Predictive Analysis of the Enrollment of Schools Using

Regression Algorithms

I. Introduction

 Decision Tree
Learning Modality (LM) was used in public and private schools in the Philippines during the
Covid19 outbreak . For their clients, the Department of Education (DepEd) has established
Learning Delivery Modalities (LDM). The synchronous and asynchronous modes of learning are
also provided to parents and students as part of this[1]. Learners and teachers have been able to
gain knowledge in a modular format thanks to the LDM deployment. The majority of the
learning resources are gathered using Cloud Computing (CC), which is a model of information
management[2]. The learning materials are still assessed to see if the modules effectively
measure students' grasp of a subject. Furthermore, the success of learners at all grade levels and
across domains must be evaluated.
The LDM created a solution to continue the learners' educations in the presence of the COVID-
19. The delivery of modules to the learners that must be completed each week was implemented
by the elementary, junior high, and senior high school students. Other schools have also prepared
for synchronous and asynchronous learning models, depending on the type of system chosen at
the time of enrollment. The program's execution has two big challenges: no computer or
smartphone, and some people are having trouble connecting to the internet. For the
implementation of learning modules; an excessive or insufficient number of printed learning
modules, broken modules as a result of wear and tear, and so on.
The process of distributing learning resources and the resources required by the various schools
in DepEd Region 4A[3], which consists of 21 Divisions, will be evaluated using a model. The
study will focus on prediction for the elementary, junior, and senior high school education
departments, with coverage ranging from Kindergarten to Grade 12 , from the 2016-2017
academic year to the 2019-2020 academic year. To assess each institution's performance and
success rate with cloud-based learning materials[4], a Decision Tree prediction was applied.
Furthermore, determining the acceptability of cloud-based learning by studying the trend of
various data acquired from various sources.
Different prediction models, such as Naïve Bayes , Gradient Boosted Tree, Random Forest, and
others[5], have been utilized in various research; however, these models may not be helpful in
predicting primary school enrolment in Region 4A. It will be more difficult to estimate the
enrollment pattern of this dilemma due to various trends and pandemics[6]. By defining the
various parameters and the best-fit predictive algorithm, the research will be more accurate.
One of the leading predictive algorithms is Decision Tree[7]; This method has been utilized in a
variety of applications, including medical, statistical, and environmental forecasting, as well as
enrollment analysis[8][9]. The Decision Tree approach has also been shown to suit
multidimensional datasets[10]. Using this method in this scenario would allow for a bigger scope
and more accuracy[11]. Decision Tree is algorithm that can perform both classification and
regression tasks. They are very powerful algorithms, capable of fitting complex datasets.
Besides, decision trees are fundamental components of random forests, which are among the
most potent Machine Learning algorithms available today.
The use of decision trees is extremely common. Because of its simplicity and transparency, it is
widely used in data mining. Decision trees are frequently graphically depicted as a hierarchical
structure, which makes them easier to understand than alternative strategies[12]. This structure
primarily consists of a root node and a series of branches (conditions) that lead to additional
nodes until we reach the leaf node, which holds the route's final conclusion. Because of its
straightforward form, the decision tree is a self-explanatory model. Each internal node tests an
attribute, and each branch corresponds to the value of that attribute (or range of values). At the
end of the process, each lead assigns a classification.
This paper is organized into five sections. In section 2, Data Preparation is presented. Section 3
provides brief details about commonly used methods for classification model evaluation. In
section 4, experimental results are presented and analyzed with respect to model results and
discussion. Finally recommendation is presented in Section 5

II. Data Preparation

The data were gathered in the different parts of the Philippines, Antipolo,
Binan, Cavite, Dasmarinas, Quezon City, Rizal, and Tanauan. The gathered data
will be use to predict next academic year by using rapid miner.

Decision Tree Predicti on

700
600
500
400
300
200
Figure 1. PREDICTION USING DECISION TREE METHOD.
100
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
III. MethodADE DE DE DE DE DE DE DE DE DE DE DE
GR G RA G RA G RA G RA G RA G RA G RA G RA RA RA RA
G G G

2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021

 The Predictive Analysis of the Enrollment of Schools Using Regression Algorithms
assessment approach will be performed in phases. The first stage is data collection, the
dataset is collected and combined with varieties of data. Next is data cleaning, removing
unnecessary data, and preparing the important data needed for predicting the model. Next
is splitting, the given data will be split into two parts, the first one is the training dataset and
the second is the testing dataset. The next step is to train the data using the regression
algorithms assessment approach. The final stage is building the model and assessing the
performance based on the dataset. In conclusion, there are different techniques that will be
used to assess the dataset to know if the model is the perfect fit for it for instance

Methodology
Data cleaning increased the dataset's quality by utilizing correlation to find the relevant
attributes, eliminating duplicate entries, and organizing data. The end result will be a dataset
ready for further training and testing.

IV. Result and Discussion

 Linear regression must dictate that all values must be set to numerical
counterparts evaluated to predict the total enrollee for the academic year

For training and testing datasets with random values, the data was separated into 70
percent and 30 percent coefficients. The table below shows the outcome of the forecast with
the average number of values. The average values indicate the dataset's most accurate
forecast.

MINIMUM MAXIMUM AVERAGE

TOTAL 59 1606 832.5
PREDICTION 0.60 448.81 224.70
Table 1. THE STATISTIC AND AVERAGE OF THE VALUE AND PREDICTED VALUES.

The range of values for the total and prediction are closely connected, but there is a
substantial difference in the range of values for the minimum and maximum values. The exact
figures comprise a prognosis that differs from the previous three academic years; as a result, the
prediction follows the pattern of the entering kindergarten's assumption based on the trend.
 Gender is one of the most important factors to consider when making a prediction. The
statistical value of each parameter determines the viability of prediction; consequently, the
dataset's strength will reveal the link between each predictive value shown above.

MODEL ABSOLUTE RELATIVE TRAINING SCORING

ERROR ERROR TIME TIME
DEEP LEARNING 34.062 57.4% 429 MS 16 MS
DECISION TREE 34.369 56.8% 3 MS 3 MS
GENERALIZE 35.119 57.9% 8 MS 3 MS
LINEAR MODEL

RANDOM 36.213 59% 20 MS 20 MS

FOREST

GRADIENT 33.994 57.3% 69 MS 69 MS

BOOSTED TREES

SUPPORT 31.604 54.6% 1 MS 1 MS

VECTOR
MACHINE

V. Conclusion

With the data we gathered after we run it in data miner we proved that
Decision tree is the second best option to use in predicting data such as this.
Decision tree achieved being the fastest total and fastest scoring model out of the
other models there is in data miner.

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