JPM Reliance Industries 2022-07-20 4150945
JPM Reliance Industries 2022-07-20 4150945
JPM Reliance Industries 2022-07-20 4150945
20 July 2022
Overweight
Reliance Industries Ltd RELI.BO, RIL IN
Price: Rs2,437.10
With SEZ removed from export taxes, RIL's refining 19 Jul 2022
business broadly back to normal, we expect GRMs to Price Target: Rs3,170.00
improve PT End Date: 30 Jun 2023
The removal of SEZ from the export taxes in our view normalizes RIL's Metals & Mining/ Oil & Gas
refinery operations and removes the earnings risk on the O2C business that Pinakin Parekh, CFA AC
had built post the imposition of the taxes. While benchmark GRMs have (91-22) 6157-3588
come off sharply in the last two weeks, given underlying tight balances [email protected]
and still steady demand, we expect benchmark GRMs to improve from Bloomberg JPMA PAREKH <GO>
Among the many tax cuts the SEZ removal from export taxes is the [email protected]
J.P. Morgan India Private Limited
most positive for RIL: Post the imposition of the windfall taxes, in its
first revision, the government has lowered taxes imposed on diesel/ATF
by $6/4/bbl to $20/8/bbl, with complete removal of taxes on gasoline.
Importantly the government has also removed the windfall export taxes
from the SEZ refineries. We believe, the majority of the company’s
product exports are from its Jamnagar-SEZ unit.
www.jpmorganmarkets.com
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of [email protected].
Pinakin Parekh, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research
(91-22) 6157-3588 20 July 2022
[email protected]
Investment Thesis
We are OW based on: a) a global view of a strong refining environment though we build in a decline in product cracks from
current levels, and b) RIL's non Energy business valuations continuing to hold up. We value O2C at an EV of $83bn, and
value Retail at $121bn with a Jio Mart value of $40bn. We also assign a 2x investment value for the proposed green
energy/renewable investment. We do not build in any holding company discount at this point.
In our view, RIL is among the best positioned refiners globally in the current environment of strong product cracks. RIL’s
refining strength comes from: 1) diesel-heavy production slate; 2) export-focused refineries; and, 3) its ability to purchase
and process ‘arbitrage barrels’, which have a discount v/s benchmark oil.
Valuation
Our SOTP-based June-23 PT of Rs3,170 is based on FY24E earnings, as follows:
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Reliance Industries Ltd.
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Coverage Universe: Parekh, Pinakin: ACC Limited (ACC.NS), Ambuja Cements Limited (ABUJ.NS), Bharat Petroleum Corporation
(BPCL) (BPCL.NS), Coal India (COAL.NS), Dalmia Bharat (DALB.NS), GAIL India Ltd (GAIL.NS), Grasim Industries Ltd
(GRAS.NS), Hindalco Industries (HALC.NS), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) (HPCL.NS), Hindustan Zinc Limited
(HZNC.NS), Indian Oil Corporation (IOC.NS), JSW Steel (JSTL.NS), NMDC (NMDC.NS), National Aluminium Co Ltd (NALU.NS),
Nuvoco Vistas Corporation (NUVOCO.NS), Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC.NS), Petronet LNG Ltd. (PLNG.NS), Reliance
Industries Ltd (RELI.BO), Shree Cement (SHCM.NS), Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL.NS), Tata Steel Ltd (TISC.NS), UltraTech
Cement Ltd (ULTC.NS), Vedanta Limited (VDAN.NS)
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