Pagtanaw 2050

PAGTANAW 2050
THE PHILIPPINE FORESIGHT

Science • Technology • Innovation
© National Academy of Science and Technology, Philippines (2021)
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Pagtanaw 2050: The Philippine Foresight on Science, Technology, and Innovation

ISBN 978-621-8073-19-7
PAGTANAW 2050
THE PHILIPPINE FORESIGHT
Science • Technology • Innovation
PAGTANAW 2050
Initiated by Secretary Fortunato T. de la Peña

of the Department of Science and Technology.
v
TABLE OF CONTENTS
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PAGTANAW 2050
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Foreword.......................................................................................................................... i
Preface...........................................................................................................................iii
Acknowledgments........................................................................................................... v
List of Tables...................................................................................................................ix
List of Figures.................................................................................................................xi
List of Acronyms............................................................................................................xv
Executive Summary....................................................................................................... xxi
Section 1. The Making of the 30-Year Science, Techology, and Innovation

Foresight and Strategic Plan.................................................................1
1.1. The Science, TechnoIogy, and Innovation Foresight Framework................................... 2
1.2. The Science, TechnoIogy, and Innovation Foresight of Other Countries........................ 8
1.3. Science and Technology Indicators on Competitiveness and Innovation.................... 12
1.4. Times Higher Education, Quacquarelli-Symonds Rankings of Philippine HEIs
and Scopus Indexed Rankings................................................................................ 18
1.5. The Philippine Innovation System............................................................................ 24
1.6. Geographic Features and Natural Resource Endowments.......................................... 34
1.7. Demographics and Development............................................................................. 48
Section 2. Megatrends: From COVID-19 to Space and Beyond........................ 59

2.1. Megatrends in Population, Migration, Poverty, and Inequality.................................... 60
2.2. Climate Change and Exploitation of Natural Resources: Pollution, Global
Warming, and Increase in Extreme Weather Events.................................................. 67
2.3. Navigating the New Globalization: The Philippine Perspective................................... 77
2.4. Space Exploration................................................................................................... 87
Section 3. Setting Sights on the Future: Philippine Goals and Aspirations........ 90

3.1. The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and Future Earth Philippines...... 91
3.2. Development Plans: Sociopolitical Issues, Filipino Aspirations, and Science,
Technology, and Innovation.................................................................................... 96
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Section 4. Facets of Philippine Science, Technology, and Innovation............. 110

4.1. The Blue Economy................................................................................................ 111
4.2. Governance.......................................................................................................... 117
4.3. Business and Trade............................................................................................... 121
4.4. Information and Communications Technology........................................................ 128
4.5. Science Education and Talent Retention................................................................. 136
4.6. Food Security and Nutrition................................................................................... 147
4.7. Health Systems.................................................................................................... 161
4.8. Energy.................................................................................................................. 173
4.9. Water................................................................................................................... 186
4.10. Environment and Climate Change........................................................................ 193
4.11. Shelter, Transportation, and Other Infrastructure................................................... 202
4.12. Space Exploration............................................................................................... 214
Section 5. Uncertainties, Risks, Shocks, and Black Swans........................... 221
Section 6. A Roadmap to the Future......................................................... 229

6.1. Delphi Surveys, Technology Clusters, and Foresighting........................................... 230
6.2. The Science, Technology, and Innovation Roadmap................................................ 233
Section 7. Ensuring Continuity and Relevance........................................... 259

7.1. Periodic Reviews of the Foresight.......................................................................... 260
7.2. Foresighting Exercises with ASEAN and Beyond..................................................... 266
7.3. Concluding Statements......................................................................................... 269
References........................................................................................ 271
Appendix........................................................................................... 319
List of Technologies per Operational Area..................................................................... 320
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PAGTANAW 2050
FOREWORD
The Department of Science and Technology (DOST) has always stood at the
forefront of the country’s scientific and technological advancement, with the
National Academy of Science and Technology, Philippines (NAST PHL) serving
to honor and promote the nation’s science capital towards developing a truly
Filipino productive science culture.
This complement came to my mind when, in 2018, I was invited by the

Akademi Sains Malaysia (ASM) on the occasion of the Akademi’s presentation
of its “Malaysia’s Outlook 2050”to their Prime Minister. Inspired by the ASM’s
notable output, I challenged the NAST PHL to undertake a similar Foresight
study for Science, Technology, and Innovation (STI) in our own country. The
NAST PHL proposal to develop a 30-year STI Foresight, including strategic
plans, was quickly approved for funding by the DOST Executive Committee
the following year. The NAST PHL was able to complete the first and second
versions of the country’s STI Foresight document, aptly entitled Pagtanaw—or
“looking ahead”—2050, even despite the technical and other unprecedented
difficulties brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Pagtanaw 2050 includes a compendium of STI megatrends; global and

national societal goals; transdisciplinary and interdisciplinary operational
areas; and current and emerging technologies relevant to the nation’s
development. A backcast from our shared vision of a desired future three
decades hence to the pre- and peri-pandemic situation of today revealed
valuable insights that suggest significant drivers of change and plausible
STI development paths, moving forward. These pathways are laid out in
Pagtanaw 2050’s STI Roadmap, a guide to national development that traces
the trajectories of the enablers, drivers, and opportunities that are seen to
shape Philippine STI for the next three decades.
This Foresight document is firmly grounded on the Filipino people’s

aspirations within the context of our natural and physical endowments—an
archipelago with abundant marine resources—as well as our shared Filipino
values and skills, and other potentials as contained in our Constitution and
other national institutions. By harnessing these strengths and potentials, we
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FOREWORD
look forward to growing into an economically vibrant and outward-oriented

“Prosperous Maritime Archipelago”.
My thanks goes out to NAST PHL President Academician Rhodora Azanza,

the Foresight Project Leader; Academician William Padolina, chair of the
Foresight Steering Committee; the members of the Steering Committee itself,
comprised of National Scientists and past secretaries of the DOST; and so
many others in the science community, stakeholders who contributed to the
making of this NAST-PHL STI Foresight document. It is indeed an undertaking
of immense responsibility, a decisive furthering of the aspirations of the
DOST and the NAST PHL for a progressive Philippines anchored on science in
service of the people.
This NAST-PHL initiative is a big step towards designing and implementing

integrated yet time-specific strategies for a prosperous, inclusive, and agile
Philippine future.
Honorable Fortunato T. De La Peña

Secretary
Department of Science and Technology
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PAGTANAW 2050
PREFACE
Despite a brief period of fast-paced economic growth in the first decades of

the 21st century, the Philippines still lags behind its neighbors in Southeast
Asia and is leagues behind the most competitive and best governed societies
in the region and the rest of the world. The country also has yet to achieve
most of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, which are part of
a global call to action to end poverty, protect the planet, and ensure that all
people experience peace and prosperity.
The Philippines faces two major challenges in relation to inclusive growth and
competitiveness, and to being mainstreamed into the global economy: first,
the internal need to address the science, technology, and innovation (STI)
support required by the country’s burgeoning population; and secondly, the
need to address the continuing gaps in the level of science and technology
(S&T) between the Philippines and other advanced countries.
Both these hurdles are key areas of concern for the National Academy of
Science and Technology, Philippines (NAST PHL), which is mandated to
advise the President and his Cabinet on S&T matters. We firmly recognize that
decisions about the Filipino people and Philippine society should be based on
evidence and logical analysis, hence the urgency of crafting this Foresight in
order to forward our vision of a progressive Philippines anchored in science.
We embarked on the development of a Philippine foresight and strategic
plan for the next three decades (2019–2050) in order to address the country’s
future needs and demand for scientific and technological interventions.
This document is the first solid step in this journey of progress. We are proud
and honored to have been able to rally this collective effort from various
stakeholders, public and private, from all across the country.
The main goal of this Foresight document, entitled Pagtanaw 2050 “looking
(
ahead”), is to chart a strategic path by anticipating the factors that will
influence the development of the Philippines’scientific capital in the
years leading up to 2050. It is based on a rigorous evaluation of key trends
in science, technology, and innovation (STI) in the Philippine setting. It is
meant to serve as a planning device towards achieving concrete goals and
iii
Preface
designing strategic plans that shall transcend political periods whilst aiming
for inclusive growth, sustainability, and competitiveness in STI.
Herein is a compendium of megatrends; global and national societal goals;

and transdisciplinary/interdisciplinary operational areas, including current
and emerging technologies with consideration of the pre-, peri-, and post-
pandemic period. We delve into probable and significant drivers of change,
and provide insights and reflections on the plausible development paths to
the achievement of Filipino aspirations as expressed in the 1987 Philippine
Constitution; the various Philippine Development Plans; the United Nations
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs); the Department of Science and
Technology Harmonized National Research and Development Agenda; and
AmBisyon Natin 2040, which was conducted in 2016, just four years before the
pandemic.
It is the conclusion of the NAST PHL and the recommendation of this

Foresight that the above aspirations can be achieved by acknowledging
and enhancing our existence as a Prosperous Archipelagic, Maritime
Nation, diplomatically asserting our rights over the resources in our marine
environment.
To that end, we have identified 12 key operational areas, namely: Blue

Economy; Governance; Business and Trade; Digital Transformation and
Information and Communications Technology; Science Education and
Talent Retention; Food Security and Nutrition; Health Systems; Energy;
Water; Environment and Climate Change; Shelter, Transportation, and Other
Infrastructure; and Space Exploration. It is our hope that with this Foresight,
we can achieve the S&T aspirations of the Filipino people by 2050.
Pagtanaw 2050 would not have been possible without the assistance and
guidance of the Department of Science and Technology and its various
attached agencies, particularly the project monitoring agency, the Philippine
Council for Agriculture, Aquatic and Natural Resources Research and
Development. We are continually indebted to the Hon. Fortunato T. De La
Peña, Usec. Rowena Cristina L. Guevara, Usec. Renato U. Solidum Jr., and
Usec. Sancho A. Mabborang for their trust and support of this Foresight.
Rhodora V. Azanza, Ph.D.

President
National Academy of Science and Technology, Philippines
September 20, 2021
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PAGTANAW 2050
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Project Leader: Academician (Acd.) Rhodora V. Azanza; Chair of the Steering

Committee: Acd. William G. Padolina; Members of the Steering Committee:
National Scientist (NS) Ernesto O. Domingo, NS Raul V. Fabella, NS Emil Q.
Javier, Acd. Estrella F. Alabastro, Acd. Filemon A. Uriarte, Jr., Acd. Reynaldo B.
Vea;
Division Heads of the Academy: NS Raul V. Fabella, Acd. Rhodora V. Azanza,

Acd. Fabian M. Dayrit, Acd. Jaime C. Montoya, Acd. Eufemio T. Rasco, Jr., Acd.
Reynaldo B. Vea;
Editorial Board: Acd. Rhodora V. Azanza, Acd. William G. Padolina, Timothy

James M. Dimacali, Louise Antonette S. Villanueva, Alma Anonas-Carpio,
Guada B. Ramos-Dimaya, Reihvelle A. Perez, Ryan John P. Pascual, Byron
Terenz D. Leaño; Consulting Editor: Ann Maureen R. Rouhi Graphic Artists:
Julius Sempio, Jerome Suplemento II; Layout Artists: Vince Aren B. Cortez,
Ladylove May B. Baurile, Ruth Ann D. Recto, Janelle R. Tenorio, Angelito A.
Navarro, Archimedes Aristotle Franco, Vince Nathaniel Dominguiano, Leyoneil
Latina, Jana Clarice Ocampo, Sairah Mae Saipudin, Martin Raphael Advincula,
Noreen Kristia Rojales;
Writers of the Sections on Science, Technology, and Innovation (STI)

Operational Areas: NS Angel C. Alcala, NS Lourdes J. Cruz, Acd. Arsenio
M. Balisacan, Acd. Allan Benedict I. Bernardo, Acd. Jose B. Cruz, Jr., Acd.
Rex Victor O. Cruz, Acd. Alvin B. Culaba, Acd. Glenn B. Gregorio, Acd. Marie
Antonette Juinio-Meñez, Acd. Rodel D. Lasco, Acd. Aura C. Matias, Acd.
Mahar K. Mangahas, Acd. Christopher P. Monterola, Acd. Benito M. Pacheco,
Acd. Juan M. Pulhin, Acd. Agnes C. Rola, Acd. Mudjekeewis D. Santos, Acd.
Guillermo Q. Tabios III, Acd. Michael L. Tan, Acd. Raymond Girard R. Tan, Acd.
William T. Torres, Acd. Cesar L. Villanoy, CM Josefino C. Comiso, CM Gonzalo C.
Serafica, Lita S. Suerte-Felipe, Glen A. Imbang, Jonathan Wilson L. Salvacion,
Rene A. Abesamis, Rico C. Ancog, Jayeel S. Cornelio, Clarissa C. David, Laura T.
David, Geoffrey M. Ducanes, Wilfredo A. Dumale, Dixon T. Gevaña, Felino P.
Lansigan, Erika Fille T. Legara, Joel Joseph S. Marciano, Jr., Ronald U.
Mendoza, Gay Jane P. Perez, Majah Leah V. Ravago, Maribel L. Dionisio-Sese,
Aristotle T. Ubando, Krista Danielle S. Yu, Jose Rafael A. Marfori;
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Members of the Academy who participated in the Workshops and Focused

Group Discussions: Acd. Christopher Bernido, Acd. Charlotte M. Chiong, Acd.
Gisela P. Concepcion, Acd. Libertado C. Cruz, Acd. Virginia C. Cuevas, Acd.
Antonio Miguel L. Dans, Acd. Arnel N. del Barrio, Acd. Ceferino P. Maala, Acd.
Maribel G. Nonato, Acd. Carmencita D. Padilla, Acd. Jurgenne H. Primavera,
Acd. Asuncion K. Raymundo, Acd. Caesar A. Saloma, Acd. Edward H.M. Wang,
Acd. Rody G. Sy;
Members of the Outstanding Young Scientists, Inc. who participated

in the Workshops and Focused Group Discussions: Frolan A. Aya, Melito
A. Baccay, Glenn S. Banaguas, Leslie Michelle M. Dalmacio, Eva Maria C.
Cutiongco-de la Paz, Wilfredo A. Dumale, Aimee Lynn Barrion-Dupo, Merdelyn
T. Caasi-Lit, Rodel G. Maghirang, Merlyn S. Mendioro, Nathaniel S. Orillaza,
Jr., Michael Angelo B. Promentilla, Cynthia P. Saloma, Raymond Francis R.
Sarmiento, Glenn L. Sia Su, Roel R. Suralta, Marcos Valdez Jr., John Paul C.
Vergara;
Representatives from the following government and Higher Education

Institutions: Ateneo de Manila University, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas,
Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources, Capitol University, Climate
Change Commission, Dangerous Drugs Board, Department of Budget and
Management, Commission on Filipinos Overseas, De La Salle University,
Department of Agrarian Reform, Department of Education, Department of
Environment and Natural Resources, Department of Finance, Department of
Foreign Affairs, Department of Health, Department of Human Settlements and
Urban Development, Department of Science and Technology, Department
of Social Welfare and Development, Department of Trade and Industry,
Department of Information and Communications Technology, Department
of Interior and Local Government, Department of Labor and Employment,
Department of Public Works and Highways, Environmental and Climate
Research Institute, Mapua University Manila, Movie and Television Review
and Classification Board, National Academy of Science and Technology,
Philippines, National Commission for Culture and the Arts, National
Economic and Development Authority, National Fisheries Research and
Development Institute, National Historical Commission of the Philippines,
National Intelligence Coordinating Agency, National Research Council of the
Philippines, National Library of the Philippines, National Telehealth Center,
Office of Civil Defense, Office of the Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process,
Philippine Association of Colleges and Universities, Philippine Association
of State Universities and Colleges, Philippine Council for Agriculture,
Aquatic and Natural Resources Research and Development, Philippine Drug
Enforcement Agency, Philippine General Hospital, Presidential Management
Staff, Philippine Rice Research Institute, Philippine Space Agency, Philippine
Sports Commission, Technical Education and Skills Development Authority,
Technological Institute of the Philippines, University of the Philippines
Diliman, University of the Philippines Los Baños, University of the Philippines
Manila, Urban Ecosystems Research Division;
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PAGTANAW 2050
Representatives from the following non-government organizations

and other sectors: Center for Engaged Foresight, Cropital, East-West Seed,
Management Association of the Philippines, National Confederation of Family
Farmer Organizations, Philippine Academy of Young Scientists, Philippine
College of Physicians, Philippine Chamber of Food and Agriculture Inc.,
Philippine Obstetrical and Gynecological Society, Qualimed Health Network,
UNILAB, Inc., World Agroforestry Centre, Young Professionals for Agricultural
Development Philippines;
The following who participated as facilitators in some foresight

workshops and focused group discussions: Shermon O. Cruz, Glen A.
Imbang, Segundo Joaquin E. Romero, Jonathan Winston L. Salvacion;
NAST PHL Director: Luningning E. Samarita-Domingo; Members of the

NAST PHL Secretariat: Guada B. Ramos-Dimaya, Dexter Lorma A. Bautista,
Reihvelle A. Perez, Ladylove May B. Baurile, Luigi A. Dahonog, Imee G. Delos
Reyes, Larrisse O. Lipit, Angelito A. Navarro, Ryan John P. Pascual, Ruth Ann D.
Recto, Janelle R. Reyes, Nathalia Joy Garcia;
STI Foresight Research Assistants: Sherlane T. Buendia, Ann Charise D.

Cariño, Geneva Carla S. Chavez, Byron Terenz D. Leaño, Glizdale N. Lo, and
Valerie Shayne V. Olfindo.
vii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
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PAGTANAW 2050
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1.1_1. Profiles of Delphi Survey Respondents..................................................... 6

Table 1.2_1. Foresight Reports of Japan, Korea, and Malaysia....................................... 9
Table 1.3_1. Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) for ASEAN Countries (2010- 2019) –
Overall Rank ................................................................................................ 13
Table 1.3_2. Global Innovation Index (GII) for ASEAN Countries (2010- 2019) – Overall
Rank .......................................................................................................... 14
Table 1.3_3. Ranking of the Seven Pillars of Innovation for the Philippines..................... 14
Table 1.3_4. Parameters of the WEG GCR Innovation Index for the Philippines................ 16
Table 1.4_1. THE World University Ranking of Selected Philipinne HEIs 2017–2021......... 19
Table 1.4_2. THE World University Rankings Criteria.................................................. 20
Table 1.4_3. The Quacquarelli Symonds World University Ranking of Selected Philippine
HEIs 2010-2021............................................................................................ 21
Table 1.4_4. Quacquarelli Symonds World University Ranking Criteria........................... 21
Table 1.4_5. Regional Ranking of Asian Countries Based on the Number of Publications
in Scopus Indexed Journals, 1996–2019........................................................... 22
Table 1.5_1. R&D Budget of Government Departments Based on Unified Accounts Code
Structure, 2017–2021.................................................................................... 27
Table 1.6_1. Estimated Metallic Mineral Reserves from Year 2014 to 2018..................... 41
Table 1.6_2. Ecosystem and Biodiversity Values (PhP Billion)...................................... 42
Table 1.6_3. Volume of Fisheries Production by Sector, Philippines : 2016-2018 in
metric tons.................................................................................................. 46
Table 1.7_1. Population Projection by Age Group, Philippines: 2020–2045..................... 49
Table 1.7_2. Household Population for Ages 15 Years Old and Above by Highest Grade
Completed, Philippines: 2013-2017 (In Thousands)............................................. 50
Table 1.7_3. First Semester Per Capita Poverty Threshold and Poverty Incidence among
Families with Measures of Precision, by Region and Province: 2015 and 2018.......... 52
Table 4.1_1. Current Blue Industries in the Philippines.............................................. 113
Table 4.1_2. List of Emerging Technologies for Sustainable Philippine Blue Economy.... 114
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List of Tables
Table 4.3_1. Top 10 Philippine Exports to All Trading Partners as of September 2020
Year-on-Year Growth.................................................................................... 123
Table 4.3_2. Top 10 Philippine Imports from All Trading September 2020.................... 124
Table 4.4_1. Result of Survey to Filipino Households on Access to Electricity, Radio,
Television, Telephone/Cellphone, and Internet as of 2019................................... 129
Table 4.6_1. Average Projected Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture Globally and
in the Philippines, 2030 and 2050.................................................................. 152
Table 4.8_1. Power Supply and Demand Indicators in Selected Asian Countries, 2014.... 174
Table 4.8_2. Total Installed and Dependable Capacity per Technology, in MW............... 176
Table 4.8_3. Generation Mix, in GWh..................................................................... 177
Table 4.11.3_1. Product/System/Technology on the Horizon for Shelter,
Transportation, and Other Infrastructure ......................................................... 208
Table 4.11.4_1. Policies and Futures for Shelter, Transportation, and Other
Infrastructure with Reference to the SDGs....................................................... 212
Table 6.1_1. Top Three Answers in the Delphi Survey Questions................................. 222
Table 6.2_1. Proposed Phased Development of STI in Food, Nutrition and Health.......... 235
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PAGTANAW 2050
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1.1_1. The NAST PHL STI Foresight Framework: Pagtanaw 2050.......................... 3
Figure 1.1_2. Inputs and Outputs of the NAST PHL STI Foresight Framework:
Pagtanaw 2050.............................................................................................. 4
Figure 1.3_1. Ranking and Trend of the Twelve Pillars of Competitiveness of the
Philippines.................................................................................................. 13
Figure 1.5_1. DOST’s Harmonized National R&D Agenda (HNRDA) ............................... 26
Figure 1.5_2. The Four Components of the DOST S4C Program.................................... 29
Figure 1.5_3. DOST-assisted Niche Centers in the Regions.......................................... 30
Figure 1.6_1. Location of the Philippines Relative to Southeast Asia and
Surrounding Bodies of Water.......................................................................... 35
Figure 1.6_2. Climate in the Philippines................................................................... 36
Figure 1.6_3. Historical and Projected Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Philippines as
of December 2020........................................................................................ 37
Figure 1.6_4. Map Showing Trenches Bounding the Philippine Mobile Belt..................... 38
Figure 1.6_5. Schematic of Major Ocean Currents Within Philippine Waters During
the Northeast Monsoon, and Southwest Monsoon.............................................. 39
Figure 1.6_6. Mean Sea Surface Temperature and Chlorophyll a Concentration
Averaged over 2003–2019.............................................................................. 40
Figure 1.6_7. Forest Cover of the Philippines............................................................ 41
Figure 1.6_8. Location of Marine Protected Areas in the Philippines............................. 45
Figure 1.7_1. Average Annual Family Income by Region, 2016 – 2018........................... 51
Figure 1.7_2. Level of Urbanization by Region in 2010 and 2015.................................. 56
Figure 2.2_1. Observed Trends in Annual Total Rainfall and Extreme Rainfall in the
Philippines During the Period 1951–2010.......................................................... 68
Figure 2.2_2. Air Temperature Anomaly in the Philippines from 1951 to the Present......... 69
Figure 2.2_3. Annual Number of Tropical Cyclones in the Philippines from 1951
to 2015....................................................................................................... 69
Figure 2.2_4. A Time Graph Showing Typical Changes in Land Use Due to Human
Settlement and Expansion.............................................................................. 70
xi
List of Figures
Figure 2.3_1. Flows of Goods, Services, and Finance as % of GDP................................ 78

Figure 2.3_2. Cross-border Bandwidth Growth Data................................................... 79
Figure 2.3_3. Digital Platforms Interconnecting People and Firms Across Borders........... 79
Figure 2.4_1. Selected Sectors that Benefit from Socio-economic Effects Derived
from Space Investments................................................................................ 88
Figure 3.1_1. The 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2030.......... 92
Figure 3.1_2. The Future Earth Philippines Program and the Attainment of SDGs ............ 92
Figure 3.2_1. Philippine Poverty Incidence and the Gini Index, 1997 to 2018................. 102
Figure 4.3_1. The Sectors and Sub-Sectors of the Philippine Economy........................ 122
Figure 4.3_2. Selected Statistics on Major Economic Sectors, 2018 CPBI.................... 122
Figure 4.5_1. Number of R&D Personnel and Researchers in the Regions, 2011 and 2013.142
Figure 4.6_1. Historical and Average Projected Agricultural Crop Yields, With and
Without Climate Change, 1970–2050.............................................................. 151
Figure 4.6_2. Consequences of Consumer Choice of Food and Packaging................... 155
Figure 4.6_3. Examples of Proposed Key Priority Areas for Research and
Technologies in Agriculture.......................................................................... 157
Figure 4.6_4. Comparison Between the Typical Filipino Diet and Different Versions
of the Planetary Health Diet.......................................................................... 158
Figure 4.7_1. Health Group Problem Tree Analysis Output from the STI Foresight
SWOT and TOWS Workshop on 22-23 October 2020 .......................................... 163
Figure 4.7_2. The Top 68 STIs Identified in the Delphi Activity Covering All of the
Eight Identified Priority Areas........................................................................ 165
Figure 4.8_1. Generation Mix Before and After Enhanced Community Quarantine.......... 175
Figure 4.8_2. Average Supply and Total System Requirement (Energy + Reserve).......... 176
Figure 4.8_3. Clean Energy Technology................................................................. 180
Figure 4.8_4. Total Final Energy Consumption by Sector (2016), Percentage Shares...... 181
Figure 4.8_5. Total Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Shares (2016).......................... 181
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PAGTANAW 2050
Figure 4.8_6. Total Final Energy Consumption by Sector (2016), Percentage Shares...... 182
Figure 4.8_7. Total Final Energy Consumption by Sector (2000–2040)........................ 183
Figure 4.8_8. Total Final Energy Consumption by Fuel (2000–2040)............................ 183
Figure 4.9_1. Projected Regional Supply and Demand Situation, in thousand cubic
meters (2005–2025)................................................................................... 188
Figure 4.9_2. Clean Water Technologies for Future Needs......................................... 190
Figure 4.10_1. Projected Air Temperatures for the Philippines with Climate Change....... 194
Figure 4.10_2. Projected Seasonal Change in Rainfall in the Philippines for the Mid-
21st Century (2036–2065) Relative to the Baseline Period of 1971–2000............... 194
Figure 4.10_3. Summary of Science, Technology, and Innovation for Sustainable
Use, Climate Change Action, and Disaster Risk Reduction for Terrestrial,
Coastal, and Marine Ecosystems................................................................... 197
Figure 4.10_4. Fisherfolk Count per square kilometer of Municipal Waters................... 201
Figure 4.12_1. Near to Medium Term Capability Roadmap in Satellites and
Upstream Space Development....................................................................... 216
Figure 4.12_2. Near to Medium Term Capability Roadmap in Space Data
Downstream Utilization and Development....................................................... 218
Figure 6.2_1. Integrated STI Roadmap................................................................... 223
Figure 6.2_2. Environment, Climate Change, and Space Exploration Cluster Map........... 226
Figure 6.2_3. Food, Nutrition, and Health Cluster Map.............................................. 228
Figure 6.2_4. Energy and Water Cluster Map.......................................................... 238
Figure 6.2_5. Built Environments Cluster Map......................................................... 239
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List of Figures
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PAGTANAW 2050
LIST OF ACRONYMS
Acronym Meaning Acronym Meaning

1IR First Industrial Revolution BoC Bureau of Customs
2IR Second Industrial Revolution BOL Bangsamoro Organic Law
3IR Third Industrial Revolution BPO Business Process Outsourcing

Agriculture, Aquatic and Natural Budgetary Support to Government
AANR BSGC
Resources Corporations
ABNJ Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction Comprehensive Agrarian Reform
CARP
Program
ADB Asian Development Bank
CAT scans or CT
Computerized Axial Tomography
ADMU Ateneo De Manila University scans
AFP Armed Forces of the Philippines CCC Climate Change Commission
AI Artificial Intelligence CCGT Close Cycle Gas-turbine
AQMF Air Quality Management Fund CHED Commission on Higher Education
AR Augmented Reality CHW Community health worker
Access to Resources and Innovations Convention on International Trade in

ARISE CITES
in Science Education Endangered Species
Autonomous Region of Muslim cleantech Clean Technology
ARMM
Mindanao (see BARMM)
CLSU Central Luzon State University
Advanced Research Projects Agency
ARPANET CoE College of Engineering
Network
Academic Ranking of World COVID-19 Coronavirus Disease 2019
ARWU
Universities
Collaborative Research and
Association of Southeast Asian CRADLE Development to Leverage Philippine
ASEAN
Nations Economy
Association of Southeast Asian
ASEAN CS College of Science
Nations
ASM Akademi Sains Malaysia CW Constructed Wetlands
Accelerated Science and Technology DA Department of Agriculture

ASTHRDP Human Resource Development Development Academy of the
Program DAP
Philippines
AUV Autonomous Underwater Vehicle DATOS Remote Sensing and Data Science
Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in
BARMM DECS Digital Ecosystem
Muslim Mindanao
Department of Environment and
Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic DENR
Natural Resources
BFAR-NFRDI Resources - National Fisheries
Research and Development Institute DepEd Department of Education
Business Innovation through Science Department of Information and
BIST DICT
and Technology Communications Technology
Department of Interior and Local
DILG
Government
xv
List of Acronyms

DLSU De La Salle University FIC Fully Immunized Child
DND Department of National Defense FIES Family Income and Expenditure Survey
DOE Department of Energy FIRe Fourth Industrial Revolution
DOF Department of Finance FMB Forest Management Bureau
DOH Department of Health FO Forward Osmosis
DOLE Department of Labor and Employment Foreign/Filipino Science and
FSTPs Technology Professionals/
Department of Science and Practitioners
DOST
Technology
General Appropriations Act also
DOTr Department of Transportation GAA
known as National Budget
Department of Public Works and GCI Global Competitiveness Index
DPWH
Highways
GCR Global Competitiveness Report
Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate
DRR CCA
Change Adaptation GDP Gross Domestic Product
DT Digital Twin GDP Gross Domestic Product
DTE Digitally Transformed Entity GFAs Government Funding Agencies
DTI Department of Trade and Industry GHG Greenhouse Gas
DTP Digital Teaching Platform GII Global Innovation Index
DX Digital Transformation GIS Geographic Information System
ECS Extended Continental Shelf GMO Genetically modified organism
EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone GPG Global Public Good
EGDI E-government Development Index GRDP Gross Regional Domestic Product
EGDI E-government Development Index GRP Government Regulatory Processes
EMB Environmental Management Bureau Gt Gigaton
EMO Earth and Marine Observation GVA Gross Value Added
EOS Earth Observing Systems HAPS High Altitude Platform Systems
EPI E-participation index HDI Human Development Index
Electric Power Industry Management
EPIMB HEI Higher Education Institution
Bureau
Electric Power Industry Reform Act HIC High Income Country
EPIRA
of 2001
HIT Health Information Technology
ERD Energy Recovery Devices
Human Immunodeficiency Virus/
HIV/AIDS
ESA European Space Agency Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
Engineering Science and Education Harmonized National Research and

ESEP HNRDA
Project Development Agenda
Emerging Science, Engineering and HPSR Health Policy and Systems Research
ESET
Technology
HRH Human Resources for Health
EST Environmentally Sound Technology
IAS Immersive Authentic Simulation
EU European Union
ICM Integrated Coastal Management
FAO Food and Agricultural Organization
Information and Communications
ICT
FEC Filipinovation Entrepreneurship Corps Technology
Information, Education, and
FEPP Future Earth Philippines Program IEC
Communication
FGD Focus Group Discussion Institute of Electrical and Electronics
IEEE
Engineers
xvi
PAGTANAW 2050

International Food Policy Research LMIC Low- and Middle-Income Country
IFPRI
Institute
LMS Learning Management System
Intellectual Property Management
IMPACT Program for Academic Institutions maglev magnetic levitation
Commercializing Technologies
MDG Millennium Development Goal
IMTA Integrated multi-trophic aquaculture
MF Microfiltration
Institut Européen d'Administration des
INSEAD
Affaires MGI McKinsey Global Institute
Institut Européen d'Administration des MGR Marine Genetic Resources
INSEAD
Affaires
MILF Moro Islamic Liberation Front
IOM Integrated Ocean Management
MNR Ministry of Natural Resources
IoT Internet of Things
Moderate Resolution Imaging
IP Intellectual Property MODIS
Spectroradiometer
Intergovernmental Science-Policy MPA or MPAs Marine Protected Areas
IPBES Platform on Biodiversity and
Ecosystem Services MR Mixed Reality
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate MRA Mutual Recognition Agreements
IPCC
Change
MRP Malnutrition Reduction Program
IPR Intellectual Property Rights
MSME Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprise
ISA International Seabed Authority
MSP Marine Spatial Planning
ISIS Islamic State of Iraq and Syria
International Organization for MSW Municipal Solid Wastes
ISO
Standardization MSY Maximum Sustainable Yield
IT Information Technology
MTOE Millions of Tonnes of Oil Equivalent
Intergovernmental Technical Panel
ITPS MVNO Mobile Virtual Network Operator
on Soils
ITS Intelligent Transport Systems NAPC National Anti-Poverty Commission
International Telecommunications National Aeronautics and Space

ITU NASA
Union Administration
Illegal, Unregulated and Unreported National Academy of Science and
IUUF NAST PHL
Fishing Technology, Philippines
IWB Interactive Whiteboard NCD Non-Communicable Disease
JAXA Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency NCR National Capital Region
Japan International Cooperation National Disaster Risk Reduction and

JICA NDRRMC
Agency Management Council
JRC Joint Research Centre National Economic and Development

NEDA
Authority
K-12 From kindergarten to 12th grade
NF Nanofiltration
KAPs Knowledge to Action Programs
KIG Kalayaan Island Group Next Generation Digital Learning

NGDLE
Environment
Korean Institute of Science and
KISTEP NGO National Government Organization
Technology Policy
kph kilometers per hour NGP National Greening Program
LAN Local Area Network National Integrated Basic Research

NIBRA
Agenda
LED Light Emitting Diode
Niche Centers in the Regions for
NICER
LGU Local Government Unit Research and Development
Light Detection and Ranging National Institute for Science and

LIDAR NISMED
(Technology) Mathematics Education Development
xvii
List of Acronyms

National Institute of Science and Program for International Student
NISTEP PISA
Technology Policy Assessment
NLP Natural Language Processing PMB Philippine Mobile Belt
Nationwide Operational Assessment POPCEN Census of Population
NOAH
of Hazards
PPH Precision Public Health
NPHW Non-Physician Health Workforce
PRO Pressure Retarded Osmosis
NQI National Quality Infrastructure
PSA Philippine Statistics Authority
National Research Council of the
NRCP
Philippines QS Quacquarelli Symonds
National System of Technical
NSTVET R&D Research and Development
Vocational Education and Training
RA Republic Act
NTFP Non-Timber Forest Product
RDF Refuse-derived fuel
NWRB National Water Resources Board
Research and development
OCGT Open Cycle Gas-turbine RDI
institutions
ODA Overseas Development Assistance Research and Development
RDLead
Organization for Economic Leadership
OECD
Cooperation and Development RE Renewable Energy
OTEC Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion RFID Radio-Frequency Identification
Presidential Anti-Corruption
PAAC RIIC Regional Inclusive Innovation Center
Commission
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical RO Reverse Osmosis
PAGASA and Astronomical Services ROV Remotely operated underwater vehicle
Administration
Philippine Council for Agriculture, RPA Robotic Process Automation
PCAARRD Aquatic and Natural Resources RPS Renewable Portfolio Standard
Research and Development
RSE Research Engineers and Scientist
PCC Philippine Carabao Center
Philippine Council for Health Research RSM Regional Scientific Meeting
PCHRD
and Development S&T Science and Technology
Philippine Council for Industry, Energy
PCIEERD and Emerging Technology Research S4C Science for Change
and Development. SDG Sustainable Development Goal
PCP Primary Care Physician
SDN Software-Defined Networking
PDP Philippine Development Plan Southeast Asian Ministers of
Partnerships in Environmental SEAMEO- Education Organization - Regional
PEMSEA INNOTECH Center for Educational Innovation and
Management for the Seas of East Asia
Technology
Philippine Government University
PGUIRR
Industry Research Roundtable SEC Specific Energy Consumption
PHC Primary Health Care UN System of Environmental-
SEEA
Economic Accounting
PHD Planetary Health Diet
Small Enterprise Technology
SETUP
PHILRICE Philippine Rice Research Institute Upgrading Program
PhilSA Philippine Space Agency SK Sangguniang Kabataan
Philippine Wealth Accounting and the SLR Sea Level Rise

Phil-WAVES
Valuation of Ecosystem Services
SMEs Small and Medium Enterprises
Philippine Institute of Volcanology
PHIVOLCS
and Seismology SOC Soil Organic Carbon
PHNET Philippine Network Foundation, Inc. SRA Social Reform Agenda
PIA Philippine Innovation Act SST Sea Surface Temperature
xviii
PAGTANAW 2050

Space and Science and Technology UV Ultraviolet (rays)
SSTA
Applications
VOC Volatile Organic Compound
Sustained Support for Local Space
STAMINA4Space
Technology and Applications Mastery, VR Virtual Reality
Program
Innovation and Advancement program
WEF World Economic Forum
Science, Technology and Engineering-
STE schools
Implementing schools WEP Western Equatorial Pacific
Science, Technology, Engineering and WESM Wholesale Electricity Spot Market
STEM
Mathematics
WFH Work from Home
STI Science, Technology, and Innovation
WFO Work from Office
SUC State Universities and College
Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, WHO World Health Organization
SWOT
and Threats WiFi Wireless Fidelity
SWRO sea water reverse osmosis World Intellectual Property
WIPO
Telephony and Data Communications Organization
TELCO
Provider WWT Wastewater Treatment
Technical Education and Skills
TESDA
Development Authority
TFEC Total Final Energy Consumption
THE Times Higher Education
TISEC Tidal Instream Energy Conversion
TOD transit-oriented development

Threats, Opportunities, Weaknesses,
TOWS
and Strengths
TPES Total Primary Energy Supply
UAV or UAVs Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
UF Ultrafiltration
UHC Universal Health Care
UN United Nations
United Nations Economic and Social
UN ECOSOC
Council
United Nations Convention on
UNCBD
Biological Diversity
United Nations Convention to Combat
UNCCD
Desertification
United Nations Convention on the Law
UNCLOS
of the Sea
United Nations Conference on Trade
UNCTAD
and Development
United Nations Development
UNDP
Programme
United Nations Educational, Scientific,
UNESCO
and Cultural Organization
UP University of the Philippines
United States Agency for International
USAID
Government
USD US Dollars
UST University of Santo Tomas
xix
List of Acronyms
xx
PAGTANAW 2050
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Towards a Prosperous, Archipelagic,

Maritime Nation
As the Philippines moves into the future, it faces challenges both old and new:
the country continues to struggle with poverty alleviation even as it faces the
challenges of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic as well as the looming threats
of climate change and regional geopolitics, among others. In 2018 alone, it is
estimated that close to one out of every five Filipinos lives below the poverty
line. Meanwhile, the country’s population is expected to burgeon from some
110 million people as of this writing to over 144 million by 2050. Science,
technology, and innovation (STI) will be fundamental in addressing these
complex and interrelated problems—hence the need for this Pagtanaw 2050.
This Foresight underscores the archipelagic nature of our country and its
implications and potentials for development: with 220 million hectares of
marine environment and 29.8 million hectares of land, the Philippines’many
societies and cultures have been mostly coastal in nature. Moreover, some
60% of the population resides along the coast, with a long history of use
of the marine environment and resources. The observations, aspirations,
and recommendations contained in this Foresight are firmly grounded on a
shared vision of a Prosperous, Archipelagic, Maritime Nation.
The full measure of the intellectual weight of the National Academy of Science
and Technology’s experts, thought leaders, and allies across various fields has
been brought to bear on this Foresight. We are thankful for the copious time
that they volunteered and their in-depth participation in the many phases of
this project—from comprehensive reference scanning and the Delphi method,
to focused group discussions and scenario planning, and beyond. From these
emerged many diverse perspectives, trends, opportunities, and particularly
valuable insights on STI at both the national and international levels.
xxi
Executive Summary
Marine Resources, Maritime Heritage, and

Science, Technology, and Innovation
We look back on our long maritime history and close relationship with the
marine environment, from our precolonial balangays of centuries ago to
today, with respect and an eye to the future. STI empowers our maritime
traditions to encompass both the old and new: for example, a multi-hull
“trimaran”boat, inspired by traditional designs yet powered by hybrid
sources, was recently designed and built locally for passenger and cargo
transport. Such innovations, informed by local culture and traditions but
with modernity and the future in mind, should be further encouraged and
supported towards the realization of a comprehensive Philippine Nautical
Highway. The judicious planning and development of land, coastal, and
marine resources through STI can facilitate the economical and efficient
operation of shipbuilding and other industries. Further, our vast marine
waters lend themselves perfectly to renewable energy initiatives that tap
into waves, tides, thermal vents, and other natural marine resources. And,
though our societies have progressed over the centuries, our vulnerabilities
have only escalated: fisheries, aquaculture, and coastal industries are beset
by increasingly severe seasonal typhoons. Climate change impacts such
as stronger winds, excessive rainfall, and ocean acidification have made
things worse. This situation is further aggravated by physical impairments
from land reclamation and from chemical and solid waste pollution from
watersheds. These problems call for integrated and harmonious planning
and development via a“Highlands-to-Oceans“ approach to land, coastal,
and marine management, which should be a top government priority.
The modernization of Philippine fisheries and aquaculture and the proper
maintenance of Marine Protected Areas, are extremely potent in increasing
marine productivity and the well-being of marine biodiversity. For example,
our Marine Genetic Resources (MGRs)— situated as they are within the Coral
Triangle, a global center of marine biodiversity—can potentially produce
novel biologically active compounds for various pharmaceutical and other
purposes. MGRs from marine organisms like bacteria, fungi, algae, other
plants, and animals should thus be screened, studied, and isolated for drugs
that have anti-pain, anti-infection, and anti-cancer effects. Further, while the
extraction of minerals and other materials from our seas could be profitable
and gainful if sustainably managed, other benefits and costs—to both the
public and private sector—should be factored into the calculus of their
exploitation.
The Philippines also boasts almost a hundred seaports—all of which,

though invaluable to society and the economy, could still be improved
and modernized in order to make them disaster resilient. We also need to
strengthen national maritime standards and compliance with regional and
global maritime agreements and international maritime conventions; and
embark on the development of a Coastal and Inland Waterways Transport
System and a Maritime Innovation and Knowledge Center, among others.
xxii
PAGTANAW 2050
In this Foresight, we have framed the nation’s aspirations firmly within

the context of our natural and physical endowments—an archipelago with
abundant marine resources—as well as our shared Filipino values and skill
sets, and other potentials. This STI Foresight builds on current national
aspirations and goals as outlined in the 1987 Philippine Constitution,
AmBisyon Natin 2040, the Philippine Development Plans, the United Nations
(UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and the DOST Harmonized
National Research and Development Agenda (HNRDA).
Key Operational Areas, Clusters, and

Foresighting
At the core of this Foresight are 12 key operational areas, outlined below,
which can enable the realization of our societal aspirations through a unified
STI agenda:
Blue Economy. The“blue economy”approach is imperative in

the Philippines, an archipelagic country with territorial seas that
are twice the size of its total land area. Scientific and technological
innovations are expected to play a crucial role in the preparation and
implementation of a comprehensive action plan for a National Coast
and Ocean Strategy.
Governance. Having effective and well-governed institutions are

essential to establishing an environment of high rates of investment
and improved workforce performance in both the public and private
sectors. Strategic technologies can be harnessed for both the
government and private sectors to provide quality services, minimize
human errors, reduce unreasonable bureaucratic procedures
and unnecessary expense, and ultimately achieve administrative
efficiency and timely response.
Business and Trade. While the Philippines has yet to establish

a track record of translating scientific research into commercial
products, the prospects can be improved dramatically by considering
the business community’s fundamental capacity as both beneficiary
and enabler of innovation. In particular, we should provide a level
playing field for our agriculture, industry and service sectors whose
processes are especially friendly to innovation and research and
development (R&D). However, this will not happen if the high cost of
doing business—which includes the cost of energy—stemming from
the poverty of public goods is allowed to persist.
Digital Technology/Information and Communications

Technology. In this section, information and communications
technology (ICT) is seen as a linchpin for achieving proficiency
in STI in the Philippines. The full realization of the benefits of ICT
will necessitate a shift towards a robust and accessible Digital
Ecosystem, in which Digitally Transformed entities interact with
xxiii
Executive Summary
each other, mutually benefit each other, and promote the greater
good. Technologies like blockchain, cognitive systems, robotics, and
quantum computing including last-mile connectivity to serve users in
rural and remote areas are required of this ecosystem.
Science Education and Talent Retention. The importance of the

Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) system
of education in producing competitive STEM talent in the Philippines
is vital in enhancing, maintaining, and monitoring the knowledge
infrastructure in STEM. We need to adopt new out-of-the-box
pedagogies that emphasize learning by doing.
Food Security and Nutrition. This operational area highlights the

ability of agriculture to increase and diversify production towards
the improved nutritional status of the population through new
and science-based food system paradigms. In order to achieve
desired nutritional outcomes, a sustainable food system should be
characterized by green and inclusive growth, economic and social
progress, and resilience to multiple risks.
Health Systems. Foresighting the Philippines’health STI is

anchored in achieving an efficiently working and properly funded
Universal Health Care Program, which addresses needs that are
real, palpable, and which immediately improve human lives. At
the moment of writing this Foresight, the Philippines’response is
focused towards managing the COVID-19 pandemic. Many of the
health system technologies accelerated by the pandemic are quite
useful for strengthening the healthcare delivery system.
Energy. Since the Philippines is dependent on imported fossil

fuel for its energy needs and the energy sector is among the major
contributors to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, it is
essential for the country to transition to clean and affordable energy
technologies to meet future needs. Priority should be given to solar,
wind, and ocean waves energy systems, energy storage, smart grids
and networks, biofuels, and energy from wastes.
Water. Water resources, water uses, and regional water quality,

demand and supply in the Philippines must be managed with regard
to their use for domestic water supply, irrigation, flood control,
power generation, and pollution control. Clean technologies will be
adopted to improve the delivery of affordable clean water, minimize
or prevent the production of wastewater effluents, and reduce the
cost of water and wastewater treatment.
Environment and Climate Change. The Philippines is a hazard-

prone country and periodically suffers from extreme weather
conditions, earthquakes, volcano eruptions, and other natural
hazards. It is also one of the countries that are most vulnerable
and at risk to climate change. Consistent with Goal 13 of the United
xxiv
PAGTANAW 2050
Nations' Sustainable Development Goals, the Philippines must adopt

global and local actions to combat climate change and manage
its impacts by strengthening resilience and adaptive capacity to
climate-related hazards and other natural hazards.
Shelter, Transportation, and Other Infrastructure. Secure shelter

and good transport facilities are minimum basic needs that are
fundamental to what Filipinos aspire for as “maginhawang buhay”
(comfortable life) and“panatag na buhay”(secure life), as discussed
in AmBisyon Natin 2040 and which still remains relevant within
the extended 30-year timeframe of the Foresight. Considering the
archipelagic setting and maritime nature of the country, the national
aspiration to balance urban and rural development can only be
achieved through the improvement of ports, roll-on-roll-off facilities,
expressway and road networks, and public transport, coupled with a
strategic combination of various water, land, and air transportation
modes. Shelter is needed in different forms as residence, refuge, and
building as a vital component in organizing smart communities in
both urban and rural settings.
Space Exploration. Space-based technologies have important

applications in communications, weather forecasting, disaster
management, natural resources and land use management, and in
monitoring the environment. Current upstream and downstream
space initiatives and future plans on space technologies must
continue to be enhanced.
To facilitate the foresighting process, the above operational areas were

grouped into four clusters that underscore their interrelatedness and
interconnectivity: Food, Nutrition, and Health; Water and Energy;
Environment and Space Exploration; and Built Environments. Over and
above these clusters, the operational areas of Digital Technology/ICT, Blue
Economy, Business and Trade, Climate Change, Governance, and Science
Education and Talent Retention are considered critical influencers and
enablers that cut across all operational areas.
The“Blue Economy”is an overarching operational area that highlights the

Philippines’inherently archipelagic nature and resources, pointing towards
the sustainable use of marine resources—living and non-living—for the
improvement of people’s livelihoods while preserving the overall health of
our marine ecosystems.
‘Black Swans’ and Hope for the Future

Integrative and future-responsive resilience is fundamental to this Foresight,
as it should be for all development plans now and into perpetuity. Particularly
relevant to this Foresight is the careful consideration and development of
upcoming STI for the provision of goods and services; and land, coastal,
and marine planning. This proactive stance is vital not just for anticipated
crises such as typhoons and earthquakes, but also for unforeseen crises
xxv
Executive Summary
such as pandemic outbreaks and threats to water safety and security—all of

which can all too easily stem from the mismanagement of marine and other
resources. Hence, we include in this Foresight a cautionary but optimistic
note on Black Swans: the threat of unpredictable future shocks—whether
truly exogenous or stemming from the country’s still developing institutional
framework, human capital, and innovation capacity—can be subverted
into positive drivers and opportunities: the proper development and
implementation of plans to meet long-term integrative goals can do this.
In this regard, it is imperative to have proper governance at all levels and

a whole-of-government approach anchored in STI and doing away with
“business as usual”approaches at every turn. This necessitates a
comprehensive and iterative review of laws, policies, and guidelines, so
as to eliminate gaps, contradictions, and redundancies on the way to
inclusive Philippine prosperity that makes full sustainable use of our natural
endowments.
Strategically Mapping the Future

This STI Foresight would be incomplete without an STI Roadmap to
guide national development toward our preferred future. This unified and
integrated map can be broken down into four complementary sub-maps—
one for each of the previously-mentioned technology clusters—that visually
trace the foresighted trajectories of the enablers, drivers, and opportunities
that are seen to shape Philippine STI for the next three decades.
Given the current pandemic, the Food, Nutrition, and Health map highlights
the present emphasis on harnessing technologies towards providing
universal healthcare and ensuring affordable and nutritious food through a
transformation of food systems practices; artificial intelligence and ICT are
seen to eventually play dominant roles in decision-making for health and
nutrition. The roadmap for Energy and Water sees the emerging dominance of
low-cost, large-scale renewable energy technologies and sources. Meanwhile,
the map for Environment and Space Exploration outlays the path towards an
improved capability to mitigate or altogether prevent natural hazards and
disasters by utilizing appropriate, adaptive, and clean/green technologies;
space technologies will play a key role in this regard, for monitoring large-
scale patterns for assessing climate resiliency and environmental protection.
Lastly, the Built Environments map plots the evolution of work and living
spaces through the measured adoption of construction- and transportation-
related technologies, such as smart materials and electric vehicles, all of
which will be interconnected via ICT such as the Internet of Things and
virtual/augmented reality.
Ultimately, the development of a globally-competitive Philippine knowledge

economy with a maritime base will enable the Philippines to finally break
out of its stagnation behind more scientifically-advanced nations, allowing
it to grow from a mere service economy into the Prosperous, Archipelagic,
Maritime Nation, united and inclusive as it was always meant to be.
xxvi
SECTION 1
The Making of the 30-Year Science,
Technology, and Innovation
Foresight and Strategic Plan
SECTION 1.1
THE SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND
INNOVATION FORESIGHT FRAMEWORK
A Foresight, as defined by the European Commission (2002) is“the

application of systematic, participatory, future intelligence gathering, and
medium-to-long-term vision-building processes to informing present-day
decisions and mobilizing joint actions. It brings together key agents of change
and various sources of knowledge in order to develop strategic visions and
anticipatory intelligence.”
With this in mind, the National Academy of Science and Technology,

Philippines (NAST PHL) undertook Pagtanaw 2050, a foresight project
consisting of a Philippine-focused science, technology, and innovation (STI)
strategic plans and roadmaps covering a period of 30 years from 2019-2050.
United and Inclusive, Prosperous, and

Sustainable Archipelagic, Maritime
Nation
This framework builds on aspirations and initiatives expressed in the 1987
Philippine Constitution, the past and present Philippine Development Plans,
the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 2015–2030,
the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) Harmonized National
Research and Development Agenda, and AmBisyon Natin 2040. Further
adjustments have been made in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and its
impact on the nation’s socioeconomic and political condition.
The aspirations embodied in the aforementioned references can be achieved

by actively building on our nation’s archipelagic resources and extensive
maritime heritage, even as we diplomatically assert our rights over our
surrounding marine environment. Such an archipelagic, maritime nation
should care for its citizens by fostering unity, inclusivity, prosperity, and
sustainability through STI.
2
PAGTANAW 2050
The objectives of this STI Foresight are as follows:
• To present an insightful review of key trends, needs, and gaps in

STI as it relates to the inclusive growth and competitiveness of the
Philippines.
• To propose a 30-year strategic plan using available data and
information along with key targets/indicators, delivery mechanisms,
and policies gathered from various stakeholders.
• To establish an STI framework and 30-year strategic plan by
integrating transformative thinking, planning, monitoring, and
inclusive implementation towards an STI supported and encultured
Philippines.
The Foresight Process

The Foresight project involves participatory and inclusive ideation and
validation to explore diverse perspectives at the national and international
levels. A schematic overview of the NAST PHL STI Foresight Framework is
shown in Figure 1.1_1. A more detailed representation of expected Inputs and
the Outputs is in Figure 1.1_2.

Technology (ICT)
Science Education and
Talent Retention
Innovation
Figure 1.1_1. The NAST PHL STI Foresight Framework: Pagtanaw 2050
3
STI Foresight Framework
PAGTANAW 2050
A Prosperous, Archipelagic,
Maritime Nation
Figure 1.1_2. Inputs and Outputs of the NAST PHL STI Foresight Framework: Pagtanaw
2050
The proposed inputs and outputs herein are initial listings and may undergo
refinement and modification as the foresight exercise progresses through
the years. It is thus important to be able to determine the needs and trends,
opportunities, and drivers of change.
The inputs (Fig. 1.1_1 and Fig. 1.1_2) shall consist of the present and next-
generation tools that Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics
(STEM) and Emerging Technologies may provide to address the operational
areas by exploiting the synergies across technologies that will best contribute
to the realization of the aspirations in the following references:
• The 1987 Constitution of the Republic of the Philippines

• NEDA Report on AmBisyon Natin 2040 (NEDA 2016)
• Philippine Development Plans (NEDA 1987, 1993, 1999, 2004, 2011,
2017)
• RA 8425: An Act Institutionalizing the Social Reform and Poverty
Alleviation Program, Creating for the Purpose the National Anti-
Poverty Commission, Defining Its Powers and Functions, and for
Other Purposes (signed into law on 28 July 1997). This law defines
the components of the Minimum Basic Needs.
• DOST Harmonized National Research and Development Agenda
(DOST 2016)
• UN Sustainable Development Goals 2015-2030
4
PAGTANAW 2050
The outputs indicated in Figures 1.1_1 and Figure 1.1_2 were the results
of several data gathering and analytical methods. First, megatrends and
other relevant information on Philippine STI and foresight methods were
culled following a thorough review of available bibliometric sources. This
was followed by a series of workshops and meetings (from January 2020 to
March 2021) with experts and relevant stakeholders that considered futures
thinking/foresight methodology for Philippine STI and strategic, long-term,
comprehensive policy and action plans for inclusive development, security,
and governance.
The 2020 NAST PHL Annual Scientific Meeting (ASM) and Regional Scientific
Meetings (RSM) were of particular importance to this Foresight in that they
solicited and collated the perspectives of the broad scope of researchers and
topic experts that comprise the science community. Close to a thousand
participants attended each two-day meeting, which served as the initial
stakeholders’consultation on the operational areas of the STI foresight.
Paper presentations and commissioned papers from the ASM and RSMs
served as sources of data and information and recommendations for the STI
Foresight.
Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) & Threats,

Opportunities, Weaknesses, and Strengths (TOWS) Analysis. A SWOT
and TOWS workshop was undertaken involving the problem tree analysis
wherein the experts enumerated and discussed the causes (root), problems
(trunk), and effects or consequences (branches) for the identified science
and technology (S&T) areas. The SWOT paved the way for the internal and
external analyses of the National Innovation System wherein internal analysis
was done by enumerating the system’s strengths and weaknesses. External
analysis was made by reviewing political, economic, environmental, socio-
cultural, technological, and legal factors that could pose threats or provide
opportunities. Through TOWS, experts managed to determine ways to use
the strengths of the STI community to actualize opportunities and cope
with threats. Similarly, they also came up with ways to use opportunities in
minimizing weaknesses and use threats in correcting weaknesses.
Delphi Survey. A two-round Delphi survey was conducted to arrive at a

consensus on the following:
(1) Expected changes in aspirations outlined in AmBisyon Natin 2040

due to COVID-19 pandemic
(2) Sociocultural, technological, economic, environmental, and political
megatrends for consideration in the foresight
(3) Expected black swans or disruptions as Filipinos journey to 2050
(4) Additional areas for consideration in the foresight
(5) Perceived areas of current strength in Philippine STI
(6) Additional areas in the future that Philippine STI should be leading in
(7) Private and public institutional changes to enhance the role of STI in
development and the lives of Filipinos
(8) Talent development and retention in STI
5
STI Foresight Framework
(9) Harnessing STI in asserting our sovereignty and identity as a

maritime nation
(10) Public investments and interventions in STI to reduce poverty or the
conditions associated with poverty
A total of 243 respondents answered the first round of the Delphi survey,
while 206 managed to participate in the second round. Respondents came
from various academic institutions, civil society, government agencies,
government-owned and controlled corporations, government think tanks,
industry, international organizations, non-government organizations,
professional organizations, and research and development (R&D) institutions
(Table 1.1_1).
Table 1.1_1. Profiles of Delphi Survey Respondents by Institution

Round 1 Respondents Round 2 Respondents
Affiliation Frequency Affiliation Frequency

NAST PHL 46 NAST PHL 33
Outstanding Young Scientists, Inc. 18 Academe 97
Higher Education Institutions 40 Executive Department 8
DOST 33 Industry 9
Philippine American Academy of Science 37 International Organizations 3
and Engineering
Philippine Science High School 12 Non-Government Agencies/Organizations 45
Professional Organizations in the Basic 4 Others 7
Sciences Government Think Tanks 1
Private Business/Industries 7 Government Think Tanks 2
Professional Organizations 1
RDI 28 RDI 1
STEM Institutes/Organizations 8 Government-Owned and 1
Controlled Corporations
Food Industry 2
Law 1
Unknown 4 Civil Society 1
Others 4
Total 243 Total 202
Scenario Planning. In addition to the Delphi survey, the NAST PHL also
conducted scenario planning exercises for major STI operational areas,
which were then grouped into clusters based on their interrelatedness and
interactions (see Section 6.1), to wit:
Cluster I: Health, Food Systems, Nutrition

Cluster II: Energy and Water
Cluster III: Environment and Climate Change and Space Exploration
Cluster IV: Shelter, Transportation, and Other Infrastructure
In the said workshop, participants came up with a futures triangle, wherein

the pull factors of the future, push factors of the present, and weight of the
past were scrutinized. Drivers of change and potential threats were also
mapped in the process. Four scenarios were discussed: disowned futures,
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outlier futures, preferred futures, and integrated futures. The disowned

futures scenario showed more dysfunctions and unintended consequences
and was considered to result in an unsustainable and non-resilient future,
Meanwhile, the outlier futures scenario was described as a“strange, unusual,
and improbable”but somewhat“beautiful”future. The preferred scenario
was the one that the participants looked forward to by 2050. After discussing
these futures scenarios, the preferred and integrated futures scenarios
were used to guide the causal layered analysis wherein experts crafted a
hypothetical news headline and named underlying systems, worldviews,
myths and metaphors governing the clusters. The last step in the scenario
planning was the backcasting. This was necessary as this required the experts
to delineate steps that would help the country achieve the integrated futures
scenario per cluster.
7
SECTION 1.2
INNOVATION FORESIGHT OF OTHER
COUNTRIES
The quality and impact of decision-making are greatly improved by going

through an exercise in foresight. Foresight serves as a beacon light in the
preparation of strategies and prepares institutions and individuals to react to
the challenges that are yet to come (EFP 2010).
This section will analyze the foresight documents of Japan, South Korea, and
Malaysia. Due to constraints in the availability of the above reports in English,
we shall cover only the 10th Science and Technology (S&T) Foresight of
Japan (NISTEP 2015), the 5th Science and Technology Foresight (2016-2040)
of South Korea (KISTEP 2017), and the Science and Technology Foresight
Malaysia 2050 (ASM 2017).
Basis of the Foresight

All three S&T foresight reports were initiated and implemented by the
governments of the countries concerned. Japan has been engaged in S&T
foresight since 1971 and every five years thereafter, under the leadership
of the Science and Technology Foresight Center (Japan). For South Korea,
their S&T foresight was developed on a five-year interval in compliance
with Articles 13 and 22 of the“Framework Act on Science and Technology”,
while the Malaysian foresight report was derived from the Emerging Science,
Engineering &Technology (ESET) Study.
Societal Goals
The foresight reports all start with an assessment of the aspirations of their
respective citizenry as indicated in Table 1.2_1. Although they vary in terms
of their specific articulation, the reports cover the basic aspects of societal
well-being, such as health, food security, access to livelihood opportunities,
and concern about the impact of climate change and human activities on the
environment.
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Methodology
All three foresight exercises used more than one method to gather ideas
for their report (Table 1.2_1). The choice of methods regarding the scope of
foresight in S&T vary slightly among the three foresight reports. However,
the foresight reports of Japan, Korea, and Malaysia all indicated the use of
consultations with experts and other stakeholders.
Japan and Korea conducted Delphi surveys and undertook scenario-planning

for various topics. Korea used the tipping point method to narrow down their
technological choices. Malaysia relied primarily on working groups organized
by priority areas, and involved foreign institutions and experts, focusing
their discussions on five areas: biotechnology, digital technology, green
technology, nanotechnology, and neurotechnology.
The megatrends and uncertainties identified by the three countries can be

clustered into the following:
• increasing dominance of the digital age and the disruptive

technologies
• climate change
• concern for the impact of man’s activities on the environment
• impending global changes in the economic systems
• changing demographics especially the increase of ageing
communities
• and the rapid developments in international cooperation
Since all the three reports were written before the COVID-19 pandemic, there
is almost no reference to the same, or to the possible recovery activities when
the pandemic has been brought under control (Table 1.2_1).
Table 1.2_1. Foresight Reports of Japan, Korea, and Malaysia

Malaysia (2017) Science and
Korea (2017) Technology Foresight
The 5th Science and Malaysia 2050 Emerging
Japan (2015) Technology Foresight Science, Engineering, &
Components 10th S&T Foresight Plan (2016-2040) Technology (ESET) Study
Basis The Technology Foresight Survey Framework Act on Science and ESET Study focused on
has been conducted every five Technology Article 13 and Article biotechnology, digital technology,
years since 1971, engaging S&T 22 of the Enforcement Decree of green technology, nanotechnology,
experts in Japan to suggest the Framework Act on Science and neurotechnology.
a future path of technological and Technology (Science and
development in the next 30 years Technology Forecasting, etc.)
and to contribute to government
policy decision-making and
decisions on research allocation
in S&T. The survey is conducted
by the Science and Technology
Foresight Center.
9
THE STI FORESIGHT OF OTHER COUNTRIES
Table 1.2_1. Continued

Societal Goals/ • Connected society • Responsiveness to changes in • Make Malaysia a powerhouse
Aspirations • Knowledge-based and service- future social demand for high value chain activities in
oriented society • Development of science and Electrical and Electronics sector
• Healthy long-life society technology • Make Malaysia a regional leader in
• Sustainable regional society • Social Infrastructure, e.g., Agrotechnology and Agribusiness
• Manufacturing-based society nuclear safety, safety • Make Malaysia a premier global
• Resilient society infrastructure Halal hub
• Japan in global context • Ecosystem and environment • Ensure well-being and health of
friendliness, e.g., weaponization the people of Malaysia
of food, ecosystem change due • Accelerate socio-economic
to climate change transformation leveraging the
• Transportation and robotics, digital tsunami
e.g., unmanned vehicles, home • Move towards a low waste,
service robots resource-efficient society
• Medical and Life, e.g.,
new infectious diseases,
weaponization of vaccines
• Manufacturing and convergence,
e.g., new materials, transition
from traditional manufacturing
• Information and Communication
e.g., cybercrime, educational
system reform
Methodology • Visioning • Brainstorming • Working Groups: biotechnology,

• Delphi Survey • Delphi Survey digitla technology, green technology,
• Scenario Planning • Horizon scanning nanotechnology, neurotechnology
• Evaluation of importance, • Scenario Planning • Horizon scanning and bibliometrics
certainty/uncertainty, non- • Tipping Point Analysis • Surveys
continuity, morality, international • Social, Technological, • Strategic consultations
competitiveness, expected year Environmental, Economic, and • Engaged international and
for technology realization and Political (STEEP) analysis Malaysian experts
real-world implementation
• Challenges/Policy measures
Megatrends • Open science and innovation • Human Empowerment • Shift in global economic power
• Data science • Innovation through Hyper- • Emergence of disruptive technology
• Applied use of big data connectivity • Rapid urbanization
• Support for decision making • Deepening Environmental Risk • Demographic and social change
• Artificial Intelligence • Intensification of Social • Climate change
• Ethical, legal, and social Complexity • Global risks (extreme weather
implications (ELSI) issues • Reorganization of the Economic events, large-scale involuntary
• National security and safety, etc. System migration, natural disaster, terrorist
• Cyber-physical system enables attacks, data fraud or theft).
new coalescence of humans and
machines
• Information is automatically
analyzed and selected
• Aging population
• Collaborative start-up
• Occupation is free from physical
capability like aging and physical
disability
• New jobs
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Findings/ • Examined 312 items with high Indentified 287 technologies that • Identified 95 emerging
Recommendations importance are expected to emerge by 2040 technologies as reference to
• Combined scores for uncertainty and group them into 18 short-term facilitate discovery of new
and discontinuity to extract items issues, 14 short-to-mid-term issues, knowledge, advancing technology
within top 10% (30 items) and and 8 long-term issues. platforms and realizing innovation
bottom 10% (30 items) in the form of new products and
• Global competitiveness to finalize services and technologies for
the ranking to top 10% and bottom a harmonious, prosperous and
10% sustainable Malaysia.
• Developed timelines into present
Thematic scenarios include: future (2015-2020), probable future
(2021-2035), and possible future
• Advanced manufacturing platform (2036-2050).
• Future co-creating services
• Improvement of physical and
mental health towards realization
of a healthy, longevity society
• Maintaining food production and
ecosystem services by using
regional resources
• Resilient social infrastructure to
respond to large scale disasters
and aging population with fewer
children
• Energy, environment and
resources for a sustainable future
• Integrated scenarios form the
viewpoint of globalization
• S&T topics and thier forecaster
year of realization
Findings and Recommendations

Finally, the findings and recommendations of the reports consist primarily
of the inventory of technologies that are expected to be developed in
response to societal needs and interests. The foresight report of Japan listed
312 technologies of high importance and narrowed its list down to the top
and bottom 10%; Korea identified 287 technologies that are expected to be
available by 2040, and grouped those into short-term issues, short to medium
– term issues and into a very short list of eight long–term issues. Malaysia
identified 95 technologies that were finally narrowed down to 25.
The inventory of present and prospective technologies that could respond

to the unique societal needs of each of the three countries were gathered
into scenarios described in varying degrees of detail, including the list of
prioritized technologies expected to form the basis of a time-bound strategic
plan for developing and harnessing S&T to serve their needs.
11
SECTION 1.3
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
INDICATORS ON COMPETITIVENESS
AND INNOVATION
World Economic Forum Global

Competitiveness Index
The World Economic Forum (WEF) publishes the Global Competitiveness
Report annually to provide insights into the factors and attributes that drive
productivity, growth, and human development for over 140 countries. The
report also reviews promising policy options to achieve inclusive growth and
sustainability. The Global Competitive Index (GCI) is based on the data from
international organizations and the WEF’s Executive Opinion Survey. The
GCI is a comprehensive measure of the microeconomic and macroeconomic
foundations of national competitiveness. It uses 12 pillars to leverage points
in defining economic success (Dutta et al. 2020).
We observed a steady rise in the Philippines’overall rank from 2010 until

2016 when rankings began to decline (Table 1.3_1). In comparison with other
countries in Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), Singapore has
remained on the top rank, Malaysia in the top 30, Indonesia and Thailand in
the top 40. In 2019, the Philippines ranked 64th out of 141 economies, which
was eight ranks lower than the previous year (WEF 2019). Given the effects of
the pandemic, results for 2020 are expected to decline.
In the WEF Global Competitiveness Report of 2019, among the 12 pillars

of competitiveness (Figure 1.3_1), the three lowest-scored pillars of the
Philippines are in Health and Primary Education, Infrastructure, and
Technological Readiness. The Philippines appears to have performed well in
Market Size, Labor Market Efficiency, and Business Sophistication.
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Table 1.3_1. Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) for ASEAN Countries (2010-2019)
Overall Rank
Overall Ranking
Country
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Singapore 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 1
Malaysia 26 21 25 24 20 18 25 23 25 27
Brunei Darussalam 28 28 28 26 - - 58 46 62 56
Thailand 38 39 38 37 31 32 34 32 38 40
Indonesia 44 46 50 38 34 37 41 36 45 50
Philippines 85 75 65 59 52 47 57 56 56 64
Vietnam 59 65 75 70 68 56 60 55 77 67
Cambodia 109 97 85 88 95 90 89 94 110 106
10
30
50
Ranking
70
90
110
130
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Institutions Infrastructure Macroeconomic Environment
Health and Primary Education Higher Education and Training Good Markets Efficiency
Labor Market Efficiency Financial Market Development Technological Readiness
Market Size Business Sophistication Innovation
Rank
Pillar
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Institutions 125 117 94 79 67 77 91 94 101 87
Infrastructure 104 105 98 96 91 90 95 97 92 96
Macroeconomic Environment 68 54 36 46 26 24 20 22 43 55
Health and Primary Education 90 92 98 96 92 86 81 82 101 102
Higher Education and Training 73 71 64 67 64 63 56 55 67 67
Good Markets Efficiency 97 88 86 82 70 80 99 103 60 52
Labor Market Efficiency 111 113 103 100 91 82 86 84 36 39
Financial Market Development 75 71 58 48 49 48 48 52 39 43
Technological Readiness 95 83 79 77 69 68 83 83 67 88
Market Size 37 36 35 33 35 30 31 27 32 31
Business Sophistication 60 57 49 49 46 42 52 57 39 44
Innovation 111 108 94 69 52 48 62 65 67 72
Figure 1.3_1. Ranking and Trend of the Twelve Pillars of Competitiveness of the
Philippines
13
S&T INDICATORS ON COMPETITIVENESS AND INNOVATION
Global Innovation Index

The Global Innovation Index (GII) has been published annually since 2007, a
collaboration between Cornell University, Institut Europeen d’Administration
des Affaires (INSEAD), and the World Intellectual Property Organization
(WIPO). The GII report presents global innovation trends and the innovation
performance of 131 economies.
In 2019, out of 131 economies, the Philippines ranked 54th in innovation,

besting Indonesia, Brunei Darussalam, and Cambodia among ASEAN
countries (Table 1.3_2) (Dutta et al. 2020). In terms of the seven pillars of
innovation, the Philippines has shown a consistent rise in the pillars of
Knowledge and Technology Outputs and Business Sophistication (Table
1.3_3). A significant improvement in ranking is seen in the pillars of
Infrastructure and Creative Outputs.
It is to be noted that in 2019, the Philippines improved its GII significantly, but
declined in its ranking in the GCI.
Table 1.3_2. Global Innovation Index (GII) for ASEAN Countries (2010-2019)
– Overall Rank
Overall Ranking
Country
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Singapore 7 3 3 8 7 7 6 7 5 8
Malaysia 28 31 32 32 33 32 35 37 25 35
Brunei Darussalam 48 75 53 74 88 - - 71 67 71
Thailand 60 48 57 57 48 55 52 51 44 43
Vietnam 71 51 76 76 71 52 59 47 45 42
Philippines 76 91 95 90 100 83 74 73 73 54
Indonesia 72 99 100 85 87 97 88 87 85 85
Cambodia 102 111 129 110 106 91 95 101 98 98
Table 1.3_3. Ranking of the Seven Pillars of Innovation for the Philippines (2010-2019)
Rank
Pillar
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Institutions 106 101 132 128 108 102 88 89 93 89
Human Capital and Research 75 116 121 116 121 123 95 95 86 83

Infrastructure 103 68 69 78 94 83 72 72 67 58
Market Sophistication 107 98 106 95 93 101 94 92 100 110
Business Sophistication 81 61 72 96 113 81 74 45 44 32
Knowledge and Technology
32 76 59 61 68 53 44 42 49 31
Outputs
Creative Outputs 96 90 108 91 98 101 96 94 92 63
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United Nations Conference on Trade

and Development Readiness for Frontier
Technologies Index
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) (2021)
ranked 158 countries in a“Readiness for Frontier Technologies Index”based
on the following:
• Level of Information and Communications Technology (ICT)

infrastructure
• Skills to adopt and adapt frontier technologies
• Research and development (R&D) activity to adjust and modify
frontier technologies for local use
• Ongoing industry activities related to use, adoption and adaptation
of frontier technologies
• Access to finance by the private sector to accelerate the use,
adoption, and adaptation of frontier technologies
The Philippines ranked 44th, higher than all other ASEAN countries except
Malaysia, which ranked 31st. The top five countries, in descending order, were
the United States, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Sweden, and Singapore.
The report also notes that the Philippines has a high ranking in industry,
reflecting the high levels of foreign direct investments in high-technology
manufacturing, particularly electronics. Furthermore, the report cites the
existence of pro-business policies; the availability of a skilled, English-
speaking workforce; and the presence of a network of economic zones.
Although the top frontier-technology-ready countries are high-income

nations, there are outliers:“countries that perform better than their per
capita GDPs would suggest,”according to the report. This“overperformance”
is determined by calculating“the difference between the actual index
rankings and the estimated index ranking based on per capita income”.The
top overperformer is India, with a score of 65, followed by the Philippines
with a score of 57. The Ukraine, Vietnam, and China occupy the 3rd, 4th, and
5th spot, respectively.
The Philippines’ranking as the second highest overperforming country

in this report augurs well for the nation’s ability to take advantage of the
window of opportunity to harness frontier technologies towards increasing
productivity and creating more industries for employment and livelihood.
15
S&T INDICATORS ON COMPETITIVENESS AND INNOVATION
Critical Factors in Science and Technology

According to WEF, during the period 2010–2019, four factors were critical to
the improvement in the Science and Technology (S&T) domain. These were as
follows:
Innovation Capability. The first critical indicator for improving

competitiveness is the capacity for innovation (Table 1.3_4), since it is the
foundation of S&T development (WEF 2019). The sub-pillars of interaction
and diversity, research and development, and commercialization are likewise
deemed critical for S&T competitiveness.
Table 1.3_4. Parameters of the WEF GCR Innovation Index for the Philippines
Rank
Indicator
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Company Spending on R&D 85 85 58 51 42 36 44 51 99 102
University-Industry Collaboration
85 83 79 69 55 55 61 59 27 26
in R&D
Utility Patents Granted Per Million

71 68 83 84 86 85 86 83 80 79
Population
Capacity for Innovation 80 95 86 48 30 33 41 45 49 63
Availability for Scientists and

96 97 91 87 71 67 78 74 15 9
Engineers
Quality of Scientific Research

108 106 102 91 75 69 72 75 71 72
Institutions
Government Procurement of
129 126 107 85 53 59 74 91 57 56
Advanced Technology Products
Innovation capability is seen to be increasing over the last five years.

Specifically, the increase is attributed to sub-indices of capacity for
innovation, quality of scientific research institutions and its publications,
patent applications and developments, international co-inventions,
government procurement of advanced technology and products, and
availability of workforce such as scientists and engineers—factors that are
relevant for science, technology, and innovation (STI).
This indicator is supported by government projects such as the Philippine

Innovation Act, whole-of-government approach, and other Department
of Science and Technology (DOST)-funded projects (Dutta et al. 2020).
The improvement in the number of Research Engineers and Scientists is
attributed to two human resource development programs administered by
the Science Education Institute of DOST. These are the Engineering Research
and Development for Technology and the Accelerated S&T Human Resource
Development Program both of which provide scholarships for engineers
and scientists to obtain master’s and doctoral degrees. Positive results of
increased government support can be seen in the significant rise in the
Philippines’ranking in the aspects of availability of scientists and engineers,
university-industry collaboration in R&D, and government procurement of
16 advanced technology products (Table 1.3_4)
PAGTANAW 2050
Business Dynamism (previously known as Business Sophistication). The

second indicator associated with S&T performance is business dynamism
(Table 1.3_3), which belongs to the same Innovation Ecosystem overview
as the innovation capability (WEF 2019). Previously known as the Business
Sophistication pillar, the Philippines was able to improve its standing because
of the sub-pillars of administrative requirements and entrepreneurial culture.
Thus, the Philippines is ranked 44th in Business Dynamism, one of the 12
pillars of the 2019 WEF World Competitiveness Index.
S&T development is critical given that this values the framework and
resources needed to start businesses and cultural practices such as
delegation, risk involvement, and embracing disruptive ideas.
The government embraced the importance of business dynamism with

its rollout of Innovative Startup Act, Business Innovation through S&T,
and Collaborative Research and Development to Leverage Philippine
Economy Program for Industry Program. These projects aim to support local
entrepreneur partnerships for STI.
Intellectual Property Rights and ICT Adoption. Better implementation

of intellectual property rights and ICT adoption are also crucial to ramping
up Philippine S&T’s global competitiveness, particularly when exercised in
complement with institutionalized government support for innovation and
entrepreneurship (DOST 2017), e.g., through RA 10055 or the“Philippine
Technology Transfer Act of 2009”.
All in all, the above four factors are critical for S&T development and
performance. Pro-active efforts in the public and private sector are needed to
support and to sustain the development process.
Policy Recommendation
To sustain its improved competitiveness ranking and gains achieved insofar
as S&T development is concerned, the Philippines needs to continue to place
innovation at the center of the government’s economic and development
policy, embracing a whole-of-government approach (Uriarte et al. 2013).
17
SECTION 1.4
TIMES HIGHER EDUCATION,
QUACQUARELLI SYMONDS RANKINGS
OF PHILIPPINE HEIs, AND SCOPUS
INDEXED RANKINGS
The quality of the higher education system always exerts a significant

influence—if not the most significant influence—on the state of a country’s
science, technology, and innovation. There have been numerous attempts to
assess the standing of higher education institutions (HEIs) globally. Some of
the most widely recognized and well-regarded ranking systems include:
• Times Higher Education (THE) World University Rankings by Times

Higher Education based in London
• Quacquarelli Symonds (QS) World University Ranking by the

Quacquarelli Symonds based in London
• Academic Ranking of World Universities (ARWU) by the Shanghai

Ranking Consultancy
• Performance Ranking of Scientific Papers for World Universities by

the Higher Education Evaluation and Accreditation Council of Taiwan
• Ranking Web of World Universities by Cybernetics Lab, a unit of the

Spanish National Research Council
• Center for Higher Education-Excellence Ranking by the Center for

Higher Education Studies based in University College London
• University of Texas Dallas Top 100 Business School Research

Rankings by the University of Texas Dallas School of Management
This Foresight will deal only with the ranking of selected Philippine HEIs in
the THE World University Rankings and the QS World University Rankings,
these two systems being the most frequently cited in academic and popular
literature. The ARWU, though comparably as prestigious and recognized as
the THE and QS systems, unfortunately has no Philippine HEIs listed in its
website as of 2021 and is therefore not included in this Foresight.
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With regard to scientific publications in refereed journals, the ranking of the

Philippines based on Scopus Indexed Journals will be covered in this report.
Times Higher Education World University

Ranking
Only two Philippine HEIs appear in the list of universities ranked by THE as
of 2021: De La Salle University (DLSU), and University of the Philippines (UP).
Table 1.4_1 shows the ranking of the two institutions from 2017-2021.
As indicated in Table 1.4_1, DLSU and UP generally rank in the lower half of
surveyed universities. It should be noted that UP moved up from rank 801+
out of 981 universities in 2017 to rank 401-500 out of 1526 participating
universities in 2021. Meanwhile DLSU moved slightly down the list, from rank
801-1000 out of 1259 universities in 2019 to 1001+ out of 1526 universities in
2021.
These rankings reflect both institutions’weaknesses in all five ranking

criteria.
Table 1.4_1. THE World University Ranking of Selected Philipinne HEIs 2017-2021
Overall Ranking
(values in parentheses are the overall scores) Total number of
Year Top Score
universities covered
DLSU UP
801+ 981
2017 95
(8.3-18.5) (79 countries)
601-800 1103
2018 94.3
(21.5-30.6) (77 countries)
801-1000 501-600 1258
2019 96
(19.0-25.9) (33.5-37.0) (86 countries)
1001+ 401-500 1397
2020 95.4
(10.7-22.1) (38.8-42.3) (92 countries)
1001+ 401-500 1526
2021 95.6
10.3-25.0 (39.8-43.5) (93 countries)
Source: Times Higher Education (2020)
Notes: Philippines was represented in the Times Higher Education rankings from 2017 only.
The University of Oxford was the top scorer in all included years.
19
THE, QS Rankings of Philippine HEIS, and Number of Scopus Papers
Table 1.4_2. THE World University Rankings Criteria

THE World University Rankings Criteria
(1) Teaching (the learning environment)....................................................................................................... 30%
◦ Reputation survey................................................................................................................................................ 15%
◦ Staff-to-student ratio............................................................................................................................................ 4.5%
◦ Doctorate-to-bachelor’s ratio................................................................................................................................ 2.25%
◦ Doctorates-awarded-to-academic-staff ratio......................................................................................................... 6%
◦ Institutional income............................................................................................................................................ 2.25%
(2) Research (volume, income, and reputation)............................................................................................. 30%
◦ Reputation survey................................................................................................................................................ 18%
(university’s reputation for research excellence among its peers)
◦ Research income................................................................................................................................................. 6%
(scaled against academic staff numbers and adjusted for purchasing-power parity (PPP))
◦ Research productivity........................................................................................................................................... 6%
(number of publications published in the academic journals indexed by Elsevier’s Scopus database per scholar,
scaled for institutional size and normalised for subject)
(3) Citations (research influence)................................................................................................................. 30%
◦ Citations to journal articles, article reviews, conference proceedings, books and book chapters published over five
years are examined
(4) International outlook (staff, students, research)...................................................................................... 7.5%

◦ Proportion of international students..................................................................................................................... 2.5%
(ability of a university to attract undergraduates, postgraduates, and faculty from all over the planet)
◦ Proportion of international staff........................................................................................................................... 2.5%
◦ International collaboration................................................................................................................................... 2.5%
(proportion of a university’s total research journal publications that have at least one international co-author and
reward higher volumes)
(5) Industry income (knowledge transfer)..................................................................................................... 2.5%
◦ The category suggests the extent to which businesses are willing to pay for research and a university’s ability to
attract funding in the commercial marketplace—useful indicators of institutional quality.
Source: Times Higher Education (2020)
Notes: The Teaching and Research criteria are based on the responses to the annual Academic Reputation
Survey.
Exclusions: Universities can be excluded from the World University Rankings if they do not teach
undergraduates or if their research output amounted to fewer than 1,000 relevant publications between
2014 and 2018 (with a minimum of 150 a year). Universities can also be excluded if 80% or more of their
research output is exclusively in one of our 11 subject areas.
Quacquarelli Symonds World University

Ranking
The Quacquarelli Symonds (QS) World University Ranking has consistently
ranked four Philippine HEIs since 2010:
• Ateneo de Manila University (ADMU)
• De La Salle University
• University of the Philippines
• Univeristy of Santo Tomas (UST)
Only UP is state supported; the rest are private sectarian universities (Table
1.4_3).
The latest version of the criteria used by the QS World University Ranking as
of 2021 are indicated in Table 1.4_4.
The QS rankings of the four Philippine HEIs show that UP’s ranking is in
the range of 300-400, but is consistently improving in its percentile rank.
Meanwhile, the number of universities in the list has been increasing from
500 in 2010 to 1,003 in 2021. ADMU ranked 307 out of 500 in 2010, and 601–
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650 out of 1003 in 2021, placing in the same percentile rank albeit lower in
absolute terms. DLSU and UST slipped significantly in their rankings between
2010 and 2021. A review of the latest ranking criteria can explain these shifts
in the institutions’ rankings.
Table 1.4_3. The Quacquarelli Symonds World University Ranking of Selected

Philippine HEIs 2010-2021
Overall Ranking
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
ADMU 307 360 451-500 451-500 501-550 461-470 501-550 551-600 651-700 601-650
DLSU 451-500 - - 601+ 601-650 651-700 701+ 701-750 701-750 801-1000
UP 314 332 348 348 380 367 401-410 374 367 384 356 396
UST - - - 601+ 701+ 801-1000
Tota Number
of Universities 500 499 500 726 833 863 891 916 959 1000 1002 1003
Covered
Source: QS World University Rankings (2020a)
Table 1.4_4. Quacquarelli Symonds World University Rankings Criteria

QS World University Rankings Criteria
(1) Academic Reputation............................................................................................................................. 40%
◦ Based on QS Academic Survey, which collates expert opinions of over 100,000 individuals in the higher education
space regarding teaching and research quality at the world’s universities.
(2) Employer Reputation.............................................................................................................................. 10%
◦ Based on almost 50,000 responses to QS Employer Survey, and asks employers to identify those institutions from
which they source the most competent, innovative, effective graduates.
(3) Faculty/Student Ratio............................................................................................................................. 20%
◦ Proxy metric for teaching quality. It assesses the extent to which institutions are able to provide students with
meanigful access to lecturers and tutors, and recognizes that a high number of faculty members per student will
reduce the teaching burden on each individual academic.
(4) Citations per faculty............................................................................................................................... 20%
◦ Institutional research quality is measured. To calculate it, we take the total number of citations received by all
papers produced by an institution across a five year period by the number of faculty members at that institution.
(5) International Faculty Ratio...................................................................................................................... 5%
◦ It demonstrates an ability to attract faculty and students from across the world, which in turn suggests that it
possesses a strong international brand
(6) International Student Ratio...................................................................................................................... 5%
◦ It demonstrates an ability to attract faculty and students from across the world, which in turn suggests that it
possesses a strong international brand
Source: QS World University Rankings (2020b)
Scopus Indexed Rankings

As of April 2020, the Philippines is ranked 69 out of 240 countries in the
World ranking of countries with the most number of Scopus indexed journals
covering the period 1996–2019 (Scimago 2020, Scopus 2020). However, the
Philippines is ranked 14th in the Asian regional ranking of Scopus indexed
journals, with Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam ranked
higher, as shown in Table 1.4_5 (Scimago 2020, Scopus 2020).
21
THE, QS Rankings of Philippine HEIS, and Number of Scopus Papers
Table 1.4_5. Regional Ranking of Asian Countries Based on the Number of

Publications in Scopus Indexed Journals, 1996-2019
Citable Self- Citations per
Rank Country Documents Citations H index
documents citations document
1 China 716540 679955 2882171 1912222 4.02 1010
2 India 206648 182018 506414 202580 2.45 691
3 Japan 144883 125986 463150 130436 3.2 1118
4 South Korea 94142 87007 366234 85265 3.89 762
5 Indonesia 47432 46644 55764 28730 1.18 259
6 Taiwan 40516 36865 150418 28289 3.71 585
7 Malaysia 38228 36402 114103 32121 2.98 373
8 Hong Kong 26001 22985 161233 22610 6.2 639
9 Singapore 25537 21647 159129 23110 6.23 646
10 Pakistan 25343 23571 107369 33279 4.24 323

11 Thailand 20629 19322 57005 11702 2.76 369
12 Viet Nam 13068 11997 58466 18270 4.47 248
13 Bangladesh 8444 7865 26260 7275 3.11 225
14 Philippines 5888 5458 15786 3052 2.68 274
15 Kazakhstan 5214 4821 12175 3685 2.34 126
16 Sri Lanka 2937 2637 10372 1372 3.53 206
17 Macao 2378 2211 13037 1207 5.48 155
18 Nepal 2042 1805 6751 1132 3.31 159

19 Uzbekistan 1624 1473 3872 2184 2.38 105
20 Myanmar 787 728 2212 324 2.81 88
21 Mongolia 689 594 2203 349 3.2 110

Brunei
22 609 555 2212 377 3.63 95
Darussalam
23 Cambodia 539 477 1972 277 3.66 119
24 Kyrgyzstan 454 391 2099 128 4.62 90
25 Laos 361 321 1299 167 3.6 95
26 Afghanistan 329 309 921 61 2.8 66
27 North Korea 245 213 695 133 2.84 37
28 Tajikistan 237 228 994 131 4.19 50
29 Bhutan 145 132 409 48 2.82 53
30 Maldives 47 42 193 27 4.11 35
Sources: Scimago (2020), Scopus (2020)
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Important Developments Concerning the

Rankings
These rankings are now being reviewed by the International Network of
Research Management Societies to address concerns over the need for“fairer
and more responsible university rankings.”The indicators used are being
challenged as not being representative of the universities’missions and may
possibly“overlook societal impact or teaching quality.”Twenty principles
have been transformed into a tool to assess rankings, qualitatively and
quantitatively (Gadd 2020).
With regard to the evaluation of scientific output, a group of editors and

publishers have expressed the need to improve the evaluation process and
the indicators used, including the Journal Impact Factor whose transparency
is under question. These concerns are now articulated in the San Francisco
Declaration on Research Assessment, signed as of 08 March 2021 by 19,254
individuals and organizations in 145 countries and the Leiden Manifesto with
the following recommendations (Hicks et al. 2015; DORA 2020):
• Elimination of the use of journal-based metrics in“funding,

appointment and promotion considerations.”
• Assessment of research on the basis of its merits“rather than on the
basis of the journal in which the research is published.”
• Harness the advantage provided by online publication such as
“relaxing unnecessary limits on the number of words, figures, and
references in articles, and exploring new indicators of significance
and impact.”
It cannot be overemphasized that the Philippines’science community

must actively participate in these discussions, to improve both the
overall performance of university programs in global rankings and—more
importantly—the quality and quantity of the programs’scientific outputs.
23
SECTION 1.5
THE PHILIPPINE INNOVATION SYSTEM
The linchpin of our national innovation system is the Intellectual Property

Code (Republic Act 8293), signed into law on 06 June 1997. Republic Act (RA)
8293 protects the exclusive rights of scientists, inventors, artists, and other
gifted citizens to their Intellectual Property (IP) and creations. The effective
implementation of our national innovation strategy rests heavily on public-
private partnership, while recognizing the role of government, especially the
Department of Science and Technology (DOST), in strengthening linkages
among key sectors. Public awareness of the benefits of innovation and
entrepreneurial mindset are likewise important.
Even prior to the enactment of RA 8293, the value of inventions and their
utilization was already recognized in RA 7459, the Inventors and Inventions
Act of the Philippines, which was enacted into law on 28 April 1992. RA 7459
provides protection of inventors’exclusive rights to their inventions and
grants them incentives in its development and commercialization.
The government continues to engender a policy environment conducive

to innovation through such laws as the Philippine Technology Transfer Act
(RA 10055), signed into law on 27 July 2009. RA 10055 lays down the policy
that the state shall facilitate the transfer and promote the utilization of IP for
the national benefit. It shall likewise establish the means to ensure greater
public access to technologies and knowledge generated from government-
funded research and development (R&D). This law explicitly gives the IPs
and intellectual property rights (IPRs) generated by R&D institutions (RDIs)
using funds provided by government funding agencies to the RDIs. It also
allows various modalities for public-private collaboration to speed up the
commercialization and utilization of the IP.
The fact that RA 10055 facilitated technology transfer from the RDIs to the
private sector is evident in the increase in the number of technologies that
had been commercialized since the passage of the law. In the University
of the Philippines (UP) System, the Revised IPR Policy based on RA 10055
enabled the creation of offices and programs whose main purpose is to assist
students and personnel in securing protection, licensing, and marketing of
their creative outputs. The Office of the Vice-Chancellor for Research and
Development of the University of the Philippines (UP) Diliman has listed
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several technologies for deployment for commercialization (as of 2014), one

of which is "CoaTiN", an enhanced titanium nitride coating process that is
environment friendly and low-cost, and which increases the lifetime of tools.
Another award-winning technology being offered for commercialization is an
effective oral vaccine for fish involving a novel process for microencapsulation
of inactivated pathogens.
Recently, RA 11293, also known as the Philippine Innovation Act of 2018 was
enacted with the following primary objectives:
• promoting a strategic planning and innovation culture

• improving innovation governance; coordinating and eliminating
fragmentation of innovation policies and programs across levels of
the government
• strengthening the position of micro, small, and medium enterprises
(MSMEs) in the innovation system
• removing obstacles to innovations
• encouraging entrepreneurial culture; exploring, promoting, and
protecting traditional knowledge, traditional cultural expressions,
genetic resources
• strengthening interactions and partnerships among public and
private sectors, academe, MSMEs, RDIs, and communities
The enactment of RA 11293 has paved the way for the establishment of
the National Innovation Council, which adopts a“whole of government
approach”that involves all government agencies to drive innovation across
all areas.
In addition to RA 11293, the Congress also enacted RA 11337 or the Innovative

Startup Act, whose development plan includes programs, incentives, and
benefits for startups and startup enablers. The Philippine Council for Industry,
Energy and Emerging Technology Research and Development (DOST-
PCIEERD) serves as one of the host agencies along with the Department
of Trade and Industry (DTI) and the Department of Information and
Communications Technology (DICT). This law complements RA 11293 through
its emphasis on MSMEs and its role in fostering the country’s innovation
economy.
The Harmonized National Research and

Development Agenda
The DOST applies the enacted laws through the Harmonized National
Research and Development Agenda (HNRDA) 2017-2022, which harnesses
R&D for the country’s economic and social benefit. The HNRDA was
conceptualized in consultation with government agencies, private
institutions, academic institutions, and industry. The HNRDA is also aligned
with the Filipino people’s aspirations in the 1987 Philippine Constitution,
Philippine Development Plans, and AmBisyon Natin 2040.
25
Guided by the three pillars of AmBisyon Natin 2040—Malasakit (i.e.,

enhancing the Philippine social fabric), Pagbabago (reducing inequality), and
Kaunlaran (increasing potential growth)—the HNRDA focuses on the following
sectors (Figure 1.5_1):
(1) National Integrated Basic Research Agenda (NIBRA)

(2) Health
(3) Agriculture, Aquatic, and Natural Resources (AANR)
(4) Industry, Energy, and Emerging Technology
(5) Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation (DRR CCA)
Drug Discovery and

Development
Countryside
Development
Intelligent
Transportation Solutions
-Omic Technologies
for Health
Figure 1.5_1. DOST’s Harmonized National R&D Agenda (HRNDA)
The National Research Council of the Philippines (NRCP) is in charge of the

NIBRA. For the years 2017-2019, the NRCP funded research on sustainable
communities, inclusive nation-building, and health sufficiency. The
NIBRA-related research studies have yielded scholarly publications, policy
advisories, patent applications, and knowledge products. Meanwhile, the
Philippine Council for Health Research and Development manages and
coordinates health-related R&D studies. Their main priorities are diagnostics,
drug discovery and development, and functional foods.
For the AANR, the Philippine Council for Agriculture, Aquatic and Natural
Resources Research and Development (PCAARRD) focuses on advanced and
emerging technologies, organic agriculture, food production and safety, and
genetically modified organism development. Aside from these, PCAARRD
seeks to modernize agriculture and fisheries through mechanization as
mandated by RA 10601 or the Agricultural and Fisheries Modernization Law.
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One of the most comprehensive programs in the HNRDA is on industry,

energy, and emerging technologies which is being managed by Philippine
Council for Industry, Energy and Emerging Technology Research and
Development (PCIEERD). Industry competitiveness is deemed as the most
imperative priority area as it aids in countryside development. Moreover,
DOST-PCIEERD has updated its R&D priority areas to include emerging
industries such as space technology applications, artificial intelligence,
human security and defense, and creative industries.
The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS)

and Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA) spearhead the program on DRR CCA. Guided
by the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and the Sendai
Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015–2030), PHIVOLCS and PAGASA
give equal priority R&D to (1) monitoring and forecasting; (2) hazard and risk
assessment; (3) warning; and (4) proper and timely response.
R&D Budget of Philippine Government

Departments
Based on the General Appropriations Act, the allocation of public funds for
R&D from 2017 to 2021 amounted to PHP92,426,672,708.00 for an average
of PHP18,485,334,541.60 per year (Table 1.5_1). This resulted in an annual
average ratio of 0.58% of the national budget. For the year 2020 alone, public
R&D funding was a scant 0.105% of GDP, based on official data from the
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP 2020).
For 2021, the DOST received the bulk of funds along with the Department of
Agriculture (DA), with State Universities and Colleges (SUCs) also receiving
substantial R&D funding. It is noted that the DICT did not receive any R&D
budget for 2021, but was allocated substantial R&D funding from 2018 to
2020.
Table 1.5_1. R&D Budget of Government Departments Based on Unified Accounts

Code Structure, 2017–2021
Name of Department 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 GAA
DOST 6,310,249,000 8,185,719,000 6,154,983,000 7,086,628,000 10,173,078,000
DA 1,791,572,000 2,359,161,000 2,812,423,000 2,770,316,000 2,733,025,000
DENR 635,519,000 778,174,000 761,904,000 457,761,000 727,527,000
DOE 38,648,019 98,658,000 104,129,000 82,411,000 244,433,000
DND 130,155,000 132,567,000 137,298,000 189,125,000 249,375,000
DepEd 73,784,000 1,526,094,000 1,909,794,000 1,938,493,000 575,760,689
DILG 77,881,000 84,317,000 86,680,000 82,546,000 139,079,000
DOF 34,107,000 40,359,000 41,676,000 38,624,000 34,413,000
DOH 75,896,000 215,653,000 134,446,000 129,598,000 179,127,000
DOLE 31,696,000 33,887,000 18,782,000 18,853,000 45,859,000
DTI 40,071,000 29,144,000 38,694,000 66,868,000 63,749,000
ARMM 27,791,000 0 27,544,000 0 NAD
SUC’s** 2,632,001,000 2,049,227,000 2,148,481,000 2,009,300,000 2,841,085,000
BSGC 693,219,000 482,347,000 992,736,000 1,226,990,000 809,129,000
27

Name of Department 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 GAA
Other Executive Offices* 835,485,000 921,579,000 767,909,000 755,487,000 804,594,000
DPWH 158,321,000 173,848,000 187,428,000 171,728,000 185,702,000
DICT NA 2,645,012,000 3,289,139,000 1,600,479,000 0
DOTr 50,000,000 113,652,000 596,691,000 285,000,000 0
Total National R&D Budget 13,636,395,019 19,869,398,000 20,210,737,000 18,910,207,000 19,799,935,689
Total GAA (National Budget) 2,499,486,952,000 2,861,527,550,000 2,685,485,754,000 4,100,000,000,000 4,506,000,000,000
Ratio of National R&D
Budget against National 0.55% 0.68% 0.75% 0.46% 0.44%
Budget (GAA)
Source: DOST/M. Sahagun (personal communication, 21 July 2021)

For acronyms, please refer to List of Acronyms.
‘Filipinnovation’
Aside from the HNRDA, the DOST has also adopted the“Filipinnovation”
framework to improve science, technology, and innovation (STI) outputs.
Filipinnovation is another whole-of-government approach to inclusive
innovation that ensures coherent policies, aligned priorities, and
collaboration among government agencies, academic institutions, industry,
and civil society organizations. This framework also integrates the efforts
of stakeholders such as the local government units, startups, MSMEs, R&D
laboratories, S&T parks, incubators, fabrication laboratories, and investors
(de la Peña 2020).
One of the first Filipinnovation collaborations is between the DOST and

the DTI. The two agencies established several regional inclusive innovation
centers (RIICs) with funding from the United States Agency for International
Government. The RIICs work in tandem with Niche Centers in the Regions
for Research and Development (NICER), with the former providing
commercialization-related support to the universities that are part of
the NICER Program. Other activities organized under the Filipinnovation
framework are as follows (Guevara 2018):
(1) Filipinovation Entrepreneurship Corps – enables researchers to

assess the commercial and societal value of their research
(2) Funding Assistance for Spin-off and Translation of Research in
Advancing Commercialization Program – bridges the gap between
R&D and commercialization particularly for DOST-PCIEERD funded
technologies
(3) Intellectual Property Management Program for Academic
Institutions Commercializing Technologies – aids Higher
Education Institutions (HEIs) in setting up their technology transfer
processes and facilitate commercialization of university-owned
technologies
(4) Venture Financing Program — provides financial assistance for
start-ups and technology-based expansion projects
(5) Technicom – fast tracks the market-readiness of local and supported
communities’technologies
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(6) Small Enterprise Technology Upgrading Program (SETUP) – helps

MSMEs level up their industries
(7) OneSTore – allows customers to shop and retailers to reach
customers and sell products by MSMEs
(8) PCAARRD Innovation and Technology Center – supports the
implementation of Technology Transfer Act, Innovation Act, and IP
Code
It is noted that the SETUP, a DOST program initiated over 15 years ago, has
assisted MSMEs in acquiring technological innovations to improve their
products, services, and operations in order to increase their productivity and
competitiveness.
Science for Change Program

The DOST further strengthens its commitment to R&D with the Science for
Change (S4C) program (DOST 2018) which focuses on Human Resource
Development and R&D capacity-building and improvement. To sustain the
efforts on capacity-building, the DOST has established the following (Figure
1.5_2):
(1) NICER Program (Figure 1.5_3)

(2) R&D Leadership (RDLead) Program
(3) Collaborative R&D to Leverage Philippine Economy (CRADLE)
Program
(4) Business Innovation through S&T (BIST) for Industry Program
Figure 1.5_2. The Four Components of the DOST S4C Program

Source: DOST (2020) with modifications
29
Mountain Engineering, UC, CAR Garlic and Other AGRI-FOOD Condiments, MMSU, R-I
Potato, BSU, CAR Freshwater Fisheries, ISU, R-II
Sweet Potato, TAU, R-III Citrus, NVSU, R-II
Tamarind, PSAU, R-III

Queen Pineapple, CNSC, R-V
Advanced Materials for Astronomy, RTU, NCR

Energy, UST, NCR
Pili, BU, R-V

DRRM-Health, UPM, NCR
Crustacean, SSU, R-VIII
Cave Ecosystem, UPLB, R-IVA
Envi. Informatics, UPC, R-VII

Native Pig, MSC, R-IVB
Industrial Tree Plantation, CSU, CARAGA

Mollusk, UPV, R-VI
Sea Cucumber, MSUN, R-X

Biodiversity, CTU, R-VII
Renewable Energy, AdDU, R-XI
Seaweed, MSU TCTO, BARMM Applied Modelling, Data Analytics, and Bio-informatics in
Halal Goat, SKSU, SOCCSKSARGEN Health, UP Mindanao, R-XI
Figure 1.5_3. DOST-assisted Niche Centers in the Regions

Source: DOST (2020)
For acronyms, please refer to List of Acronyms.
The NICER Program seeks to improve the competitiveness of HEIs in the

regions by establishing R&D centers and providing R&D institutional grants.
Related to the NICER program is the RDLead Program that helps HEIs
and RDIs upgrade their facilities and ensure the use of research results in
policymaking and other development programs. Meanwhile, the DOST
connects the HEIs and RDIs with the industry through the CRADLE Program.
Industry identifies the problem while the HEIs and RDIs are given funding to
undertake the R&D. The collaboration provides an opportunity for technology
commercialization. The DOST also aids the industry by facilitating their
acquisition of technologies as part of the BIST for Industry Program. Similar
to the RDLead program, the BIST Program also provides R&D and technology
acquisition funding for the industry.
Since its commencement, the S4C Program has doubled the number of HEIs
that conduct R&D from 74 in 2014 to 149 in 2019. Funding had also increased
for regions beyond Manila from 7% in 2014 to 20% in 2019. Moreover, the
S4C Program, mainly through the CRADLE Program, has helped improve the
country’s Global Innovation ranking in terms of University-Industry research
collaboration from 56th in 2018 to 27th in 2020. The country expects more
research outputs, partnerships, and technology acquisition under the S4C
Program in the coming years (de la Peña 2020).
R&D Infrastructure: The RDIs (excluding

DOST RDIs)
In addition to RDIs and Niche Centers under the DOST, significant strides
in the development of the country’s R&D capacity were made through the
establishment of specialized RDIs in HEIs. Most of these RDIs are recognized
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for their research productivity, to enable stronger collaboration between

the research personnel of the RDI and the faculty of the HEI. The RDIs were
created by Philippine laws, Presidential issuances, or the HEIs’Governing
Boards orders.
University of the Philippines (UP) Los Baños hosts several of these RDIs.
Notable among them is the Institute of Plant Breeding established on 05
June 1975 by PD 729. It is mandated to develop new and improved varieties
of agricultural crops, except rice, through biotechnology and other breeding
technologies. Its other important responsibility is to conserve plant genetic
resources. Another RDI based in UP Los Baños is the National Institute of
Molecular Biology and Biotechnology, established on 20 December 1979 by
the UP Board of Regents. It specializes in agricultural, environmental, food
and feeds, and health biotechnology to enhance agro-industrial productivity.
Its products that have been commercialized include biofertilizers,
biopesticides, vaccines, and diagnostic kits.
In UP Diliman, the oldest RDI is the Natural Sciences Research Institute, which
was established in 1964 by RA 3887 and given the mandate to undertake
research in biology, chemistry, environmental and atmospheric sciences,
and mathematics, as well as to organize interdisciplinary research programs.
Other than DOST, DA and Department of Health (DOH) also have RDIs
affiliated with them. The DA has the Philippine Carabao Center (PCC) and
the Philippine Rice Research Institute (PHILRICE). Their main laboratories are
located in the Science City of Munoz, Nueva Ecija, close to the Central Luzon
State University. PHILRICE was established on 05 November 1985 through
EO 1061 to develop high-yielding and cost-reducing rice technologies to
help farmers produce sufficient rice for all Filipinos. The PCC was created
by RA 7307 in 1992 with the responsibility of conserving, propagating, and
promoting the carabao as a source of milk, as well as a draft animal.
The DOH Research Institute for Tropical Medicine was established in 1981
through EO 674 to conduct research in the diagnosis, control, and prevention
of infectious and tropical diseases. Its research outputs have been utilized in
the crafting of a national health policy and strategy.
Human Resources Development

Unleashing the benefits of science and technology for national development
depends largely on the human resources that can be used to plan,
implement, monitor, and evaluate the science and technology activities
that will promote national well-being. The public and private sectors in the
Philippines have been implementing programs to provide opportunities for
those who would like to pursue careers in science, technology, engineering,
and mathematics (STEM).
We shall discuss highlights on these initiatives in this section covering the

period from the administration of President Corazon C. Aquino in 1986 to the
conclusion of the term of President Benigno S. Aquino III in 2016.
31
It was during the term of President Corazon C. Aquino that the DOST was
elevated to full cabinet status. This development triggered a series of
initiatives to strengthen existing human development programs such as
scholarships and to improve the teaching of STEM in basic education (K-12).
Included in these initiatives is the upgrading of the skills of the workforce
through technical and vocational education.
To better prepare students for careers in STEM, scholarships were offered for
elementary and high school teachers who would like to specialize in STEM
subjects. This was complemented by in-service training programs to update
basic education STEM teachers. The Science Education Institute led in this
effort by sustaining its support for the Regional Science Teaching Centers.
In 1997, UP’s science teaching program was further strengthened by the
organization of the National Institute for Science and Mathematics Education
Development. Gifted students interested in STEM careers were encouraged to
study in the Philippine Science High School System. Science high schools and
special science sections were established in the public schools and private
schools. The construction and equipping of science laboratories in 110 public
high schools were made possible from 1992–1998 through the Engineering
and Science Education Project (ESEP). When the basic education program
was reformed in 2013, STEM was offered as one of the four tracks at the senior
high school level (Grades 11 and 12).
Building on the gains of past initiatives such as the undergraduate and

graduate scholarships and training programs of the forerunners of the DOST—
the National Science Development Board and the National Science and
Technology Authority, the Philippine government availed of a loan of USD 85
million funded by the World Bank and the Overseas Economic Cooperation
Fund of Japan to implement ESEP which was approved in the latter part of
the administration of President Corazon C. Aquino and implemented during
the term of President Fidel V. Ramos. Aside from the high school science
laboratories that were constructed and equipped, ESEP supported the faculty
development and upgraded research facilities in science and engineering
programs in selected universities.
The“Science and Technology Scholarship Act of 1994”(RA 7687) expanded

the scholarship slots for undergraduate degrees in STEM.
Programs were established to sustain the gains achieved in ESEP, to cope with
the rapid developments in STEM, and enhance local capacity to undertake
research and development. This involved expanding the pool of experts
with master’s and doctoral degrees in STEM to respond to the needs of
academe and industry. Thus, the Engineering Research and Development
for Technology and the National Science Consortium were put in place. This
was expanded to the Accelerated Science and Technology Human Resource
Development Program.
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The former National Manpower and Youth Council was merged with the
Bureau of Technical and Vocational Education into the Technical Education
and Skills Development Authority by virtue of the“Technical Education and
Skills Development Act of 1994”(RA 7796), which aims to develop the skills
for various occupational areas, production, services, and livelihoods. As
part of the STEM workforce, learners of trades and crafts supply competent
apprentices by studying technologies and related sciences, and acquiring
skills of practical value to the economy.
Retaining Highly-Trained Individuals

In addition to the earlier creation in 1976 of the Scientific Career System
by Presidential Decree 997, the“Magna Carta for Scientists, Engineers,
Researchers and other S&T Personnel in Government”(RA 8439) was enacted
in 1997. The law provides for government S&T personnel a share of royalties,
as well as hazard allowance, subsistence allowance, longevity pay, and funds
for an annual medical examination, among others. Furthermore, in order to
encourage and enable highly-trained Filipinos abroad to get involved in short-
term and long-term STEM activities in the Philippines, the“Balik Scientist
Act”(RA 11035) was enacted into law in 2018.
Conclusion
Current efforts to promote STI in the public and private sector are gradually
being enhanced. Laws have been enacted to improve the environment for
doing R&D. Unfortunately, there are still remnants of the inertia that have
retarded the progress of STI in the country. We have been wanting in talent,
and our knowledge infrastructure needs some overhauling. The challenge
is to develop our capabilities in STI even while we are simultaneously
developing our economy.
33
SECTION 1.6
GEOGRAPHIC FEATURES AND
NATURAL RESOURCE ENDOWMENTS
Geographic Features
The Philippines is a Southeast Asian archipelago with 7,641 islands, and
ranked 5th among the world’s largest island countries. It is located north of
the equator between 3° to 22°N and 113° to 130°E. The Pacific Ocean bounds
it on the east and many smaller water bodies, including Luzon Strait to the
North, Sulawesi Sea to the south, and the South China Sea and the West
Philippine Sea to the West (Figure 1.6_1). Administratively, it is divided into
17 regions and as of June 2020, there are 81 provinces; 146 cities; 1,488
municipalities; and 42,046 barangays (DILG 2020). In terms of land masses,
there are three island groups—Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao—with a total
land area of 30 million ha classified into 15.8 million ha of forest land, and
14.2 million ha of certified alienable and disposable land (DENR-FMB 2019).
Sloping lands, comprised of mountains and hills, occupy 55% of the country’s
land area. The longest mountain range is the Sierra Madre in Luzon, which
stretches some 540 km. There are about 24 active volcanoes. Meanwhile,
there are at least 18 watersheds with an area of at least 100,000 ha that are
classified as major river basins; 421 principal river basins; and 142 priority
watersheds, of which 113 are proclaimed watershed forest reserves with an
aggregate area of 2.46M ha (DENR-FMB 2019). There are also 216 lakes and
22 marshes, swamps, and reservoirs. Luzon’s Laguna de Bay (900 km2) is the
largest lake in the country.
The country is generally tropical and maritime, and is characterized by

relatively high temperatures, high humidity, and abundant rainfall. The mean
annual temperature is 26.6°C. January is the coldest month, with a mean
temperature of 25.5°C. May is the warmest month, with a mean temperature
of 28.3°C. Mean annual rainfall varies between 965 and 4,064 millimeters.
The Philippine climate results from the interaction of the Asian Monsoon and
many mountain ranges scattered across the country. The prevailing wind
system is dominated by the Northeast Monsoon (locally called“amihan”)
from November to March, and the Southwest Monsoon “habagat”
( ) from
34
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Notes: Red lines represent Philippine

EEZ and ECS boundaries.
Black lines represent the
archipelagic baselines.
Figure 1.6_1. Location of the Philippines Relative to Southeast Asia and Surrounding
Bodies of Water.
Material prepared by: Acd. Villanoy
Note: EEZ - Exclusive Economic Zone, ECS - Extended Continental Shelf
June to October. The climate map in Figure 1.6_2 shows rainy conditions
on the windward side of the mountain ranges. The seasonal reversal of the
monsoons brings with it shifts in rainfall patterns. Fair weather dominates the
monsoon transition months (April-May and October).
The country lies along the Pacific Typhoon Belt where an average of 20
tropical cyclones pass into area of responsibility annually, five of which
are usually destructive. The tropical cyclones season lasts from June to
November, but tropical cyclones do occur throughout the year (Figure 1.6_3).
The Philippines has a coastline measuring 36,389 km, ranked the 6th longest
coastline worldwide. The entire sea area within all the maritime zones shown
in Figure 1.6_1 is seven times greater than the land area. One can readily see
several ocean bottom features. These include Benham (or Philippine) Rise, a
3,000 m deep underwater plateau found off the eastern coast of Luzon; the
reef systems of the Kalayaan Islands, west of Palawan; and the broad shelf
areas in northern Palawan and north of the Bicol Peninsula.
The topography of the sea bottom is as rugged, if not more so, than that of
the land. The range of ocean depths (10,000 m) is about five times that of land
(2,000 m). The shelf area (<100 m depth) accounts for about 8% of the total
sea area. Half of the entire water sea is deeper than 4,000 m. The deepest
points (>6,000 m) are within the Philippine Trench, located off Mindanao’s
eastern coast.
35
Geographic Features and Natural Resource Endowments
BASED ON MODIFIED
CORONAS CLIMATE
CLASSIFICATION (1952-2003)
Type I
Two prounounced seasons.
Dry from November to April
Wet during the rest of the year.
Type II
No dry season with a very pronounced
maximum rainfall during
Type III
Seasons not very pronounced.
Relatively dry from November to April.
Wet for the rest of the year.
Type IV
Rainfall more or less evenly distributed
throughout the year.
Figure 1.6_2. Climate in the Philippines

Source: DOST-PAGASA (2014)
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FORECAST TROPICAL CYCLONE

Month Number of TC
DECEMBER 2020 1-2
JANUARY 2021 0-1
FEBRUARY 2021 0-1
MARCH 2021 0-1
APRIL 2021 0-1
MAY 2021 0-1
Figure 1.6_3. Historical and Projected Tropical Cyclone Activity in the

Philippines as of December 2020
TC - Tropical Cyclone
37
The complex seascape of the seafloor around the Philippines is the product
of the area’s very active geologic history and ongoing tectonic processes.
Sandwiched between the Pacific Plate and the Eurasian plate, both sides of
the archipelago are active collision plates with subduction within trenches
and extensive faulting. Between the trench systems is an actively deforming
region known as the Philippine Mobile Belt (PMB). The Philippine Fault
System, a multi-branched left lateral strike-slip fault, cuts through the PMB
from Pujada Bay to the Luzon Strait, with a length of about 1,400 km.
Figure 1.6_4. Map Showing Trenches Bounding the Philippine Mobile Belt
Source: Taguibao and Takahashi (2018)
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The Philippines straddles the Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea. The
large-scale currents of the Pacific influence the ocean currents on the Pacific
side, and are usually persistent year-round (Figure 1.6_5). The stronger
effects of the monsoon winds along the western coast drive ocean currents at
seasonally-varying strengths.
Figure 1.6_5. Schematic of Major Ocean Currents within Philippine Waters during the
Northeast Monsoon (top), and Southwest Monsoon (bottom).
Source: Gordon et al. (2011)
39
The seas around the Philippines are very warm, except during the northeast
monsoon (Figure 1.6_6). Some cooling is observed along straits and passages
between islands during the peak monsoon months with strong vertical mixing
driven by the wind’s funneling effect. This mechanism also pumps nutrients
from below the surface, enhancing phytoplankton production, and increasing
biological productivity. These productive areas (and potentially-productive
fishing grounds) appear in Figure 1.6_6 as areas with elevated chlorophyll
concentration levels.
Figure 1.6_6. Mean Sea Surface Temperature (left) and Chlorophyll a Concentration
(right) Averaged Over 2003-2019.
Source: MODIS
Material prepared by: Acd. Villanoy
Terrestrial Resources
Forests
Of the declared 15.8 million ha of the country’s forest lands, only 7.01 million
ha are covered with forests (DENR-FMB 2019). The remaining forest lands are
classified as: closed forests (more than 40% of ground continuously covered
by trees); open forests (10%-40% of the ground is discontinuously covered
by trees); and mangrove forests (unique coastal forests). Closed forests cover
2.03 million ha of the remaining forest cover. Open forests share the greatest
area, with as much as 4.68 million ha (see Figure 1.6_7). Mangroves only span
303,373 ha of the existing forest cover.
Minerals
The Philippines ranks fifth among the world’s most mineralized countries,
with nine million hectares of land that have high mineral content (DENR-MGB
2016). Major metallic minerals include gold, nickel, chromite, and copper. The
major non-metallic minerals are limestone, marble, and coal.
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Closed Forest
(29%)
Open Forest
(67%)
Mangrove Forest (4%)
Figure 1.6_7. Forest Cover of the Philippines

Source: DENR-FMB (2019)
Table 1.6_1 shows the estimated mineral reserves for major metallic minerals
and suggests the potential contribution of mining to the national economy, if
sustainably managed. The country has concessions and infrastructure for:
• eight operating sites and two processing plants for gold
• 30 operating mines and two processing plants for nickel
• four operating sites for chromite
• three operating sites with one smelter plant for copper (PSA 2018e)
Table 1.6_1. Estimated Metallic Mineral Reserves from Year 2014 to 2018
Reserve Volume
Mineral
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Gold
4.859 4.840 4.831 4.887 4.894
(Million kg)
Nickel
1.985 1.991 1.962 1.957 2.051
(Billion mt)
Chromite
40.288 40.237 40.247 44.904 44.859
(Million T)
Copper
1135.3 1135.3 1135.2 1135.1 1135.1
(Million mt)
Source: PSA (2018e)
Water resources
The Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) data shows

the country’s water supply is about 146 billion cu m, with 86% of piped-water
supply systems supported by groundwater sources (DENR 2014).
The groundwater resources are estimated at 180 cu km/year, of which 80%

(145 cu km/year) constitute the base flow of the river systems.
41
Groundwater reservoirs span 50,000 sq km which are freely recharged by rain,

and seepage from rivers and lakes. It is estimated that rivers and lakes cover
61% of the country’s total land area, and are potential water sources.
There 438 major dams, and 423 smaller dams (total of 861 impounding dam
and reservoir sites) identified as sites with water surface and water storage
potential. Recent estimates indicate that the total allocation rate for various
water uses is 6.1 million liters per second.
Biodiversity
The Philippines is one of the world’s 18 mega-biodiverse countries. It ranks 5th

in the number of plant species, and maintains 5% of the world’s flora. Species
endemism is very high, with at least 25 genera of plants and 49% of terrestrial
wildlife, while the country ranks fourth in bird endemism.
With habitat degradation, the country is considered as a biodiversity hotspot

with at least 700 threatened species. Based on 2004 records, as many as 42
species of land mammals, 127 species of birds, 24 species of reptiles, and 14
species of amphibians were listed to be threatened. Fish biodiversity accounts
to as much as 3,214 species, of which 76 are also threatened while 121 are
endemic.
The estimated value for ecosystem services related to biodiversity

conservation is about PhP 2.3 trillion. Ecosystem services related to crop
production are worth about PhP 1.4 trillion. Carbon sequestration is valued at
PhP 453 billion. Ecotourism is worth as much as PhP 157 billion (Table 1.6_2).
These values imply the need for more serious conservation for biodiversity
resources.
Table 1.6_2. Ecosystem and Biodiversity Values (PhP Billion)

Estimated Value
Ecosystem service
(PhP)
Ecotourism 157.0
Water provision 50.9
Carbon offset 453.0
Flood prevention 41.0
Soil erosion 10.0
Mangrove 7.4
Coral reef 62.1
Timber and fuelwood production 1.1
Fishery production 111.0
Crop production 1,416.0
Total 2,309.5
Source: DENR-BMB (2016)
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Agricultural and Forestry Production
Agriculture. Agricultural lands are estimated at 14.48 million ha (PSA 2019).

Major agricultural crops include: rice, corn, coconut, sugar cane, and banana.
Major livestock include cattle, carabao, goat, hog, and poultry. The agriculture
sector contributed 8.1% to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in
2018. The country’s GDP is estimated to have increased by 6.2% in 2020. The
agriculture and fishing sectors recorded a 0.8% increase in production.
Forest Productions. In terms of timber products, roundwood production is

estimated around 1.27M cu m in 2019 (DENR-FMB 2019). Of this, 5,021 cu m
was exported. In terms of lumber, the country has produced about 246,000 cu
m in the same year.
Of these, 89,000 cu m was exported. Further, 2019 records also showed that
veneer and plywood products were as much as 285,000 cu m and 210, 000 cu
m, respectively. Only the veneers were exported with a volume of 15,000 cu
m.
Common non-timber forest products (NTFP) sold in the market are Almaciga
resin (Agathis philippinensis), Anahaw leaves (Saribus rotundifolius), Bamboo
poles (Bambusa spp.), Buri midribs (Corypha elata), Hingiw (Ichnocarpus
ovatofolius), Nipa shingles (Nypa fruticans), Salago fiber (Wikstroemia ovata)
and Rattan (Calamus spp.) Exported NTFPs in 2019 was worth as much as USD
940,000.
In terms of wood fuel, the rate of production (in‘000 cu m) has increased

over the years from 112,000 cu m in 2000, to more than double in 2005
(269,000 cu m), and continued increasing in the years 2010 (425,000 cu m)
and 2015 (475,000 cu m). The country’s annual wood fuel consumption rate is
estimated at 57 milion tons.
Coastal and Marine Resources

Biodiversity
The country sits at the apex of the Coral Triangle and is reported to be the
center of marine shorefish biodiversity. It is host to the highest number of
marine fish per square area (Carpenter and Springer 2005, Sanciangco et al.
2013). Based on 2009 estimates, the number of fish species in the country is
greater than 3,244, majority of which live in the marine areas (~80%), with 4%
being endemic (Froese and Pauly 2009 in Alava et al. 2009).
The consensual Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) estimate for small pelagics
is about 800,000 metric tons. The estimated MSY demersals is about 600 000
metric tons. Studies have indicated that most pelagic stocks, and demersal
stocks are over-fished (Barut et al. 2003).
Commercially-important marine invertebrate resources include squids and

cuttlefish, octopi, and crabs. Oceanic squid and deep-sea shrimp inhabit
43
Philippine territorial waters. Sharks, including chimaeras, true sharks, and

flat sharks or batoids, make up 116 species, eight of which are new species
descriptions (i.e., within the past five to 10 years), while 39 are considered
potentially new species, possibly endemics, and require description (BFAR-
NFRDI 2017).
There are 27 cetacean species, including a subspecies and one sirenian,

reported and confirmed. They are all listed in Convention in International
Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) Appendices, and
are fully-protected under RA 8550. Five turtle species are known to occur in
the country. Their exploitation is banned under Ministry of Natural Resources
Administrative Order No. 12, Series of 1979.
There are more than 400 species and 70 genera of hard coral, all of which are
fully-protected under Philippine laws. Recent estimates indicate a continued
decline in coral cover, where about a third of the reef coral has been lost over
the last decade (Licuanan et al. 2019).
The country has about 18 seagrass species, which provide nurseries for
certain aquatic species, export nutrients to adjacent habitats, and promote
the settlement of waterborne silt, reducing the impact of siltation (Fortes
2013). About 824 species of marine macrobenthic algae–consisting of 214
species of green algae (Chlorophyta), 134 species of brown algae (Phaeophyta),
and 472 red algae (Rhodophyta)—are found in the Philippines (Trono 1999).
Marine Protected Areas
A marine protected area (MPA) is a defined area of the sea established by

law, administrative regulation, or other means, to conserve and protect
an enclosed environment, in part or entirely, by establishing management
guidelines. MPAs are categorized either as nationally-established and locally
established. They can have several forms: marine sanctuary, marine reserve,
fish sanctuary, marine park, protected seascape, etc. Cabral et al. (2014)
pegged the total number of MPAs in the country at 1,800 (Figure 1.6_8).
Fisheries Production
In 2018, total fish production was reported as 4,356,874 metric tons, broken
down into 946,437 metric tons from commercial fisheries; 1,106,071 metric
tons from municipal fisheries; and 2,304,365 metric tons from aquaculture—
all contributing about 1.2% (at current prices) and 1.3% (at constant prices) to
the country’s GDP (Table 1.6_3) (PSA 2018e).
The marine ecosystem alone (excluding the continental shelf) was

conservatively valued to be about USD 966.6 billion/year, based on primary
and available secondary data (Azanza et al. 2017).
Filipino fisherfolk, farmers, and children posted the highest poverty

incidences in 2015 at 34.0%, 34.3%, and 31.4%, respectively (PSA 2019b).
Fisherfolk belong to the poorest of the poor in Philippine society.
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Figure 1.6_8. Location of Marine Protected Areas in the Philippines

Source: Cabral et al. (2014)
45
Table 1.6_3. Volume of Fisheries Production by Sector, Philippines: 2016–2018 in Metric

Tons
Sector 2016 2017 2018
All Sectors 4,355,792.42 4,312,089.51 4,356,874.77
Commercial Fisheries 1,016,948.05 948,281.45 946,437.62
Municipal Fisheries 1,137,931.03 1,126,017.30 1,106,071.84
Marine 976,941.19 962,146.84 941,870.86
Inland 160,989.84 163,870.46 164,200.98
Aquaculture 2,200,913.34 2,237,790.76 2,304,365.31
Brackishwater Fishpond 337,582.24 343,793.25 325,503.98
Brackishwater Fish cage 978.88 927.79 1,248.65
Brackishwater Fish pen 2,086.18 2,765.27 2,882.17
Freshwater Fishpond 145,655.32 156,465.15 161,519.66
Freshwater Fish cage 97,568.86 95,699.48 103,348.98
Freshwater Fish pen 56,610.84 62,805.43 57,644.07
Marine Fish cage 106,257.36 106,770.58 108.951.71
Marine Fish pen 11,307.24 11,019.69 9,867.59
Oyster 19,512.36 22,944.37 28,708.15
Mussel 18,774.55 19,208.62 26,302.77
Seaweed 1,404,519.23 1,415,320.79 1,478,300.85
Small Farm Reservoir 56.68 66.86 83.25
Rice Fish 3.59 3.49 3.47
Source: PSA (2019b)
Threats and Opportunities

The Philippines is richly endowed with terrestrial, coastal, and marine
resources. While some of its precious resources have been badly exploited
over time—forests, minerals, biodiversity, and fisheries—the country’s natural
resource base continues to support the needs of its increasing population,
and its quest for development.
The next several decades will be crucial, as pressures from climate change,
natural hazards, land and natural resource use, population, and economic
growth intensify. This will heavily impact the country’s natural resource
endowments.
The act of balancing between development and protection of the

environment and natural resources will become more challenging as more
people require the use of our finite resources for livelihood and economic
gains.
For terrestrial resources, a confluence of natural and anthropogenic pressures

continue to threaten the sustainable production of various ecosystems’
services that are vital to human well-being, and the pursuit of sustainable
development.
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PAGTANAW 2050
While the Philippines has a significant fisheries sector and unique marine
biodiversity, it is also a global hotspot for marine conservation, being right
at the apex of the Coral Triangle of the Indo-Pacific Region–primarily due
to several threats including overfishing, especially illegal, unregulated and
unreported fishing (IUUF [date unknown]), habitat degradation, pollution,
alien and invasive species, and climate change (Roberts et al. 2012).
In fact, the Philippines is one of the top 10 countries considered most

vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change (Santos et al. 2011).
Considering the current and anticipated threats to the country’s natural

resources, continuing assessment and monitoring of these resources will
ensure their protection and sustainable management.
Science, technology, and innovation can, and should, play an important role
in conservation and sustainable use of these resources.
47
SECTION 1.7
DEMOGRAPHICS AND DEVELOPMENT
The country’s development, resilience, and sustainability depend greatly

on the wise utilization of its natural endowments. A burgeoning population
and rapid urbanization are just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the
Philippines’demographic and development trends. The country’s annual
population growth rate is currently 1.73%, while its annual urbanization rate
is 1.32% (PSA 2015a), resulting in the overutilization and overexploitation
of natural resources. This accelerated population growth translates into
increased demand for food production and shelter.
The Philippines is blessed with abundant natural resources. Demand for

access and use of natural resources, such as land and water resources across
regions, also varies among different social classes based on their income and/
or lifestyle. For example, water use in urban areas tends to be higher than in
rural areas.
The resilience of households, communities, regions and countries is directly

related to their adaptive capacity. Some indicators or measures of adaptive
capacity include demographic variables such as age, level of education,
income, human development index, etc. (IPCC 2014; Cruz et al. 2017). These
indicators vary across regions, as well as within the regions themselves.
Demographics: Regional Distribution and

Trends
The projected Philippine population by age group from 2020 to 2045 is
shown in Table 1.7_1. The 0-24 age group, which is almost half (48.6%) of the
population in 2020, will account for almost a third (36.5%) of the projected
population by 2045.
Conversely, there is a steady increase in the percentage of population in the

older age group from 2020 to 2045, which is more pronounced in the 45 to
80 age range. From a little more than a fifth (22.6%) in 2020, the 45 to 80 age
group is projected to grow to a third (34.2%) of the projected population in
2045.
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PAGTANAW 2050
Table 1.7_1. Population Projection by Age Group, Philippines: 2020 - 2045

Age Group 2020 % 2025 % 2030 % 2035 % 2040 % 2045 %
All Age Groups 109,948 100.0 117,959 100.0 125,338 100.0 131,904 100.0 137,532 100.0 142,095 100.0
Under 5 Years 11,476 10.4 11,361 9.6 11,044 8.8 10,622 8.1 10,120 7.4 9,524 6.7
5 - 9 Years 11,234 10.2 11,386 9.7 11,274 9.0 10,958 8.3 10,536 7.7 10,032 7.1
10 - 14 Years 10,602 9.6 11,162 9.5 11,313 9.0 11,198 8.5 10,879 7.9 10,453 7.4
15 - 19 Years 10,209 9.3 10,524 8.9 11,081 8.8 11,227 8.5 11,108 8.1 10,783 7.6
20 - 24 Years 10,045 9.1 10,118 8.6 10,432 8.3 10,985 8.3 11,127 8.1 11,003 7.7
25 - 29 Years 9,540 8.7 9,944 8.4 10,017 8.0 10,329 7.8 10,878 7.9 11,016 7.8
30 - 34 Years 8,229 7.5 9,436 8.0 9,841 7.9 9,915 7.5 10,225 7.4 10,771 7.6
35 - 39 Years 7,239 6.6 8,127 6.9 9,334 7.4 9,742 7.4 9,819 7.1 10,130 7.1
40 - 44 Years 6,574 6.0 7,134 6.0 8,024 6.4 9,231 7.0 9,645 7.0 9,728 6.8
45 - 49 Years 5,787 5.3 6,450 5.5 7,016 5.6 7,909 6.0 9,116 6.6 9,537 6.7
50 - 54 Years 5,186 4.7 5,630 4.8 6,296 5.0 6,868 5.2 7,762 5.6 8,968 6.3
55 - 59 Years 4,319 3.9 4,971 4.2 5,421 4.3 6,087 4.6 6,665 4.8 7,557 5.3
60 - 64 Years 3,445 3.1 4,046 3.4 4,685 3.7 5,138 3.9 5,799 4.2 6,378 4.5
65 - 69 Years 2,472 2.2 3,110 2.6 3,684 2.9 4,301 3.3 4,750 3.5 5,397 3.8
70 - 74 Years 1,668 1.5 2,110 1.8 2,686 2.1 3,218 2.4 3,795 2.8 4,230 3.0
75 - 79 Years 967 0.9 1,313 1.1 1,689 1.3 2,183 1.7 2,653 1.9 3,170 2.2
80 Years and
958 0.9 1,138 1.0 1,501 1.2 1,993 1.5 2,657 1.9 3,421 2.4
Above
Sources: PSA (2014a, 2018c)

Note: Median assumption in thousands ('000); Details may not add up to totals due to rounding.
The highest grade completed by household members 15 years old and above
is depicted in Table 1.7_2. On the average, from 2013 to 2017, 44% had a high
school education while a quarter (25%) reached college and graduate school
level. Likewise, a quarter had elementary education, and a meager 2% had
not completed any level of education at all.
It is also interesting to note the demographic differentiation of males and

females in the workforce across regions in terms of educational attainment.
Males outnumber females among those who attained only an elementary
education, while the percentages of males and females across regions who
completed secondary-level education are almost the same. However, there
are more females than males in the labor workforce with baccalaureate
degrees across all regions (PSA 2015a). This information is an important
consideration in linking gender in development planning as educated and
young people are more receptive to innovation.
Household income is another measure of resilience and adaptive capacity.

Figure 1.7_1 shows the average annual income for a family of five members
over a three-year interval, from 2006 to 2018. An increasing trend can be
observed for all regions with the National Capital Region (NCR) consistently
emerging with the highest family income followed by Region IV-A. Region III
consistently came in third from 2006 to 2015, but lost its spot to the Cordillera
Administrative Region (CAR) in 2018.
49
Demographics and Development
Table 1.7_2. Household Population for ages 15 Years Old and Above by Highest Grade
Completed, Philippines: 2013–2017 (In Thousands)
Highest Grade Completed 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Philippines 64,173 % 64,033 % 64,936 % 68,311 % 69,891 %
No Grade Completed 1,158 1.8 1,126 1.8 1,108 1.7 1,127 1.6 1,235 1.8
Elementary 16,340 25.5 15,629 24.4 15,616 24.0 16,673 24.4 16,729 23.9
Undergraduate 7,974 7,436 7,583 8,494 8,779
Graduate 8,367 8,192 8,033 8,180 7,950
SPED 1 NA NA NA 10 0.0 -
SPED Undergraduate NA NA NA 8 -
SPED Graduate NA NA NA 2 -
High School 2 27,771 43.3 27,790 43.4 28,462 43.8 30,054 44.0 -
Undergraduate 10,267 9,875 10,206 11,518 -
Graduate 17,504 17,915 18,256 18,535 -
Junior High School NA NA NA NA 30,214 43.2
Undergraduate NA NA NA NA 10,852
Graduate NA NA NA NA 19,362
Senior High School NA NA NA NA 1,013 1.4
Undergraduate NA NA NA NA 953
Graduate NA NA NA NA 60
Post Secondary 2,598 4.0 2,759 4.3 2,744 4.2 2,970 4.3 2,842 4.1
Undergraduate 651 464 429 404 349
Graduate 1,947 2,294 2,315 2,566 2,493
College 16,306 25.4 16,730 26.1 17,007 26.2 17,476 25.6 17,858 25.6
Undergraduate 7,959 8,004 8,236 8,738 9,116
Graduate and Higher 8,347 8,726 8,771 8,738 8,743
Source: PSA (2020c)

Notes:
1. Details may not add up to totals due to rounding.
2. Data averages of the four survey rounds (January, April, July and October).
3. Annualized data for 2014 refer to the average of estimates for April, July and October survey
rounds. The estimates for these rounds exclude Leyte province.
4. Annualized data for 2015 refer to the average of the four survey rounds that exclude Leyte. The use
of the four survey rounds that exclude Leyte was based on the results of the referendum conducted
among members of the Interagency Committee on Labor and Productivity Statistics (IACLPS).
5. Starting April 2016 round, the Labor Force Survey (LFS) adopted the 2013 Master Sample Design as
well as the population projections based on the 2010 Census of Population and Housing (2010 CPH)
while previous survey rounds were derived using the 2000 CPH population projections.
6. Annualized data for 2016 was computed as the average of the four survey rounds using the
January 2016 round that was based on the 2010 CPH population projections.
* Less than 500.

NA Not available.
1 Starting 2017, data for SPED is included under Elementary.
2 Starting 2017, High School data is broken down into Junior and Senior High School.
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Figure 1.7_1. Average Annual Family Income by Region, 2016–2018

Sources: NSO (2006, 2009, 2012), PSA (2015a, 2018d)
On the other hand, the now-defunct Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao

(ARMM), which has been replaced by the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in
Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) consistently showed the lowest reported annual
family income from 2006–2018. The second lowest-ranked was Region IV-B
(2006–2009), the Region V (2012–2015), and Region VIII (2018) while Region XII
(2006, 2012, and 2015) and Region IX (2009 and 2018) came in third from the
lowest during the indicated years.
Table 1.7_3 shows the per capita poverty threshold (i.e., the minimum income
required for an individual to meet his/her basic food and non-food needs) and
poverty incidence by region and province for the first semester of 2015 and
2018 (PSA 2018a, 2018b). Overall first quarter poverty incidence in the country
decreased from 22.2% in 2015 to 16.1% in 2018. The NCR had the lowest first-
quarter poverty incidence for both years (i.e., 4.6% in 2015 and 4.9% in 2018),
while the ARMM had the highest poverty incidence: 56.2% in 2015 and 55.4%
in 2018.
This trend is echoed by the annual per capita poverty threshold 1991 to 2015:
all regions saw reduced poverty thresholds—by as much as 25.6 percentage
points, in the case of Region II, from 37.3% to 11.7%—except for the ARMM,
which saw an increase of 21.3 percentage points, from 26.9% to 48.2%. The
NCR posted both the lowest thresholds and the smallest decrease over the
period, from 5.3% in 1991 to 2.7% in 2015. As a whole, the poverty incidence
in the Philippines decreased from 29.7% in 1991 to 16.5% in 2015 (PSA 2015c,
2018a).
51
Table 1.7_3. First Semester Per Capita Poverty Threshold and Poverty Incidence among
Families with Measures of Precision, by Region and Province: 2015 and 2018
First Semester Poverty 90% Confidence Interval
Per Capita Incidence
Poverty Threshold among Coefficient
Region/Province (in PhP) Families (%) of Variation Standard Error 2015* 2018
Lower Upper Lower Upper
2015* 2018 2015* 2018 2015* 2018 2015* 2018
Limit Limit Limit Limit
PHILIPPINES 11,344 12,577 22.2 16.1 4.8 1.1 1.1 0.2 20.4 24.0 15.8 16.4
National Capital Region

12,605 14,102 4.6 4.9 7.5 5.3 0.3 0.3 4.0 5.2 4.5 5.3
(NCR)
1st District (City of
12,605 14,102 4.8 5.7 19.8 19.0 1.0 1.1 3.2 6.4 3.9 7.5
Manila)
2nd District (City of
Mandaluyong, City of
Marikina, City of Pasig, 12,605 14,102 3.9 3.5 14.9 12.6 0.6 0.4 3.0 4.9 2.7 4.2
Quezon City, City of San
Juan)
3rd District (City
of Caloocan, City
of Malabon, City 12,605 14,102 6.5 8.1 13.1 6.5 0.9 0.5 5.1 8.0 7.2 9.0
of Navotas, City of
Valenzuela)
4th District (City of Las
Piñas, City of Makati,
City of Muntinlupa, City 12,605 14,102 3.8 3.9 16.1 6.5 0.6 0.3 2.8 4.8 3.5 4.3
of Parañaque, Pasay City,
Pateros, City of Taguig)
Cordillera Administrative
11,583 12,352 22.7 13.8 20.1 4.0 4.6 0.6 15.2 30.2 12.9 14.7
Region (CAR) b/
Abra 11,361 12,406 36.8 29.5 9.1 6.1 3.4 1.8 31.2 42.3 26.5 32.5
Apayao 11,776 11,523 46.8 23.2 8.3 12.6 3.9 2.9 40.4 53.2 18.4 28.0
Benguet b/ 10,778 11,820 5.2 6.1 20.1 10.4 1.0 0.6 3.5 6.9 5.1 7.2
Ifugao b/ 12,553 12,944 43.9 15.5 21.7 11.4 9.5 1.8 28.2 59.6 12.6 18.5
Kalinga b/ 10,679 11,864 26.6 12.3 22.1 10.1 5.9 1.2 16.9 36.2 10.2 14.3
Mt. Province 11,900 13,343 41.8 24.4 11.3 8.1 4.7 2.0 34.0 49.6 21.2 27.7
Region I (Ilocos Region) 11,386 12,821 20.4 8.7 8.7 8.0 1.8 0.7 17.4 23.3 7.5 9.8
Ilocos Norte b/ 11,750 12,709 16.9 5.5 20.1 16.5 3.4 0.9 11.3 22.5 4.0 7.0
Ilocos Sur 11,865 11,907 15.0 8.8 19.5 11.2 2.9 1.0 10.2 19.8 7.2 10.4
La Union b/ 10,923 10,866 19.0 3.7 21.6 18.7 4.1 0.7 12.2 25.8 2.6 4.8
Pangasinan 11,373 13,160 23.0 10.5 7.8 10.6 1.8 1.1 20.0 26.0 8.7 12.4
Region II (Cagayan Valley) 11,328 12,142 17.3 15.3 5.4 5.5 0.9 0.8 15.7 18.8 13.9 16.7
Batanes a/ 15,314 19,249 10.0 13.3 0.0 11.9 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 10.7 15.9
Cagayan 10,841 12,199 18.4 15.1 11.3 8.9 2.1 1.3 15.0 21.8 12.9 17.3
Isabela 11,642 12,190 16.0 15.6 7.9 9.2 1.3 1.4 14.0 18.1 13.3 18.0
Nueva Vizcaya 11,525 11,934 17.6 16.9 17.5 10.0 3.1 1.7 12.5 22.7 14.1 19.7
Quirino 11,086 11,194 21.8 9.5 14.5 11.6 3.2 1.1 16.6 27.0 7.7 11.3
52
PAGTANAW 2050

2015* 2018 2015* 2018 2015* 2018 2015* 2018
Region III (Central Luzon) 11,224 12,885 12.2 7.8 7.8 4.7 0.9 0.4 10.6 13.7 7.2 8.4
Aurora a/ 10,289 12,050 24.6 16.7 0.0 9.9 0.0 1.6 24.6 24.6 13.9 19.4
Bataan b/ 11,234 14,333 5.5 11.3 29.9 9.6 1.7 1.1 2.8 8.3 9.5 13.1
Bulacan 10,620 12,545 5.3 4.9 17.6 14.9 0.9 0.7 3.8 6.8 3.7 6.1
Nueva Ecija 11,346 12,287 23.4 10.3 9.7 10.1 2.3 1.0 19.7 27.1 8.6 12.1
Pampanga 10,668 12,795 4.8 3.5 16.8 19.7 0.8 0.7 3.5 6.1 2.4 4.6
Tarlac 11,024 11,917 19.8 10.3 12.1 9.1 2.4 0.9 15.9 23.8 8.8 11.9
Zambales 13,333 14,638 14.5 16.4 16.4 7.8 2.4 1.3 10.6 18.4 14.3 18.5
Region IV-A
12,775 13,528 12.8 7.6 10.1 6.0 1.3 0.5 10.7 15.0 6.9 8.4
(CALABARZON)
Batangas 14,957 15,754 21.8 12.7 10.7 10.1 2.3 1.3 17.9 25.6 10.6 14.8
Cavite 13,669 14,440 9.7 6.0 14.1 13.2 1.4 0.8 7.4 11.9 4.7 7.3
Laguna b/ 10,701 11,471 5.6 5.0 24.1 16.8 1.4 0.8 3.4 7.8 3.6 6.4
Quezon 10,530 11,357 23.5 12.2 16.5 12.9 3.9 1.6 17.1 29.9 9.6 14.8
Rizal 12,443 13,951 7.7 4.8 17.1 15.4 1.3 0.7 5.5 9.9 3.6 6.1
MIMAROPA Region 10,189 11,420 22.9 15.0 7.7 4.7 1.8 0.7 20.0 25.8 13.9 16.2
Marinduque 9,963 11,672 23.9 14.2 12.4 9.2 3.0 1.3 19.0 28.8 12.1 16.4
Occidental Mindoro 10,176 10,577 32.4 22.0 16.1 9.6 5.2 2.1 23.8 40.9 18.5 25.5
Oriental Mindoro 10,369 12,032 21.7 12.8 14.3 10.6 3.1 1.4 16.6 26.8 10.6 15.0
Palawan 9,833 11,339 17.9 11.2 17.9 10.1 3.2 1.1 12.6 23.2 9.4 13.1
Romblon b/ 10,777 11,862 26.8 24.3 22.1 7.4 5.9 1.8 17.1 36.6 21.3 27.2
Region V (Bicol Region) 11,431 11,946 33.7 21.4 6.8 3.6 2.3 0.8 29.9 37.5 20.1 22.6
Albay 11,378 12,208 24.8 15.9 12.0 8.0 3.0 1.3 19.9 29.7 13.8 18.0
Camarines Norte 12,015 12,117 40.1 24.6 16.6 7.0 6.6 1.7 29.1 51.0 21.8 27.5
Camarines Sur 11,420 11,575 31.3 19.2 8.6 8.7 2.7 1.7 26.8 35.7 16.5 22.0
Catanduanes 11,297 12,144 37.3 19.4 8.5 8.3 3.2 1.6 32.1 42.5 16.7 22.0
Masbate 10,398 11,285 33.0 29.4 16.9 7.0 5.6 2.1 23.8 42.2 26.0 32.8
Sorsogon 11,907 13,114 46.7 24.5 13.5 6.7 6.3 1.6 36.3 57.1 21.8 27.2
Region VI
0,932 11,937 25.0 15.9 7.5 4.9 1.9 0.8 21.9 28.1 14.6 17.2
(Western Visayas)
Aklan 11,056 12,069 25.4 14.6 16.7 10.2 4.2 1.5 18.4 32.4 12.2 17.0
Antique 10,226 11,680 27.0 18.3 19.3 9.6 5.2 1.7 18.4 35.6 15.4 21.1
Capiz b/ 10,326 10,984 18.3 5.9 27.4 13.1 5.0 0.8 10.0 26.6 4.6 7.2
Guimaras a/ b/ 11,501 12,602 19.4 12.4 37.6 11.5 7.3 1.4 7.4 31.4 10.1 14.8
Iloilo 11,471 12,590 22.0 15.8 14.1 7.5 3.1 1.2 16.9 27.2 13.8 17.7
Negros Occidental 10,763 11,604 29.5 18.5 8.2 8.5 2.4 1.6 25.5 33.5 15.9 21.1
53

2015* 2018 2015* 2018 2015* 2018 2015* 2018
Region VII
11,210 12,696 28.5 19.0 4.8 4.2 1.4 0.8 26.2 30.7 17.7 20.3
(Central Visayas)
Bohol 11,200 12,613 25.9 21.1 12.1 8.3 3.1 1.8 20.7 31.1 18.2 24.0
Cebu 11,451 12,859 24.1 16.5 6.6 5.9 1.6 1.0 21.5 26.7 14.9 18.1
Negros Oriental 10,835 12,396 40.6 26.1 9.2 8.4 3.8 2.2 34.4 46.8 22.5 29.7
Siquijor a/ 10,658 12,454 49.7 10.0 0.0 15.8 0.0 1.6 49.7 49.7 7.4 12.6
Region VIII
11,227 12,201 39.9 30.4 6.4 3.4 2.6 1.0 35.7 44.1 28.7 32.1
(Eastern Visayas)
Biliran 10,831 12,037 16.1 18.0 7.7 7.9 1.2 1.4 14.0 18.1 15.7 20.4
Eastern Samar 12,971 14,112 42.9 43.0 16.0 5.0 6.9 2.2 31.5 54.2 39.4 46.5
Leyte 10,819 11,732 38.4 29.4 8.1 6.5 3.1 1.9 33.3 43.5 26.2 32.6
Northern Samar 11,502 12,648 53.8 30.0 8.9 6.6 4.8 2.0 45.9 61.6 26.7 33.3
Southern Leyte 11,863 12,672 31.7 22.8 18.3 7.2 5.8 1.6 22.1 41.2 20.1 25.5
Western Samar 10,634 11,238 43.9 32.2 13.8 6.6 6.0 2.1 34.0 53.9 28.7 35.6
Region IX
11,038 12,388 33.9 32.4 10.8 3.4 3.7 1.1 27.8 39.9 30.5 34.2
(Zamboanga Peninsula)
Zamboanga del Norte 12,028 13,609 51.7 41.2 7.2 5.9 3.7 2.4 45.5 57.9 37.2 45.2
Zamboanga del Sur 10,120 11,829 23.2 25.2 17.2 5.8 4.0 1.5 16.6 29.7 22.8 27.6
Zamboanga Sibugay 10,602 11,436 39.4 36.0 12.6 7.1 5.0 2.5 31.2 47.6 31.8 40.2
Isabela City a/ b/ 10,518 12,607 20.7 52.6 30.2 6.2 6.2 3.3 10.4 30.9 47.3 58.0
Region X
11,426 12,232 35.9 25.4 6.8 3.1 2.4 0.8 31.9 39.9 24.1 26.7
(Northern Mindanao)
Bukidnon 11,886 12,678 54.1 32.1 5.6 6.3 3.0 2.0 49.1 59.1 28.7 35.4
Camiguin a/ 11,883 2,671 40.0 23.2 6.0 8.8 2.4 2.0 36.0 44.0 19.8 26.5
Lanao del Norte 11,346 12,114 42.2 23.6 11.7 6.0 4.9 1.4 34.0 50.3 21.3 26.0
Misamis Occidental 10,697 11,994 36.9 32.4 11.9 6.3 4.4 2.0 29.7 44.2 29.1 35.8
Misamis Oriental 11,007 1,838 18.4 18.5 15.8 5.1 2.9 0.9 13.6 23.2 16.9 20.1
Region XI (Davao Region) 11,585 12,709 21.4 17.7 7.1 4.0 1.5 0.7 18.9 23.9 16.6 18.9
Davao del Norte 12,016 12,720 27.2 14.5 17.6 10.3 4.8 1.5 19.3 35.1 12.1 17.0
Davao del Sur 11,603 12,968 12.1 10.7 13.7 10.2 1.7 1.1 9.4 14.9 8.9 12.6
Davao Oriental 11,404 12,643 28.0 32.6 16.0 6.6 4.5 2.1 20.6 35.3 29.1 36.2
Compostela Valley 11,386 12,502 29.2 25.8 8.7 6.7 2.6 1.7 25.0 33.4 23.0 28.7
Davao Occidental 11,332 12,510 51.2 36.7 9.0 6.7 4.6 2.5 43.6 58.7 32.6 40.8
Region XII
10,576 12,067 37.4 27.2 6.5 3.7 2.4 1.0 33.4 41.4 25.5 28.9
(SOCCSKSARGEN)
North Cotabato 10,452 11,773 42.3 25.6 8.1 8.3 3.4 2.1 36.7 48.0 22.1 29.1
Saranggani 10,051 11,043 53.0 40.5 12.0 7.3 6.4 3.0 42.5 63.5 35.6 45.4
South Cotabato 10,661 12,504 23.6 18.9 12.1 8.1 2.9 1.5 18.8 28.3 16.4 21.4
Sultan Kudarat 10,543 11,555 49.0 32.4 14.7 7.2 7.2 2.3 37.1 60.9 28.6 36.3
Cotabato City b/ 12,730 14,804 39.9 42.3 27.3 5.8 10.9 2.5 21.9 57.9 38.3 46.4
54
PAGTANAW 2050

2015* 2018 2015* 2018 2015* 2018 2015* 2018
Region XIII (Caraga) 11,299 12,314 35.2 28.3 5.7 3.2 2.0 0.9 31.9 38.5 26.8 29.8
Agusan del Norte 10,119 11,430 28.4 23.5 12.2 5.7 3.5 1.3 22.7 34.1 21.3 25.7
Agusan del Sur 11,490 12,095 45.0 32.4 7.6 6.8 3.4 2.2 39.4 50.6 28.8 36.0
Surigao Del Norte 12,253 13,742 32.8 32.2 13.1 6.8 4.3 2.2 25.7 39.9 28.7 35.8
Surigao Del Sur 11,361 11,945 32.8 23.9 11.1 7.4 3.6 1.8 26.8 38.8 21.0 26.8
Dinagat Islands 12,132 13,177 45.4 36.7 18.8 6.8 8.5 2.5 31.3 59.4 32.6 40.8
Autonomous Region
in Muslim Mindanao 11,183 13,578 56.2 55.4 5.8 2.4 3.3 1.3 50.8 61.5 53.2 57.6
(ARMM)
Basilan 9,856 12,671 28.8 65.3 12.8 3.4 3.7 2.2 22.7 34.9 61.6 68.9
Lanao del Sur 12,021 14,769 73.8 68.0 4.9 3.2 3.6 2.2 67.8 79.8 64.5 71.5
Maguindanao 9,979 12,653 47.4 47.9 8.2 6.6 3.9 3.1 41.0 53.8 42.8 53.1
Sulu 11,494 13,830 71.8 65.8 8.5 3.4 6.1 2.3 61.7 81.8 62.1 69.6
Tawi-tawi b/ 8,895 9,817 10.9 17.2 32.8 9.1 3.6 1.6 5.0 16.8 14.7 19.8
Source: PSA (2020c)

Notes:
a/ Caution in utilizing the estimate for these provinces must be observed due to its very small sample size.
b/ Coefficient of variation of first semester 2015 provincial poverty incidence among families is greater than
20%.
* Food Thresholds are estimated using actual prices collected by PSA for the estimation of the Consumer
Price Index (CPI). In consonance with the updating of the market basket for the collection of prices for
CPI, First Semester 2015 Poverty Statistics were revised accordingly.
55
Urbanization
Meanwhile, population growth is exerting pressure on available land and
water resources. Rapid urbanization often leads to land use and cover
changes due to unregulated land conversion and unsustainable production
systems. Figure 1.7_2 shows that the urban communities increased from
45.3% in 2010 (PSA 2010) to 51.2% in 2015 (PSA 2015a) especially in Region
IV-A (CALABARZON) including the provinces of Mindoro Oriental, Mindoro
Occidental, and Palawan.
Figure 1.7_2. Level of Urbanization by Region in 2010 and 2015.

Sources: PSA (2010, 2015a)
56
PAGTANAW 2050
Implication of Demographics to Science,

Technology, and Innovation Development
Almost half of the population currently belongs to the age group 0-24 and
will be a potential source of the talent pool for science, technology, and
innovation (STI). Access to formal education and skills training will be a
crucial factor in our ability to maintain a critical mass of highly trained and
skilled workers, and those who will engage in STI activities especially in
research and development and science and technology services. However,
by 2045, only a third of the population will be in this age bracket. Measures
should be instituted to manage this decrease.
The differences in the demographics of the regions will require targeted

STI interventions calibrated to the characteristics and needs of the regions,
especially for livelihood, education, and health services.
Abrigo et al. (2020) attribute the progress made by the Philippines in

improving average incomes and consumption in the past 25 years to the
country’s favorable demography. This demographic dividend should be
provided with opportunities to contribute to sustainable growth.
57
DIGITAL ARTWORK
Amorsolo 2050
Primary conceptual idea by Jerome Suplemento II
Art by Julius Sempio
Fernando Amorsolo is famous for preserving in the warm amber light of his
paintings the romantic essence of Philippine rural life in the 20th century—
depictions, if not of how things are, then at least of how they might or could
be. Here, we bring one of the great master’s most iconic landscapes into
the future, with a vision of how the latest advancements in science and
technology, when properly designed and implemented, can harmoniously
coexist or be integrated into traditional ways of life. Just as Amorsolo
captured the ephemeral essence of Philippine rural life, so too do we hope for
S&T to flourish and become so commonplace as to be all but invisible in even
the most far-flung farms of the 21st century.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in the artworks do not

necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the NAST.
SECTION 2
Megatrends: From COVID-19
to Space and Beyond
SECTION 2.1
MEGATRENDS IN POPULATION,
MIGRATION, POVERTY, AND INEQUALITY
The demographic profile of the world has changed tremendously over the
past three decades, as total fertility has declined and as life expectancy has
risen. Migration, both internal and international, has also expanded due to
labor shortages, whether in highly-developed urban areas or in advanced
countries, and, more broadly, as a response to existing inequalities in
incomes and economic opportunities across places.
Population growth and migration movement are two factors that have
impacted global and regional poverty and inequality changes in the last three
decades. Poverty has declined over this period, but it has declined unevenly
across different regions of the world. Inequality has dropped across some
countries but has risen within many others. Moving forward and over the long
term, climate change, technological development, and the current COVID-19
crisis are expected to impact the movement of people, the distribution of
populations, and the evolution of poverty and economic inequality. The
country’s capacity to harness science, technology, and innovation (STI) is key
to turning these trends into opportunities for rapid, sustainable, and inclusive
socioeconomic development.
Population
World population growth has been positive, but declining, over the past few
decades. World population grew at 2% per year from 1960 to 1970 (1960s), at
1.9% in the 1970s, 1.8% in the 1980s, 1.5% in the 1990s, and 1.2% in the 2000s
and 2010s (UN DESA 2019).
Declining fertility rates (from 5.0 in 1960-65 to 2.5 in 2015-20) and longer life
expectancy means population growth has varied widely across age groups.
Annual average population growth for those 65 years and above actually
rose from 2.6% in the 1960s to 3.2% in the 2010s. In contrast, annual average
population growth for those in the 15-64 age group (working age) declined
from 1.8% to 1.1% in the same period, while growth of those 14 years and
below dropped even steeper from 2.1% to 0.6%.
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PAGTANAW 2050
Population growth varied widely across different regions of the world. In

Sub-Saharan Africa, the population grew at 2.7% per year from 1990 to 2020,
but in the Philippines and the rest of East Asia and the Pacific, the population
only grew at 0.9% per year. East Asia and the Pacific are rapidly aging, as the
population of those 65 years and older grew at 3.2% annually in the past
three decades, while the population of those in the 15-64 age group grew
1.1%, and those 14 years and below actually declined by -0.6% per year. As
a consequence, in the same period, the share of those aged 14 years and
below in the total population declined from 29.7% to 19.6%, while the share
of those 65 years and older almost doubled from 5.7% to 11.2%. Within East
Asia and the Pacific, declining population growth and increased ageing were
particularly sharp in the more developed countries of the region, such as
Japan, Korea, and Taiwan.
For many developing Asian countries, the rapid decline in population growth
over the past three decades has meant a decline in the dependency ratio
(ratio of 15-64 population to sum of 0-14 population and 65+ population),
which has contributed positively to their rapid economic development. This
growth in the economy attributed to changes in the age structure of the
population has been termed the“demographic dividend.”Some studies
have estimated that about one-third of the economic growth achieved by the
tiger economies of East Asia from 1965 to 1995 were from the demographic
dividend (Bloom and Canning 2001; Bloom and Williamson 1997; Radelet et
al. 1997, as cited in Mapa 2015).
The countries in the best positions to avail of the demographic dividend are
those where the working-age population have quality education and good
health, and where there are sufficient quality jobs to absorb them (UNFPA
2016). The Philippines has yet to benefit fully from the demographic dividend
because of the slow decline in its fertility rate (Mapa and Balisacan 2004).
For more advanced countries, however, the extended decline in population
growth has led to the ageing of the population and, in some cases, labor
shortages that have posed or are posing a threat to further economic growth,
absent adjustments such as large-scale automation, economic restructuring,
or migrant worker inflow (Ducanes and Abella 2008).
In the next three decades, these demographic shifts will continue to have
an impact on economic growth and well-being, especially as developing
countries, including the Philippines, transition to higher income status. The
expected shift of manufacturing to greater automation, and the pressure
that change will exert on lower-skill work, poses a particular challenge to
countries that have yet to benefit from the demographic dividend.
The world population was estimated at 7.9 billion in 2020, and it is projected
to grow to 9.7 billion by 2050, with half of the population growth coming
from Sub-Saharan Africa. In Southeast Asia, specifically, the total population
is expected to grow from 669 million in 2020, to 794 million in 2050, with the
population expected to rise in all countries except for Thailand.
61
MEGATRENDS IN POPULATION, MIGRATION, POVERTY, AND INEQUALITY
Climate change is projected to have a huge impact on the distribution of the

population within and, even, across countries. A World Bank (WB) report
focusing on Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America, projects more
than 143 million migrating internally by 2050 due to climate change (Rigaud
et al. 2018).
A study by the European Commission, meanwhile, projects climate change

can drive anywhere from 25 million to one billion people into internal or
external migration by 2050 (Artuso and Guijt 2020). This includes people
moving away from lower water availability and crop productivity, and
coastal areas with rising sea levels and storm surges. This projection may be
especially important for the Philippines, which is visited by an average of 20
typhoons per year and has experienced five of the strongest tropical cyclones
in history—four of which were experienced just in the last 10 years (Masters
2020).
Migration
Globally, the number of external or international migrants was estimated
at 272 million in 2019, equivalent to about 3.5% of the global population;
this is up from 2.8% in 2000 and 2.3% in 1980 (UN 2020). Of the total
international migrants in 2019, some 84 million are in Asia, 82 million in
Europe, 59 million in North America, and 27 million in Africa. About 60% of
these migrants moved for work reasons. The still-large income differential
between most origin and destination countries, the better standards of living
in many destination countries, robust migrant networks, labor shortages in
some developed but ageing countries, and the declining cost of travel have
contributed to the high—and still burgeoning—level of global migration.
About 40% of all international immigrants in 2019 came from Asia, and about
half of these Asian migrants moved to other Asian countries (IOM 2019). In
absolute numbers, the Asian countries with the largest number of migrants
abroad are India and China, but a large number of Asian immigrants also
came from Bangladesh, the Syrian Arab Republic, Pakistan, the Philippines,
Afghanistan, and Indonesia.
Pre-COVID-19, international migration was expected to continue to grow

across Asia and the rest of the world given demographic pressures, more
open borders and greater ease of travel, and the existing disparities in income
and economic opportunities across countries. However, the pandemic has
resulted in travel restrictions and other constraints that halted migration
in many existing corridors. In fact, the crisis could potentially result in the
displacement and return of millions of migrant workers to their countries of
origin (ILO 2020).
For the Philippines, which has depended on foreign remittances since

the 1980s, the latest reports as of November 2020 show that over 250,000
overseas Filipino workers were repatriated since the onset of the pandemic
(DFA 2020), affecting not just household incomes, but also economic mobility.
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PAGTANAW 2050
Indeed, for as long as the COVID-19 threat is present, international migration

is unlikely to pick up. Further, the longer-term effects of the pandemic on
international migration remains uncertain.
Poverty
Global and regional poverty have rapidly declined over the past three
decades. Global extreme poverty (based on Purchasing Power Parity
$1.90-a-day poverty line) declined to 10% in 2015—the latest year for which
data is available—from 36% in 1990 (World Bank 2020b). The reduction in
poverty cuts across all regions of the world, but very unevenly.
Extreme poverty in East Asia and the Pacific experienced a steep drop from
61% in 1990 to only 2% in 2015, and further, to just one percent in 2018. In the
Sub-Saharan Africa region, in contrast, extreme poverty declined only slowly
to 42% in 2015 from 55% in 1990.
Sustained economic growth in many developing countries, particularly

in Asia, is credited with a large role in global poverty reduction (World
Bank 2016). In East Asia and the Pacific, China drove most of the poverty
reduction, with a rapidly industrializing economy that grew by 10% annually,
and created millions of jobs every year. The jobs benefited not only urban
workers, but also rural workers and their households, via internal migration.
Extreme poverty in China dropped from 66% in 1990 to only half a percent by
2016.
People with lower education, who live in rural areas, work on farms, and are
part of big households are still over-represented among the poor (Dugarova
and Gulasan 2017; World Bank 2020b). Despite rapid urbanization in most
developing countries, poverty is still predominantly a rural phenomenon,
accounting for nearly two-thirds of total national poverty.
In the Philippines, poverty reduction in the three decades preceding the

COVID-19 pandemic was slow compared to the rest of East Asia and the
Pacific—particularly Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam. The proximate
reasons for this low rate of poverty reduction were the country’s
comparatively slower economic growth, high population growth, and high
inequality in the distribution of incomes and opportunities. Indeed, what was
peculiar in the Philippine case was the country’s relatively weak response of
poverty reduction to economic growth, even after controlling for the level of
economic growth (Balisacan 2019).
Prior to the COVID-19 crisis, it was estimated that global extreme poverty
could be halved and, possibly, eliminated by 2030, if developing countries
maintained recent per capita income growth and the growth was shared
broadly across the population (Granoff et al. 2015).
But with the COVID-19 crisis, an additional 110 to 150 million people
worldwide could be pushed into extreme poverty in 2020 and 2021, which
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will raise extreme poverty incidence by as many as four percentage points by

2030, compared to the no-pandemic scenario (World Bank 2020b). In East
Asia and the Pacific, extreme poverty is projected to increase by 5 million to 9
million people in 2020.
Separately, the World Bank (2020b) estimates that climate change could
potentially raise global extreme poverty by 68 to 132 million people by 2030,
depending on the scope and severity of the climate-change impacts.
The channels through which climate change are expected to impact poverty
are agricultural productivity, food prices, natural hazards, the effect of
extreme temperature on outdoor workers’productivity, and health issues
(World Bank 2020b). Some forecasts are even bleaker, such as the Overseas
Development Institute’s forecast of 720 million more poor between 2030 and
2050 because of climate change (Granoff et al. 2015).
Moving forward, it is expected that there will be greater focus on

multidimensional poverty, which looks not only at income poverty but also at
lack of access to education (attainment and enrollment), health (longevity),
and basic infrastructure (electricity, connectivity, sanitation and drinking
water). Here as well, progress has been uneven across countries and across
dimensions.
According to the World Bank (2020b), circa 2017, the multi-dimensional

poverty headcount ratio was at 14%, and deprivation was relatively still high
in sanitation and educational attainment, especially for Sub-Saharan Africa
and South Asia. East Asia and the Pacific scored poorly relative to other
regions (except Sub-Saharan Africa), in access to safe drinking water.
Economic Inequality
Some caveats on availability and quality of data limit the precise
measurement of income and wealth inequality, and how they have moved
over time. But some studies find that income inequality has significantly
declined among countries but risen within countries in the past 25 to 30 years
(Bourguignon 2017; Milanovic 2018).
The decline in inequality among countries has been attributed to rapid

economic growth in some developing countries with very large populations,
especially China and India, and their rapidly expanding middle classes
(Milanovic 2018).
Meanwhile, income inequality within-country was found to have increased

compared to a quarter of a century before in the majority of developed
countries and some of the largest developing countries, in particular, again,
China and India, but also Indonesia (Bourguignon 2017).
Atkinson et al. (2011), using historical income tax data, found that the income
share of the top one percent in many developed countries has substantially
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gone up over the previous three decades. Dugarova and Gulasan (2017)
further argue that if the rise in inequality within-countries continues, it could
possibly raise global inequality again.
The factors that have been identified to have exerted significant upward
pressure on inequality are tax policies that favored the rich, globalization, and
skill-biased technology that disproportionately benefited those with higher
skills, and those who had higher income or wealth in the first place (Alvaredo
et al. 2013; Bourguignon 2017; Milanovic 2018; World Bank 2020b).
On the other hand, where inequality has declined, the factors that were
found to have contributed to the decrease were public transfers, progressive
taxation, and minimum wage policies (Dugarova and Gulasan 2017). The
quality of economic growth has been found to matter as well, i.e., whether it
creates many jobs or not, and who have access to those jobs, in determining
the impact of economic growth on inequality.
The COVID-19 crisis could exacerbate income inequality, as it pushes firms

to rapidly automate to minimize risks and reduce demand for low-skill and
typically lower-income workers (Stiglitz 2020). Given that the pandemic has
forced schools to shift to remote learning, which disadvantages students
with poor digital access, or who go to schools which are ill-equipped for
such a shift, and whose parents lack the education or skills to provide home
learning—all likely to be students from low-income households to begin with,
its impact can be long-term and even intergenerational.
On the one hand, the digital economy has been a growth accelerator for
smaller businesses. On the other hand, it may increase inequality should
essential digital platforms further weaken workers’bargaining power. As
evidence indicates, rising inequality can disrupt social cohesion and breed
socially unproductive rent-seeking activities. This disruption and economic
waste tend to undermine the sustainability of economic growth.
Governments have tools at their disposal to tame inequality, moving forward.

Granoff et al. (2015) sum up the key areas for interventions:
(a) boosting the human capital of the poor
(b) allowing the poor to accumulate assets
(c) improving pro-poor infrastructure and services
(d) increasing employment opportunities for the poor
(e) enhancing governance and political representation
Milanovic (2018), meanwhile, has made the case that global inequality (and
poverty) can be further reduced via a more open labor migration policy.
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Science, Technology, and Innovation as Enabler
STI play a key role in addressing the various dimensions of poverty and
the highly inequitable distribution of opportunities in the Philippines. If
harnessed well, STI can open up economic opportunities for the rapidly
growing labor force, improve population mobility and human capital
especially for the less well-off families, and mitigate and prevent the adverse
effects of climate change, and advance institutions and governance toward
shared prosperity.
Specifically, STI can make food and health systems more efficient,
sustainable, and accessible to all, particularly the poor. It is key to solving
the current health crisis and preventing future ones. Cleaner and more
sustainable energy, water, and transport technologies will also enhance
conservation efforts and prevent further environmental degradation. STI
will also create more adaptable shelters, transportation systems, and other
physical and digital infrastructure, which will not only protect vulnerable
populations, but will also make the economy more resilient to future natural
hazards.
Realizing the potentials of STI as an enabler of the economy and of society

demands the government’s strong commitment to mainstream STI effectively
in the nation’s vision, plans, and policy implementation for long-term growth
and development (see also Section 3).
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SECTION 2.2
CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXPLOITATION
OF NATURAL RESOURCES: POLLUTION,
GLOBAL WARMING, AND INCREASE IN
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
Nature is vital to the achievement of the interconnected Sustainable

Development Goals (SDGs) related to poverty, hunger, health, water, cities,
climate, oceans, and land (SDGs 1, 2, 3, 6, 11, 13, 14, and 15). However, the
current negative trends in biodiversity and ecosystems will most likely derail
the progress towards achieving 80% of targets of SDGs (UNCCD 2017).
Planetary scale challenges came to the fore in the last couple of decades.
There is an increasing realization among scientists and policymakers that
the current trajectory of“development”is unsustainable. While rising gross
domestic products (GDPs) are being recorded in many countries, natural
ecosystems are being modified and natural resources are being depleted
at unprecedented rates. This is manifested in worsening air quality and
increasing air temperatures in most countries of the world, including the
Philippines. Poor air quality is common in many large urban areas and air
temperatures have been on upward trend for the last few decades.
Air Pollution
One of the negative impacts of economic development and urbanization
is increasing air pollution. As might be expected, Metro Manila is the most
polluted area in the Philippines. Based on a national emissions inventory
conducted by the Environmental Management Bureau (EMB) in 2015, the
majority (65%) of air pollutants in the country originated from mobile
sources, such as vehicles. About 21% and 14%, were from stationary sources
(e.g., power plants) and area sources (e.g., open burning of solid wastes),
respectively, about 88% of air pollutants are from mobile sources with 10%
from stationary sources and 2% from area sources. The major pollutants
from mobile sources are volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide,
gases such as sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides from stationary sources, and
particulate matter from area sources (DENR-EMB 2019).
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXPLOITATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES
The main piece of legislation addressing air pollution is RA 8749, or the Clean
Air Act. In compliance with the law, the EMB has implemented the following:
• Designation of airsheds throughout the country.

• Establishment and operationalization of the Air Quality Management
Fund.
• Establishment of Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Network
nationwide.
• Emissions inventory every three years.
• Management of mobile and stationary sources.
Climate
Rainfall. The country’s rainfall pattern varies according to geographical
location, as well as seasons. Since the 1950s, the total annual rainfall has
increased in areas like Central Luzon, while it has declined in Northern Luzon
(Figure 2.2_1). Extreme rainfall has declined in most parts of the country.
Figure 2.2_1. Observed Trends in Annual Total Rainfall and Extreme Rainfall in the
Philippines during the period 1951-2010.
Source: PAGASA (2018)
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Air Temperature. The country’s air temperature has been steadily warming,
with an average increase of 0.68°C over the past 65 years (Figure 2.2_2). This
is consistent with the global warming trends, which have been attributed to
the rise of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous
oxide. Since the start of the industrial revolution, average global temperature
has risen by about 1°C (IPCC 2018).
Figure 2.2_2. Air Temperature Anomaly in the Philippines from 1951 to the Present.
Extreme Weather Events. While there are no significant differences in the

number of tropical cyclones entering the Philippines and making landfall
since 1951 (Figure 2.2_3), there has been a minimal increase in the number of
tropical cyclones with maximum winds of more than 170 kph (DOST-PAGASA
2018).
Figure 2.2_3. Annual Number of Tropical Cyclones in the Philippines from 1951 to 2015.
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Adaptation to climate hazards. The Climate Change Commission (CCC), the

Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), the Department
of Science and Technology (DOST), and the Office of Civil Defense are the key
government agencies addressing the climate hazards. Other departments are
also addressing climate change impacts on their plans and programs.
There are numerous adaptation practices and technologies available for

minimizing the impacts of climate hazards. For example, the Philippine
Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
(PAGASA) has steadily improved its capability to forecast tropical cyclones
and heavy rains through the use of computer simulations and radar
technology. The CCC has launched education campaigns to inform the public
of the dangers posed by global warming.
Land State and Trends of Global and Sub

Global Terrestrial Natural Resources
Land is a principal resource on which biodiversity, livelihoods, supply of food,
freshwater and other ecosystem services, depend. Use of land for various
activities directly affects more than 70% of the global, ice-free land surface
(IPCC 2019a). Land also plays an important role in the climate system being
a source and a sink of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and plays vital roles in the
exchange of water, nutrients and aerosols between the land surface and
the atmosphere (IPCC 2019a). Figure 2.2_4 shows how land productivity is
influenced by land use change largely associated with forestry, agriculture
and urban development (UNCCD 2017).
Figure 2.2_4. A Time Graph Showing Typical Changes in Land Use due to Human
Settlement and Expansion.
Source: Jägermeyr et al. (2017)
Specifically, land use change is largely driven by tropical deforestation and

agricultural expansion, temperate reforestation or afforestation, cropland
intensification and urbanization (Song et al. 2018). Among these, agricultural
expansion is the most widespread form of land-use change, with more than a
third of the global land surface being used for agriculture (UNCCD 2017).
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Between 25% and 33% of the land’s potential net primary production is
already being used for food, feed, fiber, timber, and energy. One study
estimated the total annual value of the world’s terrestrial ecosystem services
is approximately equivalent to the annual global GDP (IPCC 2019a). Land use
has also been linked to the emergence of bat-borne Nipah virus in Malaysia,
cryptosporidiosis in Europe and North America, and a range of food-borne
illnesses globally.
Increasing tropical deforestation, along with infrastructure and urban

development, modifies natural habitats and the transmission of infectious
diseases such as malaria in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. In addition,
disturbance of wildlife habitats is a growing concern, since 75% of human
diseases have links to wildlife or domestic animals (Foley et al. 2005).
Forests. The total forest area of the world is 4.06 billion hectares, which
currently roughly translates to 0.5 ha per person. Forest area as a proportion
of total land area (SDG Indicator 15.1.1) decreased from 32.5% to 30.8%
between 1990 and 2020 representing a net loss of 178 million hectares of
forests.
However, the average rate of net forest loss declined by roughly 40% between
1990–2000 and 2010–2020 (from 7.84 million ha per year to 4.74 million ha per
year), the result of reduced forest area loss in some countries and forest gains
in others (FAO 2020). Given this, the world is not on track to meet the target
of the United Nations Strategic Plan for Forests (UN 2017) to increase forest
area by 3% worldwide by 2030 relative to 2015 (FAO 2020). In large parts of the
biodiverse tropics, 32 million hectares of primary or recovering forests were
lost between 2010 and 2015 (IPBES 2019).
The extent of tropical and subtropical forests is increasing in some countries

but is decreasing in others, while the global extent of temperate and boreal
forests is generally increasing. The continuing decline of tropical and
subtropical forests in some countries is driven by economic development,
technological and demographic factors, expansion of agriculture, grazing
and urban development. Among these drivers, agricultural expansion is the
most influential (Annunzio et al. 2015; FAO and JRC 2012). About 70%-95%
of forests loss in the tropics are due to conversion to agriculture (Holmgren
2012).
Forests play a vital role in the mitigation of climate change by sequestering

carbon and storing it in biomass form. Forests absorb 2.6 billion tons of
carbon dioxide each year, about one-third of the carbon dioxide released from
the burning of fossil fuels (IPCC 2014).
On the other hand, deforestation is one of the major sources of GHG

emissions, contributing around 20% of the total GHGs in the atmosphere.
Conversely, climate change is one of the significant drivers of forest
degradation and deforestation. Most of the drier regions of the world
experience reduction in forest cover due to increased forest fire occurrences,
outbreaks of pests and diseases triggered by excessive warming and drying. In
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other regions, climate change positively contributes to enhancement of forest

growth and expansion of forest cover due to increase in precipitation and
carbon fertilization.
Sustainable forest management, forest landscape restoration, and forest law

enforcement are proven strategies for keeping forests healthy and resilient,
and to restore degraded forests and deforested areas to their multifunctional
state. Healthy forests help reduce GHGs in the atmosphere through carbon
sequestration while, at the same time, providing a variety of services essential
to a secure, progressive, and resilient people.
Biodiversity. Biodiversity is one of the pillars of sustainable ecosystems,

because of their ability to provide an array of services that are essential to a
progressive and secure society. However, global biodiversity is under siege
by combined pressures from land use change, climate change, pollution,
and invasive alien species (IPBES 2019). Land use change is mainly driven
by agricultural expansion and overexploitation, and to a lesser extent by
tree plantation development, grazing, and human settlements that lead
to deforestation, and forest degradation and fragmentation (Figure 2.2_4).
Climate change-induced disasters and other disasters due to natural hazards
also cause forest fragmentation.
Consequently, the average abundance of native species has declined by at

least 20% in most major terrestrial biomes with potentially harmful impacts
on ecosystems and their services rendered to people. Most of this decline
began in 1900 and is likely accelerating. Native biodiversity in areas of high
endemism has often been negatively affected by invasive alien species.
Populations of wild vertebrate species have tended to decline over the last 50
years on land, in freshwater, and in the sea (IPBES 2019). On average, species
continue to move closer to extinction. Nearly 25% of species of well-assessed
taxonomic groups totaling one million species are threatened with extinction
unless the drivers of biodiversity loss are significantly reduced.
Wild animal populations have shrunk by more than two-thirds since 1970,
and have continued to decline since 2010. The number of extinctions of
birds and mammals would likely have been at least two to four times higher
if conservation actions were not taken over the past decade (UNCBD 2020).
Significant progress has been achieved in improving the understanding of
the biosphere since 2010 through progress in the generation, sharing, and
assessment of knowledge and data on biodiversity, big-data aggregation,
advances in modelling, and artificial intelligence. However, major imbalances
remain in the location and taxonomic focus of studies and monitoring.
Information gaps remain in the consequences of biodiversity loss for people,
and the application of biodiversity knowledge in decision making is limited.
Agriculture. Most of the arable lands of the world are already in use.
However, there are still sufficient land resources that can be developed and
made productive with the provision of adequate resources and reversal
of the neglect in agricultural research and development in recent decades
(FAO 2009). The challenge is that the remaining land resources that can be
developed are unevenly distributed across the world.
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Agricultural crop production has increased almost threefold since 1970 and
was valued at USD 2.6 trillion in 2016. Currently, productivity in 23% of the
global terrestrial area has been reduced by land degradation that puts at risk
between USD 235 billion and USD 577 billion in annual global crop output due
to pollinator loss (IPBES 2019). Infrastructure and urban development already
cover 60 million ha (UNCCD 2017) and are likely to have encroached into crop
lands. Soil erosion and drought are also significant causes of agricultural land
degradation, and this is exacerbated by climate woes.
Soil. The likely range of global soil erosion by water is 20 to 30 gigatons per
year while tillage erosion is about five gigatons per year. Rates of wind erosion
are highly uncertain with around 430 million ha of drylands being particularly
susceptible. Erosion rates on hilly croplands in tropical and subtropical areas
may be as high as 50 to 100 tons per ha per year, with a global average of 10-
20 tons per ha annually (FAO and ITPS 2015).
Major impacts of soil erosion include loss of soil fertility, siltation of rivers,
lakes, farms, coastal and marine areas, and water quality degradation.
Soil loss, which is rich in soil organic carbon is also a major source of GHG
emission that fuels climate change (FAO and ITPS 2015). Conversely, climate
change is a major factor of soil loss by enhancing rainfall in areas with lots
of rainfall, and by impinging on water supply in dry areas where rainfall is
decreasing.
Timber. There is sufficient global timber supply from industrial forests of

about 1.2 billion ha half of which is in high-income countries and only 8% in
low-income countries (UNCCD 2017). Up until 2005, global forest plantations
have been increasing, with the largest increase taking place in Asia, among
the major timber producing regions in the world.
Expansion of global forest plantation from 1990 to 2005 is projected to

sufficiently meet the growing global demand for timber that is expected to
more than triple in 2050 compared to 1990 estimate (Ince 2010; Cuong et al.
2020). In 1990, forest plantations in Asia covered around 29 million ha which
increased to approximately 45 million ha in 2005 (Ince 2010). The expansion
of forest plantation in Asia is, however, uneven across sub-regions, with
the largest expansion taking place in East Asia, courtesy of the aggressive
plantation development program of China. In some countries of Southeast
Asia like Vietnam, the increase in forest plantation has also been remarkable,
and is attributable to strong national and local government support.
Most tropical forests are still not managed sustainably (UNCCD 2017).
Given that the right policies and governance mechanisms are put in place,
sustainably managed natural forests could provide additional sources of
timber in the future.
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Global Status and Trends on Coastal and

Marine Resources
The oceans cover more than 70% of the earth’s surface and form the largest
life-support system of the planet. The ocean also provides various ecosystem
services. It nurtures biodiversity; stores carbon and stabilizes the climate.
It directly supports human well-being through food, minerals and other
industrial materials, energy resources; and cultural and recreational services.
The contribution of ocean-based industries to economic output and

employment is very significant. In 2010 this was valued very conservatively at
USD 1.5 trillion, or approximately 2.5% of world gross value added. Direct full-
time employment in the ocean economy amounted to around 31 million jobs
in 2010. The largest employers were industrial capture fisheries, with over
one-third of the total and one-quarter from maritime and coastal tourism.
Growth of these industries is expected to accelerate.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates

that, by 2030, USD 3 trillion will be generated annually from ocean sector
industries. Ocean industries are anticipated to employ approximately 40
million full-time equivalent jobs. Strong growth is expected in marine
aquaculture, offshore windmills, fish processing, and shipbuilding and repair
(OECD 2016).
Given the rapid development, scaling-up and diversification of uses of the

oceans on the one hand, and the deteriorating health of the ocean on the
other, a holistic“blue economy”approach has been put forward by the
international community to consider the health of the oceans and seas, and
to balance the three dimensions of sustainable development: economic,
social and environmental (UN 2016a). This new paradigm of ocean economy,
balances the long-term capacity of the assets, goods and services of marine
ecosystems, and considers social inclusiveness (World Bank and UNDESA
2017).
Key Drivers and Impacts. The expansion of economic activities in the

ocean is driven by the increase in global population, economic growth, and
advancements in technology. Technological advancements over the past
decades have rendered even the most remote parts of the ocean accessible—
including discovery of new, valuable resources in the deep seabed. The
intensification of the use of the oceans will further threaten the already poor
health of the oceans and, thus, the long-term sustainability of the ecosystem
services from the sea.
Development in coasts and oceans are impacted by activities related to

acquisition of food, materials and use of space for various activities. The
coasts and nearshore waters are also very vulnerable to land-based pollution,
in particular agricultural run-off, chemicals, and macro- and micro-plastic
pollutants that feed into the ocean from rivers.
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Climate change has encompassing impacts, given the strong interaction

between oceans and atmosphere. Resulting environmental changes (increase
in temperature, sea level rise, ocean acidification) will directly affect the
spatio-temporal patterns of biotic (e.g., distribution and abundance of
biodiversity including fishery resources) and abiotic resources (e.g., energy
sources—temperature, wind) and human activities at global and regional
scales.
Source of Food. With the increase in global population, food demand is also
rising. Food from the sea has an important role in food security and global
supply. Production from the wild fisheries and farmed species in the ocean
accounts for 17% of the global production of edible animal protein (Costello
et al. 2020).
However, exploitation of fishery resources has exceeded sustainable levels

in many regions. The decline in the productivity of the oceans is further
exacerbated by pollution and climate change (Barange et al. 2018). Likewise,
the expansion of marine aquaculture (mariculture) production to supplement
production for seafood is constrained by climate change and concerns on
sustainability given the new or increased pressures on marine ecosystems,
i.e., aside from pollution, infectious diseases and the related emergence and
spread of drug-resistant pathogens (Reverter et al. 2020).
Source of Raw Materials. Apart from living resources for food, the ocean
encompasses a wide range of biotic, abiotic, and intangible resources
(Jouffray et al. 2020). Marine organisms are sources of raw materials for
industries other than for food (e.g., seaweed derived products, ornamental
trade). Moreover, with the advent of biotechnology and technologies for the
exploration of the deep sea, access to marine genetic resources from areas
beyond nation jurisdiction (ABNJ), which include vast areas of the deep
sea—including poorly-known habitats (hydrothermal vents, sea mounts) with
unique assemblages of organisms, are currently hotly contested. Recognizing
the legal gap in managing resources in ABNJ, an international legally binding
treaty was developed under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the
Sea (UNCLOS) (Rabone et al. 2019).
Of the abiotic resources, the oil and gas sector is the largest ocean-based
industry. Nearly 70% of the major discoveries of hydrocarbon deposits
between 2000 and 2010 happened offshore, and as shallow-water fields
become depleted, production is moving toward greater depths. Aside
from exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbons, the prospects for vast
quantities of natural gas hydrates as well as rich mineral resources in deep-
sea mining has propelled unprecedented expansion from exploration to
exploitation.
Contractors’ interest in claiming large tracts of seafloor with exclusive rights

for exploration increased from just eight in the first four decades (1970–2010)
to 25 in the next four years (2011–2015) (Sharma 2017). The International
Seabed Authority (ISA), was established in 1992 to regulate human activities
on the deep-sea floor beyond the continental shelf.
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To date, 27 contracts for mineral exploration have been granted,

encompassing a combined area of more than 1.4 million sq km. However,
many of the regions identified for future seabed mining are already
recognized as vulnerable marine ecosystems (Miller et al. 2018).
Space for Various Uses. Infrastructure to support extraction of food and

materials such as fishing boats, aquaculture farms, offshore platforms and
deep-sea mining equipment, all require space in the ocean. However, the
ocean space also provides the basis for a multitude of other activities at sea
such as shipping, pipelines and cables, renewable energies, conservation,
tourism and recreation, reclamation, territorial boundaries and associated
military activities. Exploitation of Natural Resources and Climate Change
The phenomenal rate of change of activities for extraction of food and

materials and the diversified need for space over the past 50 years, with
a sharp acceleration at the onset of the 21st century, are intensifying the
pressure on the ocean and leading to a range of synergistic, antagonistic, and
additive interactions between these different uses (Jouffray et al. 2020).
Mitigating Measures and Opportunities. The diverse uses of coast and

ocean resources, and the dynamic spatio-temporal changes affected by
anthropogenic factors as well as natural factors, emphasized the need for
better governance systems for human activities in the ocean space at all
scales of governance from global to the local. Several of the interlinked UN
SDGs are essential in relation to the ocean and seas, Goal 14—‘Life below
Water’—specifically addresses marine issues (UN 2016b).
An Integrated Ocean Management (IOM) is the overarching framework

for a holistic, ecosystem-based, and knowledge-based approach meant to
ensure the sustainability and resilience of marine ecosystems and coastal
communities. At the same time, this integrates and balances different ocean
uses to optimize the overall ocean economy, as well as maintain and further
develop the effective sector-based management of ocean industries.
Successful implementation of IOM requires a good understanding of different

contexts, including local knowledge, environmental conditions, and scaling-
up of local actions. In addition to local considerations, there are universal
opportunities for action identified to help achieve IOM for a sustainable ocean
economy as follows (Winther et al. 2020):
• harness science and knowledge
• establish partnerships between public and private sectors
• strengthen stakeholder engagement and stewardship
• improve capacity-building
• implement regulatory frameworks
• encompass climate change and other environmental changes in
adaptive management system.
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SECTION 2.3
NAVIGATING THE NEW GLOBALIZATION:
THE PHILIPPINE PERSPECTIVE
Deep structural“mega-trends”have been sweeping across the world, notably

the emergence of a new era of“digital globalization”.These changes promise
to re-shape international economic linkages, just like the previous waves of
globalization relating to trade, finance, and people. This new globalization
is linked to the 4th industrial revolution, which sees automation, artificial
intelligence, the internet of things (IoT), and other technological trends not
just reshaping the world economy, but also creating disruptions and spurring
innovations in the social and political spheres.
However, the new globalization has been interrupted by the COVID-19

pandemic, which has affected over 200 countries and territories. It is crucial
to understand whether the interruption will be a brief one or a mere blip.
The uncertainty related to the pandemic and to certain political factors (e.g.,
return of populism in many economies) may point to a protracted adjustment
period for broader globalization trends.
From a Philippine perspective, it is critical to understand the implications of

these waves of change which are sweeping across the world.
Intended as an evidence-based foresight analysis, we map the main features

of globalization and outline some initial policy directions, with a particular
focus on science and technology. Its main recommendations include focusing
on the Philippines’efforts at building back better from the pandemic in areas
that would improve on inclusive recovery from the pandemic, and on more
inclusive development during the post-pandemic period.
In addition to the COVID-19 pandemic, natural hazards also disrupted

activities in the Philippines such as volcanic eruptions, consecutive strong
typhoons, earthquakes, and other phenomena that might be related to
climate change. More science-based support is recommended to pre- and
post-disaster initiatives to mitigate risks, minimize losses, and strengthen the
adaptive capacity of institutions in the country.
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Navigating the New Globalization: The Philippine Perspective
Globalization and the Fourth Industrial

Revolution
Globalization has been a double-edged sword: it provided opportunities
for innovation, economic development, and transformation of political
communities, but also caused disruption and human suffering for some
groups through diseases, conflicts, and financial crises (Sachs 2020).
The initial phases of globalization were characterized by the movements of

people, goods, and finances. This is now shifting to the soaring flows of data
worldwide—a phenomenon called“digital globalization”(McKinsey Global
Institute 2016). After almost four decades of steady increases in global trade
as a share of gross domestic product (GDP), the 2008 international financial
crisis triggered a slowdown.
In 2019, global trade was at 60.4% of world's GDP, close to the 60.8% estimate
before the 2008 crisis. When one examines the flows of goods, services,
and finance as an aggregate (and as a share of world GDP), there has been
tapering off since 2010. We expect this to remain this way or drop even more
during the pandemic (Figure 2.3_1).
The Fourth Industrial Revolution (FIRe) fuses the physical, digital, and
biological domains through technology, embedding it not only within
societies but also in the human body (Schwab 2016). The FIRe is characterized
by breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, biotechnology,
three dimensional (3D) printing, and the internet of things (IoT) among other
spheres (Schwab 2016).
Percentage (%) or % of GDP
Figure 2.3_1. Flows of Goods, Services, and Finance as % of GDP.

Source: McKinsey & Company (2018)
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Cross-border data flows further fuel trade and investments across

countries, creating new areas for productivity enhancement and wealth
creation. McKinsey Global Institute (2016) notes:“The amount of cross-
border bandwidth that is used has grown 45 times larger since 2005. It is
projected to increase by an additional nine times over the next five years
as flows of information, internet searches, online communications, video,
online transactions, and intracompany internet traffic continue to surge. In
addition to transmitting valuable streams of information and ideas in their
own right, data flows help to facilitate the movement of goods, services,
finance, and people.”(Figures 2.3_2 and 2.3_3) Virtually every type of cross-
border transaction now has a“digital component”.Yet these, too, raise new
challenges, as the benefits of digital trade are premised on trust, which raises
issues of regulation to protect privacy, consumer welfare, and secure data
management (Casalini and Lopez Gonzalez 2019).
Figure 2.3_2. Cross-border Bandwidth Growth Data

Source: McKinsey Global Institute (2016)
Figure 2.3_3. Digital Platforms Interconnecting People and Firms Across Borders.
Source: Statista (2020)
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NAVIGATING THE GLOBALIZATION: The Philippine Perspective
Across countries, there is wide variance in institutional readiness to underpin

this trust. Within countries, and across firms, there is also wide variance
in online access networks. In other words, the contours of this round of
globalization are not as“flat”as previous eras—uneven governance and
institutional quality, and disparate access to technology across and within
countries augur less equal participation in this globalization round. Yet,
clearly, the impact will be felt worldwide whether a country participates or
not.
In the post-COVID-19 world, it is more likely that this part of international

trade will increase further and faster, fueled in large measure by online
connectivity that has become more important under lockdown conditions.
Analysts predict that consumer behavior may have begun to permanently
change under the“new normal”,with e-commerce within and across borders
playing a much larger economic role.
While most developed countries are already adapting to the changes brought
by the FIRe, the situation will be different for developing countries like the
Philippines. According to the Readiness for the Future Report of the World
Economic Forum, the Philippines is classified as a“legacy country”,which
means a strong production capacity is present in the country (WEF 2018a).
However, the Philippines is also at risk of future shocks due to its weak
institutional framework, human capital, and innovation capacity.
Some aspects of the FIRe are already present in the country, with several
industries and government instrumentalities adopting technologies to
expedite processes and supplement capabilities. For instance, the Armed
Forces of the Philippines used drones for surveillance and reconnaissance
during the Marawi Siege in 2017, which helped in their operations (Franco
2017). 3D-printing is also on the rise—the first 3D-printed hotel was erected
in 2015 in Angeles City, Pampanga (Tablang 2015). In terms of financial
technology, platforms such as GCash have over 20 million registered users
and 63,000 partner merchants nationwide, making financial transactions
more efficient for Filipinos (Philippine Daily Inquirer 2019).
Unequalizing Trends: From ‘Flat World’ to

‘Regional Trade, Tourism, and Investment
Bubbles’
The COVID-19 pandemic has interrupted globalization, and it may have
erected additional economic, political, and health challenges for many
countries, increasing the possibility that there will be varied progress in
establishing the conducive institutional frameworks for fully engaging in the
FIRe.
Rather than multilateralism, increased regionalism may become even

stronger in the post-COVID-19 world, akin to the tourism and trade bubbles
now being promoted as part of coping strategies for countries that band
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together in terms of their relative success in dealing with the pandemic

(Locker 2020). Such trends may exacerbate inequality in several ways,
particularly in the Philippine context.
Poverty and Hunger During the‘Great Lockdown Recession’
The social inequality among Filipinos became more pronounced as the

coronavirus pandemic in the Philippines quickly shifted from a health crisis to
an economic recession.
As the country was put into lockdown, thousands of businesses were forced
to temporarily stop operations and, consequently, lay off millions of workers
who had to rely on the government’s meager financial support for their
survival.
In July 2020, adult unemployment in the Philippines rose to 45.5% from

17.1% in December 2019—equivalent to 27.3 million unemployed Filipinos
(SWS 2020b). While skilled workers were able to continue their employment
through a work-from-home setup, less-skilled workers, especially those that
perform manual labor, are the most exposed to the infection risk.
Clearly, there is an emerging divide between highly adaptive and skilled

workers who can work more safely from home and maintain their productivity
and jobs, and the mass number of less-skilled workers who suffer more
shocks from the pandemic, and continue to face relatively higher risks under
the“new normal”.
The ‘Matthew Effect’ in Education
As part of the measures set in place by governments to contain the virus,

face-to-face interactions were prohibited, which prompted schools to
move their classes online. Yet, according to the National Information
and Communications Technology Household Survey 2019, only 17.7% of
households nationwide have their own internet access at home, and 24%
have communal cellphones but only two out of 10 have communal computers
(DICT 2020). The necessity to push online learning is likely to spur innovations
in online education which may introduce cost-effective models that could
last beyond the COVID-19 crisis. However, experts fear that the crisis is
likely to exacerbate the“Matthew effect”:a deepening inequality in access
to education and quality of learning across the digital divide (Burgess and
Sievertsen 2020; UNESCO 2020).
In addition, there is growing recognition of the necessary retooling of the

education system so that countries go well beyond mere“emergency remote
teaching”,with key investments in both hardware (classroom connectivity)
and software (notably proper teaching skills build-up). Such an education
system can also be better prepared for any future pandemic, providing more
options in education, with potentially fewer disruptions in learning and
education outcomes.
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Even without considering the digital divide, there is already an existing

inequality in access to education in the country and this is evident in
assessment results. In the 2018 Programme for International Student
Assessment results, the Philippines scored below the average in reading,
mathematics, and science among 79 participating countries from the
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries (OECD
2019a). The result also noted that“socio-economically advantaged students
outperformed disadvantaged students in reading by 88 score points”(OECD
2019a).
Automation and Jobs
A disease outbreak may end up accelerating many aspects of FIRe through

several channels.
First, robots do not catch a colds and, in an era of global pandemics, there
is a distinct advantage behind manufacturing, transport, and other systems
that are less impacted by disease outbreaks and the means through which
these are contained. Some analysts argue that automation is likely to have
received a dramatic boost from COVID-19 (Morgan 2020). Social distancing,
quarantines, travel restrictions, and lockdowns will create massive
inefficiencies in the economy (e.g., a sub-optimal number of passengers
in airlines, shoppers in malls, riders of mass transport, and even fewer
workers in manufacturing). All of this will likely intensify the need to invest in
increased efficiency-enhancing tools and technologies, possibly through big
data and the IoT.
Furthermore, some of the responses for fighting COVID-19 are also drawn
from the FIRe, offering a demonstration effect on how useful these new
technologies are: tele-medicine, contact tracing applications, AI-powered
and big-data enabled epidemiological simulations, and automation in retail,
hospitals, and various other sectors (Khagram 2020).
Meanwhile, in the Philippines, even before the pandemic, analysts were

already predicting that over 18 million jobs could be automated, raising the
challenges of strengthening education, re-skilling for better job-matching,
boosting innovation, and ample social protection and training mechanisms
during the adjustment period (see among others, Albert et al. 2017; Dadios et
al. 2018; and Moraje 2017).
According to the results of a survey conducted by an American consulting

firm in June 2020, 80% of firms in the Philippines had ongoing digital
transformation programs while 20% have not started or did not have any
plans for digital transformation (Grant Thorton 2020). Among the top five
industry respondents, business process outsourcing (BPOs) had the highest
number of completed projects while manufacturing was one of the industries
without plans for digital transformation projects. The ongoing or completed
projects for BPOs were process automation (83%), data analytics (63%),
and enterprise software implementation (63%), while cloud services or
infrastructure migration (50%) are the projects they want to prioritize next
(Grant Thorton 2020).
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Analysts forecast millions of new high-quality jobs created as part of the FIRe,
and the Philippines is well placed if it has an effective game-plan to compete.
The Debt Burden
As the COVID-19 pandemic dramatically impacts the Philippine economy,

and given the increased reliance on debt-financed public sector responses,
Filipinos will have to bear the burden of the increasing debt for the
government’s COVID-19 response.
According to the Finance Department, gross borrowings will reach over PhP
3 trillion in 2020, PhP 3.03 trillion in 2021, and PhP 2.32 trillion in 2022, and
these borrowings will increase the country’s outstanding debt to PhP 11.98
trillion in 2021 (De Vera 2020).
Although the loans can help fund the government’s efforts to respond
effectively to COVID-19, future generations will have to shoulder this liability.
Economic growth must continue to outpace debt growth in order for the latter
to be sustainable. Moreover, governance will be key so that the investments
and spending do not suffer from considerable leakages.
Poor Governance and Weak Institutions
The global pandemic has disrupted many economies, yet emerging evidence
suggests that the severity of its impact can be mitigated by the relative quality
of the governance environment.
A novel study by Chien and Lin (2020) empirically examines the links across
governance (proxied by the World Bank’s Governance Indicators) and relative
effectiveness in containing COVID-19 spread (proxied by daily cumulative
confirmed cases) and they found evidence that:“countries with better
governance had a more rapid increase but a shorter outbreak period than
countries with fair or worse governance by 19.6 to 22.3 days. Most countries
with better governance (84%) revealed a declining trend in COVID-19
incidence, while such a trend was less than half of fair and worse governance
countries (38.5%–41.7%)”(Chien and Lin 2020). Countries like New Zealand,
South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam are now seen to have implemented
relatively effective responses to the pandemic, underpinned by strong
systems and institutions, and effective leadership (Dayrit and Mendoza 2020).
While we only have prima facie evidence at this early stage, we hypothesize
here that economic actors may start differentiating across governance and
institutional environments, producing“bubbles”of trade, investment and
tourism ties among countries (and within their jurisdictions) with similarly
strong systems, excluding those without.
In terms of the quality of e-governance systems, the performance of the

Philippines improved significantly from 2014 to 2016, but slightly deteriorated
between 2018 and 2020. According to the United Nations (UN) E-government
Development Index (EGDI), the Philippines ranked 77 out of 193 countries
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worldwide in 2020 (UN DESA 2020). The EGDI measures the capability of
governments to maximize technology in the delivery of public services. In terms
of the level of engagement of the government with citizens measured by the
e-participation index, the Philippines is at the 19th rank in 2018, 48 notches
higher than its 67th rank in 2016 (UN DESA 2018).
Some 93% of national government agencies in the Philippines have web

presence in 2017 (DICT 2019). Websites serve as the primary e-government
channel for information; automating government processes can enhance the
quality of service delivery to citizens and businesses.
One modernization initiative that may produce considerable benefits is the

automation of the transactions of the Bureau of Customs (BoC), which is
among the most corrupt government agencies (Presidential Anti-Corruption
Commission 2018). BoC received a PhP 4 billion loan from the World Bank
in October 2020 for the automation of processes, which will help strengthen
efficiency and improve the business environment by reducing face-to-face
interactions and delays and increase accountability (Lopez 2020).
Disasters, Climate Change, and Food Security
Between 1990 and 2018, the Philippines has been affected by 565 disaster
incidents, which have caused an estimated USD 23 billion in damages (Jha et al.
2018). The continual and increasing devastation brought by strong typhoons,
volcanic eruptions, and earthquakes not only constitutes significant socio-
economic losses but also threatens national security.
The projected climate change impacts on agricultural production in the country

is alarming. Rosegrant et al. (2015) estimated that the number of people at
risk of hunger will increase by 17% by 2050, per capita GDP will experience
losses of 10% annually, and that the total annual cost to the country’s economy
could reach over USD 3.5 billion. Furthermore, reduction in fish catch due to
environmental conditions, agricultural pests, disease of crops and livestock
remain issues in the sector.
Science and Technology for Inclusion: The

Main Ingredients for Policy Foresight
From a mapping of the policy context, there are additional factors to consider in
crafting a foresight strategy on technology and development.
First, globalization has been interrupted, and it is critical to understand whether

this will be a brief interruption or a mere blip. Due to the factors related to
COVID-19 and, perhaps, also the political environment (e.g., populism), this
may be a more protracted adjustment period for broader globalization trends
(Neuman 2020).
Second, in the immediate future, Asia and key large countries like China,
India, and Indonesia will be important, not just because of their economic and
population sizes (and their large emerging middle classes), but because of the
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important role they play in the global economy (ADB 2020a). Nevertheless,
geo-political risks also suggest that there could be some challenges ahead
for the region (McKinsey Global Institute 2016; Bisley 2020; Goto 2020; Oxford
Economics 2020).
While there was still uncertainty due to COVID-19 at the time this was written,
reformists should not be deterred from exercising bold foresight in building
the necessary elements for successful recovery from COVID-19 and the
lockdown recession, while also thriving under the mega-trends characterizing
the FIRe.
The FIRe is fast progressing in the physical, digital, and biological domains
and challenging the ability of nations and societies in managing the emerging
technologies. The scale and scope of the transformation is just starting to
be understood especially on how they will impact on systems of production,
management, and governance (Schwab 2016).
The disruptive technologies that have been identified by the US Council on

Competitiveness (2018) -
• biotechnology
• sensorization and internet of things
• big data
• artificial intellegence
• autonomous systems
• nanotechnology and new materials
will certainly have an impact on expectations of customers, on new and

improved products, on collaborative innovation and on organizational
systems (Schwab 2018). Also, there is an increasing investment in Space
Science and Technology coming both the public and private sectors in several
countries. These are all discussed in more detail in the section on operational
areas of this Foresight report.
The FIRe offers new opportunities to create new wealth. It is therefore

imperative that policies be instituted so that the manner of governance will
fit the modes of creating new wealth. Policies must promote sustainable
development, resilience, and competitiveness. Furthermore, a more open
economic environment will be crucial to helping facilitate investments into
the Philippines that carry with them the potential for new technology, hence
increased productivity and employment opportunities.
In view of these rapid and disruptive developments in science, technology,

and innovation, we need to have the numbers and quality of human capital
in STEM (Santiago et al. 2008), access to universal healthcare, capacity
for resilience during disasters, access to internet as a public good, and
institutions to facilitate technology transfer.
We need to institute policies that will maintain the knowledge infrastructure

that facilitates the seamless flow of information in the National Innovation
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NAVIGATING THE NEW GLOBALIZATION: THE PHILIPPINE PERSPECTIVE
System including market opportunities for Philippine products. In this

regard, the active participation of the micro, small, and medium enterprises
must be assured. An assistance system must be set up to guide the sectors
of the economy as they adopt new production technologies, produce new
products that can compete in the global market. The technological choices
that will be made by the Philippine government and private companies must
be consistent with our participation in the global effort to mitigate climate
change and our commitments to the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
Lastly, the greatest societal concern would be the growing inequality that may
result from the Fourth Industrial Revolution especially those who may not
have access to physical and intellectual capital (Schwab 2016).
Conclusion
To ensure that the Philippines can reap the benefits of the FIRe, the
government needs to increase and protect investments in human capital
by building a more crisis-resilient and inclusive healthcare system, and
equipping the vulnerable population with STEM education, as well as
specialized education to combat disinformation.
Government needs to be agile and innovative in creating new livelihood

opportunities as the disruptive forces in the economy start to operate.
Leveling the playing field should be accompanied by opportunities to earn a
decent living.
Lastly, barriers in technology adoption among businesses and populations

need to be addressed through flexible and adaptable government policies.
Promoting strong competition across sectors will be crucial in facilitating an
environment conducive to strong innovation and technology flows.
Taken together, all these investments emphasize how science and technology
can be a force for inclusion, and for lowering inequality. This policy
orientation will be critically important in the decades to come, particularly
as many mega-trends reshape economies and societies, on top of the
adjustments that COVID-19 already demands.
Underpinning all these technology strategies should be strong institutions

and good governance, given the double-edged nature of technology, and
the need to manage the inevitable disruptions triggered by this coming
globalization wave.
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SECTION 2.4
SPACE EXPLORATION
The unique view from space has driven great advances in knowledge that
spurred innovation and discoveries that have greatly benefited mankind.
Space has enabled a global perspective that has been used to address many
of the critical issues that are confronting humanity especially anthropogenic
environmental and climate change. These issues have been exacerbated
by the exponential increase in population that has caused severe stress on
our natural resources and the environment. The desire to respond to the
needs of a growing population has also led to the use of energy sources and
transportation systems that have caused serious pollution of the environment
and increases in greenhouse gases that are expected to alter the climate.
To meet these challenges, many countries have launched satellite Earth

Observing Systems (EOS) in order to collect much-needed global data that
can be used in the study of Earth’s climate and environmental system through
phenomenological and modeling studies. Satellites have also revolutionized
worldwide navigation and telecommunications systems and have greatly
improved our mobility and the ability to communicate with each other
globally.
Benefits of Space Technology and

Exploration
Satellite EOS were launched in recent decades to help address pollution and
deforestation.
Among the specific challenges that need to be addressed are the constant
basic need for freshwater and food, and the anticipation of and response to
natural disasters. Through space technology, it is possible to detect sources
of pollution that affect the quality and availability of freshwater for domestic
use; we need such information to effectively manage water supply. Satellite
data can also be used to monitor extent and yield of agricultural crops.
The ability to detect and quantify precipitation and soil moisture has also
provided guidance on how to optimize agricultural productivity. Satellite data
have also led to accurate forecasts of extreme events that have significantly
improved risk management, leading to considerable decline in deaths and
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Space Exploration
property loss. The data have also been useful in the management of flooding,
landslides, soil erosion, coral bleaching and harmful algal blooms.
The military applications of satellite data are likewise legion but are usually
classified. We can mention here only the publicly-known uses for military
strategies, such as the ability to detect ships, aircraft, submarines and
possible intrusions into our territorial waters. The use of high-resolution data
(<3 meters) also allows for the characterization of enemy troop movements
that enables the military to be prepared for impending attacks.
The enormous applications of space technology to the needs of the

civilian population cannot be ignored. In industry, technology transfer
led to the availability of precision global positioning satellite systems
that drastically improved navigation, crystal silicon solar power cells that
provide clean energy, long-lasting tires for vehicles, small cameras that are
now incorporated in smartphones, ski boots, laptops, computer mouse,
wireless headphones, home insulation, thermoelectric de-icing system for
aircraft and electrolytic water purification system for swimming pools and
domestic needs. In medicine, space technology has led to the development
of ultraviolet-blocking sunglasses, computerized axial tomography scans,
cochlear implants for hearing aid, ear thermometer and foil blankets. The
development of safe pre-packaged foods and freeze-dried technology
initially intended for astronauts have also led to the commercialization
of these products for general public use. A quantitative summary of the
extent to which different sectors of society benefit from space technology
is depicted in Figure 2.4_1. It is apparent that among the most frequently
cited are overall economy, environmental management, transport and urban
planning, research and development, and science and climate monitoring
and meteorology (OECD 2019b).
Figure 2.4_1. Selected Sectors that Benefit from Socio-economic Effects Derived from
Space Investments.
Source: OECD (2019b)
Notes: The literature covers 77 impact assessments and programme evaluations published between 1972
and 2018.
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DIGITAL ARTWORK
Deep Sea Analysis

Primary conceptual idea by Julius Sempio
Art by Jerome Suplemento II
In the not-too-distant future, humans and machines will work together

to explore the fullest extent of the Philippines’rich and extensive marine
resources. While unmanned research equipment will be invaluable for
gathering and processing large volumes of data, there will still be a need
for us to visit these unexplored frontiers for ourselves. Here we anticipate
the deployment of robot drones that utilize biomimicry to enable them to
unobtrusively observe deep-sea flora and fauna. These drones could be set to
work over vast areas for extended periods of time, guided by the occasional
supervision of trained divers equipped with their own specialized vehicles
and tools.

SECTION 3
Setting Sights on the Future:
Philippine Goals and Aspirations
PAGTANAW 2050
SECTION 3.1
THE UNITED NATIONS SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT GOALS AND FUTURE
EARTH PHILIPPINES
The United Nations (UN) General Assembly in 2015 decided to adopt

17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (Figure 3.1_1) intended for
global achievement by 2030. These were born from the eight Millennium
Development Goals that aimed primarily to“halving the world’s extreme
poverty rates, stopping the spread of HIV/AIDS and providing universal
primary education.”The SDG agenda has become a blueprint for galvanizing
efforts to meet the needs of the world’s less-developed and poorer nations,
a“shared vision of humanity and a social contract between the world’s
leaders and the people.”
In the Philippines, being a maritime and archipelagic nation, the SDGs could
be considered the bible for implementing development plans from the lowest
level to the highest level of government. The indicators of the 17 SDGs are
used as achievement benchmarks by the government, non-government
organization, and academic institutions. The SDG committees or groups have
been established in the legislative and executive branches of the government
with the National Economic and Development Authority and the Philippine
Statistics Authority acting as the consolidating and coordinating arm.
In 2019, the National Academy of Science and Technology, Philippines

through the leadership of National Scientist Lourdes Cruz sought to align
with the SDGs by developing the Future Earth Philippines Project—now
being proposed to be expanded into the Future Earth Philippines Platform
(FEPP). Patterned after the global Future Earth Program, the FEPP is focused
on implementing transformative and trans-disciplinary research and
networking, as well as in assisting in the achievement of the SDGs towards
having a“safe and healthy Philippines”(Figure 3.1_2).
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THE UN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS AND FUTURE EARTH PHILIPPINES
Figure 3.1_1. The 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals 2030

Source: Stockholm Resilience Center (2016)
Figure 3.1_2. The Future Earth Philippines Program and the Attainment of SDGs
Source: Azanza et al. (2018) as cited in FEPP (2019)
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Three Spheres of the SDGs and Science,

Technology, and Innovation support for
Sustainability and Productivity
The SDG indicators are inter-related and interactive, as seen in Figure 3.1_1,
where the environment/ biosphere is shown as a“bedrock”for sustainability
and productivity of the society and its economy. A degraded and non-
functioning or malfunctioning environment would not be able to provide the
resource base for societal needs. Science, technology, and innovation are vital
in the achievement of the SDGs to minimize, if not prevent, proliferation or
initiation of approaches and methods that have become non- supportive in
our changing world.
Multidisciplinary and trans-disciplinary systems analyses should consider

the society’s values and preferences. Science- based education on needs
and/or demands for old and new products will have to consider the current
status and future projections of our environment, society and economy.
The following approaches: sustainable consumption and production rates,
integration of environmental protection into the countries’developmental
plans and circular economy/bio-economy should be major components of
adaptive action plans.
The protection of biodiversity, especially in a maritime and archipelagic

nation, has been one of the major dogmas for sustained and resilient
productivity. More nuanced evaluation of temporally and spatially collected
data for global assessments towards the protection of biodiversity and
sustainable development is urgently needed; the currently prescribed
SDGs are inadequate in protecting biodiversity or are being masked off by
development indicators as pointed out by Zeng et al. (2020).
Holistic approaches to environmental sustainability that considers the

interconnectedness from the highlands to the oceans, have long been
put forward, and need serious consideration particularly in maritime and
archipelagic nations such as the Philippines. Proper governance at all levels,
with community cooperation are valuable for the SDG Knowledge to Action
Programs to succeed, hopefully in the earliest possible time before 2030.
Highlights of COVID-19 Global Impacts on

SDGs
The COVID-19 pandemic that started early in 2020 has affected the production
and analysis of data for the SDG 2020 Report. Data gaps have reportedly been
made serious, making the assessment of progress more difficult. The negative
impacts of the pandemic on the different goals made their achievement more
difficult in most countries. The following are highlights of the 2020 SDG report
and the major influences of the pandemic on each of the 17 SDGs:
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THE UN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS AND FUTURE EARTH PHILIPPINES
Goal No. 1: No Poverty. The pandemic pushed millions of people to

extreme poverty in 63 countries. Natural calamities and social conflicts
exacerbated poverty in some of these countries.
Goal No. 2: Zero Hunger. Climate effects and social conflicts have
been threats to food security with additional negative impacts from the
pandemic. An estimated 47 million under five years old are wasting, and
millions of the same age are stunted.
Goal No. 3: Good Health and Well-being. Less than half of the world
is covered by Health Systems. The pandemic has reversed decades of
health improvements, and it has interrupted child immunization in 70
countries.
Goal No. 4: Quality Education. Progress (for Inclusive and quality

education on lifelong learnings), although slow in some countries, has
been reversed by the pandemic. Remote learning is made difficult by a
lack of infrastructures and appropriate materials.
Goal No. 5: Gender Equality. Gender equality has made progress in

some countries. During the pandemic lockdowns increased violence
against women has been reported. Since more women have been on the
frontlines, their household burdens are heightened.
Goal No. 6: Clean Water and Sanitation. Before the pandemic, an

estimated one billion people lacked access to safe water and basic
sanitation facilities. Due to the pandemic, millions more could be
displaced by water scarcity by 2030.
Goal No.7: Affordable and Clean Energy. Pre-COVID-19 estimates

show that one out of four households in developing countries does not
have access to electricity; financial support to developing countries
for renewable energy source improvements has continued during the
pandemic.
Goal No. 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth. Before the pre-
pandemic, economic growth slowed down, but the worst happened
during the pandemic, making unemployment increase further due to
stoppage or closure of companies.
Goal No. 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure. Sustainable

industrialization and infrastructures almost came to a halt during the
pandemic with the deepest decline in aviation; lack of access to the
internet negatively affected innovation.
Goal No. 10: Reducing Inequality. The Gini Index, which measures the
distribution of income across a population, shows that the pandemic
further made the Gini index in 38 of 84 countries fall. Thus, making the
goal of reducing inequality less achievable by 2030.
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Goal No. 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities. In 2018, urban

population was reduced by 24% globally, making city life more
sustainable. However, the pandemic has affected urban cities the most
by making urban life less safe.
Goal No. 12: Responsible Consumption and Production. Consumption

and production rates in many countries are being slowly addressed by
the circular economy approach. However, it is now being hampered by
the pandemic in some areas where health concerns and food challenges
have increased.
Goal No. 13: Climate Action. Before 2020, 85 countries have aligned
with the Sendai Climate Change framework. A drop of about six percent
in greenhouse emission has been recorded during the pandemic, but
it is still short of the 7.6% reduction to lessen global warming by 1.5
degrees centigrade.
Goal No. 14: Life Below Water. Lack of data from some areas and
continued degradation of coastal and marine habitats before and
during the pandemic have been observed, but with the recuperation of
some resources during the pandemic, plastic pollution remains to be a
threat to life below water.
Goal No. 15: Life on Land. In 2020, forest degradation has been
estimated to reach 2 billion hectares worldwide, affecting about 3.2
billion people. Biodiversity conservation efforts have intensified.
Goal No.16: Peace and Justice Strong Institutions. International

cooperation for peaceful and safe societies has failed in some areas
where there are still internal and external conflicts.
Goal No. 17: Partnerships to Achieve the Goals. That “no one should
be left behind” through global partnership made possible, primarily
through the Overseas Development Assistance remained unchanged
until 2019 but this scheme could fall because of the pandemic since
many of the donor countries were likewise affected.
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SECTION 3.2
DEVELOPMENT PLANS: SOCIOPOLITICAL
ISSUES, FILIPINO ASPIRATIONS, AND
SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND INNOVATION
The social and political dimensions relevant to the pursuit of inclusive

development in a maritime and archipelagic Philippines are herein identified
to ensure inclusive growth and competitiveness that will benefit all Filipinos,
especially those in marginalized sectors.
The Philippine population, though still generally younger, will have started
to age by 2050, with 16% above 60 years old (Population Pyramid 2020). By
contrast, those who are born in 2020 will be young professionals by then.
Those younger than 30 years old will constitute 43.5% of the population. At
the same time, two-thirds of Filipinos (65.6%) will be residing in urban areas
in 2050, up from less than half of the population (48.6%) in 2010 (Navarro
2014). Such demographic transitions, along with patterns of economic growth
and urbanization, are all linked to development. However, to make this
development inclusive—a perennial challenge for the Philippine economy—
social and political considerations need to be taken seriously.
We also need to understand these issues in relation to our collective

aspirations as a people, for which science, technology, and innovation (STI)
will play a fundamental role in both charting and navigating our way towards
their attainment. In the latter part of this section, we endeavor to lay out
the historical precedents and future functions of STI in the context of nation
building.
Sociopolitical Issues
The following issues will be explained in detail: democratic challenges, youth
welfare, Bangsamoro concerns, and China’s persistent aggression. Although
not exhaustive, these have been identified given their long-term impact on
the ability of the Philippines to progress sustainably and equitably. Indeed,
by the time the Philippine population breaches 144 million in 2050, these and
other issues will continue to impact the country’s sociopolitics as well as its
economy. They demand immediate attention from social scientists and policy
makers.
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While these needs are already current, their consequences on Filipinos are
predictably complex and long-term. Addressing them early on will ensure that
economic gains are to be equitably shared. Each of these issues entails very
specific needs, which will be explained in detail.
Democratic challenges. Although the Philippines regained its democracy in

1986, much remains to be desired when it comes to the quality of democratic
participation among Filipinos. It is true that democratic institutions and
processes are in place. Institutions such as the different branches of the
government have been generally stable and processes such as the elections
honored.
However, this democracy is defective. Despite the fact that the Philippines
might officially be Southeast Asia’s oldest democracy, clientelism in politics
maintains the inequalities that have defined Philippine society for centuries
(Teehankee and Calimbahin 2020). At the same time, scholars have brought
up several concerns in recent years about the eroding quality of democracy
in the Philippines. The popular support for strongman rule, for example,
underpins the popularity of what Thompson (2016) considers“illiberal
reforms”in the name of law and order.
Indeed, campaigns against criminality, including the war on drugs and the
potential reinstatement of the death penalty, are widely supported, as they
relate to people’s fears and anxieties about security in their own communities
(Curato 2016). Within a context of impunity, these sentiments will linger in the
years to come, engendering distrust of state agencies mandated to administer
peace and order. At the same time, inequality sustains these sentiments, as
marginalized sectors feel that they cannot rely on the justice system to decide
in their favor. Reinforcing these sentiments are anti-deliberative discourses.
For one, statements made by public officials have de-legitimized the voices
of critical citizens (Rüland 2020). Also, certain policies may be inimical to
democratic participation.
Civil society actors have been alerted to the threat of the Anti-Terror
Law in silencing dissent among themselves. The work of“networks of
disinformation”that shape public opinion on social media can be added
to the list (Cabañes and Cornelio 2017; Ong and Cabañes 2018). Indeed,
disinformation in the form of“corrosive falsehoods”,“moral denigration”,
and“unjustified inclusion”has been shown to arrest the potential of
democratic conversations about pressing issues (McKay and Tenove 2020).
Furthermore, the call for greater democratic participation is intensified by

the transformation of the youth, who are increasingly alienated from politics,
as they are far more invested in personal economic advancement (Cornelio
2020a, b).
Taken together, these issues pose challenges for the future of democratic
participation among Filipinos, with respect to the values it demands.
These values include accountability, civil and political freedom, political
and economic equality, and deliberative capacity. The latter, in particular,
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recognizes the need for citizens to engage with differing perspectives in the
hope of coming up with conscious collective decisions (Curato 2015).
Youth Welfare. The second need concerns the future of the youth. The
Philippines will continue to have a young population by 2050, even as society
begins to show signs of ageing. Their overall welfare thus deserves particular
attention.
One area that needs intervention is political representation that can

effectively uphold their interests. This is much needed, given the inability of
Sangguniang Kabataan (SK) to attract their attention. In recent elections, the
SK failed to secure enough candidates for all open positions, and there are
no signs that this will improve in the future. While SK proves to be a useful
avenue for fostering political participation among the youth, this is not the
case in many communities around the Philippines, where they are socialized
into corruption by adult politicians (Ponce et al. 2013). Scholars in youth
studies are of the collective opinion that the future of political participation
rests on young people who are convinced that they can make a positive
difference in society (Schwartz 2010).
The state of education is another area that needs attention to ensure that
youth welfare is addressed. In the past decade, the government’s Pantawid
Pamilyang Pilipino Program, a conditional cash transfer mechanism, has
increased school enrollment (Catubig and Villano 2017). K-12 education was
also implemented with a view to preparing young people to become more
globally competitive as a workforce.
The long-term impact of these policies on national development has yet to

be seen (Adarlo and Jackson 2017). One critical area is not only sustaining
retention, but ensuring the quality of education that fosters critical thinking
and scientific consciousness.
At the same time, the quality of tertiary education is uneven across the
country. This is worth investigating, given the subsidies accorded to state
universities and colleges to foster universal education. Some scholars argue
that this is a strategic investment for the country (Lim et al. 2018).
Another area is the capacity of the job market to absorb this highly-educated
workforce in due course. Many advanced countries will continue to rely on
foreign labor, certainly an opportunity for highly educated Filipinos (Tan
2019).
Finally, the physical well-being of the youth will remain a formidable

challenge in the years to come. Malnutrition, stunting, and mortality are
connected to the problem of hunger that affects the most impoverished
families (Salvacion 2017). Securing their nutrition is directly tied to national
development interests. No less than economist Cielito Habito (2020) claims
that hunger is“a major factor behind our underdevelopment and historical
lack of economic dynamism relative to our regional neighbors.”After the
incidence of hunger among households had fallen gradually from 19.1% in
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2010 to 9.3% in 2019, it shot up again to 20.9% by mid-2020, as livelihoods

were severely disrupted by the government’s non-selective reactions to the
COVID-19 pandemic (SWS 2020b).
Bangsamoro concerns. The welfare of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region

in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) is the third socio-political need that will remain
imperative in the years to come.
In 2019, BARMM officially replaced the Autonomous Region in Muslim

Mindanao and adopted a parliamentary system with more powers devolved
from the national government. With an overhauled government, the region
aspires to progress economically and politically. While it is a culmination of
a long journey for a collective identity and lasting peace, the Bangsamoro
struggle is far from over (Caballero-Anthony 2007).
The region is the poorest in the country. This is true even after it registered
high economic growth rates in recent years. In 2018, its Gross Regional
Domestic Product grew by 7.2%, banking heavily on agriculture, hunting,
forestry, and fishing (BARMM Government 2019a). By the end of 2019,
many reforms were introduced, including the approval of the Bangsamoro
Transition Plan, the decommissioning of Moro Islamic Liberation Front
combatants, and wage adjustments (BARMM Government 2019b). Despite
these laudable developments, formidable challenges remain for Bangsamoro,
as it“has long been the most impoverished region in the Philippines, despite
its high economic potential by virtue of its rich natural resources”(Taniguchi
2020).
Based on the Family Income and Expenditure Survey in 2018, the average
annual family income in the region is PhP 161,000, the lowest in the entire
country (PSA 2018d). Poverty and subsistence incidence rates reveal the same
pattern. 61.8% of the population in the region are poor (PSA 2020c). The
biggest proportion are in the provinces of Sulu (82.5%) and Basilan (73.5%).
In terms of subsistence incidence, the region has the highest in the country,
at 23.3%. The most affected provinces are Basilan (34.1%) and Sulu (31.5%).
Worsening the poverty situation in Mindanao is the constant experience
with conflict. Conflict turns poverty into a chronic problem, as it destroys
livelihood, shelter, and communities (Malapit et al. 2003).
The Marawi Siege may have ended in 2017, but its repercussions are long-
term. Delays in rehabilitation have made it impossible for the city’s original
inhabitants to return and reclaim their property. Many continue to be
disenfranchised from the reconstruction process, thus engendering more
resentment. In conflict and peace-building studies, the participation of locals
in the reconstruction process is key in fostering ownership and preventing
the resurgence of violent extremism (Schwartz 2010). This much is true in the
experience of Moro youth (Cornelio and Calamba 2019). The persistence of
conflict and violent extremism remains due to the remnants of Islamic State
of Iraq and Syria Philippines in the region. Banlaoi (2019) warns that they can
“undermine the implementation of the BOL [Bangsamoro Organic Law, RA
11054], sow terror in Mindanao, and ensure that peace remains elusive.”
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China’s persistent aggression. Finally, the rise of China as a superpower

raises important social and political concerns for Filipinos in the future. As it
is, China has already asserted its military might in the West Philippine Sea,
which the Philippines has been unable to protect effectively.
To compensate for this inadequacy, the Philippines previously sought the

intervention of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in addressing
regional security matters. Under the current administration, the government
implemented a shift in foreign policy to appease China, hoping to generate
investments in the Philippines from China’s Belt and Road Initiative (de
Castro 2020).
But beyond the military, the aggression of China spells many other social
and political challenges for the Philippines, and Southeast Asia as a whole.
The first is the historical basis of the claim over the South China Sea, a
name that should be contested by the entire region. A cue could be taken
from the decision of the Arbitral Tribunal on the Law of the Sea that China’s
“9-dash line”is spurious. For Malik (2013),“China’s claim to the Spratly’s
based on history runs aground on the fact that the regions past empires did
not exercise sovereignty. In pre-modern Asia, empires were characterized
by undefined, unprotected, and often-changing frontiers.”The claim of a
“9-dash-line”is a narrative being perpetuated by the Chinese state among
its own citizens, since it is not accepted by any other country in the world.
A serious area of concern is the influx of new immigrants from mainland China
to the Philippines. This is a trend that is taking place all over the region, as
Chinese investments and business interests grow. The work of the Overseas
Chinese Affairs Bureau must be carefully monitored, as new immigrants have
engendered tensions not only with local Filipinos but even with Chinese-
Filipinos. For See and See (2019), Chinese-Filipinos“have acculturated and
integrated into the mainstream of their respective countries. To treat these
people as huiqiao, or consider them as‘assets’or‘secret weapons’of China,
risks not only stoking their resentment at the forced co-optation but may also
revive Cold War-era anxieties about their loyalties and allegiances.”
Filipino Aspirations
The above sociopolitical realities will influence future development
initiatives. It is important that we can relate these factors to our aspirations as
we chart solid paths towards the wellbeing of an archipelagic and maritime
nation.
The vision for science and technology (S&T), its role in national development,
and the strategic agenda for each discipline, industry, and sectors within STI
is situated within the context of a national vision for the country. Societal
goals and visions are important guiding principles for the direction and
objectives of any development agenda. For the country, these societal
ambitions are deeply held values and ambitions, reflected in policy, and in
fact, enshrined in the constitution. This section begins with the former, the
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current societal goals as expressed individual ambitions of Filipinos gathered

through a deeply consultative process. It is followed by a review of the legal
statutes that, though decades old, still reflect the findings of the AmBisyon
Natin 2040 initiative.
In 2015, the NEDA conducted a visioning exercise, a rigorous and methodical

national public consultation with Filipino citizens to inform the formulation
of a collective long-term vision for the country. It was not a vision only
by leaders and elites in the society; it represented the Filipino people’s
aspirations, for their country, for their families, and for their children’s
futures. The resulting vision statement and document is AmBisyon Natin
2040, a set of goals for the year 2040 that would ideally guide each political
administration’s agenda between 2016 and 2040.
As a people, the life that Filipinos want to have is stable, comfortable, and
secure. They are guided by strongly rooted values that place family, friends,
and community at the center. People are concerned about hunger, health,
education; they also aspire to provide for their children and their parents and
have a life free of worry and hardship. The vision statement at the level of
people is:
In 2040, we will all enjoy a stable and comfortable lifestyle, secure in the
knowledge that we have enough for our daily needs and unexpected
expenses, that we can plan and prepare for our own and our children’s
future. Our family lives together in a place of our own, and we have
the freedom to go where we desire, protected, and enabled by a clean,
efficient, and fair government.
What does this mean for the country? As a society, Filipinos’individual

ambitions for their lives add up to a country vision that provides equal
opportunities for all, allows prosperity that includes the poor and the
vulnerable, and brings the marginalized into the economic development of
the country. It is articulated in the Philippines’development ambition as:
By 2040, the Philippines shall be a prosperous, predominantly middle-

class society where no one is poor. Our peoples will enjoy long and
healthy lives, are smart and innovative, and will live in a high trust
society.
These same societal aspirations and the values that guide them are
enshrined in the 1987 Constitution. Articles II and III stress the central
importance of equality of opportunities and improvement in the lives of
the underprivileged. These have underpinned the goals and priorities of
all Philippine Development Plans (PDPs) over the years. In particular, the
priorities of national policies must include providing:
(1) a more equitable distribution of opportunities, income, and wealth

(2) a sustained increase in the amount of goods and services produced
by the nation for the benefit of the people
(3) an expanding productivity as the key to raising the quality of life for
all, especially the underprivileged
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Consistent attention is placed on the welfare of the poor. In 1997, RA 8425 or

the Social Reform and Poverty Alleviation Act was passed, and programs were
implemented through the National Anti-Poverty Commission. The law sought
to ensure that marginalized sectors participate in government decision-
making and stipulates that every poor Filipino family shall be empowered to
meet its basic needs such as:
• health, food and nutrition

• water and environmental sanitation
• income security
• shelter and decent housing
• peace and order
• education and functional literacy
• participation in governance
• family care
• psycho-social integrity
Filipinos have deeply rooted concerns for social and economic inclusion, for
building a country where nobody is poor, nobody is hungry, and nobody is
left behind. These remain relevant goals, more than 30 years after the 1987
Constitution was adopted. Inequalities in income, political participation,
protection from shocks, opportunity for upward mobility, access to justice,
and inclusion in civic life persist across social class, geographic boundaries,
and other social categories. One way to illustrate the depth of this inequality
is through income inequality, commonly measured through the Gini index.
The Philippine Gini coefficient—high by Asian standards—had not reduced
dramatically from 1997 to 2018 (Figure 3.2_1).
Figure 3.2_1. Philippines’ Poverty Incidence and the Gini Index, 1997 to 2018.
Source: PSA (2015b, 2015c, 2019d, 2020c)
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People’s aspirations, desires, and concerns are stable. These will change only
when real and inclusive economic and social progress is achieved. Filipinos’
core values inform what they believe should be the priorities of a nation and
its government. Even as governments change, as the country experiences
deep shocks and windfalls, and even as the global context may change, that
which the Filipino people hold dear and want to protect, will not. Thus, even
if the work that informed AmBisyon Natin 2040 is now five years old and the
Philippine constitution now over 30 years old, and even as the country is
shaken by COVID-19 and natural hazards (typhoons, floods, earthquakes), the
vision highly likely remains a relevant guidepost for Pagtanaw 2050.
Development Plans and Achievements

Through the Years
This section will cover only the developments from the Cory Aquino
administration to the present.
Since the beginning of democratic governance in 1987, government

development plans focus on improving living standards, reducing poverty,
achieving equitable growth, and making development environmentally
sustainable development.
The 1970s and early 1980s were characterized by deep global recession, sharp
falls in world prices of the country’s traditional exports, and internal political
turmoil punctuated by the assassination of Benigno Aquino, Jr. in 1983.
Following the economic crisis of 1984–1985 and the Marcos regime’s loss
of political credibility, a new government was voted in February 1986, with
Corazon Aquino as President.
The Corazon Aquino government’s development program stressed poverty

alleviation, generation of more productive employment opportunities, and
promotion of equity and social justice. The strategy adopted to achieve these
goals took a market-based development approach, calling for the removal
of policy biases against agriculture and the rural sector, and thus, improving
profitability of labor-intensive and agriculture-based non-traditional
exports (Balisacan 2003). It embraced an employment-oriented, rural-based
development strategy, with the Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Program,
as its centerpiece. However, although the administration’s central theme for
poverty alleviation was rural development, it failed to address the single most
important constraint to sustained rural development, namely the poor state
of rural infrastructure, particularly transport, electricity, and water, including
irrigation (Balisacan 2003).
Fidel V. Ramos’administration’s (1992–1998) key strategy was people

empowerment and international competitiveness through the development
of a skilled workforce, investments in human capital, and upgrades of
technology—most notably the Philippines’connection to the internet on
March 29, 1994 (DICT 2015). The plan was to pursue industrialization and
rapid growth in average incomes to achieve human development. People
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empowerment implied reliance on markets, entrepreneurship, innovations,

and growth-facilitating institutions. There was a Social Reform Agenda
(SRA) for achieving human development targets, a pioneering effort to
push the various government sectors toward securing the minimum basic
needs of families as a first priority. A package of government interventions
was organized around“flagship programs”for the country’s 20“poorest”
provinces. But the SRA failed due to policy implementation problems (Collas-
Monsod and Monsod 1999, cited in Balisacan 2003).
The Ramos administration plans included accelerating economic growth by

building the international competitiveness of domestic industries, reforming
regulation in services and industry in commercial banking, transportation,
and telecommunications, and investing in basic infrastructure. Large
and forward-looking investments in power generation and transmission,
transport, and communication were also made. Overall, economic growth
accelerated, and welfare of the poor responded respectably to this growth
(Balisacan 2003). However, the Asian economic crisis of 1997–1998, combined
with a severe El Niño, disrupted the momentum.
The brief period of the Estrada administration (1998–2001) had a pro-poor

and“growth with equity”agenda that recognized broad-based sustainable
rural development as a path to reduce poverty. The plan envisioned an
aggressive delivery of basic social development services, removal of
policy and regulatory distortions inhibiting resource allocation efficiency
and equitable outcomes, sustained development of rural infrastructure,
improvement in governance, and macroeconomic stability. A limited run of
its flagship program Lingap Para sa Mahihirap (Looking after the Poor) led to
poverty outcomes inferior to those of other schemes tried in the recent past
(Balisacan 2003).
The Macapagal-Arroyo administration’s (2001–2010) ascension to power

following the ouster of President Estrada gave birth to another program
for direct poverty alleviation, called KALAHI (Kapit-Bisig Laban sa Kahirapan
or Joining Hands against Poverty). This program engaged in asset reform,
provision of human development services, creation of employment
and livelihood opportunities, participation of so-called basic sectors in
governance, and social protection and security against violence.
Between 2000 and 2010, new jobs were created by the expansion of call
centers and business process outsourcing, information and communications
technology, tourism, and mass housing. creating new jobs, especially
in urban areas. The implementation of the Agriculture and Fisheries
Modernization Act (RA 8435 and 9281) to generate one million jobs in
agriculture and related industries was planned, but funding far fell short of
expectations. Self-employment and entrepreneurship were encouraged, with
special emphasis on micro, small, and medium-scale industries development.
Deregulating industries and privatizing government continued.
One new attribute of the plan was its emphasis on S&T and green production
technologies. The plan was to develop high value-added products — products
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which generate the most income for their Filipino producers — through
investments in S&T, for which a culture of research and development
would be fostered. There were efforts to step up the development of
microenterprises (very small family- and community-based businesses) and
small and medium enterprises, and promote clean production technologies
to minimize the environmental impact of industrial growth.
Arroyo’s scorecard showed that it failed to address key social and economic
challenges relating to persistent poverty and inequality. There were
improvements on the policy front, but many governance challenges and
social inequities largely left unaddressed (Rood 2010). It was further noted
that based on the World Bank indicators, chronic problems such as corruption
had worsened, which was deemed as a“key reason behind the Philippines’
anemic progress in economic and human development.”However, Arroyo’s
smart 2003“roll-on roll-off”maritime initiative, which brought down
the shipping cost among the Philippine islands by 30 to 40 percent, was
treated as a historic policy success. The lack of commitment to agricultural
development reflected the broader underdevelopment of the rural sector.
This contributed to a pattern of growth that left behind millions of Filipinos
and failed to make major inroads in poverty reduction.
The Benigno S. Aquino III Administration’s (2010–2016) development

plan centered on inclusive growth, defined as“growth that leaves no one
behind,”where poverty reduction was seen in“multiple dimensions”(NEDA
2011) and massive creation of quality employment as the desired outcome.
Strengthening the macroeconomic fundamentals was key to fostering
consumer and business confidence in the economy, resulting in sustained
high economic growth averaging 6.2% throughout the term as well as a
substantial reduction of poverty incidence from 39.4% in 2000 to 16.7% in
2018. Investment, both public and private, in the production sectors (i.e.,
agriculture, industry, and services) was regarded as a critical determinant
of the economy’s growth potential and its ability to create quality jobs.
This administration highlighted the role of science and technology policy
in influencing private investment in research and development to raise
productivity and expand the range of products and services produced in the
economy. The state of the country’s infrastructure (roads, ports, airports,
telecommunications, transportation, etc.) and the availability of a healthy,
highly trainable, and skilled labor force are important factors for a more
efficient business climate. Likewise, the plan mentioned the important
contributions of good governance, the high quality of natural environment,
and national security to the economy’s productive potential.
The Philippine Development Plans (PDPs) are plans; they reflect what
administrations intend to do. Outcomes of well-laid plans can only be realized
when accompanied by strong performance in implementation. The above
review of PDPs suggests a disconnect between development planning and
actual outcomes that has to largely do with limitations in governance.
Over the decades, the PDPs have been broadly responsive to changing
economic conditions and realities, including global trade and finance.
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However, the connection of development plans with budget decisions

and policy choices has been quite weak. Little attention was paid to the
governance that underlies effective implementation and success in the long
haul. The challenge, therefore, is to build governance institutions that ensure
the attainment of our aspirations.
The AmBisyon Natin 2040 was used to set development goals that would
guide each political administration over the next 25 years, starting with the
Presidential term of Duterte (NEDA 2016). These goals are defined along four
areas:
(a) Building a predominantly middle-class society

(b) Promoting a long and healthy life
(c) Becoming smarter and more innovative
(d) Building a high-trust society
(e) Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation (DRR CCA)
In pursuing these goals, the Duterte administration’s PDP 2017-2022 (NEDA

2017) strategic policies, programs, and projects to achieve the following
medium-term outcomes:
(a) The Philippines will be an upper middle-income country by 2022.

(b) Growth will be more inclusive as manifested by a lower poverty
incidence in rural areas.
(c) The Philippines will have a high level of human development by
2022.
(d) The unemployment rate will decline from 5.5% to 3.5% in 2022.
(e) There will be greater trust in government and society.
(f) Individuals and communities will be more resilient.
(g) Filipinos will have a greater drive for innovation.
Many of these medium-term targets and the long-term aspirations envisioned

in AmBisyon Natin 2040, are endangered by the massive disruptions caused
by the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, the health crisis and the sharp
economic contraction in 2020 have reversed gains in job creation and poverty
reduction in recent years. That could mean some lost years of socioeconomic
development. The challenge ahead is taking decisive actions to get the
economy to recover quickly and use the crisis as an opportunity for policy
and governance reforms to strengthen the health care system and make the
economy more resilient to shocks and risks.

Towards Inclusive Prosperity and A
Globally Competitive Knowledge Economy
Filipinos’top concerns are the fundamental problems of poverty, hunger,
equal opportunity, and financial security. As such, the strategic role of STI
to contribute to AmBisyon Natin 2040 is an enabling tool toward attaining
the country’s aspiration to be a predominantly middle-class society free of
poverty.
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Based on the national survey conducted for AmBisyon Natin 2040, most
Filipinos believe that the most important condition the country should strive
for by 2040 is that no one is poor (29%), no one is hungry (25.7%), and all
Filipinos should have a chance to get a job that adequately provides for their
needs (18.2%).
The prioritization for the country’s STI agenda can directly address some
of the critical constraints individuals experience in their daily lives. For
example, based on the qualitative group discussions that informed AmBisyon
Natin 2040, Filipinos aspire for their country affordable high-quality health
care and education, western-level development that respects Asian values,
an urbanized and modern and technologically advanced country, and
widely available welfare support. They want a just and fair society where
opportunities are available to all and progress is felt in all areas of the
country. STI can point to pathways toward improving public health and
medicine for the specific needs of communities or fostering innovation in
green growth and improving air pollution, for instance.
Instability is a part of Filipino life, and shocks to income and personal safety
require resiliency at the level of people, community, and environment.
Natural calamities, poor management of densely populated areas, and armed
conflicts are some of the sources of these shocks. Hazards are understood as
products of environmental degradation and pollution. As such, Filipinos place
much importance on conservation, environmental protection, and working
toward building sustainable communities that are resilient against natural
hazards. Those living in urban centers are concerned about how economically
oppressive it can be and how the emphasis should be on building“livable
cities.”These are all aligned with the goals articulated in [Section 4.1] on
green growth, marine conservation, blue economy, and other work meant to
contribute to the climate agenda.
Within this context where Filipinos’ambitions and constraints are clearly

articulated, how can STI best serve the demands and the needs of the
people?
STI can play a critical role in attaining these development goals by (UN
ECOSOC 2013):
• fostering access to knowledge

• increasing productivity
• industrialization
• economic growth
• creating decent jobs
• promoting health and access to essential drugs
• achieving food security through sustainable
• equitable agricultural systems
• raising production and incomes
• especially of smallholder farms
• promoting renewable energy technologies to respond to the dual
challenge of reducing poverty while mitigating climate change
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STI was first explicitly mentioned in the Macapagal-Arroyo PDP (NEDA

2004), with reference to green technologies and more environmentally
sustainable issues. The Aquino PDP (NEDA 2010) created space for private
sector investments in STI for job creation. The current administration is highly
supportive of STI and its role in attaining the Filipino aspirations.
Among the various goals and values reflected by the citizenry, two particularly
stand out as having a strong link to STI. The first is inclusive prosperity,
namely equal access to the most basic services that will allow people to
work toward their own betterment, such as knowledge or education, health,
and a long life, and the ability to compete for opportunities with others, on
equal footing, regardless of their social and economic backgrounds. Extreme
economic and political concentration in the country is deeply felt and
understood by many as a constraint not only on individuals but also on the
Philippines’ overall national development. Breaking the trend toward further
concentration, and pursuing equality in opportunity, will require a strong
contribution from STI to ensure that the opportunities it opens up do not
exclude those who have not had a good education or do not have access to
technologies.
Innovations can easily lead to more vast gaps between the haves and the
have-nots. This has been the pattern for digital divides, availability of quality
STEM education, or accessibility of cutting-edge medical care. How can
innovations be more inclusive? How can these be designed or incentivized
to specifically close gaps, allow the have nots to catch up, and for new
technologies to diffuse to all?
The second is the national goal to be a globally competitive knowledge

economy. What will the country need to move from being a service economy
to a knowledge economy? We will require investments in building intellectual
capital, in creating an environment where Filipino scientists, engineers, and
others have the tools, resources, and capacity to generate knowledge and
trade in it. STI will need to be strongly linked to other knowledge economies,
so that the country can evolve from trading in goods and labor to generating
productivity from intellectual property and innovation. More importantly, the
country will need to develop a corps of skilled workers with high-quality STI-
related education.
Whether competitiveness in the knowledge economies is something the

Philippines is prepared for at this point is, in many ways, influenced by
the global context. Development of STI to build a knowledge economy is
necessary, even just to catch up and not be left behind. Where it would best
serve the demands of Filipinos is in its focus on the subjects that people
need and care about, for instance, focus on building an STI ecosystem that
is specifically inclusive for those from poor families, or have a focus on
biodiversity conservation for the green and blue economies to protect the
country and its people from natural hazards. Thus, where PAGTANAW 2050
can meet AmBisyon Natin 2040 is in its focus areas and how well these serve
the people’s aspirations as a maritime and archipelagic nation.
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DIGITAL ARTWORK
Cityscape
Primary conceptual idea by Jerome Suplemento II
In the face of the world’s burgeoning population, urban planning has become
all but essential for ensuring the optimal efficiency and livability of the
world’s crowded cities. Current research has underscored the necessity of
green areas such as dedicated parks and pocket forests to the sustainability
of these cityscapes even while accounting for inevitable hazards such as
typhoons and earthquakes. This artwork visualizes a future Philippine city
that is planned and built with these hazards in mind, while integrating trees,
shrubs, and other flora into the urban landscape—so much so that some
structures are built with the specific goal of sustaining plant life as well as for
providing shelter for their human occupants. The Philippines’endemic flora,
from Rafflesia flowers to anahaw leaves, are also a rich source of inspiration
for engineers, designers, architects, and urban planners for new building
materials and livable designs.

SECTION 4
Facets of Philippine
PAGTANAW 2050
SECTION 4.1
THE BLUE ECONOMY
The oceans are the planet’s largest life-support system. They cover over 70% of
the earth’s surface, providing various ecosystem services; nurturing biodiversity;
storing carbon; and stabilizing climate. They directly support human well-being
through food, minerals, industrial materials, energy resources, and cultural and
recreational services. Several national and international strategies (e.g., Portugal
and EU) have espoused “Ocean strategies” and “Blue Economy” approaches to
ensure the long-term sustainability of both ocean ecosystems and the economy.
In July 2012, country representatives from East Asian Seas signed the “Changwon
Declaration”. They agreed to adopt the Blue Economy, defined as “a practical
ocean-based economic model using green infrastructure and technologies,
innovative financing mechanism and proactive institutional arrangements for
meeting the twin goals of protecting our oceans and coasts and enhancing its
potential contribution to sustainable development including improving human
well-being and reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities” (PEMSEA
2012).
The“blue economy”approach is imperative in the Philippines, an

archipelagic country with territorial seas that are twice the size of its total
land area (see Section 1.6, Geographic Features and Natural Endowments).
The coastal areas, where the majority of Filipinos live, are the centers of
many economic activities. The natural capital in the territorial seas and the
exclusive economic zone can contribute significantly to providing livelihood,
food security, materials, and vast opportunities for a sustainable and
prosperous blue economy (Azanza et al. 2017). The Bureau of Fisheries and
Aquatic Resources reported that in 2019, Philippine Fisheries production
consisted of 47.1% wild per capture and 52.9% aquaculture, mostly from
municipal waters (Tabios B 2019). Climate change impacts and other hazards
on the coasts that threaten the marine environment are predicted to worsen
in the coming years (see Section 4.10, Environment and Climate Change), and
thus should be part of adaptive development plans particularly with regard to
fisheries and aquaculture in the blue economy.
In the immediate future, the country should be able to prepare and

implement a comprehensive action plan for a National Coast and Ocean
Strategy, making the present Foresight for a science, technology, and
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The Blue Economy
innovation (STI)-based development of its blue economy a starting or shifting

point. This will allow the Philippines to anticipate and make important
changes to its national political, economic, and social spheres, as well
as to its stance vis-à-vis Asian neighbors and the rest of the world. The
National Academy of Science and Technology, Philippines (NAST PHL), in
preparing this Foresight has agreed to refer to the country as a“ Prosperous,
Archipelagic, Maritime Nation.”(Section 1.1, STI Foresight Framework) in
order to make the sea/ocean a unifying and driving force for our national
aspirations in the years to come.
Trends in Blue Economy and Impacts

As stated in Section 2.2, the Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development (2016) estimates that in 2010, ocean-based industries
contributed about USD 1.5 trillion or 2.5 % of the gross value added with
approximately 31 million jobs coming from the ocean economy in the same
year. Strong growth is expected such that, by 2030, 40 million full-time
equivalent jobs will be generated annually—mostly coming from marine
aquaculture, offshore wind turbines, fish processing, and shipbuilding
and repair. There is immense interest in ocean-based industries’growing
potential among public and private partnerships at various regional scales.
The related investment needs highlighted by governments across East Asia
are as follows:
• Coastal transport
• Ecotourism/sustainable tourism
• Energy
• Enterprise and livelihood development
• Fisheries and food security
• Habitat protection
• Restoration and management
• ICM development and implementation
• Natural and man-made hazard prevention and management
• Pollution reduction and waste management
• Water use and supply management
Filipinos are already culturally and practically entwined with our oceans.
About 60 million people currently live in low-elevation coastal zones, and all
of the big cities can be found right beside the coast. Several blue industries
already contribute significantly to the gross domestic product (GDP)(Table
4.1_1):
(1) Tourism, resorts, and coastal development

(2) Fisheries and aquaculture
(3) Coastal manufacturing
(4) Ports, shipping, and marine transport
(5) Ocean energy
(6) Seabed mining for oil, gas, and minerals
(7) Marine biotechnology and medicine
(8) Marine technology and environmental services
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PAGTANAW 2050
Table 4.1_1. Current Blue Industries in the Philippines

Known %
Current state
Industry contribution Potential development/Recommendations
and workforce
to GDP
Tourism 25 5.71 million workers Biodiversity-centric tourism
Fisheries and
20 1.6 million workers Integrated open water, multi-trophic aquaculture
Aquaculture
Infrastructure development, projected sea-level rise and
Manufacturing 19 300 thousand workers
modeled storm surge
229,000 seamen
Overseas Filipino Hanjin in Subic, Philippines considered as the fifth
Ports and Shipping 12
Workers and 8,000 local world’s largest shipbuilder
ports and shipping
Coal-fired thermal plants
Ocean Energy 11 now account for 43% of Has high potential for ocean tidal in-steam energy
the national energy mix
Oil, Gas, and Holds 3.48 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves as
7
Minerals of 2017, equivalent to 31.4 x annual consumption
Biotechnology and Basic research initiated High biodiversity offers high potential for medicine
Medicine in HEIs sources
Marine Tech and Unique archipelagic nature ideal as a marine technology
Env. Services testing center
Source: Azanza and David (2020)
The oceans also provide the majority of our daily food protein, amounting to
40 kg per capita per annum.
There are technical and logistical constraints, including the lack of scientific
knowledge and capability, that impede the development of these Philippine
blue industries. Other more commercially ripe technologies are still
unsupported by existing government and inter-government policies. We also
need to make sure that new arrangements for the development of these blue
industries will also include protection of the biodiversity in the areas that may
be impacted within and beyond areas of national jurisdiction.
Blue Economy Future Resources and

Technologies
A key strategy for securing the natural capital of the global blue economy
is the improved enforcement of adaptive strategies and management tools
which are vital for its recovery. Marine Protected Area (MPA)/MPA networks
can help preserve marine biodiversity, rejuvenate fisheries, and mitigate
the effects of climate change (Gaines et al. 2010; Cabral et al. 2020). More
than 1,800 MPAs have been established in the Philippines, but majority of
these are small (<1 sq km), protecting less than 1% of coastal waters and
less than 4% of coral reefs and associated critical habitats (e.g., seagrass
beds and mangroves) in the Philippines (Cabral et al. 2014; Weeks et al.
2010). Unfortunately, many of these MPAs are not strictly enforced or well-
managed (Alcala et al. 2008; White et al. 2014). Marine spatial planning has
not been practiced well if at all in many areas in the country. Despite these
shortcomings, there is growing advocacy to establish MPA networks (systems
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The Blue Economy
of many MPAs that protect a sufficient percentage of critical habitats) to boost

fisheries productivity and conserve biodiversity in the Philippines (Horigue et
al. 2012; Russ et al. 2020).
STIs are expected to play a crucial role in harnessing ocean resources for
the blue economy, while ensuring sustainability and understanding how
complex marine ecosystems will respond to climate change. Among these
technologies are (Table 4.1_2):
• innovations in advanced materials

• subsea engineering and technology
• sensors and imaging
• satellite technologies
• computerization
• big data analytics
• biotechnology
• nanotechnology
• marine spatial planning
• circular blue economy
The application of emergent and convergent technologies in the Philippines—

such as CAWIL.AI, an artificial intelligence (AI) coupled with underwater
tools that enables detailed analyses and monitoring of coastal and marine
ecosystems, and fisheries supply chains—is still at an early experimental stage
(Naval and David 2016) and is thus a promising avenue for targeted research
and innovation.
Table 4.1_2. List of Emerging Technologies for Sustainable Philippine Blue Economy
Blue Food and Blue transportation Digital Blue Blue Home Blue Education
Blue Energy
Medicine and Industries Ecosystems Technologies and Tourism
Blue biotechnology Bioluminescent
Promoting blue
Blue bioenergy for pharmaceutical, Advance Material Mutli-sensor household
ecosystem
through algal cosmetic, food, Research and Imaging of Blue and street
conservation via
biofuel production feeds, and Development Ecosystems lighting through
Internet of Things
beverages. biomimicry
Integrated Autonomous
Multi-trophic monitoring system
Aquaculture (e.g., autonomous
Precision underwater vehicles
Algal Rainwater Carbon Neutral
aquaculture Blue nano-materials or Unmanned
photobioreactors harvesting Resorts
(monitoring using Aerial Vehicles,
wireless mutli- remotely operated
sensors; robotics, underwater
mechanized) vehicles)
AI and other STI to Smart Shipping and Web-based Mapping
Membrane
improve monitoring e-Boats of Blue Environment S&T incubator
technology for
Algal photovoltaics and management S&T incubator and and marine
water treatment
of fisheries and marine technology technology hub
filtration
aquaculture hub
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PAGTANAW 2050

Blue Food and Blue transportation Digital Blue Blue Home Blue Education
Blue Energy
Medicine and Industries Ecosystems Technologies and Tourism
Geo-tagging
for migratory
Integrated species which
co-processing can be used
Microbial Fuel cell Wave disc engines
technology for for navigation
domestic wastes avoidance and
biodiversity
ecotourism
Micro-hydro
Blue Biojet Fuel Ultra capacitor
systems using
from Hydrothermal vehicles and
rainwater in high
liquefaction Process watercrafts
rise building
Integrated bio- Carbon dioxide to
Solar grey water
refinery in palm oil carbon nanotubes
disinfection
mill conversion
Nanotech
Ocean thermal
Carbon storage in improved Light
energy conversion
building material Emitting Diode
(OTEC)
lightbulbs
Underwater power Bioremediation and
Bioplastics
grid technology phytoremediation
(Plastic from
and subsea power for hazardous
crops)
systems. wastes
Smart water
Smart energy monitoring Rainwater
monitoring and
Aerogel insulation harvesting
network
technology
Electric and hybrid
Fuel cell vehicles and
watercrafts
Biomimicry inspired
Autonomous
wave and tidal
vehicles
energy
Tidal InStream Carbon dioxide
Energy Conversion collector for
(TISEC) vehicles
Source: Naval and David (2016); Labao and Naval (2019); Azanza and David (2020)
Towards a Philippine Coasts and Ocean

Framework and Strategy
Strategic, holistic, and trans-disciplinary coast and ocean science-related
education is important to advance the blue economy and a national coast
and ocean strategy. Further, a deep and wide review of relevant existing laws,
policies, and practices that need to be changed, revised or even simplified
should be the first milestone towards the achievement of an inclusive and
sustainable“Prosperous, Archipelagic, Maritime Nation.”
This vision should be incorporated into basic and professional education,

mass media, informal education, and the training of national and local
policymakers, educators, and practitioners. Human resource development
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The Blue Economy
through scholarships, specialized training, university research programs,

and partnerships will ensure the creation and application of blue knowledge.
Apart from blue technology development and education, the implementation
of laws and the promotion of good environmental governance are essential,
as is compliance with legally-binding treaties under the United Nations and
intergovernmental bodies relating to the use of ocean spaces (Azanza et al.
2017).
Integrated ocean management (IOM) is the overarching framework for a

holistic, ecosystem-based, and knowledge-based approach to ensure the
sustainability and resilience of marine ecosystems and coastal communities.
To optimize the overall ocean economy, IOM guides the maintenance and
further development of the effective sector-based management of ocean
industries. Successful implementation of IOM requires an understanding of
different contexts, including local knowledge, environmental conditions,
and stakeholder engagement and stewardship in the adaptive management
systems (Winther et al. 2020). The development and implementation of a
Philippine Coasts and Ocean Strategy should be a top Philippine government
priority.
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PAGTANAW 2050
SECTION 4.2
GOVERNANCE
In 1980, the Development Academy of the Philippines (DAP), the University

of the Philippines (UP)-Population Institute, and the UP School of Economics
collaborated to produce “Probing our Futures: The Philippines 2000 AD”. The
report offered alternative futures for the Philippines using extensive economic
and demographic data. It proposed that the Philippines was “in for a generation
of relative austerity” (DAP 1980).
Based on this assessment, the report pushed for self-reliance and participatory
democracy as values that Philippine society must embrace to achieve its
development aspirations. Decades later, despite significant economic strides,
these virtues remain aspirational in view of social and political initiatives to
address democratic challenges, youth welfare, Bangsamoro’s concerns, and the
aggression of China, as stated in earlier sections of this Foresight.
Good governance is necessary to address not only economic needs, but

also to foster critical and democratic virtues (Graham and Plumptre 2003).
To this end, scientific consciousness, critical thinking, and the ability to
express oneself must be encouraged. Greater appreciation for the use of
science and technology (S&T) in governance must be accompanied by a
critical (re)thinking of history, politics, culture, and society, for the Philippine
population to fully grasp the potential of democratic participation in an
increasingly diverse—and still unequal—society. Doing so can challenge the
spread of disinformation of and revisionist histories that uncritically celebrate
authoritarianism. Filipinos must also gain and retain a deeper appreciation of
the archipelagic and maritime nature of our geography, our relationships in
ASEAN and ongoing aggression of China into Philippine territory.
Technologies are now available to secure the integrity of government

institutions and our national territory in order to bypass clientelism in politics
and enhance the accountability of public offices and government officials.
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Governance
Select Technologies for Effective and

Efficient Governance
Governance is the exercise of power and authority to implement a
development agenda through“the management of a country’s economic
and social resources”(World Bank 1992). The World Economic Forum
characterizes good governance with the following features (Bruce-Lockhart
2016):
• Openness, transparency, and integrity

• Performance orientation
• Effective collaboration
Effective and efficient governance is necessary to establish an environment of
high workforce performance in both the public and private sectors. Strategic
technologies can be harnessed for both the government and private sectors
to provide quality services, minimize human errors, reduce unreasonable
bureaucratic procedures and unnecessary expense, and ultimately achieve
administrative efficiency and timely response. Reliable databases are also
important to be able to provide timely information and timely decisions.
Below are some key technology areas that will prove useful towards
promoting good governance:
Internet. There is a growing body of literature on the influence of the internet

on governance. The study by Khazaeli and Stockemer (2013) indicates that
access to the internet has a positive influence on government practices.
Political information can be distributed through the internet and feedback
from the citizenry will be available to the government. An informed citizen
will enable transparency to be sustained, so public officials will be inclined to
practice good governance.
National Identification System. This is a strategic technology to integrate

different government services and facilitate efficient access among the
public. Employing it in the voting process, for example, can render elections
more credible—especially in areas vulnerable to corrupt practices, including
double and ineligible voting. The national identification (ID) system can
also streamline access to government services by removing burdensome
additional requirements and documents. With the help of professionals
in information technology (IT), data science, and engineering, these
technologies can be harnessed to ensure that private data are secure and that
government transactions are beyond reproach.
The success of the national ID system is contingent on accessibility and

overall public trust in the integrity of the technologies involved. The state
must push for greater reliance on IT and artificial intelligence (AI) to minimize
discretionary interventions in government transactions.
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PAGTANAW 2050
Election Computerization. Aside from behavioral and management issues,

clean elections will certainly benefit from technology that includes national
voter registration systems; new methods of voting, such as the use of
telephones and online portals; and the assurance of system integrity and of
the correctness of computer programs. Software and hardware are already
currently available that could provide the appropriate storage size; facilitate
the pace of operations; and provide solutions that will assure the accuracy,
integrity, and reliability of information and communications technology (ICT)
and various attendant technologies.
A series of laws have been passed to regulate the conduct of a computerized

election system in the Philippines (RA 8046, RA 8436, RA 9369). These laws
provide the specific technologies to be used for the computerized election
system, from voter registration to the reporting of election results. However,
the system needs further improvement, as observers noted that the usual
problems—e.g., voter disenfranchisement as voter lists became corrupted
due to technological glitches—persisted despite the new technologies
(Schaffer 2009).
National Defense Technologies. One important government role is the

protection of Filipinos from national security threats. This involves the
creation of a strong system of defense. There are many aspects of our defense
system that need STI inputs, including:
• Secure and reliable communications systems

• Locally produced combat rations
• Survival technology for injuries and infections
• Technology to identify casualties
• Cyber-, spaced-based, unmanned, autonomous, and other complex
military systems, e.g., hypersonic weapons (Stone 2020) and laser
weapons (Lockheed Martin 2020)
• Unmanned vehicles and aerial systems
• Precision munitions
• Robust and secure military transport systems- land, air, and water
• Electro-optic/infrared countermeasures (Lockheed Martin 2019)
National Statistics System. To aid in decision-making, a robust and reliable

national statistics system must be established involving technology for data-
gathering, surveys, supporting statistical and numeric data services and
sources, description, evaluation, and analysis of data to arrive at statistical
patterns, trends, and relationships.
ICT-based Information and Documentation Services. Select technologies

could be used to file, store, and retrieve documents from the civil registry,
register of deeds, payment of fees and taxes, issuance, and the renewal of
passports.
Forensic Services. Adopt technology to promote precision in crime

detection, gathering of evidence, for combating cybercrime, and the
distribution and use of drugs of abuse.
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Governance
Customs Enforcement. Technology can be used to facilitate the rapid and

precise detection and evaluation of goods in compliance with customs rules
and regulations.
Humanitarian Emergency-Response Technologies. Remote sensing and

drones are just a couple of technologies that could be used for disaster risk
mitigation, estimation of extent of damage and to monitor environmental
degradation. Casualties whose bodies have been damaged beyond
recognition could be identified using DNA technologies.
Geographic Information Systems (GIS). This consists of a computer system

for capturing, storing, checking, and displaying data related to positions on
Earth’s surface (NOAA 2020). This facilitates the visualization, analysis, and
understanding of patterns and relationships, e.g., poverty mapping, cropping
intensity patterns.
Cultural Heritage Preservation Technologies. This is the main concern

of museums. The application of technology can enhance the experience
while viewing museum exhibits using digital experiences. The technology
for the preservation and authentication of museum pieces, historical and
archeological artifacts are vital to the sustainability of the museum that are
offered for public viewing.
Conclusion
The above list of select technologies is deemed to have a direct impact on the
effectiveness and efficiency of governance in the public and private sector.
While the burden of their use is on the government, the private sector must be
aware and be part of the initiatives to use these technologies in advising and
dealing with their publics.
The key goals of good governance—empowerment, inclusion, participation,

integrity, transparency, and accountability—are realized only if workable STI
solutions are adopted, drawn from experience (Sundaram 2015).
The realization of the aspirations of an archipelagic and maritime Filipino

nation can be facilitated if technologies for good governance are harnessed
to engender transparency and trust. Such an environment is vital for nation
building and national well-being.
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SECTION 4.3
BUSINESS AND TRADE
The access to and use of science, technology, and innovation (STI) have become
vital to improving the production of goods and services, as well as to the
facilitation of business and trade transactions. New products and processes are
major factors in the growth of economies, and technical change is brought about
by decisions of different economic units (Stokey 1995; Griliches 1992). Porter and
Stern (2002) further observe that competitive advantage “must come from the
ability to create and the commercialize new products and processes, shifting the
technology frontier as fast as their rivals can catch up.”
Economic Sectors
The Philippine economy is composed of three major sectors: Agriculture,
Industry, and Services, each with its own sub-sectors as shown in Figure 4.3_1
(PSA 2020a).
It is reasonable to surmise that, as of 2018, the 334,522 formal establishments

within the three sectors conducted their business using STI, one way or
another. Services comprised the largest economic sector with 89.1% of the
establishments, followed by industry with 9.9% and the remaining 1.0%
in agriculture (Figure 4.3_2). Other indicators such as Total Employment,
Revenue, Expense, and Value Added follow the same trend as the number of
establishments, with agriculture trailing behind significantly (PSA 2020a).
The use of STI is evident in the specific activities of all three sectors, and the
need for innovation to produce next-generation products is a big challenge to
their competitiveness. In 2018, the services sector accounted for the highest
value-added at 62.7%, while Industry and agriculture accounted for 36.5%
and 0.8%, respectively, indicating the level of innovation in each sector. This
should be a wake-up call to devote more attention to agriculture.
An example of the many opportunities for creating high-value products from

agriculture is the use of biocellulose, known to us as nata de coco, for the
vibrating membrane in high-end earphones that sold for as much as USD
6,000 each (Guttenberg 2013).
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Business and Trade
Figure 4.3_1. The Sectors and Sub-sectors of the Philippine Economy

Source: PSA (2020a)
Figure 4.3_2. Selected Statistics on Major Economic Sectors, 2018 CPBI

Source: PSA (2020a)
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Major Imports and Exports

Table 4.3_3 (PSA 2020b) shows the preliminary data about the growth of our
ten top exports, which require intensive STI inputs. Unfortunately, apart from
bananas and mineral products, the raw materials for the rest are imported
and just assembled and packaged in the Philippines (PSA 2020b). Thus, the
value-added is small, although the volumes are large.
Table 4.3_3. Top 10 Philippine Exports to All Trading Partners as of September 2020
Year-on-Year Growth
Major Commodity Group Annual Growth Rate (%)
Gainers
1. Cathodes and Sections of Cathodes, of Refined Copper 133.9
2. Other Mineral Products 73.3
3. Metal Components 1
32.9
4. Chemicals 25.9
5. Electronic Equipment and Parts 24.3
6. Other Manufactured Goods 5.4
7. Electronic Products 0.8
Losers
8. Bananas -32.9
9. Machinery and Transport Equipment -2.7
10. Ignition Wiring Set and Other Wiring Sets Used in Vehicles, Aircrafts, and Ships2 -1.0
Source: PSA (2020b)
Notes: Table shows preliminary data as of September 2020
1
excluding brakes and servo-brakes
2
consists only of electrical wiring harness for motor vehicles
The growth of our top 10 imports from our trading partners are shown in
Table 4.3_4 (PSA 2020b). As noted earlier, these are mainly semi-processed
or semi-assembled materials or completely built products brought in for our
factories to either assemble or package mainly because of competitive labor
costs but resulting in low value-added exports.
We must continue to pursue the development of higher-valued products from

our manufacturing and agri-business sector. It might be worth our effort to
establish our niche in bioindustries using materials that we can derive from
the farm, the forest, and the marine environment. The earlier example of a bio
cellulose product from nata de coco might be worth pursuing.
Given the profile of products that we import and export, the subsequent
discussions will cover the concerns related to enhancing our economic
efficiency and facilitating trade.
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Business and Trade
Table 4.3_4. Top 10 Philippine Imports from All Trading September 2020
Major Commodity Group Annual Growth Rate (%)
Gainers
1. Telecommunication Equipment and Electrical Machinery1 2.6
2. Electronic Products 2.4
Losers
3. Transport Equipment -53.0
4. Mineral Fuels, Lubricants, and Related Materials -51.4
5. Industrial Machinery and Equipment -23.3
6. Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles -23.0
7. Plastics in Primary and Non-Primary Forms -22.1
8. Iron and Steel -10.7
9. Other Food & Live Animals -4.4
10. Cereals and Cereal Preparations -0.2
Source: PSA (2020b)
Notes: Table shows preliminary data as of September 2020
1 includes telecommunications and sound recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment
Enhancing Economic Efficiency

Economic efficiency is fostered by many factors in our national life:
governance in both the public and private sector, infrastructure, transport,
energy, health, education and training, and international relations. Other
sections of this report deal largely with the issues related to the said factors
and will no longer be discussed here. Suffice it to say that all these have to be
managed on a whole-of-government approach.
With regard to governance, a functional innovation ecosystem relies on

a robust symbiosis involving industry, academia, and government. Close
links with industry result in a departure of university researchers from a
technology-push mindset to a more market-pull orientation. In 2015, the
Philippine Government University Industry Research Roundtable (PGUIRR)
was convened under USAID’s Science, Technology, Research and Innovation
for Development project based on a similar US model. This group, composed
of leaders from industry, universities, and relevant government agencies, was
convened to stimulate closer collaboration between the research community
and the eventual end-users, with government playing the role of a catalyst. In
addition, government can also play the role of influencing industry to account
for externalities—e.g., impacts of climate change and natural disasters—in
their decision-making. Establishment of a permanent group based on the
PGUIRR concept, the Science and Technology, Academe, Industry Research
Roundtable, is proposed to ensure seamless cooperation among the three
key sectors.
The recently-promulgated Philippine Innovation Act (RA 11293) is an

important initial step towards providing an enabling regulatory environment
for translating new technologies into new wealth. In addition to adoption
of new technologies by established players, technology-based start-ups can
assume an important role in translating research output into economic value.
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While the Philippines has yet to establish a track record of translating

scientific research into commercial products, the prospects can be improved
dramatically by considering the business community’s vital role as both
beneficiary and enabler of innovation.
Trade Facilitation
Globalization has opened up trade among many economies. Free trade areas
organized by various aggregations of countries are designed to overcome
the barriers that have inhibited the free exchange of goods and services.
Cross border flows of goods have promoted compliance with standards in
terms of product quality through Mutual Recognition Agreements (MRA)
to facilitate market access and encourage harmonization of compliance
standards to protect the consumer. In the case of services, the MRA refer to
the qualifications of professionals and skilled labor so they can practice their
professions in the countries that are parties to the agreement. For technical
and scientific professionals as well as for skilled labor, their education and
training both at the tech-voc centers and the higher education institutions
will determine the fitness of their qualifications with the standards. This is
covered by the section on talent development and retention.
The National Quality Infrastructure

Trade is one of the major routes in providing livelihood and reducing
poverty. However, our national capacity to trade is determined by our
competitiveness. In 2019, we ranked 64th out of 131 countries, sliding down
eight points from our 2018 ranking in the World Competitiveness Index .
The determining factor for the tradeability of Philippine-made products

is their quality. According to Botor and Echanove (2011), among many
other measures, a fully functional National Quality Infrastructure (NQI) will
“help ensure that the country’s products and services will comply with
international standards and the conformity assessment requirements of
trading partners, which could be barriers to trade.”The same report notes
that our“inadequate and poor quality infrastructure diminished the country’s
overall competitiveness and its capacity to attract investments.”
The NQI that is operated by both the public and private sectors consists of the
following physical and organizational structures:
• Metrology
• Product standardization
• Testing
• Certification
• Accreditation
Transactions have grown exponentially due to globalization, facilitated by

rapid innovations in information and communication technologies. These
technologies have been useful in disseminating updated information,
especially about the regulatory regimes and product standards of trading
partners.
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Business and Trade
The technologies for the detection of various goods have also advanced
significantly such that high-throughput testing equipment with high precision
and sensitivity have been developed for many types of products. These
testing facilities not only determine compliance with product standards but
also detect imitation and fake products that violate intellectual property
rights. Also, the entry of a good number of contraband and smuggled
products as well as many drugs and explosives can now be detected with
accuracy.
To summarize, the following are the technological inputs to our NQI:
• High speed, high-capacity computing

◦ Trade and business information infrastructure at the internal
and external
◦ Artificial Intelligence
◦ Big Data
◦ Data science
◦ Automation
• High-Throughput, large scale, systematic automated chemometric
methods
◦ Detection
◦ Identification
◦ Quantification
◦ Monitoring
• Analytical Methods for biologicals, gene products, substrates, and
cell activities
◦ Assessment for the introduction of exotic species, especially
invasive ones
◦ Assessment for the introduction of GMOs and their products
◦ Biosecurity - detect entry of biological warfare materials
◦ Biosafety - detect entry of harmful, unsafe and infected food
products
• Emerging technologies for product inspection during transport
(Rouhi 1995)
◦ Computed tomography: using x-ray to reconstruct a cross-
sectional image of an object
◦ X-ray scanners
◦ Nuclear Quadrupole Resonance: detection of quadrupole
moments of elements used in explosives
◦ Neutron Analysis: Materials bathed with neutrons will emit
gamma-rays whose energy and intensity are characteristic of
component elements like nitrogen.
◦ Vapor detection methods: characteristic vapor emitted by
material
• Recycling Technology - materials derived from goods and services
and obsolete products
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The foregoing discussion focused on major concerns of business and trade,

especially towards achieving competitiveness. Various technologies are
indicated in other sections of this Foresight to support public and private
sector efforts to compete in the global market. Niches must be developed for
Philippine products to thrive in an intensely aggressive market.
However, productivity must be balanced by both economic and

environmental sustainability. Even at the earliest stages of product
development, the environmentally-sound recycling of by-products, waste
materials, and obsolete products must already be designed into the
manufacturing process and product lifecycle.
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Information and Communications Technology
SECTION 4.4
INFORMATION AND
COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY
Information and Communications Technology (ICT), as defined by the

Technical Education and Skills Development Authority (TESDA) (2020) refers to
“technologies associated with the transmission and exchange of data in the
form of sound, text, visual images, signals or any other form or any combination
of those forms through the use of digital technology. It encompasses such
services as telecommunications, posts, multimedia, electronic, communications,
broadcasting, and information Technology (IT).” TESDA further states that
in terms of global trends, “IT resulted in revolutionizing the way people
communicate and for governments and firms to interact and conduct business.
The ICT revolution, specifically the Internet, alters the way people around the
world communicate, live, learn, play, and work.”
In 2016, RA 10844 created the Department of Information and

Communications Technology (DICT) as an Executive Branch at the Cabinet
level, for planning and promotion of the ICT agenda of the Philippines.
However, a lot of human and physical resources will be needed over the next
30 years to fully realize ICT’s potential to government at all levels—provincial,
city, and municipal—and to private firms. As indicated in Table 4.4_1 below,
76% of households do not have computers, 82% are without Internet
connections, 92% are without a fixed telephone line, and 76% are without
even a communal cellphone (DICT 2019).
The Internet, which started as Arpanet, was created by the United States
Defense Department in 1969 (Lukasik 2011). Wireless transmission would not
be possible without the profound development of electromagnetic theory by
nineteenth century physicist James Maxwell. Communications media such as
radio broadcasts, television broadcasts, radio and television receivers, smart
phones, and communication to and from devices connected to the Internet
of Things (IoT), etc. are prime examples where wireless communications are
utilized.
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Table 4.4_1. Result of Survey to Filipino Households on Access to Electricity, Radio,

Television, Telephone/Cellphone, and Internet as of 2019
Electricity Type of TV Service
With electricity 95% Analog TV 40.9%
Without electricity 5% DTH Satellite Service 16.8%
Radio Analog TV 13.9%
DTH Satellite Service 47% DTH Satellite Service 23%
Without radio 53% Smart TV 4.5%
Television Computer
With TV 79% With computer 24%
Without TV 21% Without computer 76%
Type of Computer (with access to computer) Internet
Laptop 50.6% With Internet 18%
Tablet 30.2% Without Internet 82%
Desktop 19%
Telephone/Cellphone Type of Internet Connection (with Internet access)
With Fixed Telephone line 8% Wired Broadband Network 53%
Without Fixed Telephone line 92% Mobile Broadband Network 21.1%
With Communal Cellphone 24% Wireless Broadband Network 21.8%
Without Communal Cellphone 76% Satellite Broadband Network 2.9%
Source: DICT (2020)
Another enabler of the Internet is the creation of a mathematical theory

of communications by Claude E. Shannon (Shannon 1948; Shannon and
Weaver 1949). This theory is the foundation of modern communications and,
together with electromagnetic theory, is the technical foundation of wireless
telecommunications including the Internet and ICT.
A full realization of the benefits of ICT will necessitate the development of

Digital Transformation (DX) (Torres 2020). DX is the creative conversion of
government offices, business enterprises, and other organizations, through
utilization of ICT, to enable them to provide new services not possible without
ICT, and to make them more efficient than before the conversion. It is a
mindset change to utilize technology to imagine information flow as judicious
retrieval from appropriate databases. DX is a major thrust in the world. In
March 2020, the Digital Transformation Institute was created as a consortium
of major research universities in the United States with the Microsoft
Corporation (C3 AI 2020a). The consortium provides an integrated data base
of many scattered data bases on COVID-19, made available free to the world
(C3.ai DTI 2020).
A government agency, business enterprise or other organization that has

been converted using DX will be called a Digitally Transformed Entity (DTE).
Inspired by natural ecosystems, a group of DTEs interacting with each other,
mutually benefiting each other, or promoting the greater good of the group,
is called a Digital Ecosystem (DECS) (Torres 2020). The DECS is capable
of self-organization and sustainability, inspired by natural ecosystems. A
natural ecosystem is“a community of living organisms in conjunction with
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the nonliving components of their environment interacting as a system.”An

ecosystem is characterized by its“network of interactions among organisms,
and between organisms and their environment”(Torres 2020). A DTE or a
DECS may have a Digital Twin (DT) (Torres 2020). A DT is a mathematical
approximation of a DTE or a DECS in terms of computer algorithms and
software systems. The parameters of the DT are calibrated using real data
from the past up to the present, of a DTE or a DECS.
Key Trends, Needs, and Gaps in Science,

Technology, and Innovation
The Philippine Internet was established in 1994 (PHNET 2020), funded by the
Department of Science and Technology (DOST). The Philippine Research,
Education, and Government Information Network (PREGINET) was set up
exclusively to connect selected institutions (PREGINET 1998). However, due to
exponentially growing demand over the last 25 years, the Philippine Internet
infrastructure is woefully inadequate for the country’s current needs.
In the current era, made more prominent by the COVID-19 pandemic, some
employees work from home (WFH) while others work from office (WFO). How
can WFH/WFO workers in the same enterprise or in different enterprises work
together? Although there is ICT in the Philippines, demand far exceeds the
capability of the infrastructure. Telephone and data telcos do not provide
enough broadband and speed which are needed to be able to convey and
access high quality information both here and abroad.
The foregoing background on ICT, including global trends as well as

Philippine conditions, suggests that ICT is a linchpin in this Foresight for
achieving proficiency in STI.
The Technology Forces

Briggs and Buchholz (2019) describe nine macro technology forces that are
changing our world. The first three of these are developments which emerged
some years ago and are now enabling technologies that support innovation
today and in the future. These are:
Digital experience. These technologies will evolve from the

business-customer interface technologies (social, mobile, web) to
the digital experience permeating not only the customer-business
interface but also all digital transactions within the entire business.
As a result, business strategy will rely increasingly on human-
centered design and user engagement.
Analytics. Use of data will evolve from descriptive, to predictive,

to prescriptive. At present, data analytics is used mostly to get
patterns from historical data. However, companies will want to make
predictions and also recommendations on how to act based on
those predictions.
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Cloud. In the last decade, no single technology trend has so

dominated the arena of enterprise IT as the cloud. In its most
common and simplest form, cloud is a means for lifting and shifting
workloads, or simply as the extension of the data center. In the
future, however, the potential value of the cloud for achieving long-
term growth and developing innovation will emerge. Customers may
turn to the cloud for access to artificial intelligence (AI), blockchain,
digital reality, quantum computing, etc.
The disruptive macro technologies that were identified by Briggs and

Buchholz (2019) are the following:
Digital reality. Comprising augmented reality, virtual reality,

mixed reality, the Internet of Things (IoT), and immersive/spatial
technologies, this macro technology is evolving beyond keyboards
and touch screens to offer new ways by which humans interact with
data, technology, and each other.
Blockchain. This technology was originally invented in support of

cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin). It is essentially a database duplicated,
shared and updated by a network of computers. Its disruptive
potential lies in the fact that it could replace certain business
models. For example, it could eliminate businesses that earn from
charging small fees for a transaction, such as credit cards, bank
services (Rosic 2020).
Cognitive technologies. Examples of these technologies are

machine learning, neural networks, robotic process automation,
bots, natural language processing, and AI used not only to visualize
information, but also to augment and automate human response to
information.
The following last three macro technologies address the core legacy of
enterprises. Their evolution in the coming years is said to provide the
foundation on which the other macro technologies will be built:
Business of technology. In this world of rapid innovation,

companies are becoming more and more like similar to technology
companies. The challenge is to integrate technology into business
strategy and to re-engineer IT organizations.
Core modernization. Enterprises have been re-engineering their

core systems to keep up with advancement brought by technology.
In the future, these reconfigured platforms are expected to bring
innovation and growth.
Cyber risk. So far, cyber risk is the concern of IT and technical

departments. It is expected that its importance to all stakeholders in
the entire enterprise will grow. Thus, cybersecurity will be integrated
in all aspects of the transformation of an enterprise.
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Panetta (2017) noted three technological mega-trends: AI everywhere,

transparently immersive experiences, and digital platforms. The descriptions
of these techno-trends appear similar to the emerging macro technologies
listed by Briggs and Buchholz (2019). Emerging technologies within these
trends were identified by Fitzgerald (2020), Forrester (2020), and Maddox
(2020) as follows:
1. Artificial intelligence
2. 5G
3. Internet of Things
4. Serverless computing
5. Biometrics
6. Augmented reality/virtual reality
7. Blockchain
8. Robotics
9. Natural language processing
10. Quantum computing
Singh (2020) mentions many of these and adds some more specific
technologies: autonomous driving, 3D print and cybersecurity.
Quantum Computing deserves a special mention here. Conceived

theoretically in the 1980’s and experimentally tested in the 1990’s, this
technology is being pursued by Google (in collaboration with NASA) and
IBM. Based on patent filings, other companies in the quantum computing
space are D-Wave Systems, Nokia/Alcatel, Honeywell, Microsoft, Northrup
Grumman, Boeing, HP, NTT, Hitachi, Toshiba, and NEC (Scanlon et al. 2020).
Current technology is still not fault-tolerant and has yet to convincingly

demonstrate what is referred to as“quantum supremacy” or, loosely, the
ability to solve problems that classical computers cannot. Yet investment in
the technology is booming with no less than the US government announcing
in 2020 a USD 1 billion investment in AI and quantum computing (Vincent
2020). Capital for mainstream companies has increased four times in 2017-
2018 (Gibney 2019). Startup funding reportedly grew from USD 4 million in
2015 to USD 300 million in 2020 (Carson 2020). These trends in investment
point to at least growing confidence that quantum computing can be brought
from academia to the market in the next two or three decades. The patent
data also reflects the growth in investment.
Scanlon et al. (2020) report a 450% increase in the number of patent families,
mostly in qubit technology and hardware. Most of these patents are from the
US. Japan runs second although China surpassed its patent filings in 2014.
Chinese interest in quantum computing lies in the area of cryptology.
Fundamentally, this surge in investments and innovation is inspired by

the computing speed and ability to solve complex problems that classical
computers cannot match. These advantages are likely to disrupt existing
business and industry, and even the mega-trends and techno-forces
identified. The potential for creating new industries is also high. For the
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moment, there appears to be a consensus on the possible impacts on

other technologies: AI, machine learning, computational chemistry, drug
design and discovery, cybersecurity and cryptography, financial modeling,
optimization, and climate science (Das 2020; Dilmigani 2020; Gossett 2020;
Honeywell 2020; Jackson 2017; Scanlon et al. 2020).
The macro forces are significant by themselves, but they are also very
important in that they are likely to transform other technologies. As these
macro forces evolve, they will probably bring about advances in other, more
main-stream technologies. A digital future is predicted which social, mobile,
cloud, big data and demand for access anytime anywhere to information
will drive transformation of business models, mobile device adoption,
business-customer relationships, market context and competitive landscape
and cybersecurity issues (EY 2015). Atkinson (2016) adds that people will
be increasingly connected and suffer loss of privacy and that new business
models will emerge as a result of digital technologies and interconnection.
Telecommunications
Technologies in the telecommunications/ICT sector have rapidly developed
in the past two decades. The wireless revolution, referred to in an early part
of this section, which ushered in the internet, digital telephones, and digital
media, has greatly accelerated the development of technologies to connect
remote areas.
The challenge of creating an information infrastructure based on

wireless and digital technology has intensified activity towards building
a telecommunications/ICT backbone that will provide basic connectivity
especially for the rural and remote areas (ITU 2019). The drive for inclusive
development, referred to as the“last mile connectivity,”has pushed both the
private and public sector to overcome the challenges of rugged terrain and
limited power supply to connect these usually isolated areas (ITU 2019).
Technologies for Telecommunications

Infrastructure
The International Telecommunications Union (ITU) Study Groups (2019) took
into account the existing and current trends in backbone infrastructure to
include the following:
• Wireline communication infrastructure - copper or glass fiber-based

terminating in a fixed location
• Fiber-optic cables - made of transparent glass or plastic fibers to
transmit data using pulses of light and can support high-speed
transmission compared to copper-based wirelines
• Wireless technology - uses telecommunications towers to support
cellular communication antennas
• Submarine cables connecting continents, with around 378-420
submarine cables currently installed all over the world
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Trends in Telecommunications/
Technology Infrastructure
The increasing demand for high-speed internet connectivity has triggered
the need for more telecommunication towers, especially those powered by
renewable energy like solar and wind. The ITU Study Group (2019) estimates
that there are 4 million towers installed globally and is expected to increase
as the 5G networks are rolled out.
Submarine cables are still considered the more reliable backbone for global
connectivity while the towers are more practical for land communications.
Satellite telecommunications are still the best choice to connect

isolated places, oceans, deserts, and areas often hit by natural disasters.
Telecommunications for emergency situations still rely on satellite
technology.
Last-Mile Connectivity
The available solutions to serve users in rural and remote areas are possible
in the presence of possible backbones as follows (ITU 2019):
• Wired systems - uses copper wires and optical fiber offers high
information capacity but requires amplification over long distances.
• Traditional wired local area networks - uses copper coaxial cables,
modified to support higher bandwidths and improved modulation;
amenable to enhancement to support high-speed transmission.
• Community antenna television systems (cable television systems)
- expanded to provide communication in two directions but with
limited user capacity.
• Optical fiber - high-capacity, high performance, low-error rates in
transmission but high costs confines installation in urban areas; not
prone to theft, unlike copper wirelines.
• Wireless systems - affected by terrain, buildings, weather conditions,
but more reliable
• Light waves and free space optics - uses high frequency shorter
waves, allows high data transfer rates but limited by obstructions
• Radio frequency or wireless radio systems - low information capacity
used for facsimile and radio teletype
• Satellite communications - spread over large geographical areas,
high information capacity and can accommodate many sharing
users but still beset by high costs.
• E-line - uses single central conductor transporting energy in a plain
wire and can support high information capacity range frequencies.
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The trends in last-mile connectivity are as follows:
• Wi-Fi Technology - Wi-Fi hotspots supporting local area networks can

be located where the community usually converges such as markets,
shopping centers, school campuses and homes. Effective only if the
backbone landing is near.
• High altitude platform systems and unmanned aerial vehicles
(UAVs) - serve as mobile base stations to provide connectivity,
solar powered and used for surveillance and monitoring during
humanitarian emergencies; including use of balloons.
• Mobile virtual network operator model - small operators use the
infrastructure and networks of larger operators.
• Business regulatory models and policies - develop policies for
effective last-mile connectivity for rural and remote areas.
• Community network model - very small or medium scale networks
within and managed by communities.
• Hybrid model - combination of large operators who provide capacity
to connect to Internet and small operators to provide last-mile
connectivity.
Enabling Environment
These technologies can be made to work only if both the government and
the private sector collaborate to provide connectivity in an inclusive manner.
Regulatory requirements, tax and customs duties, and the ease of doing
business are vital to success in providing connectivity to all. Market forces
usually do not address last-mile connectivity such that the government
should partner with the private sector to ensure the deployment of a
broadband network infrastructure for rural and remote communities. There
are technologies available to effect inclusive connectivity. Both the public
and private sector should ensure the availability of the human resources
to manage and maintain a functional information infrastructure for an
archipelagic and maritime country like the Philippines.
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Science Education and Talent Retention
SECTION 4.5
SCIENCE EDUCATION AND TALENT
RETENTION
Developing and Retaining Talent in Science, Technology, Engineering and

Mathematics (STEM): Towards a Relevant, Robust and Resilient Knowledge
Infrastructure
Edwards (2017) defines knowledge infrastructure as the “robust network of
people, artifacts, and institutions that generate, share, and maintain specific
knowledge about the human and natural worlds” and consists of schools,
colleges, universities, and research institutions, journals and books, the
information infrastructure, institutions that collect, process, analyze and
distribute data, museums, media, and others that are engaged in the generation,
sharing and maintenance of knowledge. As Rockstrom et al. (2009) noted, there
exists “much more data and much better understanding not only of the natural
world but also of human economies, population, wastes and nearly everything
else.”
Human resources in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics

(STEM) perform a vital role in enhancing, maintaining, and monitoring the
knowledge infrastructure — especially in STEM. As Romer and Griliches (1993)
put it:
“ Ultimately, all increases in standards of living can be traced to discoveries of

more valuable arrangements for things in the earth’s crust and atmosphere…
No amount of savings and investment, no policy of macroeconomic fine-tuning,
no set of tax and spending incentives can generate sustained economic growth
unless it is accompanied by the countless large and small discoveries that are
required to create more value from a fixed set of natural resources.“
Due to the rapid developments of knowledge in STEM, such as automation

and AI, the STEM talent pool has to learn to retool, to handle more complex
tasks, and to work with and maintain machines so that tasks can be
performed reliably and accurately (Tan and Tang 2016; Acemoglu and
Restrepo 2017).
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Return on Investment on Human

Resources
The development and retention of talent in STEM in the Philippines is of vital
importance in the context of the knowledge infrastructure that will enhance
and sustain our development agenda. We shall devote our discussion to the
educational system that should provide opportunities for STEM talent to
develop and flourish.
In preparing for the year 2050, the weaknesses of our STEM talent
development and retention schemes in the Philippines need to be identified.
Several studies clearly indicate the need to improve and balance the regional
distribution of our STEM talent development programs starting from K-12 up
to those that lead to master’s and doctoral degrees and vocational-technical
education (Patalinghug 2003a, 2003b; di Gropello et al. 2010; Magno 2011; RTI
International 2014; Manasan and Parel 2014; Manasan 2015; Bevins and Price
2015; DOST-SEI 2015; Raymundo et al. 2017; Albert et al. 2017; Quismorio et
al. 2019).
There are two most critical“imbalances”that need to be addressed, urgently,

when it comes to human resources in STEM: (1) the need for higher numbers
(critical mass) of well-trained scientists and engineers than managers and
administrators, and (2) equitable distribution of science and technology (S&T)
human resources, and consequently, of research and development (R&D)
resources, in the regions.
Determining the Critical Mass of

Science, Technology, Engineering, and
Mathematics Human Resources
One of the urgent tasks is to review the estimates that have been used
as targets for building the critical mass of STEM Human Resources in the
country. The basis of UNESCO data with regard to the critical mass of
R&D personnel per million population that has been used as a target must
be reviewed because the figure appears to be too low. Furthermore, the
indicator is confined to the R&D sector, whereas STEM activities also include
the provision for services like STEM education, testing laboratories, weather
forecasting, seismological monitoring, and communication to enhance public
understanding of science. We need a more realistic estimate of our targets to
make sure that our current skills shortage will be corrected.
It is also evident that, globally, there is an increasing demand for STEM

workers, from skilled technicians to highly trained faculty and researchers.
Thus, it may be an understatement to say that we have to make sure that
our initiatives to build the corps of STEM talent in the Philippines must be
competitive.
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Science, Technology, Engineering, and

Mathematics Talent Development in the
Philippine Knowledge Infrastructure:
Schools, Colleges, and Universities
Basic Education in K-12. STEM talent development in the Philippines
formally starts in Grade 3. The study of the STEM curriculum in K-12 by
AusAid-University of Melbourne and SEAMEO-INNOTECH (2011) indicated
major weakness both in the content and facilities for STEM instruction. These
findings were confirmed by Manasan and Parel (2014) and Albert et al. (2017).
Vea (2020) noted that for specialized STEM education, the Department of
Education established 609 Special Science Elementary Schools (SSES).
For STEM education in Grades 7-12, there are five categories of public high
schools that are geared towards specialized STEM curriculum. They are as
follows (Vea 2020):
• 686 Science, Technology, and Engineering (STE)-Implementing

Schools that have one or two special science sections per grade level
• 58 legislated science high schools
• 15 regional science high schools
• 30 public city science high schools
• 16 regional campuses of the Philippine Science High School System
In addition to these 128 publicly funded science high schools, there are 256
privately-owned science high schools.
A review conducted by Bevins and Price (2015) indicated the need to improve
the quality of materials, the facilities, and the teaching of the science high
schools. To ensure that there is a healthy number of feeders into the science
high schools, the primary STEM curriculum should be strengthened to build
the foundational scientific, mathematical, and thinking skills for an intensive
science high school curriculum. For the requirements of the 21st century,
coding and computer programming skills are being introduced in primary
grades, and these curriculum upgrades should be considered in the Philippine
basic education sector.
For the science high schools, including the Philippine Science High School,
a review of the curriculum is in order as well as the recruitment of highly
qualified instructors in STEM. Faculty development programs must be
sustained with opportunities for retooling. For the senior high schools,
research requirements must be reviewed, and the research supervisors must
be carefully chosen so as not to waste time and materials.
Serious attention should be accorded to the quality of instruction in both the

private and public science high schools because they are the feeders to the
STEM courses in higher education. The poor qualifications of STEM teachers
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have been identified as a problem that must be addressed with urgency.

To compensate for the loss of good STEM teachers who have gone abroad
we need to revise our qualification standards and adopt a more supportive
working environment.
STEM in Philippine Higher Education Institutions. Vea (2020) analyzed the

landscape of STEM education in Philippine Higher Education Institutions
(HEIs) by looking at data for the school year 2016-2017. The study indicated
that the 1943 HEIs offer 3912 undergraduate STEM programs, 611 STEM
programs leading to a master’s degree, and 94 STEM programs leading to a
doctoral degree, indicating a significant lack of vertical articulation resulting
in lesser fields of study available for those interested to pursue a master’s
or doctoral degree. Engineering and technology programs attract high
enrollments, but the science and mathematics programs continue to be
undersubscribed. The same picture is true for the number of graduates, with
information technology producing 36 percent of the 110,011 STEM graduates
for the school year 2016–2017.
The picture is bleak, to say the least, in the number of enrollment and
graduation for the master’s and doctoral degrees with only 1313 and 122,
earning the master’s and doctoral degrees for the said school year. Some
regions did not even have a single doctoral graduate for the school year. Also,
during that school year, there were no graduates for the doctoral degree
in critical areas of specialization like Botany, Marine Biology, Microbiology,
Meteorology, and Geology, among others.
In addition to concerns on building this critical mass, issues on the quality

of instruction—especially related to laboratories for teaching and research
in STEM at the undergraduate and graduate levels—need to be addressed
(Manasan and Parel 2014; Raymundo et al. 2017; Albert et al. 2017; Quismorio
et al. 2019; Tutor et al. 2019). Multidisciplinary research programs must be
encouraged.
State of Doctor of Philosophy Programs in STEM. Saloma (2016, 2020)

analyzed the capability of the Philippines to produce its next generation of
scientists and researchers towards the year 2050 focusing on the production
of PhD graduates in STEM rather than on tracking the number of full-time
equivalent researchers in the country since the metric is fraught with
sampling concerns (Saloma 2020).
In AY 2019–2020, the Commission on Higher Education (CHED) accredited

a total of 1,975 HEIs. These include 112 publicly funded state universities
and colleges, and the rest are private HEIs which accounted for 87.5% of
the institutions (CHED 2020). Less than 1% of HEIs have tenable STEM PhD
programs due to the lack of qualified PhD faculty members to teach graduate
courses and supervise the dissertation research of PhD students, coupled
with the complexity and high cost of starting and operating a STEM research
laboratory. The scarcity of PhD supervisors is impeding the graduation of
more STEM PhD students. From AY 2003-2004 to AY 2019-2020, the number
of PhD faculty members in all academic disciplines increased at a paltry rate
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of 0.34% per annum. Only accredited HEIs could grant doctoral degrees. On
average HEIs produce yearly only about a hundred STEM PhD graduates,
while producing 1,532 new lawyers (period: 2000–2019), 1,924 new certified
public accountants (2000–2019), and 2,875 new medical doctors (2000-2016)
(Saloma 2016, 2020).
Programs are in Place to Improve STEM PhD Production in HEIs. An

example of a purposive doctoral degree program is the University of the
Philippines Diliman (UPD) College of Engineering’s (CoE) Engineering
Research & Development for Technology (ERDT) Program. The ERDT has
improved COE’s PhD production to 12.8 ± 3.68 per year from AY 2010-2011 to
AY 2018-2019, which is higher than the 30-year College of Science (CS) average
(12.53 ± 3.8). It is noted that as of July 2018, the CoE had 78 faculty members
with PhDs while CS had 168.
Another program is the Advanced Science and Technology Human Resource

Development Program (ASTHRDP). Both ASTHRDP and ERDT, which
are funded by the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) are
instrumental in growing the PhD production at a yearly rate of +41.38%. A
total of 1,927 PhD scholarships was planned for 2020 as compared to 302 in
2008 (Biyo 2019). The number will swell to 129,500+ in 2050, if the growth rate
is maintained.
However, the real success of a STEM PhD production initiative is not

measured by the number of scholarships awarded, but in the number of PhD
scholars who graduated. The anemic increase rate in the number of STEM
PhD faculty members as research advisers would result in fiercer competition
for dissertation research supervisors among future scholars. The case with
UPD and CS reveals that the hiring of more PhD faculty members would not
automatically lead to a rise in STEM PhD graduates.
So far (2008–2018), the PhD graduation rate of the ASTHRDP and the ERDT is
53.97% (Saloma 2020), which is likely to worsen going forward if the scarcity
of PhD supervisors continues. Thousands of future PhD scholars will be at
risk of failing and face the dire prospect of reimbursing the government for
the cost of their scholarship. There are no redundancies in the PhD degree
programs offered by the ASTHRDP and ERDT partner HEIs and withdrawing
scholarship support to an underperforming program will only eliminate the
possibility for long-term development of critical expertise. For example, the
Philippines has yet to produce a PhD Geology graduate in the 21st century.
Unfortunately, the PhD Geology program in CS is being scrapped.
Novel strategies are needed to enlarge the pool of PhD supervisors. HEIs may
consider the successful mentoring of a PhD student a pre-requisite in the
grant of tenure and cross-rank promotion, especially to full professorship.
Professor emeriti and seasoned professors with a proven track record, may
be tapped to serve as full-time PhD supervisors beyond the prescribed
retirement age.
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Successful mentoring of STEM PhD students should be given more weight

in coveted lifetime recognition programs such as professor emeritus
appointment and NAST membership. Access to STEM PhD degree programs
should be made free to qualified BS graduates and advanced STEM
manpower programs should be managed with more attention to detail and
evaluated regularly for possible structural weaknesses.
Technical and Vocational Education and Training. The role of skilled trades
and crafts workers in the discovery and utilization of technology is one of
the critical factors in a functional national innovation system. The National
System of Technical Vocational Education and Training (NSTVET) under the
Technical Education and Skills Development Authority (TESDA) is mandated
to ensure access to opportunities for training and continuous upgrading of
skills or up-skilling of trades and crafts workers.
NSTVET is designed to respond to three types of clients: (a) the unemployed;

(b) the currently employed who want to increase their income; and (c) the
employed who want to re-tool (Orbeta and Esguerra 2016).
NSTVET is conducted through programs that are school-based and center-

based, enterprise-based, and community-based. Schools and centers,
including TESDA, directly deliver training. The Dual Training System and the
Apprenticeship Program are conducted within a company. The Community-
based programs are implemented by the Local Government Units or non-
government organizations.
As of July 2015, there were 4,609 accredited schools and centers offering
20,329 programs. Tourism, ICT, and health and social and community
development are the most popular training programs, followed by
construction, automotive and land transportation, and metals and
engineering. Company-based programs involve 421 firms offering 1,208
programs with health, social, and other community development services,
and tourism as top choices (Orbeta and Esguerra 2016).
The trends in enrollment and graduation vary according to the delivery mode.
It is noted that the institution-based mode has the highest enrollment and
graduation, while the enterprise mode is lowest in both. It is anticipated that
the demand for training will increase over the years as the demand for skilled
workers is rising worldwide (Orbeta and Esguerra 2016).
In a study involving ASEAN countries, including the Tan and Tang identified
(2016) common skills challenges confronting these countries and proposed
that the private sector be given a bigger role to meet the challenges with the
following corrective measures:
• Provide a clear roadmap to meet skills challenges

• Revamp curriculum to emphasize STEM, Technical and Vocational
Education and Training (TVET), and soft skills training
• Deepen school-industry links to improve the employability of
graduates
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• Expand and strengthen continuous and lifelong learning

• Coordinate policy on cross-border labor flows
Clearly, the role of skilled workers and their training is a vital part of the
knowledge infrastructure that has to be upgraded continuously to fit the
changes brought about by the emerging technologies and the increasing
demand for their services as the economy adapts to new trends in business
and technology.
Balancing the Deployment of Science,

Technology, Engineering, and
Mathematics Workers and Funds in the
Regions
The dominance of the National Capital Region is evident in the deployment
of researchers and funding in the administrative regions, as shown in Figure
4.5_1. R&D funding is, in turn, dependent on the presence of researchers in
the regions. These disparities need to be addressed in the interest of inclusive
development.
Increasing investments to develop and retain STEM talent in the regions

should be accompanied by strengthening the regional innovation hubs, such
as the Niche Centers in the Regions for Research and Development programs
and the R&D infrastructure of HEIs in the regions (Ofreneo 2014).
Number of R&D Personnel
and Researchers
Figure 4.5_1. Number of R&D Personnel and Researchers in the Regions 2011 and 2013
Source: DOST (2015)
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Attracting and Retaining Foreign/Filipino

Science and Technology Professionals/
Practitioners
If we adopt only for discussion purposes the assumed UNESCO benchmark
of 380 R&D personnel per million population, the DOST-Science Education
Institute estimated in 2017 that the Philippines would need an additional
16,652 R&D personnel to meet the benchmark by 2022. This will require
adding 3663 STEM graduates to the pool of R&D workforce every year.
In view of the intense global demand for talent in STI, the Philippines must
adopt more vigorous measures to attract and retain Foreign/Filipino Science
and Technology Professionals/Practitioners (FSTPs). Current efforts like the
Balik-Scientist Program need to be supplemented by new initiatives based on
the following principles:
• Defined Relevant Roles and Responsibilities: Allow active

participation in national development by involvement in science-
based policy formulation and decision-making.
• Provide Resources: Strengthen the R&D infrastructure of HEIs and
design a more efficient and responsive supply chain for research
materials and equipment by crafting a separate procurement
guideline for academic and research institutions.
• Recognition: Confer honor and respect highly meritorious
accomplishments of the STEM workforce by upholding the integrity
of the merit system and inform the younger generation of these
recognitions, so they can be inspired to pursue careers in STEM.
• Compensation Package: Provide compensation packages that
can ensure a comfortable life for FSTPs and their families; facilitate
relocation for those coming from abroad or from other regions in the
Philippines.
• Opportunities to Retool and Update: Provide opportunities
for regular retooling and updating in various fields of expertise
by harnessing to the fullest the relevant provisions of RA 11448
(Transnational Higher Education Act) due to rapid developments
in S&T. Conduct a study on how the emergent centers of scientific
knowledge production in the Asia-Pacific have designed programs
and policies to attract and retain scientific talent. As demand for
scientific talent will be more competitive globally, it is important that
a country which is not a“center”of scientific activity understands
what it would take to compete for such talent and to keep them
productive and happy.
Studies on professional development and migrant researchers point to a
range of personal, professional, social, and cultural factors that influence
global S&T researchers’professional decisions on where to work and who to
work with. (Ortiga et al. 2018, 2019). As the global market for scientific talent
will be even more competitive in the coming decades, the Philippines should
have a better understanding of the factors that make it a viable option for
these talents, and the factors that might push these talents away.
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Technologies to Enhance the Teaching-

Learning Process
Current and emerging technologies are tools to empower teachers to become
better users of instructional technologies such as case-based learning,
collaborative learning, self-directed learning as well as sharing of views about
concepts, and using diagnostics to monitor the effectiveness of the teaching-
learning process (Dede 2014). Fullan and Scott (2014) characterized the“new
pedagogy”to be one where there is easy and efficient access to information,
wide use of digital technology and focused on real-life problem-solving.
There is renewed interest in revitalizing studies in Learning Engineering.

The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) defines learning
engineering thus:
“Learning Engineering is a process and practice that applies the learning sciences
using human-centered engineering design methodologies and data-informed
decision making to support learners and their development.” (IEEE, n.d.)
Learning engineers integrate engineering and systems thinking to provide

support for the development of new technologies for learning to maximize its
value. Learning engineers use their knowledge in pedagogy and technology
to put together and evaluate a whole teaching-learning environment.
The current COVID-19 pandemic highlights the severe inequalities among

regions in the country as regards the infrastructure for digital education.
Our IT infrastructure is poorly distributed and poses severe limitations to
access good quality STEM education now and in the future. Viable long-term
solutions to these inequalities should consider technologies and sound
policies.
According to Dede (2014), new technology infrastructures are needed to

facilitate access to instructional materials globally and enhance the continuity
of the learning. Thus, acquiring digital skills will be the default for all Grade
12 and college graduates (Dede 2014). Large scale disruptive events like the
COVID-19 pandemic have made it even more necessary for these skills to be
learned.
Dede (2014) has suggested that the following technology infrastructures be

established:
• Digital teaching platform: A teacher-led classroom infrastructure as

the primary instructional environment to implement the curriculum,
personalize instruction, and promote knowledge integration
and collaborative learning. An example would be the Learning
Management System.
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• Immersive Authentic Simulations: This refers to the virtual

environment to enable the student to obtain a realistic experience
even if one is not physically located in a place. This includes
multiuser virtual environments and augmented reality, where
students interact via mobile wireless devices with simulations and
other virtual information and visualization. An example is the flight
simulator used to train pilots.
Brown et al. (2015) describe the features of a next generation digital learning
environment as“interoperability, personalization, analytics, advising and
learning assessment, collaboration, accessibility, and universal design.”
These features can be put together in various ways to suit preferred individual
and institutional learning environments.
The teacher and the student must have access to gadgets such as personal
computers or laptops or tablets or smartphones as well as access to
broadband connectivity. Otherwise, radio and TV networks may be used as
tools for instruction. Until access to these gadgets and bandwidth is universal,
a blended approach may have to be adopted in resource-poor communities.
Nevertheless, facilities to produce materials for print or broadcast must be
available such as high-capacity printers, binders, and quality production
facilities for radio and TV. Another concern will be the distribution of both
printed and broadcasted materials especially in island communities. Hard to
reach places may access satellite-based communications, but these tend to
be expensive.
The challenge in the deployment of digital technologies is access to

broadband connectivity. This problem is quite common in developing
countries where access to power and connectivity is limited. Thus, the
International Telecommunications Union conducted a study on“Broadband
development and connectivity solutions for rural and remote areas”(ITU
2019) and provides the following technological measures, also mentioned in
Section 4.4, that are currently used for last mile connectivity:
• wired systems including optical fiber: high information capacity

• traditional wired local area networks: copper coaxial cables
modified to support higher transmission bandwidth and improved
modulation
• cable TV systems: bi-directional communication, limited user
capacity
• optical fiber: high capacity, high performance, low error rates
• WiFi technology: hot spots and local area networks can be installed
at points of community activities. Backbone landing should not be
far from the locality.
• high-altitude platform systems and unmanned aerial vehicles
(UAVs) such as drones, can serve as mobile base stations to provide
connectivity.
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Given the above challenges in the production, distribution, and use of digital
instructional materials, software-defined networking will be a vital tool to
enable a programmatically efficient network to operate. Such networks have
to be flexible and agile and able to manage traffic from a centralized console.
Conclusion
Recent reports on the performance of fifth grade students that are falling
behind their peers in some ASEAN countries as indicated by data from the
Southeast Asia Primary Learning Metrics (UNICEF and SEAMEO 2020) as well
as the low ranking of the fourth-grade students in math and science in the
Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (Mullis et al. 2020)
makes it imperative to conduct an overhaul of our STEM programs in K-12
because of concerns on the quality of the feeders to undergraduate and
graduate programs in STEM.
Earlier, the poor quality of instruction in HEIs was mentioned. Recent

newspaper reports also indicate the need for improvement of TESDA training
programs.
Our dismal standing in these international tests has been known for at least
two decades now. A serious effort to improve our ranking must now receive
priority support. Tools and materials are now available to enable our STEM
educational system to reform and upgrade.
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SECTION 4.6
FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION
Agricultural Production, Post-Production, and their Natural Resource Base
By 2050, the agriculture sector will continue to play a critical role in achieving
the Philippines’ national development targets considering its natural terrestrial,
marine and aquatic resources. However, the characteristics and scale of the
Philippines’ agricultural production and post-production systems will be
significantly different compared to the present, due to the country’s evolving
political and economic development path, socio-demographic composition,
human capital priorities, types of technological systems, decreasing agricultural
land, biophysical condition of the agricultural systems, and climate change.
While the agriculture sector remains a key player in the Philippine economy,
its full potential has not been fully maximized due to the combination of
economically volatile exports and productivity losses caused by weather
extremes, and poor utilization of modern technology, among a myriad of factors.
Philippine agriculture has continued to lag behind Southeast Asian neighbors

in terms of productivity growth, technological inputs, and the perennial lows
of its capital investments have greatly reduced its competitiveness in the
region.
The sluggish growth in agriculture through the years—from an annual average

of 4% in 1970s to about 3% in 2000s to 2010s—is largely due to the significant
decline in the average gross value added (GVA) growth rate of crops, from
6.8% in the 1970s to about 3% in the early 2000s and up to the present.
The share of agriculture in the national economy has been stagnant at 11%-
12%, in contrast to the services and manufacturing sectors.
The evolving context of agriculture, rural development, and the status of

farmers in the Philippines is also affected by the socio-economic and political
climate not just within the Southeast Asian region but also across the
globe. The prevalence of poverty is highest in the rural areas and the fishing
communities.
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Food Security and Nutrition
It is envisioned that a strengthened economic cooperation between the

Philippines and the world through more competitive market and trading
systems would usher in knowledge and human capital exchange, farm
production and post-production management, intervention knowledge base,
and more accessible and efficient flows of goods and services. However, much
of this would depend on how the Philippines would be effective in aligning its
current national priorities with the rest of the world, as the country needs to
revitalize its agriculture sector around these regional and global priorities to
realize its full impact to the Filipino farmers.
In the future, the continuing importance of the agriculture sector in a

maritime and archipelagic Philippines, will provide a strong impetus for
maximizing its potential for reducing poverty, achieving food and nutrition
security, protecting the environment and providing ecological services—both
in the rural and urban sectors.
According to 2015–2019 estimates, 36 million people in the region live below

the international poverty line. With the average nominal gross domestic
product (GDP) per capita of USD 4,755 as of 2019, the agriculture sector is
seen to be in a strategic position to further close the gap in the seemingly
increasing income inequality in Southeast Asia, averaging at a Gini coefficient
of 77.23.
While Asia had an estimated 81.7 million undernourished people in 2019—

many of whom are women and people living in marginal areas who are most
vulnerable to food insecurity—about 57.9 million malnourished individuals
are from the Southeast Asian region (UNICEF, WHO, and World Bank, 2019).
Clearly, agriculture must not just be positioned for increased food production,
but also in its ability to improve the nutritional status of the population. The
food system paradigm can make this aspiration a reality.
Food Security and Nutrition Challenges

The food system refers to the chain of human activities that cover food
production, post-production, marketing, consumption, and waste
management. Aggregately, these components constitute the single most
important driver of the mega problems facing the country today: resource
depletion, population growth, pollution, climate change, malnutrition,
inequality, and poverty. The existing food system in the Philippines has
been dysfunctional for many years. and it is bound to become worse if not
corrected.
Sustainable food systems, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization

of the United Nations (FAO), should have green growth, inclusive growth,
and eco-social progress, where the latter suggests a link between sociology
and the environment. Past approaches have focused narrowly on food
production, while the FAO’s higher order approach identifies the challenges
of creating more balanced and holistic policies and programs to achieve the
desired nutritional outcomes. For example, a policy that promotes nutrition-
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sensitive agriculture (more diverse) will have a significant impact on the food
system. This will deliver broad-based benefits to society and have a positive
or neutral impact on the natural environment. Resilience is another feature of
sustainable food systems, given the multiple risks.
The Philippines is off course in meeting the global targets for all indicators
analyzed with adequate data (Global Nutrition Report 2020). According to
the 2018 Expanded National Nutrition Survey (ENNS), nutrition problems
besetting the country include stunting, overweight across all age groups, and
anemia among women of reproductive age, among other indicators (DOST-
FNRI 2020).
Filipino children are increasingly suffering from poor diets, inadequate

nutrition and food systems that are failing them (UNICEF 2019).“The
undernutrition facts in the Philippines are disturbing—one in three
12-23-month-old children suffer from anemia while one in three children
are irreversibly stunted by the age of 2. One (1) in 10 adolescents are obese
from wrong eating habits,”said Oyun Dendevnorov, UNICEF Philippines
Representative.“The triple burden of undernutrition, hidden hunger and
overweight poses serious threats to child health.”Adolescent obesity among
Filipinos has almost tripled in the last 15 years (DOST-FNRI 2020) as processed
foods high in salt, fats and sugar are becoming more accessible and
affordable. Adolescents are eating unhealthily diets, which are not meeting
their nutritional needs.
Indeed, the Philippines is still suffering a malnutrition burden. As of 2015, the

national prevalence of overweight among children below five years of age is
3.9%, which has decreased slightly from 5% in 2013. The national prevalence
of under-five stunting is 33.4%, which is greater than the developing country
average of 25% (DOST-FNRI 2016).
Conversely, the Philippines’under-five wasting prevalence of 7.1% is less

than the developing country average of 8.9%. In the Philippines, 33% of
infants under six (6) months are exclusively breastfed. The Philippines’low
birth weight prevalence of 20.1% in 2015 has decreased slightly from 21.5% in
2000. The Philippines’adult population likewise faces a malnutrition burden:
15.7% of women of reproductive age have anemia, and 7.3% of adult women
have diabetes, compared to 7.1% of men. Meanwhile, 7.5% of women and
5.2% of men are obese (Global Nutrition Report 2020).
Poverty and Inequality, as Causes of

Malnutrition
Malnutrition is caused by interrelated factors including health as well as
physical, social, economic and other conditions. Poverty is the main root
of malnutrition and is the particular cause of inadequate food intake. Slow
economic growth in the 1990s and 2000s, coupled with stagnant inequality
(see Gini index, Section 3.2), led to a caesura in the eradication of poverty and
persistent malnutrition (Briones et al. 2017).
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The percentage of food-secure households—here, food security is defined as

being able to eat three full meals a day, or at least not going to bed hungry—
decreased from 51.3% in 2013 to 36.1% in 2015, while the percentage of food-
insecure households increased from 9.5% in 2013 to 29.2% in 2015 (Silva,
2018). In 2014, the Philippines’Global Hunger Index (GHI) score—based on
three indicators: undernourishment, child underweight, and child mortality—
was 13.1. The ideal score, indicating low hunger, should be below 5. Our
country thus ranked 29th in the world in terms of hunger, with its situation
categorized as a“serious problem”.
Over the past 15 years (1999–2014), the number of Filipino families who rated
themselves as hungry based on the Social Weather Station’s self-rated hunger
survey rose from 8.3% to 18.3% (Focus on the Global South-Philippines 2014).
Under the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of hungry Filipinos doubled due
to the COVID-19 lockdowns (SWS 2020a).
The most important underlying cause of hunger during the pandemic is the
inaccessibility to food due to lack of income, as millions of people lost their
jobs.
Food Supply, Markets, and Nutrition

Food supply, and how it is distributed and consumed by the populace, has a
consequent impact on nutritional status. Studies reveal that many Filipinos
suffer from lack of food or poor diets, despite rising food availability and
greater food supply. High-priced rice hurts Filipino consumers, especially
the poor, because it is a staple food item. Rice accounts for more than a third
(33% in 2012) of the total food expenditure of the bottom quintile; the single
biggest source of energy and protein at 34% compared to fish (14%), pork
(9%), and poultry (6%); and the biggest contributor to per-capita availability
of calories at 46% compared to sugar (8%), wheat (7%), and pork (7%).
The bulk of Filipinos’food consumption goes to cereals, followed by meat

and fish; per capita consumption of vegetables only averages 22 kg per year,
compared to the FAO recommendation of 146-182 kg per year (Briones et al.
2017). This results in high deficiencies of vitamins in the diet.
Poverty is the fundamental cause of malnutrition and is seen as the main

hindrance to a healthy diet. The future food system transformation that is
going to take place in 2050 and beyond will revitalize the economy, as this will
spur employment (both self-employment and wage employment). Its holistic
nature will allow employment to extend far beyond farm production to
include a wide range of activities, including food processing, transportation,
and retail. And, as incomes rise, local demand for and spending patterns on
food will change. The overall share of expenditure on food continues to rise,
but the shares of those increases spent on cereal decline relative the share
spent on fresh, processed, and convenience foods (IFPRI 2018).
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The changing dietary patterns and food demand in the cities will drive the
shift in agriculture from a monoculture cereal, or industrial production, to
more diversified, or artisanal, production in rural areas. Urban agriculture will
also be popular.
Impacts of Climate Change on Production

and Yields in the Philippines
A study by Perez and Rosegrant (2019) assessed the direct impacts of climate
change on agriculture, which affects crop productivity as a result of heat and
water stress (IPCC 2014).
Studies project that by 2050, the world’s total agricultural crop yields may
fall by 4.5% on average, compared with baseline levels reflecting no climate
change as shown in Figure 4.6_1.
Historical data Historical data

Without climate change Without climate change
With climate change With climate change
Figure 4.6_1. Historical and Average Projected Agricultural Crop Yields, with and
without Climate Change, 1970–2050
Source: Perez and Rosegrant (2019)
Note: Data are based on average values from the four climate models underlying the analyses
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In the Philippines, Perez and Rosegrant (2019) projected that climate change
will cause yields to fall by 2.9%, on average, with positive yield effect on
fruit and vegetables, pulses, and roots and tubers. For rice and corn, the
negative yield impacts are lower for the Philippines than for the rest of the
world, at 4.1% and 7.7% for rice, respectively, and 15.7% and 18.8% for corn,
respectively (Table 4.6_1).
Given the extensive cultivation of cereals (in this case, rice and corn),
sugarcane (accounting for more than 50% of agricultural land), tree crops
(such as coconuts, and fruit and nut trees), and perennials (such as bananas
and coffee), overall Philippine production is projected to decline by 1.7%
owing to climate change, despite positive average impacts on all other crops
(Table 4.6_1).
Cereal production is projected to decline by 6.1% by 2050 in comparison

with baseline levels, whereas fruit and vegetable production is projected to
rise by 3.9%. These results further emphasize the lower contraction in the
production of rice and corn in the Philippines, compared with the rest of the
world (Table 4.6_1).
Table 4.6_1. Average Projected Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture Globally

and in the Philippines, 2030 and 2050
The World Philippines
Impact of Climate Change 2030 2050 2030 2050
Change from Baseline Levels (%)
Crop yields
All crops -2.4 -4.5 -1.7 -2.9
Cereals -3.7 -6.9 -3.7 -7.6
Corn -10.4 -18.8 -7.6 -15.7
Rice -4.2 -7.7 -1.7 -4.1
Fruit and vegetables -0.3 -0.0 1.4 1.9
Pulses -1.2 -1.9 0.3 0.7
Roots and tubers -1.5 -2.6 0.0 0.2
Sugarcane -5.8 -11.2 -4.1 -8.3
Crop production
All Crops -1.9 -3.4 -1.0 -1.7
Cereals -3.4 -6.0 -2.3 -6.1
Corn -8.3 -17.0 -5.8 -13.0
Rice -2.9 -5.5 -0.6 -3.2
Fruit and vegetables -0.8 -1.7 2.0 3.9
Pulses -1.3 -2.4 -0.3 0.5
Roots and tubers -1.7 -2.9 -0.5 -0.5
Sugarcane -1.7 -3.2 -1.8 -3.0
World/consumer prices
Cereals 10.6 23.9 14.0 24.3
Corn 22.7 44.4 22.7 44.4
Rice 12.0 25.7 12.0 17.2
Wheat 2.3 11.1 2.3 11.1
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The World Philippines
Impact of Climate Change 2030 2050 2030 2050
Change from Baseline Levels (%)
Fruit and vegetables 4.5 9.6 6.1 12.7
Pulses 6.0 12.0 6.0 11.6
Roots and tubers 4.2 8.3 2.5 5.8
Sugar 3.9 7.5 3.9 7.5
Consumption
Cereals -1.8 -4.2 -2.0 -3.1
Corn, as food -4.9 -8.62 -3.2 -5.6
Corn, as feed -10.6 -21.48 -8.7 -18.2
Rice -2.7 -5.41 -2.2 -2.9
Wheat -0.6 -2.77 -0.7 -3.4
Fruit and vegetables -0.8 -1.67 -1.2 -2.3
Pulses -0.7 -1.27 -0.2 -0.4
Roots and tubers -1.5 -2.49 -0.5 -0.9
Sugar -1.1 -2.05 -1.3 -2.4
Source: Perez and Rosegrant (2019)

Note: Data compare average results of climate change simulations from the four general circulation
models underlying the analyses in this chapter with baseline results under a scenario of no
climate change.
Towards a Transformed Agricultural Food

Systems
Philippine commercial agriculture requires a massive systemic
transformation toward sustainability. As the country’s agriculture has
continued to expand and intensify, its wide-ranging negative externalities
have taken toll on the very resource base that supports its productivity.
Across the country, environmental degradation has been rampant, as

various natural areas were planted to high-value crops of high demand in
the international markets. Major challenges in Philippine agriculture include:
deforestation, soil erosion and degradation, greenhouse gas emissions,
mangrove ecosystems degradation and water and air pollution, among
others. Environmental challenges clearly drive the need for green agriculture
in the country.
The aim of transforming Philippine agriculture toward sustainability is

founded on our aspirations of achieving a genuine green agriculture sector for
the country. However, a closer look of the current policies indicates that the
Philippine government has just started to formulate policies that embody the
elements of green agriculture.
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The initial seeds of applications of green agriculture can be observed in a

number of direct regulations, and through a number of market instruments
applied to the agriculture sector of the Philippines.
These were promulgated in the Philippine Development Plan and in

the Organic Agriculture Act of 2010 (RA 10068) that provide regulatory
mechanisms related to green agriculture. Also related to this are a number of
specific instruments that correct and create markets, such as the Philippine
Good Agriculture Practices (PhilGAP), Environmental Users’Fee system,
environmental accounting, and payments for watershed protected and
conservation, among other interventions.
Unfortunately, more significant gains from these interventions have yet to be

felt, especially since these are currently implemented only sporadically.
The traditional view of the food system is that it is linear, with three
sequential steps: production, marketing, and consumption. This kind of
system will not sustain us to 2050. We need additional components, post-
production and waste management, and make the system circular with
responsible consumption at its core. The traditional way of fixing the system
is to work on the production side, which explains why we always view the
problem as a problem for the Department of Agriculture.
Occasionally, marketing is the problem: when traders deliberately manipulate

supply, prices go up, and consumers complain. We never looked at the
consumer as part of the problem. The consumer, to our mind, is always the
victim.
The reality is that the consumer is at the core of the system. When we choose
to eat white rice, for example, the farmer responds by producing the grain
and the millers respond by removing most of the nutrients from the grain to
produce the white rice. The retailer delivers it to us in plastic bags.
As a consequence, we suffer because excessive white rice consumption

is linked to chronic diseases (Liang et al. 2010; Hu et al. 2012; van Dam
et al. 2020). Environment suffers from the extravagant use of water and
land resources, pollution in the rice farms as well as from plastics used in
marketing. Ironically, the farmer also suffers because there is not enough
money from growing rice to meet the family’s basic needs.
Imagine what will happen if the consumers change their food habits and
decide to eat brown rice, and less rice, but more mungbean (Figure 4.6_2).
These will encourage the rice farmer to include mungbean in his farming
system, earn more, and spend less on fertilizer for rice, because mungbean
can supply some of the soil nutrients.
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Consequently, pollution will be reduced, because about half of the chemical

fertilizers applied to rice are not used by the plant, and end up as pollutants.
Furthermore, the miller will produce brown rice, with a 10% higher milling
recovery, solving our perennial problem of shortage (note that we import
about 10% of our rice requirement every year). Other spillover effects could
be the pressure from the consumer to use biodegradable packaging materials
such as the bayong, instead of plastics. Such as shift could revive the use
local packaging materials derived from bamboo, palm and banana leaves.
With more nutritious brown rice being consumed daily, the population will be
expected to be healthier.
This analysis shows that consumer behavior ultimately determines the

outcome and impact of the food system. Therefore, we propose a change
in consumer behavior as a starting point for fixing our dysfunctional food
system (Figure 4.6_2).
Figure 4.6_2. Consequences of Consumer Choice of Food and Packaging.
Socio-Technological Innovations for the

Agriculture Sector
Overall, there is clearly a wide gap between the aspirations and applications
of sustainable agricultural technologies in the Philippines that would
significantly improve productivity and social impact.
The major contributing factors to this limitation include the inefficient

regulatory application on land use and environment management policies,
lack of environment financing, and the lack of knowledge and skills to
mitigate environmental risks from agriculture. In terms of policy direction,
the country needs to fully realize that changing the position of its agriculture
sector from being purely extractive in nature to green agriculture is possible.
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While rather slow, the transformation of agriculture in the Philippines

is gradually taking form by addressing various environmental risks and
impacts from agriculture. Such slow-paced development could be related to
challenges in coordination, trust and funding—as has been pointed out by key
players, such as the local governments and the private sector.
For local government units, the need to fully decentralize policies would
be instrumental in allowing them to play active leadership in agriculture.
For the private sector, their initiatives for improving overall environmental
performance have become the norm in response to international standards
and markets, and they would need substantial support from the government
to fully sustain their momentum.
This can be done by increasing government focus on technology transfers and

skills development to further mitigate environmental degradation—such as
accrediting certifying bodies, providing training and information for farmers
on technologies that would reduce risks from commercial agriculture, and
promoting good agricultural practice including organic agriculture and farm
diversification.
Other methods will require mainstreaming of environmental regulations in

local government unit (LGU) development plans, prioritizing environmental
risk mitigation in government development programs and investment plans,
efficient monitoring and evaluation of regulatory measures like banning of
aerial spraying, measuring low carbon emissions, and creating a biodiversity
index. Such measures can be implemented at the national level.
Figure 4.6_3 below shows a listing of proposed priority areas for research and
technologies in agriculture and allied fields to accelerate the transformation
of the agriculture sector and strengthen its contribution to socio-economic
development—particularly toward resilience against pandemics.
State universities and colleges are expected to pursue academic and research
programs that accelerate the science and art of agriculture toward economic
development. Agricultural research themes and modalities have been put
in place such that higher education institutions (HEIs) can re-orient their
research and development programs from a business perspective towards
systemic change of the agriculture sector.
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Food Security Pillars

Availability Accessibility Stability Utilization
• Local and international • Transport and logistic • Financial • Transboundary food
trading system system technologies quality standards
• (National) Food reserves • Use of online platform • Environmental risks • Trande regulation
Transcdisciplinal
• GIS and remote sensing, and internet-based and management and standards
Biosphere
Artificial intelligence solution • Weater-index • Circular economy

• Big data system • Automated weather based agricultural • Registration
• Commercial and Industrial stations and systems insurance and certifcation
farming • Land conversion and systems
optimization
• Biofuels
• Organic and traditional • Good Agricultural • Risk • Responsible
farming Practices (GAP) Communication consumption
• Controlled environment • Crop insurance system • Agricultural policies behavior promotion
frarming (i.e., soil-less • Integerate-on-farm and regulations • Food quality and
agriculture, hydro- and value adding • Environmental safety
Ecosystem/Landscape
aquaponics, vertical • ICT-based farming governance • Food technology for

farming • Efficient irrigation health and wellness
Interdisciplinal
• Urban agriculture system • Product traceablity
• Precision farming • Industrial farming
• Conservation agriculture • Cold storage facilities
• Integrated pest • Post harvest
management technologies
• Zoonotic diseases • Waste management
management (i.e., food waste)
• Plant biomass (i.e., straw)
management
Modalities
Levels of Analysis
• Animal waste management

• Pest and disease • Digital farms • Community bio- • Food quality and
management • High-pressure, efficacy trial safety
• Plants and soil nutrient hydraulic system • Weather variability • Food technology for
management • High-speed, high and forecasting health and wellness
Population/Communities
• Post-harvest management precision equipment • Price fluctuations • Food sensory

• Participatory varietal • Hyroponics/ and economic evaluation
Multidisciplinal
selection aquaponics factors of • Food processing
• Biotic and abiotic crop • Remote sensing production • Halal awareness
tolerant varieties and standards
• School, home, and
community gardens land
use policies
• Sustainable animal and
fish nutrition
• Nutrient-enrichment of
food
• Molecular assisted • Genetic breeding • Genes insertion • Bioefficacy and
Genes, Cells, Organisms
breeding • Hologenome selection stability bioavailability of

• Nanotechnology • High-throughout novel products
Disciplinal
• Transgenic technology phenotyping • Food safety

• Biotechnology • Tissue culture/embryo • Pesticide use and
rescue regulations
• Bioinformatics
• CRISPR-CAS
Medical trials
Processor/
Farmer/ Producers Distributor/ Retailer Consumer
Manufacturing
Components of the Food System
Figure 4.6_3. Examples of Proposed Key Priority Areas for Research and Technologies
in Agriculture
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Transformation in the Filipino Diet

The Planetary Health Diet (PHD) is a general guide that is sufficiently flexible
for application to local conditions, down to the provincial level. It differs from
traditional guides such as Pinggang Pinoy in that the impact of consumption
on the environment is factored in. The difference between our existing diet
and the PHD is in diversity, best seen in the colorful plates of the PHD (Figure
4.6_4). On the other hand, the typical diet is dominated by white rice. If
the diversity is duplicated in the farms, farmers are expected to benefit by
having a more sustainable farming environment and higher income This
would address the third concern of the food system: the farmer. (The first two
concerns are consumer health and nutrition, and environmental health.)
Figure 4.6_4. Comparison Between the Typical Filipino Diet (left) and Different
Versions of the Planetary Health Diet (right)
Source: EAT (2019)
In the context of the Philippines, adhering to the PHD will drastically change
the food consumption pattern, and ultimately, the structure of farming. For
example, the 36% reduction in rice consumption mandated by the PHD may
reshape the Philippine agricultural landscape. It may free up as much as 1.5
million ha of prime agricultural land for more nutritious, more profitable, and
environment-friendly crops.
If rice is replaced by mungbean, which is needed in large quantities, the

environment will benefit because mungbean production produces less
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greenhouse gases and uses less water than rice. If these available rice areas
are grown to high-value vegetables, which command higher prices, it will
increase farmers’incomes, enhance participation of women and children in
farming, and increase the supply of affordable and nutritious food in the farm
family and other consumers.
Growing high-value vegetables and fruits through an environment-friendly

production system will help reduce GHG emission and preservation of human
health and natural resources. Farmers seeking to diversify rice production
of rice areas into production of other high-value crops may be funded by
tariff collections from rice imports exceeding PHP10 billion under Article 13,
Section 13 (Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund) of RA 11203, or rice
trade liberalization law.
Changing eating habits will not be easy and may not be initiated by giving
the children a more nutritious and varied diet at a young age, one rich in
vegetables and fruits, and by educating these children about the health
benefits of such a diet. Improving the nutritional condition and dietary habits
of school-aged children by increasing and enabling year-round production
of locally adapted and highly nutritious vegetables and fruits through school
and home gardening may contribute to improving academic performance
of school children, alleviating hunger, and securing their family’s food and
nutrition.
This is why we plan for a 30-year sustained effort. The middle class is
educated, and more willing to experiment with food choices. The basic
change we aim for is the change in the food selection criteria from the present
(based on price, convenience, and taste) to one that will be driven by data and
values.
For this, the consumer may need help from a modern tool for data- and
values-driven food buying that gives food recommendations based on
genomic data. The idea is for the consumers to submit their genomic
information, which will be analyzed followed by advice on what food to eat
and what food to avoid. This system can be improved by using other data, like
the PHD recommendations and their budgets, and values that may involve
concern for the local farmer, animal welfare, and religion. We can tentatively
call this PHD Plus App, and use the smartphone as a platform to guide grocery
shopping or ordering food from a cloud kitchen (Rasco 2020).
Key features differentiating the envisioned 2050 food system from the existing
system to be adapted to the maritime and archipelagic features of the
Philippines are as follows:
1. Individual consumption decisions will be data- and values-

driven. Biological needs, financial capability, concern for the farmer
and the environment, and preferences dictated by religion and
tradition will be factored in. The envisioned PHD Plus App will assist
food shopping. Prepared food supplied by“cloud kitchens”—i.e.,
shared commercial facilities purpose-built for food delivery—will be
the norm.
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2. Connection between food producers and the consumer will

be more direct. There will be multiple channels: among these are
farmers’markets, food terminals, and direct delivery from farm to
household or food service providers.
3. Food production will be highly diversified, local, and seasonal.

This will provide food security against disruptions caused by
calamities, and provide additional income for local farmers.
4. Production will be closer to the kitchen, as urban and peri-

urban farms get a bigger share of the food market. Controlled
environment farming (i.e., soil-less agriculture, hydro- and aqua-
ponics, and vertical farming) is the necessary innovation, as land
and water resources for traditional farms are finite. It is an added
assurance of food security, amid environmental concerns.
5. Food production from the aquatic environment will grow

faster than land-based production. The aquatic resources around
Metro Manila are extensive, with Manila Bay, Laguna de Bay, and
Taal Lake. In contrast, agricultural lands are being converted to other
uses.
6. The food system will be circular. Material and energy will be

recovered from waste, valued as a resource, and returned to the
farms and households. The result will be cleaner cities and reduced
external inputs in food production.
7. Steps in the food system will be inter-connected, allowing for a

high-level of transparency and efficiency. Farmers and consumers
will have more market power.
8. Reduced postharvest losses with adequate dryer and cold

chain. This is also an added assurance that farmers will not be
pressured to sell cereal crops with high moisture contents and a
perishable product at a low price.
9. A revived industry based on the use of biodegradable

materials for food packaging. This is a game-changer for creating a
new industry and reducing pollution from the food system.
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SECTION 4.7
HEALTH SYSTEMS
Our population age structure is relatively young as of 2020, with a fertility rate
that will likely maintain a well-sized working-age population, our fastest-growing
age group is over 60 years. By 2050, the Philippine population is likely to have a
larger proportion of older people (Reyes et al. 2019).
With adequate human development, the future population that is nurtured

towards high societal and economic quality can be an asset. Only with good
health enabling productivity can the potential of Filipino human capital be
harnessed. Even paradigms—such as the fourth industrial revolution—are
premised on maximizing health throughout the life-course, since productivity
among the elderly is prepared in the decades prior to old age.
The population is, officially, over 50% urbanized in terms of residence as of

2015, though the definition of“urban”also factors into this statistic (PSA
2019c). Regardless, mental health and chronic illness trends are compatible
with some degree of leapfrogging into“diseases of modernization and
urbanization”,even as“old”public health problems persist: tuberculosis,
malaria, and neglected tropical diseases, also known as“diseases of
poverty”.Ironically, we are one of the top promising economies globally,
which would only accelerate the transition toward so-called lifestyle diseases
and, soon enough, ailments of longevity—an uptrend that has already begun.
The most vexing layer of the problem of population health is that of inequity
in health—a social divide that worsens the picture regardless of what the
health issue might be. Gaps exist between socioeconomic groups, so their
contexts, health issues, and necessary solutions vary in material ways. As
intrinsically undesirable as inequity is, it also adds to the breadth of health
issues we face, which stretches our responses thin.
The country’s health systems did not grow or develop at pace with the
country’s population. The evidence of stagnation is varied, and conspicuous,
most poignantly by the historically high proportion of Filipino deaths going
unattended by a health professional.
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Health Systems
To be fair, local champions of health have not been silent, following each
attempt at health reform with another, sometimes using various approaches,
and sometimes iterating on the same critical ones. The latest of these is the
Universal Health Care (UHC) Act, an ambitious law that, while not perfect,
may at least be said to have learned from the past. Its success will ultimately
depend on excellence in implementation.
It was also fitting to have an almost experimental setup of UHC

implementation, when the UHC Integration Sites were recognized (DOH
2019). There were criteria to fulfil before it could be considered“integrated”,
and there is national government assistance on offer for integration activities
by serious contenders. By espousing a vision through the Act, defining its
framework and outcomes, implementing provinces and cities were allowed
to devise the most appropriate solutions and methods from which the rest of
the country can learn.
Within the health sector, it was in this pre-implementation context of UHC

that this 30-year Foresight was commissioned. Thus, Foresight positions
the health science, technology, and innovation (STI) areas in the role of
supercharging the UHC sites’integration processes, using STIs as tools, and
developing them further for the express purpose of accelerating the pursuit of
UHC.
However, the COVID-19 pandemic struck the Philippines just as the Foresight
project was taking off, and it taught valuable lessons that highlight the
very problems the UHC Act and its predecessor reforms sought to address.
This pandemic exposed the vulnerabilities of the health system to such
emergencies. Public health crises highlight and intensify existing problems
more than they create novel ones.
The Vision: Universal Health Care as

Starting Point for the Foresight
In light of the well-known challenges for health in the Philippines, UHC as an
agenda, and as embodied in RA 11223, was seen as a worthwhile goal. This
agenda unpacks the health future envisioned in the national development
plan, AmBisyon Natin 2040, to acknowledge the challenges when pursuing
the health aspects of the Philippine Development Plan. It also organizes a set
of responses to these challenges, in domains of reform cascading from the
structural and policy levels down to the operational front lines of care, now
backed by the law.
The Universal Health Care Act is a unifying framework for all UHC-related
pursuits in the country after 2019. UHC is not unique to the Philippines. It is
a global goal for health. It is well established in the literature that several key
areas are generally regarded as intrinsic, or instrumental, to the attainment
of the right to health care for all people. This is distinct from, but inclusive of,
universal health coverage, in which the defining features of success are that
health care is financially accessible to those who need it, when they need it;
and that it does not impoverish those who use it.
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UHC figured early in the health foresight process by defining the central
problem as unequal access to health care (Figure 4.7_1). From the Problem
Tree, we identified four main axes of factors driving the problem, namely:
(1) patient-side health literacy governing how or whether they access

care
(2) quantity, distribution, and quality of health facilities
(3) health financing alongside affordability of care
(4) health workforce concerns
Insufficient budget and resource allocation was determined as a major

concern as it was connected to three of the four main axes identified.
Higher Morbidity Rate Higher Mortality Rate
Low usage of health programs

(preventive and therapeutic)
UNEQUAL ACCESS TO QUALITY HEALTHCARE
Poor Limited capacity Lack of Inefficient Unaffordable Lack of Lack of

Health of health Health health health care Health Human Discrimination enabling
Literacy institutions Facilities financing services Resource policies/laws
Limited access Difficulty of accesss

to health due to geographic
Insufficient
education location Inadequate
Corruption in budget and
compensation Brain Drain
Government resource
and training
allocation
Poor health
seeking
behavior
POVERTY
Figure 4.7_1. Health Group Problem Tree Analysis Output from the STI Foresight
SWOT and TOWS Workshop on 22-23 October 2020.
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The Science and Technology Application

and Innovation System Areas
By utilizing the Nominal Group Technique, eight areas of scientific pursuit
that are perceived to be most important in achieving UHC by 2050 were
identified with 68 STIs identified through the Delphi method (Figure 4.7_2):
1. Health Information Technology. Far beyond replacing the use of

paper, health information technology (IT) is a cross-cutting field that
should be promoted in ways that synergize with other health system
components, to address problems in UHC integration.These range from
maximizing health workforce productivity through automation-driven
efficiencies to fueling the sustainability of small-enterprise ancillary
medical service providers, real-time authenticated payments, and other
breakthroughs.
Health IT’s interactions with other STI areas are also rich veins of
potential breakthroughs for UHC. Connectivity can facilitate access by
the health workforce to its own development tools, or by the populace
to health literacy resources, to name only two examples. The Philippines
has some catching up to do at the level of enabling environments such
as national infrastructure, while opportunities abound for information
technology (telepresence, Internet of Things (IoT)-enabled diagnostic
devices, and artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted decision support and
analytics, and more) to allow us to outgrow traditional or outdated
pathways toward universal health care.
2. Health Policy and Systems Research. We have long understood

that in the production of health, health policies themselves can be both
dependent and independent variables, interacting also with other factors
and the wider Philippine context (Atienza 2004).
Because complexity is part of UHC, it should be navigated using systems

thinking and multidisciplinary approaches, all focused on health equity.
Health policy and systems research (HPSR) in its short history has
pioneered all three of these qualities in health, and it can and should be
used further to help us in thinking about health systems, keeping pace
with the evolution of disease management and information utilization,
and grappling with health determinants far beyond health systems
(Peters 2018).
The rise of HPSR is timely at this juncture, as our latest health reforms,
learning from those of the 2000s, could perfect those of the 1990s
that underestimated the challenge of important principles declared
in the 1970s. Indeed, HPSR allows“governments to become learning
organizations,”to know what works and what does not, and why—an
ability that could spell the difference between adaptive success and
stagnant failure over a thirty-year foresight period (Peters 2018).
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Health Policy and Health Financing Health Information Technology

Systems Research
• Blockchain technology and • Electronic Health Records/
• Clinic management system payment system Health Information System*
• Primary care algorithm • Attractive compensation for • Telehealth platforms
• Vaccination program healthcare workers • Artificial intelligence
• Cost effectiveness • Efficient sin tax collection • Data analytics
evaluation system* • Health informatics • Internet connectivity*
• Government policy • IT architecture and tele- • Disease tracking
• Health informatics programs communication backbone • Knowledge management
• Health technology assessment • Budget allocation on R&D • Precision medicine
• Implementation science • Automated claims • Accessible public health
• National health indicators reimbursement system databases
• Real-time socialized payment • Biomedical devices
scheme
Health Workforce Biotechnology

Enhancement
• Locally manufactured
• E-learning platform, biomedical devices*
Online learning, Massive • Rapid and molecular
Open Online Course (MOOC)* diagnostics*
• Manpower database* • Wearables and sensors
• Virtual /augmented reality, • 3D printing
use of robots for training • Robotics
• Remote screening and • Natural products and
monitoring of healthcare therapy using natural
workers products*
• Diagnostic system for • Genomics
primary care physicians* • Nano biotechnology
• Information system records* • Regenerative medicine and
• Proper compensation of stem cell technology
healthcare workers • Assistive and supportive
• On-demand learning modules devices
Environment Health Literacy Precision Public Health

• Green architecture
• Health waste management, • Public health education and • Omics technology
disposal, and recycling* information* • Precision medicine
• Biosensors for environment • Digital platforms and • Genome database
• Antibiotic resistance electronic systems* development and access*
monitoring (ARM) • Gamification • Artificial intelligence
• Health impact assessment • Mobile health • Vaccination program
• Risk mitigation device • Community engagement • Programs for affordable drugs
• Artificial intelligence • Telehealth • Health information system*
• Vaccination program
• Training of specialists
• Policy environment
Figure 4.7_2. The Top 68 STIs Identified in the Delphi Activity Covering All of the Eight
Identified Priority Areas.
Note: STIs in bold with asterisk (*) are the 15 STIs that gained a high median criticalness score (median = 5
and 6) with high consensus among the participants (IQR = 0).
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Health Systems
3. Health Workforce Enhancement. In any population, and for any

health outcome, health improvements are only possible if structural
determinants like human resources for health are addressed (Cometto
and Witter 2013). Health workforce density is the most influential of the
16 indicators contributing to the UHC Service Coverage Index, ranking
first overall among 183 countries, first among low- and middle-income
countries, and third among high income countries (Reid et al. 2020).
Optimal health workforce management can also generate meaningful

employment, bolstering economic growth and global health security
(Cometto et al. 2020). However, the scope of health workforce
development must surpass the usual health workforce density“targets”.
Better metrics should measure better practices. Dodd et al (2019)
suggested the prioritization of five areas for the strengthening of primary
health care (PHC) systems such as non-physician health workforce
(NPHW) development, integrating non-communicable diseases (NCD)
prevention and control, building managerial capacity, institutionalizing
community engagement, and modernizing PHC information systems.
Community health workers, can improve the coverage, efficiency,

and quality of PHC (Dodd et al. 2019), including in NCD prevention
and management. Harnessing some NPHW cadres will also require
administrative-regulatory considerations regarding the type and extent
of their autonomy, recognition as primary care providers, and authority
or privilege to prescribe, to bill for their services, or to provide access to
hospital diagnostics and admission (McCleery et al. 2011).
Capacity-building encompasses pre-service and in-service health

professional education and its associated technologies. Decision-support
tools, especially if linked to health information systems may provide
a much-needed boost to the quality and coverage of health services
in remote locations (Dodd et al. 2019). However, the introduction of
new technologies or treatments would likely entail end-user training
and enabling environments for their proper use, and that all of the
costs associated with these should be weighed alongside the costs and
effectiveness of the interventions themselves (Nemec and Chan 2017).
Although task-shifting to NPHW cadres dominates UHC discourse, the

larger goals of UHC can and will have implications in all manner of
medical practice. The large unmet need for surgical care has prompted
surgical task-shifting to both non-physician clinicians and non-specialist
physicians at first level hospitals around the world (Falk et al. 2020).
Essential surgical services should not be left out from comprehensive
first-contact care, and often fall upon the available primary care
physician (PCP) in many parts of the Philippines. The need to equip PCPs
accordingly has been known for decades (Weddington et al. 1986) and
calls for innovations in training, collaborative practice, and supportive
policy (Kim et al. 2020).
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4. Health Financing. As a field of study and practice, health financing

has some of the most direct linkages to health equity and access. It is also
evolving, not the least by the growing alliance among ethics, sociology,
economics, the health sciences, and others in emerging fields that study
and influence decision making itself.
The strategic value of health financing spans all of health development:

from the pre-service stage as the great purchaser and stimulus of health
care inputs, all the way through to the monitoring of its performance and
distribution, if it is measured consistently and with nuance. No pursuit of
UHC would be complete without enhancing our scientific understanding
of the implementational tools for health financing, impacting the
generation of funds; their proper allocation; how to safeguard and inform
the processes of arriving at such decisions; the realities around actual
expenditure and transfers; and the feedback and analysis of health
intelligence from these processes.
Merely mainstreaming financial technology, or‘fin-tech’, in health

could be a game-changer in operationalizing UHC, granting such
newfound powers in health as transparency, security, timeliness, public-
private participation, and hopefully, redistributive justice. However,
directing these capabilities toward the ultimate goal of health equity
will require that the end-products of research and innovation in health
financing engage with a wider range of issues. These new knowledge
should extend upward to the national and global movements that
influence prioritization of health and within health, as well as outward
and downward to the sociological, psychological, and potentially
neurochemical roots of decision making by patients, health providers,
and policy makers alike.
5. Health Literacy. The widely-used World Health Organization (WHO)

building blocks framework guides health system investments, but it
focuses on the supply side of care and overlooks how much more human
health is produced outside of clinical settings than inside them (Peters
2018; Remington et al. 2015). Addressing this gap, health literacy has
emerged from being a“silent epidemic”to a forefront issue (Hersh et
al. 2015). By empowering self-care in homes and communities, health
literacy holds promise for UHC not only in driving demand and access to
health services, but also in continuing the production of health before
and after these services are rendered or instructed.
Stewards of health mistakenly assume that our patients can seek,

understand, navigate, and interact with the touch points of our industry,
such as prescriptions, explanations, and schedules (Kelly and Haidet
2007). Unfortunately, patients with low health literacy have poorer access
to health care and suffer worse health outcomes (Johnson et al. 2013;
Levy and Janke 2016) across a wide range of indicators. Most concerning
is the concordance between the risk factors for low health literacy, and
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Health Systems
those for health inequity in general: the same markers of socioeconomic

disadvantage predispose to both (Johnson et al. 2013). Health literacy is,
therefore, highly relevant to UHC, and is an explicitly-declared goal in the
opening clauses of the UHC Act.
It is fitting that some recommend universal health literacy precautions,

given the futility of screening to detect which patients have low literacy
(Hersh et al. 2015). There are in fact various tools and methods that are
useful for patient encounters within and beyond the physician’s clinic,
and that are poised to diversify and, hopefully, increase in effectiveness
through more proactive, participative, and integrated digital approaches
(Johnson et al. 2013; Dunn and Conard 2018; Conard 2019). It is
with a sense of urgency that this field is beginning to innovate. As it
transitions from gaining a firm grasp of the problems and potentials
of health literacy, it looks forward to deepening our knowledge of
their mechanisms, and ultimately designing and executing solutions
(Nutbeam et al. 2018). The literature reveals no shortage of ways in which
health literacy can develop, including which interventions best enhance
literacy, where and when it matters most, what materials and touch
points patients must grapple with, and how to measure literacy, to name
a few challenges.
6. Biotechnology. Biotechnology can be harnessed for UHC from

biomedical and economic perspectives, which are not mutually exclusive.
First, its capabilities can be directed to answer national health priorities
in ways that all Filipinos can access, provided these directions are
properly incentivized. Greenwood (2010) suggests steering the industry
with viability-enhancing‘push’and revenue-enhancing‘pull’policies,
market commitments, and other financing, policy, and regulatory
options. Such as move is important because biotechnology has longer,
and more costly, development cycles than traditional pharmaceuticals,
and contends with more complex challenges from drug discovery
and development to manufacturing and distribution. At all of these
stages, STIs may introduce efficiencies that increase viability, as we
can see for drug discovery (Bull et al. 2000). Second, the industry can
also be strengthened as part of an innovation economy, and an Asian
Bioeconomy, on a larger multi-Sustainable Development Goal (SDG)
scale, retaining high-wage innovation talent, providing more inclusive
jobs, and sustainably harnessing biodiversity (Pisupati and Srinivas
2015).
Domestic enterprises appear particularly advantageous for strategic

reasons. As the Philippines transitions toward a higher income status,
we must prepare for ineligibility for some forms of development
assistance, including medical supplies (Balcha 2018). Domestic biotech
companies can build local manufacturing capability to wean the country
from dependence on foreign drug supplies, thus also avoiding some
uncertainties that the COVID-19 pandemic brought to focus. Local
enterprises’entry into the market can drive down prices of biologicals
dramatically as foreign multinationals pivot to compete (Frew et al.
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2008). Domestic companies can also proactively innovate business

models that open up neglected markets, just as hundreds of franchises in
India facilitate cold chains from warehouses to clinics in urban and rural
poor areas (Frew et al. 2008).
In all respects, biotechnological progress should avoid the ‘unacceptable

trade-offs’for UHC, and instead support and align with evidence-based
prioritization of health and equity needs (Norheim 2015). Tailoring the
growth of the biotechnology industry to the country’s specific needs
rather than falling into the trap of merely shifting from less to more
technology.
The need for biotechnology development may also be heightened by

population growth and ageing, as well as UHC funding itself which can
all further increase health care demand. However, policy, regulatory, and
financing environments need to be conducive at sufficient magnitudes
and timescales for this industry, to build businesses that can address
UHC challenges (Greenwood 2010).
In this regard, the versatility of biotech innovation should be deliberately

harnessed. The gains of nurturing biotechnology to the point of
bringing its health benefits to all Filipinos will spill over into agricultural,
industrial, food, and environmental sectors (Okonko et al. 2006). These
should be pursued toward the inclusive and sustainable future we want.
7. Precision Public Health. The promise and birth pains of Precision

Public Health (PPH) make it an area of STI work relevant to improving
health for all Filipinos. Important questions still frame the jump-
starting of this field (Weeramanthri et al. 2018). STIs can shed light on
the“precision”aspects, and technologies themselves, their effects,
and how to use them—particularly in relation to the classical tenets,
techniques, and, especially, the health equity goals of public health. The
concept exceeds its origins in genomics, and is more than a question
of technological capability; in fact it calls for“a modernization of
surveillance, epidemiology, and information systems, as well as targeted
interventions and a population health perspective (Khoury et al. 2016).
For developing countries, in particular, some experts advise a“back to
basics”approach to PPH targeting improvements in birth and death
registries, geographic disease surveillance data, laboratory capacity, and
epidemiological know-how (Dowell et al. 2016).
Despite the lack of a consensus definition of‘precision public health’,

there are complementary proposals, and one undisputed feature is
the centrality of data and informatics (Weeramanthri et al. 2018). This
is expected to enable more granular epidemiological studies that can
target interventions more precisely, and more preventively. Empowering
this paradigm shift would require STIs to enhance the health sector’s
skills and tools in“epidemiology, data linkage, informatics, and
communications”,placing data and informatics at the heart of PPH in
much the same way that epidemiology is at the heart of traditional public
health (Weeramanthri et al. 2018).
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Health Systems
Without this perspective, PPH“is at risk of becoming precision medicine

at a population level”(Olstad and McIntyre 2019). Instead, it should
be cognizant of the“route from cell to bench to person to population”
(Weeramanthri et al. 2018).
Although the target outcomes of precision technologies are often

expressed in the language of health services for individuals, albeit with
a more preventive slant, major proponents of PPH envision that the end
users of PPH as re-conceptualized for true public health can, and should,
include community health systems (Rao 2019).
In a similar vein, the use of PPH technologies and approaches should

be geared toward root causes. They should unpack, through higher-
resolution analyses, the broad“master categories”of social position
and their health effects, into nuanced understandings and treatments
specifically targeting those most in need (Olstad and McIntyre 2019).
Rao (2019) observes that examples abound of how PPH can impact
numerous challenges in health, but these largely come from developed
countries, thus implying a transplantation imperative for STI in the
Philippines, if PPH is to play its proper role in UHC.
8. Environment. The UHC Act is premised on a holistic view of health,

reiterating national commitments to healthy living conditions that
can be traced to our affirmation that health is a human right. The
physical environment accounts for an estimated 10% of human health
production, or up to 24% to 33% of global disease burden, with health
effects mediated through various exposures and injuries (Remington et
al. 2015; Prüss-Üstün and Corvalán 2006).
If these are ignored, health gains over the past decades can be eroded
by various environmental threats to health (Whitmee et al. 2015). The
Philippines is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world, a
fact that is self-evident annually through severe tropical weather and
volcanic and tectonic activity, yet its vulnerable populations living in high
risk areas has only grown (Picazo et al. 2013).
Neglected tropical diseases, enmeshed with ecosystems through

pathogen life cycles and zoonotic vectors, continue to plague our poorest
provinces perennially through dengue, malaria, and debilitating, and
sometimes fatal, parasitoses.
There is a strong health equity angle to environmentally linked human

health. Morbidity and mortality attributable to environmental causes
disproportionately affect disadvantaged populations (Prüss-Üstün and
Corvalán 2006). Our children lose eight times more healthy life-years
from these illnesses versus children in developed countries (Prüss-Üstün
and Corvalán 2006). Developing countries like ours face the greatest risks
from climate change despite contributing the least to greenhouse gas
emissions (Campbell-Lendrum and Corvalán 2007).
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Hence, toward the goal of health for all, STIs addressing health through
our environment would be attacking root causes and risks to which
countless Filipinos are inescapably exposed, including the most
disadvantaged among us. Health STIs may discover entry points for
solutions coming from the realizations that economists are now coming
to terms with.
For starters, the fact that‘ecosystem services’heretofore taken for

granted are, in fact, legitimate and indispensable contributors to
both productivity and health because they determine how humanity
benefits or suffers from nature, whether tangible or intangible, such as
through food and water, floods and outbreaks, and even recreation and
spirituality (Whitmee et al. 2015).
Innovative technology can integrate, monitor, and help manage these

ecosystem services (Whitmee et al. 2015). Scientists face communication
and advocacy challenges as well in advancing the health-environment
agenda, for as long as this agenda is fettered by public and political
indifference, knowledge gaps, and implementation failures (Whitmee et
al. 2015; Watts et al. 2018).
In health and climate change alone, there is much room to innovate using
research investments focused on climate change and public health; the
scale-up of climate-resilient health systems, including disaster response
and adaptations in the food and agricultural sectors; city-level control of
carbon emissions; expansion of access to renewable energy; and forging
partnerships for collaborative work and political will (Watts et al. 2018).
Since the health-environment axis interfaces with other development

agendas—green economy, environmental preservation, and social
justice, to name a few—it is inevitably enriched by other frameworks with
slightly different approaches but, ultimately, similar aspirations.
Conclusion: Bridging Universal Health

Care and Science, Technology, and
Innovation
The UHC is subject to imperative needs that are real, palpable, and which
immediately affect human lives in the present. There is a sense of immediacy
and urgency to a human rights-focused goal like UHC, in contrast to the elbow
room afforded to this Foresight to proactively envision and work towards an
ideal future. Since the identification of priority areas and STIs is prospective
and capabilities-based in nature, there is always a need to reassess and
reconnect the STIs back to UHC.
A UHC goal-driven approach could be implemented through a focused group

discussion aimed at validating proposed attributes of Universal Health
Care and connecting the STIs to these approved UHC attributes. The UHC
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Health Systems
attributes themselves could stand as proxies for UHC, e.g., as the criteria
for scrutinizing the list of STIs. These attributes are expected to represent
domains and yardsticks of technological progress, being aspects of UHC that
such progress can attain.
The application of systems thinking methodologies would allow the

identification of technologies that are cross-cutting, as these would be seen
having outbound effects on multiple other technology areas and, perhaps,
multiple UHC attributes. These can be visualized with technology trees that
offer the advantage of showing the connections between, and among, the
STIs themselves. These could inform planners as to whether an STI on the
map should be given high priority—or low priority, as the case may be—
insofar as how it leads to UHC.
At the moment of writing this Foresight, the Philippines’response to the

COVID-19 pandemic revealed much about what is needed to secure the
health of its people. There is concern that the lessons learned therefrom
may be skewed toward COVID-19 itself at the expense of other health issues.
However, health crises typically exacerbate existing conditions, so it is far
more likely that the lessons learned from COVID-19 reinforce key directions
and recommendations that would have been called for even without the
pandemic, rather than counter or alter them. Many of the health system-
strengthening solutions accelerated by the pandemic are quite useful for
health system strengthening, in a horizontal cross-cutting sense, despite
being precipitated for a vertical reason.
In fine, one of the returning points of feedback was that universal health care
(as opposed to universal health coverage) should focus on health as a goal
that includes a far more inclusive definition beyond health services as the
target, and to incorporate societal factors like inclusive economic growth—an
argument which is also grounded in the anchoring principles of the UHC Act.
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SECTION 4.8
ENERGY
Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Philippines experienced a renewed

economic dynamism, growing at an average of 6.3% from 2010 to 2019 (World
Bank 2020a). Along with economic growth, electricity consumption was also
expected to increase by 2040 to nearly four times its 2018 level (Danao and
Ducanes 2018). Energy demand is projected to reach 43,765 megawatts (MW) by
2040, almost four times the 2018 demand (DOE 2019). The 100% electrification
target across the Philippines by 2022 is also likely to contribute to additional
demand (ADB 2018). All these factors prompted interest in attracting power
generation investments to meet the growing demand (Rivera 2019).
However, since the COVID-19 pandemic started in March 2020, operations

of industrial facilities and commercial establishments have slowed down,
and electricity generation and consumption have dropped (WESM-IEMOP
2020). Subsequently, the economic growth forecast for the country (ADB
2020a; World Bank 2020a) turned sour. The lower economic growth trajectory
means that electricity demand targets have been reduced. The outlook for
new investments in generation is especially bleak, given the current excess
capacity (Ravago and Roumasset 2020a, b). When the economy picks up,
the country may again face a problem of attracting sufficient investment
in generation. While addressing the public health problem is and should
be a primary concern, the country should also not lose sight of the need to
attract sufficient investments for long-term economic recovery: What are the
potential needs for 2040 or 2050?
Pre-COVID-19 or Pandemic Power Supply

and Demand Indicators
Benchmarking power supply and demand indicators of the Philippines
relative to other countries revealed that there is a limited supply of
power in the Philippines vis-à-vis consumption (Table 4.8_1). In 2014, the
Philippines had 17.95 gigawatts (GW) capacity serving 100 million Filipinos.
In comparison, its neighbors, Thailand and Malaysia, had 44.83 GW and 32.46
GW of power capacity serving their populations of 68 million and 30 million,
respectively. Electricity consumption per capita in the Philippines is the
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Energy
lowest compared to other ASEAN countries. In contrast, the price per kilowatt-
hour (kWh) is the highest in the region. It should be noted that Thailand,
Malaysia, and Singapore trade in electricity, and this potentially helps keep
power costs low.
Table 4.8_1. Power Supply and Demand Indicators in Selected Asian Countries,2014
Electricity Installed Share of
Generation Per capita Electricity renewables
per capita (a) electricity use (b) Capacity (c) in electricity Population (e)
(kWh/cap) (kWh/cap) (GW) capacities (d) (%) (in million)
Philippines 772 633 17.95 32.86 v
Indonesia 901 789 53.87 12.25 253
Malaysia 4,773 4,388 32.46 20.06 30
Singapore 8,949 8,586 13.18 1.95 6
Thailand 2,523 2,508 44.83 18.05 67
China 4,153 3,590 1,405.03 30.94 1,364
Japan 8,066 7,444 311.53 26.88 127

South Korea 10,797 9,928 93.71 11.68 50
GDP USD at
Residential Prices (f) Industrial Prices (g) constant price Electricity transport/
(USc05/kWh) (USc05/kWh) and exchange rate distribution losses (i)
(for 2013) (for 2013) (2005) per capita (h) (kWh/cap)
Philippines 13.84 9.91 1,650 73
Indonesia 4.19 4.82 1,878 85
Malaysia 6.07 6.17 7,295 193
Singapore 12.32 11.44 37,203 44
Thailand 8.03 5.33 3,457 157
China 4.55 6.38 3,826 239

Japan 22.60 16.26 37,607 367
South Korea 8.82 7.87 24,550 364
Source: Ravago et al. (2018a)
Notes:
(a) Net Generation is the amount of gross generation less the electrical energy consumed at the
generating station(s) for station service or auxiliaries. Note: Electricity required for pumping at
pumped-storage plants is regarded as electricity for station service and is deducted from gross
generation (EIA 2015)
(b) Net Consumption is the consumption of electricity computed as generation, plus imports, minus
exports, minus transmission and istribution losses (EIA 2015)
(c) Installed capacity
(d) Renewables share in electricity production or generation
(e) World Development Indicators
(f) In real prices constant at 2005 USD cents
(g) Constant 2005 USD prices and exchange rate
(h) Constant 2005 USD prices and exchange rate
(i) Transmission and Distribution Loss is Electric energy lost due to the transmission and distribution of
electricity. Much of the loss is thermal in nature (EIA, 2015).
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Industry Profile During COVID-19

Coal is typically characterized as a‘baseline’fuel because of its low fuel
cost, high plant cost, and high ramping inefficiencies. However, during the
lockdown period, coal has been serving as a marginal fuel, dropping from
56% to 48% of generation. Generation with natural gas decreased by 6%, as
shown in Figure 4.8_1, but its share of total generation increased from 23 to
27%. Other sources stayed at about the same percentages, with solar and
biomass generation increasing slightly, reflecting new generation capacity.
The reason for this paradoxical result lies in inflexibilities in legal rules and
contracts. Since renewables are assured“must-dispatch”status as per the
Renewable Energy Act (RA 9513), the system operator is required to accept
whatever is generated. And while generation by natural gas is usually
assumed to easily adjust to varying demands, what is not flexible is the
supply of gas arriving by pipeline. The take-or-pay bilateral contracts with
Meralco assure that minimum purchases of natural-gas generation reflect this
inflexibility in gas delivery (and the extremely limited gas storage capacities).
This leaves the burden of adjustment falling on coal plants, several which
have had to temporarily shut down production.
Figure 4.8_1. Generation Mix Before and After Enhanced Community Quarantine
Source: WESM IEMOP (2020).
Turning to the effect of the lockdown on electricity prices, average wholesale

rates on the spot market fell by 55% during the lockdown period (Figure
4.8_2). Moreover, while wholesale prices used to peak around 2:00 pm,
they now peak in the early evening, reflecting the shifting demand from
commercial and industrial to residential consumers. The typically higher
percentage of solar generation during the early afternoon hours also
contributed to this pattern.
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Energy
Figure 4.8_2. Average Supply and Total System Requirement (Energy + Reserve)
Source: WESM IEMOP (2020)
Pursuant to the Machiavellian credo to“never let a crisis go to waste,”some

observers have advocated government measures to accelerate the transition
away from coal towards renewable sources of generation (EcoBusiness 2020).
The implementing rules covering the Renewable Energy Act of 2008 specify
an“aspirational target”of 35% renewables by 2030, which will be subject to
regular review and assessment by the Department of Energy (DOE 2018).
The share of renewables in dependable capacity is already 31% (Table 4.8_2),

suggesting that the target of 35% would be achieved much earlier than in
2030. However, DOE rules specify that the renewable portfolio standard
(RPS) of 35% should be attained in terms of generation, not capacity (DOE
2017, 2018). This is somewhat more difficult since the share of renewable in
generation during 2018 was only 23.4%, as shown in Table 4.8_3.
Table 4.8_2. Total Installed and Dependable Capacity per Technology, in MW.
Installed Dependable
Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage
2017 Share 2018 Share 2017 Share 2018 Share
Coal 8,049 35 8,844 37 7,674 37 8,368 39
Oil based 4,154 18 4,292 18 3,287 16 2,995 14
Natural gas 3,447 15 3,453 14 3,291 16 3,286 15
Renewable Energy 7,080 31 7,226 30 6,263 31 6,592 31
Geothermal 1,916 8 1,944 8 1,752 9 1,770 8
Hydro 3,627 16 3,701 16 3,268 16 3,473 16
Biomass 224 1 258 1 160 1 182 1
Solar 886 4 896 4 700 3 740 3
Wind 427 2 427 2 383 2 427 2
Total 22,730 100 23,815 100 20,515 100 21,241 100
Source: DOE-EPIMB (2018)
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Table 4.8_3. Generation Mix, in GWh.

2017 Percentage Share 2018 Percentage Share
Coal 46,847 49.6 51,978 52.1
Oil based 3,787 4.0 3,192 3.2
Natural gas 20,547 21.8 21,350 21.4
Renewable Energy 23,189 24.6 23,345 23.4
Geothermal 10,270 10.9 10,420 10.4
Hydro 9,611 10.2 9,406 9.4
Biomass 1,013 1.1 1,101 1.1
Solar 1,201 1.3 1,255 1.3
Wind 1,094 1.2 1,174 1.2
Total 94,370 100 99,765 100
Source: DOE-EPIMB (2018)

Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding.
Despite the modestly higher gap to be filled, doing so does not make
subsidies necessary. The Lazard levelized costs of electricity for wind and
solar for the U.S. are already below those of coal and natural gas (e.g., Marachi
2020). Even though wind and photovoltaic power are intermittent resources,
the costs of intermittency are quite modest, given the abundant opportunities
for diversification, the falling costs of battery storage, and possibilities for
demand management (Heal 2017).
Efficient Transition to Clean Energy

Many“clean energy”and“sustainability”devotees decry the pre-lockdown
decline in the share of renewables and favor an accelerated transition to
renewable energy (Ahmed and Dalusong 2020; EcoBusiness 2020). However,
greater renewable mandates and subsidies would compromise the objectives
of affordability, reliability, and security as required by the Electric Power
Industry Reform Act of 2001 (EPIRA) and the Tax Reform Act of 2017 (RA 9136,
RA 10963). In fact, there may even be a potentially high excess burden cost
of renewable mandates and subsidies, as noted by Ravago and Roumasset
(2018) and Roumasset et al. (2018). Mandates and subsidies also put the
renewability advocates at loggerheads with the DOE’s declared“technology
neutral”policy whereby the generation mix should satisfy the criterion of
least cost (Visaya 2017).
Economics provides a clear resolution of this apparent impasse. DOE needs

only to interpret least cost to include the social cost of pollution. Given
the rapid reduction in the cost of renewable energy, especially solar, and
improvements in storage technology, the need is to facilitate an efficient
energy transition, not to force it prematurely with costly subsidies.
Projecting the most efficient—i.e., the least social-cost—energy transition

should take into account the declining costs of wind and solar power and
the low costs of managing intermittency at levels needed to meet the RPS
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Energy
for 2030 (Heal 2017). For the decisions of private investors to be consistent
with least social costs, taxes should reflect the marginal damage costs of
pollution, especially from generation with coal. The Philippines has included
coal and petroleum excise taxes as part of the 2017 tax reform (RA 10963).
The Renewable Energy (RE) Act of 2008 has put in place several programs
and policy instruments that aim to accelerate the development of renewable
energy (RA 9513). Replacing these with pollution taxes can harmonize the
quest for renewability with affordability and other objectives of EPIRA.
The social cost of pollution includes both the domestic cost from carbon
emissions and the costs of local pollutants (sulfur oxides, nitrous oxides, and
particulate matter) that impinge on health. The pollution cost of generation
by coal are more than four times that for Open Cycle Gas-turbine and 20
times that for Close Cycle Gas-turbine (Jandoc et al. 2018). These numbers
highlight the environmental benefits of transitioning away from coal towards
generation by natural gas, as the Malampaya gas fields are depleted and by
renewable sources.
Needs for the Future: Priority for Clean

Technology
The use of“clean”rather than“clean-up”or waste treatment technologies
is the very essence of the preventive and anticipatory approach to
environmental protection and sustainable development (Uriarte 1990).
Developing countries, like the Philippines, are in an excellent position to
benefit from clean technologies since, in many cases, investments have not
yet been made in conventional technologies, making it possible to leapfrog
toward clean technologies. Clean technologies can enhance the country’s
infrastructure, support underserved areas that lack access to electricity, clean
water and sanitation, and create employment.
The water and energy sectors are two areas where there is ample scope
for the application of clean technologies. Clean water and sanitation are
essential for a healthy community. Clean technologies can improve the
delivery of affordable clean water, minimize or prevent the production of
wastewater effluents, and reduce the cost of water and wastewater treatment
(Uriarte 2000). In the light of the fact that the Philippines is dependent on
imported fuel for its energy needs and the energy sector is among the major
contributors to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, there is more
than ample justification to give clean energy technologies the highest priority.
Many clean technologies have been developed globally, but most are
initially located in industrialized countries. Accordingly, technology
transfer is an essential part of the process to meet the future technology
needs of developing countries. Traditionally, technology transfer occurs
through foreign direct investments, imports, and licensing arrangements.
But technology transfer involves not just the importation of hardware
and software but, more importantly, it requires sharing of knowledge and
adapting technologies to meet local conditions (UN 2011).
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Clean Energy Technologies to Meet Future

Needs
Sectors and industries have relied on several technologies to ensure
access, production, and storage of energy. Among the most researched and
developed technologies are biofuels, solar, and wind energy technologies and
systems. Clean energy sources from the oceans have also been explored with
the initial focus on ocean waves. In addition to these sources, technologies
have been, and are being, developed to convert municipal solid waste into
various types of solid, liquid, and gaseous fuels.
The least explored technology in the energy sector is nuclear power. Despite
being an attractive and reliable source of energy, there are concerns regarding
its use in tectonically active regions such as the Philippines as nuclear
accidents prompted by earthquakes, volcanic activity, and other hazards
posed severe health and environmental effects. In this regard, President
Duterte issued Executive Order No. 116 on 24 July 2020“Directing a Study
for the Adoption of a National Position on a Nuclear Energy Program,
Constituting a Nuclear Energy Program Inter-Agency Committee, and for
Other Purposes”in recognition of an“imperative need to revisit the country’s
policy on nuclear energy and to determine its feasibility as a long term option
for power generation.”
There are now 445 nuclear reactors in 30 countries that are used for power
generation. Another 57 are under construction. However, global capacity in
nuclear power has been decreasing due to changes in government policies
and safety concerns resulting from recent events like the nuclear accident in
the Fukushima Daiichi power plant in Fukushima, Japan (NAST PHL 2019).
Several generations of nuclear reactors for power stations have been

developed over the years. There are now four generations of nuclear reactors
that vary by their fuel (uranium or thorium), moderator (graphite or heavy
water) and coolant (either gas or liquid). Safety and security of nuclear
reactors are of prime consideration. Competent national authorities are
expected to regulate the safety and security of the design of nuclear power
plants including the disposal of the radioactive wastes (POST 2014).
The need to reduce inefficiency and ineffectiveness in the distribution and use
of energy has led to newer and more advanced technologies such as smart
energy systems, microgrids, blockchain, and internet of things (IoT). The
management of power supply to create more resilient energy infrastructure
and cost-savings are made possible by energy storage technologies such as
batteries, thermal, mechanical storage, hydrogen, and pumped hydropower
(Figure 4.8_3).
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Energy
Detailed Technologies
solar energy conversion technologies

large-scale photovoltaic power grid integration and operation technologies
closed-loop control of the power of large photovoltaic power stations
Solar energy
rolling optimization of day-ahead and intraday scheduling of high penetration
technologies and
photovoltaic power grids
systems
hierarchical photovoltaic power generation control system
automatic and smooth regulation of the active and reactive output of
photovoltaic power generation
removal of momentary output fluctuations
using computational fluid dynamics to develop simulators for wind farm
Wind energy applications
technologies and utilizing controllable grid interface test system
systems
analyzing offshore wild energy to illuminate industry needs, opportunities, and
anticipated impacts in the renewable power industry
Clean energy from wave energy devices
ocean waves
batteries: lithium ion, redox flow, vanadium redox flow, nickel-cadmium, sodium-
sulfur, zinc-bromine flow batteries, electrochemical capacitors (ESA 2020)
thermal
Energy storage mechanical storage
hydrogen
pumped hydropower
Clean Energy Technology
smart devices
smart grid distribution of renewable energy
Smart energy systems
smart energy monitoring and network
nano engineering of highly efficient conductors and superconductors (Pernick
2020)
real-time remote water level or soil-moisture monitoring device
smart water quantity meter
smart water quality meter
Microgrids
internet of things
sanitation and sewerage management system technology
periodic and iterative assessment of the water quality and pollution technology
Energy blockchain energy blockchain
and IoT internet of things (IoT)
refuse-derived fuel systems
pyrolysis to convert municipal solid wastes (MSW) to solid, liquid, or gaseous
fuels
trash-to-gasoline processes
non-catalytic processes to covert MSW to synthetic hydrocarbon crude oil
Energy from wastes
biomass liquefaction or reductive formylation to convert MSW to oil-like
substance
indirect liquefaction through thermal gasification followed by liqued fuel
synthesis
fluidized bed waste gasification
ash-melting systems
Third generation
biofuels
Figure 4.8_3. Clean Energy Technology

Sources: Uriarte (2008, 2010, 2017), Liu (2015), Clean Energy BC (2015), Lund et al. (2017), Ellsmoor (2018),
WETO (2018)
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The Future of Energy in the Philippines

Total Final Energy Consumption
In 2016, the country’s total final energy consumption reached 33.1 million
tons of oil equivalent (MTOE), which is up by 8.4% from 30.5 MTOE in 2015.
The transport sector accounted for more than one-third of the total energy
consumption (Figure 4.8_4).
Figure 4.8_4. Total Final Energy Consumption by Sector (2016), Percentage Shares
Source: DOE (2019)
Petroleum products garnered the bulk of the country’s total final energy
consumption, with a 49.3% share (Figure 4.8_5).
Figure 4.8_5. Total Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Shares (2016)

Source: DOE (2019)
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Energy
Total Primary Energy Supply
For 2016, the country’s total primary energy supply (TPES) reached 53.2
MTOE, 3.7% higher from its 2015 level of 51.3 MTOE. Indigenous energy
resources also increased from 26.9 MTOE in 2015 to 29.4 MTOE in 2016. Oil
and coal remain to have the biggest cumulative share at 34.8% and 21.9
percent, respectively (Figure 4.8_6).
Figure 4.8_6. Total Final Energy Consumption by Sector (2016), Percentage Shares
Source: DOE (2019)
Projected Total Final Energy Consumption
The country’s total final energy consumption (TFEC) is expected to increase

at an average rate of 4.3% annually, from 33.1 MTOE in 2016 to 91.0 MTOE
by 2040 (Figure 4.8_7). The transport sector will continue to take the biggest
share, with a 38.2% average across the planning period (DOE 2019).
Figure 4.8_8 indicates that as the transport sector continues to be the biggest
energy consumer among different sectors, petroleum products will continue
to account for the biggest bulk of the TFEC. Despite volatility in oil prices,
demand for petroleum products will increase by 4.5% per year (DOE 2019).
As for electricity, the Philippines has an existing dependable capacity of

17,925 MW. The country’s demand for electricity will increase to 30,189 MW
by 2030 (Saulon 2016). This translates to almost 1,100 MW per year. Currently,
the country has a number of projects committed to delivering 6.178 MW.
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Figure 4.8_7. Total Final Energy Consumption, by Sector (2000–2040)

Source: DOE (2019)
Note: Energy consumption expressed in terms of million tons of oil equivalent (MTOE)
Figure 4.8_8. Total Final Energy Consumption, by Fuel (2000–2040)

Source: DOE (2019)
Note: Energy consumption expressed in terms of million tons of oil equivalent (MTOE)
Projected Total Primary Energy Supply
The country’s total primary enery supply (TPES) will grow at an average
rate of 4.4%, reaching 148.1 MTOE in 2040 under business as usual scenario.
Under this scenario, oil and coal will still dominate the supply mix, which will
account for 67.1% of the TPES. Meanwhile, under a clean energy scenario,
growth will be slightly slower at 4%, reaching 137.8 MTOE. Aggregate
contribution of oil and coal will also be slightly lower at 60.4%. Moreover,
share of RE sources will grow from 19.7 MTOE in 2016 to 29.2 MTOE by 2040.
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Current Issues faced by the Energy Sector

1. Philippines’ energy self-sufficiency is only at 53.5 percent, which
fell short of the 60% target in 2015. Out of the 50.4 MTOE energy
supply of the country, local energy is only comprised of 26.9 MTOE.
2. Power generation has increased, but it is still insufficient to meet

growing demand which worsened feedstock security concerns.
Installed capacity grew by 4.6% from 17,944 MW in 2014 to 18,765
MW in 2016. As for renewable energy, only a total of 7,013.9 MW of
renewable energy has been installed out of the potential 14,499.8
MW. Hydropower plants comprise 19.2% of the country’s installed
RE capacity, but hot or dry weather conditions affected the reliability
and adequacy of energy supply. Natural gas, on the other hand,
powers 23% of the Luzon dependable capacity, however depletion
of the gas field, expiration of existing contracts, and disputes in
the West Philippine Sea threaten energy security. In fact, as of this
writing, Shell already ceased operation in this gas field. Lastly,
private sector continue to invest in coal-fired power plants due to
faster development and operation in response to the country’s
requirements. However, this energy source is also threatened as
Indonesia, which supplies 70% of the Philippines’coal import
needs, placed a moratorium on coal shipments due to the risk of
kidnappings and piracy in the West Philippine Sea.
3. Development of transmission network and distribution facilities

was hampered by issues of right-of-way, security, and resilience
to natural calamities. Lack of interconnection between Luzon,
Visayas, and Mindanao deters the possibility of using surplus from
one grid to another, and etc.
4. Gaps in electricity access, especially in the rural and off-

grid areas, still remain despite considerable effort to pursue
nationwide distribution. Household electrification level reached
89.61% (20.36 million out of 22.72 million) in July 2016. Much is still
needed to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 7 of universal
energy access by 2030.
5. More work is needed to optimize the benefits of demand-side

management.
6. Indigenous supply of biofuel is still way below the increasing

blending requirements (i.e., RA 9367) of the local fuel industry.
7. The Philippines’electricity rates remain amongst the highest in

Asia. This is due to a lack of state subsidy for privately generated,
transmitted, and distributed power supplied. Feed-in-tariff,
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universal charges, VAT, and system losses are also passed to the
consumers. Other problems include minimal competition and
alleged market manipulation. Reducing electricity cost is vital,
but a balance between rates, environmental implications, service
reliability should be achieved.
The foresight towards 2050 is the improved well-being of the Filipinos.

Efficient transition to clean energy should be accompanied by investment
coordination in generation, transmission, and distribution; government
investment in the transmission highway; regulatory oversight coordination
in support of a competitive market; reconciling two seemingly contradicting
instruments, the EPIRA and RE laws; reform of the electric cooperatives; and
investment in R&D (Ravago et al. 2018a, 2018b).
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SECTION 4.9
WATER
The Philippines has an annual rainfall of 2,500 mm and is endowed with vast
water resources with a total area of 2,257,499 sq km consisting of marine (bays),
inland waters (rivers and lakes), and groundwater. Groundwater reservoirs have
an estimated storage capacity of 251 billion cu m and a dependable supply of
126 billion cu m per year (DENR 2016). The major river basins of the country are
in critical condition that endanger surface water potential as reflected in the
2010 land use and land cover map of the Philippines (Cruz 2018). Barely 25% of
the total area of these basins are covered with forest vegetation with six river
basins having less than 10% forest cover. Furthermore, only about 27% of the
688 classified water bodies in the country have potable water. Many of the major
rivers and lakes are heavily polluted. For example, out of the 40 water bodies
monitored as sources of drinking water supply, only 28% conform to the criterion
for total suspended solids (DENR-EMB 2014).
Water Uses
According to National Water Resources Board (NWRB), the total water permits
granted in 2010 was for 86 billion cu m annually (approximately 60% of the
country’s water availability), consisting of 78% for irrigation water, 8% for
domestic water supply and the rest for industrial, commercial, and other
uses. Comparative trend analysis across the three sectors indicates that both
the domestic and industrial sectors have increasing water demand while that
of agriculture is declining (NWRB 2016).
Regional Water Demand and Supply

Water scarcity in the Philippines is real. Past studies have shown that water
shortage in the country is due to the following (Rola et al. 2018):
• population increase
• urbanization
• economic growth and weak water governance characterized by
fragmented and multiple institutional arrangements to manage
water resources
• lack of effective policy instruments
• weak enforcement of environmental protection policies
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Climate change is also expected to alter rainfall patterns that will affect
stream flow, dam operation, water allocation, domestic water supply,
irrigation, hydropower generation, depth and recharge of aquifers, water
quality, watersheds, and fisheries (Lasco 2012).
The only available master plan showed that by 2025 water resources regions
II, III, IV, and VII will not be able to meet the projected demand (Figure 4.9_1)
(JICA and NWRB 1998). However, the 2016 NWRB surface water data already
showed that in five (Regions I, II, III, IV, and VII) of the 12 water resources
regions in the country, demand has surpassed the supply (Pulhin et al. 2018).
A negative figure is also recorded for the whole country.
Figure 4.9_1. Projected Regional Supply and Demand Situation in Thousand cu m

(2005-2025)
Source: JICA and NWRB (1998)
Global Outlook for Water Use Towards

2050
Ertug and Hoekstra (2014) identified the drivers that will influence the level of
water consumption and pollution as follows:
• Global water footprints
• Population growth
• Economic growth
• Production and trade patterns
• Consumption patterns (dietary change, bioenergy use)
• Technological developments
Changes in consumption pattern will reduce water footprints; intensive

biofuel use will increase water use; and dietary preferences will affect water
demand. Population growth will remain the major driver of change in water
use. Thus, policy reforms will be needed towards a more sustainable water
use, despite population growth.
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Water

Foresight on Water
Given the growing needs for water resources and the technologies at hand,
it is important to be cognizant of water-related future scenarios (events or
conditions) and current status that need inputs based on science, technology,
and innovation (STI) or require modification or interventions from an STI
framework.
Domestic Water Supply

About 90% of the country’s population source water from groundwater
and the rest from surface water in rivers or lakes, such that when drawn
in large amounts, water becomes a finite, limited resource. Groundwater
is susceptible to contamination. On the other hand, surface water sources
from rivers or lakes are more sustainable since they are replenished annually
during the wet months. Thus, the need to build water impoundments from
properly designed large-scale or major reservoirs to small-scale water
cisterns to collect rainwater in households. The groundwater aquifer can
also serve as a water reservoir by installing infiltration galleries at strategic
recharge areas. Natural lakes, like Laguna de Bay, can also serve as reservoirs.
Finally, there could be large-scale inter-basin water transfers for domestic
water supply purposes. For instance, the Pampanga River has been suggested
as an alternative water source for Metro Manila (Tabios G 2019), which can be
conveyed by a 40-km aqueduct, from Calumpit, Bulacan to Quezon City.
Irrigation Water Delivery

The bulk of irrigation water is utilized by 1.4 million ha of rice farms. A large
portion of the irrigation water delivery is serviced by the so-called national
irrigation systems built and maintained by the national government. In Asia,
the estimate of the water requirement for rice production is 15,000 to 31,500
cu m per ha per year, amounting to 21 to 44 billion cu m per year for 1.4
million ha of irrigated rice. In this case, even at the high side, over 50% (i.e.,
relative difference of 67 and 44 billion cu m annually equivalent 23 billion
cu m) of irrigation water is wasted which could have supplied three or more
times the annual domestic water supply needs of the country. To reduce this
wastage, developments in precision agriculture use an array of sensors to
monitor soil moisture in order to determine volume and timing of the delivery
of irrigation water. Remote sensing using satellites can provide real-time data,
even at 15-minute intervals, on water level or soil-moisture, and can be used
in tandem with in-situ monitoring devices.
Floods and Flood Risk

The meteorologic factors that generate major floods in the Philippines are
the interplay of typhoons, monsoons, hovering intertropical convergence
zones, and thunderstorms. The islands are of volcanic origin, and our rivers
have steep slopes with headwaters (i.e., at the ridge) that are several hundred
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meters high and run quickly to the sea. Major cities are also built in the
deltas or alluvial fans of these rivers. Flooding in urban settings has other
dimensions besides the meteorological and hydrological such as economic,
social, or human factors. For instance, in Marikina River, several flood
mitigation plans have been pushed in the last decades, such as the Mangahan
Floodway with Paranaque Spillway to temporarily store water in Laguna de
Bay and alleviate flooding along the downstream Pasig River where major
cities of Makati, San Juan, and Old Manila including Malacañang Palace can
be spared during the passage of the storm or typhoon. After the storm passes,
the floodwaters are to be evacuated from the lake to Manila Bay through the
Paranaque Spillway, but the spillway was never built.
A small-scale flood reduction scheme is rain harvesting, so storm rainfall can

be stored in household cisterns or storage tanks instead of flowing directly
into the streets. However, a reasonably sized cistern can only accommodate
so much rain. Perhaps the rest of the storm rainfall (once the storage tanks
are full) can be directed to a constructed infiltration gallery built around the
house to deep percolate into the ground (subsurface).
Water Quality Maintenance and Pollution

Control
With rapid urbanization and industrialization compounded by inadequate
local or national sewerage and sanitation facilities, there is massive pollution
in most of our water bodies covering rivers, lakes, and estuaries. In the
environmental monitoring report of the World Bank (2007), the biggest
source of pollution is domestic waste, which accounts for almost 48% of the
water pollution, followed by agricultural waste (37%) and industrial waste
(15%). STI can promote holistic planning and management of sanitation
and sewerage systems, including waste treatment, which requires a periodic
and iterative assessment of the water quality and volume, including types of
pollutants.
Water Governance as a Science,

Technology, and Innovation Concern
It is said that, in the Philippines, the water crisis is a crisis in water governance
(Rola et al. 2015a, 2015b). A major problem is the overlapping and
fragmentary jurisdiction and authority in the water resources management
framework in the Philippines. Whatever governance structure is adopted, STI
can assist in the adoption and employment of a framework for sustainability,
which utilizes scientific tools (physical, social, economic, behavioral sciences)
and engages stakeholders (academics, professionals, government, civil
society) to solve problems through an iterative process of collaborative
learning, research, and consensus-building (Tabios 2020).
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Water
Clean Water Technologies to Meet Future

Needs
Finally, it will be worthwhile to enumerate here available clean water
technologies to augment domestic water supply, maintain water quality, and
control pollution (Figure 4.9_2).
Detailed Technologies
Small-scale water cisterns to cellect rainwater in households
Rainwater Water reservoir through groundwater aquafer with infiltration galleries at strategic
Harvesting recharge areas
Infiltration gallery built around the house to deep percolate into the ground (subsurface)
to minimize flood risk in case storage tanks for rainfall are full
Membranes with high chemical stability for wastewater recovery
Membrane
Membranes and modules with antifouling properties
Technology
Large membrane surfaces with homogeneous characteristics
Seawater
Seawater Reverse Osmosis integrated with pressure retrarded osmosis
desalination with
and forward osmosis
electricity
Fluidized bed algae-based wastewater treatment system
Algae-based
Clean Water Technology
wastewater Fixed-bed algae-based wastewater treatment system

treatment
Suspended algae-based wastewater treatment system
Biological assimilation through constructed wetlands for phosphoroous and nitrogen
Nutrient recovery removal from wastewater
from wastewater
Nutrients recovery by microalgae-based processes
Real-time remote water level or soil-moisture monitoring device
Smart water quantity meter
Smart water Smart water quality meter

monitoring Internet of Things
Sanitation and sewerage management system technology
Periodic and iterative assessment of the water quality and pollution technology
Phytoextraction or phytoaccumulation
Phytovolatilization
Constructed
wetlands and Phytostabilization or phytosequestration
phytoremediation
Phytodegradation
Phytofiltration or Rhizofiltration or rhizodegradation
Figure 4.9_2. Clean Water Technologies for Future Needs

Source: Prasad et al. (2015), Sengupta et al. (2015), Zion et al. (2015), Fernandez et al. (2018), Jha et al.
(2019), Uriarte 2018 (2019), Wollman et al. (2019), Schunke et al. (2020)Uriarte 2018 (2019), Wollman
et al. (2019), Schunke et al. (2020)
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2Rainwater harvesting. Rainwater harvesting is a key intervention measure in

adaptation and reducing vulnerabilities (Uriarte 2018). Rainwater harvesting
has been a neglected opportunity in water resource management, and is an
effective coping strategy in variable rainfall areas. It can enhance ecosystem
productivity and sustainability by augmenting water supply for agricultural,
domestic, and industrial use.
Membrane technology. Membrane processes like microfiltration,

ultrafiltration, nanofiltration, and reverse osmosis could be a solution for
advanced physical treatment of water and its desalination for drinking
purposes as well as for agro-industrial uses. The advantages of membrane
technology include its modular nature, allowing application at large or small
scale, better water quality, a relatively small carbon footprint, and in some
cases, lower energy usage.
Seawater desalination with electricity production. Improvements in

Reverse Osmosis (RO) technology have led to seawater RO (SWRO) becoming
the dominant form of large-scale desalination around the world. However,
the specific energy consumption of SWRO remains substantially higher
than that for surface water treatment. The high-pressure pumping required
to overcome the osmotic pressure in saline feedwater results in a saline
concentrate stream, which is highly pressurized. Energy recovery devices
(ERDs) are commonly used to harness this hydraulic energy. Piston-driven
ERDs follow a similar process of hydraulic energy exchange, with the transfer
of energy between concentrate and feed occurring inside hydraulic cylinders.
Algae-based wastewater treatment. The most efficient approach to

reduce the pollution of water resources with nitrates, phosphates, and
high organic loads is to remove these components at the point of origin,
i.e., at the processing sites. However, conventional biological wastewater
treatment systems are often unable to fulfill this task because the pH values,
high organics, or temperatures are often non-compatible to microbiological
physiology. On the other hand, microalgae, conventional and extremophilic,
when used in cleaning waste water can play an important role in a circular
bioeconomy by providing high-quality products, such as proteins, lipids, and
colorants.
Smart water monitoring. Smart Water Monitoring System for real-time water
quality and usage monitoring consists of a Smart Water Quantity Meter and
a Smart Water Quality Water. The former is to ensure water conservation by
monitoring the amount of water consumed by a household and notifying the
same to the consumer and the authority while the latter checks the purity of
potable water that the consumer receives, by measuring pH, temperature,
turbidity, dissolved oxygen, and conductivity using remote sensing
technology. Violations in either the usage limit or changes in water quality
are immediately notified to the consumer and authority, and an alert signal is
generated by the system.
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Water
Constructed wetlands and phytoremediation. Constructed wetlands have

a great potential for efficient and effective removal of organic contents and
nutrients from wastewater effluents. In the US, commonly used hydrophytes
in the constructed wetland are Phalaris arundinacea, Schoenoplectus
tabernaemontani, Cyperus alternifolius, Zizania palustris, Juncus effusus, etc.
The main biological processes occurring in wetlands that result in removal
of pollutants and nutrients are photosynthesis, respiration, fermentation,
nitrification, de-nitrification, and phosphorus removal (Uriarte 2019). On
the other hand, phytoremediation is a plant-based approach that takes
advantage of the ability of plants to concentrate elements and compounds
from the environment and to metabolize various molecules in their tissues.
The main physiological steps in phytoremediation include stimulation
of microorganism-based transformation by plant exudates; slowing of
contaminant transport from the vegetated zone due to adsorption, and
increased evapotranspiration; and plant uptake, followed by metabolism or
accumulation (Uriarte 2018).
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SECTION 4.10
ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE
This section focuses on the projected effects of climate change and other
environmental hazards on the possible uses of the environment/natural
resources. The descriptions herein are built on the historical and recent trends
of natural resources and their uses at the national, and global levels that
are covered in Section 1.5.1 and Section 2.2, respectively. Current practices,
technologies and policies related to natural resources management and
utilization are described and assessed as to their sufficiency to achieve the
targets desired for the natural resources sector. The results of this assessment
could be used as bases to determine what new or additional practices,
technologies and policies may be needed to satisfactorily achieve sustainability,
resilience and competitiveness on or before 2050.
Climate Change
It is estimated that the planet has warmed by about 1.0°C above pre-
industrial levels (IPCC 2018). It is likely that the average temperature will
increase by 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052. The impacts of global warming
will be felt by natural and human systems, exacerbating existing risks to
livelihoods, biodiversity, human and ecosystem health, infrastructure, and
food systems (IPCC 2019a). In addition, warming of the oceans will affect
coastal ecosystems through intensified marine heatwaves, acidification, loss
of oxygen, salinity, intrusion, and sea level rise (IPCC 2019b).
Future climate projections for the Philippines are consistent with these
global projections. Relative to air temperatures in 1970-2000, the country’s
air temperature is expected to rise by as much as 4°C by the year 2100 (Figure
4.10_1). Yet even as early as mid century, in 2050, air temperature will be
between 1°C to 2°C hotter than the same baseline. Rainfall amount and
seasonality is less homogenous for the country, with some parts becoming
wetter and others becoming drier (Figure 4.10_2). Future trends on tropical
cyclones are more uncertain, with models suggesting reduced frequency but
higher intensity (DOST-PAGASA 2018).
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Environment and Climate Change
Figure 4.10_1 Projected Air Temperatures for the Philippines with Climate Change
Note: RCP - Representative Concentration Pathway
Figure 4.10_2. Projected Seasonal Change in Rainfall in the Philippines for the Mid-21st
Century (2036-2065) Relative to the Baseline Period of 1971-2000.
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Other Environmental Hazards

The Philippines is a disaster-prone country and periodically suffers from
deadly typhoons, floods, earthquakes, volcano eruptions and other natural
disasters. It was ranked third in terms of disaster risk index in 2018. Due to
its geographical context, the highest risks posed to the country are those
of earthquakes reported with 10 risk index (RI) points and tropical cyclones
of 9.5 RI. These are followed by tsunamis with RI of 9.3, flood RI of 7.2, and
drought RI of 4 (WEF 2018).
The Philippine Statistics Authority’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDG)

watch reported that the number of deaths attributed to disasters per 100,000
population in 2016 escalated from 0.08 to 0.24 within the two-year study
period (PSA 2020d). In addition, natural disasters-caused incidents for a 10-
year period has been reported to reach an average of 201 occurrences in the
country (PSA 2014). These catastrophic events not only caused environmental
damages but also continuously slowed down national economic growth as
finances were mobilized for disaster recovery and rehabilitation. An average
annual amount of 27.9 billion pesos was spent in the past years to fund
recovery and rehabilitation from extreme natural events (PSA 2014).
In response the government developed the national disaster risk reduction

(DRR) strategy following the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction
2015-2030. This is also consistent with Goal 13 of the UN SDGs, which
prompts global and local actions to combat climate change and its impacts
by strengthening resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards
and natural disasters in all countries (UN 2019). Science, Technology, and
Innovation (STI) are needed in developing a robust response agenda for DRR
(Figure 4.10_3). The contributions of STI in disaster risk reduction and climate
change adaptation for better resilience and competitiveness need not be
overemphasized.
In 2017, the Department of Science and Technology developed STI-based

mitigation strategies against disaster and climate change consisting of various
technologies intended to improve the existing mitigation strategies and
technologies of the country such as:
• Radar Stations
• Flood Forecasting and Warning System
• Improvement of Volcano and Earthquake Monitoring Systems
• Deployment of Early Warning Systems in Disaster-Prone Areas
• Real-Time Radiation Monitoring System
In addition, the e-ASIA Joint Research Program consisting of the Development

of Information Gathering and Utilization Systems Using Small Unmanned
Airborne Vehicles (UAVs) for Disaster Risk Assessment, Monitoring, and
Response for observation and monitoring systems was also launched.
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Likewise, STI-based hazard and risk assessment tools are being used such as:
• Earthquake and Volcanic Hazard Mapping

• Specific Earthquake Ground-Motion to Help Enhance the Seismic
Resiliency of Residential and Medium-to High Rise Buildings
• Improved Hydro-Meteorological Modules for Rapid Earthquake
Damage Assessment System
• Hazard and Risk Assessment Tool for Mainstreaming DRR in Local
Development Planning and the Phil-Light Detection and Ranging
Technology Program
The disaster knowledge diffusion is promoted through the following:
• Hazard and Risk Information Through Web Applications

• Hydro-Met Information, Risk Assessment, and Inter-Linkages of
Advisories
• Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services
Administration Unified Meteorological Information System
• Development of Web-based Southeast Asia Climate Diagnostics and
Monitoring
Terrestrial Ecosystems Use

In 1961, the number of people per sq km in the Philippines was just below
100 per sq km and increased to more than 350 per sq km in 2018 (World Bank
2020c). This is way above the global average of 59 per sq km. By virtue of the
projected increase in the country’s population in the next two decades, the
population density per sq km is expected to put more pressure on our land
resources. Urban areas like Metro Manila will expand up to the 2050s giving
rise to natural habitat fragmentation (NEDA 2018).
Assuming that there will be no significant change in the legal framework for
land use planning, development, and governance, the pressure on agriculture
from the likely expansion of urban and infrastructure development could
also increase. This in turn could add to the pressure of agriculture on forests
and other natural ecosystems that will likely also increase the demand for
food, fiber, and energy. Greater land degradation due to inefficient land use
allocation and planning, unregulated land conversion, and climate change is
likely, and could further compound the pressure on land availability and the
integrity of natural ecosystems and prime agricultural land. Extreme rainfall
events, floods, storm surges, prolonged droughts, and sea-level rise are also
likely to worsen and could exacerbate ongoing land degradation processes in
many areas of the country.
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Online Real-Time Watershed/Ecosystem Information System
Land Use/Habitat Change and Fragmentation Models
Animal Camera Trapping

Long-term Wireless
Species Distribution Models Watershed/
Ecosystem
Cyber Tracker (Radio-Frequency Identification and systems) Monitoring Network
Electronic Diaries
CCA/DRR
Personal Digital Assistants (cellular phones and tablets)
Evapotranspiration/Trees Water Uptake Sensors
Soil Moisture and Groundwater Monitoring Sensors
Streamflow and Microclimate Monitoring Sensors

Integrated Land Use
Water Quality Monitoring Sensors Planning
IoT for Biodiversity Monitoring
Doppler Radar
Climate
Remote Sensing and GIS-aided Precision Tools
Forecasting
Online Real-Time Climate Information System and Information
Tools
Drones and AUVs
Long-term Coastal
and Marine Nano Satellite Imagery
Ecosystem
Monitoring 3D Mapping and Landform Modeling Tools
Biotechnology and Nano Technology
Computerization and big data analytics
Autonomous (unmanned) underwater research vehicles
Subsea engineering and technology
Figure 4.10_3. Summary of Science, Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Use,
Climate Change Action and Disaster Risk Reduction for Terrestrial, and
Coastal and Marine Ecosystems.
Note: CCA/DRR - Climate Change Action and Disaster Risk Reduction
Forests/Watersheds. The country’s forest cover has dipped from a high of

10.9 M ha in 1970 to a low of 5.4 M ha in 2000 but, by 2005, forest cover started
to increase though inconsistently until 2015 (see Section 1.5.1). This is largely
due to the National Greening Program (NGP), logging restrictions, and forest
protection programs. However, the increase in forest cover is hampered
by the uneven success of these initiatives. Not all NGP areas have been
successful, and there are areas where the continued loss of forest cover has
negated gains in other areas (Perez et al. 2020). The increase of forest cover
in our country could be accelerated if the implementation of these various
government programs is strengthened through S&T and by the removal of
policy barriers to private sector investment in forest plantation development.
Watersheds are of critical importance for purposes of protecting vital sources

of water supply for irrigation, domestic and other uses, and biodiversity
conservation (please see Section 1.5.1). Land use and land cover change
is considered the most influential driver of watershed degradation in the
country. The many laws and regulations (Presidential Decrees no. 112, 1413
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and 2036, Proclamations no. 548, 505, 599, 573, 739 and 1111) to protect
the country’s watersheds notwithstanding, many watersheds have been
degraded due to expansion of agriculture that lead to reduction of forest
cover.
Thus, many of our watersheds continue to lose forest cover even though
some watersheds had forest cover gains. This trend could persist into the
coming decades if the current weaknesses in the enforcement of relevant
laws and regulations, land use planning and development, governance, and
science and policy interface are not addressed.
Agricultural Lands/Ecosystems. Agricultural areas are likely to expand to

meet the increase in the demands for food, fiber, energy, and other products
as the population grows. Expansion of agricultural areas will most likely cause
further encroachment into forests and other natural ecosystems, and increase
the use of marginal lands (i.e., grasslands, brushlands, and open areas) as can
be inferred from the current trends of land use change in priority watersheds
in the country. Urban expansion especially in Metro Manila and other major
urban centers are likely to accelerate in the next two or more decades. In
Metro Manila, the urban areas are projected to double in the 2050s (NEDA
2018) with expansion likely moving towards agricultural areas and natural
ecosystems. This can escalate the already serious problems of natural habitat
fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services, soil and water
degradation, and mounting disaster and public health risks associated
with climate change (see Section 1.6 and Section 2.2). The productivity of
agricultural lands is also likely to decrease further due to water scarcity and
prolonged dry periods, as well as from excessive soil loss due to climate
change.
Soil degradation in the Philippines is intricately tied to land use and land use
practices (see Section 1.6 and 2.2). Key soil problems in the country including
the loss of soil organic carbon, acidity, nutrient loss, soil biodiversity loss,
compaction and soil sealing are likely to worsen in the next decades unless
weaknesses in land use management as discussed in the section above will
be significantly resolved.
Unregulated land use change, expansion of agriculture in hilly lands and

forest lands, expansion of infrastructure and urban development into
agricultural lands, excessive cultivation and use of inorganic farm inputs,
and overgrazing need to be addressed. Landscape-based land use planning,
strict enforcement of land development controls and regulations, practice
of sustainable agriculture and sustainable forest management will be
imperative in promoting the sustainability of soil resources in the country
and minimizing the adverse socioeconomic, environmental, and ecological
impacts of soil degradation.
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The Philippines, which is part of the Western Equatorial Pacific (WEP) region,
is projected to experience locally prolonged drought and intense episodic
rainfall with an increase in variability. The average percentage change in
seasonal mean precipitation may reach 30% to 40%. Storms will become
more intense, but the frequency will either decrease or remain unchanged
(Anderson and Bausch 2006).
Significant increases in sea surface temperature (SST) (mean ocean surface

change of up to 0.9–1.75°C under a high emission scenario) are expected.
Global sea level rise (SLR) is projected at 4–12 cm per decade with the WEP
region likely experiencing the higher of these global estimates. Global ocean
pH is projected to decrease by 0.13 units by 2050.
The above impacts are likely to add pressure on top of the many
anthropogenic pressures already bearing on marine ecosystems. Although
the Philippines’high biodiversity can help reduce overall vulnerability,
urgent actions are needed to build marine resiliency. Prolonged warming
could disrupt reproduction cycles of target species. Recruitment failures
for the less mobile species are also likely. A study of waters surrounding the
Philippines mostly show a decrease of 6%–50% with the southern part being
more drastically affected. Only the areas that are known to be upwelling
sites seem to fare well such as the area off the Bicol shelf or the sub-surface
upwelling site west of Luzon. An analysis of Philippine historical data showed
that previous episodic warming has been observed to be more severe for the
waters facing the Pacific, the north-northwest Philippines and the Kalayaan
Island Group (KIG). These episodes caused the massive coral bleaching event
documented in 1998.
Extreme rainfall due to storm events over a denuded watershed can

lead to sedimentation, one of the highest stressors to the marine coastal
environment. Persistent seagrass burial due to sedimentation of two cm to
19.5 cm has been seen to result in 50% shoot mortality and most likely lead to
regression and complete destruction of the seagrass meadow.
The western boundary of the Pacific Ocean is one of the regions already
experiencing relatively higher SLR than the global average. This makes the
Philippines vulnerable to the combined hazards of SLR and storm surge. In
the Western Pacific and Southeast Asian region, rates of SLR are about three
to four times higher than the global mean, reaching around 12 cm per decade.
This could lead to a 10%–15% mangrove loss globally (Alongi 2008).
The main effect is on the establishment of mangrove propagules and seedling

growth. Seedlings in general have been found to thrive better in lower saline
environments (3–17 psu) during their first four to five months. Additionally,
most of the country’s highly populated cities and much of the economic
productivity is located near the coast. Fishing communities of Cotabato City
and the province of Bulacan are at highest risk since a significant portion of
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the coastal and low-land areas are shown to be annually flooded. The other
areas of concern are the coastal municipalities and small low-lying islands of
Sulu and Tawi-Tawi (BARMM), Camarines Sur (V), Negros Occidental and Iloilo
(VI), Quezon (IV-A), and Pangasinan (I).
Global ocean acidification is projected to cause a decrease of pH by 0.13 units

by 2030 and up to 0.3 units by 2100. This increase in bicarbonates results in a
faster dissolution rate of calcified structures like shells and coral reefs. At the
same time increase in bicarbonates lowers carbonate ion concentrations and
makes it difficult for calcifying invertebrates to form hard structures.
There are studies however that show a positive increase in productivity for
ocean species that can make use of bicarbonates in photosynthesis (e.g.,
seagrass) and those that do not form hard structures (e.g., jellyfish). Changes
in the productivity of ocean species could impact on the major source of
animal protein for many adult Filipinos that on the average require between
49g–57g per day. Fisheries and associated livelihoods provide income to more
than 30 million Filipinos, who are highly vulnerable to the projected changes
in climate and its impacts on the condition of marine ecosystems (Figure
4.10_4). The impacts are likely to be compounded by the prevalence of high
poverty incidence in farming and fishing communities (PSA 2017).
Scientific and technological advances are expected to play a crucial role in

ocean-based economic activities. Among these are:
• innovations in advanced materials

• subsea engineering and technology
• sensors and imaging
• satellite technologies
• computerization and big data analytics
• biotechnology and nanotechnology
Every sector of the ocean economy/blue economy stands to be affected by

these technological advances (See Section 4.1).
Aside from technologies and processes essential for realizing the potentials
of STI in helping address problems of a deteriorating ocean and for ensuring
sustainable development as described in the section on Philippine blue
economy (See Section 4.8), the transformation of ocean sciences needs
“a new movement”as the UN General Assembly has called for a Decade of
Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021–2030). The aim of“The
Decade”is to bring together researchers and stakeholders from all relevant
sectors to generate new scientific process/es to ensure a well-functioning,
productive, resilient, and sustainable ocean and support the UN 2030 Agenda
for Sustainable Development (Madin et al. 2019).
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Figure 4.10_4. Fisherfolk Count per sq km of Municipal Waters

Source: BFAR (2019)
Biodiversity and Ecosystem Health

Consistent with the global outlook, the country’s biodiversity and the services
it provides will continue to deteriorate in the coming three decades and
beyond if we continue with business as usual. Population growth will drive
the conversion of, and encroachment into, natural ecosystems. The expansion
of agriculture, infrastructure, urban development, and forest exploitation
will cause further natural habitat fragmentation and biodiversity loss, as well
as ecosystem services deterioration. Climate change will continue to alter
the composition, structure, function, and resilience of many species and
ecosystems. Many species will lose their habitats due to changing rainfall and
temperature patterns that could lead to species displacement and loss. The
timing of flowering and fruiting/reproduction in the terrestrial and aquatic
habitats will change, with significant impacts on their ecology and the
economy.
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SECTION 4.11
SHELTER, TRANSPORTATION, AND OTHER
INFRASTRUCTURE
Technologies for shelter, transportation, and other infrastructure in

human settlements, communities, and cities will be increasingly crucial for
our sustainable development through the coming decades and beyond.
Technological advances show great promise in enabling the country to not just
mitigate the effects of crises and disasters but also to prepare for them as best
as possible. In this regard, Shelter and Transportation are inextricably linked: the
former may be viewed as hubs and the latter as spokes in a human-settlement
network and addressing the needs of one also supplements and complements
the needs of the other.
Shelter in its most inclusive sense is any structure that is built for human
occupancy and in support of the needs of a community—notably for housing
and residence, emergency refuge, healthcare, education, governance, food
storage or preparation, commerce, manufacturing, and so on (Pacheco 2020).
On the other hand, transportation includes both the intra-community and
inter-community mobility of people, goods, and services especially in an
maritime and archipelagic environment.
As we have seen in Sections 2.5 and 3.2 of this Foresight, the development of
Philippine shelter and transportation is one of fits and starts, with numerous
plans seen over the years but little in the way of completion and follow-
through. However, there is yet hope: as we endeavor to show in this section,
the appropriate technology and innovation will be fundamental not just in
defining shelter and transportation themselves, but also in how these are
utilized and adapted for future needs.
Moreover, making communities and human settlements—as well as their

interconnection by way of transportation—inclusive, safe, resilient, and
sustainable is key to meeting the Philippines’own AmBisyon Natin 2040
plan as well as the United Nation (UN) Sustainable Development Goal (SDG)
11-“Sustainable Cities and Communities.”
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Shelter
There is an immediate need to provide safe, sustainable, and resilient
shelters, given the country’s extreme susceptibility to natural hazards.
According to the World Risk Index, the Philippines is the ninth most at-risk
country to the effects of natural hazards (Radtke and Weller 2019). In Metro
Manila alone, it is estimated that a magnitude 7.2 earthquake may result in
the complete collapse of over 88 million sq m of floor area and PHP 2.5 trillion
in economic losses (Bautista et al. 2013).
The effects of hydrometeorological hazards are also a major concern. For

instance, Tropical Cyclone Haiyan in 2013 left over a million houses destroyed
or damaged and 4 million people homeless (NDRRMC 2014). Meanwhile, the
current housing backlog stands at 3.9 million units and will balloon to 6.5
million units by 2030 (Padojinog et al. 2016). Thus, we need to sustain an
annual production of 346,000 units per year in order to meet the demand.
With other shelter types as well—such as schools, hospitals, evacuation
centers, transportation hubs, and others—backlogs are identified and bigger
future demands are projected.
Recent studies as of this writing have also revealed key insights into the
development of shelters and other infrastructure in the Philippines. Typhoon
Haiyan was a main point of discussion, considering the extent of its impact
and the response thereto in the years that followed. Hernandez et al. (2015),
Sanada et al. (2015), Youngkyou (2015), and Ravina et al. (2018) highlighted
the need for better construction materials and techniques, informed by the
hard-earned craftsmanship skills, indigenous knowhow, and local innovation
born from the on-the-ground experiences of disaster-stricken communities.
Opdyke et al. (2018a and 2018b) and Curato (2018), noted the importance of
logistics, training, local experience, and informed governance in preparing
and responding to disasters. As we show later in this section, both the
effective use of current technology and the appropriate adoption of upcoming
technology developments will be valuable in all these areas, as well as in
seeking to address other concerns such as minimizing carbon footprints and
efficient waste management. Quality as well as quantity of houses, structures,
and buildings must be addressed by updated building laws, regulations, and
standards (Pacheco 2020).
Transportation
Transportation presents endless challenges in terms of linking the islands
of the archipelago, the urban-rural communities and, in different ways,
providing mobility within urban centers like Metro Manila, Metro Cebu, and
Metro Davao. Urban transport problems include road and public transport
congestion; long average trip lengths; lack of decent public transportation
options; lagging public and active transport infrastructure; and high levels of
air and noise pollution (Gaabucayan-Napalang 2016).
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SHELTER, TRANSPORTATION, AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE
Though numerous master plans have been developed, non-implementation

and lack of coordination in government have led to further exacerbation of
these problems (JICA and ALMEC 2019). A continued focus on private car-
centric solutions is especially frustrating considering that, in Metro Manila
alone, only 20% of trips are made using private modes—e.g., motorcycle, cars,
taxis, etc.—while 50% are done through public modes, with the remaining
30% done by walking (JICA 2014). There has also been little discussion
regarding the urban-rural linkages, and the problems and solutions that
arise from these. Some of the infrastructure shortcomings include poor—
and sometimes altogether missing—road networks, and the lack of public
transport to some areas due to low economic viability (Wear 2009).
Recent transportation studies on optimization or efficiency have looked

at various possible solutions to these problems, from rideshare and
autonomous vehicles to using data science and information technology (IT) to
better understand accidents and hazards (Opiso and Puno 2015; Verzosa and
Miles 2016; Ubando et al. 2019; Lopez et al. 2020). More studies are needed
on combinations of road, rail, water, and air transportation modes, especially
considering the archipelagic setting and maritime nature of the country, and
the national aspiration to balance urban and rural development.
Others
Another area of infrastructure in communities and cities is solid waste
management, which ideally follows the principles of a circular economy:
the community should be able to process its own solid waste by reduction,
reuse, and recycling. The Philippine Development Plan 2017–2022 specifically
highlighted the demand for, and continuing inadequacy of, solid waste
management as a fundamental social infrastructure (NEDA 2017). As of 2017
alone, the country’s total solid waste generation was estimated at 40,000 tons
per day, yet only 37 percent of local government units were in compliance
with RA 9003 or the Ecological Solid Waste Management Act of 2000.
Hazardous wastes also remain largely unchecked, with insufficient data to
develop plans, policies, programs, and projects to handle their management
and proper disposal (NEDA 2017).
As explained below, technological advances in both shelter and

transportation may also be linked or coordinated with technologies for waste
management.
2050 and Beyond

Contemplating the future of shelter and transport in the country
necessitates a continuous revisiting—and, if necessary, a full revision—of our
understanding of these sectors as our communities change and grow. We
must be careful, for instance, not to take city expansion as the only path to
progress; other solutions may present themselves if we only allow ourselves
to rethink our notions of urbanization.
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PAGTANAW 2050
Secure home ownership and good transport facilities are minimum basic
needs that are also fundamental to what Filipinos perceive as“maginhawang
buhay”or a comfortable life, as discussed in AmBisyon Natin 2040, the 1987
Philippine Constitution, RA 8425, and the Philippine Development Plans
and which still remain relevant within the extended 30-year timeframe of
this Foresight. AmBisyon Natin 2040, in particular, identifies eight priority
sectors—all of which require shelter and transportation infrastructure:
• Housing and Urban Development

• Connectivity
• Manufacturing
• Education Services
• Tourism and Allied Services
• Agriculture
• Health and Wellness Services
• Financial Services
Specific to housing, for the average Filipino, house rental is a large and
continuing expense that eats into the budget for other daily needs. Thus,
access to decent shelter relates closely to the“panatag na buhay”secure life
that we all aspire to through AmBisyon Natin 2040, the minimum basic needs
under RA 8425, and this Foresight: to have enough resources to cover day-
to-day needs, peace and security, long and healthy lives, and a comfortable
retirement. Better housing specifically, or better shelter generally, also
provides peace and security with family and local community, and a
comfortable space to settle in upon retirement—a growing concern, as the
population shifts to a bigger proportion of senior citizens.
Better transportation facilities are also essential to this vision of a

comfortable life. Better facilities lead to faster and more convenient transport
of people and goods, which is the ultimate goal of transportation. Improved
transportation facilitates better work-life balance; more time for family and
friends; freedom from hunger, poverty, and homelessness; mobility to travel
for vacation; peace and security; a long and healthy life; and comfortable
retirement—all of which are enshrined in the 1987 Philippine Constitution, RA
No. 8425, the Philippine Development Plans, and AmBisyon Natin 2040.
Community and city planning should wisely integrate the components of

shelter and transportation in such ways that travel demand itself is minimized
while the mixed use of shelters and of land are carefully planned and
monitored—or, in the case of catastrophic events, the communities and cities
are better replanned and built back.
205
Suggested Technologies in Anticipation of

Future Needs
The UN highlights five emerging technology clusters that are crucial to
reaching its SDGs: digital technologies, nanotechnologies, biotechnologies,
neuro-technologies, and green—or, rather, clean—technologies (UN 2016b).
We adopt the term“clean technology”over“green technology”because
of the more encompassing nature of the former. Here we define clean
technology as any innovative technology, process, product, or service that
uses energy or resources in a sustainable manner and produces no or the
least negative impacts on society, environment, and economy (Uriarte 2020).
Many of the technologies that we see in the near and far horizon may be
associated with one or more of the above clusters (Table 4.11.3_1). We shall
endeavor to explain the various technological intervention in the following:
Shelter. Innovations as far afield as nanotechnology and even

biotechnology have had a profound impact on the design and
construction of shelters. Advances in these fields have led to the
development of new construction materials, e.g., aerogels for use as
insulation; window coatings and building cladding that automatically
adjust to changing weather and climes; clean bioluminescent lighting;
and high-strength, fire-resistant, and sustainably-sourced wood
structures. These new materials could result in houses and buildings
that are cheaper yet sturdier, and more energy-efficient than current
technologies allow.
3D printing, robotics, and artificial intelligence (AI) could then be used

to automate the assembly of these materials into shelters. Robotics will
play a large part in construction, particularly in highly repetitive and
accident-prone activities to minimize danger to laborers. AI-enabled
drones, or unmanned aerial vehicles, could also be used in tandem with
robots in actual construction processes. These automated technologies
will be particularly useful when structures need to be constructed
rapidly, as in disaster-stricken areas.
Once set up, the structures can be continually monitored and assessed
via AI and information and communications technology (ICT) for
integrity and adequacy in providing for the needs of their occupants.
Automated tools can be used to monitor the impact of infrastructure
development, economic cost, and communities’overall well-being. For
example, wireless sensors scattered through a community could monitor
temperature and water levels, while adaptive AI algorithms optimize
resource usage and compliance with pre-set parameters. Proper data
science and AI-enabled technology can make all of these possible timely
interventions while minimizing human error and bias.
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PAGTANAW 2050
At all stages of design and construction, virtual and augmented reality

(VR and AR) technology will enable policymakers and engineers to better
understand the impacts of infrastructure projects while—and even well
before—these are implemented. VR and AR can also be used to simulate
peoples’responses in emergency situations, enabling us to enhance
disaster evacuation plans and design drills.
The convergence of all these technologies could potentially result in

more democratic access to affordable housing, fewer street crimes,
more productive personal time, and an overall healthier and safer living
environment.
Transportation. Innovations in nanotechnology and biotechnology have

likewise had a profound effect on transportation. This is largely in the
way of biofuels, or fuels sourced from organic materials such as corn and
sugarcane; and lightweight yet energy-efficient batteries. Electric cars,
boats, and even airplanes are feasible mainly through the development
of such power sources, which impact these vehicles’carbon footprint
and operational range.
However, nanotechnology, biotechnology, and clean technology

also come together in the design and construction of the vehicles
themselves: new materials that are lightweight complement their
power sources’limitations. Materials technology also impacts vehicle
support infrastructure, such as charging stations, which must be put up
at strategic locations across the country to help reduce the fossil fuel
dependence and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the country.
Some transport solutions currently have limited applications in more

developed nations, at least for now, but will drastically revolutionize
transportation in the near future: these include magnetic levitation
(maglev) trains; autonomous or self-driving vehicles; and even flying
cars. How the Philippines manages its communities in the next 30 years,
specifically in terms of shelter and transportation, will be a major factor
in the possible local adaptation of any of these solutions. Ultimately,
these future modes of travel should allow consistently high average
speeds, enabling public and private commuters to live farther away
from their destinations. This will improve productivity, make travel
less stressful and more healthful, and enable wider access to reliable
transportation as a basic human right.
Meanwhile, autonomous vehicle technology—driven by advancements

in digital and neurotechnologies—has been maturing steadily in recent
years, demonstrating an improved ability to avoid accidents as well
as improved better energy efficiency. Self-driving automobiles will
come into their own in conjunction with beacon technology to help
synchronize traffic flow on increasingly congested roads.
207
Table 4.11.3_1. Product/System/Technology on the Horizon for Shelter, Transportation,

and Other Infrastructure
Technology Clusters (as defined in SDG 11)
Product/system/technology Digital
Clean/
Nanotech Biotech Neurotech Green
Tech
Tech
3D printing or additive manufacturing of materials = = = =
Active energy-response building cladding or window technology,
= = = =
including electrochromics and thermochromics
Aerogel insulation = = =
AI tools to monitor impact of infrastructure development to economic
= = =
cost and well-being of communities
Automatic small-freight transportation system using underground
= = =
spaces and building conduits
Autonomous vehicles = = = =
Battery-free wireless communications = = = =
Biofuels = = =
Bioluminescent lighting = = =
Building information modelling systems = = =
Carbon conversion, sequestration, storage in building materials = =
Carbon fiber bodies = = =

Decision-making software to support the optimization of building
= =
maintenance
Demand-responsive domestic appliances = = =
Digital floor plan-based automatic high-rise building construction
=
robots
Energy self-sufficient megabuilding design construction technology = =
Flying cars = = = =
Food storage, packaging, and distribution facilities = = = =
Fuel cells = = =
Fuel efficient and environment-friendly engines = =

High-speed vertical-horizontal 3D track system in high-rise-buildings-
= =
underground spaces
High-strength wood components and fire-resistant wood structures
for the construction of low- and high-rise wooden buildings, such as = =
office buildings
Household waste collection/transportation/categorization system for
= = = = =
recycling or energy-recovery
Hybrid electric vehicles = = =
Hyperloop transport = = = =
Hypersonic airplanes = = =
Indoor and outdoor operable unmanned vehicle technology = =
Internet of Things, Internet of Everything = = = = =
Maglev trains = = =
Micro-hydro system using rainwater in high-rise buildings = = =

Modularization-based LEGO-type one-day housing construction
= = =
technology
Multiple biometric recognition = =
Nano-energy generator = = =
Nanotech-improved LED Lightbulbs = =
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PAGTANAW 2050
Table 4.11.3_1. Continued

Technology Clusters (as defined in SDG 11)
Product/system/technology Digital
Clean/
Nanotech Biotech Neurotech Green
Tech
Tech
Natural bioremediation and phytoremediation in and around buildings = =
Passenger health monitoring systems = = = =
Photovoltaic cell = =
Pressure and motion sensors =
Quantum dot vision windows = =
Rainwater harvesting = =
Real-time continuous disaster-monitoring technology using remote
= =
sensing information of multiple satellites
RFID tagging and tracking systems = =
Robot inspection technology to inspect buildings or infrastructures
= = =
that are more dangerous or constly for humasn to inspect
Safety communications systems = =
Seismic damage prediction systems =
Shelters and emergency facilities = = = = =
Smart grid energy monitoring, networking, distribution = =

Smart paint and material for self-diagnosis of facility damage and
= = =
measurement of deterioration
Smart water monitoring = = =
Solar greywater disinfection = = =
Structural health monitoring; sensors in buildings = = =
Traffic control systems = = =

Unmanned low-altitude aircraft for the surveillance of territorial
= = = =
waters, disaster monitoring, and rescue support
Vertical farming = = =
Wastewater nutrient recovery = =
Digital and neuro technologies are integral to many other current

innovations that fall under the umbrella of Intelligent Transport Systems
(ITS)—basically, the application of ICT to aggregate large data sets to
inform the operations of various transportation systems, from real-time
traffic management to electronic payment and scheduling systems.
ITS can be closely tied to transportation and infrastructure. It could, for
example, be used to inform travelers of flood conditions ahead of them
or to help policymakers make more informed decisions based on the air,
noise, and traffic quality in their locality. ITS can also be used to monitor
the physical condition of transportation infrastructure in real time,
alerting agencies if and when upkeep is needed, as well as for accident
monitoring and prevention.
ICT could also be used to promote the use of public and active modes
of transportation. For public transportation, applications include
scheduling optimization, improved demand to capacity ratio, and better
fuel efficiency. As for active modes such as cycling and walking, better ICT
could provide route optimization not only in terms of distance but also in
209
terms of air quality and noise. Monitoring the condition of infrastructure

such as bike lanes and walk paths, paired with good information
dissemination systems such as mobile apps, will also increase the use
of these transport modes. Bike-sharing initiatives are also only possible
with good ICT infrastructure and better demand forecasting to improve
usage rates.
Transport planning and adjacent concerns—traffic management, road

safety, greenhouse emissions, etc.—would also improve when paired
with different technology-dependent applications. Aside from the
improved forecasting afforded by better data collection discussed earlier,
the use of Geographic Information System (GIS) to analyze service
areas of different transportation infrastructure such as public transport
terminals. The analysis of residential distribution compared with data
regarding work and study locations through GIS would allow planners to
locate these transportation terminals and identify public transport routes
that would capture a larger ridership.
These concepts can be seen in the principles of transit-oriented

development, wherein land use planning is based on the available
infrastructure. However, this is not feasible for already developed areas
such as Metro Manila. Hence, there is a need to adapt the planning of
transport modes to these developments—a development-oriented
transit planning.
These innovations are only possible with the proper support

infrastructure in place, such as sensors, cameras, gantries, and data
management centers. Aside from the shelter and transportation
infrastructure themselves, investment in ICT infrastructure is vital for the
country to achieve the vision set forth.
Others. Many of the previously listed technologies for shelter and

transportation could also be used for the management and safe disposal
of both solid and hazardous waste. Nanotechnology, robotics, and 3D
printing, for example, could be deployed to erect containment facilities
without risking human exposure to these wastes. ICT and AI for shelter
and transportation needs can also be adapted to specifically monitor and
address waste production and disposal.
Convergence underlies many of these technologies on various levels,

underscoring the potential for cooperation between various sectors.
For example, in terms of SDG 11 clusters, digital and biotechnology are
coming together, since computing technologies take inspiration from
biological processes. Meanwhile, the Internet of Things is enabling better
interactivity and coordination of the technologies between our vehicles
and homes. For example, in conjunction with satellite data and remote
sensors, one’s mobile phone could provide updates on commuter traffic
at bus stops and train stations or provide farmers real-time updates
on crop health. In terms of circular economies, various technologies
for shelter and solid waste management could enable more clean and
efficient waste-handling.
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PAGTANAW 2050
Policies and Futures

That the above emergent or emerging technologies encompass shelter
and transportation as well as solid waste management attests to the
interrelatedness and interconnectivity of these sectors. The development
and appropriate adoption of technologies in these and all other sectors are
ultimately also dependent on technologies for the gathering and analysis
of data and information, both extensively and intensively, i.e., data science.
Ultimately, access to information is fundamental to the development of these
technologies in anticipation of future needs, including the establishment
of smart communities. Not only should everyone be assured of decent
minimum bandwidth access—at least enough to adequately communicate
online—but they should also be assured of access to critical information in
a timely manner so they can make better-informed decisions. In this way,
digital technology powers the other technology clusters: nanotechnology,
biotechnology, neuro-technology, and clean technology.
In Table 4.11.4_1, we consider the following as facets of the Philippines’

aspirations: Sustainability, Resilience, Competitiveness, Inclusivity, and
Human Development. We then look at how SDG 11 addresses these areas,
with sample recommendations for policies that should be implemented
immediately and/or into the medium- and long-term future. It must be
stressed, however, that a regular iterative process of reassessment and
readjustment is necessary so that policies and targets remain aligned with the
needs and aspirations of Philippine communities as we journey to the year
2050.
Many of the challenges and opportunities for innovation are at the regional
and local levels, where the full range of science, technology, innovation,
craftsmanship, and skills outlined and aspired to in this Foresight can
best be brought to bear in service of even the most far-flung communities,
households, and individuals. Upcoming innovations in shelter, transportation,
solid waste management, and other areas discussed elsewhere in this
Foresight will play increasingly crucial roles not only in improving Filipinos’
lives in the near and long term, but also in building back better after any
future catastrophic events.
211
212
Table 4.11.4_1. Policies and Futures for Shelter, Transportation, and Other Infrastructure with Reference to the SDGs
Sustainability Resilience Competitiveness Inclusivity Human Development
(11.6) REDUCE THE (11.5) REDUCE THE ADVERSE (11.A) STRONG NATIONAL AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT (11.3) INCLUSIVE AND SUSTAINABLE (11.1) SAFE AND AFFORDABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF CITIES: EFFECTS OF NATURAL PLANNING: Support positive economic, social and URBANIZATION: By 2030, enhance HOUSING: By 2030, ensure
By 2030, reduce the adverse per DISASTERS: By 2030, significantly environmental links between urban, peri-urban and rural inclusive and sustainable urbanization access for all to adequate, safe
capita environmental impact of cities, reduce the number of deaths and areas by strengthening national and regional development and capacity for participatory, and affordable housing and
paying special attention to air quality the number of people affected planning integrated and sustainable human basic services and upgrade
and municipal and other waste and substantially decrease the settlement planning and management slums
management direct economic losses relative (11.B) IMPLEMENT POLICIES FOR INCLUSION, RESOURCE in all countries
to global gross domestic product EFFICIENCY, AND DISASTER RISK REDUCTION: By 2020, (11.4) PROTECT THE WORLD’S
(11.2) AFFORDABLE AND caused by disasters, including substantially increase the number of cities and human (11.7) PROVIDE ACCESS TO SAFE CULTURAL AND NATURAL
SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT water-related disasters, with a settlements adopting and implementing integrated policies AND INCLUSIVE GREEN AND PUBLIC HERITAGE: Strengthen efforts
SYSTEMS: By 2030, provide access focus on protecting the poor and and plans towards inclusion, resource efficiency, mitigation SPACES: By 2030, provide universal to protect and safeguard the
to safe, affordable, accessible and people in vulnerable situations and adaptation to climate change, resilience to disasters, access to safe, inclusive and world’s cultural and natural
sustainable transport systems for and develop and implement, in line with the Sendai accessible, green and public spaces, in heritage
all, improve road safety, notably Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, holistic particular for women and children, older
by expanding public transport, disaster risk management at all levels persons and persons with disabilities
with special attention to the needs
of those in vulnerable situations, (11.C) SUPPORT LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES IN
Relevant SDG11 Indicators and Goals

women, children, persons with SUSTAINABLE AND RESILIENT BUILDING: Support least
disabilities and older persons developed countries, through financial and technical
assistance, in building sustainable and resilient buildings
utilizing local materials
Policies: Policies: Policies: Policies: Policies:

Mandating the construction To safely evacuate and transport Provide for consultation with, and education of, local Implementing technologies that Develop low-cost resilient
of inclusive and accessible communities to safe areas and communities regarding knowledge and skills born from on- reduce accidents and increase public shelters to meet housing
infrastructure and transport facilities, disaster shelters. the-ground experiences of disaster-stricken communities. safety, e.g., autonomous vehicles and demand in highly populated and/
e.g., building codes that require To develop storm surge barriers monitoring systems or disaster-stricken areas.
access ramps, safety rails, etc. and closure dams for flood-prone Metrics: Policies that consider lessening or
Levels of Urgency of Policy Intervention

Mandating proper waste handling areas. (11.B.1) Country adopts and implements national disaster eliminating peoples’ travel time, e.g.
Allocate strategic spaces for
at all community levels, e.g., To improve the quality of shelter risk reduction strategies in line with the Sendai Framework work-from-home setups, flexi-time
upgraded housing and cultural
segregation schemes, recycling materials and the craftmanship for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 offices, work-home clusters, etc.
community activities.
facilities, etc. of shelters
Metrics:
Metrics: Metrics: (11.3.2) proportion of cities with Metrics:
Immediate
(11.2.1) Proportion of population (11.5.1) Number of deaths, a direct participation structure of (11.1.1) The proportion of
that has convenient access to public missing persons and persons civil society in urban planning and urban population living in
transport, by sex, age and persons directly affected by disaster per management that operate regularly and slums, informal settlements or
with disabilities 100,000 people democratically inadequate housing
(11.6.1) Proportion of urban solid (11.7.2) Proportion of persons who
waste regularly collected and with are victims of physical or sexual
adequate final discharge out of total harassment, by sex, age, disability
urban solid waste generated, by cities status and place of occurrence, in the
previous 12 months
Table 4.11.4_1. Continued
Sustainability Resilience Competitiveness Inclusivity Human Development
Policies: Policies: Policies:

To adopt technologies which have Reserach funding for the design and construction of Policies that provide for the sufficient
lesser environmental impact, e.g., shelters, and for disaster response plans allocation of green communal spaces
electric vehicles and clean fuels. within urbanized areas, e.g., city parks
Metrics: and walkways.
Metrics: (11.A.1) Proportion of population living in cities that
(11.6.2) Annual mean levels of fine implement urban and regional development plans Metrics:
particulate matter (e.g., PM2.5 and integrating population projections and resource needs, by (11.7.1) Average share of the built-up
Medium-term
PM10) in cities (population weighted) size of city area of cities that is open space for
public use for all, by sex, age and
persons with disabilities
Policies: Policies: Policies: Policies:

To categorize and define areas Incentivise local government units to devise and adopt Policies that position green spaces Incentivise the identification,
which are frequently stricken by disaster response plans and clean technology as fundamental preservation, and repurposing
disasters to long-term community growth and (where appropriate) of areas and
Provide for the permanent Metrics: development, e.g., green cities and infrastructure of high historical
relocation of communities from (11.B.2) Proportion of local governments that adopt and regional energy self sufficiency and/or cultural value
frequently disaster-stricken areas implement local disaster risk reduction strategies in line Provide for technologies that
with national disaster risk reduction strategies Metrics: can be used to preserve and
Metrics: (11.C.1) Proportion of financial support to the least (11.3.1) Ratio of land consumption rate propagate indigenous knowledge
(11.5.2) Direct economic loss in developed countries that is allocated to the construction to population growth rate and other forms of intangible
Levels of Urgency of Policy Intervention

Long-term
relation to global GDP, damage to and retrofitting of sustainable, resilient and resource- heritage
critical infrastructure and number efficient buildings utilizing local materials
of disruption of basic services, Metrics:
attributed to disasters (11.4.1) Total expenditure (public
and private) per capita spent on
the preservation, protection and
conservation of all cultural and
natural heritage
PAGTANAW 2050
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SECTION 4.12
SPACE EXPLORATION
The Philippines initially participated in space technology primarily only through

the use of data and equipment provided by other countries. Realizing the
relatively short lifetime of satellites and the technological advances achieved in
the development of space technology, many countries, including our neighbors,
have started putting together their own space systems so as to be less dependent
on data and facilities provided by other countries. Being an archipelagic and
maritime nation, the Philippines has recently participated in this endeavor,
through the initiative of the Department of Science and Technology and
succeeding efforts of the new Philippine Space Agency (PhilSA).
In the Space Economy report published by the Space Foundation USA,

the global space economy was valued at USD423.80 billion in 2019 (Space
Foundation 2020). Of this amount, about 79% or USD336.89 billion came
from commercial space revenue and the remaining amount was government
spending. According to a recent Australian Government report (Australian
Government and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation 2019), the value of
earth and marine observation (EMO) to the Philippines economy in 2019 was
estimated at USD657 million. With targeted investments and collaboration,
the economic contribution of EMO to the country’s gross domestic product
(GDP) is projected to grow to USD6.6 billion by 2030. For the Philippines
to seize these opportunities in the global space economy and derive
optimum economic value from upstream and downstream space science
and technologyapplications (SSTA) activities, public and private sector
investments and partnerships in space research and development (R&D),
capacity-building and infrastructure need to be sustained. This includes
support for establishment of enabling environment, i.e., relevant facilities
that will nurture scientific innovation and operational requirements in SSTA.
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Short-Term and Long-Term Goals

in the Upstream and Downstream
Developments in Space
• Spurring scientific growth that fosters patriotism and accelerates
national progress
• Promoting improved public access and resource-sharing for

the utilization of spacebornedata, space-enabled services, and
space-related facilities;
• Accelerating the transfer and diffusion of space technologies

throughout Philippinesociety towards developing a robust and
vibrant local space economy
• Creating a coherent and unified strategy for the development,

utilization, and promotionof SSTA in line with the Philippine
Space Policy
• Enhancing the Philippines’official representation and

contribution in the internationalspace community for
establishing cooperation.
Upstream Space Initiatives

For the upstream space segment, the goal is to realize and expand economic
opportunities, e.g., GDP growth, job creation, inbound capital investments,
as a direct result or spillover effect of the local innovations in space missions
and satellite technologies. Fostering capabilities in the upstream segment
enables influence in the standards that govern downstream operations and
applications, such as end-user applications and requirements. Building space
satellite payloads and buses equip us with the wherewithal to adapt to and
anticipate evolving downstream requirements, thus the ability to customize
solutions for existing and new downstream verticals.
Participating in the upstream value chain of space offers opportunities

for local design, manufacturing and testing services that will help put us
on a path of building stronger industries in aerospace, semiconductors,
electronics, mechanical products and materials, among others. This, in
turn, can lead to more high-value jobs that are useful across a wide range of
modern industries.
In the near term, this initiative targets the development of a 100-150 kg

class satellite in an industrial setting with the end-to-end participation of
Filipino engineers and scientists, starting with the Mula multispectral Earth
observation satellite in 2020. Inherent in this setup, therefore, is formal
know-how transfer and retention for the country, which is leveraged to
subsequently produce a pipeline of satellites with increasing local inputs. The
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supply, fabrication, and testing of subsystems in succeeding efforts to rebuild

the satellite can be pursued domestically, which can spur local space industry
development.
The upstream space segment also involves infrastructure such as rockets, and
spaceports used to launch spacecraft into space orbit which also allows the
launch of sophisticated satellites that are now being used to study the Earth
and the Universe. The basic requirement for a space technology program is
the capability to build rockets and be able to launch them. The Philippines
has had a modest rocket program (the Santa Barbara Project) but this was
classified and a trace of that capability is no longer available. It is now
recognized that such a program should be revived as soon as ample funding
to pursue such an endeavor is available. The roadmap for space development
in the Philippines is shown in Figure 4.12_1.
Currently, the Philippines depends on other countries and windows of

opportunities to be able to launch its satellite. The ability to be able to
launch our own definitely has a lot of advantages and lies at the heart of our
aspirations to be a space-faring nation. One advantage is the ability to build
satellites at the desired technical specification without worrying about the
restrictions and capability of available launch vehicles. We will also be able to
control the trajectory and orbital parameters that fit the goals of the mission.
Furthermore, there are many military applications including the development
of defense systems that can protect our cities from hostile attacks.
Figure 4.12_1. Near- to Medium-Term Capability Roadmap in Satellites and Upstream

Space Development
Source: PhilSA (2020)
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Downstream Space Initiatives

The Philippines is already an active user in the downstream space segment
in terms of the data and services generated by satellites. Over the last few
decades, satellite data became more accessible with key national space
agencies (e.g., National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Japan
Aerospace Exploration Agency, and European Space Agency) making their
data freely available to the public and private companies (e.g., MAXAR, Planet)
offering commercial data through paid subscription. We expect this trend to
continue, and with the country’s satellite development program generating
its own, voluminous amounts of data are available for many different
applications. Geospatial information from Earth observation satellites have
been shown to be effective in supporting effective disaster risk reduction
and management, agricultural crop monitoring and mapping, forestry
management, land use and land change mapping, and maritime domain
awareness, among other applications (Australian Government and the Asia-
Pacific Economic Cooperation 2019).
The data can help enable better governance through evidence-based policies
and their effective monitoring or assessment, which are crucial in alleviating
challenges brought about by large scale crises such as the COVID-19
pandemic. Satellite images and other spaceborne data serve as tools that
support timely planning, monitoring, and evaluation over large geographical
areas.
In the near term, we will continue to support investments in capabilities for

low-level access to satellite data, and the generation of higher-level, value-
added data products. With the reversal of economic growth and increasing
unemployment due to the impacts of the pandemic, addressing water and
food security is at the forefront of the government’s recovery program. In this
regard, precision agriculture systems that make use of satellite data would
help determine suitable areas for crops or commodities, especially in the
regions where there is an influx of displaced populations from the metropolis.
Solutions that will increase farm productivity with fewer input resources
and without further expansion of arable lands are also sought after. As for
wild-catch fisheries, maps that delineate productive waters are invaluable
in maximizing fishery catch and at the same time provide locations of key
spawning areas that need to be protected to sustain the fishery industry
(Klemas 2013). In addition to providing a sustainable food supply, there
must be sufficient water for domestic, agriculture, and industry needs. To
aid in water resources management, we can use satellite observations in
monitoring precipitation, waterways, and aquifers.
Other priority areas include preparedness for natural hazards, climate change
mitigation, and disaster response. In 2018, the country ranked 3rd among the
most disaster-prone countries (Muller-Karger et al. 2018). We should exploit
available satellite data to contribute to the concerted effort of minimizing
damages to properties and loss of lives. The continuous degradation of our
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environment is also a cause of concern. Advanced satellite instruments can

now monitor air and water quality, as well as changes in vegetation cover.
Leveraging these capabilities, we can aid in the implementation of some key
environmental programs such as the Manila Bay mandamus and the National
Greening Program.
The realization of these goals is embodied in the initiatives of the PhilSA

on“Mobilizing Space Data”,which support the continued operation
and expansion of local ground receiving stations, along with processing,
archiving, and distribution systems through the Philippine Earth Data
Resource Observation Center. With our ability to process satellite data, we
can now routinely generate level 1 to level 3 analysis-ready data and value-
added products that can be used for decision-making. The data processing
workflows employing remote sensing, data science, machine learning or
Artificial Intelligence (AI) are addressed through the institutionalization of
the Remote Sensing and Data Science Help Desk project. A 3-tiered approach
in data mobilization, as shown in Figure 4.12_2, outlines how satellite
data products will be utilized by various agencies and integrated into their
operations.
Level 3: Realize Outcomes

Level 2: Institutionalize
Level 1: Engage In-House Integration for Operational
Drive National Policies and Progress
Requirements
Data Collaboration
Economic benefit from space-enabled
Regular and on-demand production of
Data product development data mobilization increased by 5x-8x
decision-ready data products through in-
collaboration agreements in
house capabilities starting with Philippine
agriculutre, fisheries, census, and
Space Council members.
maritime domain awareness
2020-2022 2022-2028 2028-
Figure 4.12_2. Near to Medium Term Capability Roadmap in Space Data Downstream
Utilization and Development
Advances in data processing will continue while putting emphasis on the

creation of climate data records, where data quality conforms to the strictest
standards. It is imperative that by this time, a robust ground calibration
network such as spectrometers, Light Detection and Ranging, and flux towers
are established around the country. The Philippines should also embark on
continuity earth observation (EO) missions (e.g., Landsat program) to ensure
the collection of physical, chemical, and biological variables that are essential
in understanding the Earth’s climate. Assimilating these observations in
models will give the Philippines more accurate weather forecasts and reliable
climate projections for planning and policy recommendations.
Furthermore, we should also consider participating in international EO

missions, which will be more cost-effective and could address more
comprehensive science questions like the constellation of hyperspectral
satellites that can monitor essential biodiversity variables of coastal
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ecosystems (Muller-Karger et al. 2018). Other applications of spaceborne data

such as in space weather, telecommunication, and navigation should also
be maximized. In the long term, the desired outcome for mobilizing satellite
images and spaceborne data downstream is achieved when decision support
systems and evidence-based policies are cascaded into society.
Summary and Conclusion

The critical need to be involved in space technology has led to the creation
of the Philippine Space Agency in 2019. Starting with a very modest budget
allocation, the short-term goals and long-term goals are discussed in terms
of upstream and downstream needs eventually leading to a fully functional
and impactful space agency. The strategy for the upstream is to develop
expertise in space technology through capacity-building and know-how
transfer through international cooperation. Current plans to launch new
satellite systems will continue with the help of other countries and at the
same time develop and enhance local capabilities in space technology. In the
longer term, the agency plans to develop the capability to build rockets and
become less dependent on other countries in the launch of satellite systems.
This will enable the timely launch of satellites we need for environmental,
risk assessment, climate studies, communication, and navigation. On the
downstream, currently available data from various sources, including
freely available data from other countries, will be processed, converted to
geophysical parameters of the archipelago and its maritime territory and
distributed to agencies and legislators that need them for policy making
decisions and scientists from universities and other institutions that need
them to conduct research. Expert systems will be developed using artificial
intelligence to better fulfill the basic missions in food security, safe domestic
water and risk management.
By engaging in both the upstream and downstream of space, we can

instantiate a virtuous cycle that we should nurture and feed. The virtuous
cycle will enable us to develop and sustain endogenous science and
technology capacity that can supplant the vicious cycle of technological
dependence.
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Medical Technology
Primary conceptual idea by Timothy James Dimacali, Julius Sempio and Jerome
Suplemento II
The future of medical technology lies in the ability to safely plumb the depths
of the human body to root out sickness and disease while maintaining the
Hippocratic oath to“do no harm.”Here we see the potential development of
various scanning and display technologies that will enable a comprehensive
visualization and understanding of a patient’s body, enabling medical personnel
to quickly assess a proper diagnosis and decide on the best course of medical
action with minimal or no need for invasive testing procedures.

SECTION 5
Uncertainties, Risks, Shocks,
and Black Swans
UNCERTAINTIES, RISKS, SHOCKS, AND BLACK SWANS
The operational areas identified in this Foresight are intended to enable

the realization of the aspirations of the Filipino people towards a state
of wellbeing. Various approaches and particular technologies have
been identified for this 30-year journey towards inclusive and equitable
development. This section identifies the uncertainties, risks, and shocks
that may arise during the implementation of the science, technology, and
innovation (STI) inputs for the national development agenda, intended to
benefit 144 million Filipinos by the year 2050.
Will growth and scarcity generate their own technological and social
solutions?
There is disagreement on the nature of the problem (Warner et al. 1996).

There are those who feel that the limits imposed by scarce resources can
be resolved technologically and socially even as the human population
continues to put pressure to satisfy its needs. Others propose to impose
radical measures for population control. While a third approach is to balance
“continued growth with the preservation of the world ecosystem” (Warner et
al. 1996; Vitousek et al. 1997).
The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed in a more pronounced manner the

fragile situation of the global and local economies and the inequalities that
have been created in the long history of development (World Bank 2017;
UNIDO 2018; FAO 2020b; UNCBD Secretariat 2020).
The technosphere, also mentioned in earlier sections of this Foresight, is a

“network whose nodes, or intersection points, are people and technological
artifacts. Energy, materials, information, and other essentials flow through
the links that connect these nodes” (Haff 2013, 2017). Its components are
“the world’s humans, its transportation, communication, information,
power, financial, education, and health systems and the world’s cities, farms,
militaries, bureaucracies, and other social-technological organizations,
all technological systems and artifacts requiring energy and materials for
their function or maintenance, as well as humans, are components of the
technosphere.” Haff (2017) considers the technosphere as the defining system
of the Anthropocene, the unofficial name of the current historical epoch.
The technosphere has brought about new forces and conditions that have
radically changed our environment and is now tasked with the challenge of
recycling its products, by-products, and waste materials—including its huge
mountain of products that have become obsolete (Haff 2013).
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This section will deal with the functionality of the STI system—i.e., its ability
to withstand, survive, sustain its activities in the face of uncertainties, risks,
and shocks—when events that are not supposed to happen take place. Since
human beings are vital to the survival of the technosphere, managing the
interaction between human beings and technology, including their attendant
material and energy flows, is the key to the functionality of the technosphere
(Haff 2014). Human beings provide the brain power, the imagination, and
creativity to keep the system going in the face of uncertainties and risks.
The Uncertainties, Risks, and Shocks

Recent progress in science and technology has enabled us to see more,
detect more, sense more, and know more—moreso at our moments of dire
need. Nevertheless, as we pursue new knowledge and innovation, there
are uncertainties, risks, and shocks that have to be dealt with. Rapid and
complex developments in the social, economic, environmental, political,
and technological scene at the global and national domain are accompanied
by varying levels of uncertainties, risks, and shocks, also known as “black
swans,” that have an impact on our ability to create wealth and promote
national well-being (Magruk 2017).
Using available information and tools to gather data allows us to gain an idea
of the nature of the uncertainty, risks, and shocks that may be encountered
during the development of STI. Predicting the consequences of such
vulnerabilities is a big challenge and at times may not be possible at all.
Nevertheless, the intent of foresight is to identify the possible uncertainties,
risks, and shocks and determine their possible positive or negative impact,
time of occurrence and extent of disruption or impact.
The “black swan” is a highly improbable and shocking occurrence and is

characterized by three attributes (Taleb 2010):
• It is an outlier:“lies outside the realm of regular expectations,

because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility.”
(Taleb 2010)
• Extreme impact
• Can only be explained after the occurrence
An example of a black swan occurrence is the 9/11 attack on the World Trade
Center in New York City. It is an uncommon event that resulted in the loss of
many lives, destruction of property, and the tightening of travel security. Only
after the event was an explanation of the circumstances that led to such an
incident made possible.
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The rapid pace and increasing complexity of developments, globally and

locally, exacerbate the occurrence of black swan, as well as uncertainties and
risks. Aven (2015) proposed a classification of black swan events as follows:
• Unknown unknowns such as 9/11 attack on the World Trade Center

• Unknown knowns (knowledge of the possible risk is known by
others) such as the crew of a fishing boat deciding to face the storm,
ending in tragedy.
• Events with negligible probability of occurrence such as accidents in
an oil and gas installation.
A more rigorous level of analysis of these vulnerabilities will be important

inputs in the creation and assessment of scenarios that will be the basis
for strategies in the conduct of specific STI activities. For purposes of this
Foresight, it might suffice to list the possible uncertainties and risks that
might be perceived in the light of current circumstances; black swans, by
definition, are all but impossible to identify.
In a report for McKinsey and Company, Baumgartner et al. (2020) identified

vulnerabilities in the industrial supply chains that can affect efficiency, and
provided estimates on their magnitude of disruption, frequency, and ability
to be anticipated. These uncertainties have been identified in the context
of industrial supply chains but can nevertheless affect any—and possibly
even all—the operational areas in this Foresight. The following are sample
disruptions classified by the estimated lead time in which they can be
anticipated:
• Days
◦ Acute climate events (hurricanes, typhoons)
◦ Idiosyncratic event (dirty bomb)
• Weeks
◦ Extreme pandemic
◦ Financial crisis
◦ Regulation and changes thereof
◦ Super volcano eruption
◦ Pandemic
◦ Acute climate event (heat wave)
• Months
◦ Global military conflict
◦ Trade disputes, collapse of regional coalitions and withdrawal from
trade agreements
◦ Local military conflict
• Difficult to anticipate
◦ Meteoroid strikes
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◦ Solar storms
◦ Extreme terrorism
◦ Systemic cyberattack
◦ Major geophysical event
◦ Terrorism
◦ Human-made disaster
◦ Common cyberattack
◦ Counterfeit
◦ Theft
In addition to the abovementioned vulnerabilities, the global trends

identified in previous sections of this report will also affect the Philippines’
STI activities. Viewed in a larger context, the above vulnerabilities will also
disrupt the functions of the knowledge infrastructure, the flow of knowledge,
and the mobility of STI human resources. In addition to the disruptions
identified in the McKinsey Report (Baumgartener et al. 2020), there are also
other issues that can stop, interrupt, suspend, hamper, delay and retard STI
activities, especially the deployment of technologies in the operational areas
of this Foresight. Some of these vulnerabilities may be similar to those in the
McKinsey Report, albeit occuring locally. This list is by no means complete,
but we offer the following areas as possible sources of uncertainties,
interruptions, and delay in the STI sector:
• Natural disasters in areas where field experiments are being conducted:

typhoons, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, droughts, floods, pests,
diseases
◦ Data collection and the destruction of the scientific equipment, e.g.,
Doppler Tower recently destroyed by Typhoon Rolly in Catanduanes
• Stresses, possibly brought about by climate change, that will affect
experiments in crops, livestock and poultry, and fisheries
◦ Abiotic stresses like drought, soil nutrient deficiencies, pollution
◦ Pests and diseases of humans, animal, and plants including zoonotic
disease
• Disruptions in the STI Knowledge Infrastructure (K-12 schools, public
and private HEIs, Voc-Tech training centers, research institutions)
◦ Quality of training in the STI knowledge infrastructure
◦ Disruptions in the information infrastructure especially in
telecommunications
◦ Demand for talent to address development problems such as
environmental pollution, technical assistance to MSME and access to
cost-effective technologies to address minimum basic needs
◦ Migration of STI talent through the OFW program of the Philippine
government
◦ Competition for highly trained STI talent from other countries
◦ Protectionism by countries resulting in the restriction of access to
new knowledge
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◦ Cost-effective online courses from more advanced countries might

render some the curricular offerings in Philippine HEIs redundant.
• Major changes in the development agenda and support for STI brought
about by change in government leadership
◦ On the positive side, a significant increase in STI investment from the
public and private sector may challenge the absorptive capacity of
the research & development community
◦ Resistance to technological change (Mokyr 1992)
• Management of STI Activities
◦ Increase of inequality
◦ Unintended consequences of technologies such as displacement of
labor, generation of toxic wastes, etc. (Acemoglu and Restrepo 2019)
◦ Disruption in the supply chain of research equipment and materials
◦ Funding of STI activities
• Flow of R&D funds is hampered by absorptive capacity
◦ Regulatory regimes affecting the timely procurement and supply of
research materials and equipment
◦ Indicators for assessing scientific activity and compliance with global
initiatives such as the SDG, the evaluation of scholarly publications
and the target density of R&D workers per million population.
(Acemoglu et al. 2014)
◦ Research Management and Grants Administration Systems in public
and private institutions engaged in R&D
◦ Reliable and updated database on public and private investments in
R&D
◦ Market-driven R&D agenda
◦ Reorganization of DOST
◦ Coordination among DOST, DA, DENR, DOH, DICT, CHED, TESDA,
SUCs, Professional Regulation Commission, Private Sector R&D,
National Innovation Council
◦ Implementation laws affecting STI
◦ Communication program to improve public understanding of
science and to promote a culture for innovation
• Competition from other countries, especially ASEAN, that will render
some of our R&D work redundant.
• Recovery from the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic
Anti-Science Movements
Past events such as the Luddites, the Scopes trial, the Nazi efforts on
eugenics, attacks on genetics, space science, and the vaccines have fueled
the intensification of the current antiscience movement which is increasingly
becoming global. These assaults have been picked up by some politicians to
further their political careers. When decisions of great impact are made based
on biased information, the long-term, sometime irreversible effects can be
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disastrous. For a country like the Philippines that has to catch-up in science,
technology, and innovation, the antiscience movement can have a crippling
effect and will further delay efforts to address uniquely local problems (Hotez
2021).
Conclusion
Resilience and agility in the governance of STI will allow us to cope with
uncertainties, risks, and shocks, whether they occur as isolated events or in
combination. Holling (1973) defines resilience as the ability of an ecosystem
to “absorb changes and still exist.” Agility is defined as the “ability of an
organization to respond rapidly to changes in demand, both in terms of
volume and variety” (Christopher et al. 2000). It is noted that resilience and
agility may overlap in certain situations.
There are four concerns that need to be seriously considered in the

management of response to uncertainties, risks and shocks:
First, coping with these vulnerabilities should not create nor exacerbate
inequalities. Inequality is a barrier to the realization of the full potential of
human beings (Cozzens 2008, 2016) and STI must not be used to create these
inequalities. The COVID-19 pandemic has intensified the existence of these
inequalities which can no longer be ignored such as access to health care,
livelihood, and continuous learning.
Second, our enthusiasm to generate new technologies has messed up

our environment. We will now have to correct the negative effects of the
technosphere that we created especially in the recycling and disposal of waste
materials and products that have outlived their usefulness. This seeming
neglect has inflicted damage to our environment and affected the quality of
life. This is best exemplified by the solid wastes generated by wanton use of
plastics of various types.
Third, we should not lose control of the technosphere, which is gradually

acquiring a life of its own (Ialenti 2020). Booby traps are already emerging
such as the overshadowing of refereed journal articles by blogs, the threat
of displacement of labor by automation, and, as cited by Johnson et al.
(2012), the possible abuses that could result from the application of artificial
intelligence.
Lastly, the antiscience movement will certainly affect the application of the
rigor of science to support human flourishing and not the collapse of societies.
It is our duty to build the intellectual infrastructure that will live beyond
anyproduct of the technosphere.
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DIGITAL ARTWORK
Marketplace
Primary conceptual idea by Jerome Suplemento II,Timothy James Dimacali, and
Julius Sempio
The Talipapa, or small wet market, is a central feature of Philippine society—

an accessible and convenient place to buy affordable foodstuffs and other
essentials. In the future, small and medium enterprises will be able to do
business with their customers in a clean, sanitized, and well-maintained
public space. Robot cleaners and sensor-equipped sanitation personnel and
product inspectors will help maintain a consistently sanitary environment
amid the usual bustle of the marketplace.

SECTION 6
A Roadmap to the Future
Delphi Surveys, Technology Clusters, & Future Foresighting
SECTION 6.1
DELPHI SURVEYS, TECHNOLOGY
CLUSTERS, AND FORESIGHTING
DELPHI Survey Results

After two rounds of Delphi surveys (see Section 1.1), respondents from across
the National Academy of Science and Technology, Philippines (NAST PHL) and
experts managed to reach a consensus on the ten key points (Table 6.1_1).
Seventy-four percent of 206 respondents expected changes in the aspirations

outlined in AmBisyon Natin 2040 due to COVID-19. Based on rankings,
respondents named the following as the topmost priorities:
(1) eliminate poverty and hunger

(2) ensure improved wellbeing of Filipinos (well-being here is the state
of being happy, comfortable, and healthy)
(3) foster innovation
The above-mentioned priorities were also reflected in the top trends that
respondents considered in the foresight. Expectedly, the topmost answer
was growing poverty and hunger. These were followed by climate change
and deepening environment risks and growing inequality. Respondents also
agreed that the most significant disruption as Filipinos journey to 2050 would
be the recovery from globally disruptive events such as pandemics and armed
conflicts. Acute climate events came in second, followed by the sustainability
of science, technology, and innovation (STI) interventions.
In terms of adequacy of the current STI foresight, 69% of 243 respondents did
not name additional areas for consideration. Marine science was identified
as the field of current strength of STI in the Philippines. Excellence was also
observed in agriculture with rice science and technology and major export
crops. Respondents also evaluated the importance and feasibility of the
Philippines as the leading global or regional centers in the following areas by
2050:
(1) regional center of agricultural biotechnology research, development,

and innovation
(2) leading global center of excellence in marine science
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When asked about public and private institutional and organizational

changes needed to enhance the role of STI in the development and daily
lives of Filipinos, there was consensus that changes are needed to improve
the quality of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM)
instruction in K-12. This was followed by the improvement in the quality
of instruction at the undergraduate level in Philippine Higher Education
Institutions (HEIs) while science literacy program development and
institutionalization were third. Aside from changes in public and private
organizations and institutions, respondents answered questions on the
improvement of quality and quantity of talent development and retention in
STI. The following mechanisms were ranked based on importance:
(1) create attractive, regular, and stable employment opportunities for

highly trained STI workers in the public and private sector
(2) improve the ecosystem for the conduct of research and development
(R&D) in the Philippines
(3) expand incentives for the Philippines to be attractive to knowledge
workers (local and foreign) including formulation of appropriate
immigration policies and review of relevant existing laws
The respondents also believed that STI could be harnessed to assert our
sovereignty and identity as a maritime nation. Almost 70% of 243 respondents
said all of the following should be done concerning the Philippine seas:
• publish and popularize and widely disseminate a scientifically

designed map showing the maritime territorial limits of the
Philippines as confirmed by international bodies like UNCLOS and
the Tribunal
• expand surveillance capability of the Philippine Coast Guard to
effectively monitor our territorial limits by using well-designed
watercrafts and sensors attached to autonomous unmanned water
vehicles
• initiate wider exploration of the Philippine territorial waters for
valuable and strategic natural resources
• support R&D initiatives to work on an inventory of biological
resources in Philippine territorial waters
• collaborate with other countries in Asia for an integrated marine
resource management program
The last part of the Delphi survey dealt with public investments and
interventions and STIs that could stimulate and shape technologies to reduce
poverty or conditions associated with poverty. Respondents had a consensus
that public investments should be allotted to ensuring equitable access to
nutritious and affordable food. This was followed by the following: improving
access to clean domestic water supply and sanitation in rural areas and urban
slums and designing and implementing resilient and efficient supply chains.
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Table 6.1_1. Top Three Answers in the Delphi Survey Questions

Delphi Survey Questions Top Three Answers
1. Do you expect any changes in the expressed (1) eliminate poverty and hunger
aspirations in the light of the COVID-19 pandemic (2) ensure improved wellbeing of Filipinos (wellbeing here is
(including the post-pandemic period 10 years the state of being happy, comfortable, and healthy)
hence) until the mid-century year 2050? (3) foster innovation
2. What socio-cultural, technological, economic, (1) growing poverty and hunger
environmental, and political megatrends, both (2) climate change and deepening environment risks
global and local, should be considered in this (3) growing inequality
foresight exercise?
3. What uncertainties, black swans or disruptions (1) recovery from globally disruptive events such as
do you expect as we journey 2050? pandemics and armed conflicts
(2) acute climate event came in second
(3) sustainability of STI interventions.
4. Are there additional areas that we need to No additional areas for consideration.
consider for this STI Foresight?
5. What do you perceive as the current areas of (1) marine science
excellence/strength in STI (including the social (2) rice science and technology
sciences) in the Philippines? (3) major export crops
6. What additional areas of excellence/strength (1) regional center of agricultural biotechnology research,
would you want the Philippine STI (including the development, and innovation
social sciences) to be leading global or regional (2) leading global center of excellence in marine science
centers by 2050? (3) leading global center in disaster risk management
7. What public and private institutional or (1) improve the quality of STEM instruction in K-12
organizational changes should take place to (2) improve the quality of instruction at the undergraduate
enhance the role of STI in development and in the level in Philippine HEIs
daily lives of the Filipinos? (e.g., Public-Private (3) science literacy program development and
Partnership in R&D, reorganization of DOST, institutionalization
STEM instruction in K-12, etc.)
8. What measures should be taken to improve the (1) create attractive, regular, and stable employment
quality and quantity of talent development and opportunities for highly trained STI workers in the public
retention in STI? and private sector
(2) improve the ecosystem for the conduct of R&D in the
Philippines
(3) expand incentives for the Philippines to be attractive
to knowledge workers (local and foreign) including
formulation of appropriate immigration policies and review
of relevant existing laws.
9. How can STI be harnessed to assert our All of the following should be done concerning the Philippine
sovereignty and identity as a maritime nation? seas: publish, popularize and widely disseminate a scientifically
designed map showing the maritime territorial limits of the
Philippines; expand surveillance capability of the Philippine
Coast Guard; initiate wider exploration of the Philippine
territorial waters; support R&D; and collaborate with other
countries in Asia.
10. What public investments and interventions in STI (1) ensure equitable access to nutritious and affordable food
can stimulate and shape technology to reduce (2) improve access to clean domestic water supply and
poverty or the conditions associated with poverty sanitation in rural areas and urban slums
by providing opportunities for those who are (3) design and implement resilient and efficient supply chains
living at the edge of subsistence?
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SECTION 6.2
INNOVATION ROADMAP
This Science, Technology, and Innovation (STI) Foresight culminates with the
STI Roadmap that reiterates cluster goals for the preferred future, science,
and technology (S&T) enablers, drivers, and opportunities. The roadmap is a
product of numerous National Academy of Science and Technology activities,
including technology forecasting (Salvacion 2020), Delphi survey, virtual
workshop on the scenario planning, focus group discussions, technology
mapping, and iterations with the NAST Foresight Steering Committee.
The framework of the Integrated STI Roadmap consists of four parts (Figure
6.2_1) namely:
• Four innovation phases
• STI Clusters
• Science and technology enablers
• Drivers and opportunities
Preferred
Future for a
Prosperous,
Archipelagic,
Maritime
Nation
Figure 6.2_1. Integrated STI Roadmap
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The STI Roadmap
Innovation Phases
The four innovation phases start with the recovery period through the
Responsible Management of Pests and Diseases. As of this writing, the
COVID-19 pandemic continues to infect thousands and the African Swine Flu
has also infected significant numbers of the swine industry. Thus, the need to
harness the know-how from STI to contain the spread of variants of COVID-19
and other diseases that affect not only humans but also the sources of food
such as crops, livestock, poultry, and fisheries.
The recovery phase is then followed by the Revival of the Economy where
the inertia imposed by the pandemic is replaced by the momentum of
activities that will set the stage for the next innovation phase for High Growth
Development.
The third phase is characterized by the application of advanced technologies

to enhance economic growth and national well-being.
The fourth innovation phase is characterized as a Competitive Economy

marked by the entry of a good number of Philippine products and services in
the global market.
Due to uncertainties, risks, and shocks, including the black swans, that may
occur within the 30-year period of this foresight, no fixed timelines have been
indicated for the four innovation phases. The pace of development may differ
among the four clusters.
The goal of the STI Roadmap is for the Philippines to eventually become a
Prosperous, Archipelagic, Maritime Nation characterized by a society that is
inclusive, productive, sustainable, educated, and healthy.

Clusters
As indicated in the earlier parts of this Foresight, the six of the operational
areas have been grouped into four clusters based on their close relationships
in STI. The four clusters are:
• Environment and Climate Change
• Food, Nutrition, and Health
• Energy and Water
• Built Environments (Shelter, Transportation, and Other

Infrastructure)
The integrated futures within and across clusters were derived mainly from
the back casting discussions.
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Science and Technology Enablers

The S&T enablers include existing technologies and areas that serve as
backbones of successful STIs, such as science education, business and trade,
blue economy, and governance. These technologies and operational areas
provide the tools, and the know-how that will enable the socio-cultural,
technological, economic,environmental, and political factors to work
harmoniously towards national well-being.
Drivers and Opportunities

Uncertainties, risks, and shocks brought about by natural disasters and
human events are both drivers and opportunities for change. The pace of
the developments in each innovation phase will be determined by how well
Philippine society and its leaders have been able to discern, anticipate, and
manage disruption and/or the opportunities brought about by the social,
technological, economic, environmental, and political forces that emerge
during the period of this Foresight.
Environment, Climate Change, and Space

Exploration Cluster
While commonalities could be observed in the maps, goals are unique, and
some S&T enablers, drivers, and opportunities are inherent in a particular
cluster.
For the Environment and Climate Change cluster (Figure 6.2_2), the initial
goal for the recovery period is to effectively manage COVID-19 and other pests
and diseases including those that affect food crops, livestock, poultry, and
fisheries. This is necessary for the cluster to achieve an agile and competitive
circular economy. It is anticipated that the act of balancing between
development and protection of the environment/resources will become more
challenging as more people compete for survival, livelihood, and economic
gains.
Drivers for this cluster include natural disasters like floods, landslides, and
tsunamis from seismic events or typhoons with heavy precipitation and
strong winds. Other land- and marine-based disasters such as outbreak of
diseases in humans, plants, and animals that may be influenced by climate
change related phenomena like prolonged El Niño and La Niña, rise in land
and sea surface temperature, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. Land
and marine pollution are generally anthropogenic and inter-related whose
negative impacts are exacerbated by climate change.
At the local or national level, opportunities include industrialization with

accompanying infrastructure and technological development and utilization
in the areas of agriculture, aquaculture, and fisheries. Long term terrestrial
and marine space mapping and promotion should be embedded with
coordinated hazard and risk management of an STI enabled integrated
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THE SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND INNOVATION ROADMAP
ecosystems framework. The establishment of the Philippine Space

Agency (PhilSA), is a significant STI enabler and influencer on both the
protection of the environment and biodiversity resources and utilization for
competitiveness.
Figure 6.2_2. Environment, Climate Change, and Space Exploration Cluster Map
Philippine demography and population health and well-being will weigh

heavily on the progress of this cluster. Poverty incidence, if not curbed or
stopped significantly can continuously negatively impact the environment/
resources particularly, in the area of pollution. Filipino values like the
bayanihan spirit nationalism/love of country of our forefathers and our
indigenous tribes“oneness with nature”should be harnessed formally and
informally especially among the youth. Effective science communication
must be pursued.
At the regional and global level, climate change issues and management
will continue to be a major influencer on the environment and biodiversity.
Regional and global agreements and guidelines on manufacturing, business
and trade, among others, will be guided by climate change management and
carbon footprints and credits. The Philippines should be able to participate
well and effectively in the consultation and discussions of these S&T issues at
the regional and global arena using“science diplomacy”and“diplomacy for
science”with the present interests and future of the nation as priority.
S&T enablers in this cluster are related to the other clusters but with focus
on specific needs and advancements in the areas of environment, climate
change, and space exploration. Biotechnology and nanotechnology are
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useful for innovations on multi-sensor and robotics/autonomous systems

development. Information and communications technology will empower
all aspects of operations in the cluster together with big data analytics and
artificial intelligence. Terrestrial and marine integrated spatial planning and
ecosystems management should be embedded with disaster management
and technologies for early warning and mitigation. Applications (Apps) for
technical and other stakeholders’use in disaster prevention and mitigation
should be further enhanced. The Department of Science and Technology’s
GeoRisk Philippines that identifies landslide prone areas should be expanded
to include other hazards and risks. The PhilSA should be strengthened with
financial, infrastructure, and manpower support to enable the agency to
perform its various roles in the protection and utilization of the environment
and resources and climate change related problems of the country,
navigation, and national security.
The overarching enablers for this and the other clusters should be the results
of interlinked STI. Science education and talent retention to power up this
cluster is in its infancy stage, including informal education. Governance of
the environment and climate change impacts and use of space technology/
apps from the local/lowest level to the national level should be embedded in
a vision of a“reinvented STI ecosystem”where currently, decision making is
fragmented. The Business and Trade sector should be STI-equipped to meet
local and global needs and opportunities in this cluster, and its plan of actions
should include short and long term effects to the environment and climate
change impacts.
A game changing enabler is the blue economy platform. It espouses the

inclusive growth of the population through the sustainable use of living and
non-living resources and protection of coastal and marine environments. A
circular economy with production-consumption rate balanced estimate is
vital in a competitive, inclusive, and sustainable maritime nation.
The cluster road map does not show years to delineate the different stages
towards the end of the road or goal. This is to encourage the hastened but
careful and coordinated analysis, planning and implementation of actions to
reach every stage in the least possible time while considering the interactions
and interrelationships with the other operational areas/clusters. The first
stage in the map is called the“COVID pandemic, and other risks responsively
managed”,an ongoing period where effective “survival” adaptations in this
highly disruptive stage are critical to enable us to proceed to the next stage .
The second stage is called“circular economy with anticipatory disaster risk
management”The third stage should also overlap or integrate early with the
previous stage and this is called“ agile and competitive circular economy.”
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Food, Nutrition, and Health Cluster

For the Food, Nutrition, and Health Cluster (Figure 6.2_3), the initial goal is
similar to the Environment, Climate Change, and Space Exploration and the
Built Environments clusters. This is followed by policy reforms in health and
agriculture, revitalized government institutions, inclusive precision health
and agriculture, and universal health care and food security.
Technology Change
Figure 6.2_3. Food, Nutrition, and Health Cluster Map
The indicators used to measure poverty are based on counting the

“individuals and families whose income fall below the poverty threshold
as defined by NEDA and/or cannot afford in a sustained manner to provide
their minimum basic needs of food, health, education, housing, and other
essential amenities of life”all of which are embodied in RA 8425 (Mapa 2020).
Thus, concerns about food, nutrition, and health are paramount in the quest
towards poverty elimination.
The scenario for Food, Nutrition, and Health from 2021 to 2050 spans a period
of close to 30 years towards a food secure nation that enjoys full benefits of
universal health care both of which are critical to attain the goal of being a
prosperous, archipelagic, maritime nation and being the healthiest nation in
the world.
The role of agriculture in improving the status of health and nutrition of

our country has not been fully realized. According to Fan (2011) agricultural
growth should consider its impact on health and nutrition by devising
strategies that will“minimize risks and maximize the benefits to nutrition and
health across the entire value chain, from production to consumption.”
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This scenario starts in the COVID-19 pandemic setting that has caused
widespread suffering across sectors and countries including the economic
downturn that has increased those experiencing hunger and poverty. Thus,
the challenge is for science, technology, and innovation to provide the tools
to responsibly manage the incidence of pests and diseases in humans and in
animals and plants with high economic value and at the same time, set the
stage for the revival of the economy, followed by improvement in productivity
to create new wealth in a sustainable manner.
Living systems are the pillars of agriculture and health. The state of the living
systems is in turn affected by the materials obtained by the organism to
provide the structure and energy to sustain the processes to keep the living
systems functioning within the influence of the environment. In addition to
the traditional disciplines of systematics, physiology, anatomy, morphology,
microbiology, virology, evolution, among others, S&T have progressed in
the last two decades to provide the basic tools to better understand life’s
processes such as:
• Genomics
• Structural Genomics
• Functional Genomics
• Transcriptomics
• Proteomics
• Metabolomics
• Structural Biology
• Synthetic Biology
• Pharmacogenomics
• Pharmacogenetics
• Nutraceuticals
• Nutrigenomics
• Nutrigenetics
• High Speed, high-capacity chemometric methods
• High Speed, high-capacity computing
• Computational biology
• Quantum biology
• Quantitative biology
• Internet of Things (IoT)
• Sensors
• Big Data
• Artificial intelligence (AI)
• Nanotechnology and new materials
• Phenomics
• Autonomous Systems and Robotics
• Structure and Function of novel molecules
• Sociology
• Anthropology
Access and expertise in the above disciplines and their accompanying

research techniques allow us to see more, detect more, and sense more in
order to provide greater insights and in-depth approaches to innovate.
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Innovation Stage I: Responsible Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic

and other Pests and Diseases Affecting Human, Livestock and Poultry,
and Food Crops
The starting point of this scenario is in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic,
accompanied by the infection of a significant part of the local swine industry
by the African Swine Fever and isolated instances of Bird Flu, a poultry
disease which can affect humans. The severity of the impact of the COVID-19
pandemic has disrupted the supply chain and dampened the demand in both
the agriculture and health sectors.
Observers consider the COVID-19 pandemic mainly as a health problem and

the challenge has been to balance the need to contain the spread and to
continue whatever economic activity may be possible. The weaknesses of the
health care delivery system in the public and private sector in the Philippine
have been exposed and interventions had to be undertaken with urgency to
reduce morbidity and mortality. The science community, especially in the
health and life sciences, provided science-based advice as they were able,
and the lack of expertise and facilities in human vaccine production was
apparent. The establishment of the information infrastructure to monitor the
spread of COVID-19 infection proceeded quite slowly and was often overtaken
by events. During the recent outbreak, many COVID-19 patients found it
difficult to gain admission to hospitals, and the health care workers found
themselves overworked.
The challenge has been the need to balance the protection of the
population’s health and the economy. This is to be based on a robust
surveillance system, as detailed as possible, by using digital technology
(information and communication technology) to establish the information
infrastructure that will monitor food safety and supply and the ability of our
health care delivery system to respond to the pandemic.
Traditional food supply chains became vulnerable to supply fluctuations due

to disruptions in storage, transportation and services. Similarly, the health
care delivery system had to try its best to manage the situation in the light of
the constraints.
Information about the extent of the infection, whether they be in humans,

livestock and poultry and food crops, is crucial in designing interventions
to prevent the further spread of the pest or pathogen. In addition to the
surveillance system which consists of testing, contact tracing, and physical
facilities for isolation and quarantine, the use of scientific tools to identify
the pathogen or the pest, to treat infected persons, livestock and poultry and
food crops, to determine the containment measures and the right treatment
using social mechanisms, physical barriers, drugs, chemical compounds and
devices. These present opportunities to develop the know-how and innovate
in response to the needs of the times.
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Research and development activities have not been exempt from the
disruptions caused by COVID-19. Likewise, the educational system has been
confronted with the possible loss of learning at all levels. Delays in R&D
activities and localized infestation by pests and diseases in the agriculture
and health sector has imposed additional constraints in attaining food
security.
Innovation Stage II: Reviving the Economy: Policy Reforms in Health and
Agriculture, Revitalized Institutions and Government Agencies
This innovation stage will revive and consolidate the gains achieved before
the pandemic. Previous initiatives that have been disrupted in various
ways will be reviewed and those that will lay the ground for a high-growth
development will be set in motion.
The COVID-19 pandemic is believed to be an opportune tipping point to revive

the economy towards our preferred future. The role of the agriculture and
health sector will be vital to this effort because a workforce that has access to
nutritious food and universal health care will be able to make the difference
in reviving the economy using the tools of S&T. At this transition period, we
expect to free ourselves from the constraints imposed by the pandemic and
start mobilizing the population. This time, there will be new modes of social
interaction among co-workers within an institution. Precautions will still have
to be taken to prevent a resurgence of a pandemic or even an epidemic. The
supply chain for goods and services will be revived to pre-pandemic capacity
gradually.
The magnitude of the challenges that have to be managed can be gleaned

from the population figures. As of the early part of April 2021, the World
Population Review (2021) reports the Philippine population at 110,729,412
and projected to reach 144,488,158 by 2050, increasing at an annual rate
of 1.39%, at one birth every 14 seconds. The population figures alone are
daunting both in terms of coping with the food supply and the health care
facilities. The increase in population will put pressure on our food supplies,
educational facilities, and the health care delivery system to serve more than
7,000 islands and a vast maritime territory (World Population Review 2021).
Both our food system and health care system will have to be transformed
after COVID-19. The features of an ideal food system are as follows
(International Food Policy Research Institute 2021):
• Efficient – provide incentives and remove hurdles to deliver

efficiencies in the supply chain
• Contribute to global health – provide affordable, nutritious foods,
and guarding food safety
• Inclusive of small holder farmers and marginalized groups such as
women, youth, the landless and refugees and displaced people
• Environmentally sustainable using technological innovations and
governance approaches to conserve and protect natural resources
and mitigate climate change
241
• Resilient – able to bounce back quickly from health, climate, and

economic shocks, providing poor household with stable livelihoods
that protect them from shocks
Reviving the economy is not just a mere reversion to pre-pandemic conditions.

The revival stage must lay the ground for the transformation into a high growth
development where opportunities to create new wealth will be open to all
sectors of the population. This is the time to identify growth points by a careful
and rigorous reading of both the domestic and global market for new and next
generation products in food and health, especially those derived from marine
sources. A sharpened focus on high value-added products in agriculture and
the enhancement of health care services should now be initiated to set the
stage for high growth development.
Furthermore, attention should be given to promote urban agriculture in the

major urban centers in the Philippines such as Metro Manila, Metro Cebu,
Davao City, Cagayan de Oro City, and Zamboanga City.
In addition to enhancing the nutritive content of food crops, the global market
for plant-based ethnic food, flavors, spices, colorants, essences and drugs and
other non-food products from plants and microbial sources must be explored
and next generation products should be developed.
On the enhancement of health care delivery, the rational development

must now be initiated to improve the carrying capacity of our health
care system towards providing universal health care to an archipelagic
and maritime nation. The activities should commence to further the
application of technologies in IoT to monitor patients and status of health
in communities, the use of big data and AI to analyze and gain insights on
the efficiency and efficacy of measures leading to universal health care, the
use of nanotechnology and new materials for medical products and devices,
biotechnology to understand the nature of infectious and non-communicable
disease, and the use of robotics as caregivers and delivery of treatment for
infectious diseases. These are just a few examples of the vast opportunities to
lay the ground for a high growth development agenda.
Innovation Stage III: High Growth Development: Inclusive Precision Health

and Precision Agriculture
This stage shall involve a technology explicit agenda to develop a prosperous

economy by creating new wealth with a highly skilled workforce, the outcomes
of which are enjoyed all over the archipelago and fully cognizant of our
maritime resource base. The following shall be the basis of the development
agenda:
• Recruitment of talented, ingenious, and adaptive workforce – access

to high-quality education in the Philippines and abroad; recruit talent
from global market
• Economic efficiency-reliable supply of energy, efficient transport
system, healthy workforce, provision of a reliable supply chain
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especially for essential goods and services, all consistent with a

circular economy
• Trade facilitation – major player in the global biocommerce market,
functional national quality infrastructure, upgraded products in the
services sector
• Food security – access to affordable, nutritious food, well-managed
farms
• Environmental protection – establish the components of the circular
economy through well-designed systems in the agriculture, industry
and services sectors to minimize wastage and air, water, and land
pollution, including functional recycling of wastes and obsolete
materials
• Disaster risk management- all human settlements deployed in areas
of low risk to natural disasters and
• Technology for national defense – increase investments in R&D of
technologies related to national defense and national security. This
includes the continuing issuance of the national identification card,
surveillance of national territory against foreign aggression and
illegal operations (logging, smuggling, etc.) and attract investments
in a defense industry.
High growth development will depend on connecting and engaging the

elements of the archipelago, the intensification of efforts to harness the
maritime resources, and access to new knowledge through S&T. At this point,
the population of the Philippines shall have increased to around 130 million
and the Industrial Revolution 4.0 shall have transformed nations to deal with
highly technological societies.
The Philippines shall now have sorted out the food-nutrition-health nexus
and the nutritional status of the population shall have been improved
considerably with stunting and malnutrition significantly diminished. The
commitments of the Philippines in the targets set in the SDGs related to
food and agriculture and the Climate Change Agreements shall have been
accomplished.
At this point the manufacturing sector for high valued products, especially
in the biocommerce market, shall be fully activated and fully coordinated
with the raw material supply chain coming from agriculture and maritime
resources. Likewise, the installation of clean energy sources shall be nearing
full-national coverage and the cost of energy shall have gone down. Farms
shall have been consolidated and operated profitably. The services sector
such as tourism, health care, business process operations, and other new
business prospects shall be efficiently operated.
Innovation Stage IV: Competitive Economy: Universal Health Care and

Food Security
The capacity to extract, characterize, purify, and define the composition

of raw materials and products in agriculture and health, especially from
maritime and archipelagic sources, shall have been established within the
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Philippines. This is expected to be the most significant contribution of S&T

in gaining the advantage so vital is a competitive economy. The in-depth
knowledge gained about these raw materials and products is the very
foundation of a resilient and agile society allowing all sectors to plan on a
roadmap to take remedial steps to get out of the rut or to minimize the effect
of the disruptive forces that have inhibited or slowed down growth. Agility
and resilience shall be the defining factor of a competitive economy in the
midst of many risks and uncertainties and the frequent incidence of black
swans or unexpected events. In other words, the reliability of the supply chain
shall be a determining factor in sustaining business.
This stage shall see the manufacture of next generation products processed
from marine sources: new, rapidly biodegradable materials, nutritious food,
drugs, cosmetics, new biomaterials, etc. The intensified efforts in the search
for unusual microorganisms shall bear fruit in terms of new biomaterials, new
bioprocessing agents (heat-tolerant, minimal product feedback inhibition),
new molecules, new reliable detection techniques for infectious microbial
agents in human, livestock and poultry, and food crops. Furthermore, the
features of an ideal food system shall have been substantially realized.
By 2050, governance shall be transformed to fit the mode of production

of new wealth. The human resource and workforce will now be skilled to
manage advanced technologies. Decisions shall be science-based taking into
consideration the welfare of close to 150 million Filipinos whose nourishment
and health must be assured. This will require massive resources that will
be derived from new wealth, enhanced by the sustainable exploitation
of maritime resources and the increased efficiency in the transformation
of agricultural, maritime, and microbially-based products into profitable
business ventures able to survive competition in the global biocommerce
market and in the provision of health care services not only for the Filipinos
but for patients coming from the region as well.
The Philippines will benefit from a healthcare ecosystem that maximizes

value by empowering the patients, the providers, the social health insurance
and the commercial insurance to achieve synergy through efficient
governance and technology.
The proposed stages and timelines for tasks where STI will provide major
inputs are in Figure 6.2_2.
A significant increase in the per capita GDP income shall have been achieved
through an inclusive development strategy that considers our archipelagic
and maritime resources as the platform. The survival, security and enabling
needs of the Filipino people shall have been substantially provided and
poverty levels shall be one of the lowest in the world.
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Table 6.2_1. Proposed Phased Development of STI in Food, Nutrition, and Health
Themes 2021-2022 2022-2028 2028-2034 2034-2040 2040-2046
Policy Review of Address issues resulting Establishment of (none Whole of nation
existing from increased number a model healthy indicated) approach to
policies, of working women community as proof-of- population
legislative concept and basis for management
action, and Multisectoral scaling up changes
laws that institutionalization of
negate the “health in all” policy Model community linked
health for approach. with Bidani (Nutrition
all communities)
Information Aggressive campaign Promotion of healthy Education for

Education against fast food eating fast food through children-should be
Communication habits adoption of Japanese digital in the form
Campaign “Bento” of games/Digital
Aggressive government delivery of content/
intervention in shaping message appropriate
the diet of people and to the current
children (i.e., feeding audience facilitated
program, disasters, etc.) by ICT and Artificial
intelligence
Food production Intensify Improvement of Online fresh produce/ Technology market
and delivery production agricultural product market (expansion for food, nutrition,
system of delivery system and increased use) of and health – similar
vegetables e-Kadiwa to electricity market,
and fruits Government to mediate incentivized and
a better distribution Strengthen LGU’s role in made competitive to
system through farm to market – provide lower the costs
incentives seedlings for free; buyer
of the produce (LGU will
Incentivize backyard commit to buy produce;
farming and farming in provide transportation to
general the market; identify the
market
Real farm to market

distribution in place
(removal of middleman;
can be replaced by
government)
Healthy Lifestyle Create an environment Personalized diet
supportive to sustain prescribed and
healthy lifestyle connected to the food
distribution systems
Caloric labelling of fast
food products as guide
for healthier living
Incentivize healthy food

and impose sin tax on
fast food
Food menu reviewed
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Themes 2021-2022 2022-2028 2028-2034 2034-2040 2040-2046

Technology Innovation in Online fresh produce/ Education for
infrastructure and market (expansion children-should be
physical sete-up for and increased use) of digital in the form
health and food systems e-Kadiwa of games / Digital
delivery of content/
Personalized diet message appropriate
prescribed and to the current
connected to the food audience facilitated
distribution systems by Information and
Communications
Comprehensive health Technology (ICT) AI
insurance system in
place Technology market
for food, nutrition
e-finance (financing and health – similar
technology in the health to electricity market,
sector) incentivized and
made competitive to
lower the costs.
2046-2050
Filipinos
healthiest in
the world
Energy and Water Cluster

The recovery stage from the pandemic of the Energy and Water cluster aims
for the provision of water and energy in off-grid areas. Risks from other
natural and man-made disasters should be managed responsibly at this
stage. By the second stage, unhampered supply of safe water and energy
should be achieved. These resources should be calculated and maintained
based on island or regional space planning and implementation. This
is critical for transition to the next stage. The third stage,“Sustainable
Consumption and Production”builds on the gains of the first two stages
through the RDIs for effective clean technologies for water and energy
sourcing, storage, and distribution. In this stage, reliance on water and
energy supply should consider cybersecurity since these technologies and
processes will need ICT and IoT. The fourth stage is geared towards“Universal
Access and Security”scenario that can be reached when the drivers and
opportunities unique to the cluster are managed harmoniously.
Considering the natural features of the country, the major drivers and
opportunities in this cluster are shared with the other clusters, particularly
the Environment, Climate Change and Space Exploration cluster, e.g., Seismic
events and seasonal typhoons, exacerbated by climate change. Thus, floods
and droughts can be experienced in different parts of the country. Local or
regional planning and implementation for production and consumption rates
are needed for both water and energy. Outbreaks of diseases in humans and
other living organisms can be offshoots of water and energy problems such as
in prolonged EL Niño and La Niña. Pollution from the land into the freshwater
and marine waters constitute the significant threat to water safety. Physical
changes in the watershed such as deforestation will negatively affect water
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Socio-economic drivers and opportunities also include population/

demography changes and the shift in needs for water and energy coming
from urbanization and economic growth. Planning and implementation
should address uneven capacity of production-consumption rates and
affordability at the local and regional levels. Independence of islands or
regions in production capacity can result to overproduction in one and
underproduction in another. Thus, measures must be undertaken to allow
access to water resources at the inter-island or inter-region level.
At present and in the next few years the Philippines would have to make
do with conventional technologies or enablers that will hopefully leapfrog
to locally produced or adopted clean technologies soon. Available
clean technologies for water and energy have been mostly developed in
industrialized countries. To meet the present and future requirements of
the country some of these clean technologies could be acquired via foreign
direct investment, imports, and licensing arrangements. Further, these
technology transfers involve importation of hardware and software, sharing
of knowledge, and adaptation of technologies to local conditions. Tax
incentives and other financial/economic support for business/industry or
Public-Private Partnership or other future business/investment models are
prerequisites to facilitate development of water and energy sectors. The“rule
of law”should prevail in the access and distribution and water particularly in
the underserved and unserved areas. Formal and informal science education
from the earliest years could provide marked positive influences not only in
the increase of S&T manpower but assist in making the Filipinos“science
cultured”and“sustainability conscious.”
Maintaining domestic water quantity and quality using indigenous

technologies like rain harvesting can be enhanced by innovations in proper
collection and storage. Local communities should be made aware of climate
changes affecting the timing and amount of rainfall the excess of which can
also result in flooding. Establishment and proper maintenance of water
reservoirs in strategic places for domestic, irrigation, and electric generation
should be given priority. Likewise continued improvements and wide use of
locally available clean technologies for energy such as solar and wind energy
should be supported based on a framework/space mapping that considers
local hazards and risks.
Precision agriculture/aquaculture using an array of sensors linked with

real time sensors for water quality and quantity would be a great boost
to the sustainability and resilience of water supply. Biotechnology and
nanotechnology will enable the development of these sensors and renewable
energy. The development of manpower and infrastructure in this cluster
should also be closely linked with the other clusters since the requirements
for water and energy are universal and important in a circular competitive
economy where wasteful and duplicating processes are minimized or
removed.
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The Blue Economy platform will play a pivotal role in this cluster and other
clusters towards the achievement of“a prosperous, archipelagic, maritime
nation”that is inclusive, sustainable, and competitive with healthy and
productive citizens. The approach has dual objectives which are: the
sustainable utilization of both living and non-living marine resources and the
inclusive development of the people. The immense impact of the approach
to coastal and oceanic transport, energy, sustainable tourism, fisheries and
aquaculture/food security, habitat (land and water) protection, water supply
(desalination) should be realized through a strategic/aggressive, whole-of
government approach. A critical review of existing laws, policies and practices
for appropriate revisions and/or simplification in support of the Philippine
blue economy has to involve key representatives from maritime law and
enforcement, marine science and education, maritime and other related
businesses, and national security, among others.
Figure 6.2_4. Energy and Water Cluster Map
Built Environments Cluster

As mentioned earlier in this report, the indicators used to measure poverty
are based on counting the“individuals and families whose income fall
below the poverty threshold as defined by NEDA and/or cannot afford in a
sustained manner to provide their minimum basic needs of food, health,
education, housing, and other essential amenities of life”(Mapa 2020). Based
on the Family Income and Expenditure Survey in 2000, 2003, 2006 and 2009,
the average percentage of the minimum income that is spent for non-food
needs is only about 30% including expenses for housing, transportation, and
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communications. About 70% is spent for food (Mapa 2020). Thus, to enable
communities to enjoy healthful, safe, and pleasant living conditions, concerns
the provision for shelter and infrastructure must be addressed if we are to
significantly reduce the incidence of poverty in the country. These concerns
are embodied in RA 8425.
The initial setting of the Built Environments cluster (Figure 6.2_5) is the
COVID-19 pandemic that has caused widespread suffering in all sectors and
in all countries and exposed in a more pronounced manner, the weaknesses,
and inequalities that have been lurking in our midst for many decades.
Figure 6.2_5. Built Environments Cluster Map
The challenge is for STI to provide the tools to responsibly manage the
incidence of pests and diseases in humans, livestock, and poultry and in
the food crops. The containment of the spread of these diseases should
set the stage for the revival of the economy, followed by improvements in
productivity to create new wealth in a sustainable manner. However, the
water and power provision will be discussed in the scenario on water and
energy.
Provision for safe and comfortable shelter engenders a sense of security for
the Filipino family, whether they reside in urban or rural settings located
inland or along the coasts. Likewise, civil infrastructure and transportation
are critical factors in achieving economic efficiency, trade facilitation,
and effective governance. This scenario will take into account the unique
archipelagic and maritime features of the Philippines.
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Civil infrastructure systems provide the lifeline of society. Human activities

are supported by civil infrastructure systems or built environments that are
managed, designed, and analyzed using the S&T tools. Civil infrastructure
systems extend beyond civil engineering in order to construct safe and
comfortable shelters in urban and rural settings, support economic activities
and enable social interaction. Civil infrastructure systems deal with how
the different built environments function together including electric
power, fuel supply, water and wastewater distribution and management,
communications, transportation, waste disposal, and shelter in urban and
rural communities located inland or along the coasts and will harness the
following STI areas:
• Engineering: civil, mechanical, electrical, chemical, sanitary,

electronics
• Architecture
• Urban planning
• Sociology
• Chemistry
• Physics
• Biology
• IOT - detection of phenomenon using sensors, sending signals and
responses, generating data for analysis
• Big Data - tools to measure massive amounts of data to gain insights,
see patterns, and analyze e.g disaster risk management
• AI - attempt to migrate intelligence to machines, may trigger changes
in modes of production, mindsets, and means of achieving social
productivity
• New materials and nanotechnology - discovery of unique physical
and biological properties of nano-scale matter with wide application
in medicine , environment,energy, etc.
• Autonomous systems - automated vehicles, drones, robots
• Biotechnology - redesigning organisms to produce substances of
economic value such as fuels, medicines, easily biodegradable
biomaterials
• Structural dynamics design
• Resilience engineering
• Sensors
• Geographic information systems
• Spatial analysis
• Transportation systems
• Statistics
• Environmental science
Innovation Stage I: Responsible COVID-19 and Other Pests and Diseases

Management - The Role of Built Environments and Digital Transformation
This innovation stage will operate in the COVID-19 pandemic setting. The
challenge for the present is for built environments or civil infrastructure to
mitigate the spread of COVID-19, as well as other pests and diseases that
affect agriculture. Thus, the urgent task is to design and construct permanent
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or temporary built environments to support the timely containment and

treatment of infectious diseases with the assurance that these public
infrastructures are also safe for use during pandemics or natural disasters.
This includes the retrofitting of rooms and grounds in schools so that students
can attend school safely, the upgrading of hospital facilities, instituting
measures in public transport and public places to enable compliance
with physical distancing requirements. Due to restrictions in movement,
it is also important to maintain the reliability of communications such as
high-speed broadband to avoid disruption of transactions. Furthermore,
wastewater disposal will be an important intervention to prevent the spread
of infection and contamination. Currently, the Philippine government with
the contribution of the private sector, is engaged in constructing additional
healthcare facilities that comply with global standards.
A major effort will have to be initiated on the construction and retrofitting of

shelters including homes and office rooms as this will require a large capital
cost. Health protocols will have to be strictly observed in densely populated
communities to minimize congestion especially in areas where there are
many informal settlers living in single-room dwellings.
Observers note that the pandemic has hastened the adoption of technology-
based strategies, notably ICTs, to cope with the unexpected disruption
of activities (MIT 2021). The increase of online transactions, classes and
meetings lessens face-to-face contact in order to control the spread of
infection. Unfortunately, with large numbers of schools and business
establishments shifting to online transactions and activities, the wireless
telecommunications backbone has been unable to cope with the demand
for more bandwidths. While adjustments are ongoing, the changes will not
happen overnight.
During the pandemic, where lockdowns are frequently imposed, use of digital
technology tools for identification, contact tracing, data gathering, financial
transactions, and even the conduct of meetings has enabled the economy to
function and social interactions to proceed albeit in a reduced manner. These
tools should be made available to as many Filipinos as possible and access
to quality wireless communication should be pursued relentlessly using a
package of technologies.
The timely delivery of goods and services has been affected by the lockdowns
as the transport services have been constrained to considerable downsize
their operations. Moreover, the health protocols impose limits on the
passenger load of the public transport system. The impact of this slowdown
has been felt strongly by the micro, medium and small-scale enterprises and
productivity remains low in business establishments, farms, factories, and the
service sector.
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Innovation Stage II: Revived Economy: Anticipatory Elimination of

Backlogs
With the pandemic substantially controlled, this stage will revive and
consolidate the gains achieved before and during the pandemic and attend
to the backlog in the projects that have been delayed by the pandemic
and other reasons. Previous initiatives that have been disrupted in various
ways will be reviewed and those that will lay the ground for a high-growth
development especially where significant progress has been achieved in
the construction of vital infrastructure to enhance mobility and connect the
islands in the archipelago.
Digital Transformation
The groundwork for digital transformation shall be intensified. Digital

transformation”is the incorporation of modern technologies into an
organization’s processes and strategies to achieve business goals such as
improving customer outcomes or operational agility”(MIT 2020).
The opportunities for innovation and stepping up digital capabilities are as

follows (MIT 2020):
• Establishing a nationwide digital communications backbone that

would reach all the islands and remote communities. This is to
be coordinated with the energy sector with due consideration of
operating microgrids.
• Improving the conduct of online learning- reinventing the way we
learn
• Automating Manual Processes
• Accelerating Digital Capabilities of the citizenry
• Adopting a modern application development platform
• Using infrastructure or platform for IT security
• Expanding cloud services adoption
• Expanding agile and continuous-delivery methods
• Increasing investment in mobile applications
• Creating digital-first customer experiences
• Expanding application development teams
The digital transformation of Estonia is a model worth studying. After the

Soviet Union was dismantled, the government of Estonia focused investments
in digitalizing the public sector which allowed businesses to be registered and
operated online to avoid the long processes required by the bureaucracy. This
strategy generated jobs and tax revenue (Patricolo 2017; Pickup 2018).
It is expected that even after the restrictions of the pandemic have been
lifted, remote work will still be the major mode of delivery of outputs by the
workforce. The opportunities for innovation mentioned above are expected to
keep businesses afloat through secure online workflow, and the development
of continuous delivery applications for new products and services. These
interventions are expected to rebuild the economy and set the stage of higher
growth.
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Shipping
Being an archipelagic country, the Philippines counts on the maritime

industry to transport goods and services in both the domestic and global
market. Shipping provides the major links among the islands of the
archipelago. In a study made in 2006, water transport accounted for 42% of
the freight in the country and in 2012, carried 74 million tons of cargo and
50 million passengers. Thus, with the lifting the post-pandemic, there will
be opportunities to revive and improve maritime transport in the areas of
domestic shipping, overseas shipping, upgrading of maritime manpower,
shipbuilding and ship repair as well as the improvement and expansion of
port facilities in cargo handling and the cold chain to service 8,112 seafaring
vessels of various types that ply the Philippine seas (UN-ESCAP [date
unkown]).
Shelter and human settlements
Responding to the housing backlog will be a great challenge during the

recovery period. Increasing the production of houses at an affordable
cost may have to be subsidized for selected beneficiaries. This could be
complemented by mobilizing and generating financial resources to support
end-users. (Padojinog 2020). While there are ongoing projects to provide
housing for the low-cost segments, the backlog is still considerable at
5,880,630 units in 2015 inclusive of the socialized, economic, low, medium,
and high types but not including 786,984 units for those who cannot afford.
It is projected that by 2030, the total housing need will be 12.3 million units.
(Padojinog 2016)
The goal is for S&T to provide the knowledge to innovate so that the cost of
building houses/shelters will be affordable. This will involve the search for
new materials from renewable sources and the discovery of new technology
to produce cement with low carbon footprint. Furthermore, shelters should
be intelligently designed to withstand the increasing frequency of extreme
weather conditions and earthquakes. Highly populated living spaces such as
condominiums have to be designed to provide more open spaces.
About the design of communities, especially in urban areas, the provision

for walking, cycling and access to reliable and efficient public transport
system have to be taken into account such that people, rather than vehicles,
will be given priority for safe and healthy living. Furthermore, construction
activity must consider the use of materials with low carbon footprint. Mass
transport facilities and those the logistics to support the supply chain will
benefit from well-designed, well-built roads, bridges, ports, and airports. All
these to be carefully designed for resilience in the light of the occurrence of
typhoons, floods, drought, and earthquakes. The durability of the materials
used under tropical conditions must be subjected to tests and quality
assurance. Preparations must be undertaken to cope with the production and
maintenance of battery-powered electric vehicles.
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Innovation Stage III: High Growth Development: Adequacy in

Infrastructure and Mobility
The recovery phase has provided the foundation for high growth. Gains
in the digital transformation of the economy and in governance will have
established efficient systems of workflow. Efficiency will be the hallmark of
the third phase of innovation.
High growth initiatives in digital transformation shall consist of the following

including those cited earlier (MIT 2020):
• Sustained development of a nationwide digital communications

backbone that would reach all the islands and remote communities.
This is to be coordinated with the energy sector with due
consideration of operating microgrids
• Automating Manual Processes
• Accelerating Digital Capabilities of the citizenry
• Adopting a Software-defined network
• Accelerating cloud migration
• Adopting a modern application development platform
• Expanding a multi-cloud strategy
• Using infrastructure or platform for IT security
• Expanding cloud services adoption
• Expanding agile and continuous-delivery methods
• Increasing investment in mobile applications
• Creating digital-first customer experiences
• Instituting“secure-by-design”application development
• Adopting a“cloud-first”application policy
• Expanding application development team
These developments in the digitalization of the economy are expected

to accelerate the growth of agriculture, industry, and the services, with
innovations supported by a vigorous R&D program in government and the
private sector. The workforce shall deliver their outputs enthusiastically,
knowing fully-well that their minimum basic needs are seriously attended to
by the government and the private sector.
Backlog in housing, construction of ports, airports, road networks, and

bridges shall have been significantly corrected with technologies that have a
considerably lower carbon footprint.
This third phase of innovation will harness the highly trained critical mass of
the workforce to sustain the momentum gained in the recovery phase with
regard to shelter, transportation, and infrastructure. A maritime highway that
links every part of the archipelago will enhance the participation of more
communities in productive economic activities. Traffic flow of air, sea, and
land transport shall be professionally managed and considerably improved.
This maritime highway could possibly be linked with the proposed ASEAN
maritime highway that is highly connected by a series of ferries and roll-on-
roll-off transport mode.
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Satellite-based remote sensing technology will monitor in real time air

quality, water quality, population density, land use, food production, the
extent of damage during typhoons, floods, earthquakes, and many other
future applications.
Finally, trade shall have been facilitated by a digitally transformed work

environment with timely-access to information coupled with a globally-
accredited national quality infrastructure including internationally-
recognized testing laboratories.
Innovation Stage IV: Competitive Economy: Smart Communities
A competitive economy will thrive only where its workforce lives in

communities that are secure, safe and healthy, designed to be resilient to
natural disasters, climate change, pandemics, and various ecological crises.
By 2050, these communities, in urban and rural settings, coastal or inland,
should protect people’s lives, sustain development gains, and drive positive
change towards a future that is inclusive and prosperous. Smart communities
have strong emergency response capacities in the form of support for
planning, governance, capacity-building, funding, continuity of business, and
delivery of services (Global Forum on Human Settlements 2020).
Smart communities are nature positive and climate-friendly, able to promote

healthy lifestyles by strengthening the communication between stakeholders
and government especially in the collection and analysis of data that will
be the basis of important decisions. Food supply is critical and must not be
disrupted even the times of economic downturns caused by pandemics and
ecological emergencies.
Natural disasters and health crisis affect people the most especially those in
coastal villages and the urban informal settlers. Thus, their living conditions
must satisfy the minimum basic needs including healthful and safe shelters,
reliable, secure, and well-maintained transport system and a sustainable civil
infrastructure providing power, water, and access to the supply chain through
strategically located roads and bridges.
A one-size-fits-all approach to the establishment of smart communities will

not work. Future oriented studies on smart communities should consider the
unique spatial (geographic and environmental) attributes, social, cultural,
and economic factors. This will require a multidisciplinary approach involving
S&T inputs, especially from the social sciences.
Smart communities must comply with the key principles of a circular

economy(Global Forum on Human Settlements 2020):
• waste and pollution to be designed out of products and the living

systems
• materials durable enough to be kept in use for as long as possible
• a regenerative surrounding natural system with adequate open
outdoor spaces
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These attributes are people-centered, sensitive to the mutual aspirations of

the stakeholders. Special mention is made for communities along the coasts
who derive their living from the ocean and aspire to live with the ocean in a
sustainable manner.
A competitive economy is derived from a resilient and agile future that is

dependent on S&T inputs to integrate people, water, nature, and the built
environments. These are constructed ecosystems reinvented to support the
well-being of all (Global Forum on Human Settlements 2020).
Towards an Integrated STI RoadMap

The integrated map (Figure 6.2_1), cognizant of the impact of the COVID-19
pandemic, combines all the clusters and their respective goals, from
responsive human, animal and plant pests and disease management to a
competitive economy. The progress of each cluster is determined by the
interplay of S&T enablers and drivers and opportunities. Achievement of
a competitive economy across clusters would bring the Philippines to its
preferred future for a prosperous, archipelagic maritime nation that supports
a technology-explicit development agenda that is inclusive and sustainable
and nurtures a citizenry that is educated, healthy, and productive.
Launching the Priority STI Interventions in

Support of an Archipelagic and Maritime
National Development Agenda
Here are some suggested initial priority activities to be started in the recovery
and revival phases of the STI roadmaps to consolidate and enhance the
gains in STI highlighting the need for an archipelagic and maritime oriented
national development agenda:
• Building a sustainable critical mass of STI human resources
◦ Develop, attract, and retain expertise in dealing with the unique

geographical features of the Philippine archipelago
◦ Develop, attract, and retain expertise in marine science and
related sciences
• Create the Philippine Council for Maritime, Marine and Aquatic
Resources Research and Development (separate from PCAARD)
• Develop a focused R&D and extension program in maritime and

marine sciences
◦ Shipbuilding and drydocking

◦ Transport Studies to achieve cost-effective efficiency
◦ Mapping
◦ Fisheries - modernization of fishing boats guided by GPS

towards rich fishing grounds
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◦ High valued products from biological resources from the sea

(drugs, food, food additives, cosmetics, flavors, colorants, etc.)
◦ Inventory of biodiversity of our oceans and the archipelagic land
mass
◦ Energy - wave, ocean thermal
◦ Mineral resources
◦ Desalination for domestic water use
◦ Pollution control
◦ Demographics, economic, and educational profile of coastal
village
◦ Pollution control and abatement especially of tourist spots
along the coast
◦ Reclamation studies
◦ Maritime safety and rescue system
• Develop a focused R&D and extension program to link and
characterize with precision the biotic and mineral resources of our
archipelagic land masses
◦ Inventory of biodiversity (flora and fauna)

◦ Inventory of mineral resources
◦ Expanding the nautical highways
◦ Deployment of ports and airports
◦ Land use planning
◦ Management of freshwater resources including pollution control
and abatement in the major waterways and lakes; collecting
rainwater
◦ Urban and rural human settlements planning
◦ Power distribution
◦ Telecom infrastructure
◦ Planned transport infrastructure to enhance correspondence
in schedule of air, land, and sea transport services
◦ Land degradation
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DIGITAL ARTWORK
Space Karakoa
Primary conceptual idea by Julius Sempio
The Philippines’scientists, engineers, and future astronauts will have vital

roles to play in the future of space exploration, as all the world’s nations
inexorably move to develop space science and technology to meet the needs
of the global population. The Philippines’abundance of natural, cultural, and
intellectual resources can serve to inspire and inform new technologies. Here
we envision a space station that resembles the karakoas of centuries past,
built through international cooperation using the expertise and knowhow of
Filipino space scientists and engineers.

SECTION 7
Ensuring Continuity
and Relevance
PERIODIC REVIEWS OF THE
FORESIGHT
Foresight as a long-term policy instrument merits regular review and updating

if it is to remain relevant to the times. Casssingena-Harper (2003) underscores
the importance of the foresight review process and the concerns to be
addressed:
“The foresight process involves intense iterative phases of open reflection,

networking, consultation, and discussion leading to the joint refining of
future visions and the common ownership of strategies, with the aim
of exploiting long-term opportunities opened up through the impact of
science, technology, and innovation (STI) on society… It is the discovery of a
common space for open thinking on the future and the incubation of strategic
approaches… in this sense the foresight process has no beginning or end,
since it builds on previous and ongoing conversations and consultations and
sets in motion learning curves and other intangible spin-offs which are not
easily captured in short timeframes…”
Three basic tenets for a rigorous evaluation of foresight have been proposed
(Georghiou 2003):
• Accountability - efficiency in the conduct of activities and proper

accounting of public funds
• Justification - whether the impact justifies the continuing conduct of

foresight
• Learning- improvements in the foresight process and scope
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Institutionalizing the Foresight System in

Other Countries
Various approaches have been used in the evaluation of national foresight
activities as follows (Public Service Foresight Network 2017; Georghiou 2003):
• Singapore: Centre for Strategic Futures in the Prime Minister’s Office

Strategy Group
• United Kingdom: Horizon Scanning Program in the Government

Office for Science
• Germany: Chancellor’s Office encourages and facilitates dialogue

Periodic Reviews of the Foresight 2040 and capacity-building; Futur
initiative
• France: Centre strategique in Prime Minister’s Office; several think

tanks
• Finland: Prime Minister’s Office conducts foresight studies and

coordinates foresight in departments
• Japan: National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP)
• Korea: Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)
• Australia: CSIRO has a ten-person foresight team
• Denmark: Prime Minister chairs a “Disruption Council” composed of

seven ministers and 32 stakeholders
• China: State Council and National Development and Reform

Commission
The different approaches are used by governments in the conduct of foresight

activities. The extent to which foresight is institutionalized differs presumably
due to the unique characteristics of their administrative culture, human, and
financial resources.
As discussed in previous sections, foresight is conducted to inform and

develop policy and influence the direction of the national innovation system.
Cassingena-Harper (2003) contends that the foresight activities involve
“the discovery of a common space for open thinking on the future and the
incubation of strategic approaches… in this sense the foresight process has
no beginning or end...” and therefore is in a continuing process of refinement.
Thus, the institutionalization of foresight must be seriously considered even

if such would proceed gradually into full integration in governance. The
refinement of vision and strategies is the core function of foresight and the
mechanism by which foresight can influence outcomes is by constant review
of the issues and concerns that have been anticipated and whether such have
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matched the current realities. The discernment of patterns trends, drivers,

science and technology frontier areas, uncertainties including the emergence
of black swans are vital to the formulation of resilient and agile response
modes.
Institutionalization of the Philippine

Foresight
In order for long-range plans like PAGTANAW 2050 to yield the desired results,
there must be continuity—this Philippine foresight spans three decades.
It must remain relevant and continue to provide both vision and guidance
across five Presidencies and the administrations that are part of these
changes in leadership.
For this to be possible, there must be STI foresight institute tasked solely with
the continuity and relevance of the initiatives detailed in this STI foresight,
one that will remain focused on the job despite upheavals in the political
environment, as well as in changes in government policies.
Such an STI foresight institute will, essentially, provide a steady base from
which policymakers and government functionaries may build the needed support
systems, infrastructure, and policies—as well as adjust the same when needed.
Pagtanaw 2050 must also provide a strong representation of all stakeholders in
the process of bringing this Foresight from planning to execution and evaluation,
and, as necessary, recalibration.
Each section and operational area of this Foresight deals with different
communities of stakeholders in vital areas, such as education, food security,
environmental matters, health care delivery, sociopolitical developments,
and so forth. Each segment of the STI foresight is inextricably bound to the
others— just as we are all, in some way, bound to each other as part of a
nation and the society within it.
Creating an institute to ensure the continuity of efforts to take this STI

foresight from the drawing board to the physical world will go a long way to
making certain that the goals and aspirations set to paper here will become
actual realities.
Such an institute will need full time core staff and harness the expertise of
the academe— including the scientists who have generously given their time,
expertise, and efforts to produce the work included in this Foresight.
An Advisory Committee to provide guidance to the STI foresight activities may

be organized with representation from ranks of stakeholders, policymakers,
and the communities that each foresight segment will affect, as well as
functionaries of government from agencies that will be part of the planning
and implementation of the initiatives proposed in this Foresight.
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Responsibilities of the STI foresight

institute
The institute would be responsible for, but not be limited to, the following:
• Providing timely anticipatory“intelligence”on the developments in

STI that are taking place locally and globally, the future challenges and
options as inputs to decision-making, policy formulation and budget
planning and implementation.
• Collaborating with foresight institutions in the Philippines and abroad to
gain awareness of trends and drivers of change
• Providing representation of the STI stakeholders, and strong two way
communication linkages between the committee and the communities
they represent.
• Developing ways and means—including existing ones—to engage the
people in public consultations, such as town hall discussions, of the
proposed initiatives in this STI Foresight.
• Studying how specific STI stakeholders (i.e., local government units,
schools, private sector establishments and organizations, government
agencies, government owned and controlled corporations) can
contribute to the projects and initiatives of the institute.
• Setting timelines for short-, medium-, and long-term goals like the United
Nations’Sustainable Development Goals that will serve as benchmarks
for progress of this Foresight and its resulting programs, initiatives, and
advocacies that will be designed based on it.
• Maintaining continuous documentation and record-keeping of processes,
initiatives, policies, and legislation that results from this Foresight,
as well as keep records of the implementation of the same for public
reference.
• Convening regularly to check the benchmarks for progress of the public
consultations on, implementation of and the results of initiatives
proposed under this Foresight.
• Engaging policymakers from government and the private sector in a
continuing conversation about STI foresight, its proposals, benchmarks,
and results so that the foresight initiatives will remain steadily on track
across the foresight timeline.
• Providing regular reports on the progress of this Foresight to the public
through media, social media, and other means at its disposal.
• Being available to all stakeholders so it may address any concerns over
the policymaking and implementation processes of STI foresight.
For continuity to be possible, the proposed STI foresight institute must be

insulated from the political upheavals that have disrupted the continuity
of other efforts by the government in the past. There can be no short-
term political agendas, nor big business manipulations of the institute for
continuity.
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Rather, the STI foresight institute must be the bedrock upon which this
Foresight will stand, that it might last the 30 years it projects. Instead of
being influenced by the erstwhile politics that will undoubtedly surround it,
the STI foresight should provide a strong framework into which efforts by
government at all levels, the private sector, industry, and communities can be
integrated.
The STI foresight institute will have set tenures for its core staff, and ensuring
their inclusion on the basis of their track records in their respective fields of
endeavor, to serve the best interests of the Filipino—and not any one group
of persons or organizations alone. There is much work to be done if we are to
take this Foresight and create the best possible benefit for our people, and
our nation. The institute that will oversee this work must be made up of the
best minds available and have both the drive and the integrity to see the work
through.
Foresight Lessons from Great Minds

Dr. Jose P. Rizal (1889) has observed that“[R]eforms which have a palliative
character are not only ineffectual but even prejudicial, when the government
is confronted with evils that must be cured radically. And were we not
convinced of the honesty and rectitude of some governors, we would be
tempted to say that all the partial reforms are only plasters and salves of a
physician who, not knowing how to cure the cancer, and not daring to root it
out, tries in this way to alleviate the patient’s sufferings or to temporize with
the cowardice of the timid and ignorant.”
The changes that must be made across this Foresight would rank among the
radical ideas that Rizal wrote about. This Foresight seeks more than“plasters
and salves”for the many things that ail our country that can be addressed
with science and technology—and any institution that will ensure the
continuity of the proposals recorded in this Foresight must have the“honesty
and rectitude”Rizal demanded then, for the work before it will be no less
difficult than that of a physician seeking to cure cancer in his or her patient.
The STI foresight institute and advisory committee must also be capable of
transcending the changes in the country’s political landscape and must be
impervious to the influence peddling those with vested interests can bring to
bear, should those vested interests clash with the interests of the nation and
its people.
As the National Artist for Literature Nick Joaquin (1966) points out:“An
honest reading of our history should rather force us to admit that it was the
colonial years that pushed us toward the larger effort. There was actually an
advance in freedom, for the unification of the land, the organization of towns
and provinces, and the influx of new ideas, started our liberation from the rule
of the petty, whether of clan, locality or custom.”Not everything learned from
centuries of existence as a colony is to be dismissed out of hand. Rather, if one
is to take the lessons of history objectively, then one stands to learn clearer
and more useful lessons.
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Joaquin underscores the need for better and stronger social organizations,
with more worthy goals than those common in the small tyrannical fiefdoms
our country has been engaged in for much too long. In both the manner of
writing this essay, and its content, Joaquin asks us to take a long, objective
look at the cultural and historical points he makes so that we can surpass the
heritage of smallness he sets down on paper.
Paul D. Hutchcroft and Joel Rocamora published their essay“Strong

Demands and Weak Institutions: The Origins and Evolution of the Democratic
Deficit in the Philippines”in the Journal of East Asian Economics (Hutchcroft
and Rocamora 2003). That piece unpacks the systematic problems that
explain weaknesses in the country’s governance systems that must be seen
and addressed:“Over more than a century—from the representational
structures of the Malolos republic of 1898 to the political tutelage of
American colonial rule, from the cacique democracy of the postwar republic
to the restoration of democracy in the People Power uprising of 1986—
Filipinos know both the promise of democracy and the problems of making
democratic structures work for the benefit of all. Some 100 years after the
introduction of national-level democratic institutions to the Philippines, the
sense of frustration over the character of the country’s democracy is arguably
more apparent than ever before.”
In their essay, Hutchcroft and Rocamora (2003) also wrote of the“capacity of

many elements of civil society to demand accountability and fairness from
their leaders”even as they pointed out“the continuing failure of democratic
structures to respond to the needs of the poor and excluded. Philippine
democracy is, indeed, in a state of crisis.”
Hutchcroft and Rocamora write that“[w]hen we speak of a‘crisis’of

Philippine democracy, it is important to emphasize that the fundamental
values of democracy continue to command broad respect from all sectors of
Philippine society. The crisis is manifested, rather, in a deepening frustration
over the inability of democratic institutions to deliver the goods, specifically
goods of a public character.”
The matters raised by Rizal, Joaquin, and Hutchcroft and Rocamora are all
things we must still take stock of as this Foresight’s proposals are considered
and put into practice, for they are still definite areas of concern in the society
where this Foresight will be put to use. We must go beyond simply being hurt
by the observations these four authors have made—we need to understand
exactly what they are saying so that these can guide us as we take action on
these weaknesses in our societal and governmental systems. That way, we
can make the changes that are necessary for the continuity of growth for our
country and our people using this Foresight.
The proposed institute for continuity, and our policymakers in whose hands
this Foresight sits, must consider the painfully sharp observations made in
these three essays as they decide how to move forward with this Foresight.
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FORESIGHTING EXERCISES WITH
ASEAN AND BEYOND
While each country benefits individually from foresight exercises within

their states and national borders, we live in a world where international
cooperation offers opportunities to accelerate growth and progress.
Harnessing science, technology and innovation on a regional level, such as

across the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), would facilitate
such work immensely. This would call for a good framework in diplomacy, as
well as science and technology, and in communications within and between
each member-state in the region. Such an effort especially by the proposed
STI foresight institute will take a multi-disciplinary approach that offers
benefit to all.
O’Doherty and others (2020) explain that such a process would:
• Inform policymaking so that key actors are more aware of

longerterm scenarios, are more prepared for different possibilities,
and able to recognize an emerging scenario and its wider
implications.
• Help build networks among the people centrally involved with

shaping the future. Bringing people together – perhaps virtually –
will facilitate collective sharing of visions and assessments of the
future, help understand challenges and opportunities, and provide a
basis for formulating strategies and objectives.
• Develop capabilities that shape a‘foresight culture’. This should

enable individuals and groups to define and embark upon more
detailed foresight activities and to forge their own foresight
networks.
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Vital Partnerships
The United Nations holds a similar view of international and regional
cooperation, especially in light of the COVID-19 pandemic:“Few countries
alone will be able to achieve the SDGs with business as usual”(UN IATT 2020).
In that guidebook, it is noted that“many countries are going to fall far short
of other goals as well,”and goes on to recommend that the“effective use
of STI may change the trajectory and accelerate progress toward the future
we want, particularly if developing countries are able to benefit more from
international partnerships.”
Pooled resources and shared burdens make the work of creating progress
and prosperity easier—especially among nations that share common
topographical, geographical and seasonal features, as well as cultural aspects
that help encourage cooperation. Shared interests—including but not limited
to regional security, food security, resource and environmental preservation,
the promotion of public health initiatives and educational initiatives—can
be given the manpower, resources and support they require if a healthy
exchange of expertise, learning, experiences, and understanding of these
things can be achieved within the ASEAN region.
Challenges
According to the guidebook, there are“a large number of both existing and
emerging technologies that present not only many opportunities but also
many challenges for developing countries,”including digital technologies
(such as the internet, artificial intelligence, robotics, remote sensing, big data
analytics, blockchain, 3-D printing), nanotechnology, new materials, and
biotechnology.”
Thus, the need for regular regional foresighting exercises among the ASEAN
member-states—exercises that will link the individual STI foresights of these
nations together along pathways that will help these member-states work
together so they can achieve their goals, individually and regionally, through
international cooperation and through linkages across their industries and
private sector groups.
Addressing Inequalities
To most effectively map out and engage in Foresighting with other nations,
especially our ASEAN neighbors, we need to understand the nature of the
inequalities that hamper our progress.
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report

(2020) stated that“rapid economic growth in emerging economies has fueled
the rise of a global middle class. Nevertheless, there is persistent poverty,
and rising inequality. Wealth is highly concentrated, and there are also
267
FORESIGHTING EXERCISES WITH ASEAN AND BEYOND
large disparities in income-earning opportunities, as well as in standards of

education and health. These imbalances constrain economic growth and
human development while heightening vulnerability, whether to pandemics,
or economic crises or climate change — and can soon destabilize societies.”
The matter of inequality, according to the UNCTAD report,“is also affected

by technological revolutions. Technological changes combine with
financial capital to create new techno-economic paradigms — the cluster
of technologies, products, industries, infrastructure and institutions that
characterize a technological revolution.”
A regional cooperation to enter into Foresighting exercises will go a long

way toward addressing such inequalities, and it will provide a better pool
of resources for the implementation of initiatives taken from their national
foresight exercises, as well as a regional foresight.
There is much common ground from which we can build a stronger region
by sharing resources and efforts to create the progress each nation needs.
Working together on a regional foresight endeavor would make good use of
these strategic advantages our nations enjoy. From there, we can build up to
making use of our learnings and experiences to building foresight exercises
with other nations and regional.
268
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CONCLUDING STATEMENTS
Progress towards a Prosperous, Archipelagic, Maritime Nation should not

remain a dream for the Philippines, with its rich natural and human resources.
However, such growth has stayed in that realm of wishful thinking for the
lack of continuity in government’s efforts for generations, as well as the
lack of systems that would enable—and encourage—Filipinos to participate
effectively and fully in such efforts.
Perhaps an explanation for this can be found in the work of National Artist
for Literature Nick Joaquin, who penned an essay titled“A Heritage of
Smallness”in 1966 under the nom de plume Quijano de Manila, where he
made several painful observations about the ways Filipinos put obstacles in
their own way (Joaquin 1966).
This excerpt from the essay Joaquin is apt, if hard to acknowledge:“The

barangays that came to the Philippines were small both in scope and size.
A barangay with a hundred households would already be enormous; some
barangays had only 30 families, or less. These, however, could have been
the seed of a great society if there had not been in that a fatal aversion
to synthesis. The barangay settlements already displayed a Philippine
characteristic: the tendency to petrify in isolation instead of consolidating, or
to split smaller instead of growing.”
Joaquin also wrote:“The depressing fact in Philippine history is what seems

to be our native aversion to the large venture, the big risk, the bold extensive
enterprise.”
In his essay, Joaquin noted:“We would deliberately limit ourselves to the

small performance. This attitude, an immemorial one, explains why we’re
finding it so hard to become a nation, and why our pagan forefathers could
not even imagine the task.”
This is a long-standing mindset among our people that must change if we

are to succeed in a world that is constantly disrupted by rapid technological
changes that provide fresh opportunities for growth.
269
CONCLUDING STATEMENTS
Why quote a National Artist for Literature in this Foresight if all he has to say is
critical of both the people we seek to serve and the government?
The keen eye of the journalist and writer Joaquin offers in his 1966 essay
provides us with valuable insights:“Our cultural history, rather than a
cumulative development, seems mostly a series of dead ends. One reason
is a fear of moving on to a more complex phase; another reason is a fear of
tools. Native pottery, for instance, somehow never got far enough to grasp the
principle of the wheel. Neither did native agriculture ever reach the point of
discovering the plow for itself, or even the idea of the draft animal, though the
carabao was handy. Wheel and plow had to come from outside because we
always stopped short of technology.”
This three-decade Foresight is one of those bold enterprises our esteemed

National Artist for Literature Nick Joaquin wrote about, and, while we may
hope to be able to answer Joaquin’s criticisms with it, we must ensure that
this large venture succeeds, and continues to do so, across its’ set timeframe.
Such is also a recurring fate of many initiatives of government that have lost
steam—across agencies, administrations, and at all levels from the barangay
to the Palace. Just as science and technology permeates daily life, so, too, do
media and the arts—and the insights of our journalists, authors, and artists
often provides valuable social commentary that has direct and strong bearing
on the state of our nation at any given point in time. What this Foresight
must take into account is that it will be implemented in the physical and
political reality of a nation that has always had the potential for great growth
but has not yet fulfilled that potential. Painful truths only hurt until they are
addressed, which is why we need to read and comprehend such truths, then
act on them accordingly.
To answer Joaquin’s criticisms, we need to do more than spew angry,

defensive retorts. He did not simply mean to rile his readers with his essay. He
penned this as a call to action, by speaking truths that should be taken as a
complex challenge, rather than as a set of put-downs. Joaquin was mapping
the societal and political landscape to show his readers where the pitfalls
have always lain. It is up to us to learn the lessons he has sought for decades
to teach.
270
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318
APPENDIX
List of Technologies per Operational Area
LIST OF TECHNOLOGIES
PER OPERATIONAL AREA
Operational Areas Specific Technologies

Food Security and • Remote sensing
Nutrition • Artificial Intelligence
• Big data system
• Nanotechnology
• Transgenic technology
• Biotechnology
• Transport and logistic system
• Online platforms and internet-based solutions
• ICT-based farming
• Digital farms
• High-pressure hydraulic systems
• High-speed, high precision equipment
• Genetic breeding
• High throughput phenotyping
• Tissue culture/embryo rescue
• Bioinformatics
• CRISPR-CAS
• Genomic selection
Health Systems Health Information Technology
• EHR / Health information system
• Telehealth platforms
• Artificial intelligence
• Data analytics
• Internet connectivity
• Disease tracking
• Knowledge management
• Precision medicine
• Accessible public health databases
• Biomedical devices
Health Policy and Systems Research
• Clinic management system
• Primary care algorithm
• Cost effectiveness evaluation system
• Government policy
• Health informatics programs
• Health technology assessment
• Implementation science
• National health indicators
Precision Public Health
• Omics technology
• Precision medicine
• Genome database; access
• Programs for affordable drugs
• Health information system
320
PAGTANAW 2050

Health Literacy
• Public health education, information
• Digital platforms, electronic system
• Gamification
• Mobile health
• Community engagement
• Telehealth
Health Financing
• Blockchain technology payment system
• Attractive compensation for healthcare workers
• Efficient collection of sin tax
• Health informatics
• IT architecture/telecon backbone
• Research and development budget allocation
• Automated claims reimbursement system
• Real-time socialized payment scheme
Biotechnology
• Locally manufactured devices
• Rapid and molecular diagnostics
• Wearables and sensors
• 3D printing
• Robotics
• Natural products and therapy
• Genomics
• “Nanobiotechnology”
• Regenerative medicine; stem cell technology
• Assistive and supportive devices
Health Workforce Enhancement
• E-learning platform, online learning, MOOC
• Manpower database
• Virtual /augmented reality; use of robots for training
• Remote screening and monitoring of healthcare workers
• Diagnostic system for physicians
• Information system records
• Proper compensation of healthcare workers
• On-demand learning modules
Environment
• Green architecture
• Health waste management, disposal, recycling
• Biosensors for environment
• Antibiotic resistance monitoring
• Health impact assessment
• Risk mitigation devices
• Training of specialists
• Policy environment
Energy Clean Energy Technologies
• Solar energy technologies and systems
• Wind energy technologies and systems
• Clean Energy from ocean waves
• Energy storage
• Smart energy systems
• Microgrids
• Energy blockchain and IoT
• Biofuels
• Energy from wastes
• Energy recovery devices
Nuclear Power
321

Water Rainwater harvesting
• Small-scale water cisterns to collect rainwater in households
• Water reservoir through groundwater aquifer with infiltration galleries at strategic recharge
areas
• Infiltration gallery built around the house to deep percolate into the ground (subsurface) to
minimize flood risk in case storage tanks for rainfall are full
Seawater desalination with electricity production
• SWRO integrated with pressure retarded osmosis and forward osmosis
Algae-based wastewater treatment
• Fluidized bed algae-based wastewater treatment system
• Fixed-bed algae-based wastewater treatment system
• Suspended algae-based wastewater treatment system
Membrane technology
• Membranes with high chemical stability for wastewater recovery
• Membranes and modules with antifouling properties
• Large membrane surfaces with homogeneous characteristics
• Desalination of sea water
Nutrient recovery from wastewater
• Biological assimilation through constructed wetlands for phosphorus and nitrogen removal
from wastewater
• Nutrients recovery by microalgae-based processes
Smart water monitoring
• Real-time remote water level or soil-moisture monitoring device
• Smart water quantity meter
• Smart water quality meter
• Internet of Things
• Sanitation and sewerage management system technology
• Periodic and iterative assessment of the water quality and pollution technology
Constructed wetlands and phytoremediation
• Phytoextraction or phytoaccumulation
• Phytovolatilization
• Phytostabilization or Phytosequestration
• Phytodegradation
• Phytofiltration or Rhizofiltration or Rhizodegradation
Environment and Agricultural Lands
Climate Change • Precision agriculture (i.e., precision fertilization, irrigation, and pest and disease detection
and management)
• Site-Crop suitability matching tools
• Remote Sensing for the monitoring of soil conditions.
• GIS-Aided Pesticides and Fertilizer Use Information system to keep track of the amount and
location of application of pesticides and fertilizers for the assessment of environmental
impacts
Watershed
• Comprehensive long-term watershed and ecosystem observation systems–continuously
track down the changes in its functions and services, along with the associated changes in
the natural (e.g., climate) and socioeconomic drivers (e.g., land use).
• Philippine Ecosystem and Watershed Observation Network–adopt protocols of existing
international observation networks such as NEON (National Ecological Observation Network
of USA), TEAM (Tropical Ecology Assessment and Monitoring), and ILTER (International
Long-Term Ecological Research Network).
• Philippine Ecosystem and Watershed Observation Network–adopt protocols of existing
international observation networks such as NEON (National Ecological Observation Network
of USA), TEAM (Tropical Ecology Assessment and Monitoring), and ILTER (International
Long-Term Ecological Research Network).
• Environmental and biological sensors–monitor hydrological processes and soil conditions.
• Remote sensing, drones and related technologies–facilitate real-time data collection
concurrently over many watersheds and ecosystems that will allow for comparative and
relational studies across watersheds and ecosystems in different biogeographic zones.
• Watershed decision support systems–processreal-time and quasi real-time datasets
into information that are vital to making sound science-based management and policy
decisions.
322
PAGTANAW 2050

• Watershed and ecosystem models–projection and simulation of watershed and ecosystem
responses to changes in climate and development activities
• Land use scenario builders–projection of expansion of urbanization, agriculture, land
degradation, and deforestation
• Subsea engineering and technology
• Sensors and imaging
• Satellite technologies
• Computerization and big data analytics
• Autonomous systems
• Biotechnology
• Nanotechnology
• Drones
• Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs)
• 3D mapping and modeling tools
• High resolution and nano satellite imagery,
• Suite of monitoring and surveillance tools
• Geospatial technology. e.g. remote sensing, geographic information science and spatial
statistics.
Soil
• Nationwide reassessment of soil resources and setting in place of an integrated decision
support system (DSS) consisting at the least of systematic and continuous monitoring of
soil health.
• Web-based soil and related dataset management system
• Widely and readily accessible multiple platform-based soil health assessment tool
Land
• Application of landscape-based (i.e., watershed and ecosystem-based, and ridge to
reef approach) local and regional land use planning and development, and agricultural
development, and landscape/ecosystem-based.
• Practice of sustainable land management (SLM), sustainable forest management (SFM)
and multifunction forest landscape restoration, landscape-seascape management and
sustainable agriculture (SA) including precision agriculture.
• Inherent to the integrated approaches to land use planning and management for robust
tradeoff analysis between competing land uses in terms of individual and combined net
impacts on ecosystems, environment, economy and social welfare.
Timber
• Robust timber resources tracking system
• RFID-aided forest products tagging and tracking technology
Forest and Biodiversity
• Remote sensing and GIS-aided precision tools for the stratification of areas.
• ICT for general or targeted IEC programs. e.g. cellular phones and tablets.
• Personal digital assistants (PDA)
• Electronic diaries
• CyberTracker
• Species distribution models
• Habitat fragmentation analytical tools
• Animal Camera Trapping Technology
Climate Change
• Technologies for adjusting cropping calendar, developing flood tolerant rice varieties,
diversification of crops and livestock.
• Tailor-made adaptation tools and technologies focused on food security, soil and water
conservation, resilience of terrestrial, coastal and marine ecosystems, biodiversity and land
productivity, and human security.
• Nature-based solutions
• Real-time online climate monitoring and forecasting dataset and information system of
PAGASA freely accessible to the public at will for informed response actions to climate
related risks.
323

Shelter, Transportation, Digital Technologies
and Other Infrastructure • 3D printing or additive manufacturing of materials
• Active energy-response building cladding or window technology, including electrochromics
and thermochromics
• AI tools to monitor impact of infrastructure development to economic cost and well-being
of communities
• Automatic small-freight transportation system using underground spaces and building
conduits
• Autonomous vehicles
• Battery-free wireless communications
• Building information modelling systems
• Decision-making software to support the optimization of building maintenance
• Demand-responsive domestic appliances
• Digital floor plan-based automatic high-rise building construction robots
• Energy self-sufficient megabuilding design construction technology
• Flying cars
• Food storage, packaging, and distribution facilities
• High-speed vertical-horizontal 3D track system in high-rise-buildings-underground spaces
• Household waste collection/transportation/categorization system for recycling or energy-
recovery
• Hyperloop transport
• Hypersonic airplanes
• Internet of Things, Internet of Everything
• Maglev trains
• Modularization-based LEGO-type one-day housing construction technology
• Passenger health monitoring systems
• Real-time continuous disaster-monitoring technology using remote sensing information of
multiple satellites
• RFID tagging and tracking systems
• Robot inspection technology to inspect buildings or infrastructures that are more dangerous
or costly for humans to inspect
• Safety communications systems
• Seismic damage prediction systems
• Shelters and emergency facilities
• Smart grid energy monitoring, networking, distribution
• Smart water monitoring
• Traffic control systems
• Unmanned low-altitude aircraft for the surveillance of territorial waters, disaster monitoring,
and rescue support
Nanotechnologies
• Aerogel insulation
• Carbon conversion, sequestration, storage in building materials
• Carbon fiber bodies
• Nano-energy generator
• Nanotech improved LED lightbulbs
• Photovoltaic cell
• Pressure and motion sensors
• Quantum dot vision windows
Biotechnologies
• Biofuels
• Bioluminescent lighting
• Multiple biometric recognition
• Food storage, packaging, and distribution facilities
Neurotechnologies
of communities
• Multiple biometric recognition
• Passenger health monitoring systems
324
PAGTANAW 2050

Clean/Green technologies
• 3D printing or additive manufacturing of materials
• Active energy-response building cladding or window technology, including electrochromics
and thermochromics
• Aerogel insulation
of communities
• Automatic small-freight transportation system using underground spaces and building
conduits
• Battery-free wireless communications
• Biofuels
• Bioluminescent lighting
• Building information modelling systems
• Carbon conversion, sequestration, storage in building materials
• Carbon fiber bodies
• Demand-responsive domestic appliances
• Energy self-sufficient megabuilding design construction technology
• Flying cars
• Fuel cells
• Fuel efficient and environment-friendly engines
• High-strength wood components and fire-resistant wood structures for the construction of
low- and high-rise wooden buildings, such as office buildings
• Household waste collection/transportation/categorization system for recycling or energy-
recovery
• Hybrid electric vehicles
• Hyperloop transport
• Hypersonic airplanes
• Indoor and outdoor operable unmanned vehicle technology
• Internet of Things, Internet of Everything
• Maglev trains
• Micro-hydro system using rainwater in high-rise buildings
• Modularization-based LEGO-type one-day housing construction technology
• Nano-energy generator
• Natural bioremediation and phytoremediation in and around buildings
• Photovoltaic cell
• Quantum dot vision windows
• Rainwater harvesting
ICT Digital Ecosystems
• Quantum Computing
• Digital Transformation
• Digital Transformed Entity
• Digital Twin
• User-friendly interfaces of the enhanced ICT
◦ To explore new ways to visualizing how digital information flow
• Converting manual steps to digital form
• Skills Needed in Developing the Digital Ecosystem
◦ Artificial Intelligence (cross-disciplinary, all levels)
◦ Decision and control scientists and engineers
◦ Computer Scientists
◦ Data Scientists
◦ Information Technologists
◦ Information Systems Managers
◦ Electronics Engineers
325

◦ Socio-economic scientists
◦ Programmers
◦ Telecommunications Engineers
◦ Security Specialists
◦ Information Theory Specialists
◦ Digital Networks Specialists
◦ Specific Digital Ecosystems Developers
◦ Artificial Neural Networks and Machine Intelligence Specialists
◦ Software Engineers
◦ Applications-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASIC) Designers
◦ Optoelectronics Scientists and Engineers
◦ Technicians for all the above
Science Education and ICT
Talent Retention • Management Information Systems (MIS)
• Wireless Communication Technology
• Fiber-optic Communication
• Information Technology
• Simulation Technologies
Internet of Things
Digital teaching platform (DTP): e.g. Learning Management System
Immersive Authentic Simulations: multiuser virtual environments and augmented reality e.g.
flight simulators to train pilots
Next generation digital learning environment (NGDLE: to suit preferred individual and
institutional learning environments
ITU-D Study Groups 2019 last mile connectivity measures
• wired systems e.g. optical fiber for high information capacity
• traditional wired local area networks e.g. copper coaxial cables to support higher
transmission bandwidth and improved modulation
• cable TV systems: bi-directional communication, limited user capacity
• optical fibre: high capacity, high performance, low error rates
WiFi technology: hot spots and LANs installed at points of community activities
High Altitude platform systems (HAPS) and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) e.g. drones as
mobile base stations to provide connectivity
Software-defined networking (SDN) as tool to enable a programmatically efficient network e.g.
address challenges in the production, distribution, and use of digital instructional materials
Blue Economy Blue Energy
• Blue bioenergy through algal biofuel production
• Algal photobioreactors
• Algal photovoltaics
• Microbial Fuel cell
• Blue Biojet Fuel from Hydrothermal liquefaction Process
• Integrated bio-refinery in palm oil mill
• Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC)
• Underwater power grid technology and subsea power systems.
• Smart energy monitoring and network
• Fuel cell
• Biomimicry inspired wave and tidal energy
• Tidal InStream Energy Conversion (TISEC)
Blue Food and Medicine
• Blue biotechnology for pharmaceutical, cosmetic, food, feeds, and beverages.
• IMTA Precision aquaculture (monitoring using wireless mutli-sensors; robotics, mechanized
• AI and other STI to improve monitoring and management of fisheries
Blue Transportation and Industries
• Advanced Material Research and Development
• Blue nano-materials
• Smart Shipping
• and e-Boats
• Wave disc engines
• Ultra capacitor vehicles and watercrafts
• Carbon dioxide to carbon nanotubes conversion
• Carbon storage in building material
• Bioremediation & phytoremediation for hazardous wastes
326
PAGTANAW 2050

• Aerogel insulation technology
• Electric and hybrid vehicles and watercrafts
• Carbon dioxide collector for vehicles
Digital Blue Ecosystems
• Advance Material Research and Development
• Blue nano-materials
• Smart Shipping and e-Boats
• Wave disc engines
• Ultra capacitor vehicles and watercrafts
• Carbon dioxide to carbon nanotubes conversion
• Carbon storage in building material
• Bioremediation & phytoremediation for hazardous wastes
• Aerogel insulation technology
• Electric and hybrid vehicles and watercrafts
• Carbon dioxide collector for vehicles
Blue Home Technologies
• Bioluminescent household and street lighting through biomimicry
• Membrane technology for water treatment filtration
• Integrated co-processing technology for domestic wastes
• Micro-hydro systems using rainwater in high rise building
• Solar grey water disinfection
• Bioplastics (Plastic from crops)
Blue Education and Tourism
• Promoting blue ecosystem conservation via Internet of Things
• Carbon Neutral Resorts
• S&T incubator and marine technology hub
• Geo-tagging for migratory species which can be used for navigation avoidance and
biodiversity ecotourism
Business and Trade Additive Manufacturing
High speed, high-capacity computing
• Trade and business information infrastructure at the internal and external
• Artificial Intelligence
• Big Data
• Data science
• Automation
High-Throughput, large scale, systematic automated chemometric methods
• Detection
• Identification
• Quantification
• Monitoring
Analytical Methods for biologicals, gene products, substrates and cell activities
• Assessment for the introduction of exotic species
• Assessment for the introduction of GMOs and their products
• Biosecurity- detect entry of biological warfare materials
• Biosafety- detect entry of infected food products
Emerging technologies for product inspection during transport (Rouhi, 1995)
• Computed tomography: using x-ray to reconstruct cross sectional image of an object
• X-ray scanners
• Nuclear Quadrupole Resonance: detection of quadrupole moments of elements used in
explosives
• Neutron Analysis: Materials bathed with neutrons will emit gamma-rays whose energy and
intensity are characteristic of component elements like nitrogen.
• Vapor detection methods: characteristic vapor emitted by material
Recycling Technology materials derived from production and obsolete products
327

Governance • Internet
• National ID system
• Election computerization
◦ national voter registration systems
◦ use of telephones and online portals
• National defense technologies
◦ Secure and reliable communications systems
◦ Locally-produced combat rations
◦ Survival technology for injuries and infections
◦ Technology to identify casualties
◦ Cyber, spaced-based, unmanned, autonomous, and other complex military systems, e.g.,
hypersonic weapons (Stone 2020) and laser weapons (Lockheed Martin 2020)
◦ Unmanned aerial systems
◦ Precision munitions
◦ Robust and secure military transport systems- land, air, and water
◦ Electro-optic/infrared countermeasures (Lockheed Martin 2019)
• National statistics system
• ICT-based information and documentation services
• Forensic services
• Customs enforcement
• Humanitarian emergency-response technologies
• Geographic information systems
• Culture heritage preservation technologies
Space Exploration • Upstream activities: design, assembly, integration and testing of satellites, other
spacecraft and their payloads, systems, subsystems, and components
◦ includes space infrastructure: rockets, spaceports/launch sites
• Downstream activities: use of space systems to develop and deliver products and services
for scientific, experimental and commercial applications
◦ e.g. telecommunications, navigation, surveillance, Earth observation, etc.
• Geospatial information management
• Precision agriculture systems that make use of satellite data
• Satellite observations and maps in aiding farm productivity and monitoring precipitation,
waterways, aquifers, etc.
• Use of satellite instruments to assist in climate change mitigation and disaster response
• Remote sensing
• Data science
• Machine learning or AI
• Robust ground calibration networks (e.g. spectrometers, LIDAR, flux towers, etc.)
• Use of hyperspectral satellites to monitor essential biodiversity variables of coastal
ecosystems
328
Commissioned by
NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, PHILIPPINES

3rd Level, Science Heritage Building, DOST Complex, Bicutan, Taguig 1631, Metro Manila
Direct Lines: (632) 838 77 39/66/92 | Trunk Lines: (632) 837 2071 to 73
Fax Number: (632) 837 3170
[email protected] | www.nast.ph
@nastphl

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PAGTANAW 2050

THE PHILIPPINE FORESIGHT

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be used, reproduced,

Printed in the Philippines

National Library of the Philippines

Pagtanaw 2050: The Philippine Foresight on Science, Technology, and Innovation

Initiated by Secretary Fortunato T. de la Peña

Section 1. The Making of the 30-Year Science, Techology, and Innovation

Section 2. Megatrends: From COVID-19 to Space and Beyond........................ 59

Section 3. Setting Sights on the Future: Philippine Goals and Aspirations........ 90

Section 4. Facets of Philippine Science, Technology, and Innovation............. 110

Section 5. Uncertainties, Risks, Shocks, and Black Swans........................... 221

Section 6. A Roadmap to the Future......................................................... 229

Section 7. Ensuring Continuity and Relevance........................................... 259

This complement came to my mind when, in 2018, I was invited by the

Pagtanaw 2050 includes a compendium of STI megatrends; global and

This Foresight document is firmly grounded on the Filipino people’s

look forward to growing into an economically vibrant and outward-oriented

My thanks goes out to NAST PHL President Academician Rhodora Azanza,

This NAST-PHL initiative is a big step towards designing and implementing

Honorable Fortunato T. De La Peña

Despite a brief period of fast-paced economic growth in the first decades of

Herein is a compendium of megatrends; global and national societal goals;

It is the conclusion of the NAST PHL and the recommendation of this

To that end, we have identified 12 key operational areas, namely: Blue

Rhodora V. Azanza, Ph.D.

Project Leader: Academician (Acd.) Rhodora V. Azanza; Chair of the Steering

Division Heads of the Academy: NS Raul V. Fabella, Acd. Rhodora V. Azanza,

Editorial Board: Acd. Rhodora V. Azanza, Acd. William G. Padolina, Timothy

Writers of the Sections on Science, Technology, and Innovation (STI)

Members of the Academy who participated in the Workshops and Focused

Members of the Outstanding Young Scientists, Inc. who participated

Representatives from the following government and Higher Education

Representatives from the following non-government organizations

The following who participated as facilitators in some foresight

NAST PHL Director: Luningning E. Samarita-Domingo; Members of the

STI Foresight Research Assistants: Sherlane T. Buendia, Ann Charise D.

Table 1.1_1. Profiles of Delphi Survey Respondents..................................................... 6

Figure 2.3_1. Flows of Goods, Services, and Finance as % of GDP................................ 78

Acronym Meaning Acronym Meaning

2IR Second Industrial Revolution BOL Bangsamoro Organic Law

3IR Third Industrial Revolution BPO Business Process Outsourcing

AFP Armed Forces of the Philippines CCC Climate Change Commission

AI Artificial Intelligence CCGT Close Cycle Gas-turbine

AQMF Air Quality Management Fund CHED Commission on Higher Education

AR Augmented Reality CHW Community health worker

Access to Resources and Innovations Convention on International Trade in

Accelerated Science and Technology DA Department of Agriculture

Acronym Meaning Acronym Meaning

Engineering Science and Education Harmonized National Research and

Acronym Meaning Acronym Meaning

International Telecommunications National Aeronautics and Space

IWB Interactive Whiteboard NCD Non-Communicable Disease

JAXA Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency NCR National Capital Region

Japan International Cooperation National Disaster Risk Reduction and

JRC Joint Research Centre National Economic and Development

KIG Kalayaan Island Group Next Generation Digital Learning

LAN Local Area Network National Integrated Basic Research

Light Detection and Ranging National Institute for Science and