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Program Evaluation and Review Technique

PERT is a network technique that uses a network diagram of events to determine if a job can be completed by a given date. It estimates activity times optimistically, pessimistically, and most likely to calculate an expected time. The critical path is identified as the longest path through activities with zero total float. The probability of completing a project by a target date is calculated using the expected completion time and standard deviation of the critical path.

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190 views7 pages

Program Evaluation and Review Technique

PERT is a network technique that uses a network diagram of events to determine if a job can be completed by a given date. It estimates activity times optimistically, pessimistically, and most likely to calculate an expected time. The critical path is identified as the longest path through activities with zero total float. The probability of completing a project by a target date is calculated using the expected completion time and standard deviation of the critical path.

Uploaded by

Sourav c
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Program Evaluation and Review Technique

PERT is a network technique which uses a network diagram consisting of events.


the main objective of this technique is to find out whether a job could be finished
on a given date. PERT system is preferred for those projects or operations which
are of non repetitive nature or for those projects in which precise time
determination for various activities cannot be made. the main assumption in PERT
is that activity duration are independent. That is time required for one activity has
nothing to do with the time for another activity.

In PERT calculation three time estimates are used.

1. The Optimistic Time Estimate ( to ) : This is the shortest possible time in which
an activity can be completed, under ideal conditions.

2. The Pessimistic Time Estimate ( tp) : It is the maximum time that would be
required to complete the activity even if everything went wrong and abnormal
situations prevailed.

3. The Most Likely Time Estimate (tm ): It is the time which the activity will take
most frequently, if performed a number of times. This time estimate lies between
the optimistic and pessimistic time estimates.

The Expected Average Time based upon these three estimates is calculated using
the formula

te = (to + tp + 4 tm ) / 6

Steps Involved in PERT Calculation

1. Construct network diagram

2. Using to , tp and tm calculate te (Expected time estimate). te is considered as


activity duration in PERT.

3. Identify the critical activities


4. The path through the critical activities shows the critical path.

Probability of Project completion by a target date ( Z)

1. Find the Variance of time estimates of all activities.


2
Variance of each activity = tp - to

2. Find the Probability of project completion

Z = ( t - te ) / σ

where t = Due date

te = expected date of completion of project

σ = standard deviation of the critical path

= √ sum of the variances of critical activities


3. If the target date is beyond the estimated project duration, Z is positive and

Probability = .5 + table value of Z.

if the target date is before the estimated project duration, Z is negative and

Probability = .5 - table value of Z.

Example Question.

Probability of Project completion by a target date ( Z)

Example problem

From the following data find the critical path and the probability that the project
will be completed in 41 days.
Solution

Find the critical path using the same method as above

Find EST,EFT, LST, LFT and calculate total float. Zero float activities in this example
are 1-2, 2-3, 3-5, and 5-8. So this is considered as critical path for the project and
the duration of critical path (te) is 36 days ( 7+14 + 11+ 4)
Now we have to calculate the probability of project completion in 41 days.

For that first have to calculate variance for each activity

Now find Z

Z = ( t - te ) / σ

where t = Due date

te = expected date of completion of project


σ = standard deviation of the critical path

= √ sum of the variances of critical activities

In the above example t = 41 days (given in the question)

te = 36 days (duration of critical path)

σ = √ sum of the variances of critical activities


Critical activities are 1-2, 2-3, 3-5, and 5-8. The variance of critical activities are
already calculated in the above table and are obtained as 4, 16, 4 and 1.

so , σ = √ 4+ 16 +4 +1
= √25 =5

So probability of completion of project in 41 days is

Z = ( 41 - 36) / 5

=1

When Z is positive then Probability = .5 + table value of Z.

Table value of Z =.3413 ( from the log book table of Standard Normal Curve,
Normal Distribution; take Z=1 (row wise ) and Column wise take 0 column always)
Only the row wise value changes depending on the Z value and column remains
the same

therefore Probability is .5+ .3413

= .8413

Assignment Questions

1. Assuming that the expected time is normally distributed find the critical path of
the project and also the probability of project completion in 31 days.

Activity to tm tp
1-2 2 5 14
1-3 9 12 15
2-4 5 14 17
3-4 2 5 8
3-5 8 17 20
4-5 6 9 12

2. Assuming that the expected time is normally distributed find the critical path of
the project and also the probability of project completion in 11 days and also in
16 days

Activity Preceding to tm tp
activity
A - 2 3 10
B - 2 3 4
C A 1 2 3
D A 4 6 14
E B 4 5 12
F C 3 4 5
G D,E 1 1 7

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