Small-Scale LNG For Expanding Natural Gas Access in India: Centre For Energy Finance
Small-Scale LNG For Expanding Natural Gas Access in India: Centre For Energy Finance
Small-Scale LNG For Expanding Natural Gas Access in India: Centre For Energy Finance
Centre for
Energy Finance
Image: Shutterstock
Small-Scale LNG for Expanding Natural Gas Access in India
Centre for
Energy Finance
Issue Brief
April 2021
ceew.in
Small-Scale LNG for Expanding Natural Gas Access in India
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Suggested citation: Elango, Sabarish, and Hemant Mallya. 2021. Small-Scale LNG for Expanding Natural Gas Access in India.
New Delhi: Council on Energy, Environment and Water.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this study are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and
policies of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water.
Peer reviewers: Gautham Babu Dasari, India Energy Advocacy and Regulations Advisor, Shell India; Swati D’Souza,
Research Lead – Climate Change, National Foundation for India; Karthik Ganesan, Fellow, and Deepak
Yadav, Programme Associate, Council on Energy, Environment and Water.
Publication team: Alina Sen (CEEW), The Clean Copy, Twig Designs, and Friends Digital.
Acknowledgments: First and foremost, our thanks go to Mr Gautham Babu Dasari, India Energy Advocacy and Regulations
Advisor at Shell India, for extending his expertise on the policy aspects and framing recommendations
for different stakeholders. We wish to thank Swati D’Souza, Research Lead, Climate Change at National
Foundation for India, for her thorough review of the brief and relevant suggestions.
We wish to acknowledge our intern Aishwarya Sharma, for her research on gas transmission access
issues; this facilitated the issue brief’s conceptualisation. We appreciate the contributions made by Nitin
Maurya, in the initial scoping of the subject and contacting relevant stakeholders for information and
clarifications on the calculations. We are thankful to Tirtha Biswas for his critical inputs in formulating the
analysis, as they helped improve the accuracy of the data.
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Small-Scale LNG for Expanding Natural Gas Access in India
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Small-Scale LNG for Expanding Natural Gas Access in India
Small-Scale LNG for Expanding Natural Gas Access in India
The authors
“Leveraging the scalability, flexibility, and “Scaling up ssLNG will be essential to fill the
movability of of the small-scale Liquefied access gap for India to reach the 15 per cent
natural gas (ssLNG) infrastructure will be vital natural gas total primary energy share target.”
for providing competition for lower delivered
price in India’s natural gas markets.”
Small-Scale LNG for Expanding Natural Gas Access in India
Contents
Executive summary i
1. Introduction 5
3.1 Methodology 14
3.2 Baseline delivered prices and sensitivities 18
3.3 Different potential applications of ssLNG 22
4. Recommendations 24
References 26
Small-Scale LNG for Expanding Natural Gas Access in India
Tables
Figures
Figure ES1 Limited coverage of natural gas pipeline network in India i
Figure ES2 The delivered price of ssLNG compares favourably with several other fuels iii
Figure ES3 VAT, loading charges, and transport costs contribute significantly to the delivered price iii
of ssLNG
Figure ES4 VAT has the highest impact among the considered sensitivity variables iv
Figure 1 Small-scale LNG systems use road, rail, or waterways instead of transmission pipelines 7
Figure 2 Major components of the satellite plant 8
Figure 3 Delivered price formulae for the four configurations 17
Figure 4 Build-up of the delivered price for the average case 19
Figure 6 The delivered price of regasified LNG compares favourably with several incumbent fuels 22
Small-Scale LNG for Expanding Natural Gas Access in India
Acronyms
HP high pressure
LP low pressure
tkm tonne-km
Image: Shutterstock
Small-Scale LNG for Expanding Natural Gas Access in India i
Executive summary
Natural gas has played an important role in However, access to pipelines is limited in several
mitigating emissions from several hard-to-abate southern and eastern states. Even the planned
sectors to address climate change in major global 15,000-kilometre (approximate) addition to the
economies. However, natural gas has yet to contribute transmission network will not reach several potential
significantly to the primary energy supply in India, gas consumers (Figure ES1). Transmission pipelines
with only a 5.7 per cent share (IEA 2018). Distribution are expensive to construct and often require
of natural gas in India relies primarily on a significant funding from the government to make
17,000-kilometre network of pipelines for transmission them viable. Lengthy commissioning times and low
from liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals and capacity utilisation in the initial years of operation
domestic production locations to consumers across (as demand builds), experienced historically, are
different sectors. additional profitability stressors.
Small consumers of natural gas rely on city gas managed ssLNG system, with a local micro-grid
distribution (CGD) companies to deliver natural gas network for gas delivery. Third-party companies could
from transmission pipelines. CGDs have infrastructure engage in volume aggregation of small consumers’
exclusivity in the areas allocated to them. Depending demand and provide doorstep delivery of LNG from
on the CGD pipeline network’s reach, consumers may terminal to consumer site, providing natural gas
not have access if they are located outside the CGD access to the small consumers.
network’s range. Also, since the CGDs are allocated
entire districts for gas distribution development, it Supply chain configurations for
takes much longer for low-density areas to receive a ssLNG
connection. The gas price charged by CGDs is often
Small-scale LNG can be delivered to consumers in
uncompetitive with incumbent fuels, considering
four configurations —by the LNG importing terminal,
the investments needed to be made by consumers to
the consumer’s own fleet of vehicles, a third-party
switch over to gas. Such issues have prevented the
logistics service provider, or a third-party aggregator.
natural gas market from growing as anticipated.
We evaluated the cost of moving ssLNG from the
terminal to the consumer location and subsequently
Opportunities for ssLNG regasifying it for the second configuration. For the
Small-scale LNG (ssLNG) systems transport LNG in other configurations, there are increased efficiencies
cryogenic containers and regasify the LNG at the resulting from servicing multiple consumers. The
consumer site. Delivering natural gas as ssLNG could marketing margins for these configurations are not
be advantageous for those consumers available in the public domain. Hence, the cost
of ssLNG is difficult to quantify. For this study, we
I. who are yet to be connected by gas pipelines,
calculated the prices for gas delivered through ssLNG
II. whose location lies outside of any proposed systems for a 0.1 million metric standard cubic metres
coverage area of gas transmission or CGD pipelines, per day (mmscmd) regasification capacity over 20
years at different LNG import prices, for delivery
III. or who cannot procure CGD gas at economical distances from 200 to 1,000 km.
prices.
Figure ES2 The delivered price of ssLNG compares favourably with several other fuels
30
26.84
25
22.56
21.83
Delivered price (USD/mmBtu)
20 21.23
15.46
15
11.98 11.74
10 9.10 11.40
10.11
8.66
7.98
3.09 3.09
0
ssLNG Coal Petcoke Furnace oil PNG LPG Diesel
The break-up of price for one-way distance of 200 contributors are the truck-loading charges levied by
kilometres is shown in Figure ES3. The break-up the terminal, the value-added tax (VAT) applied on gas
suggests that, apart from the LNG import price, major in the state of sale, and the cost of transporting LNG.
Figure ES3 VAT, loading charges, abd transport costs contribute significantly to the delivered price of ssLNG
12
0.45 11.11
0.72
1.26
10
0.14 0.15
0.80
Price (USD/mmBtu)
8 7.39 0.20
0
LNG Import Truck GST on Interstate State sales Transport Regasification Delivered
import duty + loading loading tax VAT cost cost cost
price surcharge charge charge
We conducted a sensitivity analysis to understand the flexibility, and movability of ssLNG infrastructure
impact of varying discount rates, the ssLNG system could be very beneficial for improving gas access.
lifetime, terminal loading charges, and VAT (results in
Figure ES4). The analysis shows that changes in the Challenges for ssLNG
discount rate on the capital expenditure (CAPEX) of
There are some challenges associated with ssLNG
setting up an ssLNG system do not significantly impact
systems, such as the possibility of transport
the delivered price of ssLNG. The delivered price
disruptions (caused by inclement weather, accidents,
of natural gas through ssLNG increases for shorter
etc.) and the limited LNG volume that can be supplied.
project lifetimes - those setting up a temporary ssLNG
Costs of retrofitting or re-engineering equipment
system must pay a marginally higher delivered price.
for consumers to use gas, and the logistical and
Still, the increase is not significant as the salvage
managerial constraints in the case of small industrial
value of the equipment has not been accounted for
consumers, also pose some challenges. However,
in this analysis. The delivered price of ssLNG varies
sound system design, resource management, and
proportionally with the changes in terminal loading
policy support can address these issues.
charges. However, it is still not significant. Finally,
reducing the VAT from 14.5 per cent (as in Kerala) to
3 per cent (as in Maharashtra) reduces the delivered The low initial costs; competitive
price of LNG significantly, by 8–10 per cent. delivered gas prices; and scalability,
flexibility, and movability of ssLNG
Our analysis suggests that the low initial costs;
infrastructure could be very
competitive delivered gas prices; and scalability,
beneficial for improving gas access.
Figure ES4 VAT has the highest impact among the considered sensitivity variables
4%
3.30%
2.90%
2%
0.78%
Base: 13.2% Base: 14.5%
0%
Change in delivered price
-2.90%
-3.44%
-4%
-6%
-7.26%
-8%
-8.79%
-10%
8% 10% 5 years 10 years 0.6 USD/ 1 USD/ 3% 5% 10%
mmBtu mmBtu
Gas pipelines have a large CAPEX outlay for delayed access for the remaining areas. Therefore, a
construction; the upcoming Jagdishpur-Haldia-Bokaro- CGD may not build a network up to individual demand
Dhamra pipeline (JHBDPL) is estimated to cost USD nodes located far from the primary grid, leaving the
0.69 million (INR 5 crore) per kilometre (PNGRB 2019b). latter without access. The ssLNG system could supply
Therefore, pipeline projects are unprofitable in many gas to such demand nodes.
cases, especially without significant viability gap
funding from the government (40 per cent of CAPEX for The transport sector could see a large uptake of LNG
JHBDPL) and the uptake of gas at expected volumes. for heavy-duty vehicles due to its cost-competitiveness
Low capacity utilisation factors (CUF) further diminish with diesel. To promote the use of LNG-fuelled trucks,
the profitability of pipelines, as is the case in the MoPNG plans to install a large number of refuelling
existing network, which has a CUF of approximately stations along major highways in the country. These
48 per cent (Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell stations will require a regular LNG supply, which
[PPAC] 2020a). These issues can restrict the rapid natural gas pipelines cannot provide.
development of pipeline infrastructure, thus limiting
access to potential customers. Given these challenges, Small-scale LNG (ssLNG) could help increase demand
a solution is necessary to build demand for pipelines for gas and provide sustainable access. By utilising
while under construction to ensure their profitability scalable, modular, and movable assets to target small
when completed and to service those demand nodes demand nodes, ssLNG can diversify the natural gas
that will not be connected by pipeline networks in the consumer base. Doing so can help build demand
near future, or ever. for future pipeline networks such that the CUF of
the network is higher than expected in the initial
Access to natural gas depends on the reach of the years. Small-scale LNG can deliver gas to demand
gas transmission pipelines and access to city gas nodes located away from existing and future pipeline
distribution (CGD) pipeline networks that provide last- networks. Small-scale LNG could complement existing
mile delivery to customers. CGDs have infrastructure CGD connections to diversify supply options and
exclusivity over their network in the geographic area optimise procurement costs. LNG refuelling stations
allocated to them. Geographic areas are being allocated across highways will need to be serviced by ssLNG.
to CGDs at a district level, which have varying densities Short-term flexible demand requirements of large
of demand. Typically, CGDs prioritise networks in high constructions, mines and quarries could be met through
demand density areas within a district, resulting in ssLNG systems.
Small-Scale LNG for Expanding Natural Gas Access in India 7
This brief aims to provide an understanding of ssLNG Small-scale LNG could complement
and the various configurations under which it can existing CGD connections to
operate. It offers a snapshot of the status of ssLNG
diversify supply options and optimise
usage across different countries. We discuss the
procurement costs.
opportunities for utilisation of ssLNG systems and who
should invest in such systems. We also discuss the
benefits and challenges of deploying ssLNG systems. 2. What is an ssLNG
system?
The brief includes the economics of delivered prices of
ssLNG for various distances and LNG import prices so
that end users can determine the viability of ssLNG for
their specific cases. Finally, we make recommendations In an ssLNG system, LNG is transported from one point
to transcend barriers and explore new avenues for to another using road, rail, or waterways instead of
scaling up ssLNG in India. pipelines. It is then regasified before the point of end-
use.
In this brief, we do not look at the dynamics of demand
realisation, which primarily rely on competing fuel 2.1. The ssLNG supply chain
prices and switching costs (i.e., retrofitting or replacing)
The typical supply chain for an ssLNG system consists
of end-user equipment. The rationale is that once
of the LNG liquefaction terminal, LNG receiving
the gas is accessible, market forces will resolve these
terminal, transport system, and regasification station.
issues. Since ssLNG is scalable, demand realisation can
In India, however, all LNG is imported to LNG terminals,
happen incrementally, and a priori large-scale demand
which form the starting point of the supply chain
realisation is not necessary as in the case of pipelines.
depicted in Figure 1.
Figure 1 Small-scale LNG systems use road, rail, or waterways instead of transmission pipelines
Gas pipeline
Regasification
facility (large) Demand cluster Demand node
Terminal
LNG storage
LNG tanker
Road
Regasification
facility
Filling (small)
station
Rail
Domestic
shipping
2.1.1 LNG receiving terminal can either access coastal locations or utilise inland
waterways. This solution, too, is limited by the location
Tanker ships carrying LNG arrive at the receiving of the infrastructure. The transport system can be
terminal’s offloading jetty, where a transfer system scaled up or down depending on demand and hence
offloads the LNG into large cryogenic storage tanks. is more suited than pipelines for developing demand
The storage tanks usually contain a buffer of 3–4 days’ clusters or meeting peak-shaving demand. In general,
supply to compensate for any supply disruptions. the cryogenic conditions of LNG storage in the tanks
Stored LNG can be regasified to a high pressure onsite permit hold times of 60–65 days, with boil-off losses of
and supplied to long-distance gas pipeline networks around 0.2 per cent per day (Chart 2013).
that feed large demand clusters. In the case of ssLNG,
the LNG is loaded at the terminal from truck loading For all the three means of transport, the LNG can also
bays into cryogenic containers for transport. As natural be used as fuel for the prime mover (especially for road
gas is imported in a liquid state, liquefaction systems and waterways). LNG use instead of diesel in trucks
are unnecessary; instead, the LNG is transported can improve engine efficiency by approximately 15 per
directly from the terminal to the consumer’s cent (Unilever et al. 2017). LNG purchased from the
regasification facility. In specific scenarios, small-scale importing terminal also costs significantly less than
liquefaction of natural gas from pipelines for delivery diesel available at fuel stations. The extended range
to remote areas in the form of ssLNG might be feasible; that LNG offers also minimises the need for fuel stops.
however, this will require a small liquefaction facility
that can be expensive. 2.1.3 Satellite storage and regasification
plant
2.1.2 Transport
LNG is transported to satellite storage and regasification
Transporting LNG for small-scale consumers is possible plants located at or near the demand node being
via road, rail, or waterways. Road-based transport is supplied. The satellite plant has the following major
common, with trucks hauling LNG containers (20–40 components.
ft long, approximately 16-34 tonnes gross weight,
approximately 20-48 kilolitres capacity) from the LNG
terminal to the satellite plant. Rail-based transport of
The transport system can be scaled
LNG using cryogenic tank wagons can help improve up or down depending on demand
efficiency, provided the rail network can connect the and hence is more suited than
LNG terminal and the demand node. Similarly, LNG pipelines for developing demand
can be transported by small LNG tanker ships that clusters.
High pressure
High pressure consumer
Road vaporiser
HP pump
LNG storage
LP unloading
pump
LP pump
Rail
Domestic
shipping
iii. Containerised systems use small tanks and A CGD can rely on ssLNG (in Configuration 2) to cater to
regasification units that can be hauled by trucks. demand in the early days of infrastructure development
These can supply remote demand nodes or while waiting for access to a transmission pipeline. This
exceptional use cases, such as mines, on a one-time will also help CGDs prioritise grid development to areas
basis or an irregular schedule. when the built-up demand exceeds a certain economic
threshold. Finally, CGDs can use ssLNG to service areas
2.1.4 ssLNG supply configurations which cannot economically be connected by pipelines.
There are four prominent configurations possible for the
sale and transport of LNG from terminal to consumer 2.2 Opportunities for ssLNG
site. The techno-economic assessment in Section 3
considers these options: Small-scale LNG systems are applicable in several areas
and sectors, and the prominent ones are discussed
i. Configuration 1: In the first configuration, the
below,
terminal operator uses its fleet of vehicles to
10 Small-Scale LNG for Expanding Natural Gas Access in India
i. Areas without pipeline access: While several public cheaper and more efficient LNG fuel delivered by
and private stakeholders are involved in increasing ssLNG systems.
gas pipeline coverage, numerous states and districts
will remain without pipeline access in the next iv. Consumers seeking competitive and diversified
decade. Despite extensive trunk pipeline construction supply source: Several consumers, specifically in
(in states like Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu, the industrial sector, are currently buying expensive
Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka), spur lines and city CGD supplied gas (with high marketing margins).
gas networks are yet to materialise. Even in those These consumers can consider ssLNG as a viable and
regions with piped natural gas (PNG) availability, potentially cheaper alternative to CGD supplied gas
the delivered price of gas is often very high due to or to supplement their CGD volumes.
high selling prices (unregulated end-customer prices
& marketing margins) on CGD supplied gas. Thus, 2.3 Who should invest in ssLNG?
significant demand exists for more expensive fuels
Sections 1 and 2.2 show the potential of ssLNG to be an
such as furnace oil, diesel, LPG and CGD gas (see
effective means of distributing gas for various end-use
Figure 7). Small-scale LNG could spur industries and
cases. As such, different stakeholders can consider
small commercial and industrial clusters to switch
investing in ssLNG systems.
from these fuels to natural gas. The gas demand
equivalent to LPG use by industries is significant, at i. Industrial consumers: Industries consuming
41 mmscmd (as calculated from Petroleum Planning expensive fuels such as petcoke, diesel and LPG
and Analysis Cell [PPAC] 2020b, 2020c) for states that could have a net benefit by investing in ssLNG
can access terminals through ssLNG. Further, there is systems for sourcing natural gas. Section 3 shows
a demand of 144 mmscmd gas equivalent for diesel the economics of ssLNG and compares prices of gas
in power generation and transport in industries. (delivered through ssLNG) with incumbent fuels
However, this requires retrofitting or replacement, (see Figure 6). The techno-economic assessment
the economics of which are difficult to quantify. shows that investing in and managing transport and
regasification systems (as in Configuration 2) could
ii. Fuel stations: Heavy-duty transportation could provide a net cost-benefit to the consumer depending
benefit greatly from switching to LNG from diesel on gas demand. Large industrial consumers can also
– the lower fuel costs and potential increase in utilise ssLNG as a temporary arrangement while
fuel efficiency would allow increased margins for pipelines get built.
logistics companies or lower transportation costs
for consumers. The MoPNG expects a demand of ii. Service providers: Logistics companies could
25-30 mmscmd by 2035, with 10 per cent of trucks explore the ssLNG business for transporting gas
switching to LNG (Ministry of Petroleum and Natural between the LNG terminal and the consumer. They
Gas [MoPNG] 2020b). The Ministry has already could operate in Configuration 3 as a logistics
planned a network of 50 LNG refuelling stations provider or in Configuration 4 as an aggregator, thus
along the Golden Quadrilateral network of national commanding higher margins on the gas delivered.
highways, targeting an increase to 1,000 stations in
iii. CGD operators: Existing CGD network operators
the next three years (MoPNG 2020b). Using ssLNG
could expand the reach of their network within
systems to service these stations with fuel could
a geographic area using ssLNG, thereby avoiding
become the norm, similar to conventional fuel
the need to rely on pipelines for areas which do
stations. This provides an excellent opportunity for
not have a significant gas demand. CGDs can also
third party operators to aggregate fuel station and
develop ssLNG systems to supply gas to their pipeline
consumer gas demand to optimise their systems.
networks that are still waiting for connections to a
iii. Mines, quarries and large construction sites: trunk transmission pipeline.
Certain locations such as mines and construction
sites could benefit from ssLNG distribution systems
since such sites are usually not suited to pipeline The gas demand equivalent to LPG
connections. A large quantity of energy is consumed used by industries is significant,
in the form of diesel by heavy-duty machinery at 41 mmscmd for states that can
operating at such sites, which could benefit from access terminals through ssLNG.
Small-Scale LNG for Expanding Natural Gas Access in India 11
ii. An ssLNG system allows demand centres (such as x. Piped gas relies primarily on long-term contract
mines and factories, typically located away from prices; however, ssLNG can exploit the spot market
populated areas) that are not connected to pipeline and leverage dips in short-term prices.
networks to access natural gas.
xi. Opting for ssLNG to supplement their existing PNG
iii. It is cost-competitive with various incumbent connections would allow consumers to optimise their
fuels such as LPG and diesel (see Figure 6) despite supply chain and procurement costs better.
the lower efficiency of ssLNG transport vis-à-vis
pipelines. Challenges
i. As ssLNG systems rely on road, rail, or waterway
iv. Multiple ssLNG players servicing the same area will
transport, they are susceptible to disruptions
bring about competition and better price discovery
to any of these modes of transport resulting
for end users.
from natural events (flooding, cyclones, and
v. CAPEX requirements for an ssLNG system earthquakes); accidents that delay travel; or human-
are significantly lower than the costs of pipeline made events such as strikes or public disorder. Such
development. Multiple operators can serve the same disruptions can be mitigated to a large extent by
area, leading to CAPEX distribution among multiple maintaining a sufficient LNG inventory that covers
entities, thus de-risking systemic CAPEX allocation. consumption or send-out for 3–5 days without
Therefore, ssLNG systems can expand more quickly needing replenishment.
than pipelines.
ii. Small-scale LNG primarily benefits end-users
vi. Pipelines typically experience low demand in the who require only a small volume. However, such
initial years of operation, reducing the project’s end users typically do not have the sophistication to
overall profitability. Such a lack of demand visibility manage their own fuel supply chain, as discussed
also hinders future expansion. An ssLNG system in Configuration 2. Even if the end-user relies on
can be utilised to build anchor demand while the Configuration 1 approach (where the terminal
pipelines are in the development phase, thereby supplies the LNG), they may not be able to secure
improving their overall viability and profitability long-term contracts. Thus, they will become
when completed. susceptible to price movements in international
markets and price changes in the terminal’s LNG
vii. Since pipelines are fixed, non-scalable assets, supply contracts. However, this is not significantly
they must be sized appropriately to have sufficient different from piped natural gas, which is susceptible
capacity to meet any increases in demand for a few to the international LNG market’s vagaries.
decades. However, there is the risk of demand
stagnating at a lower capacity and pipeline assets iii. Utilising natural gas in existing industrial
getting stranded. Small-scale LNG systems can or commercial facilities often requires some
mitigate this risk, as it is movable and scalable. retrofitting of equipment or re-engineering of
12 Small-Scale LNG for Expanding Natural Gas Access in India
processes. This warrants some upfront capital hundreds, of small units. In such cases, there is no
investment to enable the switch from the incumbent single entity that can be held responsible for the
fuel to natural gas. Also, industrial operations logistics, common storage and regas infrastructure
are designed to use a specific fuel which provides and management of gas supply. Also, because
process stability. Changes in fuel type and the multiple units are involved, a microgrid distribution
associated uncertainty is undesirable. These issues pipeline network is necessary to move the gas
may dissuade consumers in the industrial sector from from the common receiving site for storage and
switching to LNG. regasification and the end consumers’ sites.
gas consumers are traditionally supplied by pipeline transport) is on the rise because they are more fuel-
networks, the development of which the government efficient (Unilever et al. 2017) and LNG costs less than
continues to prioritise. diesel.
Small-scale LNG was pioneered in India by Indian Oil LNG is distributed predominantly by trucks; an
Corporation Ltd in 2007 (Indian Oil Corporation Ltd estimated fleet of 1,300 LNG delivery trucks was
[IOCL] 2020). In 2019, the company sold 36.12 thousand functional in China in 2016. The country has adopted
tonnes of ssLNG (IOCL 2019) and was the market leader waterway transport using small LNG tankers (which
in the supply of LNG by trucks (IOCL 2015). deliver LNG from large terminals to smaller ones) at a
limited scale; only two such ships were in operation
Small-scale LNG could precede pipeline construction as of 2018. There are more than six million natural gas
to build demand for the latter; Gail (India) Limited has vehicles in China, of which around 200,000 are heavy-
established this configuration in India. To enhance duty trucks (APEC Energy Working Group 2019). Strong
demand in the city of Bhubaneswar, where Gail has governmental intervention and control of prices have
been allocated the development of CGD, the company ensured the prevalence of ssLNG in the Chinese market
is transporting LNG from Dahej on the west coast (1,700 (International Gas Union [IGU] 2015).
kilometres away) using trucks. The LNG is regasified
to low pressure for city gas users and high pressure 2.5.3 Other markets
for CNG vehicles (Press Trust of India 2020). This Countries such as the USA and Japan consume large
configuration intends to create demand and make quantities of natural gas and are developing ssLNG
the upcoming long-distance pipeline more profitable. infrastructure. In both Japan and the USA, ssLNG is
Similar systems could supplement future city gas partially transported by train, using either cryogenic
networks catering to smaller towns so that distributors railway wagons (in the USA) (Levy 2020) or intermodal
can use ssLNG systems instead of relying on third-party ISO containers (in Japan) (JAPEX 2020). Iran is also
pipeline development. developing its ssLNG distribution network; moreover,
the low price of domestic gas enables the country to
Currently, the LNG import terminals (Dahej, Hazira, meet demand in remote regions (Shirazi et al. 2019).
Kochi and Ennore) supply ssLNG to a small number of Similar developments are taking place in South
industrial consumers. A lack of awareness and a limited America, with limited small-scale distribution in
supplier base which can offer flexible and customised countries like Argentina (Garcia-Cuerva and Sanz
price constructs to manage volatile gas prices also limit Sobrino 2009). Small-scale LNG is used in Indonesia
such applications. Expanding such ssLNG systems to support gas power plants, and in Europe to reach
through third party or terminal networks will help remote demand centres, CNG stations, and ship
increase the CUF of underperforming LNG terminals refuelling (APEC Energy Working Group 2019).
(such as the one in Ennore), where a lack of demand
and pipeline construction delays affect handling and
loading charges.
3. The economics of ssLNG
2.5.2 ssLNG in China
We assessed the techno-economic feasibility of ssLNG
China is by far the largest market for ssLNG, with an
distribution by comparing the delivered prices of LNG
estimated capacity of approximately 20 mtpa (in 2020),
with those of other fuels such as coal, petcoke, LPG,
predominantly in the northern and western provinces
and diesel, as well as that of gas delivered through
(IGU 2015). Drivers of ssLNG in China include policy
pipelines. We considered a baseline demand of 0.1
concerns surrounding air pollution, which prompted
million metric standard cubic metres per day (mmscmd)
coal-to-gas switching in 2017 (APEC Energy Working
for one-way distances between 200 and 1,000
Group 2019). Various sectors consume ssLNG; however,
kilometres (the total distance is double for the return
transport demand will be significant in the future. The
trip of empty containers). This volume represents the
use of LNG and CNG vehicles (especially for heavy-duty
demand of a small township or a mid-sized industrial
cluster or individual unit (using fuel for process heat).
Small-scale LNG presently has very
little penetration in India.
14 Small-Scale LNG for Expanding Natural Gas Access in India
Fuel consumption 35 litres (l)/100 km (loaded) (International Council on Clean Transport [ICCT] 2017)
(diesel truck)
30% less (empty) (Maynus and Sheckler 2009)
Fuel consumption 15% less than that of diesel trucks (Unilever et al. 2017)
(LNG truck)
Section 3.1.2). The consumer bears this cost in all the iii. We estimated the cost of diesel based on average
configurations. prices in June 2019.
3.1.1 Transport cost iv. We assumed the cost of LNG as fuel for trucks to be
the same as the LNG price ex-terminal.
Road transport
Transportation costs involve the cost of purchasing and v. We considered 40-foot tank trailers to transport the
operating trucks (fuelled by diesel or LNG) and trailers. LNG from the terminal to the consumer.
Table 1 shows the key assumptions. Table 2 gives the cost of road-based transport.
i. We calculated the operating expense (OPEX) of trucks
based on typical costs such as maintenance, wages, Rail transport
and tolls per tonne-km (tkm) (Transport Corporation The Indian railway system is not yet equipped to
of India [TCI] and IIM Calcutta 2016). The costs were transport LNG via intermodal containers or railway
scaled (to the tonnage/mileage of a specific case wagons. We estimated rail transport costs by assuming
from those of the base case) and inflated (from 2015 that intermodal ISO containers would be transported
values) (Reserve Bank of India [RBI] 2020). as Class 180 cargo (Indian Railways Conference
Association [IRCA] 2012) under the assumptions in
ii. Freight rates were scaled based on distance (Rivigo Table 3. The rail transport costs are provided in Table 4.
2019) and LNG price (for LNG trucks).
Truck (diesel) USD 32,732 (INR 2.4 million) each (IndoTrux 2020) 0.03–0.04 USD/tkm (2.12–3.02 INR/tkm)
Truck (LNG) 30% more than diesel truck CAPEX (Barnett 2018) 0.013–0.026 USD/tkm (0.98–1.92 INR/tkm)
(Configuration 2)
Truck (trailer) USD 136,836 (INR 10 million) each (industry sources) 5 per cent of CAPEX/year (assumed)
Train Not applicable 0.025–0.03 USD/tkm (1.82–2.22 INR/tkm) (Ministry of Railways 2020)
ISO container USD 122,748 (INR 9 million each) 5 per cent of CAPEX/year (assumed)
3.1.2 Satellite plant cost delivered cost. However, one can approximately
calculate the cost by considering an applicable
The satellite plant costs primarily include the cost of
transport tariff, a transport margin (of approximately
the storage tanks and regasification system (pump,
20 per cent) and a goods-and-services tax (GST) on
vaporiser, and piping) to meet the consumption or
transportation.
send-out requirement of 0.1 mmscmd. We made the
following assumptions:
Using a simple discounted cash flow method, we
i. The vaporiser operates at a CUF of 80 per cent. determined the cost per mmBtu of transporting and
ii. The storage system includes a buffer of regasifying ssLNG. The expenses (or cash outflow)
approximately two days’ demand (Shirazi et al. 2019, consist of (a) the capital investment for the satellite
numbers scaled to 0.1 mmscmd). station, LNG containers, and trucks in the case of
road transport, and (b) the operating costs for the
iii. A factor of 1.94 is applied to convert equipment costs
satellite station and truck or rail tariff as applicable.
to engineering, procurement, and construction costs
We estimated the tariff by setting the net present
(Shirazi et al. 2019).
value of the cash flows to zero, such that the expenses
iv. We considered a lifetime of 20 years for the satellite break even with the corresponding transport and
plant. regasification tariffs. We made all calculations on a real
currency basis.
3.1.3 Delivered price calculation method for
ssLNG Our tariff calculations include determining the right
Figure 3 gives an overview of the price build-up for all number of containers and trucks in the case of road
four configurations. The delivered price of regasified transport, and the size and costs of the satellite
ssLNG considers import costs, terminal charges, station based on the daily natural gas demand. The
transport costs, regasification costs and all applicable calculations also scale the cost of transport based on
taxes and duties at each stage. The calculation does the round-trip distance involved in LNG delivery. We
not include profit margins for the transport of LNG. developed all estimates using real currency values (with
This assumption is valid for Configuration 2, in which 2019 as the base year) and a discount rate of 13.2 per
the end-user owns and operates the transport system. cent (State Bank of India [SBI] 2019). We assumed the
Therefore, we presented the results for Configuration satellite station and trucks’ lifetimes to be 20 years and
2 only. For Configurations 1, 3 and 4, since the 10 years, respectively.
transport system’s utilisation is dependent on multiple
consumers, it is not easy to calculate a representative
Satellite plant USD 2.14 million (INR 156.7 million) USD 0.24 million (INR 17.8 million) per year (Garcia-Cuerva
(Shirazi et al. 2019) and Sanz Sobrino 2009)
Basic customs Surcharge D= A+(AxB%) Basic custom Surcharge D= A+(AxB%) Basic custom Surcharge D= A+(AxB%)
duty (B%) (C%) +(AxB%xC%) duty (B%) (C%) +(AxB%xC%) duty (B%) (C%) +(AxB%xC%)
Satellite
Central sales
storage and Delivered R = P+(AxQ%)
R = P+Q tax (Q%)
regasification cost (P)
cost (Q)
Sales VAT at
delivery state T = R+(AxS%)
Delivered
(S%)
cost (R)
Satellite
storage and
regasification V = T+U
cost (U)
#
Transporting through rail will incur a GST on the rail freight charges
---- Line represents additional costs for Configuration 4; I is zero for Configuration 3
Delivered
Source: Authors’ analysis cost (V)
18 Small-Scale LNG for Expanding Natural Gas Access in India
Table 6 Configuration 2 delivered prices for different LNG import prices and transport distances
Diesel LNG Rail Diesel LNG Rail Diesel LNG Rail Diesel LNG Rail
truck truck truck truck truck truck truck truck
200 6.95 6.72 6.59 9.30 8.66 8.96 11.66 11.04 11.32 14.01 13.42 13.67
400 7.19 6.89 6.71 9.54 8.85 9.09 11.89 11.24 11.44 14.24 13.62 13.79
600* 7.40 7.09 6.88 9.80 9.10 9.30 12.20 11.53 11.70 14.60 13.97 14.10
800* 7.74 7.34 6.98 10.14 9.36 9.40 12.54 11.81 11.80 14.94 14.25 14.20
1000* 7.91 7.47 7.04 10.31 9.50 9.46 12.71 11.95 11.86 15.11 14.41 14.26
Table 6 shows that tariffs and delivered costs are Considering a one-way distance of
lowest for rail transport. Such low costs are because
200 kilometres and the average
transporting via trains does not require capital
2017–18 import price of 7.39 USD/
investment for vehicles as in road transport. Also, rail
transport is generally more cost-efficient, although it
mmBtu (542 INR/mmBtu) the
is not necessarily more time-efficient. Transport using delivered price amounts to 11.11
LNG trucks is inherently cheaper (see Section 2.1.2). USD/mmBtu (815 INR/mmBtu).
Finally, the tariffs and delivered prices increase non-
linearly with the increase in the import price of LNG. between the delivered price of incumbent fuel and
This is due to the cascading effect of taxes levied on natural gas required to recover the investments in the
the LNG through the value chain. regasification equipment (and trucks if needed) in a
certain time frame.
Figure 4 shows the build-up of the delivered price
of regasified LNG for a typical case. Considering a We calculated the required price spread between the
one-way distance of 200 kilometres and the average delivered incumbent fuel and gas procured as ssLNG
2017–18 import price of 7.39 USD/mmBtu (542 INR/ for specific target payback periods of two, three, four
mmBtu) (Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell [PPAC] and five years for any equipment purchased. Table
2020b), the delivered price amounts to 11.11 USD/ 7 gives the required price spread in USD/mmBtu for
mmBtu (815 INR/mmBtu). Evidently, for a given import different targeted payback periods. For Configurations
price, the state sales VAT forms a significant part of 1, 3 and 4, the consumer would purchase only
the final delivered price, as in this case with a VAT of the satellite unit’s equipment (storage and
14.5 per cent as applied in Kerala. The transport cost regasification). Thus, the price spreads are smaller
will double if the one-way distance increases to 1,000 since transportation costs would be included in the
kilometres. fuel’s delivered price. In this case, the price spread is
independent of the consumer’s distance from the LNG
3.2.1 Payback periods terminal. For Configuration 2, the consumer would
purchase equipment for both the satellite unit and
A critical decision for consumers of ssLNG is whether
the transportation (trucks and tank trailers). Here,
to invest in the regasification equipment (and trucks
the spreads are larger for a 200-kilometre one-way
as well, in the case of Configuration 2) and more
distance as the transport systems’ added cost affects
importantly, how long it will take to recover the
the payback period.
investment. One easy way to evaluate the recovery
is to determine the price spread (or difference)
12
0.45 11.11
0.72
1.26
10
0.14 0.15
0.80
Price (USD/mmBtu)
8 7.39 0.20
0
LNG Import Truck GST on Interstate State sales Transport Regasification Delivered
import duty + loading loading tax VAT cost cost cost
price surcharge charge charge
Table 7 Price spreads for early paybacks are small Table 8 Effect of lifetime on delivered price (%) is
marginal
Payback Price spread required (USD/mmBtu)
period LNG import price 10 years 5 years
(years) Configuration 1, Configuration 2 (USD/mmBtu)
3 and 4 (distance (200 km one-way)
independent)
4 +1.04 +4.42
2 0.71 1.04 6 +0.78 +3.30
3 0.50 0.74 8 +0.62 +2.63
4 0.40 0.59 10 +0.52 +2.19
5 0.34 0.50
Source: Authors’ analysis
Source: Authors’ analysis
the LNG terminal in the delivered price. We varied
3.2.2 Sensitivity analyses the loading charge from 0.8 USD/mmBtu (59 INR/
mmBtu) in the base case to 0.6 and 1 USD/mmBtu (44
To understand the effect of certain variables on
and 73 INR/mmBtu) to determine the impact on the
the delivered price of regasified ssLNG, we carried
delivered price of LNG. Table 9 shows the resulting
out some sensitivity analyses using the base case
percentage increases. The delivered price significantly
parameters. Figure 6 summarises the effects of these
increases only at lower LNG import prices, and when
parameters.
the loading charge is a substantial part of the overall
delivered price.
Effect of the project lifetime
In the base case analysis (an import price of 7.39 USD/ Table 9 Effect of loading charge on delivered price
mmBtu and a one-way distance of 200 kilometres), (%) is modest
we considered a lifetime of 20 years for the ssLNG
infrastructure. However, to understand the economics LNG import price 0.6 USD/ 1 USD/
(USD/mmBtu) mmBtu mmBtu
of shorter lifetimes, we conducted sensitivity analyses
for lifetimes of ten years (for future gas transmission 4 -3.89 +3.89
pipeline access) and five years (in case transmission
6 -2.90 +2.90
pipelines are already under consideration). Table
8 shows the comparison; the increase in costs is 8 -2.32 +2.32
consistent across different distances.
10 -1.93 +1.93
Table 10 Effect of discount rate on delivered price Table 11 Effect of VAT on delivered price (%) can be
(%) is negligible significant
4%
3.30%
2.90%
2%
0.78%
Base: 13.2% Base: 14.5%
0%
Change in delivered price
-2.90%
-3.44%
-4%
-6%
-7.26%
-8%
-8.79%
-10%
8% 10% 5 years 10 years 0.6 USD/ 1 USD/ 3% 5% 10%
mmBtu mmBtu
3.2.3 Comparison of delivered prices of case of PNG, coal, petcoke, and furnace oil, ssLNG
regasified ssLNG and other fuels is competitive depending on the fuel quality and
location. LNG prices are expected to remain tepid, so it
The overall economic benefit of using natural gas
may be feasible for consumers of the incumbent fuels
depends on the cost of retrofitting/replacing existing
to switch to regasified LNG.
equipment. However, regasified ssLNG can compete
on a delivered price basis with other petroleum
3.3 Different potential applications
fuels such as furnace oil, diesel, liquefied petroleum
gas (LPG), petcoke (mostly imported grades), and
of ssLNG
higher grades of coal. To provide a comparison on We tested the applicability of ssLNG by calculating
an equitable basis, Figure 6 shows a plot of ranges the delivered price of gas to existing facilities of
of 2017–18 prices of regasified ssLNG and other different industries that are not presently serviced
petroleum fuels delivered to industrial consumers by gas pipelines. Then, we compared this price with
across the country (Ministry of Statistics and that of the incumbent fuel(s) being used (MoSPI
Programme Implementation [MoSPI] 2018). For 2017– 2018). We employed the 2017-18 average LNG import
18, we used the actual average price of imported LNG, price of, 7.39 USD/mmBtu (542 INR/mmBtu) (PPAC
7.39 USD/mmBtu (542 INR/mmBtu) (PPAC 2020b), 2020b). MoSPI’s Annual Survey of Industries 2017–18
to estimate the delivered price of ssLNG for a range provided the volumes and prices of incumbent fuels.
of distances, from 100 to 1,000 kilometres. Figure 6 We compared these prices with the delivered price of
displays the resultant ranges of delivered prices for ssLNG in the historic year 2017–18. Table 12 provides
LNG and competing fuels. The lowest and highest some examples of ssLNG applications in real-world
state VATs (for Maharashtra and Kerala) for states cases. We estimated the payback periods for the ssLNG
having LNG terminals were considered for estimating equipment needed in each case based on the price
the ssLNG price range. spread between ssLNG and the incumbent fuels.
Figure 6 The delivered price of regasified LNG compares favourably with several incumbent fuels
30
26.84
25
22.56
21.83
Delivered price (USD/mmBtu)
20 21.23
15.46
15
11.98 11.74
10 9.10 11.40
10.11
8.66
7.98
3.09 3.09
0
ssLNG Coal Petcoke Furnace oil PNG LPG Diesel
Expected Erode, Tamil Nadu Jalgaon, Palakkad, Kerala Sriperumbudur, Ernakulam, Kerala
location Maharashtra Tamil Nadu
Nearest LNG Ennore LNG Dahej LNG Kochi LNG Ennore LNG Kochi LNG terminal
terminal terminal terminal terminal terminal
Demand 0.013 mmscmd 0.004 mmscmd 0.016 mmscmd 0.16 mmscmd 0.043 mmscmd
equivalent gas equivalent equivalent equivalent equivalent
Incumbent High-speed Diesel and High-speed diesel Furnace oil LPG and furnace oil
fuel(s) diesel, furnace furnace oil
oil, and other oil
products
Weighted 21.99 USD/ 22.37 USD/ 22.32 USD/ 10.96 USD/ 13.01 USD/mmBtu
average mmBtu mmBtu mmBtu mmBtu
incumbent
fuel price
Delivered 10.51 USD/ 12.50 USD/ 11.28 USD/ 10.17 USD/ 11.00 USD/mmBtu
price of gas mmBtu mmBtu mmBtu mmBtu
as ssLNG
Annual 4.72 million USD 1.56 million USD 5.65 million USD 27.73 million USD 9.05 million USD
expenditure
on incumbent
fuels
Annual 2.25 million USD 0.87 million USD 2.85 million USD 25.72 million USD 7.65 million USD
expenditure (2.46 million USD (0.69 million USD (2.79 million USD (2.01 million USD (1.40 million USD
on ssLNG saved) saved) saved) saved) saved)
From the case studies, it is clear that ssLNG can be as Lack of competition to the
competitive as, or cheaper than, incumbent petroleum
unregulated CGD supplied gas keeps
fuels. However, it is worth noting that there could be
gas prices at an uncompetitive level.
costs involved in retrofitting combustion equipment
necessary to switch from a liquid or solid fuel to natural
gas. One must evaluate these added costs against the Legal issues regarding the use of ssLNG, such as the
savings and reduced maintenance resulting from using case of Saint Gobain India Private Limited vs Gujarat
cheaper natural gas instead of coal and petroleum Gas Limited where the latter has asserted that the
fuels. former’s use of ssLNG violates their exclusivity rights,
could significantly limit investment in ssLNG systems
(PNGRB 2018). The risk of legal disputes and challenges
Image: Shell
Small-Scale LNG for Expanding Natural Gas Access in India