0% found this document useful (0 votes)
26 views15 pages

Forecasting Intelligence: October 2006

Uploaded by

SonyAcer
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
0% found this document useful (0 votes)
26 views15 pages

Forecasting Intelligence: October 2006

Uploaded by

SonyAcer
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 15

Forecasting Intelligence

October 2006

Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.


Rafiki: It doesn't matter, it's in the past.

Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.


Driving Value Through Information

Power of Optimization $ROI


Information
What is the best
Predictive Modeling that could happen ?

Descriptive
Modeling
Ad hoc Reports What will happen ?
& OLAP
Standard
Cleansed Reports Why did it happen ?
Raw
Data
Data
What happened ?

Data Information Knowledge Intelligence

Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.


Why Forecast?
Excite Scare
Drive growth Prevent unnecessary costs
http://www.sas.com/success/mtn.html

Increase margins (revenues) Prevent obsolence


http://www.sas.com/success/alcon.html

Maximize Asset utilization Prevent lost margins/sales


http://www.sas.com/success/awa.html

Lower operational costs/drive operational Prevent mismatching resources to


efficiencies opportunities
http://www.sas.com/success/cartasi.html
Maximize customer experience/value Prevent unprofitable acquisitions
http://www.sas.com/success/miur.html (Customers etc.)

Maximize resource utilization Prevent ineffective service delivery


http://www.sas.com/success/miur.html

Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.


Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Forecasting Intelligence Overview
Define Relationships
Forecast Development
Define Hierarchies
Forecast Deployment Select Data Elements and Scenarios

Performance Management Define Options

Deploy Forecast Estimate Baseline Forecast

Assess Risks Validate Baseline Forecast

Monitor Progress

Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.


•Data Extraction Population
•Data Integration Competition
• Data Validation Business Model Pricing Strategies
• Data Accumulation e.g. Logic Works ERwin
Cluster Analysis Seasonality
• Data Cleaning/Scrubbing
• Data Enrichment

Extract Transform Load


Engine Diagnostics

Model Selection

Business

Metadata
Metadata
Metadata Management
Update

Technical

Forecasting

Evaluation Events
Future Price
Performance
Market Plans

Evaluation
Business Rules
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Forecast Development –
Forecast Studio Demonstration

Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.


Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Events Console

Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.


Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Forecast Deployment Conclusions
Scalable – Ability to perform millions of daily
forecasts
Extremely user-friendly with a smaller user
training curve
Fully Automatic – Process without human
intervention
Automated Diagnostics – Determine which causal
factors (weather and economy affect the demand

Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.


Forecast Deployment Conclusions

Best Method Selection – Select from hundreds


of formula’s to which creates the best forecast.
Interactive Simulations – Scenario modeling
Allows for Hierarchal Forecasting – High and
low level views.
Provides Reconciliation – Middle out, top down,
etc.
Automatic Detection of outliers, calendar
events, missing values, and promotions/events

Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.

You might also like