Ch 2 Reliability Factors

Chapter 2
RELIABILITY FACTORS

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Ch 2 Reliability Factors

2.1 Reliability Function

Definition of Reliability: probability of a product or
item or system to continue to perform its intended
functions during a periode of time.
Normally measured by MTBF.

 Reliability function, R(t) may be expressed as


R ( t )  1  F ( t )   f ( t ) dt
0

where F(t) is the probability of system failure by time t, and t is a

random variable with a density function f(t).
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 Ch 2 Reliability Factors

 Assuming that the time variable is described by an exponential

density function, the reliability function is transformed to *)

  u  t
R (t )    e 1
du  e
t

where e is the natural logarithm base, t is the time of interest,

and  is the mean life.

*) This is equivalent to making the assumption that the number of failures

occurring during a time interval are Poisson distributed. The two distribution
are the same, except that the exponential distribution is continuous (time)
and the Poisson distribution is discrete (number of failures).
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Ch 2 Reliability Factors

 Mean life  refers to average lifetimes of all items under consideration

and is equal to Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) for the
exponential time density function (t). The reciprocal of MTBF
expresses the instantaneous failure rate (). Therefore, the reliability
function with an exponential time density can also be expressed as:

R(t )  e  t / MTBF  e  t
 Assuming an exponential density function for the time variable best
represent a scenario where the failure is essentially constant over the
useful system operating life time. This is frequently assumed during
the course of reliability analysis and predictions.
 While variable failure rates are experienced during the infant mortality
and wear-out periods of a system life cycle, the constant failure rate
assumption often work well after the system attains a steady state of
operation. Please see the next figure!
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 Ch 2 Reliability Factors

Constant failure rate

Exponent failure law applies
Decreasing Increasing
failure rate failure rate

Fig. 1 Three region in bathtub curve

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Ch 2 Reliability Factors

2.2. Failure rate and MTBF

 Failure rate and MTBF are the most commonly used reliability
measures.
 Failure rate,  simply refers to the frequency of failures, or rate
at which failures occur over a unit interval of time.
 It may be expressed in terms of number of failures per hour or
per million hours, or of percent failures per 1000 hours.
 Failure rate ,  is defined as

number of failures

total operating hours

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 Ch 2 Reliability Factors

Example 1:
Suppose 10 units of product were tested under specified operating
conditions where the test time is 600 hours, and assume that failed units
are not repaired. Failures occur as follows:
Unit 1 failed after 75 jam Unit 4 failed after 325 jam
Unit 2 failed after 125 jam Unit 5 failed after 525 jam
Unit 3 failed after 130 jam
Five units successfully completed the test cycle.

Solution:
Failure rate (), in number failures per hour, can be expressed as
5

75  125  130  325  525  5(600)
5
  0 ,001196
4180
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Ch 2 Reliability Factors

Example 2:
Consider a given system with operating cycle as shown in the following
figure. The total operating time in this case is 152 hours and the system
fails a total of six times as indicated. What is the failure rate of the
system?
Maintenance Actions

Down Time
2.1 hr 7.1 hr 4.2 hr 1.8 hr 3.5 hr 8.3 hr

24.2 hr 7.1 hr 27.4 hr 35.3 hr 6.3 hr 46.7 hr 5.0 hr

Operating Time

System Operational Cycle – 179 Hours

Fig. 2 Example of system operation

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 Ch 2 Reliability Factors

Solution:
The failure rate per hours is

6
  0.03947
152

Further, assuming an exponential time density function, the system

mean life or the MTBF is

1 1
MTBF    25,3357 jam
 0,03947

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Ch 2 Reliability Factors

Example 3:
A system accumulates 32 failures over a 10,000 hours operating time
period. What is the system failure rate, MTBF, and reliability?

Solution:
Using the formulas given previously, we have

Time of Observation, t Reliability

32 (hours) (%)
Failure rate ,    0 ,0032
10000 0 100.00
50 85.21
1 1 100 72.62
MTBF    312 ,5 jam
 0 ,0032 150 61.88
200 52.73
 t  0 .0032 t
R( t )  e e 250 44.93
500 20.19
1000 4.08

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 Ch 2 Reliability Factors

2.3 Series, Parallel and Combined Network

 The concept of the reliability and failures rates can be applied
at the component level to compute reliability measures at the
system level.

 Components within a system, depending upon their

functionality, can be assumed to conform to a series network,
parallel network, or a combination of both.

 This network becomes more understandable in a reliability

block diagram.

 Network with all components in series are the simplest to

analyze and the combination networks are the most difficult to
analyze.
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Ch 2 Reliability Factors

Seri Network
Component 1 Component 2 Component n

The system-level failures rate, s is

s   ,i i  1, 2 , , n

The system-level MTBF is

1
MTBF s 
( 1
MTBF 1  1
MTBF 2  1
MTBF n )

System Reliability, Rs

R s  R1 R 2  R n  e  (  1   2    n )t
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 Ch 2 Reliability Factors

Parallel Network
Component 1

Component 2


Component n

The system reliability can be expresses as

R p  1  (1  R 1 )(1  R 2 )  (1  R n )
If all components have the same reliability of R, then the system-level reliability
becomes

R p  1  (1  R )n
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Ch 2 Reliability Factors

Combination Network

Komponen a Komponen e

Komponen b Komponen d Komponen f

Komponen c Komponen g

The system-level reliability for the figure above is

RT  [R p1 )][Rs ][R p 2 ]
where
Rs  Rd R p1  [1  (1  Ra )(1 Rb )(1  Rc )]

R p 2  [1  (1  Re )(1 Rf )(1  Rg )]

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 Ch 2 Reliability Factors

Example 4:
A system consists of 3 sub-assemblies. The individual sub-assembly
reliability are R1 = 97 %, R2 = 89 %, R3 = 92 %.
What is the overall system reliability if the sub-assembly are connected
(a) in series and (b) parallels?

Solution:
(a) R  R R  R  ( 0 .97 )( 0 .89 )( 0 .92 )
s 1 2 3

R s  0 ,7942 atau sebesar 79,42 %

(b) R p  1  ( 1  R1 )( 1 R 2 )( 1  R 3 )
 1  ( 1  0 ,97 )( 1  0 ,89 )( 1  0 ,92 )
 1  ( 0 ,03 )( 0 ,11 )( 0 ,08 )
R p  0 ,999736 atau sebesar 99,97%

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Ch 2 Reliability Factors

Example 5:
Determine the reliability of the network bellow with given individual reliability
values
Component B
Component E
Component A Component C Component G
Component F
Component D
RA = 0,90 RE = 0,80
RB = 0,80 RF = 0,80
RC = 0,70 Component A
RG = 0,90
RD = 0,90

Solution:
The sub system reliability are.
RBCD  [ 1  ( 1  RB )( 1 RC )( 1  RD )]
 [ 1  ( 1  0,8 )( 1  0,7 )( 1  0,9 )]
 0,994

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 Ch 2 Reliability Factors

REF  [ 1  ( 1  RE )( 1 RF )]  [ 1  ( 1  0,8 )( 1  0,8 )]

 0,96

RBCDEF  RBCD REF  ( 0,994 )( 0,96 )

RBCDEF  0,95424

R ABCDEFAG  ( R A )[ 1  ( 1  RBCDEF )( 1  R A )]( RG )

 ( 0,90 )[ 1  ( 1  0,95424 )( 1  0,900 )]( 0,9 )
 ( 0,90 )( 0,995424 )( 0,90 )
R ABCDEFAG  0,806293

So, the system-level reliability is 80,63 %

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Ch 2 Reliability Factors

2.4. Probability of Survival

 The probability of system survival or mission success (Ps) may be defined
as the ratio of number of successful trials or missions to the total number of
trials, including those that failed or were aborted.
 Ps may also be expressed as the probability of ZERO system failures during
a certain time interval t, or

Ps  R( t )  e  t
where e-t is the first term in a Poisson expansion series and represents the
probability of ZERO failures or aborts during the time interval, t.
A constant failure rate is assumed in the above equation.
 Extending the discussion to an operational system with a backup, the
applicable equations is
N
(t ) n  t
Ps  e  t
 e ; N  number of backup
n 1 n!
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 Ch 2 Reliability Factors

Example 6:
A system with a failure rate of 0.005 failures/hours is called upon
for a mission involving 5 hours of operation. What is the
probability of mission success? Is this the same as system
reliability?

Solution:
Using the equations for the probability of survival.

R  e   t  e 0,005 ( 5 )
 97 ,53 %
The system reliability is

Ps  e   t  e 0 ,005 ( 5 )
 97 ,53 %
Thus, the probability of survival is the same as system reliability
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Ch 2 Reliability Factors

Example 7:
Assume that a system has a reliability of 0.778, and that the
value of t = 0,25. Also, the system is supported by two identical
backups. Determine the probability of system survival or mission!

Solution:
By using the equation for the probability of survival, we have:

 t ( t )2 e  t
 t
Ps  e  (t )e 
2!
 0,25 2 
 0,778 1  0,25    0,778(1,2813)
 2 ! 
 0,9968
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 Ch 2 Reliability Factors

Exercise Problems:
1. Ten units are tested to failure. Failures occur after 20, 40, 62, 78, 94,
112, 132, 142, 145, and 175 hours. What is the unit failure rate?
2. Twelve units are tested for 100 hours. Failed units are not repaired.
Failures occur after 6, 14, 22, 48, 80, and 96 hours. What is the unit
failure rate?
3. A system with an overall system level MTBF equal to 120 hours is to be
operated for 2.6 hours. What is the system reliability?
4. If a system has reliability equal to 0.80 is to be operated continuously
for a time of 1.5 hours, what is the expected failure rate?
5. Over period of 10 years, a system successfully completes 985 mission
and experience only 15 aborts. What is the probability of mission
success?

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Ch 2 Reliability Factors

REFERENCES
 Benjamin S. Blanchard, Denish Verma, Elmer L. Peterson,
“Maintainability: A key to effective serviceability and
maintenance management”, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1995.

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