Security Analysis and Portfolio Management v1.1
Security Analysis and Portfolio Management v1.1
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CERTIFICATE
This is to certify that Stuti Mahajan, a student of MBA III Sem has undertaken a
major research project entitled “SECURITY ANALYSIS AND PORTFOLIO
MANAGEMENT” under my guidance and supervision for the partial fulfilment of
requirement of the degree MBA (Full Time) of Devi Ahilya Vishwavidyalaya, Indore for
year 2020-2022.
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DECLARATION
I, Stuti Mahajan, hereby declare that the major research project work which is
being presented in the report entitled “SECURITY ANALYSIS AND PORTFOLIO
MANAGEMENT” is an original work done by me and is submitted to the Devi Ahilya
University, Indore in partial fulfillment of requirement for the award of Master of
Business Administration.
I further declare that no material of this report has been copied from any source
and this report has not been submitted to any other University or institution for the award
of any degree, diploma or certificate. The materials obtained (and used) from other
sources have been duly acknowledged in the project.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Stuti Mahajan
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INDEX
Chapter 1: - Introduction Page No.
Objectives 07
Research Methodology 08
Limitations 08
History of Stock Exchange 09
Definition of Stock Exchange 10
Nature and Functions of Stock Exchange 10
Need for a Stock Exchange 12
By-Laws 13
Regulation of Stock Exchange 14
Securities And Exchange Board Of India (SEBI) 16
National Stock Exchange 19
Bombay Stock Exchange 22
4
Chapter 4: - Portfolio Analysis
Definition 65
Expected return of a portfolio 66
Chapter 6: - Conclusions 76
5
Chapter 1
Introduction
6
OBJECTIVES
7
RESEARCH
METHODOLOGY
SECONDARY DATA:
Data collected from various Books, Newspapers and
Internet.
LIMITATIONS
The major limitations of the project are:
8
HISTORY OF STOCK
EXCHANGE
The only stock exchanges operating in the 19th century were
those of Bombay set up in 1875 and Ahmedabad set up in 1894.
These were Efficient Market Hypothesis organized as voluntary
non-profit-making association of brokers to regulate and protect
their interests. Before the control on securities trading became
a central subject under the constitution in 1950, it was a state
subject and the Bombay securities contracts (control) Act of
1925 used to regulate trading in securities. Under this Act, The
Bombay Stock Exchange was recognized in 1927 and Ahmedabad
in 1937.
9
DEFINITION OF STOCK
EXCHANGE:
"Stock exchange means anybody or individuals whether
incorporated or not, constituted for the purpose of assisting,
regulating or controlling the business of buying, selling or
dealing in securities."
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NEED FOR A STOCK
EXCHANGE
A stock exchange is where different financial instruments are
traded, including equities, commodities, and bonds. Exchanges
bring corporations and governments, together with investors.
Exchanges help provide liquidity in the market, meaning there
are enough buyers and sellers so that trades can be processed
efficiently without delays.
12
BY-LAWS
Besides the above act, the securities contracts (regulation) rules
were also made in 1957 to regulate certain matters of trading on
the stock exchanges. There are also by-laws of exchanges, which
are concerned with the following subjects:
13
REGULATION OF
STOCK EXCHANGE
Indian Capital Markets are regulated and monitored by the
Ministry of Finance, The Securities and Exchange Board of India
and The Reserve Bank of India.
15
SECURITIES AND
EXCHANGE BOARD OF
INDIA (SEBI)
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) is the
regulatory body for securities and commodity market in India
under the jurisdiction of Ministry of Finance , Government of
India. It was established on 12 April 1988 and given Statutory
Powers on 30 January 1992 through the SEBI Act, 1992.
16
SEBI has to be responsive to the needs of three groups, which
constitute the market:
issuers of securities
investors
market intermediaries
17
OBJECTIVES OF SEBI
FUNCTIONS OF SEBI
18
Registering and regulating the working of collective
investment schemes including Mutual Funds.
Promoting and regulating self-regulatory organizations.
Prohibiting fraudulent and unfair trade practices in the
securities market. Promoting investor's education and
training of intermediaries in securities market. Prohibiting
Insiders Trading in securities.
Regulating substantial acquisition of shares and take-over
of companies
Calling for information, understanding inspection,
conducting enquiries and audits of the Stock Exchanges,
Intermediaries and Self-Regulatory organizations in the
securities market.
NATIONAL STOCK
EXCHANGE
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which was founded by the Indian government to provide
solutions to simplify participation in the stock market and make
it more accessible to all interested parties. In 1994, the NSE
introduced electronic trading in the Indian stock exchange
market.
NSE-NIFTY:
The NSE on April 22, 1996, launched a new equity Index. The
NSE-50. The new Index which replaces the existing NSE-100
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Index is expected to serve as an appropriate Index for the new
segment of futures and options.
The base period for the index is the close of prices on Nov3,
1995 which makes one year of completion of operation of NSE's
capital market segment. The base value of the Index has been
set at 1000.
NSE-MIDCAP INDEX:
The base period for the index is Nov 4, 1996 which signifies two
years for completion of operations of the capital market
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segment of the operation. The base value of the Index has been
set at 1000. Average daily turn over of the present scenario
2,58,212 (Lacs) and number of average daily trades 2,160 (Lacs).
At present, there are 24 stock exchanges recognized under the
Securities Contract (Regulation) Act, 1956.
BOMBAY STOCK
EXCHANGE
The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) is Asia's oldest stock
exchange. Based in Mumbai, India, BSE was established in 1875
as the Native Share & Stockbrokers’ Association. Prior to that
brokers and traders would gather under banyan trees to conduct
transactions.
BSE INDICES:
New base year average = old base year average *(new market
value/old market value
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Chapter 2
SECURITY
ANALYSIS
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Definition:
For making proper investment involving both risk and return, the
investor has to make study of the alternative avenues of the
investment-their risk and return characteristics and make a
proper projection or expectation of the risk and return of the
alternative investments under consideration. He must tune the
expectations to this preference of the risk and return for making
a proper investment choice. The process of analyzing the
individual securities and the market as a whole and estimating
the risk and return expected from each of the investments with
a view to identify undervalues securities for buying and
overvalues securities for selling is both an art and a science that
is what called security analysis.
Security:
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In the strict sense of the word, a security is an instrument of
promissory note or a method of borrowing or lending or a source
of contributing to the funds need by a corporate body or non-
corporate body, private security for example is also a security as
it is a promissory note of an individual or firm and gives rise to
claim on money. But such private securities of private
companies or promissory notes of individuals, partnership, or
firm to the intent that their marketability is poor or nil, are not
part of the capital market and do not constitute part of the
security analysis.
Analysis of securities:
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Modern security analysis relies on the fundamental analysis of
the security, leading to its intrinsic worth and also rise-return
analysis depending on the variability of the returns, covariance,
safety of funds and the projection of the future returns.
Fundamental Analysis
Technical Analysis
Efficient Market Hypothesis
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FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
It's a logical and systematic approach to estimating the future
dividends & share price as these two constitutes the return from
investing in shares. According to this approach, the share price
of a company is determined by the fundamental factors
affecting the Economy/ Industry/ Company such as Earnings Per
Share, DIP ratio, Competition, Market Share, Quality of
Management etc. it calculates the true worth of the share based
on it's present and future earning capacity and compares it with
the current market price to identify the mis-priced securities.
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MACRO ECONOMIC ANALYSIS:
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Agriculture and Monsoons:
Sentiments:
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COMPANY ANALYSIS
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know whether the stock is overvalued or undervalued. The
investment decision is to buy undervalued stock and sell
overvalued stock.
A. Financial analysis:
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company is more profitable than the other and also to state the
cause and factors that are probably responsible for this.
1. Comparative statement.
2. Trend analysis
3. Common-size statement
6. Ratio analysis
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1. Comparative statement:
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2. Trend Analysis:
(I) One year is taken as a base year generally, the first or the
last is taken as base year.
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trend percentage will be less than 100 and it will be more than
the 100 it figure is more than the base year figures. Each year's
figure is divided by the base years figure.
3. Common-size statement:
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(ii) The individual assets are expressed as a percentage of total
assets, i.e., 100 and
different liabilities are calculated in relation to total liabilities.
For example, if total assets are RS.5 lakhs and inventory value is
Rs.50,000, then it will be 10% of total assets i.e. (50,000 x
100) / (5,00,000)
b) Addition to investments.
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d) Decrease in net worth by incurring of loans, withdrawal
of funds from business and payment of dividends.
Cash flow is used for only cash inflow and outflow. The cash
flows are prepared from cash budgets and operation of the
company. In cash flows only cash and bank balance are involved
and hence it is a narrower term than the concept of funds flows.
The cash flow statement explains how the dividends are paid;
how fixed assets are financed. The analysis had to know the real
cash flow position of company, its liquidity and solvency, which
are reflected in the cash flow position and the statements
thereof.
6. Ratio analysis:
40
Ratio analysis will be meaningful to establish relationship
regarding financial performance, operational efficiency, and
profit margins with respect to companies over a period and as
between companies within the same industry group.
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(V) Operating profit ratio
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Technical analysis involves a study of market-generated
data like prices and volumes to determine the future direction
of price movement. Technical analysis analyses internal market
data with the help of charts and graphs. Subscribing to the
'castles in the air' approach, they view the investment game as
an exercise in anticipating the behavior of market participants.
They look at charts to understand what the market participants
42
have been doing and believe that this provides a basis for
predicting future behavior.
Definition:
-Martin J. Pring
43
The Dow theory
Charles
H.DOW
The bar chart is one of the simplest and commonly used tools of
technical analysis, depicts the daily price range along with the
closing price. It also shows the daily volume of transactions. A
line chart shows the line connecting successive closing prices.
44
Point and figure chart:
securities rise rapidly during the bull phase but fall slowly during
strength.
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TECHNICAL INDICATORS:
Breadth indicators
BREADTH INDICATORS:
46
a. Calculate the number of net advances/ declines daily
basis.
advances/ declines.
1. Short-Interest Ratio:
47
2. PUT I CALL RATIO:
put / call ratio. Speculators buy calls when they are bullish and
buy puts when they are bearish. Since speculators are often
3. Mutual-Fund Liquidity:
48
Conversely when the mutual fund liquidity is high, it means that
mutual funds are bearish. So, constrains believe that the market
movement.
i.e., the investors will have full knowledge about the securities.
50
adjustment" to the changes in the economy, industry and
Weakly Efficient: -
past price movements and any new price change is the result of
analysis.
Semi-Strongly Efficient: -
prices not only reflect all historical information but also reflect
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all publicly available information about the company as soon as
Strongly Efficient: -
52
Hypothesis is that both the analysis is required to make the
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Chapter 3
PORTFOLIO
MANAGEMENT
Portfolio Management:
Portfolio Management is the art and science of making decisions
about investment mix and policy, matching investments to
objectives, asset allocation for individuals and institutions, and
balancing risk against performance. The art of selecting the
right investment policy for the individuals in terms of minimum
risk and maximum return is called as portfolio management. It
also refers to managing an individual’s investments in the form
of bonds, shares, cash, mutual funds, etc. so that he earns the
maximum profits within the specific time frame. Portfolio
management refers to managing money of an individual under
the expert guidance of portfolio managers. It is done by
analyzing the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats
in different investment alternatives to have a risk return trade
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off. Understanding the dynamics of market is the essence of
Portfolio Management. This means Portfolio Management
basically deals with three critical questions of investment
planning.
1. Where to Invest?
2. When to Invest?
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Types of Portfolio Management:
Portfolio Management is further of the following types –
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Features of portfolio management
Allocation of Assets
This is the base for portfolio management where assets with low
correlation with each other are mixed in a certain way so that
the risk and return profile of the investor are Investors who have
huge risk appetite can settle for a more volatile group of assets
while the risk-averse investors can go for subtle or stable
investment classes.
Diversification of Investment
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Investment/Asset Rebalancing
Since markets are not same every year; the asset allocation
needs to be rebalanced according to the market prediction for
the similar period. Another scenario is over the period of time,
the ratio of asset classes in the portfolio changes on its own due
to the returns accumulated. For example, in the beginning, you
invested 60% in shares and 40% in FDs but with the passage of
time, the ratio changed to 75:25 ratio which has put your
investment at risk. The portfolio manager keeps an eye on the
portfolio and whenever he or she feels that the portfolio has
crossed the level of the risk appetite of the investor, they
rebalance it accordingly.
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Finding asset which will match the objectives of the
investor.
Preparing a full investment policy according to the analysis
of the investor.
Monitoring the portfolio continuously.
Rebalancing it over and over again when the required ratio
of asset allocation changes.
Discuss with the client/investor about the analysis of his
invest from time to time and how to optimize the returns.
Based on the performance of the portfolio and updated
objectives of the investor, the portfolio manager must
rebalance the portfolio.
PORTFOLIO SELECTION
Portfolio analysis provides the input for the next phase in
portfolio management, which is portfolio selection. The proper
goal of portfolio construction is to get high returns at a given
level of risk. The inputs from portfolio analysis can be used to
identify the set of efficient portfolios. From this set of
portfolios, the optimal portfolio has to be selected for
investment.
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MARKOWITZ MODEL
Harry M. Markowitz is credited with introducing new concept of
risk measurement and their application to the selection of
portfolios. He started with the idea of risk aversion of investors
and their desire to maximize expected return with the least
risk.
Markowitz used mathematical programming and statistical
analysis in order to arrange for the optimum allocation of assets
within portfolio. To reach this objective, Markowitz generated
portfolios within a reward-risk context. In other words, he
considered the variance in the expected returns from
investments and their relationship to each other in constructing
portfolios. In essence, Markowitz's model is a theoretical
framework for the analysis of risk return choices. Decisions are
based on the concept of efficient portfolios.
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found. As this process is repeated for other expected returns,
set of efficient portfolios is generated.
Assumptions
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portfolio of assets offers higher expected return with the same
(or lower) risk or lower risk with the same (or higher) expected
return.
MARKOWITZ DIVERSIFICATION
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returns. Because of this focus on the mean and standard
deviation the CAPM is a direct extension of the portfolio models
developed by Markowitz and Sharpe.
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Chapter 4
PORTFOLIO
ANALYSIS
65
Definition:
Portfolio Analysis is the process of reviewing or assessing the
elements of the entire portfolio of securities or products in a
business. The review is done for careful analysis of risk and
return. Portfolio analysis conducted at regular intervals helps
the investor to make changes in the portfolio allocation and
change them according to the changing market and different
circumstances. The analysis also helps in proper resource / asset
allocation to different elements in the portfolio.
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select an optimum one out of these efficient portfolios can be
selected in the next step.
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Chapter 5
PRACTICAL STUDY
OF SOME
SELECTED SCRIPS
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Risk and return analysis for two different portfolios mentioned
below:
Portfolio A Portfolio B
NTPC Limited Britannia Industries Limited
Cipla Limited Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited
Wipro Limited Reliance Industries Limited
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Portfolio -A
Company Name: NTPC Limited
Date Closing Price X-X' (X-X')2
2021-11-29 126.5 -0.13 0.0169
2021-11-30 127.25 0.62 0.3844
2021-12-01 127.7 1.07 1.1449
2021-12-02 128.7 2.07 4.2849
2021-12-03 127 0.37 0.1369
2021-12-06 124.35 -2.28 5.1984
2021-12-07 125.35 -1.28 1.6384
2021-12-08 127.25 0.62 0.3844
2021-12-09 126.05 -0.58 0.3364
2021-12-10 126.15 -0.48 0.2304
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Portfolio -A
Company Name: Cipla Limited
Date Closing Price X-X' (X-X')2
2021-11-29
965 48.17 2320.3489
2021-11-30
971.3 54.47 2966.9809
2021-12-01
928.15 11.32 128.1424
2021-12-02
921.25 4.42 19.5364
2021-12-03
912.05 -4.78 22.8484
2021-12-06
894.95 -21.88 478.7344
2021-12-07
889.25 -27.58 760.6564
2021-12-08
897.95 -18.88 356.4544
2021-12-09
894.5 -22.33 498.6289
2021-12-10
893.9 -22.93 525.7849
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Portfolio -A
Company Name: Wipro Limited
Date Closing Price X-X' (X-X')2
2021-11-29
630.6 -6.425 41.280625
2021-11-30
637.25 0.225 0.050625
2021-12-01
634.8 -2.225 4.950625
2021-12-02
646.8 9.775 95.550625
2021-12-03
640.75 3.725 13.875625
2021-12-06
624.5 -12.525 156.875625
2021-12-07
632.4 -4.625 21.390625
2021-12-08
641.7 4.675 21.855625
2021-12-09
643.2 6.175 38.130625
2021-12-10
638.25 1.225 1.500625
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Portfolio -B
Company Name: Britannia Industries Limited
Date Closing Price X-X' (X-X')2
2021-11-29
3528.6 -25.81 666.1561
2021-11-30
3545.5 -8.91 79.3881
2021-12-01
3535.25 -19.16 367.1056
2021-12-02
3578.5 24.09 580.3281
2021-12-03
3553.75 -0.66 0.4356
2021-12-06
3496.2 -58.21 3388.404
2021-12-07
3474.2 -80.21 6433.644
2021-12-08
3575.75 21.34 455.3956
2021-12-09
3623.9 69.49 4828.86
2021-12-10
3632.45 78.04 6090.242
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Portfolio -B
Company Name: Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited
Date Closing Price X-X' (X-X')2
2021-11-29 2019.6 82.68 6835.982
2021-11-30 1961.9 24.98 624.0004
2021-12-01 1953.35 16.43 269.9449
2021-12-02 1964.25 27.33 746.9289
2021-12-03 1914.2 -22.72 516.1984
2021-12-06 1885.2 -51.72 2674.958
2021-12-07 1937.15 0.23 0.0529
2021-12-08 1920.45 -16.47 271.2609
2021-12-09 1916.35 -20.57 423.1249
2021-12-10 1896.75 -40.17 1613.629
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Company Name: Reliance Industries Limited
Date Closing Price X-X' (X-X')2
2021-11-29
2441.5 13.2 174.372025
2021-11-30
2405.4 -22.9 524.181025
2021-12-01
2467 38.7 1498.077025
2021-12-02
2482.85 54.55 2976.248025
2021-12-03
2408.25 -20.05 401.802025
2021-12-06
2362.6 -65.7 4315.833025
2021-12-07
2381.85 -46.45 2157.138025
2021-12-08
2418.1 -10.2 103.938025
2021-12-09
2456.45 28.15 792.704025
2021-12-10
2458.95 30.65 939.729025
Portfolio -B
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Portfolio -A
Portfolio -B
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INTERPERATION
From the above figures, in total there is a high return on
portfolio B companies when compared with portfolio A
companies. But at the same time if we compare the risk, risk is
less for companies in portfolio A when compared with portfolio
B companies. As per the Markowitz an efficient portfolio is one
with “Minimum risk, maximum profit” therefore, it is advisable
for an investor to work out his portfolio in such a way where he
can optimize his returns by evaluating and revising his portfolio
on a continuous basis.
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Chapter 6
CONCLUSIONS
78
CONCLUSIONS
Portfolio is collection of different securities and assets by
which we can satisfy the basic objective: Maximize yield
minimize risk. Further' we have to remember some important
investing rules.
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Study your tax position to known when you sell to greatest
advantages.
Always keep a good part of your capital in a cash reserve.
Never invest all your funds.
Don't try to be jack-off-all-investments. Stick to field you
had known best.
Purchasing stocks, you do not understand if you can't
explain it to a ten-year-old, just don't invest in it.
Over diversifying: This is the most oversold, overused,
logic-defying concept among stockbrokers and registered
investment advisors.
Not recognizing difference between value and price: This
goes along with the failure to compute the intrinsic value
of a stock, which are simply the discounted future earnings
of the business enterprise.
Failure to understand Mr. Market: Just because the market
has put a price on a business does not mean it is worth it.
Only an individual can determine the value of an
investment and then determine if the market price is
rational.
Failure to understand the impact of taxes: Also known as
the sorrows of compounding, just as compounding works to
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the investor's long-term advantage, the burden of taxes
because pf excessive trading works against building wealth
Too much focus on the market whether or not an individual
investment has merit and value has nothing to do with that
the overall market is doing
81