Emerging Trends

(and capturing them for business advantage)

Thor Madsen
Executive Partner
Gartner Executive Programs

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 "The future is
already here, it's just not
evenly distributed."
— William Gibson Photo: Midnightzulu
Why Innovate?
Innovation Necessity

"The greatest benefits of globalization will accrue

to countries and groups that can access and
innovations
adopt new technologies."
U.S. National Intelligence Council

"The teams of human plus machine dominated

even the strongest computers. Human strategic
guidance combined with the tactical acuity of a
computer was overwhelming."
Gary Kasparov on Advanced Chess
 Business and Management Trends

Ranking of business priorities CIOs selected as one of

Business Expectations their top five priorities in 2010 and projected for 2013

Ranking 2010 2009 2008 2007 2013

Improving business processes 1 1 1 1 2
Reducing enterprise costs 2 2 5 2 8
Increasing the use of information/analytics 3 5 8 7 5
Improving enterprise workforce effectiveness 4 3 6 4 7
Attracting and retaining new customers 5 4 2 3 3
Creating new products or services (innovation) 6 8 3 10 1
Managing change initiatives 7 6 12 * 12
Targeting customers and markets more effectively 8 7 9 * 9
Consolidating business operations 9 11 13 * 16
Expanding current customer relationships 10 9 7 * 10
Supporting regulation, reporting and compliance 11 12 14 13 15
Creating new sources of competitive advantage 12 13 11 8 4
Expanding into new markets and geographies 13 10 4 * 6
* New Question
 How to Innovate
(Exploit/Harvest
Emerging Trends)?
"Innovation has nothing to do with how many R&D
dollars you have. When Apple came up with the
Mac, IBM was spending at least 100 times more on
R&D. It's not about money. It's about the people
you have, how you're led, and how much you get
it.”
Photo: mac-history.net
— Steve Jobs
Intentional Innovation:
The STREET Model

Innovation
Scope Candidates Evangelize

Track Rank Evaluate Transfer

"Anything that won't sell, I don't want to invent. Its

sale is proof of utility, and utility is success.”
— Thomas Edison
 Capability
Expectations
Track
Hype Cycle

Time
 Articles using the term 'business model'
80000
Foreign
AmazonNews Direct
stock Investment
price,
References for 1998 In China
toModel"
"Business 2005
70000
150 Hype Cycle
100
60000

50
50000
millions

40000

30000

Source: Yahoo
Source:
20000
1998 2000 2002 2004
10000
Source: Factiva.
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
 Hype Cycle for
Emerging Technologies, 2010
3D Flat-Panel TVs and Displays
expectations 4G Standard
Wireless Power Activity Streams
Media Tablet
Cloud Computing
Augmented Reality
Cloud/Web Platforms
Private Cloud Computing
Internet TV
Speech-to-Speech Translation
3D Printing Gesture Recognition
Social Analytics
Mesh Networks: Sensor
Mobile Robots
Pen-Centric Tablet PCs
Video Search Microblogging
Autonomous Vehicles Electronic Paper
Speech Recognition
Extreme Transaction Processing E-Book Readers Location-Aware Applications
Tangible User Interfaces Video Telepresence Predictive Analytics
Interactive TV
Internet Micropayment Systems
Terahertz Waves
Computer-Brain Interface Biometric Authentication Methods
Broadband Over Power Lines
Context Delivery Architecture Mobile Application Stores
Virtual Assistants
Human Augmentation Idea Management
Consumer-Generated Media
Public Virtual Worlds
As of August 2010
Peak of
Technology Trough of Plateau of
Inflated Slope of Enlightenment
Trigger Disillusionment Productivity
Expectations
time
Years to mainstream adoption: obsolete
less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years before plateau

From "Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2010" (G00205757)

Three Types of IT Innovation Drive
Business and IT Success

Management
IT innovates its
management
processes within the
IT organization

Product Process
Introduction of new Introduction of radically
or significantly redesigned or improved
improved products processes
and services
Business and Management Trends:
Strategic Business Capabilities

Sensor & Smart Grid

Optimization Business Technology- Technology-
Process powered SBC related SBC
E-Discovery Management
Design Thinking
Collaboration
BI & Performance
Management E-Service
Sustainability Usage-Metered
Management E-Commerce
Cloud Revenue Models
Business Process
Innovation Outsourcing
Digital Management
Fabrication Remote
M-commerce Workforce CRM
Mobile
Service Algorithmic Six Sigma
Robotics Enterprise Pricing & Trading
2.0 (Social)
Supply Chain Management
Neuro-
economics Microfinance Location Intelligence
Mass Product Cost
Customization & Life Cycle Management
GRC/ Risk Traceability
Management & Provenance
Innovation Peak of Inflated Trough of Slope of Plateau of Mature
Trigger Expectations Disillusionment Enlightenment Productivity Plateau
 What are the
Key Emerging Trends?
“I ACTUALLY think most people don’t want
Google to answer their questions. They
want Google to tell them what they should
be doing next.”

— Eric Schmidt, CEO Google Photo: Stephen Shankland/CNET

Cloud Computing: The Choices Expand
A style of computing in which
scalable and elastic IT-enabled
capabilities are delivered as a
service to external customers
using Internet technologies.
Social Software: The Next Stages of the
Web 2.0 Journey
• Beyond "being part of the
conversation:"
- Understanding patterns of
influence
- Social media analytics and
insight

• Crowdsourcing and
collective Intelligence
- Open innovation and ideation
- Innovation marketplaces
- Task completion
- Ratings, reputation and trust
Megatrend: The Inexorable March of
Consumerization
Data
• Activity streams
• Real-time monitoring
Applications
• App stores
• Platforms and end-user AD tools
Community, Content and Knowledge
• Photos, video, opinions, reviews, social networking
• Peer production (e.g., Wikipedia), answers, diagnosis
Computing
• Mobiles, tablets, e-books and pads
• Games machines, personal supercomputers
Collaboration and Productivity Tools
• E-mail and instant messaging
• Collaborative apps

2000 2005 2010 2015

Rise of the Media Tablets
Features
Uses
• Consumption platform with
appropriate performance • Mapping
• Easily accessible focused • E-learning
set of applications
• Schematics
• Simple usage model (no
training needed) • Digital signage

• Ubiquitous connectivity • Status reviews

• Flexible, multifunctional • Reference library
• Attractive industrial design • Interactive brochures
• Instant on, with long battery • Video storage/playback
life • Video chat and conferencing
Delivers clear value and is readily accessible.
Predictive Analytics: New Sources, New
Insights
Information Products and Services
Relevance Location
Topic Quality
Source ƒ Passive data capture: Owner
Quality sensors, cameras Status
ƒ New data sources of
massive scale
ƒ Automated discovery
of new attributes
ƒ Perfect recall, privacy
Places and transparency People
Quality Mood
Navigation Location
Who's there Availability
What's around Preferences
 Information in Context:
Augmented Reality and the Intuitive Interface

Source: Wikitude Source: Plantronics Source: Microsoft

• Mobile devices with location information are the

leading edge of augmented reality
• Context-based information at point of
decision/action Source: Vuzix

• Emerging wearable and "glanceable" interfaces

• New display types: flexible, 3-D, projected (off
the desktop and into the world)
Digitizing the Physical World
The “Z” Factor
Source: Microsoft

Source: Sony

Source: NextEngine

Source: MIT

Input Processing Output Future

3D scanners 3D design tools 3D displays Programmable
3D cameras matter
Virtual worlds 3D printers
Gesture control
Digital clay Mobile AR
 Robots and Humans – Living Together
• Traditional applications: telepresence in hostile
environments, autonomous vehicles, cleaning, delivery, toys,
companions, humanoids
• Emerging applications: mobile infrastructure, telepresence,
RFID, warehousing
• R&D in carrying, lifting and rescue:
military, emergency response, home
Source: In-Touch Health
healthcare
Source: Mobile Robots
• Human augmentation: exoskeletons,
walking aids
Source: Kiva Systems

Source: Raytheon/Sarcos
Source: Honda News Release
Your Action Plan
Next Week
- Hunt for shifts in performance, price and ease of use.
Evaluate how emerging trends in social media, cloud, media
tablets and predictive analytics may transform your business
operations and models (and management).
Your Next Three Months
- Follow an innovation and adoption process to avoid hype-
driven, reactive mistakes. Create your own emerging-trend
radar screen to identify where you should be selectively
aggressive to deliver value for your organization.
Your Next 12 Months:
- Ensure that you have an innovation strategy and follow
through on it. Your competitors' focus on innovation and
emerging trends is growing.
Emerging Trends

Thor Madsen
Executive Partner
Gartner Executive Programs

See “Mastering The Hype Cycle: How to Choose the Right Innovation
at the Right Time” by Jackie Fenn and Mark Raskino

Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view.

These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner.
Such approvals must be requested via e-mail: [email protected].
Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
 What's here that we What's here that we're
could be using? not using? Was that a
deliberate decision?
Expectations

Time
Technologies You Can't Afford to Ignore — Tablets Hot
Near Term; Midterm Fabric, Context & UXP Impact Is Big

Top 10 Strategic Technology Top 10 Strategic Technology

Areas for 2010 Areas for 2011
1. Cloud Computing 1. Cloud Computing
2. Advanced Analytics 2. Mobile Applications & Media
Tablets
3. Client Computing
3. Next-Generation Analytics
4. IT for Green
4. Social Analytics
5. Reshaping the Data Center
5. Social Communications &
6. Social Computing Collaboration
7. Security — Activity Monitoring 6. Video
8. Flash Memory 7. Context -Aware Computing
9. Virtualization for Availability 8. Ubiquitous Computing
10. Mobile Applications 9. Storage Class Memory
10. Fabric-Based Infrastructure and
Computers
Modified for 2011 New for 2011
Dropped for 2011