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BBS Assignment 2 Final

1) The document contains 6 questions regarding probability calculations. It provides data in tables and formulas to calculate probabilities of events, means, variances, and other statistics. 2) For question 1, it calculates probabilities of farmers growing various crops. It finds that 40% of farmers grow oranges or lemons, and that 75% of orange farmers also grow lemons. 3) Question 6 calculates statistics like the probability of calls being between 1-3, the expected number of calls, variance, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation based on a probability distribution of number of calls.

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Spencer Kanjera
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115 views5 pages

BBS Assignment 2 Final

1) The document contains 6 questions regarding probability calculations. It provides data in tables and formulas to calculate probabilities of events, means, variances, and other statistics. 2) For question 1, it calculates probabilities of farmers growing various crops. It finds that 40% of farmers grow oranges or lemons, and that 75% of orange farmers also grow lemons. 3) Question 6 calculates statistics like the probability of calls being between 1-3, the expected number of calls, variance, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation based on a probability distribution of number of calls.

Uploaded by

Spencer Kanjera
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Question 1

Oranges only – 30% = 0.3


Lemons only – 10% = 0.1
Both oranges and lemons – 4%= 0.04

1.1) What proportion of farmers in the community grow either oranges or lemons?

Oranges or lemons = 30% + 10% = 40%

Proportion of farmers who grow either oranges or lemons is 40%

1.2) If a farmer is chosen randomly from these in the community, what is the probability that he
grows neither oranges nor lemons?

Neither oranges nor lemons = 1 – P(oranges or lemons) = 1 – 0.4 = 0.6

1.3) Of all the farmers who grow oranges, what proportion grow lemons also?

Oranges 0.3
= =0.75
Oranges+ Lemons 0.4

75 % of all the farmers who grow oranges also grow lemons

Question 2

2.1) If you purchased a pink car in this model what is the probability that it has a faulty brake
system?

5000 3000
P(Pink and faulty brake) = P(Pink) * P(Pink with faulty brakes) = * =0.03
50000 10000

The probability is 0.03

2.2) Among which colour is the proportion of cars with faulty brakes the lowest?

4000
Red = =0.2
20000
3000
White = =0.12
25000
3000
Pink = =0.6
5000

Question 3

3.1
Let X be the number of times correctly guessed
X~Bin(n=10, p=0.5)

P(at least 6) = P(x≥6) = P(x=6) + P(x=7) +P(x=8) + P(x=9) + P(x=10)

10 6 10− 6
P ( x=6 ) = ❑C 6 ∗ 0.5 ∗0.5 =0.205
10 7 10− 7
P ( x=7 )= ❑C 7 ∗ 0.5 ∗0.5 =0.117
10 8 10− 8
P ( x=8 )= ❑C 8 ∗ 0.5 ∗0.5 =0.044
10 9 10− 9
P ( x=9 )= ❑C 9 ∗ 0.5 ∗0.5 =0.010
10 10 10− 10
P ( x=10 )= ❑C 10 ∗ 0.5 ∗ 0.5 =0.001

∴ P(x≥6)= 0.205+0.117+0.04+0.01+0.001 =0.377

3.2
Let X be the number of times correctly guessed
1
X~Bin(n=10, p= )
6

P(at least 6) = P(x≥6) = P(x=6) + P(x=7) +P(x=8) + P(x=9) + P(x=10)

10 6 10 −6
1 5
P ( x=6 ) = C 6 ∗ ∗ =0.00217063503
❑ 6 6
10 7 10 −7
( ) 1 5
P x=7 = C 7 ∗ ∗ =0.00024807258
❑ 6 6
10 8 10 −8
1 5
P ( x=8 )= C 8 ∗ ∗ =0.00001860544
❑ 6 6
10
1 9 5 10 −9
P ( x=9 )= C 9 ∗ ∗ ≈0
❑ 6 6
10 10 10 −10
1 5
P ( x=10 )= C 10 ∗ ∗ ≈0
❑ 6 6

∴ P(x≥6)= 0.205+0.117+0.04+0.01+0.001 =0.0024381565 ≈ 0.0024

Question 4

4.1

This is a Poison distribution


10
X~Poi(θ= )= X~Poi(θ=0.0002)
50000
10000
t= =0.2, θ=0.0002 , k=0
50000

( 0.0002 ∗0.2 )0 ∗ e− (0.0002∗ 0.2)


P ( x=0 )=
0!
P(x=0) = 0.99996 ≈ 1

4.2
This is a Poison distribution
10
X~Poi(θ= )= X~Poi(θ=0.0002)
50000

10000
t= =0.2, θ=0.0002
50000

P( at least 2) = P(x≥2) = 1-P(x<2) = 1-P(x=0)-P(x=1)

( 0.0002 ∗0.2 )0 ∗ e− (0.0002∗ 0.2)


P ( x=0 )=
0!
P(x=0) = 0.99996
( 0.0002∗ 0.2 )1 ∗ e − (0.0002 ∗0.2 )
P ( x=1 )= =0.00004
1!

P(x≥2) = 1- 0.99996-0.00004 = 0

Question 5
5.1
This is a normal distribution X~(100,152)

x−μ
Z=
σ

85 −100 115− 100


P(85≤x≤115) = P( ≤Z≤ ) =P(-1≤Z≤1) = P(Z≤1)-P(Z≤-1)
15 15
=0.8413- 0.1587=0.6826

5.2 This is a normal distribution X~(100,152)


x−μ
Z=
σ

130− 100
P(x≥130)=P(Z≥ )= P(Z≥2) =1-P(Z<2) = 1- 0.9772=0.0228
15

5.3 This is a normal distribution X~(100,152)


x−μ
Z=
σ
P(80≥x≥120) = P(x≤80)+P(x≥120)

80 −100
P(x≤80) =P(Z≤ )= P(Z≤-1.333) =0.0918
15

120− 100
P(x≥120) =1- P(Z≤ )= 1- P(Z≤1.333) =1- 0.9082 =0.0918
15
P(80≥x≥120) = 0.0918+0.0918 =0.1836

Question 6

x p(x) xp(x) x2 x2p(x)


0 0.1 0 0 0
1 0.15 0.15 1 0.15
2 0.3 0.6 4 1.2
3 0.2 0.6 9 1.8
4 0.15 0.6 16 2.4
5 0.1 0.5 25 2.5
Total 1 2.45 8.05

6.1 P(1≤x≤3) =P(x=1)+P(x=2)+P(x=3) = 0.15+0.30+0.20 =0.65

6.2 E(x) =0(0.1)+1(0.15)+2(0.3)+3(0.2)+4(0.15)+5(0.1)


E(x) =0+0.15+0.6+0.6+0.6+0.5 =2.45

The expected number of calls is 2.45

6.3 Variance
V(x) = E(X2) – μ2 = 8.05 – 2.452=2.00475

6.4 Standard Deviation


standard deviation = √ variance=√ 2.00475=1.416

6.5 Coefficient of Variation

Standard Deviation 1.416


Coefficient of variation = = =0.58
Mean 2.45

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