Implementing Brexit: Customs: Joe Owen Marcus Shepheard Alex Stojanovic
Implementing Brexit: Customs: Joe Owen Marcus Shepheard Alex Stojanovic
Implementing Brexit: Customs: Joe Owen Marcus Shepheard Alex Stojanovic
Implementing Brexit:
Customs
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/brexit
List of abbreviations 2
Summary 3
1. Introduction 6
Appendix A 43
References 46
List of abbreviations
AEO Authorised Economic Operator
EU European Union
This inevitably means significant changes to the way the UK border operates, whether
it is the Irish land border or ports and airports around the country. This is true
regardless of whether the UK continues as a member of the Single Market, creates a
new customs union or signs a ‘deep and comprehensive’ free trade agreement.
Traders who are used to moving goods freely to the EU will need to adapt. They will
have new requirements for paperwork and their goods could face significant checks at
the EU border. Supply chains that are optimised for speed and fluidity will need to find
the space and time for customs authorities to carry out checks and inspections.
For the UK, ‘taking back control’ of its borders is likely to mean the introduction of
checks for goods arriving from the EU. For the Ports of Dover and Holyhead and the
Channel Tunnel, which have adapted to EU membership and between them account for
almost half of all the UK’s trade in goods by value, the number of customs checks could
increase by a hundredfold. International agreements mean that there are certain
requirements that the UK must meet at its border; there is no option of simply deciding
to give EU goods preferential treatment without a deal between the two. That also
makes a deal critical to managing the specific set of challenges faced at the Irish
border.
The introduction of border checks between the UK and the EU could happen overnight.
As the Government has recognised, customs is a cliff-edge issue. On the day of exit
from the EU, the UK authorities will need to perform new functions or face disruption
at the border. There will be new document checks and fiscal requirements, which is the
primary focus of the Government’s view of customs, but also a number of other key
activities that regulate goods crossing borders. This report takes into account the
broader spectrum of activities which relate to the cross-border movement of goods.
Implementing the customs changes required for Brexit is a huge task with a hard
deadline. For government, successful delivery requires overcoming some big risks:
• With 19 months until exit, there is no clarity on what customs will need to look
like on day one of Brexit – currently 29 March 2019 (hereafter referred to as ‘day
one’). The UK Government has set out its preferences for an interim period and
options for a future relationship with the EU, but each brings with it different
implementation requirements. The EU will have its own position and until an
agreement is reached, whether it is a transitional or final arrangement, government
must continue to prepare for ‘no deal’, which means the most extreme change in the
shortest period of time.
• The Government has said it wants to explore options for transition that mean
business only has to adjust once to a new customs arrangement. The only option for
delivering this continuity looks very similar to applying all of the rules of EU
membership but leaving the political institutions. Until there is agreement on
• Preparing for day one requires government to orchestrate change across over 30
government departments and public bodies, with more than 100 local authority
organisations affected. Responsibility for different elements of the customs
process sits right across the public sector. From HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) to
the Horticultural Marketing Inspectorate, from Border Force to over 100 port health
authorities across the country, day-one delivery depends on a very large, disparate
group all working closely and effectively.
• Despite these government ICT challenges, new and innovative technology is being
touted as the answer to the Brexit customs problem. With less than two years to
deliver and no clear idea of what this ‘new technology’ is, ministers must be clear
about what is and what is not feasible.
But the biggest risk for government is just how little of the process it controls. If the
UK is going to avoid the customs cliff edge, the Government is one of many different
players who are needed to be ready if disruption is to be minimised:
• There are 180,000 traders who will need to make customs declarations for the first
time after exit; many of whom will be small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
They will need to manage increased administration and incur the cost of doing so.
The introduction of customs declarations alone could end up costing traders in
the region of £4 billion (bn) a year. For these traders to be ready for exit,
government must be clear about when and how they must adapt, and leave them
enough time to do so. Until they are given some certainty on what is required from
them on day one, the amount of this work that can take place is limited.
• There is a cliff edge at the other side of the English Channel too. Even if the UK’s
border is ready for Brexit, issues in Calais, Rotterdam or other European ports could
cause significant disruption for British exporters and supply chains. The famous
queues of lorries along the M20 in Kent in June 2015 were a result of problems on
the French side, not in Dover. Government is dependent on the successful
preparation of European partners. Engagement and collaboration are critical but so
is certainty on what customs after Brexit will look like.
• HMRC should replicate the Union Customs Code (UCC) in its entirety for its
immediate post-Brexit plans, as it has indicated it will. The UK’s existing customs
system is designed around this and keeping it will help to ensure continuity.
• HMRC must prioritise the delivery of its ICT ‘Customs Declaration Services’
programme in its current form, delivering the basics before introducing new
functionality.
• Ministers must recognise that ‘innovative, new ICT’ is not a viable option in the
short term.
• The Department for Exiting the European Union should seek to negotiate continued
access to EU customs systems, in particular the EU’s New Computerised Transit
System (NCTS) and the Common Transit Convention.
• HMRC and Border Force need to recognise the constraints at the physical border
and find means to limit the activity required at key ports or crossings, such as
trusted trader schemes.
• HMRC, Border Force, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra),
the Department for Exiting the European Union and other key public bodies and
departments must expand engagement with the private sector beyond the Joint
Customs Consultative Committee. They should use more detailed working groups to
manage implementation and the dependencies on the private sector as well as
detailed transition planning for traders – with, as already noted, 180,000 traders
due to make customs declarations for the very first time after exit.
This is our second paper looking at how Brexit will affect specific areas of government
policy and what steps need to be taken to implement the necessary changes. Our last
paper looked at how changing our immigration system creates implementation
challenges.1 This paper takes a similar look at the requirements associated with
implementing changes to our customs regime.
We present two views of customs: the first captures the current situation while the
second presents an assessment of how customs could look after Brexit. We then
examine six key areas where the Government and the private sector will need to
deliver in order to ensure that the UK’s system of customs continues to function, and
function well:
1. Policy and legislation – key policy questions facing Whitehall and how the
Government can ensure that legislation is passed to avoid a cliff edge.
2. Technology – the essential ICT work under way to prepare for day one of Brexit, the
viability of ‘new technology’ as a solution to Brexit border problems and key EU
systems for negotiators to focus on.
3. Customs infrastructure – the constraints that limit the potential for expanding
customs infrastructure in response to increasing demand and how the Government
should look for alternative solutions that shift the emphasis of customs away from
the border.
5. Preparing business – how the Government should work with the extensive private
sector interests in customs to ensure that issues are addressed and there is
sufficient preparation and capacity for customs on day one.
6. A canyon, not a cliff edge – there are two sides to the cliff edge and preparations
across the Channel are just as important as preparations in the UK for minimising
disruption.
The breadth and complexity of customs pose a challenge to any summary analysis of
this kind. The focus of our research has been on the impacts on the major seaports and
the Channel Tunnel link. The lessons that can be learned there are applicable to
This paper does not cover what the legal oversight of customs might look like after
Brexit, or how this will affect supply chains. These issues are discussed in several of our
other Brexit-related reports.
Take, for example, a Turkish manufacturer of white goods to be exported to the EU.
They load a crate of the goods onto a container, put it on the back of a lorry and it is
driven away from the factory. Government has already been notified of the trade
through an export declaration, submitted electronically by a ‘freight forwarder’ – a third
party paid by the exporter to handle paperwork and transport the goods. The goods are
taken to the ‘port of exit’ to leave the country, but before they can do so they need to
be cleared by customs authorities.2 The authorities carry out a risk assessment, based
largely on the information submitted in the export declaration, and decide whether or
not the goods need inspecting. If they are cleared without inspection, they are loaded
onto a ship and head towards their destination. If they require inspection, they must
first be placed in storage to await inspection from port authorities.
Next stop is the ‘port of entry’. The goods are presented to the authorities of the
country of entry via another declaration. The white goods are unloaded and placed in
temporary storage while the country of entry conducts another risk assessment. Once
all applicable duties have been paid and the goods have been cleared, the container is
loaded onto another lorry and transported to the importer’s storage space. From there
it is distributed to local stores.
What we call customs goes beyond simply the collection of tariffs on goods as they are
traded (see Table 1). It involves enforcement of a wider set of rules and regulations that
determines what can be traded and how it is treated by authorities.
With falling tariffs and higher volumes of trade, focus has shifted from revenue
generation and towards security, regulations and standards. Governments are focused
on the careful management of what is going in and out of their country – preventing
smuggling, making sure that animals aren’t carrying diseases, checking that food is safe
to eat, ensuring that chemicals are properly handled and car parts aren’t faulty and,
crucially, making sure that their domestic traders aren’t being unfairly undercut.4 These
rules and regulations are just as important as duties and taxes being collected (if not
more so).
Modern customs systems must strike a balance between providing this security and
facilitating the flow of goods. There are 37 million tonnes of trade a year passing
through Southampton alone, including more than a million containers. Inspecting every
import or export would be a massive undertaking, creating delays and blockages.
To minimise unnecessary checks and prevent disruption to supply chains, customs has
become intelligence led. Risk assessments help customs authorities to target
inspections, identifying goods or traders that present most risk while allowing
legitimate trade to pass as freely as possible. As a result of this approach, documentary
checks are carried out on less than 3% of imports (non-EU only and further specialist
checks may take place for highly regulated goods).5 Decisions on what to check are
driven by information such as where the good is from, the volume and type of good
and the trading history of the importer or exporter. A small package from an unknown
trader is treated with greater scepticism than a weekly consignment from a company
that has been shipping like clockwork for the past 20 years.
The reduction in customs procedures for trade between EU member states (known as
‘intra-community’ trade) is driven by the EU Customs Union and the European Single
Market.
The EU Customs Union ensures that any non-member wishing to sell their product
inside the EU faces the same tariff regardless of which member state it arrives in. By
setting up a common external tariff, duties are also removed for trade within the EU’s
Customs Union. The Single Market has driven harmonised or equivalent regulation,
generally meaning that goods meet a common EU-wide standard regardless of the
country or region they come from. Because of this, goods that are produced and can be
legally sold in one member state are trusted by all others and do not need additional
checks as they cross borders. This trust is reinforced by the oversight of EU-wide
regulatory agencies and the European Court of Justice.
With the Customs Union ensuring that goods moving within the EU do not face tariffs
and the Single Market removing ‘non-tariff’ barriers, trade can pass freely between
member states. This level of integration means that trade between member states is
not even classified as imports and exports; it is called arrivals and dispatches. It is not
seen as international trade, but ‘intra-community’ trade.
Import1:process
Figure from non-EU
Import process countries
from non-EU (‘third(‘third
countries countries’)
countries’)
* Source:
EORI = Institute
Economic forOperator Registration
Government analysis and Identification.
Source: Institute for Government analysis
Underpinning the EU’s approach to trade is a common ‘customs code’. The UCC is the
framework regulation through which customs co-operation between EU member states
is achieved. It defines the process and formalities – import–export procedures, data
requirements and common risk criteria – that must take place when goods move
between EU member states and third countries.
In 2016, £382bn of goods were traded between the UK and the EU as either arrivals or
dispatches with minimal or no customs. In contrast, £393bn of UK goods were traded
with the rest of the world as imports and exports and were subject to customs checks
and controls like those shown in Figure 1.8
Dover is a key artery for UK trade heading to continental Europe (see Figure 2). Since
the Single Market was created in 1993, it has seen an increase of 150% in the number
of lorries using its routes, with over 2.5 million heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) now
passing through the port every year. Goods worth £119bn passed through the port in
2015, representing around 17% of the UK’s entire trade in goods by value.9 To
facilitate this growth, the port has added new berths, bigger boats and more frequent
services, but the area where traffic is processed has remained the same, with no
additional capacity for customs checks.10
Annual lorry traffic and EU share of trade for selected major
Figure 2: Annual
UK ports lorry traffic and EU share of trade for selected major UK ports
in 2015
in 2015
75–100
100,000
London Dover
12,783 2,564,994
10,000
Southampton
No lorries
Channel Tunnel
1,641,638
Non-EU 99%
1m 2m 3m 4m 5m 6m 7m 8m
Broadly speaking, there are two types of trade: bulk goods (including coal, natural gas
Source: Department for Transport: Maritime and Shipping Statistics
and things like lumber and cement) and unitary. Bulk goods are typically transported in
specialised ships, and often require specialised facilities to store and handle them,
such as silos, pressure vessels or tanks. In contrast, unitary trade refers to goods
transported within a generic unit, such as a lorry, trailer or a shipping container. This
includes everything from fresh fish and medicines, to smartphones and screws.
Non-EU unitary trade is done almost exclusively through containers (see Figure 3).
These arrive on big ships that are often at sea for weeks. Once unloaded, these
containers sit at ports such as Southampton for a period of time until the importer
takes them inland; it could be minutes, days or weeks. Customs processing can be done
while the containers are at sea, authorities can plan what is arriving and when, and,
with containers already sitting around waiting to be collected, there is already ‘dwell
time’ during which authorities can carry out checks. Ports managing container trade are
large and have storage capacity on site for containers awaiting checks or onward
shipping.
It is a different story for ‘arrivals and dispatches’ – the UK’s trade with the EU. This
relies overwhelmingly on a continuous movement of lorries carried by ferries or trains
across the English Channel or the Irish Sea. This type of trade, where the goods remain
on the back of the lorry and are driven on to a ferry or the Channel Tunnel, is called
‘Roll-on, Roll-off’ (RoRo). There are more lorry movements between the UK and EU
through major ports each year than there are container shipments to or from the rest of
the world, and these lorries only account for 45% of all (non-bulk) trade with the EU;
trailers that are dropped off and picked up the other side by another haulier account
for a further 24% (see Figure 3).11
A lorry driver arriving at Dover or the Channel Tunnel en route to France will stop only
briefly to show passports and boarding information, and on arrival can be on the
French motorway in minutes. These crossings are designed for intra-community trade:
they rely on fast-moving flows and as little ‘dwell time’ as possible. Less than 1% of
lorries arriving in the UK through Dover or the Channel Tunnel require customs checks,
The other major trade route between the UK and the EU is in Ireland. There is a
continuous daily flow of lorries across the Irish land border, which has over 200
crossing points with no customs controls. Similarly, RoRo traffic across the Irish Sea
between Dublin and Holyhead carries a significant proportion of all the goods moving
between the UK and Ireland. As with Dover and the Channel Tunnel, the port at
Holyhead has shed most of its customs capacity since 1993, while also seeing
increases in traffic volumes.
The Irish land border has unique complications, which we will be exploring in a later
paper. But the most-affected ports of entry in the UK are the ports of Dover and
Holyhead, and the Channel Tunnel terminal at Folkestone.
There are a number of key EU-wide systems that support customs authorities across
the EU. From tracking goods and sharing information to providing common approaches
and mechanisms, operations at the EU’s external border are shaped by these systems.
But the UK also has its own ICT infrastructure, critical to the running of the border
system. The backbone of the UK’s ICT is a system called Customs Handling of Import
and Export Freight (CHIEF), which is responsible for managing import and export
declarations. CHIEF is in the process of being replaced by a new system, Customs
Declaration Services (CDS), which was designed to meet the EU’s new customs
requirements in the UCC. But even after this change, there will be a complex web of
systems beyond CHIEF and CDS, with specialist functions and interfaces right across
government and the private sector.
There are now 36 organisations involved in either customs operations or policy (see
Figure 4). This constellation of government agencies is important for ensuring that
there is regulatory compliance at the border, that there are vets for checking any
animals, that there are specialists checking plant products or meat and even that there
is a role for those who can assess fine art or diamonds. It also includes local
HMRC
National Crime
Intellectual National
BEIS Property
Office
Measurement
Office
Policy owners
Government
FCO Diamond
Office
Operations
Operational policy
Atomic
MoD Weapons
Establishment
Policy owners and operations
DH Healthcare
Regulatory
No specific responsibility
Agency
DflD
In addition to these organisations there are
agencies within the devolved administrations
with the same or similar responsibilites for the
DIT
border, such as Marine Maritime Scotland
HMT
Other government organisations with roles at the border
While government is one piece of the customs puzzle, an exporter or importer needs
to work with a number of private sector organisations to get their goods to or from
other countries (see Figure 5). Freight forwarders, hauliers, customs handlers, customs
clearance agents, community system providers, port operators, ferry companies and
others all play important roles in the movement of goods between countries.
Government departments
Exporter and agencies1
Private sector
Government
Customs
CHIEF/CDS
broker²
Flow of goods
Interactions
Freight
forwarder3
Community
system Warehouse,
providers4 HMRC, Border
temporary storage
Force and other
or specialist
government
customs facility
departments and
(e.g. a border
agencies6
Port operator inspection post)5
or authority
1.Source:
Government departments and agencies fulfil many customs-related roles away from the border, both operational
Institute for Government analysis
and policy-related. These include setting and enforcing regulations, inspecting factories and farms, issuing
licences, registering businesses and conducting risk assessments for different products.
2. Customs brokers handle export declarations on behalf of firms. They relay information to government IT systems
such as HMRC’s CHIEF/CDS for a fee.
3. Freight forwarders are logistics firms that handle the transportation of goods for some or all of their journey. They
may also provide services similar to a customs broker.
4. Community system providers are specialist firms that record and track the movement of goods within ports. Their
work is supervised by Border Force, which has ultimate responsibility for security and the control of freight as it
crosses the border.
5. Goods may require temporary storage or longer-term warehousing, or may be diverted to a specialist facility, such
as a border inspection post for food products.
6. There are 13 government departments and agencies that have operational roles at the border, either checking
goods – which may involve contracting private specialists such as vets to perform inspections – or in roles relating
to security, logistics or revenue collection.
Within the UK, private enterprise provides many customs services and owns much of
the major infrastructure, such as ports (see Figure 5). The UK has a system of fully
privatised ports.14 These differ from other port models in the fact that the Government
has no ownership of the port infrastructure. This can make it more difficult for the
Government to control the development of these ports. The ports and all the other
private sector organisations are set up to facilitate trade and help importers and
exporters to meet the current rules and regulations governing international trade.
These private firms are central to the successful delivery of customs.
The Government has put forward two options for future customs arrangements, one
that attempts to minimise friction and another that attempts to remove it altogether.
The first option, ‘a highly streamlined customs arrangement’, would use ‘tried and
trusted’ processes along with international precedents to try to deliver a border that is
light touch, but it would still be a step change in customs administration for goods
coming from/going to the EU. The second option, a more speculative ‘customs
partnership’, proposes having no UK–EU border while allowing the UK to leave the
Single Market and strike free trade deals. As the Government notes, this would be
‘unprecedented as an approach and could be challenging to implement’.17
But the future of the UK–EU border depends as much on the position of the EU27 as it
does the UK Government. The European Parliament’s lead co-ordinator on Brexit, Guy
Verhofstadt, has referred to the proposal for no border as ‘a fantasy’ and the European
Commission has restated Michel Barnier’s position that ‘frictionless trade is not
possible outside the Single Market and EU Customs Union’.18
Ultimately, an agreement will need to be negotiated by the EU and the UK and the
detail of the deal they strike will determine the customs arrangements, and level of
friction, for future trade between them.
The Government’s position paper offers an indication of its thinking,19 but it does not
offer any certainty. The paper also does not cover the UK’s position on key parts of the
deal that will be critical in determining how the UK border looks after Brexit.
Trading relationships tend to focus on four key objectives, which help to reduce checks
at the border:
Any ‘deep and comprehensive’ free trade agreement would look to make significant
progress against all four of these pillars. However, the Government’s position paper on
future customs arrangements focuses on the third and fourth objectives almost
exclusively.20
A free trade agreement is not the only route to minimising friction: there are other, less
ambitious, agreements that can reduce checks required at the border. For example,
bilateral agreements, such as on customs co-operation, focus on improving alignment
between two countries in specific areas that affect friction at the border. That could
mean sharing data and information between authorities, or it could mean recognising
that product standards in a certain good are equivalent in each country and so checks
at the border can be reduced.
Almost all of the EU’s major trading partners – Canada, Japan, South Korea and the
United States – have some form of agreement that aims to facilitate trade in customs
and increase security co-operation. However, the different agreements between the EU
and its major trading partners reduce but do not remove friction. Any UK deal starts
from a point of no friction and looks to limit the introduction of checks and border
activity. This is unlike any other deal the EU has negotiated with a third country.
Nonetheless, there are the same key elements of any deal that will determine how
smoothly customs operates post Brexit. For a list of specific examples, see Appendix A.
It is important to keep tariffs low, but most friction comes from other
forms of trade barriers
Both the major political parties in the UK have stressed that they think it is important to
ensure that trade continues tariff-free after Brexit. In her Lancaster House speech,
Theresa May emphasised that any deal the Government sought would include “tariff-
free trade with Europe”, while Jeremy Corbyn has repeatedly stated that what Labour
wants is “tariff-free trade access to the European market”.21, 22 Tariffs would impose a
significant burden on importers and exporters as well as requiring significant new
capacity at the border. And customs would need to check that duties have been paid
correctly for the good being transported. But tariffs can be more straightforward to
reduce or eliminate than other causes of friction.
Information sharing is the key enabler of modern customs. The UK currently benefits
from access to more than 20 EU systems, which do everything from tracking the
movements of goods and vehicles to storing risk profiles for goods and producers from
around the world, and the UK shares its own data as part of this. Our customs systems,
such as CHIEF and CDS, are designed to operate with ready access to these data. A deal
could see the UK granted permission to continue to use at least some of the critical
systems. No deal, on the other hand, could require the UK to build and integrate new
systems, populating them with data from scratch.
But removing tariffs and aligning customs systems are not sufficient to deliver
frictionless trade. Customs is as much about regulation as it is about tariffs, computers
and paperwork.
There are key parts of the deal relating to regulation that will
determine what customs will look like after Brexit
Converging regulations and product standards for goods has led to simpler customs
across the EU. This process builds trust that goods from member states are either
compliant with the rules of the Single Market or equivalent to domestic products and
so require no special scrutiny.
Customs exists to ensure that any differences between imported goods and domestic
standards do not introduce risk to the market or supply chain. Broadly speaking, the
greater the variance in two countries’ standards and regulations, the more checks that
take place on goods being traded.
Agreements often try to remove barriers to trade by aligning regulatory regimes. They
can do this if parties agree to share equivalent standards, or acknowledge that the
relevant authorities in each nation can conduct approved checks, ensuring that
standards are being met and allowing customs authorities to waive certain checks at
the border. But formal agreement is essential. If one country’s regulations mirror
another’s in practice, but there is no formal and binding agreement, the benefits of
alignment cannot be realised. Their goods receive no preferential treatment at the
border. If the UK and EU diverge on standards after Brexit, friction at the border will be
introduced; the greater the divergence the greater the potential for friction.
The Government’s paper on future customs arrangements does not cover regulation
and its potential as a source of friction. Its position paper on Northern Ireland and
Ireland24 does recognise the challenge of regulation specific to the land border,
particularly in ‘agri-food’, but the issue is not unique to Ireland. The agreement reached
between the UK and EU on the issue of regulation will have a big impact on customs
checks all over the country, particularly in areas such as agriculture.
The rules on agri-food currently applied in the UK mean that between 20% and 50%
of shipments of beef and lamb imported from outside the EU must be checked by a
food health agency at the border. However, the UK is also a party to agreements such
as the one between the EU and New Zealand, which exempts most checks. The EU–NZ
deal only requires 2% of lamb shipments to be sampled at random. Which shipments
After Brexit, the default position on how many shipments from the EU, of any type of
goods, will require checks is undefined. This is particularly important for agri-food,
which represents a significant fraction of all trade by volume, and tends to require
more checks than other forms of goods. Currently 70% of the UK’s food imports by
value come from the EU and are not subject to checks. In the absence of a deal the UK
could unilaterally continue allowing EU goods to enter the UK without regulatory
checks, on the basis of trust. To do so is within the UK’s gift as an independent nation.
This may be the favoured approach as any arrangement which sees an increase in
checks will place substantial new burdens on the UK’s border operations. In particular,
shipments of agri-food which require a Border Inspection Post for checks and – unlike
most other goods – cannot generally be cleared inland due to the risks of spreading
pests and diseases while in transit.
There are similar issues for other goods. Deals that limit regulatory divergence require
smaller shifts in practices and infrastructure. The further apart the UK places itself, or
the less it agrees to share or co-operate with the EU’s existing trade frameworks, the
more customs capacity we will need to develop.
‘No deal’ represents the most extreme change in the shortest time, so it
needs to be planned for
Leaving the EU with ‘no deal’ would introduce friction that is greater than that faced by
any of the EU’s other major trading partners. For UK customs, it would involve the
greatest amount of change in the least amount of time, with a huge increase in demand
on capacity and capability at the border. New systems, staff and infrastructure would
need to be in place for 29 March 2019.
Without an agreement between the UK and the EU, if a lorry needs checks it would
‘have to wait while each separate pallet is checked, requiring extensive investment in
parking facilities at UK ports… or UK port towns’.28 The scale of change for trade
through Dover, Holyhead and the Channel Tunnel would be significant. The ports,
If Dover, Holyhead and the Channel Tunnel were to ‘grind to a halt’, the impacts would
be felt across the UK. For the Channel Tunnel alone, the economic footprint extends
across the whole country. For example, 20% of all exports (by value) from the West
Midlands – including £2.2bn of iron, steel and metal products – passed through the
Channel Tunnel in 2015.30 Businesses in every region of the UK trade via this route;
even Scotland saw 5% of its exports (by value) shipped through the tunnel.
In a ‘no deal’ scenario the UK would have some flexibility but cannot
just do what it wants…
Even outside the EU, the UK’s ability to unilaterally control its borders with respect to
trade is constrained. The Government has committed to being a ‘strong supporter of
the rules-based global trading system’.31 As a result, though there is scope for flexibility
to unilaterally apply a lighter-touch regime, the UK would be unable to liberalise its
borders for EU imports completely.
First, under World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, unless the UK is prepared to drop
tariffs for all imports, it will have to collect duties on EU imports.32 As the House of
Lords’ Trade in Goods report notes, collecting tariffs would ‘require customs posts and
inspections, where currently there are none’.33
Second, as a member of treaty organisations such as the WTO and as a signatory of the
TBT (Technical Barriers to Trade) and SPS (Sanitary and Phytosanitary) agreements, the
UK would be bound by the principle of non-discrimination when it comes to applying
regulatory checks. The SPS agreement prohibits the application of different
requirements where ‘the same or similar conditions prevail, unless there is sufficient
scientific justification for doing so’.34 The UK could plausibly argue that if there is no
increase in risk to the public there is no justification for significantly increasing checks.
It would be down to other third countries to submit challenges to the WTO if they
wished to dispute this.
In the short term, it would be in the UK’s gift to decide whether to introduce regulatory
checks for EU imports. But the EU’s own rules would not allow similar lenience to be
applied to exports from the UK into the EU. That asymmetry may be politically difficult.
Moreover, even though the UK could decide not to conduct regulatory checks for EU
goods, it would still have to have a means of distinguishing EU goods from non-EU.
Since we would no longer be part of EU systems, there would need to be a way to
check the origin of goods.* Consequently customs clearance would be required for all
EU traffic.
* If we maintained the EU’s VAT central clearing process then the invoice could be the proof of origin – no other
paperwork would be required. However, under no deal we would cease to be a part of the EU’s VAT regime – see
Appendix A.
What happens on the EU side of the border matters too, and the UK
would have no say on that
The EU cannot unilaterally revoke its obligations to secure its borders without
contravening its own laws and those of international treaties, so in the event of the UK
leaving the EU with no deal, UK exporters would likely face burdensome checks when
goods entered the EU.
In June 2015, more than 7,000 lorries were parked on the M20 in Kent, unable to pass
through Dover. Businesses lost £21 million (m) worth of stock and the Kent economy
lost £1.5m a day. These delays were a result of a strike on the French side of the
border. Preventing disruption requires both sides of the border to be prepared for
changes and facilitate movement. The UK is therefore reliant on its European partners
to avoid chaos at the border.
This news will be welcomed by many outside government. Both the Confederation of
British Industry (CBI) and the Institute of Directors have called for clarity and certainty,
and the CBI has called for a transition that ‘replicates as much of the economic
relationship [as] is in place at the moment’.37, 38
To achieve this, the Government has suggested that it would retain a ‘close association
with the EU Customs Union’,40 which could include the formation of a new customs
union for a time-limited period. The UK’s relationship with the Single Market, Common
Agricultural Policy and Common Fisheries Policy will also be a key factor in the level of
friction at the border. As we have shown in the previous section, customs arrangements
are as much about regulation and standards as they are about tariffs, computers and
paperwork.
The only ‘off-the-shelf’ transitional model capable of delivering the continuity wanted
in Westminster looks very similar to applying all of the rules and submitting to the
constraints of EU membership but leaving the political institutions, or, as the EU has
called it, a ‘time-limited prolongation of Union acquis’.41
Reports have suggested that there is not yet a consistent position in the Cabinet on
how long any transition might be, but the position paper on future customs
arrangements states that it ‘needs further consideration and will be linked to the speed
at which the implementation of new arrangements could take place’.42 The European
Parliament has passed a resolution that says that any transitional period should last no
more than three years.43
Until there is agreement on transition, there will be continued uncertainty, not only
about what is required for customs post Brexit but also about when it will be required.
The next chapter considers some of the challenges facing the Government as it looks
to undertake the task of implementing its post-Brexit customs arrangements.
It is not clear what customs will look like after Brexit, or when any
changes will need to be made. The Government must be clear on the
scenarios it is preparing for
As we have set out in previous chapters, the future UK–EU relationship will determine
the level of ‘friction’ at the border for goods being imported and exported between the
two. Customs processes on each side will depend on exactly how ‘deep and
comprehensive’ any deal is.
But customs is a cliff-edge issue and, without a transition period, any changes will need
to be in place for day one of Brexit. Agreeing a transitional deal, or ‘implementation
period’, does not in itself delay the need for change, however. Any type of transition
that does not preserve the status quo will require adaptation.
The uncertainty surrounding the detail of the deal and transitional period creates a
challenge for the Government. It must clearly identify the possible outcomes it is
working towards and the extent to which it will prepare for them.
But regardless of the future relationship with the EU, Brexit means that
the UK will need its own ‘customs code’. It should copy the Union
Customs Code
At the moment, what happens to goods as they arrive at the UK border is determined
by the UCC.44 The UCC is a set of regulations outlining the rules and procedures for
customs authorities throughout the EU. It tells them how to treat goods that arrive from
outside of the EU, the formalities of checks and documents required. With no customs
deal, all exporters would need to complete both a Single Administrative Document
(SAD) and an Entry Summary Declaration (ENS), with additional specialist
documentation required for highly regulated goods, transport permits and insurance
certificates.45 The SAD alone consists of 54 boxes with eight parts, which must be
completed and submitted for every declaration.46
Leaving the EU gives the UK freedom to develop its own customs code in order to
monitor and manage the flow of goods in and out of the country. It will be free to set
import–export procedures, data requirements, risk criteria and standards. The question
for HMRC is whether it should use this freedom to diverge from the existing code.
The UCC came into force in May 2016, with a four-and-a-half-year phased
implementation running until the end of 2020. It is the basis of the current UK customs
system and it set the requirements on which HMRC’s new ICT system, the CDS, has
been developed. The UCC has received some criticism in the UK for the lack of
business engagement in its design and the introduction of financial guarantees that are
From inception to implementation, the UK has been a supporter of the UCC and sees it
as meeting its needs and ambitions.49 There is little to suggest that we would benefit
significantly from using Brexit as an opportunity to design something substantially
different. In fact, there is a strong incentive to prevent divergence – synchronising the
UK’s and EU’s customs administrations would create the best basis for minimising
friction in trade and support trusted traders. However, for these benefits to be realised,
the future relationship will need to include mutual recognition between the EU and UK
customs codes. The National Audit Office has said that if the UK diverges from the UCC,
the new ICT system being delivered in HMRC will no longer be consistent with UK
customs policy, and preparedness for day one will be at risk as a result.50
The Government has suggested that continuity in customs is one of its priorities, and
should ensure that it replicates the UCC rather than looking to diverge at this point.51
But, before a new code can be put in place, regardless of how similar it is to the UCC,
Parliament must pass critical legislation to give ministers the powers that, under EU
membership, currently sit in Brussels.
The Government has already announced a customs bill in the Queen’s Speech to give it
the necessary powers.53 As with other Brexit legislation, this bill is likely to prove
controversial, but if the legislation fails to pass there will be a legal hiatus on the day
after exit from the EU. Any customs provisions in the withdrawal or future relationship
agreements will also require ratification in the UK and the EU.
To smooth the passage of the bill, the Government must engage Parliament early and
offer clear and detailed information about its intention for the legislation. The white
paper on customs that is promised for the autumn, along with early engagement
highlighting the critical nature of the legislation, could reduce the likelihood of a legal
hiatus at the end of the Article 50 period. Both ministers and Parliament must be clear
that customs legislation is essential in avoiding a cliff edge. They must work closely to
prevent potential disruption.
2. HMRC needs to publish a detailed white paper on its proposals for customs
before introducing legislation and ensure that Parliament is well informed about
its plans for customs policy and legislation.
Technology
This section looks at the essential ICT work under way to prepare for day one and the
viability of ‘new technology’ as a solution to Brexit border problems. It also highlights
the importance of continued access to key EU systems.
Work on CDS began later in 2013, with its design and functionality based largely on
the UCC. The UCC supports greater use of technology in areas such as ‘self-
declarations’. A new ICT system was needed, because HMRC’s CHIEF system is not
capable of meeting the new EU standards.
But delivery of CDS is now facing ‘significant issues’. It received an ‘Amber/Red’ rating
from the Infrastructure and Projects Authority in January 2017, and a rating of ‘Amber’
in July. Andrew Tyrie, chair of the Treasury Select Committee at the time, said that
confidence in the project had collapsed, and a recent National Audit Office report
shows the extent of the risks and issues being faced by the programme.57 Due to
deliver in January 2019, just a few months before the Article 50 period ends, any delay
to the project would have a significant impact on the UK’s preparedness for day one
Delays are not uncommon in major government ICT projects. But CDS contingency
plans are not yet in place, and are expected to rely almost solely on CHIEF, which will
be a 30-year-old system managing an estimated fivefold increase in volume. HMRC is
planning a technical upgrade to CHIEF to ‘increase stability and capability’, but the
unsuccessful 2010–12 upgrade programme shows that even this is likely to be a
challenge.58
If CHIEF cannot cope with the volume, and the current CHIEF fallback measures are put
in place, ports of entry will largely come to a stop. Fallback measures would mean that
only a small subset of goods will be processed by customs authorities, such as ‘life or
death consignments’, perishables and live animals. But even those that can pass
through the border would need to navigate a paper-based customs system without any
of the modern advances or technological support.
But, introducing changes in scope increases delivery risk. With delivery of CDS already
in doubt, and its rapid deterioration to an ‘Amber/Red’ rating from the Infrastructure
and Projects Authority just months after the Brexit vote likely to be a result of huge
changes in capacity requirements, the Government must avoid making further changes.
The most recent ‘Amber’ rating shows improvement, but the programme is unlikely to
withstand further changes to requirements.
Operators of the web of private sector systems that interface with government will also
need to adapt to any changes. These private sector organisations are designing their
systems to be compatible with CDS. If the Government decides to tinker, it needs to
give those organisations the information and time to reflect on the changes. With
around 8,700 users and intermediaries affected by the system,59 one small change by
government could mean that thousands of these users and intermediaries need to
make changes in order to accommodate it.
The priority now is a CDS programme that is operational for day one. The design of the
system should be ‘locked down’, preventing any change that could impact overall
delivery and any change that is non-essential to day-one operations. The rest of the
customs landscape will need to adapt to what is deliverable with the ICT, rather than
expecting the ICT to quickly adapt to suit the needs of the wider customs landscape.
There is potential for new ICT. Sensors, scanners and using data to target interventions
and manage risk are all used in some customs systems around the world and are likely
to become increasingly important to modern customs. But in the short term, they are
not a viable solution to the Brexit border question.
The design and delivery of such technology on this scale and of this importance are
likely to warrant inclusion in the Government Major Projects Portfolio (GMPP), which is
‘composed of the largest, most innovative and highest risk projects and programmes in
government’. Recent GMPP ICT projects have a duration of, on average, five and a half
years from start to finish.62 By the time the UK formally leaves the EU in March 2019, it
would have only had two years and nine months to design, build and implement any
new technology.
Major ICT projects, in government and the private sector, are risky. One in four of the
ICT projects in the GMPP are rated either ‘Red’ or ‘Amber/Red’ (‘Red’ means that
successful delivery appears unachievable, with major issues that do not appear to be
manageable or resolvable; ‘Amber/Red’ means that successful delivery is in doubt, with
major risks or issues apparent and urgent action required). This high level of risk
contributes to the extension of delivery timelines. Based on the current batch of GMPP
ICT projects, every year they have spent in the portfolio has seen their expected
delivery date delayed by 186 days.
Our work on Universal Credit shows the danger of unrealistic timelines and unclear
requirements to major project delivery;63 and both the Public Accounts Committee and
the National Audit Office have reports containing similar lessons. In the Brexit context,
these dangers are simply the reality of the constraints on government.
An innovative new ICT programme in this environment is very unlikely to deliver what
is needed, when it is needed. The Government should not rely on undefined modern
technology to solve its knottiest problems.64
Of these 57 systems, it is expected that 25 will require changes in order to prepare for
exit from the EU65 – systems that, for example, hold the information for non-EU traders,
support trusted traders, carry out risk profiling and quality assurance, or track goods as
they move between countries.
Updating these systems will be a big task in and of itself, adding to the ICT delivery ask
for HMRC, which, it should also be said, is also delivering Making Tax Digital, one of
government’s flagship digital transformation programmes, and experiencing issues of
its own.
Limiting the burden on an already stretched programme of ICT changes required for
exit from the EU should be a priority for the Government. Access to the EU’s customs
systems, through customs co-operation, should be a key objective in the negotiations.
For some systems, there is a precedent that suggests the UK should be able to gain
access.
Not all EU customs systems can be accessed by non-member states. For some, a
situation where the UK could continue to use them would be unique – although not
necessarily unachievable. Contingency work is being undertaken for these systems,
whether it is through commercially available alternatives or simply planning
operations on the basis that the UK loses access.
Recommendations – technology
1. HMRC needs to prioritise delivery of Customs Declaration Services (CDS) in
its current form, ensuring that the basics are delivered before adding new
functionality.
2. Ministers must recognise that ‘innovative, new ICT’ is not a viable option in
the short term and focus on upgrading existing systems to cope with Brexit.
3. The Department for Exiting the European Union should prioritise continued
access to EU customs systems during the negotiations and throughout any
time-limited transition, in particular the EU’s New Computerised Transit
System (NCTS).
Customs infrastructure
This section covers the constraints that limit the potential for expanding customs
infrastructure and the possibilities for shifting the emphasis of customs activity away
from the border.
For example, Kent County Council is already working on an M20 lorry park, being
developed as part of ‘Operation Stack’ (see the later section ‘A canyon, not a cliff edge’),
and it will take nine months to complete once building begins. But, like any
infrastructure project, there is a long planning and approvals process before ground is
broken, with proposals for the lorry park dating back to 2015. Even now, construction is
on hold after a judicial review.
Major changes at ports will also take time. The Port of Dunkirk, in 2014, outlined a
four-year strategic plan worth €250m that would expand harbour and customs
capacity at the port. It included a new border inspection post, which look 11 months to
build, cost €2m and increased capacity for checks from 1,000 to 5,000 consignments
per year.67 This was followed by a new car terminal, which opened in March 2016 after
over a year of construction at a cost of €14.9m.68 A new 3,000 square-metre logistics
warehouse opened in July 2016, costing €1.5m.69 For UK ports looking to make
changes that are significantly greater but without the clarity on exactly what will be
required, these timescales and costs show that March 2019 is a milestone that looks
unachievable for major change.
The Port of Calais is undergoing an even more ambitious expansion. The ‘Calais 2015’
project was designed and developed between 2009 and 2014, with phases of public
debate and inquiry, planning and tendering.70 Aiming to increase capacity, improve
transport links and add storage capacity, the expansion plan has a total cost of
€862.5m, of which €662.3m will be spent on the actual building works, which
commenced in the final quarter of 2015. Works are not due to complete until at least
mid-2021.71
The Ports of Dunkirk and Calais are functionally very similar to Dover, and in both cases
the timeframes for their expansions are measured in years; whereas the time until
Brexit is measured in months.
At the ports facing the greatest immediate impacts, there is very limited room to
expand. They are optimised for the current arrangements and are not able to rapidly
scale up their customs capacity by orders of magnitude.
The Port of Dover is pinned against the cliffs with access through the town; the only
direction to expand to is into the sea. The ongoing revival of Dover’s Western Docks is
adding space for an expanded container terminal and warehouse space by reclaiming
land. This project was proposed in 2007 and is not due to complete until 2020. What
space is being added has already been earmarked for use, and there is no new capacity
for customs. Customs facilities that existed prior to 1993 have been demolished or
repurposed, and even if the reclaimed land were turned over to customs operations it
Likewise, the Port of Holyhead is enclosed within the town, which is backed up against
mountains. While Folkestone is surrounded by fields, the terminus itself has no spare
room to add capacity and so any expansion would require purchases of private land.
Another option would be to use inland clearance depots away from the ports
themselves. For many goods the physical border can be separated from where customs
clearance is actually done. Vital to this would be the use of transit procedures – in
particular Common Transit – which allow goods to travel across EU borders without
being stopped. Any additional advances in transit procedures for road freight which
allow clearance to be done for goods en route to the UK, as is already common in
container shipping, would further ease the demand placed on the physical border.
For example, if a Turkish haulier passes through Bulgaria, even though the crossing into
the EU is there, with a transit declaration submitted on the NCTS system it can travel
through all the states of the EU without paying any duty or being stopped. The
consignment is tracked at each significant crossing point until it reaches the UK. Once
in the UK it is cleared at some inland facility, such as Stop24 on the M20.
One downside to this is that large guarantees would have to be provided by traders for
every shipment if all exports had to use this system. Nevertheless, it does mean that
the bottlenecks caused by UK imports at entry points could at least be alleviated in
principle.
In addition, there is still the issue of other compliance checks. It has been suggested
that such depots could operate as ‘single window’ points where inspectors for multiple
agencies (for example, revenue collection, veterinary health, trade standards) can
perform any necessary checks.72 A step further would be to allow for shared clearance
depots where customs authorities from both sides of the border could conduct
juxtaposed checks for both regimes at either side of the border.
* Pre-clearance for imports, exports and transit is provided for in the Union Customs Code, which allows declarations up
to 30 days prior to shipment (see Noordijk A, no date, Union Customs Code (UCC): The new face of EU customs
procedures, Damco, p. 9, www.damco.com/en/~/media/9f1edb7a46e5479b81d0c49642af4eb2).
The Government has already suggested that it would look to use the EU’s trusted trader
scheme called the Authorised Economic Operator (AEO) scheme – or a new UK-based
equivalent – to reduce actual documentary requirements at the border.73 These
schemes are well-defined concepts within the World Customs Organization’s (WCO)
framework of standards and create a ready basis for building trust around products to
help reduce checks. It would allow certified trustworthy UK traders to benefit from
streamlined processes – including minimised documentary requirements, fewer
physical inspections and faster clearance times – and enable customs authorities to
concentrate on higher-risk traders. The big value in this is that it reduces the
guarantees needed to utilise NCTS.
However, the current EU accreditation process takes months to complete and involves
close scrutiny of financial records and supply chains. The UK would need to maintain
similar requirements as the EU to enable mutual recognition, but that may mean that
the system is too burdensome for some SMEs. We were told that the accreditation
process for AEO status can take around six months for businesses, meaning that clear
guidance is required early to ensure that traders are ready to make the most of the
scheme.74
All of these potential mitigations require co-operation and agreement with European
counterparts. This can only be achieved with shared trust and a broad preservation of
convergence in customs regulations and controls.* Yet even with such an agreement,
the Government must recognise that there is neither the time nor the space to simply
expand the infrastructure capacity, and even if there was there are further questions
about how expanded facilities would be staffed. A meaningful transition period will
offer all those involved the time to make the necessary adjustments – such as building
new facilities, hiring and training new staff, connecting the expanded capacity into
existing infrastructure and allowing businesses to qualify for AEO status.
Outside the EU, all parts of this jigsaw will need to adapt and implement the relevant
changes. For example, under any UK–EU free trade agreement which changes the
customs requirements for agri-food, Defra alone could face transformation in several
of its major public bodies. These include the Animal and Plant Health Agency, the
Forestry Commission, Rural Payments and the Environment Agency.
The Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA) has 2,300 staff based around the UK to
enforce EU regulation and policy. At the moment, it has inspection posts at over 20
points of entry into England and Wales and it issues over 12,000 export certificates
and inspects quarantine-licenced premises.75 APHA’s focus is both EU and non-EU
trade, but the burden of checks on non-EU trade is significantly greater than for EU
trade. In 2013, 70% of the UK’s imports of food, feed and drink by value came from the
EU, and similarly 61% of the UK’s exports of the same went to the EU. Applying
increase checks to highly-regulated agricultural goods could have a dramatic effect on
the volume of work for bodies like APHA.76
Local government could also face new demands as a result of Brexit and changes to
customs, port health authorities in particular. These authorities are responsible for
carrying out many of the checks on food as it enters the UK and, while they do
currently look at some specialised or high-risk EU goods, checks on non-EU imports are
more thorough. They can range from simply checking documents against their
databases to physical inspection – opening packaging and smelling or tasting the item.
In some instances, the goods need to be tested in a laboratory before they can be
cleared to leave the port. Any increase in checks will have a big impact not only on UK
industry and supply chains, but also on local government – whether it is officials or
vets required to do more checks or the space for testing to take place.
Customs is, as we have argued above, about both trade facilitation and security.
Facilitation of trade, allowing movement of goods to be as free as possible, generates
revenue for the Exchequer and supports UK industry, while security ensures that
safeguards are in place to prevent illegal practices and protect consumers and the
environment.
In the UK, HMRC is responsible for facilitation whereas the Home Office, through
Border Force, prioritises security. Other major trading nations, such as Canada and New
The UK, like the Netherlands, is known for prioritising facilitation over security. As a
result, we were told,77 it is seen as having less rigorous checks for third-country trade
than many other EU members.
A new cross-government working group – the Border Planning Group – has recently
been set up, chaired by Jon Thompson, HMRC Chief Executive and Permanent
Secretary, which includes representation from Border Force, Defra, the Department for
Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), the Home Office, the Treasury and
others.
The group has much-needed heft behind it, with a new Director-General Border
Planning appointed in July 2017 with significant experience in operational delivery.
This role will be critical to ensuring that the board is able to be decisive and drive the
agenda, with analytical resources and clout to ensure that the group’s decisions are
translated into action. The Director-General Border Planning will also be critical for
co-ordinating change and ensuring ‘operational readiness’ at the border on day one.
The formation of the Border Planning Group is regarded as a positive and important
step in Whitehall. The group is seen as an opportunity to improve communication and
co-ordination, facilitating a cross-government conversation on the detailed
administrative implications of policy options, where preparations have previously
suffered from a lack of clarity and information. It focuses accountability, with a single
decision-making body. The group is too new to be judged a success, and it no doubt
faces some significant challenges, but its creation is a constructive move that is
welcomed by those involved in preparations for post-Brexit customs.
But some external organisations have found that government’s understanding of the
customs process has been patchy on occasions. In certain parts of government,
important experience has been lost over the past five years and newer members of
staff have had to manage a steep learning curve as a result of Brexit. Private sector
organisations involved in customs report of having to brief civil servants on certain
parts of the process, to build up knowledge.
Some churn is inevitable but, for customs and Brexit preparations, government is more
vulnerable to the negative effects. With very little additional resources made available
to date, limited time within which to deliver and high technical understanding
required, stability and retention are critical. Government must look to build resilience
into its staffing model wherever possible.
To start, vacancies need to be filled. As of 27 June 2017, the CDS delivery programme
was carrying around 50 vacancies, with four required immediately to prevent adverse
effects to delivery.79 Government must prioritise filling these gaps, as failure to have
customs prepared for day one could cause significant disruption.
Since then, staff numbers have risen. Civil servants have been hired and drafted in to
key Brexit departments such as Defra and the Department for Exiting the European
Union. But these increases in staff numbers have largely been in Whitehall, boosting
the civil service’s capacity to undertake analysis, policy and legislation.
Adapting the UK’s border to ensure that it is ready for exiting the EU will need a
significant increase in frontline staff as well, all around the country. Government has
recognised the challenges it faces, along with those faced by SMEs, in recruiting and
training new staff to provide the necessary capacity at the border.80
Border Force is, we were told, already hiring some additional staff to give it a bit of
flexibility. But this is not enough to be ready for ‘no deal’. If government is going to be
prepared for a hard exit in March 2019, the big decision points for staffing are
imminent. It takes time to hire and just training new recruits would take a year or so.
This training is even longer for specialists. If the UK is required to undertake checks on
animal produce coming from the EU, it will need an increase in the number of vets.
There could be a need for an increase in experts available to test chemicals or plants as
well. It may not be possible to find and train all of these new specialists in time.
Preparing business
This section looks at how the Government should work with the extensive private
sector interests in customs to ensure that issues are addressed and there is sufficient
preparation and capacity for customs on day one. It covers two types of private sector
organisations: the businesses that play an active role in the customs landscape; and
traders.
Government is just one part of the picture – the private sector plays a
critical role in the process
The customs landscape in government is a complex picture, but that intricate image
with numerous moving parts is mirrored in the private sector.
From leaving the exporter to arriving with the importer, a good is likely to pass
through the hands of as many private sector organisations as it does government
departments or agencies. Private sector organisations own UK ports and airports,
operate them, transport the goods, handle the customs processing and manage
logistics (see Figure 5).
Any change made to the customs process by government will need to be reflected in
the private sector, whether it is new ICT, increased documentation or greater capacity
and related infrastructure. Successful day-one implementation is as much about these
private sector organisations that support UK border operations as it is about
government; effective engagement is critical.
But, in the past, government has struggled to effectively engage these organisations.
The National Audit Office has said that e-Borders, the failed Home Office ICT
programme, suffered from ‘underestimating the importance of stakeholder
management’ and focusing on delivery timelines to the detriment of engagement.81
Previous Institute for Government research has shown the importance of detailed
engagement. During Automatic Pension Enrolment, government relied too much on its
engagement with trade associations. The lack of engagement with employers meant
that regulations needed to change mid-course, rather than being more effectively
designed at the start.82
But engagement is not enough on its own. Government needs to recognise that for
these private sector organisations to be ready, they will need time to adapt.
These private sector organisations will also need time to adapt their
processes to support the new customs requirements…
Some of these private sector organisations will need to adapt their ICT systems to
interface with new government systems, and port operators might need to find space
for inspections to take place and they may need to build new warehouses or hire and
train staff to manage a huge surge in activity.
For example, customs clearance agents based in the south-east of England currently
manage non-EU trade coming through Dover and the Channel Tunnel. This makes up
about 1% of total trade through the Channel ports. To scale these organisations up to
the point where they have the capacity to manage 100% of trade would require new
systems, staff and infrastructure. For organisations that currently employ around 20
people, a hundredfold increase in work would be completely incompatible with their
current business model.
These private sector organisations are usually given a period of years to adapt to
changes once government has implemented them. For changes introduced in the
Union Customs Code (UCC), plans were agreed in 2013, introduced in 2016, and
government and business were given until 2020 until they needed to be compliant.83
Organisations therefore had a four-year period to prepare. When the UK implemented
the Import Control System, introducing Entry Summary Declarations (ENSs) in what is a
relatively straightforward change compared with Brexit, organisations were given 18
months to adapt once the UK Government had finished work on the system.84 With
formal withdrawal from the EU in March 2019, organisations have got less than 20
months to prepare for an outcome that is not yet agreed.
In its position paper on future customs arrangements and position paper on Northern
Ireland and Ireland, the Government has acknowledged the challenges for businesses
associated with transition. It has placed an emphasis on negotiating a single-step
transition so that organisations need only change their practices once. Additionally,
although this transition would be ‘time limited’ its length would be ‘linked to the speed
at which the implementation of new arrangements can take place’.85
Ultimately there is a need for certainty. At the moment, there is little clarity about when
these organisations can expect a decision to be made and whether they will be given
the time to prepare once it has been made. We have been told that some have received
so little information that they do not anticipate having to make wholesale change by
March 2019; they now believe that there is just not enough time.86
This lack of certainty extends to money, and who will pay for major upgrades. Some
businesses wonder whether they can expect support from government to finance such
large, expensive changes in the challenging timelines. But government will be reticent,
providing what could be seen as subsidies to certain private sector providers and
offering them a competitive advantage. Either way, clarity is required quickly and there
may need to be legislation to force private sector organisations to start making the
changes needed and incurring the costs in doing so.
Then there are importers and exporters, who face a major step change
in administration
So far this chapter has focused on organisations that are involved in the logistics and
operations of customs. But British businesses looking to import from or export to the
EU face a step change in administrative requirements, and they need to be prepared to
make it.
After exit from the EU, there will be 180,000 traders, from individuals and micro-
businesses to large organisations across different industries, who will need to make
customs declarations for the first time. Preparing these organisations to use a process
they are unaccustomed to is a huge task. They will need to navigate new technology
and provide detailed information, as well as potentially requiring new certification
from a range of public bodies.
Every trader looking to export to the EU could end up needing to complete a Single
Administrative Document (SAD) and an Entry Summary (ENS). As we stated earlier, the
SAD consists of eight parts with 54 boxes which must be completed and submitted for
every declaration.87 Along with numerous other documents such as insurance
certificates and specialist documents, this represents a significant additional burden to
businesses.
Without clarity on what customs will look like after Brexit, businesses cannot plan the
transition they need to make.
The Government does not yet have a plan for how it will switch traders to making
declarations through CDS once it is in place, nor does it know how to ensure that the
180,000 traders, making declarations for the first time, are aware of what is required of
them on day one.88 These plans for transition are critical, guiding organisations through
substantial change to ensure that they are ready to avoid a cliff edge.
Business needs to prepare itself to cope with the additional costs of the
new customs regime
In our recent paper, Frictionless Trade, we highlighted the potential disruption and cost
to supply chains as a result of a change in our relationship with the EU.90 Each option
for securing frictionless trade after Brexit, from continued Single Market membership
to a free trade agreement, introduces some element of cost to the supply chain.
Whether it is from tariffs or the introduction of ‘rules of origin’, which the Government
has previously estimated could cost firms 4–15% of the cost of the good, there are a
number of drivers for increased costs.91
The need for customs declarations alone could cost business billions. We were told
that a customs declaration is likely to cost a trader in the region of £20 to £45 per
declaration.92 With an additional 200 million declarations expected after Brexit, the
cost to business could be in the region of £4bn to £9bn.
Traders are also charged for checks. A physical examination of goods from port health
authorities can cost a trader anywhere between £106 and £600 per container,
depending on the test requirements.93 For some goods, this means being transported
to specific locations to be tested, which adds an extra £30 every two containers.94 For
those that then enter storage in order for checks to take place, rent can be charged.
The scale and cost of change for many traders could be significant. Government must
engage with them in detail about changes, understanding their requirements and
giving them as much time to adapt as possible. Preparedness for exit from the EU
depends as much on these groups of external stakeholders as it does the Government.
Government must be clear about the options and contingencies, offering as much
certainty as possible. Businesses, from customs handlers to exporters, must be given
the necessary information to allow them to plan effectively.
2. The Government must publish detailed plans and scenarios for day one as
soon as possible. Businesses need to be given enough information and time
to prepare.
The UK has no say over how its exports are treated. Only a trade deal can change this.
The default EU position, which we would experience under ‘no deal’, is one where UK
goods would face extensive barriers to trade, in addition to high tariffs. Even with a
comprehensive trade deal in place, Belgium, France, Ireland and the Netherlands will
need to implement changes to their customs systems to process UK imports.
The issue is potentially most acute for Ireland. In addition to more than 200 points
where roads cross the land border into Northern Ireland, there is a significant amount
of trade across the Irish Sea. While ports such as Dublin and Holyhead may be
unprepared and unable to expand their customs capacity at short notice, the question
of how to handle goods crossing the land border is more pressing.
At the moment, the border is essentially non-existent. Free movement of goods has
enabled the integration of supply chains, ranging from drinks to car parts. If the EU
requires strict controls on UK goods, Ireland will be legally obliged to comply, with
potentially significant consequences. The Government’s position paper on the border
between Ireland and Northern Ireland set out its ambition to negotiate an arrangement
where no hard borders are required,95 but again this is a matter for negotiation and
agreement with the EU27.
The risk of disruption from the other side of the Channel is significant
The Ports of Calais, Coquelles and Dunkirk are the counterparts of Dover and
Folkestone; these ports share an exclusive trade flow of around four million lorries per
year by ferry and the Channel Tunnel. The challenge faced by Dover and Folkestone to
supply customs will be replicated in kind in these French ports.
Depending on the scope of the Brexit deal, this could mean extensive new
infrastructure, a significant workplace expansion and hundreds of millions of euros
being spent. Insufficient time to make changes, and the associated legal and
procedural requirements, are just as urgent in France as they are in the UK. The Ports of
Calais and Dunkirk are both in the process of multi-year upgrades costing almost €1bn
combined. While both projects will add some new customs capacity, they were
initiated well before the EU referendum and are scaled to the organic growth in trade
and customs requirements anticipated while the UK remained a member of the EU. It
would be complicated and costly to change the scope of these projects midway
through.
There is a limited amount of ferry capacity and what exists is scaled to support an
uninterrupted flow of lorries. If the ferries – or the Channel Tunnel transporters –
cannot unload, whether it is because of a strike or bad weather or because the port is
full of lorries waiting for checks, then those same ferries will not be able to whisk away
with the lorries waiting to depart. This would result in tailbacks both in France and up
the M20 as lorries waiting to embark are held up. In this sense, the customs issue is not
just a cliff-edge issue, but a canyon.
Currently, the only remedy for this scenario is ‘Operation Stack’, an emergency plan
that exists to reroute traffic around Kent in the case of delays. This procedure is based
on a set of emergency powers, which allow the police to control the movements of
lorries. While this can hold up over short periods, it was never designed to be the
default state. The events of June 2015 tested the limits of Operation Stack and cost the
UK dearly. Giving evidence to the Transport Select Committee, Natalie Chapman, a
Head of Policy at the Freight Transport Association, argued that every day of disruption
caused a loss to the UK economy of up to £250m, using an estimate provided by the
Port of Dover.96
What is notable is that every recent instance of Operation Stack has been due to issues
on the French side of the border. A lack of customs capacity at that border would
represent a new category of issue, which would have similar impacts on the Kent ports
and their surroundings but would not have any immediate hope for resolution, unlike
inclement weather or a temporary strike.
While trade is integrated most tightly across the Straights of Dover, and the Irish
border, there will be similar impacts on ports in other neighbouring countries. Ports in
Belgium and the Netherlands are already beginning to prepare for the impact of Brexit
on their staffing requirements and infrastructure. We were told that the Port of
Rotterdam may need to hire up to 800 more staff to handle the new customs work for
UK trade after Brexit.97
There are some notable asymmetries in the cross-Channel flow of goods. While
UK-bound goods come from many nations or sources, EU-bound lorries are
overwhelmingly full of UK-made products. Similarly, the flow of value is unbalanced,
and the UK receives more in trade than it sends across the Channel.
The Home Office currently has a working group with its French counterparts, but a
similar cross-Channel group including the transport teams for the councils of Kent and
Pas-de-Calais was paused some years ago, with no immediate plans to reconvene.
Solving this issue will require careful diplomacy as it is a complex combination of
bilateral relationships between the UK and its immediate neighbours that depends on
a higher-level multilateral consensus between the UK and the wider EU27.
Data protection
Data adequacy The EU’s General Data Protection Regulation regulates how personal
information is shared between countries. The expansive definition of
‘personal data’ used by the EU covers elements of what is shared between
customs authorities. EU-based organisations can only share data with third
countries that meet the same standards and are deemed ‘data adequate’.98
Access to this data allows HMRC to employ intelligence-led controls at the
border, and checks that are targeted using smart risk analysis. It also enables
the UK to share information with other EU member states about dangerous
goods, novel risks and criminal activities such as smuggling.99
ICT systems
New Computerised The NCTS allows traders to submit transit declarations and proofs of
Transit System guarantee (bond money). Consignments can be tracked as they travel across
member states. The NCTS enables paperless customs clearance, which in turn
(NCTS)
reduces the costs of customs and delays at the EU border.100
Customs Information The CIS is a single centralised source of EU-wide customs information, which
System (CIS) is used to investigate and prosecute against breaches of customs and
agricultural rules. It also enables data exchanges on goods moving between
the EU’s customs territory and third countries.101
Excise Movement The EMCS monitors the movement of excise goods – such as alcohol, tobacco
and Control System and energy products – that have yet to have their duties paid. This
information helps member states to co-operate by sharing this information.102
(EMCS)
Trade Control and TRACES is an EU-wide online tool that helps to control the import and export
Export System of live animals and animal products. It provides the mandatory veterinary and
sanitary certificates that any consignment of these goods requires.103
(TRACES)
European Union EUROPHYT is an online surveillance and warning system that helps to protect
Notification System the EU against the introduction of new pests and diseases affecting plants. It
tracks interceptions of dangerous imports, maintains a database of threats
for Plant Health
and shares alerts of new risks and dangerous consignments with member
Interceptions
state customs authorities.104
(EUROPHYT)
Rapid Alert System The RASFF allows rapid and efficient information sharing about food and feed
for Food and Feed safety between customs authorities. This can lead to product recalls and
other forms of risk-based control.105
(RASFF)
Registered Exporter The REX database lists the organisations that are entitled to certify the origin
(REX) system of their own goods, in line with the preferential tariff rates that the EU grants
to goods from certain countries. This relates to rules of origin.106
Regulation
Mutual recognition Agreements involving mutual recognition of conformity inspection allow
of conformity national regulators and other assessment bodies to check that goods comply
with the standards and regulations of another nation and have that
inspection
assessment trusted by the trade partner. This allows many checks and tests to
be done once, away from the border. These goods are essentially pre-cleared
before they arrive at the other country as imports, enabling trade to flow
more easily. However, a document check is still required at the border to
prove that the tests have been completed.
Equivalence Agreeing equivalence for a category of goods means that if it can be lawfully
sold in one market, it can be lawfully sold in another. Where equivalence has
been agreed between two customs territories, goods can be traded freely
without (or with severely reduced) document checks and other inspections.
DH Department of Health
HMT HM Treasury
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50. National Audit Office (2017) The Customs Declaration Service, National Audit Office, p. 16.
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59. Ibid.
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106. European Commission (no date) ‘The Registered Exporter system (the REX system)’,
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arrangements-list/generalised-system-preferences/the_register_exporter_system_en
Marcus Shepheard is a researcher at the Institute for Government, working in the Brexit
team, principally on customs and public bodies.
Alex Stojanovic is a researcher at the Institute for Government, working in the Brexit
team, principally on customs and trade policy. He has previously worked for the
Department of Culture, Media and Sport on the National Citizen Service Programme.
Acknowledgements
This paper would not have been possible without those who agreed to contribute or be
interviewed as part of the process. We are unable to name many of those we spoke to,
but would like to thank Andrew Grainger, Richard North and Rob Hardy.
As always, thanks go to colleagues at the Institute for Government – Jill Rutter, Matthew
Batchelor, Bronwen Maddox, Nicole Valentinuzzi, Harry Cutbill, Euan McCarthy and Rob
Adam – for their comments and publication support. Any errors or omissions are those
of the authors.
September 2017
© Institute for Government 2017
The Institute for Government is a registered charity in England and Wales (No.1123926) with cross-party
governance. Our main funder is the Gatsby Charitable Foundation, one of the Sainsbury Family Charitable Trusts.