simulation to create a randomization distribution as a way of exploring the
types of differences they might expect to see by chance when there is no real difference between groups. By
understanding these differences, students are able to determine whether an observed difference in means is
significant (S-IC.B.5).

1Lesson Structure Key: P-Problem Set Lesson, M-Modeling Cycle Lesson, E-Exploration Lesson, S-Socratic Lesson

: Drawing Conclusions Using Data from an Experiment 299

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Students also critique and evaluate published reports based on statistical experiments that compare two
treatments (S-IC.B.6). For example, students read a short summary of an article in the online New England
Journal of Medicine describing an experiment to determine if wearing a brace helps adolescents with
scoliosis. Then, they watch an online video report for the Wall Street Journal titled “BMW Drivers Really Are
Jerks” that describes a study of the relationship between driving behavior and the type of car driven.

: Drawing Conclusions Using Data from an Experiment 300

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Lesson 23: Experiments and the Role of Random

Assignment

Student Outcomes
Given a description of a statistical experiment, students identify the response variable and the treatments.
Students recognize the different purposes of random selection and of random assignment.
Students recognize the importance of random assignment in statistical experiments.

Lesson Notes
Experiments are introduced as investigations designed to compare the effect of two treatments on a response variable.
This lesson revisits the distinction between random selection and random assignment and also explores the role of
random assignment in carrying out a statistical experiment to compare two treatments.

Classwork
Exercises 1–4 (8 minutes): Experiments
Read the information about the two studies to the class. Give students about two to three minutes to work with a
partner to answer Exercise 1.

Exercises 1–4: Experiments

Two studies are described below. One is an observational study, while the other is an experiment.

Scaffolding:
Study A:
For struggling students, offer a
A new dog food, specially designed for older dogs, has been developed. A veterinarian wants to graphic organizer that could be
test this new food against another dog food currently on the market to see if it improves dogs’
health. Thirty older dogs were randomly assigned to either the “new” food group or the
used to remind them of the
“current” food group. After they were fed either the “new” or “current” food for six months, characteristics of observational
their improvement in health was rated. studies and experiments.
Also, consider using a visual
depiction of the experiments.
Study B:

The administration at a large school wanted to determine if there was a difference in the mean number of text messages
sent by ninth-grade students and by eleventh-grade students during a day. Students in a random sample of ninth-
grade students were asked how many text messages they sent per day. Students in another random sample of
eleventh-grade students were asked how many text messages they sent per day. The difference in the mean number of
texts per day was determined.

Lesson 23: Experiments and the Role of Random Assignment 301

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1. Which study is the experiment? Explain. Discuss the answer with your partner.

Study A is an experiment because treatments are assigned to the dogs, and a response is measured.

Now, let students try to form their own definitions for a subject, response variable, and treatment group by identifying
MP.1
what each one is in the experiment; allow students to work with their partners to answer Exercises 2–4. Convey the
following to students before each exercise, and allow two minutes for students to respond to each question:
We are going to introduce some specific vocabulary used in experiments. In the example above, the dogs are
the subjects. Think about what happened in the experiment, and describe what a subject is in an experiment.

2. In your own words, describe what a subject is in an experiment.

A subject is a participant in the experiment.

The dogs’ health was the response variable. Think about the experiment, and describe what a response
variable is in an experiment.

3. In your own words, describe what a response variable is in an experiment.

A response variable is not controlled by the experimenter and is measured as part of the experiment.

“New” food and “old” food were the treatments. Describe what a treatment is in an experiment.

4. In your own words, describe what a treatment is in an experiment.

A treatment is the condition(s) to which subjects are randomly assigned by the experimenter.

Exercises 5–9 (10–13 minutes): Random Selection and Random Assignment Scaffolding:
Read and discuss the differences between the terms random selection and random The term assignment may
MP.2
assignment. Have students work with a partner to answer Exercises 5 through 8. Verify be familiar to students
that students understand the differences between random selection and random (e.g., homework
assignment. Allow students about five minutes to complete Exercise 9. assignments), but in this
context it may need
explanation.
Exercises 5–9: Random Selection and Random Assignment
In this lesson, assignment
Take another look at the two studies described above. Study A (the dog food study) is an
refers to allocating or
experiment, while study B (text messages) is an observational study. The term random sample
implies that a sample was randomly selected from a population. The terms random selection and assigning a subject to a
random assignment have very different meanings. treatment.
Random selection refers to randomly selecting a sample from a population. Random selection Consider using a Frayer
allows generalization to a population and is used in well-designed observational studies. model diagram for some
Sometimes, but not always, the subjects in an experiment are randomly selected. of the vocabulary in this
Random assignment refers to randomly assigning the subjects in an experiment to treatments. lesson.
Random assignment allows for cause-and-effect conclusions and is used in well-designed
experiments.

Lesson 23: Experiments and the Role of Random Assignment 302

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In study B, the data were collected from two random samples of students.

5. Can the results of the survey be generalized to all ninth-grade and all eleventh-grade students at the school? Why
or why not? Discuss the answer with your partner.

Yes, the results of the survey can be generalized to all ninth- and eleventh-grade students at the school because the
students were randomly selected.

6. Suppose there really is a difference in the mean number of texts sent by ninth-grade students and by eleventh-grade
students. Can we say that the grade level of the students is the cause of the difference in the mean number of texts
sent? Why or why not? Discuss the answer with your partner.

No, we cannot say that the grade level of the students is the cause of the difference in the mean number of texts
sent because observational studies do not allow for cause-and-effect conclusions.

In study A, the dogs were randomly assigned to one of the two types of food.

7. Suppose the dogs that were fed the new food showed improved health. Can we say that the new food is the cause
of the improvement in the dogs’ health? Why or why not? Discuss the answer with your partner.

Yes, we can say that the new food is the cause of improvement in the dogs’ health because the dogs were randomly
assigned to treatments. This allows for cause-and-effect conclusions.

8. Can the results of the dog food study be generalized to all dogs? To all older dogs? Why or why not? Discuss the
answer with your partner.

No, the results cannot be generalized to all dogs or to all older dogs because the dogs were not randomly selected
from the population of all dogs or from the population of older dogs.

The table below summarizes the differences between the terms random selection and random assignment.

9. For each statement, put a check mark in the appropriate column(s,) and explain your choices.

Random Selection Random Assignment

Used in Experiments

Used in Observational Studies

Allows Generalization to the Population

Allows a Cause-and-Effect Conclusion

Exercises 10–17 (22–25 minutes)

Students should work independently on this set of exercises. Read aloud and discuss the experiment. Be sure to address
the concerns that the acres along the river and trees may have a richer nutrient level in the soil and may also get less
sunshine than the acres farther away from the river and farther south of the trees. (An acre is 43,560 ft , or
approximately 209 ft. by 209 ft. An acre is almost the size of a football field.) Allow about two minutes for students to
answer Exercise 10.

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Exercise 10

What is the purpose of random assignment in experiments? To answer this, consider the following investigation:

A researcher wants to determine if the yield of corn is different when the soil is treated with one of two different types of
fertilizers, fertilizer A and fertilizer B. The researcher has acres of land located beside a river that has several trees
along its bank. There are also a few trees to the north of the acres. The land has been divided into one-acre plots.
(See the diagram below.) These plots are to be planted with the same type of corn but can be fertilized differently.
At the end of the growing season, the corn yield will be measured for each plot, and the mean yields for the plots
assigned to each fertilizer will be compared.

1 2 3 4

5 6 7 8

9 10 11 12

13 14 15 16

10. For the experiment, identify the following, and explain each answer:
a. Subjects (Hint: not always people or animals)

The plots of land are the subjects because that is what the experiment is being carried out on.

b. Treatments

Fertilizer A and fertilizer B are the treatments because that is what is different in the experiment.

c. Response variable

The yield of corn is the response variable because that is what is being measured after treatment.

Next, students need to randomly assign each plot to one of the two treatments, fertilizer A or fertilizer B. Below are
instructions for two different methods for the randomization process. Either method is appropriate. Students should
develop a plan for randomly assigning the plots, share the responses, discuss, and then choose their preferred method.
Consider doing both, starting with the paper method. Allow students 8–10 minutes to carry out the randomization
method and answer Exercise 11.

Lesson 23: Experiments and the Role of Random Assignment 304

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Paper Method
1. Give each student 16 precut slips of paper (approximately a 2-inch square).
2. Have students write a number from 1 to 16 on each square.
3. Turn the squares upside down. Mix well.
4. Separate the squares into 2 piles of 8, identifying one pile as A and the other pile as B.
5. Turn the slips of paper over.
6. The numbers in pile A correspond to the plots that receive the fertilizer A treatment.
7. The numbers in pile B correspond to the plots that receive the fertilizer B treatment.
8. Write the letters A and B in the corresponding squares in the diagram. (Exercise 11)

Calculator Method
1. When using the random number generator in a graphing calculator, the random generator function on each
calculator often needs to be seeded with a unique number.* For the TI-83 or TI-84 calculator, have each student
type in a unique number, such as his student ID number. Press the Store, or STO>, key. Go to the Probability, or
PRB, menu. This menu is accessed by pressing the MATH key. Select 1: rand. Press Enter to select. Press Enter to
perform the command.
2. Next, use the command to generate random integers from 1 to 16. For the TI-83 or TI-84 calculator, go to the
Probability, PRB, menu. This menu is accessed by pressing the MATH key. Select 8: randIntNoRep. In the
parentheses, type 1,16. Press Enter to do the command.
3. The first 8 unique numbers generated represent the plots of land that are assigned to fertilizer A.
4. The remaining 8 numbers represent the plots of land that are assigned to fertilizer B.
5. Write the letters A and B in the corresponding squares in the diagram. (Exercise 11)
*The random generator function on a calculator is an algorithm (a program) that produces pseudo random numbers—
numbers that behave like random numbers. This program often has a default value that it uses to generate numbers. If
this default value is not changed, the generator is not seeded; then, each calculator generates the same set of numbers.

Exercise 11

Next, you need to assign the plots to one of the two treatments. To do this, follow the instructions given by your teacher.

11. Write A (for fertilizer A) or B (for fertilizer B) in each of the squares in the diagram so that it corresponds to your
random assignment of fertilizer to plots.

Answers will vary. A sample response is provided.

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After students have completed the table, have them compare their allocations of the two treatments. Be sure to stress
that random assignment produces a large variety of possible outcomes. Next, students investigate their results.
Students are investigating locations with respect to central vertical (blue) and horizontal (red) lines. Students see that
their chosen random distributions gave a good spread of fertilizer A and B above and below the red line and to the right
and left of the blue line. Allow five to eight minutes for students to answer Exercises 12–15.

Exercises 12–15

Let’s investigate the results of the random assignment of the fertilizer types to the plots.

A sample response is provided.

12. On the diagram above, draw a vertical line down the center of the plots of land.

See the chart above.

13. Count the number of plots on the left side of the vertical line that will receive fertilizer A. Count the number of plots
on the right side of the vertical line that will receive fertilizer A.

There are plots on the left and plots on the right. Most students get results that have an approximately equal
split. A few students may get for one side of the line and for the other side. Point out that this is possible with
random assignment but not very likely.

Left _________ Right _________

14. On the diagram above, draw a horizontal line through the center of the plots of land.

See the chart above.

15. Count the number of plots above the horizontal line that will receive fertilizer A. Count the number of plots below
the horizontal line that will receive fertilizer A.

There are plots above the line and plots below the line. Most students get results that have an approximately
equal split. A few students may get for one side of the line and for the other side. Point out that this is possible
with random assignment but not very likely.

Above _________ Below _________

When students have completed Exercises 12–15, ask them to raise their hands if their randomization method produced
an approximately even split left of the vertical line versus right of the vertical line. Comment on the fact that most
students raised their hands.
Next, ask students to raise their hands if their randomization methods produced an approximately even split above the
horizontal line versus below the horizontal line. Comment on the fact that most students raised their hands.

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Then, hold a class discussion about the proximity of the river and of the northern trees. Stress the following ideas:
About half of the plots of land close to the river received fertilizer A, while the other half received fertilizer B.
About half of the plots of land close to the northern trees received fertilizer A, while the other half received
fertilizer B.
Allow students five to eight minutes to answer Exercises 16 and 17.

Exercises 16–17

In experiments, random assignment is used as a way of ensuring that the groups that receive each treatment are as much
alike as possible with respect to other factors that might affect the response.
16. Explain what this means in the context of this experiment.

This means that approximately half of the plots that are close to the river were assigned fertilizer A, and the
remaining half were assigned fertilizer B. Also, approximately half of the plots that are close to the northern trees
were assigned fertilizer A, and the remaining half were assigned fertilizer B.

17. Suppose that, at the end of the experiment, the mean yield for one of the fertilizers is quite a bit higher than the
mean yield for the other fertilizer. Explain why it would be reasonable to say that the type of fertilizer is the cause
of the difference in yield and not the proximity to the river or to the northern trees.
MP.3 Because about half the plots of land close to the river receive fertilizer A and the other half receive fertilizer B, we
can see how the fertilizer works regardless of its proximity to the river. Also, because about half of the plots of land
close to the northern trees receive fertilizer A and the other half receive fertilizer B, we can see how the fertilizer
works regardless of its proximity to the northern trees.

Closing (2 minutes)
Ask students to summarize the main ideas of the lesson in writing or with a neighbor. Use this as an opportunity to
informally assess comprehension of the lesson. The Lesson Summary below offers some important ideas that should be
included.

Lesson Summary
An experiment is an investigation designed to compare the effect of two or more treatments on a
response variable.
A subject is a participant in the experiment.
The response variable is a variable that is not controlled by the experimenter and that is measured as
part of the experiment.
The treatments are the conditions to which subjects are randomly assigned by the experimenter.
Random selection refers to randomly selecting a sample from a population.
Random selection allows for generalization to a population.
Random assignment refers to randomly assigning subjects to treatment groups.
Random assignment allows for cause-and-effect conclusions.
The purpose of random assignment in an experiment is to create similar groups of subjects
for each of the treatments in the experiment.

Exit Ticket (2 minutes)

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Name Date

Lesson 23: Experiments and the Role of Random Assignment

Exit Ticket

Runners who suffered from shin splints were randomly assigned to one of two stretching routines. One of the routines
involved a series of pre-run and post-run dynamic stretches that last approximately 5 minutes before and after the run.
The other routine involved a 1-minute hamstring stretch pre-run and no stretching post-run. After a 45-minute run,
each runner will be assessed for shin splints.
a. Explain why this is an experiment.

b. Identify the subjects.

c. Identify the treatments.

d. Identify the response variable.

e. Why are the runners randomly assigned to one of two stretching routines?

Lesson 23: Experiments and the Role of Random Assignment 308

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

Runners who suffered from shin splints were randomly assigned to one of two stretching routines. One of the routines
involved a series of pre-run and post-run dynamic stretches that last approximately minutes before and after the run.
The other routine involved a -minute hamstring stretch pre-run and no stretching post-run. After a -minute run, each
runner will be assessed for shin splints.

a. Explain why this is an experiment.

It is an investigation that is designed to compare the effect of two treatments to a response variable.

b. Identify the subjects.

The subjects are runners.

c. Identify the treatments.

The treatments are dynamic pre-run and post-run stretching routine and the -minute hamstring stretch.

d. Identify the response variable.

The response variable is the incidence of shin splints.

e. Why are the runners randomly assigned to one of two stretching routines?

The experimenter wants to create similar groups of runners for each of the treatments (stretching routines) in
the experiment, which would allow for a cause-and-effect conclusion.

Problem Set Sample Solutions

For Problems 1 through 5, identify (i) the subjects, (ii) the treatments, and (iii) the response variable for each experiment.

1. A botanist was interested in determining the effects of watering (three days a week or daily) on the heat rating of
jalapeño peppers. The botanist wanted to know which watering schedule would produce the highest heat rating in
the peppers. He conducted an experiment, randomly assigning each watering schedule to half of plots that had
similar soil and full sun. The average final heat rating for the peppers grown in each plot was recorded at the end of
the growing season.

i. Plots of peppers

ii. Watering three days a week and watering daily

iii. Heat rating

2. A manufacturer advertises that its new plastic cake pan bakes cakes more evenly. A consumer group wants to carry
out an experiment to see if the plastic cake pans do bake more evenly than standard metal cake pans. Twenty cake
mixes (same brand and type) are randomly assigned to either the plastic pan or the metal pan. All of the cakes are
baked in the same oven. The rating scale was then used to rate the evenness of each cake.

i. Cake mixes

ii. Plastic pan and metal pan

iii. Evenness rating

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3. The city council of a large city is considering a new law that prohibits talking on a cell phone while driving.
A consumer rights organization wants to know if talking on a cell phone while driving distracts a person’s attention,
causing that person to make errors while driving. An experiment is designed that uses a driving simulator to
compare the two treatments: driving while talking on a cell phone and driving while not talking on a cell phone.
The number of errors made while driving on an obstacle course will be recorded for each driver. Each person in a
random sample of licensed drivers in the city was asked to participate in the experiment. All of the drivers
agreed to participate in the experiment. Half of the drivers were randomly assigned to drive an obstacle course
while talking on a phone. The remaining half were assigned to drive the obstacle course while not talking on a
phone.

i. The randomly selected drivers who took part in the experiment

ii. Driving while talking on a cell phone and driving while not talking on a cell phone

iii. Number of errors made while driving on an obstacle course

4. Researchers studied infants whose brains were temporarily deprived of oxygen as a result of complications at
birth (The New England Journal of Medicine, October 13, 2005). An experiment was performed to determine if
reducing body temperature for three days after birth improved their chances of surviving without brain damage.
Infants were randomly assigned to usual care or whole-body cooling. The amount of brain damage was measured
for each infant.

i. Infants born with a temporary deprivation of oxygen at birth

ii. Usual care or whole-body cooling

iii. Amount of brain damage

5. The head of the quality control department at a printing company would like to carry out an experiment to
determine which of three different glues results in the greatest binding strength. Copies of a book were randomly
assigned to one of the three different glues.

i. Copies of a book

ii. Three different glues

iii. Binding strength

6. In Problem 3, suppose that drivers who talked on the phone while driving committed more errors on the obstacle
course than drivers who did not talk on the phone while driving. Can we say that talking on the cell phone while
driving is the cause of the increased errors on the obstacle course? Why or why not?

Yes, we can say that talking on the cell phone while driving is the cause of the increased errors on the obstacle
course because the drivers were randomly assigned to one of two treatments.

7. Can the results of the experiment in Problem 3 be generalized to all licensed drivers in the city? Why or why not?

Yes, the results can be generalized to all licensed drivers in the city because the drivers were randomly selected from
licensed drivers in the city.

8. In Problem 4, one of the treatment groups was to use usual care for the infants. Why was this treatment group
included in the experiment?

The usual care treatment group is used as a comparison for how well the cooling treatment worked.

9. In Problem 5, why were copies of only one book used in the experiment?

This prevents other factors, such as number of pages, from interfering with the results of the experiment.

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Lesson 24: Differences Due to Random Assignment Alone

Student Outcomes
Students understand that when one group is randomly divided into two groups, the two groups’ means differ
just by chance (a consequence of the random division).
Students understand that when one group is randomly divided into two groups, the distribution of the
difference in the two groups’ means can be described in terms of shape, center, and spread.

Lesson Notes
This lesson investigates differences in group means when a single group is randomly divided into two groups. The goal of
this lesson is for students to understand that when a single group is randomly divided into two groups, the two group
means tend to differ just by chance. Students are given 20 values, which they randomly divide into two groups. The
mean is then calculated for each group. The process is repeated two more times, and all group means are used to create
a class dot plot, which confirms that the distribution of the random groups’ means are centered at the single set’s mean.
This idea is fundamental to the lessons that follow, which involve distinguishing meaningful differences in means from
differences that might be due only to chance.

Classwork
This lesson is designed for students to work individually. However, students can discuss some answers with their
neighbors before a class discussion of the answers. Prior to class, make a copy of Appendix A for each student. Scissors
may also be needed to cut the table into pieces.

Exercises 1–17 (40–45 minutes)

Read the scenario regarding the fastest speeds driven by twenty adult drivers. Consider talking about the data before
beginning the lesson.
Optional questions:
One driver answered that the fastest speed he had driven was 40 mph. How is this possible?
This person may be learning how to drive and is still unsure of his driving abilities.
Another driver answered that the fastest speed she had driven was 110 mph. How is this possible?
This person may have driven on a racetrack.
What would it mean if a driver’s response was 0?
This person may have never driven a car.
Allow about five minutes for students to answer Exercises 1 and 2.

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Exercises 1–17

Twenty adult drivers were asked the following question:

“What speed is the fastest that you have driven?”

Scaffolding:
The table below summarizes the fastest speeds driven in miles per hour (mph).
Include a visual of a car,
and discuss the meaning
of the question.
Review the concepts of
1. What is the mean fastest speed driven?
mean and range, model
the process for
. determining these in the
example, and discuss their
2. What is the range of fastest speed driven? meaning in context.

Next, students investigate what happens to the mean fastest speed driven when the original 20 values are randomly
divided into two groups. Give each student a copy of Appendix A, and let them independently answer Exercise 3.

Scaffolding:
3. Imagine that the fastest speeds were randomly divided into two groups. How would the
means and ranges compare to one another? To the means and ranges of the whole group? Advanced students may be
Explain your thinking. encouraged to develop their
Answers will vary. Sample response: I think the mean of each group will be fairly close own plans for investigating the
MP.3 because most of the values appear to be between and . I do not think the ranges of answer to the question of how
each group will be the same. Depending on the values in the group, one possible range the means of randomly
could be as large as (from to ) or as small as (from to ). selected groups are related to
I think the means of the two groups should be close to the mean of the whole group, again
one another. Consider
because most values appear to be between and . The range of the whole group is
, so the range of the two groups may be smaller than that.
allowing them time to write,
carry out, and evaluate plans
for exploring this question.
Allow about five minutes for students to answer Exercises 4 and 5. Discuss students’
answers to Exercise 5.
Instructions for randomly dividing the 20 fastest speeds driven into two groups:
1. Cut (or tear) along the lines in the table so that 20 equal slips of paper are obtained.
2. Turn the squares upside down. Mix well.
3. Separate the squares into 2 piles of 10, identifying one pile as Group 1 and the other pile as Group 2.
4. Turn the slips of paper over.
5. Record the numbers for Group 1 and Group 2 in the table (Exercise 4).

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Let’s investigate what happens when the fastest speeds driven are randomly divided into two equal-sized groups.

4. Following the instructions from your teacher, randomly divide the values in the table above into two groups of
values each.

Sample student responses; answers will vary. One example follows.

Mean
Group 1
Group 2

5. Do you expect the means of these two groups to be equal? Why or why not?

The values of the means of the two groups will probably not be exactly equal, but I don’t expect them to be very
different.

Allow students about five minutes to answer Exercises 6–8. Then, discuss answers as a class.
Answers will vary. Sample responses are based on the sample answer provided for Exercise 4.

6. Compute the means of these two groups. Write the means in the chart above.

Group 1 mean: .

Group 2 mean:

7. How do these two means compare to each other?

The values of these two means are not very different from each other.

8. How do these two means compare to the mean fastest speed driven for the entire group (Exercise 1)?

The values of these two means are close to the original mean. The value of one mean is larger than the original
mean, and the value of the other mean is smaller than the original mean. (Note: The two group mean values are
equidistant from the original mean value.)

Allow about 15 minutes for students to answer Exercises 9 and 10. For the class dot plot in Exercise 10, create a number
line on a white board or paper. The horizontal scale should range from 61 mph to 78 mph, using tick marks of 0.5. The
horizontal label should be “Mean Fastest Speed Driven.” Provide two or three markers so that multiple students can
place their means on the graph at the same time.

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Sample student responses are provided below; answers will vary.

9. Use the instructions provided for Exercise 4 to repeat the random division process two more times. Compute the
mean of each group for each of the random divisions into two groups. Record your results in the table below.

Mean
Group 3
Group 4 .
Group 5 .
Group 6

10. Plot the means of all six groups on a class dot plot.

When the class dot plot is finished, allow students about three minutes to answer Exercise 11. Discuss the answer as a
class.

11. Based on the class dot plot, what can you say about the possible values of the group means?

Answers will vary.

The group sample means are centered at the original mean of . .

There is variability in the group means. Some groups’ means vary more from the original mean of . than
others.

The group means that are closer to the original mean of . occur more often than the group means that
are farther away from . .

Allow about five minutes for students to answer Exercises 12–14. Then, discuss answers as a class.

12. What is the smallest possible value for a group mean? Largest possible value?
+ + + + + + + + +
Smallest possible mean (the 10 smallest values) = =

+ + + + + + + + +
Largest possible mean (the 10 largest values) = = .

The smallest possible mean is , and the largest possible mean is . .

13. What is the largest possible range for the distribution of group means?

. = .
From Exercise 12, the largest possible range is . .

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14. How does the largest possible range in the group means compare to the range of the original data set (Exercise 2)?
Why is this so?

The range of the original data is . The largest possible range for the distribution of group means is
. , which is much smaller. This difference is due to the use of means. The means of the two groups
of do not vary as much as the individual observations in the data set.

Allow students about three minutes to answer Exercises 15–16. Discuss these answers as a class. Anticipate that
students might need help with Exercise 16.

15. What is the shape of the distribution of group means?

It is symmetrical.

16. Will your answer to the above question always be true? Explain.

Yes. When a single set of values is divided into two equal groups, the two group means will be equidistant from the
single set’s mean. Thus, it will always produce a symmetrical distribution.

Allow students about three minutes to answer Exercise 17 independently or with a partner. Discuss this answer.

17. When a single set of values is randomly divided into two equal groups, explain how the means of these two groups
may be very different from each other and may be very different from the mean of the single set of values.
MP.2 It is possible that the random division could result in most of the smaller values being in one group and most of the
larger values in the other group. This would produce group means that were very different from each other and
from the single set’s mean. But with a random division, this is not very likely to occur.

Closing (2 minutes)
MP.3 Compare your conjecture about the randomized groups (Exercise 3) with what you have learned.
Ask students to summarize the main ideas of the lesson in writing or with a neighbor. Use this as an opportunity to
informally assess comprehension of the lesson. The Lesson Summary below offers some important ideas that should be
included.

Lesson Summary
When a single set of values is randomly divided into two groups:

The two group means will tend to differ just by chance.

The distribution of random groups’ means will be centered at the single set’s mean.

The range of the distribution of the random groups’ means will be smaller than the range of the data
set.

The shape of the distribution of the random groups’ means will be symmetrical.

Exit Ticket (3 minutes)

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Name Date

Lesson 24: Differences Due to Random Assignment Alone

Exit Ticket

When a single group is randomly divided into two groups, why do the two group means tend to be different?

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

When a single group is randomly divided into two groups, why do the two group means tend to be different?

The two group means tend to be different because of random chance involved in the process of dividing the original group
into two subgroups.

Problem Set Sample Solutions

In one high school, there are eight math classes during second period. The number of students in each second-period
math class is recorded below.

This data set is randomly divided into two equal-sized groups, and the group means are computed.

1. Will the two group means be the same? Why or why not?

No. The two group means tend to not be the same just due to chance.

The random division into two groups process is repeated many times to create a distribution of group mean class size.

2. What is the center of the distribution of group mean class size?

The distribution of the group mean class size is centered at the mean of the original set of class sizes.
+ + + + + + +
= .

The center of the distribution of group mean class size is . .

3. What is the largest possible range of the distribution of group mean class size?

The range of the distribution of mean class sizes would be the difference of the largest possible group mean and the
smallest possible group mean.

Largest possible group mean: = .

Smallest possible group mean: = .

Largest possible group mean range: . . = . ; the range is . students.

4. What possible values for the mean class size are more likely to happen than others? Explain why you chose these
values.

Below is a sample partial distribution of the group mean class sizes.

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There are different sets of numbers: Set A, Set B, and Set C. Each set contains numbers. In two of the sets, the
numbers were randomly divided into two groups of numbers each, and the mean for each group was calculated. These
two means are plotted on a dot plot. This procedure was repeated many times, and the dot plots of the group means are
shown below.

The third set did not use the above procedure to compute the means.

For each set, the smallest possible group mean and the largest possible group mean were calculated, and these two
means are shown in the dot plots below.

Use the dot plots below to answer Problems 5–8.

5. Which set is not one of the two sets that were randomly divided into two groups of numbers? Explain.

Set B is not one of the two sets that were randomly divided into two subsets. When a set of numbers is divided into
two equal groups, the resulting dot plot of group means will be symmetrical.

6. Estimate the mean of the original values in Set A. Show your work.
.
Estimated mean of Set A: = .

7. Estimate the range of the group means shown in the dot plot for Set C. Show your work.

. . =
The estimated range of the distribution of sample means for Set C is .

8. Is the range of the original values in Set C smaller or larger than your answer in Problem 7? Explain.

The range of Set C is larger than the range of the distribution of sample means from Set C. The range of the group
means will always be smaller than the range of the original set of values.

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Appendix A

65 40 55 90
70 75 80 75
55 70 50 60
65 65 95 70
110 65 60 70

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Lesson 25: Ruling Out Chance

Student Outcomes
Given data from a statistical experiment with two treatments, students create a randomization distribution.
Students use a randomization distribution to determine if there is a significant difference between two
treatments.

Lesson Notes
In Lessons 25–27, students are introduced to randomization testing. By the end of the three lessons, they will have
experienced and executed all steps of this procedure, and they will have engaged in a “start to finish” example with
MP.4
provided data. Once that is accomplished, students participate in a capstone experience in Lessons 28 and 29 where
they collect their own data, execute their own randomization tests, and present their findings in a poster.
Note that randomization testing is somewhat different from more traditional methods for comparing the means of two
groups such as the two-sample -test and other procedures found in many college-level statistics courses or AP statistics.
While a randomization test still requires developing competing hypotheses (null and alternative) and coming to a
conclusion based on the probability of obtaining results as extreme as those one obtains in one’s sample or experiment,
the randomization testing method develops the probability distribution of the statistic of interest via simulation and
using the data at hand. As a result, the randomization testing method does not carry with it the usual concerns
regarding the characteristics of a population distribution and other assumptions required of traditional methods. The
technique is thus also referred to as a nonparametric technique.
This lesson starts by reminding students of previous lessons’ work regarding randomization distributions. Specifically,
students review that when a single group of observations with any variability is randomly divided into two groups, the
means of these two groups tend to differ just by chance. In some cases, the difference in the means of these two groups
may be very small (or 0), but in other cases, this difference may be quite large. As the difference in the two groups’
means is the statistic of interest, students consider that difference value in context with an experiment regarding the use
of a nutrient supplement to encourage tomato growth.
In subsequent lessons, students estimate a probability distribution for the possible values of this “difference value,” and
students assess whether or not the actual difference in means obtained from the experiment (in this case, the difference
observed between the treatment group’s mean weight and the control group’s mean weight) is consistent with usual
chance behavior. When the observed difference is not typical of chance behavior, it may indicate a significant
difference. Specifically, it may indicate that the nutrient treatment was effective.
Throughout these lessons, experimental design principles are presented, and some questions prompt students to
consider the reasoning behind the principles.
Lesson 27 may require slightly more time than Lessons 25 and 26.

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Classwork
Explain that the next three lessons explore some examples of the method called randomization testing. Then, after
completing these three lessons, students conduct an experiment and use this randomization testing method to assess if
the result observed in the experiment is statistically significant.

Opening Exercise (3 minutes)

Let students answer part (a) in writing and share their responses with a neighbor. Pose the question in part (b) to the
class, and allow multiple responses.

Opening Exercise

a. Explain in writing what you learned about randomly divided groups from the last lesson. Share your thoughts
with a neighbor.

In the previous lesson, I saw that when a single group of observations with any variability is randomly divided
into two groups, the means of these two groups will tend to differ just by chance. In some cases, the
difference in the means of these two groups may be very small (or ), but in other cases, this difference may
be quite large.

b. How could simulation be used to understand the typical differences between randomized groups?

Through simulation, you can learn about the values of the difference that would be expected just by chance.
You can then use this information to decide if a given set of data from an experiment supports a claim of a
statistically significant difference between two treatment means.

Explain that this is done by assessing whether or not the actual difference in means obtained from the experiment (such
as the difference observed between a control group mean and a treatment group mean or between two treatment
groups’ means) is consistent with usual chance behavior. When the observed difference is not typical of chance
behavior, it may indicate a significant difference in treatment means.
Scaffolding:
Consider using a visual or
Exercises 1–3 (10 minutes): Random Assignments and Computing the physical model to explain
the experiment clearly.
Difference of the Group Means
Consider asking students
Read through the example. Let students work independently on the exercises and confirm to restate, write, or draw a
answers as a class. picture of the experiment.
For advanced learners,
Exercises 1–3: Random Assignments and Computing the Difference of the Group Means consider posing the
Imagine that tomatoes of varying shapes and sizes have been placed in front of you. These question: Suppose the
tomatoes (all of the same variety) have been part of a nutrient experiment where the application nutrient group weighed,
of the nutrient is expected to yield larger tomatoes that weigh more. All tomatoes have been on average, 0.25 pounds
grown under similar conditions regarding soil, water, and sunlight, but of the tomatoes received more than the non-
the additional nutrient supplement. Using the weight data of these tomatoes, you wish to
nutrient group. Would
examine the claim that the nutrient yields larger tomatoes on average.
that be sufficient evidence
that the nutrients caused a
difference in weight?
Explain why or why not.

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1. Why would it be important in this experiment for the tomatoes to all be of the same variety and grown under
the same conditions (except for the treatment applied to of the tomatoes)?

Our variable is the weight of the tomatoes, and our objective is to see if the nutrient treatment yields heavier
tomatoes. We do not want any other factors in our experiment that might cause some tomatoes to grow better
than others; their presence might distort our findings. So, we prefer that the tomatoes all have similar growing
conditions such as the same soil, the same amount of water, and the same amount of sunlight.

Note: When data collected from an experiment is examined, it is assumed that the experiment was conducted in a
reasonable way with respect to important experimental design principles such as proper control measures. In most
cases, if these principles are not incorporated, inaccurate conclusions may be reached.

Here are the tomatoes with their weights shown. They have been ordered from largest to smallest based on weight.

9.1 8.4 8.0 7.7 7.3 6.4 5.9 5.2 4.4 3.8

#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10

For now, do not be concerned about which tomatoes received the additional nutrients. The object here is to randomly
assign the tomatoes to two groups.

Imagine that someone assisting you uses a random number generator or some other impartial selection device and
randomly selects tomatoes 1, 4, 5, 7, and 10 to be in Group A. By default, tomatoes 2, 3, 6, 8, and 9 will be in Group B.
The result is illustrated below.

Group A Group B

9.1 8.4

7.7 8.0

7.3 6.4

5.9 5.2

3.8 4.4

2. Confirm that the mean for Group A is . ounces, and calculate the mean for Group B.

The mean for Group B is . ounces.

3. Calculate the difference between the mean of Group A and the mean of Group B (that is, calculate ).

= . . = .
The difference between the means of Group A and Group B is . ounces.

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Exercises 4–6 (5–7 minutes): Interpreting the Value of a Difference

In these exercises, students interpret the difference between the group means. Let students work independently on the
exercises and confirm answers as a class.

Exercises 4–6: Interpreting the Value of a Difference

The statistic of interest that you care about is the difference between the mean of the tomatoes in Group A and the
mean of the tomatoes in Group B. For now, call that difference Diff. Diff =

4. Explain what a Diff value of . ounces would mean in terms of which group has the larger mean weight and the
number of ounces by which that group’s mean weight exceeds the other group’s mean weight.

Group A has a mean weight that is . ounces higher than Group B’s mean weight.

5. Explain what a Diff value of . ounces would mean in terms of which group has the larger mean weight and the
number of ounces by which that group’s mean weight exceeds the other group’s mean weight.

Group A has a mean weight that is . ounce lower than Group B’s mean weight.

6. Explain what a Diff value of ounces would mean regarding the difference between the mean weight of the
tomatoes in Group A and the mean weight of the tomatoes in Group B.

Group A’s mean weight is the same as Group B’s mean weight.

Exercises 7–8 (10 minutes): Additional Random Assignments

Let students work independently on the exercises and confirm answers as a class.

Exercises 7–8: Additional Random Assignments

7. Below is a second random assignment of the tomatoes to two groups. Calculate the mean of each group, and
then calculate the Diff value for this second case. Also, interpret the Diff value in context using your responses to
the previous questions as a guide.

Group A Group B

9.1 7.7

8.4 5.9

8.0 5.2

7.3 4.4

6.4 3.8

Group A has a mean weight of . ounces, and that is . ounces higher than Group B’s mean weight
( . ounces).

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8. Here is a third random assignment of the tomatoes. Calculate the mean of each group, and then calculate the
value of Diff for this case. Interpret the Diff value in context using your responses to the previous questions as a
guide.

Group A Group B

9.1 8.4

7.7 8.0

7.3 6.4

5.2 5.9

3.8 4.4

There is no difference between Group A’s mean weight and Group B’s mean weight; each mean is . ounces.

Closing (10 minutes)

Using the 10 tomatoes, what arrangement of tomatoes would yield the largest value of Diff? How would you
explain your reasoning without performing calculations to verify your answer? How big is the largest value of
Diff?
MP.3 The largest Diff value would occur when Group A had the 5 largest tomatoes. That would create a
situation where the mean of Group A has the largest possible mean for any grouping of the 5 tomatoes,
and, consequently, Group B would have the smallest possible mean for any grouping of the 5 tomatoes.
Diff = 8.10 5.14 = 2.96
Using your logic above, what arrangement of tomatoes would yield the most negative value of Diff? How
would you explain your reasoning without performing calculations to verify your answer? What is this Diff
value?
The most negative Diff value would occur in the exact opposite case from above—that is when Group A
had the 5 smallest tomatoes. That would create a situation where the mean of Group A has the
smallest possible mean for any grouping of the 5 tomatoes, and, consequently, Group B would have the
largest possible mean for any grouping of the 5 tomatoes. Diff = 5.14 8.10 = 2.96
What would it mean for the mean of all Diff values to be close to zero?
A mean close to zero would indicate that the tomatoes in each group were mixed, or neither group had
only the largest or smallest values. The resulting differences were both above and below the mean of
the differences. Use Exercise 8 as a way to highlight the answer to this question.

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Ask students to summarize the main ideas of the lesson in writing or with a neighbor. Use this as an opportunity to
informally assess comprehension of the lesson. The Lesson Summary below offers some important ideas that should be
included.

Lesson Summary
In this lesson, when the single group of observations was randomly divided into two groups, the means of these two
groups differed by chance. These differences have a context based on the purpose of the experiment and the units
of the original observations.

The differences varied. In some cases, the difference in the means of these two groups was very small (or ), but in
other cases, this difference was larger. However, in order to determine which differences were typical and ordinary
versus unusual and rare, a sense of the center, spread, and shape of the distribution of possible differences is
needed. In the following lessons, you will develop this distribution by executing repeated random assignments
similar to the ones you saw in this lesson.

Exit Ticket (7 minutes)

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Name Date

Lesson 25: Ruling Out Chance

Exit Ticket

Six ping-pong balls are labeled as follows: 0, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18. Three ping-pong balls will be randomly assigned to Group A;
the rest will be assigned to Group B. Diff =
1. Calculate Diff, the difference between the mean of the numbers, on the balls assigned to Group A and the mean of
the numbers on the balls assigned to Group B (i.e., ) when the 3 ping-pong balls selected for Group A are 3,
6, and 12.

2. Calculate Diff, the difference between the mean of the numbers, on the balls assigned to Group A and the mean of
the numbers on the balls assigned to Group B (i.e., ) when the 3 ping-pong balls selected for Group A are 3,
12, and 18.

3. What is the greatest possible value of Diff, and what selection of ping-pong balls for Group A corresponds to that
value?

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4. What is the smallest (most negative) possible value of Diff, and what selection of ping-pong balls for Group A
corresponds to that value?

5. If these 6 observations represent the burn times of 6 candles (in minutes), explain what a Diff value of 6 means in
terms of (a) which group (A or B) has the longer average burn time and (b) the amount of time by which that group’s
mean exceeds the other group’s mean.

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

Six ping-pong balls are labeled as follows: , , , , , . Three ping-pong balls will be randomly assigned to Group A;
the rest will be assigned to Group B. Diff =

1. Calculate Diff, the difference between the mean of the numbers, on the balls assigned to Group A and the mean of
the numbers on the balls assigned to Group B (i.e., ) when the ping-pong balls selected for Group A are ,
, and .

2. Calculate Diff, the difference between the mean of the numbers, on the balls assigned to Group A and the mean of
the numbers on the balls assigned to Group B (i.e., ) when the ping-pong balls selected for Group A are ,
, and .

3. What is the greatest possible value of Diff, and what selection of ping-pong balls for Group A corresponds to that
value?

If , , and (the three highest numbers) are selected for Group A, Diff = = .

4. What is the smallest (most negative) possible value of Diff and what selection of ping-pong balls for Group A
corresponds to that value?

If , , and (the three lowest numbers) are selected for Group A, Diff = = .

5. If these observations represent the burn times of candles (in minutes), explain what a Diff value of means in
terms of (a) which group (A or B) has the longer average burn time and (b) the amount of time by which that group’s
mean exceeds the other group’s mean.

Group A has a mean burn time that is minutes higher (longer) than Group B’s mean burn time.

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Problem Set Sample Solutions

Six ping-pong balls are labeled as follows: , , , , , . Three ping-pong balls will be randomly assigned to Group A;
the rest will be assigned to Group B. Diff =

In the Exit Ticket problem, of the possible randomizations have been addressed.

1. Develop the remaining possible random assignments to two groups, and calculate the Diff value for each.

(Note: Avoid redundant cases; selecting , , and for Group A is not a distinct random assignment from selecting
, , and , so do not record both.)

Note: Reference notes on the far right of the table below refer to the corresponding question in the Exit Ticket.

Group A Selection Diff

Question #1
Question #2
Question #3
Question #4

2. Create a dot plot that shows the Diff values obtained from the possible randomizations. By visual inspection,
what is the mean and median value of the distribution?

The mean and median appear to be due to the center and symmetry.

Diff

3. Based on your dot plot, what is the probability of obtaining a Diff value of or higher?

Two of the values are or higher.

= . = %

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4. Would a Diff value of or higher be considered a difference that is likely to happen or one that is unlikely to
happen? Explain.

A Diff value of or higher would be considered unlikely to happen since a difference this large would happen only
% of the time.

5. Based on your dot plot, what is the probability of obtaining a Diff value of or smaller?

Nine of the values are or smaller.

= . = %

6. Would a Diff value of or smaller be considered a difference that is likely to happen or one that is unlikely to
happen? Explain.

A Diff value of or smaller would be considered likely to happen since a difference this small would happen %
of the time.

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Lesson 26: Ruling Out Chance

Student Outcomes
Given data from a statistical experiment with two treatments, students create a randomization distribution.
Students use a randomization distribution to determine if there is a significant difference between two
treatments.

Lesson Notes
In the previous lesson, students investigated examples of the random assignment of 10 tomatoes to two groups of
5 each. In each case, they calculated Diff = , the difference between the mean weight of the 5 tomatoes in
Group A and the mean weight of the 5 tomatoes in Group B. The Diff values varied.
This lesson asks students to consider if certain Diff values may be unusual or extreme. To do this, students need to
develop a sense of the center, spread, and shape of the distribution of possible Diff values. Developing a distribution of
all possible values based on this random assignment approach would be very difficult, particularly if there were a greater
number of tomatoes involved. Thus, repeated simulation is employed to develop something called a randomization
distribution to adequately approximate the true probability distribution of Diff. The randomization distributions are
predeveloped when presented in this lesson; in the next lesson, students create their own randomization distributions.

Scaffolding:
Classwork
Use the following as a concrete
Opening Exercise (3 minutes) example that illustrates the
point made in this opening:
Recall the scenario that students worked through in the previous lesson. Let students
answer the questions independently and share their responses with a neighbor. Then, If the treatment was not
discuss the following as a class: effective, which of the
Even a distribution that is centered at 0 could have some variability. This means following mean weights would
it is important to examine the entire distribution of the Diff statistic to establish you expect?
just how unusual or extreme a specific Diff value is. To do this, you need a sense
of the center, spread, and shape of the distribution in order to determine if a A B
4.2 4.0
specific value is unusual or extreme.
2.9 2.3
Developing a distribution of all possible differences based on this random 3.0 3.4
assignment approach could be very difficult—particularly if there were a greater 2.0 1.2
number of tomatoes involved. Fortunately, you can use simulation to develop 5.0 4.0
something called a randomization distribution to adequately approximate the
true probability distribution of Diff. This highlights the difficulty in
quantifying what is a
meaningful difference in means
and illustrates the point of the
lesson.

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Opening Exercise

Previously, you considered the random assignment of tomatoes into two distinct groups of tomatoes, Group A and
Group B. With each random assignment, you calculated Diff = , the difference between the mean weight of the
tomatoes in Group A and the mean weight of the tomatoes in Group B.

a. Summarize in writing what you learned in the last lesson. Share your thoughts with a neighbor.

In the last lesson, when the single group of observations was randomly divided into two groups, the means of
these two groups differed by chance. In some cases, the difference in the means of these two groups was very
small (or ), but in other cases, this difference was larger. However, in order to determine which differences
were typical and ordinary versus unusual and rare, a sense of the center, spread, and shape of the distribution
of possible differences is needed.

b. Recall that of these tomatoes are from plants that received a nutrient treatment in the hope of growing
bigger tomatoes. But what if the treatment was not effective? What difference would you expect to find
between the group means?

I would expect there to be no difference between the mean of Group A and the mean of Group B when
performing these randomization assignments; in other words, I would expect a value of Diff equal to 0.

Exercises 1–2 (7 minutes): The Distribution of Diff and Why Is Important

Read through the beginning of the exercise, and verify that students understand the information displayed in the dot
plot. Let students work with a partner on Exercises 1 and 2. Then, confirm answers as a class.

Exercises 1–2: The Distribution of Diff and Why Is Important

In the previous lesson, instances of the tomato randomization were considered. Imagine that the random assignment
was conducted an additional times, and Diff values were computed from these random assignments. The
results are shown graphically below in a dot plot where each dot represents the Diff value that results from a random
assignment:

Diff

This dot plot will serve as your randomization distribution for the Diff statistic in this tomato randomization example.
The dots are placed at increments of . ounces.

1. Given the distribution picture above, what is the approximate value of the median and mean of the distribution?
Specifically, do you think this distribution is centered near a value that implies “No Difference” between Group A
and Group B?

The Diff value that implies "No Difference" between Group A and Group B would be . From visual inspection, the
approximate value of the median and mean of the distribution appears to be near , based on the near symmetry
and the center of the distribution. (Note: The actual mean in this case is . ounces, and the median is
. ounces—both just slightly below .)

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2. Given the distribution pictured above and based on the simulation results, determine the approximate probability
of obtaining a Diff value in the cases described in (a), (b), and (c).
a. Of . ounces or more

out of are . or more.

= . = . %

b. Of . ounces or less

out of are . or less.

= . = . %

c. Within . ounces of ounces

out of are between . and . .

= . = . %

d. How do you think these probabilities could be useful to people who are designing experiments?

The probabilities could be used to help determine if the differences occurred by chance or not.

Exercises 3–5 (15 minutes): Statistically Significant Diff Values

Determining how unusual or extreme a Diff value is allows students to then consider if their experiments’ results are
statistically significant. The reasoning is as follows:
5 of these 10 tomatoes are from plants that received a nutrient treatment in the hope of growing bigger
tomatoes, and the other 5 received no such treatment. If the treatment was not effective, then one would
generally expect there to be no difference between the mean of Group A and the mean of Group B when
performing these randomization assignments; in other words, we would expect a value of Diff equal to 0.
However, as seen in the previous lesson, the value of Diff varies due to chance behavior.
After establishing a sense of the full distribution of Diff, if the observed difference from an experiment is
“extreme” (far from 0) and not typical of chance behavior, it may be considered “statistically significant” and
possibly not the result of chance behavior.
If the difference is not the result of chance behavior, then maybe the difference did not just happen by chance
alone.
If the difference didn’t just happen by chance alone, maybe the difference observed in the experiment is
caused by the treatment in question, which, in this case, is the nutrient.

Keep in mind that saying statistically significant in this case means that the observed difference between two groups is
not likely due to chance.

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In Exercises 3–5 and 6–8, students are asked to speculate if certain values of the Diff statistic are statistically significant.
Specifically, students are told that the Diff statistic value should be considered statistically significant if there is a low
probability of obtaining a result as extreme as or more extreme than the value in question. However, a “cutoff value” as
to what is considered a low probability has been deliberately omitted. Ideally, students should give some thought as to
what probability values might be associated with unusual events. In real-world situations, the cutoff probability value
used for determining statistical significance (called a significance level) varies from situation to situation based on
context; however, many introductory statistics references use a value of 0.05, or 5%, as a benchmark.

Exercises 3–5: Statistically Significant Diff Values

In the context of a randomization distribution that is based upon the assumption that there is no real difference between
the groups, consider a Diff value of to be statistically significant if there is a low probability of obtaining a result that is
as extreme as or more extreme than .

3. Using that definition and your work above, would you consider any of the Diff values below to be statistically
significant? Explain.
a. . ounces

Possibly statistically significant; an event with a . % probability of occurring is not a very frequent
occurrence.

b. . ounces

Not statistically significant; an event with a . % probability of occurring is a fairly common occurrence.

c. Values within . ounces of ounces

Values within . ounces of ounces are not statistically significant; these values are not very far from ,
and they are fairly common. Also, given the symmetry, if . is not considered statistically significant
(in part (b), above), then values that are closer to would also not be considered statistically significant.

4. In the previous lessons, you obtained Diff values of . ounces, . ounces, and ounces for different tomato
randomizations. Would you consider any of those values to be statistically significant for this distribution? Explain.

The values of and . ounces would not be statistically significant based on the work above and the fact that
neither value is very far from in the distribution. However, the value of . would be statistically significant
because it is very far from (maximum observation), and there is only a in chance ( . , or . % chance)
of obtaining a value that extreme in this distribution.

5. Recalling that Diff is the mean weight of the Group A tomatoes minus the mean weight of the Group B
tomatoes, how would you explain the meaning of a Diff value of . ounces in this case?

The tomatoes of Group A have a mean weight that is . ounces higher than the mean weight of Group B’s
tomatoes.

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Exercises 6–8 (10 minutes): The Implication of Statistically Significant Diff Values
Read through the exercise as a class. Work through one or two of the Diff values in Exercise 6 as a class. Let students
continue to work with their partners on the exercises. Then, confirm answers as a class.

Exercises 6–8: The Implication of Statistically Significant Diff Values

Keep in mind that for reasons mentioned earlier, the randomization distribution above is demonstrating what is likely to
happen by chance alone if the treatment was not effective. As stated in the previous lesson, you can use this
randomization distribution to assess whether or not the actual difference in means obtained from your experiment (the
difference between the mean weight of the actual control group tomatoes and the mean weight of the actual
treatment group tomatoes) is consistent with usual chance behavior. The logic is as follows:

If the observed difference is “extreme” and not typical of chance behavior, it may be considered statistically
significant and possibly not the result of chance behavior.

If the difference is not the result of chance behavior, then maybe the difference did not just happen by
chance alone.

If the difference did not just happen by chance alone, maybe the difference you observed is caused by the
treatment in question, which, in this case, is the nutrient. In the context of our example, a statistically
significant Diff value provides evidence that the nutrient treatment did in fact yield heavier tomatoes on
average.

6. For reasons that will be explained in the next lesson, for your tomato example, Diff values that are positive and
statistically significant will be considered as good evidence that your nutrient treatment did in fact yield heavier
tomatoes on average. Again, using the randomization distribution shown earlier in the lesson, which (if any) of the
following Diff values would you consider to be statistically significant and lead you to think that the nutrient
treatment did in fact yield heavier tomatoes on average? Explain for each case.

Diff = . , Diff = . , Diff = . , Diff = . , Diff = . , Diff = .

Diff = . : not statistically significant; not very far from ; of values ( . %) are greater than or equal to
. .

Diff = . : not statistically significant; not very far from ; of values ( . %) are greater than or equal to
. .

Diff = . : not statistically significant; not too far from ; of values ( . %) are greater than or equal to
. .

Diff = . : possibly statistically significant; somewhat far from ; of values ( . %) are greater than or
equal to . .

Diff = . : statistically significant; very far from ; only of values ( . %) are greater than or equal to . .

Diff = . : statistically significant; very far from ; only of values ( . %) are greater than or equal to . .

7. In the first random assignment in the previous lesson, you obtained a Diff value of . ounce. Earlier in this
lesson, you were asked to consider if this might be a statistically significant value. Given the distribution shown in
this lesson, if you had obtained a Diff value of . ounces in your experiment and the Group A tomatoes had
been the “treatment” tomatoes that received the nutrient, would you say that the Diff value was extreme enough
to support a conclusion that the nutrient treatment yielded heavier tomatoes on average? Or do you think such a
MP.2 Diff value may just occur by chance when the treatment is ineffective? Explain.

I would say that the Diff value of . was NOT extreme enough to support a conclusion that the nutrient
treatment yielded heavier tomatoes on average. Such a Diff value may just occur by chance in this case. See earlier
work in Exercise 4. Also, referencing the question above, . is even closer to than other not statistically
significant values.

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8. In the second random assignment in the previous lesson, you obtained a Diff value of . ounces. Earlier in this
lesson, you were asked to consider if this might be a statistically significant value. Given the distribution shown in
this lesson, if you had obtained a Diff value of . ounces in your experiment and the Group A tomatoes had
been the “treatment” tomatoes that received the nutrient, would you say that the Diff value was extreme enough
to support a conclusion that the nutrient treatment yielded heavier tomatoes on average? Or do you think such a
MP.2
Diff value may just occur by chance when the treatment is ineffective? Explain.

I would say that the Diff value of . was extreme enough to support a conclusion that the nutrient treatment
yielded heavier tomatoes on average. This most likely did NOT just occur by chance. See earlier work in Exercise 4.
Also, referencing the question above, . is even farther away from than other statistically significant values.

Closing (5 minutes)
If you were about to prepare for a debate, a court case, or some other situation where you were challenging
an existing claim such as “the treatment is not effective” or “the process is not harming anyone,” what kind of
probability value would you be looking for in your results before you would claim statistical significance and
feel comfortable challenging the existing claim? What characteristics of the situation might influence your
decision?
In order to be confident in your challenge, your probability value needs to be fairly small. In the tomato
example, consider that you are saying “If the nutrient was not effective, the chances of our obtaining a
value this extreme in our experiment is ____; therefore, we think the nutrient must be working.” You
are acknowledging that your experiment’s results could still occur a certain percent of the time even if
the nutrient really did not work. If you were trying to convince an audience, a constituency, or a jury,
you probably would not want to say, “There’s a 1 in 3 (33%) chance of obtaining a value this extreme.”
Rather, you would want to say that the chances are “1 in 20 (5%),” or “1 in 100 (1%),” or “1 in 1,000
(0.1%).” Considerations include the amount of money and time required for sampling, the severity of
the claim that is being examined, and the risks of falsely rejecting the claim of “no difference” when it
was true all along, and so on.
Calculate and interpret Diff = in the following instance: Group A: 10 similar homes with insulated
windows have an average monthly electric bill of $123. Group B: 10 similar homes with noninsulated
windows have an average monthly electric bill of $157.
The homes with insulated windows have an average monthly electric bill that is $34 less than the
homes with noninsulated windows.
Ask students to summarize the main ideas of the lesson in writing or with a neighbor. Use this as an opportunity to
informally assess comprehension of the lesson. The Lesson Summary below offers some important ideas that should be
included.

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Lesson Summary
In the previous lesson, the concept of randomly separating tomatoes into groups and comparing the means of
each group was introduced. The randomization distribution of the difference in means that is created from multiple
occurrences of these random assignments demonstrates what is likely to happen by chance alone if the nutrient
treatment is not effective. When the results of your tomato growth experiment are compared to that distribution,
you can then determine if the tomato growth experiment’s results were typical of chance behavior.

If the results appear typical of chance behavior and near the center of the distribution (that is, not relatively very far
from a Diff value of ), then there is little evidence that the treatment was effective. However, if it appears that
the experiment’s results are not typical of chance behavior, then maybe the difference you are observing didn’t just
happen by chance alone. It may indicate a statistically significant difference between the treatment group and the
control group, and the source of that difference might be (in this case) the nutrient treatment.

Exit Ticket (5 minutes)

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Name Date

Lesson 26: Ruling Out Chance

Exit Ticket

Medical patients who are in physical pain are often asked to communicate their level of pain on a scale of 0 to 10 where
0 means no pain and 10 means worst pain. (Note: Sometimes a visual device with pain faces is used to accommodate
the reporting of the pain score.) Due to the structure of the scale, a patient would desire a lower value on this scale
after treatment for pain.

Diff

Imagine that 20 subjects participate in a clinical experiment and that a variable of “ChangeinScore” is recorded for each
subject as the subject’s pain score after treatment minus the subject’s pain score before treatment. Since the
expectation is that the treatment would lower a patient’s pain score, you would desire a negative value for
“ChangeinScore.” For example, a “ChangeinScore” value of 2 would mean that the patient was in less pain
(for example, now at a 6, formerly at an 8).
Recall that Diff = . Although the 20 “ChangeinScore” values for the 20 patients are not shown here, below is a
randomization distribution of the value Diff based on 100 random assignments of these 20 observations into two groups
of 10 (Group A and Group B).

1. From the distribution above, what is the probability of obtaining a Diff value of 1 or less?

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2. With regard to this distribution, would you consider a Diff value of 0.4 to be statistically significant? Explain.

3.
a. With regard to how Diff is calculated, if Group A represented a group of patients in your experiment who
received a new pain relief treatment and Group B received a pill with no medicine (called a placebo), how
would you interpret a Diff value of 1.4 pain scale units in context?

b. Given the distribution above, if you obtained a Diff value such as 1.4 from your experiment, would you
consider that to be significant evidence of the new treatment being effective on average in relieving pain?
Explain.

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

A graphic of the Wong-Baker FACES Pain Rating Scale (as seen in many physicians’ offices) or a similar visual reference
may assist students with the Exit Ticket questions. One can be found at
http://pain.about.com/od/testingdiagnosis/ig/pain-scales/Wong-Baker.htm.

Medical patients who are in physical pain are often asked to communicate their level of pain on a scale of to
where means no pain and means worst pain. (Note: Sometimes a visual device with pain faces is used to
accommodate the reporting of the pain score.) Due to the structure of the scale, a patient would desire a lower
value on this scale after treatment for pain.

Diff
Imagine that subjects participate in a clinical experiment and that a variable of “ChangeinScore” is recorded for each
subject as the subject’s pain score after treatment minus the subject’s pain score before treatment. Since the expectation
is that the treatment would lower a patient’s pain score, you would desire a negative value for “ChangeinScore.” For
example, a “ChangeinScore” value of would mean that the patient was in less pain (for example, now at a , formerly
at an ).

Recall that Diff = . Although the “ChangeinScore” values for the patients are not shown here, below is a
randomization distribution of the value Diff based on random assignments of these observations into two groups
of (Group A and Group B).

1. From the distribution above, what is the probability of obtaining a Diff value of or less?

= . , which is %

2. With regard to this distribution, would you consider a Diff value of . to be statistically significant? Explain.

No. The value is not far from , and of the values in the distribution are at or below . .

3.
a. With regard to how Diff is calculated, if Group A represented a group of patients in your experiment who
received a new pain relief treatment and Group B received a pill with no medicine (called a placebo), how
would you interpret a Diff value of . pain scale units in context?

The group that received the pain relief treatment had an average reduction in pain that was . units better
(lower) than the group that received the placebo.

b. Given the distribution above, if you obtained Diff value such as . from your experiment, would you
consider that to be significant evidence of the new treatment being effective on average in relieving pain?
Explain.

Yes. . is far from , and the probability of obtaining a Diff value of . or less is only %. The value
provides evidence that the new treatment may be effective in relieving pain.

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Problem Set Sample Solutions

In each of the cases below, calculate the Diff value as directed, and write a sentence explaining what the Diff value
means in context. Write the sentence for a general audience.

1. Group A: dieters lost an average of pounds, so = .

Group B: nondieters lost an average of pounds over the same time period, so = .

Calculate and interpret Diff = .

Diff = = ( )= . The dieters lost an average of pounds more than the nondieters.

2. Group A: students were on average . seconds faster in their -meter run times after following a new
training regimen.

Group B: students were on average . seconds slower in their -meter run times after not following any
new training regimens.

Calculate and interpret Diff = .

Diff = . . = . . The students following the new training regimen were on average . seconds
faster in their -meter run times than the students not following any new training regimens.

3. Group A: squash that have been grown in an irrigated field have an average weight of . pounds.

Group B: squash that have been grown in a nonirrigated field have an average weight of . pounds.

Calculate and interpret Diff = .

Diff = . . = . . The squash grown in an irrigated field have an average weight that is . pound
higher than the squash grown in a nonirrigated field.

4. Using the randomization distribution shown below, what is the probability of obtaining a Diff value of . or less?

Diff

= . , which is %

5. Would a Diff value of . or less be considered a statistically significant difference? Why or why not?

No. . is not far from , and the probability of obtaining a Diff value of . or less is %.

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6. Using the randomization distribution shown in Problem 4, what is the probability of obtaining a Diff value of .
or less?

The probability of obtaining a Diff value of . or less is out of , or %.

7. Would a Diff value of . or less be considered a statistically significant difference? Why or why not?

Possibly statistically significant. . is far from , and the probability of obtaining a Diff value of . or less is
only %. The value provides evidence that the new treatment may be effective in relieving pain.

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Lesson 27: Ruling Out Chance

Student Outcomes
Given data from a statistical experiment with two treatments, students create a randomization distribution.
Students use a randomization distribution to determine if there is a significant difference between two
treatments.

Lesson Notes
In this lesson, students perform the five steps of a randomization test to assess if the tomato data provide evidence that
MP.4 the nutrient was effective. All of the steps have been practiced or indirectly discussed in the previous two lessons;
however, now everything is detailed and performed together in context.
In the second half of the lesson, students begin the important task of developing their own randomization
distributions—first manually and then using technology. The use of technology is strongly encouraged to assist in the
steps of a randomization test, specifically a Web-based randomization testing applet/calculator available at
http://www.rossmanchance.com/applets/AnovaShuffle.htm.
This lesson may require slightly more time than the two previous lessons, but it is important that students have a solid
understanding of these steps (and some familiarity with the technology) prior to moving on to the capstone experiences
in the subsequent lessons.

Classwork
Opening (5 minutes)
Before the start of the lesson, ask students to recall what they have learned from earlier lessons, either in writing or by
speaking to a neighbor, and then share with the class.
To recap some highlights of the past few lessons:
You have learned how to carry out repeated random assignments to develop a randomization
distribution for the difference in means of two groups.
You have also established a method for determining if a specific difference value in this distribution is
considered extreme or significant.
When a specific difference is significant, it is evidence that the specific difference did not occur by
chance alone and may have in fact occurred due to something other than chance; for example, a
treatment may have been imposed in one of an experiment’s groups.

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Exercises 1–4 (15 minutes): Carrying Out a Randomization Test

Before students begin the exercises, use the following question to encourage discussion about what is needed to carry
out a randomization test. Allow for multiple student responses.
Think back to the work done with the tomato experiment. Statisticians agree there are five important parts to
the process of using randomization to reach a conclusion in an experiment. Using what we’ve learned, see
how many you can come up with on your own.
Work through Exercises 1–4 as a class. Pose one question at a time, and allow sufficient time for discussion of each step
for carrying out a randomization test.

Exercises 1–4: Carrying Out a Randomization Test

The following are the general steps for carrying out a randomization test to analyze the results of an experiment.
The steps are also presented in the context of the tomato example of the previous lessons.

Step 1—Develop competing claims: no difference versus difference.

One claim corresponds to no difference between the two groups in the experiment. This claim is
called the null hypothesis. Scaffolding:
For the tomato example, the null hypothesis is that the nutrient treatment is not Students may want to
effective in increasing tomato weight. This is equivalent to saying that the average create a Frayer diagram
weight of treated tomatoes may be the same as the average weight of nontreated and/or rehearse with null
(control) tomatoes. hypothesis and alternative
The competing claim corresponds to a difference between the two groups. This claim could take hypothesis.
the form of a different from, greater than, or less than statement. This claim is called the
After the 5 steps are
alternative hypothesis.
introduced, consider
For the tomato example, the alternative hypothesis is that the nutrient treatment is asking students to restate,
effective in increasing tomato weight. This is equivalent to saying that the average
write, or draw their own
weight of treated tomatoes is greater than the average weight of nontreated
(control) tomatoes.
representations of them.
For advanced students,
ask them to use the 5
1. Previously, the statistic of interest that you used was the difference between the mean
weight of the tomatoes in Group A and the mean weight of the tomatoes in Group B.
steps to design their own
That difference was called Diff. Diff = If the treatment tomatoes are represented randomized experiment to
by Group A and the control tomatoes are represented by Group B, what type of statistically answer a question of
significant values of Diff would support the claim that the average weight of treated interest.
tomatoes is greater than the average weight of nontreated (control) tomatoes: negative
values of Diff positive values of Diff or both? Explain.

For the tomato example, since the treatment group is Group A, the Diff value of is .
Since the alternative claim is supported by > , we are seeking statistically significant Diff values
that are positive since if > , then > . Statistically significant values of Diff
that are negative in this case would imply that the treatment made the tomatoes smaller on average.

Note: The answer/information above appears in Step 4 of the randomization test of the student material.

Step 2—Take measurements from each group, and calculate the value of the Diff statistic from the experiment.

For the tomato example, first, measure the weights of the tomatoes from the treatment group (Group A); next,
measure the weights of the tomatoes from the control group (Group B); finally, compute Diff = , which will
serve as the result from your experiment.

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2. Assume that the following represents the two groups of tomatoes from the actual experiment. Calculate the value
of Diff = . This will serve as the result from your experiment.

These are the same tomatoes used in previous lessons; the identification of which tomatoes are treatment
versus control is now revealed.

TREATMENT CONTROL
Group A Group B

9.1 7.7

8.4 6.4

8.0 5.2

7.3 4.4

5.9 3.8
Diff = . . = .

Again, these tomatoes represent the actual result from your experiment. You will now create the randomization
distribution by making repeated random assignments of these tomatoes into groups and recording the observed
difference in means for each random assignment. This develops a randomization distribution of the many possible
difference values that could occur under the assumption that there is no difference between the mean weights of
tomatoes that receive the treatment and tomatoes that don’t receive the treatment.

Step 3—Randomly assign the observations to two groups, and calculate the difference between the group means. Repeat
this several times, recording each difference. This will create the randomization distribution for the Diff statistic.

Examples of this technique were presented in a previous lesson. For the tomato example, the randomization distribution
has already been presented in a previous lesson and is shown again here. The dots are placed at increments of .
ounces.

Diff

Step 4—With reference to the randomization distribution (Step 3) and the inequality in your alternative hypothesis
(Step 1), compute the probability of getting a Diff value as extreme as or more extreme than the Diff value you obtained
in your experiment (Step 2).

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For the tomato example, since the treatment group is Group A, the Diff value of is . Since
the alternative claim is supported by > , you are seeking statistically significant Diff values that are
positive since if > , then > .

Statistically significant values of Diff that are negative, in this case, would imply that the treatment made the tomatoes
smaller on average.

3. Using your calculation from Exercise 2, determine the probability of getting a Diff value as extreme as or more
extreme than the Diff value you obtained for this experiment (in Step 2).

out of is . , which is . %

Step 5—Make a conclusion in context based on the probability calculation (Step 4).

If there is a small probability of obtaining a Diff value as extreme as or more extreme than the Diff value you obtained in
your experiment, then the Diff value from the experiment is unusual and not typical of chance behavior. Your
experiment’s results probably did not happen by chance, and the results probably occurred because of a statistically
significant difference in the two groups.

In the tomato experiment, if you think there is a statistically significant difference in the two groups, you
have evidence that the treatment may in fact be yielding heavier tomatoes on average.

If there is not a small probability of obtaining a Diff value as extreme as or more extreme than the Diff value you
obtained in your experiment, then your Diff value from the experiment is NOT considered unusual and could be typical of
chance behavior. The experiment’s results may have just happened by chance and not because of a statistically
significant difference in the two groups.

In the tomato experiment, if you don’t think that there is a statistically significant difference in the two
groups, then you do not have evidence that the treatment results in larger tomatoes on average.

In some cases, a specific cutoff value called a significance level might be employed to assist in determining how small this
probability must be in order to consider results statistically significant.

4. Based on your probability calculation in Exercise 3, do the data from the tomato experiment support the claim that
the treatment yields heavier tomatoes on average? Explain.

The data from the tomato experiment support the claim that the treatment yields heavier tomatoes on average.
The probability of obtaining a Diff value as extreme as or more extreme than . is very small if the treatment is
ineffective. This means that there is a statistically significant difference between the average weights of the
treatment and control tomatoes, with the treatment tomatoes being heavier on average.

Exercises 5–10 (10 minutes): Developing the Randomization Distribution

In this set of exercises, students begin the important task of developing their own randomization distributions—first
MP.5 manually and then using technology. Students’ work will vary, so there are no specific single answers for certain tasks in
this teacher material.
For Exercises 5–7 under Manually Generated, it is strongly recommended that the performing of random assignments
(and computing of the Diff statistic) be distributed among the class rather than having any one individual perform too
many of these randomizations by hand. While the task may be repetitive, it is important for students to grasp what a
randomization distribution is, how it is developed, and how technology can greatly assist.

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Exercises 5–10: Developing the Randomization Distribution

Although you are familiar with how a randomization distribution is created in the tomato example, the randomization
distribution was provided for you. In this exercise, you will develop two randomization distributions based on the same
group of tomatoes. One distribution will be developed by hand and will contain the results of at least random
assignments. The second distribution will be developed using technology and will contain the results of at least
random assignments. Once the two distributions have been developed, you will be asked to compare the distributions.

Manually Generated

Your instructor will provide you with specific guidance regarding how many random assignments you need to carry out.
Ultimately, your class should generate at least random assignments, compute the Diff value for each, and record
these or more Diff values on a class or an individual dot plot.

5. To begin, write the tomato weights on equally sized slips of paper, one weight on each slip. Place the slips in
a container, and shake the container well. Remove slips, and assign those tomatoes as Group A. The remaining
tomatoes will serve as Group B.

For the manually generated randomization distribution, it states that students can use equally sized pieces of
paper to be selected from a container. However, manipulatives such as small chips or checkers would be fine as
well.

6. Calculate the mean weight for Group A and the mean weight for Group B. Then, calculate Diff = for this
random assignment.

See above.

7. Record your Diff value, and add this value to the dot plot. Repeat as needed per your instructor’s request until a
manually generated randomization distribution of at least differences has been achieved.

(Note: This distribution will most likely be slightly different from the tomato randomization distribution given
earlier in this lesson.)

Students’ work will vary. Overall, the manually generated distribution for the Diff statistic in this tomato example
should not differ too much from the distribution presented previously in this and other lessons.

As stated earlier, when it is time to move on to Exercises 8–10, students’ computers (or at least one station in the
classroom) require Internet access in order to use the Anova Shuffle applet. Instructor practice with the applet
beforehand is recommended. Specific instructions, comments, and recommendations regarding its use appear in the
student lesson material.
This computer-generated distribution is most likely slightly different from both the randomization distribution that
appeared earlier in this lesson and the randomization distribution that was manually generated.

Computer Generated

At this stage, you will be encouraged to use a Web-based randomization testing applet/calculator to perform the steps
above. The applet is located at http://www.rossmanchance.com/applets/AnovaShuffle.htm. To supplement the
instructions below, a screenshot of the applet appears as the final page of this lesson.

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Upon reaching the applet, do the following:

Press the Clear button to clear the data under Sample Data.

Enter the tomato data exactly as shown below. When finished, press the Use Data button.

Group Ounces
Treatment 9.1
Treatment 8.4
Treatment 8
Control 7.7
Treatment 7.3
Control 6.4
Treatment 5.9
Control 5.2
Control 4.4
Control 3.8

Once the data are entered, notice that dot plots of the two groups appear. Also, the statistic window below
the data now says “difference in means,” and an Observed Diff value of . is computed for the
experiment’s data (just as you computed in Exercise 2).

By design, the applet will determine the difference of means based on the first group name it encounters in
the data set—specifically, it will use the first group name it encounters as the first value in the difference of
means calculation. In other words, to compute the difference in means as , a Treatment
observation needs to appear prior to any Control observations in the data set as entered.

Select the check box next to Show Shuffle Options, and a dot plot template will appear.

Enter in the box next to Number of Shuffles, and press the Shuffle Responses button. A randomization
distribution based on randomizations (in the form of a histogram) is created.

This distribution will most likely be slightly different from both the tomato randomization distribution that
appeared earlier in this lesson and the randomization distribution that was manually generated in Exercise 7.

8. Write a few comments comparing the manually generated distribution and the computer-generated distribution.
Specifically, did they appear to have roughly the same shape, center, and spread?

Students should compare and contrast the shape, center, and spread characteristics of the manually generated and
computer-generated distributions. There should be a great deal of similarity, but outliers and slightly different
clustering patterns may be present.

The applet also allows you to compute probabilities. For this case:

Under Count Samples, select Greater Than. Then, in the box next to Greater Than, enter . .

Since the applet computes the count value as strictly greater than and not greater than or equal to, in order
to obtain the probability of obtaining a value as extreme as or more extreme than the Observed Diff value of
. , you will need to enter a value just slightly below . to ensure that Diff observations of . are
included in the count.

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Select the Count button. The probability of obtaining a Diff value of . or more in this distribution will be
computed for you.

The applet displays the randomization distribution in the form of a histogram, and it shades in red all
histogram classes that contain any difference values that meet your Count Samples criteria. Due to the
grouping and binning of the classes, some of the red shaded classes (bars) may also contain difference values
that do not fit your Count Samples criteria. Just keep in mind that the Count value stated in red below the
histogram will be exact; the red shading in the histogram may be approximate.

9. How did the probability of obtaining a Diff value of . or more using your computer-generated distribution
compare with the probability of obtaining a Diff value of . or more using your manually generated distribution?

It is expected that the event of finding a Diff value of . or more will have a similarly rare probability of
occurrence in both the manually generated and the computer-generated distributions.

10. Would you come to the same conclusion regarding the experiment using either the computer-generated or manually
generated distribution? Explain. Is this the same conclusion you came to using the distribution shown earlier in this
lesson back in Step 3?

Based on the assumptions regarding the similarity of the distributions as described in Exercise 9 above, it is expected
that students will come to the same conclusion (that the treatment is effective) from both the manually generated
and the computer-generated distributions as was seen in Exercise 4.

Closing (5 minutes)
Realizing that this lesson may require more time than others, if time permits, consider posing the following questions;
allow a few student responses for each, or consider investigation/research outside of class.
Although the idea of randomization testing has been around since the 1930s, it was not used much in practice
until the later part of the 20th century. Why might that be?
The computing power necessary to develop a randomization distribution based on numerous random
assignments—particularly from data sets with far more observations than those seen in these lessons—
was just not as easily or cheaply available in the early 20th century. With technology today, we can
develop a randomization distribution from a large data set and from a very high number of random
assignments in seconds.
In the previous lesson’s Exit Ticket problems, a pain reliever was tested. Subjects who did not receive the pain
reliever still received a pill, but the pill had no medicine. Why would this step be taken?
Many experiments have shown that human beings tend to exhibit a
Scaffolding:
positive result such as an improvement in pain or a loss of weight even
when they are unknowingly taking medicine that has no real medicine or Some students may not be
benefit, known as a placebo. Since some people in the experiment might familiar with the word placebo.
exhibit this “placebo effect,” rather than compare the treatment group Have students look up the
to a group that receives nothing at all, it is important to establish a definition and put it in their
own words to ensure they
baseline of comparison that accounts for this power of suggestion in the
understand the meaning.
subjects’ minds; thus, the control group is given a placebo without their
knowledge.

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Ask students to summarize the main ideas of the lesson in writing or with a neighbor. Use this as an opportunity to
informally assess comprehension of the lesson. The Lesson Summary below offers some important ideas that should be
included.

Lesson Summary
The following are the general steps for carrying out a randomization test to analyze the results of an experiment:

Step 1—Develop competing claims: no difference versus difference.

Develop the null hypothesis: This claim is that there is no difference between the two groups in the
experiment.

Develop the alternative hypothesis: The competing claim is that there is a difference between the two
groups. This difference could take the form of a different from, greater than, or less than statement
depending on the purpose of the experiment and the claim being assessed.

Step 2—Take measurements from each group, and calculate the value of the Diff statistic from the experiment.

This is the observed Diff value from the experiment.

Step 3—Randomly assign the observations to two groups, and calculate the difference between the group means.
Repeat this several times, recording each difference.

This will create the randomization distribution for the Diff statistic under the assumption that there is no
statistically significant difference between the two groups.

Step 4—With reference to the randomization distribution (from Step 3) and the inequality in your alternative
hypothesis (from Step 1), compute the probability of getting a Diff value as extreme as or more extreme than the
Diff value you obtained in your experiment (from Step 2).

Step 5—Make a conclusion in context based on the probability calculation (from Step 4).

Small probability: If the Diff value from the experiment is unusual and not typical of chance behavior, your
experiment’s results probably did not happen by chance. The results probably occurred because of a
statistically significant difference in the two groups.

Not a small probability: If the Diff value from the experiment is not considered unusual and could be
typical of chance behavior, your experiment’s results may have just happened by chance and not because
of a statistically significant difference in the two groups.

Note: The use of technology is strongly encouraged to assist in Steps 2–4.

Exit Ticket (10 minutes)

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Name Date

Lesson 27: Ruling Out Chance

Exit Ticket

In the Exit Ticket of a previous lesson, an experiment with 20 subjects investigating a new pain reliever was introduced.
The subjects were asked to communicate their level of pain on a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means no pain and 10 means
worst pain. Due to the structure of the scale, a patient would desire a lower value on this scale after treatment for pain.
The value “ChangeinScore” was recorded as the subject’s pain score after treatment minus the subject’s pain score
before treatment. Since the expectation is that the treatment would lower a patient’s pain score, a negative value
would be desired for “ChangeinScore.” For example, a “ChangeinScore” value of 2 would mean that the patient was in
less pain (for example, now at a 6, formerly at an 8).
In the experiment, the null hypothesis would be that the treatment had no effect. The average change in pain score for
the treatment group would be the same as the average change in pain score for the placebo (control) group.

1. The alternative hypothesis would be that the treatment was effective. Using this context, which mathematical
relationship below would match this alternative hypothesis? Choose one.

a. The average change in pain score (the average “ChangeinScore”) for the treatment group would be less than
the average change in pain score for the placebo group (supported by < , or
< 0).
b. The average change in pain score (the average “ChangeinScore”) for the treatment group would be greater
than the average change in pain score for the placebo group (supported by > , or
> 0).

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2. Imagine that the 20 “ChangeinScore” observations below represent the change in pain levels of the 20 subjects
(chronic pain sufferers) who participated in the clinical experiment. The 10 individuals in Group A (the treatment
group) received a new medicine for their pain while the 10 individuals in Group B received the pill with no medicine
(placebo). Assume for now that the 20 individuals have similar initial pain levels and medical conditions. Calculate
the value of Diff = = . This is the result from the experiment.

Group ChangeinScore
A 0
A 0
A -1
A -1
A -2
A -2
A -3
A -3
A -3
A -4
B 0
B 0
B 0
B 0
B 0
B 0
B -1
B -1
B -1
B -2

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3. Below is a randomization distribution of the value Diff = based on 100 random assignments of these
20 observations into two groups of 10 (shown in a previous lesson).

Diff

With reference to the randomization distribution above and the inequality in your alternative hypothesis, compute
the probability of getting a Diff value as extreme as or more extreme than the Diff value you obtained in the
experiment.

4. Based on your probability value from Problem 3 and the randomization distribution above, choose one of the
following conclusions:

a. Due to the small chance of obtaining a Diff value as extreme as or more extreme than the Diff value obtained
in the experiment, we believe that the observed difference did not happen by chance alone, and we support
the claim that the treatment is effective.
b. Because the chance of obtaining a Diff value as extreme as or more extreme than the Diff value obtained in
the experiment is not small, it is possible that the observed difference may have happened by chance alone,
and we cannot support the claim that the treatment is effective.

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

In the Exit Ticket of a previous lesson, an experiment with subjects investigating a new pain reliever was introduced.
The subjects were asked to communicate their level of pain on a scale of to where means no pain and means
worst pain. Due to the structure of the scale, a patient would desire a lower value on this scale after treatment for pain.
The value “ChangeinScore” was recorded as the subject’s pain score after treatment minus the subject’s pain score before
treatment. Since the expectation is that the treatment would lower a patient’s pain score, a negative value would be
desired for “ChangeinScore.” For example, a “ChangeinScore” value of would mean that the patient was in less pain
(for example, now at a , formerly at an ).

In the experiment, the null hypothesis would be that the treatment had no effect. The average change in pain score for
the treatment group would be the same as the average change in pain score for the placebo (control) group.

1. The alternative hypothesis would be that the treatment was effective. Using this context, which mathematical
relationship below would match this alternative hypothesis? Choose one.

a. The average change in pain score (the average “ChangeinScore”) for the treatment group would be less than
the average change in pain score for the placebo group (supported by < , or
< ).
b. The average change in pain score (the average “ChangeinScore”) for the treatment group would be greater
than the average change in pain score for the placebo group (supported by > , or
> ).

Choice (a): The average change in pain score (the average “ChangeinScore”) for the treatment group would
be less than the average change in pain score for the placebo group.

2. Imagine that the “ChangeinScore” observations below represent the change in pain levels of the subjects
(chronic pain sufferers) who participated in the clinical experiment. The individuals in Group A (the treatment
group) received a new medicine for their pain while the individuals in Group B received the pill with no medicine
(placebo). Assume for now that the individuals have similar initial pain levels and medical conditions. Calculate
the value of Diff = = . This is the result from the experiment.

Diff = . (Group A mean = . ; Group B mean = . )

Group ChangeinScore
A 0
A 0
A -1
A -1
A -2
A -2
A -3
A -3
A -3
A -4
B 0
B 0
B 0
B 0
B 0
B 0
B -1
B -1
B -1
B -2

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3. Below is a randomization distribution of the value Diff = based on random assignments of these
observations into two groups of (shown in a previous lesson).

Diff

With reference to the randomization distribution above and the inequality in your alternative hypothesis, compute
the probability of getting a Diff value as extreme as or more extreme than the Diff value you obtained in the
experiment.

% ( out of )

4. Based on your probability value from Problem 3 and the randomization distribution above, choose one of the
following conclusions:

a. Due to the small chance of obtaining a Diff value as extreme as or more extreme than the Diff value obtained
in the experiment, we believe that the observed difference did not happen by chance alone, and we support
the claim that the treatment is effective.
b. Because the chance of obtaining a Diff value as extreme as or more extreme than the Diff value obtained in
the experiment is not small, it is possible that the observed difference may have happened by chance alone,
and we cannot support the claim that the treatment is effective.

Choice (a): Due to the small chance of obtaining a Diff value as extreme as or more extreme than the Diff
value obtained in the experiment, we believe that the observed difference did not happen by chance alone,
and we support the claim that the treatment is effective.

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Problem Set Sample Solutions

1. Using the observations that appear in the table below for the changes in pain scores of individuals, use the
Anova Shuffle applet to develop a randomization distribution of the value Diff = based on random
assignments of these observations into two groups of . Enter the data exactly as shown below. Describe
similarities and differences between this new randomization distribution and the distribution shown.

Diff

Answers will vary, but the distribution should not differ too much from the distribution presented previously in this
lesson (Exit Ticket Problem 3) and other lessons.

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2. In a previous lesson, the burn times of candles were presented. It is believed that candles from Group A will burn
longer on average than candles from Group B. The data from the experiment (now shown with group identifiers)
are provided below.

Group Burntime
A 18
A 12
B 9
A 6
B 3
B 0

Perform a randomization test of this claim. Carry out all 5 steps, and use the Anova Shuffle applet to perform Steps
2–4. Enter the data exactly as presented above, and in Step 3, develop the randomization distribution based on
random assignments.

Step 1—Null hypothesis: Candles from Group A will burn for the same amount of time on average as candles from
Group B (no difference in average burn time).

Alternative hypothesis: Candles from Group A will burn longer on average than candles from Group B.

Step 2—Diff = =

Step 3—Randomization distribution of Diff developed by student

Step 4—Compute probability of Diff greater than or equal to (value should be close to %).

Step 5—While there are no specific criteria stated in the question for what is a “small probability,” students should
consider probability values from previous work in determining “small” versus “not small.” Again, student values
will vary. The important point is that students’ conclusions should be consistent with the probability value and
students’ assessment of that value as follows:

If students deem the probability to be “small,” then they should state a conclusion based on a statistically
significant result. More specifically, due to the small chance of obtaining a Diff value as extreme as or more
extreme than the Diff value obtained in the experiment, it is believed that the observed difference did not happen
by chance alone, and we support the claim that the Group A candles burn longer on average.

If students deem the probability to be NOT “small,” then they should state a conclusion based on a result that is
NOT statistically significant. More specifically, it is believed that the observed difference may have occurred by
chance, and we do NOT have evidence to support the claim that the Group A candles burn longer on average.

Lesson 27: Ruling Out Chance 357

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Appendix: Screenshot of Applet

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Lesson 28: Drawing a Conclusion from an Experiment

Student Outcomes
Students carry out a statistical experiment to compare two treatments.
Given data from a statistical experiment with two treatments, students create a randomization distribution.
Students use a randomization distribution to determine if there is a significant difference between two
treatments.

Lesson Notes
In these next two lessons, students participate in the capstone experience of conducting all phases of an experiment:
collecting data, creating a randomization distribution based on these data, determining if there is a significant difference
in treatment effects, and reporting their findings. The first of these two lessons deals with executing the experiment,
collecting the data, and coming to a conclusion via a randomization test. The subsequent lesson asks students to
develop a comprehensive report.
As mentioned in the student material, the following experiments are in homage to George E. P. Box, a statistician who
worked extensively in the areas of quality control, design of experiments, and other topics. He earned the honor of
Fellow of the Royal Society during his career and is a former president of the American Statistical Association. Several
resources are available regarding his work and life including the book Statistics for Experimenters: Design, Innovation,
and Discovery by Box, Hunter, and Hunter. There is other material written by and about him that would be accessible to
secondary school students interested in learning more.
Box would use paper helicopters in some of his classes to provide students with a tangible (and low-cost) experience
with experimental design and analysis. The experiments in this lesson investigate if modifications in certain dimensions
of a paper helicopter affect its flight time. A blueprint and construction notes appear at the end of the student lesson.
Consider practicing making and flying a few of these helicopters in the days leading up to the lesson. Students are
advised that they may want to use a piece of tape to secure the two folded body panels to the body of the helicopter for
greater stability. By design, there is some overlap from this folding in some helicopters.

Classwork
Scaffolding:
At the start of the lesson, ask students to restate to a partner or in writing the important Consider showing a visual,
parts of experimental design they have learned. such as a poster with all
First, read through the opening text with students, and briefly summarize the experiment. directions, to help
Then, allow students to work on the exercises with a partner or in a small group. describe the experiment.
Ask students to restate the
While students’ data will vary, generally speaking: directions either verbally
The helicopters with longer wings should stay in flight longer, on average, than or by writing them.
the helicopters with shorter wings.
The helicopters with wider bodies (this variable is explored in the Problem Set) should have an average flight
time that is significantly less than the average flight time of the helicopters with narrower bodies.

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Two key points before starting:

If students discover a significant difference in any of the experiments, they should be careful not to
overgeneralize or extrapolate their findings. For example, observed differences may or may not occur with
larger helicopters or helicopters made of different material. Moreover, students should not assume that the
significant difference in average flight time observed by a longer wing length of 1 inch would necessarily be
doubled (or even occur at all) if the wing length was increased by 2 inches, for example.
Encourage students to minimize potentially confounding factors that could distort the data collection. For
example, find an environment that is as windless as possible, use the same type of paper for all helicopters,
drop them all from the same height, and so on. Also, have students randomize the order in which they drop
the first 30 helicopters so that any peculiar, unforeseen, or unknown factors that may affect flight times are
distributed among the groups and not necessarily localized to any one group.
This lesson does require the use of scissors, tape, a stopwatch, a ruler, and possibly a measuring tape.

In this lesson, you will be conducting all phases of an experiment: collecting data, creating a randomization distribution
based on these data, and determining if there is a significant difference in treatment effects. In the next lesson, you will
develop a report of your findings.

The following experiments are in homage to George E. P. Box, a famous statistician who worked extensively in the areas
of quality control, design of experiments, and other topics. He earned the honor of Fellow of the Royal Society during his
career and is a former president of the American Statistical Association. Several resources are available regarding his
work and life including the book Statistics for Experimenters: Design, Innovation, and Discovery by Box, Hunter, and
Hunter.

The experiments will investigate whether modifications in certain dimensions of a paper helicopter will affect its flight
time.

Exercise (5 minutes): Build the Helicopters Scaffolding:

This task may be performed in advance of the day of data collection. Also, it is strongly According to the needs of
recommended that multiple copies of the original helicopter blueprint be available. students, consider making the
Consider posing the following question to the class, and allow for multiple responses: experimental design and
execution as unstructured as
What are some statistical questions you would want to answer about
possible. Give students an
helicopters? opportunity to design an
effective experiment as
Exercise: Build the Helicopters independently as possible.
In preparation for your data collection, you will need to construct paper helicopters following Consider using each exercise as
the blueprint given at the end of this lesson. For consistency, use the same type of paper for each a task that students should
helicopter. For greater stability, you may want to use a piece of tape to secure the two folded complete and use to assess
body panels to the body of the helicopter. By design, there will be some overlap from this folding their progress in the
in some helicopters.
experiment.
You will carry out an experiment to investigate the effect of wing length on flight time.

a. Construct helicopters with wing length of inches and body length of inches. Label each of these
helicopters with the word long.

b. Take the other helicopters, and cut inch off each of the wings so that you have helicopters with
-inch wings. Label each of these helicopters with the word short.

c. How do you think wing length will affect flight time? Explain your answer.

Answers will vary. I think that a longer wing length will produce more resistance to the air, which will result
in a longer flight time.

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Exploratory Challenge 1 (15 minutes): Data Collection

From a consistent height (preferably 12 feet or higher), drop each of the 20 helicopters one at a time in a random order.
Record the time it takes for each helicopter to reach the ground. Encourage students to record any relevant comments
such as “this group’s helicopters had a smoother flight,” and so on.

Exploratory Challenge 1: Data Collection

Once you have built the helicopters, each of them will be flown by dropping the helicopter from a fixed distance
above the ground (preferably feet or higher—record this height for use when presenting your findings later). For
consistency, drop all helicopters from the same height each time, and try to perform this exercise in a space where
possible confounding factors such as wind gusts and drafts from heating and air conditioning are eliminated.
a. Place the helicopters in a bag, shake the bag, and randomly pull out one helicopter. Drop the helicopter
from the starting height and, using a stopwatch, record the amount of time it takes until the helicopter
reaches the ground. Write down this flight time in the appropriate column in the table below. Repeat for the
remaining helicopters.
Some helicopters might fly more smoothly than others; you may want to record relevant comments in your
report.

Answers will vary.

Flight Time (seconds)

Long Wings (Group A) Short Wings (Group B)

b. Why might it be important to randomize (impartially select) the order in which the helicopters were
dropped?

(This is different from the randomization you perform later when you are allocating observations to groups to
develop the randomization distribution.)

Randomizing the order in which the helicopters are dropped will allow any peculiar, unforeseen, or
unknown factors that may affect flight times to be distributed among the groups and not necessarily be
localized to any one group.

Exploratory Challenge 2 (15 minutes): Developing Claims and Using Technology

Exploratory Challenge 2: Developing Claims and Using Technology

With the data in hand, you will now perform your analysis regarding the effect of wing length.

Experiment: Wing Length

In this experiment, you will examine whether wing length makes a difference in flight time. You will compare the
helicopters with long wings (wing length of inches, Group A) to the helicopters with short wings (wing length of
MP.3 inches, Group B). Since you are dropping the helicopters from the same height in the same location, using the same type
of paper, the only difference in the two groups will be the different wing lengths.

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Questions: Does a -inch addition in wing length appear to result in a change in average flight time? If so, do helicopters
with longer wing length or shorter wing length tend to have longer flight times on average?

Carry out a complete randomization test to answer these questions. Show all 5 steps, and use the Anova Shuffle applet
MP.5 described in the previous lessons to assist both in creating the distribution and with your computations. Be sure to write
a final conclusion that clearly answers the questions in context.

Step 1—Null hypothesis: A -inch increase in wing length does not change average flight time.

Alternative hypothesis: A -inch increase in wing length changes average flight time.

Step 2—Students compute Diff from the experiment’s data. The value WILL most likely be statistically significant.

Step 3—Randomization distribution of Diff developed by student using applet

Step 4—Compute the probability of obtaining a Diff more extreme than the value from the experiment. Since the original
question is asking about a change in flight times (as opposed to a strict increase or decrease), the alternative hypothesis is
of the form “different from,” and students should select the beyond choice from the applet under Count Samples.

Step 5—While there are no specific criteria stated in the question for what is a small probability, students should consider
probability values from previous work in determining “small” versus “not small.” Again, student values will vary. The
important point is that students’ conclusions should be consistent with the probability value and their assessments of that
value as follows:

If students deem the probability to be “small,” then they should state a conclusion based on a statistically
significant result. More specifically, we support the claim that a -inch increase in wing length changes
average flight time. Given the sign of the observed difference and the method students have chosen for
computing Diff (e.g., was it Group A’s mean minus Group B’s mean?), they should state as to whether the
-inch increase in wing length appears to increase or decrease the average flight time.

If students deem the probability to be NOT “small,” then they should state a conclusion based on a result that
is NOT statistically significant. More specifically, we DO NOT have evidence to support the claim that a -inch
increase in wing length changes average flight time.

The expectation is that the helicopters with longer wings should stay in flight longer on average than the helicopters with
shorter wings.

Closing (5 minutes)
What other characteristics of the helicopter could you modify to perform further experiments in flight times?
Body length, wing width, “middle body” width, material used, etc.
Ask students to summarize the main ideas of the lesson in writing or with a neighbor. Use this as an opportunity to
informally assess comprehension of the lesson. The Lesson Summary below offers some important ideas that should be
included.

Lesson Summary
In previous lessons, you learned how to carry out a randomization test to decide if there was a statistically
significant difference between two groups in an experiment. Throughout these previous lessons, certain aspects of
proper experimental design were discussed. In this lesson, you were able to carry out a complete experiment and
collect your own data. When an experiment is developed, you must be careful to minimize confounding effects that
may compromise or invalidate findings. When possible, the treatment groups should be created so that the only
distinction between the groups in the experiment is the treatment imposed.

Exit Ticket (5 minutes)

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Name Date

Lesson 28: Drawing a Conclusion from an Experiment

Exit Ticket

Explain why you constructed a randomization distribution in order to decide if wing length has an effect on flight time.

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

Explain why you constructed a randomization distribution in order to decide if wing length has an effect on flight time.

There is variability in flight times even for helicopters that have the same wing length. This means that two groups of
helicopters with the same wing lengths will still have different mean flight times. So, when we see a difference in the
mean flight time for short-wing helicopters and long-wing helicopters, we need to know if that difference is bigger than
the kind of differences we would see just by chance when there is no difference in wing length. This is how we can tell if
our observed difference between the flight times of long- and short-winged helicopters is significant enough that we don’t
think it is just due to chance.

Problem Set Sample Solutions

One other variable that can be adjusted in the paper helicopters is body width. See the blueprints for details.

1. Construct helicopters using the blueprint from the lesson. Label each helicopter with the word narrow.
2. Develop a blueprint for a helicopter that is identical to the blueprint used in class except for the fact that the body
width will now be . inches.
3. Use the blueprint to construct of these new helicopters, and label each of these helicopters with the word wide.

4. Place the helicopters in a bag, shake the bag, and randomly pull out one helicopter. Drop the helicopter from
the starting height and, using a stopwatch, record the amount of time it takes until the helicopter reaches the
ground. Write down this flight time in the appropriate column in the table below. Repeat for the remaining
helicopters.

Flight Time (seconds)

Narrow Body (Group C) Wide Body (Group D)

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5. Questions: Does a . -inch addition in body width appear to result in a change in average flight time? If so, do
helicopters with wider body width (Group D) or narrower body width (Group C) tend to have longer flight times on
average? Carry out a complete randomization test to answer these questions. Show all 5 steps, and use the Anova
Shuffle applet described in previous lessons to assist both in creating the distribution and with your computations.
Be sure to write a final conclusion that clearly answers the questions in context.

Once the helicopter flight time data are collected…

Step 1—Null hypothesis: A . -inch addition in body width does not change average flight time.

Alternative hypothesis: A . -inch addition in body width changes average flight time.

Step 2—Students compute Diff from the experiment’s data. The value WILL most likely be statistically significant.

Step 3—Randomization distribution of Diff developed by student using applet

Step 4—Compute the probability of obtaining a Diff more extreme than the value from the experiment. Since the
original question is asking about a change in flight times (as opposed to a strict increase or decrease), the
alternative hypothesis is of the form “different from,” and students should select the beyond choice from the applet
under Count Samples.

Step 5—While there are no specific criteria stated in the question for what is a small probability, students should
consider probability values from previous work in determining “small” versus “not small.” Again, student values
will vary. The important point is that students’ conclusions should be consistent with the probability value and their
assessments of that value as follows:

If students deem the probability to be “small,” then they should state a conclusion based on a
statistically significant result. More specifically, we support the claim that a . -inch addition in body
width changes average flight time. Given the sign of the observed difference and the method students
have chosen for computing Diff (e.g., was it Group D’s mean minus Group C’s mean?), they should state
as to whether the . -inch increase in body width appears to increase or decrease the average flight
time.

If students deem the probability to be NOT “small,” then they should state a conclusion based on a
result that is NOT statistically significant. More specifically, we DO NOT have evidence to support the
claim that a . -inch addition in body width changes average flight time.

The expectation is that the Group D helicopters (with wider body width) should have an average flight time that is
significantly less than the average flight time of the control helicopters of Group C.

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Appendix: Blueprint

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Lesson 29: Drawing a Conclusion from an Experiment

Student Outcomes
Students carry out a statistical experiment to compare two treatments.
Given data from a statistical experiment with two treatments, students create a randomization distribution.
Students use a randomization distribution to determine if there is a significant difference between two
treatments.

Classwork
In this lesson, students develop a comprehensive poster summarizing the experiments involving helicopter Groups A, B,
MP.3 and C. The poster should address the results of both Experiments 1 and 2 regarding the effects of both body width and
wing length.
As part of the lesson, students should be provided with an instructor-customized rubric for assessing a poster. A sample
rubric from the American Statistical Association (ASA) is attached at the end of the teacher notes and was taken from
“Poster Judging Rubric” at the “Poster Competition and Project Competition” page of the American Statistical
Association, www.amstat.org/education/posterprojects/pdfs/PosterJudgingRubric.pdf. It is stated in the student lesson
that the instructor provides more specific instructions and possibly a more defined (or otherwise modified) rubric.
Specifically, it also says, “Your instructor will provide guidance as to groups, amount of time to spend, the rubric to be
used for evaluation, etc. Your poster should address the results of both Experiments 1 and 2 regarding the effects of
both body width and wing length.” Please consult this ASA rubric, and modify as needed.
Read through the lesson with students. Convey to students that in addition to making their posters visually pleasing,
they need to include answers to the focus questions presented in the lesson. Allow students to work with their partners
or groups to prepare the posters.

In this lesson, you will develop a comprehensive poster summarizing your experiments.

Characteristics of a Good Poster

Your instructor will provide you with specific instructions and a rubric for assessing your poster (taken from “Poster
Judging Rubric” at the “Poster Competition and Project Competition” page of the American Statistical Association,
www.amstat.org/education/posterprojects/pdfs/PosterJudgingRubric.pdf).

Generally speaking, the presentation of a statistical analysis and/or an experiment should clearly state the question or
purpose. The presentation should lead to the conclusion on a path that is easy to follow. The results of the study should
be immediately obvious to the viewer. Any graphs included should be relevant to the question of interest and
appropriate for the type of data collected.

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Exploratory Challenge (45 minutes): Explaining the Experiment and Results

Exploratory Challenge: Explaining the Experiment and Results

Your classwork will involve developing your poster. Your instructor will provide guidance as to groups, amount of time to
spend, the rubric to be used for evaluation, etc. Your poster should address the results of both Experiments 1 and 2
regarding the effects of both body width and wing length.

In addition to the general concerns of colors, fonts to use, etc., in preparation for creating your poster, consider (and
answer) these classwork questions:

What was the objective of the experiment?

How did you collect your data?

What summary values and graphs should you present?

How will you develop and present a summary of the experiment in a way that it is easy to follow and
effortlessly leads the viewer to the conclusion?

How will you explain statistical significance?

Note: There is no specific Exit Ticket or Problem Set for this lesson. The finished poster represents these lesson
components.

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To Be Customized by the Instructor:

Note: The rubric was taken from “Poster Judging Rubric” at the “Poster Competition and Project Competition” page of
the American Statistical Association, www.amstat.org/education/posterprojects/pdfs/PosterJudgingRubric.pdf.

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Lesson 30: Evaluating Reports Based on Data from an

Experiment

Student Outcomes
Students critique and evaluate statements in published reports that involve determining if there is a significant
difference between two treatments in a statistical experiment.

Lesson Notes
In this lesson, students read and comment on examples from the media that involve statistical experiments that
compare two treatments. For this lesson, students should work in small groups (two or three students per group). This
allows students to discuss and evaluate the articles together. Students need to have access to the printed or online
articles. This may be done by one of the following methods:
Print a copy of the article for each student prior to class. Review the article before discussing with students.
If using an online version, screen the links before distributing to students. In a few cases, the instructor is
required to provide some background information in order to download the article.
If there is access to a computer lab, students can read the articles online.
Students may also use their personal electronic devices (laptop computer, smartphone, iPad, or tablet) to read
the articles. Again, preview the article or the link before using this option.
Identifying relevant reports for students to review and evaluate poses challenges; however, the Common Core Standards
explicitly states the importance of evaluating statistical studies by students at this grade level. The reports and examples
in this lesson are identified by a link to a reliable source. These links, however, may change over time. Consider the
source of the article and the general title to identify possible changes in the links.

Classwork
Exercises 1–7 (15–20 minutes)
Before students begin working on the exercises, pose the following question to the class. Scaffolding:
Have students share and discuss ideas with their neighbors:
It may be useful to allow
Frequently, we read reports of studies and experiments, but it’s important to students to draw from
know if we can trust the results. Based on what we’ve learned so far, what resources that are in their first
would be some good questions to keep in mind when evaluating a report on a languages. Providing
statistical study? structured sentence frames
and exemplars of solid
Allow 10–15 minutes for students to read the article “A Randomized Trial of Colchicine for commentaries may be useful as
Acute Pericarditis” in The New England Journal of Medicine (October 2013) and answer students work to create their
Exercises 1–6. (The New England Journal of Medicine website requires some background own comments.
information before the article can be downloaded. Only the teacher should provide this
information.)

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When students have finished answering Exercises 1–6, discuss the answers to the questions. Then, allow two to three
minutes for students to answer Exercise 7.

Exercises 1–7

Pericarditis is an inflammation (irritation and swelling) of the pericardium, the thin sac that surrounds the heart. When
extra fluid builds up between the two layers of the pericardium, the heart’s actions are restricted. An experiment
reported in the article “A Randomized Trial of Colchicine for Acute Pericarditis” in The New England Journal of Medicine
(October 2013) tested the effects of the drug colchicine on acute pericarditis.

Read the abstract of the article, and answer the following questions:

Website: http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1208536

1. How many treatment groups are there?

There are treatment groups.

2. What treatments are being compared?

The two treatment groups are colchicine and a placebo with the standard anti-inflammatory treatment.

3. Is there a placebo group? Explain.

Yes, the second treatment group is a placebo in addition to an aspirin or an ibuprofen.

4. How many subjects are in each treatment group?

There are subjects in each treatment group.

5. Do you think that the number of subjects in each treatment group is enough? Explain.

Yes; subjects should be large enough to allow the researchers to see the variation in treatment effects.

6. What method was used to assign the subjects to the treatment groups? Explain why this is important.

The subjects were randomly assigned to the treatment groups. This is important because the random assignment
evenly disperses the extraneous variables into both treatment groups.

Suppose newspaper reporters brainstormed some headlines for an article on this experiment. These are their suggested
headlines:

A. “New Treatment Helps Pericarditis Patients”

B. “Colchicine Tends to Improve Treatment for Pericarditis”

C. “Pericarditis Patients May Get Help”

7. Which of the headlines above would be best to use for the article? Explain why.

Headline A would be the best because this is a well-designed experiment. Therefore, a cause-and-effect relationship
has been established. Headlines B and C talk about a tendency relationship, not a cause-and-effect relationship.

Lesson 30: Evaluating Reports Based on Data from an Experiment 371

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Exercises 8–10 (25–30 minutes)

In this set of exercises, students critique and evaluate statements in published reports that involve determining if there
MP.3 is a significant difference between two treatments in a statistical experiment. Below is a discussion for each criterion so
that the class can have a discussion on the meaning of each criterion listed for evaluating experiments.
Were the subjects randomly assigned to treatment groups?
Students should look to see if the article explicitly states that the subjects were randomly assigned to each treatment
group. This is important because random assignment negates the effects of extraneous variables that may have an
effect on the response by evenly distributing these variables into both treatment groups. (Refer back to Lesson 23.)
Was there a control group or a comparison group?
A control group is a group that receives either no treatment or a placebo. A comparison group is a
group that receives the “standard treatment.” A comparison group is used when the context of the
experiment requires a treatment (used especially in medical experiments when not giving a treatment
would be unethical). The use of a control group or comparison group provides a baseline for the
response in the experiment. This allows researchers to see how much of the response is due to the
actual variable being tested.
Were the sample sizes reasonably large?
The number of subjects in each treatment group should be large enough so that the variation in the
response from one subject to another is evident. A small size ( < 50) may not show all the variation
that might exist in the subjects’ responses.
Do the results show a cause-and-effect relationship?
If the first three criteria are met, then the results of an experiment can be interpreted as showing a
cause-and-effect relationship.
Allow students 5–10 minutes to read the abstract of the article about exercise intervention with mild cognitive
impairment (MCI) patients and to answer Exercise 8. When students have finished, discuss their answers. Note that
students’ work should contain the underlined explanations in the sample responses.

Exercises 8–10

What you should look for when evaluating an experiment:

Were the subjects randomly assigned to treatment groups?

Was there a control group or a comparison group?

Were the sample sizes reasonably large?

Do the results show a cause-and-effect relationship?

Read the abstracts of the two articles below. Write a few sentences evaluating these articles using the guidelines above.

8. The study “Semantic Memory Functional MRI and Cognitive Function After Exercise Intervention in Mild Cognitive
Impairment” (Journal of Alzheimer’s Disease, August 2013) was performed to see if exercise would increase memory
retrieval in older adults with mild cognitive impairment (associated with early memory loss).

Website: http://iospress.metapress.com/content/xm8t241628h37h7t/

While there was a control group of nonimpaired adults, the sample sizes are too small to demonstrate the variation
in the responses. Also, the subjects were not randomly assigned to treatment groups. Therefore, no cause-and-
effect relationship can be shown with this study. The authors correctly stated, “These findings suggest exercise may
improve … semantic memory retrieval in MCI…”

Lesson 30: Evaluating Reports Based on Data from an Experiment 372

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Allow students 5–10 minutes to read the summary of the article about adolescent scoliosis patients wearing a brace and
to answer Exercise 9. When students have finished, discuss their answers.

9. The article “Effects of Bracing in Adolescents with Idiopathic Scoliosis” (New England Journal of Medicine, October
2013) reports on the role of bracing patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (curvature of the spine) for
prevention of back surgery.

Website: www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1307337

Researchers conducted a study of one hundred sixteen (reasonably large enough) adolescent patients with scoliosis
in which each patient was randomly assigned to either a treatment where the patient wore a brace or a treatment
where the patient’s progress was observed. The treatment where the patients’ progress was observed is a control
group. Therefore, the conclusion that wearing a brace significantly decreased the progression of high-risk curves
toward the need for surgery is accurate. The researchers also examined what the treatment effects were if the
patients were allowed to choose their treatment (which is not an experiment).

Have the class watch the video of the report by Tom Bemis. Allow students three to five minutes to answer Exercise 10.
When students have finished, discuss their answers. Preview this website before showing it to students as there is a
commercial preceding the video. Also, copy and paste the website into a browser to view the video.

10. View the report by Tom Bemis (Market Watch, Wall Street Journal, August 13, 2013) about the type of car driven by
a person and the person’s driving behavior.

Website: http://live.wsj.com/video/bmw-drivers-really-are-jerks-studies-find/29285015-BB1A-4E41-B0C0-
0A41CB990F60.html

Is the title “BMW Drivers Really Are Jerks” an accurate title for these reported studies? Why or why not? If not,
suggest a better title.

The title may imply that because a person drives a BMW, this causes the person to use bad driving habits. Since
these studies are observational studies and not experiments, this is inaccurate. A more appropriate title would be
“BMW Drivers Tend to Have Bad Driving Behaviors.”

Closing (2 minutes)
Ask students to summarize the main ideas of the lesson in writing or with a neighbor. Use this as an opportunity to
informally assess comprehension of the lesson. The Lesson Summary below offers some important ideas that should be
included.

Lesson Summary
A cause-and-effect relationship can only be shown by a well-designed experiment.
Randomly assigning the subjects to treatment groups evens out the effects of extraneous variables to
create comparable treatment groups.
A control group (which may be a placebo group) or a comparison group (a standard treatment) is
sometimes included in an experiment so that you can evaluate the effect of the treatment.
The number of subjects in each treatment group (sample size) should be large enough for the random
assignment to experimental groups to create groups with comparable variability between the subjects.

Exit Ticket (2–3 minutes)

Lesson 30: Evaluating Reports Based on Data from an Experiment 373

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Name Date

Lesson 30: Evaluating Reports Based on Data from an Experiment

Exit Ticket

What are the aspects of a well-designed experiment that show a causal relationship?

Lesson 30: Evaluating Reports Based on Data from an Experiment 374

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Exit Ticket Sample Solutions

What are the aspects of a well-designed experiment that show a causal relationship?

The use of a control group or a comparison group sets a baseline for the treatment effect. The use of random assignment
evenly spreads the effects of extraneous variables into the treatment groups. Thus, any significant difference between
the treatment groups can be attributed to the treatment, and you can conclude that the treatment is the cause of the
observed difference.

Problem Set Sample Solutions

Read the following articles and summaries. Write a few sentences evaluating each one using the guidelines given in the
lesson.

1. The article “Emerging Technology” (Discover Magazine, November 2005) reports a study on the effect of
“infomania” on IQ scores.
Website: discovermagazine.com/2005/nov/emerging-technology

This article discusses two groups of people: one who had to check email and respond to IM while testing and the
other who was not distracted by email or IM. It does not specify that subjects were randomly assigned to the
groups. Also, the sample sizes were not stated. Therefore, based on this article, it would not be reasonable to state
a cause-and-effect relationship.

2. In The New England Journal of Medicine, October 2013, the article “Increased Survival in Pancreatic Cancer with
nab-Paclitaxel Plus Gemcitabine” reports on an experiment to test which treatment, nab-paclitaxel plus gemcitabine
or gemcitabine alone, is the most effective in treating advanced pancreatic cancer.
Website: www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1304369

The article states that pancreatic cancer patients were randomly assigned to the groups. The sample sizes (
and ) were large enough to observe the variation in responses. The standard treatment of gemcitabine alone
was the comparison group. The conclusion, that the treatment group of nab-paclitaxel plus gemcitabine
significantly improved the overall survival rate, is accurate.

3. Doctors conducted a randomized trial of hypothermia in infants with a gestational age of at least weeks who
were admitted to the hospital at or before six hours of age with either severe acidosis or perinatal complications
and resuscitation at birth and who had moderate or severe encephalopathy. The trial “Whole-Body Hypothermia
for Neonates with Hypoxic–Ischemic Encephalopathy” tested two treatments, standard care and whole-body
cooling for hours.

Website: www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMcps050929

The article states that the infants were randomly assigned to usual care (the control group— infants) or whole-
body cooling ( infants). Thus, the sample sizes were large enough to observe the variation in responses. The
conclusion, that whole-body cooling reduces the risk of death or disability in infants with moderate or severe
encephalopathy, is accurate.

Lesson 30: Evaluating Reports Based on Data from an Experiment 375

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Name Date

1. Suppose you wanted to determine whether students who close their eyes are better able to estimate
when 30 seconds have passed than students who do not close their eyes. (You ask students to tell you
when to stop a stopwatch after they think 30 seconds have passed.) You find the first 50 students
arriving at school one day. For those 50, you flip a coin to decide whether or not they will close their eyes
during the test. Then, you compare the amounts by which each group overestimated or underestimated.

a. Did this study use random sampling? Explain your answer by describing what purpose random
sampling serves in such a study.

b. Did this study make use of random assignment? Explain your answer by describing what purpose
random assignment serves in such a study.

c. Would the study described above be an observational study or an experimental study? Explain how
you are deciding.

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 376

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2. A Gallup poll conducted July 10–14, 2013, asked a random sample of U.S. adults: “How much attention
do you pay to the nutritional information that is printed on restaurant menus or posted in restaurants,
including calories and sugar and fat content?” The sample results were that 43% of the respondents said
they pay a “fair amount” or a “great deal” of attention. Suppose there had been 500 people in the study.

The following graph displays the results from 1,000 random samples (each with sample size 500) from a
very large population where 50% of respondents “pay some attention” and 50% “pay little or no
attention.”

Sample Proportion

a. Based on the simulation results above, are the sample data (43% responding “pay some attention”)
consistent with the simulation? In other words, do these results cause you to question whether the
population is 50/50 on this issue? Explain.

Do you believe it is reasonable to generalize the results from this study to all U.S. adults? Explain.

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 377

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Suppose Gallup plans to conduct a new poll of a random sample of 1,000 U.S. adults on an issue where
the population is evenly split between two responses. The following graph displays the results from
2,000 random samples (each with sample size 1,000) from such a population.

Sample Proportion

b. Based on these simulation results, estimate the expected margin of error for the Gallup poll. Explain
how you developed your estimate.

c. Suppose the study used a sample size of 2,000 instead of 1,000. Would you expect the margin of
error to be larger or smaller?

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 378

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3. A randomized experiment compared the reaction time (in milliseconds) for subjects who had been sleep
deprived (group 1) and subjects who had not (group 2).

a. Based on the above output, for which group would it be more reasonable to use a normal curve to
model the reaction time distribution? Justify your choice.

b. The difference in means is 14.38 9.50 = 4.88. One of the researchers claims that the reaction
time if you are sleep deprived is 5 ms greater than the reaction time if you are not sleep deprived.
Explain one reason why this claim is potentially misleading.

c. Describe how to carry out a simulation analysis to determine whether the mean reaction time for
group 1 is significantly larger than the mean reaction time for group 2.

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 379

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d. The graph below displays the results of 100 repetitions of a simulation to investigate the difference
in sample means when there is no real difference in the treatment means. Use this graph to
determine whether the observed mean reaction time for group 1 is significantly larger than the
observed mean reaction time for group 2. Explain your reasoning.

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 380

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A Progression Toward Mastery

STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3 STEP 4
Assessment Missing or Missing or A correct answer A correct answer
Task Item incorrect answer incorrect answer with some supported by
and little evidence but evidence of evidence of substantial
of reasoning or some reasoning or reasoning or evidence of solid
application of application of application of reasoning or
mathematics to mathematics to mathematics to application of
solve the problem. solve the problem. solve the problem. mathematics to
OR solve the problem.
An incorrect
answer with
substantial
evidence of solid
reasoning or
application of
mathematics to
solve the problem.
1 a Student provides an Student confuses Student indicates that Student indicates that
answer that is not random sampling with the study did not use the study did not use
germane to the design other random forms random sampling, but random sampling and
S-IC.B.3 of the study. such as random the description of the describes the purpose
assignment. purpose of random as obtaining a
sampling is inadequate representative sample.
(e.g., to draw cause-
and-effect conclusions).

b Student provides an Student confuses Student indicates that Student indicates that
answer that is not random assignment the study did use the study did use
germane to the design with other random random assignment, random assignment and
S-IC.B.3 of the study. methods such as but the description of describes the purpose
random sampling. the purpose is in terms of balancing
inadequate (e.g., only out confounding
to draw cause-and- variables.
effect conclusions but
with no explanation
why that works).

c Student is not Student identifies the Student identifies the Student identifies the
consistent with a choice study as observational, study as experimental, study as experimental
S-IC.B.3 between the two types and/or the justification but the justification is and justifies based on
of studies. contradicts student’s inadequate (e.g., “They the imposition of the
choice. controlled variables”). eyes being open or
closed and/or use in
random assignment.

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 381

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2 a Student makes no use Student answers no Student attempts to Student uses the
of the simulated because the center of integrate information observed statistic (0.43)
distribution. the simulated from the graph and the and the simulated
S-IC.A.2 distribution is close to observed statistic, but distribution to address
0.50. the response is the question of whether
inconsistent (e.g., “0.43 the population is 50/50
is on the graph, so (e.g., “Yes, because
I believe the population 0.43 is far in the tail of
is 50/50”), or the this distribution”).
response is too
definitive (e.g., “We
have proven that the
population cannot be
50/50”).

b Student does not Student says no based Student attempts to use Student appeals to the
include statistical on the sample size the random sampling as use of a random sample
justification (e.g., “I was being too small or that justification but is of U.S. adults to argue
S-IC.A.1 not surveyed,” or only adults were concerned by the 43% that it would be
anecdotal evidence surveyed or says the being too different from appropriate to
about who pays task of representing the 50%. generalize the results to
attention). entire population is too the larger population of
difficult. U.S. adults.

c Student does not Student reports a Student eyeballs that Student calculates
calculate a margin of margin of error, but it is most of the sample 2× = 0.032 as the
error but discusses not clear how that value proportions are within margin of error.
S-IC.B.4 possible sampling or is obtained, or uses an 0.3 of the mean.
nonsampling errors. incorrect method (e.g., OR
the number 2) or claims Student uses 1 as
not enough information the margin of error or
is provided. uses = 0.022 from
the first graph.

d Student does not make Student expects the Student expects the Student expects the
a claim about the margin of error to not margin of error to be margin of error to be
change in the margin of change or to increase smaller with the larger smaller with the larger
S-IC.B.4 error. with the larger sample sample size, but sample size.
size. student’s explanation
reveals an inconsistency
in logic.

3 a Student does not Student picks group 2 Student picks group 1 Student picks group 2
differentiate between based on the mean and gives a statistical based on the
the two distributions. being closer to the argument such as symmetric, bell-shaped
S-ID.A.4 middle of the graph. mean 3 is too nature of the
close to zero for distribution.
group 2.

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 382

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b Student does not Student focuses on Student references the Student recognizes that
describe a misleading potential sampling or skewed nature of group the statement does not
aspect to the claim. nonsampling errors in 1 and indicates that reflect that these means
S-IC.B.6 the data collection. means would not be an are estimates. The
appropriate statement also mixes
comparison. mean and individual
OR reaction times.
Student focuses on the
discrepancy between
4.88 and 5.

c Student does not Student focuses on Student shows an Student includes

describe a simulation random sampling rather understanding of how random reassignment
approach. than random to use the simulation to of the reaction times to
S-IC.B.5 assignment, and it is not evaluate 4.88, but two groups,
clear on how a decision details of the simulation recomputing of the
of significance will be are not clear. difference in sample
made. means, and use of the
simulated distribution
to judge how unlikely a
result of 4.88 or more
extreme is to occur.
(How to use the
simulation results could
be described in
part (d).)

d Student makes no use Student answers no Student attempts to Student uses the
of the simulated because the center of integrate information observed statistic (4.88)
distribution. the simulated from the graph and the and the simulated
S-IC.B.5 distribution is close to observed statistic, but distribution to address
0. the response is the question of
inconsistent (e.g., “4.88 significance (e.g., “Yes,
is not on the graph, so because 4.88 is not
there is not a significant listed on the graph”).
difference”).

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 383

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Name Date

1. Suppose you wanted to determine whether students who close their eyes are better able to estimate
when 30 seconds have passed than students who do not close their eyes. (You ask students to tell you
when to stop a stopwatch after they think 30 seconds have passed.) You find the first 50 students
arriving at school one day. For those 50, you flip a coin to decide whether or not they will close their eyes
during the test. Then, you compare the amounts by which each group overestimated or underestimated.

a. Did this study make use of random sampling? Explain your answer by describing what purpose
random sampling serves in such a study.

No. This study used a convenience sample of the first 50 students arriving at school.
A random sample would give us a better representative sample by giving all students an
equal chance to be selected for the sample rather than only the early risers.

b. Did this study make use of random assignment? Explain your answer by describing what purpose
random assignment serves in such a study.

Yes. A coin was flipped to decide in which treatment condition each student would be
placed. The goal is to create two groups that are “equal” with respect to all potential
confounding variables. This will allow us to potentially draw cause-and-effect
conclusions between the two treatments (i.e., eyes open or closed).

c. Would the study described above be an observational study or an experimental study? Explain how
you are deciding.

This is an experiment because the explanatory variable (i.e., eyes open or closed) was
randomly imposed by the researcher. An observational study would not control which
method students use but would rather let the students choose for themselves (and
would not even be told of different possible strategies).

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 384

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2. A Gallup poll conducted July 10–14, 2013, asked a random sample of U.S. adults: “How much attention
do you pay to the nutritional information that is printed on restaurant menus or posted in restaurants,
including calories and sugar and fat content?” The sample results were that 43% of the respondents said
they pay a “fair amount” or a “great deal” of attention. Suppose there had been 500 people in the study.

The following graph displays the results from 1,000 random samples (each with sample size 500) from a
very large population where 50% of the respondents “pay some attention” and 50% “pay little or no
attention.”

Sample Proportion

a. Based on the simulation results above, are the sample data (43% responding “pay some attention”)
consistent with the simulation? In other words, do these results cause you to question whether the
population is 50/50 on this issue? Explain.

We see very few of the simulated sample proportions around 0.43. It falls in the tail of
the distribution. So, this unusual outcome would lead us to question whether the actual
sample proportion came from a population that was 50/50 on the issue. It would be
surprising to get a sample proportion as extreme as 0.43 if the population proportion
was indeed 0.50.

b. Do you believe it is reasonable to generalize the results from this study to all U.S. adults? Explain.

The Gallup poll claims to have collected a random sample, so I would feel comfortable
generalizing these results to U.S. adults.

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 385

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Suppose Gallup plans to conduct a new poll of a random sample of 1,000 U.S. adults on an issue where
the population is evenly split between two responses. The following graph displays the results from
2,000 random samples (each with sample size of 1,000) from such a population.

Sample Proportion

c. Based on these simulation results, estimate the expected margin of error for the Gallup poll. Explain
how you developed your estimate.

The standard deviation of the simulated sample proportions is approximately 0.016.

So, the approximate margin of error is two standard deviations or about 0.032.

d. Suppose the study used a sample size of 2,000 instead of 1,000. Would you expect the margin of
error to be larger or smaller?

A larger sample size should lead to a smaller margin of error.

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 386

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3. A randomized experiment compared the reaction time (in milliseconds) for subjects who had been sleep
deprived (group 1) and subjects who had not (group 2).

a. Based on the above output, for which group would it be more reasonable to use a normal curve to
model the reaction time distribution? Justify your choice.

Group 2 . The observations for group 2 appear to be more symmetric and mound
shaped. Group 1 does not appear to be symmetric.

b. The difference in means is 14.38 9.50 = 4.88. One of the researchers claims that the reaction
time if you are sleep deprived is 5 ms greater than the reaction time if you are not sleep deprived.
Explain one reason why this claim is potentially misleading.

The researcher is generalizing from the observed difference in means. It’s possible that
the actual difference in means is a bit smaller than 5. The researcher is also comparing
reaction times rather than reflecting the conclusion as a comparison of means.

c. Describe how to carry out a simulation analysis to determine whether the mean reaction time for
group 1 is significantly larger than the mean reaction time for group 2.

You could put all of the reaction times on index cards and then shuffle the cards and
randomly deal them to two groups, one with 21 cards and one with 26 cards. You
could also put the response values in a list and then flip a coin to put “group 1” or
“group 2” by each value until you fill one of the groups.

Then, calculate the difference in the mean reaction time of the two groups.

Repeat this many times, and see how often the difference is as large as or larger than
4.88.

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 387

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d. The graph below displays the results of 100 repetitions of a simulation to investigate the difference
in sample means when there is no real difference in the treatment means. Use this graph to
determine whether the observed mean reaction time for group 1 is significantly larger than the
observed mean reaction time for group 2. Explain your reasoning.

We see that 4.88 is in the tail of the distribution. We had no simulated differences in
means that were as large as 4.88. This gives us reason to believe that our observed
difference came from a process where there was a genuine difference between the
treatments. Therefore, we have strong evidence that the average reaction time for
those who are sleep deprived is larger than for those who are not sleep deprived (for
subjects similar to those in this study).

Module 4: Inferences and Conclusions from Data 388

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