Trends Network Weeks 1 2 Concept Notes
Trends Network Weeks 1 2 Concept Notes
Trends Network Weeks 1 2 Concept Notes
V. References:
Print Material/s:
Wired! Trends, Networks, And Critical Thinking Skills in the 21 st Century
A Textbook on Humanities and Social Sciences
Renato T. Dela Cruz, et. al, pages 2-36
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VI. Concept notes with formative activities
In this lesson, you will explore the meaning of trends and how they operate as
forces for social change in many communities and societies in the world today.
Various trends, both micro and macro, operate as sources of change and
development for individuals, organizations, and institutions. Many of these trends
shape tomorrow’s right before us. These trends are also products of humanity’s
creative thinking. As human beings evolve, we become sophisticated and complex in
our choices and decisions. We become knowledgeable and informed in our daily
actions. It takes a serious study to look at the patterns and trends of the choices and
actions we make. Awareness of these trends, knowing their elements and
characteristics, can propel the assertion of people’s collective identity, social
responsibility, and global interconnectedness. As global citizens, you will need to
respond and act on some of these trends as a necessary condition of engaged
critical thinking.
Rapid change is a constant feature of our lives. One can see the various
evidence of development in our society, which include scientific, technological,
social, and political transformations, that will continue to influence human lives in the
future. In our present world, which is intensified by the globalization process, we
know that the future generation will be different from that of the present in so many
ways. Rapid changes in technologies, legislation, and social values can alter or
damage traditional lifestyles, communities, and the way we relate ourselves better in
the face of these giant leaps of humanity, it is imperative to study trends both in the
local and global scenes for us to survive. We can be recipients of these trends or key
players in some instances that are beneficial for our survival as individuals,
organizations, and communities. The earlier and clearer we discern trends, the more
we benefit by changing our current recipes for success to keep up with the changes
in the world.
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A trend is a sequential pattern of change in recorded data- a change
evidenced by a rise or fall of variables when measured between at least two points
over time (Gordon, 2008). If we can measure poverty being eradicated yearly for the
past five years, then we have a trend. If we see more couples deciding to get
married later in life in 2016 compared with couples in 2010, we have a trend. In
short, a pattern in the data must be indicative and significant to be commonly
considered a trend. Trends must pass basic tests of significance; they must create a
change that affects a wide range of people; as such, they have broad social,
economic, cultural, spiritual, and political implications.
A trend in the global scale is called megatrend. Megatrends are not always
created by the majority, but are typically followed by a majority of society.
Megatrends adhere to the economic principle of globalization as a primary force for
change and growth in the world today. Megatrends continue to shape and transform
our economic, political, social, and cultural lives. In manufacturing, we can see the
changes in competition as countries form economic alliances that will ensure their
survival in the global competition.
Here are some of the megatrends identified by Naisbitt (1982) and Patricia
Aburdene (1990):
Moreover, many of the biggest movements in the world today began with
small forces of change. Microtrends are introduced as the most powerful forces in
our society (Penn, 2007). These are small forces that can stir big changes in
communities, institutions, and societies around the world. Usually, these forces are
emergent and unexpected to shape before us. This is attributed in the power of
Individual choice over trends that we are trying to understand. It takes serious study
to discern these patterns that heavily influence our choices. These microtrends
advocate localizations as opposed to globalization. They recognize that people and
communities have never been more sophisticated and more knowledgeable about
the choices they make in their everyday lives. In today’s world, it is an ongoing
challenge for humanity to clearly understand the identity and growth of groups and
organizations that are moving in varied directions.
FADS
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Fads are transitory and very limited in scope. They only affect a particular
group or region and have no long-term implications. For example, the use of the
Jejemon language in the Philippines has been famous, but short-lived. A Jejemon is
a person who makes the English language difficult to read and understand. The
language is popular to youngsters who call themselves different, but happy because
of their language and clothing style. But the fad did not last long and reached a brief
maturity stage.
Furthermore, analysts observe that trends interlock and reinforce each other.
Since globalization is a major global trend, it propels other trends like lifestyle trends,
different nations integrating in the global economy and supply chains, and the heavy
influx of people into the cities looking for jobs and employment.
Looking at the phenomenal Facebook and Twitter. These major social media
networks have stunning billions of active users as a new way to connect with people
all across the globe. As a social trend, these major social media platforms constantly
change the way we relate and communicate. Indeed, trends are constantly
changing and evolving and many institutions and organizations use their ability to
anticipate these changes as part of their strategies and survival.
Scanners particularly look at the periphery of media where new ideas are
more likely to make their first appearance. For example, while technology and
globalization were not discernible as an issue on network television and in national
papers in the 1960s, it was being reported far earlier in economic and political
journals. Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) was not noticeable until in
the 1980s, but it was being reported far earlier in medical journals. Spotting a trend is
more than just being aware of what people say, but more importantly on what they
do. While a scanner may consider the pronouncement of the government on the
increase of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), he/she is also sensitive to the
number of protest-callers, of people who are excluded from his growth, and the
increasing involvement of public officials in graft and corruption cases. As always,
actions speak louder than words.
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Scanning comes first before spotting a trend. After all materials are gathered,
they are analyzed and contextualized for trend significance. From each new event or
data point, the analyst will be asking the following:
Projecting Trends
When a trend is identified, the next logical step is to ask, “Where is this trend
heading in the future?” Trend-based projection is the main business of forecasting
and the most common basis of prediction among professional forecasters by far.
Trend projection is also skeptical. It simply recognizes the movement of a trend into
the future and neglect the cause of these events. For example, we do not have to
debate why people are choosing to migrate to other countries and what they are
doing there. We can simply notice that there is a migration trend and forecast this in
the future. Trend projection assumes that what happened in the past will occur in the
future.
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Drivers, Enablers, Friction, and Blockers
Blockers may take the form of new law, politicking, street protests, and other
factors. They occur when people try to stop a change or delay it. For example, the
proposed Freedom of Information Bill in the Philippines aims to require the
disclosure of public documents and how to access them. The right to information is
enshrined in the 1987 Philippine Constitution requiring for transparency and
accountability, but it has been 29 years since the first bill of this kind was filed in
Congress, but until now it remains a struggle of the many contradictions in Philippine
society. The future is clearly to recognize the power of information and the valued
participation of the people in public affairs, yet there are many blockers that impede
change.
The global village has major categories of driving forces and blockers. Each
category breaks down into many subcategories and factors that will have change-
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driving or blocking properties. A good forecast will investigate each of these
categories and provide a sense of the balance of power for and against the trend.
1. Technology. It is the most powerful force for change in the world today. It
provides new capabilities that make change possible in products and
services, solutions, and business models. Better technologies allow us to do
more for less and make changes on how we do things. When technology fails
to offer a solution to a problem or change that it creates, then it becomes a
blocker of change.
2. Powerful individuals and powerful organizations. There are celebrated
and charismatic figures in history like Jesus of Nazareth and Nelson Mandela
who significantly changed the future. They radically changed the course of
history through their teachings and principles that drew millions of followers
around the world. Jesus proclaimed that the Kingdom of God is characterized
by peace, justice, and integrity of creation, while Mandela advocated equality
and respect by ending apartheid. When the force of individuals is combined
with institutional power of government, military, or corporate power, the more
it can expedite change or block them.
3. Ideas and ideologies. Our ideas and ideologies compel and drive us to
actions in the future weather there are in the social, political, economic, and/or
technological arena. Ideas and ideologies such as democracy and
environmental advocacy may be driving and blocking forces for change.
Moreover, ideas may be imaginative, attempting to change the future by
changing existing trends, while other ideologies tend to be different and in
conflict with each other, resulting to clash over what kind of future would be
more ideal and livable. This shows that ideas and ideologies may strengthen
or weaken a trend.
4. Social and moral values. These are related to ideas, but have a slightly
different function because values generally change very slowly, if at all, so
they mostly apply brakes on the future. Often, social values are the “last line
of defense” against a rush of technology capabilities that may or may not lead
us to questionable places. There are many things we can do – cloning
humans, for example- where we ask ourselves, is this what we want to do? In
the case of ideologies, different social groups and different societies
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representing different values may make different choices, so conflicts of
values surface over whether we should block the future or not. Often, social
values are institutionalized in the form of regulation, where the courts or
government enforces a position that may block the future.
The pattern to determine a trend in any issue must pass the basic test of
significance so that it can create change to a wide range of people and have broad
social, economic, and political implications. The women’s movement in the 1960s
that empowered women is a trend. The Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender or
LGBT community asserting their rights and dignity for decades finally getting legal
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approval from the State is a trend. Unlike fads, which are transitory and quick and
affect specific groups in a very short time, trends are significant and have broad
implications in all aspects of society.
Look at the future of work. Years ago, we did not have the internet and there
were no social media networks. The jobs we find today are nonexistent decades
ago. Work trends are so dynamic. We do not know what jobs will exist in the next
twenty years. The people out of work today will soon find jobs again, but their job
descriptions will not be the same. Global work trends include the concept of location;
people can work together anywhere and mobile devices; and Skype has made long
distance call virtually free. Location does not matter because businesses can tap
experts and contractors around the world. Crowdsourcing makes Wikipedia’s 13
million articles written and maintained by a pool of contributors. Many businesses are
choosing contract relationships over hiring new employees.
1. What is a trend?
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
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_____________________________________.
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______________________________________________________________
_____________________________________.
Task 2
6 7
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Crossword Puzzle:
.
ACROSS
3- a revolutionary ideas in the 1960s
4- he coined the term megatrends
5- a sequential pattern of change in recorded data
6- happened when there is a trend
8- the age of Biology makes great progress
9- small forces that can stir big changes in communities
10 - large-scale, sustained shift in whatever is being measured
DOWN
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1 – rapid growth in participation in the fine and finer arts
2- a basic test of a trend
7- a primary force for change and growth in the world today
Task 3
Using the matrix below, can you identify some trends that had somehow
changed our lives and the way we see things? The first column (What?) identifies
currently popular trends in the country, while the second column (So What?)
considers the trends listed in the first column and answers these questions: Why do
they matter? What difference do these facts or ideas make in people’s lives? The
third column (Now What?) asks what they can do about these trends.
Microtrend Megatrend
Trends
Why?
Why?
The growing number of
international students
presents a challenge for
administrators and
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educators in terms of their
preparation to live and
work in a globalizing
world.
The number of left-
handed people in Asia
has doubled in two
generations.
Mr. Ato dela Cruz has a
made-to-order car
delivered to him in less
than a month.
A cultural shift toward
healthier living among
Asians.
ASEAN Integration
Stay-at-home workers.
Mothers over 45 years old
are the fastest growing
group of DOTA players.
The rise of fast food
businesses.
A coffee shop becomes
popular because it allows
people to make their
choice of coffee, their
milk, and their sweetener.
iPods are popular
because they let us pick
and choose our own
songs.
Task 5
Answer the following:
1. How is a trend different from a fad?
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_____________________________________.
2. Consider the fads inside the boxes. What are their similarities and
characteristics?
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_____________________________________.
Pokemon Yo-yos
Task 6
2. When you identify it, what have caused this trend to start?
______________________________________________________________
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______________________________________________________________
_____________________________________.
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______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
_____________________________________.
CHALLENGE YOURSELF
Task 7
Using the 4S Trendspotting Model (Rehn and Lindkvist, 2013), make a trend
analysis of poverty in your country for the last decade.
Task 8
Imagine yourself being an award recipient. You have won an award entitled,
“Outstanding Trendspotter of the Decade” or “School Trendspotter.” Your task now is
to write an acceptance speech. In it, you must tell how the knowledge you have
acquired as a trendspotter helps you become what and who you are.
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Task 9
Decide what single word or single sentence, in your opinion, is the most
important thing that can be said about trends.
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
________________________________________________.
LEVEL UP
Task 10
From the four enumerated major categories of driving forces and blockers,
make a comprehensive forecast on each and identify change driving and blocking
properties.
Properties Forecast
(Where is this
Global Forces Blocking
Change-Driving trend heading to
Properties
the future?)
Technology
Powerful individuals
and organizations
Ideas and
ideologies
Social and moral
values
The following questions may aid your forecasting using the 4S Model
Trendspotting:
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5. How could we find out if that is true?
Task 11
Elements/Characteristics of a Trend
Existing Emerging
1. 1.
2. 2.
3. 3.
4. 4.
5. 5.
6. 6.
7. 7.
8. 8.
9. 9.
10. 10.
Task 12
In less than a decade, many trends are recognized to be rooted in our daily
lives. These trends revolutionize individual lives, communities, and societies. These
changes equate to great opportunities for humanity. We can prosper from them if we
can spot and adapt to these major global and societal transformative changes, which
trendspotters call megatrends.
Here are some megatrends based on a recently completed Frost and Sullivan
analysis entitled, “World’s Top Global Megatrends to 2025 and Implications to
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Business, Society and Cultures.” Can you supply the micro implications of these
megatrends? How do these big trends affect our day-to-day existence?
Urbanization
Cities are being transformed into
mega cities, mega regions, and even
mega corridors. Mahatma Gandhi once
said, “India is to be found not in its
cities, but in its 700,000 villages.”
Changing Social Trends
Changing social trends like
iGeneration, migration, brain drain,
aging population, women’s rights,
ecological movements, and
globalization will stir up deep
socioeconomic impact in the near
future.
Health, Wellness, and Well-being
Many countries are reinventing the
notion of health care and quality of life
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as they address health care costs
among the majority of their population.
Human well-being will shift to the
wellness not just of the body, but also of
the mind and soul.
Innovating to Zero
The world’s future energy needs a
“miracle” to avoid planetary destruction,
that is why many world leaders and
visionaries shift to the mega vision of
“zero concept,” where products and
innovative technologies come to real
life: zero emissions, zero defects, zero
casualties, and zero accidents.
Smart is the New Green
The shift in smart products will
definitely improve efficiency and
optimize operations in organizations
and companies in the world. Smart
products in clothing, watches, and
phones are advance sensing
technologies that has the capability to
understand process and report allowing
the product to react and communicate
to the changing environment.
Value for Many
With the increasing access to the
internet and mobile subscriptions, the
“value for many” business mode
becomes a trend where one can make a
product, sell, and connect many. The
concept of “make one, sell, and connect
many” encourages businesses to
produce and sell the same products
globally using the Internet or mobile
devices.
Future of Energy
The planet has a wealth of energy
resources to choose from including
renewable energy technologies. These
energy sources, albeit may not be
considered today, will be the next
energy “wave” in the next few decades
showing the “decarbonization” trend and
highlight the use of hydrogen, which
humanity started in wood, followed by
coal, then in oil, next in gas, and
hopefully in pure hydrogen and solar
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energy.
These trends are based on a recently completed Frost and Sullivan analysis
entitled, “World’s Top Global Mega Trends to 2025 and Implications to Business,
Society and Cultures (2014 Edition).”
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