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MODULE -4 TRIP DISTRIBUTION

INTRODUCTION:

The gravity model is much like Newton's theory of gravity. The gravity model assumes that the
trips produced at an origin and attracted to a destination are directly proportional to the total trip
productions at the origin and the total attractions at the destination.

A model that is usually used for trip distribution is that of the gravity function, an application of Newton’s
fundamental law of attraction. In the Original Newtonian formulation, the attraction, F, between two
bodies of respective masses M1 and M2, separated by a distance D, will be equal to
M1∗M2
F=g
d2
Where,
g = is a constant or scaling factor which ensures that the equation is balanced in terms of the measurement
units. As we all know, of course, g is the gravitational constant in the Newtonian formulation. The
numerator of the function is the attraction term (or, alternatively, the attraction of M2 for M1) while the
denominator of the equation,
d2 = indicates that the attraction between the two bodies falls off as a function of their squared distance. It
is an impedance (or resistance) term.

1. GRAVITY MODELS:
Based on Newton’s concept of gravity, the model as proposed by Voorhees assumes that the interchange
of trips between zones in an area is dependent upon the relative attraction between the zones and the
spatial separation between them as measured by an appropriate function of distance.
This function of spatial separation adjusts the relative attraction of each zone for the ability, desire or
necessity of the trip maker to overcome the spatial separation.
Whereas the trip interchange is directly proportional to the relative attraction between the zones, it is
inversely proportional to the measure of spatial separation.
A simple equation representing the above relationship is of the following form:

Pi ∗ Aj
Ti−j =K n
d ij
Where,
Ti-j = Trips between zones i and j
Pi = Trips produced in zone i
Aj = Trips attracted to zone j
dij = Distance between zone I and zone j, or the time or cost of travelling between them.
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K = A constant, usually independent of i.

n = an exponential constant, whose value is usually found to lie between 1 and 3.
k = Total number of zones.
The following formulation was also used in earlier studies dispensing with the proportionality constant:

Aj
(di−j )n
Ti−j = Pi ∗ Aj Ak
(di−j ) n + ….. (di−k )n

TWO BASIC ASSUMPTIONS OF ALL SYNTHETIC METHODS

1. Before future (or present) travel patterns can be determined, causes of movement must be understood.
2. Causal relationship creating movement patterns are considered similar to laws of physics

ADVANTAGES OF GRAVITY MODEL:

1. Based on a causal logic: stresses value of trip attraction (pull) and resistance (friction).
2. Recognizes that trip purpose effects trip pattern -- can be solved independently for different trip types
at same time of day (home to work, home to recreation, commercial...).
3. Changes in land use can be easily introduced (change pull).
4. Improvements in transportation facilities can be included (change friction).
5. Deals with flows in both directions.
6. Includes intra- as well as inter- TAZ trips.
7. Easily solved.

DISADVANTAGES OF GRAVITY MODEL:

1. Use of inverse power of distance for resistance not always suitable, varies with purpose and time of
day (congestion); fails to give valid results for very long or very short trips.
2. In doubly constrained approach, constants Ai and Bj cause the model to fit existing set of Trip
Generation factors excellently, but due to the fact these are CONSTANTS they might create great
distortions in predicting the future (for example, growing congestion on routes not factored in).
3. In past, iteration procedures were cumbersome, no longer with modern software and computers.

2. OPPORTUNITY MODELS:
Opportunity models are based on the statistical foundation. The concept has been pioneered by
Schneider and developed by subsequent studies. The two well known models are:
i. Intervening opportunities model.

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ii. Competing opportunities model.

The opportunity models can be represented by the general formula:
Ti-j = OiP(Dj)
Where,
Ti-j = Predicted number of trips from zone I to j.
Oi = Total number of trips originating in zone i.
P (Dj) = Calculated probability of a trip terminating in zone j.
Dj = Total trips destinations attracted to zone j.

i. INTERVENING OPPORTUNITIES MODEL:

In the intervening opportunities model, it is assumed that the trip interchange between an origin and a
destination zone is equal to the total trips emanating from the origin zone multiplied by the probability
that each trip will find an acceptable terminal at the destination.
It is further assumed that the probability that a destination will be acceptable is determined by two zonal
characteristics:
i. The size of the destination and the order in which it is encountered as trips proceed from the origin.
ii. The probability function in above, P(Dj), may then be expressed as the difference between the
probability that the trips origin at i will find a suitable terminal in one of the destinations, ordered
by closeness to i, up to and including j, and the probability that they will find a suitable terminal in
the destination up to but excluding j.
iii. The following equation represents mathematically are:

Ti-j = Oi(e-LB – e-LA)

Where,
Ti-j = Predicted number of trips from zone i to j.
Oi = Total number of trips originating in zone i.
L = Probability density (probability per destination) of destination acceptability at the point of
consideration.
A = number of destinations between i and j (including j) when arranged in order of closeness.
B = number of destinations between i and j (excluding j) when arranged in order of closeness.
It may be noted that:
A = B + Dj

ii. COMPETING OPPORTUNITIES MODEL:

In the competing Opportunities model, the adjusted probability of a trip ending in a zone is the
product of two independent probabilities, Viz, the probability of a trip being attracted to a zone and the
probability of a trip finding a destination in that zone. A form of this model is given below,

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Ai
Pj ∑
j Aj
Ti−j = Aj
∑( )
∑ j Aj

3. TIME FUNCTION ITERATION MODELS:

A variant of Furness was developed called Time Function Iteration which took the distance or
generalized cost between the origin and destination zone as a starting point, from which to apply
Furness's row and column balancing. The growth - factor method does not use information about travel
costs.
This method assumes that the trip distance is influenced by the journey times and row and column
totals the trip ends.
Successive iterations are performed by alternately matching with the ultimate O and D and finding the
adjustment factors for column and row totals respectively.

4. DESIRE LINES:
The data obtained from the O-D survey usually yields a vast amount of data. To understand them,
it is necessary to present them in convenient tabular or pictorial form.
The most convenient form is an O-D matrix as tabular representation and desire line chart as a pictorial
representation. In desire line chart, the trips between any pair of zones are represented by a straight line
connecting the centroids of the two zones and having a band width drawn to a suitable scale to represent
the actual volume of trips. A typical desire line chart is given in figure below

Fig: Desire lines Diagram

5. TRAVEL DEMAND MODELING:

Travel demand modeling aims to establish the spatial distribution of travel explicitly by means of
an appropriate system of zones. Modeling of demand thus implies a procedure for predicting what travel
decisions people would like to make given the generalized travel cost of each alternatives. The base
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decisions include the choice of destination, the choice of the mode, and the choice of the route. Although
various modeling approaches are adopted, we will discuss only the classical transport model popularly
known as four-stage model (FSM).

The classic model is presented as a sequence of four sub models: trip generation, trip distribution, modal
split, trip assignment. The model starts with defining the study area and dividing them into a number of
zones and considering the entire transport network in the system.

 The database also include the current (base year) levels of population, economic activity like
employment, shopping space, educational, and leisure facilities of each zone.
 Then the trip generation model is evolved which uses the above data to estimate the total number
of trips generated and attracted by each zone.

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 The next step is the allocation of these trips from each zone to various other destination zones in
the study area using trip distribution models.
 The output of the above model is a trip matrix which denotes the trips from each zone to every
other zones.
 In the succeeding step the trips are allocated to different modes based on the modal attributes
using the modal split models. This is essentially slicing the trip matrix for various modes
generated to a mode specific trip matrix.
 Finally, each trip matrix is assigned to the route network of that particular mode using the trip
assignment models. The step will give the loading on each link of the network.

6. FACTORS INFLUENCING TRIP PRODUCTION:

Households may be characterized in many ways, but a large number of trip-production studies
have shown that the following variables are the most important characteristics with respect to the major
trip trips such as work and shopping trips:
1. The number of workers in a household, and
2. The household income or some proxy of income, such as the number of cars per household.

Factors Influencing Trip Attraction

Depending on the floor areas, the trip attraction can be determined from retail floor area, service and
office floor area and manufacturing and wholesaling floor area.

7. MODAL SPLIT ANALYSIS:

The third stage in travel demand modeling is modal split. The trip matrix or O-D matrix obtained
from the trip distribution is sliced into number of matrices representing each mode.

Modal split is the process of separating person-trips by the mode of travel. It is usually expressed as a
fraction, ratio or percentage of the total number of trips.

The choice of transport mode is probably one of the most important classic models in transport planning.
This is because of the key role played by public transport in policy making. Public transport modes make
use of road space more efficiently than private transport. Also they have more social benefits like if more
people begin to use public transport, there will be less congestion on the roads and the accidents will be
less. Again in public transport, we can travel with low cost. In addition, the fuel is used more efficiently.

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8. FACTORS AFFECTING MODAL SPLIT:

The factors may be listed under four groups::
i. Characteristics of the trip.
ii. Household Characteristics.
iii. Zonal Characteristics.
iv. Network Characteristics.

i. Characteristics of the trip:

a. Trip Purpose: The choice of mode is guided to a certain extent by the trip purpose. For example,
home based school trips have a high rate of usage of public transport. On the other hand, home-
based shopping journeys can have a higher rate of private car usage, for the simple reason that is
more convenient to shop when travelling in a personalised transport.

b. Trip length: The length can govern an individual’s choice of a particular mode. A measure of the
trip length is also possible by the travel time and the cost of travelling.

ii. Household Characteristics:

a. Income: The income of a person is a direct determinant of the expenses he is prepared to incur on
a journey. Higher income groups are able to purchase and maintain private cars, and thus private car
trips are more frequent as the income increases. A general trend is that the higher the income the
higher is the trip generation rate.

b. Car Ownership: Car ownership is determined by the income and for this reasons both income
and car ownership are interrelated in their effect on modal choice. In general, families which own a
car prefer private car trips and in contrast families without car patronise public transport in the
absence of any other alternative.

c. Family Size and Composition: The number of persons in the family, the number of school-going
children, the number of wage earners, the number of unemployed, the age-sex structure of the family,
and some other factors connected with the socio-economic status of the family profoundly influence
the modal choice. Some of these factors are responsible for certain “captive” trips in public transport,
such as those due to old age pensioners, school children, crippled and infirm persons and those who
do not wish to drive.
iii. Zonal Characteristics:
a. Residential density: The use of public transport increases as the residential density increases.
This is because of the fact that areas with highest residential density are inhabited by persons with

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lower income, with lower levels of private car ownership. It is also found that higher density areas
are served well by public transport system and such areas are oriented towards a better use of the
public transport system.

b. Concentration of workers.
c. Distance from CBD.

iv. Network Characteristics:

a. Accessibility ratio: Accessibility ratio is a measure of the relative accessibility of that zone to all
other zones by means of mass transit network and highway network.

b. Travel time ratio: The ratio of the travel time by public transport and travel time by private car
gives a measure of the attractiveness or otherwise of public transport system. The travel time by
public transport system is itself composed of:
 Time spent walking to public transport vehicle at origin.
 Time spent for waiting for public transport vehicle.
 Time spent in public transport vehicle.
 Time spent in transfer from one public transport vehicle to another and,
 Time spent walking from public transport vehicle at destination.

Travel time by Private car is composed of:

 Time spent driving the car,
 Time spent in parking at destination, and
 Time spent in walking from parked vehicle to destination.

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Fig: Variation of modal split related to economic status and travel time ratios.

c. Travel cost ratio: The ratio of cost of travel by public transport and cost of travel by car is one of
the most important factors influencing modal choice.
In assessing the cost of travel by cars, the possibility of any arrangement of pooling cars for
journey to work is also a consideration. The importance of travel cost is related to the economic
status. People with high incomes are unmindful of cost and prefer more expensive modes.

9. MODAL SPLIT IN URBAN TRANSPORT PLANNING PROCESS:

Basically two variations are possible:
i.Pre – distribution modal split
ii.Post – distribution modal split

i. PRE – DISTRIBUTION MODAL SPLIT

It is one in which the modal split is considered before the trip distribution stages. This procedure
is also known as Trip End Modal Split procedure.
In this procedure, there are again two possibilities,
i. At trip generation stage itself.
ii. After trip generation, but before trip distribution.
If the modal split is considered at the trip generation stage itself, it is necessary to derive separate MLR
equation for each mode of transport. The factors that are normally considered to influence modal choice

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in this type of procedure are car – ownership, residential density, distance of the zone of origin from the
CBD, etc.
If the modal split is carried out after generation but before distribution, the trip generations are calculated
the assumption that the mode of travel has no influence trip generation. After thus, determining the total
trip productions and attractions, these trips are allocated to the public transport system and private car by
considering the relative attractiveness of each mode and then distribution is carried out.

ADVANTAGES PRE – DISTRIBUTION MODAL SPLIT

i. They are less difficult and less costly as compared to post-distribution methods.
ii. The possibility of separate public transport and private car distribution is afforded by this method
because of the differing trip lengths.
iii.This method reflects factors such as income, car-ownership, family size, employment which are
characteristics of tip generation.

DISADVANTAGES PRE – DISTRIBUTION MODAL SPLIT

i. It does not consider the trip generation characteristics fully.
ii. It is insensitive to future developments in inter zonal travel.
iii. Since these methods are strongly wedded to existing and historical levels of public transport
service, they are inappropriate to studies involving planning of improvements to public transport
systems where significantly different levels of service are contemplated.

Public Transport Land use Socio economic Highway

system Characteristics Characteristics Characteristics Characteristic
s

Trip Generation

Modal Split

Public Transport trip distribution Road vehicle trip distribution

Public Transport traffic assignment Highway traffic assignment

Flow diagram for modal split carried out between Trip Generation and Trip Distribution

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ii. POST – DISTRIBUTION MODAL SPLIT:

Public Transport Land use Socio economic Highway

system Characteristics Characteristics Characteristics Characteristic
s

Trip Generation

Total person trip

distribution

Modal Split

Zone to Zone Zone to Zone Develop Zone to

Public transport Private car Zone car
person trips person trips occupancy

Zone to Zone
Car vehicle
trips

Public Transport Highway

traffic assignment traffic assignment

Flow Diagram for Modal Split Carried out after Trip Distribution
It is one in which the modal split is considered after trip distribution stage. This procedure is also
known as trip interchange modal split procedure.
In the post-distribution modals one possibility is to carry out modal split after distribution, but before
assignment in this procedure the zone-to-zone home-based trips are known using this as input the
procedure determines the
Zone-to-zone public transport travellers on the basis of variables representing characteristics of the person
making the journey characteristics of the destination end of the journey and characteristics of the transport
system-all measured on zone to zone basis. By subtracting the zone to zone public transport trips from the
total zone to zone person trips, the person trips made by motor vehicle are derived. The assignment of
these trips is carried out as the next stage.

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ADVANTAGES:
i. It is useful in situations where serious consideration is given to public transport planning.
ii. This is beneficial for long-term decision-making.
iii. The method considers private car and public transport usage on a zone to zone basis instead of a
zonal basis as in pre-distribution models.

DISADVANTAGES:

i. This modal is more complex if the number of zones is large.

ii. The total person trip distribution is carried out before any modal choice is considered.

10. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN MODAL SPLIT ANALYSIS:

The following techniques are used for determining modal split are:
i.Probit Analysis
ii.Logit Analysis
iii.Discriminant Analysis
i. Probit Analysis:
Probit analysis is based on the principle that if members of population are subjected to a stimulus
that can range over an infinite scale, the frequency of response to stimulus will be normally distributed.
In modal choice, the stimulus is assumed to be made up of the disutility of travel on two modes and of the
characteristics of the user. The probit equation can be written as,
Y = a0 + a1x1 + a2x2 + …..
Where, Y = Probit value for the probability of transit mode choice.
x1, x2 = Disutility variables
DISADVANTAGES: Determination of a0, a1, a2,….is done by calibration procedures, often lengthy and
time-consuming.

ii. LOGIT ANALYSIS:

Logit analysis assumes that the probability of the occurrence of an event varies wrt function F(x)
as a sigmoid curve called the logistic curve. The logit model can be written as,
1
P1 =
1+ eG(x)
Where, P1= Probability of an individual choosing mode1
1- P1 = Probability of an individual choosing mode 2
G (x) = 𝛼1 (C1- C2) + 𝛼2 (t1 – t2) + 𝛼3 ( ) + …..
𝛼1, 𝛼2, 𝛼3, … .. = Modal parameters
C1, C2 = cost of travel by modes 1 and 2
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t1, t2, = Time of travel by modes 1 and 2

ADVANTAGES: Simpler than probit analysis for use and interpretation.

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