Week 01: Conceptualizing Transportation Planning

CEE 6505: Transportation Planning

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Islamic University of Technology (IUT), Bangladesh
Instructor
Moinul Hossain
Professor
Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Islamic University of Technology, Bangladesh
Education:
PhD in Built Environment, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan
M. Engg. in Built Environment, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan
M. Engg. in Transportation Engineering, AIT, Thailand
B. Sc. In Civil Engineering, BUET, Bangladesh
Experience:
15+ years of experience in Transportation Planning and Traffic
Engineering in Canada, Japan, Thailand, Malaysia, Uzbekistan, Nepal and
Bangladesh
Content
• Transportation Planning – Big Picture
• Urban Transportation Planning
• Multimodal Transportation Planning
• Planning – System Perspective
• Plan vs. Models
• Models and Decision Making
• What are we going to learn???
Let’s Plan! – Planning for World Ijtema Munajat
• Define the Problem
– Goal:
• What do we want to achieve?
– People should be able to get to/from the site with ease

– Objectives
• How do we know whether the goal is achieved or not?
• Something that can be measured
– Should be able to clear out the traffic within 2 hours

– Constrains
• Financial/Institutional
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Let’s Plan! – Planning for World Ijtema Munajat
• Generate Options and Strategies
– Increase Roadway Capacity:
• Build another road?
• Convert two-way streets to one-way streets –How many? Which ones?

– Provide Alternate Modes –Run a bus service

• How many buses to run?
• Where to?
• What should be the frequency of service?
• How much should we charge?
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Let’s Plan! – Planning for World Ijtema Munajat
• Evaluate Strategies

Scenario Objective Attained? Cost!

Dedicated Road May be
Intersection Improvement May be
Sustainable Mode of Transport May be

Do Nothing!

We will develop and use travel-demand models to answer this question 6

Transportation Planning – Goals
• Capacity
• Efficiency
• Sustainability
• Safety & Security
• Equity
• Health
• Resources
– Financial/Institutional/Personnel

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Aspects and Components
• What is Transportation?
– A movement of people and goods from one place to another to
accomplish some purposes.
• Aspects of Transportation:
– Mobility: The ability and knowledge to travel from one location to
another in a reasonable amount of time and for acceptable costs.
– Accessibility: The means by which an individual can accomplish some
economic or social activity through access to that activity.
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Aspects and Components

• Transportation system components

– Links: the roads or tracks connecting two or more points.
– Vehicles: the means of moving people and goods along a
link.
– Terminals: the nodes where travel and shipment begins or
ends.
– Management and labor: agencies who construct, operate,
manage, and maintain the links, vehicles, and terminals.

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Transportation Planning
• The role of transport planning is to ensure the satisfaction of a
certain demand
– for person and goods movements
– with different trip purposes,
– at different times of the day and the year,
– using various modes,
– given a transport system with a certain operating capacity.

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Transportation Planning
• The primary purpose of the planning
– to generate information useful to decision makers for the specific
types of decisions they face.

• Many agencies and groups are involved in transportation

decision making
– a regional perspective is needed on how these activities fit
together (institutional components of a project).
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Transportation Planning

Strategic Transportation Operational

Investment in Decision changes
facilities and Making
services

Technological changes 12
Transportation Planning
• The planning process is an opportunity to participate in
and influence the decision-making process that allocates
resources to achieve a desired set of goals.
• It provides a sense of where society is heading and how
transportation fits into this future.
• Planning links many individual decisions made by groups
and organizations into a common vision of how each will
help achieve a desired set of goals.
• Planning should help clarify and prioritize these goals.
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 Transportation Planning
• Propositions behind transportation planning (Decision-
oriented approach)

How did you select this course ???

Decision vs. plan Uncertainty Alternatives

• The products of planning should be designed to increase the chance of

making better decisions.
• The result of planning is some form of communication with decision makers.
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Transportation Planning

• The process of answering these questions:

– Where are we now (such as trends and conditions relating to
population, the transportation system, and the general state of
the urban area)?
– Where do we want to go (major issues, public outreach results,
obstacles, and opportunities)?
– What will guide us (mission statement, goals, objectives, public
input, and performance measures)?
– How will we get there (revenue estimation, project and program
implementation, public/private partnerships, and policy changes)?
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Urban Transportation Planning

• VISION: where and how does transportation system fits

into this vision?
• DECISIONS to make
• Opportunities and Limitations vs. Goals and Performance
• Near-and Long-term consequences
• Presenting in an understandable and useful form.
• Helping decision makers establish priorities and develop
an investment program.

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 Urban Transportation Planning – Challenges

• Urban sprawl
• Growing car ownership
• Increasing traffic congestion
• Improved energy/environmental technologies
but lower energy/environmental performances
• Increasing energy prices
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The Vicious Circle of Urban Decline
- More cars
- More congestion
- Slower PT

-Urban sprawl
- Lower PT quality - More people
- Less PT customers dependent on car use
- Lower PT revenue - More roads

- Decrease in PT
supply
- Inner cities are less
attractive
- Transfer of activities
to the outskirts
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Breaking The Vicious Circle

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Multimodal Perspective Planning

• The process of defining problems, identifying

alternatives, evaluating potential solutions and
selecting preferred actions that meet community
goals in a manner that includes all feasible
transportation modes.
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A Multimodal Transportation System

meet community goals in a manner that includes all feasible

transportation modes. 21
A Multimodal Transportation System

• There is no single solution to the transportation

problems facing a metropolitan area.

• A coordinated program of action is necessary to deal

with the complex nature and interactions of the
transportation phenomenon.
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 A Multimodal Transportation System

• A concept of coordinated strategy:

– Supply Management
– Demand Management
– Land-use Management

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Demand in Transportation

• The demand for transport is derived, it is not an end in itself.

• It is:
– Qualitative (Good? Bad?)
– Differentiated (time of day, type of cargo, journey of
purpose)
• Demand takes place over a space
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Supply in Transportation

• It is a service and not a good.

• Requires fixed asset
• Involves many players
• Investment is time consuming
• Politics has a role to play!
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Supply in Transportation

• What is wrong with providing free road space?

• Who will pay and how?
• What about the external costs?
– Pollution
– Congestion
– Road crash
Energy Consumption by Sector
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Coordinated Strategy

(Transit Oriented Development)

Pedestrian-friendly

Toll/ Telecommuting
Parking cost Providing Information

Increase auto occupancy

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Managing Transportation Supply

• Shift from capacity

improvements to
operational improvements

• More capacity ~ more new

roads ??

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Equilibration of Supply and Demand
• Transportation system is made up of
– Infrastructure
– Management system (e.g., rules, signals)
– Set of modes and their operators
• LOS/Speed (S) on the network
– S=f{Q,V,M}; Q=Capacity, V=Vol., M=Mgt. Sys
– Q=f{I,M}; I=Level of investment
– M may also redistribute capacity among infrastructure,
producing Q’
• Demand D=f{S, A}; A=Activities spread over space
• The task of transport planning is to forecast and manage the
evolution of these equilibrium points over time so that social welfare
is maximized 29
Equilibration of Supply and Demand
1

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Equilibration of Supply and Demand
1

1
1

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Managing Transportation Demand
• Demand management is any action or set of actions intended to influence
the intensity, timing, and spatial distribution of transportation demand.

• Strategies:

– alternative modes and/or services

– travel at non-congested hours.

• They can relieve spot congestion (e.g., at entrances and exits to large
employment areas) but not on freeways and major arterials.

• Exceptions: wide road pricing schemes. 32

Managing Land Use

Avoiding future transportation problems therefore requires careful attention

to zoning and land-use plans in coordination with the strategic provision and
pricing of transportation services to influence where development occurs. 33
Managing Land Use and Demand
• Ride-sharing program with preferential parking.
• Encouraging employers to incorporate enhanced ride-
sharing activities into the design and use of the site (a
land-use/development decision)
• Minimum number of parking for HOV and discourage
single occupancy vehicles
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Transportation Planning in Current Day Context
• Why and how do we expect future travel patterns to be
different?
– TRENDS of interest.

• What can we do to provide for these different needs?

– STRATEGIES or POLICY ACTIONS.

• What do we ultimately want in our future-year

transportation system?
– GOALS to be achieved 35
Transportation Planning
Trends of Interest Goals
• Socio-economic changes • Capacity
– Ageing of the population • Efficiency
– Decrease in household size
• Sustainability
– Increasing women in work force
– Suburban growth • Safety & Security
• Life-style changes • Equity
– Weekend travel & Non-work travel. • Health
• Vehicle ownership changes • Resources
– Number of vehicles / type of vehicles / age
– Financial/Institutional
of vehicles
• Information and Communication /Personnel
Technologies (ICT)
• Business process 36
– “Just-in-time” manufacturing
Transportation Planning from
System Perspective

A system is a group of interdependent and

interrelated components that form a complex
and unified whole intended to serve some
purpose through the performance of its
interacting parts.

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Transportation Planning from
System Perspective
• System Hierarchy
• System Purpose
• System Boundary
• System Components
• System Performance
• System Capacity
• System Control
• System Feedback 38
System: 1. System Hierarchy
• Transportation can be viewed as one system that related to
and is part of many other systems. This perspective leads to
important planning questions reflecting the interaction among
– (a) transportation and the other systems that help an
urban area function, and
– (b) transportation and higher-level systems, for example,
ecological or economic systems.
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System: 2. System Purpose
• The purpose of a transportation system can be defined in
a variety of ways and often reflects the perspective of
those involved in the planning process. The definition
could be narrowly targeted on the specific functioning of
the system or more broadly reflect the enabling influence
of transportation on other systems.
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System: 3. System Boundary

• One of the steps in any planning effort is to establish

the boundaries of the system being analyzed. These
boundaries will vary in relation to the problem
definition, decision domain, and scale of analysis.

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System: 4. System Components
• Multimodal transportation systems consist of numerous
components whose interaction becomes a key factor for
system effectiveness.
• These components include system users, transportation
modes, infrastructure such as networks, facilities, and
services; intermodal connections, and stakeholders.
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System: 6. System Capacity

• Transportation system capacity is an important

consideration in transportation planning and is the
focus of much technical analysis.

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System: 7. System Control

• The transportation system is usually planned,

designed, built, operated, and maintained by
organization and individuals with different objectives,
mandates, constituencies, and problem definitions.

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System: 8. System Feedback
• The most important feedback mechanism to the
users of a transportation system is the cost of travel,
determined in the market by the interaction of
supply and demand.

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Summarizing Transportation Planning
• Process of making decisions related to the future of the
transportation system.
• Focuses on
– Future demand for transportation
– Interaction among different transportation systems and facilities; the
relationships among land use, economic activity, and transportation
– Alternative ways of operating transportation system
– Social, economic, and environmental impacts of proposed transportation
systems
– Financial and institutional arrangements.

What is the role of modelling in transportation planning? 46

Models and their Roles
• A model is a simplified representation of a part of the
real world–the system of interest–which focuses on
certain elements considered important from a
particular point of view.
• Types:
– Physical Model
– Abstract Model (Mathematical Models)
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Models and Decision Making
• Decision making style
– Master plans
– Normative decision theory or Substantive
Rationality
– Behavioral decision theory
– Group decision making
– Adaptive decision making
– Mixed-mode decision making
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Master Plans
• Traditional approach of transportation and land-use
planning (1960s and 1970s)
• Guide govt. agencies about what can and can not be
done
• + informing everybody what will be done
• - seldom works: economic, social and technological
environments change fast
• - hard to fit new information essential for updating the
plan
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Normative decision theory or
Substantive Rationality
• ‘Systems approach’, quantification is essential,
complete set of alternatives and scenarios are
considered, total utility of each alternative is
calculated
• Often casts a decision problem into a mathematical
programming framework (1980s)
• - too intensive to the aspirations of the public; high
costs; analytical treatment of problem not suitable
for decision makers; often fails timely delivery of
results with acceptable accuracy 50
Behavioral Decision Theory
• Decision makers are not utility maximizers
• Search for better solutions is often stopped once an
acceptable one is found, i.e., marginal improvements
on current practice
• Chosen with the hope of moving towards a better
scale of the environment
• Modelling plays a more restricted role
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Group Decision Making
• Common for areas where committees rule.
• Decision making becomes a learning process; individuals
contribute their expertise and knowledge.
• Qualitative, quantitative and forecasts are combined but
not in any systematic way.
• Steering groups are at times set up to guide and advise
on implementation of major modelling exercises.
• - views of persuasive/powerful members may
predominate beyond intrinsic value.

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Adaptive Decision Making
• Similar to group decision making but recognizes the
interaction between pressure groups, none holding complete
decision making power.
• Negotiation and compromise are required to reach a decision.
• Common in legislative decision making and diplomacy.
• Transportation modelling plays a minor instrumental role.
• State-of-the-art techniques to model may be used not due to
its accuracy or sensitivity but due to its claim to render greater
value to the study results and hence power to its sponsors.
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Mixed-Mode Decision Making
• At present common in transport studies
• Uses analysis, persuasion, bargaining and political
strategies in different arenas and under different goals.
• Although goals are normally fixed, in this process goals
and arenas often shift as part of decision making
process.
• Modelling often plays an important role.
• Model must be flexible and have capacity for
adaptation, influence of new variables and quick
analysis of innovative policies and designs.
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Decision Making Contexts

Our Syllabus

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Florian et al. (1988)
Modelling Approaches
• Decision making context
• Accuracy required
• Data availability
• State of the art in modelling
– Behavioral richness
– Mathematical and computer tractability
– Algorithms
• Resource available for study
• Data processing requirements
• Trainings and skills
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Issues in Transportation Modelling
• General modelling issues
– Role of theory and data (deductive and inductive)
• How many population strata or types of people do we need
to achieve a good representation and understanding of a
problem?
• In how much detail do we need to measure certain variables
to replicate a given phenomenon?
• Space is crucial in transport; at what level of detail do we
need to code the origin and destination of travelers to model
their trip making behavior?
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Issues in Transportation Modelling
• General modelling issues
– Model Specification
• Model structure
• Functional form
• Variable specification
• Model calibration, validation and use

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Issues in Transportation Modelling

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Issues in Transportation Modelling

• Aggregate and disaggregate modelling

• Cross-section and Time series

• Revealed and stated preference

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Classical Transportation Model

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Continuous Transportation Planning

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Continuous Transportation Planning

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Theoretical basis vs. Experience
• Power of theory
– Stable results
– Consistency
– Confidence in forecasting
– Understand model properties and develop
improved algorithms for their solution
– Understand assumptions
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Theoretical basis vs. Experience
• Weakness of theory
– Sometimes too complex
– Data requirements
– What if we have real data?
– There is a limit to the depth theory can go
– Same theory for many models!

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Paper-Based vs. Computer Based Planning
• Transportation planning plays a fundamental role in the state, region or
community’s vision for its future.
• It can make a balance between transportation supply and demand and
thereby enhance efficiency of transportation system.
• In the modern era, model oriented computer-based transportation
planning approach has emerged with great success.
• Computer-based model oriented transportation planning conducts a wide
range of scenario analysis and helps develop comprehensive strategies.
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 Benefits of Computer Based Planning
• The main benefits in the use of computer-based models in
transportation planning are:
– Provides ability to mathematically represent the causal effects
– Enables to apply complex theoretical knowledge and practical experience to
develop a transportation model
– Allows to change the inputs and produce desired outputs
– More data are being available digitally
– Can be updated over time, shared with stakeholders
– IT has become more accessible and affordable

We need the right software and hardware 67

 Paper-Based vs. Computer Based Planning
• Even though technology is available,
classical paper-based transportation
planning practices still exist around the
globe, specially in the developing world.
• Such practices often get limited to listing
highway and transit capital projects.
• Therefore, transportation solutions in the
developing countries often evolve in an
unplanned manner.
• Issues become more dire for small
townships
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 Challenges in Computer Based Planning
• The main constraints in the use of computer-based models in
transportation planning today are not limited to technical issues.
• They are:
– Availability of data
– Lack of theoretical knowledge and practical experience to develop a
transportation model
– Required organizational changes to operate, update and maintain the model
– Staffing issues

Just having the right software and hardware is never the solution 69
Model-based Planning
• We need a transportation-planning procedure
(mathematical model system) that
– is sensitive to relevant TRENDS
– enables evaluation of different STRATEGIES or POLICY
ACTIONS under consideration
– ultimately helps us assess what we need to do to
achieve our GOALS for our study region &
– is operational !!
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 What are we learning?
• The travel pattern/demand/needs for an urban region (city) in the future is
going to be different when compared to the present-day situation
• Planning will help us put a transportation system in place which can take care of
these needs
• In this course, we will answer:
– How do we quantify the future needs?
– How do we evaluate whether alternate options or strategies will help us achieve our
objectives?
– How do we describe human travel behavior using statistical techniques?
– What are the state-of-the-practice and state-of-the-art approaches to answering the
above questions?
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 Course Outcomes
• At the end of this course you will be able to:
– Understand, critique, and use the state-of-the practice approach for transportation
modeling and planning
– Explain the meaning of mathematical models in simple English Appreciate the
power and limitations of statistical modeling

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 Thank You!

• Contact me
– Email: [email protected]