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Probability and Random Processes (15B11MA301 (15B11MA301 Probability and Random Processes 15B11MA301) 15B11MA301)

Here are the steps to solve this problem: (a) Given: λ(t) = 0.01 R(t) = e-λt Required: R(50) R(50) = e-0.01×50 = e-0.5 = 0.6065 (b) Given: R(t) = 0.90 R(t) = e-λt 0.90 = e-λt -λt = ln(0.10) t = -ln(0.10)/λ = 69.3 hours Therefore, the design life for a reliability of 0.90 is 69 hours.

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386 views16 pages

Probability and Random Processes (15B11MA301 (15B11MA301 Probability and Random Processes 15B11MA301) 15B11MA301)

Here are the steps to solve this problem: (a) Given: λ(t) = 0.01 R(t) = e-λt Required: R(50) R(50) = e-0.01×50 = e-0.5 = 0.6065 (b) Given: R(t) = 0.90 R(t) = e-λt 0.90 = e-λt -λt = ln(0.10) t = -ln(0.10)/λ = 69.3 hours Therefore, the design life for a reliability of 0.90 is 69 hours.

Uploaded by

Aditya gaur
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Probability and Random Processes

(15B11MA301
15B11MA301)
Lecture 22
Department of Mathematics
Jaypee Institute of Information Technology
Noida

1
References

1. A. M. Mood, F. A. Graybill and D.. C. Boes, Introduction to the theory of


statistics, 3rd Indian Ed., Mc Graw Hill, 1973.
2. R. V. Hogg and A. T. Craig, Introduction to mathematical Statistics, Mc-
Millan, 1995.
3. V. K. Rohatgi, An Introduction to Probability Theory and Mathematical
Statistics, Wiley Eastern, 1984.
4. S. M.Ross, A First Course in Probability, 6th edition, Pearson Education Asia,
2002.
5 S. Palaniammal, Probability and Random Processes, PHI Learning Private
Limited, 2012.
6 P. L.Mayer, Introductory Probability and Statistical Applications, Addison-
Wesley, Second Edition, 1972.
7. R. E. Walpole, R H. Myers, S. L. Myers, and K. Ye, Probability & Statistics
for Engineers & Scientists,
cientists, 9th edition, Pearson Education Limited, 2016.
8. I. Miller and M. Miller, John E. Freund's Mathematical Statistics with
Applications, 8th Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2014.
2
Reliability: Definition
• Reliability may be defined as the probability that a component (or a
system) will perform properly for a specified period of time ‘t’ under a
given set of operating conditions.
Or
• Reliability is the probability that the component does not fail during
the interval (0, t).
Reliability measures
• Here, we only consider an item that is not repaired. The item may be repairable, but we onl
consider it until the first failure.
• Before introducing the reliability measures, we have to define the two concepts:
• Item: We use the term item to denote any physical component, assembly, or system.
• In some applications, the item may be a small component, while it in other applications
may be a large system.
• The time to failure: It can be measured by different time concepts
• Calendar time
• Operational time
• Number of kilometers driven by a car
• Number of cycles for a periodically working item
• Number of times a switch is operated
• Number of rotations of a bearing
In most applications, we assume that the time to failure ‘T’ is a continuous random variable
(Discrete variables may be approximated by a continuous variable)
Mathematical definition of Reliability
Using the relations (1) and (2),

R '(t )
 (t )   (3)
R(t )
tegrating both sides of equation number (3) with respect to t between 0 and t, we have
t
log R(t )  log R(0)     (t ) dt (4)
0
t


  ( t ) dt
 R (t )  e 0
, R(0)  1 (5)
Using (2) and (5),
t


  ( t ) dt
f (t )   (t )e 0
.
mple: Prove that life time follows exponential distribution, if hazard rate function is a constant.

R '(t )
 (A1)
R(t )
tegrating both sides of equation number (3) with respect to t between 0 and t, we have

log R(t )  log R(0)  t (A2)


 R(t )  e  t , R(0)  1 (A3)
Using (2) and (A3),

f (t )   e  t .
nce, life time follows exponential distribution, if hazard rate function is a constant.
(b)
Solution:

(b)
Example 2: The time to failure in operating hours of a critical solid-state
solid power
unit has the hazard rate function

(a)What is the reliability if the power unit must operate continuously for 50
hours?
(b)Determine the design life if a reliability of 0.90 is desired.
olution:

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