Forensic Investigation

At approximately 8:00 pm on July 24, 2018, Ima Blind was driving west on W. College

Avenue, just west of downtown State College. Ima Blind swerved into oncoming traffic, causing

a chain reaction accident. She claims that the sun was at such an angle in the sky that she was

temporarily unable to see the road. Her insurance company, Allstate, has contacted forensic

meteorologists Jacob Hair and Sarah Stengel to report on the weather conditions and position of

the sun at the time of the accident.

Our team has gathered reliable data to arrive at the closest approximation to what the

weather conditions were at the time of the accident. The first data source is found in figure 1.

This is a chart of the time the sun rises and sets for State College in July of 2018. On July 24,

2018, the sunset was at 8:36 pm, meaning that at 8:00 pm, the sun would have still been visible

and at a low angle in the sky. This allows for the possibility of the sun's rays to impact the

visibility of Ima Blind if there were no objects obstructing her view (e.g. clouds, buildings, trees,

etc.).

Knowing that the sun was up at the time of the accident, our team needed to figure out

where the sun was positioned in the sky relative to the location of Ima Blind. The report did not

give an exact location of where the accident occured, therefore we had to approximate what “just

west of downtown State College, PA” meant. In figure 2, our team concluded that a reasonable

approximated distance was roughly 900 meters or 0.6 miles west of downtown State College. At

the intersection of W. College Avenue and S. Barnard Street is the location at which our team

will use as an example to present our findings of how the sun angle impacted Ima Blind.

Figure 3 presents an approximation of the angle at which the sun was relative to the

location of Ima Blind. The figure displays three lines extending from a point. The point on the

map is the approximate location of Ima blind. The yellow line extending to the right of the point
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towards State College, is the position in the sky that the sun rises. This is of no concern to the

investigation. It is the remaining two lines that present relevant information. The red line that is

pointing to the left of the point and is further up on the circle compared to the orange line, is the

position in the sky at which the sun sets. Finally, the orange line is the line that represents the

position of the sun in the sky at 8:00 pm on July 24, 2018. As you can see on the map that is

beneath the overlaid sun angles, if one were driving west (to the left on the map) on W. College

Avenue, then the sun would be roughly 70 - 80 degrees to the right of your view. In other words,

the sun would be shining through the right side of the windshield or through the passenger's

window.

To get a better understanding of what this scenario would look like, our team used

Google Earth, figure 4, to get a street view of what Ima blind might be observing as she was

driving on W. College Avenue. This is not the day of the event. Therefore, the weather conditions

that you see in the picture are not necessarily what happened on the day of the accident. This

picture is simply an example of what the area looks like and how the sun position would appear.

This is the exact location that the point on figure 3 is showing. If we were to use the same

approximate position of the sun, we would see that the sun would be to the far right of the image.

This means that Ima Blind would not have experienced direct sunlight in front of her, rather it

would have been to the right of her.

Additionally, assuming that no clouds were in the sky, the area has trees and buildings

that has the strong possibility of blocking the sun’s rays simply because the sun would have been

low in the sky, as it was near the time of sunset.

Now that we know the approximate location and angle of the sun, we now want to turn

our attention to investigating whether or not the sun was being blocked by clouds in the sky.
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Figure 5 is a radar image at the time the accident was reported. There were scattered showers in

the vicinity of the location, particularly north and northwest of the point of concern. West

northwest is the same direction at which the sun sets. Thus, the storms have the possibility of

blocking the sun. Figure 6 confirms that the National Weather Service observed the presence of

rainfall because the radar was in precipitation mode, designated by the red bars at the last 00:00

and the first 00:00 on the 24th and 25th respectively. This was the time of the accident.

Additionally, figures 7 and 8 are local reports of the conditions on the ground at the time

of the accident. Figure 7 is an Aviation Routine Weather Report that is taken at the State College

Airport. According to figure 9, the airport is 7,040 meters or 4.4 miles to the north northeast of

the point of concern. The report shows that at 8:00 pm, moderate rain was observed. In addition,

broken clouds were seen in the sky, meaning that 60 - 85% of the sky had cloud cover.

Figure 8 presents a weather report from a Cooperative Observing Site located 570 meters

or 0.35 miles to the north northwest of the point of concern as seen in figure 10. The observing

site recorded at 8:00 pm that rain was falling. Therefore, both weather reports recorded that

precipitation was occurring, thus clouds were in the area.

Of course, there are potential errors in the sources and the methodology that our team

used, but these errors are minimal and do not drastically impact the outcome of our decision. The

main error that arises when analyzing the scenario is the exact location of where the accident

occured. Our team had to approximate the location, therefore our data is based from the spot we

chose. However, the specific point is only impacted by non-meteorological factors, for example

the sun being blocked by buildings and trees. The meteorological factors, for example cloud

cover, sun position and angle, and precipitation, covers a large area that small differences in
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distances will not impact the view to the sun. Thus, the meteorological factors that are presented

are valid for the location of concern.

Additionally, figure 3, showing the approximate angle and position of the sun in the sky,

is experimental data. Therefore, the exact position could be off by a few degrees, but using

deductive reasoning of where the sun sets during this time of the year, the position appears to be

valid. The main conclusion is that the sun was not directly in front of Ima Blind, but to the side,

regardless if the product is off by a few degrees of position.

Lastly, the 25 percentage point range in cloud coverage given by the Aviation Report

could give some uncertainty as to how much the sky was covered with clouds. If the sky was

60% covered with clouds, there would be a larger possibility that the sun was visible than if the

sky was 85% covered with clouds. This is an example of where visible satellite imagery would

be useful to see exactly where these clouds appeared during the time of the accident.

Unfortunately, this product is not available.

The team has concluded that this was the most probable scenario that occurred during the

time of the accident. We believe that as Ima Blind was driving out of State College on W.

College Avenue, the sun was to the right of her. Because of clouds being reported in the sky and

storms were towards the northwest, there is a high possibility that the direct rays from the sun

were being blocked. Additionally, due to the low sun angle of the sun as it sets, it is unlikely that

if the sun were to be seen, it would be able to shine directly onto the car of Ima Blind because of

the buildings and trees in the area. However, it is important to note that it was raining at the time

and reports show that it rained 1.33 inches during the day. Thus, standing water is most likely on

the road, giving the possibility that light from the sun could be reflected into the vision of Ima
Forensic Investigation

Blind. This is the only scenario that can be thought of for when her vision could be impaired, but

the sun could not be obstructed by any clouds, trees, or buildings for this to occur.

In conclusion, the likely scenario of Ima Blind having her vision impared by the sun is

unlikely due to the factors discussed previously.

Data

Figure 1: Time of sunset and sunrise in July, 2018.

Figure 2: Distance from downtown State College to the point of interest.

Figure 3: Approximation of position of sun in the sky. Yellow line is sunrise, red line is sunset,
and orange line is the current position of the sun on the day of interest.
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Figure 4: Google Earth image of the location of interest.

Figure 5: Radar image at the time the accident was reported.

Figure 6: Times showing when the radar was in precipitation mode and clear air mode. The time
of the event is the second 00:00 on the 24th and the first 00:00 on the 25th.

Figure 7: Aviation Routine Weather Report taken at the State College Airport.
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Figure 8: Cooperative Meteorological data taken at University Park, PA.

Figure 9: Map showing the distance from the State College Airport to the location of concern.

Figure 10: Map showing the distance from the Cooperative observing site to the location of
concern.
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Works Cited
Agafonkin, Vladimir. “SunCalc.” January 01, 2018. http://suncalc.net/
CalcMaps. “Map Distance Calculator.” 2015. https://www.calcmaps.com/map-distance/
Edwards Apps Inc. “Sunrise Sunset Calendars.” https://www.sunrisesunset.com/
Google. “Google Earth.” https://earth.google.com/
Iowa State University. “Iowa Environmental Mesonet.” 2001. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/
National Centers for Environmental Information. “COOP.” https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/coop/coop.html
National Centers for Environmental Information. “NEXRAD Data Archive, Inventory and Access.”
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv
National Centers for Environmental Information. “Radar Mosaic.” https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv