Innovative Research Group, Inc.

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PC Alberta Strategic Update Survey

Prepared for:

June, 2010

STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Methodology

Methodology
A proportional telephone survey of 601 adults in Alberta, 18 years and older conducted from June 17 to June 26, 2010 AND a proportional telephone survey of 601 adults in Alberta, 18 years and older conducted from October 21st to 26th , 2010. Sample was broken down into three regions as follows (June/Oct): - Calgary n= 187; n=180 - Edmonton n= 151; n=175 - North/South/rural n= 263; n=246 Margin not always total 100% due to rounding values rather than any error in data. Sums are of error for total sample approximately Note: Graphs may added before rounding numbers. +4.00, 19 times out of 20. Margin of error for regional results is approximately

Albertans Values

Majority believe that the government should create equal opportunity for people to compete Q It is more important for government
60%

28%

10%

To create equal opportunity so that To redistribute wealth so that the poor everyone can com pete on their own to be and disadvantaged have m than they ore the best they can be. would if left on their own.

Don't know

Note: Blank and Refused (3%) not shown

Majority believe that the profit system teaches people the value of hard work system Q Do you think the profit and success
56%

26% 15%

Brings out the worst in hum nature? an

Teaches people the value of hard work and success?

Don't know

Note: Blank and Refused (3%) not shown

Three-in-four believe that Alberta has7 a pressing social deficit

Q
Do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
We have a pressing social deficit in Alberta that is measured by problems such as homelessness, waiting lists for health care and lack of access to post-secondary education.

34%

42%

4%

12%

It's hard for people like me to get ahead in Alberta.

16%

20%

4%

29%

26%

Protectingthe environment is more important than creatingjobs.

13%

35%

9%

26%

14%

Strongly agree

Som ewhat agree

Neither agree nor disagree

Som ewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

Note: Dont know/Refused not shown

Majority believe the govt should decide spending based on the of the following statements is publics concerning spendingclosest to yourand services, do you think they should affordability Q Which decisions need, notprograms view? When governments make major on
be basing their decisions mainly on

65%

26%

10%

Their ability to afford the program and s services

The public's need for the program and s services

Don't know

By a 2:1 margin, Albertans believe in funding social programs over eliminating the view? Q Which statement is closest to your deficit

The provincial government should increase finding for social programs such as health and education even if it means running a deficit -orThe provincial government should eliminate the deficit, even if it means reducing funding for social programs such as health and education

Three-in-four believe that people should be left alone to decide what is right to moral issues like same sex marriage Q When it comes on moral issuesand abortion, do you think
75%

10

17% 6%

Governm should legislate clear ent com unity m m oral standards?

Note: Blank and Refused (2%) not shown

People should be left alone to decide what is right for them selves?

Don't know

PC Party Brand

12 PC Party scores highest in questions relating to leadership, Thinking about Albertas main parties the Conservatives, the competencethe NDP, pleaseProgressiveparty is best described by each of the and responsibilityWildrose tell which Q Alliance, the Liberals and
following words or phrases.

Prepared to run the government

37%

12% 5%

14% 1% 13%

14%

Competent

33%

11% 6%

12%1% 17%

18%

Strong team

33%

10% 7%

16% 1% 12%

18%

Financially responsible

32%

13%

5% 10%

18%

17%

The PC Party Other

The Liberal Party None/ Would not vote

The NDP Undecided/DK

The Wildrose Alliance

Extreme used by a plurality to describe the NDP, Wildrose

Q

13

Thinking about Albertas main parties the Progressive Conservatives, the Wildrose Alliance, the Liberals and the NDP, please tell which party is best described by each of the following words or phrases.

Extreme

9%

13%

22%

21%

3% 9%

18%

The PC Party Other

The Liberal Party None/ Would not vote

The NDP Undecided/DK

The Wildrose Alliance

14 Stands for values I believe in used by plurality to describe the PC Thinking parties the Conservatives, the Wildrose partyabout Albertas main NDP, pleaseProgressiveparty is best described by each of the tell which Q Alliance, the Liberals and the
following words or phrases.

Stands for values I believe in

27%

14%

10%

21%

4% 10%

12%

The PC Party Other

The Liberal Party None/ Would not vote

The NDP Undecided/DK

The Wildrose Alliance

Leader Brand

Stelmach scores highest on record, competence and leadership

Q

16

Thinking again of the four main party leaders Ed Stelmach of the Progressive Conservative Party, Dr. David Swann of the Liberal Party, Brian Mason of the New Democratic Party, and Danielle Smith of the Wildrose Alliance which leader do you feel is best described by each of the following words or phrases?
Proven record of accom plishm ent

28%

7% 6%

6%

21%

Com petent

23%

9%

9%

18%

9%

S trong leader

21%

7%

8%

20%

14%

Ed Stelm of the PC Party ach Danielle Sm of the Wildrose Alliance ith

Note: Dont know/Refused not shown

Dr. David S wan of the Liberal Party None

Brian Mason of the NDP

Stelmach scores highest on being a regular person, caring about voters Thinking again of the four main party leaders Ed and their Dr. David Swann of the LiberalStelmach of the Progressive Party, Brian Mason of the New Q Conservative Party, problems
Is a regular person

17

Democratic Party, and Danielle Smith of the Wildrose Alliance which leader do you feel is best described by each of the following words or phrases?

30%

8%

12%

15%

7%

Cares about people like m e

20%

9%

10%

16%

17%

Cares about the problem of s m com unity y m

21%

9%

11%

14%

16%

Ed S telm of the PC Party ach Brian Mason of the NDP None

Note: Dont know/Refused not shown

Dr. David S wan of the Liberal Party Danielle Sm of the Wildrose Alliance ith

Ed Stelmach is reliable
Q

18

Thinking again of the four main party leaders Ed Stelmach of the Progressive Conservative Party, Dr. David Swann of the Liberal Party, Brian Mason of the New Democratic Party, and Danielle Smith of the Wildrose Alliance which leader do you feel is best described by each of the following words or phrases?

Reliable

25%

7%

9%

13%

15%

Ed S telm of the PC Party ach Danielle S ith of the Wildrose Alliance m

Note: Dont know/Refused not shown

Dr. David Swan of the Liberal Party None

Brian Mason of the NDP

Ed Stelmach balances the interests of all regions

Q

19

Thinking again of the four main party leaders Ed Stelmach of the Progressive Conservative Party, Dr. David Swann of the Liberal Party, Brian Mason of the New Democratic Party, and Danielle Smith of the Wildrose Alliance which leader do you feel is best described by each of the following words or phrases?

Note: Dont know/Refused not shown

Stelmach compares positively to other again of the main party leaders ... which leader do you feel is best described by leaders Thinking
Q
each of the following words or phrases?

20

Note: Dont know/Refused not shown

impressions, while Smith, Swann, Mason stayed the same

Q

21

Now, I would like to read you the names of several individuals who have been mentioned in the news recently. For each one, please tell me whether you have heard of that person and, if so, whether you have a favourable or unfavourable impression of that person. If you do not recognize the name, just say so. Would that be strongly favourable/unfavourable impression or just a somewhat favourable/unfavourable impression?

Note: Dont know/Refused not shown

Ed Stelmach top choice for Premier

Q
And which of the following leaders would make the best Premier of Alberta?

22

Note: Refused (1%) not shown

The Snapshot Question

PCs have a plurality, and have widened their lead over Wildrose Alliance. Q Now, if a provincial election were held today, which partys candidate would you vote
for in your local riding? Would it be?

24

Liberal candidate candidate PC

NDP candidate

The Other Undecided/DK Wildrose Alliance candidate Note: Refused, Would not vote (5%)
not shown

Almost a third of those decided and leaning would vote PC

Q
Now, if a provincial election were held today, which partys candidate would you vote for in your local riding? Would it be? [Vote + lean]

25

PC Liberal candidate candidate

NDP candidat e

The Wildrose Alliance candidate

Other

Note: Refused, Would not vote (5%) not shown

PCs lead with 40% of decided vote, opening a gap on The Wildrose Alliance riding? Would it held today, which partys Q Now, if a provincial election werebe? [Decided Vote] candidate would you vote for in your local

26

Liberal candidate

PC candidate

NDP candidat e

The Wildrose Alliance candidate

Other

PCs lead in Edmonton and rural; statistical tie in Calgary

Q
Now, if a provincial election were held today, which partys candidate would you vote for in your local riding? Would it be? [Decided vote] Calgary

27

Edmonto n

Rural

PC NDP Liberal Wildrose

PC voters vs. Wildrose voters (June & Oct. 2010): Really not all that different
8% 2 6% 7 2% 5 2% 5

28

P C

W ro e ild s

P C

W ro e ild s

Attend church at least once a week

Believe govt should be doing more or at least the same to protect free, high quality healthcare.

6% 3

6% 3

8% 4

6% 8

P C

W ro e ild s

P C

W ro e ild s

Agree that the profit system teaches people the value of hard work and success

Believe govt should be doing more or at least the same to reduce GHGs.

29

Key Findings Summary

PC brand strengths are leadership, competence, team, responsibility. Premier Stelmachs brand strengths are accomplishment, competence and leadership. Also cares about voters, balances regional interests and is reliable. Wildrose supporters similar to PC voters in attitudes, demographics, and position on issues.

Key Findings Summary

The PC party has improved its position since June
Decided vote lead doubles from 7 to 14 points Gains in Edmonton and Calgary stable in rural Underlying party numbers also show improvements

The Premier has improved his standing since June

Best Premier - leading by 8 Favourables up 6 and unfavourables down 9 Underlying numbers all show similar gains

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Contact Information

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