The Contemporary World │ Module 10.

Global Demography │Page 1 of 11

Global Demography
MODULE 10

OVERVIEW

When couples are asked why they have children, their answers are almost always about their feelings. For
most, having a child is the symbol of a successful union. It also ensures that the family will have a successor generation
that will continue its name. The kinship is preserved, and the family's story continues. A few, however, worry how
much strain a child can bring to the household as he/she "competes" for the parents' attention, and, in reverse, how
much energy the family needs to shower its love to an additional member. Viewed from above, however, having or
not having children is mainly driven by economics. Behind the laughter or the tears lies the question: Will the child be
an economic asset or a burden to the family? This lesson will somehow tackle the cause and effect of global
demography and how globalization driven by population.

LEARNING OUTCOMES
At the end of this module, you are expected to:
1. Discuss the relationship between population and economic welfare;
2. Identify the effects of aging and overpopulation;
3. Differentiate between contrasting positions over reproductive health.

LEARNING EXPERIENCES & SELF-ASSESSMENT ACTIVITIES (SAA)

ACTIVITY
Human Population Growth
1. Create a graph of human population growth and use it to predict the future growth. Use the data below.

2. Place the year in horizontal axis. Value should range from 1650 to 2050. Since the data is up to 2012 only,
value from 2012 to 2050 is in your discretion.
3. Place the number of people in vertical axis. Value should range from .50 to 9.8 Billion.
4. Do your graph creation in the box of next page at your most creative way.

OSMEÑA COLLEGES Module Prepared by: R. R. L. Fernandez, LPT, MAEd (CAR)

 The Contemporary World │ Module 10. Global Demography │Page 2 of 11

ANALYSIS
What do you think are factors contributed to the rapid increase in populations in the 20th century?
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
What do you think are the impacts of over population to the future?
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________

OSMEÑA COLLEGES Module Prepared by: R. R. L. Fernandez, LPT, MAEd (CAR)

 The Contemporary World │ Module 10. Global Demography │Page 3 of 11

ABSTRACTION
Demography and Globalization
The term demography is made up of two words: “Demos”, which means “population”, and “-graphy”, which
means “describe.” One can then say that demography is the science that researches and describes a population. More
concretely, demography researches the size, composition and (age) structure, as well as the geographic distribution of
human populations. In addition, demographers look at how a population develops, changes and reproduces over a
certain period of time. Three fundamental aspects are observed: The birth rate (fertility), the death rate (mortality), and
emigration and immigration (migration).
Demography does not only research the current population (for example, a group of people in a football
stadium or at a music concert), but it works more with the factors that can influence population change. Demographers
look at the individual life courses, which means the time between birth and death, and what happens within this time.
Births, deaths and migration are the core aspects of demographic analyses. Age and gender are important factors that
determine these aspects. Examples of demography:

• Age of death: A death within the first years of life and a death at the age of 93 have very different
consequences for the human population. Both influence, however, the development of the overall life
expectancy of a population and its age structure.
• Age of mother at first birth: It makes a big difference if a woman is a 22-year-old or a 36-year-old
when she has her first child. The chances that she will have more children in the course of her life are
much higher in the first case than in the second. In that respect, populations where the average age of
mothers at first birth is low tend to have higher rates of fertility and larger family sizes.
• Gender distribution among new-borns: When there are inequalities in the gender distribution among
new-borns for one or more generations, meaning a clearly identified difference in the number of new-
born boys and girls, then this will have an impact on their life courses later on. For example, there are
fewer partners available to start a family, which can then impact the birth rate.
In addition to age and gender, there are other factors that can interact in population development over a certain
period of time: The frequency of marriage and marital status, health status, level of education, the type of household,
employment level, education level of women and so on. For example, marital status in the reproductive phase of life,
when men and women can reproduce, can influence the birth rate, as can the level of education of women and their
opportunities in the labour market.
Demographic Transition
Demographers explain the past changes in the population through a theory, or rather a model, known as the
“Demographic Transition Theory”. This theory of “Demographic Transition” describes how birth and mortality rates
have changed during transition situations, and builds upon the experiences of western Europe in the last two hundred
years. This model seeks to summarize the demographic experiences of as many countries as possible within a
theoretical framework. However: Even when the model suits the industrial countries well, one has to keep in mind that
this model is less applicable in other countries, like in Africa and Asia. The “Demographic Transition” functions like
this:
1. In the first stage, the birth and mortality rates are very high. Many people are born, but within the same
population, many people also die, particularly at a young age, specifically new-born and infants. This results
in either very low or even no population growth: There are many births, but this is countered by the high death
rate.
2. In the second stage, the mortality rate begins to decrease. Due to scientific and social advancements, fewer
people die in the early life stages and they also live longer. During such periods when the mortality already

OSMEÑA COLLEGES Module Prepared by: R. R. L. Fernandez, LPT, MAEd (CAR)

 The Contemporary World │ Module 10. Global Demography │Page 4 of 11

begins to decrease and the birth rate continues to be very high, the population significantly increases
temporarily.
3. In the third stage, after some time, the birth rate begins to decline: People bring fewer and fewer children into
the world. Parents do not have to have as many children as before since children no longer present an economic
benefit. Now is when the birth rate begins to drastically decline.
4. In the fourth stage, both the mortality and the birth rates are low: Less people are dying (or rather they are
living longer) and they have fewer children. As a result, the population growth is low or is close to approaching
zero.
5. In the fifth stage, the birth rate begins to slowly grow again. The increase does not reach the same level as it
was before, but the birth rate gets closer to two children per woman. The population grows either very slowly
or stays at zero.
Although population growth is very low, both in the phase before the actual “Demographic Transition” and in
the phase after it, the two phases differ considerably in regards to the age composition of the population:

• Before the “Demographic Transition”, there are numerous births and many deaths, the latter also at younger
ages. This results in a population with a “young” age structure with a high proportion of children and a small
proportion of older people.
• After the “Demographic Transition”, fewer children are born, but the majority of them live until a very high
age. This results in a population with an “older” age structure. This is what is meant by “population ageing”.
Rural communities often welcome an extra hand to help in crop cultivation, particularly during the planting
and harvesting seasons. The poorer districts of urban centers also tend to have families with more children because the
success of their "small family business" depends on how many of their members can be hawking their wares on the
streets. Hence, the more children, the better it will be for the for the farm or the small by-the-street corner enterprises.
Urbanized, educated, and professional families with two incomes, however, desire just one or two progenies.
With each partner tied down, or committed to his/her respective professions, neither has the time to devote to having
a kid, much more to parenting. These families also have their sights on long-term savings plans. They set aside
significant parts of their incomes for their retirement, health care, and the future education of their child/children.
Rural families view multiple children and large kinship networks as critical investments. Children, for
example, can take over the agricultural work. Their houses can also become the "retirement homes" of their parents,
who will then proceed to take care of their grandchildren. Urban families, however, may not have the same kinship
network anymore because couples live on their own, or because they move out of the farmlands. Thus, it is usually the
basic family unit that is left to deal with life's challenges on its own.
These differing versions of family life determine the economic and social policies that countries craft regarding
their respective populations. Countries in the "less developed regions of the world" that rely on agriculture tend to
maintain high levels of population growth. The 1980 United Nations report on urban and rural population growth states
that "these areas contained 85 percent of the world rural population in 1975 and are projected to contain 90 percent by
the end of the 20th century.
Since then, global agricultural population has declined. In 2011, it accounted for over 37 percent of the total world
population, compared to the statistics in 1980 in which rural and urban population percentages were more or less the
same. The blog site "Nourishing the Planet," however, noted that even as "the agricultural population shrunk as a share
of total population between 1980 and 2011, it grew numerically from 2.2 billion to 2.6 billion people during this
period."

Urban populations have grown, but not necessarily because families are having more children. It is rather the
combination of the natural outcome of significant migration to the cities by people seeking work in the "more modern"

OSMEÑA COLLEGES Module Prepared by: R. R. L. Fernandez, LPT, MAEd (CAR)

 The Contemporary World │ Module 10. Global Demography │Page 5 of 11

sectors of society. This movement of people is especially manifest in the developing countries where industries and
businesses in the cities are attracting people from the rural areas. This trend has been noticeable since the 1950s, with
the pace accelerating in the next half-a-
century. By the start of the 21st century, the
world had become "44 percent urban, while
the corresponding figures for developed
countries are 52 percent to 75 percent."

International migration also plays a

part. Today, 191 million people live in
countries other than their own, and the United
Nations projects that over 2.2 million will
move from the developing world to the First
World countries. Countries welcome
immigrants as they offset the debilitating
effects of an aging population, but they are
also perceived as threats to the job market
because they compete against citizens for jobs
and often have the edge because they are open
to receiving lower wages. Voters' pressure has
often constrained their governments to
institute stricter immigration policies.

The “Perils” of Overpopulation

Development planners see urbanization and industrialization as indicators of a developing society, but disagree
on the role of population growth or decline in modernization. This lengthy discussion brings back ideas of British
scholar Thomas Malthus Who warned in his 1798 "An Essay on the Principle of Population" that population growth
will inevitably exhaust world food supply by the middle of the 19th century. Malthus’ prediction was off base, but it
was revived in the late 1960s when American biologist Paul R. Ehrlich and his wife, Anne, wrote The Population
Bomb, which argued that overpopulation in the 1970s and the 1980s will bring about global environmental disasters
that would, in turn, lead to food shortage and mass starvation." They proposed that countries like the United States
take the lead in the promotion of global population control in order to reduce the growth rate zero. Their
recommendations ranged from the bizarre (chemical castration) to the policy-oriented (taxing an additional child and
luxury taxes on child-related products) to monetary incentives (paying off men who would agree to be sterilized after
two children) to institution-building (a powerful Department Population and Environment).
There was some reason for this fear to persist. The rate of global population increase was at its highest between
1933 and 1975 when nations were finally able to return to normalcy after the devastations wrought by World War II.
The growth rate rose from 1.8 percent per year from 1955 to 1975, peaking at 2.06 percent annual growth rate between
1965 and 1970.
By limiting the population, vital resources could be used for economic progress and not be “diverted” and
“wasted” to feeding more mouths. This argument became the basis for government “population control” programs
worldwide. In the mid-20th century, the Philippines, China, and India sought to lower birth rates on the belief that
unless controlled, the free expansion of family members would lead to a crisis in resources, which in turn may result
in widespread poverty, mass hunger, and political instability. As early as 1958, the American policy journal, Foreign
Affairs, had already advocated "contraception and sterilization" as the practical solutions to global economic, social,
and political problems. While there have been criticisms that challenged this argument, it persists even to this very day.

OSMEÑA COLLEGES Module Prepared by: R. R. L. Fernandez, LPT, MAEd (CAR)

 The Contemporary World │ Module 10. Global Demography │Page 6 of 11

In May 2009, a group of American billionaires warned of how a "nightmarish" explosion of people was "a potentially
disastrous environmental, social, and industrial threat" to the world.
This worry is likewise at the core of the economist argument for the promotion of reproductive health.
Advocates of population control contend for universal access to reproductive technologies (such as condoms, the pill,
abortion, and vasectomy) and, more importantly, giving women the right to choose whether to have children or not.
They see these tools as crucial to their nation's development. Thus, in Puerto Rico, reproductive health supporters
regard their work as the task of transforming their "poor country" into a “modern nation.”
Finally, politics determine these "birth control" programs. Developed countries justify their support for
population control in developing countries by depicting the latter as conservative societies. For instance, population
experts blamed the "irresponsible fecundity" of Egyptians for that nation's run-on population growth, and the Iranian
peasant's "natural" libidinal tendencies for the same rise in population. From 1920 onwards, the Indian government
"marked lower castes, working poor, and Muslims as hypersexual and hyper-fecund and hence a drain on national
resources." These policy formulations lead to extreme policies like the forced sterilization of twenty million "violators"
of the Chinese government's one-child policy. Vietnam and Mexico also conducted coercive mass sterilization.
It's the Economy, Not the Babies!
The use of population control to prevent economic crisis
has its critics. For example, Betsy Hartmann disagrees with the
advocates of neo-Malthusian theory and accused governments
of using population control as a "substitute for social justice and
much-needed reforms—such land distribution, employment
creation, provision of mass education and health care, and
emancipation." Others pointed out that the population did grow
fast in many countries in the 1960s, and this growth "aided
economic development by spurring technological and
institutional innovation and increasing the supply of human
ingenuity." They acknowledged the shift in population from the
rural to the urban areas (52 percent to 75 percent in the
developing world since the 1950s). They likewise noted that
while these "megacities" are now clusters in which income disparities along with "transportation, housing, air pollution
and, waste management" are major problems, they also have become, and continue to be, "centers of economic growth
and activity.
The median of 29.4 years for females and 30.9 for males in the cities means a young working population. With
this median age, states are assured that they have a robust military force. According to two population experts:
"As a country's baby-boom generation gets older, for a time it constitutes a large cohort group of working-age
individuals and, later a large cohort of elderly people...ln all circumstances, there are reasons to think that this
very dynamic age structure will have economic consequences. A historically high proportion of working-age
individuals in a population means that, potentially, there are more workers per dependent than previously.
Production can therefore increase relative to consumption, and GDP capita can receive a boost."
The productive capacities of this generation are especially high in regions like East Asia as "Asia's remarkable
growth in the past half century coincided closely with demographic change in the region. As infant mortality fell from
181 to 34 per 1,000 births between 1950 and 2000, fertility fell from six to two children per woman. The lag between
falls in mortality and fertility created a baby-boom generation: between 1965 and 1990. the region's working-age
population grew nearly four times faster than the dependent population. Several studies have estimated that this

OSMEÑA COLLEGES Module Prepared by: R. R. L. Fernandez, LPT, MAEd (CAR)

 The Contemporary World │ Module 10. Global Demography │Page 7 of 11

demographic shift was responsible for one-third of East Asia's economic growth during the period (a welcome
demographic dividend).
Population growth has, in fact, spurred “technological and institutional innovation” and increased “the supply of
human ingenuity.” Advances in agricultural production have shown that the Malthusian nightmare can be prevented.
The "Green Revolution" created high-yielding varieties of rice and other cereals and, along with the development of
new methods of cultivation, increased yields globally, but more particularly in the developing world. The global famine
that neo-Malthusians predicted did not happen. Instead, between 1950 and 1984, global grain production increased by
over 250 percent, allowing agriculture to keep pace with population growth, thereby keeping global famine under
control.
Lately, a middle ground emerged between these two extremes. Scholars and policymakers agree with the neo-
Malthusians but suggest that if governments pursue population control programs, they must include "more inclusive
growth" and "greener economic growth."
Women and Reproductive Rights
The character in the middle of these debates—women—is often the subject of these population measures.
Reproductive rights supporters argue that if population control and economic development were to reach their goals,
women must have control over whether they will have children or not and when they will have their progenies, if any.
By giving women this power, they will be able to pursue their vocations—be they economic, social. or political—and
contribute to economic growth.
This serial correlation between fertility, family, and fortune has motivated countries with growing economies
to introduce or strengthen their reproductive health laws, including abortion. High-income First World nations and
fast-developing countries were able to sustain growth in part because women were given the power of choice and easy
access to reproductive technologies. In North America and Europe, 73 percent of governments allow abortion upon a
mother's request. Moreover, the more educated a woman is, the better are her prospects of improving her economic
position. Women can spend most of the time pursuing either their higher education or their careers, instead of forcibly
reducing this time to take care of their children.
Most countries implement reproductive health laws because they worry about the health of the mother. In
1960, Bolivia's average total fertility rate (TFR) was 6.7 children. In 1978, the Bolivian government put into effect a
family planning program that included the legalization of abortion (after noticing a spike in unsafe abortion and
maternal deaths). By 1985, the TFR rate went down to 5.13 and further declined to 3.46 in 2008. A similar pattern
occurred in Ghana after the government expanded reproductive health laws out of the same concern as that of the
Bolivian government. As a result. “fertility declined steeply...and continued to decline (after) 1994.” Such examples
seemed to draw the attention of other countries. Thus, in 2014, the United Nations report noted that the proportion of
countries allowing abortion to preserve the physical health of a woman increased from 63 percent to 67 percent, and
those to preserve the mental health of a woman increased from 52 percent to 64 percent.
Opponents regard reproductive rights as nothing but a false front for abortion. They contend that this method
of preventing conception endangers the life of the mother and must be banned. The religious wing of the anti-
reproductive rights flank goes further and describes abortion as a debauchery that sullies the name of God; it will send
the mother to hell and prevents a new soul, the baby, to become human. This position was a politically powerful one
partly because various parts of the developing world remain very conservative. Unfailing pressure by Christian groups
compelled the governments of Poland, Croatia, Hungary, Yugoslavia, and even Russia to impose restrictive
reproductive health programs, including making access to condoms and other technologies difficult. Muslim countries
do not condone abortion and limit wives to domestic chores and delivering babies. Senegal only allows abortion when
the mother's life is threatened. The Philippines, with a Catholic majority, now has a reproductive health law in place,

OSMEÑA COLLEGES Module Prepared by: R. R. L. Fernandez, LPT, MAEd (CAR)

 The Contemporary World │ Module 10. Global Demography │Page 8 of 11

but conservative politicians have enfeebled it through budget cuts and stalled its implementation by filing a case against
the law in the Supreme Court.
A country being industrialized and developed, however, does not automatically assure pro-women
reproductive regulations. In the United States, the women's movement of the 1960s was responsible for the passage
and judicial endorsement of a prochoice law, but conservatives controlling state legislatures have also slowly
undermined this law by imposing a restriction on women's access to abortion. While pro-choice advocates argue that
abortion is necessary to protect the health of the mother, their conservative rivals shift the focus on the death of the
fetus in the mother's womb as the reason for reversing the law. This battle continues to be played out in all the political
arenas in the United States.
The Feminist Perspective
Feminists approach the issue of reproductive rights from another angle. They are, foremost, against any form
of population control because they are compulsory by nature, resorting to a carrot-and-stick approach (punitive
mechanisms co-exist alongside benefits) that actually does not empower women. They believe that government
assumptions that poverty and environmental degradation are caused by overpopulation are wrong. These factors ignore
other equally important causes like the unequal distribution of wealth, the lack of public safety nets like universal
health care, education, and gender equality programs. Feminists also point
out that there is very little evidence that point to overpopulation as the culprit
behind poverty and ecological devastation.
Governments have not directly responded to these criticisms, but one
of the goals of 1994 United Nations International Conference on Population
and Development suggests recognition of this issue. Country representatives
to that conference agreed that women should receive family planning
counseling on abortion, the dangers of sexually transmitted diseases, the
The feminist approach to reproductive
nature of human sexuality, and the main elements of responsible parenthood.
issues is primarily rights-based
However, the conference also left it to the individual countries to determine
how these recommendations can be turned into programs. Hence, globally,
women's and feminist arguments on reproductive rights and overpopulation are acknowledged, but the struggle to turn
them into policy is still fought at the national level. It is the dilemma that women and feminist movements face today.
Population Growth and Food Security
Today’s global population has reached 7.5 billion, and it’s estimated to increase to 9.5 billion in 2050, then
11.2 billion by 2100. The median age of this population is 30.1 with the male median age at 29.4 years and 30.9 years
for female. Ninety-five percent of this population growth will happen in the developing countries, with demographers
predicting that by the middle of this century, several countries will have tripled their population. The opposite is
happening in the developed world where populations remain steady in general, but declining in some of the most
advanced countries (Japan and Singapore). However, this scenario is not a run-off that could get out of control.
Demographers predict that the world population will stabilize by 2050 to 9 billion, although they warn that feeding
this population will be an immense challenge.
The decline in fertility and the existence of a young productive population, however, may not be enough to
offset this concern over food security. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warns that in order for countries
to mitigate the impact of population growth, food production must increase by 70 percent; annual cereal production
must rise to 3 billion tons from the current 2.1 billion; and yearly meat production must go up to 200 million tons to
reach 470 million. The problem here is that the global rate of growth of cereals had declined considerably —from 3.2
percent in 1960 to just 1.5 percent in 2000.

OSMEÑA COLLEGES Module Prepared by: R. R. L. Fernandez, LPT, MAEd (CAR)

 The Contemporary World │ Module 10. Global Demography │Page 9 of 11

The FAO recommends that countries increase their investments in agriculture, craft long-term policies aimed
at fighting poverty, and invest in research and development. The UN body also suggests that countries develop a
comprehensive social service program that includes food assistance, consistent delivery of health services, and
education especially for the poor. If domestic production is not enough, it becomes essential for nations to import. The
FAO, therefore, enjoins governments to keep their markets open, and to eventually “move towards a global trading
system that is fair and competitive, and that contributes to a dependable market for food.”
The aforementioned are worthy recommendations but nation-states shall need the political will to push through
these sweeping changes in population growth and food security. This will take some time to happen given that good
governance is also a goal that many nations, especially in the developing world, have yet to attain.

APPLICATION
Family Trees
Create two family trees based on interviews with each of your parents. Try to trace your family connections
as far back as you can. Expand lateral connections as well. The "higher" you go vertically, the better. Unless you are
the child of a single parent, please remember that you have to trace the lines of two families— your mother's and
father's.
If you are a family of migrants, determine if your family moved from the provinces to the big cities (Metro
Manila or Metro Cebu) or vice versa. If they migrated to the cities, ask them when the family moved, and why they
left the provinces for the cities.
Do your family tree graphs in the box provided.

OSMEÑA COLLEGES Module Prepared by: R. R. L. Fernandez, LPT, MAEd (CAR)

 The Contemporary World │ Module 10. Global Demography │Page 10 of 11

KEY POINTS
✓ Demography researches and describes the size and composition of the population.
✓ It analyses the age structure, the geographic distribution and the size of the human population.
✓ The foundational aspects of demography are fertility, mortality and migration (emigration and immigration).
✓ Demography works with the factors that influence population change.
✓ Demography is determined through factors like age and gender, but also through the number of marriages,
family status, health status, level of education, type of households and the employment rate.
✓ Demography is a complex discipline that requires the integration of various social scientific data. As you have
seen, demographic changes and policies have impacts on the environment, politics, resources, and others.
Yet, at its core, demography accounts for the growth and decline of the human species. It may be about large
numbers and massive effects, but it is ultimately about people. Thus, no interdisciplinary account of
globalization is complete without an accounting of people. The next lesson will continue on this theme of
examining people, and will focus particularly on their global movement.

LOOKING AHEAD

Congratulations for making it till the end of this module! If you aced the assessments, I am happy for you. If you
have not reached your desired level of competence, just keep going! Remember that an expert was once a beginner.
The next topic will be about Global Migration. Happy learning!

REFERENCES
Claudio L., Abinales P. (2018) Global DEmography. The Contemporary World. C & E Publishing Incorporated.
https://population-europe.eu/lesson-1-introduction-demography

OSMEÑA COLLEGES Module Prepared by: R. R. L. Fernandez, LPT, MAEd (CAR)

 The Contemporary World │ Module 10. Global Demography │Page 11 of 11

END OF MODULE ASSESEMENT

MODULE 10. Global Demography

Name: ______________________________________________ Course & Year: ___________________________

Address: ____________________________________________ Contact No. ______________________________

A. Do you believe in neo-Malthusian argument? Why or why not?

______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________

B. How can technology and interventions in development offset the pressures of population growth?
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________

C. Under what circumstance is rapid population growth beneficial to societies?

______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________________________

OSMEÑA COLLEGES Module Prepared by: R. R. L. Fernandez, LPT, MAEd (CAR)