Pemodelan Sistem: Model Konseptual

Disampaikan Oleh M. Imron Mustajib, S.T., M.T

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Referensi
1. 2. 3. 4. Daellenbach, H. G., (1994), Systems and Decision Making, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester-England. Murthy, D.N.P., Page, M.W., and Rodin,E.Y., Mathematical Modelling, Pergamon Press, 1990 Simatupang, T.M., (1995), Pemodelan Sistem, Nindita: Klaten Tunas, B. (2007), Memahami dan Memecahkan Masalah dengan Pendekatan Sistem, PT Nimas Multima.

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OUTLINE
A Situation Summary Approaches for Describing A Relevant System System Models Influence Diagrams Quantitative Modelling

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Systems Modeling
We will apply the systems concepts and thinking discussed before to a real-life problematic situation Define a relevant system for it. Several cases problematic situations discussed System modelling: The process of conceptualizing a system of interest. This involves two steps: Describing a problem situation and a relevant system
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A Situation Summary
The first step when approaching a problem situation is to familiarize yourself with: the situation Its processes and structures The people involved Their aims and desires Relationship between them The hierarchy or power structure The resources available The data sources and information
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A Problem Situation
To get a feel for anything you discovered and seems relevant for describing the problem situation. Rich Picture Diagram is a useful tool for describing a problem situation

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Rich Picture Diagram

A cartoon-like summary of everything the observer knows about the situation studied Diagram or concept -is not a system description Only one approach of making a situation summary

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Rich Picture: A Piece of Sky is Missing

Problematic Situation The person looking at the situation The structural elements The process elements The relationships between structure and process

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The Socio-Technical Model [Leavitt (1964)].

Structure

Task

Technology (tools) People (actors)

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Rich Picture Diagram

Guidelines: Elements of structure (All components of the situation are relatively stable -e.g., all physical aspects) Elements of process (All aspects that undergo change -e.g., activities, flow and processing of materials) Relationship between structure and process and between process (how does the structure affect condition of process; one process affects other processes)

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Rich Picture Diagram

For human activity systems: A rich picture should be included hard facts and soft facts. The rich picture is never finished Common mistake: Each item pictured needs to be connected one or more other items (Note that rich picture is not a system description) The uses of rich picture: An ideal vehicle for communicating with other people about complex and problematic situation
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Approaches for describing a relevant system

A system description consists in specifying the transformation process(es) of the system the boundary of the system the components and subsystems and the structure the inputs and the outputs (desired & undesired outputs) Two Approaches for describing a relevant system: Structural Approach Process Approach

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Structural Approach
A typical structure usually found for situation considered, e.g., a waiting line structure. The situation is well understood Using a known basic structure allows fast progress toward a complete system description

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Process Approach
No assumption about the possible system structure The observed processes and relationships are used to discover a good structure A good starting point is to determine from whose standpoint to view the system and then define the prime transformation process. Rules help in identifying the components, inputs and outputs of the system.
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Rules
Any aspect that affects the systems, but in turn is not significantly affected by it, is an input from the environment system. This covers all external controls. Any aspect that is directly or indirectly affected or controlled by the system, but turn does not affected any other aspect of the system, is a system output.

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 Any entity that is either part of the systems structure or its transformation process(es) is a component of the system, unless it is an output of the system. Similarly, if the system or any of its components affects an entity or exercises control over it, then that entity is a component, unless it is a system output. Any aspect that does not affect the system, or is not affected by it, or not part of its structure or transformation process is irrelevant, and can be ignored

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System Models
The activity of building a model is referred to as systems modeling. A model may be iconic, symbolic, or analogous Symbolic Models:
Representation of the relationships between various entities or concept by means of symbols.
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Mathematical Models
Relationships between various entities are expressed in the form of mathematical expressions:
Function, Equation, and Inequalities

Example: Case Study C [Murthy, et.al. (1990)] Optimal Production

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Case 1: The Ozone Hole

A system for how the ozone layer in the stratosphere is gradually destroyed through the continued release of CFSs into the atmosphere, allowing a greater fraction of the suns uv-rays to reach the earths surface. Input: Process: Component Structure: Output:

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Case 2: Lubricating Oil Division (LOD)

A situation summary Identifying the problem A system relevant Influence diagram

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The Narrow System:[LOD]

A system for the replenishment and stock control of packaged finished goods which keeps the total operating costs for the LOD as low as possible while maintaining the current level of customer service

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Relevant System:[LOD]
To use the typical inventory/production control structure for defining the system But the problem situation includes aspects not normally found in such a structure e.g. rules to meet big and small customer orders Use the Process Approach

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Relevant System:[LOD]
Big customer order is met by scheduling a special production run (is it outside the narrow system ?) This aspect affects the inventory/production control system of LOD Cutoff point is considered as one of the two decision variables. What type of control open loop control (the customer order classification input to the system)

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Identifying the system aspects

See Table 5-1. The easiest way is to start out by listing
The control inputs The performance outputs Any other system outputs, Then followed by structure, process, component of the system

Two potential inputs breakdown in the operation of the refinery and production capacities, are ignored (why?)
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Influence Diagrams (ID)

Insightful for bringing out the transformation process of the system in term of the structural and causal relationships between systems components. Depicts the influence relationship Between the inputs into a system and its component (the system variables) Between the component of the system, and Between the component and the outputs of the system, including performance measures (these influence relationship can usually be measured in quantitative terms)
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Approach To Draw An ID
Control and other inputs State variables System outputs (in a logical sequence) For example, the customer order pattern (an input) & cutoff point (a decision) determine order patterns (met from stock or special production run) Each customer order pattern determines the annual volume by spec-prod-run (AVPR) or annual volume met from stock (AVS).

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Approach To Draw An ID
AVPR the annual number of setups Together with the cost of production setup the annual setup cost for special production run, and so forth.

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Figure 5-1: OR/MS methodology F O R M U L A T I O N Summarizing problem situation Identifying problem for analysis Decribing relevant system Building a mathematical 1 model M O D E L I N G Finding preferred solution Validation & performance testing Analyzing sensitivity of solution I M P L E M E N T A T O N 1 FORWARD LINKAGES

3 PROJECT PROPOSAL 4

7 PROJECT REPORT 8

Planning Implementatio n Establishing control over solution

Implementing solution Following up solution use BACKWARD LINKAGES

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DOCUMENTATION & USER'S MANUAL 11 SOLUTION AUDIT

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