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Objectives

Weather prediction's goal is to give knowledge that people and organizations can use to reduce

weather-related losses and improve societal advantages, such as life and property protection,

public health and safety, and economic prosperity and quality of life.

General objectives

 Develop a dynamic model on the causal relations between the severity and frequency of

extreme events, the functionality of critical sectors and social welfare.

 Detailed assessment of the vulnerable elements and damage costs in transport systems.

 Work out efficient and innovative mechanisms of managing disastrous events, focusing

on maintaining the function of transport systems.

 Identify appropriate and efficient adaptation strategies for transportation infra-structures

and services to ease the impacts of extreme events in the future.

 Clarify the role of governments, companies and industry associations.

 Check the applicability of theoretical concepts of vulnerability assessment, crises

prevention and adaptation strategies with practical experiences and local conditions

 Dissemination of project findings to a wider audience to fostering the debate on the costs

and implications of more frequent and severe weather conditions on transport systems

Data-set selection

The data for this study was gathered directly from metrological departments in order to assess

the inputs and outputs. Average temperature, air pressure, wind speed, wind direction, and

humidity are important inputs, and the output is rainfall for the years to date. The rainy season in

India lasts from November to May, covering seven months of the year. According to the data, the

rainy season in Nicosia begins in September and ends in May, a period of approximately 9

months. As a result, the above-mentioned factors would be used as key inputs in the forecasting

of precipitation for India.

Related background literature

Rainfall forecast is a difficult task, especially when accurate and precise digits are required.

Rainfall forecasting is often used to safeguard agriculture and the production of seasonal fruits

and vegetables, as well as to ensure that their output and quality are maintained in accordance to

the amount of rain required (Lima & Guedes, 2015). Rainfall prediction employs a variety of

networks and algorithms to gather data for distribution to agriculture and production

departments. Rainfall forecasting is vital and mandatory, especially in locations where heavy rain

is expected more frequently (Amoo & Dzwairo, 2016). There are enormous economies, such as

those in Asia, such as India and China, that rely heavily on agriculture for revenue.
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The rainfall forecasting is prevailing as popular research in the scientific areas in the modern

world of technology and innovation; as it has a huge impact on just the human life but the

economies and the living beings as a whole. Rainfall prediction with several Neural Networks

has been analyzed previously and the researchers are still trying hard to achieve the more perfect

and accurate results in the field of rainfall prediction. The prediction of seasonal rainfall on

monthly basis by using the surface data to form annual prediction is also essential for the

agricultural activities and therefore the production and supervision of the agriculture and crops. It

could be done by recognizing the variations in the supply of moisture in the air. The case of

African region illustrates that how this succeeded and how West Africa advantaged from the

rainfall prediction in managing their agricultural activities (Omotosho, Balogun, & Ogunjobi,

2000).

Similarly, short-term rainfall streamflow forecasting is accurate and free of bias. However, they

are ineffective at predicting floods and post-processing rainfall forecasts. In 2013, a method

known as raw numerical weather prediction (NWP) was established, which employed the

Bayesian joint probability model to formulate prediction data. The method created forecast

possibility distributions for each area and had a 7-day prediction time; collaborative forecasts

correlated with place and time were created in Australia's southern region (Khan, Sharma,

Mehrotra, Schepen, & Wang, 2015). This method relied on the Schake shuffle to generate

forecasts based on forecast possibility distributions.

The importance of rainfall forecast for flood prediction is also highlighted, and as a result,

precautionary measures are taken to rescue people from the horrific destruction that a flood can

inflict. There have been studies that show the importance of rainfall prediction in flood
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forecasting in areas where significant rain falls every year. Flood-prone zones are sensitive

places that require rainfall forecasts not just to preserve human lives but also to protect crops,

water supplies, and livestock.

In comparison, the significance of rainfall prediction is also important for areas with high

probability for the drought. The areas with high drought seasons are also vulnerable to high risk

in terms of agriculture and livestock with an extreme threat to human life as a whole; the study

conducted for Sakae River basin of Thailand. The artificial neural network model for rainfall

prediction of 1to 6 hour ahead time is studied for Bangkok, Thailand by Hung, Babel, Weesakul,

and Tripathi in 2008. The study outlined that within artificial neural networks, using six models

utilizing rainfall 9 parameters like humidity, air pressure, wind direction and wind speed can give

more accurate and precise prediction when previous forecasting data is also used with these

parameters as an input as well.

Project workplan

The project work plan is broken down in two work packages for management dissemination and

seven work packages on research:

 WP1: Weather trends and economy-wide impacts

 WP2: Vulnerability of agricultural transport systems

 WP3: Crisis management and emergency strategies

 WP4: Adaptation options and strategies

 Governance, incentives and innovation

 WP6: Case studies

 WP7: Policy conclusions and final conference

References

Lima, P. M., & Guedes, E. B. (2015). Rainfall Prediction for Manaus, Amazons with Artificial

Neural Networks. Computational Intelligence (pp. 1-5). Curitiba, Brazil: IEEE.

Amoo, O. T., & Dzwairo, B. (2016). Trend analysis and artificial neural networks forecasting for

rainfall trends. Environmental Economics, 7(4), 1-10.

Omotosho, J. B., Balogun, A., & Ogunjobi, K. (2000). Predicting monthly and seasonal rainfall,

onset and cessation of the rainy season in west africa using only surface data. International

journal of climatology, 20, 1-16.

Khan, M. Z., Sharma, A., Mehrotra, R., Schepen, A., & Wang, Q. J. (2015). Does improved

SSTA prediction ensure better seasonal rainfall forecasts? Water Resources Research, 51, 1-12.

Fang, L., & Zhongda, L. (2015). Improving Multi-model Ensemble Probabilistic Prediction of

Yangtze River Valley Summer Rainfall. Advances in atmospheric sciences, 32, 1-7.