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Section 7.2 Sample Proportions: Chapter 7: Sampling Distributions

This section discusses the sampling distribution of a sample proportion p. As sample size n increases, the sampling distribution becomes approximately normal. For the normal approximation to be valid, the conditions np ≥ 10 and n(1-p) ≥ 10 must be satisfied. The mean of the sampling distribution is the population proportion p, and the standard deviation is the square root of (p(1-p)/n). Several examples are provided to illustrate calculating probabilities for the sampling distribution.

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158 views22 pages

Section 7.2 Sample Proportions: Chapter 7: Sampling Distributions

This section discusses the sampling distribution of a sample proportion p. As sample size n increases, the sampling distribution becomes approximately normal. For the normal approximation to be valid, the conditions np ≥ 10 and n(1-p) ≥ 10 must be satisfied. The mean of the sampling distribution is the population proportion p, and the standard deviation is the square root of (p(1-p)/n). Several examples are provided to illustrate calculating probabilities for the sampling distribution.

Uploaded by

Grace Li
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Section 7.

2
Sample Proportions

Chapter 7: Sampling Distributions


7.1
What is a Sampling Distribution

7.2
Chapter 7 Sample Proportions
Sampling
Distribution

7.3
Sample Means
Learning Objectives

After this section, you should be able to…

üINTERPRET a confidence level


üINTERPRET a confidence interval in context
üDESCRIBE how a confidence interval gives a range of plausible values for the
parameter
üDESCRIBE the inference conditions necessary to construct confidence intervals
üEXPLAIN practical issues that can affect the interpretation of a confidence interval
The Sampling Distribution of

n ≤ "#% N

As n increases, the sampling distribution becomes


approximately Normal.
Normal condition is satisfied:
np ≥ 10 and n(1 – p) ≥ 10.
The Sampling Distribution of
1. The proportion of orange candies to p = 0.45
P=0.45 P=0.45
N = 25 N = 50

P=0.15 P=0.15
N = 25 N = 50

Number
Of Samples
= 400
The Sampling Distribution of
The Sampling Distribution of
The Sampling Distribution of

Sampling Distribution of a Sample Proportion

As n increases, the sampling distribution becomes approximately Normal. Before you perform
Normal calculations, check that the Normal condition is satisfied: np ≥ 10 and n(1 – p) ≥ 10.
The Sampling Distribution of
In Chapter 6, we learned that the mean and standard deviation of a binomial random
variable X are

Transformation

As sample size increases, the spread decreases.


Revision: Binomial Distributions
Normal Approximation for Binomial Distributions
Suppose that X has the binomial distribution with n trials and success probability p. When n is large, the
distribution of X is approximately Normal with mean and standard deviation

As a rule of thumb, we will use the Normal approximation when n is so large that

np ≥ 10 and n(1 – p) ≥ 10

That is, the expected number of successes and failures are both at least 10.

Sampling Without Replacement Condition


When taking an SRS of size n from a population of size N, we can use a binomial distribution to model the
count of successes in the sample as long as
The Sampling Distribution of
Example
A polling organization asks an SRS of 1500 first-year college students how far
away their home is. Suppose that 35% of all first-year students actually attend
college within 50 miles of home. What is the probability that the random sample
of 1500 students will give a result within 2 percentage points of this true value?
Example
STATE: We want to find the probability that the sample proportion falls between 0.33 and 0.37
(within 2 percentage points, or 0.02, of 0.35).
PLAN: We have an SRS of size n = 1500 drawn from a population in which the proportion p =
0.35 attend college within 50 miles of home.

DO: Since np = 1500(0.35) = 525 and n(1 – p) = 1500(0.65)=975 are


both greater than 10, we’ll standardize and then use Table A to find
the desired probability.

SUMMARY: The probability that the sample proportion falls between 0.33 and 0.37 is 0.8968.
Problem 1

Which of the following is a true statement?


(A) The larger the sample, the larger the spread in the sampling distribution.
(B) Bias has to do with the spread of a sampling distribution.
(C) Provided that the population size is significantly greater than the sample size, the
spread of the sampling distribution does not depend on the population size.
(D) Sample parameters are used to make inferences about population statistics.
(E) Statistics from smaller samples have less variability.
Problem 2

Which of the following is a true statement?


(A) The sampling distribution of "̂ has a mean equal to the population proportion p.

(B) The sampling distribution of "̂ has a standard deviation equal to #"(1 − ")
(C) The sampling distribution of "̂ has a standard deviation that becomes larger as the
sample size becomes larger.
(D) The sampling distribution of "̂ is considered close to normal provided that n ≥ 30.
(E) The sampling distribution of "̂ is always close to normal.
Problem 3

In a school of 2500 students, the students in an AP Statistics class are planning a random
survey of 100 students to estimate the proportion who would rather drop lacrosse rather
than band during this time of severe budget cuts. Their teacher suggests instead to survey
200 students in order to
(A) reduce bias.
(B) reduce variability.
(C) increase bias.
(D) increase variability.
(E) make possible stratification between lacrosse and band.
Problem 4

Which of the following is the best reason that the sample maximum is not used as an
estimator for the population maximum?
(A) The sample maximum is biased.
(B) The sampling distribution of the sample maximum is not binomial.
(C) The sampling distribution of the sample maximum is not normal.
(D) The sampling distribution of the sample maximum has too large a standard deviation.
(E) The sample mean plus three sample standard deviations gives a much superior estimate for
the population maximum.
Problem 5

Thirty-four percent of Americans say that math is the most important subject in school.
In a random sample of 400 Americans, what is the that between 30% and 35% will say
that math is the most important subject?
(A) 0.291
(B) 0.337
(C) 0.382
(D) 0.618
(E) 0.709
Problem 6
Researchers found that in the aftermath of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, 12% of the
pale grass blue butterfly larvae developed mutations as adults. What is the probability that in
a random sample of 300 of these butterfly larvae, more than 15 developed mutations as
adults?

".$%&".$' ".$'&".$%
(A) P (z > ) (B) P (z > )
(".$%)(".**)/,"" (".$%)(".**)/,""

".$%&".$' ".$'&".$%
(C) P (z > ) (D) P (z > (".$%)(".**)/ ,"")
(".$')(".**)/,""

".$%&".$'
(E) P (z > (".$')(".**)/ ,"")
Problem 7

When selecting a random sample from a population , which of the following


combinations of n and p satisfies the conditions for the sampling distribution of p to be
approximately normal ?
( A ) n = 10 and p = 0 . 67
( B ) n = 25 and p = 0 . 32
( C ) n = 50 and p = 0 . 18
( D ) n = 75 and p = 0 . 15
( E ) n = 100 and p = 0 . 08
Problem 8
A study is to be performed to estimate the proportion of voters who believe the
economy is " heading in the right direction . " Which of the following pairs of sample
size and population proportion p will result in the smallest variance for the sampling
distribution of "̂
( A ) n = 100 and p = 0 . 1
( B ) n = 100 and p = 0 . 5
( C ) n = 100 and p = 0 . 99
( D ) n = 1000 and p = 0.1
( E ) n = 1000 and p = 0 . 5

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