Study of the Dolok-Penggaron River System

and Design of the East Floodway, Final Report

under JICA Loan IP-534 on Flood Control

CHAPTER 6. FLOOD SIMULATION MODEL

6.1 Model Structure

To analyze flood situation and establish effective countermeasures, hydrological and hydraulic
analysis models is developed. The model consists of three hydrological/hydraulic models;
namely, the runoff model, the river network model (hydrodynamic model) and the inundation
model. The procedure for building the flood analysis model and parameter fitting for
reproducing flood situations are shown in Figure 6.1 .1.

1. Runoff Model (SCS Unit Hydrograph)

Setup sub-catchment area based on river/canal network
Calculation of design rainfall
Estimation of evaporation loss
Runoff analysis in inland flooding areas

2. Hydrodynamic Model (MIKE11)

Collection of cross section data
Set up initial roughness coefficients
Modeling major regulators such as weirs, gates and barrages
Set-up of boundary conditions

3. Inundation Model (MIKE 21)

Building floodplain model with Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)
Set up of roughness coefficients of floodplain considering the land use situation
Set up of continuous structures

4. Re-producing Calculation (MIKE-FLOOD)

Building of flood analysis model
Selection of target floods and collecting hydrological information such as observed discharge/water level, tidal level and recorded flood inundat
Selection of validation points (at hydrological stations)
To execute the flood analysis, modifying related parameters including boundary conditions, roughness coefficients and so on, if any.

Figure 6.1.1 Procedure of Building the Hydrological and Hydraulic Model

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6.2 Runoff Analysis

6.2.1 Structure of Runoff Model
To calculate runoff from each river basin, The Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number
method is employed.
Runoff is determined primarily by the amount of precipitation and by infiltration characteristics
related to soil type, soil moisture antecedent rainfall, cover type, impervious surface and surface
retention. In order to calculate surface runoff, The United States Department of Agriculture
(USDA, 1986) converted mass rainfall to mass runoff by using a runoff curve number (CN
number) is applied.
CN number is based on soil, plant cover and amount of impervious areas, interception and
surface storage. The equation is;

(P−0.2 S)2
Q=
P+0.8 S

Where;
Q: the accumulated runoff depth or rainfall excess
P: the accumulated precipitation
S: maximum soil water retention parameter given by

1000
S= −10
CN

Where;
CN: curve number

The SCS curve number is assigned for each category of land cover and hydrologic soil type.
Then, the average SCS curve number for each rainfall-runoff catchment is computed.
The SCS curve number method allows the use of different antecedent soil moisture conditions
(AMC). Depending on the AMC, the curve number is adjusted. The AMC is categorized into
TYPE I (dry), II (normal) and III (wet).

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6.2.2 Runoff Model

(1) Catchment Area
The total catchment area of the Dolok-Penggaron river system is 314.08km 2 and divided
into 9 river basins and 9 drainage basins which are shown as follows (see Figure 3.3.2
and Figure 3.3.3);

<<Catchment area of river system>>

 Penggaron River :2 sub-catchment area [D-1] [D-2]
 KBT and 3 tributaries :4 sub-catchment area [D-3] [D-4] [D-5] [D-6]
 Dolok River :3 sub-catchment area [D-10] [D-11] [D-12]

<<Catchment area of Drainage system>>

 Residual Basin KBT-Babon : 2 sub-catchment area [D-7-1] [D-7-2]
 Residual Basin Dombo-Sayung-Dolok: 4 sub-catchment area
[D-8-1] [D-8-2] [D-8-3] [D-8-4]
 Residual Basin Dombo-Sayung-Dolok: 3 sub-catchment area
[D-9-1] [D-9-2] [D-9-3]

Table 6.2.1 Catchment Area of the Dolok-Penggaron River System

Catchment Area
Catchment Area
DAS River Basin (DAS)
(km2)
D-1 Penggaron River 58.18
D-2 Residual Basin Penggaron 20.38
D-3 KBT 7.58
D-4 - Candi 4.10
D-5 - Bajak 27.25
D-6 - Kedung Mundu 13.72
D-7 Residual Basin KBT-Babon
D-7-1 Residual Basin KBT-Babon-1 23.87
D-7-2 Residual Basin KBT-Babon-1 15.71
D-8 Residual Basin Babon-Dombo Sayung
D-8-1 Residual Basin Babon-Dombo Sayung-1 14.23
Drainage basin D-8-2 Residual Basin Babon-Dombo Sayung-2 4.96
D-8-3 Residual Basin Babon-Dombo Sayung-3 4.93
D-8-4 Residual Basin Babon-Dombo Sayung-4 2.97
D-9 Residual Basin Dombo-Sayung-Dolok
D-9-1 Residual Basin Dombo-Sayung-Dolok-1 23.81
D-9-2 Residual Basin Dombo-Sayung-Dolok-2 11.49
D-9-3 Residual Basin Dombo-Sayung-Dolok-3 7.20
D-10 Dolok Upstream1 33.45
D-11 Dolok Upstream2 11.27
D-12 Dolok Downstream 28.98
Total: 314.08
Source: Study Team

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(2) Runoff Curve Number

In the Dolok-Penggaron river system, land use can be summarized into 11 types. The
SCS curve numbers are calculated as shown in Table 6.2 .2.
The table is prepared referring to the National Engineering Handbook by Natural
Resources Conservation Service, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Land use map is presented in Annex I-4.

Table 6.2.2 SCS Curve Number in Dolok-Penggaron River System

[Hydrologic Soil Group :A]
Area
Land Use Hydrologic Soil Group CN CN*Area
km2
Brackish and salt Open space, soils primarily consist of sand and sandy
49 0.15 7.3
water aquaculture loams, grass cover 50% to 75%
Building Commercial & Business, soils consist of sand 89 0.53 47.3
Open space, soils primarily consist of sand, grass
Dry field 49 0.00 0.0
cover 50% to 75%
Open space, soils primarily consist of clay loams and
Fishpond 86 0.81 69.7
sandy loams, grass cover < 50%
Woods-grass combination, soils primarily consist of
Forest 43 0.00 0.0
sand, 50% to 75% ground cover
Garden Meadow, soils primarily consist of sand 30 78.89 2,366.6
Grassland, soils consist of sand, 50% to 75% ground
Grassland 49 12.27 601.4
cover
Small grain, straight row, soils primarily consist of
Rice field 63 64.30 4,051.2
loamy sand and sandy loam
Residential district with average impervious area
Settlement Area 77 86.78 6,682.3
around 65%, soils primarily consist of sand
Brush-weed-grass mixture, soils primarily consist of
Shrub land sand, loess and aggregate silt, 50% to 75% ground 35 14.34 502.1
cover
Open space, soils with permanently high water tables,
Swamp soils with a claypan or clay layer at or near the 89 62.01 5,518.6
surface, grass cover < 50%
Total: 320.1 19,846.5
Source: Study Team
Weighted CN Value: 19,846.5 / 320.1 = 62

(3) Hydrograph

To estimate hydrograph for given precipitation pattern, SCS dimensionless unit

hydrograph is employed in the present study. The SCS dimensionless unit hydrograph
requires the lag time for runoff. The lag time is calculated by the following equation.
T LAG =0.6 T C
where TLAG=lag time, TC=time of concentration. The time of concentration is
estimated by the following equation.
T C =T ¿ +T F

Where; TIN=inlet time, TF=travel time of flood flow in a channel.

To estimate the inlet time and travel time, the longest flow path in a catchment is
identified by using SRTM-DEM. Then, the upstream end of the channel is set at the

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point where the catchment area is 2km 2. The inlet time is set at 0.5hr for the catchment
area of 2km2.
The travel time is estimated by assuming the flood propagation speed given in Table
6.2 .3. When the maximum catchment area along the longest flow path is less than
2km2, the time of concentration is set at 0.5hr.
Table 6.2.3 Flood Propagation Speed
Channel Slope >1/100 1/100 – 1/200 1/200 >
Propagation Speed 3.5 m/s 3.0 m/s 2.1 m/s
Source: Technical Criteria for River Works: Practical Guide for Planning, Japan
The estimated a time of concentration as well as the lag time for each rainfall-runoff
catchment are presented in AnnexI-5.

6.2.3 Result of Runoff Analysis

The hydrographs for sub-catchment areas are shown as follow.
Penggaron River: Catchment area [D-1],[D-2]

D-1 Penggaron River Basin D-2 Residual Basin Penggaron

700 400
100 year 100 year
600 50 year 350
50 year
25 year
300 25 year
10 year
Discharge (m3/s)

Discharge (m3/s)

500 10 year
5 year
2 year 250 5 year
400 2 year
200
300
150
200
100
100 50

0 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Time (hr) Time (hr)

Figure 6.2.2 Hydrograph of Penggaron River Basin

KBT,Candi,Bajak,Kedun Mundu: Catchment area [D-3],[D-4], [D-5], [D-6]

D-3 BKT Basin D-4 Candi River Basin

60 60
100year 100year
50 50year 50 50year
25year 25year
Discharge (m3/s)

Discharge (m3/s)

10year 10year
40 5year
40 5year
2year 2year
30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Time (hr) Time (hr)

D-5 Bajak River Basin D-6 Kedung Mundu River Basin

60 140
100year 100year
50 50year 120 50year
25year 25year
Discharge (m3/s)

Discharge (m3/s)

10year 100
40 10year
5year
5year
2year 80
2year
30
60
20
40

10 20

0 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Time (hr) Time (hr)

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Figure 6.2.3 Hydrograph of D-3 KBT and Tributaries Basin

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Residual Basin KBT-Babon: Catchment area [D-7-1],[D-7-2]

D-7-1 Residual Basin BKT-Babon-1 D-7-2 Residual Basin BKT-Babon-2

80 80
100 year 100 year
70 70
50 year 50 year
25 year 25 year
60 60
Discharge (m3/s)

Discharge (m3/s)
10 year 10 year
50 5 year 50 5 year
2 year 2 year
40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Time (hr) Time (hr)

Figure 6.2.4 Hydrograph of Residual Basin KBT – Babon

Residual Basin Babon-Dombo Sayung: Catchment area [D-8-1],[D-8-2], [D-8-3], [D-8-4]

D-8-1 Residual Basin Babon-Dombosayung-1 D-8-2 Residual Basin Babon-Dombosayung-2

80 80
100 year 100 year
70 70
50 year 50 year
25 year 25 year
60 60
Discharge (m3/s)

Discharge (m3/s)

10 year 10 year
50 5 year 50 5 year
2 year 2 year
40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Time (hr) Time (hr)

D-8-3 Residual Basin Babon-Dombosayung-3 D-8-4 Residual Basin Babon-Dombosayung-4

80 80
100 year 100 year
70 70
50 year 50 year
60 25 year 60 25 year
Discharge (m3/s)

Discharge (m3/s)

10 year 10 year
50 5 year 50 5 year
2 year 2 year
40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Time (hr) Time (hr)

Figure 6.2.5 Hydrograph of Residual Basin Babon-Dombo Sayung

Residual Basin Dombo Sayung-Dolok: Catchment area [D-9-1],[D-9-2],[D-9-3]

D-9-1 Residual Basin Dombosayung-Dolok-1 D-9-2 Residual Basin Dombosayung-Dolok-2

80 120
100 year 100 year
70
50 year 100 50 year
60 25 year 25 year
Discharge (m3/s)

Discharge (m3/s)

10 year 10 year
80
50 5 year 5 year
2 year 2 year
40 60

30
40
20
20
10

0 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Time (hr) Time (hr)

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Residual Basin Dombo Sayung-Dolok: Catchment area [D-9-1],[D-9-2],[D-9-3]

D-9-3 Residual Basin Dombosayung-Dolok-3 D-9-1+D-9-2+D-9-3

120 200 Residual Basin Dombosayung-Dolok
100 year 100 year
100 50 year 50 year
25 year 160
25 year
Discharge (m3/s)

Discharge (m3/s)
10 year 10 year
80
5 year 5 year
120
2 year 2 year
60
80
40

40
20

0 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Time (hr) Time (hr)

D-9-1+D-9-2
200 Residual Basin Dombosayung-Dolok
100 year
50 year
160
25 year
Discharge (m3/s)

10 year
5 year
120
2 year

80

40

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Time (hr)

Figure 6.2.6 Hydrograph of Residual Basin Dombo-Sayung-Dolok

Dolok: Catchment area [D-10],[D-11], [D-12]

D-10 Dolok Upstream1 D-11 Dolok Upstream2

450 100
100 year 90 100 year
400
50 year 50 year
350 25 year 80 25 year
Discharge (m3/s)

Discharge (m3/s)

10 year 70 10 year
300 5 year 5 year
2 year 60 2 year
250
50
200
40
150 30
100 20
50 10
0 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Time (hr) Time (hr)

D-12 Dolok Downstream

100
90 100 year
50 year
80 25 year
Discharge (m3/s)

70 10 year
5 year
60 2 year
50
40
30
20
10
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Time (hr)

Figure 6.2.7 Hydrograph of Dolok River

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6.3 Hydrodynamic Model (MIKE 11 HD Module)

In order to calculate a river flow (discharge) and a water level, the one-dimensional unsteady
flow analysis is conducted. In this Study, MIKE 11 HD module is applied. The outline of
hydrodynamic model is shown in Table 6.3 .4. In this study, full dynamic model shall be
employed for hydraulic calculation.

Table 6.3.4 Outline of Hydrodynamic Model

Classification Description
One-dimensional unsteady flow (fully dynamic)
Hydraulic Model
DHI-MIKE11 HD module
River Network Refer to Figure 6.3 .9
Cross Section River Cross Section surveyed in the Study (2015)
Structures KBT Inlet Gate, Pucanggading Weir, Gergagi Weir, Barang Weir
Upstream: Calculated hydrograph with the runoff model
Boundary Condition
Downstream: Mean High Water Spring: MHWS (0.6 m)

Source:Study Team
Figure 6.3.8 Image of Unsteady River Flow

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Existing River Network

System
Jawa Sea

D-8-1~8-3 D-9-1~9-2

D-8-4

D-12
D-5

D-6
- Inlet Gate of BKT
- Pucanggading weir Babon )
- Gergagi weir (at D

(at Dombo -sayung )

-

Garang weir
D-1
D-1
1

D-10

:1D River Steam line :Inlet of

(M11) Runoff
Figure 6.3.9 Hydrodynamic Model Network in the Penggaron – Dolok River System
(1) River Cross Section
The river cross section which is used for the calculation of flow capacity is employed for
a hydrodynamic model.
Refer to 3.1.3 about river cross sectional survey.
(2) River Structures
River structures including weirs and flood gates are incorporated in the flood routine
model to estimate water level and discharge more properly. Those structures influence
flow regimes during floods. Table 6.3 .5 shows the facilities built in the river routine
model.

Table 6.3.5 River Facilities in River Routine Model

No. Name Location Remarks
Inlet gate of KBT KBT: STA 0+000m Existing
1
Diversion point at KBT Established
Pucanggading Weir Babon River: STA 0+000m Existing
2
Established
Gergagi Weir Dombo-Sayung River: STA 0+000m Existing
3
Established
4 Barang Weir Kebon Batur Canal: STA 0+000m Existing

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(3) Boundary Condition

In an unsteady flow analysis, boundary conditions are given at upstream/downstream end
and to the middle of river network as shown in Figure 6.3 .10.
At the riverhead and dam site, calculated hydrograph or released water from dams shall
be given as the upper boundary condition. At the lowland area where sub-basin runoff
flows into the river separately, calculated runoff shall be distributed equally along the
rivers/canals (See Figure 6.3 .10).

Runoff model
(SCS)

Discharge
(m3/s) Released water
Runoff model t from dam
(SCS)

Hydrodynamic model
(MIKE11)
unsteady flow analysis

Tidal level at down stream

Figure 6.3.10 Boundary Condition in the Unsteady Flow Analysis

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6.4 Inundation Analysis

6.4.1 Structure of Inundation Analysis Model
The flood inundation analysis is carried out with MIKE FLOOD. MIKE FLOOD is the interface
of flood analysis and combines the one-dimensional river flow model (MIKE11 HD module)
and the two-dimensional inundation model (MIKE 21). By using MIKE FLOOD, inundation
areas and depths etc. are computed. The results from MIKE FLOOD can also be utilized for
evaluation of flood control effect. For example, MIKE FLOOD can simulate storage functions
of a natural retarding basin in the upstream.
A two-dimensional unsteady flow analysis model can simulate the inundation phenomenon in
floodplains. In the Study, MIKE21 is applied for such analysis. The outline of the model is
shown in Table 6.4 .6 and Figure 6.4.1.
Table 6.4.6 Outline of the Inundation Analysis Model
No. Items Contents
1 Software MIKE-FLOOD (DHI)
2 Grid Size 50m
Modeling Area X: 432213.29- 455863.29
3 Y: 9217108.90 – 9243608.90
(coordinate system: WGS84 UTM Zone 49S)
4 Elevation Based on SRTM-DEM (3sec)
5 Roughness Coefficient Set up based on land use condition in 2014

1 【 One-Dimensional 2 【 Overflow Model 】

Unsteady Flow Model 】 Determine the occurrence of flooding by comparingCalculate thelevel
river water amount
and of overflow
dike height.at the ove
Simulate velocity, discharge and water level at every time step (ΔT).

3 【 Two-Dimensional
Unsteady Flow Model 】
Develop “Protected Inland Model”. Input Data: aver
Run “Two Dimensional unsteady Flow Model” to si

Dike

River Channel Protected Inland

Figure 6.4.11 Schematic Diagram of Inundation Analysis Model

6.4.2 Model Parameters

(1) Elevation of Flood Plain
The reliability of inundation analysis highly depends on the accuracy of ground
elevation. In this Study, a calculation grid is prepared based on the elevation data
measured by Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) (see Figure 6.4.2).

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Figure 6.4.12 Elevation Map (SRTM 3 second)

(2) Roughness Coefficients in Floodplain

The roughness coefficients in the floodplain are determined for each calculation grid
according to the existing land use condition and vegetation cover. The standard values of
roughness coefficients which have been employed for Japanese river basins are given in
Table 6.4 .7.
Table 6.4.7 The standard values of Roughness Coefficient
Standard value of
No Land Use
Manning’s n
1 Agriculture 0.06
2 Road 0.047
3 Others 0.05

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6.5 Flood simulation for the Present Conditions

The result of flood simulation (MIKE-FLOOD) is shown in Figure 6.5 .13 in which is 50-year
return period. To understand the flooding conditions in different flood scale including
discharge, inundated area and inundation depth, additional flood simulations are done. In the
study, the flood simulations under 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year and 100-year return
period are conducted (refer to AnnexI-6).
The discharge at Pucanggading weir is shown in Figure 6.5 .14 and Figure 6.5 .15. The
discharge is 550m3/s for 50 year return period. To evaluate the design discharge for Dolok-
Penggaron River System, the river discharge was estimated under closing Kebon Batur weir
during flood situation.
The probable peak discharge which was observed discharge at Pucanggading weir is 553m 3/s
for 50-year return period (refer to 3.3.6). The calculated discharge at Pucanggading weir is
basically similar to the probable peak discharge.

【50-year return period】

Existing river condition

95m3/s
Inflow from 120m3/s
Drainage basin Inflow from
Drainage basin

30m3/s

40m3/s

90m3/s 270m3/s

145m3/s
135m3/s

Q=550m3/s 145m3/s

660m3/s 55m3/s

200m3/s : Flow direction

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Figure 6.5.13 Simulated Inundation Area (50 Year Return Period)

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≪Existing condition: Kebon Batur Canal is opened.≫

River discharge at Pucanggading weir

600
Q=550m3/s
500
Discharge (m3/s)

400

300

200

100

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Figure 6.5.14 Flood Hydrograph at Pucanggading Weir (50-Year Return Period)

≪Plan condition: Kebon Batur Canal is closed during flood.≫

 The peak discharge at Pucanggading weir is 530m3/s when Garang weir is
closed during flood.

River discharge at Pucanggading weir

600
Q=530m3/s
500
Discharge (m3/s)

400

300

200

100

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Figure 6.5.15 Flood Hydrograph at Pucanggading Weir (50-Year Return Period)

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*DO NOT PRINT THIS PAGE

内容
エラー! 文書が自己参照を行っています。 1
Chapter 6. Flood Simulation Model....................................................................................6–1
6.1 Model Structure..............................................................................................................6–1
6.2 Runoff Analysis..............................................................................................................6–2
6.2.1 Structure of Runoff Model..................................................................................6–2
6.2.2 Runoff Model.....................................................................................................6–3
6.2.3 Result of Runoff Analysis...................................................................................6–5
6.3 Hydrodynamic Model (MIKE 11 HD Module)...............................................................6–8
6.4 Inundation Analysis.......................................................................................................6–11
6.4.1 Structure of Inundation Analysis Model...........................................................6–11
6.4.2 Model Parameters.............................................................................................6–11
6.5 Flood simulation for the Present Conditions.................................................................6–13

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