Revision Sheet (Statistics & Probability)

1a. [2 marks]
The number of birds seen on a power line on any day can be modelled by a Poisson
distribution with mean 5.84.
Find the probability that during a certain seven-day week, more than 40 birds have been
seen on the power line.

Markscheme
mean for week is 40.88 (A1)
P(𝑆 > 40) = 1 − P(𝑆 ≤ 40) = 0.513 A1
[2 marks]
3. [5 marks]
The weights, in kg, of one-year-old bear cubs are modelled by a normal distribution with
mean 𝜇 and standard deviation 𝜎.
(a) Given that the upper quartile weight is 21.3 kg and the lower quartile weight is 17.1
kg, calculate the value of 𝜇 and the value of 𝜎.
A random sample of 100 of these bear cubs is selected.
(b) Find the expected number of bear cubs weighing more than 22 kg.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences
in marking or structure.
(a) METHOD 1
1
𝜇 = 2 × (17.1 + 21.3) (M1)

𝜇 = 19.2 (kg) A1
finding z value for the upper quartile = 0.674489K
21.3−19.2 17.1−19.2
0.674489K = or −0.674489K = M1
𝜎 𝜎

𝜎 = 3.11 (kg) A1
METHOD 2
finding z value for the upper quartile = 0.674489K
from symmetry the z value for a lower quartile is −0.674489K M1
forming two simultaneous equations:
17.1 − 𝜇
−0.674489K =
𝜎
21.3−𝜇
0.674489K = M1
𝜎

solving gives:
𝜇 = 19.2 (kg) A1
𝜎 = 3.11 (kg) A1
[4 marks]

(b) using 100 × P(𝑋 > 22) = 100 × 0.184241K

= 18 A1

Note: Accept 18.4

[1 mark]

Total [5 marks]
4. [7 marks]
Six customers wait in a queue in a supermarket. A customer can choose to pay with cash or
a credit card. Assume that whether or not a customer pays with a credit card is
independent of any other customers’ methods of payment.
It is known that 60% of customers choose to pay with a credit card.
(a) Find the probability that:
(i) the first three customers pay with a credit card and the next three pay with cash;
(ii) exactly three of the six customers pay with a credit card.
There are n customers waiting in another queue in the same supermarket. The probability
that at least one customer pays with cash is greater than 0.995.
(b) Find the minimum value of n.
Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences
in marking or structure.
(a) (i) 0.63 × 0.43 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for use of the product of probabilities.

= 0.0138 A1

(ii) binomial distribution 𝑋: B(6, 0.6) (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for recognizing the binomial distribution.

6
P(𝑋 = 3) = 𝐶3 (0.6)3 (0.4)3
= 0.276 A1

6
Note: Award (M1)A1 for 𝐶3 × 0.0138 = 0.276.

[4 marks]

(b) 𝑌: B(𝑛, 0.4)

P(𝑌 ≥ 1) > 0.995
1 − P(𝑌 = 0) > 0.995
P(𝑌 = 0) < 0.005 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for any of the last three lines. Accept equalities.

0.6𝑛 < 0.005 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for attempting to solve 0.6𝑛 < 0.005 using any method, eg, logs,
graphically, use of solver. Accept an equality.

𝑛 > 10.4
∴ 𝑛 = 11 A1
[3 marks]

Total [7 marks]
5. [4 marks]
The random variable 𝑋 has a Poisson distribution with mean 𝜇.
Given that P(𝑋 = 2) + P(𝑋 = 3) = P(𝑋 = 5),
(a) find the value of 𝜇;
(b) find the probability that X lies within one standard deviation of the mean.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences
in marking or structure.
𝜇 2 e−𝜇 𝜇 3 e−𝜇 𝜇 5 e−𝜇
(a) + = (M1)
2! 3! 5!

𝜇2 𝜇3 𝜇5
+ − =0
2 6 120
𝜇 = 5.55 A1
[2 marks]

(b) 𝜎 = √5.55 … = 2.35598 … (M1)

P(3.19 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 7.9)
P(4 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 7)
= 0.607 A1
[2 marks]
Total [4 marks]
6a. [5 marks]
The random variable X has probability distribution Po(8).
(i) Find P(𝑋 = 6).
(ii) Find P(𝑋 = 6|5 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 8).

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences
in marking or structure.
(i) P(𝑋 = 6) = 0.122 (M1)A1
P(𝑋=6) 0.122…
(ii) P(𝑋 = 6|5 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 8) = P(5≤𝑋≤8) = 0.592…−0.0996… (M1)(A1)

= 0.248 A1
[5 marks]
6b. [3 marks]

𝑋 denotes the sample mean of 𝑛 > 1 independent observations from 𝑋.

(i) Write down E(𝑋) and Var(𝑋).

(ii) Hence, give a reason why 𝑋 is not a Poisson distribution.

Markscheme
(i) E(𝑋) = 8 A1
8
Var(𝑋) = 𝑛 A1

(ii) E(𝑋) ≠ Var(𝑋) (for 𝑛 > 1) R1

Note: Only award the R1 if the two expressions in (b)(i) are different.

[3 marks]
6c. [6 marks]
A random sample of 40 observations is taken from the distribution for 𝑋.
(i) Find P(7.1 < 𝑋 < 8.5).

(ii) Given that P(|𝑋 − 8| ≤ 𝑘) = 0.95, find the value of 𝑘.

Markscheme
(i) EITHER

𝑋 ∼ N(8, 0.2) (M1)A1

Note: M1 for normality, A1 for parameters.

P(7.1 < 𝑋 < 8.5) = 0.846 A1

OR
The expression is equivalent to
P(283 ≤ ∑𝑋 ≤ 339) where ∑𝑋 is Po(320) M1A1
= 0.840 A1

Note: Accept 284, 340 instead of 283, 339

Accept any answer that rounds correctly to 0.84 or 0.85.

(ii) EITHER
𝜎
𝑘 = 1.96 or 1.96 std(𝑋) (M1)(A1)
√𝑛

𝑘 = 0.877 or 1.96√0.2 A1
OR
The expression is equivalent to
𝑃(320 − 40𝑘 ≤ ∑𝑋 ≤ 320 + 40𝑘) = 0.95 (M1)
𝑘 = 0.875 A2

Note: Accept any answer that rounds to 0.87 or 0.88.

Award M1A0 if modulus sign ignored and answer obtained rounds to 0.74 or 0.75
[6 marks]
7a. [4 marks]
A group of tourists went on safari to a game reserve. The game warden wanted to know
how many of the tourists saw Leopard (𝐿), Cheetah (𝐶) or Rhino (𝑅). The results are given
as follows.
5 of the tourists saw all three
7 saw Leopard and Rhino
1 saw Cheetah and Leopard but not Rhino
4 saw Leopard only
3 saw Cheetah only
9 saw Rhino only
Draw a Venn diagram to show this information.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences
in marking or structure.

(A1)(A1)(A1)(A1)
Note: Award (A1) for rectangle and three labelled intersecting circles (the rectangle need
not be labelled), (A1) for 5, (A1) for 2 and 1, (A1) for 4, 3 and 9.

[4 marks]
7b. [2 marks]
There were 25 tourists in the group and every tourist saw at least one of the three types of
animal.
Find the number of tourists that saw Cheetah and Rhino but not Leopard.

Markscheme
25 − (5 + 2 + 1 + 4 + 3 + 9) (M1)

Notes: Award (M1) for their 5 + 2 + 1 + 4 + 3 + 9 seen even if total is greater than 25.
Do not award (A1)(ft) if their total is greater than 25.

=1 (A1)(ft)(G2)
[2 marks]
7c. [6 marks]
There were 25 tourists in the group and every tourist saw at least one of the three types of
animal.
Calculate the probability that a tourist chosen at random from the group
(i) saw Leopard;
(ii) saw only one of the three types of animal;
(iii) saw only Leopard, given that he saw only one of the three types of animal.

Markscheme
12
(i) (0.48, 48%) (A1)(ft)(A1)(G2)
25

Notes: Award (A1)(ft) for numerator, (A1) for denominator.

Follow through from Venn diagram.
 16
(ii) (0.64, 64%) (A1)(A1)(G2)
25

Notes: Award (A1) for numerator, (A1) for denominator.

There is no follow through; all information is given.

4
(iii) (0.25, 25%)) (A1)(A1)(ft)(G2)
16

Notes: Award (A1) for numerator, (A1)(ft) for denominator.

Follow through from part (c)(ii) only.

[6 marks]
7d. [2 marks]
There were 25 tourists in the group and every tourist saw at least one of the three types of
animal.
If a tourist chosen at random from the group saw Leopard, find the probability that he also
saw Cheetah.

Markscheme
6
(0.5, 50%) (A1)(A1)(ft)(G2)
12

Notes: Award (A1) for numerator, (A1)(ft) for denominator.

Follow through from Venn diagram.

[2 marks]
8a. [2 marks]
A group of candidates sat a Chemistry examination and a Physics examination. The
candidates’ marks in the Chemistry examination are normally distributed with a mean of
60 and a standard deviation of 12.
Draw a diagram that shows this information.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences
in marking or structure.

(A1)(A1)

Notes: Award (A1) for rough sketch of normal curve centred at 60, (A1) for some
indication of 12 as the standard deviation eg, as diagram, or with 72 and 48 shown on the
horizontal axis in appropriate places, or for 96 and 24 shown on the horizontal axis in
appropriate places.

[2 marks]
8b. [1 mark]
Write down the probability that a randomly chosen candidate who sat the Chemistry
examination scored at most 60 marks.

Markscheme
1
0.5 (2 , 50% ) (A1)

Note: Accept only the exact answer.

[1 mark]
8c. [2 marks]
Hee Jin scored 80 marks in the Chemistry examination.
Find the probability that a randomly chosen candidate who sat the Chemistry examination
scored more than Hee Jin.

Markscheme
0.0478 (0.0477903. . . ) (G2)

Note: Award (G1) for 0.952209 …, award (M1)(G0) for diagram with correct area shown
but incorrect answer.

[2 marks]
8d. [2 marks]
The candidates’ marks in the Physics examination are normally distributed with a mean of
63 and a standard deviation of 10. Hee Jin also scored 80 marks in the Physics examination.
Find the probability that a randomly chosen candidate who sat the Physics examination
scored less than Hee Jin.

Markscheme
0.955 (0.955434. . . ) (G2)

Note: Award (G1) for 0.044565 …, award (M1)(G0) for diagram with correct area shown
but incorrect answer.

[2 marks]
8e. [2 marks]
The candidates’ marks in the Physics examination are normally distributed with a mean of
63 and a standard deviation of 10. Hee Jin also scored 80 marks in the Physics examination.
Determine whether Hee Jin’s Physics mark, compared to the other candidates, is better
than her mark in Chemistry. Give a reason for your answer.

Markscheme
0.0446 < 0.0478 (R1)
Notes: Award (R1) for correct comparison seen. Accept alternative methods, for example,
1 (their answer to part (c)) used in comparison or a comparison based on 𝑧 scores.

the Physics result is better (A1)(ft)

Notes: Do not award (R0)(A1). Follow through from their answers to part (c) and part (d).

[2 marks]
8f. [3 marks]
To obtain a “grade A” a candidate must be in the top 10% of the candidates who sat the
Physics examination.
Find the minimum possible mark to obtain a “grade A”. Give your answer correct to the
nearest integer.

Markscheme
76 (G3)

Notes: Award (G1) for 75.8155 …, award (G2) for 75.

Award (M1)(G0) for diagram with correct area shown but incorrect answer.

[3 marks]
9a. [3 marks]
A forest has a large number of tall trees. The heights of the trees are normally distributed
with a mean of 53 metres and a standard deviation of 8 metres. Trees are classified as giant
trees if they are more than 60 metres tall.
A tree is selected at random from the forest.
Find the probability that this tree is a giant.

Markscheme
valid approach (M1)
eg P(𝐺) = P(𝐻 > 60, 𝑧 = 0.875, P(𝐻 > 60) = 1 − 0.809, N(53, 82 )
0.190786
P(𝐺) = 0.191 A1 N2
[3 marks]
9b. [3 marks]
A tree is selected at random from the forest.
Given that this tree is a giant, find the probability that it is taller than 70 metres.

Markscheme
finding P(𝐻 > 70) = 0.01679 (seen anywhere) (A1)
recognizing conditional probability (R1)
eg P(𝐴|𝐵), P(𝐻 > 70|𝐻 > 60)
correct working (A1)
0.01679
eg 0.191

0.0880209
P(𝑋 > 70|𝐺) = 0.0880 A1 N3
[6 marks]
9c. [2 marks]
Two trees are selected at random. Find the probability that they are both giants.

Markscheme
attempt to square their P(𝐺) (M1)
eg 0.1912
0.0363996
P(both 𝐺) = 0.0364 A1 N2
[2 marks]
9d. [3 marks]
100 trees are selected at random.
Find the expected number of these trees that are giants.
Markscheme
correct substitution into formula for E(𝑋) (A1)
eg 100(0.191)
E(𝐺) = 19.1 [19.0, 19.1] A1 N2
[3 marks]
9e. [3 marks]
100 trees are selected at random.
Find the probability that at least 25 of these trees are giants.

Markscheme
recognizing binomial probability (may be seen in part (c)(i)) (R1)
eg 𝑋 ∼ B(𝑛, 𝑝)
valid approach (seen anywhere) (M1)
eg P(𝑋 ≥ 25) = 1 − P(𝑋 ≤ 24), 1 − P(𝑋 < 𝑎)
correct working (A1)
eg P(𝑋 ≤ 24) = 0.913 … , 1 − 0.913 …
0.0869002
P(𝑋 ≥ 25) = 0.0869 A1 N2
[3 marks]
10a. [2 marks]
The following table shows the amount of fuel (𝑦 litres) used by a car to travel certain
distances (𝑥 km).

Distance (x km) 40 75 120 150 195

Amount of fuel (y litres) 3.6 6.5 9.9 13.1 16.2

This data can be modelled by the regression line with equation 𝑦 = 𝑎𝑥 + 𝑏.

Write down the value of 𝑎 and of 𝑏.
Markscheme
𝑎 = 0.0823604, 𝑏 = 0.306186
𝑎 = 0.0824, 𝑏 = 0.306 A1A1 N2
[2 marks]
10b. [1 mark]
Explain what the gradient 𝑎 represents.

Markscheme
correct explanation with reference to number of litres
required for 1 km A1 N1
eg 𝑎 represents the (average) amount of fuel (litres) required to drive 1 km, (average)
litres per kilometre, (average) rate of change in fuel used for each km travelled
[1 marks]
10c. [2 marks]
Use the model to estimate the amount of fuel the car would use if it is driven 110 km.

Markscheme
valid approach (M1)
eg 𝑦 = 0.0824(110) + 0.306, sketch
9.36583
9.37 (litres) A1 N2
[2 marks]
11a. [1 mark]
A survey was conducted to determine the length of time, 𝑡, in minutes, people took to drink
their coffee in a café. The information is shown in the following grouped frequency table.
Write down the total number of people who were surveyed.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences
in marking or structure.
60 (A1)
[1 mark]
11b. [1 mark]
Write down the mid-interval value for the 10 < 𝑡 ≤ 15 group.

Markscheme
12.5 (A1)
[1 mark]
11c. [2 marks]
Find an estimate of the mean time people took to drink their coffee.

Markscheme
3×2.5+5×7.5+⋯+10×27.5
(M1)
60
Note: Award (M1) for an attempt to substitute their mid-interval values (consistent with
their answer to part (b)) into the formula for the mean.
Award (M1) where a table is constructed with their (consistent) mid-interval values
listed along with the frequencies.

1075 215
= ( 12 , 17.9, 17.9166 … ) (A1)(ft)(G2)
60

Note: Follow through from their answer to part (b).

[2 marks]
11d. [2 marks]
The information above has been rewritten as a cumulative frequency table.

Write down the value of 𝑎 and the value of 𝑏.

Markscheme
𝑎 = 34, 𝑏 = 60 (A1)(A1)
[2 marks]
12. [5 marks]
A student sits a national test and is told that the marks follow a normal distribution with
mean 100. The student receives a mark of 124 and is told that he is at the 68th percentile.
Calculate the variance of the distribution.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences
in marking or structure.
𝑋: N(100, 𝜎 2 )
P(𝑋 < 124) = 0.68 (M1)(A1)
24
= 0.4676 … (M1)
𝜎

𝜎 = 51.315 … (A1)
variance = 2630 A1

Notes: Accept use of P(𝑋 < 124.5) = 0.68 leading to variance = 2744.

[5 marks]