Chapter 6: Reliability Data Analysis

For enhancement of system reliability, it is necessary to understand the causes of failure.

The specific causes of failure of components or systems may be many; some of them are known
and other unknown due to the complexity of the system and its environment.
A few causes of failure are;
1. Poor design of component or system
2. Wrong manufacturing techniques
3. Complexity of equipment/systems
4. Poor maintenance policies
5. Human errors
Component reliability from test data
Suppose set of N components are under test, after time t, nf (t) fail and ns (t) survive.
The reliability function R(t) is expressed as:

Where nf (t) and ns (t) are counted at a specific time t.

Since nf (t) + ns (t) = N,
The probability of failure at any time t, can be expressed as

Since R(t) and F(t) are mutually exclusive

R (t) + F(t) = 1 (6.3)

Instantaneous failure or hazard rate

The expression for hazard rate is

Reliability Function
 General form of reliability function

 It can be reduced to
Difference between the failure rate and hazard rate
Let us consider that a car travels a distance of 200 km in 4 hours. The average speed turns out to
be 50 km/hr. This average speed is analogous to the failure rate. However the person may have
driven the car sometimes slower and sometimes faster.
The rate at a given instant can be determined by reading the speed indicated on speedometer.
This speed at any instant indicated by speedometer is analogous to hazard rate.
When the probability density function is exponential, and the failure rate is constant, then
equation 6.10 can be expressed as

It means that when the failure rate is constant, the failure rate and hazard rate are equal.
Time dependent hazard rates
The hazard rate of a component can be evaluated from the failure rates using the following
formula;

Example 2
In the life testing of 432 specimens of a particular device, the number of failures during each
time interval of 100 hours is shown in table below. Evaluate the hazard rates.
Time interval in 100 hrs. Failure in the interval
000-100 121
101-200 80
201-300 70
301-400 63
401-500 30
501-600 25
601-700 21
701-800 10
801-900 7
901-1000 5
Constant hazard rate
The constant hazard rate takes the form of, λ = λ (t)
Where λ is a constant and is time dependent. Suppose the component failure time follows
exponential failure law and if the component has constant failure rate, then

To obtain the reliability function

The mean time to failure (MTTF)

The mean time to failure (MTTF) of the item is

 MTTF is the reciprocal of constant hazard rate

Mean time between failures (MTBF)
 It is the average time of satisfactory operation for the system.
 It is the ratio of test time to the total number of failures.
 If f is the number of failures in time interval T, then MTBF is

 Larger the MTBF, higher is the reliability. MTBF is used where the item is repairable.
Mean time to failure (MTTF)
 If n non-repairable components are put to test, and if their failure times are t 1, t2, …. tn, then
mean time to failure (MTTF) is defined as

 MTTF is used where the item is non-repairable, e.g. fuses, resistances etc.
Example 3
A database of failures and the repair times of four similar gas compressors for six months is
maintained. The repair times of these 4 gas compressors is given in table below. Compute MTBF
and MTTR

Solution
Assuming 30.5 days in each month, the total number of hours available for six months is given
Total no of hrs available for 4 compressor = (30.5)(24)(6)(4) = 17,568
The total no hrs required to repair 4 compressors = 1,336.9
Designing for Reliability
The four practical approaches for designing for reliability are:
1. Over design
2. Design simplification
3. Providing redundancy
4. Safe failure
1. Over Design: Means enhancing a design to avoid a particular type of failure.
Example
 If a screw jack designed for light motor vehicles has to withstand a load of 5 tons, it is to be
designed for a load of 7.5 tons. If a part tends to corrode, over designing the part could mean
making the part out of stainless steel to reduce corrosion rather than using mild steel and
providing an electroplated surface that withstands corrosion.
2. Design Simplification
 Means the reduction of the number of interacting parts in a product which will ordinarily
improve system reliability.
 B/c system reliability is the product of the reliability of individual component parts.
3. Providing redundancy
 Involves providing redundant components.
 A component with a low reliability may have a back-up built right into the system.
 If the main component fails, its back-up is automatically substituted.
4. Safe failure
 Component or system should be designed in such a way that whenever fails, it fails without
causing danger or loss.
Risk Assessment
 Every human activity has an unavoidable degree of uncertainty somehow capable of
jeopardizing the achievement of the desired goals.
 Risk is the measure of this uncertainty.
 This definition underlines the probabilistic character of risk as the probability value of the
event: for this purpose it is possible to distinguish between
 “Accepted risk” with 100% probability of occurrence, and
 “Unaccepted risk” having a probability of occurrence lowers than 100%.
 Harm: is a physical injury or damage to health.
 Hazard: is the potential source of harm.
 Risk: the combination of the probability of occurrence of harm, and the severity of that harm
 Elements of Risk
 Risk related to the hazard considered
 is the function of
 Severity of harm
 that can result the hazard and
 Probability of occurrence.
 Exposure of persons to the hazard
 Occurrence of hazardous event
 Possibility of avoiding or limiting the harm
Risk assessment
 It is the science of risks and their likelihood and evaluation.
 It is a systematic and comprehensive methodology to evaluate risks and includes risk analysis
and risk evaluation.
Risk Analysis
 A combination of the specification of the limits of the machine, hazard identification and risk
estimation based on
 the definition of the severity of harm and probability of its occurrence.

Risk Evaluation: a judgment of whatever the risk reduction objectives have been achieved.

Risk assessment and reduction

 It can be achieved by a three steps method

1. Introduce inherently safe design measure
 E.g. substitution of materials with less hazardous materials and application of
ergonomic principles
2. Introduce guards
 physical barriers to provide protection and protective devices;
3. Introduce information for use about the residual risk.
Classification of risk
1. Specific/minor risks
2. Conventional risks
3. Catastrophic risks
Quantification of risk
1. Qualitative
2. Semi-qualitative
3. Quantitative
Protective and Preventive Actions
1. Prevention strategy – aims to reduce P (maintenance plays a fundamental role for the
support of planning, execution, and control activities).
2. Protection strategy – aims to reduce M
3. Mixed strategy - A combination of the previous strategies.