Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels: NBCFM Research

NBCFM Research | Industry Note
June 15, 2022
INDUSTRY RATING Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels

Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels: Commodity Forecast Update
Overweight
(NBF Economics & Strategy Group)
Since last updating our commodity price assumptions in early April, commodity prices have
moved materially higher across the board, necessitating us to once again update our price
forecast to better align with strip. Our overall changes and price assumptions relative to strip
can be referenced in Exhibits 1 and 2. In tandem with our commodity forecast update, our
2022e and 2023e total cash flow estimates are up by 21% and 15%, respectively, driving our
target prices (which remain based on a 2023e EV/DACF multiple) higher by 16% on average,
implying an average total return of 55%.
Overall, our bullish sentiment toward the Energy sector remains intact. Energy, and more
specifically the E&P group, continues to lead the pack in the S&P/TSX Composite Index as
the top-performing sector, with our entire coverage hitting 52-week highs in recent weeks
(and a handful even hitting all-time highs). Given how tight supply fundamentals are, we
believe this relative outperformance is sustainable, even as we consider the prospect of an
inflationary/rising rate environment, acknowledging that energy has historically outperformed
during inflationary periods. Even with the recent market sell-off, the setup remains compelling,
with our coverage group now trading, on average, at 3.1x 2023e EV/DACF (and a FCF yield of
+20%). Take your pick of the litter, but our preferred names remain CPG, CVE, HWX, TVE
and WCP for oil exposure, and ARX, BIR, SDE and TOU for gas exposure.
Commodity Forecast Changes

For a variety of reasons, we remain constructive on both crude oil and natural gas supply/
demand fundamentals over the near to medium term, notwithstanding growing concerns of a
global recession. Our macro thoughts on both commodities and our detailed forecast changes
are highlighted within.
Exhibit 1: NBF Commodity Price Revisions
2022 2023 2024+

Previous Revised %Δ Previous Revised %Δ Previous Revised %Δ
Crude Oil
WTI (US$/bbl) 95.00 106.25 12% 90.00 93.75 4% 85.00 85.00 0%
Edmonton Par Differential (US$/Bbl) -2.47 -1.84 26% -4.00 -4.00 0% -4.00 -4.50 -13%
Edmonton Par (C$/bbl) 117.00 132.00 13% 107.50 112.25 4% 103.75 103.25 0%
Edmonton C5+ Differential ($US/bbl) 0.80 -1.46 283% -1.50 -3.00 -100% -2.50 -2.50 0%
Edmonton Condensate ($C/bbl) 121.25 132.50 9% 110.75 113.50 2% 105.75 105.75 0%
WCS Differential (US$/Bbl) -12.50 -14.30 -14% -13.00 -15.00 -15% -13.50 -13.00 4%
WCS (C$/Bbl) 104.25 116.25 12% 96.25 98.50 2% 91.75 92.25 1%
Brent (US$/Bbl) 99.00 109.25 10% 95.00 98.50 4% 90.00 90.00 0%
NYMEX 3-2-1 Crack Spread (US$/Bbl) 25.25 37.75 50% 20.00 28.00 40% 20.00 25.00 25%
Natural Gas - - - -
NYMEX (US$/mcf) 4.90 6.75 38% 4.00 5.80 45% 3.50 5.00 43%
Research: NBCFM Energy AECO - NYMEX Basis (US$/mcf) -1.20 -1.70 42% -1.00 -1.35 35% -0.90 -1.25 39%
AECO (C$/mcf) 4.70 6.35 35% 3.75 5.50 47% 3.35 4.80 43%
Analyst Travis Wood
(403) 290-5102 ● [email protected] NBP (C$/mcf) 40.15 30.85 -23% 30.00 26.25 -13% 20.00 20.00 0%
Analyst Dan Payne, CFA Currency - -

(403) 290-5441 ● [email protected] USD Exchange Rate ($C/$US) 0.79 0.79 0% 0.80 0.80 0% 0.78 0.78 0%
Associate Logan Fisher Source: NBF, Bloomberg

(403) 441-0933 ● [email protected]
Associate Nick Stevenson
Associate Jacob Swan
Associate Trevor Martensson For required disclosures, please refer to the end of the document.
Industry Note
NBCFM Research | June 15, 2022
Macro Musings…
Crude Oil; Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop
The crude oil market remains characterized by volatility following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, in
our view, supply/demand fundamentals suggest continued upward pressure on prices, underscored by
declining Russian production in light of EU sanctions (currently ~11 mmbbl/d), exhaustion of OPEC+ spare
capacity and dwindling inventories (despite unprecedented SPR releases). Russian crude oil accounts for a
meaningful portion of the global supply complex, and EU sanctions on Russian imports should materially
impact volumes on a go-forward basis. For context, according to the EIA’s latest forecast (see Appendix 3 for
EIA supply/demand imbalance), EU sanctions could ultimately impact Russian production by ~20% (or ~2
mmbbl/d) by year-end 2023. Meanwhile, OPEC+’s struggles to meet its oil production targets have been
well-documented, insinuating that realistically, only a handful of members remain with spare capacity,
which likely explains the market's skepticism towards its capability of filling the void through its recently
announced 50% hike to its phased production targets for July and August (increasing to 648 mbbl/d from 432
mbbl/d, previously). Moreover, U.S. production remains well below pre-pandemic levels and any meaningful
growth outside private operators will be stymied by a reallocation of capital to shareholder returns, supply
chain constraints (i.e., OFS labor, materials, etc.) and de-grading inventory. As such, the market may be
hard-pressed to make up for declining Russian production in the near term.
On the demand side of the equation, despite continued COVID-related lockdowns across China, global
demand has seemingly recovered to pre-pandemic levels as we head into the summer driving season.
However, inflation continues to run hot with the latest CPI print in the U.S. showing prices up 8.6% y/y, the
highest increase in over 40 years, raising concerns the global economy is heading towards a recession, which
could pose a threat to demand. Consistent with our last commodity price update, we would suggest that any
potential demand loss may be somewhat limited given i) we see demand remaining in recovery mode, ii) the
duration and severity of a possible recession are unknown and iii) jet fuel demand (i.e., kerosene) remains
below historical levels and crude products (notably, gasoline) are estimated to have low elasticity.
To that end, we have revised our WTI forecast to better reflect the forward curve, which remains steeply
backwardated, increasing our 2022e price assumption by +12% to US$106.25/bbl (from US$95/bbl), while
only marginally raising our 2023e price assumption by 4% to US$93.75/bbl (from US$90/bbl). Our longer-term
pricing assumption (2024+) remains unchanged at US$85/bbl. On the differential front, we have slightly
widened our WCS differential assumption for 2022e and 2023e to US$14.30/bbl (from US$12.50/bbl) and
US$15/bbl (from US$13/bbl), respectively, noting that the recent widening of the WCS differential is not a
function of a lack of pipeline capacity, but rather, amongst other reasons, softening demand (despite major
oil sands turnarounds) as sour barrels from recent SPR releases have flooded the USGC market, impacting the
need for heavy crudes. However, we would be remiss to not point out that absolute WCS price levels remain
strong given the decoupling between the CAD and oil. Lastly, we have increased our 3-2-1 Crack Spread
pricing assumption, which we use as a proxy for refining margins for our integrated names (i.e., CVE, IMO,
SU), to US$37.75/bbl (from US$25.25/bbl) and US$28/bbl (from US$20/bbl) in 2022e and 2023e,
respectively.
Natural Gas; Structurally Well-Supported
Similarly, the natural gas commodity landscape has also experienced significant volatility following Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine, but supply/demand fundamentals remain well-supported, as we highlighted in our
recent natural gas piece (LINK). To summarize, on the demand front, North American net exports continue
to trend higher (13 Bcf/d by year-end 2022), exacerbated by geopolitical conflicts, as domestic producers
look to participate in the global LNG market. Meanwhile, power burn has undergone structural change with
the retirement of ~33% of coal-fired power generating capacity since 2005, in turn lowering elasticity. As a
result, consumption from the power sector is expected to remain robust (power burn forecast at 31.5 Bcf/d
or ~20% above historical average through 2022e and 2023e). However, it is worth mentioning that the
recently announced 90-day shutdown at the Freeport LNG export facility due to an explosion, which
accounts for ~2 Bcf/d (or ~20% of U.S. LNG exports), implies a change to the storage forecast by ~180 Bcf (or
+6% through year-end), exiting at a deficit of -8% deficit to historical (vs. prior forecast -14%), which may
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Industry Note
soften the outlook in the near term. Flipping to the supply side, in a similar dynamic to crude oil, a
decoupling of the rig count from the price complex can be explained by return of capital initiatives and
supply chain impediments.
Taking this all into account, we have increased our 2022e and 2023e forecasts for NYMEX to US$6.75/mcf
(+38% from US$4.90/mcf) and US$5.80/mcf (+45% from US$4.00/mcf), respectively, reinforcing our view that
the long-term pricing for the commodity has been reset in the US$4.00-6.00/mcf range for the foreseeable
future. On the AECO front, we have similarly increased our 2022e and 2023e forecast to C$6.35/mcf (+35%
from C$4.70/mcf) and C$5.50/mcf (+47% from C$3.75/mcf), respectively.
Exhibit 2: NBF vs. Strip Price Deck

Crude Oil: NBF Price Deck vs. Actual Strip Pricing Natural Gas: NBF Price Deck vs. Actual Strip Pricing
WTI Fwd Strip WTI NBF WCS FWD Strip WCS NBF NYMEX Fwd Strip NYMEX NBF AECO Fwd Strip AECO NBF
$150 $9.50
NYMEX (US$/mcf); AECO (C$/mcf)

$8.50
$130
WTI (US$/bbl); WCS (C$/bbl)
$7.50
$110
$6.50
$90 $5.50
$70 $4.50
$3.50
$50
$2.50
$30 $1.50
$10 $0.50
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
NBF Price Deck Strip Pricing as of June 15, 2022

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024+ 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024+
WTI US$/bbl $39.25 $68.00 $106.25 $93.75 $85.00 WTI US$/bbl $39.30 $68.00 $106.56 $95.72 $85.17
Brent US$/bbl $43.25 $70.75 $109.25 $98.50 $90.00 Brent US$/bbl $43.19 $70.83 $110.57 $101.55 $90.71
Edm. Par Diff. US$/bbl -$5.40 -$3.80 -$1.84 -$4.00 -$4.50 Edm. Par Diff. US$/bbl -$5.39 -$3.79 -$2.95 -$4.25 -$5.36
Edm. C5+ Diff US$/bbl -$1.60 $0.40 -$1.46 -$3.00 -$2.50 Edm. C5+ Diff US$/bbl -$1.64 $0.43 -$3.08 -$4.52 -$2.25
WCS Diff. US$/bbl -$12.70 -$13.30 -$14.30 -$15.00 -$13.00 WCS Diff. US$/bbl -$12.71 -$13.30 -$16.59 -$17.49 -$17.52
NYMEX Gas US$/mcf $2.15 $3.70 $6.75 $5.80 $5.00 NYMEX Gas US$/mcf $2.13 $3.72 $6.88 $6.23 $5.26
AECO C$/mcf $2.25 $3.65 $6.35 $5.50 $4.80 AECO C$/mcf $2.24 $3.64 $6.57 $6.12 $5.13
AECO Basis US$/mcf -$0.45 -$0.80 -$1.70 -$1.35 -$1.25 AECO Basis US$/mcf -$0.45 -$0.82 -$1.71 -$1.39 -$1.23
FX USD/CAD $0.75 $0.80 $0.79 $0.80 $0.78 FX USD/CAD $0.75 $0.80 $0.78 $0.77 $0.77
Source: NBF, Bloomberg
Target Price Revisions

In tandem with our commodity forecast update, our 2022e and 2023e total cash flow estimates are up by 21%
and 15%, respectively, driving our target prices higher by 16% on average, implying an average total return
of 55%. Our valuation approach remains based on a 2023e EV/DACF multiple (excl. TPZ which is predicated
on a 7% aggregate FCF yield), which we believe reflects long-term fair value and is supported by historical
forward-looking multiples.
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Industry Note
Appendix 1: Revised Targets & Estimates

Senior/Integrated
Target EV/DACF 2022E Production 2023E Production 2022E Capex 2023E Capex 2022E Cash Flow 2023E Cash Flow 2022E D
Rating Target 2023E Total Risk (boe/d) (boe/d) ($mln) ($mln) ($mln) ($mln) ($mln
Symbol New Old New Old %Δ New Old %Δ Return Rating New Old %Δ New Old %Δ New Old %Δ New Old %Δ New Old %Δ New Old %Δ
CNQ OP OP $115.00 $100.00 15% 6.0x 6.0x 0% 53% - 1,296,814 1,296,814 0% 1,311,567 1,311,567 0% $4,345 $4,345 0% $4,206 $4,206 0% $23,585 $19,888 19% $19,445 $17,715 10%
CVE OP OP $41.00 $35.00 17% 5.0x 5.0x 0% 49% - 778,017 767,809 1% 810,732 783,732 3% $3,075 $3,075 0% $3,176 $3,176 0% $14,878 $11,649 28% $13,278 $11,477 16%
IMO SP SP $93.00 $80.00 16% 6.5x 6.5x 0% 39% - 424,686 424,686 0% 454,359 454,359 0% $1,400 $1,400 0% $1,400 $1,400 0% $9,270 $7,312 27% $8,044 $7,199 12%
SU SP SP $73.00 $54.00 35% 5.0x 5.0x 0% 50% - 770,914 770,914 0% 816,016 816,016 0% $4,880 $4,880 0% $5,021 $5,021 0% $21,554 $17,158 26% $17,440 $14,726 18%
Median/Average/Total* 17% 5.5x 5.5x 0% 48% 3,270,432 3,260,223 0% 3,392,673 3,365,673 1% $13,700 $13,700 0% $13,803 $13,803 0% $69,287 $56,006 24% $58,207 $51,116 14%
Large/Mid Cap
AAV OP OP $15.00 $12.50 20% 4.0x 5.0x -20% 50% - 53,500 53,500 0% 55,500 55,500 0% $200 $200 0% $220 $220 0% $547 $436 26% $604 $430 41%
ARX OP OP $32.00 $24.00 33% 4.5x 4.5x 0% 66% - 343,305 343,305 0% 352,851 352,851 0% $1,175 $1,175 0% $1,565 $1,565 0% $3,922 $3,251 21% $3,906 $3,189 22%
BIR OP OP $15.00 $12.50 20% 3.5x 4.5x -22% 38% - 78,280 78,280 0% 81,000 81,000 0% $260 $260 0% $260 $260 0% $1,100 $805 37% $890 $643 38%
BTE OP OP $10.50 $9.50 11% 3.5x 3.5x 0% 35% - 84,000 84,000 0% 88,000 88,000 0% $523 $498 5% $559 $559 0% $1,371 $1,211 13% $1,568 $1,456 8%
CPG OP OP $23.00 $20.00 15% 4.0x 4.0x 0% 97% - 134,523 134,523 0% 142,904 142,904 0% $900 $900 0% $905 $905 0% $2,545 $2,234 14% $2,961 $2,712 9%
ERF (US$) OP OP $29.00 $24.00 21% 4.0x 4.0x 0% 77% - 99,495 99,495 0% 102,142 102,142 0% $420 $420 0% $420 $420 0% $1,361 $1,167 17% $1,426 $1,249 14%
FRU OP OP $22.00 $19.50 13% 10.0x 10.0x 0% 55% - 14,513 14,513 0% 14,874 14,874 0% $0 $0 0% $0 $0 0% $368 $313 17% $301 $275 10%
HWX OP OP $10.50 $10.50 0% 6.0x 6.0x 0% 49% - 13,000 13,000 0% 19,250 19,250 0% $230 $230 0% $210 $210 0% $338 $299 13% $366 $355 3%
KEL OP OP $11.00 $10.00 10% 3.5x 4.0x -13% 52% - 31,000 31,000 0% 40,000 40,000 0% $265 $265 0% $350 $250 40% $421 $354 19% $519 $415 25%
MEG OP OP $32.00 $32.00 0% 5.0x 5.0x 0% 46% - 95,811 95,811 0% 99,762 99,762 0% $375 $375 0% $383 $383 0% $2,386 $2,104 13% $1,530 $1,571 -3%
NVA SP SP $19.00 $14.50 31% 3.5x 3.5x 0% 53% - 68,000 68,000 0% 80,000 80,000 0% $375 $365 3% $375 $350 7% $1,024 $837 22% $1,077 $841 28%
OVV (US$) OP OP $115.00 $90.00 28% 4.0x 4.0x 0% 115% - 507,643 507,643 0% 512,922 512,922 0% $1,750 $1,750 0% $1,836 $1,836 0% $4,839 $4,449 9% $6,568 $5,463 20%
PEY OP OP $23.00 $18.00 28% 4.0x 4.0x 0% 59% - 103,527 103,527 0% 112,446 112,446 0% $375 $375 0% $379 $379 0% $1,027 $854 20% $981 $826 19%
PIPE SP SP $7.50 $7.00 7% 3.0x 3.5x -14% 36% - 32,000 32,000 0% 41,000 41,000 0% $235 $230 2% $250 $250 0% $479 $398 20% $600 $497 21%
POU OP OP $50.00 $45.00 11% 4.0x 4.5x -11% 40% - 93,000 93,000 0% 107,500 107,500 0% $600 $580 3% $627 $607 3% $1,439 $1,193 21% $1,617 $1,352 20%
PSK SP SP $27.00 $24.00 13% 14.0x 14.0x 0% 46% - 23,743 23,743 0% 23,742 23,742 0% $0 $0 nmf $0 $0 nmf $522 $446 17% $449 $407 10%
SDE OP OP $22.50 $18.00 25% 3.0x 3.5x -14% 64% - 70,500 70,500 0% 78,000 78,000 0% $330 $330 0% $330 $330 0% $927 $741 25% $1,018 $813 25%
TOU OP OP $95.00 $75.00 27% 5.0x 5.0x 0% 32% - 500,000 500,000 0% 515,000 515,000 0% $1,285 $1,285 0% $1,378 $1,315 5% $5,202 $4,072 28% $5,267 $4,209 25%
TPZ OP OP $32.00 $27.50 16% N/A N/A nmf 51% - 16,600 16,600 0% 17,700 17,700 0% $3 $3 0% $3 $3 0% $366 $324 13% $370 $325 14%
TVE OP OP $8.50 $8.50 0% 4.5x 4.5x 0% 53% - 46,700 46,700 0% 48,600 48,600 0% $315 $315 0% $278 $278 0% $807 $747 8% $798 $750 6%
VET OP OP $52.00 $53.00 -2% 3.5x 3.5x 0% 84% - 91,349 91,349 0% 99,775 99,775 0% $500 $500 0% $530 $530 0% $2,044 $2,112 -3% $2,219 $2,242 -1%
WCP OP OP $20.00 $17.50 14% 5.0x 5.0x 0% 84% - 131,989 131,989 0% 134,193 134,193 0% $520 $520 0% $560 $560 0% $2,598 $2,200 18% $2,198 $1,987 11%
Median/Average/Total* 15% 4.0x 4.5x 0% 58% 2,632,478 2,632,478 0% 2,767,161 2,767,161 0% $10,636 $10,576 1% $11,416 $11,208 2% $35,633 $30,546 17% $37,234 $32,006 16%
Small Cap
CR SP SP $7.50 $6.00 25% 3.0x 3.5x -14% 35% S 32,000 32,000 0% 32,000 32,000 0% $90 $88 3% $75 $60 25% $325 $273 19% $353 $265 33%
KEC OP OP $27.50 $20.00 38% 3.0x 2.5x 20% 74% - 16,000 16,000 0% 23,000 23,000 0% $295 $295 0% $295 $295 0% $267 $256 5% $404 $360 12%
LOU SP SP $1.20 $1.10 9% 3.5x 3.5x 0% 43% S 10,750 10,750 0% 11,250 11,250 0% $58 $58 0% $58 $58 0% $185 $166 11% $206 $195 6%
SGY OP OP $16.50 $14.50 14% 3.0x 3.0x 0% 46% S 21,500 21,500 0% 21,500 21,500 0% $124 $124 0% $124 $124 0% $392 $337 16% $436 $396 10%
YGR SP SP $4.50 $3.50 29% 2.0x 3.0x -33% 23% S 12,000 12,000 0% 12,000 12,000 0% $105 $105 0% $60 $60 0% $230 $192 20% $200 $168 19%
Median/Average/Total* 25% 3.0x 3.0x 0% 44% 92,250 92,250 0% 99,750 99,750 0% $672 $670 0% $612 $597 3% $1,399 $1,224 14% $1,599 $1,384 16%
NBF Coverage Median/Average/Total* 16% 4.0x 4.3x 0% 55% 5,995,159 5,984,951 0% 6,259,585 6,232,585 0% $25,008 $24,946 0% $25,830 $25,608 1% $106,319 $87,777 21% $97,040 $84,506 15%
1. Stock Rating: OP - Outperform; SP - Sector Perform; UP - Underperform; R - Restricted; T - Tender; UR - Under Review
2. Risk Rating: S - Speculative; R - Restricted
*Note: Total Return is an average calculation, Production and Capex are sum calculations, and the remainder are median calculations. Priced as of 2022-06-15 close.
Source: NBF, Bloomberg, Company Reports
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Industry Note
Appendix 2: Comparables (1/2)

Coverage Summary & Valuation
Senior/Integrated
Div Total Facility
Symbol Analyst Price Rating Target Yield Return Sh. OS (1) 30D AVT Mkt. Cap Net Debt EV EV/Prod'n ($/BOE/d) EV/DACF Net Debt/CF Util. Dividend Payout Net Payout FCF Yield
Company Jun-15 (mln) ($mln) ($mln) ($mln) ($mln) 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E %Δ 2022E 2023E 2022E 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E
CNRL CNQ TW $77.18 OP $115.00 3.9% 52.9% 1,197.7 $496.5 $90,670 $15,174 $105,844 $70,668 $59,985 3.8x 3.9x 3% 0.3x 0.1x 0% 13% 16% 32% 37% 19% 16%
Cenovus CVE TW $27.71 OP $41.00 1.5% 49.5% 1,228.8 $228.0 $55,454 $7,702 $63,156 $65,892 $48,802 3.4x 2.9x -13% 0.1x 0.1x 0% 5% 5% 25% 29% 22% 24%
Imperial Oil IMO TW $67.90 SP $93.00 2.0% 39.0% 774.9 $89.7 $46,062 $2,795 $48,857 $100,200 $81,044 4.6x 4.5x -1% 0.0x -0.4x 57% 9% 10% 24% 28% 17% 15%
Suncor SU TW $50.02 SP $73.00 3.8% 49.7% 1,594.4 $599.1 $73,513 $13,411 $86,924 $92,083 $71,082 3.2x 3.2x 1% 0.3x 0.3x 36% 12% 12% 34% 41% 22% 19%
Sector Med./Avg/Total (2) 2.8% 48% $353.3 $265,699 $39,082 $304,781 $81,376 $65,533 3.6x 3.6x 0% 0.2x 0.0x 18% 10% 11% 29% 33% 21% 18%
Large/Mid Cap
Div Total Facility
Symbol Analyst Price Rating Target Yield Return Sh. OS (1) 30D AVT Mkt. Cap Net Debt EV EV/Prod'n ($/BOE/d) EV/DACF Net Debt/CF Util. Dividend Payout Net Payout FCF Yield
Company Jun-15 (mln) ($mln) ($mln) ($mln) ($mln) 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E %Δ 2022E 2023E 2022E 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E
Advantage AAV DP $10.03 OP $15.00 0.0% 49.6% 185.9 $8.7 $1,963 $165 $2,128 $33,358 $25,234 3.2x 2.4x -26% -0.3x -0.9x 0% 0% 0% 37% 36% 18% 20%
ARC ARX TW $19.62 OP $32.00 2.4% 65.5% 353.4 $142.1 $13,607 $2,021 $15,628 $37,309 $30,495 3.2x 2.7x -15% 0.2x -0.3x 0% 8% 7% 38% 48% 20% 17%
Birchcliff BIR DP $10.91 OP $15.00 0.7% 38.2% 265.9 $24.9 $2,960 $499 $3,539 $34,156 $25,547 2.4x 2.4x 0% -0.3x -1.0x 0% 2% 3% 26% 32% 28% 21%
Baytex BTE DP $7.80 OP $10.50 0.0% 34.6% 559.2 $58.1 $4,475 $1,397 $5,872 $60,325 $46,116 3.5x 2.6x -27% 0.4x -0.3x 0% 0% 0% 38% 36% 19% 22%
Crescent Point CPG TW $11.83 OP $23.00 2.2% 96.6% 549.4 $87.1 $6,870 $2,085 $8,955 $54,668 $38,100 2.8x 1.8x -35% 0.3x -0.4x 0% 5% 5% 41% 36% 22% 28%
Enerplus ($US) ERF TW $16.50 OP $29.00 1.0% 76.8% 240.6 $9.0 $4,024 $779 $4,803 $38,911 $28,424 2.8x 2.1x -27% 0.2x -0.5x 0% 3% 3% 34% 32% 25% 27%
Freehold FRU TW $14.77 OP $22.00 6.5% 55.5% 118.5 $11.7 $2,225 $101 $2,326 $144,679 $130,636 5.7x 6.4x 13% -0.3x -0.9x 0% 38% 48% 38% 48% 10% 7%
Headwater HWX DP $7.06 OP $10.50 0.0% 48.7% 88.9 $9.1 $1,654 -$93 $1,561 $113,779 $68,717 4.4x 3.7x -17% -0.6x -1.0x nmf 0% 0% 68% 57% 6% 9%
Kelt KEL DP $7.26 OP $11.00 0.0% 51.5% 186.9 $4.3 $1,373 $28 $1,402 $41,495 $27,941 3.1x 2.2x -29% -0.3x -0.6x 0% 0% 0% 63% 67% 11% 12%
MEG MEG TW $21.88 OP $32.00 0.0% 46.3% 300.1 $60.9 $6,714 $2,328 $9,042 $72,361 $55,330 2.7x 3.3x 21% 0.5x 0.6x 16% 0% 0% 16% 25% 35% 25%
NuVista NVA DP $12.42 SP $19.00 0.0% 53.0% 225.3 $13.1 $2,917 $480 $3,397 $41,469 $26,476 2.7x 2.0x -24% -0.2x -0.8x 0% 0% 0% 37% 35% 22% 24%
Ovintiv ($US) OVV TW $54.01 OP $115.00 1.9% 114.8% 1,439.9 $56.5 $13,935 $5,245 $19,180 $32,838 $23,317 3.3x 1.8x -46% 0.7x 0.2x 6% 5% 3% 41% 31% 21% 42%
Peyto PEY TW $14.86 OP $23.00 4.0% 58.8% 164.9 $12.9 $2,499 $1,099 $3,597 $29,621 $22,859 2.9x 2.6x -10% 0.5x 0.1x 17% 10% 10% 46% 49% 22% 20%
Pipestone PIPE DP $5.52 SP $7.50 0.0% 35.9% 189.6 $3.9 $1,551 $204 $1,755 $47,561 $28,574 3.1x 2.0x -36% -0.1x -0.6x 0% 0% 0% 49% 42% 16% 23%
Paramount POU DP $36.62 OP $50.00 3.3% 39.8% 130.9 $22.4 $5,327 $454 $5,781 $56,329 $41,174 3.6x 2.8x -23% -0.1x -0.6x 0% 11% 11% 53% 50% 13% 15%
PrairieSky PSK TW $18.82 SP $27.00 2.6% 46.0% 233.9 $8.5 $4,495 $635 $5,130 $199,337 $185,269 9.0x 9.8x 9% 0.5x -0.2x 35% 22% 26% 22% 26% 9% 7%
Spartan Delta SDE DP $13.72 OP $22.50 0.0% 64.0% 1.1 $10.9 $2,323 $465 $2,788 $31,667 $19,796 2.4x 1.6x -34% -0.2x -0.8x 0% 0% 0% 36% 32% 25% 29%
Tourmaline TOU DP $72.67 OP $95.00 1.2% 32.0% 272.1 $109.5 $24,364 $967 $25,330 $46,289 $37,887 4.4x 3.8x -15% -0.3x -1.0x 0% 23% 5% 47% 31% 11% 15%
Topaz TPZ DP $21.92 OP $32.00 4.7% 50.7% 88.9 $7.1 $3,069 $234 $3,303 $192,011 $167,839 8.6x 8.0x -7% 0.0x -0.5x 13% 41% 41% 42% 41% 7% 7%
Tamarack TVE DP $5.63 OP $8.50 2.1% 53.1% 233.3 $24.7 $2,347 $462 $2,809 $58,580 $46,698 3.3x 2.9x -13% 0.2x -0.4x 26% 6% 7% 45% 42% 17% 18%
Vermilion VET TW $28.43 OP $52.00 0.8% 83.7% 153.2 $54.9 $4,613 $1,676 $6,289 $61,392 $39,668 2.7x 1.8x -33% 0.5x -0.3x 8% 2% 2% 26% 26% 33% 36%
Whitecap WCP TW $11.05 OP $20.00 3.3% 84.3% 413.2 $53.8 $6,836 $1,186 $8,022 $49,043 $37,709 2.5x 2.3x -6% -0.2x -0.9x 0% 8% 10% 28% 36% 27% 20%
Sector Med./Avg/Total (2) 2.6% 58% $36.1 $120,139 $22,418 $142,637 $48,302 $37,798 3.2x 2.5x -22% 0.1x -0.5x 0% 13% 13% 38% 36% 20% 20%
Small Cap
Div Total Facility
Analyst Price Rating Target Yield Return Sh. OS (1) 30D AVT Mkt. Cap Net Debt EV EV/Prod'n ($/BOE/d) EV/DACF Net Debt/CF Util. Dividend Payout Net Payout FCF Yield
Company Symbol Jun-15 (mln) ($mln) ($mln) ($mln) ($mln) 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E %Δ 2022E 2023E 2022E 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E
Crew CR DP $5.54 SP $7.50 0.0% 35.4% 157.7 $7.7 $890 $406 $1,296 $33,184 $24,486 3.1x 2.2x -28% 0.6x -0.3x 0% 0% 0% 28% 21% 27% 32%
Kiwetinohk KEC DP $15.82 OP $27.50 0.0% 73.8% 0.0 $0.8 $546 $45 $591 $48,791 $29,203 2.9x 1.7x -42% 0.3x -0.1x 21% 0% 0% 110% 73% -4% 16%
Lucero LOU DP $0.84 SP $1.20 0.0% 42.9% 192.0 $0.5 $448 $196 $644 $54,383 $38,758 3.1x 2.2x -30% 0.1x -0.6x 3% 0% 0% 31% 28% 22% 26%
Surge SGY DP $11.59 OP $16.50 3.6% 46.0% 323.3 $11.6 $1,009 $331 $1,341 $51,012 $38,214 2.6x 1.9x -26% 0.2x -0.4x 0% 5% 8% 36% 37% 25% 27%
Yangarra YGR DP $3.67 SP $4.50 0.0% 22.6% 85.4 $1.9 $329 $197 $526 $34,041 $22,372 1.7x 1.3x -22% 0.3x -0.3x 40% 0% 0% 46% 30% 37% 42%
Sector Med./Avg/Total (2) 3.6% 44% $4.5 $3,223 $1,176 $4,399 $48,791 $29,203 2.9x 1.9x -33% 0.3x -0.4x 3% 5% 8% 36% 30% 25% 27%
NBF Coverage Med./Avg/Total (2) 2.7% 55% $71.9 $389,061 $62,676 $451,816 $51,012 $38,100 3.1x 2.4x -23% 0.1x -0.4x 0% 12% 12% 37% 36% 21% 20%
(1) Forecast weighted average diluted shares outstanding
(2) Return, yield, AVT are average calculations, EV/DACF, EV/Production, PPS Growth and D/CF are median calculations and Net Debt, Market Cap and EV are total calculations
(3) FCF calculated as operating cash flow less E&D capex and cash dividends
Source: Bloomberg, Refinitiv, Company reports, NBF; Price as of: 15-Jun-22
5
Industry Note
Appendix 2: Comparables (2/2)

Production and Operating Analysis
Senior/Integrated
Symbol Production (mboe/d) Abs. Growth PPS Growth 2022E Netback ($/BOE) 2023E Netback ($/BOE) CFPS CFPS Growth Cash Flow ($mln) E&D Capex ($mln) FCF ($mln) (3)
Company 2022E %Gas 2023E %Gas 22/21 23/22 22/21 23/22 Cash Cost CF NB CF Mgn Cash Cost CF NB CF Mgn 2022E 2023E 22/21 23/22 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E
CNRL CNQ 1,296.8 26% 1,311.6 26% 5% 1% 9% 12% -$66.26 $49.79 43% -$59.19 $40.62 41% $20.55 $18.73 78% -9% $23,585 $19,445 $4,345 $4,206 $16,068 $12,208
Cenovus CVE 778.0 17% 810.7 16% -2% 4% 2% 24% -$40.21 $52.39 59% -$37.91 $44.87 54% $7.57 $8.02 112% 6% $14,878 $13,278 $3,075 $3,176 $11,103 $9,391
Imperial Oil IMO 424.7 4% 454.4 4% -1% 7% 9% 14% -$124.34 $59.80 32% -$109.38 $48.50 31% $14.34 $13.26 100% -7% $9,270 $8,044 $1,400 $1,400 $7,035 $5,821
Suncor SU 770.9 0% 816.0 0% 5% 6% 13% 25% -$55.05 $76.60 58% -$52.58 $58.56 53% $15.56 $14.92 126% -4% $21,554 $17,440 $4,880 $5,021 $14,181 $10,272
Sector Med./Avg/Total (2) 3,270.4 15% 3,392.7 14% 2% 5% 9% 19% -$71.47 $59.65 51% -$64.77 $48.14 47% $14.51 $13.73 106% -6% $69,287 $58,207 $13,700 $13,803 $48,387 $37,692
Large/Mid Cap
Advantage AAV 53.5 90% 55.5 89% 8% 4% 10% 4% -$14.77 $28.01 70% -$12.45 $29.82 72% $2.79 $3.09 136% 10% $547 $604 $200 $220 $347 $384
ARC ARX 343.3 62% 352.9 63% 14% 3% 8% 11% -$22.85 $31.30 66% -$24.02 $30.33 59% $5.96 $6.41 54% 8% $3,922 $3,906 $1,175 $1,565 $2,446 $2,048
Birchcliff BIR 78.3 80% 81.0 80% 0% 3% 3% 3% -$16.63 $38.51 69% -$16.25 $30.10 65% $4.13 $3.34 110% -19% $1,100 $890 $260 $260 $817 $604
Baytex BTE 84.0 18% 88.0 18% 5% 5% 5% 5% -$42.12 $44.70 59% -$37.67 $48.82 57% $2.41 $2.75 85% 14% $1,371 $1,568 $523 $559 $848 $1,009
Crescent Point CPG 134.5 19% 142.9 20% 1% 6% 2% 7% -$34.35 $51.87 67% -$29.89 $56.76 66% $4.45 $5.22 73% 17% $2,545 $2,961 $900 $905 $1,509 $1,910
Enerplus ($US) ERF 99.5 39% 102.1 39% 8% 3% 19% 10% -$18.50 $37.48 73% -$23.68 $38.25 62% $5.81 $6.49 N/A 12% $1,361 $1,426 $420 $420 $903 $968
Freehold FRU 14.5 40% 14.9 40% 23% 2% 11% 3% -$11.92 $69.47 85% -$13.33 $55.51 81% $2.44 $2.00 76% -18% $368 $301 $0 $0 $229 $157
Headwater HWX 13.0 8% 19.3 6% 76% 48% 60% 48% -$39.64 $71.21 65% -$43.12 $52.14 55% $1.42 $1.54 161% 8% $338 $366 $230 $210 $108 $156
Kelt KEL 31.0 63% 40.0 62% 48% 29% 45% 29% -$21.89 $37.21 66% -$20.28 $35.53 64% $2.16 $2.66 155% 23% $421 $519 $265 $350 $156 $169
MEG MEG 95.8 0% 99.8 0% 2% 4% 6% 30% -$43.80 $68.22 61% -$57.37 $41.91 42% $8.07 $6.48 210% -20% $2,386 $1,530 $375 $383 $2,011 $1,148
NuVista NVA 68.0 61% 80.0 62% 30% 18% 26% 18% -$24.63 $41.27 67% -$23.03 $36.88 61% $4.26 $4.48 209% 5% $1,024 $1,077 $375 $375 $649 $702
Ovintiv ($US) OVV 507.6 48% 512.9 48% -5% 1% -2% 15% -$18.52 $26.11 70% -$18.31 $35.07 66% $19.02 $29.45 56% 55% $4,839 $6,568 $1,750 $1,836 $2,847 $4,508
Peyto PEY 103.5 87% 112.4 87% 14% 9% 13% 9% -$10.71 $27.19 77% -$10.55 $23.89 74% $6.03 $5.79 118% -4% $1,027 $981 $375 $379 $550 $500
Pipestone PIPE 32.0 55% 41.0 54% 30% 28% 30% 28% -$21.43 $41.04 69% -$19.97 $40.12 67% $1.70 $2.13 188% 25% $479 $600 $235 $250 $244 $350
Paramount POU 93.0 54% 107.5 53% 13% 16% 9% 15% -$30.34 $42.40 62% -$27.67 $41.22 60% $9.72 $10.92 188% 12% $1,439 $1,617 $600 $627 $681 $812
PrairieSky PSK 23.7 44% 23.7 44% 20% 0% 12% 0% -$14.05 $60.23 81% -$11.72 $51.79 82% $2.19 $1.88 79% -14% $522 $449 $0 $0 $407 $334
Spartan Delta SDE 70.5 60% 78.0 58% 48% 11% 14% 11% -$21.50 $36.03 65% -$18.22 $35.77 66% $5.36 $5.89 137% 10% $927 $1,018 $330 $330 $597 $688
Tourmaline TOU 500.0 77% 515.0 77% 13% 3% 6% 3% -$15.49 $28.51 69% -$14.13 $28.02 68% $15.30 $15.47 65% 1% $5,202 $5,267 $1,285 $1,378 $2,733 $3,633
Topaz TPZ 16.6 76% 17.7 75% 18% 7% 2% 6% -$2.61 $60.33 96% -$2.03 $57.27 97% $2.55 $2.56 66% 0% $366 $370 $3 $3 $214 $217
Tamarack TVE 46.7 26% 48.6 25% 35% 4% 9% 2% -$39.60 $47.34 58% -$36.03 $44.99 56% $1.81 $1.76 92% -3% $807 $798 $315 $278 $443 $466
Vermilion VET 91.3 49% 99.8 49% 7% 9% 7% 10% -$37.81 $61.43 65% -$34.19 $60.94 64% $12.45 $13.63 123% 10% $2,044 $2,219 $500 $530 $1,505 $1,650
Whitecap WCP 132.0 27% 134.2 27% 18% 2% 13% 2% -$37.63 $54.04 62% -$37.22 $44.88 55% $4.12 $3.49 126% -15% $2,598 $2,198 $520 $560 $1,862 $1,413
Sector Med./Avg/Total (2) 2,632.5 54% 2,767.2 54% 14% 4% 10% 10% -$24.58 $45.63 67% -$24.14 $41.82 64% $5.64 $6.25 118% 8% $35,633 $37,234 $10,636 $11,416 $22,106 $23,827
Small Cap
Crew CR 32.0 80% 32.0 80% 21% 0% 23% 0% -$13.84 $27.86 73% -$11.72 $30.25 73% $2.04 $2.22 148% 9% $325 $353 $90 $75 $235 $278
Kiwetinohk KEC 16.0 50% 23.0 50% 63% 44% 18% 44% -$27.47 $45.79 71% -$28.83 $48.12 64% $6.08 $9.17 297% 51% $267 $404 $295 $295 -$28 $109
Lucero LOU 10.8 15% 11.3 15% 2% 5% -32% 3% -$42.13 $47.08 59% -$34.43 $50.19 59% $0.28 $0.30 91% 10% $185 $206 $58 $58 $127 $149
Surge SGY 21.5 14% 21.5 14% 22% 0% -22% 0% -$45.90 $49.91 60% -$36.65 $55.53 61% $4.49 $5.00 150% 11% $392 $436 $124 $124 $249 $275
Yangarra YGR 12.0 53% 12.0 53% 34% 0% 31% 0% -$17.17 $52.48 76% -$14.94 $45.67 75% $2.51 $2.18 147% -13% $230 $200 $105 $60 $125 $140
Sector Med./Avg/Total (2) 92.3 48% 99.8 48% 22% 0% 18% 0% -$29.30 $44.63 71% -$25.31 $45.95 64% $3.08 $3.78 148% 10% $1,399 $1,599 $672 $612 $709 $951
NBF Med./Avg/Total (2) 5,995.2 33% 6,259.6 32% 14% 4% 9% 10% -$31.39 $47.28 66% -$29.57 $43.30 64% $6.37 $6.81 120% 8% $106,319 $97,040 $25,008 $25,830 $71,202 $62,471
(1) Forecast weighted average diluted shares outstanding
(2) Return, yield, AVT are average calculations, EV/DACF, EV/Production, PPS Growth and D/CF are median calculations and Net Debt, Market Cap and EV are total calculations
(3) FCF calculated as operating cash flow less E&D capex and cash dividends
Source: Bloomberg, Refinitiv, Company reports, NBF; Price as of: 15-Jun-22
6
Industry Note
Appendix 3: EIA Crude Oil & Natural Gas Forecasts
7
Industry Note
Disclosures
PRICE, RATING AND TARGET HISTORY: I = Initiation, OP = Outperform, SP = Sector Perform, UP = Underperform, UR = Under Review, R = Restricted; T = Tender (Source: Factset, NBF)
ARC Resources Ltd. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

OP:$10.00 OP:$10.50 OP:$9.00 OP:$8.50 OP:$7.00 OP:$9.00 OP:$10.50 OP:$8.00 OP:$7.00 OP:$9.00 OP:$13.00 OP:$12.50
06/24/2019 07/15/2019 10/01/2019 02/06/2020 03/09/2020 04/22/2020 10/15/2020 11/15/2020 01/05/2021 02/11/2021 02/18/2021 04/14/2021
25
20
15
Price (CAD)
10
0
Jul 19 Oct 19 Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22
OP:$15.00 OP:$13.50 OP:$18.50 OP:$20.00 OP:$21.00 OP:$24.00
05/13/2021 07/18/2021 09/27/2021 01/05/2022 02/02/2022 04/13/2022
Closing Price
Canadian Natural Resources Limited Rating History as of 06/15/2022

OP:$45.00 OP:$43.00 SP:$43.00 SP:$44.00 SP:$42.00 SP:$40.00 SP:$39.00 SP:$30.00 SP:$27.00 SP:$25.00 OP:$39.00 OP:$40.00
06/24/2019 07/15/2019 10/01/2019 11/07/2019 12/04/2019 01/30/2020 03/05/2020 03/09/2020 03/10/2020 04/22/2020 06/23/2020 08/06/2020
90
80
70
60
50
Price (CAD)
40
30
20
10
10/15/2020 12/09/2020 01/05/2021 01/31/2021 02/18/2021 04/14/2021 06/16/2021 07/18/2021 08/05/2021 09/27/2021 11/04/2021 01/05/2022
OP:$74.00 OP:$90.00 OP:$100.00
01/11/2022 02/02/2022 04/13/2022
Closing Price
Cenovus Energy Inc. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

06/24/2019 07/15/2019 07/25/2019 10/01/2019 01/30/2020 02/12/2020 03/09/2020 03/10/2020 04/02/2020 04/22/2020 06/24/2020 10/15/2020
35
30
25
20
15
Price (CAD)
10
5
0
OP:$10.00 OP:$13.50 OP:$13.00 OP:$13.50 OP:$14.50 OP:$19.50 OP:$20.00 OP:$22.00 OP:$25.00 OP:$28.00 OP:$35.00
10/25/2020 01/05/2021 01/28/2021 02/18/2021 04/14/2021 06/16/2021 07/18/2021 09/27/2021 01/05/2022 02/02/2022 04/13/2022
Closing Price
8
Industry Note
Crescent Point Energy Corp. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

OP:$7.50 R:NM OP:$9.50 OP:$10.00 OP:$9.50 OP:$8.50 OP:$5.00 OP:$4.00 OP:$3.00 OP:$2.25 OP:$3.25 OP:$2.50
06/24/2019 09/05/2019 10/20/2019 11/14/2019 01/14/2020 01/30/2020 03/09/2020 03/16/2020 04/20/2020 04/22/2020 06/24/2020 10/15/2020
14
12
10
8
6
Price (CAD)
4
2
0
OP:$3.75 OP:$3.50 OP:$3.75 OP:$5.50 OP:$7.50 OP:$7.00 OP:$11.00 OP:$12.50 OP:$13.50 OP:$15.50 OP:$20.00
12/06/2020 01/05/2021 01/31/2021 02/17/2021 02/18/2021 04/14/2021 06/16/2021 09/27/2021 01/05/2022 02/02/2022 04/13/2022
Closing Price
Enerplus Corporation Rating History as of 06/15/2022

06/24/2019 08/09/2019 01/20/2020 01/30/2020 02/21/2020 03/09/2020 04/22/2020 06/24/2020 08/07/2020 10/15/2020 11/15/2020 01/05/2021
20
15
10
Price (USD)
5
0
R:NM OP:$7.50 OP:$10.50 OP:$9.50 OP:$10.00 OP:$10.50 OP:$9.50 OP:$14.00 OP:$13.50 OP:$17.00 OP:$19.00 OP:$20.00
01/25/2021 02/03/2021 02/18/2021 02/19/2021 04/08/2021 04/14/2021 05/13/2021 06/16/2021 08/05/2021 09/27/2021 01/05/2022 02/02/2022
OP:$24.00
04/13/2022
Closing Price
Freehold Royalties Ltd. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

OP:$10.00 OP:$10.50 SP:$9.50 OP:$9.00 OP:$6.00 OP:$4.50 SP:$4.25 SP:$4.50 R:NM OP:$7.50 OP:$9.00 OP:$10.00
06/24/2019 08/01/2019 10/01/2019 01/30/2020 03/09/2020 04/22/2020 06/23/2020 10/15/2020 11/24/2020 12/09/2020 02/18/2021 05/13/2021
18
16
14
12
10
Price (CAD)
8
6
4
2
OP:$11.50 OP:$12.00 R:NM OP:$13.00 OP:$15.00 OP:$15.50 OP:$17.00 OP:$18.00 OP:$19.50
06/16/2021 07/18/2021 09/08/2021 09/22/2021 09/27/2021 11/10/2021 01/05/2022 02/02/2022 04/13/2022
Closing Price
9
Industry Note
Imperial Oil Limited Rating History as of 06/15/2022

SP:$45.00 SP:$47.00 SP:$41.00 SP:$37.00 SP:$34.00 SP:$25.00 SP:$29.00 SP:$26.00 SP:$20.00 SP:$30.00 SP:$21.00 SP:$22.00
07/15/2019 10/01/2019 11/12/2019 01/30/2020 02/28/2020 03/09/2020 03/10/2020 03/31/2020 04/22/2020 06/24/2020 10/15/2020 11/19/2020
80
70
60
50
40
Price (CAD)
30
20
10
01/05/2021 01/31/2021 02/18/2021 04/14/2021 05/13/2021 06/16/2021 09/27/2021 10/20/2021 01/05/2022 02/02/2022 04/13/2022 05/04/2022
Closing Price
MEG Energy Corp. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

OP:$8.00 OP:$9.25 OP:$8.50 OP:$5.25 OP:$5.00 OP:$3.50 OP:$4.50 OP:$3.50 OP:$3.00 SP:$4.25 SP:$5.50 SP:$8.00
06/24/2019 01/16/2020 01/30/2020 03/09/2020 03/11/2020 04/22/2020 06/24/2020 10/15/2020 11/15/2020 12/08/2020 01/05/2021 02/18/2021
25
20
15
Price (CAD)
10
0
SP:$11.00 SP:$13.50 SP:$15.00 SP:$14.50 SP:$14.00 SP:$15.00 SP:$18.50 SP:$25.00 OP:$24.00 OP:$32.00
04/14/2021 06/16/2021 07/18/2021 07/23/2021 09/27/2021 11/08/2021 01/05/2022 02/02/2022 03/04/2022 04/13/2022
Closing Price
Ovintiv Inc. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

06/24/2019 07/31/2019 10/17/2019 10/31/2019 01/29/2020 01/30/2020 02/20/2020 03/09/2020 04/22/2020 05/08/2020 06/24/2020 07/29/2020
70
60
50
40
30
Price (USD)
20
10
0
10/15/2020 01/05/2021 01/31/2021 02/18/2021 04/14/2021 05/13/2021 06/16/2021 07/28/2021 09/27/2021 01/05/2022 02/02/2022 04/13/2022
Closing Price
10
Industry Note
Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

OP:$5.00 SP:$4.25 SP:$4.00 SP:$3.00 SP:$2.50 OP:$5.00 OP:$4.00 OP:$5.00 OP:$3.50 OP:$8.00 OP:$8.50 OP:$15.50
06/24/2019 10/01/2019 10/17/2019 01/30/2020 03/09/2020 04/22/2020 06/24/2020 10/15/2020 01/05/2021 02/18/2021 06/16/2021 09/27/2021
20
15
10
Price (CAD)
5
0
OP:$15.00 OP:$14.00 OP:$15.00 OP:$15.50 OP:$18.00
11/09/2021 01/05/2022 02/02/2022 03/09/2022 04/13/2022
Closing Price
PrairieSky Royalty Ltd. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

06/24/2019 07/15/2019 07/22/2019 10/28/2019 01/30/2020 02/10/2020 03/09/2020 04/22/2020 10/15/2020 01/05/2021 02/08/2021 02/18/2021
22
20
18
16
14
Price (CAD)
12
10
8
6
SP:$16.50 SP:$20.00 R:NM SP:$21.00 SP:$18.50 SP:$22.00 SP:$23.00 SP:$24.00
06/16/2021 09/27/2021 11/29/2021 12/15/2021 01/05/2022 02/02/2022 04/13/2022 04/18/2022
Closing Price
Suncor Energy Inc. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

OP:$56.00 OP:$55.00 SP:$49.00 SP:$48.00 SP:$47.00 SP:$43.00 SP:$32.00 SP:$36.00 SP:$27.00 SP:$23.00 SP:$27.00 SP:$28.00
06/24/2019 07/15/2019 10/01/2019 10/17/2019 10/31/2019 01/30/2020 03/09/2020 03/10/2020 03/24/2020 04/22/2020 06/24/2020 07/23/2020
60
50
40
Price (CAD)
30
20
10
10/15/2020 11/30/2020 01/05/2021 02/18/2021 04/14/2021 05/13/2021 06/16/2021 07/18/2021 07/29/2021 09/27/2021 01/05/2022 02/02/2022
SP:$52.00 SP:$54.00
02/03/2022 04/13/2022
Closing Price
11
Industry Note
Vermilion Energy Inc. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

OP:$35.00 OP:$36.00 OP:$28.00 SP:$24.00 SP:$20.00 UP:$17.50 UP:$9.00 UP:$4.75 UP:$3.25 SP:$6.00 SP:$8.00 SP:$7.00
06/24/2019 07/15/2019 07/29/2019 10/01/2019 10/31/2019 01/30/2020 03/06/2020 03/09/2020 03/16/2020 04/22/2020 05/25/2020 07/27/2020
35
30
25
20
15
Price (CAD)
10
5
0
SP:$6.00 SP:$5.00 SP:$4.75 SP:$7.00 SP:$6.50 SP:$7.00 SP:$9.50 SP:$10.00 SP:$14.00 SP:$13.50 SP:$18.00 OP:$19.00
09/24/2020 10/15/2020 11/15/2020 01/05/2021 01/18/2021 01/31/2021 02/18/2021 04/14/2021 06/16/2021 08/16/2021 09/27/2021 11/29/2021
OP:$30.00 OP:$34.00 OP:$53.00
01/05/2022 02/02/2022 04/13/2022
Closing Price
Whitecap Resources Inc. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

OP:$7.50 OP:$7.00 OP:$6.50 OP:$4.00 OP:$2.50 OP:$2.25 OP:$3.00 OP:$4.00 OP:$3.50 OP:$4.75 R:NM OP:$8.00
06/24/2019 08/26/2019 01/30/2020 03/09/2020 03/17/2020 04/22/2020 06/24/2020 08/31/2020 10/15/2020 12/06/2020 12/08/2020 02/24/2021
14
12
10
8
6
Price (CAD)
4
2
0
OP:$8.50 OP:$10.00 OP:$9.50 OP:$10.00 OP:$11.00 OP:$12.00 OP:$14.00 OP:$16.00 OP:$17.50
04/05/2021 06/16/2021 07/18/2021 07/29/2021 09/27/2021 10/05/2021 01/05/2022 02/02/2022 04/13/2022
Closing Price
Advantage Energy Ltd. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

06/24/2019 10/01/2019 01/30/2020 03/09/2020 04/13/2020 04/22/2020 06/24/2020 10/15/2020 01/05/2021 02/18/2021 02/26/2021 04/14/2021
12
10
8
6
Price (CAD)
4
2
0
OP:$5.50 OP:$9.00 OP:$10.00 OP:$11.00 OP:$12.50
06/16/2021 09/27/2021 01/05/2022 02/02/2022 04/13/2022
Closing Price
12
Industry Note
Lucero Energy Corp. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

OP:$2.00 OP:$1.75 OP:$1.50 OP:$1.35 OP:$1.10 SP:$0.35 SP:$0.20 SP:$0.25 SP:$0.20 SP:$0.15 SP:$0.20
06/24/2019 08/28/2019 10/01/2019 11/20/2019 01/30/2020 03/09/2020 03/27/2020 06/24/2020 08/21/2020 10/15/2020 01/05/2021
1.00
0.80
0.60
Price (CAD)
0.40
0.20
0.00
SP:$0.40 NA:NA SP:$1.00 SP:$1.10
02/18/2021 03/04/2021 03/30/2022 04/13/2022
Closing Price
Birchcliff Energy Ltd. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

06/24/2019 10/01/2019 01/30/2020 03/09/2020 03/11/2020 04/22/2020 06/24/2020 10/15/2020 01/20/2021 02/18/2021 04/14/2021 06/16/2021
14
12
10
8
6
Price (CAD)
4
2
0
OP:$10.00 OP:$11.00 OP:$12.50
09/27/2021 02/02/2022 04/13/2022
Closing Price
Baytex Energy Corp. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

OP:$3.25 OP:$2.50 SP:$1.00 SP:$0.50 SP:$0.75 SP:$0.90 SP:$0.75 SP:$1.00 SP:$1.50 SP:$1.75 SP:$2.00 SP:$3.00
06/24/2019 01/30/2020 03/09/2020 03/18/2020 06/24/2020 07/30/2020 10/15/2020 01/05/2021 02/18/2021 02/24/2021 04/29/2021 06/16/2021
10
6
Price (CAD)
4
0
SP:$4.50 SP:$5.00 SP:$6.50 OP:$8.75 OP:$9.50
09/27/2021 11/05/2021 02/02/2022 04/13/2022 04/28/2022
Closing Price
13
Industry Note
Crew Energy Inc. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

SP:$1.20 SP:$1.00 SP:$0.50 UP:$0.25 UP:$0.20 UP:$0.30 SP:$0.40 SP:$0.50 SP:$0.60 SP:$0.75 SP:$0.90 SP:$1.50
06/24/2019 10/01/2019 01/30/2020 03/09/2020 04/22/2020 06/24/2020 08/06/2020 10/15/2020 12/10/2020 01/05/2021 02/01/2021 02/18/2021
7
6
5
4
3
Price (CAD)
2
1
0
SP:$2.00 SP:$3.50 SP:$4.00 SP:$5.00 SP:$5.75 SP:$6.00
06/16/2021 09/27/2021 11/05/2021 02/02/2022 04/13/2022 05/05/2022
Closing Price
Headwater Exploration Inc. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

I:OP:$3.00 OP:$3.50 OP:$4.00 OP:$4.50 OP:$5.50 OP:$6.25 OP:$7.00 OP:$7.75 OP:$9.00 OP:$10.50
11/30/2020 01/05/2021 01/27/2021 02/18/2021 05/12/2021 06/16/2021 09/27/2021 01/05/2022 02/01/2022 02/02/2022
10
Price (CAD)
4
0
Closing Price
Kiwetinohk Energy Corp. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

I:OP:$18.00 OP:$20.00
05/03/2022 05/18/2022
18
17
16
15
14
Price (CAD)
13
12
11
Closing Price
14
Industry Note
Kelt Exploration Ltd. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

OP:$7.00 OP:$5.50 OP:$6.00 OP:$5.50 OP:$3.50 OP:$2.50 OP:$2.25 SP:$2.00 SP:$2.25 OP:$2.50 OP:$2.25 OP:$2.50
10/01/2019 11/08/2019 01/30/2020 02/20/2020 03/09/2020 03/17/2020 04/22/2020 05/07/2020 06/24/2020 07/23/2020 11/10/2020 01/05/2021
10
Price (CAD)
4
0
OP:$3.25 OP:$4.00 OP:$4.50 OP:$5.00 OP:$7.00 OP:$8.50 OP:$10.00
02/18/2021 03/11/2021 05/25/2021 06/16/2021 09/27/2021 02/02/2022 04/13/2022
Closing Price
NuVista Energy Ltd. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

OP:$6.00 OP:$5.25 OP:$4.00 OP:$3.50 OP:$1.85 SP:$1.00 SP:$1.25 SP:$2.50 OP:$3.00 SP:$3.00 SP:$4.25 SP:$6.75
06/24/2019 10/01/2019 01/30/2020 03/04/2020 03/09/2020 04/22/2020 01/05/2021 02/18/2021 02/25/2021 04/14/2021 06/16/2021 09/27/2021
16
14
12
10
8
Price (CAD)
6
4
2
0
SP:$7.50 SP:$9.00 SP:$11.50 SP:$14.50
11/10/2021 01/05/2022 02/02/2022 04/13/2022
Closing Price
Pipestone Energy Corp. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

OP:$2.75 OP:$2.00 SP:$1.00 SP:$0.75 OP:$0.85 SP:$0.85 SP:$1.50 SP:$2.50 SP:$3.25 SP:$4.00 SP:$4.50 SP:$6.00
06/24/2019 01/30/2020 03/09/2020 04/22/2020 08/05/2020 10/15/2020 02/10/2021 02/18/2021 06/16/2021 09/27/2021 11/10/2021 02/02/2022
7
6
5
4
3
Price (CAD)
2
1
0
SP:$7.00
04/13/2022
Closing Price
15
Industry Note
Paramount Resources Ltd. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

SP:$7.25 SP:$8.50 SP:$8.00 SP:$7.00 SP:$4.75 UP:$2.00 UP:$1.25 UP:$1.50 UP:$1.75 SP:$3.00 SP:$3.75 SP:$7.00
06/24/2019 06/28/2019 11/07/2019 01/30/2020 03/04/2020 03/09/2020 04/22/2020 06/24/2020 08/06/2020 10/15/2020 11/05/2020 01/05/2021
50
40
30
Price (CAD)
20
10
0
SP:$10.50 SP:$13.50 SP:$14.00 SP:$18.00 SP:$19.00 OP:$28.00 SP:$19.00 OP:$28.00 OP:$30.00 OP:$35.00 OP:$45.00
02/08/2021 02/18/2021 05/05/2021 06/16/2021 08/04/2021 09/27/2021 09/27/2021 10/13/2021 01/05/2022 02/02/2022 04/13/2022
Closing Price
Spartan Delta Corp. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

I:OP:$5.00 OP:$6.00 R:NM OP:$6.00 OP:$6.75 OP:$7.25 OP:$8.00 R:NM OP:$8.00 OP:$10.00 OP:$14.50 OP:$18.00
06/05/2020 01/06/2021 02/16/2021 03/08/2021 03/12/2021 05/26/2021 06/16/2021 07/28/2021 08/18/2021 09/27/2021 02/02/2022 04/13/2022
20
15
10
Price (CAD)
5
0
Closing Price
Surge Energy Inc. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

OP:$1.75 OP:$1.50 SP:$0.65 SP:$0.50 SP:$0.40 SP:$0.50 SP:$0.40 SP:$0.50 SP:$0.75 OP:$0.90 SP:$0.90 R:NM
06/24/2019 01/30/2020 03/09/2020 04/14/2020 04/22/2020 06/24/2020 10/15/2020 01/05/2021 02/18/2021 03/05/2021 04/14/2021 04/28/2021
14
12
10
8
6
Price (CAD)
4
2
0
SP:$0.90 SP:$1.00 R:NM SP:$1.00 SP:$8.50 SP:$9.00 SP:$10.00 OP:$14.50
05/13/2021 06/16/2021 06/22/2021 08/18/2021 08/23/2021 10/04/2021 02/02/2022 04/13/2022
Closing Price
16
Industry Note
Tourmaline Oil Corp. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

OP:$25.00 OP:$23.50 OP:$22.00 OP:$21.00 OP:$17.00 OP:$20.00 OP:$22.50 R:NM OP:$30.00 OP:$32.50 OP:$30.00 OP:$37.50
06/24/2019 07/31/2019 11/06/2019 01/30/2020 03/09/2020 04/22/2020 05/06/2020 09/25/2020 10/21/2020 11/05/2020 01/05/2021 02/18/2021
100
80
60
Price (CAD)
40
20
0
OP:$40.00 OP:$45.00 OP:$57.50 OP:$62.50 OP:$75.00
06/11/2021 09/22/2021 09/27/2021 02/02/2022 04/13/2022
Closing Price
Topaz Energy Corp. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

I:OP:$18.00 OP:$17.00 OP:$18.00 R:NM OP:$18.00 OP:$20.00 R:NM OP:$24.00 OP:$25.00 OP:$27.50
11/13/2020 01/05/2021 02/18/2021 05/18/2021 06/08/2021 07/08/2021 10/05/2021 10/26/2021 02/02/2022 04/13/2022
26
24
22
20
18
Price (CAD)
16
14
12
Closing Price
Yangarra Resources Ltd. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

OP:$5.00 OP:$3.75 OP:$2.75 OP:$2.50 OP:$1.75 OP:$1.50 SP:$0.65 SP:$0.50 SP:$0.75 SP:$0.90 SP:$1.00 SP:$1.50
06/24/2019 10/01/2019 10/30/2019 01/30/2020 02/06/2020 03/05/2020 03/09/2020 04/01/2020 06/24/2020 12/11/2020 01/05/2021 02/18/2021
5
Price (CAD)
2
0
SP:$2.00 SP:$2.50 SP:$3.50
06/16/2021 09/27/2021 04/13/2022
Closing Price
RISKS:
ARX
Commodity Price Risk: Fluctuations in global and local commodity prices, in addition to foreign exchange rates, can have material, adverse impacts on operations, financial condition and reserves
value. A decline in commodity prices presents the greatest single direct risk to a company’s revenue, cash flow and earnings.
17
Industry Note
Operational Risk: Oil and natural gas development involves a high degree of risk, which is managed through a combination of experience, knowledge and careful evaluation. There is no assurance
that expenditures made on exploration and development will result in new discoveries or commercial quantities of oil and gas. As well, existing production and processing activities can be impacted
by unforeseeable events that can negatively impact production and cash flow. Additionally, controls and regulations may be imposed and amended from all levels of government, presenting immediate
material impacts to companies in some cases.
Changes to production deliverability: As ARC’s Attachie asset is currently in the early stage of development, adverse changes to well performance, largely in terms of production deliverability and
declines, could have material impacts on the future profitability of this asset.
CNQ
Lack of Integration: Canadian Natural has elevated exposure to commodity price volatility compared with its peers as it currently does not own substantial refining capacity relative to its production,
and additionally, it does not use hedging as an alternative form of downside protection.
Environmental Spill: As the company owns and operates a large number of older legacy assets, the risk is typically higher for an environmental spill. In addition to any associated clean-up costs and
fines, an environmental incident can also damage the company’s reputation and standing to the public.
CVE
Heavy Oil Exposure: Cenovus’s upstream heavy production outpaces downstream refining capacity, resulting in additional exposure to a widening light/heavy differential.
CPG
Changes to production deliverability: As Crescent Point drills many wells to sustain and grow its production volumes, adverse changes to well performance, largely in terms of production deliverability
and declines, can have material negative impacts on the future profitability of the company and its assets.
ERF
Market Access: Market access constraints in North Dakota, which have historically impacted oil prices related to limited pipeline capacity, could have sudden and drastic cash flow impacts on Enerplus’s
core North Dakota Bakken asset.
FRU
18
Industry Note
Market access: Market access constraints in Western Canada, affecting both oil and natural gas production, can have sudden and drastic impacts on local commodity prices and industry activity.
Changes to Industry Activity: As Freehold collects royalties and does not operate the production across most of its asset base, the company’s cash flow is dependent upon industry activity across
its lands. Changes to industry spending can impact the company’s future cash flows.
IMO
Major Asset Performance and Reliability: Imperial’s major assets, including Cold Lake Syncrude and Kearl, have each been affected by operational and reliability challenges historically. Future
operational issues and asset underperformance could be negative for the company’s shareholders.
MEG
High cash flow sensitivity: MEG retains some of the highest sensitivity to commodity prices in our coverage space. While this provides strong torque to the upside, downside is also sensitive to changes
lower in oil prices or Canadian differentials. Given absolute net debt levels remain relatively high, the sensitivity on cash flow and higher costs structure can drive leverage ratios to unsustainable levels
over relatively short periods of weak commodity prices.
OVV
Market Access: Market access constraints in the Permian, which have historically impacted both oil and gas prices related to limited pipeline capacity, can have sudden and drastic cash flow impacts
on Ovintiv’s Permian asset. Ovintiv has historically partially mitigated this risk through hedging and marketing contracts.
PEY
NGTL System Downtime: A significant portion of Peyto’s natural gas volumes flow on TC Energy’s NGTL system, which has historically experienced sudden and prolonged operational downtime due
to planned and unplanned maintenance activity. Sudden changes to operational conditions can have immediate impacts on Peyto’s production volumes.
PSK
Market access: Market access constraints in Western Canada, affecting both oil and natural gas production, can have sudden and drastic impacts on local commodity prices and industry activity.
Changes to Industry Activity: As PrairieSky collects royalties and does not operate the production across its asset base, the company’s cash flow is dependent upon industry activity across its lands.
Changes to industry spending can impact the company’s future cash flows.
19
Industry Note
SU
Syncrude Performance and Reliability: Syncrude, which represents a sizeable portion of Suncor’s portfolio, has been historically affected by operational and reliability challenges. Future operational
issues and asset underperformance could be negative for the company’s shareholders.
VET
value. A decline in commodity prices presents the greatest single direct risk to the company’s revenue, cash flow and earnings.
International Assets: Vermilion operates in several international jurisdictions, which can be subject to changing regulatory, government and environmental policies.
WCP
Market access: As a large Western Canada-focused oil producer, market access constraints, affecting both oil and natural gas production, can have sudden and drastic impacts on Whitecap’s cash flows.
AAV
Commodity Prices: Fluctuations in global and local commodity prices, in addition to foreign exchange rates, can have material, adverse impacts on operations, financial condition and reserves value.
A decline in commodity prices presents the greatest single direct risk to a company’s revenue, cash flow and earnings.
Operational/Regulatory: Oil and natural gas development involves a high degree of risk, which is managed through a combination of experience, knowledge and careful evaluation. There is no assurance
Gathering and Processing Facilities and Pipeline Systems: Lack of capacity and/or constraints on gathering and processing facilities and pipeline systems may have a negative impact on the
Corporation's ability to produce and sell its oil and natural gas.
LOU
Operational Risk: Oil and natural gas development involves a high degree of risk which is managed through a combination of experience, knowledge and careful evaluation. There is no assurance
Market Access: Market access constraints in North Dakota, which have historically impacted oil prices related to limited pipeline capacity, could have sudden and drastic cash flow impacts on the company.
BIR
20
Industry Note
BTE
Non-Operated Assets: The company is not the operator of its drilling locations in the Eagle Ford, and therefore, not able to control the timing of development, associated costs or the rate of production
on the subject properties.
CR
Gathering and Processing Facilities and Pipeline Systems: Lack of capacity and/or constraints on gathering and processing facilities, pipeline systems, and in certain circumstances rail, may have
a negative impact on the Corporation's ability to produce and sell its oil and natural gas.
HWX
Major Shareholder Risk: Additionally, major shareholders that may hold a substantial proportion of the company’s outstanding shares can also present risk to liquidity, cost of capital and capitalization
of the company. In HWX's case, CVE is a 26% (31% fully diluted) shareholder, and while its interests are aligned, could present an overhang to the stock through its own strategic interests (orientation
of the company or need to crystalize its interests).
Clearwater Risks: While the project holds substantially positive attributes, as with all elements of the exploration and production business, this play holds inherent risk, which we primarily highlight through
WCS differentials, sulphur content, infrastructure support, solution gas drive, land access and structure & geology (in-depth understanding of the aforementioned can be found within our initiation report).
Operational Risk: Oil and natural gas exploration involves a high degree of risk, which is managed through a combination of experience, knowledge and careful evaluation. There is no assurance that
expenditures made on exploration will result in new discoveries or commercial quantities of oil and gas. As well, existing production and processing activities can be impacted by unforeseeable events
that can negatively impact production and cash flow levels. HWX has a meaningful orientation towards exploration investment, which in addition to ongoing validation of EOR response, will comprise
the key sources of risk to our outlook.
KEC
Commodity Price Risk: Oil and gas prices are determined by global supply, demand and other factors. Fluctuations in these prices could have a material, adverse impact on the operations, financial
condition, proven and/or probable reserves and future development of undeveloped land. Declines in prices have a direct impact on revenue, cash flow and earnings.
Operational Risk: Oil and natural gas exploration involves a high degree of risk, which is managed through a combination of experience, knowledge and careful evaluation. There is no assurance that
expenditures made on exploration will result in discoveries or commercial quantities of oil and gas. As well, existing production and processing activities can be impacted by unforeseeable events that
can negatively impact production and cash flow levels.
Liquidity Risk: As a function of the closely-held nature of the company’s equity, the stock has a limited public float and liquidity to date has been minimal, which in future may continue to challenge the
stock’s ability to fully realize its upside (e.g., index inclusion will be difficult to achieve due to float).
Time Horizon Risk: Given the long-dated investment cycle of its green portfolio relative to that of its upstream portfolio, there could be a drag on its valuation until that portion of its capital is viewed
as investible), which may impact the required cost of capital to pursue its strategy at the prescribed pace.
KEL
21
Industry Note
NVA
PIPE
POU
SDE
SGY
22
Industry Note
TOU
TPZ
Execution of the Strategy: The value of its assets and strategy will be predicated on its ability to execute continued growth, principally targeting diversification (jurisdiction, counterparty, commodity)
and quality (counterparty and take-or-pay). Deal flow may not be readily accessible in a timely fashion and could cause a drag on sentiment and value.
Concentration Risk: As it sits, TOU is the major underlying counterparty and will predicate the majority of its embedded growth strategy, but could in specific situations prove an impediment to its outlook
(as growth, optionality and transactions will largely be dictated by TOU; i.e., take-or-pays and activity distribution).
Tourmaline Share Overhang: Given the significance of TOU’s holdings and the competing opportunities to expand its interest (future dropdowns) relative to its ultimate goal to reduce its interest, there
could be material blocks of stock available at various intervals of time, which may or may not be affiliated with an accretive transaction, subject to the needs of the parent company, and could present
overhang to the stock and risk to its cost of capital.
TVE
Surface Conditions: Oil and gas industry operations are affected by road bans imposed from time to time during the winter break-up and thaw period in the spring. Road bans are also imposed due to
snow, mud and rock slides and periods of high water or wildfires which can restrict access to well sites and production facilities.
YGR
Changes to production deliverability: Adverse changes to well performance, largely in terms of production deliverability and declines, can have material negative impacts on the future profitability
of a company and its assets.
ADDITIONAL COMPANY RELATED DISCLOSURES

ARC Resources Ltd. 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9
Canadian Natural Resources Limited 2, 3, 5, 7
Cenovus Energy Inc. 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 10
Crescent Point Energy Corp. 2, 3, 5, 6, 7
Enerplus Corporation 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9
Freehold Royalties Ltd. 2, 3, 4, 5, 7
Imperial Oil Limited
MEG Energy Corp.
23
Industry Note
Ovintiv Inc. 10
Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. 2, 3, 5, 7
PrairieSky Royalty Ltd. 2, 3, 4, 5, 7
Suncor Energy Inc.
Vermilion Energy Inc. 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10
Whitecap Resources Inc. 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9
Advantage Energy Ltd. 2, 3, 5, 7, 10
Baytex Energy Corp. 2, 3, 5, 6, 7
Birchcliff Energy Ltd. 2, 3, 5, 7, 10
Crew Energy Inc. 2, 3, 5, 7
Headwater Exploration Inc.
Kelt Exploration Ltd. 2, 3, 5, 7
Kiwetinohk Energy Corp.
Lucero Energy Corp. 2, 4, 6, 7
NuVista Energy Ltd.
Paramount Resources Ltd. 2, 3, 5, 7
Pipestone Energy Corp. 2, 3, 5, 7, 10
Spartan Delta Corp. 2, 3, 4, 5, 7
Surge Energy Inc. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
Topaz Energy Corp. 2, 3, 4, 5, 7
Tourmaline Oil Corp. 2, 3, 4, 5, 7
Yangarra Resources Ltd. 2, 3, 5, 7
LEGEND FOR COMPANY RELATED DISCLOSURES:
2 National Bank Financial Inc. has acted as an underwriter with respect to this issuer within the past 12 months.
3 National Bank Financial Inc. has provided investment banking services for this issuer within the past 12 months.
4 National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities with respect to this issuer within the past 12 months.
5 National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from this issuer within the past 12 months.
6 National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate has a non-investment banking services related relationship during the past 12 months.
7 The issuer is a client, or was a client, of National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate within the past 12 months.
8 National Bank Financial Inc. or its affiliates expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this issuer in the next 3 months.
9 As of the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report (or the end of the second most recent month if the publication date is less than 10 calendar days after
the end of the most recent month), National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of this issuer.
10 National Bank Financial Inc. makes a market in the securities of this issuer, at the time of this report publication.
11 A partner, director, officer or research analyst involved in the preparation of this report has, during the preceding 12 months provided services to this issuer for remuneration other than normal
course investment advisory or trade execution services.
12 A research analyst, associate or any other person (or a member of their household) directly involved in preparing this report has a financial interest in the securities of this issuer.
13 A partner, director, officer, employee or agent of National Bank Financial Inc., is an officer, director, employee of, or serves in any advisory capacity to the issuer.
14 A member of the Board of Directors of National Bank Financial Inc. is also a member of the Board of Directors or is an officer of this issuer.
15 A redacted draft version of this report has been shown to the issuer for fact checking purposes and changes may have been made to the report before publication.
RATING DISTRIBUTION
Outperform Sector Perform Underperform
Coverage Universe Ratings Distribution 65% 32% 0%
Investment Banking Distribution 70% 63% 50%
DISCLOSURES
Ratings And What They Mean: PRIMARY STOCK RATING: NBF has a three-tiered rating system that is relative to the coverage universe of the particular analyst. Here is a brief description of each:
Outperform (OP) – The stock is expected to outperform the analyst’s coverage universe over the next 12 months; Sector Perform (SP) – The stock is projected to perform in line with the sector over
the next 12 months; Underperform (UP) – The stock is expected to underperform the sector over the next 12 months. SECONDARY STOCK RATING: Under Review (UR) − Our analyst has withdrawn
the rating because of insufficient information and is awaiting more information and/or clarification; Tender (T) − Our analyst is recommending that investors tender to a specific offering for the company’s
stock; Restricted (R) − Because of ongoing investment banking transactions or because of other circumstances, NBF policy and/or laws or regulations preclude our analyst from rating a company’s stock.
INDUSTRY RATING: NBF has an Industry Weighting system that reflects the view of our Economics & Strategy Group, using its sector rotation strategy. The three-tiered system rates industries as
Overweight, Market Weight and Underweight, depending on the sector’s projected performance against broader market averages over the next 12 months. RISK RATING: As of June 30, 2020, National
Bank Financial discontinued its Below Average, Average and Above Average risk ratings. We continue to use the Speculative risk rating which reflects higher financial and/or operational risk.
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24
Industry Note
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Industry Note
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Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels: NBCFM Research

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NBCFM Research | Industry Note

June 15, 2022

INDUSTRY RATING Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels

Commodity Forecast Changes

Exhibit 1: NBF Commodity Price Revisions

2022 2023 2024+

Analyst Dan Payne, CFA Currency - -

Associate Logan Fisher Source: NBF, Bloomberg

Exhibit 2: NBF vs. Strip Price Deck

NYMEX (US$/mcf); AECO (C$/mcf)

NBF Price Deck Strip Pricing as of June 15, 2022

Source: NBF, Bloomberg

Target Price Revisions

Appendix 1: Revised Targets & Estimates

Appendix 2: Comparables (1/2)

Appendix 2: Comparables (2/2)

Appendix 3: EIA Crude Oil & Natural Gas Forecasts

ARC Resources Ltd. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

Canadian Natural Resources Limited Rating History as of 06/15/2022

Cenovus Energy Inc. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

Crescent Point Energy Corp. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

Enerplus Corporation Rating History as of 06/15/2022

Freehold Royalties Ltd. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

Imperial Oil Limited Rating History as of 06/15/2022

MEG Energy Corp. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

Ovintiv Inc. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

PrairieSky Royalty Ltd. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

Suncor Energy Inc. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

Vermilion Energy Inc. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

Whitecap Resources Inc. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

Advantage Energy Ltd. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

Lucero Energy Corp. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

Birchcliff Energy Ltd. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

Baytex Energy Corp. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

Crew Energy Inc. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

Headwater Exploration Inc. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

Kiwetinohk Energy Corp. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

Kelt Exploration Ltd. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

NuVista Energy Ltd. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

Pipestone Energy Corp. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

Paramount Resources Ltd. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

Spartan Delta Corp. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

Surge Energy Inc. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

Tourmaline Oil Corp. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

Topaz Energy Corp. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

Yangarra Resources Ltd. Rating History as of 06/15/2022

ADDITIONAL COMPANY RELATED DISCLOSURES

LEGEND FOR COMPANY RELATED DISCLOSURES:

Outperform Sector Perform Underperform

Coverage Universe Ratings Distribution 65% 32% 0%

Investment Banking Distribution 70% 63% 50%

NBF is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

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