8 June 2011 Economics & FI/FX Research

Markets Today

News and Events MONEY MARKET FUTURES

Euribor Last 1D ch (bp) 1M ch (bp)
■ Fed: Yesterday, Bernanke said the recovery is “frustratingly slow, Jun11 1.49 1.5 -3.0
uneven and well below potential”, and that the current accommodative Sep11 1.74 1.0 -5.0
monetary policy stance is still needed. Dec11 1.93 2.5 -6.0
■ JN: April trade balance recorded a JPY 417.5bn deficit. In the first 20 Mar12 2.06 3.5 -8.0
days of May the trade deficit was JPY 1.05tn. Eurodollar Last 1D ch (bp) 1M ch (bp)

■ GE (I): In April, exports plunged by 5.5% mom, while imports declined by Jun11 0.26 -0.3 -2.3
Sep11 0.33 -0.5 0.0
2.5%. Accordingly, the trade surplus narrowed to EUR 10.9bn from
Dec11 0.39 -0.5 -2.0
18.8bn in the previous month.
Mar12 0.47 0.0 -8.0
■ GE (II): We expect April industrial production to grow 0.2% mom (vs. Sterling Last 1D ch (bp) 1M ch (bp)
0.7% in March). Jun11 0.83 0.0 0.0
■ EMU: The GDP expenditure breakdown for 1Q11 will be released today. Sep11 0.90 0.0 -3.0
We expect that the upside surprise came from domestic demand, but net Dec11 1.01 0.0 -8.0
exports are expected to have added to growth as well. Mar12 1.13 0.0 -12.0

■ US: Today, the Fed will publish the Beige Book. GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS
EGB Last 1D ch (bp) 1M ch (bp)
(C.Corsa, UniCredit Bank Milan)
2Y (BKO Mar13) 1.65 4.5 -4
5Y (DE0 Feb16) 2.34 4.1 -10
FI/FX Strategy 10Y (DBR Jan21) 3.04 5.4 -3
■ Mkt recap/Overnight: Yesterday, some improvement in risk appetite 30Y (DBR Jul40) 3.63 5.4 0
and a bit of supply pressure (from Belgium) pushed Bund yields up. The 2/10 138 1 2
10Y closed just below 3.10% (+7bp) while the 2Y rose to 1.71%. UST Last 1D ch (bp) 1M ch (bp)

Bernanke's dovish tone weighed on US equities and helped USTs 2Y (T Mar13) 0.38 -0.9 -14
5Y (T Nov15) 1.36 -1.6 -31
erasing previous losses. The 2Y yield hit its lowest level since November.
10Y (T Feb21) 2.96 1.0 -21
■ FI view: Market uncertainty remains high and a light data calendar today
30Y (T Feb40) 4.25 0.7 -6
should favor choppy trading. News regarding Greece remains a wildcard. 2/10 258 2 -7
Bunds might remain on the sell side ahead of the ECB meeting UK Last 1D ch (bp) 1M ch (bp)
tomorrow, with yields edging up especially at the short end. 2Y (GB0 Mar13) 0.88 1.1 -10
■ IT (I): Italy has mandated banks to sell a new 15Y BTPei 15Sep2026. A 5Y (UKT Sep15) 1.90 2.5 -13
linear interpolation of BTPei Sep23 and BTPeiSep41 yields a BE level in 10Y (UKT Sep20) 3.33 6.4 -3
the 210/212bp area. Subtracting this from the BTP Mar26 yield level, 30Y (UKT Dec40) 4.21 6.7 1

results in a real yield of ca. 2.98%, 25bp above the BTPei Sep23. OATei 2/10 245 5.3 7
10Y Spreads Last 1D ch (bp) 1M ch (bp)
Jul27 trades at 1.61% with a BE (vs. OAT Apr26) of 223bp.
T/Bund (time adj.) -7 -6 -12
■ IT (II): On 10 June, Italy will sell EUR 6bn of 12M BOT 15Jun12, much
UKT/Bund 26 1 -1
less than the EUR 10.1bn expiring (EUR 6.6bn from a 12M and EUR BTP/Bund (2020) 164 2 0
3.5bn form a 3M). On 14 June, it will reopen the BTP 3.75% Apr16, while GGB/Bund (2020) 1271 -1 19
it will not sell long maturity bonds. SPGB/Bund 233 1 5
■ FX View: The USD remains on offer after the dovish Fed Bernanke, but PGB/Bund (2020) 722 0 20
the upcoming ECB & BoE meetings may still spark some book squaring CURRENCIES
later today, also taking into account that the data calendar is fairly light. Currencies Last 1D ch (%) 1M ch (%)
EUR-USD 1.4674 0.7 2.2
■ EUR: Debate about the definitive green light to the new rescue plan for
USD-JPY 80.06 0.0 -0.4
Greece did not prevent investors from pushing EUR-USD towards 1.47. USD-CHF 0.8365 0.2 -4.0
We would remain long ahead of the ECB’s verdict tomorrow. GBP-USD 1.6427 0.4 0.1
■ CHF: EUR-CHF managed to recover back to 1.23, as the SNB may stay EUR-JPY 117.48 0.6 1.8
on hold on rates next week. Indeed, as long as USD-CHF stays below EUR-GBP 0.8933 0.2 2.0
0.85, EUR-CHF upside potential should remain quite limited. EUR-CHF 1.2274 0.9 -2.0
EUR-SEK 9.01 -0.1 0.3
■ GBP: Cable holding the line above 1.64, despite weak UK data, indicates EUR-NOK 7.84 0.0 -0.2
that sterling is largely USD dependent for now and that any EUR-GBP OVERNIGHT
break above 0.90 should be capped, even in case of a firmer EUR-USD. Last O'night 1m ch. (%)
■ NZD: The RBNZ should remain on hold on rates tonight, but may sound S&P 1284.9 -0.60% -3.9%
slightly more hawkish in its statement. In turn, this may push NZD-USD Nikkei 9449.0 0.06% -2.1%
above 0.8250 and AUD-NZD back to the 1.2950/1.29 area. Oil (WTI) 98.7 0.20% -5.6%
O’night denotes changes between 6:00 pm and 7:45 am
■ NOK: Norway’s industrial production should reveal a sound 0.5% mom
Prices at: 08:00 a.m.
rise for April today. However, this will not be sufficient to trigger a EUR-
Bloomberg: UCGR, UCFR
NOK sustained break towards the 7.82 base again. Internet: www.research.unicreditgroup.eu
(L.Cazzulani, C. Cremonesi, E. Lattuga, R. Mialich, UniCredit Bank Milan)

UniCredit Research page 1 See last pages for disclaimer.

 8 June 2011 Economics & FI/FX Research
Markets Today

DATA & EVENTS CALENDAR

Time UniCredit Exp. Mkt

Country Data Period Consensus Previous
(CET) Est. Impact

08 June
09.00 EU EU Rehn speaks on Governance to EU Parliament - - - - *
10.00 NO Industrial Production (mom) Apr - 0.5% 0.9% *
11.00 IT Bank of Italy Lending & Bad Debt Data Apr - - - *
11.00 EU GDP (qoq/yoy) 1QP 0.8/2.5% 0.8/2.5% 0.8/2.5% **
12.00 GE Industrial Production (mom) Apr 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% ***
14.15 CA Housing Starts May - 184K 179K *
18.00 EU EU Rehn speaks in Koenigstein - - - - *
20.00 US Fed Beige Book - - - - ***
23.00 NZ RBNZ Cash Rate - 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% ***
09-June
01.50 JN GDP Annualized (yoy) 1QF - -3.1% -3.7% *
02.00 NZ MoF English speaks in Wellington - - - - *
03.15 NZ RBNZ Bollard speaks at Finance Select Committee - - - - **
03.30 AU Unemployment Rate May - 4.9% 4.9% *
*=low importance, ** =medium importance, *** = high importance
PRIMARY MARKET
Gross Supply Liquidity
Date Week day Country Bond in issue Amount Maturity bucket Country Bond Amount Cpn
redeemed Amount
(-) (-) IT New 15Y ILB, BTPei Sep26 3 - - ILB

08-Jun Wed FI RFGB Apr21 0 / 1.5 10Y

BKO 1 1/2
10-Jun Fri IT 12M BOT 6 MM GE 15
10Jun11
14-Jun Tue NL DSL Jan14 2.5 / 3.5 5Y

SP 12M & 18M T-bills 5 / 6 MM

14-Jun Tue IT BTP Apr16 3 / 3.5 5Y

GR 26W T-bills - - - MM
PGB 5.15
15-Jun Wed GE Schatz Jun13 6 - - 2Y PT 4.9 1.7
15Jun11
PT BT Sep11 & Dec11 0.75 / 1.25 MM

16-Jun Thu FR New Btan Aug16 & 3Y Btan 8.5 / 9 3Y & 5Y

FR OATei, OATi, BTNi auction 1.5 / 2 ILB

16-Jun Thu SP SPGB Apr21 & Jul26 3.5 / 4 10Y & 15Y

21-Jun Tue SP 3M & 6M T-bills 2 / 3 MM

NL New DSL Jan17 5 / 6 5Y

21-Jun Tue GR 13W T-bills - - - MM

BGB
22-Jun Wed GE Bund Jul21 4 - - 10Y BE 3
22Jun11
24-Jun Fri IT BTPei Sep16 1.5 / 2 ILB

27-Jun Mon BE 3Y, 5Y & 10Y BGB 3 / 3.5 3Y, 5Y &10Y

IT 6M BOT 9 - - MM
27-Jun Mon IT CTZ Apr13 2 / 2.5 CTZ

28-Jun Tue IT BTP Apr14 & BTP Sep21 6 / 6.5 3Y & 10Y

IT CCTeu Apr18 1.5 / 2 CCT

29-Jun Wed GE Obl Apr16 6 - - 5Y
CTZ
30-Jun Thu - - - - - - IT 12.1
30Jun11
Numbers and bonds in grey indicate our estimates.

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 8 June 2011 Economics & FI/FX Research
Markets Today

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 8 June 2011 Economics & FI/FX Research
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UniCredit Research*

Thorsten Weinelt, CFA Dr. Ingo Heimig

Global Head of Research & Chief Strategist Head of Research Operations
+49 89 378-15110 +49 89 378-13952
[email protected] [email protected]

Economics & FI/FX Research

Economics & Commodity Research EEMEA Economics & FI/FX Strategy

European Economics Gillian Edgeworth, Chief EEMEA Economist
+44 0207 826 1772, [email protected]
Marco Valli, Chief Eurozone Economist
+39 02 8862-8688 Gyula Toth, Head of EEMEA FI/FX Strategy
[email protected] +43 50505 823-62, [email protected]
Andreas Rees, Chief German Economist Güldem Atabay, Economist, Turkey
+49 89 378-12576 +90 212 385 9551, [email protected]
[email protected]
Dmitry Gourov, Economist, EEMEA
Stefan Bruckbauer, Chief Austrian Economist +43 50505 823-64, [email protected]
+43 50505 41951
[email protected] Hans Holzhacker, Chief Economist, Kazakhstan
+7 727 244-1463, [email protected]
Tullia Bucco
+39 02 8862-2079 Marcin Mrowiec, Chief Economist, Poland
[email protected] +48 22 656-0678, [email protected]

Chiara Corsa Rozália Pál, Ph.D., Chief Economist, Romania

+39 02 8862-2209 +40 21 203-2376, [email protected]
[email protected] Kristofor Pavlov, Chief Economist, Bulgaria
Dr. Loredana Federico +359 2 9269-390, [email protected]
+39 02 8862-3180 Goran Šaravanja, Chief Economist, Croatia
[email protected] +385 1 6006-678, [email protected]
Mauro Giorgio Marrano Pavel Sobisek, Chief Economist, Czech Republic
+39 02 8862-8222 +420 2 211-12504, [email protected]
[email protected]
Dmitry Veselov, Ph.D., Economist, EEMEA
Alexander Koch, CFA +44 207 826 1808, [email protected]
+49 89 378-13013
[email protected] Vladimír Zlacký, Chief Economist, Slovakia
+421 2 4950-2267, [email protected]
Chiara Silvestre
[email protected]
Global FI/FX Strategy
US Economics Michael Rottmann, Head
+49 89 378-15121, [email protected]
Dr. Harm Bandholz, CFA, Chief US Economist
+1 212 672 5957 Dr. Luca Cazzulani, Deputy Head, FI Strategy
[email protected] +39 02 8862-0640, [email protected]
Chiara Cremonesi, FI Strategy
Commodity Research +44 20 7826-1771, [email protected]

Jochen Hitzfeld Elia Lattuga, FI Strategy

+49 89 378-18709 +39 02 8862-2027, [email protected]
[email protected]
Armin Mekelburg, FX Strategy
Nikolaus Keis +49 89 378-14307, [email protected]
+49 89 378-12560
Roberto Mialich, FX Strategy
[email protected]
+39 02 8862-0658, [email protected]
Kornelius Purps, FI Strategy
+49 89 378-12753, [email protected]
Herbert Stocker, Technical Analysis
+49 89 378-14305, [email protected]

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Tel +39 02 8862.2019 - Fax +39 02 8862.2585 www.research.unicreditgroup.eu

*UniCredit Research is the joint research department of UniCredit Bank AG (UniCredit Bank), UniCredit CAIB Group (UniCredit CAIB), UniCredit Securities (UniCredit Securities),
UniCredit Menkul Değerler A.Ş. (UniCredit Menkul), UniCredit Bulbank, Zagrebačka banka, UniCredit Bank, Bank Pekao, Yapi Kredi, UniCredit Tiriac Bank and ATFBank.

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