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MATHEMATICS
Quarter 4 – Module 8
Making Simple Predictions of Events and
Solving Problems Involving Experimental
and Theoretical Probability
Mathematics – Grade 6
Alternative Delivery Mode
Quarter 4 – Module 8: Making Simple Predictions of Events and Solving
Problems Involving Experimental and Theoretical
Probability

First Edition, 2020

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Mathematics
Quarter 4 – Module 8
Making Simple Predictions of
Events and Solving Problems
Involving Experimental and
Theoretical Probability
 I

LEARNING COMPETENCIES:

 Makes simple predictions of events based on the results of

experiments (M6SP-IVi-23)
 Solves routine and non-routine problems involving
experimental and theoretical probability (M6SP-IVj-24)

OBJECTIVES:
K: Makes simple predictions of events based on the results
of experiments
S: Solves problems involving experimental and
theoretical probability
A: Appreciates the importance of learning to solve
problem related to real life situation

Directions: Use likely to happen, unlikely to happen, certain

to happen or impossible to happen to describe
each of the following statements. Write your answer
in your notebook.

1. A couple cannot afford to have an ultrasound and they

are waiting for a new-born baby. They feel that the unborn
baby is a girl.
2. The sun sets in the south.
3. It is cloudy today. It will not rain.

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4. I listened to the teacher and participated in the discussion of
the lesson. Then I reviewed my lesson. When I took the test,
I got a perfect score.

5. Wearing face mask and shield can help prevent the

spread of corona virus.

6. When a pupil is present, he is ready for the day’s schoolwork.

7. When a pupil is happy, he has a big amount of allowance.

8. When a pupil is stout, he is healthy.

9. The sun rises in the west.

10. A good reader understands well.

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Lesson Making Simple Predictions of Events
andSolving ProblemsInvolving
Experimental andTheoretical
Probability

’s In

How can you make simple predictions of events based on the

results of experiments?

How do you solve routine and non-routine problems involving

experimental and theoretical probability?

Try this.

Do an experiment. Roll a die and do the following:

1. List the outcomes of the event that the top face is even.

2. What is the probability that the top face is an odd number?

3. What is the probability that the top face will show an even
number?

You will be more guided upon reading and studying the short
discussion and important points to remember given to you
that even without the teacher you can still manage to learn.

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 ’s New

Directions: Read and study the sample problem below. Try to

answer the questions that follow.

A bowl contains 12 slips of paper, each with a different

name of a month. Find the theoretical probability that a slip
selected at random from the bowl has a name of a month
that starts with letter J.

Explanation:

Since there are 12 months in a year, so there are 12 possible

outcomes. There are 3 months that starts with letter J: January,
June, and July.
𝟑 𝟏
P= and in simplest form, this becomes
𝟏𝟐 𝟒
𝟏
P=
𝟒 So, the probability of picking a month that begins
𝟏
with letter J is
𝟒

is It

Read and study the following important points so that you

will be guided on how to make simple predictions of events
based on the results of experiments and in solving routine and
non-routine problems involving experimental and theoretical
probability.

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Discussion
In making simple prediction of events, use a scale
like: 0 or 0% = for impossible to happen
𝟏
or 25% = unlikely to happen
𝟒
𝟏
or 50% = equally or unlikely to happen
𝟐
𝟑
or 75% = likely to happen
𝟒

1 or 100% = certain to happen

Probability

Probability is used to describe how likely or unlikely it is

that something will happen. Probability will be given in fraction,
decimal or percent. The value of probability ranges from 0 to 1(0
means the event is impossible to happen, while 1 means the event
is certain to happen.)
Probability will help us decide how often something is likely
to happen, but it will never help you exactly when that event
will happen unless the probability is 0 (it will never happen) or 1
(it will surely happen.)
Possible outcomes are each of the outcomes that could
result from an experiment.

Theoretical and Experimental probability:

When we use a formula to find the probability of an event,

we are finding the theoretical probability. Theoretical probability
of an event is the number of ways that an event can occur
divided by the total number of outcomes. Theoretical
probability is what we expect to happen.
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
Theoretical probability (event) =
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑃𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

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 Experimental probability of an event is the ratio of the
number of times an event occurs to the total number of trials or
times the activity is performed. We can also find the probability
of an event by doing an experiment. When we do this, we are
finding experimental probability. Experimental probability is what
actually happen when we try it out.
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑂𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟
Experimental probability(event)=
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑇𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡

Experimental probability is used in most real-life situations when the

probabilities cannot be determined theoretically.
As more trials conducted, the experimental probability generally
gets closer to the theoretical probability.

Sample exercise in finding the theoretical probability:

1. There are 6 possible ways for a die (singular of dice) to turn
up. What is the probability of rolling a 1? a 2? a 5?

Each number is equally likely to occur, so:

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 1

Probability (1) = =
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑃𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 6

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 1

Probability (2) =𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑃𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 = 6

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 1

Probability (5) =𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑃𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 = 6

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 Sample exercise in finding the experimental probability:
1. A bag contains 12 red marbles, 8 blue marbles, and 4 yellow
marbles. Find the experimental probability of getting a blue
marble.

Solution:
Take a marble from the bag.
Record the color and return the marble in the bag.
Repeat the process (at least 10 times).
Count the number of times a blue marble was picked
(suppose it is 4).

Using the formula we have,

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑂𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟
Experimental probability(event)=
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑇𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡

2
P (blue marble) =
5

’s More

Directions: Try to answer the following problems. Write the correct

letter of the correct answer in your notebook.

1. A day is chosen from a week. Find the probability of choosing a

Wednesday.
4 3 2 1
a. b. c. d.
7 7 7 7

2. What is the probability of choosing 7th letter “a” from the word
“Mathematics”?
2
a. d. 12
11
b.
11
c.
1
2

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 3. A bag contains 10 marbles: 3 red, 3 green, and 4 blue. If a
marble is picked at random, what is the probability of getting
a blue marble?
2 3 4 5
a. b. c. d.
5 5 5 6
4.) A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored green, white, blue, and
red. What is the probability of landing on each color after
spinning the spinner?
4 3 2 1
a. b. c. d.
4 4 4 4

I Have Learned

Directions: Solve the following problems. Write the correct letter of

the correct answer in your notebook.

1. There are 5 white balls, 8 red balls, 7 yellow balls, and 4

green balls in a jar. A ball is chosen at random. What is the
probability of choosing red?
3
a. b. c. 1
25 24 24 d.
3
2. A bag contains 5 blue sticks,4 red sticks and 3 orange
sticks and you ask your friend to pick one without looking.
What is the probability that the stick will be blue?
5
a. b. c. d.
12 12 12 12

3. When a six-sided die is rolled, what is the probability that the

1
number rolled
1
will be five? 1 1
a. b. c. d.
4 5 6 7

4. You ask a friend to think of a number from 4 to 10. What is

the probability that his number will be 7?
1 1 1 1
a. b. c. d.
8 7 6 5

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 I Can Do

Directions: Solve the following exercises. Write the correct letter of

the correct answer in your notebook.

1. On a popular television game show, a contestant must

choose one of the five envelopes. One envelope contains
the grand prize, a car. Find the probability of not choosing a
car.
a. 4 b. 6 c. 7 d. 9
5 7 9 7
2. You roll a pair of number cubes. What is the probability of
getting even numbers on both sides?
a. 4 b. 2 c. 1 d. 1
4 3 2 3

Directions: Solve the following problems. Write the correct letter of

the correct answer in your notebook.

1. Each letter in the word “LOVE” are on separate cards, face

down on the table. If you pick a card at random, what is the
3
probability that
1
its letter will be V or E? 1
5
a. b. c. d.
4 4 7 3
2. There are 5 red balls and 6 blue balls in a jar. What is
the probability of picking a red ball?
7
a. b. c. d.
11 11 11 11

3. In throwing a pair of dice, what is the probability that we get a

1
sum of 9? 3 4
3
a. b. c. d.
6 5 7 5
4. Find the probability of flipping a tail on a coin.

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 4 1 5
a. b. c.
7 2 9
d. 11

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Directions: Read the situation below. And answer the questions that
follow.

Kian got one face mask from a drawer that contains 2 brown
face masks, 3 white face masks and 1 blue face mask.

1. What is the probability that he will get a brown face mask?

2. What is the probability of getting the red face mask?

3. What is the probability of not picking a white face mask?

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References

Department of Education.Mathematics-Grade 3:
Teacher’ Guide1st ed.2015, 1-10.

Department of Education. Mathematics-Ikatlong

Baitang:
Kagamitan ng Mag-aaral sa Sinugbuanong Binisaya
1st ed, 1-10.

Visualizing Numbers up to 10 000, Math for Grade 3.

BEAM LG Gr. 3 Module 1/Whole
Numbers.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cy5t7
ctg9Lprg&fea ture=share.
https://lrmds.deped.gov.ph/com.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1tq5ZHjRL98&feature=share, Visualizing
Numbers.

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Tel #: (035) 225 2376 / 541 1117
Email Address: Website: lrmds.depednodis.net