MACHINE LEARNING

PROJECT

RAGHUL HARISH
Problem 1:
You are hired by one of the leading news channel CNBE who wants to analyse recent elections.
This survey was conducted on 1525 voters with 9 variables. You have to build a model, to
predict which party a voter will vote for on the basis of the given information, to create an exit
poll that will help in predicting overall win and seats covered by a particular party.
Dataset for Problem: Election_Data.xlsx

Data Ingestion:
1. Read the dataset. Do the descriptive statistics and do null value condition
check. Write an inference on it.
Exploratory Data Analysis

Shape of the dataset,

The Election dataset have 1525 rows and 10 columns.

Below are the variables and their data types,
All the variables except vote and gender are int64 datatypes.

But when looking at the values in the dataset for the other variables, they all look like categorical
columns except age.

Removing the unwanted variable “Unnamed : 0”, which is not giving a meaningful information. And
displaying the head of the Election dataset.

From the below snippet it is evident that the dataset does not have null values.
The dataset has few duplicates and removing them is the best choice as duplicates does not add any
value.

Below snippet also shows the shape of dataset after removing the duplicates.

Descriptive Statistics for the dataset

Converting the necessary variables to object as it is meant to be. Because these variables have
values that are numeric but are a categorical column.

Checking the descriptive statistic of the dataset again,

From the above snippet we can come to a conclusion that the dataset has only one integer
column which is ’age’
The mean and median for the only integer column ‘age’ is almost same indicating the column
is normally distributed.
‘vote’ have two unique values Labour and Conservative, which is also a dependent variable.
‘gender’ has two unique values male and female.
Rest all the columns has object variables with ‘Europe’ being highest having 11 unique
values.

2. Perform Univariate and Bivariate Analysis. Do exploratory data

analysis. Check for Outliers.
Univariate Analysis and Outlier Check

‘age’ is the only integer variable and it is not having outliers. Also, the dist. plot shows that
the variable is normally distributed.
Frequency distribution of the categorical variables.
votes are large in number for ‘Labour’.
‘female’ voters large in number than ‘male’

Bivariate Analysis
Labour gets the highest voting from both female and male voters.
Almost in all the categories Labour is getting the maximum votes.
Conservative gets a little bit high votes from Europe ‘11’.
From the above we could see people who vote Conservative are the people who are older.
In variable Europe ‘1’ are older people.
Pair Plot

Heat Map
There is no correlation between the variables.
Data Preparation:
1. Encode the data (having string values) for Modelling. Is Scaling
necessary here or not? Data Split: Split the data into train and test (70:30).
Encoding the dataset
The variables ‘vote’ and ‘gender’ have string values. Converting them into numeric values
for modelling,
Scaling
We are not going to scale the data for Logistic regression, LDA and Naive Baye’s models as
it is not necessary.
But in case of KNN it is necessary to scale the data, as it a distance-based algorithm
(typically based on Euclidean distance). Scaling the data gives similar weightage to all the
variables.
Splitting the data into train and test

Modelling:
1. Logistic Regression.
Applying Logistic Regression and fitting the training data
Predicting train and test,

Train and Test accuracy,

Confusion matrix and Classification report for Train,

Confusion matrix and Classification report for Test,

The model is not overfitting or underfitting. Training and Testing results shows that the
model is excellent with good precision and recall values.

LDA (linear discriminant analysis).

Applying LDA and fitting the training data

Predicting train and test,

Train and Test accuracy,

Confusion matrix and Classification report for Train,

Confusion matrix and Classification report for Test,

Training and Testing results shows that the model is excellent with good precision and recall
values.
The LDA model is better than Logistic regression with better Test accuracy and recall values.

2. KNN Model.
Scaling the dataset as it is required because KNN is a distance-based algorithm,
Applying KNN and fitting the training data

Predicting train and test,

Train and Test accuracy,

Confusion matrix and Classification report for Train,

Confusion matrix and Classification report for Test,

Training and Testing results shows that the model is excellent with good precision and recall
values.
This KNN model have good accuracy and recall values.

Naive Bayes.
Importing GaussianNB from sklearn and applying NB model
Fitting the training data

Predicting train and test,

Train and Test accuracy,

Confusion matrix and Classification report for Train,

Confusion matrix and Classification report for Test,

Training and Testing results shows that the model neither overfitting nor underfitting.
The Naive Bayes model also performs well with better accuracy and recall values.
Even though NB and KNN have same Train and Test accuracy. Based on their recall
value in test dataset it is evident that KNN performs better than Naive Bayes.

3. Model Tuning, Bagging (Random Forest should be applied for Bagging)

and Boosting.
Using GridSearchCV and tuning the model which helps us in finding the best parameters for
the model,
Predicting the Train and test,

Applying KNN model and using the hyperparameter Leaf size and n_neighbour to estimate
the model parameters,
Basic Decision Tree classifier with gini index and random state of 1

Using Bagging to improve the performance of the model.

Applying the model and predicting the train and test data,
Applying Ada Boosting model and predicting the train and test,

Applying Gradient Boosting model with random state 1 and predicting the dependent
variable,

Applying Random forest, tuning the model to get the best parameters.
The best parameters are,

Applying Bagging on a Random forest model to check its performance and predicting the train and
test,

4. Performance Metrics: Check the performance of Predictions on Train and

Test sets using Accuracy, Confusion Matrix, Plot ROC curve and get
ROC_AUC score for each model. Final Model: Compare the models and
write inference which model is best/optimized.
Tuned Logistic Regression
LR model performs good with 83% accuracy for both train and test.
Confusion Matrix and Classification report - Train
Confusion Matrix and Classification report - Test

The Logistic Regression model performs well with good Precision, recall and f1 score values.

Tuned KNN
KNN model is better than LR model performs good train accuracy of 84%, but the test is 83%,
which is also good.
The precision, recall and f1 score is the same as Logistic regression.
Confusion Matrix and Classification report - Train
Confusion Matrix and Classification report - Test

Decision Tree
DT model is overfitted with 100% train accuracy and 80% test accuracy.
Statistical 10% + or – is acceptable, but here it is over 10%. Hence, OVERFITTING
Confusion Matrix and Classification report - Train

Confusion Matrix and Classification report -Test

Decision Tree Pruned
Pruning/tuning DT with gini index and max depth = 4, and the model performance is better
And not overfitting with 84% train accuracy and 79% test accuracy.

Ensemble Technique - Bagging (DT used)

DT is used as a base estimator for bagging. The model is OVERFITTING.

Confusion Matrix and Classification report - Train

Confusion Matrix and Classification report - Test
Ada Boosting
Applying Ada Boosting model and predicting the train and test.
The train and test accuracy are 84% and 82% respecting. We have seen models that performs
better than this.

Confusion Matrix and Classification report - Train

Confusion Matrix and Classification report - Test
Gradient Boosting
Gradient Boosting model performs the best with 89% train accuracy and with 83% test
accuracy. The precision, recall and f1 score is also good.

Confusion Matrix and Classification report - Train

Confusion Matrix and Classification report - Test
Random Forest
Random forest model’s train and test accuracy scores.

Random Forest - Bagging

RF model with bagging applied, performs similar to the normal RF as they are not different.
The model has good recall and precision also,

Confusion Matrix and Classification report - Train

Confusion Matrix and Classification report - Test
Model Comparison and Best Model
Gradient Boosting model performs the best with 89% train accuracy. And also have 91%
precision and 94% recall which is better than any other models that we have performed in
here with the Election dataset.

Rest all the models are more or less have same accuracy of 84%
Inference:
1. Based on these predictions, what are the insights?
The important variable in predicting the dependent variables are
‘Hague’ and ‘Blair’

These are the ratings that the people gave to the Leaders of the ‘Labour’ and ‘Conservative’
party.

As the frequency distribution suggests most of the people gave 4 stars to ‘Blair’ and there are larger
number of people gave 2 stars to ‘Hague’ which made an impact in the dependent variable ‘vote’
Problem 2:
In this particular project, we are going to work on the inaugural corpora from the nltk in Python.
We will be looking at the following speeches of the Presidents of the United States of America:
1. President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1941
2. President John F. Kennedy in 1961
3. President Richard Nixon in 1973

2.1 Find the number of characters, words and sentences for the mentioned
documents.
(Hint: use .words(), .raw(), .sent() for extracting counts)

President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s speech have 7571 Characters (including spaces) and 1360
words.
President John F. Kennedy’s Speech have 7618 Characters (including spaces) and 1390
words.
President Richard Nixon’s Speech have 9991 Characters (including spaces) and 1819 words.
President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s speech and President Richard Nixon’s Speech have 68
Sentences and,
President John F. Kennedy’s Speech have 52 Sentences.

2.2 Remove all the stop words from all the three speeches.

Converting all the character to lower case and removing all the punctuations.
Counting the number of stop words and removing them.

Word count after removing all the stop words.

All the stop words have been removed from all the three speeches.

2.3 Which word occurs the most number of times in his inaugural address
for each president? Mention the top three words. (after removing the stop
words)
In the below snippets we could see the words that occurred most number of times in their
inaugural address.

Removing the additional stop words from the above snippets and when checking the
frequency
Most frequently used words from President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s speech are
• Nation
• Democracy
• Spirit

Most frequently used words from President Richard Nixon’s Speech are
• Peace
• World
• New
• America
Most frequently used words from President John F. Kennedy’s Speech are
• World
• New
• Pledge
• Power
2.4 Plot the word cloud of each of the speeches of the variable. (after
removing the stop words)
Word Cloud for President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s speech (after cleaning)!!
Word Cloud for President John F. Kennedy’s Speech (after cleaning)!!
Word Cloud for President Richard Nixon’s Speech (after cleaning)!!