STAT 430 – Probability

Spring 2022
Homework 1
Due Friday, Jan 21th 11:59pm
The following section and problem numbers refer to the book page images posted
on Canvas, which may differ from the book version you have. Be sure you are
working on the right problems. Answering the wrong homework problem lead
to you receiving zero points for that problem.
You will upload your homework assignment to Gradescope. PDFs generated via
scan or via export from, e.g., LaTeX are preferred, although JPG files will also
be accepted. Late submissions are not allowed.

1. (10 points) Exercise 2.6

Solution. Before we move on to the problems, let’s take a look on how the sample
space S is defined:
S = {(x, y)|x, y ∈ {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}}.

(a) We define the given sets as a subset of S using set-builder notations.

A = {(x, y) ∈ S|y is even}

B = {(x, y) ∈ S|x + y is even}
C = {(x, y) ∈ S|x or y is odd}

(b) We list the points of the desired events below.

A ={(1, 2), (2, 2), (3, 2), (4, 2), (5, 2), (6, 2),
(1, 4), (2, 4), (3, 4), (4, 4), (5, 4), (6, 4),
(1, 6), (2, 6), (3, 6), (4, 6), (5, 6), (6, 6)}

C ={(x, y) ∈ S|x and y are even}

={(2, 2), (2, 4), (2, 6), (4, 2), (4, 4), (4, 6), (6, 2), (6, 4), (6, 6)}

A ∩ B ={(x, y) ∈ S|y and x + y are even}

={(x, y) ∈ S|x and y are even}
={(2, 2), (2, 4), (2, 6), (4, 2), (4, 4), (4, 6), (6, 2), (6, 4), (6, 6)}

A ∩ B ={(x, y) ∈ S|y is even, and x + y is odd}

={(x, y) ∈ S|x is odd, and y is even}
 ={(1, 2), (1, 4), (1, 6), (3, 2), (3, 4), (3, 6), (5, 2), (5, 4), (5, 6)}

A ∪ B ={(x, y) ∈ S|y is odd, or x + y is even}

={(x, y) ∈ S|y is odd, or both x and y are even}
={(1, 1), (2, 1), (3, 1), (4, 1), (5, 1), (6, 1),
(1, 3), (2, 3), (3, 3), (4, 3), (5, 3), (6, 3),
(1, 5), (2, 5), (3, 5), (4, 5), (5, 5), (6, 5),
(2, 2), (2, 4), (2, 6), (4, 2), (4, 4), (4, 6), (6, 2), (6, 4), (6, 6)}

A ∩ C ={(x, y) ∈ S|y is odd, and x or y is odd}

={(x, y) ∈ S|y is odd}
={(1, 1), (2, 1), (3, 1), (4, 1), (5, 1), (6, 1),
(1, 3), (2, 3), (3, 3), (4, 3), (5, 3), (6, 3),
(1, 5), (2, 5), (3, 5), (4, 5), (5, 5), (6, 5)}

2. (10 points) Exercise 2.8

Solution. Let A and B be the sets of undergraduate students and students were living
off campus, respectively. Let S be the set of all students who have taken the survey. In
order for concise arguments, for any set X, we let |X| denote the number of elements
(or, in this problem, the number of students) in any set X. We know from the question
description that |A| = 36, |B| = 9, |A ∪ B| = 3, and |S| = 60.
(a) We want to calculate the number of elements in
{undergraduates, were living off campus, or both} = A ∪ B.
If we merely add |A| and |B|, we double count the number of elements in A ∩ B
(or the number of students who were both undergraduate and living off campus).
Hence, we subtract the double counted number from the added numbers:
|A ∪ B| = |A| + |B| − |A ∩ B| = 36 + 9 − 3 = 42.

(b) For this sub-question, we want to calculate the number of elements in

{undergraduates living on campus} = A ∩ B.
Since we can partition A into two disjoint subsets A ∩ B and A ∩ B, we get |A ∩ B|
by subtracting |A ∩ B| from |A|:
|A ∩ B| = |A| − |A ∩ B| = 36 − 3 = 33.

(c) We want to calculate the number of elements in

{graduate students living on campus} = A ∩ B = A ∪ B.
 Hence, we get |A ∪ B| by subtracting |A ∪ B| from the number of the entire
students:
|A ∪ B| = |S| − |A ∪ B| = 60 − 42 = 18.
3. (10 points) A partition
Sn of the sample space S is a collection of disjoint events S1 , S2 , . . . , Sn
such that S = i=1 Si .
(a) Show that for any event A, we have
n
X
P (A) = P (A ∩ Si )
i=1

Solution. We have
P (A) = P (A ∩ S)
n
[
= P (A ∩ ( Si ))
i=1
n
[
= P( (A ∩ Si )) (by distributive laws).
i=1

Here, A ∩ S1 , A ∩ S2 , . . . , A ∩ Sn are also disjoint events. Therefore, by the Axiom

3 of probability measure, we have
n
[ n
X
P (A) = P ( (A ∩ Si )) = P (A ∩ Si ),
i=1 i=1

which is the desired result.

(b) Use part (a) to show that for any event A, B, C we have
P (A) = P (A ∩ B) + P (A ∩ C) + P (A ∩ B̄ ∩ C̄) − P (A ∩ B ∩ C) (1)

S1 = B, S2 = B̄ ∩ C̄, S3 = B̄ ∩ C. Note that they are disjoint

Solution. Let S
events and S = 3i=1 Si . Plug in S1 , S2 , S3 to (a)
P (A) = P (A ∩ S1 ) + P (A ∩ S2 ) + P (A ∩ S3 )
= P (A ∩ B) + P (A ∩ B̄ ∩ C̄) + P (A ∩ B̄ ∩ C)
Comparing the above equality with (1), it suffices to prove
P (A ∩ C) − P (A ∩ B ∩ C) = P (A ∩ B̄ ∩ C),
or equivalently
P (A ∩ C) = P (A ∩ B ∩ C) + P (A ∩ B̄ ∩ C).
Define a new event D = A ∩ C. The above equality is equivalent to
P (D) = P (D ∩ B) + P (D ∩ B̄).
Since B and B̄ form a disjoint partition of the sample space S, the above equality
is precisely the one we proved in Part (a) of this question. Thus the proof is
finished.
4. (10 points) A four-sided die is rolled repeatedly, until the first time (if ever) that an
even number is obtained. What is the sample space for this experiments?
Solution. In words, the sample space is the set of all sequences of the form (x1 , ..., xτ )
where xi is either one or three for any i < τ and xτ is either two or four. Here, τ is the
time when this die-rolling experiment is stopped. We can also write this sample space
explicitly:

S = {2, 4, 12, 32, 14, 34, 112, 132, 312, 332, 114, 134, 314, 334, . . .}.

5. (10 points) A factory operates three different shifts. Over the last year, 200 accidents
have occurred at the factory. Some of these can be attributed to unsafe working
conditions, whereas the others are unrelated to working conditions. The table gives
the percentage of accidents falling in each type of accident-shift category.

Unsafe Unrelated to
Shift Conditions Conditions
Day 10% 35%
Swing 8% 20%
Night 5% 22%

Suppose one of the 200 accident reports is randomly selected and the shift and type of
accident are determined.

(a) What are the simple events?

Solution. In order for concise arguments, let

D = {occurred on the day shift}, S = {on the swing shift}, N = {on the night shift},

and
C = {attributed to unsafe working conditions}.
Simple events are events that does not consist of smaller events. In this problem,
there are six simple events:

D ∩ C, D ∩ C, S ∩ C, S ∩ C, N ∩ C, N ∩ C.

(b) What is the probability that the selected accident was attributed to unsafe con-
ditions?
Solution. Let’s denote those simple events as follows
Unsafe Unrelated to
Shift Conditions Conditions
Day E1 E2
Swing E3 E4
Night E5 E6
 The desired event is

{attributed to unsafe conditions} = E1 ∪ E3 ∪ E5 .

Hence, Axiom 3 of probabilities implies that

P ({attributed to unsafe conditions}) = P (E1 ) + P (E3 ) + P (E5 ) = 23%.

(c) What is the probability that the selected accident did not occur on the day shift?
Solution. Note that

{occurred on the day shift} = E1 ∪ E2

Hence, Axiom 2 and 3 of probabilities imply that

P ({did not occur on the day shift} =100% − P ({occurred on the day shift})
=100% − (P (E1 ) + P (E2 )) = 55%

6. (10 points) Exercise 2.18

Solution. Let H and T denote head and tail observed for each coin toss, respectively,
and (X1 , X2 ) denote each toss of two balanced coins (X1 is the observation from the
first coin toss). For example, (H, T ) means a head observed at the first coin toss and
a tail observed at the second coin toss.

(a) The sample points are

(H, H), (H, T ), (T, H), (T, T )

(b) Assume both coins are fair coins and the two tosses do not effect each other.
Under those two assumptions, we have

P ({(H, H)}) = P ({(H, T )}) = P ({(T, T )}) = P ({(T, H)}).

i.e., every sample point has the same probability. Because the experiment results
only in the listed sample points, we use Axiom 2 and 3 of probabilities to get

1 =P (S) = P ({(H, H)}) + P ({(H, T )}) + P ({(T, H)}) + P ({(T, T )})

=4P ({(H, H)}).

This derives
1
P ({(H, H)}) = P ({(H, T )}) = P ({(T, T )}) = P ({(T, H)}) = .
4
(c) We have

A ={(H, T ), (T, H)},

B ={(H, T ), (T, H), (H, H)}.
 (d) We have
2 1
P (A) =P ({(H, T ), (T, H)}) = =
4 2
3
P (B) =P ({(H, T ), (T, H), (H, H)}) =
4
2 1
P (A ∩ B) =P ({(H, T ), (T, H)}) = =
4 2
3
P (A ∪ B) =P ({(H, T ), (T, H), (H, H)}) =
4
P (Ā ∪ B) =P ({(H, H), (T, T ), (H, T ), (T, H)}) = 1

7. (10 points) We are given three fair coins: one has heads in both faces, the second has
tails in both faces, and the third has a head in one face and a tail in the other. We
choose a coin at random, toss it, and the result is heads. What is the probability that
the opposite face is tails?
Solution 1. Probabilities of simple events are listed below

Coin
Result Both face head Head and tail Both face tail
Head 1/3 1/6 0
Tail 0 1/6 1/3

Thus, we have
1
6 1
P ({The opposite face is tails} | {The result is heads}) = 1 1 =
3
+ 6
3

Solution 2. Alternatively, we use Bayes theorem / definition of the conditional prob-

ability. We have

P (the oppsite is tail | randomly choose a coin, toss it, and see head)
P (randomly choose a coin, toss it, and see head, and the opposite is tail)
=
P (randomly choose a coin, toss it, and see head)
We first calculate the numerator:

P (randomly choose a coin, toss it, and see head, and the opposite is tail)
= P (the HH coin is chosen)P (see head and the opposite is tail | the HH coin is chosen)
+ P (the TT coin is chosen)P (see head and the opposite is tail | the TT coin is chosen)
+ P (the HT coin is chosen)P (see head and the opposite is tail | the HT coin is chosen)
1 1 1 1
= ×0+ ×0+ ×
3 3 3 2
1
= .
6
 The denominator can be calculated similarly:

P (randomly choose a coin, toss it, and see head)

= P (the HH coin is chosen)P (see head | the HH coin is chosen)
+ P (the TT coin is chosen)P (see head | the TT coin is chosen)
+ P (the HT coin is chosen)P (see head | the HT coin is chosen)
1 1 1 1
= ×1+ ×0+ ×
3 3 3 2
1
= .
2
Thus, the desired probability is
1/6 1
= .
1/2 3

8. (10 points) The population of a particular country consists of three ethnic groups.
Each individual belongs to one of the four major blood groups. The table gives the
proportions of individuals in the various ethnic group-blood group combinations.

Blood Group
Ethnic Group O A B AB
1 .082 .106 .008 .004
2 .135 .141 .018 .006
3 .215 .200 .065 .020

Suppose that an individual is randomly selected from the population, and define events
by A = {type A selected}, B = {type B selected}, and C = {ethnic group 3 selected}.

(a) Calculate P (A), P (C), and P (A ∩ C).

Solution. We use Axiom 3 of probabilities to obtain P (A) and P (C):

P (A) =0.106 + 0.141 + 0.200 = 0.447

P (C) =0.215 + 0.200 + 0.065 + 0.020 = 0.500

Also, P (A ∩ C) is given in the table as 0.200.

(b) Calculate P (A | C) and P (C | A), and explain in context what each of these
probabilities represents.
Solution. According to the definition of conditional probabilities,

P (A ∩ C)
P (A|C) = = 0.200/0.500 = 0.400
P (C)
P (A ∩ C)
P (C|A) = = 0.200/0.447 ≈ 0.447
P (A)
 In the context of this problem, P (A|C) is the probability that the selected indi-
vidual has blood type A when this person is from ethnic group 3. On the other
hand, P (C|A) is the probability that this individual is from ethnic group 3 when
the blood type is A.
(c) If the selected individual does not have type B blood, what is the probability that
he or she is from ethnic group 1?
Solution. Let D denote the event that the selected individual is from ethnic
group 1. We presume the selected individual not having blood type B, so the
probability we are looking for is conditional probability P (D|B̄). According to
Axiom 3 of probabilities,

P (B) =0.008 + 0.018 + 0.065 = 0.091

P (D ∩ B̄) =0.082 + 0.106 + 0.004 = 0.192

Hence,

P (D ∩ B̄) P (D ∩ B̄) 0.192 0.192

P (D|B̄) = = = = ≈ 0.211
P (B̄) 1 − P (B) 1 − 0.091 0.909

9. (10 points) Exercise 2.74

Solution.

(a) Note that

0.20 P (A ∩ D)
P (A) = 0.61 6= = = P (A|D),
0.30 P (D)
so A and D are not independent.
(b) We have
0.09 P (B ∩ D)
P (B) = 0.3 = = = P (B|D),
0.30 P (D)
so B and D are independent.
(c) We have
0.01 P (C ∩ D)
P (C) = 0.09 6= = = P (C|D),
0.30 P (D)
so C and D are not independent.

10. (10 points) Exercise 2.76

Solution. Let D and A represent the event of complaints and of plumber A having
done the job, respectively. According to the statement, P (D) = 0.1 and P (A) = 0.4.
Further, half the complaints dealt with plumber A. In other words, if there was
dissatisfaction, then there was a 50% chance the plumber A did the job. i.e.,

P (A|D) = 0.5.
 (a) We want the probability of dissatisfaction given plumber A did the plumbing job,
P (D|A). Using the definition of conditional probabilities, we get

P (D|A) = P (D ∩ A)/P (A) = P (A|D)P (D)/P (A).

Plugging in numbers, we get

P (D|A) = 0.5 · 0.1/0.4 = 0.05/0.4 = 1/8 = 0.125

(b) Now we want P (D̄|A). There are two different ways to get this probability: the
long way and the short way.
The long way is to note that P (A) = P (A ∩ D) + P (A ∩ D̄) by Axiom 3 of
probability and use:

P (D̄ ∩ A) P (A) − P (D ∩ A)
P (D̄|A) = = .
P (A) P (A)

In part (a), we got P (D∩A) = P (A|D)P (D) = 0.05. Hence, plugging in numbers,
we get
0.4 − 0.05 0.35 7
P (D̄|A) = = = = 0.875.
0.4 0.4 8
The short way is to extend Axiom 3 to conditional probabilities:

P (D̄|A) = 1 − P (D|A) = 1 − 0.125 = 0.875

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