Russia BAML March 2022
Russia BAML March 2022
Russia BAML March 2022
US Credit Research
Russia/Ukraine HY Exposure
Industry Overview
In this report, our US High Yield team evaluated each of our sectors and subsectors for Credit
themes and drivers related to the Russia/Ukraine war. We highlight sectors and United States
companies that are directly impacted with manufacturing facilities in the area or Cross-Industry
significant revenue exposure in the territory. Additionally, we attempt to review the Larry Bland
scores of companies that are indirectly affected due to supply chain disruptions or price Research Analyst
BofAS
changes of broad based commodities such as oil, natural gas, or wheat, as well as more +1 646 855 6502
exotic inputs like titanium or neon gas. [email protected]
US High Yield Research
Sector Exposure Breakdown
High Exposure: Energy, Metals & Mining, Aerospace & Defense, Transportation, Aircraft
Lessors, Power Producers
Modest Exposure: Industrials, Chemicals, Paper and Packaging, Autos, Homebuilding &
Building Products, Cruise Lines, Rentals, Services, Retail & Consumer, Food & Beverage
BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research
reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of
interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this
report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Refer to important disclosures on page 11 to 12. 12391099
• Spirit AeroSystems (SPR) and Triumph (TGI) have high exposure to commercial
aerospace which could be impacted by the conflict. Additionally, there potentially
could be supply chain impacts with the sourcing/pricing of aluminum and titanium
which are used in aircraft manufacturing.
• Ford (F) has limited exposure to Russia. Ford only produces 0.6% of its global
production in Russia. However, chip shortages remain a concern.
• Goodyear Tire (GT) production inputs are highly levered to natural and synthetic
rubber which is exposed to higher oil prices.
• Adient (ADNT) has significant European exposure with about 41% of revenues
coming from EMEA. Aluminum is also an input for Adient’s products and higher
aluminum prices could have an impact.
• Cooper Standard (CPS) earns about 24% of its automotive revenues in Europe.
The company is also impacted by higher oil prices.
• Playtika (PLTK): Some operations in Ukraine, Belarus. On 3/1/22 earnings call said
have implemented business continuity plan, “has not affected business ops to this
point”. Recall on 2/24/22 PLTK announced a strategic review including a sale.
Revenue 70% US, 15% EMEA, 8% APAC, 7% Other.
• Solenis (SOLEIN): One Russian plant, 2% of sales and 3% of EBITDA; Ukraine sales
0.1% of sales
• SNF Floerger (SNFF): One plant under construction in Russia; Russia is 1% of sales;
Ukraine – no sales
• Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC): Approximately 26% of FY22 revenue comes from UK/Europe.
In the UK, both chickens and pigs are fed meal that is high in wheat. As a result,
input costs are likely to increase.
• Post Holdings (POST): Post will primarily be impacted in its Weetabix and
Consumer Brands segments. Weetabix produces branded and private label cereal
products largely in the UK and Weetabix comprised 10% of FY21 sales. In addition,
the Consumer Brands segment is primarily ready-to-eat cereal sold in the US and it
comprised 38% of FY21 revenue. We estimate that grains represent approximately
20% of COGS for Post.
Resin: Resin is a derivative of oil and is an input in many consumer products. Therefore,
as global oil prices rise, resin costs are likely to increase as well.
• Edgewell (EPC): We estimate that raw materials comprise just over 50% of
Edgewell’s COGS. Resin represents approximately 20% of the company’s raw
materials.
• Mattel (MAT): We estimate that raw materials comprise 50% of COGS for Mattel.
Resin is the largest component of the company’s raw materials.
• Newell (NWL): We estimate that raw materials comprise 50% of COGS for Newell.
Resin is the largest component of the company’s raw materials and represents a
high-single digit percentage of COGS.
Foam: Foam represents one of the two largest input costs to bedding products with
steel being the other largest component.
• Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG): We estimate that raw materials comprise almost 60%
of Scott’s COGS. Urea is the largest single component of the company’s COGS and
represents greater than 10% of COGS.
• Central Garden & Pet (CENT): Central Garden provides little segment data with
specific category sales. However, the company notes that key inputs in fertilizer and
control products include: (1) urea; (2) potash; and (3) phosphates.
• Spectrum Brands (SPB): Urea is a key input in the company’s lawn and garden
segment.
• Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure (FTAI): FTAI has eight planes (6% of
total portfolio) leased to Russian operators.
• Apache Corp (APA) is one of the largest oil weighed issuer in the high yield index,
while Laredo Petroleum (LPI) and Surge Energy (MSSCRK) are the highest
yielding companies that are oil weighted issuers
• Cheniere Energy (LNG) is one of the largest companies that exports natural gas
from the US to global markets
• Royal Caribbean (RCL) Prior to Covid, 2020 fuel consumption was expected to be
1.5 million metric tons. 54% of anticipated 2022 fuel consumption is hedged at
$490 per metric ton. We estimate a 10% change in fuel prices would impact
consensus ’23 EBITDA by a low-single digit percentage.
• Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH) The company expects fuel consumption in 2022
to be 900,000 metric tons, with 42% of that consumption hedged. NCLH expects a
fuel price per metric ton of $675 net of hedges in 2022. NCLH estimates a 10%
change in the price of fuel would impact profit by ~$27 million, which equates to a
low-single digit percentage of consensus ’23 EBITDA.
• Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) The company expects fuel consumption in 2022 to be
2.9 million metric tons and on 12/20/21 Carnival noted a blended spot fuel price of
$563 per metric ton. Carnival does not hedge its fuel costs.
• Bausch Health Companies Inc. (BHC): Russia and Ukraine represent less than 2%
of Bausch’s sales. Thrombo ASS, a leading brand in Russia, represents less than 1%
of sales. 3% of Bausch’s workforce is located in Russia.
• Organon & Co. (OGN): Russia, Latin America, Middle East and Africa represent
13% of the company’s sales. Organon planned to launch NASONEX OTC in Russia
during 1H22.
• Perrigo Company plc (PRGO): Perrigo does not operate in either Russia or Ukraine,
with no sales and manufacturing in the region.
• Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ): Jazz does not break out operating performance
for either Russia or Ukraine.
• James Hardie (JHXAU) Exposed to natural gas and energy in production and
distribution and through commodity input costs. The company estimates that a 10%
change in the cost of its key commodity inputs (pulp, cement and silica) would
impact EBITDA by a $33 million or a low-single digit percentage of consensus ’23
EBITDA.
• H&E Equipment (HEES) Has the potential to benefit from sustained higher oil
prices. The company derives 4% of its revenue from upstream, downstream and
midstream energy companies.
• Herc Rentals (HRI) Has the potential to benefit from sustained higher oil prices.
The company derives 9% of its revenue from upstream, downstream and midstream
energy companies.
• United Rentals (URI) Has the potential to benefit from sustained higher oil prices.
The company derives 9% of its revenue from upstream, downstream and midstream
energy companies.
• Titan International (TWI): 5% of total 2021 sales (6% in 2020) generated in Russia
as the company has a manufacturing plant in the country.
• GFL Environmental (GFLCN), Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD), Harsco
(HSC), Stericycle (SRCL): Environmental service companies and other route-based
service providers potentially hurt by higher fuel costs.
• Manitowoc (MTW), Mueller Water (MWA), RBC Bearings (ROLL), Terex (TEX),
Vertiv Holdings (VRT), Zurn Water Solutions (ZWS): steel, aluminum and other
metals represent significant raw materials.
• Alcoa (AA), Century Aluminum (CENX): Upstream aluminum benefits due to rising
power prices and the absence of Russian aluminum exports. Russia represents 6%
of global Aluminum supply.
• Coeur Mining (CDE), Eldorado Gold (ELDCN), IAMGOLD (IMGCN), Hecla Mining
(HL), New Gold (NGDCN): Gold benefits due to investor fears, inflation hedging and
central banks buying to insulate from dollar exposure.
• Big River Steel (BIGBRS), Cleveland Cliffs (CLF), Commercial Metals (CMC),
Ryerson (RYI), US Steel (X): Steel benefits due to Russian and Ukrainian supply
disruptions. Russian and Ukraine together account for roughly 10% of global steel
exports.
• Canpack (CANPCK): In 2020, mgmt. announced its was increasing its Russian
beverage can capacity by 34% to 2.55 bn cans/year, represented nearly 10% of its
27 bn global bevcan capacity, with its manufacturing facilities in Volokolamsk, and
Novocherkassk, Russia. CANPACK also has a beverage can manufacturing facility in
Vyshhorod, Ukraine, and a metal closures facility in Yavoriv, Ukraine.
• Ball (BLL): Three plants in Russia (4% of 5 bevcan plants) – likely <5% of sales
• Sealed Air (SEE): Facilities in Russia (2% of sales) and Ukraine (1% of sales)
• Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH): In fiscal 2021, BAH generated approximately 49.6%
and 20.0% of revenue from defense clients and intelligence clients, respectively.
Revenue generated from defense clients also includes foreign military sales to non-
U.S. government clients.
• KBR, Inc. (KBR): In 2021, KBR generated 70% of revenues from the U.S.
government and 7% of revenues from the U.K. government.
• Sabre Corp (SABHLD): In 2021, 20% of revenues were derived from Europe, and
16% of Direct Billable Bookings in the Travel Solutions business were generated in
EMEA. On March 3rd, Sabre terminated its distribution agreement with Aeroflot, the
largest government-majority owned carrier in Russia.
• Sensata (ST): 26% of 2021 revenue in Europe, use a broad range of raw materials,
incl. resin and metals, enter into commodity forward contracts in order to limit
exposure to price variability
• Calpine Corp (CPN) generates ~90 TWh of electricity annually, mainly from natural
gas-fired generation.
• NRG Energy (NRG) generates ~40 TWh of electricity annually, mainly from coal-
fired, natural gas-fired, and nuclear generation. Nuclear accounts for ~25% of
generation; uranium prices/supply could potentially be impacted by the conflict.
• Vistra Energy (VST) generates ~170 TWh of electricity annually, mainly from coal-
fired and natural gas-fired generation. Nuclear accounts for ~10% of generation;
uranium prices/supply could potentially be impacted by the conflict.
• Talen Energy (TLN) generates ~35-40 TWh of electricity annually, mainly from
nuclear and coal-fired generation. Nuclear accounts for ~50% of generation;
uranium prices/supply could potentially be impacted by the conflict.
Gregg Brody
Research Analyst
BofAS
+1 646 855 6410
[email protected]
Ana Goshko
Research Analyst
BofAS
+1 646 855 9936
[email protected]
Douglas Karson
Research Analyst
BofAS
+1 646 855 7405
[email protected]
William M. Reuter
Research Analyst
BofAS
+1 646 855 6363
[email protected]
Roger Spitz
Research Analyst
BofAS
+1 646 855 6946
[email protected]