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Probability and Random Processes (15B11MA301)

This document provides an overview of mean time to failure (MTTF) and conditional reliability in probability and random processes. It defines MTTF as the expected value of the time to failure of a system or component. Conditional reliability describes the reliability of a system after a wear-in period like burn-in. The document includes examples calculating MTTF, reliability, and design life for various systems with different failure rate functions. It concludes with references for further reading on probability, statistics, and stochastic processes.

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Aditya gaur
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78 views15 pages

Probability and Random Processes (15B11MA301)

This document provides an overview of mean time to failure (MTTF) and conditional reliability in probability and random processes. It defines MTTF as the expected value of the time to failure of a system or component. Conditional reliability describes the reliability of a system after a wear-in period like burn-in. The document includes examples calculating MTTF, reliability, and design life for various systems with different failure rate functions. It concludes with references for further reading on probability, statistics, and stochastic processes.

Uploaded by

Aditya gaur
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Probability and Random Processes

(15B11MA301)

Lecture-23
(Content Covered: MTTF, Conditional Reliability)

Department of Mathematics
Jaypee Institute of Information Technology, Noida
1
Contents
• Mean Time to failure (MTTF)
• Conditional Reliability
• Solved Examples
• Practice Questions
• References

2
Mean time to failure (MTTF)
• The expected value of the time the failure T, denoted by 𝐸(𝑇) and variance of 𝑇,
denoted by 𝜎𝑇2 are two important parameters frequently used to characterize
reliability.
• 𝐸(𝑇) is called 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑦 𝑀𝑇𝑇𝐹.
∞
𝑀𝑇𝑇𝐹 = 𝐸 𝑇 = න 𝑡𝑓 𝑡 𝑑𝑡
0
∞
= − න 𝑡𝑅′ 𝑡 𝑑𝑡
0

∞ ∞
= − 𝑡𝑅 𝑡 0 + ‫׬‬0 𝑅 𝑡 𝑑𝑡 (1)
On integrating by parts

Using (1) and above results ,we have MTTF and variance as:
Conditional Reliability
• Conditional reliability is used to describe the reliability of a component or system
following a wear-in period (burn-in period) or after a warranty period.

• It is defined as
Design Life
• Design life is the time to failure that corresponds to a specified reliability.

• It is usually denoted by 𝑡𝐷 .
Example 1: The density function of the time to failure in years of the gizmos (for use on
widgets) manufactured by a certain company is given by

200
𝑓 𝑡 = ,t ≥ 0
(𝑡+10)3

(a) Derive the reliability function and determine the reliability for the first year of operation.

(b) Compute the MTTF.

(c) What is the design life for a reliability 0.95?

(d) Will a one-year burn-in period improve the reliability in part (a)? If so, what is the new
reliability?
Solution:
Example 2: The time to failure in operating hours of a critical solid-state power unit
has the hazard rate function

(a)Determine the design life if a reliability of 0.90 is desired.


(b)Compute the MTTF.
(c)Given that the unit has operated for 50 hours, what is the probability that it will
survive a second 50 hours of operation?
Solution: (a)
(b)
(c)
Practice Question
1
Question: A logic circuit is known to have a decreasing failure rate of the form  (t ) =
2 t
per year , where t is in years.

(a) If the design life is one year, what is the reliability?

(b) If the component undergoes wear in for one month before being put into operation,
what will the reliability be for a one-year design life?

Ans: a) 0.905 b) 0.928


References
1. Veerarajan, T., Probability, Statistics and Random Processes, 3rd Ed. Tata McGraw-
Hill, 2008.
2. Ghahramani, S., Fundamentals of Probability with Stochastic Processes, Pearson,
2005.
3. Papoulis, A. and Pillai, S.U., Probability, Random Variables and Stochastic
Processes, Tata McGraw-Hill, 2002.
4. Miller, S., Childers, D., Probability and Random Processes, Academic Press, 2012.

15

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