March 16, 2022

To: Mayor and Members of City Council

From: John P. Curp, Interim City Manager

Subject: Five-Year Estimates of Housing Unit Production

Reference Document #202200178

On February 2, 2022, City Council referred the following motion for a report:

MOTION, dated January 21, 2022, submitted by Councilmember Harris, WE MOVE that the
Administration provide a report within thirty (30) days outlining the number, neighborhood
geography and Adjusted Median Income (AMI) range for new housing units that have come
online in the City of Cincinnati for at least the last five (5) years. The administration shall
take into consideration a variety of data sources, considering but not limited to: Building &
Inspections, CAGIS, Cincinnati Waterworks, and other feasible and accurate sources.

Summary of Findings

In response to the subject motion, the Administration conducted a survey of all available and
pertinent data sources that track housing production. This analysis produced the findings discussed
below and also identified several opportunities for improvement in how the City collects and tracks
data on housing production and the loss of housing units. This is a summary of the findings:

 New construction in the City added a total of 4,177 new units over the last five years, an
average of 835 units per year. This excludes additional units created through renovation of
already existing buildings.
 The City lost at minimum 1,325 units to demolition in that same time period, producing an
estimated net increase in housing units through new construction of 2,852 units or an
average of 570 units per year.
 The City created or preserved 1,280 income-restricted affordable housing units over the last
five years, an average of 256 units per year. This includes 983 new affordable units created
through new construction or renovation and 297 units that were preserved through
renovation and otherwise would have been lost. The location and income limits associated
with these units are detailed below.

Available Data Sources and Analysis

In coordination with the Department of Buildings and Inspections (B&I), CAGIS, Greater Cincinnati
Water Works (GCWW), and the Department of Planning and Engagement, the Office of Performance
and Data Analytics (OPDA) conducted a comprehensive review of available data sources and
alternative methodologies to determine the most accurate estimate of new housing units1 created,

1
This report defines a New Housing Unit as a place where permanent provisions are provided for living,
sleeping, eating, cooking and sanitation within a single unit with a length of stay exceeding 30 days.
1
by neighborhood, from 2017 to 2021. OPDA concluded that the B&I permitting data provided the
most reliable stand-alone data source. Efforts to pair permitting data with additional data sources
did not yield more refined estimates. As discussed below, B&I permitting data was utilized for
estimating new construction of units and demolition of units.

B&I permitting data for new construction does not capture the market price for the housing units
produced nor does it capture if a particular project will create new income-restricted affordable
housing units.2 Therefore, to estimate the number of affordable units constructed, the Department
of Community and Economic Development (DCED) conducted an analysis of City-subsidized
affordable housing projects within the last five-years. Since most all affordable housing projects
require some level of City support and subsidy, this data set produces a strong estimate of overall
affordable housing units created within the City.

Overall, this analysis identified several opportunities to improve the City’s practices on recording
and capturing data regarding housing creation and loss in order to improve future tracking and
reporting.

New Housing Unit Construction: 2017-2021

Housing units are created through both new construction and the alteration or renovation of existing
structures (i.e., conversion of an existing single-family unit into a duplex or rehabilitation of a long
vacant building to permit occupancy). However, during this analysis OPDA and B&I determined
that the method utilized for capturing data on new housing units created through alteration or
renovation was not consistent or reliable. As a result, the scope of the reported data below is limited
to new construction only and does not include units added through alterations. Based on this
analysis and findings, B&I is taking the necessary steps to improve data collection on creation of
new units through alterations to ensure future reporting can include these units.

CY2017 – CY2021 NEW CONSTRUCTION HOUSING UNITS BY NEIGHBORHOOD

NEW AVG NEW AVG

NEIGHBORHOOD CONSTRUCTION PER NEIGHBORHOOD CONSTRUCTION PER
2017-2021 YEAR 2017-2021 YEAR
CUF 736 147.2 PENDLETON 8 1.6
MADISONVILLE 599 119.8 UNASSIGNED 7 1.4
MT. AUBURN 420 84 CALIFORNIA 6 1.2
DOWNTOWN 402 80.4 PLEASANT RIDGE 6 1.2
OAKLEY 316 63.2 CLIFTON 3 0.6
CORRYVILLE 237 47.4 KENNEDY HEIGHTS 3 0.6
WALNUT HILLS 209 41.8 CAMP WASHINGTON 2 0.4
EVANSTON 159 31.8 HARTWELL 2 0.4
MT. ADAMS 139 27.8 LINWOOD 1 0.2
NORTH AVONDALE -
AVONDALE 131 26.2 1 0.2
PADDOCK HILLS
COLLEGE HILL 88 17.6 CARTHAGE 0 0
HYDE PARK 84 16.8 EAST WESTWOOD 0 0
OVER-THE-RHINE 81 16.2 ENGLISH WOODS 0 0

2
This report defines an “Affordable Housing Unit” as a housing unit created with required tenant income limits.
2
SOUTH CUMMINSVILLE 80 16 LOWER PRICE HILL 0 0
NORTHSIDE 78 15.6 MILLVALE 0 0
MT. LOOKOUT 72 14.4 MT. AIRY 0 0
WEST END 58 11.6 NORTH FAIRMOUNT 0 0
ROSELAWN 50 10 QUEENSGATE 0 0
BOND HILL 38 7.6 RIVERSIDE 0 0
EAST END 37 7.4 SEDAMSVILLE 0 0
COLUMBIA TUSCULUM 36 7.2 SOUTH FAIRMOUNT 0 0
SPRING GROVE
SAYLER PARK 26 5.2 0 0
VILLAGE
VILLAGES AT ROLL
EAST WALNUT HILLS 25 5 0 0
HILL
MT. WASHINGTON 15 3 WEST PRICE HILL 0 0
WESTWOOD 13 2.6 WINTON HILLS 0 0
EAST PRICE HILL 9 1.8 TOTAL 4177 835.4

For reference, according to data from the 2020 Decennial Census, the City has a total of 139,567
occupied housing units. The average per year new construction unit count of 835.4 new units
represents approximately 0.6% of this total. Further, the City of Cincinnati added 12,374 persons
between the 2010 Decennial Census and the 2020 Decennial Census, an average of 1,237 persons
per year.

Reductions in Housing Units: Demolitions and Vacated Buildings

While new construction adds additional housing units, there are many additional factors (e.g.,
market dynamics or lack of maintenance or repair) that can reduce housings units through
demolition or required vacation of buildings. However, to date, available data sources do not allow
the City to track with accuracy the unit count reduction resulting from these actions. Though the
City’s demolition contractors report unit counts, the existing data is not consistent or reliable.3 In
order to provide at least a demonstration of the volume and geographic dispersion of demolitions, a
graph is included below demonstrating the number of residential demolition permits issued per
neighborhood over the last five years. It can be safely assumed that each permit accounts for at
minimum a reduction in one housing unit. The contractor-reported unit count is also stated;
however, as discussed this unit count reporting data is not consistent and, therefore, should not be
relied upon.

Going forward, B&I is taking necessary steps to improve the data collection on a per-unit-basis for
demolitions and the City’s Vacated Building Maintenance License (VBML) list to ensure future
reporting can more accurately account for these factors.

3
For example, contractors may not be able to determine the number of existing units in a building prior to demolition and as
a result, record 0 or 1 unit for what may have been a multifamily building. Despite these limitations, the data does represent
an approximation of residential demolition activity during the past 5 years. The table contains cases where Indicated Units is
less than Demolition Permits. This highlights situations where 0 units were entered on the permit.
3
 CY2017 – CY2021 DEMOLITION PERMITS BY NEIGHBORHOOD

DEMOLITION INDICATED DEMOLITION INDICATED

NEIGHBORHOOD NEIGHBORHOOD
PERMITS UNITS PERMITS UNITS
AVONDALE 164 387 LINWOOD 13 15
WALNUT HILLS 117 215 LOWER PRICE HILL 13 22
EAST PRICE HILL 106 143 SEDAMSVILLE 13 14
SOUTH FAIRMOUNT 80 77 SOUTH CUMMINSVILLE 13 14
EVANSTON 75 82 OVER-THE-RHINE 12 7
HYDE PARK 73 84 EAST WESTWOOD 10 10
OAKLEY 52 43 CAMP WASHINGTON 9 3
CUF 42 57 CLIFTON 9 9
MADISONVILLE 42 54 DOWNTOWN 9 250
NORTH FAIRMOUNT 42 42 EAST WALNUT HILLS 9 13
MT. AUBURN 39 57 MT. AIRY 9 6
WEST END 34 40 PLEASANT RIDGE 9 16
WEST PRICE HILL 34 44 UNASSIGNED 8 4
CORRYVILLE 29 104 MT. WASHINGTON 8 4
MILLVALE 29 98 MT. ADAMS 7 7
MT. LOOKOUT 27 33 QUEENSGATE 7 0
RIVERSIDE 25 27 CALIFORNIA 5 6
WESTWOOD 25 34 SAYLER PARK 5 3
NORTHSIDE 23 21 HARTWELL 4 3
BOND HILL 19 21 KENNEDY HEIGHTS 4 5
EAST END 19 35 WINTON HILLS 4 0
NORTH AVONDALE -
COLLEGE HILL 17 13 1 20
PADDOCK HILLS
COLUMBIA
16 19 SPRING GROVE VILLAGE 1 1
TUSCULUM
CARTHAGE 13 10 VILLAGES AT ROLL HILL 1 1
TOTAL 1325 2173

Income-Restricted Affordable Housing Unit Production: 2017-2021

As discussed above, B&I’s permitting data captures construction activity, but it does not capture the
market price of new housing units constructed or other data that would allow the City to determine
affordability of new units constructed. However, due to the inherent need for gap-financing and
subsidy in affordable housing projects, DCED is involved to some degree in the majority of projects
in the City that produce income-restricted affordable housing units. The graphs below detail income-
restricted affordable units created or preserved through construction or renovation in the City over
the last five years, categorized by the maximum Area Median Income (AMI) permitted for the units
and neighborhood.

4
 CY2017 – CY2021 AFFORDABLE UNIT PRODUCTION
BY AMI

NUMBER AVG PER PERCENT

MAXIMUM AMI
OF UNITS YEAR

30% AMI 59 11.8 5%

50% AMI 89 17.8 7%

60% AMI 941 188.2 74%
80% AMI 184 36.8 14%
120% AMI 7 1.4 1%

TOTAL 1280 256

CY2017 – CY2021 AFFORDABLE UNIT PRODUCTION

BY NEIGHBORHOOD

NUMBER PERCENT
NEIGHBORHOOD
OF UNITS

WALNUT HILLS 261 20%

AVONDALE 260 20%
WEST END 260 20%
OVER-THE-RHINE 183 14%
PENDLETON 85 7%
CBD/DOWNTOWN 69 5%
NORTHSIDE 64 5%
LOWER PRICE HILL 52 4%
COLLEGE HILL 26 2%
EAST PRICE HILL 13 1%
MT. AUBURN 7 1%
1280

This information includes 983 new units generated from both renovations and new construction and
also 297 units that were previously income-restricted units but necessitated renovations to preserve
those units as quality, habitable affordable housing units.

As discussed above, the B&I permitting data does not include renovations, so it is not possible to
determine a precise percentage of the overall housing units created that are affordable; however,
the data does make clear that proportionately the City has added significant new affordable units
in the last five years when compared to the level of overall new housing units produced.

For reference, the average total development costs for each unit constructed in these affordable
housing projects totaled approximately $260,000. The average City-subsidy required per affordable
unit was approximately $25,000.

5
Housing Affordability – Income Levels and Real Estate Market Analysis

In addition to production of new affordable housing units, two critical components to understanding
housing affordability in our City is to understand the real estate market dynamics of existing
housing stock as well as the income levels of our residents.

The primary sources for income and housing data are the United States Census, including the
Decennial Census and the American Community Survey, and U.S. Department of Housing and
Urban Development (HUD). HUD publishes City/Metro Adjusted Median Income data annually,
based on the American Community Survey data, and DCED anticipates this data will be available
for the Cincinnati Metro area in April 2022. Release of the full 2020 Decennial Census results have
been delayed due to COVID-19, but this information presents a unique and valuable data source for
understanding the current state of the City’s housing market. Once available the Department of
City Planning and Engagement will complete a by-neighborhood analysis to include Occupied
Housing Units, Age of Units, Housing Values, Renter Occupied Units, Rent Levels, and Income
levels. This additional income and housing data analysis will be provided as a follow-up to this
report.

cc: William Weber, Assistant City Manager

Eric Jamison, Director of the Office of Performance and Data Analytics
Markiea Carter, Director of the Department of Community and Economic Development