Learning Area Grade Level

W8 Mathematics 8
Quarter 4th Date
I. LESSON TITLE EXPERIMENTAL AND THEORETICAL PROBABILITY AND WORD PROBLEMS
INVOLVING PROBABILITY OF SIMPLE EVENTS
II. MOST ESSENTIAL LEARNING Lesson 1. Illustrates an experimental probability and a theoretical
COMPETENCIES (MELCs) probability (M8GE-IVi-1)
Lesson 2. Solve problems involving probabilities of simple events (M8GE-Ivj-1)
III. CONTENT/CORE CONTENT Probability
IV. LEARNING PHASES AND LEARNING ACTIVITIES
I. Introduction (Time Frame: 10 minutes)

Hello, Grade 8 students! Today, we will be discussing experimental and theoretical probability as well as problems involving the
probability of simple events. Your knowledge of finding the probability of simple events will be very helpful for these lessons. So,
let us have a review first.

Review of the past lesson:

The Probability of an event, P(event), is a number from 0 to 1, which tells how likely an event is to happen. The more likely an
event is to occur, the higher its probability. The less likely an event is to occur, the lower its probability.

Remember:

• The probability of any event is a number (either a fraction, a decimal or a percent) from 0 to 1.
• The sum of the probabilities of all outcomes in the sample space is 1.
• If an event will never happen, then the probability is 0.
• If an event is sure to happen, then the probability is 1

The probability of an event can be computed as,

!
P(event)= Number of favorable outcomes, in symbols, P(E) =
Number of all outcomes "
D. Development (Time Frame: 60 minutes)

LESSON 1. EXPERIMENTAL AND THEORETICAL PROBABILITY

In probability, an experiment is a process of repeating an activity whose outcomes are limited to well-defined choices.

The set of well-defined possible outcomes or choices in a Statistical experiment is called a sample space.

Experimental Probability is found by repeating an The Theoretical Probability of an event is the number
experiment and observing the outcomes. of ways the event can occur (favorable outcomes)
divided by the number of total outcomes.
!"#$%& () *+#%, (--"&%.
P(event) = !"#$%& () )*+(&*$,% ("-.(#%/
*(*/0 !"#$%& () *&+/0, P(event) =
!"#$%& () -(-*, ("-.(#%/

A coin is tossed 10 times.
A coin is tossed once.

A head is recorded 7 times and a tail is 3 times.

𝟕 𝟑 𝟏 𝟏
Therefore, P(head) = ; and P(tail)= P(head)= ; and P(tail)=
𝟏𝟎 𝟏𝟎 𝟐 𝟐



IV. LEARNING PHASES AND LEARNING ACTIVITIES

Examples:

1. Mark is preparing for the upcoming San Pablo City Division Meet Basketball tournament. During their practice, he was able
to do a 3-point shot 8 times out of 15 tries. What is the probability that Mark can be able to do a 3-point shot?

This is an example of an experiment probability.

6 *+#%, ,"--%,,)"07 𝟖
P(3-point shot)= ; therefore P(3-point shot)=
89 *&+/0, 𝟏𝟓

2. In an experiment made by Kayla, the die is rolled 20 times and a number “5” occurs 6 times. What is the experimental and
theoretical probability that “5” shows up on a die?

< =>?@A
To find the experimental probability, P(“5” occurs) = ;
BC *&+/0,
𝟔 𝟑
therefore P(“5” occurs) = or .
𝟐𝟎 𝟏𝟎

Then, the theoretical probability that the number ‘5’ shows up on a die when rolled is 1/6. This is because of the 6 possible
𝟏
outcomes (dice showing ‘1’, ‘2’, ‘3’, ‘4’, ‘5’, ‘6’), only 1 outcome (dice showing '5') is favorable. Therefore, P(“5” occur) =
𝟔

3. James listed the names of 7 lakes in San Pablo City and he plans to visit them. What is the probability that he will choose
Yambo lake to visit first?

This is an example of theoretical probability.

There is one option to select Yambo out of the 7 lakes listed.
𝟏
Therefore, P(Yambo) = .
𝟕

4. You asked your 3 friends Marian, Leo, and Heart, to toss a fair coin 15 times each in a row and the outcome of the experiment
is shown below:
Coins Tossed by: No. of Heads No. of Tails
Marian 6 9
Leo 7 8
Heart 8 7

Calculate the number of occurrences of head and tails.

This is an example of experimental probability.

Coins Tossed No. of No. of Experimental Probability for the Experimental Probability for the
by: Heads Tails occurrence of Head occurrence of Tails
Marian 6 9 6/15 or 2/5 9/15 or 3/5
Leo 7 8 7/15 8/15
Heart 8 7 8/15 7/15

5. Suppose you have a bag with 75 marbles: 15 red, 5 white, 25 green, 20 black and 10 blue. You draw a marble, note its color,
and then put it back. You do this 75 times with these results: 12 red, 9 white, 27 green, 17 black and 10 blue. Find each
probability as a fraction in simplest form:

P(red) P(white) P(green) P(black) P(blue)

Experimental 12/75 or 4/25 9/75 or 3/25 27/75 or 9/25 17/75 10/75 or 2/15
Probability In the experiment, There were 9 white There were 27 There were 17 There were 10
there were 12 red marbles drawn green marbles black marbles blue marbles
marbles drawn drawn drawn drawn
Theoretical 15/75 or 3/25 5/75 or 1/15 25/75 or 5/15 20/75 or 4/15 10/75 or 2/15
Probability There are 15 red There are 5 white There are 25 green There are 20 There are 10
marbles in the marbles in the bag marbles in the bag black marbles in blue marbles
bag the bag in the bag


IV. LEARNING PHASES AND LEARNING ACTIVITIES

LESSON 2. PROBLEMS INVOLVING PROBABILITY OF SIMPLE EVENTS

Again, the Probability of Simple Events is an event consisting of a single point of the sample space is known as a simple event.
To solve the probability of a simple event, we need to get the ratio of a number of favorable outcomes to the total number of
possible outcomes known as the Sample Space. It is being shown by the formula below:

P(event)= Number of favorable outcomes,

!
in symbols, P(E) =
Number of all outcomes "
Examples:
1. Each of the letters of the word “PRUDENCIA” is written on a card and all the cards are placed into a bag. Ms. Cabral
randomly selected a card from the bag. Find the probability that the card bears:

a. The letter “C”

The number of occurrences of letter “C” is 1 since there is only one (1) letter “C” in the word. Then, the total number of
𝟏
possible outcomes in the event is 9 since there are 9 letters in the word “PRUDENCIA”. Therefore, P(letter “C”) =
𝟗
b. A vowel
𝟒
The number of occurrences of the vowel in the word “PRUDENCIA” is 4 (u, e, i, a). Therefore, P(vowel) = .
𝟗
2. Mr Laluz put balls in a bag that contains 7 white balls, 3 red balls and 2 black balls. A ball is picked from the bag at random.
Find the probability of picking a ball that is (a) black (b) not a red.
𝟐 𝟏
a. Since there are 2 black balls in the selection out 12 balls in the bag, therefore P(a black) = or .
𝟏𝟐 𝟔
𝟗 𝟑
b. P(not a red) means the possible selection has 7 White and 2 black, therefore P(not a red) = or
𝟏𝟐 𝟒
E. Engagement (Time Frame: 40 minutes)

Learning Task 1. Roll It!

The table shows the result of Michael rolling a die 100 times. Answer the question that follow.

Outcome Frequency 1. What is the theoretical probability of a die showing a “3”?

1 16 2. What is the theoretical probability of a die showing an even number?
2 20 3. In the experiment done by Michael, what is the probability of a die showing an odd
3 22 number?
4 10 4. Based on the frequency of occurrences of numbers in a die, what is the probability
that a die showing greater than 5?
5 18
5. When Michael rolled the die 100 times, what is the probability of a die showing “2”?
6 14
Total 100

Learning Task 2: Make it Simple!

Solve the following word problems involving simple events:

1. Mrs. Formento, a grade 8 Math teacher, prepared a list of “Maginhawa Community Pantry” beneficiaries in selected
barangays in San Pablo City sponsored by PDFMNHS Alumni Association. There are 50 beneficiaries from San Rafael, 25 in
San Nicolas, 10 in Sta. Monica, 30 in San Roque and 45 in Sta. Veronica. What is the probability that a beneficiary to be
chosen is:
a. from San Nicolas?
b. from Sta. Veronica?
c. from San Rafael or Sta. Monica?

2. Mr. Delas Alas wrote each letters of the word “SAMPALOK LAKE” in a card. If he flips a card, what is the probability that a
card chosen is:
a. a vowel?
b. letter “K”?


IV. LEARNING PHASES AND LEARNING ACTIVITIES

A. Assimilation (Time Frame: 20 minutes)
Learning Tasks 3: Experiment Time
Guide Questions:
Conduct an experiment on tossing a coin 20 times.
Record each occurrence by completing the table a. What is the theoretical probability of tossing a head coin?
below. Then answer the guide questions at the right. b. After the experiment you have done, what is the experimental
Outcome Frequency probability of tossing a head coin?
Head c. What is the experimental probability of tossing a tail coin?
d. What mathematical concepts are utilized in the given situation?
Tail
e. What do you think is the importance of conducting an
Total experiment in determining the probability of something may
occur?
Scoring Rubrics: Problems Formulated and Solved
Score Descriptors
Poses a more complex problem with 2 or more correct possible solutions and communicates ideas
6 accurately, shows in-depth comprehension of the pertinent concepts and/or processes, and provides
explanations wherever appropriate.
Poses a more complex problem and finishes all significant parts of the solution and communicates ideas
5
accurately, shows in-depth comprehension of the pertinent concepts and/or processes.
Poses a complex problem and finishes all significant parts of the solution and communicates ideas
4
accurately, shows in-depth comprehension of the pertinent concepts and/or processes
Poses a complex problem and finishes most significant parts of the solution and communicates ideas
3 accurately, shows comprehension of major concepts although neglects or misinterprets less significant ideas
or details
Poses a problem and finishes some significant parts of the solution and communicates ideas accurately but
2
shows gaps on theoretical comprehension
1 Poses a problem but demonstrates little comprehension, not being able to develop an approach

V. ASSESSMENT (Time Frame: 20 Minutes)

Outcome Frequency
QUIZ: Direction: Choose the letter of the correct answer. 1 6
(For items 1&2) The table shows the results of Mr. Revillame spinning a 1 to 5 wheel of fortune 20 2 2
times. 3 4
1. What is the theoretical probability of obtaining a “5”? 4 5
2. What is the theoretical probability of showing a prime number? 5 3
3. In the spinning done by Mr. Revillame, what is the experimental probability of getting a “3”? Total 20
4. Alyssa Valdez, a pride of CALABARZON seriously practicing her spiking skills as preparation to Regional Sports Competition
2022. During their practice, she was able to do a first-line spike 13 times out of her 19 attempts. What is the probability that
Alyssa can be able to do a first-line spike?
A. 19/32 B. 13/32 C. 13/19 D. 1
5. Efren “Bata” Reyes received a complete set of billiard balls numbered 1 to 15 in a box. To check it, he picked one ball in
the box without looking. What is the chance of getting an odd number billiard ball?
A. 1/15 B. 4/15 C. 7/15 D. 8/15
VI. REFLECTION (Time Frame: 10 minutes)
• Communicate your personal assessment as indicated in the Learner’s Assessment Card.
Personal Assessment on Learner’s Level of Performance
Using the symbols below, choose one which best describes your experience in working on each given task. Draw it in the column for
Level of Performance (LP). Be guided by the descriptions below:
¶ - I was able to do/perform the task without any difficulty. The task helped me in understanding the target content/ lesson.
ü - I was able to do/perform the task. It was quite challenging, but it still helped me in understanding the target content/lesson.
? – I was not able to do/perform the task. It was extremely difficult. I need additional enrichment activities to be able to do/perform this task.
Learning Task LP Learning Task LP Learning Task LP Learning Task LP
Number 1 Number 3 Number 5 Number 7
Number 2 Number 4 Number 6 Number 8
VII. REFERENCES Mathematics 8 Learner’s Module, pages 562-569
https://www.softschools.com/math/topics/theoretical_vs_experimental_probability/
Prepared by: BENEDICK R. LALUZ Checked MA. FILIPINA M. DRIO
Master Teacher 1, Mathematics by: LAILA R. MALOLES
HENRY P. CONTEMPLACION
MARIA TERESA J. MACATANGAY