Mathematical Modelling

MATHEMATICAL MODELLING
• What is Mathematical Modelling?
• Why study mathematical modelling?
• What is a Mathematical Model?
• Mathematical modelling provides a method for solving problems
mathematically
• A mathematical model is a mathematical representation of the
relationship between two or more variables relevant to a given
situation or problem .
• Finding mathematical models is a skill that we hope you will
develop in this course.
 CYCLE OF THE MODELLING PROCESS
• Blum and Ferri [Mathematical Modelling: Can It Be Taught and Learnt?] showed the cycle
of the modelling process in 7 steps given below in order to help the cognitive analysis of
the modeling situations, which they also used in their projects. Mathematical expression of
a problem and the process of solving this problem by putting real life aside are shown in a
cyclic manner in these steps.
1. Understanding the situation (problem)
2. Simplifying/structuring
3. Mathematizing
4. Mathematical working
5. Interpretation
6. Verification
7. Presentation
• According to Galbraith (1989), there are 3 different teaching approaches in
modelling. These are as follows:
1) "General application approach" focuses on a certain application. Generally, the
teacher introduces the model and the students use the model in a controlled
manner. This approach is mostly used in secondary schools and it includes 4th
(calculation, solving inequalities etc.) and 5th steps (real results in the daily life
are interpreted and verified) of the modeling process.
2) "Structure modeling approach" uses the real life situations and covers all the
stages of the modeling process form the 1st stage (the problem situation
should be understood by the student) to the 7th stage (the possible solutions
of the problem are presented). The teacher makes an important effort to
make mathematical model used in the 3rd stage (mathematizing process).
3) "Open modeling approach". In this approach, students work with the limited
help of the teacher about the problem that is given because teacher does not
have to control the students. This approach is not used widely.
 Example of Mathematical Models

1. “The Giant's Shoe” - There is a pair of shoes in a sport center in the Philippines. According
to Guinness Book of the World Records, it is the largest shoe of the world with the width of
2.37 m and the length of 5.29 m. What is the height of the giant that could actually wear
these shoes?
2. “Obesity Problem" - Mother and father of Can, who is an 8th grade student, works in a
private company. His parents go to work early in the morning and come back late in the
evening. For this reason, Can does not have the habit of proper nutrition; he turns to
convenience food and high calorie foods. As a result of this, he started gaining weight
rapidly. Can, who is 1.60 m tall, comes to weigh 82 kg. Recognizing this situation, his
mother took Can to a dietitian. Dietitian said that Can is classified as an obese person.
Dietitian suggested an exercise program to Can, which he will apply without changing the
amounts of daily calories he takes. According to this, Can will start with an exercise of 20
minutes per day and 3 days a week and he will continue to do the exercises by increasing
the time of exercises 5 minutes each week. He will choose one exercise from the table
below and he will not change his choice.
The table showing which exercise corresponds to how many calories is given below;

Develop a model that will enable Can to find out how many weeks it will take him to
reach the weight he aims for according to the activity he chooses and to help him, write a
letter explaining this in detail.
The Importance of Mathematical Modeling and Difficulty in Teaching it
• Mathematical models and modeling exist all around us, we especially encounter them in
technological devices. It is necessary to form modeling qualifications of the students while
preparing them as citizens responsible for society and become part of society. More
generally, mathematical modelling;
1. Helps students to understand the world better,
2. Supports mathematical learning (motivation, concept formation, giving meanings etc.)
3. Ensures developing various mathematical qualifications and accurate attitudes.
4. Provides sufficient support for the framework of mathematics.
• A student develops mathematical knowledge by examining a model appropriate for this
knowledge, that is to say, he rebuilds it. Models can be used for three different purposes in
mathematics teaching.
1. To ensure that students develop new concepts and relations, which is especially useful in
the introduction stage of a new unit.
2. To help students establish relations between concepts and symbols; a student who has
learned concepts and rules can establish the relations between those by using models.
3. To measure the understanding level of students; students show the mathematical
relations by meddling with the objects
 Modelling with data
• One of the simplest mathematical models is a linear one
which represents the relation between two variables by
a straight line graph.
• In some cases the variables given in the problem satisfy a
linear relation ,but in other situations we might have to
transform the variables to obtain a straight line graph.
• For example, a common method of transformation is the
use of logarithms. If the variables 𝑥 and 𝑦 satisfy a power
law relation, 𝑦 = 𝑎𝑏 𝑥 , then a graph of 𝑦 against 𝑥 will
produce a curve as shown in Figure A.
 Figure A: Graph of 𝒚 against 𝒙 Figure B: Graph of 𝐥𝐨𝐠 𝒚 against 𝒙

• However, taking logarithms of each side gives

log 𝑦 = log 𝑎 + 𝑥 log 𝑏 and a graph of log 𝑦 against
𝑥 will give a straight line (as in Figure B).From the
properties of the second graph we can estimate the
values of 𝑎 and 𝑏.
Example 1: Modelling 'the greenhouse effect‘
The burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil adds carbon dioxide to
the atmosphere around the earth. This may be partly removed by
biological reactions, but the concentration of carbon dioxide is
gradually increasing. This increase leads to a rise in the average
temperature of the earth. Table 1 shows this temperature rise over
the one hundred year period up to 1980.

Table 1: The temperature rise of the earth over 100 years

If the average temperature of the earth rises by about
another 6℃ from the 1980 value this would have a
dramatic effect on the polar ice caps, winter temperature
etc. As the polar ice caps melt, there could be massive
floods and a lot of land mass would be submerged.
Find a model of the above data and use it to predict when
the earth's temperature will be 7℃ above its 1860 value.

Solution:
Let 𝑇 be the temperature rise of the earth above the 1860
figure and 𝑛 be the year. Then by graphing,
Figure C: Graph of 𝑻 against 𝒏
The graph of 𝑇 against 𝑛 is clearly not linear. However the
points look close to a smooth curve passing through the origin.
So we try to 'straighten the curve' by using logarithms. For
example, if we plot log 𝑇 against 𝑛 we do indeed obtain a
straight line graph through most of the data. The points at the
lower end do not fit this straight line very well. (A simple
explanation is that the data on temperature rise is correct to
two decimal places. Clearly at the lower end the
maximum percentage error in the data is much larger than that
elsewhere. The temperature rise of 0.01 could be anything
between 0.005 and 0.015 giving a maximum
percentage error of 50%. However the maximum percentage
error for a temperature rise of 0.24 is 2.5%. By graphing log 𝑇
against 𝑛, we can now predict when the temperature of the
earth will be 7°𝐶 above the 1860 value.
 Figure D: Graph of log 𝑻 against 𝒏
Drawing a horizontal line through the value log 7, we
find a value for 𝑛 as 2078.∎
Example 2: World Record for the Mile

The table in the next slide shows the world record for
the mile in minutes and seconds between 1913 and
1986. Athletes continue to run the mile faster and
faster as the years go by, but a mile in one minute,
say, would seem to be impossible. Using the data
estimate when it is likely that the mile could be run in
3 minutes 40 seconds.
Solution:
If we draw a graph to represent the data in this problem then it is
surprising how close to a straight line are the data points
The graph is quite reasonably linear and from it we can predict that a
mile run in 3 minutes 40 seconds could be achieved around the year
2000. We can continue the prediction process to suggest that a 3
minute 30 second mile will be run in about 30 years time in the year
2028. (To make these predictions we are assuming that the linear
model holds true outside of the given data points). ∎
• This method of solving real problems is fairly straightforward. We
collect (or are given) data associated with a physical situation and
use the data to draw a graph to represent the situation. Suppose
that we label the variables 𝑥 and 𝑦. We usually try one of three
graphs in attempting to get a straight line between the variables:
• a graph of the variables, 𝑦 against 𝑥,
• a graph of the logarithm of one variable against the other
• a graph of the logarithm of one variable (log 𝑦) against the
logarithm of the other log 𝑥
• The graph that we have drawn is an example of a mathematical
model. We call use the graph to obtain a relation in symbols. For
instance in Example 2, the equation, t = 255 − 0.38𝑇, where 𝑡 is
the time in seconds and 𝑇 is the number of years beyond 1910 is a
good fit to the straight line graph. Then the equation is another
example of a mathematical model.
• In this way we are translating the problem from the real world
situation to the rules and properties of the world of mathematics
sometimes called the mathematical world. When the problem
solving process is data driven as in Examples 1 and 2 we call the
• model an empirical model and the process of finding an empirical
model is called empirical modelling.
 Modelling from Theory
• The previous examples are showing the problem solving
process based on formulating data-driven models and we
discussed some of the drawbacks when making
predictions based on this approach .
• The next three examples are intended to help you to gain
an understanding of problem solving that uses a more
theoretical approach.
• In each case notice how the data is used after the model is
formed to help to check the validity of the model.
Example 1: The need for a pedestrian crossing
As a pedestrian there are many times in a day that you have to cross a
road. For some roads, which do not carry much traffic you wait for a
gap between cars and then cross; for more busy roads you are advised
to cross at a zebra or pelican crossing. The local council has to decide
whether and when to install controlled crossings on certain roads.
This problem investigates road crossing strategies. Formulate a
mathematical model for crossing a one-way street so that a
pedestrian can cross the road safely. Use your model to decide under
what conditions a local council decides to install a pedestrian crossing.
Solution:
For a simple mathematical model consider the following assumptions
and simplifications:
1. the road is one-way, a single carriageway and straight with no
obstructions for the positioning of a pedestrian crossing,
2. the speed of the traffic is constant and equal to the road speed
limit,
3. the density of the traffic is constant,
4. the pedestrians walk across the road at a constant speed.

The first statement ensures that when we have a simple mathematical

model (based on assumptions 2, 3 and 4) the Local Council can install a
pedestrian crossing without considering the environment. To formulate
a mathematical model we need to introduce symbols to represent the
physical quantities. The table shows this
information:

Physical quantity Symbols Units

Width of the road 𝑤 Meter

Speed of the
𝑣 Meter per second
pedestrians
Time interval between
𝑇 Seconds
the traffic
The time for a pedestrian to cross the road is 𝑤/𝑣 and the time
between two road vehicles is 𝑇. A simple model in words is
𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝑐𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑡𝑕𝑒 𝑟𝑜𝑎𝑑 < 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑣𝑒𝑕𝑖𝑐𝑙𝑒𝑠
Then in symbol we have ,
𝑤
<𝑇
𝑣
This is a condition for the pedestrians to cross the road safely. If we
reverse the inequality then we have a simple condition for the need of
a pedestrian crossing. ∎

• To get a feel for the values in this inequality we need some data.
• For the vehicle data suppose that the road is in a 30 𝑚𝑝𝑕 (13.3 𝑚/
𝑠) speed limit area and the vehicles travel at the safe distance
recommended by the Highway Code (23 𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑠). With these
values the time interval between the vehicles is 23/13.3 =
1.73 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑠.
• For the pedestrians suppose that their speed is 4 𝑚𝑝𝑕 (1.77 𝑚/
𝑠) and the width of a single carriageway is 3 𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑠. The value of
𝑤/𝑣 is then 3/1.77 = 1.69 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑠.
• With this data the advice to the council might be not to install a
pedestrian crossing. However, the model is very simple and subject
to many criticisms. For example
1. the traffic is unlikely to be evenly spaced at the Highway code
recommended distance;
2. a safety margin of 0.04 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑠 is not really realistic;
3. the model suggests that you can either cross or not cross which is
not realistic, the question of how long to wait does not enter the
problem;
4. 4 𝑚𝑝𝑕 is quite a fast walking speed, especially for elderly people.
Example 2: Icing Cakes
A wedding cake is to be baked in a square cake tin and will have a
volume (before icing) of 4000 cm 3 . Determine the dimensions of the
cake which will give the minimum surface area for icing (i.e. the top
and the four sides). Find the dimensions if the cake is baked in a
circular tin.
Solution:
The assumptions and simplifications for this problem are quite
straightforward and will lead to the 'perfect cuboid or cylindrical
cake'.
1. The cake fills the tin exactly after baking and does not crumble or
stick to the sides;
2. each cake is perfectly flat on top and bottom so that it does not
rise above the top of the cake tin;
3. the mixture of volume 4000 𝑐𝑚3 includes any air bubbles etc.;
4. the marzipan goes on the cake before the icing.
Case 1; Consider the square cake tin first. Let the sides of the cake
have length 𝑥 𝑐𝑚 and the depth of the cake have length 𝑦 𝑐𝑚.
The volume of mixture in the tin is
𝑉 = 𝑥 2 𝑦 = 4000
and the surface area to be marzipanned and iced is
𝑆 = 𝑥 2 + 4𝑥𝑦
Eliminating 𝑦 between these two equations gives
2 16000
𝑆=𝑥 +
𝑥
The mathematical problem is to find the value of 𝑥 which gives the
minimum value for 𝑆. There are several ways to do this, for example
• By calculus, using differentiation;
• Drawing a graph using a calculator or spreadsheet.
Whichever method you prefer, the minimum value of 𝑆(= 1200𝑎𝑚2 )
occurs when 𝑥 = 20 𝑐𝑚 and then 𝑦 = 10 𝑐𝑚.
The dimensions of a square cake with minimum surface area for icing
is 20 𝑐𝑚 × 20 𝑐𝑚 × 10 𝑐𝑚.
2. Consider the circular cake tin. Let the radius of the cake be 𝑟 𝑐𝑚 and
the depth of the cake be 𝑦 𝑐𝑚.
The volume of mixture in the tin is
𝑉 = 𝜋𝑟 2 𝑦 = 4000
and the surface area to be marzipanned and iced is
8000
𝑆 = 𝜋𝑟 2 +
𝑟
The minimum value of 𝑆 is given by 𝑟 = 𝑦 = 10,84 𝑐𝑚.∎

Example 3: Most Economical Size

A company is going to make its own boxes! It has been decided the box
should hold 0.02𝑚3. The box should have a square base, and double
thickness top and bottom. Cardboard costs $0.30 per square meter.
It is up to you to decide the most economical size.
Solution:
Consider the figure,
The base is square, so we will just use "w" for both lengths. The box
has 4 sides, and double tops and bottoms. The box shape could be cut
out like this (see the figure below)

Ignoring thickness for this model: 𝑉𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑒 = 𝑤 × 𝑤 × 𝑕 = 𝑤2𝑕

And we are told that the volume should be 0.02𝑚3: 𝑤2𝑕 = 0.02
Areas: 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑕𝑒 4 𝑆𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑠 = 4 × 𝑤 × 𝑕 = 4𝑤𝑕
𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑜𝑓 𝐷𝑜𝑢𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑇𝑜𝑝𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 = 4 × 𝑤 × 𝑤 = 4𝑤2
Total cardboard needed: 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑜𝑓 𝐶𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑏𝑜𝑎𝑟𝑑 = 4𝑤𝑕 + 4𝑤2
We want a single formula for cost:
𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 = $0.30 × 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑜𝑓 𝐶𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑏𝑜𝑎𝑟𝑑
= $0.30 × (4𝑤𝑕 + 4𝑤2)
Because width and height are already related by the volume:
𝑉𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑒 = 𝑤2𝑕 = 0.02
This implies that 𝑕 = 0.02/𝑤2 and we get
𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 = $0.30 × (4𝑤 × 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐/𝒘𝟐 + 4𝑤2)
𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 = $0.30 × (0.08/𝑤 + 4𝑤2)
Now, let us plot the equation above to see what value of 𝑤 that will
give as the smallest cost,
By observing the graph, we see that we can that the minimum cost at
(𝟎. 𝟐𝟐, 𝟎. 𝟏𝟕). In other words:
• 𝑤𝑕𝑒𝑛 𝑡𝑕𝑒 𝑤𝑖𝑑𝑡𝑕 𝑖𝑠 𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑡 𝟎. 𝟐𝟐 𝒎 (𝑥 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒),
• 𝑡𝑕𝑒 𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑡 $𝟎. 𝟏𝟕 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑏𝑜𝑥 (𝑦 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒).
In fact, looking at the graph, the width could be anywhere between
0.20 and 0.24 without affecting the minimum cost very much.

Using this mathematical model you can now recommend:

1. 𝑊𝑖𝑑𝑡𝑕 = 0.22 𝑚
2. 𝐻𝑒𝑖𝑔𝑕𝑡 = 0.02/𝑤2 = 0.02/0.222 = 0.413 𝑚
3. 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 = $0.30 × (0.08/𝑤 + 4𝑤2) = $0.30 × (0.08/0.22 +
4 × 0.222) = $0.167
But any width between 0.20 𝑚 and 0.24 𝑚 is fine. ∎
• The theoretical problem solving method is much more than just drawing
graphs or solving equations. It contains the following steps:
• understand the problem
• identify the important features
• make assumptions and simplifications
• define variables
• use sub-models
• establish relationships between variables
• solve the equations
• interpret and validate the model (i.e. question the results of the
model)
• make improvements to the model
• explain the outcome
• The process of using these steps to solve a real world problem is called
mathematical modelling. The process has essentially three phases; we
formulate the mathematical model by describing or representing the real
world in terms of mathematical structures (such as graphs, equations,
inequalities, lising carefully the assumptions we make).
• We solve any equations that may occur . Then we use appropriate data
to test the goodness of the model. In doing this we have interpreted the
results of the mathematical analysis and criticized the model hopefully
suggesting improvements to the model. This process is illustrated below.
 Modelling Population Growth
• The aim of this topic is to see modelling at work through a study of
population growth. The key activities in the modelling process are
summarised in thefollowing list.
1. Understanding the Problem
• decide what aspect of the problem to investigate
• collect and analyse some data appropriate to the problem
2. Choosing Variables
• 'brainstorm' the situation or problem to form a feature list
• refine and sort your list into the key features
• for the key features define variables to be used in your model
3. Set up a mathematical model
• try to describe the situation or problem as a word model
• write your word model in symbols using the defined variables
• state word model and mathematical model, remember that a simple
model is easier to work with initially and a simple model can often
bring an insight into the situation or problem that may help in your
later improvements.
4. Formulate and solve the mathematical problem
• often a mathematical modelling activity leads to the setting up and
solution of a mathematical problem, at this stage you should keep to
familiar mathematical territory.
5. Interpret the solution
• describe the solution in words, is there qualitative agreement
between the outcome of your model and the situation being
considered
• decide what data you need to validate your model and collect them.
6. Compare with reality
• test the outcomes of your model with appropriate data
• criticize your model, in particular, look back at your simplifying
assumptions.
7. Improve the model
• revise your simplifying assumptions
• formulate a revised model
• repeat the processes of solving, interpreting and validating.
8. Report on your modelling activity
• prepare a report describing the problem and its outcomes, this might be
in the form of a poster, a written report or an oral presentation.

Note how the list suggests that mathematical modelling is an iterative process
in that you are going round a loop, hopefully improving your model during each
cycle. The following diagram emphasizes the cyclic approach to modelling.
Example 1: A rare species of bird is about to be introduced onto one of the Isles of
SciIIy. Formulate a mathematical model which describes the growth of the
population of the species.
Solution:
We will consider the following important features in formulating our mathematical
model;
• initial number of birds
• size of the island
• availability of food
• numbers of males and females
• age distribution of birds
• life-span of birds
• types of predators
• no. of eggs per female
• population of predators
• diseases
• proneness of birds to fight
• family size
• role of unattached males
• will birds emigrate
• immigration of birds
• human exploitation
This list is refined and sorted into the following headings:
a. features affecting births
• initial number of birds
• numbers of males and females
• age distribution of birds
• life-span of birds
• no. of eggs per female
b. features affecting deaths
• age distribution of birds
• life-span of birds
• types of predators
• population of predators
• Diseases
• proneness of birds to fight
• family size
• human exploitation
c. features affecting food
• size of the island
• availability of food
• family size
d. emigration and immigration
• role of unattached males
• will birds emigrate
• immigration of birds
Now we take what might seem as a big step. Consider the four headings. They
suggest the following equation in words:

Suppose that 𝑃𝑛 denotes the size of the population 𝑛 years after the birds were
introduced on to the island so that the increase in population in year 𝑛 + 1 is
𝑃𝑛+1 − 𝑃𝑛 . Let 𝐵𝑛 and 𝐷𝑛 be number of births and death respectively in year 𝑛 + 1.
The word model can now be written in symbols as
𝑃𝑛+1 − 𝑃𝑛 = 𝐵𝑛 − 𝐷𝑛
This is a simple mathematical model which assumes no immigration and no
emigration. ∎

The above can be improved by expressing the number of births and deaths in terms
of population size and/or time. There could be many ways forward from here, but
we'll keep it simple by making the following assumptions:
1. the annual number of births is proportional to the size of the population,
2. the annual number of deaths is proportional to the size of the population.
In symbols we have
𝐵𝑛 = 𝑏𝑃𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐷𝑛 = 𝑑𝑃𝑛
where 𝑏 and 𝑑 are constants, called the proportionate birth rate and the
proportionate death rate respectively.
Hence the mathematical model for the bird population is
𝑃𝑛+1 − 𝑃𝑛 = 𝑏𝑃𝑛 − 𝑑𝑃𝑛 = (𝑏 − 𝑑)𝑃𝑛
𝑃 −𝑃
The quantity 𝑛+1 𝑛 is the proportionate growth rate. Moreover tThe model for
𝑃𝑛
population growth 𝑃𝑛+1 − 𝑃𝑛 = (𝑏 − 𝑑)𝑃𝑛 is an example of a recurrence relation.

Example 2. In May 1980 a small herd of 50 deer was introduced into a country park.
Observations during the past few years suggest that each year the average breeding
success of a female deer is 2 young reared to maturity, while, during each year 5% of
the population at the start of the period die.
a. Use the following assumptions
1. the annual number of births is proportional to the size of the population,
2. the annual number of deaths is proportional to the size of the population.
to formulate a mathematical model describing the population growth.
b. Use a calculator or spreadsheet to find the size of the herd each year between
1980 and 1990.
c. How many deer should be killed each year so that the landowner can maintain a
herd size of 200 deer.
Solution:
a. Let 𝑃𝑛 is the size of the population of deer 𝑛 years after May 1980.Assume that
half of the population is female and each female has 2 young so that the number of
births is 𝑃𝑛 per year. Then our model is given by
𝑃𝑛+1 − 𝑃𝑛 = 𝑃𝑛 − 0.05𝑃𝑛
𝑃𝑛+1 = 1.95𝑃𝑛

b.
Year
(May) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

Size of
50 97 189 368 717 1398 2726 5315 10364 20209 39407
herd

c. 168 should be killed at the end of 1983 and then 190 should be killed each year.
Example 3: In a population of birds the proportionate birth rate and the
proportionate death rate are both constant, being 0.45 per year and 0.65
per year respectively.
Immigration occurs at a constant rate of 2000 birds per year and emigration
at a constant rate of 1000 per year.
a. Use these assumptions to formulate a recurrence relation to model the
population.
b. Without solving the equation describe the long-term behaviour of the
population in the two cases when the initial population is 3000 or
8000.
Solution:
a. With the assumptions above and letting 𝑟𝑖 as rate of immigration and 𝑟𝑒
as rate of emigration then our model is,
𝑃𝑛+1 − 𝑃𝑛 = 𝑏 − 𝑑 𝑃𝑛 + 𝑟𝑖 − 𝑟𝑒
𝑃𝑛+1 − 𝑃𝑛 = 0.45 − 0.65 𝑃𝑛 + 2000 − 1000
𝑃𝑛+1 = 0.8𝑃𝑛 + 1000
b. Equilibrium population when 𝑃𝑛+1 − 𝑃𝑛 = 0 𝑖. 𝑒 𝑃𝑛 = 5000 birds. It means
for 𝑃0 = 3000 population increases to 5000 and 𝑃0 = 8000 population
decreases to 5000.