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    Lecture-11: Discrete Probability Distributions: Prepared By: Mashfiqul Huq Chowdhury September 18, 2020

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    Monir Hossain
    This document discusses several important discrete probability distributions: Bernoulli, binomial, and Poisson. The Bernoulli distribution describes experiments with two outcomes, like flipping a coin. The binomial distribution models a fixed number (n) of independent Bernoulli trials. It gives the probability of x successes in n trials. The Poisson distribution applies when the number of rare, independent events occurs over an interval of time or space. It models phenomena like traffic accidents or phone calls. Examples and key properties are provided for each distribution.

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    Lecture-11: Discrete Probability Distributions: Prepared By: Mashfiqul Huq Chowdhury September 18, 2020

    Uploaded by

    Monir Hossain
    38 views4 pages
    This document discusses several important discrete probability distributions: Bernoulli, binomial, and Poisson. The Bernoulli distribution describes experiments with two outcomes, like flipping a coin. The binomial distribution models a fixed number (n) of independent Bernoulli trials. It gives the probability of x successes in n trials. The Poisson distribution applies when the number of rare, independent events occurs over an interval of time or space. It models phenomena like traffic accidents or phone calls. Examples and key properties are provided for each distribution.

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    Lecture-11-CSE

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    This document discusses several important discrete probability distributions: Bernoulli, binomial, and Poisson. The Bernoulli distribution describes experiments with two outcomes, like flipping a coin. The binomial distribution models a fixed number (n) of independent Bernoulli trials. It gives the probability of x successes in n trials. The Poisson distribution applies when the number of rare, independent events occurs over an interval of time or space. It models phenomena like traffic accidents or phone calls. Examples and key properties are provided for each distribution.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    38 views4 pages

    Lecture-11: Discrete Probability Distributions: Prepared By: Mashfiqul Huq Chowdhury September 18, 2020

    Uploaded by

    Monir Hossain
    This document discusses several important discrete probability distributions: Bernoulli, binomial, and Poisson. The Bernoulli distribution describes experiments with two outcomes, like flipping a coin. The binomial distribution models a fixed number (n) of independent Bernoulli trials. It gives the probability of x successes in n trials. The Poisson distribution applies when the number of rare, independent events occurs over an interval of time or space. It models phenomena like traffic accidents or phone calls. Examples and key properties are provided for each distribution.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 4

    Lecture-11: Discrete Probability Distributions

    Prepared By: Mashfiqul Huq Chowdhury


    September 18, 2020

    Probability Distributions

    Discrete random variables take on only a finite or countable infinite number of values. They are
    often used to describe the number of occurrences of a specific event in a fixed number of trials
    or a fixed unit time or space. Amongest many, we focus on a few popular discrete probability
    distributions which serve as models for a large number of practical applications:

    • Bernoulli Distribution

    • Binomial Distribution

    • Poisson Distribution

    Bernoulli Trial

    The Bernoulli trial is an experiment with only two possible outcomes (a success, 1, or a failure,
    0), with positive probabilities p and q = 1–p.

    Examples

    • Flipping a coin (Head or Tail)

    • Results of a pregnancy (girl or boy)

    • Hitting a target; the outcome is hit or miss

    Characteristics of Binomial Experiment

    • Consists of n identical Bernoulli trials.

    • Each trial results in one of two outcomes, success (S) or failure (F ).

    • The probability of success on a single trial is p and remains constant from trial to trial;
    the probability of failure is q = 1–p.

    • The trials are independent.

    • The main variable of interest is x, the number of successes in n trials.

    1
    Binomial Probability Distribution

    Suppose a binomial experiment consists of n trials and constant probability of success on a


    given trial (p). Now Binomial distribution can be defined as the probability of x successes in
    n trials is:  
    n x n−x
    P (X = x) = p q ; x = 0, 1, 2, · · · , n; p + q = 1.
    x
    In a Binomial distribution

    • Mean, µ = np.

    • Variance, σ 2 = npq

    • Mean > Variance

    Exercises

    1. A marksman hits a target 80% of the time. He fires five shots at the target. What is
    the probability that

    (a) Exactly 3 shots hit the target? Answer: 0.2048


    (b) More than 3 shots hit the target? Answer: 0.7373
    (c) What are the mean and standard deviation for hits a target? Answer: 4, 0.89

    2. A television commercial claims that 1 out of 5 of “today’s marriages” began as an online


    relationship. Assuming that this is true, calculate the following for eight randomly
    selected marriages.”

    (a) The probability that at least one began online. Answer: 0.832
    (b) The probability that two or three began online. Answer: 0.441
    (c) What is the probability that exactly one began online? Answer: 0.336

    3. The probability that a patient recovers from a rare blood disease is 0.40. If 5 people are
    known to have contracted this disease, what is the probability that

    (a) Exactly 3 people survive? Answer: 0.2304


    (b) At least 2 people survive? Answer: 0.66304
    (c) At most 2 survive? Answer: 0.65376
    (d) Calculate expected number and standard deviation of people survive?

    2
    Poisson Distribution

    Poisson distribution is useful when n is large and p is small and when the independent
    variables occur over a period of time.

    Examples

    • The number of calls received by a switchboard during a given period of time.

    • The number of machine breakdowns in a day.

    • The number of traffic accidents at a given intersection during a given time period.

    Characteristics of Poisson Experiment

    • The random variable X is the number of occurrences of an event over some interval (i.e.,
    length, area, volume, period of time, etc.)

    • The occurrences occur randomly.

    • The occurrences are independent of one another.

    • The average number of occurrences over an interval is known.

    Poisson Probability Distribution

    Let x is the number of events that occur in a period of time or space during which an
    average of λ such events can be expected to occur. Now Poisson distribution can be defined
    for parameter, λ:
    e−λ λx
    P (X = x) = ; x = 0, 1, 2, · · · , ∞; λ > 0.
    x!
    In a Poisson distribution

    • Mean(µ) = Variance(σ 2 ) = λ = np

    • Mean=Variance

    3
    Exercises

    1. The average number of traffic accidents on a certain section of highway is two per week.
    Find the probability of

    (a) Exactly one accident during a one-week period. Answer: 0.2707


    (b) 8 or more accidents happen? Answer: 0.001

    2. A sales firm receives, on average, 3 calls per hour on its toll-free number. For any
    given hour, find the probability that it will receive the following.

    (a) At most 3 calls. Answer: 0.6472


    (b) At least 3 calls. Answer: 0.5768
    (c) 5 or more calls Answer: 0.1842

    3. The number of demands for taxi’s to a taxi firm follows Poisson distribution with on
    average 4 demands every 30 minutes. Find the probability of

    (a) No demand in 30 minutes. Answer: 0.0183


    (b) 1 Demand in 1 hour. Answer: 0.00268
    (c) Fewer than two demands in 15 minutes. Answer: 0.406

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