Winter, 2020

CEE 6505
Transportation Planning

Lecture 06

Moinul Hossain
CEE, IUT

1
 Content
• Definition and notation
• Common methods in Trip Distribution
– Growth-Factor Model
– Synthetic Model (Gravity)
– Entropy Maximization
• Calibration of Gravity Models
• Practical Considerations
 5 Introduction
Trip Distribution
• Where will the generated trips go?

• A distribution model tries to estimate the number of trips in

each of the matrix cells on the basis of any information
available

• Travel pattern can be represented in two ways (at least):

– Trip matrix

– Production-Attraction (P-A) basis

3
 5 Introduction
Trip Distribution
• Trip matrix
– stores the trips made from an Origin to a Destination during a
particular time period

– Often called O-D matrix

– can be disaggregated by person type, purpose or the activity

undertaken at each end of the trip

– Disaggregation is needed for assignment models

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 5 Introduction
Trip Distribution (contd…)
• P-A basis
– considers the factors that generate and attract trips

– Home generally being treated as the ‘producing’ end, and Work, Shop
etc. as the ‘attracting’ end.

– cover a longer time span than O-D matrix (why? Hint: on a P-A basis
the Home end will generate two school trips and the School end will
attract two school trips during the day)

– Even the combination of intercept and home interview surveys will fail
to produce matrices where all cells have been sampled

– Modelling is required!
5
 5 Introduction
Trip Distribution (contd…)
• OD-matrix methods are normally for short-term modelling and
P-A basis methods are for long-term modelling
• In general trip distribution is treated as an aggregated
modelling problem.
• However, methods exist to do the modelling in disaggregated
level (up to individual level).
• Common methods:
– Growth-Factor Methods
– Gravity Distribution Model
– Entropy-Maximizing Approach
– Other locally used methods (e.g., Detroit method)

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 5.1 Definitions and Notations
• Trip Matrix - a two dimensional array of cells where rows and
columns represent each of the z zones in the study area

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 5.1 Definitions and Notations
• Cells of each row i contain the trips originating in that zones
having destinations in the corresponding columns (j).
• The main diagonal corresponds to intra-zone trips
• Tij = the number of trips between origin i and destination j; the
total array is {Tij} or T.
• Oi = the total number of trips originating in zone i
• Dj = the total number of trips attracted to zone j
• Pi = the number of trips produced or generated in a zone i
• Qj = those attracted to zone j
• We shall use lower case letters, tij, oi, and dj to indicate
observations from a sample from an earlier study or base year.
• Capital letters represent the target year.
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 5.1 Definitions and Notations
• The matrices can be further disaggregated, for example, by
person type (n) and/or by mode (k)
• Tknij = trips from i to j by mode k and person type n;
• Okni = the total number of trips originating at zone i by mode k
and person type n
• Summation over sub- or superscripts will be indicated
implicitly by omission

• pkij = the proportion of trips from i to j by mode k;

• ckij = the cost of travelling between i and j by mode k.
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 5.1 Definitions and Notations
• The sum of the trips in a row should equal the total number of
trips emanating from that zone;
• The sum of the trips in a column should correspond to the
number of trips attracted to that zone
• The following relationships must be fulfilled:

• Doubly constrained model: reliable information is available to

estimate both Oi and Dj and the model satisfy both conditions
• Singly constrained model: information only about one of these
constraints is available (in most cases Oi. Why?) 10
 5.1 Definitions and Notations
• Generalized cost of travel - a measure combining all the main
attributes related to the disutility of a journey.
• The cost element may be considered in terms of distance, time
or money units.
• This is typically a linear function of the attributes of the
journey weighted by coefficients which attempt to represent
their relative importance as perceived by the traveller.
• One possible representation of this for mode k is (omitting
superscript k for simplicity)

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5.1 Definitions and Notations

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 5.1 Definitions and Notations
• Generalized cost of travel can be in money unit or time unit
• If it is in money unit (a5=1) then a1 is interpreted as the value
of time (or more precisely the value of in-vehicle time)
• a2 and a3 would be the values of walking and waiting time
• In general, a2 and a3 are taken as 2-3 times higher than a1
• a1 . . . 6 are often provided externally to the modelling
process, sometimes specified by government. This presumes
stability and transferability of values for which there is, so far,
only limited evidence.
• What are the theoretical and practical advantages in
measuring generalized cost in time units? (Hint: effect of
income levels increasing)

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 5.2 Growth-Factor Methods
• Growth-factor methods update the trip matrix by using a
growth factor – one for the whole matrix or a different one for
each zone.
• Three methods:
– Uniform growth factor
– Singly constrained
– Doubly constrained
• Uniform growth factor: If the only information available is
about a general growth rate τ for the whole of the study area,
then we can only assume that it will apply to each cell in the
matrix as:

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 Example: Uniform Growth Factor
Example 5.A Trips originating from zone 1,2,3 of a study area are
78,92 and 82 respectively and those terminating at zones 1,2,3
are given as 88,96 and 78 respectively. If the growth factor is 1.3
and the cost matrix is as shown below, find the expanded origin-
constrained growth trip table.

Base year trip matrix

1 2 3 𝒐𝒊
1 20 30 28 78
2 36 32 24 92
3 22 22 34 82
𝒅𝒋 88 96 78 252
 Example: Uniform Growth Factor
Solution 5.A
The equation of uniform growth rate is
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑓 × 𝑡𝑖𝑗
where f is the uniform growth factor 𝑡𝑖𝑗 is the previous total
number of trips, 𝑇𝑖𝑗 is the expanded total number of trips.
Given growth factor = 1.3, Therefore, multiplying the growth
factor with each of the cells in the matrix gives the solution as
shown below
1 2 3 𝑶𝒊
1 20×1.3=26 39 36.4 101.4
2 46.8 41.6 31.2 119.6
3 28.6 44.2 33.8 106.2
𝑫𝒋 101.4 124.8 101.4 327.6
 5.2 Growth-Factor Methods
Example 5.1 Consider the simple four-by-four base-year trip matrix of table
below. If the growth in traffic in the study area is expected to be of 20% then
calculate the future trip distribution matrix.

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 5.2 Growth-Factor Methods
Example 5.1

Answer

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 5.2 Growth-Factor Methods
5.2.2 Singly Constrained Growth-Factor Methods
• information is available on the expected growth in trips
originating in or attracted to each zone.
• Origin specific (τi) or destination specific (τj) growth factors
can be employed to obtain the trip matrix:

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 5.2 Growth-Factor Methods
Example 5.2 Target year trip generation along with base year trip matrix is
given below. Derive the trip matrix for design year.

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 5.2 Growth-Factor Methods
Solution 5.2
The equation of uniform growth rate is
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝜏𝑖𝑗 . 𝑡𝑖𝑗
Here, 𝜏𝑖 = 𝑂𝑖 Τ𝑜𝑖 , i.e., =400/355=1.13
Hence, 𝑇12 = 1.13 x 5 = 5.6

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 5.2 Growth-Factor Methods
5.2.3 Doubly Constrained Growth Factors
• information is available on the future number of trips
originating and terminating in each zone, i.e., different growth
rates for trips in and out of each zone and consequently having
two sets of growth factors for each zone, say τ i and Ƭj.
• A poor solution is using an average growth factor:

• Fratar (US) or Furness (elsewhere) method introduces two

balancing factors as Ai and Bj as follows:

• Or, incorporating the growth rates into new variables ai and bj:
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 5.2 Growth-Factor Methods
5.2.3 Doubly Constrained Growth Factors (contd…)
• Steps in solution:

• Condition for convergence:

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 5.2 Growth-Factor Methods
5.2.3 Doubly Constrained Growth Factors (contd…)
• Perfect convergence is not common. But error must be lower
than the accepted threshold obtained by:

• This method is often called a ‘bi-proportional algorithm’

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 Ex. Doubly constrained growth factor model
Example 5.B The base year trip matrix for a study area consisting of three
zones is given below. The productions from the zone 1,2 and 3 for the horizon
year is expected to grow to 98, 106, and 122 respectively. The attractions
from these zones are expected to increase to 102, 118, 106 respectively.
Compute the trip matrix for the horizon year using doubly constrained growth
factor model using Furness method.
Base year trip matrix

1 2 3 𝑜𝑖
1 20 30 28 78
2 36 32 24 92
3 22 34 26 82
𝑑𝑗 88 96 78 252
 Ex. Doubly constrained growth factor model
From,
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑡𝑖𝑗 × 𝑎𝑖 × 𝑏𝑗 , assuming 𝑏𝑗 =1.0

1 2 3 𝒐𝒊
1 20× 1.26 = 30 × 1.26 28 × 98
25.2 = 37.8 1.26 =35.28
2 36 × 1.15 32 × 1.15 24 × 1.15 106
= 41.4 = 36.8 = 27.6
3 22 × 1.49 34 × 1.49 26 × 1.49 122
= 32.78 = 50.66 = 38.74
𝒅𝟏𝒋 99.38 125.26 101.62
𝑫𝒋 102 118 106
 Ex. Doubly constrained growth factor model
𝐷𝑗
Now, 𝑏𝑗 = and 𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑡𝑖𝑗 × 𝑏𝑗 , here
𝑑𝑗1

102
𝑏1 = = 1.03
99.38
118
𝑏2 = = 0.94
125.26
106
𝑏3 = = 1.04
101.62
 Ex. Doubly constrained growth factor model
So,
1 2 3 𝑜𝑖 𝑂𝑖
1 25.2×1.03= 37.8 ×0.94= 35.28 × 1.04 98.18 98
25.96 35.53 = 36.69
2 41.4×1.03= 36.8 ×0.94= 27.6 × 105.93 106
42.64 34.59 1.04=28.70

3 32.78 ×1.0 50.66 ×0.94 38.74 × 1.04 121.67 122

3=33.76 =47.62 = 40.29

𝑏𝑗 1.03 0.94 1.04

𝐷𝑗 102 118 106
Ex. Doubly constrained growth factor model

1 2 3 𝑜𝑖 𝑂𝑖
1 25.96 35.53 36.69 98.18 98
2 42.64 34.59 28.70 105.93 106
3 33.76 47.62 40.29 121.67 122
𝑑𝑗 102.36 117.74 105.68 325.78
𝐷𝑗 102 118 106 326
 Ex. Doubly constrained growth factor model
Now, we can calculate the error:

Error = ෎|𝑂𝑖 − 𝑜𝑖 | + ෍|𝐷𝑗 − 𝑑𝑗 |

So, error = |98.18-98|+|105.93-106|+|121.67-122|+|102.36-

102|+|117.74-118|+|105.68-106| = 1.32
 5.2 Growth-Factor Methods
Example 5.2 Target year trip generation and attraction along with base year
trip matrix is given below. Derive the trip matrix for design year.

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 5.2 Growth-Factor Methods
Example 5.1

Answer

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 5.2 Growth-Factor Methods
5.2.4 Advantages and Limitations of Growth-Factor Methods
• Advantages
– Simple to understand
– make direct use of observed trip matrices and forecasts of trip-end
growth
• Limitations
– Only suitable for short-term horizon
– the methods do not take into account changes in transport costs due to
improvements (or new congestion) in the network
– Heavily depends on the accuracy of the base-year trip matrix
– if parts of the base-year matrix are unobserved, they will remain so in
the forecasts
– Not common to use in the analysis of policy options involving new
modes, new links, pricing policies and new zones
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 5.3 Synthetic or Gravity Models
5.3.1 The Gravity Distribution Model
• Synthetic models estimate trips for each cell in the matrix
without directly using the observed trip pattern

• Proves its efficiency when important changes in the network

take place.

• They start from assumptions about group trip making

behaviour and the way this is influenced by external factors
such as total trip ends and distance travelled.

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 5.3 Synthetic or Gravity Models
5.3.1 The Gravity Distribution Model
• The best known of these models is the gravity model,
originally generated from an analogy with Newton’s
gravitational law as:

• Pi and Pj are the populations of the towns of origin and

destination, dij is the distance between i and j, and α is a
proportionality factor (with units trips·distance2/population2)
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 5.3 Synthetic or Gravity Models
5.3.1 The Gravity Distribution Model
• Gravity model can be generalized by assuming that the effect
of distance or ‘separation’ could be modelled better by a
decreasing function, to be specified, of the distance or travel
cost between the zones as:

• where f(cij) is a generalized function of the travel costs with

one or more parameters for calibration
• f(cij) is often called ‘deterrence function’ because it represents
the disincentive to travel as distance (time) or cost increases
• α is the single proportionality factor
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 5.3 Synthetic or Gravity Models
5.3.1 The Gravity Distribution Model
• Popular versions of the function f(cij) are:

• First two each has one parameter for calibration.

• Third one has two parameters for calibration (which ones?)
• These parameters are estimated so that the results from the model
reproduce, as closely as possible, the trip length (cost) distribution
(TLD) of the observations
• the greater the number of parameters, the easier it is to obtain a
closer fit with the sampled trip length distribution
• Assumption: β does not change in future. 37
 5.3 Synthetic or Gravity Models
5.3.1 The Gravity Distribution Model
• Graphical forms of popular versions of the function f(cij):

38
 5.3 Synthetic or Gravity Models
5.3.2 Singly and Doubly Constrained Models
• The single proportionality factor α is replaced by two sets of
balancing factors Ai and Bj as:

• Optionally, further, subsume Oi and Dj as:

• Now,

• But,

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 5.3 Synthetic or Gravity Models
5.3.2 Singly and Doubly Constrained Models (contd…)
• Hence,

• And, similarly:

• For singly constrained models, one of the balancing factors (Bj

for origin-constrained and or Ai for destination constrained) is
assumed to be 1.0 40
 5.3 Synthetic or Gravity Models
5.3.2 Singly and Doubly Constrained Models (contd…)
• Typical trip length distribution (TLD) in urban area:

In order to calibrate deterrence

functions, the parameters are
estimated so that the results from the
model reproduce, as closely as
possible, the trip length (cost)
distribution (TLD) of the observations

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 5.3 Synthetic or Gravity Models
• The deterrence function for cost can also be as:

• Where:
– travel costs are aggregated into a small number of cost ranges or cost
bins, indicated by a superscript m
– Fm is the mean value for cost bin m
– δmij is equal to 1 if the cost of travelling between i and j falls in the
range m, and equal to 0 otherwise
• The greater flexibility of the cost-bin formulation permits an
even better fit
• Assumption: the same TLD will be maintained in the future; a
similar but more stringent to requiring β to be the same for
the base and the forecasting years
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 Gravity Model
Example 5.3 The productions from zone 1, 2 and 3 are 98, 106,
122 and attractions to zone 1,2 and 3 are 102, 118, 106. The
1
function is 𝑓(𝑐𝑖𝑗 ) = 2
𝑐𝑖𝑗

The cost matrix is as shown below

1.0 1.2 1.8

1.2 1.0 1.5
1.8 1.5 1.0
 Gravity Model
Solution 5.3
Steps of solving Gravity model
1. Set 𝐵𝑗 = 1, find 𝐴𝑖 using
1
𝐴𝑖 =
෍ 𝐵𝑗 𝐷𝑗 𝑓(𝑐𝑖𝑗 ൯
𝑗

2. Find 𝐵𝑗 using equation

1
𝐵𝑗 =
෍ 𝐴𝑖 𝑂𝑖 𝑓(𝑐𝑖𝑗 ൯
𝑖
 Gravity Model
3. Compute the error as

Error = ෌ |𝑂𝑖 − 𝑂𝑖1 | + ෍|𝐷𝑗 − 𝐷𝑗1 |

A clear steps of Gravity model calculation is given from next slide

 Gravity Model
The cost matrix is
1.0 1.2 1.8
1.2 1.0 1.5
1.8 1.5 1.0
1
The function 𝑓(𝑐𝑖𝑗 ) = 2 can be written as
𝑐𝑖𝑗

1 1 1
12 1.22 1.82
1 1 1 1 0.69 0.31
= 0.69 1 0.44
1.22 12 1.52
0.31 0.44 1
1 1 1
1.82 1.52 12
 Gravity Model
𝑓(𝑐𝑖𝑗 ) 1
1 𝐴𝑖 =
i j 𝐵𝑗 𝐷𝑗 𝐵𝑗 𝐷𝑗 𝑓(𝑐𝑖𝑗 ൯ ∑ 𝐵𝑗 𝐷𝑗 𝑓(𝑐𝑖𝑗 ൯
෍ 𝐵𝑗 𝐷𝑗 𝑓(𝑐𝑖𝑗 ൯
= 2
𝑐𝑖𝑗 𝑗

1 1 102 1 102
1 2 1 118 0.69 81.42 216.28 0.00462
3 1 106 0.31 32.86
1 1 102 0.69 70.38
2 2 1 118 1 118 235.02 0.00425
3 1 106 0.44 46.64
1 1 102 0.31 31.62
3 2 1 118 0.44 51.92 189.54 0.00527
3 1 106 1 106
 Gravity Model
𝑓(𝑐𝑖𝑗 ) 𝑩𝒋
∑ 1
j i 𝐴𝑖 𝑂𝑖 1 𝐴𝑖 𝑂𝑖 𝑓(𝑐𝑖𝑗 ൯ =
= 2 𝐴𝑖 𝑂𝑖 𝑓(𝑐𝑖𝑗 ൯
෍𝐴𝑖 𝑂𝑖 𝑓(𝑐𝑖𝑗 ൯
𝑐𝑖𝑗
1 0.00462 98 1 0.4523
1 2 0.00425 106 0.69 0.3117 0.9618 1.0397
3 0.00527 122 0.31 0.1978
1 0.00462 98 0.69 0.3124
2 2 0.00425 106 1 0.4505 1.0458 0.9562
3 0.00527 122 0.44 0.2829
1 0.00462 98 0.31 0.1404
3 2 0.00425 106 0.44 0.1982 0.9815 1.0188
3 0.00527 122 1 0.6429
 Gravity Model
𝑇11 = 0.00462 × 98 × 1.0397 × 102 × 1 = 48.01
𝑇12 = 0.00462 × 98 × 0.9562 × 118 × 0.69 = 35.24
𝑇13 = 0.00462 × 98 × 1.018 × 106 × 0.31 = 15.157
𝑇21 = 0.00425 × 106 × 1.0397 × 102 × 0.69 = 32.96
𝑇22 = 0.00425 × 106 × 0.9562 × 118 × 1 = 50.83
𝑇23 = 0.00425 × 106 × 1.018 × 106 × 0.44 = 21.40
𝑇31 = 0.00527 × 122 × 1.0397 × 102 × 0.31 = 21.14
𝑇32 = 0.00527 × 122 × 0.9562 × 118 × 0.44 = 31.92
𝑇33 = 0.00527 × 122 × 1.018 × 106 × 1 = 69.43
 Gravity Model
Final table
1 2 3 𝐴𝑖 𝑂𝑖 𝑂𝑖1

1 48.01 35.24 15.157 0.00462 98 98.407

2 32.96 50.83 21.40 0.00425 106 105.19
3 21.14 31.919 69.43 0.00527 122 122.489
𝐵𝑗 1.0397 0.9562 1.0188
𝐷𝑗 102 118 106
𝐷𝑗1 102.11 117.98 105.99
 Gravity Model

Error = ෎|𝑂𝑖 − 𝑜𝑖 | + ෍|𝐷𝑗 − 𝑑𝑗 |

Error = |98-98.407|+|106-105.19|+|122-122.489|+|102-
102.11|+|118-117.98|+|106-105.99|= 2.03