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Assignment 3

1) The document provides information and questions regarding probabilities of energy shortages from different sources for a community. It also includes questions about defective wall panels being delivered and the probabilities of acceptance or rejection of shipments. 2) Additional questions involve determining probability density functions and probabilities related to power supply from different independent sources. 3) The final section describes a pile designed to hold a certain load and questions about the probability of failure for an individual pile and a group of two piles.

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88 views

Assignment 3

1) The document provides information and questions regarding probabilities of energy shortages from different sources for a community. It also includes questions about defective wall panels being delivered and the probabilities of acceptance or rejection of shipments. 2) Additional questions involve determining probability density functions and probabilities related to power supply from different independent sources. 3) The final section describes a pile designed to hold a certain load and questions about the probability of failure for an individual pile and a group of two piles.

Uploaded by

daffy duck
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Due date: 10/11/2017

CE 205 STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ENGINEERS

ASSIGNMENT-3

1. A community is concerned about the supply of energy for the coming water. Suppose there are
three major sources of energy for the community, namely electrical power, natural gas, and oil.
Let E, G, and O denote, respectively, the shortages of these sources of energy for the next year.
Also, it is estimated that the respective probabilities of these shortages are as follows:
P(E) = 0.15; P(G) = 0.10; and P(O) = 0.20.
Furthermore, if there is a shortage of oil, the probability that there will be shortage of electrical
energy will be doubled. The shortage of gas may be assumed to be statistically independent of
shortages in oil and electricity.

a) What is the probability that there will be shortages in all the three sources of energy next winter?
b) What is the probability that there will be shortages in at least one of the following sources next
winter: gas and electricity?
c) If there is a shortage of electricity next winter, what is the probability that there will also be
shortages in both gas and oil?
d) What is the probability that at least two of three sources of energy will be in short supply next
winter?

2. Prefabricated wall panels are shipped to a construction project site. Suppose that one shipment
is delivered daily to the site. Due to errors in the fabrication process of the panels, it is estimated
that the number of defective wall panels in a shipment is 0, 1, or 2 with respective probabilities
of 0.2, 0.5 and 0.3.
When the wall panels are delivered, they are inspected by the supervisor at the construction site.
The supervisor will accept the entire shipment if at most one panel is found to be defective;
otherwise the shipment is rejected.

a) Determine the probability that a shipment will be accepted on a given day.


b) What is the probability that a shipment will be rejected in a week consisting of 5 working days?
Due date: 10/11/2017

3. The absolute velocity (X) of particles in a gas follows a Maxwell distribution, with the PDF

 4 x2  x2 
 exp  2  if x  0
f x x  a 3   a 
 0 otherwise

Where a is a constant. Determine the PDF fy(y) for the particle kinetic energy Y=1/2×m×X2,
where m is the mass of a particle.

4. The sources of electrical power for a region are nuclear, fossils and hydroelectric. The respective
generating capacities of these sources can be described as independent Gaussian random
variables as follows (in megawatt power):

Nuclear: N(100, 15)


Fossil: N(200, 40)
Hydro: N(400, 100)

a) Determine the total power supply for the region; i.e., define the probability of the water supply
with the corresponding mean and standard deviation.
b) The power demand of the region during normal weather is 400 megawatt, whereas during
extreme weather demand would be 600 megawatt. In any given year, normal weather is twice
likely to occur as extreme weather. With the generating capacity of (a), what is the probability
that power shortage for the region (i.e., demand exceeding supply) will occur during the year?
c) If power shortage should occur during a given year, what is the probability that will occur during
normal weather?
d) Suppose that the three power sources are assigned to supply the following respective
percentages of the total power demand:
Nuclear = 15% of demand; Fossil = 30% of demand; and Hydro = 55% of demand
During normal weather, what is the probability that at least one of the three sources will be
unable to supply their respective allocations? Assume statistical independence.
Due date: 10/11/2017

5. A pile is designed to have a mean capacity of 20 tons; however, because of variabilities, the pile
capacity is lognormally distributed with a coefficient of variation (c.o.v.) of 20%. Suppose the
pile is subject to a maximum lifetime load that is also lognormally distributed with a mean of
10 tons and a c.o.v. of 30%. Assume that pile load and capacity are statistically independent.

a) Determine the probability of failure of the pile.


b) A number of piles may be tied together to form a pile group to resist an external load. Suppose
the capacity of the pile group is the sum of the capacities of the individual piles. Consider a pile
group that consists of two single piles as described above. Because of proximity, the capacities
between two piles are correlated with a correlation coefficient of 0.8. Let T denote the capacity
of the pile group.
(i) Determine the mean value and c.o.v. of T.
(ii) Will the random variable T follow a normal, or lognormal, or some other probability
distribution? Provide an explanation.

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