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Effects of climate change on the distributional potential of three range-

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DOI: 10.1093/condor/duz012

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 AmericanOrnithology.org

Volume XX, 2019, pp. 1–10

DOI: 10.1093/condor/duz012

RESEARCH ARTICLE

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Effects of climate change on the distributional potential of three range-
restricted West African bird species
Benedictus Freeman,*, Julia Sunnarborg, and A. Townsend Peterson

Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, USA

*Corresponding author: [email protected]
Submission Date: October 31, 2018; Editorial Acceptance Date: March 7, 2019; Published 6 May 2019

ABSTRACT
A detailed understanding of species’ responses to global climate change provides an informative baseline for designing
conservation strategies to optimize protection of biodiversity. However, such information is either limited or not avail-
able for many tropical species, making it difficult to incorporate climate change into conservation planning for most
tropical species. Here, we used correlative ecological niche models to assess potential distributional responses of 3 range-
restricted West African birds, Timneh Parrot (Pscittacus erithracus timneh), Ballman’s Malimbe (Malimbus ballmanni), and
White-necked Rockfowl (Picathartes gymnocephalus), to global climate change. We used primary biodiversity occurrence
records for each species obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, eBird, and VertNet; for environmental
data, we used climatic variables for the present and future, the latter characterized by 2 IPCC representative concen-
tration pathways (4.5, 8.5) future emissions scenarios and 27 general circulation models for a 2050 time horizon. We
found broad present-day potential distributions with respect to climate for all 3 species. Future potential distributions for
Ballman’s Malimbe and White-necked Rockfowl tended to be stable and closely similar to their present-day distributions;
by contrast, we found marked climate change–driven potential range loss across the range of Timneh Parrot. Our results
suggest that impacts of climate change on the present distributions of West African birds will in some cases be minimal,
but that individual species may respond differently to future conditions. Thus, to optimize conservation of these species,
and of bird diversity in general, we recommend that regional-to-national species conservation action plans incorporate
climate change adaptation strategies for individual species; ecological niche models could provide an informative base-
line information for this planning and prioritization.
Keywords: African birds, bird distribution, climate change, conservation, ecological niche modeling, Malimbus
ballmanni, Picathartes gymnocephalus, Psittacus erithacus timneh, Psittacus timneh

Effets des changements climatiques sur le potentiel de répartition de trois espèces d’oiseaux d’Afrique de
l’Ouest ayant une aire de répartition restreinte
RÉSUMÉ
Une compréhension détaillée des réponses des espèces aux changements climatiques fournit une base de référence
informative pour concevoir des stratégies de conservation afin d’optimiser la protection de la biodiversité. Cependant,
ces informations sont soit limitées, soit non disponibles pour plusieurs espèces tropicales, rendant difficile d’incorporer
les changements climatiques dans la planification de la conservation pour la plupart des espèces tropicales. Nous
avons utilisé des modèles de niche écologique corrélés pour évaluer les réponses potentielles de répartition face aux
changements climatiques de trois oiseaux d’Afrique de l’Ouest à l’aire de répartition restreinte, soit Pscittacus erithracus
timneh, Malimbus ballmanni et Picathartes gymnocephalus. Pour chaque espèce, nous avons utilisé des mentions de
biodiversité primaire provenant du Système mondial d’informations sur la biodiversité, d’eBird et de VertNet; pour
les données environnementales, nous avons utilisé des variables climatiques actuelles et futures, ces dernières étant
caractérisées par deux profils représentatifs d’évolution de concentration (4.5, 8.5) du GIEC et 27 modèles de circulation
générale jusqu’à l’horizon 2050. Nous avons trouvé de grandes répartitions potentielles actuelles relativement au climat
pour les trois espèces. Les répartitions potentielles futures pour M. ballmanni et P. gymnocephalus avaient tendance à
être stables et très similaires aux répartitions actuelles; au contraire, nous avons constaté une diminution potentielle
marquée de l’aire de répartition de P. erithracus timneh due aux changements climatiques. Nos résultats suggèrent que
les impacts des changements climatiques sur les répartitions actuelles d’oiseaux d’Afrique de l’Ouest seront dans certains
cas minimaux, mais que des espèces pourraient répondre différemment aux conditions futures. Ainsi, afin d’optimiser la
conservation de ces espèces et de la diversité aviaire en général, nous recommandons que les plans d’action régionaux
et nationaux pour la conservation des espèces incluent des stratégies d’adaptation aux changements climatiques pour
des espèces individuelles; les modèles de niche écologique pourraient fournir une base de référence informative pour
cette planification et l’établissement des priorités.

Copyright © American Ornithological Society 2019. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: [email protected].
2  Effects of climate change on range-restricted African birds B. Freeman, J. Sunnarborg, and A. T. Peterson

Mots-clés: changements climatiques, conservation, la distribution des oiseaux, modélisation de la niche écologique,
Malimbus ballmanni, Oiseaux africains, Picathartes gymnocephalus, Psittacus erithacus timneh, Psittacus timneh

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INTRODUCTION selected these species as examples of bird species that are
globally threatened (Endangered or Vulnerable), poorly
Global climate change is a major threat to the survival and known, range-restricted endemics, and likely highly sus-
persistence of biodiversity (Thomas et al. 2004, Pimm et al. ceptible to habitat loss and climate change (IUCN 2018).
2014, BirdLife International 2018, Díaz et al. 2018). For ex- Our aim was to characterize climate change impacts
ample, a recent report by the Intergovernmental Science- on each species at regional-to-local scales to inform fu-
Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services ture research and integrative conservation planning and
projected that by 2100 Africa will lose more than half of decision-making (Hannah et al. 2002, Guisan et al. 2013).
its bird and mammal species, primarily as a consequence Like most regions in Africa, future climate change pro-
of effects of global climate change and habitat loss (IPBES jections for West Africa anticipate temperature increases
2018). Likewise, the BirdLife International report on the with high confidence, but are more equivocal with rainfall
status of world birds anticipated alarming impacts of global (Buontempo et al. 2015, Janes and Hartley 2015): different
climate change on many species (BirdLife International projections indicate significant increases or decreases in
2018). future rainfall, with little consensus among models (Janes
Climate change is not only affecting species’ distribu- and Hartley 2015).
tions but also is impacting their populations (Bellard et al.
2012, Stephens et  al. 2016). As such, understanding im-
METHODS
pacts of climate change on individual species is cardinal in
integrative conservation planning for biodiversity (Lovejoy Input Data
and Hannah 2018). However, this information is lacking We obtained primary biodiversity occurrence records for
for many species, particularly in tropical regions (Harris the 3 range-restricted and globally threatened birds from
et al. 2011, Şekercioğlu et al. 2012). In Europe and North the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF; https://
America, for example, impacts of climate change on some www.gbif.org), eBird (https://ebird.org), and VertNet
species are well documented, at least among birds and (http://vertnet.org). Timneh Parrot is an endangered
mammals (Hannah et al. 2002, Stephens et al. 2016, Pacifici subspecies of Grey Parrot endemic to the Upper Guinea
et al. 2017, BirdLife International 2018). forest (IUCN 2018), sometimes elevated to Psittacus
In the tropics, however, studies attempting to assess timneh (Melo and O’Ryan 2007). Grey Parrots are experi-
species’ responses to climate change are minimal and encing rapid population declines owing to a combination
usually available only at coarse resolutions, despite high of habitat loss and heavy trapping for the international
vulnerability of tropical species to global climate change pet trade (CITES 2013, BirdLife International 2018, IUCN
(Malcolm et al. 2006, Harris et al. 2011, Şekercioğlu et al. 2018, Martin 2018). They inhabit primary and secondary
2012, Pacifici et al. 2017). For instance, in a review of 136 moist lowland forest, moving out of drier areas during the
scientific articles assessing impacts of climate change on dry season (del Hoyo et al. 1997, Gatter 1997). The parrots
mammals and birds, 54% were about taxa in Europe and roost in large trees near villages and water, feeding mainly
38% about taxa in the United States, but only 4% were on seeds and fruits, such as oil-palm (Elaeis guineensis;
about taxa in South America, 2% in Oceania, and less than Gatter 1997, Freeman 2018a). They are social and breed
1% in Africa and Asia (Pacifici et al. 2017). Furthermore, at in loose colonies, with the breeding season corresponding
coarse resolutions, studies tend to miss details of impacts to the dry season (Sep–Feb). Current population estimates
of climate change at regional-to-local levels, particularly for Timneh Parrots are of 100,000–500,000 individuals
for range-restricted species that may be particularly sus- (IUCN 2018).
ceptible to climate change (Hannah et  al. 2002, Thomas White-necked Rockfowl is also an Upper Guinea forest
et  al. 2004, Malcolm et  al. 2006, Sekercioglu et  al. 2008, endemic, classified as Vulnerable by IUCN due to popu-
Carr et al. 2014). lation declines caused by habitat loss and fragmentation
In this study, we used correlative ecological niche models (IUCN 2018). The Picathartidae includes just 2 species of
to assess current and potential future distributions of 3 rockfowl endemic to West Africa. White-necked Rockfowl
range-restricted birds (Timneh Parrot [Psittacus erithacus is a largely insectivorous colonial breeder with preference
timneh], Ballman’s Malimbe [Malimbus ballmanni], and for rocky primary forest habitats, where it builds mud nests
White-necked Rockfowl [Picathartes gymnocephalus]) in on rock faces and cave roofs during the wet season (Allport
West Africa in response to global climate change (Peterson 1991, Thompson 1993). A current population estimate for
et  al. 2001, 2002, 2011; Pearson and Dawson 2003). We the species is 10,000 individuals (IUCN 2018).

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B. Freeman, J. Sunnarborg, and A. T. Peterson Effects of climate change on range-restricted African birds  3

Ballman’s Malimbe is an Upper Guinea forest endemic, low and high emissions scenarios for greenhouse gases.
classified as Endangered by IUCN due to population de- The GCMs represent independent simulations of global
clines as a result of habitat loss and fragmentation (Field climate processes, and thus allow understanding of un-
1979, Gatter and Gardner 1993, Freeman et  al. 2018a, certainty in future climate patterns. We used these 2 RCPs

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IUCN 2018). Ballman’s Malimbe has also been recorded in because tropical West Africa has been projected to experi-
moderately to heavily logged forests (Gatter and Gardner ence novel warm climates ~2 decades earlier (i.e. late 2030s
1993). It is insectivorous, usually foraging in mixed-species to early 2040s) under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 than the
flocks in middle canopies (8–22 m; Gatter and Gardner global average (Diffenbaugh and Giorgi 2012, Mora et al.
1993, Gatter 1997, Freeman et  al. 2018a). The species 2013, Barros et al. 2014). In fact, Diffenbaugh and Giorgi
builds hanging nests 8–21 m above the ground in lianas; its (2012) identified Western Africa as a hotspot of climate
breeding season spans March to November, including both change under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.
rainy and dry seasons (Gatter and Gardner 1993, Gatter
1997). Current population estimates are 10,000–15,000 in- Data Analysis
dividuals (IUCN 2018). An important step in ecological niche modeling is to delin-
Data for these species were error-checked and im- eate a realistic calibration region (M; that is, the set of sites
proved to meet appropriate standards for ecological niche accessible to a species) over which models are calibrated
modeling. To this end, we assembled data from the 3 (Barve et  al. 2011). In this study, we delineated M using
databases for each species and split the merged datasets the ecoregions of West Africa (Olson and Dinerstein 2002).
into georeferenced and non-georeferenced portions. For each species we buffered the ecoregions with highest
Georeferenced data were checked for errors and data concentrations of occurrence points by one ecoregion on
consistency for geographic coordinates (Chapman 2005). each side (Peterson et  al. 2011). Our 3 focal species had
Where possible, errors were fixed; otherwise, problem- the same general distributional pattern; as a result, we used
atic data points were removed from the datasets. Non- the same calibration area for the 3 species in our analysis.
georeferenced data that had detailed location information Following delineation of M, we masked all environmental
(e.g., town/village, county, country) were georeferenced variables to the extent of our M in ArcGIS 10.5.1. For fu-
using Google Earth. The 2 datasets were combined and ture climate projections, we transferred our models to the
spatially rarefied to remove duplicate points using SDM full extent of West Africa.
Toolbox 2.2b in ArcGIS 10.4.1 (Brown 2014). Following the To determine subsets of important environmental vari-
cleaning process, we were left with 22 occurrence points ables with which to calibrate our models, we eliminated
for White-necked Rockfowl, 10 for Ballman’s Malimbe, and one variable from each pair of the 15 climatic variables
10 for Timneh Parrot. Numbers of occurrences (particu- presenting Pearson correlation coefficients above 0.8. To
larly for Ballman’s Malimbe and Timneh Parrot) were low this reduced set, we applied jackknife approaches, using
for ecological niche modeling; however, we used a robust the occurrence points for each species (Pearson et al. 2007,
jackknife approach for small sample sizes (Pearson et  al. Shcheglovitova and Anderson 2013). Based on the test
2007; see detail below). In this “leave-one-out” approach, gain distributions in these analyses, we selected 3 subsets
each observed locality is removed once from the set of oc- of uncorrelated variables for each species to enable op-
currences, and a model is built using the remaining n − 1 timal model calibration and then generate many candidate
localities. The predictive performance of models devel- models for evaluation.
oped from this process is then tested using a randomiza-
tion test (Pearson et al. 2007). Note that the data cleaning Ecological Niche Modeling
and standardization process for each species was informed We used the Maxent algorithm (version 3.3.3k) to model
by the experience of one of the authors who has worked on ecological niches of our target species (Phillips et  al.
these species in the region. 2006). To calibrate models and choose optimal param-
To characterize environmental landscapes, we ac- eter values, we ran 2 sets of analyses: one for only White-
quired 15 climatic variables at 2.5′ (4.6 km) spatial reso- necked Rockfowl because it had a reasonable sample size
lution, characterizing temperature and precipitation, and for regular niche modeling protocols, and another for
their seasonality for present-day climatic conditions, from Ballman’s Malimbe and Timneh Parrot (individually) with
Hijmans et al. (2005) (see Supplemental Material Table 1). their smaller sample sizes. For White-necked Rockfowl, we
To characterize future climate conditions, we drew data split the occurrence data into 2 portions: 70% for model
for 2 IPCC representative concentration pathways (RCP calibration and 30% for evaluation. For Ballman’s Malimbe
4.5, 8.5) emissions scenarios and 27 global circulation and Timneh Parrot we used the cross-validate function to
models (GCMs), all for one future time period (2050; see implement a leave-one-out jackknife approach in Maxent,
Supplemental Material Table 2). These RCPs summarize using all occurrence records for each species to calibrate

The Condor: Ornithological Applications XX:1–10, © 2019 American Ornithological Society

4  Effects of climate change on range-restricted African birds B. Freeman, J. Sunnarborg, and A. T. Peterson

models (Pearson et al. 2007, Shcheglovitova and Anderson precipitation, temperature seasonality, and mean tempera-
2013), and a number of replicates in each model equal to ture of the coldest quarter as the environmental variables
the number of occurrences. most important for Timneh Parrot (Supplemental Material
To optimize model complexity for all 3 species, we assessed Table 1, Supplemental Material Figures 1–3), whereas

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29 combinations of Maxent’s 5 feature classes (linear, quad- annual precipitation, temperature seasonality, and pre-
ratic, product, threshold, and hinge) as they interacted with cipitation seasonality were most important for Ballman’s
17 regularization multipliers values (0.1, 0.2, 0.3…1, 2, 4, 5, Malimbe (Supplemental Material Table 1, Supplemental
6, plus 8 and 10). Using these combinations is an optimal ap- Material Figures 4–6). Temperature annual range, max-
proach to generating diverse candidate models from which imum temperature of the warmest month, and precipita-
to select models that best explain our data (Muscarella et al. tion of the driest quarter were the variables most important
2014, Cobos et  al. 2019). For White-necked Rockfowl, we for White-necked Rockfowl (Supplemental Material Table
evaluated candidate models and selected best models using 1, Supplemental Material Figures 7–9).
the Akaike Information Criterion corrected for small sample All 3 species showed broad present-day potential distri-
sizes (Hurvich and Tsai 1989), performed significance tests butions with respect to climate (Figure 1), suggesting that
using partial ROC (Peterson et al. 2008), and evaluated per- their original potential geographic ranges prior to wide-
formance using a 5% training presence threshold to evaluate spread forest destruction were quite broad in the region. For
omission (Peterson et al. 2011). For Ballman’s Malimbe and Timneh Parrot and White-necked Rockfowl, present-day
Timneh Parrot, we applied the Pearson et  al. (2007) small- potential distributions matched closely the distribution of
sample significance test. Specifically, we used the prevalence Upper Guinea lowland forest (southwestern Sierra Leone
(proportion of area predicted as suitable by a model) and the to southwestern Togo), extending northwest to Guinea
minimum training presence training omission (a metric of Bissau, beyond the known range of White-necked Rockfowl
performance) from the Maxent output. Ideally, the Pearson (Figure 1). For Ballman’s Malimbe, present-day potential
et al. (2007) small-sample significance test is meant to filter distributions were broad across southeastern Liberia and
the models; however, all candidate models for the species were narrower in northwestern Liberia, southeastern Guinea,
significant. Hence, to reduce the set of candidate models to and southwestern Côte d’Ivoire (Figure 1). Interestingly,
the best few, we calculated the median prevalence for all rep- our models projected an isolated far eastern distribu-
licates, calculated deviations from the median, and selected tional area (in southern Ghana) beyond the known range
models closest to the median as the best for future analysis. of this species (Figure 1). Future potential distributions for
To generate binary maps for each of the present and fu- Ballman’s Malimbe and White-necked Rockfowl, taking
ture time periods, we projected final (“best”) models for into account climate change processes, tended to be stable,
each species to the present and future climate data sets. and similar to their present-day distributions (Figure 2).
We again applied a 5% training omission threshold based In contrast, we found marked climate change–driven po-
on the occurrence data used to calibrate models for each tential range loss across the range of Timneh Parrots with
species (Peterson et  al 2011, Peterson 2014). To assess no areas becoming newly suitable (Figures 1 and 2). Our
vulnerability of each species to global climate change, we models suggested that Timneh Parrot will be almost en-
combined medians of the present and 27 future projec- tirely restricted to Liberia by 2050 (Figures 1 and 2). The
tions for each emissions scenario to create a visualization projections of the 2 RCPs were closely similar in all cases
that shows the potential for range expansion, range retrac- (Figure 1). Climate change–driven range gains of Ballman’s
tion, and range stability (see Campbell et  al. 2015). Last, Malimbe and White-necked Rockfowl were concentrated
we calculated the range of median values across all GCMs in southeastern Côte d’Ivoire, southwestern Togo, and nor-
for each species for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 as a measure of model thern and northeastern Liberia.
uncertainty. All analyses were performed in the kuenm R Levels of uncertainty in model predictions differed between
Package (R Development Core Team 2014, Cobos et  al. species (Figure 3). White-necked Rockfowl showed high un-
2019) and ArcGIS 10.4.1. certainty in RCP 4.5 compared to RCP 8.5, and this uncer-
tainty was high in central and northern Liberia (Figure 3).
RESULTS For Ballman’s Malimbe, uncertainty was high in southeastern
Liberia, whereas for Timneh Parrot uncertainty was high in
Using combinations of 29 feature classes, 17 regulariza- northern and southeastern Liberia (Figure 3).
tion multipliers, and 3 environmental data sets, we as-
sessed a total of 1,479 candidate models for each species. DISCUSSION
Best models for all species were significantly different from
random (P < 0.001) and met the ≤5% omission criteria set for Data deficiency is a major challenge in modeling eco-
the different species. Jackknife analyses identified annual logical niches and estimating potential distributions of

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B. Freeman, J. Sunnarborg, and A. T. Peterson Effects of climate change on range-restricted African birds  5

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FIGURE 1.  Current and future potential distributions of White-necked Rockfowl, Ballman’s Malimbe, and Timneh Parrot for 2 emissions
scenarios (left side, RCP 4.5; right side, RCP 8.5) in 2050.

range-restricted species. In this study, we noted data limi- the predictive ability of our models and generate more data
tations for each of our study species; however, the ap- for these species. For instance, since it was first described
proaches adopted in this study are robust to relatively small by Gatter and Gardner (1993), Ballman’s Malimbe is known
samples (Pearson et al. 2007, Shcheglovitova and Anderson as endemic to Liberia, Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Côte
2013). Pearson et al. (2007), for example, using similar ap- d’Ivoire. Our models identified the possibility of an exten-
proaches with only 6 occurrence records, successfully de- sion of the species’ range in southern Ghana, such that sur-
veloped detailed predictions of distributions of geckos in veys in those regions can target this species. Indeed, the
Madagascar. Like Pearson et al. (2007), our results provide Nimba Flycatcher (Melaenornis annamarulae), long be-
a baseline with which to inform future survey planning lieved endemic to Liberia, Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Côte
across the region, which is in itself an opportunity to test d’Ivoire, was recently discovered in Atewa Range Forest

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6  Effects of climate change on range-restricted African birds B. Freeman, J. Sunnarborg, and A. T. Peterson

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FIGURE 2.  Climate change–driven range gains and losses for White-necked Rockfowl, Ballman’s Malimbe, and Timneh Parrot in 2050
based on areas unsuitable in the present, but with a strong chance of suitability in the future (gains) and areas predicted to be suitable
in present and completely unsuitable in the future (losses). Gains and losses for White-necked Rockfowl and Ballman’s Malimbe were
combined because they showed similar pattern. Note that no gains are anticipated for Timneh Parrot.

Reserve in southern Ghana (Demey and Hester 2008). distributions with respect to climate variables for all 3 spe-
Many Upper Guinea forest species of diverse taxonomic cies, although their landscape-level responses to land cover
groups (e.g., birds, plants, mammals) show similar distri- considerably reduce their actual distributions. A  similar
butional patterns. pattern has been observed in other studies looking at vul-
This study provides a first regional-to-local assessment of nerability to climate change of mammals, birds, and am-
impacts of global climate change on distributions of range- phibians of the region (Carr et al. 2014, Baker et al. 2015).
restricted, globally threatened West African birds at fine For example, compared to other taxonomic groups (am-
spatial resolution. We found broad present-day potential phibians and mammals), Carr et  al. (2014) found birds

The Condor: Ornithological Applications XX:1–10, © 2019 American Ornithological Society

B. Freeman, J. Sunnarborg, and A. T. Peterson Effects of climate change on range-restricted African birds  7

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FIGURE 3.  Uncertainty of models in range of median values of general circulation models for each species for RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Graphs
inserted in the right-hand column show the relationship between uncertainty and suitability for each species.

to have a low overall sensitivity to climate change in the be exacerbated by future climate change. This outcome is
region, but high sensitivity to forest cover. This low sen- likely if efforts are not made to reduce rates of forest loss
sitivity could explain the minimal climate change–driven in the region, as primary forests are irreplaceable for trop-
range loss and broader future potential distributions that ical species (Gibson et al. 2011). Moreover, West Africa has
we observed for Ballman’s Malimbe and White-necked been predicted to experience unprecedented departures
Rockfowl. In agreement with Carr et al. (2014), our results from its present/historical climate range as early as 2030s,
suggest that forest cover and its reduction are probably about 2 decades earlier then the global average (Mora et al.
much more significant drivers of bird species’ range loss 2013). As such, if forests are not protected, their destruc-
in this region (Figure 4). What is not clear yet, however, is tion could coincide with dramatic changes in the region’s
whether current threats to the ranges of these species will climate.

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8  Effects of climate change on range-restricted African birds B. Freeman, J. Sunnarborg, and A. T. Peterson

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FIGURE 4.  Map showing Upper Guinean forest cover across West Africa (Hansen et al. 2013) and ecological niche model for White-
necked Rockfowl. The dark green areas in the map represent high density forest cover; gray areas represent the potential distributions
of White-necked Rockfowl under climate change.

On the other hand, we noted marked climate change– conservation efforts in the region should not only focus
driven future potential range loss across the range of on protecting individual habitat fragments suitable to
Timneh Parrot, with no areas of range gain. Our future these species but also prioritize creating corridors for
projections anticipate that the species’ range will be al- connectivity between suitable habitats (Freeman et  al.
most entirely restricted to Liberia by 2050 (Figures 1 and 2018b). Knowledge of dispersal abilities of these spe-
2). Interestingly, Carr et  al. (2014) found Grey Parrot to cies is limited, although Timneh Parrots have been
be one of few bird species sensitive to climate change in observed to travel long distances in search of food re-
the region. This finding is troubling for a species that is sources in southeastern Liberia (Freeman et al. 2018a).
already under massive pressure from overexploitation for Ballman’s Malimbe and White-necked Rockfowl are
the pet trade and habitat loss (CITES 2013) Projected im- more specialized and probably less vagile forest dwellers
pacts of climate change on this species, together with on- less likely to use other habitats.
going threats to its habitat and pressure from the pet trade, Of the 3 species assessed in this study, only White-
should provide increased incentive for conservation focus necked Rockfowl has a regional species conservation
on this species. For all species, we emphasize that areas action plan, although it has yet to be implemented
presenting a combination of high suitability and low uncer- (Thompson et  al. 2004). Hence, to optimize conserva-
tainty (see graphics in Figure 3) should be survey priorities. tion of the 3 species, we recommend that regional and
In addition to authenticating models, data on the ecology, national species conservation action plans incorporating
habitat requirements, life history strategies, and threats af- climate change adaptation strategies and an implemen-
fecting each species would inform conservation decisions tation roadmap be developed for each species. Our
(e.g., Behl and Benkman 2018). models should provide informative baseline information
Particularly, Timneh Parrots should be given urgent for planning and prioritization.
attention given the predicted high risk impacts of cli-
mate change on the distribution potential of the taxon.
Furthermore, note that the colonization of uninhab- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
ited suitable areas predicted in these models depends We are thankful to members of the KUENM group, particu-
on the dispersal abilities of each species and opportun- larly Marlon Cobos, who developed the KUENM R package
ities (e.g., suitable corridors) available to them. As such, used in this study.

The Condor: Ornithological Applications XX:1–10, © 2019 American Ornithological Society

B. Freeman, J. Sunnarborg, and A. T. Peterson Effects of climate change on range-restricted African birds  9

Funding statement: B.F.  was funded with a Conservation CITES (2013). Strengthening capacity for monitoring and regu-
International/Global Environment Facility (GEF-5810) grant. lation of international trade of African Grey Parrot. Report
Author contributions: J.S., A.T.P., and B.F. conceived the pro- prepared by BirdLife Africa Partnership Secretariat, Geneva,
ject idea and composed the manuscript. J.S. and B.F. conducted Switzerland.

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