ICS 810 MODELLING AND SIMULATION NOTES

Mainly based on Stewart Robinson (2004). Simulation: The Practice of Model

Development and Use

Week3: Simulation Software and Examples

(a)Historical timeline for discrete-event simulation
software [Nance, 1993-History of simulation software]

(b) Some software items

(c) Some familiar mathematical models

(d) A simple simulation example

Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011

Historical timeline for discrete-event simulation software

Period: 1950 - 1960

First computer simulations: written in
FORTRAN or other programming
languages

Interests in simulation - just emerging

Main activity: searching for models of

representation and simulation.
Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011
Historical timeline for discrete-event simulation software

Period: 1961-1965
Advent: first specialist simulation languages such as
SIMULA [Dahl and Nygaard 1966] emerged. This period is
regarded as the advent since major simulation languages appeared or their forerunners. The
simulations were lines of computer code; to the non-expert a black box into which data were
input and results were output following a simulation run.

Associated languages: GPSS( General Purpose System

Simulator), SIMULA I, SIMSCRIPT, GEMS(general
electric manufacturing simulator), CSL (control and
simulation languages), GASP(general activity simulation
program), DYNAMO (DYNAmic MOdeling), SIMPLE.

Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011

Historical timeline for discrete-event simulation software

Period: 1966-1970
Formative period: Advancements in hardware
and software forced some simulation languages
to undergo major revisions. For example GPSS
was revised.

Associated simulation languages: GPSS II and

GPSS III, SIMULA 67, SIMSCRIPT II, ECSL,
GASP II, OPS-4, BOSS (Burroghs Operational
Systems Simulator), Q-GERT.
Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011
Historical timeline for discrete-event simulation software
Period: 1971- 1978
Expansion period: Simulation languages
such as GPSS, SIMSCRIPT II and GASP
got major extensions. The program
generation concept became a focus of
interest.
Associated languages: GPSS/NORDEN,
NGPSS, GPSS V6000 (for IBM), GPDS,
GPSS 1100, GPSS/H, GASP IV,
GASP_PL/1.
Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011
Historical timeline for discrete-event simulation software

Period: 1978 - 1985

Period of consolidation and regeneration:
The capabilities of languages were extended
and simulations were enabled on several
computer platforms.
Associated languages: SLAM II, SIMAN,
GPSS/PC, CACI, SIMPAS (Pascal
package), PASSIM, INTERACTIVE,
INSIGHT, MODSIM.
Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011
Visual Interactive Simulation (VIS) as a feature
of modern simulation software
VIS: the development and application of simulations
which produce a dynamic display of the system model,
and allow the user to interact with the running
simulation (Robert M. O'Keefe, 1987 ).
Benefits of VIS
Leads to greater understanding of the model. It is visually
possible to track events as they occur in the simulation and to identify
potential shortcomings in the operations system.
Easier model verification and validation. The errors in code can be
identified by unexpected events that occur while the model runs. Some specific
conditions can be used to test the correctness of the model.
Enables interactive experimentation. The concepts that are new can
be tested on the model, resulting into improved understanding of the model and the
operations system. This makes it easy to identify potential improvements.

Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011

Visual Interactive Simulation (VIS) as a feature
of modern simulation software

Benefits of VIS
Improved understanding of the results. The effects of specific events can be
seen during model runs. It is possible to re-run the simulation so that some understanding on why
some specific results occur.

Improved communication of the model and its findings to all

parties. Non-simulation experts and a wider group can participate in a simulation
study.

Provides the potential for using simulation in group problem

solving. It is possible to validate and experiment within a group setting with where
the input comes from a range of interested parties. This facilitates greater creativity
and consensus in problem solving.
Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011
Some Simulation Software

Modeling and simulation can be

performed using three categories of
software:-

1.Spreadsheets
2.Programming languages
3.Dedicated software packages
Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011
Some Simulation Software
Spreadsheets
➔eg. Excel have some limited capabilities for simulation
modeling
➔The time-slice model: develop using the basic
capabilities of a spreadsheet.
➔Random numbers: generate using the ‘‘RAND’’
function
➔Samples: draw from empirical distributions using the

‘‘IF’’ function
➔Use the lookup function (‘‘VLOOKUP’’ or
‘‘HLOOKUP’’).
Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011
Some Simulation Software

Spreadsheets
Sampling from statistical distributions: are
provided by Excel, such as the normal and
gamma distributions.
➔Due to the limitations: use some programming

capabilities within the spreadsheet, such as the

macros or Visual Basic for Applications in Excel
➔Developing a model animation: challenging

Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011

Some Simulation Software
Programming languages
General purpose programming languages:
eg. Visual Basic, C++, Ruby, Python, Perl and Java can
be used to develop modeling and simulation software.

Advantage: the modeler has a lot of flexibility.

Challenge: can be time consuming as the modeler may

develop the simulation capabilities from scratch.

Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011

Some Simulation Software

Dedicated simulation software packages

Two broad classes of specialist simulation
packages are as follows [Law and Kelton
(2000)]: General purpose simulation packages
and application oriented packages.

General purpose simulation packages: can

develop a wide range of applications, but they
may have some special features for certain
applications. Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011
Some Simulation Software
Dedicated simulation software packages
Application orientated simulation packages: focused on specific
applications, for eg., medical, production scheduling or call centers.
They tend to be easier to use, mostly only requiring the entry of relevant data, but they
are however, much narrower in the range of application areas.
Many are visual interactive modeling systems (VIMS) [Pidd,
1998].
VIMS enable a simulation to be built as well as run in a visual and interactive
manner.
The software provides a predefined set of simulation objects. The modeler
selects the required objects and defines the logic of the model through a series
of menus. The visual display is also developed through a set of menus. As a
result, the modeler requires little in the way of programming skills.
Note that the terms VIS and VIMS are different. VIS refers to the nature of
the model while VIMS refers to how it is developed. VIS can be developed
using VIMS, or be developed using a programming language or in a
spreadsheet. Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011
Some Simulation Software
Dedicated simulation software packages
Some Examples of Specialist Simulation Software

Arena (from Rockwell Software); AutoMod (Brooks-PRI Automation); Awe Sim

(Frontstep, Inc.); Enterprise Dynamics (Incontrol Enterprise Dynamics); Extend
(Imagine That, Inc.); Flexsim (Flexsim Software Products, Inc.); GPSS/H (Wolverine
Software Corporation); Micro Saint (Micro Analysis and Design);
ProModel/MedModel/ ServiceModel (ProModel Corporation); Quest (DELMIA
Corporation); ShowFlow(Webb Systems Limited); SIGMA (Custom Simulation);
Simprocess (CACI Products Company)
Simul8 (Visual8 Corporation); SLX (Wolverine Software Corporation); Visual
Simulation Environment (Orca Computer, Inc.); Witness (Lanner Group, Inc.). See
others from our very first tables from the survey.

Note that the INFORMS (Institute for Operations Research and the Management
Sciences) College on Computer Simulation provides a list of simulation software and
links to the associated vendors through their web site (www: INFORMS-Computer
Simulation). This is the source of our initial survey data.
Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011
Some Simulation Software
Comparing spreadsheets, programming languages and
dedicated simulation software

Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011

Some Simulation Software

Selection of Simulation Software

This can be viewed as a task that is performed in a series of steps.

The main steps include:

1)Establishing the modeling requirements
2)Surveying and short-listing the software
3)Establishing the evaluation criteria
4)Evaluating the software in relation to the criteria;
5)Selecting the software.
This process is likely to be fairly linear with some possible
iteration, between steps 3 to 5.

Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011

Some Simulation Software

Selection of Simulation Software

This can be viewed as a task that is performed in a series of steps.

The main steps include:

1)Establishing the modeling requirements
2)Surveying and short-listing the software
3)Establishing the evaluation criteria
4)Evaluating the software in relation to the criteria;
5)Selecting the software.
This process is likely to be fairly linear with some possible
iteration, between steps 3 to 5.

Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011

Some Simulation Software
Selection of Simulation Software
Step 1: Establish the modeling requirements
➔Identify the nature of the systems to be modeled;

➔Determining the number of software users and uses;

➔Determining the nature of the domain whether general or

specific;
➔ Determining the modeling approach whether the software

is for fast track modeling or complex/detailed modeling;

➔Determining any constraints that exist within the

organization such as the availability of finance, the level of

software and modeling skills, and the hardware and
software policy of the organization.
Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011
Some Simulation Software

Selection of Simulation Software

Step 2: Survey and shortlist the software

Create a short list of software packages that



meet the organization’s requirements.

This list should have five or less packages for

consideration for a more detailed evaluation.

Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011

Some Simulation Software

Selection of Simulation Software

Step 3: Establish evaluation criteria
Criteria:
Hardware/software requirements: Hardware platform required;
Operating system required; Software protection (hardware security device?);
Availability of network licenses; Features for use on the world wide web.

Model coding and testing: Ease of model development; Can a model be

built and run in small steps?; Availability of debugging aids (e.g. syntax
checking, consistency checking, trace); Maximum model size; Maximum
dimensions of objects (e.g. arrays); Features for documenting a model;
Availability of help facility; Availability of software wizard.

Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011

Some Simulation Software

Selection of Simulation Software

Step 3: Establish evaluation criteria
Criteria:
Visual features: Is the display concurrent with the run, or is it a playback
feature?; Speed with which display can be developed; Can user icons be
drawn?; Availability of icon libraries; Ability to pan and zoom; Ability to
locate objects on the display; Smoothness of animation; Availability of 3D
animation.

Input data and analysis features: Distribution fitting; Ability to sample from
empirical distributions; Which statistical distributions are available?; Ability to
import data from other software.

Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011

Some Simulation Software
Selection of Simulation Software
Step 3: Establish evaluation criteria
Criteria
Reporting and output analysis features: Availability of standard reports
for model objects; Availability of graphical reporting; Ability to develop customized
reports; Ability to export results to other software; Statistical analysis of results.

Experimentation: Probable run-speed; Run control (step, animated, batch);

Interactive capability; Number of random number streams available; Control of
random number streams; Ability to perform multiple replications; Facilities for
organizing batches of runs- Provision of advice on warm-up, run-length and multiple
replications; Availability of an optimizer; Ability to distribute runs across networked
computers.
Support: Availability of a help desk; Availability of consultancy support; Type of
training given; Frequency of software upgrades; What is in the next upgrade? Foreign
language versions and support; Quality of documentation.

Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011

Some Simulation Software
Selection of Simulation Software
Step 3: Establish evaluation criteria
Criteria
Vendor Background: Size of vendor’s organization; How long has the
package been available?; Have similar applications been modeled with the
package?; the number of users (in industry/private sector); Geographic usage
of the package; Availability of literature on the package and package use;

Cost: Purchase price; Maintenance fee; Cost of support; Cost of training;

Time to learn the software; Availability of lower cost run-only licence.

Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011

Some Simulation Software

Selection of Simulation Software

Step 4: Evaluate the software in relation to the criteria
Evaluate each short-listed package according to see how they
meet the selection criteria. Proceed as follows:
Discussion with the software vendor. Get information from
technical staff rather than sales staff. Be skeptical of the claims
of software vendors, since they are trying to sell you their
software.
Software demonstrations. Let the vendor demonstrate the capabilities of the software, but
be wary of demonstrations that only solve a test problem since they may show the cleverness of the
software, but not necessarily show how well the software suits the intended application.
Demonstration models. Let the software vendor develop a demonstration model of a
simplified version of the intended application. If possible, get them to develop the model in front of you.

Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011

Some Simulation Software

Selection of Simulation Software

Step 4: Evaluate the software in relation to the criteria
Evaluate each short-listed package according to see how they
meet the selection criteria. Proceed as follows:-
Discussion with the users of the software. Visit and speak with other users of the
software and where possible try to locate them yourself, rather than rely upon the vendor to nominate a
reference site.
Obtaining a free evaluation copy of the software. Free evaluation copies of
the software is a useful idea if there is sufficient time to learn and use the package during the evaluation.
Software documentation. Get the copies of the documentation.

Literature. Obtain some information from the software reviews.

Expert opinion. Obtain the views of independent simulation experts, but bear in mind that they
may be subject to some biases. Also find some objective measures to evaluate the criteria.
Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011
Some Simulation Software

Selection of Simulation Software

Step 5: Software selection.
Devise some means of obtaining an overall score. It is useful to
weigh the criteria according to their importance. An overall
score could then be calculated for each package as follows:

Si = ΣWjEji where: Si overall score for package i; Wj importance

weight for criterion j; Eji evaluated score for criterion j for
package i.

Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011

Some Simulation Software
Selection of Simulation Software
Step 5: Software selection – table may be used
Package Criteria Weight Score Total Score

Simula8 HD/sofware requirements 10 7 70

Coding & testing 10 9 90
Visualization 10 5 50
Input/data analysis 10 6 60
Reporting/output analysis 10 8 80
Experiments 10 8 80
Support 10 8 80
Vendor 10 7 70
Costs 10 5 50
TOTALS Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011 630
SOME FAMILIAR MODELS
These are some mathematical equations that are familiar or are commonly used to
describe physical phenomena - (source: http://www.thefutureschannel.com/algebra/expressions_equations.php).

The Drop
Let a roller coaster ride begin by climbing to a
height of 50 meters, and then fall rapidly to a
height of 10 meters. Ignoting the effects of
friction, then as it falls its velocity will be
related to its height above the ground by this
equation:
50 - h = v²/19.6

Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011

SOME FAMILIAR MODELS
These are some mathematical equations that are familiar or are commonly used to
describe physical phenomena - (source: http://www.thefutureschannel.com/algebra/expressions_equations.php).

Elliptical Orbit
If the Space Shuttle were to make a maintenance trip out to
a satellite in geo-synchronous orbit, the Shuttle would need
to enter into an elliptical orbit around the earth. That
trajectory could be described by this equation:

Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011

SOME FAMILIAR MODELS
These are some mathematical equations that are familiar or are commonly used to
describe physical phenomena - (source: http://www.thefutureschannel.com/algebra/expressions_equations.php).
Force, mass, acceleration
F = ma, where F = force, m = mass, a = acceleration

Batting Average
A cricket batter goes into a game with a seasonal batting
average of S after a total of T times at bat, and gets K hits
in that game for N times at bat, his new batting average is
determined by this expression:

Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011

SOME FAMILIAR MODELS
These are some mathematical equations that are familiar or are commonly used to
describe physical phenomena - (source: http://www.thefutureschannel.com/algebra/expressions_equations.php).

Weight on a String
Consider the situation of a beam supporting a weight in the
center. Variables include: - the dimensions of the beam:
length (L), breadth (B), and thickness (t); - the amount of
weight supported (W) (also called the "load") ; - the amount
by which the beam bends (y) (called "deformation")

Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011

SOME FAMILIAR MODELS
These are some mathematical equations that are familiar or are commonly used to
describe physical phenomena - (source: http://www.thefutureschannel.com/algebra/expressions_equations.php).

Classic Equations of Motion

s = the distance between initial and final positions (displacement)
(sometimes denoted R or x); u = the initial velocity (speed in a given
direction); v = the final velocity; a = the constant acceleration
t = the time taken to move from the initial state to the final state

Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011

SOME FAMILIAR MODELS
These are some mathematical equations that are familiar or are commonly used to
describe physical phenomena - ( Source: http://www.arachnoid.com/lutusp/populati.html)).

Population equations
Basic equation : rt = log(N/N0), Where:
N0 (initial population) = The population at time t = 0.
N (future population) = The population at time t.
r (rate) = The rate of population change as a function of t (a 1% increase is expressed
as 0.01). This variable is called the Malthusian Parameter. In population studies,
r is usually taken to mean births minus deaths.
t (time) = The amount of time required to produce a growth in population proportional
to N/N0.

Future population is : N = N0e(rt)

Time it takes to attain some level: t = (log(N/N0))/r
Rate of population growth/decrease: r = (log(N/N0))/t
Present population: N0 = Ne(-rt)
Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011
SOME FAMILIAR MODELS
These are some mathematical equations that are familiar or are commonly used to
describe physical phenomena - (source: http://www.thefutureschannel.com/algebra/expressions_equations.php).

Some electrical equations

Ohm's law
The current through a conductor between two points is
directly proportional to the potential difference across
the two points, and inversely proportional to the
resistance between them.

I = V/R

Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011

SOME FAMILIAR MODELS
These are some mathematical equations that are familiar or are commonly used to
describe physical phenomena - (source: http://www.thefutureschannel.com/algebra/expressions_equations.php).

Some fluid equations

Boyle's law
Where P is pressure and V is
volume

Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011

DEMONSTRATIONS - SIMULATIONS
The pendulum Simulation
This simulation shows a simple pendulum operating under gravity. For
small oscillations the pendulum is linear, but it is non-linear for larger
oscillations.

The purpose of simulation is to raise the understanding of the pendulum.

Typical questions are:
1)What is the relationship between angular acceleration and angle?
2)How do mass, length, or gravity affect the relationship between angular
acceleration and angle?
3)For small oscillations, how do length or gravity affect the period or
frequency of the oscillation?

Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011

DEMONSTRATIONS - SIMULATIONS
Modeling
The pendulum is modeled as a point mass at the end
of a massless rod.

Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011

DEMONSTRATIONS - SIMULATIONS
Modeling
The pendulum is modeled as a point mass at the end
of a massless rod.
Pendulum variables
We define the following variables:
θ = angle of pendulum (0=vertical)
R = length of rod
T = tension in rod
m = mass of pendulum
g = gravitational constant

Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011

DEMONSTRATIONS - SIMULATIONS
Modeling
Equations of motion using the rotational analog of
Newton's second law for motion (F = ma) about a fixed
axis, which is τ = I α where
τ = net torque
I = rotational inertia
α = θ'' = angular acceleration
The rotational inertia about the pivot is I = mR2 . Torque is
the vector cross product of the position vector and the
force. Torque due to gravity is τ = −R m g sin θ.
Hence −R m g sin θ = mR2 α which gives:

θ'' = − (g/R)sin θ
Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011
DEMONSTRATIONS - SIMULATIONS
Sample Implementation
http://phet.colorado.edu/sims/pendulum-lab/pendulum-lab_en.html

Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011

End of Week 3 Exercises
1)Discuss how simulation software has evolved.
2)What is VIS and what are its advantages?
3)How does VIMS differ from VIS ?
4)Give some examples of simulation software.
5)Compare different categories of simulation
software.
6)Describe how you would help an organization get
some simulation software.
7)Describe some specific dedicated simulation
software.
8)Select a case and describe some aspects of its
simulation.
Elisha Opiyo, SCI, UON, May-August 2011