#7.

54

a) Marginal probability distribution

P (refrigerators - 0) = 0.08 + 0.09 + 0.05 = 0.22
P (refrigerators - 1) = 0.14 + 0.17 + 0.18 = 0.49
P (refrigerators - 2) = 0.12 + 0.13 + 0.04 = 0.29

b) P (stoves - 0) = 0.08 + 0.14 + 0.12 = 0.34

P (stoves - 1) = 0.09 + 0.17 + 0.13 = 0.39
P (stoves - 2) = 0.05 + 0.18 + 0.04 = 0.27

c) Mean = µ = 0*0.22 + 1*0.49 + 2*0.29 = 1.07

Variance σ^2 = (0.22*(0 – 1.07)^2 + 0.49*(1 – 1.07)^2 + 0.29*(2 – 1.07)^2 ) = 0.505

d) Mean = µ = 0*0.34 + 1*0.39 + 2*0.27 = 0.93

Variance σ^2 = (0.34*(0 – 0.93)^2 + 0.39*(1 – 0.93)^2 + 0.27*(2 – 0.93)^2 ) = 0.605

e) Cov = 0*0*0.08 + 0*0*0.09 + 0*0*0.05 + 1*0*0.14 + 1*1*0.17 + 1*2*0.18 +

2*0*0.12 + 2*1*0.13 + 2*2*0.04 = 0.95
Cov (X;Y)= 0.95 – (1.07*0.93) = - 0.0451 approximately – 0.05
Coefficient of correlation P = - 0.05 / (0.71*0.77) = 0.08
Root from 0.505 = 0.71
Root from 0.605 = 0.77

#7.55
Refer to Exercise 7.54. Find the following conditional probabilities.
a) P(1 refrigerator | 0 stoves)
b) P(0 stoves | 1 refrigerator)
c) P(2 refrigerators | 2 stoves)
Solution:
P (A and B)/P(A) = P(B|A)
a) 0.14/0.32=0.438
b) 0.14/0.49=0.286
c) 0.04/0.27=0.148
#7.56
 Solution:
a) P(0;1) = 0.06
b) P(2;0) = 0
c) 0.07 + 0.01 + 0.10 + 0.15 + 0.04 +0.02 = 0.39

#6.64
Refer to Exercise 6.48. The plant manager randomly selects a mouldingfrom the early
morning run and discovers it is defective. What is the probabilitythat the foreman forgot to
shut off the machine the previous night?
(#6.48 A foreman for an injection-molding firm admits that on 10% of his shifts, he forgets to
shut off the injection machine on his line. This causes the machine to overheat, increasing the
probability from 2% to 20% that a defective molding will be produced during the early
morning run. What proportion of mouldings from the early morning run is defective?
A _ to leave turned on
B _ being defective
A0_ to leave turned off
B0_ being not defective
P (A|B) = 0.1*0.2=0.02
P (A0|B) = 0.9*0.02=0.018
P (B) = 0.02+0.018=0.038)
Solution:
P (A|B) = P (A and B) / P (B) = 0.020/0.038 = 0.526

#6.67
Bad gums may mean a bad heart. Researchers discovered that 85% of people who have
suffered a heart attack had periodontal disease, an inflammation of the gums. Only 29% of
healthy people have this disease. Suppose that in a certain community heart attacks are quite
rare, occurring with only 10% case, what is the probability that an individual will have a heart
attack?
H _ heart attack D _ disease
P (D|H) = 0.85
P (D|H0) = 0.29
P (H) = 0.1
P (H|D) =?
Solution:
P (H|D) = P (H and D) / P (D)
P (D) = (0.1 * 0.85) + (0.9 * 0.29) = 0.346
P (H and D) = 0.85 * 0.1 = 0.085
P (H|D) = 0.085/0.346=0.246

#6.70
Three airlines serve a small town in Ohio. Airline A has 50% of all the scheduled flights,
airline B has 30% and airline C has the remaining 20%.Their on time rates are 80%, 65% and
40%, respectively. A plane has just lefton time. What is the probability that it was airline A?
Solution:
P (A|D) =?
P (A|D) = P (A and D) / P (D)
D _ fly on time
P (A) = 0.5 P (A and D) = 0.5*0.8 = 0.4
P (B) = 0.3 P (B and D) = 0.3*0.65 = 0.195
P (C) = 0.2 P (C and D) = 0.2*0.4 = 0.08
P (D|A) = 0.8
P (D|B) = 0.65
P (D|C) = 0.4
P (D) = 0.4+0.195+0.08 = 0.675
P (A|D) = 0.4/0.675 = 0.593

#8.81
Because automatic banking machine (ABM) customers can perform a number of transactions,
the times to complete them can be quite variable. A banking consultant has noted that the
times are exponentially distributed with a mean of 125 seconds. What proportion of the ABM
customers take more than 3 minutes to do their banking?
Solution:
125sec=125/60=2.083min
Λ(lambda)=1/2.083=0.48
P(x>3) =e-Λx=e-0.48*3=0.237

exponential
P(x>0) = e-Λx
P(x<0) = 1 - e-Λx

#8.82
The manager of a supermarket tracked the amount of time needed forcustomers to be served
by the cashier. After checking with his statisticsprofessor, he concluded that the checkout
times are exponentially distributedwith a mean of 6 minutes. What proportion of customers
require more than 10minutes to check out?
Solution:
Λ(lambda)=1/6=0.166
P(x>10) =e-Λx=e-0.166*10=0.19

#8.83
A Jiffy Lube franchise manager is concerned about the amount of time it takes for his
technicians to change the oil and filters of cars. The current mean time for the complete
operation is 18 minutes. He hasn’t kept track of the number of times his employees took more
than 30 minutes to complete a car, but he knows that the probability is too high. There are
several ways to reduce the mean time. Determine the mean time necessary to reduce the
probability that a job takes longer than 30 minutes to 10%.
Solution:
Λ(lambda)=1/18=0.55
X=30
P (x>x) = 0.1
Λ= -ln(p(x>x)) / x = -ln0.1 / 30 = 2.303 / 30 = 0.0767

#12.54
 a) n=100
P^=0.73

√
p∗(1−P)
Z= P^ - P /
n
= 0.73 – 0.7 /
P-value =(Z>o.65)=1-0.7422=0.2578
√
0.7∗(1−0.7)
100
=0.65

b) n=100
P^=0.72
Z= P^ - P /
√
p∗(1−P)
n
= 0.72 – 0.7 /
P-value = Z>0.44=1-0.6700=0.3300
√
0.7∗(1−0.7)
100
=0.44

Z= P^ - P /
√
p∗(1−P)
n
= 0.71 – 0.7 /
P-value = Z>0.22=1-0.5871
√
0.7∗(1−0.7)
100
=0.22

c) As p-value increases z is decreases.

#12.62
A statistics practitioner working for major league baseball wants to supply radio and
television commentators with interesting statistics. He observed several hundred games and
counted the number of times a runner on first base attempted to steal second base. He found
there were 373 such events of which 259 were successful. Estimate with 95% confidence the
proportion of all attempted thefts of second base that are successful.
Solution:
n=373
x=259
373 * x/100 = 259
X= 69
p^ = 0.69

Confidence Interval Estimator of p = 0.69+-1.96

LCL=0.6431 UCL=0.7369
√ 0.69∗(1−0.69)
373
= 0.69+ - 0.0469

#12.63
In some states, the law requires drivers to turn on their headlights when driving in the rain. A
motorway patrol officer believes that less than one-quarter of all drivers follow this rule. As a
test, he randomly samples 200 cars driving in the rain and counts the number whose
headlights are turned on. He finds this number to be 41. Does the officer have enough
evidence at the 10% significance level to support his belief?
Solution:
H0: p = 0.25

H1: p < 0.25

^p = 41/200 = 0.205

p^ −p 0. 205−0. 25
z= =−1.47 ,
√ p(1−p )/n = √0 .25(1−0 .25)/200 p-value = P(Z < –1.47) = 0.0708. There is enough

evidence to support the officer’s belief.

#17.3
The CEO of a company that manufactures drywall wants toanalyse the variables that affect
demand for his product. Drywall is used toconstruct walls in houses and offices. The CEO
decides to develop a regression model in which the dependent variable is monthly sales of
drywall(in hundreds of sheets) and the independent variables are as follows:
Number of building permits issued in the countyFive year mortgage rates (in percentage
points)Vacancy rate in apartments (in percentage points)Vacancy rate in office buildings (in
percentage points)To estimate a multiple regression model, he took monthly observations
fromthe past 2 years.

a) Analyse the data using multiple regression.

b) What is the standard error of estimate? Can you use this statistic to assessthe model’s
fit? If so, how?
Standard error of estimate _ s ε = 40.13. it estimates standard deviation of the error
variable
 c) What is the coefficient of determination, and what does it tell you about theregression
model?
2
The coefficient of determination is R = 0.8935; 89.35% of the variation in monthly sales of
drywall is explained by the model.

d) Test the overall validity of the model.

H0: β1 = β2 = β3 = β4 = 0
H1: is at least one and β i is not equal to zero
F = 39.86
P_value = 0
We have enough evidence to be model valid.

e) Interpret each of the coefficients.

b1 = 4.76
For each additional building sales increase by 4.76 and other variables remains
constant.
b2 = 16.99; for each addition one point increase in mortgage rates monthly sales on average increase

by 16.99 hundred sheets provided that the other variables remain constant.

b3 = –10.53; for each one percentage point increase in the apartment vacancy rate monthly sales

decrease on average by 10.53 hundred sheets provided that the other variables remain constant.

b 4 = 1.31; for each one percentage point increase in the office vacancy rate monthly sales increase

on average by 1.31 hundred sheets provided that the other variables remain constant.

f) Test to determine whether each of the independent variables is linearlyrelated to

drywall demand in this model.

H 0 : β i= 0

H 1 : βi ¿ 0

Permits: t = 12.06, p-value = 0

Mortgage: t = 1.12, p-value = 0.2764

A Vacancy: t = –1.65, p-value = 0.1161

O Vacancy: t = 0.47, p-value = 0.6446

Only the number of building permits is linearly related to monthly sales.

Next month’s drywall sales are predicted to lie between 16,710 and 35,290 sheets.

#17.4

The general manager of the Clevel and Indians baseball team is inthe process of determining
which minor league players to draft. He is aware that his team needs home run hitters and
would like to find a way to predict the number of home runs a player will hit. Being an astute
statistician, he gathers a random sample of players and records the number of home runs each
player hit in his first two full years as a major league player, the number of home runs he hit
in his last full year in the minor leagues, his age and the number of years of professional
baseball.
a) Develop a regression model and use a software package to produce the statistics.

b) Interpret each of the coefficients.

 b1 = 0.666; for each additional minor league home run the number of major league home

runs increases on average by 0.666 provided that the other variables remain constant.
b2 = 0.136; for each additional year of age the number of major league home runs increases

on average by 0.14 provided that the other variables remain constant.

b3 = 1.18; for each additional year as a professional the number of major league home runs

increases on average by 1.18 provided that the other variables remain constant.

c) How well does the model fit?

s ε = 6.99 and R2 = 0.3511; the model’s fit is not very good.

d) Test the model’s validity.

H0: β1 = β2 = β3 = 0

H1: At least one β i is not equal to zero

F = 22.01, p-value = 0. There is enough evidence to conclude that the model is valid.

e) Do each of the independent variables belong in the model?

H 0 : β i= 0

H 1 : βi ¿ 0

Minor league home runs: t = 7.64, p-value = 0

Age: t = 0.26, p-value = 0.7961
Years professional: t = 1.75, p-value = 0.0819

f) Calculate the 95% interval of the number of home runs in the first twoyears of players
who are 25 years old, has played professional baseball for7 years and hit 22 home
runs in his last year in the minor leagues.
At the 5% significance level only the number of minor league home runs is linearly related to the
number of major league home runs.

g) Calculate the 95% interval of the expected number of home runs in the firsttwo years
of players who are 27 years old, have played professionalbaseball for 5 years and hit
18 home runs in their last year in the minors.

It is estimated that the average player will hit between 14.66 and 24.47 home runs.